ML20008D479
| ML20008D479 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Seabrook  |
| Issue date: | 06/07/1989 |
| From: | Luloff A MASSACHUSETTS, COMMONWEALTH OF, NEW HAMPSHIRE, UNIV. OF, DURHAM, NH |
| To: | |
| References | |
| OL-I-MAG-110, NUDOCS 9003050189 | |
| Download: ML20008D479 (28) | |
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 30 JW 18 P4:33 i
NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD
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Sefore the Administrative Judges:
i Ivan W.
Smith, Chairman Dr. Richard F. Cole Kenneth A. McCollom t
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In the Hatter of
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Docket Nos. 50-443-OL
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50-444-OL PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY
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(Off-Site EP)
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE, ET AL.
)
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)
(Seabrook Station, Units 1 and 2)
)
April 3, 1989 l
)
.t TESTIMONY OF DR. ALBERT E.
LULOFF ON BEHALF OF ATTORNEY GENERAL JAMES M. SHANNON REGARDING JI-2 AND JI-21 (PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION)
I.
SUMMARY
OF TESTIMONY In this testimony, Dr. Luloff sets forth his population forecasts for.the number of permanent residents in each of the six Massachusetts EPZ communities for 1989.
II.
TESTIMONY Q1.
Please state your name and position.
A1.
My name.is Albert E.
Luloff.
I am Associate Professor of Rural Sociology in the Department of Leisure Management.and Tourism, a Research Associate Professor in the Center for Health Promotion and Research, and Faculty Associate-of the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research, all at the University of tiew Hampshire.
9003050109 890607 DR ADDCK 05000443 PDR lhd(s l l Q L
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02.
Briefly sammarize your experience and professional qualifications.
A2.
I received a B.S. degree in Rural Sociology from 1
Cornell University (1971), a M.S. degree in Sociology from i
North Carolina State University (1974), and a Ph.D. in Rural
)
So'ciology from the Pennsylvania State University in 1977.
Since graduation from Penn State, I have been employed at the University of New Hampshire where my responsibilities have been divided between research and teaching (currently 60% research -
1 40% teacning).
My research has emphasized the study of the structure and impact of population redistribution and migration on New England's communities, in general, and New Hampshire communities specifically.
As part of my research responsibilities, I have developed a large, integrated data base of information on New Hampshire communities and have begun a parallel structure for the other New England states.
This data base, coupled with my quantitative and survey research skills, supports much of my work on community and population trends within New England.
My teaching responsibilities focus on community planning and development, planned change in nonmetropolitan communities, and research methods.
I am the editor or author of five books and monographs and over fifty-five p'ablished articles and research reports.
Many of these publications concern tne impacts of population migration.
For a more detailed description of my background, experience, and qualifications, see my resume which is attached to this testimony (Attachment 1).
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Q3.
What is the purpose of this testimony?
l A3.
In this testimony I will address certain matters i
raised in response to JI Contention 2 (regarding Evacuation Time Estimates) and JI Contention 21 (as amended by the Joint Stipulation of February 7, 1989) (concerning population totals for the Massachusetts EPZ).
JI-2, Basis B, asserts that the SPMC's evacuation time estimates ('ETEs') 'are based on incorrect assumptions concerning the number of cars that will flow through roads, intersections and ramps in Massachusetts."
One element of the roadway demand during an evacuation is that i
which comes from the permanent resident population.
This testimony addresses how large the permanent resident population is in each of the six Massachusetts EPZ communities in 1989.
JI-21 also raises this issue by asserting that the permanent resident population figures contained in the SPMC are incorrect for the current time period.
The accuracy of the population estimates developed for and reported in Volume 6 (Table 2-1, p.
2-9) of the New Hampshire Radiological Emergency Response Plan
('NHRERP') Rev. 2 (August, 1986), and repeated in the SPMC, Table 1.3-1, are the focus of my comments.
My work is intended to lay a foundation for a realistic appraisal of rates of population growth of the Massachusetts communities in the EPZ by describing the' best demographic evidence available.
This testimony presents only my estimates of the growth which has occurred to 1989.
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Q4.
Have you recently conducted any studies or Analyses of tne current population and growth rates in the six Massachusetts EPZ communities?
A4.
Yes, I have.
At the request of the Department of the Attorney General for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, I recently analyzed the growth rates in six Massachusetts EPZ communities and, using those rates, developed a series of population forecasts for each of these communities.
QS.
Which six communities are these?
AS.
The Massachusetts EPZ includes the towns of Amesbury, Merrimac, Newbury, Salisbury, West Newbury, and the city of Newburyport.
Q6.
Would you summarize your findings regarding the growth rates in these six communities?
A6.
Certainly.
The basic finding is that as a whole, the permanent population of the Massachusetts EPZ communities has been increasing at a faster rate than either Essex County (home to the six localities) or the Commonwealth.
Using the most recent data available for these communities from the Census Bureau, United States Department of Commerce, I have projected that their combined population will have surpassed 55,200 in 1989.
This exceeds by 9.24 the population estimate of 50,593-utilized in the S'PMC (Table 1.3-1) and in the ETE study I
contained in Volume 6 of the NHRERP, Rev.
2.
I understand that the estimate 50,593 is a project. ion to 1986 made by the authors of Volume 6 based on 1985 town clerk estimates.
Those estimates were multiplied by a growth rate the authors obtained I
i.
using State data for the years 1980 and 1985 (see Table 2-1, page 2-9, Volume 6, NHRERP, Rev. 2).
In my opinion, that is n
too short a period upon which to develop growth rates for these communities.
