ML20248H580

Advises That Plant Evacuation Time Estimates within Plume Exposure Pathway EPZ for Plant Consistent w/NUREG-0654,App a

ML20248H580
Person / Time
Site:	Zion  File:ZionSolutions icon.png
Issue date:	03/28/1989
From:	Urbanik T AFFILIATION NOT ASSIGNED
To:	Kantor F Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
RTR-NUREG-0654, RTR-NUREG-654 NUDOCS 8904140153
Download: ML20248H580 (7)

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L THOMAS URBANIK II l 12 Post Oak Bend Road l College Station, Texas 77840-9627 o March 28,1989 -

Falk Kantor, EPB, NRR U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C. 20555

Dear Mr. Kantor:

I have had extensive discussions with Mr. William Brenner, Commonwealth Edison, and Mr. Joel Brown, Commonwealth Edison consultant concerning the " Evacuation Time Estimates Within the Plume Exposur.e Pathway Emergency Planning Zone for the Zion Nuclear Generating Station" dated June 1988. I have also reviewed relevant supporting data including portions of the Illinois and Wisconsin emergency plans, intersection diagrams, and output from the NETVAC2 computer output for Zion. In response to my letter of September 29,1989, and the ensuing discussions with Commonwealth Edison, the attached written response dated March 7,1989 was received.

The data and documentation provided by Commonwealth Edison addresses all concerns I have previously expressed. Several clarifications are incorporated in proposed revisions to pages 4-6,4-7,'and 4-8 of the June 1988 Zion ETE Study as indicated in Mr.

'Brenner's letter of March 7,1989. . Based on my review of the above referenced information, I find the Zion ETE Study to be consistent with the guidance of NUREG 0654, Appendix 4.

If you have any questions, please let me know.

Sincerely yours, hk NL Thomas Urbanik II, PH.D., P.E.

cc: J. D. Jamison, Battelle PNL i

8904140153 890328 9 "f 3I PDR ADOCK 05000295 M PDC

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". f j C$mm:nwulth Edlic'n M' .g 72 West Adams Street, Chicago, Illinois -

-1 Address Reply to: Post Office Box 767 -

Chicago, Illinois 60690 0767 g

March 7, 1989-i i

Dr. Thomas U' rbanik II ,

12 Post Oak Ber.d Road College Station, Texas 77843-9627

Dear Tom:

lIn response to our conference call of December 21, 1988 with Tom Plosky (NRC III) and Joel Brown (Impe11) as well as your letter of September 29, 1988, the.

following analyses and explanations are presented. As appropriate, draft revised text pages addressing a number of items regarding the basis of the Zion Station Evacuation Time Estimate Study are attached.

As discussed,'many of the considerations and assumptions upon which the Zion Station ETE Study was developed are based on information contained in other operational documents. These documents include the State of Illinois Plan for Radiological Accidents-(IPRA) Zion Volume V and the Kenosha County Radiological Emergency Response Plan (RERP). Please note that these plans and

. procedures have received FEMA's unconditional 44CFR350 approval.

Based on our conversation of December 21, 1988 six (6) items' requiring further attention were identified (See Attachment 1). These items are discussed in the following paragraphs.

ITEM 1 - Provision of Traffic Control Plans - As stated in Section 4.1.3 of the ETE Study..the ETE road network modeled is based on and completely consistent with the evacuation roadways identified in the Traffic and Access Control Plan and Procedures detailed in the Lake Co.-5-SOP-7, Kenosha Co.-Tabs H and I, and the Zion Station EPZ Evacuation and Traffic / Access Control Guide and Map A. Subsequent analysis of locations exhibiting vehicle queuing identified in the ETE in relation to existing Traffic and Access Control Plans and Procedures was performed. Based on this analysis, it was determined.that all roadway intersection locations with the potential for vehicle queuing have been identified in the Traffic and Access Control Plans and Procedures as traffic control points. Therefore, no specific identification of traffic congestion locations has been presented in the ETE study.

In discussing the ETE analysis and the implications for traffic control, it was determined that special emphasis for traffic control was considered only in the Special Event sensitivity analysis involving visitors to the Illinois i Beach State Park. It is important to note that traffic controls employed in the Special Event analysis are entirely consistant with the existing Traffic and Access Control Plans and Procedures as they pertain to Illinois Beach State Park, l

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br.ThomasUrbanik'II February 23, 1989

' Page Two Item 2 - Identification and Means for Transporting Individuals Hithout Cars -

As stated in Section 4.1.3 of the ETE Study, it is assumed that transportation dependent individuals will receive rides with neighbors or public service vehicles in accordance with Lake Co.-5-S00-8 and Kenosha Co. Annex G -

Emergency Transportation Services.

