ML20132B187
| ML20132B187 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Three Mile Island  |
| Issue date: | 03/18/1980 |
| From: | Book S CALIFORNIA, UNIV. OF, DAVIS, CA |
| To: | Grimes B NRC - EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS TASK FORCE |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20132B193 | List: |
| References | |
| FOIA-85-248, FOIA-85-284, TASK-OS, TASK-RH-902-8 NUDOCS 8005190450 | |
| Download: ML20132B187 (4) | |
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HE AllH ELSE ARCH (916) 75; l.140 (F TS 453-1340) l' March 18,1980 Dr. Brian K. Grimes, Director Emergency Preparedness Task Group Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington DC 20555
Dear Dr. Grimes:
Enclosed is ray evaluation of " Infant Mori.ality Changes following the Three Mile Island Accident," by E. J. Sternglass. I have not addressed his statements about the Millstone and Connecticut Yankee reactors since they do not pertain to the Three Mile Island
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releases. Furthermore, they appear to be similar to statements he has made in the past that have been addressed by others. I hope rqy comments are of some assistance to you. Sincerely yours, y' UD) D St even A. E'cok , Ph.D. I.s sociate Pesearch Pr.ysiologist SAB:nh cc w/ encl: Dr. R. Gotchy, NRC Dr. M. Parsont, NRC Dr. M. Goldaan, LEHR l op 9 40 $ \ fio x
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. 45 Comments on " Infant Mortality Changes following the Three Mile Island Accident" by E. J. Sternglass Steven A. Book Laboratory for Energy-Related Health Research School of Veterinary Medicine Univbrsity of California, Davis, California 95616
.In the paper " Infant Mortality Changes Following the Three Mile Island Accident" by E. J. Sternglass, the author claims an increase in infant
. mort.al.ity followed releases of radioactivity from the Three Mile Island
' accident. He considers the alleged increase in infant mortality to result from (1) the concentration of iodine-131 in fetal thyroid glands and (2) a consequent increase in immature and underweight infants that died of respira-tory distress.
In my opinion, the claims presented in that paper are without substance and are based on fallacious arguments that violate basic concepts in areas of physiology, radiation biology, and epidemi~ ology. The basis for that paper appears to be that a higher incidence of respira-tory distress occurs in immature infants. On page 4 it is stated that "even a small degree of retardation in development due to a reduced output of growth hormone [ sic] by the thyroid gland during the last three to four months of intrauterine development would be expected to increase the risk of dea'th due to respiratory insufficiency immediately after birth. Failure of the critical lung surfactant to be produced in adequate amounts can therefore lead to respiratory problems and death as a result of dar, age either to the thyroid or the pituitary gland which in turn controls the thyroid's cutput of growth hormone [ sic] (17)." In terms of basic physiology, that paragraph makes little sense. Growth hormone, of course, is not secreted by the thyroid gland. It is secreted by specific cells of the anterior pituitary gland and is involved in generalized growth and metabolism, but it has no particular target organ. Thyroid glands secrete the thyroid hormones, tetraiodothyronine (thyroxine) and triiodothy-ronine, required for normal development of bone and nervous tissue. I have been unable to find any reference to thyroid hormone or growth hormone
-involvenent in production of lung surfactant. Even reference 17 cited in that paper does not implicate either of those hormones, but instead demon-
!? rates the n:ed for a functienal pituitary-ad cr.al gland axis for nor.tal lung
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cs appears the relationship of thyroid and surfactant production basic to the author's claims is questionable. In stating that the reduced output of thyroid gland would lead to retarded development and an increased likelihood of death from respiratory insufficiency, the author requires us to accept the notion that his proposed "ir. maturity" is the same as prematurity with all its attendant problems (including respiratory distress). While that acceptance may sound reasonable at the outset, prematurity is a different situation altogether. Another area that is basic to the claims of that paper has to do with the increased radiciodine concentration of the fetal thyroid and the consequent dose. Estimates of fetal thyroid dose are not large enough, however, to result in effects on the thyroid gland. While it is true that the fetal thyroid gland begins to function early in gestation, it is not true that the fetal thyroid doses