Instead, the growth rates I have used are derived from the longer term period 1970-1986, making use of recently released Bureau of the Census data for the anchoring years (1970 and 1986 respectively).
Q7 Why is it important that you have used Census estimates to anchor your projections?
A7.
It is generally accepted among those engaged in demographic research that information'from the Census Bureau i
are che best available.
The authors of Volume 6, NHRERP, Rev.
2, have relied on estimates of population from local town o
clerks.
Such data are subject to both collection and compilation errors and idiosyncratic biases, either of which can produce either inflated or deflated values.
The Census Bureau routinely produces systematic estimates of population using several different methodologies and assumptions, thereby greatly reducing the potential of either of the limitations of the town clerk data.
QB.
Can you provide us with an example to demonstrate this point?
A8.
Yes.
I'n Volume 6, NHRERP, Rev. 2, the town (sic -
Newburyport is a city) clerks in the six communities reported a 1985 estimated population of 50,048 (Table 2-1, page 2-9).
The
\\
authors of that volume used the 1985 numbers to project the 1986 figures (total of 50,593), which represented a 1.03%
i
- increase, j
l L.
.s According to the U.S. Bu'reau of the Census (Northeast 19{6 l
Population and 1985 Per Capita Income Estimates for Counties t
and Incorporated Places - Series P-26, Number 86-NE-SC, issued l
March 1988) the aggregate population for this area as of April 1, 1986, was 52,500, or 1,907 more peo'ple (a 3.76%
difference).
It matters what data is u1ed to develop a procedure from which estimates of permanent population are made.
09.
Why is your use of a longer time period preferable i
for generating population forecasts?
A9.
In my opinion, the Volume 6 authors' use of the L
1980-1985 time frame is too short a period upon which to develop reliable estimates of growth rates for this area.
Small perturbations in a short period of time can cause great fluctuations in the generated numbers.
Unless a structural or disjoint shift in population occurs, it is preferable to make use of as much continuous data as is available in forecasting i
small area populations.
Because of this fact, I opted for the longer time series, 1970-1986, with Census estimates for starting and ending years.
Q10.
Are all the Massachusetts communities growing at the same rate?
A10.
No, there are some significant differences, which the chart below can best describe.
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' POPULATION FORECASTS 1986-1970-1906 1989 Compounded Interest Rates Amesbury 14,780 0.0164 15,520 t'
Merrimack 4,870 0.0086 4,997 Newbory.
5,360 0.0217 5,716<
Newburyport 16,890 0.0042 17,101 L
Salisbury 7,270 0.0352 8,065 West Newbury 3,330 0.0247 3,582 Area Total 52,500 54,981 p>,
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ATTACHMENT 1 j
RESUME NAME:
Albert Elliot Luloff HOME ADDRESS:
PHONE:
12 Tanglewood Drive 603-742-1822 Dover, NH 03820 OFFICE ADDRE.SS:
PHONE:
202 Hewitt Hall 603-862-3520 Department of Leisure Management and Tourism i
University of New Hampshire
- Durham, NH 03824 BIRTH:
June 22, 1950 MARRIED, THREE CHILDREN i
EDUCATION:
The Pennsylvania State University Major:
Rural Sociology Minor Theory:
Rural-Urban Continuum Degree Ph.D.
Date November, 1977 Thesis
Title:
Community Adoption of Flood Insurance: A Study of Structural and Interactional Influences North Carolina State University Major Sociology Minot:
English Degree M.S.
Date:
June, 1974 Thesis
Title:
Community Differentiation:
A Study of North Carolina Communities i
cornell University Major Rural Socioltgy Minors Communication Arts
(
Degree B.S.
/
Date:
December, 1971 Areas of Concentration:
A.
Rural Development B.
Migration and Social Change C.
Rural Sociology D.
Methods and Statistics
P, I
2 i
POSITIONS AND EXPERIENCE:
Present Position - Associate Profesor of Rural Sociology I
Previous Positions - Coordinator of Community Development Program (1979 - 1988).
Topic Manager for Rural Community Development Program Area, Small Business Innovation Research i
(SBIR), USDA, 10/87 - 2/88.
1 Visiting Associate Professor of Rural Sociology (Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development,
(
Penn State University; 01/86 - 01/87).
l 4
Assistant Professor of Community Development l
(University of New Hampshire; 7/77 - 6/82).
Teachingt l
LMT 593 - Community Systems Planning and Development.
This course stresses the principles and methods of community development with emphasis placed on theoretical orientations to the study of community..
LMT 620 Community Conflict and Consensus.
This course 4
stresses the major theoretical approaches to conflict analysis.
Through actual community case study research the students apply these theories in an effort to L
understand the critical social relationships which are part of planned or anticipated social changes in the community.
L LMT 700 - Planned Change in Nonmetropolitan Communities. This course focuses on the discussion and application of community development theory and principles as used in social science research.
Emphasis is given to empirical research studies c,f major rural development phenomena.
LMT 794 Measurement and Evaluation in Recreation.
This course introduces students to the meaning of science 'and the application of logic in the Scientific Method.
Emphasis is placed on the principles and techniques of L
scientific research, experimental design procedures, i
organization of investigative work, problem - analyses, work plans,and scientific writing.
l l
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Research Activities:
NE-149 Levels of Mortality and Economic / Social Structure of Counties in the United States SS-297 Community and Population Trends in New Hampshire
{
Northern Lands Study Project North Country Future Institute for Policy and Social Science Research j
Northeast Regional Center for Rurkl Development Industrialization, Ambient Air Pollution, and Death from Respiratory Diseases in the Northeastern United States National Rural Electric Cooperative Association - A National Rural Development Data Base for Policy Formation NEC-24 Northeast Rural Sociological Committee, Chairman, i
1987-present PUBLICATIONS:
Books and Monographs Published:
The American Rural Community Trends and Prosnacts.
