ML20236X253
| ML20236X253 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Satsop |
| Issue date: | 11/20/1987 |
| From: | Sorensen G WASHINGTON PUBLIC POWER SUPPLY SYSTEM |
| To: | NRC OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATION & RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (ARM) |
| References | |
| GO3-87-359, NUDOCS 8712090074 | |
| Download: ML20236X253 (74) | |
Text
{{#Wiki_filter:, , __ _ _ l .; c > p. 1 ;: a. Washington Public Power Supply System Box 1223 Elma, Washington 98541 1223 '(206)482 4428' November '20,1987 iG03-87-359 Docket No. 50-508 m .. U.- 5.. Nuclear. Regulatory Commission Atter: tion: . Document Control Desk Washington, D..C. 20555
Subject:
NUCLEAR PROJECT N0. 3 ' RESOLUTION OF KEY LICENSING ISSUES RESPONSES TO QUESTIONS ON WESTERN WASHINGTON SEISMICITY
Reference:
NRC letter, R. M. Novak to R. L. Ferguson, subject
" Request for Additional Information on WNP-3 Safety Review," dated May 3',,1983.
In accordance' with our Geosciences Program that was discussed with. the NRC Staff in' a meeting on July 8,1987, 'we 'cre , submitting responses' to requests for additional information that were transmitted by the reference (230.3, 230.4, and 230,5). Our Geosciences Program is proceeding and we will soon be submitting responses to your questions dealing with seismic hazard and ground motion (230.1, 230.2, and 230.6)..
'B712090074 871120 PDR ADOCK 05000508 A PDR L: .j
o-l' I- i i U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission G03-87-339 Attention: Document Control Desk November 20,.1987 Page Two If you have any questions, please contact Mr. D. W. Coleman, WNP-3 Project Licensing Manager, (206) 482-4428, Ext. S436. g- f w-G. C. orensen, Manager Regul tory Programs DWC/cae Attachments cc: Mr. J. A'. Adams, NESCO
'Mr. M. F. Barnoski, Combustion Engineering Mr. R. M. Boucher, Pacific Power & Light Co.
Mr. W. L. Bryan, Washington Water Power Co. Mr. R. E. Dyer, Portland General Electric Co. Mr. W. J. Finnegan, Puget Sound Power & Light Co. Mr. R. Gaudio, Ebasco - New York Mr. J. R. Lewis, BPA Mr. 'J. B. Martin, Administrator, Region'V Mr. S. G. Prussman, Ebasco - New York Mr. N. S. Reynolds, Bishop, Cook', Purcell & Reynolds Mr. D. Smithpeter, BPA Ms. R. M. Taylor, Ebasco - Elma Mr. G. Vissing, NRC
- Document Control Desk - U. S. NRC
- 37. copies of the attachments
q
'0'uesti6n No. '
230.3 (SRP The depth and configuration of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate 2.5.2.1, is critical to the calculation of the effect of the Benioff zone
- 2.5.2.3) earthquake at the site, a) Attention is ' called ' to . FSAR Figure 2. 5 -31 . No location errors are .specified for most of the earthquakes plotted !
thereon, especially for those occurring in a region which i projects . to the southwest of Olympia on section AA and j particularly for depth of focus. Referring to Crosson J (1972),. Figure 6, the : site and most of. the area in which these earthquakes occur is off-scale and the location errors are likely - to .be large. Several factors influence the 1 accuracy in depth of focus, most important of which is station coverage which changed greatly during the time
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'q interval covered. The applicant is therefore asked to j provide a number of diagrams similar to Crosson's Figure 6 for periods which reflect significant changes in network coverage 'and showing ' error bars that indicate -the ' accuracy of hypocentral locations. !
j b) Figure 2.5-36C shows seismicity (for example, in the ' vicinity of Mt. St. Helens) that does not appear to have been plotted in the sections shown in Figure 2.5-31. Yet Figure 2. 5 - 31 states that earthquakes. within 150 km of a ( line striking N600E through the site have been included on j the section. Two questions arise: (1) what earthquakes (if' ; any) have been omitted from the section (Figure 2.5-31), and (2) why is the aperture for the section so wide since a width of 300 km results in earthquakes in the Willamette > depresison being projected to points west of the site into what may be an entirely different tectonic province? c) Expand your explanation of the decrease.in seismicity on the sections through the site west of point B in Figure 2.5-31. d) The geometry and location of the flexure in the subducting. plate is assumed to be the western boundary of the down-dip . tension earthquakes. Therefore, its position is critical. ' Clarify your reasoning for locating the position ' of the fl exure. e) The Puget Sound earthquake of February 15, 1946, is a large earthquake With uncertain depth (Rasmussen, Millard, and < Smith, 1974). If this event was relocated at a shallower i depth or farther to the west, it may significantly alter the applicant's conclusions about- the earthquake potential of l the subduction interface er' the overriding pl ate. The International Seismological Summary for 1946 (1954) lists over 40 observations for this earthquake. The observations range in distance from as close as Seattle to as far as Lome in the Ivory Coast. Despite the existence of these data, i i l _, J
l )' i
' Question No. }
230.3 e)' the' applicant chose not to do a computer relation (FSAR, pp. , (Cont'd) 2.5<120). We request that. the applicant relocate this Learthquake using the' published I.S.C. data and establish the l '< relationship of this earthquake to ~ the Juan da Fuca-North American plate interface. i . Response,: a) In' response to Question 230.3a and the related Question 230.3b updated cross sections of the seismicity -in. western
' Washington' have been pr3 pared. These new . cross sections j
- reflect the extensive re-evaluation of the instrumental ;
earthquake catalog for the years 1970 to 1980 performed by the staff of the University of Washington Geophysics program as well as the recent data collected since the preparation i ! of the FSAR. Epicenter maps and cross sections were prepared 1 for the region from latitude 46*N ~ to 49'N and- ' longitude 121 *W to 125*W. l Figure 230.3a presents on epicenter map.of the earthquake data for events of' magnitude 1.0 or greater in the . depth range of.30.to 100 km and events of aiagnitude 2.5 or greater
, in the depth range of 0 to 30 km. This and subsequent plots show all events ' for which focal depths have . been deter-ali ned. . The ' data presented . consists of the events for the time period 1970 through 1986 recorded and processed by the ,
University- of Washington Geophysics prerm n nii a I approximately 20. events th n occurred prior to 1970 for 'l whie 70 cal deoths have been computed. A series of cross -l sections of the seismicity with a 30-km aperture width were l made cevering the region on Figure 230.3a-1. These are 1 shown in Figures 230.3a-2 through 230.3a-4. The cross sections were oriented in the direction of maximum dip of the Juan- de Fuca plate (i.e., normal to strike). Recent work by Crosson and Owens (1987) suggests that the i subducting Juan de Fuca plate is ' arched along strike upward j
-beneath Puget Sound and the direction of maximum dip varies l from east-southeast at latif.ude 47'N to east-northeast at latitude 49'N. Similar observations have been made by Baker and Langston (1987). Figures 230.3a-2a, 230.3a-3a, and 230.3a=4a show contcurs of depth to the oceanic Moho within the subducting slab taken frorn Figure 4 of Crosson and Owens (1987). These contours were used to define the direction of .
maximum dip used in the cross section plots. l For the University of Washingtbn catalog of WO arouch 1986 error information was provided for each event in the form of standard deviations in the X, Y, and Z directions. 1
Question No. 230.3 a) The magnitude of the errors for each event are shown on the , Response: cross sections as plus-or-minus-two standard deviation error (Cont'dT bars for the vertical' and horizontal errors. The horizontal error shown is equal to the square root of the sum of the squares of the standard deviation:, of X and Y, as defined by Lee and Lahr (1975). , For the events prior to 1970 no location error information - was readily available, These events are shown on the cross l sections as hexigons without error bars. The locations for the 1946,1949, and 1965 earthquakes are noted on Figure 230.3a-1 and on the cross sections in which they lie. The response to Question 230.3e discusses the location uncer-tainty for the 1946 earthquake. Crosson (1972, Figure 6) presented plots of location error for the Puget Sound region seismograph array based on an assumed level of randomness in P-wave on-set times at all stations in 'the array. This approach yields idealized estimates of error assuming that recordings at ali stations I are'used to locate events. As the 6ensity of network' cover-age increases, the idealized error estimates become unreal-istically small compared to the errors actually reported in the catalog. Therefore, a series of plots were prepared showing the average error reported for events in the catal og. Figure 230,3a-5 shows the evolution of the uW. erb i,y of wasnington's seistnograph erray over tne time period 1970 to present. As the greatest change in station density and distribution occurred in 1980, the catalog was divided into two time periods,1970 through 1979, and 1980 through 1986. The spatial variation of location error was evaluated by computing the average location error at a grid of points in the study area. The region between latitude 46*N to 49'N and lonaitude 121*W to 124*W was divided into blocks 0.25* on a side. (The area outside this region contained too few events to estimate the spatial variation of average error.) Within each block, the average of the errors in the X (east-west), Y (north-south), Z (depth), and T (origin time) components of the hypocentral location for all events were computed. Separate averages were obtained for the two specified time periods and for events shallower than 30 km and deeper than 30 km. These average values were then contoured to produce the error maps shown in Figures 230.3a-6 through 230.3a-9. These plots indicate somewhat smaller location errors for the time period 1980-1986 and similar average errors for the two depth ranges. The largest improvement has been at the western edge of the region shown in Figures 230.3a-6 through 230.3a-9 reflecting the increased station coverage in that area shown in Figure 230.3a-5. Isolated points of large error indicate locations 1 l -._ _ _ _ _ _ _
-Question No; 230.3 a) where the reported error for a single event dominates' the . Response:- average. The location error bars shorm on the- cross sec-(Cont'd) tions in Figures 230.3a-2 thmugh 230.3a-4 confirm the pat-tern of generally good location quality throughout the region with occasional events n'aving large location errors.
b) The updated cross. sections shown in Figures 230.3a-2b and
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230.3a-2c do not include the events within the Mt. St. Helens _ - Elk Lake Zone delineated on the epicenter map (Figure 230.3a-2a). Nearly 7000 earthquakes from this zone are listed in the University of Washington catalog.. Only one event in this area is located at a depth greater than 30 km. As _ indicated in the response to Question 230.3a, the updated cross sections and epicenter plots also do. not show the locations for events prior to 1970 for which focal depths have not been computed. c) As part of the response to Question '230.3c, please . refer to the series of hypocentral cross-sections prepared from the i updated University . of Washington seismicity data base l (response to Question 230.3a and. Figures 230.3a-2 thttugh 230.3a-4). The conclusions drawn in the FSAR (Section
- 2. 5.1.1. 4. 2. 2. 9 ) related to the down-dip bend or flexure in the slab (point "B") are essentially unchanged given the updated hypocentral cross-sections. The flexure can be inferred from the change in position of hypocenters and is especially evident at the approximate latitude of the site (e.g., Figures 230.3a-2b and 230.3a-3c) and to the north.
South of the site, seismicity is too sparse to define the sl ab. The " decrease in seismicity" given in the question refers to i the size of the largest events that have occurred within the l slab relative to the - flexure. Small magnitude earthquakes l occur throughout much of the subducted slab. However, as concluded in the FSAR (Section 2. 5.1.1. 4. 2. 3. 2 ) , the larger-magnitude intra-slab events occur at or to the east of the flexure. Figure 230.3c-1 is a plot of all events with focal depths - of 30 km or greater having magnitudes larger. than 4.5 in the seismicity data base. Also shown in the figure are contours of depth to the Moho within the i subducting slab taken from Figure 4 of Crosson and Owens (1987) and the inferred location of the slab flexure based on examination of the suite of hypocentral cross-sections (response to Question 230.3a). It is clear from this plot that all earthquakes having a magnitude greater than 4.5 have occurred in the vicinity of or east of the postulated flexure in the sl ab. As noted in the FSAR (Section
- 2. 5.1.1. 4. 2. 3. 2 ) , worldwide observations of large in-plate
l Questionko.
