ML18192A399

NUS-1416, Rev. 1, Estimate of the Probability That an Aircraft Will Impact the Pvngs.

ML18192A399
Person / Time
Site:	Palo Verde
Issue date:	07/25/1975
From:	Solomon K Arizona Nuclear Power Project, NUS Corp
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
NUS-1416, NUS-1416, Rev 1
Download: ML18192A399 (128)

Text

Rev. 1 auly 25 .1975)

NUS-'1416 ESTIMATE OF THE PROBABILITY THAT AN, AIRCRAFT WILL IMPACT THE PVNGS Prepared for ARIZONA .NUCLEAR POWER PR03'EC7 3'une, 1975, THE ATTACHED FILES ARE OFFICIAL RECORDS

~ 'OF THE OFFICE OF REGULATION..

THEY HAVE BEEN CHARGED TO YOU FOR A LIMITED TIME PERIOD ANS MUST BE RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL RECORDS STATION 008. ANY,.

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'REMOVED FOR REPRODUCTION MUST BE RETURNED TO ITS/THEIR ORIGINAL ORDER.

DEADLINE-:RETURN DATE - ~~~ ~~ 2 I

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NUS-1416 ESTIMATE OF THE PROBABILITY THAT AN AIRCRAFT WILL IMPACT THE PVNGS

"" Prepared for ARIZONA NUCLEAR POWER PROJECT by Kenneth A. Solomon, Ph.D.

E. R. Schmidt Manager, Plant Department NUS CORPORATION 14011 Ventura Blvd.

Sherman Oaks, California 91423 June 1975 Revision 1 7/25/75

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TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE INTRODUCTION Purpose I.2 Scope of Study I.3 Study Basis ESTIMATE OF THE ANNUAL PROBABILITYTHAT AN AIRCRAFT WILL IMPACT THE PVNGS Air Activity in the Vicinity of the PVNGS 11.1.1 Alert Areas A-231 and A-232 II. 1. 2 Luke Air Force Base to Gila Bend Gunnery Range II. 1. 3 Airways V-16 and V-94 II.1.4 Buckeye Airport 10 II. 1. 5 Pierce Airport II. l. 6 Other Air Activity II. 2 Aircraft Crash Probability Per Mile 12 II. 3 PUNGS Effective Plant Area 16 II. 4 Estimate of the Aircraft Impact Probability Per 16 Year Into The PVNGS APPENDK A. 1

• AIRCRAFT CRASEI PROBABELITY PER MILE A. 1-1 Purpose (or category) of Flight 19 A.1-2 Mode of Aircraft Flight 20 A.l-3 Other Factors Affecting Aircraft Crash Probability 21 A. 1-4 Summary 21 APPENDK A.2 EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA, AE 30 A.2-1 True Plant Area 30 A.2-2 Shadow Area 30

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TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd)

PAGE A. 2-3 Skid Area 33 A.2-4 Total Effective Plant Area .34 APPENDIX A. 3 FORMULATION OF AIRCRAFT CRASH PROBABILITY PER EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA 37 APPENDIX A. 4 ESTIMATE, OF THE AIRCRAFT CRASH PROBABILITY PER EFFECTIVE, PLANT AREA 41 A.4-1 Estimate of the Probability Per Year That An Aircraft . 4l Traveling Between Luke AFB and Gila Bend Gunnery Range Will Impact PVNGS A.4-2 Estimate of the Probability Per Year That An Aircraft .42 Traveling Along V-16 Will Impact PVNGS A ~ 4-3 Estimate of the Probability Per Year That An Aircraft 43 Travelling Along V-94 Will Impact PVNGS APPENDIX B GLOSSARY 44 REFERENCES 53

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LIST OF TABLES PAGE II.2-1 AIR ACTIVITIES AREA NEAR PVNGS

'able Table II.2-2 FLIGHT CATEGORIES USED IN THIS STUDY 14 Table II.2-3 MODE OF OPERATIONS USED IN THIS STUDY 15 Table III.4-1 ESTIMATE OF THE PROBABILITY THAT AN 18 AIRCRAFT VlILLIMPACT THE PVNGS Table A. 1-1 AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT STATISTICS AS A FUNCTION 22 OF THE )TH FLIGHT CATEGORY Table A.1-2 AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT STATISTICS AS A FUNCTION 25 OF BOTH THE jTH FLIGHT CATEGORY AND THE kTH MODE OF OPERATION Table A.2-1 BUILDING AND AIRCRAFT DIMENSIONS 35 Table A. 2-2 TOTAL EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Alert Areas and Traffic Patterns for Palo Verde Site Figure 2 Airports in the Environs of PVNGS Site,;. ' r 6

Figure A.3-1 Straight Line Flight Path Near PVNGS 40

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SUMMARY

The probability that any aircraft (of any size) will impact the PVNGS is

-8 estimated to be less than 6.0 x 10 per year (see Table III.4-1). This estimate is based on conservative input assumptions and can be considered as an upper bound estimate. It is important to mention that this estimate does not represent the probability of having a major accident at PVNGS, but, rather, this estimate can be considered to represent the probability of all types of postulated aircraft accidents into the. PVNGS (including a postulated strike from small aircraft and a postulated glancing angle strike of a large aircraft) .. The probability that a DC-10 (the largest aircraft expected in the Site vicinity) will directly impact the PVNGS is estimated to be less than

-8 10 per year. On previous studies of other nuclea'r reactor sites, con-struction of reactor containments to withstand direct aircraft impact has been required when the yearly probability of direct impact by an aircraft of sufficient

-6 size to cause damage has been estimated to range between 1 x 10 to

-7 1 x 10 or greater.

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INTRODUCTION Puruose This study has been prepared for the Arizona Nuclear Power Project, (ANPP),

for their Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, (PVNGS) .. The purpose of this study is to estimate the annual probability that an aircraft will impact the PVNGS. Also, this report provides a complete description of all air activities in the alert areas A-231 and A-232;,Luke Air Force Base and other military facilities in the area; Airways V-16 and V-'94; and Buckeye Airport and Pierce Airport. This description includes the characteristics of the aircraft used, types (i.e., categories) of operations, operations per year, aircraft altitudes and speeds, pilot experience, and all other information that may affect the possible risk imposed by these flights upon the plant (including a determination of what munitions, if any, are carried on board the aircraft) .

I.2 Sco e of Stud The study scope is as follows:

(1) Determine the location of all air activity in the vicinity of the PVNGS.

This air activity includes airports and airfields, airways, military facilities, and locations of aerial application. Also, determine if expansion of the air activity is anticipated in the.future.

(2) Determine the type of aircraft involved in this air activity,,the ex-pected number of yearly operations, the expected range in aircraR speeds, pilot experience and purpose of flight operation.

l (3) Based on national aircraft accident data, estimate the crash probability per mile as a function of accident magnitude, category of operation, and mode of flight.

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(4) Estimate the PVNGS effective plant area.

(5) Based on the accident rate per mile, the location of the PVNGS re-lative to the air activity, and the effective plant area, estimate the aircraft impact probability per year at the PVNGS.

This study is based on the following criteria:

National aircraft accident statistics have been used to estimate the accident rate as a function of flight category and flight mode. Local crash statistics have been examined, but they have not been used due to the relatively small number of aircraft crashes in the local region. After examination of these limited number of local crashes, it appears that the local region, relative to the rest of the United States, has an approximately average potential for aircraft crashes.

2. For the purpose of this study, aircraft accidents statistics are divided into three categories; Class A, Class B, and Class C.

Class A accidents (total) include all aircraft accidents that involve in jury (no matter how trivial) or mortality to ground personnel, other ground population, flight crew, or passengers. Class A accidents(total) also include all aircraft accidents that involve any degree of pro-perty loss. Class B accidents (major) are that subset of Class A accidents (total) that could cause the aircraft to crash or collide with any structure not at the airport. Class B accidents (major) may or may not involve human injury or mortality but do involve some property, aircraft, or equip

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~ ~ ~y ment damage or loss. Class C accidents (fatal) -are that subset of Class A accidents (total) which causes one or more human fatalities.

For the purpose of this study and in an effort to remain conservative, the Class B (rather than the more often used Ciass C) aircraft accident rate is used. There are more Class A accidents (total) than Class B accidents (major) and there are more Class B accidents (major) than Class C accidents (fatal).

3 The effective plant area for the three PVNGS units is calculated for the three containment buildings, the three fuel buildings, and the three radwaste buildings as a function of aircraft type and speed. The total effective plant area for the entire PVNGS Site is calculated to be equal to the sum of the effective plant areas of each of the nine structures specified above. In order to remain conservative, no credit has been taken for the'tructures mutual shadowing and shielding.