can be 100 times those of adults. In general, the fetal thyroid concentration of 131 I would be up to about 10 times the maternal thyroid concentration, and the subsequent dose similarly within one order of magnitude. The proposed 100-fold difference results from Eisenbud's observation (reference 3) of a 10-fold higher dose rate in a fetal thyroid than in children, based on a single unusual case. Elsewhere in the same paper, however, Eisenbud mentions that children have doses about twice those of adults. Hence, according to those values, fetuses would have (10 x 2 =) 20 times the dose of adults, not 100. Furthermore, since those data were from fallout 131 1 the assimilated 13I I was primarily from ingested milk; from inhaled 131, 1 a,s the author mentions on page 2' of the Three Mile Island paper, the dose to adults was the same as for infants (about 0.01 rad by inhalation), and the dose to fetuses, therefore, would be about (1 x 10 =) 10 times that to adults. The dose to the fetal thyroid, then, would appear to be no more than about 0.1 rad. The author assumes another 0.1 rad to the thyroid from other radio-nuclides including 3g,134Cs,137 s,140Br, C and 89Sr (pages 2 and 3). I am not aware of the release of any radionuclides other than of isotopes of xenon, iodine, and perhaps krypton from Three Mile Island; hence, doses from those other radicnuclides would be unlitely. Furthermore, even were those radio-r.uclides relcased, they arc not ccM.entrated tu the thyroid gland, and they would not have resulted in any appreciable thyroid dose. The reduction of growth observed in exposed Marshallese is cited as being supportive of the author's arguments. While there were definite thyroidal effects resulting from the exposure of The Marshallese to weapons fallout, the
, doses were many orders of magnitude greater than doses from Three Mile Island, and effects were manifested years after exposure. Thyroid doses to children le'ss than 10 years of age were from 810-1150 rads from various radiciodines
(+ 175 rads to the total body) in the group that demonstrated the most thyroid effects. Children that received 275-450 rads to the thyroid (+ 69 rads, total body) dc :a,st rated fe..er ef fect s. Children c> posed to 60-95 rads to the thyroid, nrincipally f rom 131 1 (+ 14 rads total body) showed no thyroid c " :- . 1 of 3 o g / in , tere tc iM reds f ra e>. terr.al ca a plus up
G 4 O to an estimated 3000 rads to the thyroid demonstrated thyroid lesions. Based on these numbers and many others available in the scientific literature, the estimated 0.1 rad to the fetal thyroid is not likely to result in thyroid dysfunction.. That dose, I emphasize, is many orders of magnitude lower than doses at which immediate thyroid effects have been observed. The cause and effect relationship that is professed assumes 131 1 and
' thyroid effects t'o be the cause and infant mortality to be the effect . As demonstrated above, the cause as presented appears not to be a cause. As I will discuss below, the effect similarly appears not to be an effect.
Changes in infant mortality do not appear to be the proper parameters for addressing biologic effects, since infant mortality involves a number of uncertainties. I suspect that most of the monthly changes discussed in the paper are not real changes. Rather, they reflect normal variability. There are too many fluctuations in the small numbers utilized to draw meaningful conclusions from them. For example, in Fig. 5, monthly rates are seen to increase from s1.1% mortality in March to sl.8% in July, a change purported to be of even more significance because of the lower mortality of summer months. However, a look at infant mortality for July for the past 10 years shows a range of 1.3 to 2.1% infant mortality. Furthermore, I suspect that the changes in national infant mortality for which the author blames nuclear weapons testing ~ are related instead to changing practices in neonatal medicine in the 1950's and 1960's, particularly as they relate to premature births and the likelihood of survival. The presence of a correlation does not necessar-ily mean cause and effect. . . I do not find the paper " Infant liortality Changes Following the Three Mile Island Accident" by E. J. Sternglass to be scientifically valid. The paper attempts'to show how low doses from 131 I to the thyroid caused increased infant mortality due to respiratory distress of immature infants. It fails to do so in a reasonable manner, and, therefore, appears to me to be without scientific merit. l l i l l l I I
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LETTER P:PCRT % I'}, 4 PATHWAYS OF 10 DINE-131 TO MILK FOLLOWING THE THREE MILE ISLAND INCIDENT D. A. Baker R. G. Schreckhise J . K. Sol dat June 1983 Pacific Northwest Laboratory Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy by Battelle Memor1al Institute i 20057 B30630 OOCK 0:000320 ~ CF q 12 h 42=23 P W [ ? -{Dff g gp