- 230.3 c) earthquakes have shown that these events occur at depths
. lRes ense: greater than about 35 km and typically at down-dip flex-ICont'3T ures. The observations of the Cascadia subduction zone are consistent with this conclusion.
! d) As shawn in the hypocentral cross-sections provided in the response to Question 230.3a (Figures 230.3a-2 through 230.3a-4), the location of the flexure is ouite evident from seismicity, particularly at the approximate latitude of the l site. Further support for a down-dig flexure is indicated by the requirement that the slab he present at the zone of deep seismicity beneath Puget Sound and also be present at magmatic generation depths of 100 - 150 km beneath the Cascades to the east of Puget Sound. Detailed focal mech-anism studies of the 1949 earthquake (Bakcr and Langston, ; 1987) and the 1965 earthquake (Langston and Blum, 1977), which both occurred in the vicinity of or to the east of the flexure, show evidence that the tension axes for these earthquakes are down-dip. Focal mechanisms for several e small earthquakes that occurred to the west of the flexure, but ' presumably within the slab, also show down-dip tension i axes (Taber and Smith,1985). The conclusion drawn in the FSAR (Section 2. 5.1.1. 4. 2. 2. 9 ) is that the larger intra-slab earthquakes occur in the vicinit.y or to the east of the flexure, not that the flexure marks the boundary between down-dip tension earthquakes to the east and some other. stress orientation to the west. Because slab-pull stresses are probably dominant over ridge-push stresses (Spence, 1986), tensional stresses might be expected to act through-out most 'of the subducted slab and to be expressed as down-dip tensional earthquake mechanisms. All of the earthquakes having magnitudes larger than 4.5 have occurred in the q vicinity of, or to the east of, the flexure at depths i greater than 35 km (see response to Question 230.3c), in agreement with worldwide observations of larger in-slab earthquakes. One likely mechanism for the localization of the larger earthquakes in the vicinity of the flexure is the l concentration of tensional stresses at the bend in the sl ab. Therefore, the slab flexure marks the western bound-ary of the larger intra-slab earthquakes. , 1 e) The earthquake of February 15, 1946 is originally reported in the International Seismological Summary at 03:17 GMT with the epicenter at 47.3*N,122.9*W. Table 230.3e-1 lists the reported ISC data for this event. The locations obtained for the 1946 earthquake indicate that it occurred in the same gereral location as the 1949 and 1965 (see response to Question 230.3c, Figure 230.3c-1 ) events and likely occurred within the downgoing Juan de Fuca plate near the point of flexure. i
Question No. 230.3 e) The relocation of the February 15, 1946 event was performed _ Response _: using the teleseismic location program TELES written by
-(Cont'd) Prof. Bruce A. Dolt at the University of California Seis-
'mographic Station, Berkeley, . California and- the Jeffreys-Bullen earth model (Jeffreys and Bullen,1940). Four com-puter relocation runs were performed. In. the first run, all ISS, phase data with' residuals reported as .less than 30 seconds as well as five pP_ depth phases were used. A sixth depth phase reported at Tucson was not used in any of the relocation runs because it _ indicates. an unreasonable depth of 1457.9 km _ for the event. In the; second run, phases with residusis computed by TELES that were greater than 15 seconds were eliminated. Starting. depths of 30 km and 90 km were used.to test depth stability. 'In both cases the program converged to the same location. In the third run, phases with residuals greater than 10 seconds were eliminated with the exception of observations in Washington state. In the forth run, the P phase observed at Seattle and the S phase observed at Grand Coulee were eliminated because the residuals were greater than 10 seconds. .The computed locations for each run are listed below, 'and Tables '230.3e-2 through 230.3e-5 list the phase data used in each location.
Analysis Computed Location Case Latitude- Longitude Depth Std Error 1 47.177 'N 122.715*W 71.0km 4.98 sec 2 47.134* N 122.965'W 71.0km 3.33 sec 3 47.179'N 122.S95*W 70.0km 3.40 sec 4 47.124* N 122.993*W 71.7km 3.21 see Figure 230.3e-1 shows the four computed epicentral locations, and Figure 230.3e-2 shows the event location superimposed on the cross section of the instrumental seismicity (see response to Question 230.3a). Depths for the event were also calculated using the five pP-P times reported in the ISS, and the velocity model used by the University of WashingtoS in the Puget Sound region. The resul ts of these calculations are given below. The average depth is in good agreement with the depth obtained for the teleseismic location. I _ - - - _ _ - - _ -_ a
Question No. 230.3 e) Response: Station pP-p (sec) Depth (km) (Cont'd) Salt Lake City 21 .0 74.7 Overton 14.0 47.4 Strasbourg 25.0 90.3 Toledo 10.0 32.7 Granada 30.0 109.8 Average 70.9 f This range in depth is indicated by the vertical bars at each location'shown in Figure 230.3e-2. The location obtained from Case 2 was selected as the pre-ferred location because the ctandard error is signifi-cantly lower than for Case 1 and the aximuthal coverage is , greater than for Cases 3 and'4. ' The results of the relocation calculations do not result in a major change from the published location for the 1946 event. The resul ts indicate that the event most likely occurred within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate near the point where slab dip steepens. l l a
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4 Table 230.3e '
'ISS PHASE'0ATA FOR FEBRUARY 15,1946 EVENT
.. . ORIGIONAliISS-LOCATION 03:17 48s 47.3*N 122.9*W (Arrival times are reported as travelitf.mes, since the origin time.):-
Station D. A2. 91 , 0-C. . S. 0-C. Supp. m s c m s s_ m s
. SEATTLE. 0.5 49 iP 00 08 -6 iS 0016 -7' VICTORIA: 11.3 344 P 00'28 +3 S 00 42 -2 GRAND COULEE' 2.7 .77 ,iP 00 41 - 4 is 01 11- -8
- SPOKANE 3.8 81 P.00 55 -6 . e5 02 45 .-13
.SHASTA DAM 6.6.177 iP Oi 39 -2 eS 02:45 .-13 l BUTTE. 7.2, 96 eP 01.52, +3 eS 03 07 -6 UKIAH 8.2 182 eP 02 24
. BERKELEY 9.4 177- iP 0217 -1 is 04 04 -LOGAN . 9.6 121. eP.02 25 +4 iS 04 36 SANTA CLARA- . 10.0.176 eP,02'29 +2 eS 02 01 SALT LAKE CITY 10.3 125 . eP 02 31 -1 . eS 04 35 ~+5 pP 02-52
' TINEMAHA 10.8 169 .iP 02 39- 0- is 04 27 -15 SASKAT0ON 11.6 . 59 P 02-52 :+2 S 04 59 -2 lHAIWEE: 11.7.160 iP 02~53 +2
'0VERTON 12.5 147 :eP 03 04~ +2. pP 03.18 SITKA: 12.7 328 iP 02 59 -6 is 06 22 ]
. BOULDER CITY- -12.8 149 eP 03 07 +1
-PIERCE FERAY. 13.0 146' eP.03 07 -2
-MOUNT' WILSON- 13.5 163- eP 0315 0 PASADENA 13.6 163 iP 0315 -2 eS 06 27 +37 RIVERSIDE 13.9 161 iP 03 20 -1 RAPID CITY 14.1 96 eP 03 21 .-2 eS 05 32 -30 PALAMAR 14.7 160 iP 03.30 -1 !
LA JOLLA 16.0 162 iP 03 35 0 i TUCSON -17.6 145 eP 04 05 -3 eS 07 03 -3 pP 07 19 -) LINCOLN 19.9 99 'eP 04 36 0 e5 08 27 +12 1 COLLEGE 22.3 331' eS 08 57? -5 { FLORISSANT 25.1 98 iP 05 30 +2 eS 1010 +19 J ST.- LOUIS 25.3 98 eP 05 24 -6 iS 09 59 +5 CHICAGO 25.6 89 eP 05 35 +3 ;j OTTAWA 32.2 75 eP 06 32 0 ; SHAWINIGAN FALLS 33.8 71 eP 07 42 ) VERMONT.: 34.2 75 . l SEVEN FALLS. 34.8 69 eP 08 02 BERMUDA 46.1 87 i PARIS '73.2- 34 eS 1139 +4 1 STRAEB0URG 75.3 31 eP 1152 +5 pP 1217 CLERMONT-FERRAND 75.9 35 eP 1212 +22 TOLEDO . .. 77.6 43- eP 11 54 -6 pP 12 04 GRANADA 79.9 45 iP 1217 +5 is 22 21 +5 pP 12 47 ! ALIEANTE 30.1 42 eS 22 23 +2 ROME.. 82.8 32 eP 12 36 +9 !
.i i
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'Ib Table 230.3e-2 ISS PHASE DATA USED IN THE RELOCATION OF THE FEBRUARY 15,1946 EVENT-(Arrival times are reported as travel times, since the origin time.)
