ML20133M575

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Summarizes Issues & Matters That Should Be Covered at State of PA Depositions in May.Ltr Includes Only Beaver Valley Dynamic Stress Analysis & Turbine Spindle Issues.Later Ltr Will Cover Low Head Injection Pump & Chronology History
ML20133M575
Person / Time
Site: Beaver Valley, 05000000
Issue date: 05/05/1980
From: Levin J
PENNSYLVANIA, COMMONWEALTH OF
To: Russell W
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
Shared Package
ML20133M133 List:
References
FOIA-85-301 NUDOCS 8508130174
Download: ML20133M575 (10)


Text

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^ Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission North Office Building P. O. Box 3265 Harrisburg, PA 17120 May 5, 1980 Mr. William T. Russell Office of Noclear Reactor Regulation Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C. 20555

Dear Bill:

Subject:

NRC Staff Testimony The following is a summary of the issues and matters I think we should y

cover at the Pennsylvania depositions iri May, note that this letter includes only the Beaver Valley dynamic stress analysis and turbine spindle issues.

My following letter will cover the low-head injection pump and chronology -

history of inspection issues.

First, each witness should probably pr'epare a qualifications summary in written form. I will have the reporter insert each summary into the record at the outset, to save time. I have enclosed an example of expert qualification testimony submitted in another proceeding. Each witness should include a complete summary, with dates, of educational qualifications after high school or preparatory school, nature of educational concentration, any educational or professional scholarships or awards, work experience, and nature of duties to the present (emphasizing and describing in detail NRC employment), professional papers and articles authored or co-authored, membership in professional organ-izations, major work projects completed or in progress, testimony (and in what areas) given before courts, legislative bodies or administrative agencies and any other relevant factors or experience which would cause the Public Utility Commission to regard the witness as an expert in the specific areas to be addressed. Finally, if any witness holds a security clearance or is otherwise restricted from testifying on some aspect of work experience, so indicate.

Definitions - Dynamic Stress Analysis It is desireable.to define, at the outset all of the numerous technical .

terms and abbreviations to be used in testimony. Ordinarily, we would prepare a glossary in written form, but that is impractical in this proceeding. I have culled a few of the more difficult and important terms from the literature which could stand definition.

- dynamic stress analysis

- static stress analysis

- intermodal combination

- intramodal combination

- shock spectrum 8508130174 850703 PDR- FOIA HERRMAN85-301 PDR

Mr. William T. Russell Page 2 May 5, 1980

- two directional and three directional analysis

- single and multiple pulse quakes

- RMS

- algebraic, square root sum of the squares (SRSS) and absolute summations

- response spectrum analysis

- ASME codes

- Regulatory Guides, and 91.92

- FSAR

- SER

- linear combination among nodes

- absolute combination among nodes

- SHOCK I code >

- SHOCK II code

- NUPIPE code

- dynamic; static analysis .

- phasing and earthquake phase relationships Questions - Dynamic Stress Analysis

1. Name, address, present occupation, prior education and experience.
2. Present NRC position - role of NRC staff in nuclear safety review.

3.- Scope of expertise and testimony in this case.

.4. . Definitions of terminology to be used.

5. What events led up to the March 13th shutdown?
6. What did Beaver Valley's SER say with respect to stress analysis?

The FSAR? -

7. What NRC regulations, regulatory quidea or understandings with respect

- to stress analysis and when?

8. Who performed initial stress analysis computations? When?
9. ~What methodology was used? What methodology should have been used, in your opinion? Why?
10. Should S & W have known, or its mechanical engineers have known that .

its computer codes were wrong? Why?

11. Were there any subsequent events after B-V was planned which could have alerted S & W to a need for reanalysis? Was such reanalysis performed? l
12. What was NRC staff's first reaction upon learning of the stress analysis methodology-used? (What problems - regulatory and engineering - did it present?)
13. What actions did the NRC's show cause order require of Duquesne, the operating licensee?
14. How long did the shutdown last?
15. What specific reanalysis was required of the licensee? Who did it?
16. 14 tat analysis did S & W actually perform? (Did they do more than I required? Did this delay start-up?)