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J P ATFW AYS Or ICONE-131 TO MItv. _[N';f l FOLL0nIf4 THE TEREE WILE ISLN In ::cE*.T f? % hi' D. A. Baker, R. G. Schreckhise, arc J. K. Sc':at . 'h
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A stucy sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Coer ission was conct.ctec by Pacific Northwest Laboratory to determine the pathway of tocine-131 observed in some of the milk samples collected f rom the sur- I 4, rouncing area following the incicont at the Three Mile Island Number 2 I' ruclear power station on 28 March 1979. Information from the utility, its consultants, and other governmental agencies were collected and studied. , Varicus potential pathways were considered, and finally two were selected . for detailed study: inhalation and ingestion. Using the mathematical procecure of convoluting the air concentrations near the animal locations }, alth the impulse response functions representing the two pathways in the antrais. it was found that for the three f arms Selected for study the most pretable pathway was air inhalation, at least in the first ten days af ter ' the. accicont. Finally, a simple model was developed to estimate peak milk concentraticn of todine-131 a:ter an accidental release into the atmosphere j frc? the inhalation. The model utilizes the ambient air concentration average: over the time of the release. 1 0; STATE.uENT OF THE PRTLEM a In the days imrediately fo11cwing the accident, which occurred on the
.3 r.orning of 28 Parch 19'79 at the Three Mile Island 2 r.uclear power plant near Piddletown, Ponnsylvar.t a, iodine-131 was detected in milk from cows and ,! ,
i goats residing on farms in the surrounding area. Since this was very early in the spring, the ccvs and scats were essentially 'not on pasture " but < oere being fed stored fced and silage. Thus, it was assu-ed at the time that those animals could not derive any iodine-131 f rom the normal air grass p a t ' = a y. So why was there etasurable iodine-131 in their milk? The protlee j tt t
- .n to determine the probable pathway for this iodine and to develcp a ,,
'f occ i cr raise exist'r.g NFC recels to account for this phencreren. r,f
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- e. N The ensuing sections of this report discuss our investigatiens ar.c propescd hf solution to this problem.
J INFDRMATION COLLECTED AND SITE VISIT 1 Information f roe. various organizations was provided by our NRC project representative, Sarbes Acharya. Other information was also received f rom William E. Riethie, Supervisor, TMI Environmental / Impact Assessment Group, l ! of the GPU Service Corporation during a site visit 30-31 October 1979. It consisted of the results of their monitoring program during the period after the accident ihich had been compiled by their coesultant, Bruce Newman of Porter-Gertz Consultants, Ardmore, Pennsylvania. Also included were sea-surerents of todine-131 in air, vegetation and milk. In addition, descrip-tive material was furnished on their n,eteorological programs, todine-131 release rates, animal husbandry practices in the region, goat and cow census data, and a description of the procedure for measuring iodine-131 in milk. The latter information was provided by Drs. Hewitt W. Jeter and John David Martin of Teledyne Isotopes. Westwood, New Jersey. l During the site visit, Mr. Ron Laufer, the person responsible for q l collecting milk samples for the GPU monitoring program, arranged for us to i meet the owners and tour two farms: the Becker f arm which had the highest concontration of iodine-131 in cows' milk found by the utility monitoring l program, and the Hardison farm where iodine-131 in goats' milk was detected l (Figure 1 shows locations). Figures 2 and 3 show the variation with time of the iodine-131 concentrations in milk from the Becker and Hardison f arms, respect *vely. Data from the Alwine and Fisher farms (Figures 4 and 5) were also analyzed; however, these farms were not visited. From conversations with Mr. Becker and Mrs. Hardison, we found that although the anf rals were l not on pasture for their essential nourishment, they did have accees to l pasture at the tirre of and immediately following the accident. Therefore, it was possible for the animals to graze on the standing dead vegetation. However, later in the month the goats' pasture ' greened up" accordirg to Mrs. Hardison. The gcats were then eating fresh pasture in addition to their usual winter diet of stored feed which probably accounts for the ' sucdon increase in todine-131 concentrations in their milk during the latter part of April (see Figure 3). 1 I i si.