CASE # 1 LATITUDE 47.177 i.0NGITUDE -122.715 DEPTH 71.0 km SE = 4.98 s Station P. 0-C. S. 0-C. Supp. ms s ms s_ m s SEATTLE iP 00 08 N/A iS 0016 -19.2 VICTORIA P 00 28 -05.2 S 00 42 -09.6 GRAND COULEE iP 00 41 -09.0 iS 01 11 -10.3 1 SPOKANE P 00 55 -09.6 'l SHA^,TA DAM iP 01 39 -04.4 es 02 45 -11.7 ) BUTTE eP 01 52 +00.2 es 03 07 -04.6 $ UKIAH eP 02 24 +18. 9 l BERKELEY iP 0217 -05.2 is 04 04 -02.3 i LOGAN eP 02 25 +00.2 iS 04 36 +25.0 l SANTA CLARA 'eP 02 29 +00.4 i SALT LAKE CITY eP 02 31 -02.1 eS 04 35 +09.2 pP 02 52 j TINEMAHA iP 02 39 -01 .3 15 04 27 -11.6 i SASKAT0ON P 02 52 +00.1 S 04 59 -00.6 I iP 02 53 00.0 HAIWEE OVERTON eP 03 04 +01.7 pP 0318 i SITKA iP 02 59 -06.6 BOULDER CITY eP 03 07 00.0 PIERCE FERRY eP 03 07 -02.3 MOUNT WILSON eP 0315 -02.2 PASADENA iP 0315 -02.8 RIVERSIDE iP 03 20 ' -01.9 RAPID CITY eP 03 21 -03.7 iP 03 30 -01 .4
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PALAMAR LA JOLLA iP 03 35 - 01 . 3 TUCSON eP 04 05 -03.6 es 07 03 -15.5 LINCOLN eP 04 36 +01.1 es 08 27 +18. 6 FLORISSANT iP 05 30 +03.1 es 1010 +27.1 ST. LOUIS eP 05 24 -04,3 iS 09 59 +13. 6 CHICAGO eP 05 35 +04.3 OTTAWA eS 06 32 +C0.7 PARIS eS 11 39 +05.7 STRASBOURG eP 1152 +06.4 pP 1217 CLERMONT-FERRAND eP 1212 +23.0 TOLEDO eP 1154 -04.3 pP 12 04 GRANADA iP 1217 +05.9 pP 12 47 ROME eP 12 36 e 9 f l L. _ _ -. - -
Table 230.3e-3 1 I ISS PHASE DATA USED IN THE RELOCATION OF THE FEBRUARY 15,1946 EVENT l (Arrival times are reported as travel times, since the origin time.) ) 1 CASE # 2 LATITUDE 47.134 LONGITUDE -122.965 DEPTH 71.0 km SE = 3.33 s I I Station P. 0-C. S. 0-C. Supp, m s s m s s m s' q SEATTLE iP 00 08 -15.3 VICTORIA P 00 28 -03.3 S 00 42 -07.7 GRAND COULEE iP 00 41 .-09.7 is 01 11 -12.9 SPOKANE P 00 55 -10.2 SHASTA DAM iP 01 39 -01 .9 eS 02 45 -08.9 : BUTTE eP 01 52 -00.2 eS 03 07. -06.9 - BERKELEY iP 0217 -02.8 iS 04 04 -00.6 LOGAN eP 02 25 +00.3 i SANTA CLARA eP 02 29 +02.0 SALT LAKE CITY- eP 02 31 -01.7 eS 04 35 +08.3 pP 02 52 TINEMAHA .iP 02 39 -00.4 iS 04 27 -10.1 HAIWEE iP 02 53 +01. 8 SASKAT0ON P 02 52 -00.3 S 04 59 -02.9 OVERTON eP 03 04 +02.9 pP 0318 SITKA iP 02 59 -03.8
. BOULDER CITY eP 03 07 +01. 3 PIERCE FERRY eP 03 07 -01 .2 MOUNT WILSON eP 0315 -00.3 PASADENA iP 0315 -00.9 .RIVEREIDE iP 03 20 -00.1 RAPID CITY eP 03 21 -04.0 PA',AMAR iP 03 30 +00.3 LA J0LLA iP 03 35 +00.5 TUCSON eP 04 05 -02.4 LINCOLN eP 04 36 +01. 3 FLORISSAN1 iP 05 30 +03.6 i ST. LOUIS eP 05 24 -03.8 is 09 59 +12. 9 CHICAGO eP 05 35 +04.6 OTTAWA es 06 32 +01.1 PARIS eS 11 39 +06.9 STRASBOURG eP 11 52 +07.7 pP 1217 TOLED0 eP 11 54 -03.0 pP 12 04 GRANADA iP 1217 +07.1 pP 12 47 ROME eP 12 36 +11. 3
a
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Table 230.3e-4 t
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LISS PHASE DATA USED IN THE RELOCATION OF THE FEBRUARY 15,1946 EVENT "
'(Arrival . times are reported as travel times, since'the origin time.)
Li
- CASE #.3 LATITUDE 47.1791 LONGITUDE -122.895 DEPTH 70.0 km . SE = 3.40 s t 1
~ Station P. C. S.. 0-C.; -Supp. .
m
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Table 230.3e-5 ISS PHASE DATA USED IN-THE RELOCATION OF THE FEBRUARY 15,1946 EVENT '
'(Arrival . times are reported as travel times, since the origin' time.)
CASE # 4 . LATITUDE 47.124 LONGITUDE -122.993 DEPTH 71.7 km . SE =' 3.21 s -
' Station P. 0-C. S. '0-C. Supp, m s s m s s m s h
- YICTORIA .
P 00 28 -03.41 S 00 42 -07.9 GRAND COULEE iP 00 41 -10.0 ,
. SPOKANE- P 00 55 -10.5 i SHASTA DAM iP 01 ' 39 -01 . 9 eS 02 45 -08.8 i BUTTE eP 01 52 -00.5 eS 03 07 -07.3
'BERXELEY iP 02 17 -02.8 iS 04 04 +00.6 LOGAN. eP 02 25 +00.1 SANTA ~CLARA'. eP 02 29 +01. 9
- SALT LAKE. CITY eP 02 31 -01 .9 eS 04 35 +08.0 pP 02 52 TINEMAHA' iP 02 39 +00.3 KAIWEE iP 02 53 +01.7 SASKAY0ON P 02 52 -00.6 S 04 59 -03.4 CVERTON' eP 03 04 +02.8 pP 0318 i SITKA iP 02 59 -03.9 BOULDER CITY eP 03 07 +01.1 PIERCE *ERPY eP 03 07 -01. 3 - '
MOUNT.LlLSON eP 0315 -00.4 PASADE'A N iP 0315 - 01 . 0 RIVERSIDE iP 03 20 -00.2
-RAPID CITY. eP 03 21 -04.3 PALAMAR iP 03 30 +00.2 )
LA J0LLA iP 03 35 +00.5 TUCSON eP 04 05 -02.6 LINCOLN eP 04 36 +01. 0 FLORISSAfiT iP 05 30 '+03.3 ST.' LOUIS eP 05 24' -04.1 CHICAGO et 05 35 +04.4 ! OTTAWA- eS.06 32 +00.9 I PARIS eS 11 39 +06.7 ! STRASBOURG eP 11 52 +07.4 pP 1217 i TOLED0 eP 1154 -03.3 pP 12 04 ) GRANADA iP 12 17 - +06.9 pP 12 47 ; ROME eP 12 36 +11. 3 ; l f i : L l i l l
_\
- Question No.
230.3
References:
Baker G.E., and Langston, C. A.,1987, Source parameters of the
, magnitude '7.1, : 1949, South Puget Sound, Washingtun, earthquake determined from long-period body waves -and strong. ground motions: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,
- v. 77, no. 5, pp.1530-1557.
Crosson, 'R.S.,1972, Small earthquakes, structure, and tectonics of,the Puget Sound region: Bulletin of the- Seismological Society of America, ' vol . 62, no. . Er pp. 1133-1171. Crosson,-R.S., and Owens, T.J.,'1987, Slab ' geometry of the-
. Cascadia' subduction zone beneath Washington from earthquake hypocenters 'and teleseismic ' converted: waves: . Geophysical Research Letters v. 14, no. 8, pp.'824-827.
Langston, C. A~. , and- Blum, D.E.,1977, The April _ 29, 1965, Puget Sound enrthquake:and the crustal and upper mantle _ structure; of' western Washington: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,.v. 67,:pp, 693-711, Lee, W.H.K., and Lahr, J.C.,1975, HYP071-A computer program for determining hypocenter, magnitude, and first motion pattern of local earthquakes: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 75-311. Spence, W.,1986, Origins of strasses at.the Cascadia subduction zone, U.S. Pacific northwest (abs.): EOS, v. 67, no. 44, pp. 1115. - Taber, T.J., and Smith, S.W.,1986, Seismicity and focal mech-anisms associated with the -subduction of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Olympia Peninsula, Washington: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 75, pp. 237-249. l Figures: Figure 230.3a-1 Epicenter plot for events in western Washington for which focal depths have been computed. Plot shows events of i me.gnitude 2.5 or greater in the depth range of 0-30 km.and 1.0 ] or greater for the depth greater than 30 km. Locations of the -{ three largest events within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate are noted. Figure 230.3a-2 Cross sections through southern portion of study region. Figure 230.3a-2a shows the epicentral locations 4 l and the cross section locations and orientation relative to the I down-dip direction of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. 1 l
duestionNo. 230.3 Contour lines are depth to oceanic Moho within the subducting Figures: Juan de Fuca plate taken from Crosson and Owens (1987). Figures (Cont'd) 230.3a-2b and 230.3a-2c present tne cross sections at the same scale as the epicenter map. Error bars represent plus-and-minus-two standard deviations of the reported hori:.ontal and vertical errors. Events occurring prior to 1970 are shown by hexigor.s without error bars. Figure 230.3a-3 Cross sections through central portion of study region. Figure 230.3a-3a shows the epicentral locations and the cross section locations and orientation relative to the down-dip direction of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. Contour lines are depth to oceanic Moho within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate taken from Crosson and Owens (1987). Figures 230.3a-3b and 230.3a-3c present the cross sections at the same scale as the epicenter map. Error Dars represent plus-and minus-two standard deviations of the reported horizontal and vertical errors. Events occurring prior to 1970 are shown by hexigons without error bars. Figure 230.3a-4 Crosi sections through northern portion of study region. Figure 230.3a-4a shows the epicentral locations and the cross section locations and orientation relative to the down-dip direction of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. Contour lines are depth to oceanic Moho within the subducting Juen de Fuca plate taktn from Crosson and Owens (1987). Figure 230.3a-4b presents the cross sections at the same scale as the epicentral map. Error bars represent plus-and-minus-two stan-dard deviations of the reported horizontal and vertical errors. Events occurring prior to 1970 are shown by hexigons without error bars. Figure 230.3a-5 Seismograph station locations for University of Washington seGmograph array. Station locations are shcwn by triangles for network configurations in December 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985. Dashed-line denotes the region for which average f location errors were contoured. ! Figure 230.3a-6 Contours of average reported error for east-west epicentral location (X coordinate) in kilometers for events in University of Washington catalog. Figure 230.3a-7 Contours of average reported error for north-south epicentral location (Y coordinate) in kilometers for i events in University of Washington catalog. l Figum 230.3a-8 Contours of average reported error for focal j depth (Z coordinate) in kilometers for events in University of ; Washington catalog. { I l
Question No._ ; 230.3 Figure 230.3a-9 Contours of average reported error for origin Figures: time (T) in seconds for events in University of Washington (Cont'd) catalog. Figure 23 .3c-1 Epicentral location of earthquakes of magnitude greater than 4.5 with focal depths of 30-100 km. Contour 71nes are for depth to Moho within the Juan de Fuca plate taken from Crosson and Owens (1987). Approximate location of flexure in Juan de Fuca plate was estimated from cross sections shown in response to Question 230.3a, Figures 230.3a-2 through 230.3a-4. Figure 230.3e-1 Computed epicentral locations for February 16, 1946 earthquake. Contour lines are depth to oceanic Moho taken from Crosson and Owens (1987). Figure 230.3e-2 Computed hypocentral locations for February 15, 1946 earthquake compared with cross section of instrumental seismicity.