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ESTIMATE OF THE ANNUAL PROBABILITY THAT AN AIRCRAFT WILL IMPACT THE PVNGS II.1 Air Activit in the Vicinit of the PVNGS The air'activities originating from:

l. Alert areas A-231 and A-'232;

2. Luke Air Force Base to the Gila Bend Gunnery Range Air Route;

3. 'irways V-16 and V-94; 4~ Buckeye Airport; and

5. Pierce Airport are discussed below.

There are currently no air activity nor is there expected to be any air activity in the future at Mauldin Airstrip, Perryville Airstrip and Gila Compressor Airstrip. (7) Aircraft flights at Phoenix Litchfield and William Air Force Base are not expected to affect the air space near the PVNGS. (11)

The location of the alert areas is shown in Figure 1 and the location of the airports in the environ of the PVNGS site is shown in Figure 2.

II. l. 1 Alert Areas A-231 and A-232 The type of aircraft present in the alert areas A-231, A-232A and A-232B, and A-232C are (1) F104 Starfighter Jets; (2) F4 Phantom jets; and (3) F15 Eagle Jets. Aircraft weight varies from 20, 000 pounds to 55, 000 pounds (maximum limit when loaded). The F104 Starfighter jets are the largest of the three (1.,2) aircraft identified in the alert areas.

Aircraft speeds vary from 300 Knots true air speed (approximately 346 miles per hour) to 450 Knots true air speed (approximately 516 miles per hour) in (1, 2) the southern end of A-232.

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There are approximately 160 sorties per day, 5 days per week (or approximately 42, 000 sorties per year); out of Luke AFB. All enter A-231 airspace and most enter A-232 airspace. Aircraft pass through alert areas A-231 and A-232 en route to'training areas (see Figure 1). '.

(1, 2) The distance from these alert (12-14) areas to the PVNGS and the altitudes. of these alert areas is given in Table 2.2-1 of the PVNGS PSAR.

The aircraft carry training munitions only. These munitions are: (1,2)

BDU 33 recoverable, practice bombs (they are 25 pounds each and carry a low explosive, i. e., "spotting charge").

2. MK - 106 recoverable, practice bombs (they are 10 pounds each and carry the same charge as the BDU-33); and

3. 2. 75 inch diameter rocket, powered by a low explosive propellant with no charge.

There is a high degree of pilot experience among the cadre. The majority of the non-cadre pilots are less experienced, however. These less experienced pilots are under the constant supervision of the cadre. No expansion of (2) aircraft activity in A-231 and A-232 is anticipated in the future.

IL1. 2 Luke Air Force Base to Gila Bend Gunne Ran e Luke.Air Force Base is located approximatel'y 33 miles east-northeast (ENE) of the PVNGS (see Figure 1). Of the approximately 160 jet aircraft sorties out of Luke AFB per day, the major portion of these sorties travel along an approximately straight line from Luke AFB to Gila Bend Gunnery Range, about 75 miles south-southeast (SSW) of Luke AFB. The purpose of these missions is to use the gunnery range at Gila Bend, The munitions carried on-board

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these aircraft and pilot experience are discussed in Section II.l.l above.

These aircraft return from Gila Bend Gunnery Range back to Luke AFB along approximately the same path. Since the jet aircraft travel from Luke AFB to Gila Bend Gunnery Range and return on an expected total of less than 42,000 sorties per year, there are less than 84,000 Qights back and forth per year. (1,2)

The type of jet aircraft flying from Luke AFB to Gila Bend Gunnery Range are F104 Starfighters, F4 Phantoms and F15 Eagles. These aircraft travel at true air speeds ranging from 300 Knots (approximately 346 miles per hour) to 450 Knots (approximately 516 miles per hour). They travel at altitudes ranging from 4, 000 to 6, 000 feet above ground level. These jet aircraft are not expected to pass closer than approximately 14 miles east-southeast (ESE) f th PVNGS(l, 2, 12, 13, 14)

No expansion of Luke AFB (including average number of daily aircraft operations) is anticipated in the future. Luke AFB Airfields which number two through eleven inclusive are not currently in operation, nor are they expected to be (1, 2) put into operation at a future date.

II. 1. 3, Airways V-16 and V-94 1.1.3. ~6 0 0 The airway V-16 (bearing 262 west of the Buckeye Vortac and bearing 258 east of the Buckeye Vortac) passes to within 5 miles north (N) 'of the PVNGS (12, 14) at its closest point (see Figure 1)

There are an approximate average of 70 aircraft obeying IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) along V-16 per day. There is an average of less than 200 aircraft obeying VFR (Visual Flight Rules) in the vicinity of V-16 per day. Hence, the

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total expected number of aircraft operations along or near V-16 (both IFR and VFR) averages less than 2-70 per day (or less than. approximately 100,000 operations per year). The aircraft in the vicinity of V-16 and along V-16 in-clude about 1/3 air carrier and 2/3 general aviation operations. The air-craft in the vicinity of V-16 and along V-16 range in size from single and (4, 5) twin engine propeller aircraft to DC-10 Jet Aircraft.

The operations along V-16=are expected to travel at true air speeds ranging from 100 miles per hour (for smaller general aviation aircraft) to 500 miles I Rev. 1 per hour (for larger air carrier-aircraft). The number of aircraft operations along V-16 is not expected to increase appreciably during the lifetime of the PVNGS. The air carrier flights transport passengers and/or cargo and are piloted by experienced, trained air carrier pilots that are assisted by (3,4, 5) co-pilots. The experience of those pilots flying general aviation is varied.

0 The airway V-94 (bearing 285 west of the Gila Bend Vortac) passes no closer (12, 14) than 20 miles southwest (SW) of the PVNGS (see Figure 1).

There are less than =100,000 operations per year along or near V-94. About 1/3 of these operations are U.S. Air Carrier and the remaining 2/3's are U.S. General Aviation. The aircraft in the vicinity of V-94 and along V-94, range in size from single and twin engine propeller aircraft to DC-10 jet

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The operations along V-94 are expected to travel at true air speeds ranging from 100 miles per hour (for smaller general aviation aircraft) to 500 miles per hour (for larger air carrier aircraft). The number of aircraft operations along V-94 is not expected to increase appreciably during the lifetime of the PVNGS. The air carrier flights transport passengers and/or cargo and Revision 1 7/25/75

5 and are piloted by experienced, trained air carrier pilots assisted'by co-pilots. The experience of. those pilots flying general aviation is varied.

II.1.4 Bucke e Ai ort Buckeye Airport is located approximately 11 miles east-northeast (ENE) of

'uckeye the PVNGS (see Figure 2). (12, 14) is a private airport. Twenty-three general aviation single and twin engine aircraft are based at Buckeye Airport. About 15 to 20 of these 23 general aviation aircraft are converted B-25's used almost exclusively for Qre fighting and sometimes for other civil applications. About 3 to 8 of these 23 aircraft are use'd for pleasure flights. (7) The approximate landing and takeoff speed at Buckeye Airport ranges from 60 mph to 70 mph. Inflight speed is not expected to exceed about 150 mph. The pilots using'Buckeye Airport are general aviation pilots certified on single engine aircraft (or twin engine aircraft when applicable) .

Some of these pilots have general aviation/application experience. (6,8)

The largest type of aircraft likely to land at'uckeye Airport is a converted B-25. There are no helicopter operations at Buckeye Airport. (5,6,7,8)

The runway at Buckeye Airport is north to south with a left traffic pattern.

The average number of weekly operations at Buckeye Airport is 150, (or approximately 8,000 per year). No expansion, of the Buckeye Airport is anticipated at a future date. (5,8)

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Pierce Airport is located approximately 13 miles east-southeast (ESE) of PVNGS (see Figure 2) '

(12,14) Pierce is a private facility used almost exclusively by farmers for crop-dusting (i.e., very low altitude, aerial application flights). There are, approximately 10,000 operations per year out of Pierce Airport. (9)

There are 17 single engine aircraft based at Pierce Airport. The aircraft, are flown by pilots that have varying degrees of experience flying crop dusters.

However, the majority of these pilots have more extensive crop dusting ex-perience. P, S,9)

The takeoff and landing speeds of these single, engine aircraft varies between 50 miles per hour and 80 miles per hour. The inflight speed is not expected to exceed 150 miles per hour. (4,7, S,g)

No expansion of Pierce Airport is anticipated during the expected lifetime of the PVNGS. (7)

II. l. 6 Other Air Activit II. l. 6. 1 Mauldin Airstri Mauldin Airstrip (located approximately 10 miles north-northwest (NNW) of PVNGS) is not currently in operation and it is not expected to be put into operation at a future date. (7,12-14)

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II.'1. 6. 2 Pe ville Airstri Perryville Airstrip (located approximately 20 miles east (E) of PVNGS) is not currently in operation and it is not expected to be put into operation at a (7,12-14) future date.

II. l. 6. 3 Gila Com ressor Airstri Gila Compressor Airstrip (located approximately 10 miles south (S) of PVNGS) is not currently in operation and is not expected to be put into operation at (7, 12-14) a future date.

IL'. 6. 4 Phoenix-Litchfield The Phoenix-Litchfield Airport has no flights expected in the PVNGS environ.