Lists of individuals potentially needing transportation assistance are updated annually. This information is maintained by the local emergency response organization. Currently the emergency response plans for Kenosha and Lake Counties identify a total of 747 people who may require transportation assistance durity an emergency. Of those individuals, 85 might need some special medical transportation assistance, while the remaining 662 individuals could be transported in ordinary vehicles. Conservatively, this could mean that up to 110 additional vehicles could be added to the vehicle totals for a full EPZ evacuation. For a winter day time evacuation scenario this would represent less than an 0.17. increase in the estimated number of total vehicles, which would have no discernable impact on the ETE results. This has been clarified in Section 4.1.3 (page 4-8) of the ETE Study.

Item 3 - Identification of Special Facility Transportation Requirements -

Special facilities, identified in Tables 3-5 through 3-8 of the ETE Study, in Lake and Kenosha Counties within the Zion Station EPZ will be transported in accordance with the procedures for evacuation presented in Lake Co.-5-SOP-8, SOP-9, SOP-10 and Kenosha Co. Annex G. Based on an inventory of transportation resources associated with the State and local emergency response organizations responsible for implementation of these plans, it is reasonable to assume that there will be a sufficient number of evacuation vehicles (e.g. buses, vans, and ambulances) readily available in most instances to affect an evacuation of a11 special facilities within the same time frame of the general population. This operational aspect of IPRA Volume V for Lake Co. and the Kenosha Co. RERP involving timely E0C activation and mobilization of emergency response organ,ization resources, has been clarified in Section 4.1.3 (page 4-8) of the ETE Study and is supported by the FEMA 350 Approvals.

Item 4 - Accounting for Normal Background Traffic - Section 4.1.3 of the ETE Study assumes no major traffic will be on the road network prior to the start of an evacuation. This assumption is in accordance with the operational plans and procedures which would realistically result in the timely implementation of traffic and access control. In reviewing the basic traffic patterns in the ETE Study area, backgr.ound traffic, which would be associated with intercity traffic, was determined to be potentially significant only along 194 and Route

41. The implementation of existing Traffic and Access Control Plans and Procedures would serve to inhibit any potential background traffic particularly on 194 and Route 41. These provisions for the control of potential background traffic are clarified in Section 4.1.3 (page 4-7) of the ETE Study. t l

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Dr. Thomas Urbanik-II February 23, 1989 Page Three Item 5 - Justification of Roadway Capacity Values -. Algorithm's for the NETVAC2 model are based on a capacity of 2,000 veh./ lane / hour which is modified by coefficients representative of road width,' shoulder width, area type, and roadway type. Where the appropriate conditions exist, a maximum capacity of 2,000 veh./hr. may be calculated in the model preprocessor as is reported in Appendix C of the ETE Study. The capacities calculated in the preprocessor do not represent the actual bounds of vehicle flow. The model adjusts capacity continuously during the simulation to reflect the changing network conditions resulting from vehicular movements. This effectively results in roadway capacities of less than 2,000 vehicles / hour. i Item 6 - Surveillance of Traffic Operations and Means to Clear Roadways - It.

is assumed that traffic flow during an evacuation will be monitored and the means to respond to. roadway impediments provided. This assumption is specifically validated by.the approval of the State and local emergency response plans for Zion Station and their compliance with NUREG-0654 Evaluation Criteria J'10.k. . Provisions for the surveillance ofLtraffic operations and the means to remove impediments are clarified in the ETE assumptions in Section 14.1.3 (page 4-6) of the ETE Study.

_u-H. B. Brenner Emergency Planning Supervisor Governme'ntal Affairs i

PW 7643E/30 l

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. - ATTACHMENT 1 T50 MAS ORSANIE II 12 Post Oak Bend Road College Station, Texas 77843-9627 September 29, 1988 Falk Kantor j U. S. Nuclear Regulatory commission Washington, D. C. 20555

Dear Mr. Kantor:

I have reviewed the "E[acuation. Time Estimates Within the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone for the Zion Nuclear Generating Station" prepared by Commonwealth Edision in  !

June 1988. I have identified several deficiencies relative to the guidance of HUREG-0654, and the need for additional information. Some of the information may be contained in other documents, but needs to be included in the ETE report ih order to know the basis of the estimates..