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1
Question No. j 230.4 (SRP a) Estimate the' maximum magnitude _ possible for a "randdm ' earth-2.5.2.3,. quakes" in the shallow crust within a 32-km radius around
' 2. 5.' 2.4 ) the site.
b) Inasmuch as the 17 March 1904 earthquake has not been. asso - ;
ciated with a structure at any of its various hypothetical )
locations (pp. 2.5-127, 128, FSAR, WPP5S, 1982), show why 1 the size of this earthquake s size of the " random earthquake.,hould not be considered the -
c) With respect to the 17 March 1904 earthquake, provide all references not in the public sector for the intensities shown . in Figure 2.5-90, as well as for any other locations for which information is available which could be used to assess intensity. Provide the ' documentation for the relo-cation of the earthquake to " south of Port Townsend" and the assignment'of a smaller size (both attributed to the Pacific q Science Center, Victoria, B.C., as "Milne, .1981, private 1 communication: and " Rogers 1981, private communication"). I d) Identify the maximum' historical earthquake, not associated with known geologic structure, in the tectonic province of the site. Following Appendix A to 10CFR100, assume this f earthquake can occur in the vicinity of the site, estimate the resulting ground motion, and assess the adequacy of the SSE spectrum for this occurrence. ,
1
Response
L a) The maximum size possible for a random earthquake is evalu-ated on the basis of historical seismicity and of geologic
. studies. The historical and instrumental record of seis- '
micity. shows that ' the largest shallow crustal earthquakes within the site tectonic province (the Coast Range Province extending' from latitude 44*N to 47.3*N) have been about { magnitude 5 (see response to Question 230.4d). Common practice for estimating the maximum magnitude of random earthquakes from the historical seismicity record is to assume that the maximum is about one-half magnitude unit lar.ger than the observed magnitude (e.g., Basham and others, 1982). Using this method, an estimate of the maximum mag-nitude for the random earthquake based on historical seismicity is 5-1/2. l l To evaluate the maximum magnitude of random earthquakes .j using geologic data, consideration must be given to the i geologic history of faults and deformation. The capability of more than forty faults at the site and within the site locality (including faults to almost 50 km from the site) , 1 i
l l l Question No. : L 230A a) was evaluated for the PSAR studies, studies leading to the Response: FSAR, and studies .in response to= NRC review questions (Cont'd) (response to Question 231.1 ;' ' WPPSS , 1982, Appendix 2.5F; WPPSS, 1974). The ;apability evaluations consisted of documenting the displacement history of each fault based on the age of the oldest features not disturbed by the fault or by genetic association of the fault with nearby faults for which the age of most .recent displacement could be deter-mined. The evaluations utilized several Quaternary features and stratigraphy (e.g., relict' erosion surfaces, glacio-fluvial deposits, deep weathering profiles, paleosols) with ages .from Holocene (10,000 years old) to early Pleistocene (1.8 million years old) to establish the ages of most recent movement (WPPSS,1982). Based on field studies that included detailed geologic map-ping and mcpping of more than 50 trenches, the faults in the site locality (within about a0 km of the site) have been shown or interpreted to be not capable (response to Question 231, 1986; NRC, 1985; WPPSS, 1974; WPPSS, 1982). These studies and evaluations indicate:
- 1. The faults in the site locality formed before and during a period of late Tertiary deformation that ceased by early Pleistocene.
- 2. The area containing the faults has bcen tectonically stable (with respect to folding and fault displace-ment) since early Pleistocene. This is evident in accordant summits of relict erosion surfaces, undis-turbed deep weathering profiles, and the undisturbed and parallel nature of Pleistocene glacio-fluvial terrace surface profiles that cross the trends of the folds and faults.
- 3. A number of faults in the site locality are overlain by undisturbed early to late Pleistocene deposits.
The resolution of these findings varies from less than one centimeter for detailed trenching to 1 to 5 m for detailed and reconnaissance level mapping, respectively.
- 4. In nu case is there evidence to suggest that faults in the site locality have been tectonically active during the Holocene or Pleistocene.
As noted above the level of resolution of geologic studies in the site locality ranges from less than crie centimeter in trench exposures, to about one meter in areas of detailed
\y ,
)
~
Question No. '{ 1 230.4'a)- ' mapping, :to itbout five meters in, areas of reconnaissance - >i Response: . level mapping. . Simplyz stated, the resolution is the meximum (Cont'dT amount: of cumulative deformation (either fault ' displacement or folding) that ' could escape detection in the geologic studies.- In general, the Quaternary deposits and geomorphic
-surfaces that exist in the. site locality are a few hundred thousand to over one million years old (WPPSS,1982; Figure 2.5F-53). For ~ exaqiple, the terraces along the Chehalis :
River, which show no evidence of fault-. displacement, fold-ing, or tilting, are estimated to be about 320,000 years ol d.- Given the antiquity of the deposits, c fault generat-ing repeated large-magnitude displacements and/or associated folding would be expected to be detected in the : geologic ;
' investigations. Because of the long time period represented by the- Quaternary deposits and surfaces, only very small ?
deformations (few tens of centimeters per event) with prob-able leng repeat times- (tens ' to hundreds of thousands of years) could escape geologic expression withiri the resolu- - tion. It is estimated that the magnitude of events associ- j
'dted with e few tens of centimeters per event would be about. .q magnitude 6, based on existing correlations of displacement with egnitude (e.g. , $1emmons,1982; Bonilla et al . ,1984).
Considering both the historical record and the results of detailed geological ' investigations in the site region, the maximum _ magnitude possible for a " random" event in the site vicinity is estimated to be about 5-1/2 to 6. b) As documented in the FSAR, the various sizes and locations that have been published for tha 17 March 1904 earthquake 1 are as follows: { Reference _ Location Size ! Eppley (1965) 47'N, 124*W I, V Dominion Observatory (1973) 47.5'N, 124*W M6 Rasmussen (1967) 48.5*N, 123.3*W Ig V Coffman and von Hake (1973) 48.5'N, 122.8*W Ig V Rogers (1983) 47.8'N, 123*W ML 5.3 , Figure 230.4b-1 shows the above locations in relationship to the regional seismicity and the tectonic provinces defined in the FSAR. The location currently adopted in the Canadian Pacific Geosciences Center and University of Washington catalogs is that reported by Rogers (1983), which is based i L on . examination of felt levels from r.ewspaper reports (see j f l 1 C
Quenion No. 730.4 b) response to Question 230.ac). A similar review of fel t Response: . reports published in newspapers and in Townley and Allen (Cont'd) (1939) was conducted as part of the PSAR studiec, resulting in the isoseismal cap shown in Figure 230.4b-2 (FSAR Figure ( 2.5-90). The intensity distribution shown in Figure L 230.4b-2 suggest that the 1904 event was most likely located on the western edge of the zone of high activity within tha Puget Sound Trough in agreement with the location proposed by Rogers (1983). The only proposed epicentral location that lies within the site tectonic province is that reported by Eppley (1965) at
~
47'N,124*W, which was based in part on Milne (1956). Milne subsequently updated the location to 47.5'N,124*W (Dominion Observatory, 1973) placing the event within the Olympic Mountains Province. Milne (1973, personal communication) further indicates that the accuracy of this location is only
+ 1*. These locations are likely based on the reports of
~ disrupted flow in the Hoh, Queets, Quinault and Wishkah rivers in western Washington (see Figure 230.4b-2) quoted in Townley and Allen (1939). As discussed in the FSAR (p.
2.5-127) these reports probably reflect secondary phenomena, possibly landslides. The location reported by Eppley is clearly not supported by the distributions of felt reports. The locations reported by Rasmussen (3967) and Coffman and von Hake (1973) place the event in the San Juan Islands east of Victoria, B.C. a location that also appears inconsistent with the pattern of felt reports shown in Figure 230.4b-2. Thus, the 1904 earthquake should not be used as a basis for defining the maximum magnitude possibic for a random earth-quake in the site vicinity as the event was probably' located at the western edge of the Puget Trough province or possibly within the Olympic Mountains province, not in the tectonic province within which the site is located. However, the size of the 1904 event is within the range of 5-1/2 to 6 estimated for tne maxinum magnitude possible for a random event (response to Question 230 da), c) The intensities shown in the FSAR, Figure 2.5-90 (see also Figure 230.4b-2 in response to Question 230.4b) were based on the felt reports published in Townley and Allen (1939) and in the Aberdeen Herald, Seattle Post, Washingtonian and Washington Standard newspapers. The documentation for the relocation of the earthquake to south of Dort Townsend and the assignment of a magnitude of 5.3 has been published by Rogers (1983). The relevent section is quoted below. i
Question No. 230.4 c) "a) March 16,1904 Response: . (Cont'd) .In the Canadian Earthquake Data File the epicentre for this event was located on the west side of the Olympia Peninsula and it was assigned a magnitude of 6. . In Earthquake History of the United States it is given i the location of Victoria, B.C. and assigned an intensity value of V. A study of fel t levels from newspaper 3 reports suggests the earthquake has an epicentre along the west side of Puget Sound, south of Port Townsend and that the magnitude is about 5. The confirmation that this earthquake was . not near the west coast of the Olympia Peninsula is important as no large earthquakes have yet been located along the coast." l Rogers (1983) estimated the event size as ML 5.3 using the relationship ML = -1.88 + 1.53 logio(felt area in km2) developed 20,000 mi py(Rasmussen, Toppozada 1967). (1975) and the reported felt area of The conservative estimate of the felt area gn the FSAR, Figure 2.5-90, is approxi-mately 40,000 to a magnitude of The mi o,f corresponding size the felt area suggests that this ML 5.7. event was smaller than the 1939 and 1946 events which were about magnitude 6 in size. d) Figure 230.4d-1 shows the distribution of historical seis-micity within the North American plate for events of a mag-nitude greater than or equal to ML 4.0 or l o greater than or equal to V in relationship to the tectonic province boundaries defined in the FSAR (WPPSS, 1982). The WNP-3 site lies within the Coast Range province which consists of the Willapa Hills and Oregon Coast Range subprovinces. The largest historical events within the Willapa Hills sub-province are the 7 December 1944 and 7 October 1958 intensity VI earthquakes. Using the relationship HL = 2/3
'Io + 1, these events were approximately ML 5 in size.
Thg October 7,1958 event had a reported felt area of 1,800 '
'mi' (Rasmussen, 1967) which would correspond to a mag-nitude ML 3.7 using the relationship between felt area and magnitude developed by Toppozada (1975). The largest his-torical events in the Oregon Coast Range subprovince are the November 17, 1957, ML 5.0, and August 11, 1962 intensity .
VI events. The November 17, 1957 event has a reported felt area of 4,500 mi2 which would correspond to a magnitude ' 4.3 event using Toppozada's relationship. Thus, the maximum historical earthquake is considered to be ML 5.0. l l i _-
1
; Question No. ,
230.4 d) The _ site-specifici ground motions were evaluated by averaging
.. Response: the . response spectra computed from accelerograms recorded.
(Cont'd) during earthquakes of magnitude ML 5.0 +- 0.5 at epicentral distances of about 25 km or less. . As tIIe plant is founded on rock, only recordings from recording stations located on ' rock er rock-like material -(shear wave velocity greater than. or equal. to 2500 fps) were used. The available records are listed in hble 230.4d-1 in terms of the earthquake name, date, ruptura mechanism, the' local-magnitude, station number, epicentral distance, the com- . ponent directions, and the peak acceleration value for each j record. The station data for each of the recording stations
;shown in Table 230.4d-1 are listed in Table 230.4d-2 showing -
the station number, station name, description of the instru-ment location and housing, and the subsurface. conditions at each instrument site. .The references used in documenting - the . instrument location and the site conditions at each recording station are also included in the same table. A scattergram showing. the magnitude-distance distribution of the records is shown in Figure -230.4d-2. Figure 230.4d-3 shows a' composite plot of the response spectra. A total of 12 records (24 horizontal components) were selected from earthquakes in the magnitude range, of ML 4.5 to 5.5. The recordings from. the Helena, ' Montana earthquake were not used as they were obtained in the basement of a large. masonary building and are not considered represent-ative of free field recordings. The recordings .from Fruili for Station No. 8019 were' not used as 'the instrument is located in a tunnel at a depth of approximately 300 m below the surface. Seekins' and Hanks (1978) report that the recordings obtained at station DWR (Station. No; 1543) during the Greville after-shock sequence may have been affected by a loose instrument restraining bolt. Figure 230.4d-4 compares the mean spec-tral shape for the DWR recordings (Station 1543) with the mean spectral shape for other. Oroville rock recording sites. As can be seen, there is a pronounced peak in the DWR recorings at a period of about. 0.05 seconds compared to the peak response occurring at about 0.09 seconds for the other rock stations. Given the uncertainty in the reli-ability of the DWR recordings, these recordings should not be used in evaluating the adequacy of the SSE spectrum. The effect of including the recordings on the computed site-specific spectra was evaluated, as indicated below.