Under Contract at Westview Press; (with L.E. Swanson, Jr. ), 1989.
Rural Peocle and Places:
A Svanomium on Tvooloales.
University Park, PA:
The Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development, 1986.
Rural Poculation Growth in New Enaland.
University Park, PA:
The Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development, 1986; (with T.E. Steahr).
The Directory of Rural Develonnent Workers in the Northeast.
University Park, PA:
The Northeast Regional Center for Rural Develcpaent, 1986, (second edition).
The Structure and Imnact of Poculation Redistribution in New England.
University Park, PA:
The Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development, 1985; (with T.E. Steahr).
Stratenies for Estimatina the Effects of Rural Community Develonnent Policies and Proarang.
Under contract to Iowa State University Press; (with M.K. Miller and D.E. Voth).
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4 Chapters in Books and Proceedings:
"The Aerial Perspectives Remote Sensing as a Tool in Tracking i
Land Use Change "
Pps. 39-56 in Plannina for the Chanoina Rural Landscanet Blandina Theory and Practice, 1988, New England Center for Continuing Education, University of New I
Hampshire, Durham, NH; (with W. Befort).
" Population Growth and Economic Development in New England."
Pp.
71-78 in
- Jahr, Johnson, and Wimberley (eds.)
HAM l
Dimensions in Rural Foliev:
Buildina Unon Our Heritaae, 1986, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC; (with G.E.
Frick).
"The Cultural Component of Rurality in the U.S. A. : Structural Stability Over Time."
Pages 73-87 in R.C. Bealer, (editor),
Rural Socioloaints at Work:
A Festschrift for M.E.
- John,
- 1985, Bellefonte, Pennsylvania:
Grove Press; (with M.K.
Miller).
" Interpreting the Turnaround for Policymakers." Pp. 17-26 in Wolensky and Miller (eds.), Proceedinas of the 4th Annual Conference on the Small City and Reaional Community, 1981, i
Stevens Point, Wisconsin:
University of Wisconsin - Stevens Point Press; (with L.E. Swanson, Jr.).
" Migration and Its Impacts on the Northeast."
Pp. 123-140 in Hugh C.
Davis (editor)
The Proceedinas of the Northeast Aaricultural Leadershin Assemhiv, 1979,-Amherst, MA:
Conter for Environmental Policy Studies; (with T.E. Steahr).
1 Journal Articles:
" Land Use Change and Aerial Photography:
Lessons for Applied Sociology."
Rural Socioloav 53 (Number 4):
forthcoming, 1989; (with W.A. Befort).
"The Changing New England Landscape:
An Historical Sociodem-ographic Perspective."
New Enaland Landscana 1 (1): 54-65, 1989.
" State Rural Policy Initiatives:
Their Time Has come."
J_ournal of the Community Develonment Society 19 (Number 2):
30-41, 1988; (with K.E. Martin).
" Rural Land Use and Demographic Change in a Rapidly Urbanizing L
Environment."
Landscane and Urban Plannina 16:
345-356,
(_
1988; (with W.A. Befort and M. Morrone).
" Crime Reporting Patterns Among Nonmetropolitan Residents:
Strategies for Action." Journal of the Community Devalcoment l
l Society 18 (Number 2):
81-97, 1987; (with L.J. Beaulieu).
l l
l t
5
" Social conservatism:
Determinants and Structural Stability
{
Over Time."
Journal of Rural Studies 2 (Number 1):
9-18, 1986; (with M.K. Miller and L.J. Beaulieu).
[
l "Reconceptualizing Age and Retirement Status:
A Note."
Socioloaical Focus:
18 (August):
273-278, 1985; (with L.E.
f Swanson, Jr., and R.H. Warland).
"Nonmetropolitan Participation in Programs of the Great Society." Social Science ouarterly 65 (December):
1092-1103, 1984; (with K.P. Wilkinson and M.J. Camasso).
" Local Voluntarism in New Hampshire:
Who, Why, and at What Benefit."
Journal of the community Devalcoment Society 15 (Number 2):
17-30, 1984; (with W.H. Chittenden, E. Kriss, S.
Weeks, and L. Brushatt).
" Rural Industrialization: A Logit Analysis." Eural Socioloav 49 (Spring):
67-88, 1984; (with W.H. Chittenden).
" Tenure and Satisfaction as Indicators of
Attachment:
A Note."
Journal of the Northeastern Aaricultural Economics Council 11 (Fall):
53-60, 1982 ; -(with L.E. Swanson, Jr., and R.H. Warland).
"Antiurbanism and Nonmetropolitan Growth:
A Re-evaluation."
Rural Socioloav 47 (Summer) :
220-233, 1982; (with T.W.
Ilvento).
"Who is Rural?
A Typological Approach to the Examination of Rurality." Rural Socioloav 46 (Winter): 608-625, 1981; (with M.K. Miller).
" Response Bias in Population Surveys:-
A Re~ly to Ryan and p
Lorenz." Journal of the Community Develonnent Society 12 (Fall):
20-23, 1981; (with P.H. Greenwood and T.W. Ilvento).
" Respondents, Nonrespondents, and Population Surveys." Journal of the community Develooment Society 12 (Fall):
1-11, 19811 (with T.W. Ilvento).
" Migration and the Utility of the CWHS:
A Comparative Note."
Review of Public Data Use 7 (Decemba.r) :
62-65, 1979.
" Factors Influencing Willingness to Move:
An 2xamination of Nonmetropolitan Residents."