F i During the af ternoon of 30 October 1979, ve visited with Mr. John Collins of the NTtC at the site. The next morning we visited with Ms. Margaret A. Reilly and Mr. Don Beaver of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources at Harrisburg in order to get more opinions on the problen:. POTENTIAL PATHWAYS INVESTIGATED The pathways that could have been responsible for iodine-131 measured in the milk were:
- 1. drinking water
- 2. silage, in the case of the cows
- 3. pasture (limited but accessible)
! 4. inhalation. Drinking water was pretty much ruled out as a soume of todine-131 because well water was being used. The cows did have access to a small creek during their time on pasture; however, the owner (Mr. Becker) said they didn't use this much. . The Becker cows were given a combination of silage (chopped corn stalks) and stored grain. The silage was loaded from a closed stlo to an open farm wagon, then taken to a conveyor where it was transferred to covered eating troughs. Since the cows took only about 30 minutes to eat ' the silaga, and because only the top of the silage could be deposited with todine, this pathway was not considered a potential route. The limited pasture available to the animals was deemed to be the most probable pathway. ' Inhalation seemed.unlikely. This was particularly true because the whole-body counting results of the people in the surrounding area (except plant workers) showed no detectable levels of todine-131 in their bodies (Auxter,1979, p. 26). However, we did not rule out inhala-tion entirely since the farm animals and the people were not in the same place at the same tie-e and the reduced air infiltration provided by snug houses may have been a factor in the negative whole-body counting findings. i 3
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','.% %UE...IRLt Tc de ternir.e if ir.halation or grass ircestion w as the c-".;-t :3.3.
a st ple cenvolution model w as develepoc. The air cr ccMratics .as the ir;Lt f unctico, and two dif f erent retention f unction; =ert use: as the
- r;ul se-response f unction. The outptt which represe. tec the varietico cf miir conccr.tration with time was then cross-correlated with the reasured values of m11k/1odine-131 concentration. Graphs of the input, imp ul se ar.c cutput fur.ctions are shown in Figures 6 throup 8.
Convolutter is a method of determining the output of a linear system as a function of time where the input function as well as the unit iepulse response function (IRF) is known. The method was developed for electrical circuits, but can ce generalized to any linear systc~.. The convol ution process is described in the relation: t V 2 (t)
- Y g (t - t ) U(t) dt (1) o where V2 (t) = the output function, as a function of tire, t U(t) = the unit impulse response function (IRF) of the system V (t - t )
- the input function i
T = the quantity of time measured backward f rcrn any tire t Essentially, the convolution process is a weighting process in which each value of V2 is determined by each past value of Yg suitably weightec ty the IRF. Take, for exampic, the decaying exponential function as the tratise response function: U(t) U(t) = e-\ t t a
s-
.i Here V2 is mainly influenced by recent values of V1 while "very ole" values of Vi have very little ef fect on Y2 '
Consicer the sate of a constant input rate as an exa-ple: Yg (t) = 1 then the form Cf the convolution integral becomes: t Y2 (t) = 1 e-At dt o Evaluating the integral gives, . Y,ce .1 0 -e-") ,
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which is the familiar equation that describes the buildup of a tracer in a system where the input is constant and the loss is a first-order rate constant. The added advant.go of the convolution integral is that it can also be evaluated numericaily. This is very useful for instances where the input is not constant or cannot be described adequately by a mathematical expression. This is basically the type of input we have with the available iodine-131 air concentration data. A very good description of convolution w f th examples and numerical methods of computation can be fourd in Cooper and McG111em (1967), . e 5
'. c f'#rti'" *s js:I; 1 for tht, i r!.a! a t i cr. pa th.ay , the tr pul e,e ru ' 0"St N,
t t;gtti = e ~*AI d o whero 1 g = the effe:tivt loss constant of iccine-131 in the cc- ( ~I). It incluces both the biological loss constant anc tre raciolog'c;l h decay constant. [ The IFF f or the ingestion pathway is deperdent on two exponentials: I e~lEt , g-2At (3) 0;c(t) = C A
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A E A l where C = a constant dependent en the rate of contaminated grass eaten ty ' ti.e cow, the f raction of this grass which is centamiaated, and the f raction of iodine-131 ingested which is transf erred to the milk. l A E = the ef fcctive envircnmer.tal icss constant of todir,e-131 on the pasture grass (d-1). It includes both the weathering or field-less constant and the radiological decay constant. In tne discussion to follcw, we will refer to these ef f ective less constar.ts by thei r equis aler t 3f f ective half times in days which arc related by: T = In2D Hofiman and Bees (1979) hav> nado a study of the variation in the ef fective environmental loss half time TE. They rave found f rem tre
'iterature that Tg is quite .ariable witt a'ran 3 of between 3.t' to 5 day s
=ith a r t en cf 4.5 eays. He.ever, Shaef er (Miller et al.,1979, p. 40 g.t eser.t t ve1.et of T(, cstin ated f rcn. rt.1 eases of f cdine-131 E. Cru ct r ar.c Si' e
",*"si-c that . a r) f r:..~ 0.9a ic 4.6 day s v ith a r-ean cf 2.9 day s.