(12-14)

II. 1. 6. 5 Williams Air Force Base There are no flights from Williams AFB on a regular basis that travel within the PVNGS environs. Primary operations are to the east, northeast, and southwest of the base. Possibly, only an occasional transient aircraft from the west of the base'may pass through the PVNGS environs. If so, it would (11-14) be along an established airway, (viz., V-16 or V-94).

II. 2 Aircraft Crash Probabilit Per Mile The aircraft crash probability per mile as a function of flight. category and mode of flight is compiled in Appendix A. 1, Tables A. 1-1 and A. 1-2. The infor-mation that is presented is collected from various sources including military aircraft operational and accident data (1 6-20) U. S. General Aviation and (21-28)

U. S. Air Carrier operational and accident. data , and previous aircraft accident studies. (29-48)

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H The aircraft crash probability per mile is a strong function of the flight category and flight mode. The air activities examined in this study are defined in Table II.2-1. The flight categories used in this study are de-fined in Table II.2-2. The flight modes used in this study are defined in Table II.2-3.

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TA/LE I$ ';2-1 AIR ACTIVITIES AREA NEAR PVNGS Stud Index Air Activities Area Luke AFB to Gila Bend Gunnery Range i=2 Airway V-16 i=3 Airway V-94 TABLE II. 2-2 PLIGHT CATEGORIES USED IN THIS STUDY Stud Index Fli ht Cate or U. S. Certified Route Carriers Only j=2 U. S. Certified Air. Carrier Only j=3 U. S. General Aviation-Instructional Only j=4 U. S. General Aviation-Business/Corporate Only j=5 U. S. General Aviation-Pleasure Only U. S. General Aviation-Aerial Application only j=7 U. S. General Aviation-Air Taxi Only j=s U. S. (non-combat) Military

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TABLE II. 2-3 MODE OF OPEfRTIONS USED'IN THIS STUDY Stud Index k=1 takeoff (within 5 miles of airport)

.k=2 inf light k=3 landing (within 5 miles of a'irport)

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II. 3 PVNGS Effective Plant Area The PVNGS Effective Plant Area is estimated in Appendix A. 2 and is listed in Table A. 2-2. The Effective PVNGS Plant Area (for the three PVNGS units) is estimated for the following structures: the three containment buildings, the three fuel buildings, and the three radwaste buildings.

The Effective Plant Area is a function of (1) The True Plant Area., The true plant area is equal to the sum of the base areas of each of the identified structures; (2) The Shadow Area. The size of the shadow area for each of the identified structures is a function of the structure height and the angle of postulated aircraft impact; and (3) The Skid Area. The skid area for each of the identified structures is the area immediately adjacent to the structure into which an aircraft can be postulated to skid. The size of the skid area is a function of aircraft speed, weight, dimensions, and the terrain adjacent to the structure ~

Estimate of the Aircraft Im act Probabilit Per Year Into the PVNGS Appendix A. 3 and Appendix A. 4 include formulation and calculations to estimate the aircraft impact probability per year into the PVNGS as a function of air activity. Table II. 4-1 is a summary of these. estimates. Rev.l The probability that any aircraft (of any size) will impact the PVNGS is

-8 estimated to be less than 6. 0 x 10 per year. This probability is estimated (37, 41) using the Best Estimate Technique. The probabilities llstqd in Table II. 4-1 are based on conservative input parameters; therefore, these Rev.l probabilities can be considered as upper bound values. It is very important Revision 1 7/2S/75

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to mention that the probabilities listed in Table 11.4-1 do not necessarily, Rev. 1 represent the probabilities of having a major accident at PVNGS, but rather these probabilities could be considered to repres'ent all types of aircraft .

strikes into the PVNGS. Some of these postulated aircraft strikes are not considered serious enough to impair plant operation (e.g., an impact of a small aircraft or a glancing angle of a large aircraft) .

Revision 1 7/25/75

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TABLE II.4-1 Rev. 1 ESTIMATE OF THE PROBABILITY THAT AN AIRCRAFT WILL IMPACT THE PVNGS (Minimum[ Approximate Largest Type Air Activity Distance Number of Is Future of Aircraft Estimated Probability of a Originating Relative to Yearly Expansion Likely: (on a Potential Aircraft Impact at From PVNGS miles ~Oeraticns A~tntict ated re ular basis PVNGS er ear Alert Areas See Table 2. 2-1 No F-104 Starfighter A>>231 6. A-232 of PVNGS PSAR < 2e7

-l,0 84, 000 x 10 Rev. 1

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Luke AFB 33 ENE No F-104 Starfighter 100, 000 No DC-10 < S.8 x '10 Rev. 1-Airway V-16 5 N Airway V-94 20 SW 100, 000 No DC-10(') x 10-11 Buckeye Airport ll ENE 8, 000 No B-2S (d)

I Pierce Airport 13 ESE 10, 000 No Cessna 310 (d) )tee. i Mauldin Airfield 10 NNW Zero No Perryville Airs trip 20 E Zero No Gila Compressor 10 S Zero No Airstrip Phoenix Litchfield 28 E No Flights expected on a regular basis in the PVNGS environ.

Williams AFB 60 E No Flights expected on a regular basis in the PVNGS environ.

c (b) -8 TOTAL ESTIMATED PROBABILlTYTHAT ANY AIRCRAFT WILL IMPACT THE PVNGS < 6. 0 x 10 er ear

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Footnote to Table II.4-1 Rev. 1 (a) Using Best Estimate Technique. (37,41)

(b) Probability includes all types of postulated impacts (e.g., impact of small aircraft, glancing impact of aircraft, etc.) .

(c) Less than 10% of. the flights along the airway or in the vicinity of the airway are expected to be DC-10 aircraft, (the remaining flights will be smaller aircraft) . (6)

(d) According to U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan, Section 3.5.1.6, Article IlI.3 O'une 1975):

"II1.3 The probability of an aircraft crashing into the site should be estimated for cases where either of the following apply:

a. An airport is located within five miles of the site.

b. An airport with projected operations greater than 500 d 2 movements per year is located within ten miles of the site, or an airport with projected operations greater than 1000 d movements per year is located beyond ten miles from the site, where "d" is the distance in miles from the site."

Buckeye Airport is located d=l1 miles from the PVNGS Site 2

and has 8,000 operations per year. Since 8,000<(1,000) (11) then the probability of an aircraft originating from Buckeye Airport crashing into the PVNGS Site need not be calculated. Rev. 1 Pierce Airport is located d=l3 miles from the PVNGS Site and has 10,000 operations per year. Since 10,000< (1,000) (13) 2 then the probability of an aircraft originating from Pierce Airport crashing into the PVNGS Site need not be estimated ~

-18a-Revision 1 7/25/75

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Appendix A. 1 Aircraft Crash Probabilit Per Mile The probability per mile that an aircraft will crash is a function of several (15-28,44,45) factors including:

1. The flight category or purpose of flight (e. g., U. S. General Aviation-aerial application, U. S. Air Carrier passenger transport, etc. ).

2. The mode of aircraft flight (viz., takeoff, inflight, or landing);

3. Pilot Experience;

4. Weather Conditions; Time of day;

6. Air traffic density; and

7. Aircraft type.

A. 1-1 Pur ose or cate o of Fli ht Accident rate is a strong function of flight category. Table A.l-l list's the aircraft accident rate per million miles as a function of flight category.

The table is generated from.U.S. crash statisti'cs found in references 15 through 28.

The aircraft accident rates are listed for Class A (ail accidents), Class 8 (major accidents), and Class C (fatal accidents) for years 1967 through 1971 or 1972, inclusive; (for U.S. Air Carrier operations, 1972 is the latest year for which complete air crash statistics are, available, for U.S. General Aviation, 1971 is the latest year). In general, the aircraft accident rate has decreased since 1967. As a conservative prediction of future accident rates, the mean value of accident rates from 1967 through (15-28) 1972 (or 1971) is used, I

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The probability per mile of a Class B accident for U.S. Certified Route Carriers only (themajor contribution to U.S. Air Carriers)'s approximately

-6 -6 0.011 x 10 . This probability is approximately 0 ~ 028 x 10 for U,S.

Supplemental Air Carriers only. The approximate probability per mile of a

-6 Class B accident averaged for all U.S. General Aviation is 0.530 x 10 In particular, the approximate probability per mile of a Class B accident

-6 involving, (a) U.S. General Aviation-Instructional only is 0.330 x 10

-6 (b) U.S. General Aviation-Business/Corporate only is 0.370 x 10

-6 (c) U.S. General Aviation-Pleasure only is 0.940 x 10; (d)

U.S. General

-6 Aviation-Aerial Application only is 0.790 x 10; and (e) U.S. General

-6 Aviation-AirTaxi only is 0.320 x 10 A complete set of accident statistics for U.S. Military Aircraft are not published. However, based on military sources and other sources, it has been established that the Class B accident rates for military aircraft on non-.combat missions are of the same order of magnitude as the Class B (30) accident rates for U.S, Air Carriers. For the purpose of this study and in an effort to remain conservative, the U.S. Military Class B accident rate has been postulated to be 5 times greater than the U.S. Air. Carrier Class B accident rate.

