ML20149F081

Intervenor Exhibit I-COMM-10,consisting of from Texas A&M Univ to NRC Re Evacuation Time Estimate Studies

ML20149F081
Person / Time
Site:	Seabrook
Issue date:	12/04/1987
From:	Urbanik T TEXAS A&M UNIV., COLLEGE STATION, TX
To:	Matthews D NRC
References
OL-I-COMM-010, OL-I-COMM-10, NUDOCS 8802110412
Download: ML20149F081 (2)

Text

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T 1113 T l'. N A S A h .1 \ U N I V l'.11 S I T Y S V.W I?. NI TEXAS TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE 4

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BRANCH 1

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a May 6. 1985 Dave Matthews U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Conmission Division of Emergency Preparedness

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Washington DC 70555

Dear Dave:

I believe that we need to move ahead in an area of evacuation time estimate studias as they relate to current technology in general and IDYNfv in particular.

. Based on my emperience in licens.'re) hearings and other events liksi Maliie Yankee.

it is time to move ahead in order to avoid potential future problems for NRf.

i i do not believe thtt I can continue to be effectivesfor NHC staff if we do j not address some fu'1anentdi issues underlying how evatuatton time estimati.

Studies are done and how F EMA will affect present and f ut ure evacual iuit time

) estimate studies. )

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Histor ic all y evacuat ion t in,e est im3tes were def ended agains t i t i t ii i su.

that they were too low. We have 3pparently driven that polit home ind forrent 1 c ontent tons of ten deal with the relevancy of auumpt ions, k you might e.e.il) tontlude. If is more dif f icul t to dtfend the absolute "He ude of a%ut'pttons, t h .i n it is in def end their reasonableness. That is to say, it is easier to l convince someone that an estimate is not_ low than it is to convince someone i that the estimate is accuratt.

1 l More recently. FEPA has begun to get invol ver$ in evacuat ion t ime est i'ut es l per <e. T h i c. invnivement further exasperate'. the

• sue of auutplions. This iniolsement of r[vA i t. likely to inctease as it is riearly within their tom.i t n .

Ii' in ordor for NRL to be in 3 strong pnsture relative t o evar na11on ito I

est'"ites, ! ra s t be 3ble to move f orward ctoicerning the st at e-ot .t he -ai t i ! ti ivi-

'o e.ac uat ion t ine est imate studies. Otherwise. I am not quing to be iht e f.,

! tonc t i in et f + J t isel y on beh il f of NRf.  !

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! MNL V r ' o.ir l y represent <. c.t a t e-of -t he-ar t t ot hnol oqy i n e v a t o .i t I ' m t ni c j l o s t en i t ..s .

Ihe !DY'dV % del does not represets. f ! M.A t ec hnol oq y. tht eni y f!k'A i t' 1 -. i n i n <; n t U.S. Depirtment of it anspor t it inn m> tdel'. . I suqqesI wo i 01 I abus it e

! .. t t o i f MA ind I D

• Nf y h il *. rt iint a ining a st rong NQf ( -tpatsil i t y. Th i' will 1501(!

l iost nf de vel op i ng i simil nr C inabil it y ind the inov i t able hattles ovor i w puter g . (,, r,, 7

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My proposal is to develop NRC capability relat ive to 10YNEV in order to accomplish two objectives. first, development of the capabilit y protects NHC's ,

position relative to evacuation time estimates. Second, development of that '

capabil ity will allow informed revision of Appendia 4 in a nanner that can be defended, in order to proceed, a computer tie to FEMA's integrated Lmergent y Manage-ment Inf ormat ion System < (IEMIS) would be required, This would require $ P O,00tl f or a color terminal, 4800 baud error correcting modem, and printer. This equip. 1 ment allows full system capability, in addition, suf fic ient staf f t ime would I be required to become familiar with the system, in addition, I would propose' that we do some sensitivity studies similar to those done for CLEAR. A hudget of $70,000 (including hardware) would be required for this undertaking. A more specific proposal could be developed if NRC was interested in pursuing thi<,

matter.

In closing. I believe we are at a decision point f or NRC rel at ive to evai n.

ation time estimates. NRC needs either to connit to addit ional develnpment work in this, area, or pass the ball to FEMA. Because FEMA has yet to operalton.

alite its re;ponsioility in this area, I believe it is in NRC's best interest to continue invol vement in evacuation time estimates.

Sinterely.

)/ o _.

k Thomas th banik l!

Program Man 3aer T U : k als cc: Matt Moeller, Bat telle PNL J.A. Mac tellan, Battelle PNL P.O. Bai 999 R ichl and, WA 9935?

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