ML18038A738

Upper Shelf Energy Uncertainty Analysis for Nine Mile Point Unit 1 Beltline Welds Final Rept

ML18038A738
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Site:	Nine Mile Point
Issue date:	03/17/1993
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MPM-USE-393215, NUDOCS 9303260006
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NMPCProject03-9425MPM-USE-393215 FINALREPORT.entitledUPPERSHELFENERGYUNCERTAINTY ANALYSISFORININEMILEPOINTUNITIBELTLINEWELDSMPMResearchdcConsuming l5pt,+4ii]j.rTH1$+4WTtfhII8SVNR7~AKK58mxiuvrmmmmmuavxcevMarch17,19939303260006 9303i9PDRADQCK05000220PPDR e'4kqlI0I TableofContents1.0Introduction

.......1.1WeldMetalDescription

..~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~42.0YieldStrengthModelDescription.................................

92.1Theoretical Basis.......92.2ReviewofEarlierApplication toNMP-1BeltlineWelds...........

103.03.23.33,43.5Uncertainty Estimation........................

3.1DatabaseAnalysis3.1.1AnalysisofOutliers3.1.2Summary.............,.........

USEEstimation Uncertainty

..............

YieldStrengthModelUpdate..............

Application ofUpdatedModeltoNMP-1WeldsTensile/USE Measurement Uncertainty

......3.5.1TensileUncertainty Analysis...~3.5.2USEUncertainty

............'......

3.5.3Summary.......................

16161718191920202021224.0SummaryandConclusions

................

445.0References

....................

45 Al'$4,

1.0 Introduction

Nuclearreactorpressurevesselmaterials mustbetestedandevaluated toensurethattheyaresafeintermsofbothbrittleandductilefractureundernormaloperation andduringdesignbasistransients.

Withregardtoductilefractureprotection, AppendixGto10CFR50prescribes ascreening criterion of50ft-lbs.Ifanybeltlinematerials areexpectedtoexhibitCharpyUpperShelfEnergy(USE)(T-Lorientation forplates)levelsbelow50ft-lbs,thenadditional analysesmustbeperformed toensurecontinued safeoperation.

TheNMP-1beltlinematerials wereevaluated todetermine whetheranymaterials wouldfallbelowthe50ft-Ibscreening criterion.

Theresultsoftheseevaluations aresummarized inReference

[MA93a]andwerepresented intheresponsetoNRCGenericLetter92-01.Asaresultoftheseevaluations, NMPCconcluded thatnoneofthebeltlineweldswouldfallbelowthe50ft-Ibscreening criterion priortoend-of-license(EOL)andthatanAppendixXanalysismustbeperformed forbeltlineplatesG-8-1andG-307-4.TheresultsoftheAppendixXanalysisforServiceLevelAandBloadingswerereportedinReference

[MA93a],andtheresultsoftheServiceLevelCandDloadinganalysiswerereportedinReference

[MA93b].FullCharpycurvesfortheNMP-1beltlineweldmaterials intheunirradiated condition arenotavailable.

Therefore, theReference

[OD86]yieldstrengthmodel(asdescribed inSection2.0)wasusedtoestimatetheunirradiated USElevelsfortheNMP-1beltlinewelds.Duringapresentation totheNRConSeptember 30,1992,concerning thelowUSEissueresolution, theNRCrequested thatNMPCaccurately characterize theuncertainty in.theyieldstrengthmodeltoensurethatthelevelofconservatism usedtocalculate theunirradiated USEforthebeltlineweldsissufficient.

TheNRCrequestwaslaterformalized intheReference

[NRC92]letter.InresponsetotheNRC'srequest,NMPChaspreparedthisreportwhichaccurately characterizes theyieldstrengthmodeluncertainty.

Basedonthisanalysis,-NMPC hasconcluded thatthepreviously estimated USEvaluesforthebeltlineweldsareconservative andthatnoneofthebeltlineweldswillfallbelowthe50ft-Ibscreening criterion priortoEOL.1.1WeldMetalDescription Thechemicalcomposition andmechanical properties oftheNMP-1weldsarereportedinReferences

[ST84],[MA91],and[MA92a].BasedontheReference

[ABB92]letter,NMPCnowbelievesthatonlyonewireheat/flux lotcombination wasusedinwelds2-564-A/C.

Theupdatedreactorvesselbeltlineweldinformation isgiveninTables1-1through1-3.Table1-4summarizes thesurveillance weldCharpydata.

0 WeldSeamTABLE1-1REACTORVESSELBELTLINEWELDINFORMATION NumberLocationWeldWireTypeandHeatNo.WeldFluxTypeandLotNo.DetailedWeldProcedure 2-564A/C2-564D/F3-564Surveillance CapsuleWeldLower-Intermediate ShellLongitudinal LowerShellLongitudinal SeamsLowerIntermediate toLowerShellGirthAllThreeCapsulesRACO3/86054E8018/HAD DE8018/JBG DRACO3/86054E8018/HAG DE8018/JBG DRACO3/1248E8018/DBDE E8018/IOG ERACO3/W5214ArcosB-5/4ESFN/AN/AArcosB-5/4ESFN/AN/AArcosB-5/4M2FN/AN/AArcosB-5/SG13F SAA-33-A(3)

MA-33-A(7)

MA-33-A(7)

SAA-33-A(3)

MA-33-A(7)

MA-33-A(7)

SAA-33-A(3)

MA-33-A(7)

MA-33-A(7)

SAA-33-A(3)

References

[CE90]and[ABB92]

0JYi TABLE1-2NMP-1BeltlineandSurveillance WeldBestEstimateChemistry IDENTIFICATION CHEMICALCOMPOSITION (WT.%)WeldSeam2-564A/C'eldSeam2-564D/F'eldSeam3-564'URVEILLANCE WELD':Cu0.220.220.220.18Ni0.20.20.20,070.0150.0200.0150.0200.0150.0200.0220.013'AverageofBattelle/Westinghouse data[MA91]'Erecommendation

[CE90]

Table1-3NMP-1BeltlineWeldTensileData'TeHeatNo.FluxLotNo.YieldStrengthUltimateTensileStrenthsiElonation%Reduction ARACO386054RAC03-1248Surveillance CapsuleWeldUnirradiated W5214Surveillance CapsuleWeldIrradiated'5214 4ESF4M2F5613F5G13F-75/0063,00065,00073,68090,00080,00084,00090,24027.527.527.523.2469.964.367.068.1'atatakenfrom[LE64],[ST84],and[CE90].Theunirradiated materialtestrecordsdonotindicatethetesttemperature.

Therefore, RTisassumed.'00-degree capsulefluence=4.78x10"n/cm';RTproperties

'n2inches"in1inch

Table1-4SummaryofCharpyImpactProperties forIrradiated WeldMetal.fromtheNMP-1300-Degree Surveillance Capsule'aterialW5212/5613F E>1.0MeVFluence,n/cm'.78x10"30ft-lbTransition Temperature,

'F50ft-lbTransition Temperature,

'F35-MilLateralExpansion Temperature,

'F-22UpperShelfEnergy,ft-lb110'atatakenfrom[ST84]and[MA90]

0t$IyfC<<S(l

2.0 YIeldStrengthModelDescription

~~2.1Theoretical BasisOdetteet,al.[OD86]havereportedempirical relationships betweenirradiation strengthening andembrittlement.

Inparticular, theseresearchers haveobservedacorrelation between30ft-IbindexedCharpyshift(ET,Q)andelevation inyieldstrength(do)(Figure2-1),andbetweenthefractional decreaseinUSE(f)anddo(Figure 2-2),Asdiscussed byOdetteet.al.,establishing correlations betweenCharpyparameters andmicrostructure-sensitive properties (suchasyieldstrength) isofinterestingainingdeeperunderstanding ofradiation damageimpactsonmechanical behavior.

Thecorrelations proposedinReference

[OD86]assumecontinuous hardening (haincreases continuously),

whichisconsistent withmicrostructural datareportedintheliterature.

WithregardtoUSEdecreases, Odetteet.al.state,"Detailsoftheinfluence ofirradiation ontheseprocesses (ductilefracture) arecomplexandnotwellunderstood...

webelievethattheoveralleffectofirradiation onC(Charpy V-notch)uppershelfductilefracturemayberelatedprimarily toreducedstrainhardening andflowlocalization leadingtolowerductility andtoincreased triaxialstressstateinC-sizedspecimens duetostrengthincreases."

RecentworkbyManahan[MA92b]onirradiation effectsonuppershelffracturetrendsandmechanisms producedresultswhichareconsistent withtheReference

[OD86]observations, andthisworkpointsoutthatnon-hardening mechanisms, suchaselementtransport tograinboundaries andpossiblytoparticleinterfaces, mayplayaroleintheductilefractureprocess,Ifsuchmechanisms areindeedactive,thenitisnotpossibletoentirelycharacterize theshelfdropusinghardening models.Nevertheless, thestrongempirical correlation betweentandAoreportedbyOdetteet.ai.canbeusedtoestimatetheunirradiated USEprovidedteuncertainty isadequately characterized.

