ML20092E211

Applicant Exhibit A-EP-15,consisting of 840416 Testimony of RM Glover,Jt Pugh,Pr Lunsford,Wm Mcswain,Be Phillips, Lw Broome & Ps Thomas on Emergency Planning Contentions 14 & 15

ML20092E211
Person / Time
Site:	Catawba
Issue date:	05/07/1984
From:	Broome L, Glover R, Kulash W, Lunsford P, Mcswain W, Phillips B, Pugh J, Thomas P AFFILIATION NOT ASSIGNED, DUKE POWER CO., GASTON COUNTY, NC, MECKLENBURG COUNTY, NC, NORTH CAROLINA, STATE OF, SOUTH CAROLINA, STATE OF, YORK COUNTY, SC
To:
References
A-EP-015, A-EP-15, OL, NUDOCS 8406220329
Download: ML20092E211 (250)

Text

m UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 00ggg}.

u BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD

'84 MM 24 P12:05

,,gic OF 3(Li L J, U0C6ETtMU & SEf'C In the Matter of ) BRANCH

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EUKE POWER COMPANY, et al.

) Docket Nos. 50-413 OG

) 50-414 O L.

(Catawba Nuclear Station, )

Units 1 and 2) )

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. APPLICANTS' TESTIMONY ON EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTIONS 14 AND 15 i

Duke Power Company (R.M. Glover)

Walter M. Kulash North Carolina (J.T. Pugh, III)

South Carolina (P.R. Lunsford, William M. McSwain)

Gaston County (Bob E. Phillips)

Mecklenburg County (Lewis Wayne Broome)

York County (Phillip Steven-Thomas)

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F 3 1 TESTIMONY OF DUKE POWER COMPANY 2 '(R.M. GLOVER) ON EMERGENCY 3 PLANNING CONTENTIONS 14/15 4 Q. HAS DUKE POWER COMPANY PROVIDED ANY ADDITIONAL MEANS 5 FOR INFORMING PARENTS, TEACHERS AND STUDENTS OF 6 ACTIONS TO BE TA!;EN IN A NUCLEAR-RELATED EMERGENCY AT 7 CATAWBA?

8 A. Yes. I directed that a special brochure be prepared.

9 Q. WERE YOU INVOLVED IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS 10 BROCHURE?

11 A. Yes. I established the basic information to be 12 provided in the brochure. I fe7t it necessary that l 13 we inform parents, teachers and students of the l

14 following:

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the specific shelter for their school 16 -

the role of the parents (i.e., refrain from 17 picking children up at school) 18 -

provide a general area map 19 Q. DOES THE BROCHURE ADDRESS THESE POINTS TO YOUR 20 SATISFACTION?

21 A. Yes.

22 Q. IS THIS BROCHURE REQUIRED BY NRC REGULATIONS OR l

23 REGULATORY GUIDANCE?

24 A. No.

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r 1 TESTIMONY OF WALTER M. KULASH 2 EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTIONS 14 AND 15 3 Q. INTERVENORS ALLEGE IN EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 4 14 THAT THE EVACUATION TIME STUDY PREPARED BY PRC 5 OVERESTIMATES ACTUAL TRAFFIC MOVEMENT BY A FACTOR OF 6 BETWEEN 3 AND 12. DO YOU AGREE? PLEASE EXPLAIN WHY 7 OR WHY NOT, AND PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR YOUR ANSWER.

8 A. No, I do not agree. The rates of flow of traffic 9 used in the PRC evacuation time study are not 10 overestimated. (A copy of the study, entitled 1

11 " Catawba Nuclear Station Evacuation Analysis / l

. 1

12 Evacuation Time Estimates," is included as Attachment l 13 A to my testimony on contentions 14 and 15.) The i 14 time study assumes a traffic flow rate of 1200 15 vehicles per lane per hour. This figure is based 16 upon a conservative (i.e., low) interpretation of 17 highway flow rates as set forth in the 1965 Highway 18 Capacity Manual, the definitive guideline on the 19 subject and one in general use by local, State and 20 Federal transportation planning agencies. There is 21 nothing unique about the Charlotte area and Rock Hill 22 which would indicate that-these flow rates should not 23 be used.

I 24 Moreover, the assertion that the time study 25 overestimates the traf fic flow rate by a facter of 26 between three and twelve cannot be reconciled l

I 1 arithmatically with another assertion made in the 2 contentions that the correct flow rate is 900 3 vehicles per hour. The time study uses a flow rate 4 of 1200 vehicles per hour, or 133 percent of the rate 5 of 900 vehicles per hour advocated in the contention.

6 This difference ( i . e ., , 133 percent) cannot be related 7 to the 300 to 1200 percent difference that would 8 reflect an overestimation by a factor of three to 9 twelve, as mentioned elsewhere in the contention.

10 Q. DO YOU ADOPT ATTACHMENT A AS PART OF YOUR TESTIMONY 11 FOR USE IN THIS PROCEEDING?

12 A. Yes.

13 Q. HOW DID YOU DERIVE THE FIGURE OF 1200 VEHICLES PER 14 LANE PER HOUR FROM THE HIGHWAY CAPACITY MANUAL?

15 A. The unadjusted value for hourly flow of traffic on a 16 single lane of surface highway (i.e., a non-17 interstate highway) is 1800 vehicles per lane per 18 hour. We adjusted this downward to allow a vehicle 19 headway of 3 seconds, which reflects a level of 20 traffic interruption that could be expected in an 21 evacuation.

22 Q. WHO COMPILED THE 1965 HIGHWAY CAPACITY MANUAL 7 23 A. The Transportation Research Board of the National 24 Academy of Sciences.

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1 Q. WOULD 'YOU SAY TH AT THIS MANU AL IS CONSIDERED THE MOST 2 AUTHORITATIVE SOURCE IN THIS COUNTRY FOR TRAFFIC RATE 3 FLOW ESTIMATES?

4 A. Yes. It is used by state transportation departments 5 in both North and South Carolina. It was the basis 6 for estimating capacity for most interstate highway 7 planning. It is supported by a large amount of 8 empirical research into traffic flow.

9 Q. INTERVENORS CITE DR. SHELDON PLOTKIN (SOUTHERN 10 CALIFORNIA FEDERATION OF SCIENTISTS) FOR THE 11 ASSERTION THAT A FLOW OF NO MORE THAN 900 VEHICLES 12 PER LANE PER HOUR SHOULD BE ASSUMED. DO YOU AGREE 13 WITH HIS ESTIMATE? PLEASE EXPLAIN YOUR ANSWER.

14 A. No. A conservative interpretation of the 1965 15 Highway capacity Manual, the definitive source of 16 this type of information, yields a figure of 1200 17 vehicles per lane per hour.

18 Q. PLEASE SUMMARIZE THE METHODOLOGY THAT PRC USED IN 19 ESTIMATING EVACUATION TIMES.

20 A. A summary of the methodology used in estimating 21 evacuation times is included as Attachment B to my 22 testimony on Contentions 14 and 15.

23 Q. WHAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE METHODOLOGY THAT PRC USED?

24 A. This methodology is based upon the approach suggested 25 by FEMA in Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654.

1 Q. DO YOU ADOPT ATTACHMENT B AS PART OF YOUR TESTidONY 2 FOR USE IN THIS PROCEEDING?

3 A. Yes.

4 Q. INTERVENORS FURTHER ALLEGE IN EPC 14 THAT: " TRAFFIC 5 FLOWS ARE FURTHER OVERESTIMATED BY FAILING TO ACCOUNT 6 FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE FROM 7 CHARLOTTE VIA I-77. ALL' OF THE STUDY'S ESTIMATES ARE 8 PREMISED ONLY ON ESTIMATES OF TRAFFIC FLOW WITHIN THE 9 EPZ. THEY FAIL TO ACCOUNT FOR BACKUPS CAUSED BY 10 EXTRA-EPZ CONGESTION, ESPECIALLY ON I-77 IN 11 CHARLOTTE." DO YOU AGREE WITH THESE ALLEGATIONS?