Rural Socioloav 44 (Winter):
719-735, 1979; (with L.E. Swanson, Jr. and R.H. Warland).
" Inadvertent Social Theory:
Aggregation and Its Effect on Community Research. " Journal of the Northeastern Aaricultural Economics Council 8
(Spring):
44-47, 1979; (with P.H.
Greenwood).
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" Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program:
A Study of Community Activeness.* Rural Socioloav 44 (Spring):
j 137-152, 1979; (with K.P. Wilkinson).
" Socioeconomic Impacts on Agricultural Land Use Changes in the Northeast."
Journal of the Northeastern Aaricultural Economics council 7 (Fall):
67-74, 1978; (with D.E. Morris).
l "Is Community Alive and Well in the Inner-City? A Comment on 1
Hunter's Loss of Community." American Socioloaical Review 42 l
(October):
827-828, 1977; (with K.P. Wilkinson).
L L
"A Note on Population Size and Community Differentiation in Nonmetropolitan Communities."
socioloav and Social Research 1
61 (July):
486-495, 1977; (with C.S. Stokes).
" Historical Interpretations of Developments in American Sociological Theory:
A Note. "
Indian Journal of Social Research 14 (December) :
194-209, 1973; (with R.P. Mohan).
Agricultural Experiment Station Research:
" Land Use change:
Squam Lake Watershed, New Hampshire 1955-1982."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment
- Station, l
Research Report No. forthcoming; 1988; (with M.J. McGuire, M.
I Roth, F. Rubin, and J. McLaughlin).
" Land-Use Changer Rockingham County, New Hamp3 hire 1953-1982."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment
- Station, Research Report No. 112; 1986; (with W. A. Befort, M. Morrone).
1
" Land-Use changet Strafford County, New Hampshire 1953-1982."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Report No. 111; 1986; (with W.A. Befort, M. Morrone).
i
" Population Growth and Change in New Hampshire." New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Report No. 107, 1985; (with G.W. Howe and S.G. Hutchins).
"The Senior Population of New Hampshire."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Research nuport No.
- 104, 1984; (with C.F. Jansen, Jr., N.L. LeRay, and V.N. Parmele).
" Town Government volunteers:
Their Characteristics, Motivations, and Costs to the Community."
Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Report No. 101, 1984) (with W.H. Chittenden, E. Krims, S. Weeks, L. Brushatt).
"New Hampshire's Experience with the Current Use Program,1974 l
to 1980.S New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Report No. 99, 1983; (with S.D. Smith, E. A. Fountain, P.H. Greenwood, and G.E. Frick).
L 1
9 i
i 7
"An Evaluation of Economic Gains of Participants in the Hillsborough County's CETA Programs."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Report No. 95, 1983; (with P.H. Greenwood).
" Industry in New Hampshire:
Changes in the Manufacturing Sector, 1970-1978."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Report No. 93, 1982; (with W.H. Chittenden and J.P. Marcucci).
"A Methodological Appraisal of the Follow Up Instrument Used in Evaluating Hillsborough County's CETA Programs."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Bulletin No. 521, 1982; (with P.H. Greenwood).
I "The Effectiveness of Wide Lath Spacing in Reducing the Handling of Short Lobsters in New Hampshire's Waters."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Report No.
92, 1982; (with P.H. Greenwood, M.F. Grace, and the assistance of P. Tilton).
"New Hampshire's Changing Population."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Report No. 87, 1980; (with T.W. Ilvento and G.D.
Israel).
" Definitions of Community:
An Illustration of Aggregation Bias."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment
- Station, Bulletin.No. 516, 1980; (with P.H. Greenwood).
" Migration and Its Impacts on the Northeast."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Bulletin No. 511,1979; (with T.E. Steahr).
"New Hampshire's Population: Trends and Characteristics." New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Report No.
73, 1978; (with K.T. Taylor).
"The Older Population of New Hampshire."
New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Report No.66,1978; (with N.L. LaRay and J.G.
Campbell).
Book Reviews, Newsjournals, and Reports:
h
" Film Review of Marchant Peoolet Pride. Power, and Belief in
/
Rural America."
Teachina Socioloav 17 (forthcoming):
1989.
" Book Review of Desianina a CJtizen Involvement Proarant A
Guidebook for Involvina Citizens in the Resolution of Environmental Issues."
Journal of the Community Develonment Society 19 (Number 1):
138-39, 1988.
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"New England Economic Development:
A Pattern of Reindustri-1 alization." Commissioned paper for the New England Leadership Program, Inc., January, 1987.
"The Starr Case, Tenure, and RSS - A Perspective. "
The Rural I
-Socioloaint 6 (January):
34-38, 1986.
"Where the Surplus Milk is Being Produced."
Hoard's Dairvman 130 (September):
1023, 1985; (with G.E. Frick).
" Rural Community Development: The Preliminary Program for the 1985 RSS Meetings."
The Rural Sociolonist 5 (May):
163-190, 1985.
" Update on the Program for the 1985 Annual Meeting."
The l
Rural Socioloaint 5 (March):
125-126, 1985.
"On the 1985 RSS Meeting." The Rural Socioloaint 5 (January):
52-53, 1985.
"On Teaching Fall ' 82. " The Rural Socioloaint 3 (July):
- 278,
{
1983.
"The Rural Sociological Society:
A Professional Caricature."
q The Rural Socioloaint 3 (January):
23-27, 1983; (with M.K.
Miller).
j
" Book Review of Rural community Davalcoment:
A Proaram, j
Poliev, and Renaarch Model. "
Rural Socioloav 48 (Summer) :
1 332-334, 1983.