Reference

[OD86]proposedthefollowing empirical correlation forplatesandweldsbasedonanalysisoftheLWRdatabase:

f=6.2x10'o,for0<ho<5.8ksif62x10BGy+002(68956Gy%0)'olGy>5.8ksiwhere,ho=increaseinyieldstrength(ksi)(2-1)(2-2)Therefore, usingthisexpression forf,itispossibletocalculate theunirradiated USEprovidedirradiated USEandhodataareavailable.

0I,0[

2.2ReviewofEarlierApplication toNMP-1BeltllneWeldsFullCharpycurvesfortheNMP-1beltlineweldswerenotmeasuredatthetimewhenthevesselwasfabricated.

However,Charpydataat10'FweremeasuredbyCombustion Engineering andthesedataaresummarized inReferences

[MA90]and[MA91].Aninnovative methodology

[MA85a]wasdeveloped todetermine theinitialRT>>forcaseswherethedatarequiredbytheASMECodearenotavailable.

ThisapproachwasappliedtotheNMP-1beltlinematerials andtheresultsaredescribed inReference

[MA90]andwerereportedinReference

[MA92a].Themethodology forRT>>,determination includesestimation oftheunirradiated USEincaseswherefullCharpycurvesarenotavailable.

Thismethodrequiresyieldstrengthchangeandtheuppershelfenergyfortheirradiated metal.ForNMP-1,thesurveillance welddataareavailable atafastfluenceof4.78x10"n/cm'.Theyieldstrengthmodeldescribed earlierwasusedtoestimatethesurveillance weldunirradiated USEusingtheirradiated USEasinput.Inparticular, USE'=(t(2-3)where,f=fractional changeinUSE=AUSEUSE'SE'unirradiated USE(ft-Ibs)USE'""=irradiated USE(ft-Ibs)AUSE=USE'-USE'""

(ft-Ibs)Asdescribed earlier,forher>5.8ksi,Equation(2-2)shouldbeusedforcalculation of"f".Theirradiated USEwasmeasuredat7.98EFPYandfoundtobe110ft-lbs.Usingthemeasuredyieldstrengthchangeof8.68ksi,theunirradiated USEforthesurveillance weldisestimated tobe128ft-lbs.Theirradiated CharpydataforthecapsuleweldmaterialwasanalyzedusingtheSAMMcFRACcode[McFRAC],

Thiscodeisbasedonanon-linear, leastsquares,regression analysisusingtheWeibullstatistic.

TheWeibullstatistic hasbeenshowntobethecorrectstatistic foranalysisoffracturedatabyconsidering themicrostructural mechanisms involvedinthefractureofferritic, pressurevesselsteels[MA85b].Theconfidence bandscalculated byMcFRACaremeasuresof'thegoodnessoffit'nddonotindicatetheengineering 95%statistical errorspread,Thisuncertainty mustbeanalyzedusingconventional statistical methods.However,theMcFRACconfidence intervals areusedtomeasureconfidence inthe10 It'4Ip.('I,tI fitofaparticular datasetaswellastheinherentscatterduetothefractureprocess.Theseerrorbandsmustbecalculated, particularly forsparsedatasets,becauseinmanycasestheabilitytofitsparsedatadrivestheuncertainty.

TheMcFRACanalysisfortheirradiated capsuleweldisshowninFigure2-3.UsingtheresultsoftheMcFRACfit,theconfidence intervalforenergymeasurement (2a~)atthe50ft-Iblevelwasestimated tobe13.5ft-lbs.Thisestimateisconsistent withtheuncertainty indetermination oftheUSEfortestsconducted ontheuppershelf.Theminimumunirradiated USEdataforthebeltlineweldsreportedinReference

[MA92a]isshowninTable2-1.Thesedataweredetermined assumingthattheCharpybehaviorofthesurveillance weldissimilartotheresponseforthebeltlinewelds.WeldW5214/5613F wasnotmadeusingthesamewireheatorfluxlotas'hebeltlinewelds.However,theweldmaterials weremanufactured bythesamesuppliers, theweldwiretypeandfluxtypearethesame(RACO¹3wire,ArcosB5flux),thesameprocedure wasused,andtheCuandNicontentisrepresentative ofthebeltlinewelds[CE90,MA91].Therefore, ithasbeenassumedthatthecapsuleweldmaterialissimilartothebeltlineweldsintermsofitsmechanical behaviorresponse.

AtthetimetheReference

[MA92a]analysiswasperformed, theresultsoftheuncertainty analysisreportedhereinwerenotavailable.

Therefore, engineering judgement wasappliedtoobtainreasonable yetconservative estimates ofthe.unirradiated USElevels.Toensureconservatism, themeasuredirradiated USEwasusedasanestimateoftheunirradiated surveillance weldUSE.Inestimating thebeltlineweldUSE,thisvaluewasdecreased toaccountforuncertainty intheyieldstrengthmodelestimate.

Inordertoestimatethebeltlineweldunirradiated metalUSElevels,themeasuredirradiated USEforthesurveillance weld(110ft-Ibs)wasreducedby2a,(13.5ft-Ibs)plusanadditional 6.5ft-Ibforconservatism.

Thislowerboundestimateof90ft-Ibswasconservatively assumedtorepresent theunirradiated USEofthebeltlinewelds.11 0'

Table2-1Estimated UpperShelfEnergyforNMP-1BeltlineWelds[MA92a]Materialwt.%cuMinimumUnirrad.USE(ft-Ib)Irradiation Decrement aUSE(%)12/16/91Irradiation Decrement AUSE(%)EOL(25efpy)'redicted USE12/16/91(ft-Ib)Predicted USEatEOL(25efpy)'ft-Ib)

W5214/5G13F 0.1886054B/4E5F0.221248/4M2F 0.22-100'0901720-2020232383.072.072.080.069.369.3'owerboundestimatebasedonirradiated valuemeasuredatafluenceof4.78x10"n/cm'Conservatively estimated usingdatain[MA90]and[MA91]'astfluenceof7.26x10"n/cm'tthepeak1/4Tposition'astfluenceof1.44x10"n/cm'tthepeak1/4Tposition'atafromReference

[CE90]'urveillance Weld12 CC('

300WELDPLATEEST.MEAS.UNCERTAINTY

~EST.MEAS.UNCERTAINTY OCIf~~~~~0~3500b~o>(MPa)Wa(MPa)13Figure2-1PlotsofTransition Temperature ShiftsIndexedat41J(Joules)VersusStaticYieldStressChangesfor(a)Weldand(b)PlateandForgings[OD86]

0.7ufXNAXOIDUSE'SEDg-Q~WELDoPLATEou~~&+~00e0~'00~~8o4o~0o<<pohe>(MPI)Figure2-2Fractional Decreases inCUpperShelfEnergyVersusYieldStressChanges[OD86]14 hg Ql125II-100CSV5~50O26CLA44Oag4/Qkiki~ggJk~p~//k300-TESTTEMPERATURE (F)NINEMILEPOINTUNITWELD52I4./5G13F(SURVEILLANCE WELD)-150IRRADIATED DATAWEIBULLFITTRANSITION WEIBULLFITUPPERSHELFHYPERBOLIC TANGENTFITCONFIDENCE LIMIT(95+)CONFIDENCE LIMIT(96%)CONFIDENCE LIMIT(86%)CONFIDENCE LIMIT(95%)UNIRRADIATED DATAUNIRRADIATED CHARPYCURVEFigure2-3CharpyImpactEnergyVersusTestTemperature forIrradiated WeldSpecimens fromtheNineMilePointUnit1300DegreeCapsule15

'14l()"f.+J((l,4

3.0 Uncertainty

Estimation Thebasicapproachtocharacterizing theuncertainty associated withestimating theunirradiated USEusingtheyieldstrengthmodeldescribed inSection2.0istoapplythemodeltoLWRdataforwhichtheunirradiated USEisknown,andthentodetermine theuncertainty byplottingthecalculated USEversusthemeasuredUSEanddetermining thetwosigmalimits,Thefollowing stepswerefollowed:

~ExtractwelddatafromtheLWRdatabaseforwhichtheunirradiated USE(USE'),irradiated USE(USE'""),

andchangeinyieldstrength(hGy)dataareavailable.

TheReference

[PREDB]databasewasused.~Calculate USE'singtheyieldstrengthmodel;~Calculate thetwosigmalimitsforUSE'calculated) vs.USE'measured)

Detailsrelatedtotheuncertainty evaluation areprovidedinSections3.1and3.2ofthisreportwhichfollow.Duringtheanalysis, itwasdiscovered thatthefunctional formoftheyieldstrengthmodelshouldbeupdated.Thedetailsconcerning modelupdatearedescribed inSection3.3.TheupdatedmodelwasappliedtotheNMP-1surveillance weld,andthesedataarepresented inSection3.4.Comparison oftheuncertainty inyield~~~~~~~strengthandUSEmeasurements withtheuncertainty intheyieldstrengthmodelispresented inSection3.5.3.1DatabaseAnalysisTheNRCprovidedthelatestversionofthePowerReactorEmbrittlement DataBase(PR-EDB)[PREDB]foruseintheweldUSEuncertainty evaluation.