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' r t . t.
. 't. 't - c r i. Iike the actual reactcr ch ases *.r.ar.
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A es;r-**(*ta' st1.;s. we
- d.e assL'ree f or the tcIlow ing ct scass'ce. 4 T( 541.&
C 8 3 cay s. Scr tre ef f ective an9 mal hal f i t f e. Tp a va16e of arcunc cre cay hat - bes- f rme-tly given in the literature. Ga rr.er a nc Ru', sell (R6s sel l, IM6. ! p.3C4) give a s alue cf 'a' f I f fe of 16 hours f or the first part of t'? cocay cweve. A value cf cr4 cay was fcune f rom th e CERT e m pe rt eent s t-4. ' e, et al. 19fA. p. 5 9). values f;* Crescoe anc Monticello releases given by Staeffer (Wille* et al., 197. p. 4 4 ) give T3 values ranging f reer. 0.59 tc 2.15 c a y s w i th a mean of 0.66 cay s. For tee same reasce as above for selecit ; t'"TA E walue c' O.7 cay was used. TP.e a t e concentra tt o i measurements (Figures 6A, 7A, 8 A1 that vers ct a te.ec at locations cicsest to the three farms stuctec were ccnvo16tec w ? tt sac? of the two f epul se response f unctions ( f.e.. Inhalation anc legesttoa;. The resulting ov*.;st functions then were comparoc to the actual ceasi. rec valwes c8 ellh concentrat f on. Figures 6 thru 8 show these p' ots. Ey pe63 al a;pearance, it is arguec that at least for the first ten cays or se aftsr t*e acctcent, the output curve from the inhalation f epulse respoese f 66cticen " k
- sas more sistlar to the plot of actus1 cata than that free the f e;estion pathw ay. The outpvt functions (Figures 6b,c - 8b.c) co nct, how ever, stow the cecontration quantitatively. Since correction f actors vowic have tc be applied. However, the graphs oc show the concen-tration vart at toe.s cualitatively.
A s a f w rth er a rgum ent, the cross correlations of the output cata f rom tr e cca.c16 tic.es were sace eith the actual allk concentration cata for it.e i f test tee cays for comparison. The usual Pearsen pr>> duct roment correlation coef f ?ciert was ottainec using the MINITAB statistical computing system (f raa et al., 1976). Tacle I shows these results which furtters the l a r g.e arr t tr.a t th e t nh al a t i on p a thw ay s e s th e p redom i na nt s ech a n i s e in which i ras?cicctr.e was trarsferrec to cows' ellk in the ten cays (at least) succeec t rg the accident. l IhHeiA?!CW PA*PwAY MOC{L
'c *wrt*er test t* e 'et aletten hypotrests, cata to certve an inhalation-
't-- t'. tar fer f a c t or .t r e c: t a ' r.e c f rce a report by Stuart O. Black ans 7
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TABt r 1. u'ts of Cross Correlation of tne Output Value:, Jm the Convolution with Mea. ;ree Values of , lodine-131 ktik Concentrations , Pathway M Incestien of Grass Air Inhalation Becker -0.371 0.949 Alvine 0.208 0.972 F1 sher 0.5 86 0.887 Delbert S. Earth on some of their experiments carried out at the EPA Environ-mental Mon toring and Support Laboratory near Las Vegas (Black and Earth, i 1975) and a personal coemunication from Paul VoillegrE in which he gave us some data on an inhalation experiment he carried o..t during one of the CERT experiments near Idaho Falls. He found that, in an experimert of over one-hour dur atier., his cows inhaled a total of 0.74 Ci of iodine-131 f rom an integrated air concentration of 520 pC1-s-m~3 The peak milk concentration following inhalation was 1400 pC1/['witJ. a 2-1/2 day half-life. Let us cefine a parameter, eg, which relates the peak concentration of tocine-131 in milk (pC1/L) derived from air intakef a) to the integrated air concentration (pCi-s-s-33 e Peak Milk Concentration ,3,t-1,3-1 (4) I ; Integrated Air Concentration Then f rom the data of Vo1116que given above and that of Black and Barth (1975, p.15) we can calculate a value for Fr. Table 2 shows these experimental data and the results of the calculation. (a) This terr, f rom Black and Barth includes inhalation as well as ingestien of iodinc-131 occurring when the com licks its muzzle, cares or sur-rcuncing objects. 8
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- The ic:'ne .et .i n the f e m of a c,a s u-4 rp t*.'s e n;cr f.-c r t.