" Book Review of New Directions in Urban-Rural Miarationt_ Thg Eggg)ation Turnaround in Rural _1marica.H Rural Socioloav 47 (Summer) :
405-408, 1982.
" Book Review of community and Social chanaa in America." Rural Socioloav 46 (Spring):
157-159, 1981.
l
-"Hillsborough County's CETA Programs:
A Report Prepared for Southern New Hampshire Services."
Title IIB and D Follow-up Evaluation Project; December, 1980; (with P.H. Greenwood).
Invited Paper:
"The Good Community:
A Rural Sociological Perspective."
Newsline 8 (July):
44-48, 1980.
Reply to f
comments on
'The Good Community:
A Rural Sociological Perspective.'"
Newsline 8 (July):
53-56, 1980.
t Invited Remarkst.
"A Comment on 'The Study of Small Towns in Virginia.'" Small Town 10 (January-Februa'ry) :
29-30, 1980.
I I
j i
N.
idk R. ;.,
_ Book Review.of Goal Scttina for Community Develonment:
Thg
' Case of Yuba City, California." Rural Socioloav 44 (Summer):
434-436,-1979.
" Identifying the Locus for Action: What Local Residents SayJ Eng,ll Town 9 (December):
11-14, 1978.
" Book Review of Socioloaical Theory:
Its Develooments and 1
Maior Paradians."
Rural Socioloav 43 (Fall):
528-529, 1978.
1
" Citizens Concerns:
"What Local Residents Say."
Rural
-1 Develooment Vol. 1, 1974; (with J.S. Thomson, K.M. Martin _and J. P. Madden).
1 Papers Presented:
" Rural Development and Local Society:
How Do - Communities Act?"'
Keynote presentation to Rural Policy Interest Group, at the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1988; Athens, GA.
" Community ~ as = Place,
- Networks, and Collective Actions:
Implications of Social Change for Rural Well Being" (with K.P.
Wilkinson).
Paper presented at the International Rural Sociological World Congress, June, 1988; Bologna, Italy.
"New Hampshire Sociodemographics:
Changes and Trends."
Keynote presentation to the Yankee Chapter of the Public Relations Society of America, November, 1987;'Merrimack, NH.
"The Aerial Perspective: Remote Sensing as a Tool in Tracking-Land Use Changes" (with W.
Befort).
Selected. paper for:
presentation at the Planning for the Changing Rural Landscape of New England:. Blending' Theory and Practice, November,1987 7-Durham,.NH.
"New Hampshire Sociodemographic Trends and Issues."
Presentation in the Seminar Series of the Social Science Research Center and Institute for Policy Research, University 1
of New Hampshire, November, 1987; Durham, NH.
"R.& D and NH Policy:
An Initiative."
Presentation to ths New Hampshire Industrial Development Authority,
- November, 1987; Concord, NH.
1
'"The Rural Development Pendulum." Keynote presentation at the Fourth Annual Pennsylvania Rural Coalition Conference on Rural Development, State College, September,1987; University Park, PA.
" State Rural' Policy Initiatives: Their Time Has come," Paper
~'
presented at the Annual Meetings of The Rural Sociological Society, August, 1987; Madison, WI.
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a 10 Session Organizer and Participant " Panel:
Reflections On The Rural Life Study Series."
Paper presented at The Annual'
?
U Meetings of The Rural Sociological Society, August,>1987; i
Madison, WI.
I Session Organizer ;and Participant " Panel:
Rural Community Studies'."
Paper presented at The Annual Meeting of The Rural Sociological Society, August, 1987; Madison, WI.
(
" Industrial and-Community Changes in the Northeast as They Affect the Family."
Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of i
NEC 24, June, 1987; Ithaca, NY.
"The Rural Development Pendulum." Keynote presentation to the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, February, 1987; Washington, DC.
"New Hampshire Sociodemographic Trends and Issues: A Futuring Scenario."
Keynote presentation for the New Hampshire Cooperative Extension Service, In-Service Education Programs, February, 1987; North Conway, NH.
L
" Rural Land Use and Demographic Change in a Rapidly Urbanizing Environment."
Paper presented at the Sustaining Agriculture Near Cities Conference, November,1986; Boston, Massachusetts.
s
" Contemporary Issues in Northeastern Communities."
Invited presentation at the George D. Aiken Lecture Series, University of; Vermont, September, 1986; Burlington, Vermont.
" Environmental Variables in Models of Agriculture," (with M.
j.
Fischer).
Paper presented at' the Annual Meetings of The Rural
'=
Sociological Society, August, 1986; Salt Lake City, Utah.
" Examination of the Relational Structure of Community Actions Using Q-Analysis," (with C. Kassab).
Paper presented at the L
Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1986; Salt Lake City, Utah.
" Major Issues Facing Rural Communities," (with L.E. Swanson, Jr. )~.
Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1986; Salt Lake City, Utah.
y
" Identifying Community, Power Actors. and Structures. "
Invited-
/.'
presentation at RULE Leadership,.Inc., Workshop #4, March, 1986; State College, Pennsylvania.
Session Presider and Panelist, " Rural Community Studies," at the Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1985; Blacksburg, Virginia.
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" Agricultural Technology:-
Concerns for the Future II."
i Seminar presented' at the Annual Meetings-of the Rural L
Sociological Society, August, 1985;'Blacksburg, Virginia.
Session organizer and Participant, " Population Redistribution i
and Migration in New England."
_ Presented at the Annual Meetings: of.the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1985; Blacksburg, Virginia.
"The Demographics of Northern New England."
Invited presentation at Northern New England Rural Leadership Program,'
-i January, 1985; Bedford, New Hampshire.