)
Question No. 230.4 d) The statistical analysis of the data set was performed on Response: the leg of spectral acceleration.. Studies (Esteva,1969; (Cont'd). Donovan, 1973; NcGuire, 1974; Campbell, 1981; and Abrahamson, 1987) have shown that the variability in recorded ground motions are best modeled by a lognormal distribution. The results of the analysis are shown in Figure 230.4d-5 in terms of the median (r.iean log Sa), mean 84th percentile f of fitted log normal distribution and 84.h-percentile-of-the-data spectral values for a damping ratio of 5 percent. As can be seen, the SSE design spectrum is well above the computed statistical response spectra. i Figure 230.4d 6 shows the effect of including the Oroville ' records from station DWR on the statistical spectra. Inclusion of the DWR recording results in a substantial shift in the frequency content of the statistical spectra reflecting the differences in spectral shape shown in Figure 230.4d-4. This shift, and the fact that the DWR records have relatively high amplitudes (Table 230.4d-1), result in the 84th percentile spectra exceeding the SSE design spectrum in the period range of 0.04 to 0.07 seconds, tiewever, as indicated above, these high frequency motions may be the result of recording instrument vibration. Additional analyses were conducted to evaluate the effect of 1 the presence of numerous nearfield recordings in the data set on the site-specific spectra. The site-specific, spectra provides a statistical estimate of the ground motions from the occurrence of an earthquake at a random location near the site. If it is assumed that the probability of an event occurring at any point within a circle about the site is modeled by a uniform distribution (probability of an event per unit area constant over the circle) then the probability' of an event occurring within a specified distance band is equal to the ratio of the area within the distance band to the total area in the 25-km radius circle. These probabil-ities for 5-km wide distance bands are compared below with the percentages of the recordings used in the analyses which lie in various distance bands. Probability of a Fraction of Data Random Event in Sec in Distance Band Distance Band Distance Band Ethout DWR With DWR 0 - 5 km 0.04 0.25 0.44 5 - 10 km 0.12 0.08 0.06 10 - 15 km 0.20 0.42 0 . 31 ) 15 - 20 km 0.28 0.17 0.13 ) f 20 - 25 km 0.36 0.08 0.06 l i l
k Question No. 230.4 d) For an idealized case, the greatest frequency of events Response: would be at the greatest distance. However, as can be seen (Cont'd) from Figure 230.4d-2 and the above tabulated values, the data set has an inverse distribution to that expected for a random event within a circle. To evaluate the effect of this inverse distance distribution, a weighted statistical analysis was performed with the spectra in each distance band assigned a weight such that their contribution to the total is equal to the probability of a random event occur-ring in the appropriate distance band. Figure 230.4d-7 shows the resulting response spectra which are well below the SSE spectrum. Figure 230.4d-8 shows the effect of including the DWR recording on the computed spectra. Comparison of the spectra shown in Figures 230.4d-7 and 230.4d-8 shows that the inclusion of the DWR recordings in the weighted statistical analysis has little impact on the resul ts. This is due to the fact that the DWR recordings were all obtained at very close epicentral distances, and accordingly, receive a low weight in the analysis. J The statistical results for magnitude, distance and peak i acceleration obtained from the data sets used in the various j analyses are tabulated below. j Mean Mean Peak Acceleration (g) Analysis Magnitude Distance Median Mean 84th% l 12 records 5.1 10.8 0.1 01 0.123 0.1 91 i (DWR not included) 1 16 records 5.0 8.6 0.1 21 0.150 0.238 I (DWR included) !
)
12 records 5.0 15.5 0.071 0.080 0.112 i weighted I (DWR not included) ! 1 l 16 records 5,0 15.5 0.072 0.080 0.112 weighted (DWR included) ; The mean magnitude for each analysis is consistent with the target magnitude of 5.0 and the mean distance for the weighted analyses are consistent with the mean distance to a random point in a circle which is 2/3 of the circle radius or 16.7 km. The results of the analyses indicate that the SSE spectrum is adequate in comparison with a site-specific spectra for the maximum historical event that has occurred within the site tectonic province. Figures 230.4d-5 and 230.4d-7 shows that the 84th percentile site-specific spectra for a random event are below the SSE design spectrum.
Question No. F 230.4 (Cent'd)
References:
Abrahamson, N.A., 1987, Some statistical properties of peak ground accelerations (abs.): Seismological Research Letters,-
- v. 58, pp. 29-30.
Basham, R.W., Weichert, D.H. , Anglin, F.M., and Berry, M.J. , 1982, New probabilistic strong seismic ground motion maps of Canada: a compilation of earthquake source zones, methods and results: Earth Physics Branch, Energy, Mines and Resources, Canada Open-File Report 82-33, pp. 205. Bonill a, M.G. , Mark, R.K. , Lienkaemper, J.J. , 1984, Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude surface rupture length, and surface fault displacement: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 74, no. 6, pp. 2379-2411. Campbell, K.W.,1981, Near-source attenuation of peak horizontal acceleration: Bulletin nf the Seismologic61 Society of America, e
- v. 71, no. 6.
Coffman, J.L. , and von Hake, C. A. ,1973, Earthquake history of the United States: Pub. 41-1, Revised edition (through 1970), . U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, Environmental Data Service, pp. 208. Dominion Observatory, 1973, Earthquake data file, 1901-1963: unpublished. Donovan, N.C.,1973, A statistical evaluation of strong motion data, including the February 9,1971 San Fernando carthquake: Proceedings of the Fifth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Rome, 25-29 June 1973, v.1, pp.1252-1261. Epply, R. A.,1965, Earthquake history of the United States, Part I, Stronger earthquakes of the United States: U.S. Department of Commerce, Coast and Geodetic Survey, No. 41 -1 , Revised edition (through 1963). Esteva, L.,1969, Seismicity prediction: A Brayesian approach: Proceedings of the Fourth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Santiage, Chile, January 13-18, v. 1, pp. AL 172-184. Esteva, L.,1969. Seismicity prediction: A Brayesian approach: Milne, W.G.,1956, Seismic activity in Canada west of the 113th meridian, 1841-1951: Canadian Department of Mines and Technical Surveys, Pub, of the Dominion Observatory, Ottawa, XVIII:7, pp. 119-146. I
Question No. 230.4. McGuire, R.K.,1974, Seismic structural response risk analysis,
References:
incorporating peak response regressions on earthquake magnitude: (Cont'd) and distance: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Depart-ment of Civil Engineering, Research Report R74-51, August. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), 1985, Draft Safety Evalu-ation Report, Washington Public Power - Supply System Nuclear Project No. 3, Docket No. 50-508, November. Rasmussen, N., 1967, Washington state earthquakes, 1840-1965: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 57, pp. 463-476. Rogers, G.C.,1983, Seismotectonics of British Columbia, Thesis submitted in partial ful fillment of the requirements for the degree of Ph. D., University of British Columbia, pp. 22-23. Seekins, L.C. , and Hanks, T.C. , 1978, Strong-motion accelero-grams of the Oroville aftershocks and peak acceleration data: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 68, no. 3, pp. 677-689. Slemmons, D.B., 1982, Determination of design earthquake mag-nitudes for microzonation: Third International Earthquake Microzonation Conference Proceedings, v.1, pp.119-130. Toppozada, T.R., 1975, Earthquake magnitude as. a function of intensity data in California and western Nevada: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 61, pp.1223-1238. Townley, S.D., and Allen, M.W., 1939, Descriptive catalog of earthquakes of the Pacific coast of the United States, 1769-1929: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,
- v. 29, pp.1-297.
Washington Public Power Supply System (WPPSS), 1974, WPPSS Nuclear Project Nos. 3 and 5, Preliminary Safety Analysis Report, Section 2.5 Geology and Seismology: Washington Public Power Supply System, Richland, Washington. Washington Public Power Supply System (WPPSS), 1982, WPPSS Nuclear Project Nos. 3, Final Safety Analysis Report, Section 2.5 Geology and Seismology: Washington Public Power Supply System, Richland, Washington. i l i _ - _ - _ - _ - - - - _ -_ -l
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Table 230.4d-1. ' RECORDS USED IN STATISTICAL' ANALYSIS Epic-Earth'avake Name .Date Fault M1 Station Dist Cosp PGA. Type ; .. . No . the) . I Helena, Montana (A) !!/28/35 Normal 5.0. 2229 6.4 N00E -. 0.g)6 07 Helena, Montana (A) 11/28/35 Norsal- 5.0 2229 6.4 N90E 0.088 San Francisco, CA, 3/22/57 StrileSlip :5.3' 1117 11.7 N10E' O.105 . San Francisco, CA 3/22/57 ' StrikeSlip 5.3 1117 11.7 580E ; 0.127
. Lytte Creek, CA 9/12/70 Reverse 5.4" !!! . 18.9 S35E 0.086 Lytte Creek, CA . ~9/12/70 Reserse 5.4 Ill -18.9 S05N 0.057 Drovi'd h CA (AA) ~8/3/75 Normal ' 4.6 1543 2.7'.'S00E 0.255 Oroville, CA (AA) '8/3/75 , Normal 4.6 1543 2.7 N90E : 0.140 Oroville, {A (AF) ~. 8/6/75 Norsal 4.7 1543 2.8 S00E 0.470 Droville, 4.7 1543 2.8 N90E 0.229 Oroville, CA CA (AF)
(AKI 8/6/75' 8/8/75 . Normal Normal 4.9' 1551 5.8 S55E 0.077
- Droville, CA (AK).- 8/8/?5 'Norsal. 4.9 1551 ' 5.8- N35E 0.109 Droville, CA (AK) ' 8/8/75 Normal 4.9 1543 ' l .1 500E . 0.274' Droville, CA (AK)- 8/8/75 Norsal 4.9 1543 1.1 . N90E 0.116 Greville, CA (AU). 9/27/75 Normal 4.6 1495' 10.2 . N90W 0.155 .
Droville, CA IAU)L 9/27/75 Noraal 4.6 1495 10.2' S00E 0.075
- Droville, CA (AU) 9/27/75 Normal 4.6 1543- 2.1 S00E 0.163
-Greville, CA (AU) 9/27/75 . Norsal 4.6 1543 2.11 N90E 0.203 Oroville, CA (AU) 9/27/75 Normal 4.6 1552 20.8 N20W 0.067 Draville, CA (AU)- 9/27/75; Noreal 4.6 1552 20.8 S70W- 0.050 Friuli Sq ,ltaly '09/11/76 Reverse 5.5 8019 10.0 NORT 0.039 friuli Se iltaly 09/11/76 Reverse- 5.5 - 801a 10.0 EAST . 0.034 Friuli Se ,ltaly 09/11/76 Reverse 5.5 .8022 15.5 NORT' O.042 Friuli Se . Italy 09/11/76 Reverse 5.5 8022 15.5 EAST 0.071 Coalinga, CA A303 - 05/09/83 Reverse 5.1 46 4.1 N90E 0.353.
Coatinga, CA AS03 05/09/83 Re,erse 5.1 46 4.1- N00E 0.302
- Coatinga, CA9503 05/09/83 Reverse 5.1 61 3.3- N00E~ 0.114
'Coatinga, CA AS03 05/09/83 Reverse. 5.1 61 3.3 N90W 0.152
- Coalinga, CA AS03 05/09/83 Reverse 5.1 - 65 1.3 N00E: 0.177 Coatiaca, CA A503 05/09/93- Reverse 5.1 65 1.3 N90W 0.240 Coalinga, CA ASIO 07/09/83 Reverse 5.3 46 14.4 N90E 0.074
' Coalinga, CA ASIO- 07/09/83 Reverse 5.3 46 14.4 . N00E 1 0.056 Coalinga, CA AS13 07/21/83 Keverse LO 46 11.2 MOE 0.031 Coalinga, CA AS13 07/21/83 Reverse 5.0 46 11.2 N00E 0.045 Coatinoa, CA ASl4' 07/25/83 Reverse 5.1 46 12.0 N90E 0.201 Coatin<ja,C4AS14 07/25/83 Reverse 5.1 46 12.0 N00E 0.178 l) !