e.. A e;;*r.ssior line may be creer. eetweer ine two ;cints: et m: c, ,, d ar.c the 95th percentilc, Xgg, which are calculate: f rc:= c r g * *.a1 02:a in t'e-
'Olle.in; r ant.er (Hof feran anc Eacs. '979, pr. 7-9) .
yen. - ytr. = exp(.), an: f5) y gg - eup ( + 2.326 -) (t:
.r ere anc - are the pc::ulation e ear valve anc stance r: cu<atten r..s t ect : v el y. For calet.latt:nal purect,c .e s til attuce tto estimatc? c' t'i e s t vel et aro the ser e. Then
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=
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1 bi C so the frost probable valce is given by (9) Xp = exp (L -c 2), and the trean value by (10) X = exp ( + a 2/2) f actors sortec in ascencing orcer along with Table 3 shows the F3 their cumulative probattlities calculated using the relationship
, p. 43 (1 - 0.375)/(n + 0.25) recommended by Gosslee and Mitchell (1972, for a small number of data points, n. Tne particle stre is given for the Black and Barth experisents. It is *nteresting to note that Fg and particle size is inversely relatec.
1 i TABLE 3 Sorted Fg Values with Their Corresponding Cumulative Probabilities and Particle Size Cumulative Probability Partic.le Sire (sm) i Fy (1 - 0.375)/5.25 x 1005 12 23 i 1.8E-6 2 '2.7E-6 31 50 2 3 6.6E-6 69 0.13 4 7.4E-6 68 (Gas) 5 2.7E-5 Frer-Figure 9 is a leg normal plot of the'se experimental data points. the regression line and equations (9) and (10), we find trat tre recten (50 percentile) value is 5.8 x 10-6, the mean is 1.C x 10-5, anc u e r c t p ro b a t l e i s 1.9 x 10-6 ,,3 g-1.,-1, 10 i - - - _ - _ _ _ __-
s t I 4* 8 t;- *ta utility cate 7r 'V' a i r c c Bc e r.*.- a t i c '.s r c 2 t '. - ( ; a ' * * . t <. - t .
*r
. cayt f rce noon of .g Warch te ncrn of 31 Farch. a'r c o att: s -
t- ttro f arms were estimated. Ai r concer.trations c' icct r e-131 a* t*. a'.-cstr Otse vatice Center and Golcsbore monitoring sites were e>*ra f.at(c to trat of the Becrer, Alwine and Fisher si*t:s respectivi, usirg curves of c lutten f actor versus distance fcune in Auxier '1979, pp. 111. 113). Since nc air rcr.ito-ing of todire-131 was perf ormet at the f ar.-0, all enitoring
'1tc1 ha: to te chosen that were nearly in the same direction as One es:e tive f arm sites. The F; was then calculated for the ttree f arms . a ti e 41 f rort tl.e mt ssurec milk concentrations on the 31st f assume (t to be it.e pea *;. f.ote that the missing data value for peak milk concentraticn en 31 March has been extrapolated f rom the succeeding days and f rom the values at the cther far-s, The ccncentration of iodine-131 in milk or other animal products f rcm a* r inhalation is usually insignificant compared to that resulting from ingestien of pasture grass contamir.ated by the same air. How eve *, f or the special circumstance where animals obtain all their nutrition f rce un:entami-natec stored f eed or silage, while having access to the outdoor air, inhala-tion may to a primary path ay of iodine-131 from air to milk.