12 PLEASE EXPLAIN WHY OR WHY NOT.

13 A. No, I do not agree. PRC has performed two studies 14 related to evacuation of areas beyond the EPZ as 15 presently defined:

16 (1) We looked at the impact, on EPZ evacuation 17 traffic, of voluntary evacuation from the entire 18 Charlotte area. In this analysis, we tested various 19 combinations of voluntary evacuation extent and 20 notification times.

21 (2) We looked at evacuation times for two 22 expanded EPZs: (a) approximately the southwest one 23 third of Charlotte encompassing an area out to 17 24 miles from the Catawba Nuclear Station, and (b) the 25 entire city of Charlotte, extending 20-25 miles from 26 the Catawba Nuclear Station.

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1 Q. WHAT WERE THE FINDINGS IN THE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION 2 STUDY?

3 A. Voluntary evacuation could, under certain conditions, 4 hinder EPZ evacuation traffic on one route by 30 5 minutes. Such delay would occur only if more than 6 50% of the total charlotte population chose to 7 evacuate, and if such population prepared to evacuate 8 within 30 minutos of the time required by the EPZ 9 population.

10 Q. WHAT WERE THE FINDINGS IN THE EXPANDED EPZ STUDY?

11 A. For the southwest third of Charlotte, extending to 12 approximately 17 miles from the Catawba Nuclear 13 Station, an evacuation time of 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br />, 15 minutes is 14 estimated. The critical determinant of this time is 15 notification time and not traffic congestion. In 16 other words, any traffic congestion on evacuation 17 routes has dissipated by the time that all of the 18 population in the expanded EPZ is notified and 19 prepared.

20 For the entire city of Charlotte, extending to 20-25 21 miles from the Catawba Nuclear Station, an evacuation 22 time of approximately 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br /> is estimated.

23 0 INTERVENORS ALSO ARGUE IN EMERGENCY PLANNING 24 CONTENTION 14 THAT: "THE APPLICANT' S EVACU ATION TIME 25 ESTIMATES ERRONEOUSLY ASSUME QUICK RESPONSE BY SCHOOL 26 BUSES AND MULTIPLE SCHOOL BUS TRIPS. SCHOOL BUSES IN m

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1 SOUTH CAROLINA ARE DRIVEN BY HIGH SCHOOL KIDS. NO 2 PUBLIC OFFICIAL WOULD DARE TO SEND HIGH SCHOOL KIDS 3 INTO AN EVACUATION ZONE TO TRANSPORT THOSE WITHOUT 4 VEHICLES. TIME MUST BE ALLOTTED FOR FINDING 5 DRIVERS." CAN YOU COMMENT ON THESE STATEMENTS?

6 A. The time study does assume an immediate response by 7 those school buses which are located at schools at 8 the time of evacuation. There is no reason for not 9 assuming a " quick response" by these school buses, 10 which will be loaded up and driven out of the EPZ by 11 the student drivers as soon as possible.

12 Q. WHAT IS THE BASIS FOR YOUR ASSUMPTION THAT THERE WILL 13 BE A " QUICK RESPONSE" BY SCHOOL BUSES?

14 A. Existing county emergency response plans indicate ,

15 that there will be a quick response by the school 16 buses, given (1) the assumed rapid notification of 17 student bus drivers and (2) the fact that the buses 18 will be located at the same school as the drivers of 19 the buses. Student drivers will leave the EPZ 20 immediately after loading the buses with students.

21 Q. DOES THE STUDY ASSUME AN IMMEDIATE RESPONSE FROM 22 THOSE SCHOOLS WHERE NO SCHOOL BUSES AND NO STUDENT 23 BUS DRIVERS ARE LOCATED AT THE TIME OF NOTIFICATION?

24 A. No. The time estimates do not assume immediate 25 evacuation of schools at which no bus is located at 26 the time of notification. These schools would be

1 evacuated either when: (1) a bus and student driver 2 arrive directly from the school attended by the 3 driver, or (2) a bus and driver arrive from outside 4 the EPZ. No student driver is assumed to make a 5' return trip into the EPZ for evacuation of 6 transportation dependent people. It was also assumed 7 that student drivers will make only a single trip 8 (one-way) out of the EPZ. (I understand that the 9 regular student drivers in York County will be used 10 to evacuate the schools even when a second trip is 11 required. Thus, the study is conservative in its 12 estimates of the evacuation of the schools.)

13 Q. DOES THE STUDY TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME THAT WILL 14 BE NEEDED FOR NON-STUDENT BUS DRIVERS TO REACH THE 15 BUSES FOR EVACU ATION OF THE TRANSPORTATION-DEPENDENT 16 POPULATION?

17 A. Yes.

18 Q. ARE THERE AN ADEQUATE NUMBER OF SCHOOL BUSES TO 19 REMOVE THE SCHOOL POPULATION IN GASTON, YORK AND-20 MECKLENBURG COUNTIES?

21 A. Yes.

22 Q. WHAT IS THE BASIS FOR YOUR ANSWER?

23 A. PRC has conducted a study entitled " Adequacy of 24 Planning for School Population-Evacuation / Catawba 25 Nuclear Station. Emergency Planning Zone." A copy of 26 this study is included as Attachment C to my

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1 testimony on contentions 14/15. This study '

2 determined that an adequate number of buses exists to 3 complete the evacuation in less than 2 trips per 4 vehicle in each county.

5 Q. DO YOU ADOPT ATTACHMENT C AS PART OF YOUR TESTIMONY 6 FOR USE IN THIS PROCEEDING?

7 A. Yes.

8 Q. INTERVENORS ALSO ARGUE THAT THE STUDY "MAKES NUMEROUS 9 ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING WORK AND LIVING HABITS WHICH 10 ARE APPARENTLY MADE UP OUT OF WHOLE CLOTH." CAN YOU' 11 COMMENT ON THIS ASSERTION?

12 A. The bases for the aseumptions made on work and living 13 habits are set forth in a study prepared by PRC 14 entitled " Assumptions Underlying Departure Times for 15 Evacuation of the Catawba Nuclear Station Emergency 16 Planning Zone." A copy of this study is included as ,

17 Attachment D to my testimony on Contentions 14/15.

18 Q. CAN YOU SUMMARIZE THE APPROACH U AKEN IN THIS STUDY TO 19 SIMULATE WORK AND LIVING HABITS OF THE EPZ 20 POPULATION?

21 A. Yes. The total time required for preparing to 22 evacuate is derived by combining-times for a series 23 of sub-activities, estimated on the basis of: (1)

( 24 requirements of NUREG-0654; (2) time and motion l

25 analyses:-(3) travel time / speed analyses. In the 26 case of some activities, a maximum time was i

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1 established. Evacuees requiring longer preparation 2 times than such maximum values cannot reasonably be 3 considered as cooperating with the evacuation order, 4 and the time required to secure their cooperation 5 cannot be considered as an element in the evacuation 6 times for the cooperating population.

, 7 Q. DO YOU ADOPT ATTACHMENT D AS PART OF YOUR TESTIMONY 8 FOR USE IN THIS PROCEEDING?

9 A. Yes.

10 Q. EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 14 TURTHER ALLEGES 11 THAT: "THE EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES SHOULD BE BASED 12 ONLY UPON WORST CASE CONDITIONS, RATHER THAN BEST 13 CASE CONDITIONS. THE APPLICANT'S STUDY IS FAR TOO 14 CPTIMISTIC IN ASSUMING THAT WORST CASE CONDITIONS 15 WILL REQUIRE ONLY 156 PERCENT OF THE TIME OF BEST

, 16 CASE CONDITIONS."DO YOU AGREE THAT EVACUATION TIME 17 ESTIMATES SHOULD BE BASED ONLY UPON WORST CASE-18 CONDITIONS?