A.1-2 Mode of Aircraft Fli ht Table A. 1-2 compares the Class B aircraft accident rate (averaged for 1967 to 1971 or. 1972) for each flight category as a function of the takeoff, inflight, and landing mode of operation. The information found in Table A.1-2 is taken from references 15-45. On an accident per mlle -basis, the safest mode-of flight is the inflight mode. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that takeoff is defined within five miles after takeoff and landing is defined as the five miles before touchdown. The inflight mode (including climb, in-Qight, and descent) is defined as the remaining air portion of the operation.

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Other Factors Affectin Aircraft Crash Probabilit The flight category and the flight mode are the most influential factors affect-ing aircrash probability. All pilots, (U. S. Air Carrier, U. S. General Aviation, and U. S. Military) must meet a minimum standard of performance. An increase in a particular pilot's experience over this minimum standard (pro-vided he remain within the same flight category) will not significantly affect his ability to fly safely. (15-28) Weather conditions and time of day do, to some degree, affect aircraft safety.

(21-2S,44,45)

However, these two factors do not affect safety as significantly as flight category or flight mode.

The effect of air traffic density on aircrash probability Js most influential near airports and is quantitatively considered when estimating the aircraft accident rate during the landing and takeoff mode of flight. Aircraft accident rate cannot be documented as a strong function of aircraft type. (For example, even though the accident rate is different for a DC-10 and a Boeing 707 air-craft, these differences are mainly due to statistical variances rather than to one aircraft being "safer" than the other).

A. 1-4 Summary The probability of an aircraft crash per mile; (P ) is a strong function of I

the jth category of flight (e.g., U.S. General Aviation-Pleasure Only) and the kth mode of operation (e.g., landing mode) and a much less strong function of other parameters.

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TABLE A. 1-1 AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT STATISTICS AS A FUNCTION OF THE 'TH FLIGHT CATEGORY FLIGH Mean CATEGORY 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Value L U. S. Certified Route

& Su lemental Air Carriers 9 9 Aircraft Miles Flown (Miles) 2, 16x10 2. 49xl 0 9 2. 73x10 2. 68x10 9

2. 66x10 9

2. 62x10 9

2. 56xl0 9 6

Accident Rate (per 10 miles)

Class A (All Accidents) 0. 032 0. 028 .0. 023 0. 020 0. 018 0. 019 0. 023 Class B (Major Accidents) 0. 016 0. 014 0. 009 0. 008 0. 008 0. 008 0. 011 Class C (Fatal Accidents) 0. 006 0. 005 0. 003 0. 003 0. 003 0. 003 0. 004

!. I. 1 U. S. Certified Route Carriers Only 6

Accident Rate (per 10 miles)

Class A (All Accidents) 0. 032 0. 028 0. 023 0. 020 0. 018 0. 019 0. 023 Class B (Major Accidents) 0. 016 0.014 -

0,009 0. 008 0. 008 0. 008- 0. 011 Class C (Fatal Accidents) 0. 006 0. 005 0. 003 0. 003 0. 003 0. 003. 0. 004 L 2 U. S. Supplemental Air Carriers Only

'ccident Rate (per 10 6 miles)

Ill

'lass A Accidents) 0. 042 0. 079 0. 017 0. 065 0. 010 0. 022 0. 039 Class B (Major Accidents) 0. 025 0. 025 0. 060 0. 045 0. 005 0, 010 0. 028 Class C (Fatal Accidents) 0. 010 0. 009 0 0. 032 0 0 0. 009

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TABLE A. 1-1 (continued) (2)

AIRCRAF1 ACCIDENT STATISTICS AS A FUNCTION OF FLIGHT CATEGORY PLIGHT Mean CATEGOR 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Value II. U. S. General Aviation 9 9 9 9 9 Aircraft Miles Flown (miles) 3. 44xl0 9 3. 70xl0 3. 93xlO 3. 2lx10 3. 14xl0 NA 3. 48x10 6

Accident Rate (per 10 miles)

Class A (All Accidents) 1. 78 l. 34 l. 21 1. 47 1. 48 NA 1 46

~

0. 600 0. 650 0. 500 0. 500 0. 500 NA 0. 530 Class B (Major Accidents)

0. 175 0. 186 0. 164 0. 200 0. 211 NA 0. 187 Class C (Fatal Accidents)

IL 1 ', S. General Avfatfon-Instructional Only 6

Accident Rate (per 10 miles)

Class A (All Accidents) 1. 61 1. 08 0. 874 1. 08 0. 794 NA 1. 09 Class B (Major Accidents) 0. 300 0. 350 0. 300 0. 400 0. 300 NA 0. 330 Class C (Fatal Accidents) 0. 0636 0. 0707 0. 0593 0, 0800 0. 0614 NA 0.0669 II. 2 U. S. General Aviatfon-Business/Corporate Only 6

Accident Rate (per 10 miles)

Class A (All Accidents) 1. 38 0. 941 0. 709

0. 400

0. 250 493 0. 491

0. 250 NA NA

0. 803

0. 370 Class B (Major Accidents) 0. 500 0. 450 0.

Class C (Fatal Accidents) 0. 147 0. 131 0. 109 0. 0814 0. 0820 NA -0. 110 II. 3 U. S. General Aviation-Pleasure Only 6

Accident Rate (per 10 miles)

Class A (All Accidents) 2. 76 2. 20 2. 11 2. 18 2. 38 NA 2. 33 Class B (Major Accidents) 1. 00 0. 900 0. 900 0. 900 1. 00 NA 0. 940 Class C (Fatal Accidents) 0. 320 0. 369 0. 329 0. 322 0, 371 NA 0.342

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TABLE A. 1-1 (continued) (3)

FLIGHT Mean CATEGOR 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Value IL 4 U. S. General Aviation-Aerial Application Only Aircraft Miles Flown (miles)

Accident Rate (per 10 6 miles)

Class A (All Accidents) 2. 56 2. 05 l. 95 l. 71 2. 00 NA 2. 05 Class B (Major Accidents) 0. 900 0. 800 0. 700 0. 750 0. 800 NA 0. 790 Class C (Fatal Accidents) 0. 266 0. 217 0. 175 0. 193 0. 203 NA 0. 211 II. 5 U. S. General Aviation - Air Taxi Aircraft Miles Flown (miles)

Accident Rate (per 10 6 miles)

Class A (All Accidents) 0. 946 0. 629 0. 657 0. 547 0. 514 NA 0. 659 Class B (Major Accidents) 0. 400 0. 300 0. 300 0. 300 0. 300 NA 0. 320 Class C (Fatal Accidents) 0. 134 0. 160 0. 0929 0. 109 0. 111 NA 0. 121 III. Milita Non-Combat Missions

• 4*

Approximate Accident Rate (per 106 miles)

Class A (All Accidents) 0.115 Glass B (Major Accidents) 0.055 Class 'C (Fatal Accidents) 0.020

• Based on U. S. crash statistics. Local crash statistics have been examined but not used due to the relatively small number of aircraft crashes in the local regions (f. e.,

the limited number of local crashes do not provide a sufficient data base).

• • Data not available as of start of this study.

• • • Postulated to be equal to 5 times the U.S. Air Carrier rate.

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TABLE A, 1-2 AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT STATISTICS AS A FUNCTION OF BOTH THE TH FLIGHT CATEGORY AND THE kTH MODE OF OPERATION MODE OF FLIGHT I II III IV V VI VII OPERATION Climb Descent Landing CATEGOR i Static Taxi Takeoff Inf light k=1 k 3***

U. S. Certified Route &

Su lemental Air Carriers Class B Accident (Major Accident)

Rate per mode per 10 miles (Averaged 1967-1972) . 0.116 0. 00519 0. 450 Class B Accident Rate Averaged For All Modes Per 106 Miles

0. 011 I. 1 U. S. Certified Route Carriers Only Class B Accident (Ma/or Accident)

Rate per mode per 10 miles (Averaged 1967-1972) 0.126 0,00519 0. 450 Class B Accident Rate Averaged For All Modes Per 106 Miles

0. 011

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~O TABLE A. 1-2 (cont'd) (2)

I II III IV V VI VII FLIGHT CATEGOR  % Static, Taxi Takeoff Climb Inflight Descent Landing k=1* 1h'**

I. 2 U. S. Supplemental Route k=3 Carriers Only Class B Accident (Major Accident)

Rate per mode per 10 miles (Averaged 1967-1972) 0.293 0.0132 l. 15 Class B Accident Rate Averaged For All Modes For 106 Miles

= 0. 028 II U. S. General Aviation Class B Accident (Major Accidents)

Rate per mode per 10 miles (Averaged 1967-1972) 2.44 0. 318 2.44 Class B Accident Rate Averaged For All Modes Per 10 Miles

