ML19330B104

Forwards Map,Overlay,Table & Methodology Basis Re Emergency Evacuation Time Estimates Per NRC 800702 Request

ML19330B104
Person / Time
Site:	Satsop
Issue date:	07/24/1980
From:	Renberger D WASHINGTON PUBLIC POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM
To:	Eisenhut D Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
NUDOCS 8007300344
Download: ML19330B104 (11)

Text

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P P W shington Public Power Supply System A JOINT OPERATING AGENCY S

S . _ . . . . . . , _ . . . . . _ . . _ _ . . . _ ._ ..._......... . _ ....... _

July 24, 1980 Mr. D. G. Eisenhut, Director Division of Licensing Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulations U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C. 20055

Subject:

Emergency Evacuation Times In response to your request dated July 2, 1980 concerning emergency evacuation times we are submitting the enclosed map, overlay, table and basis of met.nodology regarding estimates for evacuation of vari-ous areas around WNP-3/5 located in Grays Harbor County.

Very truly yours, D. L. Renberger Assistant Director Technology jm Enclosures D

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POPULATION, POPULATION DENSITY & EVACUATION TIMES WNP 3/5 Residential Population Estimated Distance Sector Population Density Evacuation Time

.(For Populated Areas (Includes Adjacent Within Sector) Inner Sector Evacuation Time) 2 mi #1 83 persons 15 persons /mi2 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> 2 mi #2 0 0 0 2-5 mi #1 3075 persons 185 persons /mi2 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 2-5 mi #2 239 persons 20 persons /mi2 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> 2-5 mi #3 6 persons 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> 2-5 mi #4 631 persons 50 persons /mi2 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> 5-10 mi #1 1011 persons 17 persons /mi2 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 5-10 mi #2 1150 persons 20 persons /mi2 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> 5-10 mi #3 6 persons 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> 5-10 mi #4 4373 persons 150 persons /mi 2 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br />

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EVACUATION TIMES WNP 3/5 Question 1 Two estimates are requested in each of the areas defined in item 1 for a general evacuation of the population (not including special facilities).

A best estimate is required and an adverse weather estimate is required for movement of the population.

Response

Attached is a table of population densities and esscuation times. A map with an overlay of the 2, 5, and 10 mile sectors w. 41 times indicated is also attached. The evacuation times are for normal weather conditions and include the time required to shut down operations such as f arms and mobilize the residents.

Adverse weather conditions such as a flood could make evacuation diffi-  !

cul t. The Fuller area (0 - 2 miles north of plant site) floods almost l every year with an average of approximately five days per year when the only egress route is through the plant site. Evacuation of the 83 resi-dents of this area could, in the event of a flood coinciding with a general emergency requiring evacuation, be accomplished via alternate ,

methods such as boats--which are used now to some extent, or helicopters, '

or by the improvement of roads prior to plant start-up. These alterna- '

tives will be investigated ard the solution explained in the emergency plan. Adverse weather conditions due to hurricanes, tornadoes, snow storms, etc., have been analyzed by the EPA to determine their effect on  ;

evacuation times. This has been reported in EPA document 520/6-74-002,

" Evacuation Risks - An Evaluation" which states:

" Data analysis and literature reviewed in the bibliography do not reveal any correlation between time of day, weather conditions, popu-lation size, area size, area type, road conditions, time lapse before onset of incident, use of plans, or the nature of the incident and the time required to evacuate a population group."

For each of the sectors shown on the table and the overlay to the map, a sunnary follows. The evacuation times agree with the estimates of the local Director of Emergency Services who was contacted in regard to this request.

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2 Mile Radius, Sector 1 83 persons live within two miles of the Site. The population density is 15 persons per square mile. The road leading from this area to the free-way, four miles away, is paved. An estimate of one hour evacuation time is given.

2 Mile Radius. Sector 2 This mountainous area is unpopulated.

2-5 Mile Radius, Sector 1 The major population center of this sector is Elma, with a population of 2,227. The total sector population is 3,075. The average population density is 185 persons per square mile. The freeway runs through Elma and the center of this sector. An estimate of five hours time to evacu-ate is given. This includes the evacuation of the adjacent inner sector.

2-5 Mile Radius, Sector 2 The population of this sector is 239 persons, with a population density of 20 persons per square mile. The freeway runs through a corner of this sector. An estimate of two hours time to evacuate is given.

2-5 Mile Radius, Sector 3 There are only six persons living in this sector. A time estimate 'of one hour to evacuate is given.

2-5 Mile Radius, Sector 4 631 people live in this sector which has a population density of 50 per-sons per square mile. The freeway runs across the corner of this sector. An evacuation time of two hours, including evacuating the adja-cent inner sector, is given.

5-10 Mile Radius, Sector 1 1,011 people live in this sector which has a population density of 17 persons per square mile. Several paved roads cross this sector. It is estimated that it would take five hours to evacuate this sector, includ-ing the adjacent inner sector.

5-10 Mile Radius, Sector 2 1,150 people live in this sector which is crossed by the freeway. The population density is 20 persons per square mile. It is estimated that an evacuation, including the adjacent inner sector, would take three hcurs.

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5-10 Mile Radius, Sector 3 With only six persons in this sector, an evacuation time of one hour is given.

5-10 Mile Radius, Sector 4 The major city within this sector is Montesano with a population of 2,847. The entire sector, which is crossed by the freeway, has 4,373 people with a density of 150 persons per square mile for the populated part of the sector. An evacuation time of five hours is given. This includes evacuation of the adjacent inner sector.

Question 2 The total time required to evacuate special facilities (e.g., hospitals  !

within each area must be specified (best estimate and adverse weather).