TheCharpyshiftdatabase(SHFTPR,DBF)andthetensiledatabase(TENPR.DBF)fileswereanalyzedandreduced,subjecttothefollowing

criteria, toproducethefinalcombinedwelduncertainty analysisdataset:~Onlyweldrecordswereusedintheanalysis.

~Recordswereeliminated whichdonothavetheminimumdatarequiredtocalculate themodeluncertainty (USE;USE'"",anddo).~Recordswereeliminated incaseswherethereportedCharpyfluencewasnotwithin40%ofthereportedtensilefluence.~Recordswereeliminated iftheunirradiated tensiletesttemperature wasgreaterthan50degreesaboveorbelowtheirradiated tensiletesttemperature.

~Wheneverpossible, hadataat550'Fwereused.If550'Fdatawerenot16

'vailable, dataatthenexthighesttemperature wasused.Asdiscussed inReference

[OD86],temperature effectsondaaresmall.~Loweryieldstrengthdatawereusedtocalculate do~~Recordswereeliminated ifthecapsuleandheatidentification inthetensiledatabasedoesnotmatchthecapsuleandheatidentification intheCharpydatabaseforaparticular plant.T~Averagestressvalueswereusedtocalculate dowhenever resultsformorethanonetensiletestwereavailable atthetesttemperature,

material, andfluenceconditions ofinterest.

~Alldatabaseunitswereconverted toU.S.conventional units(ha=ksi,USE=ft-lbs).~Thefinaldatasetcontainsonlywelddataforcommercial BWRandPWRplantsirradiated between520'Fand590'F,~IftheCharpydatareportedinthePR-EDBindicates anincreaseintheUSEwithirradiation, andtheincreaseislargerthan15ft-Ibs(itwasassumedthattheUSEmeasurement uncertainty is+15ft-Ibsatthetwosigmalevel),thenthesedatawerenotincludedintheanalysis(seediscussion onoutlierswhichfollows).

Otherwise, thedUSEwassetequaltozeroforcaseswheretheUSEincreased bylessthan15ft-lbs.~IfthetensiledatareportedinthePR-EDBindicates adecreaseinyieldstrengthwithirradiation, andthedecreaseislargerthan5ksi(itwasassumedthattheyieldstrengthmeasurement uncertainty is+5ksi),thenthesedatawerenotincludedintheanalysis(seediscussion onoutlierswhichfollows).

Otherwise theb,owassetequaltozeroforcaseswheretheyieldstrengthdecreased bylessthan5ksi.Thereduceddatasetobtainedbyapplication ofthesecriteriaisshowninTable3-1.Thedatasetcontains145weldrecords,whichissignificantly largerthanthe32weldrecordsavailable atthetimetheyieldstrengthmodelwasoriginally developed.

3.1.1AnalysisofOutliersThedatarecordsforwhichtheyieldstrengthdecreased bymorethan5ksiand/ortheUSEincreased bymorethan15ft-Ibsaresummarized inTables3-2and3-3,respectively.

FortheCallawayplant,basedonthedatatrends,thereappearstobeanerrorintheunirradiated aat550'F(Table3-2).Therefore, 17

~ks'f1(tl0k,'IJC theRTodatawasusedtocalculate dointheuncertainty analysis.

ForOconee3(Table3-2),thereappearstobeanerrororanomalyforthedaat.550'FforCapsuleB.Thedatatrendssuggestanerrorintheirradiated ovalue.Therefore, forthiscapsule,theRTdewasusedintheuncertainty analysis.

Similarly, forVermontYankee,thereappearstobeanerrorintheyieldstrengthfortheirradiated specimentestedat543'F.Therefore, theRThawasusedintheuncertainty analysis.

ForDresden3(Table3-3),aninteresting USEversusfluencetrendwasobserved.

Forfluencesbelowabout1x10"n/cm',theUSEappearstoincreasebyastatistically significant amount,Abovethe1x10"n/cm'luence, theUSEdecreases asexpected, Therefore, thefirstdatacolumninTable3-3waseliminated fromtheuncertainty analysis.

TheVermontYankeeCapsule30D,whichwasirradiated to4.3x10"n/cm',showsasimilarbehaviortothatoftheDresdenCapsule6.Belowabout1x10"n/cm',theUSEappearstoincreaseslightly.

Table3-3alsolistsanoutlierfortheGarigliano plant.Inthiscase,astatistically significant USEincreaseandastatistically significant increaseinyield'strength atafluenceof7x10"n/cm'asreported.

Thisdatumisinconsistent withthedatatrendsoftheotherGarigliano

capsules, andtherefore, wasnotincluded'in theUSEuncertainty evaluation, AfterthePR-EDBwasassembled, OakRidgeNationalLab(ORNL),incooperation withtheElectricPowerResearchInstitute (EPRI),performed additional verification ofthedatabase.

However,notalldatacouldbeverifiedbythereactorvendors,andthePR-EDBcontainsalistofthereactors,

capsules, andfileswhichwerenotverified.

Noneofthepreviously discussed outlierswereonthePR-EDBunverified list.3.1.2SummaryAswithmostoutlieranalyses, thereisnotsufficient information available todrawfirmconclusions regarding thecauseoftheanomalies.

However,thedatainTable3-2suggestthatthefewcasesofdodecrease maybeduetodataerror.ForthethreecaseslistedinTable3-3whichshowastatistically significant USEincrease, twoofthese(Dresden3Capsule6andVermontYankee)occuratverylowfastfluences((1x10"n/cm').TheGarigliano datumappearstobeadataerrorsinceitisinconsistent withtheotherGarigliano capsuledata.Basedontheanalysesperformed, itisconcluded thattheyieldstrengthincreases continuously withneutronirradiation, inagreement withtheearlierobservations madebyOdetteet.al.[OD86].Withthepossibleexception oflow18 IS fluenceirradiation, theUSEdecreases withfluence,whichisalsoconsistent withthemodelreportedinReference

[OD86].N3.2USEEstimation Uncertainty Theyieldstrengthmodel(Section2.0)wasappliedtothereducedwelddatasetdescribed inSection3.1.TheresultsoftheanalysisareshowninTable3-1andinFigure3-1.TheSYSTAT[SYSTAT]codepackagewasusedtoperformalinearleastsquaresregression analysisonthemeasured(USE'~,)

versuspredicted (USE'~Qunirradiated USEdata.Thecalculated slope(Figure3-1)oftheregression modelis0.988witharesidualsquared(R')valueof0.986.Theregression analysisidentified D.C.CookUnit1CapsuleU(Case23),Garigliano Capsule114A(Case49),andMcGuire2CapsuleX(Case69)aspossibleoutliers.

Thetwosigmascatterbandwasdetermined tobe23.99ft-lbs.Thisisthebestestimateoftheuncertainty intheyieldstrengthmodelandcanbeusedasaconservative adjustment totheestimated USE'.InthecaseoftheNMP-1surveillance weld,theestimated USE'f128ft-Ib(Section2,2)maybereducedto104ft-Ibstoaccountfortheuncertainty intheUSEestimation model.ThisreducedUSE'stimate isconsistent withthe100ft-Ibobtainedusingengineering judgement (SeeTable2-1).3.3YieldStrengthModelUpdateAplotoftheReference

[OD86]modelalongwiththecurrentwelddatasetisshowninFigure3-2.Althoughthedatasetusedinthemid-1980s suggested apossiblenonlinear dependence ofthefractional.

decreaseinUSE(f)withincreaseinyieldstrength(ho),Figure3-2showsthatalineardependence ismore-appropriate.

AsshowninFigure3-2,the[OD86]modeltendstounderpredict theUSEforlowho(-<8ksi),

andtendstooverpredict athigherhalevels.Alinearleastsquaresregression wasperformed onthecurrentLWRwelddataset,TheresultsareshowninFigure3-3.Thelinearandnon-linear modelsarecomparedinFigure3-4.Theregression yieldedanR'alueof0.880.Thetwosigmascatterbandwasdetermined tobe0.182.Thistwosigmavalueislowerthanthescatterestimateof+0.2reportedin[OD86]forthenon-linear model.Therefore, basedontheanalysesperformed, ithasbeenconcluded thatthefractional decreaseinUSEdependslinearlyonhoforLWRweldmetals.Theproposedlinearfunctionis:f0015bay(3-1)19 II1IlI~',I1I where,f=fractional decreaseinUSEba=increaseinyieldstrength(ksi)3.4Application ofUpdatedModeltoNMP-1WeldsThelinearyieldstrengthmodelwasappliedtotheLWRwelddatasettoestimatetheuncertainty incalculating theunirradiated USEinasimilarmannerasdescribed inSection3,2forthenon-linear model.TheresultsareshowninTable3-4andFigure3-5.Thecalculated slopeoftheregression lineis0.979,whichisclosetounity.TheR'alueis0.986whichisidentical totheresultsobtainedfor'thenon-linear model.Theregression analysisidentified D.C,CookCapsuleU(Case23)andGangliano Capsule114A(Case49)aspossibleoutliers.