19 A. No. Worst case conditions would apply only a very 20 small percentage of the times during which accidents 21 might occur, therefore their-usefulness in guiding a 22 proper protective response is limited. There is an 13~ overwhelming probability that r.ny accident weuld 24 occur during the time periods' defined as " normal" or

- l 25 - " adverse weather" as defined 11n Appendix 4 to NUREG-- )

26 '0654. i l

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l 1 In addition, basing emergency management 2 decisions on scenarios much worse than expected is 3 dangerous. It could lead to advising people to stay l 4 home when evacuation is actually safe. Moreover, it 5 is not possible to base the evacuation time estimates 6 on a worst case analysis; no matter how far-fetched 7 the conditions one assumes in the analysis, it is 8 always possible to assume still worse conditions that 9 would result in still longer evacuation times. Thus, 10 no time estimate could properly be identified as 11 worst case. County plans make provisions for 12 emergency response under various " worst case" 13 situations. In some instances, evacuation may not 14 even be a recommended protective response.

15 Q. DOES THE STUDY ASSUME ONLY "BEST CASE CONDITIONS," AS 16 INTERVENORS CONTEND?

17 A. No. As set forth in FEMA requirements, the time 18 study provides estimates based upon both normal and 19 adverse weather conditions. I would not equate 20 either one of these scenarios with "best case 21 conditions." on the contrary, both assumed 22 conditions are less optimistic and represent the 23 "most probable" case.

l l 24 Q. DO YOU AGREE THAT THE STUDY IS TOO OPTIMISTIC IN l

25 ASSUMING.THAT " WORST CASE CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE 26 ONLY 156% OF THE TIME OF BEST CASE CONDITIONS"?

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1 A. No. The adverse weather condition evaluated in this I

2 study is by definition bast upon regularly recurring 3 severe weather, which we interpret as snow and ice 4 conditions. Under such conditions, empirical studies 5 have indicated that highway capacity is reduced to 6 60% of that under normal weather conditions. We have 7 adopted this value (i.e., 60% of normal weather 8 capacity). This is the basis for the conclusion that 9 worst case conditions will require only 156% of the 10 evacuation time assumed for best case conditions.

11 Furthermore, it should be nc:. that in extreme 12 weather situations, many factors actually favor an 13 improved emergency response, including evacuation, 14 since (1) schools are dismissed: (2) attendance at 15 work is curtailed drastically; (3) local public

, 16 safety agencies (police, fire) are at a constant 17 state of increased readiness; and (4) increased 18 fractions of the area population are tuned in to 19 radio and television broadcasts.

20 0 INTERVENORS ALSO CRITICIZE THE TIME STUDY FOR 21 " NAIVELY" FAILING TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT PARENTS FIRST-22 GOING TO THE SCHOOLS'TO PICK UP THEIR CHILDREN BEFORE i i 23 EVACUATING. CAN YOU COMMENT ON THIS CRITICISM 7 l

24 A.- Parents will be instructed both beforehand'and during 25 any emergency not to attempt to. pick up their 26 children at school. There is no basis for projecting

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1 that thit directive will be massively disobeyed.

2 Time estimates do not attempt to . reflect widespread 3 disregard of evacuation orders in other areas and 4 this policy is extended to behavior of parents. l 5 Howevre r , our evacuation estimates do recognize 6 that some parents will attempt to pick up their 7 children at school. Traffic attempting to go to 8 schools te pick up children is one of many factors 9 that is reflected in the reduction in evacuation flow 10 rates assuned in the study from the 1800 vehicles per 11 hour rate given in the Highway capacity Manual to the 12 adopted value of 1200 vehicles per hour.

13 Q. INTERVENORS ASSERT IN EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 14 14 THAT THE GTUDY " DISMISSES THE MAJOR IMPACT OF THE 15 PRESENCE OF LARGE TRANSIENT POPULATIONS AT CAROWINDS 16 AMUSEMENT PARIT. AND HERITA3E USA. THOSE POPULATIONS

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i 17 WILL TAKE LONGER TO EVACUATE THAN THE' STUDY ASSUMES 18 AND WILL CO-COMGEST I-77 WITH RESIDENT TRAFFIC."

19 DOES THE EVACULTION TIME STUDY CONSIDER THE IMPACT OF 20 CAROWINDS AND HERITAGE USA?

21 A. Yes. ,

i 22 Q. HOW WAS THE IMPACT OF CAROWINDS DETERMINED?

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23 A. The Carowinds and Heritage USA populations were the 24 subject of a detailed study by PRC. A copy of this 25 ~ study is included as Attachment E to my testimony on 26 Contentions 14/15.

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l 1 Q. WHAT DID THE ANALYSIS OF THE PROJECTED CAROWINDS AND l

2 HERITAGE USA POPULATION CONCLUDE? l l

3 A. This study established that this transient population i 4 can be evacuated without further lengthening the t

5 projected maximum evacuation times for resident I i

6 traffic on any route, including I-77 used by these 7 transient populations. The time study was 8 conse rva tive (i.e., tending toward longer times) in 9 that it projected maximum Carowinds and Heritage USA 10 populations for the " critical" time period for 11 working hours during the school year. In fact, the 12 transient populations at Carowinds and Heritage USA 13 are at a minimum during these periods.

14 Q. WHERE DID YOU ASSUME THAT THE TRAFFIC FROM CAROWINDS 15 AND HERITAGE USA WOULD GO?

16 A. The study assumes that Carowinds traffic would exit 17 in 3 lanes. One lane will go west and evacuate on 18 State Route 49. Two lanes will go east and evacuate 19 on I-77.

20 All Heritage USA traf fic will exit onto U.S. 21.

21 Most of this traffic will be directed north to Routes 22 SC 74, NC 51 and US 521. The remainder will be 23 directed south on US 21 and SC 160.

24 Both Heritage USA and Carowinds have their own

, 25 emergency response procedures. These procedures 26 contemplate the use of Carowinds and Heritage USA 1

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1 employees to direct traffic within the respective 2 sites. Once evacuating traffic clears the site, 3 traf fic control would be performed by the N.C. and 4 S.C. state highway patrols, county sheriff deputies 5 or other traffic control officers.

6 Q. WHAT IS THE BASIS FOR YOUR CONCLUSION THAT THE 7 EVACUATION OF THESE POPULATIONS WILL NOT INCREASE  !

8 OVERALL EVACUATION ESTIMATES?

9 A. There is adequate capacity on the highways involved 10 -- specifically, I-77, SC 160, US 21, NC 51 and US 11 521 -- to permit the evacuation of Heritage USA and 12 Carowinds population without increasing the maximum 13 time for any evacuee (resident or transient) beyond 3 14 hours and 25 minutes on any of these routes.

15 Q. DO YOU ADOPT ATTACHMENT E AS PART OF YOUR TESTIMONY 16 FOR USE IN THESE PROCEEDINGS?

17 A. Yes.

18 Q. EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 14 FURTHER ALLEGES 19 THAT: "A MORE REALISTIC CSTIMATE OF EVACUATION TIME 20 FOR THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION IN THE COUTH CAROLINA 21 PIEDMONT IS THAT EVACUATION WILL REQUIRE A MINIMUM OF 22 33 HOURS, ASSUMING A CONSERVATIVE 600 23 VEHICLES / LANE / HOUR VEHICLE TRAVEL TIME. APPLICANTS 24 ARE, THUS, UNABLE TO PROVIDE REASONABLE ASSURANCE OF 25 BEING ABLE T3 AVOID O( MEANINGFULLY MINIMIZE

l 1- RADIATION EXPOSURE IN THE EVENT OF A RADIATION 2 RELEASE AT CATAWBA." DO YOU AGREE WITH INTERVENORS' 3 TIME ESTIMATE?

4 A. No.

I 5 Q. WHY NOT?

6 A. No ret onable combination of traffic flow rates, 7 street congestions, or traffic contingencies could 8 yield Intervenors' estimated 33 hour3.819444e-4 days <br />0.00917 hours <br />5.456349e-5 weeks <br />1.25565e-5 months <br /> eveuation time.