= 0. 530

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0 TABLE A. 1-2 (cont'd) (3)

O I II III VI VII FLIGHT CATEGORY Q Static Taxi Takeoff Landing k=1* 2** k=3 II. 1 U. S. General Aviation-Ins tructiona1 Only Class B Accident (Major Accident)

Rate per mode per 10 miles (Averaged 1967-1972) 1.53 0.198 1.01 Class B Accident Rate Averaged For All Modes Per 106 Miles 0.330 II. 2 U. S. General Aviation- Business I and Corporate Only

' Class B Accident (Major Accident)

Rate per mode per 10 miles averaged 1967-1972) 1.71 0.222 1 ~ 21 Class 8 Accident Rate For All Modes Per 106 Miles

= 0. 370

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~O TABLE A. 1-2 (cont'd) (4) 0 I II III IV V VI VII PLIGHT CATEGORY + Static Taxi . Takeoff - Climb Inflight Descent Landing k=1* k=2** k=3 II. 3 U. S. General Aviation-Pleasure Only Class B Accident (Major Accident)

Rate per mode per 10 miles (Averaged 1967-1972) 4.23 0. 564 6.35 Class B Accident Rate For All Modes Per 10 Miles

= 0. 940 II. 4 U. S. General Aviation-Aerial Application Only I

CO Class B Accident (Major I

Accident)

Rate per mode per 106 miles (Averaged 1967-1972) 2. 37 0. 474 1.74 Class B Accident Rate For All Modes Per 10 Miles

= 0. 790

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0 I TABLE A. 1-2 (cont'd). (5)

I II III IV V VI VII FLIGHT CATEGOR II. 5 U. S. General Aviation-Static Taxi Takeoff k=1*

Climb Inflight k=2 Descent

~r Landing k=3 Air Taxi Only Class B Accident (Major

, Accident)

Rate per mode per 10 miles (Averaged 1967-1972) 1.47 0.192 1.23 Class B Accident Rate For All Modes Per 10 Miles

0. 320

. Class B Accident (Major Accident)

Rate per mode per 10 miles (Averaged 1967-1972)

Assumed equal to U. S. Air 0 ~ 580 0.0260'.25 Carrier's rate per mode Class -B Accident Rate For All Modes Per 106 Miles 0.055 Within 5 miles after takeoff.

Includes the sum of climb, inflight, and descent submodes hereafter labelled as inflight mode.

Greater than 5 miles from airport of operation.

Within 5 mQes of touchdown.

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APPENDIX A. 2 EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA A In principle, for a given plant configuration, one can estimate an effective plant area, (the effective plant area is defined as the ground surface area into which, without the plant, an aircraft would hit and cause, with the plant, a strike into the plant),(41) once the aircraft dimensions; approach and angle from vertical; and skid length upon impact are known. 'irection The effective plant area is the sum of the true plant ~area (with horizontal dimensions modified to include aircraft width); the shadow area, (closely correlated to the vertical angle of approach and building height); and the aircraft skid ~area (in front of the plant).

A. 2-1 True Plant Area The true plant area is the total amount of land occupied by the plant, (i. e.,

it is the "base area" of the plant). For example, a cylindrical building of radius r, (postulated to have been impacted by an aircraft of point dimension),

has a true plant area of A where:

p 2

A =77r (A.. 2-1) p A. 2-2 Shadow Area The shadow area depends on both the building height and on the assumed angle of approach', (a is the angle that the aircraft makes with the horizon at the postulated impact point) . This shadow area (not including the true plant area), is the area obtained by a cylindrical projection following the anglea. In other words, it is the shadow cast by the building due to a projected angle of a. The sum of the true plant area, A, and the shadow area, s p

A,'s defined, for the purpose of.

this study, as the virtual surface (or virtual area of the plant) . (31)

A =A +A (A.2-2) v s p

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For a PWR building of diameter D=2r and height H, and fixed value of Q upper hemispherical dome, the P'NR building virtual area is approximated: (31)

En equation (A.2-3), virtual surface determination is estimated assuming that the aircraft is a physical point. Aircraft dimensions are not negligible with respect to building dimensions. Building dimensions can be artifically in-creased to account for aircraft dimensions by adding a distance "d" (where d=one half of aircraft wing span) to the building dimensions. The PWR building virtual surface is then increased to:

{~D+ d {3+'~2) {D+ dj {~ D+d) f Since skid area is generally considerably larger than virtual area, (especially for faster aircraft), the total effective plant area is much more sensitive to skid distance than it is to angle of impact, Q. It 0 0 can be shown that even forQ as small as 10 to 15, the total effective plant areas given in Table A.2-2 are still valid. Furthermore, the effective plant areas given in Table A. 2-2 are larger than the effective plant areas estimated in several previous reactor/postulated aircraft (29,30,32-35,

' ' 38,42) and in part are approximately equal impact. studies to the effective plant areas estimated in a study by Cornell. (37, aS)

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There is a similar analysis for non-cylindrical buildings. (44,45) For a rectangular building whose base dimensions are a and b and whose height is z, the virtual area of the building is az + ab A

v tan Q (A.2-S) whose dimension is b. (44, aS) 'or for an aircraft of zero dimension travelling parallel to the site of the building an aircraft of width 2d travelling in an arbitrary direction, the maximum virtual area is 2+b2 1/2 ~2d A (max)- = +a(b + 2d) (A. 2-6) v .

tan Q where (a 2

+ b 2 ) 1/2 is equal to the maximum building diameter seen by the approaching aircraft and where b<a and b + 2d-) a.

Table A. 2-1 lists the building dimensions of the three containment buildings, the three fuel buildings, and the three radwaste buildings. The table also lists the values of d for various aircraft.

The total virtual surface for all three reactor units is less than three times the virtual surface for a single reactor unit because of the mutual shadowing effect of each of the reactor units, (i. e., an aircraft would be less likely to impact a unit that was "shadowed" or "shielded" by another unit immedi-ately in front of it). The assumption that the total virtual surface for all three reactor units is three times the virtual surface of a single unit is conservative (i. e., it will "overestimate" the true virtual surface).

• For the purpose of this.study, a single PVNGS unit is defined as a single containment building, a single fuel building, plus a single radwas te building.

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A.2-3 Skid Area If an aircraft were postulated to impact the land immediately in front of a structure, it is conceivable that the aircraft might skid into that structure.

Depending on aircraft weight, size and its horizontal component of velocity, the aircraft can skid up to approximately aircraft on a very smooth terrain). (37,41) 'or 1 mile, (for a high velocity military a high velocity military air-craft, the skid length is typically 0.6 miles. For a U.S. Air Carrier the typical skid length may be 0.3 miles and for a U.S. General Aviation, the skid length is typically 0.06 miles. (22-27,37,41)

Insight into the phenomenon of skidding may be gained by considering the motion of an aircraft on the ground as the linear motion of a body with an initial horizontal velocity V0 (mph) and a uniform deceleration equal to a multiple K of gravity. The simplest model leads,to a skid distance of

-6 Vo Xm = (6. 3 x 10 ) (

o ) miles. Q.2-7)

The value of K is directly proportional to the amount of friction between the skidding aircraft and the terrain. Typical values of K may be estimated to (37,41,44) vary between 2.5 and 5.

The maximum skid area, A, is defined as the product of the sum of the of the impacting aircraft and the building postulated to be impacted m'idths and the skid distance, then A = (2d + D) (X ) (A.2-8) m m 2 1/2 D (a2 + b2)

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A ~ 2-4 Total Effective Plant Area The total effective plant area, AE(total) for the three containment buildings, (viz., C1, C2 and C ); plus the three radwaste buildings, (viz., Rl, R, and 1

R ); plus the three fuel buildings, (viz., F, -F, and F ), can be estimated the sum of the virtual areas and the skid areas for each of the nine structures:

's A (total)=(3) Av (C) + A (R)+A (F)L E 1 v 1 v 1)

+3~A

~m Cl1

+A Rl +A F )I m 1 m lf (A. 2-7)

In other words, it is assumed that for all nine structures both the virtual and the skid areas are cumulative (i.e., 'no credit is taken for shadowing) ~

Table A. 2-2 lists the total effective plant area, A (total) as a function of the type of aircraft postulated to impact. The total effective plant area (for three con-tainment buildings, three fuel buildings, and three radwaste buildings), is less than or equal to 0. 05 square miles if a general aviation aircraft is postu-lated to impact. If a larger, faster DC-10 or F-104 Starfighter were postulated to impact, then the rotal effective plant area could be increased to as much Rev'.

as 0.2 to 0 3 square miles respectively.

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The calculation of total effective plant area in this report is based on con-servative formulations and.is generally larger than the effective plant area (29, 30, 32-35, 38, 42) calculated in previous studies, for other reactor units, (37, 41) and, in part, is comparable to the effective plant area used by Cornell.