Response

There are no hospitals located within the 10 mile EPZ for the WNP-3/5 Site. There are four small health care facilities:

Beechwood Nursing Home, which is in Elma approximately four miles from the Site with a 35 bed capacity;

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Oakhurst Convalescent Center, also in Elma, with a 180 bed capacity; Edgewood Manor Nursing Home, which is in Montesano, approximately eight miles from the Site with a 37 bed capacity; Woodland Terrace Nursing Home, also in Montesano, with a 30 bed capacity. ,

The only other special facility within the EPZ is the Grays Harbor County Jail, with a capacity of 17, located in Montesano approximately eight miles from the Site.

Due to the small size of these facilities, the time to evacuate the l people within them would not increase the times already given for the '

evacuation of the population within the sectors containing these facili-ties (5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br />).

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Question 3 The time required for confirmation of evacuation should be indicated.

Confinnation times may consider special instructions to the public (e.g.,

tying a handkerchief to a door or gate to indicate the occupant has left the premises).

Response

Present plans are to notify residents to evacuate by use of sirens for the major towns, and by the use of the public telephone system for other areas. Using these methods, evacuation would be considered confirmed when the sheriff checks within the town or when the notification call is completed. These confirmation times are included in the estimates given.

Question 4 Where plans and prompt notification systems have not been put in place

-for areas out to about 10 miles, estimates of the times required to evac-uate until such measures are in place for the plume exposure emergency planning zone (EPZ) should also be given. Notification times greater than 15 minutes should be included in the evacuation times as footnoted to indicate the notification time.

Response

Plans and methods of prompt notification will be in place prior'to the fuel load of WNP-3.

Question 5 Where special evacuation problems are identified (e.g., in high popula-tion density areas), specify alternative protective actions, such as sheltering, which would reduce exposures and the effectiveness of these measures.

Response

No area is identified where special evacuation problems may exist. As can be seen on the attached table and map overlay, all areas within the 10 mile EPZ have low populations.

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Question 6 A short background document should be submitted giving the methods used to make the estimates and the assumptions made including the routes and methods of transportation used. This document should also note the agreement or areas of disagreement with principal local officials regard-ing these estimates.

Response

Private vehicles will be the primary means of transportation for evac-uees. Available types of mass-transportation include school buses and trucks. The County Emergency Services Director can arrange for su;h transportation, if required.

In calculating these estimated time's to evacuate, the following factors were considered.

1. Total population of the sector.

2. Population density. EPA 520/6-74-002 " Evacuation Risks - An Evaluation", gives the following formula for evacuation time:

Log (hours) = 1.3054 - 0.21243 Log (persons /sgiz e mile).

The formula indicates that as the density decreases, the time to evacuate increases. This is due to slower rural communication.

Also, shutdown and mobilization times for farms, are longer than in densely populated areas. The majority of the 10 mile EPZ for the WNP #3/5 Site is rural agricultural and forest land use area.

The time to. evacuate estimated by use of this formula includes time of notification which, for purposes of this communication, are not included in the time estimate and therefore have been subtracted.

This formula is only valid for densities above about 15 persons per square mile and was not used in those sectors with population densities below this.

3. Availability of roads. EPA 520/6-74-002 estimates indicate-that 1,000 vehicles could be moved per lane per hour, and that as many as 4,000 cars per lane per hour have been observed dur-ing actual evacuations.

4. Travel distance and time. EPA 520/1-75-001, " Manual of ?rotec-tive Action Guides and Protective Actions for Nuclear Incidents", Table 1.5 " Approximate Range Time Segments Making Up the Evacuation Time". Gives estimates of travel and mobili-zation times.

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EVACUATION ROUTES 2 Mile Radius, Sector 1 These people would proceed north on a paved road four miles to the free-way and then proceed either east or west, depending on which way the plume is moving.

2 Mile Radius, Sector 2 This mountainous area is unpopulated.

5 Mile Radius, Sector 1 The majority of persons in this sector live in the town of Elma. There is good access to the freeway, which runs through the center of this sector. Depending on which way the plume is traveling, these people would be directed either west to Hoquiam, 20 miles from the Site, or east to Olympia, 27 miles from the site.

5 Mile Radius, Sector 2 i The majority of the residents of this sector live near the main road, Federal Highway 12, which leads to Interstate 5. This paved road runs through the sector and would be used to evacuate the residents to the east toward Olympia or to the south toward Centralia (30 miles from .WNP

1. 3/5 Site).

5 Mile Radli:s, Sector 3 This is a mountainous region. The six persons living here would be evac-uated to the east toward Olympia via a paved road which runs through the area. This area also has several all-weather dirt roads allowing for alternate routes of egress.

5 Mile Radius, Sector 4 These people would proceed west to Hoquiam on the freeway which runs I through this sector and has good access.

10 Mile Radius, Sector 1 There are two main roads exiting from this sector; one road goes to the north toward Shelton, 22 miles from the site. The other road runs to the east toward Olympia. Depending on wind direction, residents of this sector would use one or the othe- of these roads.

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10 Mile Radius, Sector 2 There are several small towns in this sector lying near Federal High-

< way 12 that leads to Interstate 5. As with the adjacent inner sector, residents would be evacuated toward Olympia or Centralia from this sector.

10 Mile Radius, Sector 3 This is a mountainous region. The six persons living here would be evac-uated to the west toward Hoquiam.

10 Mile Radius, Sector 4 The majority of the populace of this sector live in Montesano and would be evacuated to Hoquiam via the freeway which runs through the sector with good access.

These evacuation routes and relocation destinations are in agreement with Mr. William Longford, Director of Emergency Services, Grays Harbor County.

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