9 The only possible explanation for times of this 10 magnitude would appear to be extreme assumptions 11 regarding the behavior of evacuees, particularly with 12 regard to the times needed to leave home.

13 Moreover, it should be noted that the flow rate 14 of 600 vehicles per hour per lane is at variance with 15 the suggested flow rate of 900 vehicles per hour 16 suggested in the second paragraph of this contention.

i 17 Both suggested flow rates are at large variance with 18 standards contained in the 1965 Highway capacity 19 Manual, the ITE Traffic Engineering Handbook, and 20 other standard sources of road capacity.

l 21 Q. FINALLY, EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 14 ALLEGES 22 THAT APPLICANTS' EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FAIL TO 4

23 SATISFY NUREG-0654. ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH NUREG-24 0654?

25 A. Yes.

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1 1 Q. DO YOU BELIEVE THE TIME ESTIMATES USED SATISFY THE 2 REQUIREMENTS OF NUREG-0654?

3 A. Yes.

4 Q. IN EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 15, INTERVENORS 5 CRITICIZE APPLICANTS' ESTIMATE THAT 10% OF FAMILIES 6 ARE WITHOUT VEHICLES E:TiING PART OF THE DAY. WHAT IS 7 THE BASIS FOR THIS ESTIMATE?

i A. PRC conducted a census on the number of families 9 within the EPZ who are without a car during the day.

10 This study confirmed the validity of the figures used 11 in the PRC Voorhees evacuation time studies. A 12 summary of this census study, entitled " Catawba 13 Nuclear Station Evacuation Analysis / Transport-14 Dependent Population," is included as Attachment F 'o .

15 my testimony on Contentions 14 and 15.

16 Q. DO THE RESULTS OF THIS CENSUS CALL INTO QUESTION ANY 17 OF THE TIME ESTIMATES OR CONCLUSIONS CONTAINED IN THE 18 OTHER PRC VOORHEES STUDIES CONDUCTED FOR THE CATAWBA 19 PLANT?

20 A. No.

l 21 Q. DO YOU ADOPT ATTACHMENT F AS PART OF YOUR TESTIMONY 22 FOR USE IN THESE PROCEEDINGS?

I 23 A. Yes.

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1 Q. IN CONDUCTING ITS EVACUATION TIME STUDY, DID PRC TAKE 2 INTO ACCOUNT THE EVACU ATION OF NURSING HOMES, DAY 3 CARE CENTERS, AND HOSPITALS LOCATED IN THE TEN-MILE 4 PLUME EPZ?

5 A. Yes. PRC examined the county evacuatier. plans for 6 nursing homes, day care centers, and hc.pitals.

7 These were all accounted for in making the evacuation 8 time estimates.

9 O. DID THE TIME STUDY TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIME WHICH 10 WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR BACKUP BUS DRIVERS TO GET TO 11 THE SCHOOL BUSES AT NIGHT ASSUMING THAT NOT ALL OF 12 THE BUSES WOULD BE AT A CENTRAL MOTOR POOL?

13 A. No. Our time estimates conservatively assumed a 14 day *ime evacuation.

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1 TESTIMONY OF THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA 2 (J.T. PUGH, III) ON 3 EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTIONS 14 AND 15 4 Q. DOES THE STATE PLAN PROVIDE INFORMATION REGARDING

'5 THIS CONTENTION?

6 A. Yes, Part 1, figure 16 and Part 1 Section IV.E. of 7 the N.C. State Plan.

8 Q. ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE EVACUATION TIME STUDY AND 9 ITS SUPPLEMENTS PREPARED BY PRC VOORHEES FOR 10 APPLICANTS?

11 A. Yes.

12 Q. HOW, IF AT ALL, WOULD STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS USE 13 THESE STUDIES? WOULD THEY USE THEM IN DECIDING 14 BETWEEN EVACUATION AND OTHER PROTECTIVE ACTION?

15 A. Yes. The time factors indicated could very possibly 16 weight the decision to order evacuation or designate 17 shelter in place.

18 Q. GIVEli THE ANSWER TO THE PRECEDING QUESTION, IS IT 19 MORE IMPORTANT AND USEFUL TO YOU TO HAVE A RANGE OF 20 REALISTIC ESTIMATES OF EVACUATION TIMES FOR A VARIETY 21 OF NORMAL AND ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS OR, AS 22 INTERVENORS CONTEND, SHOULD SUCH STUDIES BE EASED ON 23 WORST- CASE ASSUMPTIONS?

24 A. A range of normal and adverse conditions would be 25 most useful. Worst case conditions are difficult to 26 define in that some other problem could always be 27 added in to make the situation worse.

28 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN YOUR ANSWER. i

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i 1 A. Ideally, the decision maker should have realistic 2 estimates of evacuation times for the normal and poor 3 travel conditions to base a decision on. I would 4 like to note that with regard poor travel conditions, 5 we would need a reasonable adverse weather condition, 6 such as a snow storm.

7 Q. HAVE YOU COMPARED THE TRAFFIC FLOW RATES USED IN 8 APPLICANTS' STUDIES TO VALUES USED OR OBSERVED BY 9 STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS FOR OTHER PURPOSES?

10 A. Yes. Flow rates were compared with the 1983 11 hurricane eva cua tion, a study of Brunswick County by 12 the N.C. Department of Transportation.

13 Q. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS OF THE COMPARISON?

14 A. A comparison review indicates the PRC Voorhees study 15 to be very similar to the DOT study. This is evident 16 by the fact that the PRC Voorhees study is based on 17 an average of 1,200 vehicles per lane per hour, 18 whereas the DOT used an average of 1,000 vehicles per 19 lane per hour. However, the DOT study was based on l 20 adverse weather conditions. Both studies are 21 consistent with the Highway Capacity Manual.

22 (Highway Capacity Manual Highway Research Board, 23 Special Report 87, National Academy of Sciences, 24 National Research Council, Washington, D. C., 1965.)

25 Voorhees assumes 1,200 vehicles per hour under normal 26 road conditions and approximately 700 vehicles per

1 hour under. worst case conditions. Thus, PRC's 2 estimate is conservative when compared to 1,000 3 vehicles per hour used in the DOT study for adverse 4 weather conditions.

5 Q. WITH REGARD TO INTERVENORS' ALLEGATION REGARDING THE 6 ADVERSE IMPACT THE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF CHARLOTTE 7 MIGHT HAVE ON THE EVACUATION OF THE EPZ, DO YOU 8 BELIEVE THAT IT IS NECESSARY TO PROVIDE FURTHER 9 MEASURES FOR PROTECTIVE ACTION WITHIN THE CHARLOTTE 10 CITY LIMITS SUCH AS THE INSTALLATION OF SIRENS AND 11 THE PREPARATION OF SPECIFIC PLANS AND PROCEDURES WITH 12 REFERENCE TO A POSSIBLE RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY AT 13 CATAWBA 7 14 A. No. We believe the plan as written meets the scope 15 and requirements of NUREG 0654. Any expansion or 16 contraction of the existing EPZ is beyond the 17 expertise of this office.

18 Q. DO YOU FEEL THAT THE EPZ IS ADEQUATE TO PROTECT THE 19 PEOPLE OF GASTON AND MECKLENBURG COUNTIES WITHIN THE 20 TEN-MILE EPZ?

21 A. Yes.

22 Q. Do YOU THINK THAT TO PROTECT ADEQUATELY THE NORTH 23 CAROLINIANS WITHIN THE EPZ IT IS NECESSARY TO INCLUDE 24 RESIDENTS OF CHARLOTTE IN THE EPZ?

e 1 A. No. I feel that our plan will adequately take care 2 of our citizens. The, proximity of Charlotte should 3 not affect the situation.