• Where A

(R1)

(Cl it is A (R)

=.A (C2 A R 'l assumed that Av (C 1 )='Av (C 2 ) =Av (C 3'

=A (C3); A A

(Rl =A F

(R )

A

=A F

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(R );

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~ 'UILDINGAND AIRCRAFT DIMENSIONS Buildin'l'ircraft T e Di&ensions

1. Three'ontainment buildkngs.

• 1. H < 200 ft., D < 175 ft.

2, Three fuel buildin'gy. 2. L = 120 ft., W = 86 ft., H = 103 ft.

3. Three radwaste buildings. 3. L~182ft., W= 98ft., H= 60ft.

4. DC-10 Aircraft 4. d<81 ft.

5. Typical general aviation aircraft. 5. d < 20 ft."')

6. Luke AFB 7et Aircraft (including 6. d < 30 ft.

F104 Starfighter)

• Please refer to Figure 3.1-9 of the PVNGS ER for relative locations of the buildings.

Building dimensions are taken from Section 3. l. 3. of the PVNGS ER and Section 1.2 of the PVNGS PSAR.

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Table A.2-2 TOTAL EFFECTlVE PLANT AREA Aircraft That Has 'Been Postulated to Impact General F-104 Starfighter DC-10 Aviation et Total Effective Plant area 2 2 three PVNGS units* 0.05mi 2 0.3 mi 0.2 mi

• For the purpose of this study the estimate of A is based on the following:

E (1) Each of the three PVNGS units consists of one containment structure, one fuel building, and one radwaste building (i.e., a total of 9 structures for 3 PVNGS units).

(2) The total effective target area is. the sum of the effective target areas of each of the nine structures, (i.e., no credit

~

has been given to shielding or shadowing of structures) . Rev.

(3) The effective target area of each structures is equal to the sum of the true target area, the shadow area, and the skid areas associated with the structure and th'e aircraft postulated to impact.

(4) Target areas are valid for ai'rcraft travelling at maximum speed.

(5) The angle of impact, a, is greater than or equal to 15 relative to a horizontal plane.

(6)

Maximum"building dimensions are used (e.g., a rectangular building of sides a and b is conservatively assumed to have an equivalent true plant area equal to a circular building of diameter

(

2 2)1/2 max (7) The total effective target area includes aircraft width.

Revision 1 7/25/75

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APPENDIX '.. 3 FORMULATION OF AIRCRAFT CRASH PROBABILITY PER EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA lated from Cornell's Best-Estimate Model. 'he In this section the aircraft crash probability per effective plant area is formu-(37, 41) Best-Estimate model uses a Gaussian shaped probability distribution to estimate the postulated aircraft impact location orthonormal to the intended flight path at the point at which difficulty originated.

All of the intended aircraft paths, (Luke AFB to Gila Bend Gunnery Range, Airway V-l6, Airway V-94 are approximately straight for a sufficient (41) distance either side of the PVNGS. In the special case of the straight path, the probability that aircraft will impact a particular point diminishes with the projected (orthonormal) distance, (x ), from the location on the p

path at which the trouble began (see Figure A.3-1) .

For any impact distribution, f(x), the probability that a given impact is in a strip of width Ah, located at a distance x and parallel to the intended p

flight path is~h~f(x ). Postulating that there is such a hit (and assuming p

that the intended path is straight, a sufficient distance either side of the plant), there is no information provided about the 'longitudinal location of the hit or the point of origin of the accident. Therefore, the event that the postulated impact point lies in anyperpendicular strip of width AL (see Figure A.3-1) is probabilistically independent of the event that the point lies in the Ah strip. As a consequence, the probability of the joint occurrence of the two events along flight path i, (i. e., a PVNGS impact due to an air-craft along flight path i), is the product of their probabilities or

[Ah]~f(x )~[P~AL]where P is the crash probability per mile.

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For an aircraft in the jth category of flight and.in the kth mode of operation, the impact distribution function. is f 1 (x) and the crash probability'per mile is P k. The probability, P, that any aircraft travelling along flight path I t

impact a specified target is I'ill p= gg Q,h~f k (x)) ~ (P j> k+bL) (A.3-1) j, k The total probability per year that any aircraft in any of the i flight paths, in any of the j flight categories, and in any of the k modes of operation will impact the PVNGS is Pttot where:

tot =EX/

ijk (Nii3k e(A E

k

)'(x))

jk ~ P jk . (A.3-2) where N = The number of operations per year in flight path i; of category j; i, j, k and in mode of flight k (see Table III. 4-1)

A = LLjk~~h jk = The effective plant area for an aircraft of flight E.

category j and mode of flight k (see Appendix A. 2)

P. = The probability per mile that an aircraft in flight category j and mode j,k of flight k will crash,(see Table A. 1-2)

f. (x) = The distribution of impacts, orthonormal,to the intended flight path j,k (discussed below).

For fj,k (x) there is, unfortunately, almost no data, 'ecause (37, 41) it is very difficult to establish the exact location and distance of the plane when the trouble leading to the crash originated. The function f. k(x) is anticipated to j,k I

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be symmetrical and decay away from the origin (i.e., the location on the intended flight path where the trouble first began). The simplest such distribution, and the one "recommended" by information theory (37,41-43) concepts, is the exponential distribution:

fj,k(x) =1/2 yexp (-y I x ) I x 00 Q..3 3)

The mean o'f theabsolute value of x is 1/y. Based on investigations of many (ls-4s) the best subjective esti-aircraft accidents and on previous studies, mate of y is

-1 yj=s 1 mile (Military Aircra ft)

-1 yj=3,4,5,7 2 mile (U.S. General Aviation other than Aerial Application)

-1 yj=6 1 mile (U.S. General Aviation-Aerial Application only)

-1 yj=l, 2 l. 6 mile (U.S. Air Carrier) Rev. 1 Re vis ion 1 7/25/7S

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Plant Intended Flight Path AL Figure A. 3-1: Straight Line Flight Path Near PVNQS

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APPENDIX A. 4 ESTIMATE OF THE AIRCRAFT CRASH PROBABILITY PER EFFECTIVE PLANT AREA The probability per year that an aircraft will impact the PVNGS can be esti-mated by summing the probabilities that an aircraft.

1. traveling from Luke AFB to Gila Bend Gunnery Range;

2. traveling along V-16;

3. traveling along V-94; will impact the PVNGS.

A. 4-1 Estimate of the probability per year that an aircraft traveling between Luke AFB and Gila Bend Gunner Ran e will im act PVNGS.

There are no more than about N =160 flights each way per day, five days

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',k per week or less than j,k=84, 000 operations per year. They are military flights (j=8). They are traveling in the inflight mode of operation while in the vicinity of PVNGS (k=2).

The flight path (i=1) is approximately straight and passes.no closer than 14 miles ESE of PVNGS.

The effective plant area for PVNGS/F-104 Starfighter is less than or equal to 2

0.30 mi Rev. 1 The Class B crash probability per mile of flight for U. S. Military flights (or

-8 non-combat missions) in the inflight mode is P j=8, k=2 (B) ~ 2 60 x 10

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Revision 1 7/2 5/75

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A. 4-3 Estimate of the robabili er ear that an aircraft travellin alon V-94 will im act PVNGS.

per year along V-94. Ther'e are approx-There are N ],k-< 100, 000 operations imately 1/3 U. S. Air Carrier (j=2) and approximately 2/3 U. S. General Aviation (k=3, 4, 5, 6, 7).

The. flight path is approximately straight and passes no closer than 20 mlles southwest of the Site. The effective plant areas and Class B crash probabQities are the same as in Section A.4-2.

Then:

P 3(B) ( I(1/3) (100, 000) (6. 2 x 10 ) (0. 20) (1/2) (1. 6) e Rev. 1

+ (2/3) (100, 000) (3. 2 x 10 ) (0. 05) (e ) or P

tot i=3 (B) <<'10 -11 .Class B crashes per target area per year.

Revision 1 7/25/75

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APPENDIX B GLOSSARY B. l AERIAL APPLICATION Aerial application in agriculture consists of those activities that involve the discharge of materials from aircraft in flight and a miscellaneous collection of minor activities that do not require the distribution of any materials.

AIR CARRIER The term "air carrier", as used in this report, refers to aircraft operators certificated by the Federal Aviation Administration to transport by air, persons, property, and mail.

AIR CARRIER OPERATIONS, Revenue activities of the certificated route air carriers and the supplemental air carriers on scheduled and nonscheduled flights.

AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT An aircraft accident incident to flight is an aircraft accident which occurs between the time an engine or engines are started for the purpose of commencing flight until the aircraft comes to rest with all engines stopped for complete or partial deplaning or unloading. It excludes death or injuries to persons on board which result from illness, altercations, and other incidents not directly attributable to flight operations.

(a) Class A Accident (Total Accidents): 'lass A accidents include all aircraft accidents that involve injury or death to ground personnel and population, crew, or passengers. It also includes all aircraft accidents that involve any degree of property loss.