Thetwosigmascatterbandwasdetermined tobe23.69ft-lbs,whichisslightlylowerthanthe23.99ft-Ibsobtainedusingthenon-linear model.Overall,theuncertainty forthelinearandnon-linear modelsisapproximately thesame.Thisisbecausetheuncertainty duetomechanical behaviortestingislargeanddominates theimpactofthefunctional formoftheyieldstrengthmodel.ApplyingthelinearmodeltotheNMP-1surveillance weldresultsinanestimated unirradiated USEof126ft-lb.Thisestimateisslightlymore.conservative thanthatobtainedearlierusingthenon-linear model.Subtracting thetwosigmaestimateof24ft-Ibsyieldsalowerboundunirradiated USEof102ft-lbs.Asmentioned earlier,thisUSElevelisconsistent withearlierestimates basedonengineering judgement.

3.5Tensile/USE Measurement Uncertainty Acursoryexamination ofFigure3-3suggeststhatthescatterinhodatatakenfromtheLWRdatabaseissignificantly largerthantheexpecteduncertainty inyieldstrengthmeasurement, Foruniaxialtestingofsteel,anuncertainty ontheorderof+5ksiistypical.Therefore, alimitedinvestigation wasperformed toaddressthisquestion.

Theuncertainty foryieldstrengthmeasurement ofnuclearpressurevesselsteelswascharacterized andthesedataarepresented inSection3.5.1below.Asimilarstudywasperformed forUSEdetermination toseeiftheyieldstrengthmodeluncertainty isconsistent withthemechanical propertymeasurement uncertainty, andtheseresultsarepresented inSection3.5.2below.3.5.1TensileUncertainty AnalysisThePR-EDBdatabasefileTENPR.DBFwasusedtoidentifyplantsforwhichthreeormoretensiletestshadbeenperformed.

Theplants,alongwith20

,llJ'Lt-T meanloweryieldstrengthandtwosigmaestimates, areshownin'Table3-5.Theaveragetwosigmaestimateis3.2ksi.Mostofthedatawith3ormoreyieldstrengthmeasurements areforunirradiated material.

Mostofthesurveillance capsulescontain3tensilespecimens foreachcapsulematerial(base,weld,HAZ),andtheseareusuallytestedatroomtemperature (RT),550'F,andatanintermediate temperature.

Further,notallplantshavemultipleyieldstrengthdataintheunirradiated condition.

FormanyofthedatashowninFigure3-3,onlyoneunirradiated, odatumandoneirradiated adatumwereusedtocalculate dc>.Thecorrelation fordaversus fractional decreaseinUSEisshowninFigure3-6.ThetwosigmalimitfortheLWRwelddatais11.3ksi.Thistwosigmalimitissignificantly largerthanthemultiplespecimen(3ormoremeasurements) twosigmauncertainty asaresultofinsufficient numberoftestspecimens requiredtoaccurately characterize ho.3.5.2USEUncertainty Asmentioned inSection2.2,anuncertainty of13.5ft-IbswasusedintheNMP-1surveillance weldanalysis.

Thisestimatewasdetermined basedonthesurveillance capsuledata.InordertoobtainanestimateoftheUSEuncertainty intheLWRdatabase, tenplantswererandomlyselectedfromthePR-EDBdatabase.

Theplants,alongwithhyperbolic tangentfitstotheirwelddata,areshowninFigures3-7through3-16.Asshowninthefigures,thereisusually'ufficient dataavailable foraccuratedetermination oftheunirradiated USE.However,sinceonly8to16Charpyspecimens areavailable inmostsurveillance

capsules, dataforUSEcharacterization ontheuppershelfisgenerally limited,Inordertoestimatetheuncertainty inUSEmeasurement intheunirradiated condition, thedataforeachoftheplantswasfitusingalinearregression model,Theequationusedislistedbelow:USE=A,T+AwhereAiregression coefficients T=testtemperature.

Thefractureappearance datawereusedtoidentifyuppershelfpoints.Aftereachmodelregression wascompleted, themidpointofthetemperature rangeoverwhichtheUSEmeasurements weremadewascalculated.

Eachsetofdatawereshiftedupordownatthemidpointtemperature toyieldnormalized datadistributed arounda100ft-Ibmean.Thenormalized datawerefitusingEquation3-2,andtheresultsareshowninFigure3-17.Thetwosigmalimitfor21 4'l5'**If thenormalized datawascalculated tobe19.8ft-lbs.3.5.3SummaryThetwosigmalimitforUSEmeasurement wasestimated tobe19.8ft-Ibsforunirradiated weldmetal.Since,formostplants,theunirradiated USEisdetermined using9ormorespecimens, andtheirradiated USEisdetermined using3ormorespecimens, theuncertainty incalculating thefractional decreaseinUSE(f)isexpectedtobeontheorderoftheuncertainty inUSEmeasurement.

AsshowninFigure3-3,thisisthecaseforLWRweldmetalssincethetwosigmalimitfor"f"wasfoundtobe+0.18.Thetwosigmalimitincorrelating hcwithfractional decreaseinUSE(Figure3-6)(-11ksi)ismorethantwicetietwosigmalimitassociated withyieldstrengthmeasurement

(Ž3-5ksi).Thisisbelievedtobeduemainlytothefactthatthecurrentindustrypracticeinsurveillance testingistoperformonlyonetensiletestateachtemperature.

Inaddition, thereareonlyafewplantswhichhavebaselinetensiledatadetermined usingmultiplespecimens.

Inthefuture,forthoseplantswhichusetheyieldstrengthmodeltoestimatetheunirradiated USE,moreaccurateresultscanbeobtainedbyallocating morespecimens totestingatagiventemperature and/orthroughtheuseofminiature specimens.

22

'.CVII(f Teble3-1LWRWeldDataandNon-Linear YieldStrengthModelEstimates OftheUnlrradlated USE~PlanUnirradiated Irradiated USEUSE(Measured)

(Measured)

USE4~USEupsUSE~USECalculated MeasuredFractional Fractional USEUSE~Chane~ChaneUniiradiated USE(Calculated)

USE'cAiUSE'~MSE'cN~flub~4bCASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASE12345678910ll12131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536~3738394041424344454647484950ANO-1ANO-1ANO-1ANO-2AngraBeaverVal1BeaverVal1BeaverVal1BigRockBigRockBigRockBigRockCalCliffs1CalCliffs2Callaway1Callaway1Catawba1CrystalRiv3CrystalRiv3CrystalRiv3CrystalRiv3D.C.'Cook1D.C.Cook1DavisBesseDavisBesseDavisBesseDavis.Besse DavisBesseDiabloCan1DiabloCan2Dresden2Dresden3Dresden3Dresden3Dresden3Dresden'3Dresden3Dresden3DuaneArnoldParley1Farley1Parley1Farley2Farley2Farley2Ft.CalhounFt.CalhounGarigliano Garigliano Carigliano 73.00073.00073.000154.000171.000112.000112.000112.00095.00095.00095.00095.000160.000137F000112.000112.000128.00079.00079.00079.00079.000110.000110.00070.00070.00070.00072.00072.00098.000121.00071.00065.00065.00065.00065.00070.00070+00070.000101.000149.000149.000149.000144F000144.000144.000104.000104.000103'00103:400103.40045.00047.00058.000147F000155F00078.00083.000&8.00065F0007000057F00080+000119F000<05~00097.00010lo000123F00068.00064.00070.00063F00080.0009400057.00054.0006400062.00065.00087.0008500052.00045.00041F00042.00065.0005900064+00070~000101~000108.0001300000115.000144F000144F000132.00059~00065000079'0067'0060.00028.00026.00015.0007.00016.00034.00029F00024.00030.00025.00038.00015.00041.00032.00015.00011.0005.00011.00015.0009.00016.00030.00016.00013.00016.0006.00010.0007.00011.00036.00019.00020.00024.00023.0000.00011.0006.0000.0000.00041-00019.00034.0000.0000.00012.00045.00039.00023.80036~10043.40012.83012.8308.4303.1000.00019.90016.8001580017'0015.30012~1007.50012.20010.9008.0000.000430010.68010.4801.88010.68019.05022'5010.20010.500F50011~8005.50014.70016.6001760020.37025.17016.5700.40020.83013.2302'3000006.55012.2508.1501.3506.4505.35021.10022.10014.93036.41018.4900.2190.2190.1370.0190.0000.3210.27802640'940.2570.2070.1150'090.1860.1280.0000'270'820~1790~0120~1820'090.3570.173001790.0340.2020'340'4802760.2900'2703870'750F0020'33022500130.0000.0860.20901310.0080.0820'33033603490'510.516030203840.3560.2050.0450.0940.3040.2590.2140.3160.2630.4000.1580.2560.2340.13400980.0390.13901900.1140.2030.2730.1450.1860.2290.0860.1390.0970.1120.2980.2680.30803690.35400000.1570.0860.0000.0000.2750.1280.2280.0000.0000.0830.4330.3750.2300.3490.42057.6076016767.243149.847155+000114821115025119.58392.03594~18771.86990'94150.357129.028111177101~000126+41383.1577791870.85077'43115.836146.27668'6065773662537768067288115.67311733773'9966+85166.91957.94465'3088'3682.60670.922101000118.173164.428132'45145~161156.91813650588'0299871106.321139.19185.93715.39312.8335.7574'5316.000-2.821-3025-7.5832.9650.81323.1314.6069.6437.9720.82311.0001.587-4.1571.0828~150l.957-5.836-36.276l.0404.2273.747-5.6804.,712-17.6733.663-2.199-l.851-1.9197.056-0.130-18.436-12.606-0'220.00030.82715~42816.655-l.161-12.9187.49515.0984129-2.921-35.79117.46323