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REFERENCE 5': -
- 01. 'USGS:'(1981).- " Western Hemisphere Strong-Motic;i Accelerograph Station List -
1980." ,0 pen File Report No. 81-664. Compileo by.Jc Switzer, D.. Johnson, R.' Maley and R. Matthiesen. .Tanuary.
- 02. Shannon A Wilson.,Inc., and Agbabian~ Associates (1980). '"Geotechnical Data from
- Accelerograph Stations. Investigated During the Period 1975-1979; Summary Report." NUREG/CR-1643,. Prepared for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatary Commission.
LSeptember. 150 p.
.03. 'NOAA (1928 H Annual). " United States Earthquakes." '
'04~ . EERI (1971). " Study of Strong Motion Instrument Locations in Northern
- California." Report of EERI Committee on Cooperative. Programs with NOAA.
December.
- 05. L*oodward-Lundgren Associates (1973).- "Geotechnical Data Compilation for Selected .
Strong Motion Seismograph Sites in California." ' Report prepared for NOAA.
' December.
- 06. CDMG. " Geologic Map of California."
- 07. USGS (1986). " Strong-Motion Program Report, January-December 1983." .USGS '
' ; Circular 971. R. Porcella, editor.
'08. Fumal, T. E...J. F. Gibbs and E. F. Both (1984) "In-Situ Measurements of Seismic Velocity at 16 Locations in the Los Angeles, California Region." USGS Oper.. File Report 84-681.
LO9. Fumal, T. E., J. F. Gibbs and E. F. Roth (1984). "Near-Surface Geology and-Seismic Wave Velocities at Six Strong-Motion' Stations Near Gilroy, California." in The Morgan Hill, California Earthquake, CDMG Special Publication 68.
- 10. Porcella, R. L., R. B. Matthiesen and R. P. Maley (1982). " Strong-Motion Data Recorded in the United States," in The Imperial Valley, California, Earthquake
'of October 15, 1979, USGS Professional Paper 1254, pp. 289-318.
- 11. Anderson, J. G., J. N. Brune, J. Prince and F. L. Vernon. III (1983).
" Preliminary Report on the Use of Digital Strong Motion Recorders in the Mexicali Valley, Baja California." BSSA, Vol. 73, No. 5, pp. 1451-1467. October.
~12. Hartzell, S. (1980). " Faulting Process of the May 17, 1976 Gazli, USSR Earthquake." BSSA, Vol. 70 No. 5, pp. 1715-1736, October.
.13. Weichert, D. H., R. J. Weteiller and P. Munro (1986). " Vertical Earthquake Acceleration Exceeding 2 g7 The Case of the Missing Peak." BSSA, Vol. 76, No. 5, pp. 1473-1478, October. i
- 14. CDMG (1980). " Strong-Motion Records from the Livermore Earthquake of 24 and 26 January 1980." Office of Strong Motion Studies Preliminary Report 28.
- 15. Shoja-Taheri, J., and J. G. Anderson (1986). "The 1978 Tabas Iran Earthquake:
An Interpretation of the Strong Motion Records." Paper, Personal Communication.
-16.-CDMG (1984). "CSMIP Strong-Motion Records from the Bishop, California Earthquake l of-'23 November 1984." Office of Strong Motion Studies Report OSMS 84-12.
December. L i 17. CDMG (1986). "CSMIP Strong-Motion Records from the Palm Springs, California ( . Earthquake of 8 July 1986." office of Strong Motion Studies Report OSMS 86-05 August. j l l: a I.
. i l
s
'18. McJunkin,.R. D., and A. F..Shakal (1983). "The Parkfield Strong-Motion Array."-
- in Califorria Geology, February, pp. 27-34.
- 19. CDMO. (1%6) . ' " Processed Data from the Strong-Motion-Records' of the Morgan Hill Earthquake of 24 April 1984; Part I. Ground-Response Records." Office of Scrong - .
]
Motion Studies Report OSMS'85-04. May. !
'20.'Maley. R. P.land W. R. Cloud (1971).
- Strong-Motion Accelerograph Records." in Strong Motion Instrumental Data on the San Fernando Earthquake of February 9, )
1971 D.E. Hudson,~ editor. ' Published jointly by CIT and NOAA. pp. 1-53 j
'21. Shakal..A. F., and J. T. Ragsdale.(1983). " Strong-Motion Data from the Coalinga, California Earthquhke and Aftershocks."-in The 1983 Coalinga, California Earthquakes, CDMG Special Publication 66, pp. 321-335 122. Ambraseys, N. (1987).. Personal Communication.
]
I
- 23. Sabetta. F. , and Pugliese, A. (1987). " Attenuation of Peak Horizontal ']
Acceleration and. Velocity from Italian Strong-Motion Records", BSSA, Vol. 77, No.' 5. October.
- 24. Berardi R., Berenzi .A., and Capozza, F. (1981). "Campania-Lucania Earthquakes on'23 November 1980. Accelerometric Recordings of the Main Quake and Relating Processing", Report presented to the Annual Meeting of Geodynamic Project on Italy's Seismicity, Udine, May 12-14.
i l
WASHINGTON SDSlJICITY Al reas 44 #c cFIENDt b b W + + M-o 00 l o a o O o g Q
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- 1. APM C2,183f611:15 h43.300 W123.300 sepm NA meg 8.00W Int W v 2. vd. is.1930 02.J8 N45.ouc wt2.3mo see m mag 5 002 N V O ~" O ~ "" m W:n = ='aii::= :: = =*
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- o " " 70 in Site Province ,.'
9 meg 3 O N 1870 o mg2 o PRI 1970
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Figure 230.4d-3' Plot of Individual Response Spectra in Data Set i
9 4 . . ....g . . . . ..i,j . . .
- --- ~ station 1543 3.5 - ---- other stations -
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.02 .05 .1 .2 ' .5 1 2 5 Period (sec) 1 Figure 230.4d-4 Comparison of Median Spectral Shapes for Rock Recordings at Groville Station DWR and Other Oroville Rock Sites l
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i 1 Figure 230.4d-6 Effect of Including Db'R Recordings on Statistical Spectra i i 1 I l
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Ouestion No. 230.5 (SRP Estimate site-specific spectra for a range of percentiles for the
-2.5.2.4, maximum earthquake on the Olympia Lineament, using strong-motion 2.5.2.6) data in the appropriate magnitude and distance range. Justify the SSE spectra in light of the site-specific spectra.
Response
The maximum. earthquake on the Olympia Lineament has been estimated to have a magnitude of 7.5 and to be located at a distance of 35 km from the site (Section 2.5.2.4.2.3 of FSAR, WPPSS,1982). Site-specific spectra are typically evaluated by conducting a statistical analysis of spectra from strong motion recording in the appropriate magnitude, distance, and site conditions categories. Figure 230.5-1 shows a scattergram of the 26 available strong motion recordings obtained on rock or rock-like site conditions during events of magnitude greater than or equal to 6.5 at dis-tances to rupture of 50 km or less. As can be seen, there are no ; recordings in the appropriate magnitude and distance range. Accordingly, the site-specific ground motions for the maximum Olympia lineament earthquake were estimated using two alternative approaches. In the first approach, the available recordings were scaled to magnitude 7.5 and distance 35 km using generalized atten-uation relationships for response spectral ordinates. A statis-tical analysis of the scaled spectra was tnen performed to develop the site-specific spectra. The available recordings are listed in Table 230.5-1, and Table 230.5-2 summarizes the information for the recording stations. In the second approach, a direct assessment of the rock-site response spectra for the maximum Olympia Lineament event was made using generalized attenuation relationships. Attenuation Relationships: The empirical attenuation relationships used in the analyses were selected from those developed primarily on the basis of strong ground motion recorded in the western United States, mainly California. Studies by Malone and Bor (1979) and Singh and Herrmann (1983) have shown that the seismic wave attenu-ation characteristics in western Washington are similar to those of Cali fornia. Ground motion attenuation relationships for response spectral ordinates appropriate to rock site conditions have been published by Joyner and Boore (1982) and Sadigh (1983). The relationships published by Sadigh (1983) have been updated (Sadigh and others,1986; Geomatrix Consultants,1987) incorporating strong motion data obtained since 1980 and are considered to be the most appropriate relationships for evaluating strong motions on rock-site conditions in the western United States. The relationship for median peak ground acceleration on rock (zero period acceleration) developed oy knmatrix Cons"ltar,t3 (1987) is: in (amax) = -0.779 + 1.02 M - 2.1 in (R + 0.88 e0.47M)
Question !Jo. 230.5- where M is moment ' magnitude and R is closest distance to the Response: rupture surface. The dispersion of. data about the median relation-(Cont'd) ship is characterized by a lo normal distribution with a standard error of 0.35 for in (a max for events of magnitude 6.5 and greater. The median and 84 h percentile level s of peak hori-zontal acceleration obtained for a magnitude 7.5 event at 35 km using this relationship are 0.19 g and 0.27 g, respectively. The response spectral shape relationships developed by Sadigh (1983) and Sadigh and others (1986) were used, along with the Geomatrix Consultants (1987) peak acceleration relationship, to develop spectral acceleration attenuation relationships. These spectral shape relationships are summarized as follows:. for T = 0.1 sec in (S,/amax) = 0.718 + 0.007 (8.5 - M b for T = 0.2 sec in (Sa /amax) = 0.927 + 0.008 (8.5 - M)2.5 for T = 0.3 sec in (S,/a g,x) = 0.863 + 0.018 (8.5 - M)U for T = 0.5 sec in (S a/amax) = 0.613 + 0.036 (8.5 - M) for T = 1.0 sec in (S a/amax) = 0.030 + 0.065 (8.5 - M) for T = 2.0 sec in (S,/a g,x) = -0.736 + 0.100 (8.5 - M)2.5 for T = 4.0 see in IS,/amax) = -1.771 + 0.150 (9.5 - M)2.5 The standard error of in(Sa) varies from 0.37 at a period of 0.1 second to 0.45 at periods of 1 second or longer. The relationship published by Joyner and Boore (1982, as modified for random components of motion by Joyner and Fumal,1985) is: log (amax) = 0.43 + 0.23 (M-6) - log R - 0.0027R where M is moment magnitude and R = (d2 +8) 2 with d being the closest distance to the surface projection of rupture. The dispersion in the data is characterized by a standard error of 0.28 for log (amax). This relationship yields estimates of 0.13 g and 0.25 g for redian and 84th percentile values, respectively, for the maximum Olympia Lineament event. Joyner and Boore (1982) also list attenuation relationships for spectra velocity for 12 periods between 0.1 and 4.0 seconds. Campbell (1987) also has recently published attenuation relation-ships for peak acceleration based on soil site data. Campbell indicates that the relationships are probably also applicable to rock-site conditions at source-to-site distance of 50 km or less. His relationship is: in (amax) = -3.303 + 0.85 M -1.25 i n (R + 0.087e0.678M) - 0.0059R l