(b) Class B Accident (Major Accidents): Class B accidents are that subset of Class A aircraft accidents that could cause the aircraft to I

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crash or collide with any structure not at the airport. Class B accidents may or may not involve human injury or mortality but do involve property damage (including aircraft damage) not at the air-port. Class B accident data is used in this study to estimate the aircraft accident rate per mile. Most previous studies on the potential impact of an aircraft into a nuclear power plant use the less con-servative, (i. e., smaller), Class C accident data for this estimate.

(c) Class C Accident (Fatal Accidents): Class C accidents are that sub-set of Class A accident which cause- one or more human fatalities.

AIRCRAFT MILES or PLANE MILES The miles (computed in airport-to-airport distances) for each inter-airport hop actually completed, whether or not performed in accordance with the scheduled pattern. For this purpose, operation to a flag stop is a hop com-pleted even though a landing is not actually made.

AIRCRAFT TYPE A term used in grouping aircraft by basic configuration . fixed-wing, rotor-craft, glider, dirigible and balloon; etc.

AIRMAN CERTIFICATE A document issued by the Administrator of Federal Aviation Administration-certifying that he has found the holder to comply with the regulations governing the capacity in which the certificate authorizes the holder to act as an airman in connection with aircraft.

AIRPORT (AIRSTRIP, AIRFIELD, RUNWAY, LANDING STRIP)

An area of land or water that is used or intended to be used for the landing and takeoff of aircraft, and includes its buildings and facilities, if any.

AIRPORT TRAFFIC Aircraft operating in the 'air or on an airport surface exclusive of loading ramps and parking areas.

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AIRPORT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE traffic control service provided by an airport traffic. control tower for air-

'ir craft operating on the movement area and in the vicinity of an airport.

AIRPORT TRAFFIC CONTROL TOWER (TOWER)

A facility operated by FAA to promote the safe, orderly, and expeditious flow of air traffic at the airport.

AIRPORT TYPE General Use Airports serving as regular, alternate, or provisional stops for scheduled and large irregular air carriers; non-air-carrier airports offering a minimum of services such as fuel and regular attendants during normal working hours; and airports operating seasonally which qualify under above definition.

Limited Use Airports available to public but not equipped to offer minimum services.

Restricted Use Use by general public prohibited except in case of forced landing or by previous arrangement.

AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTER (GENTER or ARTCC)

A facility established to provide air traffic control service to IFR flights operating within controlled airspace, principally during the enroute phase of flight.

AIR TAXI Any use of an aircraft by the holder of an Air Taxi Operating Certificate which is authorized by that certificate.

AIR TRAFFIC Aircraft in operation anywhere in the airspace and on that area of an airport normally used for the movement of aircraft.

AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL A service operated by appropriate authority to promote the safe, orderly, and expeditious flow of air traffic.

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AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL FACILITY (FACILITY)

A facility providing air traffic control service.

AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE (CONTROL)

A service provided for the purpose of promoting the safe, orderly, and ex-peditious flow of air traffic, including airport, approach, and enroute air traffic control services.

AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIALIST (CONTROLLER)

A duly authorized person providing air traffic control service.

AIRWORTHINESS CERTIFICATE The issuance of this certificate by the Federal Aviation Administration signi-fies that an aircraft conforms to the type design (except for the experimental classification) and is in condition for safe operation.

BUSINESS TRANSPORTATION Any use of an aircraft not for compensation or hire by an individual for the purposes of transportation required by a business in which he is engaged.

Civil Aeronautics Board CERTIFICATED ROUTE AIR CARRIER One of a class of air carriers holding certificates of public convenience and necessity, issued by the Civil Aeronautics Board. These carriers are authorized to perform scheduled air transportation over specified routes and a limited amount of nonscheduled operations.

CERTIFICATED ROUTE-MILES OPERATED The shortest distance of travel, over authorized flight paths, by which all operated points on a carrier!s operation could be served.

COACH SERVICE (A.IR)

Transport service established for the carriage of passengers at fares and quality of service below that of first-class service, but higher than or superior to the level of economy service.

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COMMERCIAL OPERATOR One of a class of air carriers operating on a private for-hire basis, as dis-tinguished from a public or common air carrier, holding a commercial operator certificate, issued by the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration (pursuant to part 4S of the Civil Air Regulations) authorizing it to operate air-craft in air commerce for the transportation of goods or passengers. for com-pensation or hire.

CONTROLLED AIRSPACE Airspace within defined dimensions designated as continental control area, control zone, or transition area within which air traffic control is exercised.

CS/T Combined Station/Tower DEFENSE VISUAL PLIGHT RULES (DVFR)-

Visual Flight Rules applicable to military aircraft which plan to penetrate or to fly within an Air Defense Identification Zone.

DOMESTIC OPERATIONS In general, operations within the territory of the United States. These in-clude domestic operations of the certificated trunk carriers and the local ser-vice, helicopter, intra-Alaska, intra-Hawaii, and domestic all-cargo carriers.

Federal Aviation Administration FAS Flight Advisory Service FEDERAL AIRWAY A path through the navigable airspace of the United States, identified by an area on the. surface of the earth, designated or approved by the FAA Adminis-trator as suitable for interstate, overseas, or foreign commerce.

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FIXED-WING AIRCRAFT Aircraft having fixed wings to the airplane fuselage and outspread in flight,

i. e., non-rotating wings.

FLIGHT CATEGORY Flight categories are:

U. S. Certified Route and Afr Carriers I. 1 U. S. Certified Route Carriers Only.

I. 2 U. S. Certified Air Carriers Only; II. U. S. General Aviation II. 1 U. S. General Aviation-Instructional Only.

II. 2 U. S. General Aviatio'n-Business/Corporate Only.

IL 3 U. S. General Aviation- Pleasure Only IL 4 U. S. General Aviation-Aerial Application Only.

II. 5 U. S. General Aviation-Air Taxi Only.

III. U. S. (non-combat) Military FLIGHT MODES The flight modes are

1. Takeoff

2. Inf light

3. Landing FLIGHT SERVICE STATION (FSS)

A facility operated by the FAA to provide flight assistance service; GENERAL AVIATIONOPERATIONS All civil aircraft operations except those classified as air carriers (see also Aircraft Operation).

GENERAL AVIATIONAIRCRAFT All civil aircraft except those classified as air carriers.

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IFR Instrument Flight Rules IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED The number of IFR departures multiplied by two plus the number of IFR overs.

This definition assumes that the number of departures (acceptances, extensions, and originations of IFR flight plans), is equal to the number of landings (IFR flight plans closed).

IFR CONDITIONS Weather conditions .below the minimum prescribed for flight under VFR.

OPERATION An aircraft flight consisting of takeoff from an airport, inflight, and landing at an airport. A round trip flight consists of two operations.

SORTY A mission. A flight to a designated point or points and return to the point of origin. A sorty may consist of two or more flight operations.

SUPPLEMENTAL AIR CARRIER One of a class of air carrie'rs now holding temporary certificates of public convenience and necessity issued by the Civil Aeronautics Board, authorizing them to perform passenger and cargo charter services supplementing the scheduled service of the certificated route air carriers. In addition, they can perform on a limited or temporary basis, as authorized by the Civil Aeronautics Board, scheduled operations'ncluding the transportation of individually ticketed passengers and individually waybilled cargo.

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II I 'h h h TOTAL PLIGHT SERVICES The sum of flight plans originated, pilot briefs, and.flight condition messages, multiplied by two, plus the number. of aircraft contacted. No credit is allowed for airport advisories.

Visual Plight Rules VPR CONDITIONS Basic weather conditions prescribed for flight under VFR.

VPR PLIGHT Flight conducted in accordance with Visual Flight Rules.

B. 2 SYMBOLS A

Effective plant areas equals the sum of the true plant area, shadow area and skid area.

I A Skid area in front of plant.

m A True plant area.

p A Plant shadow area.

s A Plant. virtual area fs the sum of the true plant area and the shadow v area. 'I h A (total): Total Effective Plant Area for all three reactor units.

E A (C 1'), A (C 2'), A (C 3 ): Virtual area of containment building 41,(02, N3).

v v 1'(v (F 2' A (F ) ~ A ), A (F 3 ): Virtual area of fuel building gl, (N2, ~~3).

v ), A (R 2' A (R 1' ), A (Rh): 3 Vi'itual area of radwaste building gl, ($ 2, g3).

A (Cl) A (C2) A (C3): Skidareaassociated witha postulatedaircraft impact with containment building 41, (N2 N3)

A (Fl) A (F2), A (F ): Skid area associated with a postulated aircraft impact with fuel building 4"1 (42, 43) .

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1 m 2' A (R1) A (R2), A (R ~

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): Skid area associated with a postulated air-'

craft impact with radwaste building 51, (N2, g3)

One half the wing span of the aircraft postulated to impact.

D=2r Physical Diameter of building postulated to be'impacted.

Physical height of building postulated to be impacted.