<<)$tl Table3-1LWRWeldDataandNon-Linear YieldStrengthModelEstimates oftheUnlrradlated USE(Continued)

~PlanUnirradiated Irradiated USEUSE(Measured)

(Measured)

USE'~USEMrsUSE'~-USE Calculated Fractional USE~ChanaUnirradiated MeasuredUSEFractional (Calculated)

USE.USE'~USE'~-USE'oAl Cbanlbe~db~lb51525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899CASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASE100Garigliano Garigliano Garigliano Garigliano GinnaGinnaGinnaHaddanNeckIndianPt.2IndianPt.3KewauneeKewauneeMaineYankeeMaineYankeeMaineYankeeMaineYankeeMcGuire1McGuire1McGuire2McGuire2Millstone 2Millstone 2NorthAnna1NorthAnna1NorthAnna2NorthAnna2Oconee1Oconee1Oconee1Oconee2Oconee2Oconee2Oconee3Oconee3Oconee3Palisades Palisades PrarieZsl1PrarieIsl1PrarieZsl1PrarieIsl2PrarieIsl2PrarieIsl2Pt.Beach1Pt.Beach1Pt.Beach1Pt.Beach2Pt.Beach2Pt.Beach2(tuadCity1103.400103.400103.400103.40080.00080.00080.000105.000118000120.000126.000126.000105.000105.000105.000105.000112F000112.000133.000133.000132.000132.00095.00095.000112.000115.00064.00064.00064.00067.00067.00068.00066.00066>>00066F000118F00011800079.00079.00079.000103.000103>>000103F00065.00065.00065.00065.00065.0006600072.00051.40083.900103.40073.80053.00051.00050.00083~00075.00068.000.78.00082.00057.00059>>00066F00050.00083~00075F000133.000133F00098.000108.000-95.00092F000112~00092F00052.00052.00055F00044.00047.00054.00049.00058.0004200052F00064F00079.00075.00079F00091.000100F00092.00054.00055.00051.00042.00047.00044.00049.00052~00019.5000.00029.60027.00029F00030.00022.0004300052.00048.00044F00048.00046F00039.00055.00029.000370000.0000.00034.00024F0000>>000F0000.00023F00012~00012.000F00023>>00020.00014F00017.0008.00024F00066.00054.00000004.0000.00012.0003.00011>>000ll>>00010.00014.00023.00018.00022F00023.000248900.0000.71023.75021.75022.85019.65016.7502580024.8002775023'5030.67023.72024.97036.17019.9001380010.9507.3506.07010.270265010.8505.4502.50019.30016.70013.50018.77016.42010>>770157005.20019.20032.66025.5108'5012.6504.95017F0008.4507.85019.30020.30019.80018.07019.97020.57029.0000~3840.00000040.37003450.3590.3170.2780~3950.3830.41803690.4520.3700.3850.514'>>3210.2340.1870.1110.0650.1750.0160.1850.0340.0160~3130.2770.2290.3060~2730.1840.26300320~3110.4750.3910.1290.2160~0310.2810.1380.1240.3130.3260.3190.2960.3220.3290.4330.5030.18900000.2860.3380.3630~3750~2100.3640.4330.38103490.4570.4380.3710.5240~2590.3300F0000.0000~2580.1820.0000.0320.0000.2000.1880.1880>>1410.34302990.2060.2580.1210.3640~5590.4580.0000.051000001170.0290.107.0~1690.1540.2150.3540.2770.3330.31983.42883.900103.815117.11980.87979.51873.246114.913123.958110.176134.076129.877104.05693.577-107.296102.85112218197.932163'15149'01104F800130.86996545112~929115~94293.49675.66071.92371.38163.36464.65266.16866.45559.91760~99199.018105.16890;67095.65581.527126.607115.997105.00978.57081.59574'2959.66669.28165.62086'0519'7219500-0.415-13~719-0~8790~4826:754-9'13-5.9589.824-8.076-3.8770.94411.423-2.2962.149-10.18114>>068-30.615-1660127.2001.131-1.545-17.929-3.94221.504-11660-7923-7'813.63623481.832-0.455"6>>0835.0091898212.832-11.670-16.655-F527-23.607-12.997-2'09-13.570-16595-99295.334-4.2810.380-14.40524

$1fyII4$/

Table3-1LWRWeldDataandNon-Linear YieldStrengthModelEstimates oftheUnlrradlated USE(Continued)

~PlanUnirradiated Irradiated USEUSE(Measured)

(Measured)

USE'M~USE~USE'M~-USE Calculated Fractional USE~ChanaUnirradiated MeasuredUSEFractional (Calculated)

USEUSE'oMUSE'Mrhs-USE'oM

~Chane~ltdb~ZbCASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASE101102103104105106107108109110ill112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145QuadCity1QuadCity1QuadCity1QuadCity2QuadCity2QuadCity2QuadCity2QuadCity2RanchoSecoRanchoSecoRanchoSecoRobinson2SONGS2Salen1Salen2Salen2Sequoyah1Sequoyah1Seguoyah2Sequoyah2ShearonHarSt.Lucio1St.Lucie1Surry1Surry1Surry2Surry2THZ1THI1TrojanTrojanTrojanTurkeyPt.3TurkeyPt.3TurkeyPt.4V.C.SunnerV.C.SunnerVernontYankWolfCreekZion1Zion1Zion1Zion1Zion2Zion2looeooo100.000looeooo87.00090.000~125.000125F000125.00068.00068.00068.000112.00099.000104.000ill.000111.000111.000111.000112~000112~00094.000144.000144F00070.00070.00090.00090.000Sle000eleooo83.00083~0008300065.00065.00066F00091.00091eooo107.000looeooo64.00064F00068.00068.0006900069eooo85.00095.0007500041.00051.000107.00089.00080.00051.00048.00053.000700008000075.00079F00074.0008200078.000109000110.00082.000108.000100.00053~0005000060.00070F00050eooo6400081.00062.00083.00048eooo59eooo44.0008700085.000107.00092eooo44F00052.00056.00049F00050.00051.00015.0005.00025.00046.00039.00018.00036.00045.00017F00020.00015.00042.00019.00029.00032.0003700029.0003300030002.00012.00036.00044.00017.00020.00030.00020.00031.00017.000200021.0000~00017.0006.00022.0004.00060000.0008.00020.00012.00012eooo19.00019.00018.00014~6003.20018.200"29.70018.6000.400810014.70014.00011.00025.05023.15016.10021.00018.70020e7001010011.8005.5506.0506.0006'309.33019.75024'5018.50010.30014'7011.7503'006300630020.85018~55021.0400-8005.0004.8000.90018.20016.0001340016.00018~5002450002460.0200.2980.4410.3030.0020.13002480.2370.1880.3860.3620.2680.3350.3050'310.1720'02Oe0340.0640~0610.0990.1570.319Oe3770.3020~1750'500~2010'220.0760.0760~3330~3030'36Oe005Oe03100300.0060~2980F2670.2280.267Oe3020.3790.1500.0500.2500.5290.4330.1440.2880.3600.2500.2940.2210.3750.1920.2790.2880.3330.2610.2970.0270.0180~1280.2500.3060'430.2860.3330.2220.3830.2100.0240.2530.0000.2620.0920.3330.0440.066Oeooo0.0800.31301880.1760~2790.2750~261112.78996.939106.81673.35073.202107214102.28610636666.86359.11386.299109.786109.356112.791113.613110.64098.98197.726112.836117.48887.294119.840118.5617779280.29385.95384'8066.70580.10082'226711389.84471.97684.60366.22287.43787.719110.30992.55562.6667094272.53166'4971.62882.142-12.7893.061-6.81613.65016.79817.78622.714186341.1378.887-18.2992.214-10.356-8.791-2.6130.36012~01913.274-Oe836-5.4886.70624.16025.439-7.792-10.2934.0475.12014.2950.9000.17815.887-6.844-6.976-19.603-0.2223.5633.281-3.3097.4451~334-6.942-4.531l.151-2.628-13.142 0II0 Table3-2AnalysisofTensileDataOutliers'ensile Data(ksi)CallawayCallawayOconee3Oconee3Oconee3VermontYankeeTtCChti~CIU~CIY'~CIA~CI~~CI0.~CI30~a-unirradiated 72.5-72.574.974.974.968.0-lowtemperature (70'F)(70'F)(71'F)(71'F)(71'F)cr-unirradiated 67.5-intermed.