"The Mature Region."
Invited presentation at The New England Rural Leadership Program, December, 1984; Fairlee, Vermont.
l "A Common Language in Community Development:
Relating Theory j
to Practice - A Critique."
Invited discussant comments for presentation at the Annual Meetings of the Community Development Society of America, August, 1984; Louisville, j
"An Examination of the Rural-Urban Continuum:
A Factor Analysis-of New Hampshire Municipalities,"
(with T.W.
Ilvento).
Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1983; Lexington,_ Kentucky.
Rountable Organizer, "The Changing Role and Function of Community in Modern Society."
Presented at the Annual J
Meetings of the Rural Sociological ~ Society, August, 1983; Lexington, Kentucky.
"The Cultural Component of Rurality:
Prevalence, Determin-ants, and Structural Stability Over a Decade-of Change," (with M.K.
Miller).
Paper presented at'the M.E. John Symposium, H
August, 1983; University Park, Pennsylvania.
'"Voluntarism in New Hampshire: Who Volunteers and Why." Paper.
presented at the workshop of the New England Resource, Conser-vation, and Development Project, September 1982 Waterville e
Valley, New Hampshire.
Section Chairman, "Results of the RSS Membership Survey. "
Papers presented at the Annual Moetings of the Rural Sociological
- Society, September, 1982; San Francisco, California.
Participant -in NE-129 Panel " Improving the Distribution of Socioeconomic Resources in Rural Areas:
Case Studies (Monroe and Lyman, N.H.)"
Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological
- Society, September, 1982; San Francisco, California.
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" Rural Industrialization:
A Model for Policymakers," _(with W.H. Chittenden).
Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological
- Society, September, 1982; San
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Francisco, California, "A _ Research Agenda for Rural Community ' and Agriculture:
Implications from the Turnaround," (with L.E.Swanson, Jr. ).
Paper' presented at the Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1981;'Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
" Community Activists-Apathists:
_A Brief Note," (with R.W.J.
H Smith and A.A.
Taranto).-
Paper presented at the Annual
' Meetings L of the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1981; Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
4 L
"A' Critical Evaluation of:
Beasley and Belyea, Rural-Urban Differences in Community Structure; and Christenson and Taylor, Normative and Situational Components of Satisfaction-
'I withc Common Public Services."
Discussant remarks for.
l-
" Community Studies Section," at the annual meetings of ' the L
Southern Sociological
- Society, April, 1981; Louisville, Kentucky.
')
" Interpreting the Turnaround for Policymakers," (with L. E..
Swanson, Jr.).
Paper presented at the 4th Annual Conference
-I:
on the Small City and Regional Community, March,1981; Stevens Point, Wisconsin.
" Tenure and Satisfaction as Indicators of
Attachment:
'A
-Reassessment," (with L.E. Swanson, Jr., and Rex-H. Warland).
D Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the Rural
-Sociological-Society, August, 1980; Ithaca, New York.
"Antiurbanism and Nonnetropolitan' Growth:
A Reevaluation,"
(with T.W. Ilvento). Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1980; Ithaca, New York.
"Who is Rural?
A Typological Approach to the Examination of Ruralism," (with M.K. Miller).
Paper presented at the Annual m
l Meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1980; Ithaca, New York.
a Discussant of section " Rural Development:
Domestic Issues" Q
at the Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1979; Burlington, Vermont.
L Discussant of section " Agriculture in Rural Development" at
.the Annual Meetings of the Rural Soci~ological Society, August, j
1979; Burlington, Vermont.
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"The Good Community and Moral Density: A Perspective." Paper
^
presented at the Annual' Meetings of the Rural Sociological b
Society, August, 1979; Burlington Vermont.
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" Retirement and Willingness to Move:
A ' Note, " (with L.E.
Swanson,. Jr.,
and R.H.. Warland).
Paper presented at the l'
Annual Meetings of the Northeast - Agricultural Economics Council, June, 1979; Newark, Delaware.
(
" Migration and Its Impact on the Nonmetropolitan Northeast,"
(with T.E. Steahr).
Invited paper prepared for the Northeast o __'
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- Agricultural Leadership Assembly, March, 1979;~ Cherry Hill, New Jersey.
" Migration to New Hampshire:
Preliminary Findings." _ Paper prepared for New Hampshire Situation and Trends, Supplement, 1979; A Basis for Program Development, Cooperative Extension Service, University of New Hampshire.
Discussant of
" Explanations of Social Indicator Differentials," Section 25, at the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1978; San Francisco, California.
" Critical Information for Community Development Policy.
Formulation: Absentee Ownership Considerations," (with B.E. -
i Lindsay).
Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the Community Development Society of America,
- August, 1978; Blacksburg, Virginia.
" Economic opportunities and the Willingness to Move: The Case of = Nonmetropolitan Pennsylvanians," (with L.E.
Swanson and R.H. Warland).
Paper presented at the-Annual' Meetings of.the Rural-Sociological Society, August, 1978; San Francisco, California.
j
" Socioeconomic Impacts on Agricultural Land Use Changes-in'the Northeast," (with D.E. Morris).
Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the ' Northeast Agricultural Economics Council, June, 1978; Durham, New Hampshire.
"An Exploration of Social Structure of the Nonmetropolitan Commun:.ty, " (with K.S.
Ham).
Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Sociological Association, September, 1977;-_ Chicago, Illinois.
" Community Structure and Interaction:
A Synthesized Model of Flood Insurance Adopters."
Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological' Society, September, 1977';
Madison, Wisconsin.
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i 14 Section Chairman, " Attitudes and Values in Small Communities,"-
i Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, September, 1977; Madison, Wisconsin.