Question No. 230.5 where M is equivalent to moment magnitude and R is closest distance Response: to the seismogenic part of. the rupture surface. The dispersion (Cont'd) about the median relationship is characterized by a standard error of 0.30 for in(amax). Campbell's (1987) relationship is for the average of two horizontal components and yields estimates of 0.135 g ana 0.183 g for median and 84th percentile peak accelerations, respectively, for the maximum Olympia Lineament event. Statistical Analysis of Scaled Spectra: The site-specific spectra was estimated by conducting a statistical analysis of the response spectra for the recordings listed in Table 230.5-1 scaled to mag-nitude 7.5 and distance 35 km. As Campbell (1987) has not pub-lished attenuation relationships for spectral ordinates, only the relationships developed by Geomatrix Consultants (1987) and Joyner and Boore (1982) were used to scale the spectra. Campbell's (1987) relationship was used to obtain statistical estimates of the scaled peak accelerations. The scaling factors for peak acceleration obtained using the three relationships are listed in Table 230.5-1. All three relationships yielded similar scaling factors. The spectral ordinates at periods of 0.1 seconds and greater were scaled using the attenuation relationships for response spectral ordinates. Scaling factors intermediate between those periods for which attenuation relationships were available were obtained by interpolation. The statistical analysis was performed on the log of spectral acceleration. Studies (Esteva,1969; Donovan, i973; McGuire,1974; Campbell, 1981; and Abrahamson, 1987) have shown that the vari-ability in recorded ground motions are best modeled by a lognormal distribution. I 1 The results of the analysis are shown in Figure 230.5-2 in terms of ! the median (mean log Sa), mean, 84th percentile of fitted log j normal distribution and 84th-percentile-of-the-data spectral l values for a damping ratio of 5 percent. As can be seen, the SSE design spectrum envelopes the computed statistical response spectra with the exception of an exceedance at a period of approximately 1 second by a pronounced peak in the 84th- percentile-of-the-data spectra. Examination of the individual response spectra indicated that the 1-second-period peak in the 84th percentile spectra from the presence of a large pulse at this period in the recordings obtained from the 1971 magnitude 6.6 San Fernando earthquake. The records from this event make up over one-third of the selected data set. As indicated in Table 230.5-1, recordings from the main shock of the 1983 Coalinga earthquake also make up about one-third of the 1 data set, with the remaining one-third from four other earth- I quakes. A weighted statistical analysis was performed to evaluate I l i f L__- _ - _
l' Question No. 230.5 the effect of the unequal distribution of the number of recordings Response: from individual earthquakes. The spectra for each earthquake were (Cont'd) assigned a weight inversely proportional to the number of record-ings from that earthquake in the data set. Figure 230.5-3 presents the resulting statistical spectra. The peak in the statistical spectra at 1 second has been reduced in amplitude reflecting the fact that the recordings from other earthquakes do not system-atically contain a peak at this period. The statistics of magnitude, distance and peak acceleration for the two analyses are: Data Set Data Set Mean Scaled Peak Mean Distance Scaling Acceleration (g) Analysis Magnitude (km) Relationships Median Mean 84th% unweighted 6.7 24.8 Geomatrix (1987) 0.1 91 0.208 0.295 Joyner and Boore 0.182 0.198 0.279 (1982) Campbell (1987) 0.197 0.21 4 0.301 weighted 6.8 18.1 Geomatrix (1987) 0.177 0.193 0.274 Joyner and Boore 0.172 0.188 0.264 (1982) Campbell (1987 ) 0.1 81 0.197 0.277 The response spectra shown in Figures F ,-2 and 230.5-3 may be somewhat conservative because nearly all of the recordings in the data set are from thrust faulting events, while postulated events on the Olympia Lineament. would be normal faulting earthquakes (FSAR, Section 2. 5.1.1. 4 . 3.1. 2 ) . Theoretical studies by McGarr (1984) have suggested that reverse faulting earthquakes may produce larger ground motions than strike-slip and normal faulting earth-quakes. The studies presented in Geomatrix Consultants (1987) indicate that reverse faulting earthquakes may produce ground motions on the order of 20 percent higher than strike-slip earth-quakes in the near-field but the differences tend to diminsh with distance. Campbell (1987), however, suggests that the primary dif-ference is between dip-slip faulting and strike-slip faulting and both normal and thrust faulting events may produce higher motions than strike-slip cvents. Campbell (1987) also indicates that the higher motions would occur in the near-field (at distances less than one focal depth) and at greater distances there should be little aifference or dip-slip events may produce lower motions. Ouestion No. 230.5 - The spectral exceedances -shown in Figures 230.5-2 and 210.5-3 are Response: deemed not significant from a structural point of view. At 3.5 Hz, (Cont'd) the reactor shield building has the lowest fundamental frequency, and, therefore, the modest exceedance of the SSE design spectrum in the neighborhood of 1 Hz (i.e., periods exceeding one second) is not significant. Inspection of the classical frequency response function shows that the transmissibility for a frequency ratio of 0.3 (1.0/3.5) is essentially unity. Thus, the shield building and nuclear island structures will respond statically to the 1 Hz ground motion frequency components and remain significantly bounded by the structural responses at or near resonance. Additionally, the ground motion exceedances occur at frequencies which are char-acteristically much lower than subsystem natural frequencies. For example, piping system fundamental frequencies range from approxi-mately 5 to 9 Hz, and will likewise respond as rigid bodies to the building-filtered low frequency ground motion exceedances. Estimates from Empirical Attenuation Relationships: The two sets of empirical attenuation relationships for spectral ordinates des-cribed above were used to make a direct estimate of the site-specific response spectra for the maximum Olympia Lineament event. Figure 230.5-4 compares the resulting median and 84 th percentile spectra with the SSE design spectrum. As can be seen, the esti-mated spectra are well below the SSE spectrum. Figure 230.5-5 compares the empirical estimates of response spectra . with the results of the unweighted statistical analysis. The ; median spectra obtained by the two approaches are very similar while the 84th-percentil e stati stical spectra are generally higher than the empirical 84th-percentile spectra. The differ-ences in the 84th-percentile spectra arise because the standard error calculated from the statistical analysis of the limited data set listed in Table 230.5-1 is larger than the standard error developed for the empirical relationships on the basis of regres-sion analyses using a much larger data set. On the basis of the results presented in Figures 230.5-2 through 230.5-4, the SSE spectrum is judged to be adequate in relationship to ground motions from the postulated maximum event on the Olympia Lineament.
References:
Abrahamson, N. A. , 1987, Some statistical properties of peak ground , accelerations (abs.h Seismological Research Letters, v. 58, pp. I 29-30. Campbell , K.W., 1981, Near-source attenuation of peak horizontal acceleration: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,
- v. 71, no. 6, pp. 2039-2370.
l
)
Question No. 230.5 Campbell, K.W.,1987, Strong motion attenuation in Utah, in evalu- l
References:
ation of urban .and regional earthquake hazards and risk in Utah: TCont'd) U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper (in press). J Donovan, N.C., 1973, A statistical evaluation of strong motion j data, including the February 9, 1971 San Fernando earthquake: J' Proceedings of the Fifth World Conference on Earthquake Engineer-ing, Rome, 25-29 June 1973, v.1, pp.1252-1261. I' Esteva, L., 1969, Seismicity prediction: A Bayesian approach: Proceedings of the Fourth World Conference on Earthquake Engineer-ing, Santiage, Chile, January 13-18, v.1, p. AL 172-184. Geomatrix Consultants, 1987, Empirical ground motions investi-gations for Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Diablo Canyon Power Plant LTSP: Report for Pacific Gas and Electric Company, in preparation. Joyner, W.B., and Boore, D.M., 1982, Prediction of earthquake response spectra: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 82-977. j Joyner, W.'8., and Fumal, T.E.,1985, Predictive map ~ ping of earth-quake ground motion, in evaluating earthqdake hazards in the Los Angeles region: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1360. Mal one, S.D. , and S.-S., Bor, 1979, Attenuation patterns in the Pacific Northwest based on intensity data and the location of the 1872 North Cascades earthquake: Bulletin of the Seismology Society of America, v. 69, no. 2, pp. 531-546. McGarr, A. , 1984, Scaling of ground motion parameters, state of stress, and focal depth: Juurnal of Geophysical Research, v. 89, no. B, pp. 6969-6579. McGuire, R.K., 1974, Seismic structural response risk analysi s, incorporating peak response regressions on earthquake magnitude and distance: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering, Research Report R74-51, August. Sadigh, K., 1983, Considerations in the development of site-specific spectra, in proceedings of Conference XXII, site-specific effects of soil and rock on ground motion and the impli-cations for earthquake resistant design: ti. S. Geological Survey Open File Report 83-845. Sadigh, K., Egan, J,A., and R.R. Youngs,1986, Specifications of ground motion for seismic design of long period structures (abs.): Earthquake Notes, v. 57, no.1, pp.1-13. L _--_ _
puestionNo.
- ~230.5 Singh,-'S., and R.B. : Herrmann, .1983, Regionalization of crustal coda
References:
Q.Lin the . continental Uni ted . ' States: Journal. of Geophysical , p , (Cont'd) Research, .v. 88, no. B-1, pp. 527-538. Washington Public' Power Supply System (WPPSS),1982, WPPSS . Nuclear Project 3, Final Safety Analysis Report, 2.5 Geology and Seis-mology: Washington Public Power Supply System, Richland, Washington. I 1 1 i !' ? L Table 230.5-1 REC 0RD5 USED in STAilSilCAL ANiiLYSIS i-l Earthquake Naev Date Fault Mw Station Dist Comp Aaas Scaling Factor Type Iks) (g) Beos J-B Caso Sanferaando,CA 02/09/7] Thrust 6.6 279 2.8 516E 1.170 0.267? P.3206 0.2571 f.. San Fernando, CA , 02/09/71 Thrust. 6.6 279- . 2.8 574W 1.0Sa 0.2677 0.3206 0.2371 L, San Fernando. CA 02/09/71 Thrust. 6.6 266 19.1 500W 0.096 0.8419 0.9452 0.9162 I' San Fernaado, CA 02/09/71 Thrust 6.6 266 19.1 590W 0.204 ~ 0.8449 0.6452 0.9162 San Fernendo. G 02/09/71 Thrust 6.6 126 24.2 567E 0.200 1.0960 1.9717 1.1743 San Fernando, CA 02/09/71 Thrust 6.6 126 24.2 521W 0.159 1.0H0 1.0717 1.1743 San Ferr,ando, C e 02/'M/71 Thrust 6.6 127 23.5 N21E 0.147 1.0575 1.0305 !.1374
?