16a. In your opinion, did S & W delay the reanalysis?

17. What deficiencies were uncovered as a result of the analysis? (DBE -

OBE requirements and problems?)

18. Were those deficiencies corrected? How?
19. Describe the difference between SRSS, algebraic summation, and absolute summation stress analysis methods?
20. Which method predicts actual stress conditions best? Why?

F Mr. William T. Russell Page 3 May 5,1980

21. What trade-offs must an engineer make in stress analysis and reinforce-ment? (harmonic coupling problems, overdesign problems, etc.)
22. What design features of B-V already contributed to stress resistance?
23. Why was a dynamic rather than a static analysis required?
24. Do all licensees now calculate stress by the SRSS method? Are other and older plants other than S & W plants being reanalized?

Definitions - Turbine Spindle Cracking

- parts of turbine spindle

- low pressure turbine vs. pressure turbine ,

- spindle

- shaft

- keyway

- rotors or blades ,

- necessary metallurgical terms

- stress corrosion cracking

- turbine missiles

- turbine discs Questions - Turbine Spindle Cracking Qualifications

1. What event alerted the NRC to a problem with turbine disc cracking?
2. Describe the current problems with disc cracking.
3. Is the problem peculiar to a specific turbine design or manufacturer?
4. What theories have been advanced to '.xplain the cracking?
5. "hnt ctcpc have been taken to cure the cracking? (Duquesne? Other licencees?)
6. Ar e the replacement spindles of Duquesne of the same design as the original (cracked) spindles?
7. Could cracking prob.' ems occur with the replacement spindles?
8. Have the cracks appeared in Westinghouse spindles earlier than expected by the nature of the design?
9. Has spindle cracking contributed or is it likely to contribute to any B-V shutdown?

Please feel free to telephone comments or suggestions for additional defi-nitions or questions to me. I will be at out-of-town hearings until May 9,1980, but my secretary will relay messages.

I hope this provides a good starting point for preparation.

N$rytrulyyours, J hn A. Levin sistant Counsel rrr Enclosure

F' I.

> QUALIFICATIONS AND

SUMMARY

OF FINDINGS J. Please state your name and business address.

2 A, My name is John K. Stutz.

My business address is Energy Systems Research Group, Inc., 120 Milk Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02109.

Q.

Dr. Stutz, please describe your background and qualifications .

A.

I am currently a senior research scientist at Energy System'.

Research Group, Inc. (ESRG),

a non-profit firm specializing in research on energy-related matters.

At ESRG I have had extensive experience in the area of mathematical modelling and its application to energy-related problems, particularly long-range load forecasting for electric utilities.

I have testified in electric utility cases in New York Massachusetts, Rhode Island, g

Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I have prepared long-l range electric load forecasts for utilities in New York, Connecti- >

cut, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Before joining ESRG, and after i receiving my Ph.D.

at Princeton University, I taught :nd did j resacrch in mathematics and economics at M.I.T., the State University of New York at Albany, and most recently at Fordham University, where I held the position of Associate Professor and co-director of the program in Mathematics and Economics. My .

g background is described more fully in the Vita attached as 4 Exhibit (JS-1) below.

What is the subject of your testimony today?

My testimony concerns the long-range load grow:h forecast by the member utilities of CAPCO. -I am sponsoring independent

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Education-Mathematics, Princeton University,1969. -%j Ph.D.: Mathematics, State University of New York 3 l B.S.: at Stony Brook, 1965 ,

Ercerience Inc.

Energy Systems Research Group, 1977 - Present:

Responsibility for mathematical modellin .

electrical demand forecasting and input-output analysis of the labor impacts ofen electric service and rate design issues; analysis of energy price impacts on consumers.

. Associate Professor, Mathematics Department,Co-d 1976 - 1977:

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Fordham University.B.S. program in economics and m -

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Assistant Professor to Associate Professor, 1971 - 1976: State University of New York at Albany,then Allen Center.