Skid factor.

f k (x) .The. crash distribution'unction orthonormal to the intended flight path for an aircraft in the jth flight category and in the'th mode of operation.

Probability per mile that an aircraft in the jth category and in the j,k kth mode-of operation will crash.

P Probability per year that an aircraft will crash at a designated target while travelling along flight path i.

tot The total probability per year that any aircraft, -in any mode of

,operation and along any flight path, will crash at a designated target.

X Maximum skid distance of an impacting aircraft.

m Subscript pertaining to the 1th straight line flight path.

Subscript pertaining to the jth flight category.

Subscript pertaining to the kth mode of flight.

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REFERENCES Telephone conversation on April 25, 1975 with Captain john B.

Alexander, United States Air Force, Luke Air Force Base, Arizona Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with Captain Mike Heenan, United States Air Force, Luke Air Force Base, Arizona.

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with Ms. Bobbie j. English, Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, D. C.

Telephone conversations on May 5 and May 7, 1975, with Mr. Gene Garcia, Chief Air Traffic Controller, Albuquerque Flight Traffic Center.

Telephone conversation on April 25, 1975 with Mr., Tom Kamman, Regional Planning Officer, Sky Harbor Service Center, Phoenix, Arizona.

Telephone conversations on May 1 and May 2, 1975, with Mr. L. LaFornara, Chief Planner, Western Region, FAA.

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with %r. Robert Strander, Assistant City Manager of Buckeye, Arizona.

Telephone conversation on May 5, 1975 with Mr. Robert Strander, Assistant-City Manager of Buckeye, Arizona..

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with Mr. j. Pierce, owner of Pierce Airport, Arizona.

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with Mr. George Hex, Manager, Phoenix-Litchfield Airport, Arizona.

Telephone conversation on April 29, 1975 with Major Robert Lake, United States Air Force, Williams AFB, Arizona,

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REFERENCES (cont'd)

12. Aeronautical Chart, 12th edition (effective to 19 June 1975),

available from the U. S. Department of Commerce or most Flight Control Centers.

13. Enroute High Altitude Aeronautical Chart, 12th edition, (effective to 19 June 1975), Phoenix Section, available from the U. S. Depart-ment of Commerce or most Flight Control Centers.

14. Enroute Low Altitude Aeronautical Chart, 12th edition, (effective to 19 June 1975), Phoenix Section, available from the U. S. Department of Commerce or most Flight Control Centers.

15.. "Summary of Aircraft Accidents within Five Miles of U. S; Navy and U. S. Marine Corps Airfields, " FY-1964-1968 prepared by the Air-craft Analysis Division, Naval Safety Center, Norfolk, Virginia, Project Study Group 68-13.

16. "Summary of U. S. Air Force Aircraft Accidents in the Vicinity of Airfield 5 mile Zone, 1960-1964, " NR21-65, prepared by Directorate of Aerospace Safety Study, Norton Air Force Base.

17. "Military and Aircraft Forecast, Fiscal year 1975-1968, " prepared by U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, September 1974.

ministrationn.

18. "Military Aircraft Traffic Activity Report, Calendar Year ) 973, " pre-pared by U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Ad-

19. "MilitaryAircraft Activity Report for Calendar Year 1969, " U.S. Depart-ment of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

20. "MilitaryAir Traffic Activity Report, Calendar Year 1971," prepared by Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

21. "Aircraft Accident Report, Scandanavian Airlines System, McDonald Douglas DC-8-62, LN-MOO in Santa Monica Bay near Los Angeles California, January 13, 1969, " Report NTSD-AAR-70-14; U. S. De-partment of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

22. "Aircraft Accident Report, Trans-Caribbean Airways, Inc., -Boeing 727-200, N8790R, Harry S. Truman Airport, Charlotte Amelie, Saint Thomas Virgin Islands, December 28, 1970, " Report NTSD-AAR-72-8 U. S. Dep'artment of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

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REFERENCES (cont'd)

23. "Special Study Mid-Air Collisions 'in U. S. Civil Aviation, 1969-1970, Report No. NTSD-AAS-72-6, " U. S.. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

24. "A Study of Air Carrier Accidents, 1964-1969, Report No. NTSD-AAS-7~2-5 " U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Adminis-tration.

25. "Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data U. S. Air Carrier Operations, Calendar Year 1969, " Report No; ARC-71-1'. S. Department of-Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

26. "Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data, U. S. General Aviation, Calendar Year 1971, ",'eport No. NTSD-ARG-74-2 U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration.

27. "Annual Review of Aircraft Ac'cident Data U. S. Air Carrier Operations, 1970-'1972," Report No.,NTSD-ARC-74-1 U.S. Depa'rtment of Trans-portation, Federal Aviation Administration.

28. "FAA Statistical Handbook of Aviation, 1970 Edition, " Stock Number 5007-0166, U. S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Ad-ministration.

29. Eisenhut, Darrell, G., "A Review Testimony by the Division of Reactor Licensing, U. S. Atomic Energy Commission to the Long Is-land Lighting Company for the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant Station, "

Unit 1, April 2, 1971.

30. Eisenhut, Darrell G., "Addendum to the Review. Testimony by the Division of Reactor Licensing USAEC to Long Island Lighting Company for the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant Station," Unit'1, May 3, 1971.

31 Cravero, M., Lucenet, G.,- "Evaluation of the Probability of An Aircraft Crash on a Nuclear Power Plant, " Departement Etudes 'et Wssais Thermiques, 24, Boujevard de la Liberation, 93-Saint-Denis, France, Internal memo, April 1973.

32. "Probability of an Airplane Strike, " Appendix D and Appendix E, USAEC 5-Docket 289, February 23, 1968.

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REFERENCES (cont'd)

33. Shoreham Nuclear Power Station, Amendment 3,.USAEC Docket,150-322, February 5, 1969, Long Island Lighting Company.

34. Eisenhut, Darrell G., "Reactor Siting in the Vicinity of Airfields, "

presented at the ANS 19th Annual Meeting, Chicago, Illinois, June 10-15, '1973.

35. "Zion Station Amendment, " USAEC 18-Docket 50-295, December 1971.

36. Beattie, J. R., "Review of Hazards and Some Thoughts of Safety Siting, " BNES Symposium Safety and Siting, London, March 1969.

37. "Comparison of Dr. Cornell's final report on Naval Aircraft Accident Risks at the Carty Site with PGE-2001, Evaluation of the Aircraft .

Hazards at the Boardman Nuclear Plant Site, " submitted upon re-quest by the Nuclear and Thermal Energy Council, by the Portland General .Electric Company, june 1973.

38.,Eisenhut, Darrell G., "Testimony to the Atomic Energy Commission on the Zion-Waukeegan Airport Interraction. "

39.,Proctor, J., "Structural Effects of Aircraft Impact at the Zion Nuclear Power Station, Unit 1 and Unit 2, " Docket Nos. 50-295, 50-304, July 31, 1972.

40. Hornyik, Karl., "Airplane Strike Probability Near a Flight Target, "

presented at the ANS 19th Annual Meetin, Chicago, Illinois, June 10-15, 1973.

41. Cornell, C.A., "Final Report to the Oregon Nuclear and Thermal Energy Council on Naval Aircraft Accident Risks at the Carty Site, ".

May 31, 1973.

42. Hornyik, Karl., and Grund, J. E., "The Evaluation of the Air Traffic Hazards at Nuclear Plants," Nuclear'echnolo Volume 23, July 1974.

43. Hornyik, Karl., Robinson, A. H., and Grund, J. E., "Evaluation of Aircraft Hazards at the Boardman Nuclear Plant Site, " Portland General Electric Report PGE-2001, May 1973.

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REFEREN CES'cont')

44 ~ Solomon, K.A., Erdmann, R.C.,'icks, T.E., Okrent, D., "Airplane Crash Risks to Ground Population," UCLA-ENG-7424, March 1974.

45. Solomon, K.A., Okrent> D., "Airplane Crash Risks," Hazard Pre-1, . t C

46. Buell, G.D., on the "Prediction and Optimality of Aircraft Maneuvers Associated with Approach and Landing, " UCLA-ENG-7126, June 1971.

47. Cravero, M., "Prise en Compte des Missiles Externes Lurs de la Conception des Centrales Nucleares, " F 329/73/024 Departement Etudes et Essais Thermiques, 24, Boulevard de la Liberation, 93 Saint-Denis, France, May 1973.

48. Cravero, M., an'd Lucenet, Q., "Prise en Compte des Missiles Externes Lurs de la Conception des Centrales'Nucleares Evaluation des Risques Engendres par le Trafic Aeriew," F 329/73/028, Departement Estudes et Essais Thermiques, 24, Boulevard de la Liberation, 93-Saint-Denis, France, May 1973.

49. "Airman's Information Manual, Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration," AIT-QEN-SAR-RAC-CLM1-AGA3, August, 1972.

50. U.S. Nucl'ear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan, Section 3.5.1.6 "Aircraft Hazards", June 1975.

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