4 Q. PLEASE STATE WHETHER YOU HAVE CONSIDERED THE MATTER 5 OF PARENTS " GOING FIRST TO THE CHILDREN'S SCHOOLS TO 6 PICK UP THEIR CHILDREN BEFORE EVACUATION," WHETHER 7 YOU PLAN TO ENCOURAGE OR DISCOURAGE SUCH PRACTICES, 8 WHAT DEGREE OF SUCCESS YOU ANTICIPATE IN REGARD TO 9 ENCOURAGING OR DISCOURAGING PARENTS FROM DOING THIS, 10 AND WHAT YOU ANTICIPATE THE PRACTICAL RESULT WILL BE.

11 A. It is the State's policy to call for an early 12 evacuation of the schools. The EBS message would 13 encourage the parents not to come to the school and 14 would advise them where to pick up their children.

15 As a practical matter, we cannot eliminate this 16 practice. However, we do not feel it will have any 17 major impact.

18 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW PERSONS WITHOUT THEIR OWN MEANS OF i

19 TRANSPORTATION WILL BE ABLE TO SECURE TRANSPORTATION 20 IN THE EVENT OF AN ORDER TO EVACUATE. PLEASE INCLUDE 21 IN YOUR RESPONSE BOTH ANTICIPATORY MEASURES AND 22 MEASURES TO BE TAKEN AT THE TIME OF AN EVACUATION AND 1

23 INCLUDE ARRANGEMENTS AS TO LOCATIONS, ETC., FOR 1 i

f 24 PICKING UP SUCH PERSONS.

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f

1 A. We anticipate that most people without their own 2 means of transportation will be able to secure 3 transportation from neighbors or friends. Planning 4 includes the establishment of transportation pick-up 5 points supported by publicly controlled buses.

6 Selected pick-up points will be included in the 7 appropriate EBS broadcast.

8 Q. PLEASE DESCRIBE THE ARRANGEMENTS THAT WILL BE MADE 9 FOR EVACUATING HOSPITALS AND NURSING HOMES IN THE EPZ 10 SHOULD SUCH BE REQUIRED.

11 A. State emergency medical services (EMS) has 12 established agreements with all rescue squads and 13 ambulance services to respond for evacuation of 14 threatened hospitals and nursing homes.

15 Q. PLEASE STATE WHETHER ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE MADE TO 16 PROVIDE TRANSPORTATION FOR CHILDREN AT DAY CARE 17 FACILITIES AND IF SO, THE EXTENT OF THE NEED AND HOW 18 IT WILL BE MET.

19 A. Our planning would provide publicly controlled 20 transportation for children at day care facilities 21 utilizing the staff at those facilities for the l

22 control and comfort of the children. Consideration i

23 would also be given to asking the Division of 24 Facility Services to provide a medical technician to

, 25 support the evacuation if deemed necessary.

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1 Q. PLEASE STATE WHETHER YOU AGREE THAT SUBSTANTIAL 2 NUMBERS OF PERSONS WILL REFUSE TO EVACUATE EVEN 3 THOUGH ADVISED OR ORDERED TO DO SO BY COGNIZANT 4 PUBLIC OFFICIALS.

5 A. I do not agree.

6 Q. ARE ADEQUATE BUSES AVAILABLE TO MOVE SCHOOL Ch!LDREN 7 WITHOUT MULTIPLE BUS PICKUPS?

8 A. Yes. However, one lift evacuation will require 9 additional buses from outside the EPZ. Mecklenburg 10 county has 51 buses on site at schools (2,818 school 11 population) within the EPZ. One lift evacuation will

12 require at least 16 additional buses which are l

13 available a t South Mecklenburg High Schcul 14 approximately 15 minutes away. Gaston County has 15 three buses on site within the EPZ. Evacuation of 16 the W.A. Bess Elementary School's 464 students and

17 faculty will require at least an additional eight

! 18 buses. These eight buses are programmed to come from i

19 Ashbrook High School outside the EPZ, which is less-l 20 than 10 minutes away.

I

e 1 TESTIMONY OF THE STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA 2 (W.M. MCSWAIN AND P.R. LUNSFORD) ON 3 EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 14 AND 15 4 Q. DO THE STATE PLANS CONTAIN INFORMATION REGARDING THIS 5 CONTENTION?

6 A. Yes, Parts IV.B.6 and IV.B.8 of the S.C. Site-7 Specific Plan.

8 Q. ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE EVACU ATION TIME STUDY 9 PREPARED BY PRC VOORHEES FOR THE APPLICANTS 7 10 A. Yes. (WM, PL) 11 Q. DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THE TRAFFIC FLOW ESTIMATES USED 12 IN THE TIME STUDY ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC?

13 A. I don't have any evidence m3self that would cause me 14 to disbelieve the estimates. (PL, WM) 15 Q. HAVE YOU COMPARED THE TRAFFIC FLOW RATES USED IN 16 APPLICANTS' STUDIES TO THE VALUES USED OR OBSERVED BY 17 THE STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS FOR OTHER PURPOSES?

18 A. No we have not, but during the development of the 19 evacuation time study there were a lot of meetings 20 that State and local officials were involved in. In 21 each case, representatives of the State of South 22 Carolina Highway Patrol and local law enforcement 23 were present and involved in these meetings to inject 24 their poines of view. I presume they agreed with the 25 time estimates and traffic flow estimate since I 26 heard no dissenting views presented at those

1 meetings. These are the people that deal with it on 2 a daily basis and my belief is that if they had an 3 objection they would have voiced it. (PL, WM) 4 Q. ARE YOU SATISFIED THEN THAT THE TRAFFIC FLOW 5 ESTIMATES USED IN THE APPLICANTS TIME STUDY ARE 6 ADEQUATE BASED UPON INPUT PROVIDED BY THE HIGHWAY 7 PATROL AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN THOSE MEETINGS?

8 A. Yes. (PL, WM) 9 Q. HOW, IF AT ALL, WOULD THE STATE USE THESE STUDIES?

10 A. Our expert in the Department of Health and 11 Environmental Control uses those figures to decide 12 'whether to recommend evacua-ion or shelter. (PL) 13 Q. GIVEN THAT ANSWER, IS IT MORE IMPORTANT AND USEFUL TO 14 YOU TO HAVE A RANGE OF REALISTIC ESTIMATES OF 15 EVACUATION TIMES FOR A VARIETY OF NORMAL AND ADVERSE 16 WEATHER CONDITIONS, OR, AS INTERVENORS CONTEND, 17 SHOULD SUCH STUDIES BE BASED ON THE WORST CASE 18 ASSUMPTION?

19 A. In our view, as the persons responsible for emergency 20 planning for the State of South Carolina, it is 21 better to have a wide range of estimates based on 22 varying conditions rather than being constrained to 23 do all of your decision-making based on a worst case l 24 estimate. (PL, WM) l l l l

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1 Q. WOULD PARTI AL OR COMPLETE EVACUATION OF CHARLOTTE 2 SERIOUSLY AFFECT THE ABILITY TO EVACUATE SOUTH 3 CAROLINA RESIDENTS FROM THE EXISTING EPZ?

4 A. My view is that it would not since we are planning on 5 doing the sheltering in South Carolina for South 6 Carolina citizens. (PL, WM) 7 Q. DO YOU FEEL THAT SOUTHWEST CHARLOTTE NEEDS TO BE 8 INCLUDED IN THE EPZ IN ORDER TO PROTECT EMERGENCY 9 RESPONSES BY SOUTH CAROLINA EPZ RESIDENTS?

10 A. No. I feel the federal regulations are specific in 11 so far as what the emergency planning zone is and 12 that it is sufficient in this instance. That zone 13 would be about ten railes. I have no evidence it 14 would not be adequate. (PL, WM) 15 Q. EXPLAIN THE EXTENT TO WHICH SCHOOL BUSES WILL BE OR 16 MAY BE USED AS PART OF THE EVACUATION PLAN.