temp.(300'F)67.5(300'F)o-unirradiated

-hightemp.o-irradiated

-lowtemp.80.0(550'F)71.3(73'F)80.0(550'F)80.5(70'F)67.4(580'F)79.367.4(580'F)90.667.4(580'F)98.067.6(543'F)72.8a-irradiated 68.2-intermed.

temp.(150'F)78.4(125'F)o-irradiated

-hightemp.ha-lowtemp.65.7(550'F)-1.264.2(550'F)8.072.6(580'F)4.457.8(585'F)15.786.6(580'F)23.157.5(543'F)4.8da-intermed.

temp.0.710.9ho-hightemp.-14.3-15.85.2-9.619.2-10.1'hedatainthistableexhibityieldstrengthdecreases greaterthan5ksi.Thedatafromlefttorightareintheorderofincreasing fluenceforeachplant.26

Table3-3AnalysisofCharpyDataOutliersCharpyData'ft-Ibs)Dres.3Ores.3Dres.3Dres.3TestCondiTion

~Ca.6'Ca.6'Ca.0'~Ca.14Dres.3~Ca.14Dres.3Dres.3Dres.3Garigliano

~Ca.4~Ca.4~Ca.12~Ca.113DVTYankee'Ca

.30DUnirradiated USE'065706570706565103.4Irradiated USEIRRUSE'-USE'30 50.42.031067175452020.413.2594142123.7112423-20.320.825.216.621.48-15SeeTable2-4'hedataforDresden3arelistedfromlefttorightintheorderofincreasing fluence.Allfastfluences, exceptthosenoted,areabove1.0x10"n/cm'Dataforfastfluence=4.3x10"n/cm'Dataforfastfluence=2.75x10"n/cm'Dataforfastfluence=0.95x10"n/cm'.27 ytC Table3ALWRWeldDataandLInearYieldStrengthModelEstimates oftheUnlrradlated USE~PlanUnirradiated Irradiated USEUSE(Measured)

(Measured)

USE'hf~USEupsUSEM~USELfaasherUnlrradiated Calculated MeasuredUSE'ractional Fractional (Calculated)

USEUSEUSE'~USE'~-USE'ofhL,

~Chana~Chana~ftdb~fl-IbCASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASE1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950ANO-1ANO-1ANO-1ANO-2AngraBeaverVal1BeaverVal1BeaverVal1,BigRockBigRockBigRockBigRockCalcliffs1CalCliffs2Callavay1Callavay1Catawba1CrystalRiv3CrystalRiv3CrystalRiv3CrystalRiv3D.C.Cook1D.C.Cook1DavisBesseDavisBassoDavisBesseDavisBesseDavisBesseDiabloCan1DiabloCan2Dresden2Dresden3Dresden3Dresden3Dresden3Dresden3Dresden3Dresden3DuaneArnoldFarley1Farley1Farley1Farley2Farley2Farley2Ft.CalhounFt.CalhounGarigliano Garigliano Garigliano 73nooo73.00073.000154F000171nooo112.000112.000112~00095.00095.00095F00095.000160F000137.000112.000112F000128.00079F00079.00079F00079F000110.000110.00070.00070.00070~00072.00072.00098F000121F00071.00065.00065.00065.00065.00070F00070.00070F000101.000149;000149.000149.000144.000144.000144.000104000104.000103.400103.400103.40045.00047F00058~000147.000155.00078.00083.00088.00065.00070.00057~00080.000119.000105.00097F000101.000123F00068F00064aooo70.00063.00080.00094.00057~00054~00064.00062.0006500087.00085aooo52~QQQ45.00041.00042.00065.00059.00064.00070.000101~000108.000130F000115.000144.000144.000132.00059.00065.00079'0067.30Q60aooo28.00026.00015.000F00016.00034aooo29.00024.00030.00025.00038.00015.00041.00032.00015.00011.0005.00011.00015.0009.00016.QQQ30.00016.00013~00016.0006.00010.000F00011.00036.00019.00020.00024.00023F0000.00011.00060000.000Onooo41.00019.000340000~000000012.00045.00039.00023.80036a10043.40012~83012~8308.4303nlooOnooo19.90016.80015.8001790015a30012F1007'001220010.9008.0000.0004.30010.680lon4801.8801Q~6&019.05022.75010'0010.5005F50011~8005.50014.70016.60017.60020'7025.17016.5700.40020.83013.2302.0300.0006'5012.2508.1501.3506.45o5.35021.10022.10014.93036'1018,4900.1920.1920.1260.0470.0000.2990~2520.2370.2690.2300.1820.11301830.1640.1200~0000.0650.1600.1570."0280.16002860.3410.1530.1580.0830.17700830.2210.2490.2640.3060.37802490~0060.3120.19800300.0000~0980.1840.1220.0200.0970.0800.3170.3320.2240.5460.27703840~3560.2050.0450.0940.3040.2590.2140.3160.2630.4QO0.1580.2560.2340.134009800390~1390.1900.1140.2030.2730.1450.18602290.0860.1390.0970.1120.298Qa2680,3080'690~354Oaooo0.1570.0860~0000.0000'750'280.228Onoooo.ooo0.0830'330.37502300~3490'205572458.20166.396154.169155.000111.190110.963115.33488'599085069.64090141145655125.523110'27101.000131.48080.97275.93772.03175.018112.006142.69467.29664.09569a75575.33470.845111.610113.18270.65264.79965.86955'9265.3928581279.84572.1981O1.000119.767159.265131017146.976159.424143'1786.32097.233102.571148.28783.02817.27614.7996.604-0.16916.00008101.037-3.3346.1414.15025.360485914.34511.4771.77311.000-3.480-1.'7230636.9693.982-2'06-32.6942.7045.9050.2453.3341.155-13.6107.8180.3480201-0.86991080.392-15.8129845'.1980.00029.233-10.26517.9832.976-15'24048317.6806.7670829-44.88'720'7228

Table~LWRWeldDataandLinearYietdStrengthModelEstimates oftheUnlrradiated USE(Continued)

PlantUnirradiated Irradiated USEUSE(Measured)

(Measured)

USEupsUSEuziUSEu~USEu~Unirradiated USE(Catculated)

USE'cuUSE4~-USE'cu Calculated Fractional USEMeasuredFractional USE~Ch>>>>>>~Cha>>>>~hdh~hdhCASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASE5152535455565758596061626364656667686970717273747576777879808182838485868788CASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASE89909192CASECASECASECASECASE94CASE9596979899CASECASECASECASECASECASE100Garigliano Garigliano Garigliano Garigliano GinnaGinnaGinnaHaddanNeckIndianPt.2IndianPt.3KewauneeKewauneeMaineYankeeMaineYankeeMaineYankeeMaineYankeeMcGuire1McGuire1McGuire2McGuire2Millstone 2Millstone 2NorthAnna1NorthAnna1NorthAnna2NorthAnna2Oconee1Oconee1Oconee1Oconee2Oconee2Oconee2Oconee3Oconee3Oconee3Palisades Palisades PrarieIsl1PrarieIsl1PrarieIsl1PrarieIsl2PrarieIsl2PrarieIsl2Pt.Beach1Pt.Beach1Pt.Beach1Pt.Beach2Pt.Beach2Pt.Beach2QuadCity1103.400103.400103.400103.40080.00080.00080000105.000118.000120.000126000126.000105.000105.000105.000105.000112.000112.000133.000133.000132.000132.00095.00095000112F0001150006400064>>00064.00067.0006z.oao68.00066.00066.00066.000118~000118F0007900079>>00079>>000103,000103.000103~00065.00065.00065.0006s.aao65.00066.00072>>00051.40083.900103.4007380053.00051.00050.00083.00075.00068.0007800082.00057.00059.00066.0ao50.00083.00075000133>>00013300098.000108.0009500092.000112F000920005200052.00055.000440004?.aao54.00049F00058.00042F00052.00064.0007900075>>00079.00091.000100.00092.00054.0005500051.00042.00047.00044.00049.00052.00019.5000.00029.60027.00029.00030.00022.0004300052.00048.00044.00048.00046.0003900055.00029.000370000.000-0~0003400024.0000>>0003.0000.0002300012~00012.0009.00023.00020.00014F00017.0008.00024.00066.00054F0000.0004.0000.00012F0003.00011.00011~00010.00014~00023.00018.00022.0002300024.8900.0000.71023.75021.75022.85019.650le?502580024'0027.75023.6503067023.72024.97036.17019.90013.80010~9507.3506.07010.2702.65010.&505.4502'0019.30016.70013.50018.77016~42010.77015.7005.20019~20032'6025.5108.05012.650495017~0008.4507.85019.30020.30019'0018.07019.97020'7029.0000.3730.0000~01103560.3260.3430.2950.2510.3870.3720.4160.3550.4600.3560~3750.5430'990.2070.1640'100.0910.1540.0400.1630.082.0.0380.2900~2510.2030.28202460,1620.2360.0780~2880.4900.3830.1210.190a.az40.2550.1270.1180.2900'050.2970~27103000.3090>>4350.5030.1890.0000.2860.3380.3630.3750.2100.3640.4330.3810.3490.4570.4380.3710.5240'590.3300~0000>>0000.2580.1820.0000.0320.0000.2000.1880.1880.141034302990.2060.2580~1210.3640.5590.4580.0000.0510.0000.1170.0290~1070~1690.1540'1503540.2770.3330.31982'2383.900104.513114.64178.66477.59670.897110.851122.349108.280133.619127.083105.56591.586105.524109.302118.31&94.578159.138149.480107.817127.66798.933109.884121.97195.58473.18869.38068'6661.24362.35964.40564.09462.90758.989101.941103.66989.84992.56485.336122.148114~515104.27976.00379F08072'4657.61767.10063.63486.72621.37?19.500-1.113-11.2411.3362'049.103-5.851-434911.720-7619-1.083-0.56513>>414-0.524-4'02-631817~422-26.138-16.48024.1834.333-3.933-14.884-9.97119~416-9~188-5'80-4.9665.7574'413.59519063>>093?F01116>>05914>>331-10~849-13*564-6>>336-19~148-11.515-1>>279-11.003-14.0807'467'83-2'002>>366-14'2629 4),4 Table34LWRWeldDataandLinearYieldStrengthModelEstimates ottheUnirradiated USE(Continued)