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-Discussant of. " Rural-Values. and Consensus,"
in section:
" Rurality:. Tests of an Idea," at the Annual Meetings of the Rural Sociological Society, August, 1976; New York, New York.
" County as a Unit of Analysis:
Pennsylvania the Case.in Point,"--(with K.P. Wilkinson).
Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of.the Rural-Sociological Society, August, 1976; New 1
York, New York.
"A Note on Population Size. and community Differentiation,"
(with C.S. Stokes).
Presented at the Annual Meetings-of'the
' Rural Sociological Society,
- August, 1975; -San Francisco, California.
"Results of a Telephone Survey of Citizen Responses Related to Rural ' Development," Indiana University of Pennsylvania,
- Indiana, Pennsylvania, May, 1975.
L RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
' Extramural Funding:
Y
=.
A.' E.
Luloff,and
.J.C.
-Salloway, Co-principal investigators;
" Hazardous Waste / Manufacturing and Mortality in New Hampshire" Amount:
$ 4,150.00 Agency:
UNH Biomedical Research I~
Support Grant.
Time Period:
January 1, 1989 - March 31, 1989 A.E.
Lulof f and T.E. Steahr, Co-principal Investigators; " Labor-s Market Areas in New England" Amount:
$17,000.00
. Agency: Northeast Regional Center for
' Rural Development. Time Period: May.1,1988 - April 30,.1989 A. E., Lulof f and M.J. McGuire, Co-principal Investigators; " Land
(
Use Changes in Grafton County and the Squam Lake Watershed"'
L Amounts
$24,000.00 Agency:
New Hampshire Office of State Planning.
Time Period:
6/1/88 10/31/88 h
A.E. Luloff, R.T. Eckert, and D.W. Moore, Principal Investigators;
/
" Project North Country Future" Amount:
$106,588.00' Agency:
William Welsh Time Period:
4/1/88 - 12/1/88 A.E. Luloff, Principal Author; " Center for Rural Pennsylvania" Amount:
$500,000.00 Agency:
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Time. Period:
7/1/87 - 6/30/88 (included as part of A Rural Development Plan for Pennsylvania)
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- L 15 A.E.
Luloff, Principal Author; " Pennsylvania Data Base" Amount:
$200,000.00 Agency:
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Time Period:
7/1/87 - 6/30/88 (included as part of A Rural Development Plan for Pennsylvania)
A.E.
Luloff, Co-principal Investigator; "A Rural Development Plan for Pennsylvania" Amount:
$1,375,000.00 Agency:. Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Time Period 7/1/87 - 6/30/88 A.E. Luloff, Principal Investigator; "A National Rural Development Data Base for Policy Formation" Amount:
$45,000.00 Agency:
National Rural Electric j-Cooperative Association.
Time Period:
4/1/87 - 9/1/88 A.E. Luloff, Principal Author; "NE 141 Regional Research Project on Rural Development" l,
Amount:
$37,500.00 Agency:
CSRS, USDA Time Period:
1987 - 1991 A.E.
- Luloff, M.K.
- Miller, Co-principal Investigators;
" Industrialization, Ambient Air Pollution, and Death from Respiratory Diseases in the Northeastern United States."
Amount:
$10,000.00 Agency:
Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development.
Time Period 7/1/86
.6/30/87 A.E. Lulof f, L. A. Ploch, F.E. Schmidt, Co-principal Investigators;
-"Persistencies and' Changes in Socioeconomic Characteristics of Selected Northern New England Towns and Communities."'
Amount: $12,993.00 Agency:
Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development.
Time Period:
7/1/86 - 6/30/87 A.E. Luloff, Principal Investigator; " Rural People and Places:
A Symposium on Typologies."
Amount:
$15,000.00 Agency:
Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development.
Time' Period:
1/1/86 - 12/31/86 A.E.
- Leloff, T.E.
- Steahr, Co-principal Investigators; "The Structure and Impact of Population Redistribution in New England."
Amount $10,525.00 Agency:
Northeast Regional Center for Rural' Development.
Time Period:
6/1/85 - 4/1/86
\\
A.E.
- Luloff, T.E.. Steahr, Co-principal Investigators;
" Rural
}
Population Growth in New England."
Amount:
$8,016.00 Agency:
Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development.
Time Period:
9/1/85 - 5/31/86 P.H. Greenwood, A.E. Lulof f, Co-principal Investigators; " Title II Program Evaluation-(CETA) Project."
L' Amount:
$10,335.00 Agency:
Hillsborough County, New Hampshire, Prime Sponsor (CETA).
Time Period:
6/15/79 3/25/80.
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16 Additional Experience:-
,j Director, " Levels of Mortality and Economic / Social Structure of Counties in the United States." Regional Research Project (NE-149) funded by the Agricultural Experiment
- Station, Durham, New-Hampshire, 10/1/83 - 9/30/88.
Director, " Community and Population Trends in New Hampshire " State.
I Station Project (S-297) funded by the Agricultural Experiment Station, Durham, New Hampshire, 10/1/84 - 4/30/88.
Co-Director, " Land Use and Demographic Change in New: Hampshire."
State Station Project (S-307) funded by the Agricultural Experiment Station, Durham, New Hampshire, 10/1/84 - 9/30/88.
'l i
Director, " Improving the Distribution of Socio-Economic Resources in Rural Areas."
Regional Research Project (NE-129) funded by the Agricultural Experiment Station, Durham, New Hampshire, 10/1/79 -
9/30/83.
l
- Director,
" Impact of In and Out Migration and Population Redistribution 'in the Northeast."