17 A. We rely very heavily on school buses to assist in the 18 evacuation. There are plans within York County and 19 to the best of my knowledge each school district has 20 its own plan for evacuation utilizing the buses. (PL, 21 WM) 22 Q. THE INTERVENORS STATE THAT APPLICANTS' EVACUATION 23 TIME ESTIMATES ERRONEOUSLY ASSUME QUICK RESPONSE BY 24 SCHOOL BUSES AND MULTIPLE SCHOOL BUS TRIPS; THAT THE 25 SCHOOL BUSES IN SOUTH CAROLINA ARE DRIVEN BY HIGH

26 SCilOOL STUDENTS

THAT NO PUBLIC OFFICIAL WOULD DARE

1 TO SEND HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS INTO AN EVACUATION ZONE 2 TO TRANSPORT THOSE WITHOUT VEHICLES. DO YOU AGREE 3 WITH THIS STATEMENT?

4 A. High school student drivers would be used for 5 multiple trips only to pick up other students. The ,

6 plan is not to use students to drive the buses for 7 other purposes. Rather, York County's plan provides c

8 for volunteer firemen to man the buses for such 9 trips. (WM) 10 Q. PLEASE STATE WHETHER YOU HAVE CONSIDERED THE 11 POSSIBILITY OF PARENTS GOING FIRST TO THEIR 12 CHILDRENS' SCFOOL TO PICK UP THEIR CHILDREN BEFORE 13 EVA CU ATION . DO YOU PLAN TO ENCOURAGE OR DISCOURAGE 14 SUCH PRACTICES? WHAT DEGREE OF SUCCESS DO YOU 15 ANTICIPATE WITH REGARD TO ENCOURAGING OR DISCOURAGING 16 PARENTS FROM DOING THIS? WHAT DO YOU ANTICIPATE THE 17 PRACTICAL RESULT WILL BE?

18 A. We have considered at length the problem of parents 19 going first to the children's schools to p..ck up 20 their children. We have gone along with discouraging 21 it. We plan to continue to discourage it, although I 22 don't think we will have one hundred percent success.

23 I do think the practical results would be that most 24 of the parents, once they have been educated about 25 what is going on, will abide by those instructions.

26 (PL, WM) -

1 Q. IN THE EVENT COUNTIES CALL ON YOU TO PROVIDE 2 ASSISTANCE IN EVACUATING INDIVIDUALS WITHOUT 3 TRANSPORTATION ABILITIES, WOULD YOU BE PREPARED TO 4 PROVIDE SUCH ASSISTANCE?

5 A. Yes. We could do it from several courses: by taking 6 school buses out of other counties; by using National 7 Guard trucks; and by asking for volunteers. (PL, WM) 8 Q. DOES YOUR EXPERIENCE INDICATE THAT SUCH ASSISTANCE 9 WOULD BE FORTHCOMING?

i i 10 A. Yes, based on the recent experience of the tornado 11 where the one area that I was working in called for 12 volunteers for rescue squads, and volunteer firemen-13 we got far more than we needed. I presume some 14 rescue squads come with their vehicles. A lot of 15 vehicles are equipped to handle non-ambulatory 16 patients in hospitals. (WM, PL) 17 Q. WITH RESPECT TO PATIENTS IN HOSPITALS AND INDIVIDUALS 10 IN NURSING HOMES, WOULD THE STATE BE PREPARED TO t

I 19 PROVIDE ASSISTANCE IF REQUESTED TO MOVE SUCH l

20 NONAMBULATORY INDIVIDUALS?

21 A. Yes, but I don't believe unless it was on a very

, 22 large scale that the state resources would have to be l

23 used because York' County has mutual aid agreements 24 with the surrounding counties and the rescue squad I

! 25 effort is very well organized throughout the state in l

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1 that area. I believe if the county put the word out l l

2 to its surrounding counties it wculd get sufficient l 3 help. (PL, WM) 4 Q. IN YOUR OPINION, WOULD YOU AGREE THAT A SUBSTANTIAL 5 NUMBER OF PERSONS WOULD REPUSE TO EVACUATE EVEN 6 THOUGH ADVISED OR ORDERED TO DO SO BY COGNIZANT 7 PUBLIC OFFICIALS 7 8 A. Having been born and raised in the Charlotte area and 9 knowing a little about the people who live there I 10 believe they are sensible and that the great majority 11 of them would follow the instructions that they were 12 given. (PL) w

1 TESTIMONY OF GASTON COUNTY 2 (BOB E. PHILLIPS) ON i 3 EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTIONS 14 AND 15 4 Q. DOES YOUR COUNTY PLAN CONTAIN INFORMATION RELATED TO l

5 THIS CONTENTION 7 6 A. Yes, Part 2,Section IV.E and Part 2, figure 4 of the 7 N.C. State Plan.

8 Q. EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 14 FOCUSES ON 9 APPLICANTS' EVACUATION TIME STUDY. ARE YOU FAMILIAR 10 WITH THE EVACU ATION TIME STUDY AND ITS SUPPLEMENTS 11 PREPARED BY PRC VOORHEES?

12 A. Yes.

13 Q. DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THE TRAFFIC FLOW ESTIMATES USED 14 IN THE TIME STUDY ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC?

15 A. No, I don't.

16 Q. HOW, IF AT ALL, WOULD GASTON COUNTY MAKE USE OF THIS 17 STUDY OR THE DATA THAT IT CONTAINS IN THE EVENT OF AN 18 EMERGENCY?

19 A. We vould expect to follow the Duke Power Company 20 recommendation on action to take during an emergency:

21 however the evacuation time study contains useful 22 information.

23 Q. GIVEN YOUR ANSWER TO THE PRECEDING QUESTION, IS IT 24 MORE IMPORTANT AND USEFUL TO YOU TO HAVE A RANGE OF 25 REALISTIC ESTIMATES OF EVACUATION TIMES FOR A VARIETY 26 OF NORMAL AND ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS OR, AS 27 INTERVENORS CONTEND, SHOULD SUCH STUDIES BE BASED ON 28 WORST CASE ASSURPTIONS?

e 1 A. I disagree that only worst-case weather should be 2 assumed.

3 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN YOUR ANSWER.

4 A. He don't always have adverse weather conditions such 5 as sleet, snow and ice, and an emergency has a 6 greater chance of happening in normal weather than in i

7 worst-case weather.

8 Q. DO YOU HAVE ANY BASIS FOR QUESTIONING THE ADEQUACY OF 9 THE PRC EVACUATION TIME STUDY?

10 A. No.

11 Q. HAVE YOU REVIEWED THE SUPPLEMENTAL PRC STUDY 12 EXAMINING THE QUESTION OF VOLUNTARY EVACUATION BY 13 SOME RESIDENTS IN CHARLOTTE AND ITS EFFECT ON TRAFFIC 14 FLOW WITHIN THE EPZ?

15 A. Yes.

16 Q. IF SO, DO YOU HAVE ANY BASIS FOR QUESTIONING THE 17 CONCLUSION OF THAT SUPPLEMENTAL STUDY?

18 A. No.

19 Q. HAVE YOU REVIEWED THE SUPPLEMENTAL PRC STUDY WHICH 20 EXAMINES THE EFFECT OF THE EVACUATION OF THE ENTIRE 21 CITY OF CHARLOTTE ON TRAFFIC FLOW WITHIN THE EPZ?

22 A. Yes.

23 Q. IF SO, DO YOU HAVE ANY BASIS FOR QUESTIONING THE 24 CONCLUSIONS OF THAT SUPPLEMENTAL STUDY?

25 A. No.

• l i

1 Q. DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THE PRESENT EPZ IS ADEQUATE TO 2 PROTECT THE PEOPLE OF GASTON COUNTY?

3 A. Yes.

4 Q. HAVE YOU HAD SOME EXPERIENCE IN GASTON COUNTY WITH 5 EVACUATING PEOPLE?

6 A. Yes, we have had several incidents over the past few 7 years -- chemical explosions, tanker truck accidents 8 that we have had to evacuate people until we could 9 get the situation under control.