~PlanUnirradiated Irradiated USEUSE(Measured)

(Measured)

USE'~USE~USE4~-USE Unirradiated Calculated MeasuredUSEFractional Fractional (Calculated)

USEUSEUSE'~USE4~-USE'~

CASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASECASE101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145QuadCity1QuadCity1QuadCity1QuadCity2QuadCity2QuadCity2QuadCity2QuadCity2RanchoSecoRanchoSecoRanchoSecoRobinson2SONGS2Salem1Salem2Salem2Sequoyah1Sequoyah1Sequoyah2Sequoyah2ShearonHarSt.Lucie1St.Lucie1Surry1Surry1Surry2Surry2THZ1THZ1TroanTrojanTroanTurkeyPt.3TurkeyPt.3TurkeyPt.4V.C.SummerV.C.SummerVermontYankWolfCreekZion1Zion1Zion1Zion1Zion2Zion2.100.000100.000100.0008700090.000125.000125.000125.00068.00068.00068.000112.00099.000104.000111.000111.000111.000111.000112.000112.00094.000144.000144.00070.00070.00090.00090F00081.0008100083.00083.00083.000-65F00065.00066.00091.00091.000107.000100.0006400064.00068.00068.00069.0006900085.00095.00075F00041.00051.000107.00089.00080.00051.00048.00053.00070.00080.00075.0007900074.00082.00078.000109.000110.00082.000108.000100.00053.00050.00060.00070.0005000064.00081.00062.00083.00048.00059.00044.00087.00085.000107~00092F0004400052.00056.0004900050.00051.000'5.0005.00025.00046.00039.00018.00036.00045.00017~00020.00015.00042.00019.00029.00032+0003700029F00033.00030002.00012.00036.00044.00017.00020.00030.00020.00031.00017~0002.00021.0000.00017.0006.00022.0004F0006.0000.0008.00020+00012.0001200019~00019~0001800014.6003.20018'0029'0018.6000.4008.10014.70014.00011.00025.05023.15016.10021.00018~70020.70010.10011.8005.5506.0506.0006.9309.33019.75024.35018.50010.30014.87011.7503.6006.300630020.85018.55021.0400.8005.0004.8000.90018~20016.00013.40016.00018.50024F5000'190.0480.2730.4460~2790.0060.1220.2210.2100.1650,3760.3470'420.3150~2810.31101520.177Oe0830.0910.0900.104Ool4002960'650'780.1550.22301760.0540.0950.0950.3130.2780~3160.0120.0750.0720.0140~2730~2400.2010.240027803680.1500.0500.2500.5290'330.1440.28803600.25002940.2210.3750.1920.27902880.3330.2610;2970.0270.0180.1280.25003060.24302860333022203830.2100.0240.2530.0000.2620.0920.3330.0440.0660~0000.0800.31301880.1760.2790.2750.261108.83599.790103~16473.94070.735107.646101.309102.63064.55757.48584.902107.239105'71109.489109'98107.32496.64194.775118.898120.97990'10120.529116.27275.31178~77183'4582.79164.35477.69385.62468.47091.66269.84481.74664.29088.05791.892115.30293.25960.52368.42170'8864.4746920480.632-8.8350.210-3.16413.06019.26517.35423.69122.3703.44310.515-16.9024.761-6~471-5.4891.2023.67614.35916.225-6.898-8'793.89023.47127.728-5.311-8.7716.9557.20916.6463.307-2.62414.530-8.662-4.844-16.7461~7102.943-0.892-8.3026.7413'774.4212.0883.526-0.204-11.63230 S'

Table3-5ElevatedTemperature YieldStrengthUncertainty Estimation'lant ANO-1ANO-2CalvertCliffs1CalvertCliffs2.CrystalRiver3Dresden1Dresden1Dresden1FortCalhounHumboldtBayMillstone 2MaineYankeeOconee1Oconee2Oconee3Palisades PointBeach2RanchoSeco1St.Lucie1St.Lucie2TMI-1~CaceleUnirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated CORE-6VANEUnirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated Unirradiated NumberofMeasurements 334~36344433633363'33460.465.966.968.867.575.099.174.464.157.566.761.156.469.867.462.1,63.161.665.959,264,3TwoSigmaEstimateksi3.61.82.13.03.09.54.3'3.53.0,5.31.34.83.51.41.73.81,30.61.63.04.6.Average3.7-3.2'ataforweldtensilespecimens testedinthe535'Fto650'Frange.Individual averagesandstandarddeviations arefortestsperformed overa50'Frange.31 ll' 200y=x~<50100I-Q50Q~~~:~)""~~""~""":~~.ge.".W.gy=0.988x.050100150MEASUREDUSE(Ft-Lbs),

200Figure3-1Non-Linear YieldStrengthModelUncertainty PlotShowingMeasuredVersusPredicted Unirradiated USE32

1.0I08Z0.6OUJ0.4O~<0.2'g.'H-------.~-t.---':----

':0:~:)0.y~L'"'"'"""""

'""""')+:~~~~:~0.0010203040INCREASEINYIELDSTRENGTH(ksi)50Figure3-2Comparison oftheReference

[OD86]YieldStrengthModel(solidline)withCurrently Available LWRWeldData33 llf'il 1.0m~0.8Z0.6O>0.4Z0Q~<0.20.00g~t,j!4~~~~~:+~~~~10203040INCREASEINYIELDSTRENGTH(ksi)50Figure3-3YieldStrengthModelBasedonLinearCorrelation BetweenFractional DecreaseinUSEversusho34

~gk~

1.0UJc008ZUJCO0.6CIOD>0.4Z00~<0.2~:LinearModelNon-Linear Model0.0010203040INCREASEINYIELDSTRENGTH(ksi)50Figure3-4Comparison oftheLinearandNon-Linear ModelAppliedtoLWRWeldData gc 200y=xl50COo1000500~100~~~..g.O~y~',ty=0.979x0050100150MEASUREDUSE(Ft-Lbs)200Figure3-5LinearYieldStrengthModelUncertainty PlotShowingMeasuredVersusPredicted Unirradiated USE36

5040I-(9~30CO'CI20LLjCOcc10'OZ~:~N'l~~:.~'""'""~~~"'"'"'""'~..g.....r.