Regional Research Project 1
(NE-119) funded by the Agricultural Experiment Station, Durham, New Hampshire, 10/1/78 - 9/30/83.
PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES AND HONORS Sigma Xi-l Alpha Kappa Delta 1
Ho-Nun-De-Kah
- Cornell College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Scholastic Honorary Member of:
the Community Development Society of America; the Rural Sociological Society; the Population Association of America; the Southwestern Social Science Association; the National Recreation and Park Asociation Service to Rural Sociological Society:
Membership Committee, 1979-80;
- Chairman, 1981-82:
Cochairperson Local-Arrangements Committee, Annual Meetings, Burlington, Vermont, 1979; Member of R.S.S.
Council-(1981-82, 1984-85); Editorial Referee for Rural Socioloay (1977 to present); Associate Editor of Rural Sociolony (1982-1985); Program Chairman, 1985
\\
)
Member of Community Development Society Journal and Editorial Committee, 1983-1986; Ad Hoc Accreditation Committee, 1984-86; Research Committee, 1984 to present Editorial Referee for Review of Public Data User Human Oraanization; Community Develonnent Society; Journal of the Northeastern Aaricultural Economics Council.
Associate Editor, New Encland Landscane, 1987 - present.
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Member of - the - Northeast. Rural Sociological Committee. (Farm Foundation)', - Vice ' Chairman,.1975; Secretary: of NEC-24 L
(Northeast Rural-Sociological Committee),
1979-81; 1984-1985; Vice-Chairman 1985-1987;
- Chairman, 1987-y present Secretary, NE-119 (Population Redistribution in the Northeast, Regional Research Group), 1979-81 Secretary, NE-149 (Levels of Mortality and Economic / Social
-Structure of Counties in the United States), 1986 Visiting -- Faculty, Department of l Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, The Pennsylvania State University, Summer,'1981 Community Development Program Coordinator, Institute 'of
' Natural' and Environmental Resources, Department of Resource Economics and Community Development, University i
of New Hampshire, 1979 to 1988.
.Co-Advisor of the 1979 UNH ocean Projects (TECH 697) Drew Memorial Award Winning Research Group "The Socioeconomic.
Response
of Coastal Communities to the Fisheries conservation and Management Act of 1976" Visiting Associate Professor of Rural Soci' ology, -Northeast-Regional Center'for Rural Development, The' Pennsylvania State University, January, 1986-December 1986 Faculty Development Grant, 1987i RECD,.UNH Faculty-Development Grant, 1985, RECD, UNH
-Faculty Summer Fellowship, 1984, RECD, UNH Faculty Merit Award, 1981, INER, UNH Faculty Improvement Award, 1980, INER, UNH r
l l
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v,w 18:
3 REFERENCES-Stan-L. Albrecht, Dean, Family and' Social Sciences, 990SWKT, Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah, 84602 Daryl J. ' Hobbs, Professor, University of Missouri, Department
~:
of Pural Sociology, 812 clark Hall, Columbia, MO, 65201 l
Michael K. Miller, Associate Professor of Community Health-and Family Medicine, Center for Health Policy Research, Box J-177, J.. Hillis Miller Health Center, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610 Thomas E.
. Steahr, Professor, University of Connecticut, Department of Agricultural. Economics and Rural Sociology, Storrs, CT 06268 l
Kenneth P.
Wilkinson, Professor,- The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural'
?
Sociology, 207 Weaver Building, University Park, PA.16802 l
s I
t 0
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.j 19-REFERENCES Robert ~ C.
Bealer,-
Professor, The Pennsylvania State' University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural-Sociology, 206 Weaver Building, University Park, PA 16802 Walter' Freeman, Professor, Division of Community Development, The Pennsylvania State University, S-203 Human Development
. Building, University Park, PA 16802 Michael K. Miller, Associate Professor of Community Health and Family Medicine, Center for Health Policy Research, Box J-177, J.
Hillis Miller Health Center, University of Florida,-
Gainesville, FL 32610 g
- Fred E. Schmidt, Associate Professor, University of Vermont, i
Departnant of Sociology, Burlington, VT 05401' Thomas E.
- Steahr, Professor, University of Connecticut, l
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, 4
Storrs,_C7 06268 n
l-C.. Shannon
- Stokes, Professor, The Pennsylvania State.
l University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural l
Sociology, 205B Weaver Building, University Park, PA 16802 Rex H. Narland, Professor, The Pennsylvania State University, l-Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, 204A-Weaver Building, University Park, PA 16802 1
r l
Kenneth P.
Wilkinson, Professor,- The Pennsylvania State.
University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural-Sociology, 207 Weaver Building, University Park, PA 16802
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20 CONSULTING ACTIVITIES New England Municipal Center i
.)
.New Mexico Municipal Association i
Massachusetts League of Municipalities Town Governments'of Somersworth, NH; Hamden, CT; Rocky Hill, CT; East Hartford, CT l Massachusetts Center for Rural-Studies State Executive Council of the YMCA, New Hampshire Deerfield Fair Association, New Hampshire i
Hillsborough County, NH, Prime Sponsor (CETA)
University of New-Hampshire Marine Advisory Program-North Country Resource Conservation and Development Project, Incorporated, New Hampshire New Hampshire Council of Aging New Hampshire Department of Highway Safety University;of New Hampshire Cooperative Extension Service
~
School Administrative Unit #44, New Hampshire Rockingham County Newspapers Southern New Hampshire Services Matthew Thornton Health Plan New England Rural Leadership Program
. Rochester, NH, Office of-Planning and Development New Hampshire Business and-Industry Association Commonwealth of Massachusetts
.