10 Q. HAVE YOU HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE HOW WELL 11 PEOPLE FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS THAT ARE GIVEN FOR THEIR 12 OWN PROTECTION?

13 A. If they are simple and to the point, it is my 14 experience that people will follow them.

i 15 Q. WILL THE EBS MESSAGES BE SIMPLE AND TO THE POINT?

16 A. Yes.

17 Q. WHAT KIND OF ARRANGEMENTS DO YOU HAVE FOR EVACUATION 18 OF SCHOOLS IN THE EPZ? IF THERE IS AN EMERGENCY 19 DURING THE SCHOOL DAY WOULD THE SCHOOL BUSES TAKE THE 20 CHILDREN OUT?

21 A. Yes. There is one school in Gaston County which is l

l 22 in the EPZ, the W.A. Bess School on Beatty Road. It i 23 is right on the perimeter of the EPZ. We have 464 24 faculty and students in this school. We have 3 buses i

25 at the school that would begin transportation of 26 students to the shelters. In addition, we have 8 t

1 buses designated for this at the nearby Ashbook High 2 School, which is less than ten minutes' drive from 3 Bess Elementary, but outside the EPZ. In the event 4 of an accident, the drivers at Ashbrook would get in 5 their buses, travel to the elementary school, load 6 them up and transport the children to the shelters.

7 Back-up will be provided by the Gaston County Central 8 Transportation Service buses. The service has 6 to 9 15 passenger vans, and 7-12 passenger vans and one 10 22-passenger bus which are all radio equipped.

11 Q. WHO WOULD DRIVE THE SCHOOL BUSES THAT WOULD BE SENT 12 TO BESS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL?

13 A. The high school drivers. The high school is out of 14 the EPZ and they would be right on the perimeter. If 15 it looked like we couldn't let them in there, then 16 through radio communication, police would stop the 17 buses.

18 Q. HOW WILL THE SCHOOL BUS DRIVERS BE NOTIFIED?

19 A. There is a radio receiver at the high school which we 20 can call from the EOC.

21 Q. DO YOU HAVE ANY WAY OF PROVIDING ALTERNATE 22 TRANSPORTATION MEANS FOR THE SCHOOL CHILDREN IF THE 23 NEED SHOULD ARISE7

1 A. We have a central transport department which I 2 already mentioned. They are all radio equipped and 3 we could press these into operation should we have 4 to.

5 Q. DO YOU HAVE ANY WAY OF PROVIDING ALTERNATE BUS 6 DRIVERS?

7 A. I could use county employees, who are all adults, or 8 put police officers or volunteer firemen in the 9 school buses, 10 Q. HOW QUICKLY COULD YOU DO THAT? \

11 A. I feel like real quick, within 15 or 20 minutes.

12 Q. ARE THERE ENOUGH BUSES AVAILABLE TO TRANSPORT ALL THE 13 CHILDREN AT BESS SCHOOL AT THE SAME TIME, OR UILL 14 MULTIPLE BUS PICK-UPS BE NECESSARY?

15 A. There are enough buses so that multirle bus pick-ups 16 will not be necessary. Eight buses are delegated to 17 Ashbrook High School to go to Bess School.

18 Q. CONTENTION 14 ALSO ASSERTS THAT PARENTS WILL PICK UP 19 THEIR CHILDREN AT SCHOOL INSTEAD OF MEETING THE 20 CHILDREN AT SHELTERS. DO YOU THINK THAT LARGE 21 NUMBERS OF PARENTS WILL LIKELY GO DIRECTLY TO THE 22 W.A. BESS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL (WHICH YOU HAVE SAID IS 23 THE ONE SCHOOL IN THE EPZ) TO PICK UP THEIR CHILDREN 24 RATHER THAN HAVE THEM EVACUATED ON THE BUS?

1 A. Myself along with the people from Duke Power have met i

2 with the PTA to explain to the people what we would l 3 do should a situation arise, and where their children '

4 will oe sent in an emergency. We will encourage 5 parents to either go to the shelter to pick up their 6 children or stay with them at the shelter. Our first 7 interest is the protection of our children and I feel 8 like after we explain this to the parents and the 9 PTA, I don't feel like we will have that problem. In 10 addition, Duke has prepared a brochure especially for 11 parents of school children.

12 Q. EVEN IF YOU DID HAVE SOME PARENTS GO PICK UP THEIR 13 CHILDREN, GIVEN WHAT YOU SAY ABOUT THE LOCATION OF 14 THE SCHOOL BEING RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE lO-MILE 15 ZONE, WOULD THAT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE TIME 16 IT TAKES?

17 A. I don't feel like it would.

18 Q. DO YOU HAVE ANY RFASON TO AGREE WITH THE INTERVENORS' 19 ARGUMENT THAT IT MIGHT TAKE 33 HOURS TO COMPLETE 20 EVACUATION OF THE EPZ?

21 A. Not in Gaston County.

22 Q. WHAT PROVISIONS ARE YOU MAKING IN YOUR PLAN FOR THE 23 EVACUATION OF PERSONS WHO DON'T HAVE THEIR OWN MEANS 24 OF TRANSPORTATION, WHEREVER THEY HAPPEN TO BE?

1 A. As I mentioned when you asked about hearing impaired 2 people, our volunteer fire departments in these areas 3 will start their fund drive in May. As they go 4 door-to-door, they have been instructed to ask if 5 somebody there in the EPZ does not have 6 transportation or needs an ambulance to get out.

7 This information will be communicated back to me 8 af ter they make their fund drive. Also, the Duke 9 Power Co. brochure directs people without 10 transportation to call the Gaston County Emergency 11 Management Department.

12 Q. SO IN EFFECT THIS WILL BE A CENSUS?

13 A. That is correct.

14 Q. WHAT ARRANGEMENTS WILL YOU MAKE FOR THOSE PEOPLE OR 15 HOUSEHOLDS WHICH ARE WITHOUT VEHICLES AT SOME TIMES?

16 A. Our police officers and the central transport service 17 will go pick them up and take them out of the EPZ.

18 Q. IS THERE A PUBLIC TRANSIT SYSTEM IN GASTON COUNTY?

19 A. The only one is in Gastonia.

20 Q. IS THERE A PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM WITHIN THE 21 EPZ PART OF GASTON COUNTY?

22 A. No.

23 Q. WOULD THIS SUGGEST ANYTHING TO YOU ABOUT HOW PEOPLE l

24 ORDINARILY GET AROUND?

25 A. Using their own vehicles, or in friend's, relatives' l

l 26 or neighbors' vehicles.

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1 1 Q. WOULD THAT_SUGGEST ALSO THAT THE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE 2 TOTALLY WITHOUT ANY KINDS OF PRIVATE TRANSPORTATION 3 AVATLA3LE TO THEM WOULD BE REASONABLY SMALL?

4 A. That's my feeling, yes.

5 Q. ARE THERE ANY HOSPITALS OR PRISONS IN THE GASTON 6 COUNTRY PART OF THE EPZ?

7 A. There are no hospitals or prisons.

8 Q. ARE THERE ANY DAY CARE CENTERS IN THE GASTON COUNTY 9 PART OF THE EPZ?

10 A. I have one day care center that is right on the 11 borderline, almost like the same situation as Bess 12 Elementary School. It can have between 60 and 90 13 children that would have to be taken out. I have met 14 with the officials of this day care center to discuss 15 this problem. They had one bus which would not be 16 capable of moving all of them, and the Duke Power 17 Company school brochure has gone out to all of the 18 parents down there. These children would be taken 19 out with our central transportation vans and taken to 20 the shelters and the parents will be notified which 21 shelter they will be at so that they could pick them 22 up.

23 Q. IS THERE A NURSING HOME IN GASTON COUNTY?

24 A. I've got one nursing home which has maybe four or 25 five residents and this is all.

26 Q. DO THEY HAVE THEIR OWN MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION?

1 A. Right. They would be taken out in private cars.

2 Q. DO YOU THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER 3 OF PEOPLE THAT WOULD REFUSE TO EVACUATE WHEN AN ORDER 4 TO EVACUATE IS GIVEN?