Mathematics Department, Instructor, Mathemacies Depart = enc, 1969 - 1971: Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

ESRG Research r

Long Range Forecast of.Ohic Electric Demand, ESRG -

Study No. 79-24. Principal Investigator.

Forthcoming:

Testimony, Pennsylvania Public Utility Long Commissio:

range March 1980: (Duquesne Light Co. and CAPCO) .

forecast of electric energy and demand.

Testi:nony, Case 20055, Massachusetts Department January 1930: (New Bedford Gas and Edison of Public UtilitiesElectricity conservation strategies Light Co.).

and alternative generation options; critiqu forecast.

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/ December 1979: Testimony, Case 1232, Rhode Island Public

- Utility Commission (Blackstone Valley Electric Co.). Critique of cost of service study and analysis of alternative rate designs. i November 1979: Testimony, Docket R-79060865, Pennsylvania i P.U.C. (Philadelphia Electric Co. ) Long-range i demand forecast (base case and conservation policy case).

October 1979: Testimony, Case U-6217, Michigan Public Service Commission (Detroit Edison Co.) . Forecast critique.

September 1979: Energv and Jobs: Analyzing the Economic Impacts of State Policies to Promote Energy Conservation, ESRG Study No. 79-01. Develop-ment of input-output model and application to a region in Massachusetts. Principal Investigator.

September 1979: Testimony, The.New York State Energy Master Planning and Long Ran,ge Ele,ctric and, Gas ' .

System Proceeding. Leng-range electric ,

demand and the employment implications of energy conservation.

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July 19 79 : Base Case Forecast and Emplevment Impacts of the Conservation Poliev Case Alternative, volumes I and III of ESRG Study No. 79-12, Electricity Requirements in New York State.

Principal Investigator for Volume III.

June 1979: Long-Range Forecast of Electric Energy and Demand in the Service Territory of tne Ducuesne Lignt Company, ESRG S:udy No. 7 9 - 1 7 .-* -Principal Investigator.

May 1979: Testimony, Case 19494,' Massachusetts DPU l (Boston Edison Co.). Growth in electric demand.

May 1979: Assessment of the New England Pcwer Pcol - I Sattelle Long Range Electric Demand Forecasting Mcdel, ESRG Study No. 7 9-06, A Repcrt to cae New England Conference of Public Utility Ccmmissicners. Co-auther.

May 1979: Testimony, Case U-6006, Michigan P.S.C. (Detroit

sdison Co.). Forecast critique.

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March 1979: Testimony, Cases 27461 and 27462, New York 7,f Public Service Commission (Central Hudson Gas and Electric Co.). Critique of revenue 1 g/v and demand forecasts.

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/ February 1979: Analvzine the Impacts of Energy Prices on i New England Residents, ISRG Study No. 79-01. l Principal Investigator. )

1 Deca =ber 1973: Energv Demand Study: Power Authority of the State of New York, ESRG Study No. 78-15.

Principal Investigator.

December 1978: Economic Impact of an Electricity Rate Increase in New York City, ESRG Study No.

78-14. Principal Investigator.

Deca-her 1978: Gas Production from Nuclear Power Plant waste Heat: An Econcmic Analysis, ESRG Study No. 78-12. Co-author.,'

' Octcber 1978: Testimony, D'ocket 780701, Connecticut Puelic Utilities Control Authority (United Illuminating Co.). Forecast critique and long-range demand ferecast.

October 1978: The Employment Creation' Potential of Energy conservation and Solar Tecnnologies : The Implications of the Long Island Jobs Study for New England, 1978-1993. Principal inves tigator.

September 1978: Long Range Forecast of Electric Energy and Demand in New York State, ESRG S:udy No.

78-07. Co-autner.

September 1979: Testimony, Case 27319, N.Y. Public Service Commission (Pewer Pool Long Range Plan) .

Forecast critique and demand forecast.