[Ho traf fic control plans are provided, so it is-not possible to determine if he traffic routings used in the esttimate are .r7en / !

consistent with state and local plans. Furthermore, th> location and extent of congestion its not indicated] [No indicatiDn is made of the identification of those without cars that require public JTEM 2 I transportation nor the means to provide transportation for those vithout cars.]

'The time estimate study does not indicate the number of vehicles required to transport those in special facilities nor the resources required to transport all. persons in one trip whichIrsM3 is implicit in the analysis provided. The times for kobilizing transportation for special facilities 'should be better documented.

No accounting is made for normal background traffic and ho means has been identified to control access to the EPh relatiive IT&f Y to through traf fic on major intercity highways such as Interstate 94.

Estimates of capacity appear to be unusually high. All 7739 5 capacity values of 2000 vehicles per lane per hour should be justified.

Jrovisions for surveillance of traf fic operations should be REW identified as well as means to clear roadways of blocka; ge due to i incidents or accidents.

Sincerely, ,

fm j

Thomas Urbanik II, (H.D., P.E.

CC: J. A. MacLellan, Battelle PNL N E U 5_ q

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.f Rev. O, 06/88'

- One vehicle per employee at major employers will be used in an evacuation. i

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Small boats in Lake Michigan will be directed toward either Chicago or; 2 i

Milwaukee municipal harbors.  !

- Any required additional vehicles needed to implement the evacuation of the special facilities would begin arriving at the special facilities within 30 minutes of the decision to evacuate. This accurately reflects the IPRA Volume V for Lake County and the Kenosha County RERP in' assuming that, prior to an evacuation decision occuring, the emergency response bM organizations will be fully activated and their resources including evacuation vehicles will be mobilized for immediate response..  !

- One vehicle per campsite at major recreational areas will be used for evacuation. (This assumes 3.5 people per vehicle as' this is the Illinois State average number of people per family except that for the Great

. America Theme Park a 5.0 people per vehicle factor was used bsed on  !

facility information.)

People without vehicles will receive rides from either neighbors or a pool of designated public service vehicles which would already be mobilized in

. accordance with the Federally approved offsite emergency response plans and procedures for Lake County, Illinois and Kenosha County, Wisconsin. EmZ (Lists of individuals who may need transportation assistance are maintained by local emergency response organizations. The small number of l

additional vehicles that may be associated with this activity has no discernable impact on the results of the time estimate.)

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, REV. O, 06/88 Evacuation of special facilities will occur simultaneously with the general population.

Traffic rules and controls will be obeyed, and only the proper travel lane will be used (not shoulders or opposing flow lanes). Traffic lights will be functioning normally or traffic control officers will be stationed at the location of nonfunctioning traffic lights.

No major traffic will be on the road network prior to the start of an evacuation. Due to the early mobilization of the local emergency response organizations and the implementation of EPZ access control in accordance with the existing Traffic and Access Control Plans and Procedures, IT#

background traffic will be effectively eliminated prior to the start of an evacuation particularly along 194 and Route 41.

Appropriate traffic and access control points will be manned.

Roadway capacities will be reduced to 80 percent of normal weather  ;

capacity during adverse weather.5 6 Adverse weather conditions are those that may impair visibility and/or traction such as light snow, j icing, rain, or fog.

j Private vehicles will be the primary mode of evacuation.

Only one vehicle per household will be used in an evacuation. (There are 3.0 and 2.8 persons in Lake and Kenosha Counties, respectively, per j household, based on an average of people per household in townships entirely or partially within the EPZ.10) ,

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REV. O, 06-88 i l

I 4.1.3 Assumptions Used in Developing the Evacuation Time Estimates The prompt public notification system, which utilizes sirens, will be used. (Based on this system, the time to notify essentially 100 percent of the full EPZ population has been estimated to be 15 minutes.) i Evacuation network roads will be passable. (Including provisions for the surveillance of traffic operations and means to remove impediments which would be implemented in accordance with Federally approved offsite emergency response plans for Lake County, Illinois and Kenosha County, Hisconsin.)

All evacuation of people and vehicles in the Illinois portion of the Zion EPZ will only take place on Illinois element of the Zion evacuation roadway network.

All evacuation of people and vehicles in the Hisconsin portion of the Zion EPZ will take place on the Hisconsin element of the Zion evacuation roadway network.

Persons within the EPZ, when instructed to evacuate, will leave.

l People in the outer primary evacuation zones will not evacuate when an inner primary evacuation zone is the only zone recommended to be evacuated.

l Adequate transportation will be available for recreational areas.

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