Gan Fernando, u 02/09/71 Thrust e.6 127 23.5 N69W 0.131 1.0595 1.0305 1.1374 San Fernando. IA 02/09/71 Thrust 6.6 128 20.3 N21E 0.374 0.9000 0.6065 0.9747 San Fernando, CA 02/09/71 Thrust 6.6 126 20.3 N0ct 0.288 0.9009 0.89o9 0.9747 San Fernaxdo, CA 02/09/7.1 1hrust 6.6 22L 15.3 N00E 0.181 0.6000 0.6898 0.7398 SanFernando,CA 02/09/71 Thru2t 6.6 220 15.3 590W 0.154 0.6800 0.6098 0.7398 San Fernande, CA 02/09/71 Thrust 6.4 141 17A 500W 0.188 0.7A98 0.7742 0.B356
. San Fernande, CA 02/09/71 T'n rust 6.6 141 17.4 $90W' O.180 0.768B 0.7742 t.8256 San Fernando CA 02/09/71 Thrust 6.6 121 29.1 N56E 0.068 t.3695 1.3066 1.t455 Fan Fernahdo, CA J2/09/71 Thrust 6.6 121 29.1 N34W 0.103 1.3695 1.3066 1.4455 San Fernando, CA 02/09/71 T1 rust' 6.6 104 27.0 NO3E 0.172 1.2484 !.2039 1 3265 i Sin Fernando, CA 02/09/71. Thrust 6.6 104 27.0 NB7W .0.223 1.2484 1.2039 !.3265 San Fernano, CA 02/09/71 Thnst 6.6 278 50.4 N55E 0.078 2.9351 2.5151 2.9W3 San Fernando, CA 02/09/71 Thrust 6.6 27R 50.4 N35W 0.039 2.9351 2.5151 2.9023 6421i, USSR 05/17/76 Thrust- 6.8 9201 3.6 NDRT 0.655 0.2642 0.?000 0.2517 Ga!,li, USSR 05/17/76 Thrust 6.B hol 3.0 EAST 0.699 0.2642 0.2908 0.2517 Tabas, Iran 09/16/78 Tt> rust 7.4 9101 3.0 N16E 0.810 0.2430 0.2117 0.2249 lahas, Iran 09/16/78 Thrust 7.4 9101 3.0 N74E 0.700 0.2430 0.2117 0.2249 1abas,tran 09/16/78 Thrust 7A 9102 17.0 N90W 0.379 0.5258 0.4961 0.5327 Tabas, Iran 09/16/78 Thrust 7A 9102 17.0 N10E 0.391 0.5258 0.4961 0.5327 lacerial Valley (M) 10/15/79 SnikeS11p 6.5 256 26.0 S45E 0.210 1.2667 1.2190 1.35B3 feerial V611ey (M) 10/15/79 StrikeSlip 6.5 206 26.0 N45E C.120 1,2667 1.2190 1.3533 leperial valley M) 10/15/79 StrikeSlip 6.5 6604 23.5 N57W 0.157 1.1224 1.0961 1.2135
!acerial Valley M) 10/15/*19 StrileSli; 6.5 6604 23.5 S33E 0.166 1.1224 1.0961 1.2135 1rpi9ia, Italy 11/23/B0 Norsal 6.8 bl B.0 N00E 0.133 0.3903 0.3916 0.4037 Irpinia,Itali ll/23/B0 Noreal 6.8 B-1 0.0 N90E 0.191 0.3901 04916 0.4037 Irpinia, Italy 11/23/B0 Norsai 6.8 Cal 20.5 N00E 0.159 0.8195 0.8145 0.8719 Irpinia, Italy 11/23/90 Noreal 6.8 Cal 20.5 N?0E 0.177 0.8195 0.?!45 0.9719 Coatinga, CA Main 05/02/B3 Thrust 6.5 46175 35.0 N45E 0.173 1.8624 1.6982 1.9339 Coalinga, CA Main 05/02/83 Thrust 6.5 46175 35.0 545E 0.137 1.8624 1.6932 1.9339 Lealinga, G Main 05/02/83 Tu nst 6.5 36177 33.7 N65E 0.179 1.7467 1.6255 1.8455 Coalinga, CA Main 05/02/83 Thret 6.5 36177 33.7 N2% 0.122 1.7629 1.6255 1.2455 Coalinga, CA Main 05/02/93 Thrs t 6.5 36176 41.2 S70E 0.139 2.3430 2.0615 2.3813 Coalinga, CA Main 05/02/83 Thrust 6.5 36176 41.2 WiOE 0.101 2.3430 2.0615 2.3213 Coalinga, CA Main 05/02/83 Thrust 6.5 36438 43.2 N90E 0.065 2.5!03 2.1846 2.5348 ikalinga, CA Main 05/02/83 Thrust 6.5 36428 43.2 N00E 0.074 2.5103 2.1846 2.5349 Coalinga, CA Main 05/02/83 Thrust 65 36422 49.1 N90E 0.089 3.0395 2.5646 3.0145 Coalinga, CA Main 05/02/83 Thrust 6.5 36422 49.1 N00E 0.062 3.0395 2.5646 3.0145 Coatinga, CA Main 05/02/03 Thrus't 6.5 36453 39.6 N90E 0.087 2.2134 1.9652 2.2618 Coalinga, CA Main 05/02/83 Thrust 6.5 36453 39.6 N00E 0.079 2.2114 1.9652 2.261b Coalinga, CA Main 05/02/33 Thrust 6.5 36444 41.3 N90E 0.133 2.3512 2.0676 2.3889 Coalinga, CA tain 05/02/03 Thrust 6.5 36444 41.3 N00E 0.075 2.3512 2.0676 2.3589 Coalingh CA Main 05/02!B3 Thrust 6.5 36420 50.2 N90E 0.123 3.1440 2.6384 3.1085 Coalinga, ;A Main 05/W/83 Thrust t, . 5 36420 50.2 N00E 0.133 3.1440 2.6394 3.1055 Nahanni, Canada 12/23/85 Thrust 6.9 0 6.0 N10E 1.101 0.3226 0.3250 0.3290 hahanni, Canada 12/23/85 Thrust 6.9 0 6.0 NB0W 1.345 0.3286 0J258 0.3290 ,
Nahanni. Canada 12/23/25 Thrust 6.9 0 B.O N30W 0.418 0.3789 0.3716 0.3373 i Nahanni, Canada 12/23/85 Thrust 6d 0 6.0 560W 0.58i 0.3759 0.3716 0.32"5 Nahanni. Canada 12/23r$$ Thrust 6.7 h 16.0 N 0E 0.1% 0.6176 0.6121 0.6527 Nauo,u. Canaea 12/23!SS Thrust o.4 0 16.0 N% 0.!6i 0.6176 0.61?1 0.e527 ___________-______________a
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REFERENCES:
.01. ,USGS (1981).. " Western Hemisphere St.rong-Motion Accelerograph Station List -
. 1980." Open File Report No. 81-664.
Compiled by J. Switzer, D. Johnson, R. Maley and R. Matthiesen. January.
- 02. Shannon & Wilson, Inc., and Agbabian Associates (1980). "Geotechnical Data fron Accelerograph Stations Investigated During the Period 1975-1979; Summary Report." NUREG/CR-1643. Prepared for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
September. 150 p. 03 NOAA (1928 - Annual). " United States Earthquakes."
- 04. EERI (1971). " Study of Strong Motion Instrument Locations in Northern
' California." Report of EERI Committee on Cooperative Programs with NOAA.
December.
- 05. Woodward-Lundgren Associates (1973). "Geotechnical Data Compilation for Selected Strong Motion Seismograph Sites in California." Report prepared for NOAA.
December.
- 06. CDMG. " Geologic Map of California."
- 07. USGS (1986). " Strong-Motion Program Report, January-December 1983." USGS Circular 971. R. Porcella, editor.
- 08. Fumal, T. E., J. F. Gibbs and E. F. Both (1984). "In-Situ Measurements of Seismic Velocity at 16 Locations in the Los Angeles, California Region." USGS Open File Report 84-681.
- 09. Fumal T. E., J. F. Gibbs and E. F. Roth (1984). "Near-Surface Geology and Seismic Wave Velocities at Six Strong-Motion Stations Near Gilroy, California."
in The Morgan Hill, California Earthquake, CDMG Special Publication 68.
- 10. Porcella, R. L., R. B. Matthiesen and R. P. Maley (1982). " Strong-Motion Data Recorded in the United States." it. The Imperial Valley, California Earthquake of October 15, 1979. USGS Professional Paper 1254, pp. 289-318.
11., Anderson, J. G. , J. N. Brune, J. Prince and F. L. Vernon, III (1983) .
" Preliminary Report on the Use of Digital Strong Motion Recorders in the Mexicali Valley, Baja California." BSSA, Vol. 73, No. 5, pp. 1451-1467, October.
- 12. Hartzell, S. (1980). " Faulting Process of the May 17, 1976 Gazli, USSR Earthquake." BSSA, Vol. 70, No. 5, pp. 1715-1736, October.
- 13. Weichert, D. H., R. J. Wetmiller and P. Munro (1986). " Vertical Earthquake Acceleration Exceeding 2 g7 The Case of the Missing Peak." BSSA, Vol. 76, No. 5, pp. 1473-1478, October.
- 14. CDMG (1980). " Strong-Motion Records from the Livermore Earthquake of 24 and 26 January 1980." Office of Strong Motion Studies Preliminary Report 28.
- 15. Shoja-Taheri. J., and J. G. Anderson (1986). "The 1978 Tabas, tran Earthquake: )
An Interpretation of the Strong Motion Records." Paper, Personal Communication-f 16. CDMG (1984). "CSMIP Strong-Motion Records from the Sishop, California Earthquake l of 23 November 1984." Office of Strong Motion Studies Report OSMS 84-12. l December. l
- 17. CDMG (1986). "CSMIP Strong-Motion Records from the Palm Springs, California Earthquake of 8 July 1986." Office of Strong Motion Studies Report OSMS 86-05 August.
( 1 f.- \ k l
- 18. McJunkin, R. D., and A. F. Shakal (1983). "The Patkrield Strong-Motion Array."
in Cr.lifornia Geology, February, pp. 27-34.
- 19. CDMG (1986). ~" Processed Data from the Strong-Motion Records of the Morgan Hill Earthquake of 24 April-- 1984: Part I. Ground-Response Records." Office of Strong Motion Studies Report OSMS 85-04. May.
- 20. Maley, R. P. and W. R. Cloud (1971). " Strong-Motion Accelerograph Records." in Strong Motion Instrumental Data on the San Fernando Earthquake of February 9, 1971. D.E. Hudson, editor. Published jointly by CIT and NOAA. pp. 1-53
- 21. Shakal, A. F., and J. T. Ragsdale (1983). " Strong-Motion Data from the Coalinga, California Earthquake and Aftershocks." in The 1983 Coalinga, California Earthquakes, CDMG Special Publication 66, pp. 321-335
- 22. Ambraseys, N. (1987). Personal Communication.
- 23. Sabetta, F., and Pugliese, A. (1987). " Attenuation of Peak Horizontal Acceleration and Velocity from Italian Strong-Motion Records", BSSA, Vol. 77.
No. 5, October.
- 24. Berardi, R., Berenzi, A., and Capozza, F. (1981). "Campania-Lucania Earthquakes on 23 November 1980 Accelerometric Recordings of the Main Quake and Relating Processing", Report pres (nted to the Annual Meeting of Geodynamic Project on Italy's Seismicity, Udino, May 12-14.
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6 O 10 20 30 40 50 60 Distance (km) i Figure 230.5-1. Scattergram of Recordir.gs Used in Analysis l l ~ - _ _ _ _ __- -_
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( Figure 230.5-2. Site-Specific Spectra Based on Statistical Analysis of Recorded Spectra Scaled to Magnitude 7.5 and Distance 35 km l l w-____ - - - _ _ _ - .- _ --- - - - - - _ - - -
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..m__m _m__m__.. ._,_ _ _ _ - . - -.---i--------- -- - - " - - - - - -
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Figure 230.5-4. Site-Specific Spectra Based on Empirical Attenuation Relationships i l l i j 1 i ______________.J
Geomatrix (1987) Joyner cnd Boore (1982) 1.4 ,......j . . . . . 43 . .. . . . ....j.
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---- Sto5e$ca! ---- Stats 6 cal (
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Figure 230.5-5 Cottparison of Statistical and Empirical l Site-Specific Spectra i i e . _ _ . _ _ _ . . - -- __ _ _ _ _ _ - . _ _ _ _-_-____.-_._______b}}