ML17209A007

Forwards Facility Evacuation Time Estimates in Response to NRC 791129 Request

ML17209A007
Person / Time
Site:	Turkey Point
Issue date:	07/17/1980
From:	Robert E. Uhrig FLORIDA POWER & LIGHT CO.
To:	Grimes B Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
L-80-225, NUDOCS 8007230454
Download: ML17209A007 (12)

Text

Fi REGULATO INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION TEM (RIDS)

ACCESSION NBR:8007230450 DOC ~ DATE: 80/07/17 NOTARIZEDs NQ DOCKET FACIL:50-335 St. Lucie Planti Unit 1P Florida Power 8 Light Co. 05000335 AUTH ~ NAME AUTHOR AFFILIATION UHRIGr R ~ Es Florida Power L Light Co, REC IP ~ NAME RECIPIENT AFFILIATION GR IMES E B. K ~ Emergency Preparedness Program Office

SUBJECT:

Forwards facility evacuation time estimates in response to NRC 791129 request.

I DISTRIBUTION CODE:

TITLE:

AO<lSS Emer COPIES RECEIVED:LTR gency Planning Implementation P'NCE 4 (OL SIZE':

Stage)

NOTES:

RECIPIENT COPIES RECIPIENT COPIES ID CODE/NAME LTTR ENCL ID CODE/NAME LTTR ENCL ACTION; CLARKE R ~ 07 1 1 NELSONpC ~ 1 1 INTERNAL: D/DIREHUM FAC S 1 1 DIRg EMER PL, PRO 1 1 PREP'5

'6 DIRgHUM FAC, SFY 1 0 EMERG 2 2 ISE 15 2 '2 NRC'DR 02 1 1 0 1 0 RAD ASSESS SR18 1 1 01, 1 STATE PROGRAMS 2 2 EXTERN L: ACRS 16 16 LPDR 03 1 1 NSIC 00 1 1 JUL 24 1980 TOTAL NUMBER OF COPIES REQUIRED; LTTR 33 ENCL 31

M f ,IJ 4 '

FLORIDA POWER 4 LIGHT COMPANY July 17, 1980 L-80-225 Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Attention: Hr. Brian K. Grimes, Program Director Emergency Preparedness Program Office U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C. 20555

Dear Hr. Grimes:

Re: St. Lucie Unit 1 Docket No. 50-335 Evacuation Time Estimates The attached information is being submitted in response to your letter of November 29, 1979. It is based on work performed by our consultant, HNt1 Associates. The information has been reviewed and found acceptable by appropriate state and local officials.

Very truly yours, Robert E. Uhrig Vice President Advanced Systems 8 Technology REU/NAS/cph Attachment cc: Nr. J. P. O'Reilly, Region II Harold F. Reis, Esquire PEOPLE... SERVING PEOPLE

V

~ ~

ATTACHMENT Re: St. Lucie Onit I Docket No. 50-335 Evacuation Time Estimates The estimates contained herein are based on updated population data and on EVAC, a computer-based, real-time, traffic simulation model. A more detailed description of EVAC is contained in Appendix A to this attachment.

Population data were converted to estimated numbers of automobiles evacuating selected sectors of the 10-mile Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). Two estimates were generated: a conservative estimate (Figure 1) based on an automobile occupancy of 2.6 persons per automobile, and a less conservative estimate (Figure 2) based on 3.2 persons per automobile. The two estimates represent a reasonable range of vehicles departing the EPZ.

An evacuation traffic network, consisting of major streets and intersections within the EPZ, was developed by HMM Associates based on a field survey.

Clear time estimates were then made for 7 cases. Normal weather and adverse weather scenarios were examined for each case. The results are shown in Tables I and 2.

Six categories of special facilities within the 10-mile EPZ were evaluated:

schools, nursing homes, retirement facilities, Department of Health and Rehabilitative Serv'ices (DHRS) residences, incarceration facilities, and hospitals. It has been'stimated that it would take approximately 30 minutes for school busses to return to the public schools and begin transporation.

Private schools would be evacuated by parents or car pools. The two nursing homes would be evacuated by private vehicle and by ambulance or school bus dispatched at. the request of the local Civil Defence Agency. Retirement facilities would be evacuated by private automobile, with possible assistance from the local Council on Aging. The DHRS facilities involve a small number of people who could be transported by police vehicles, school busses, or private vehicles. Hospitals would be evacuated by a variety of means (e.g.,

ambulance, bus, van, private vehicle), with the possibility that some patients and staff may remain sheltered in the hospital, especi ally if movement would present a greater health hazard than the potential radiological exposure e.

Local officials estimate that the initial notification time will be about 30 minutes. It is estimated that visual confirmation of evacuation will take approximately 30 minutes.

Alternatives to evacuation, e.g., taking shelter, controlling access to affected areas, and control of foodstuffs, would be considered in cases where evacuation itself carried a risk comparable to the potential radiological exposure.