The peak concentration in milk in pC1/L may be estimated f rom air inhelation knowing the integrated air concentration in pCi-s-m"3 at the ic:ation ofthe animals. Hence, f.T IllI C.; r = Fi 1(t) dt (PC1/L)Poak whcre C,. 7
= the peak icdine-131 concentration in milk (pCi/L)
F y
= the air to milk transfer f actor as defired previously
- (t) = the iocine-131 air concentration as a function of time at the pasture (pC1/m3 )
T= the curation of the release l J, . y' n g V
TABt F 4. Iodine-131 Inhalation Transfer Factor, Fg . and Percentile for.Three Farm Sites Assuming Inhalation Pathway Only Ext.T(33 F III F(2) For F rm IAC I4I Peak Conc. I Pe rcen t i l o' Location III Location 3 g ,3.t-l_,-1 3 g (Mt) Site (M1) (pC1/m3 ) (pct /m ) (pCl-s/m 3 _gp ggft3 _Sito _ _ 20.1 31 5.4E6 20 3.7E-6 34 Becker 1.6/140' Falmouth 2.3/159' 20.3 4.8 6.3 E5 8.5 1.0E 5 71 Alwine 1.1/ 61
- Obs. Center 0.4/_Bfi*
7.3 ES(5) 7.4 1.0E-5 71 Goldsboro 1.6/253
- 23.9 7.4 F1 sher 3.5/221*
g , (1) The first figure represents miles from plants the second figure, degrees from true north with respect to reactor. (2) Sample averaged over 2 days (noon of 29 March to noon of 31 March) (3) Extrapolated f rom I at reference measurement site (4) Integrated air concertration (over 2 days) (5) Extrapolated (6) The intersection of Fg with the regression line of Figure 9 a . .DA
. ./
,1 When 1(t) is not specifically known, an average r.ay te used,T , with the time T to obtain an appre.xleate integrated air cencentration. In that instance:
IIU C,p = Fy TT (rC1/L) Peak CONC.USION To conclude, we feel that the primary pathway of radiotodine to the cows' and goats' silk during the first week or so after the TMI 2 accicert was through inhalation; a smaller portion may have been contributed by ingestion from sporadic grazing on the dry pasture available to the animals at the time primarily for exercise, especially af ter the middle of April when new pasture growth cemenced. RECOWENDATIONS , In order to more easily determine the pathway to milk of radiciodine we released into the atmosphere af ter an accident at a nuclear power plant, recommend that the NRO consider the following enhancererts to an applicant's monitoring program:
- Place iodine air sampling stations at locations of grazing animals.
The filters of these samples should be analyzed at least daily.
- Fasture vegetation should be sampled and analyzed at these locations, f
- \
- Place real time thyroid counters on selected cows as soon af ter the accident as possible and have de data telenetered to a central command post at the site such as the Emergency Operations Facility (EOF).
In addition, we feel that these recommendationse if carried cut successfully in the hcurs and days succeeding an accident, would further the validation l of pattway medc1s presently used by the hRC and the nuclear industry. 13
s RE; E RD.;E E { i . ,
- e r , J . A. , e t a l . 1979. "Feport of the Task C out en weal: .
1 e "t't at: s c:, t r e t ry." Pres 1 cent's Cc -rission en tt e Acc* :s t at Thre Islare, washington, D.C. Eidea, 5:.a.-t C. , and Cel tert S. Eartt. 1976. "Aact o ccine Prec :: : f or tiuclea r T e s t s." EPA-600/e-76-C27, U.S. Enviror-ental Frciecticr A grincy , Las Vegas, Nevada.
"cf f a e n. f. Ow en, and Charles F. Baes, III. 1979. "A Stattstical analys r f c- Precteting Food Chain Transport and Internal Ocse of Racionuclices."
CEL/NUoEG/TN-282, Oak Ricge National Laboratory, Cak Ricge, Tenressee. Willer, W. C., et al. 1979. "The Evaluation of Selectec Precictive Moceis and Parameters for the Environmental Trans. port and Cosirretry of Racio-r u cl i de s." ORNL/TM-6663, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. 1966. radteactivity and Hecar Dig;,. Pergaron Press, Passe 11. R. S. how York. Hawley, C. A. e t al . 1964 ' Controlled Environment, Radiotectre Tests National Reactor Testing Station." USAEC 100-12035, Icabo Operations Office. 1967. Methcos of Sieral and System Cooper, G. R. , a nd C. D. M cGil l em. Analysis. Hol t, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., New York. Gesslee, D. G., and T. J. Mitchell. 1972. "Are Most Biological Peasurements Approximately Normally Distributed." XIII, Bier-etrv Netes for Fesearch Bielecists, Statistics Department, Nathematics Division, Oak Ricge National lateratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Ry a n, T. A. J r., B. L. Joi ner and B. F. Ry a n. 1976. EJNITA9 Student Hardtock. Duxtury Press, North Scituate, Massachusetts.
i l FIG"RE 1. Locations of Farms and lodint Air templing St-tions North i Pennsylvania Turnpike
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a( ly I
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