May 1978: A Methodology for Estidating Tetal Icenemic and Employmen: Im= acts of Energy Related Construction, ESRG Study No. 73-03. Principal Investigator.

March ~ 1978 : Testimeny, Docket 433, Pennsylvania Public C llity Commission (Philadelphia Electric Co.).

Forecast critique and demand ferecast.

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. ..a september 1977: Testimony, cockets 770319 and 770320,

,p' Connecticut Public Utilities Control J Authority (Ncrtheast Utility System) .

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Forecast critique, conservaation options; l

./- comparative costs of generatien alternatives.

/ i April 1977: Assessing cemand, Alternative Generating '

Strategies, and Utility Economics in tne Service Territory of orance and Rockland Utili tie s , ES RG S tudy No . 77-01. Co-author.

April 1977: Testimony, Cases 27094 and 27095, N.Y.

Public Service Commission (Orange and Rockland Utilities) .

Other Publications April 1979: . Production of Synthetic Gas from Nuclear Energy Sources, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory Report LA-7592-MS. Co- autho r .

February 1979: " Energy Policy and Employment," Peoole Energy Primer, Syracuse Peace Council.

1976: "Equisingularity and Local Analytic

. Proceedings of the American Geometry,"

Mathematica l~ Society, Summer Institute on Severai Complex Variables.

April 1976: " Residual Equisingularity," with Jos'aph Becker. Proceedings of the American Mathematical soc 1ety, vol. 56.

1974: " Primitive Elements for Mcdules ever O(?) ,"

Duke Mathematics Journal, vol. 4.

1 1973: "The.C Embedding Dimension of Certain Analytic Sets," with J. Beckar. Ouke Mathematics Journal, vol. 40.

1973: " Resolving Singularities via Lccal Quadratic Transformations," with J. Secker. Proceedings of the conf erence en Singularities , Rice University Studies, vol. 59.

1973: " Wings in Analytic Sets," Indiana University Mathematics Jcurnal, vol. 22.

1972: "Equisingularity and Equisaturation in Cedimen-sien I," American Journal of Mathematics, vol.

94.

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1972:

" Analytic Sets as Branched Coverings,"

,/- Transactions of the American Mathematical s y Society, vol. 166. l

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1970:

"The Representation P cblem fod Differential Operators on Analytic Sets ," Math. Ann. ,

vol. 189.

Selected Pacers and Professional Activities Consultant to National Consumer Law Center.

1979 - present: Electric utility load research methodology.

1978 - 1979 Consultant to Council on Economic Priorities.

Energy and employment.

1979:

" Assessing Local Employment Impacts of Conservation and Solar-Related Activities,"

Conf erence sponsored by the International Solar Energy Society, Georgia Office of Energy Resources, and Solar Energy Research -

Institute.

October 1978: Panelist on electric utility rate structures and load forecasting, national meeting of the Critical Mass Energy Project. .

August 1978: Participant, Boston workshop on electricity supply and demand planning sponsored by the National Governors' Association, National

. Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, and Department of Energy.

Fall 1977: "The Role of Public Agencies in Utility Load Forecasting Proceedings ," Lawyers ' Guild meeting , Hartford.

November 1977: " Utility Electrical Cemand Projections,"

Northeastern Political' Science Association meeting, Mt. Pocono, Pennsylvania.

S c=ser 19 7 5 :

Invited speaker- American Mathematical Society's Summer Institute on Analytic Functions of Several Complex variables.

1973:

Invited Participant, Rice University Ccnference on Singularities of Analytic Sets.

1972 - Present:

Referee, Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society and Duke Mathematics Jcurnal.

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',[ ' 1969 - 1975: R0 viewer for Methematical RnviGws cnd

/ Zentralblat fGd Mathematik.

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/ Awards and Honors State University of New York Faculty Fellowship, St=mer 19 72 and Summer 19 73.

National Science Foundation Cooperative Fellcwship, 1965 - 1967.

Professional Sccieties American Mathematics Society.

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