1 l' I i' ei L I l V

2109 0

. 22,057 308 385 0 1,437 2 692 0

5,417 308 6,206 0 5417 0 0

2,966 38 1,80 0 45

( 83 0 83 0 118 . 4 83 . ERE 83 16 0 1,3 4 1,017 0 188 53 0 STATiON 1525 AUTOS AT POWER p 00 (assuming per auto)

+ 10 m) 0 9mi p

8ml 82 7ml 82 Omi 164 5mi 261 4'mi263 23 2mi 9 I 2 persons 884 29 Op 2 9 9 6 1,35 0 4 35 0 788 p5 52 657 36 131 1,150 80 ESE V&% 103 4,018 200 0 444 2,023 0

167 2,466 339 0 617 0 678 SV/ 1,168 1,637 0 2,340 339 SE 0

1,693 1 233 ~6 617 SS 339 2,001 1,076 3,603 9,684 FIGURE 1 1980 AUTOMOBILES - RESIOENT PLUS DAILY TOURIST ANO SEASONAL VISITORS (2. 6 People per Automobile)

Total Number of Autos = 49,-675

250 3I & z(gg II&7 4402 Z50 sN2.

q4)2.

Zg IZ-Idfo7 NH5f

~8 r8 (8

(8 I'$ p I+7 ~

8 o p O 0 0o oo 0 V/10 mi 9mi 8ml 7mi 6' Swi 4asi ZI+

Smi 2mi 8 1~

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I% Z.IZ I 0 o o Z44 o 0 0

8 eo 0 0 gg LJ3 553

/01 0

.>z~~ 'IO l(u3 Rl I~3 f3+

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IZi'IGURE

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2 1980 AUTOMOBILES: PEAK PERMANENT, SEASONAL YISITORS, AND DAlLY TOURISTS (3.2 persons per car)

Total Number of Autos = 40,368

TABLE 1 RANGE OF CLEAR TIME ESTIMATES DURING NORMAL WEATHER (minutes)

Evacuation Area ~Hi h E Low Estimate 0-2 miles 80 80 South, 0-5 miles 180 110 West, 0-5 miles 140 105 North, 0-5 miles 140 105 South, 0-10 miles 295 220 West, 0-10 miles 275 205 North, 0-10 miles 350 190 The area to the East was not examined as a general case because it lies over water.

TABLE 2 RANGE OF CLEAR TIME ESTIMATES DURING ADVERSE WEATHER * (MINUTES)

Evacuation Area Hi h Estimate Low Estimate 0-2 miles 95 95 South, 0-5 miles 195 125 West, 0-5 miles 155 120 North, 0-5 miles 155 120 South, 0-10 miles 310 235 West, 0-10 miles 290 220 North, 0-10 miles 365 205 The area to the East over water.

was not examined as a general case because it lies

• Mixed rain and thunderstorms

P L U J'

I t

APPENDIX A THE EVAC MOOEL The EVA'C Model is a traf fic network simulation model. It was specifically designed to provide evacuation clear-time estimates, and related information, for. use in emerg'ency plan-ning. EVAC was developed by HMM Associates during the Winter and Spring of 1980. Dr. Yosef Sheffi, Warren Powell and Hank Mahmassani are the principal authors of the model.

The EVAC Model applies the principles of'he H1c1hway Capacit Manual to. estimating traffic conditions during evacua-tions. Highway geometric data and population (or automobile) density data within the area to be evacuated are input into the Model. 8ased on these inputs, the Model computes traf fic vol-umes and travel speeds as a function of demand and capacity for each highway link within the evacuation study area.

Given the evacuation highway network data and traf fic loading rates and points, the Model calculates evacuation routes, evacuation traffic volumes, and operating speed by link. EVAC simulates the movement of the tza ffic'long the alternative routes and calculates the times required foz the simulated movements.

Route choices are dynamically determined at each inter-section as a function of predetermined "preference factors" and traffic conditions on the downstream link. The most direct route out of the evacuation area is generally given a higher preference factor; alternate routes are given lower preference factors. When congestion develops and traffic speeds for pre-ferred routes decline, traffic is routed to alternate routes with higher travel speeds.

At each intersection, impedance to traffic flow is calcu-lated. Where traffic signals exist "green time" for each approach is assigned. Where no signals exist, conflicting flows through the intersection are regulated -by the model.

Total flows in this case are a function of "priority" and traf-fic demand. Priority is predetermined's priority 81 or priority ik2. First priority is given to the dominant or major routes ~ Second priority is given to the minor oz secondary routes, such as those controlled by stop signs.

To keep track of network performance, the Model updates statistics on the full network and on each link at the end of each specified time increment.

EVAC can calculate both current and cumulative statistics for the entire network and for each link at the end of each time step, and/or whenever requested. The statist'ics reported include capacity, flow, queues, current and total volumes, speeds, network occupancy, and summary of departures. From these data, all significant changes in the network can be traced through the term of the evacuation.