~<<4~g:.V~~~00.00.20.40.60.8FRACTIONAL DECREASEINUSE1.0Figure3-6IncreaseinYieldStrengthversusFractional DecreaseinUSE37 It'4'I 128IINQUIIIY1-WELDIIATKIclRL 188288888Deg.F8868485r~~SgS0~Baseline0A1.83E19ni'ca~~E7.27E17n/c~~I48~58188iSBTestTemperature 258Deg.CFigure3-7Hyperbolic TangentFitofANOUnit1WeldMetalData188HEAVERVALLEYUNITI-WELDNAIERIAL-iSB-5858158258358458Deg.F128Pn128Agox886828-158-188-SB0,858188TestTemperature 88I68~Baselinelj6.54E18n/'cn>V2.55E18n/etc~289.49E18ni'ere~8158288258Deg.CFigure3-8Hyperbolic TangentFitofBeaverValleyUnit1WeldMetalData38

• 4ClPVg'~I' DRESDENUHII2-HELDNAIERIAL{MDRZAZ)8M158258358458558Deg.F168148128ox8868'Baseline021.87E19nf'cN<'~46.48E18ntcte>~54.65E19n/ce>~~I12888I68~8M188158288258388Deg.CTestTemperature Figure3-9Hyperbolic TangentFitofDresdenUnit2WeldMetalDataDRESDENUHII3-HELDNAIERIAL(WDR3AZ)-58581582M3M458De@.F188~e88W>>W96848IBaseline0122.86E19n/'err<~146.15E18n/co<~41.28E19n/ere~062.71E16n/cN~Io068~I48-188-5858188TestTemperature 158288258De@.CFigure3-10Hyperbolic TangentFitofDresdenUnit3WeldMetalData39 fl, 228188FARLEYUNITI-WELDNATERIAL58158258358~~55458Deg.F168148168148g~128D~Q18888M'68Io~VRBaseline0U1.65E19n/cN~~X2.88E19n/ca~5.83E18n/co~188884c58188158TestTemperature 288258Deg.CFigure3-11Hyperbolic TangentFitofFarleyUnit1WeldMetalDataFORTILHOUNUNITi-WELDNATERIAL58158*258358459Deg.F148128188886848~Baseline0W2254.29E18n/cN>~W265S.BBEiSn/co<1886874c.2858188158288258Deg.CTestTemperature Figure3-12Hyperbolic TangentFitofFoitCalhounUnit1WeldMetalData40 ih~

288188RENAUNEE-NELDNATERIAL58158258358458Deg.F168148e128~g1988868RBaseline0P2.89E19n/cN~~RR2.87E19n/ca~~~U5.S9E18nt'cN~a12888~68-158-189-59958198158289258Deg.CTestTemperature Figure3-13Hyperbolic TangentFitofKewauneeWeldMetalDataQUADCITIESUNIT2-MELDNATERIAL(NQC282)-58M1582M358458Deg.F128198r-e884l~068485Baseline0128.97E18nf'c~~~32.43E19n/'ca~R68~I4c9M188158288258Deg.CTestTemperature Figure-3-14Hyperbolic TangentFitofQuadCitiesUnit2WeldMetalData41 1&AJpL 168SOHGSUHIIi-WKLIIHAIERIAL58158258358458Deg.F148128i7)188886828~000~Baseline0A1.28E19nf'cv>rF5.14E19n/c~~18868,74c-188-5858188158288258Deg.CTestTemperature Figure3-15Hyperbolic TangentFitofSONGSUnit1WeldMetalData128-58ZIIUHII2-WELIIHAIERIAL58158258458Deg.FPn88680%48~~~Baseline0T1.18E19n/c~~~Ij2.88E18n/ca~I48~58188158288258Deg.CTestTemperature Figure3-16Hyperbolic TangentFitofZionUnit2WeldMetalData42

NORMALlZED WELDUSEDATAFORl0PLANTSIGCCLuZUJI-OCLQCCQOLIJNCCO200150IOO5000~oQ100200300TESTTEMPERATURE (F)400Zion2OSONGS1+QuadCity20KewauneecIFortCalhounI>Farley1<3Dresden3vDresden2<BeaverValley0ANO-1tFigure3-17LinearRegression FittoNormalized UpperShelfWeldData43

~5gV'AJ'P~II

4.0 SummaryandConclusions

Basedontheanalysesreportedherein,.it hasbeenconcluded thatthereisapositivelinearcorrelation betweenfractional decreaseinUSE(f)andincreaseintensileyieldstrength(ho).Thefollowing functional formcanbeusedtoaccurately predict"f",providedhadataareavailable:

f=0.015dawheref=fractional decreaseinUSEho=increaseinyieldstrength(ksi)(4-1)Incaseswheresurveillance capsuledataareavailable, theunirradiated USEcanbeestimated asfollows:USEIRRU$E'-(1-f)(4-2)whereUSE'unirradiated USE(ft-Ibs)USE'""=irradiated USE(ft-Ibs)Theuncertainty inestimating theunirradiated USEusingthismodelwasdetermined byapplyingthemodelto145LWRweldsforwhichUSE;USE'~,andbadataareavailable.

Thetwosigmalimitwasdetermined tobe23.69ft-lbs.ThemodelwasappliedtotheNMP-1surveillance weldandtheunirradiated USEwascalculated tobe126ff-lb.Subtracting thetwosigmaof24ft-Ibyieldsalowerboundestimateof102ft-lbs.Thisvalueisconsistent withthe100ft-Ibvalueobtainedearlier[MA92a]usingengineering judgement.

ItisNMPC'spositionthatthesurveillance weldCharpybehaviorisrepresentative ofthebeltlineweldmaterialbehavior.

Thebeltlineweldsandsurveillance weldweremanufactured bythesamesuppliers, theweldwiretypeandfluxtypearethesame,theweldingprocedure usedisthesame,andtheCuandNicontentofthesurveillance weldisrepresentative ofthebeltlinewelds.Therefore, basedonthe.analysesreportedherein,theunirradiated USEfortheNMP-1beltlineweldsisconservatively estimated tobe102ft-lbs.Thisresult,whichisbasedonanin-depthstatistical

analysis, isconsistent withearlierestimates of90ft-Ibsbasedonengineering judgement, Therefore, asreportedinReference

[MA92a],noneoftheNMP-1beltlineweldmaterials willexhibitUSElevelsbelow50ft-IbspriortoEOL.44 1,1C

5.0 References

[ABB92]ABB/CE(T.G.Murray)lettertoYangP.Soong,NMPC,datedNovember4,1992,Re:NineMilePointUnit1ReactorVesselMaterials".

[CE90]"NiagaraMohawkPowerCorporation NineMilePointUnit1ReactorVesselWeldMaterials",

ReportNo.'6390-MCC-001, ABBCombustion Engineering NuclearPowerCombustion Engineering, Inc.,Windsor,Connecticut, June,1990.[LE64][MA85a]Lewis,S.R.,WeldingMaterialQualification toRequirements ofNAVShips250-1500-1, Metallurgical R&D,Combustion Engineering, Sept.1964-Feb.

1965.IManahan,M.P.,"Procedure fortheDetermination ofInitialRTN>>inCasesWhereLimitedBaselineDataareAvailable",

November, 1985.[MA85b]Manahan,M.P.,Quayle,S.F.,Rosenfield, A.R.,andShetty,D.K.,"Statistical AnalysisofCleavage-Fracture Data",Invitedpaper,Conference" Proceedings oftheInternational Conference andExhibition onFatigue,Corrosion

Cracking, FractureMechanics, andFailureAnalysis, SaltLakeCity,December2-6,1985.[MA901[MA91][MA92a]Manahan,M.P.,"NineMilePointUnit1RT>>Determination",

FinalReportfromMPMResearch&Consulting toNMPC,September 28,1990.Manahan,M.P.,"NineMilePointUnit1Surveillance CapsuleProgram",

NMEL-90001, January4,1991.4Manahan,M.P.,Soong,Y.,"Response toNRCGenericLetter92-01forNineMilePointUnit1",NMPCProject03-9425,June12,1992.[MA92b]Manahan,M.P.,Reportentitled, "UpperShelfEnergyDropTrendCurveModelling",

November30,1982.[MA93a]Manahan,M.P.,FinalReportentitled, "Elastic-Plastic FractureMechanics Assessment ofNineMilePointUnit1BeltlinePlatesforServiceLevelAandBLoadings",

February19,1993.[MA93b],Manahan,M.P.,FinalReporttoNMPC,entitled, "Elastic-Plastic FractureMechanics Assessment ofNineMilePointUnit1BeltlinePlatesforServiceLevelCandDLoadings",

datedFebruary22,1993.45 c>~r<

,[McFRAC]Manahan,M.P.,et.al.,"Statistical AnalysisMethodology forMechanics ofFracture",

FinalreporttoBattelle's Corporate Technology Development Office,1984.[NRC92]NRClettertoNMPCdatedOctober13,1992,Re:SummaryofSeptember 30,1992,MeetingtoDiscussLicensee's ResponsetoGenericLetter92-01,"ReactorVesselStructural Integrity",

forNineMilePointNuclearStationUnitNo.1.[0D86]Odette,G.R.,Lombrazo, P.M.,"Relationship BetweenIrradiation Hardening andEmbrittlement ofPressureVesselSteels",Proceedings ofthe12thASTMSymposium ontheEffectsofIrradiation onMaterials,.ASTM STP870,pp.840-860,1986.[PREDB]PR-EDB:PowerReactorEmbrittlement DataBase,Version1,NUREG/CR-4816, Revision1,datedMay,1991.[ST84]Stahl,D.,Manahan,M.P.,Failey,M.P.,Landow,M.P.,Jung,R.G.,andLowry,L.M.,"Examination, Testing,andEvaluation ofIrradiated PressureVesselSurveillance Specimens fromtheNineMilePointNuclearPowerStation",

FinalReportfromBattelle-Columbus toNMPC,July18,1984.[SYSTAT]l"SYSTAT5.03:Statistical CodePackage",

SYSTAT,IncCopyright 1991.46 A"jA