5 A. I don't feel so in Gaston County. If we give them 6 the warning, I feel like we have done our job. But I 7 don't feel like there will be any large number that 8 would refuse to leave.

1 l

1

1 TESTIMONY OF MECKLENBURG COUNTY I 2 (LEWIS WAYNE BROOME) ON 3 EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTIONS 14 AND 15 4 Q. DOES YOUR COUNTY PLAN PROVIDE INFORMATION WHICH 5 ADDRESSES THIS CONTENTION?

6 A. Yes, Part 3,Section IV.E and Part 3, figure 4 of the 7 N.C. State Plan.

8 Q. EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 14 FOCUSES ON 9 APPLICANTS' EVACUATION TIME STUDY. ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THIS STUDY?

10 11 A. Yes.

12 Q.' DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THE TRAFFIC FLOW ESTIMATES 13 PREPARED BY PRC VOORHEES USED IN THE STUDY ARE TOO 14 OPTIMISTIC?

15 A. In actuality, I think the Voorhees count is somewhat 16 conservative. I think that the roads that PRC 17 Voorhees looked at have also been evaluated by the 18 North Carolina Department of Transportation.

19 Although I have not seen the DOT study, it is my 20 understanding that its estimate shows higher volume

! 21 for those roads because of the six or seven primary 22 roads identified as evacuation routes. All of them 23 are good roads, one of them is an interstate highway.

l 24 I think that the study is conservative from the i

! 25 standpoint of evacuation time and I think it can l 26 actually be done in less time.

27 Q. HOW MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE ARE WE TALKING ABOUT?

I f

{

m n - - , - ,-

I 1 A. Probably a .lO to 15 percent variation between what 2 DOT is indicating and what PRC Voorhees is 3 indicating.

4 Q. HOW, IF AT ALL, WOULD CHARLOTTE-MECKLENBURG 5 GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS USE THE PRC STUDY? WOULD THEY 6 RELY ON IT IN DECIDING BETWEEN EVACUATION AND OTHER 7 PROTECTIVE ACTION?

8 A. It would be one factor in weighing evacuation versus 9 sheltering.

10 Q. DO YOU AGREE WITH THE INTERVENORS THAT THE EVACUATION 11 TIME ASSESSMENT SHOULD ASSUME WORST CASE WEATHER 12 CONDITIONS SUCH AS SNOW AND ICE ON THE ROADS?

13 A. No. I don't think so. It should assume a range of 14 normal and adverse conditions. In the event of snow 15 and ice, sheltering may be the recommended protective 16 action.

17 Q. HAVE YOU REVIEWED THE SUPPLEMENTAL PRC STUDY WHICH 18 EXAMINES THE QUESTION OF VOLUNTARY OR " SHADOW" 19 EVACUATION BY SOME CHARLOTTE RESIDENTS AND ITS EFFECT l 20 ON TRAFFIC FLOW WITHIN THE EPZ7 1

21 A. Yes.

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22 Q. DO YOU ACCEPT THE CO,NCLUSION OF THIS SUPPLEMENTAL 23 STUDY ON " SHADOW" EVACUATION?

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1 A. Yes, I have seen the report and I agree with it to 2 the extent that I think a large percentage of the 3 population of the City of Charlotte would have to 4 voluntarily evacuate before it would cause unusual 5 delay with the traffic flow coming out of the EPZ.

6 Q. EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 14 ALSO CONTENDS THAT 7 THE EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES ERRONEOUSLY ASSUME 8 QUICK RESPONSE BY SCHOOL BUSES AND MULTIPLE SCHOOL 9 BUS TRIPS. DO YOU HAVE ANY COMMENT ON WHETHER THE 10 ESTIMATES ARE ERRONEOUS IN THIS RESPECT?

11 A. I do not think they are erroneous. The draft school 12 plan distributed for review indicates that there 13 would be enough buses to evacuate all the students on 14 a one trip basis without anybody making a round trip.

15 There are 51 buses and 2818 students, assuming that 16 every student is in school.

17 Q. WILL THE RESPONSE BE AS RAPID AS THE STUDY ASSUMES?

18 A. I think so because the buses are for the most part a 19 maximum of 30 minutes away cnd a minimum of five 20 minutes away, not counting the buses that are 21 physically located at the schools within the 10 mile 22 EPZ. The drivers will be alerted through the tone 23 alert radio system provided at the schools. Also, a 24 two-way local law enforcement frequency is available 25 by dispatching a. law enforcement vehicle to each 26 school. I don't think that the response would be r

.,e

1 slow. I think it would be very active and I think 2 that the procedure once it's finalized and agreed

3 upon will be very viable, very workable.

4 Q. THE QUESTION OF HOW MANY HOUSEHOLDS ARE WITHOUT 4

5 VEHICLES, EITHER AT ALL TIMES OR DURING CERTAIN TIMES 6 OF THE DAY IS THE SUBJECT OF FURTHER STUDY. HOWEVER, 7 WHAT EFFECT WOULD IT HAVE ON THE MECKLENBURG COUNTY 8 EVACUATION PLAN IF AS MANY AS 10 PERCENT OF THE 9 HOUSEHOLDS WERE WITHOUT CARS DURING THE WORK DAY?

10 A. If you look at 10 percent of the permane'tn population 11 that has been identified in the 10-mile EPZ in 12 Mecklenburg County, you are looking at, on a 13 conservative basis, about 700 people. With the 14 transportation capability that we have in 15 Charlotte /Mecklenburg, which would include the 16 Department of Transportation city buses 17 (approximately 100 buses) as primary source and the i school bus system (627 buses) as backup, then I see 18 19 no problem at all in evacuating that population from 20 the EPZ.

21 Q. WOULD HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT SCHOOL BUS DRIVERS BE USED 22 IN THE CHARLOTTE-MECKLENBURG COUNTY AS PART OF THE 23 EVACUATION PLAN 7 24 A. Student drivers drise the buses in North Carolina.

25 However, the present draft version of the school plan 26 will allow the student bus drivers only to leave the

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1 area with a load of passengers. It will not allow a 2 student driver to reenter the EPZ for evacuation of 3 transportation dependent people. Adult bus drivers, 4 emergency workers driving the buses will be allowed 5 back in there but not students.

6 Q. WHERE WILL THESE BACKUP BUS DRIVERS, THE ADULT 7 EMERGENCY WORKERS, COME FROM?

8 A. These backup drivers would be fire department 9 personnel not assigned a specific function, or police 10 department personnel, or emergency workers from city 11 and county government. It could be any one of a

] 12 number of sources up to and including active members 13 of the fire or police sta tion, members of the 14 National Guard or the Air National Guard.

15 Q. HOW WILL THESE BACKUP DRIVERS BE NOTIFIED AND HOW 16 LONG WILL THIS NOTIFICATION TAKE7 17 A. To some extent the emergency workers will be in place 18 with regard to certain administrative staff within an 19 EOC of all city and county departments. We would 20 have auxiliaries - we would have approximately 800 21 volunteer firemen that would be available and they 22 could be notified via phone. Also, the volunteer 23 firemen have pagers or monitors that they can be 24 notified on. Individual organizations have alerting 25 notifications listings that they maintain as part of 26 their own internal procedcres and we would just u

j j

l 1 notify the department head or the representative in 2 the EOC to contact X number of people so that they 3 could come in and mobilize to drive vehicles or 4 assist in whatever matter is necessary.

5 Q. WILL IT BE NECESSARY TO HAVE SOME PROCEDURES FOR 6 GETTING THE BACKUP DRIVERS TO THE BUSES?

7 A. There is a pool at the Department of Transportation 8 garage where these buses are maintained. The drivers a

9 would be directed there. In the event access to 10 school buses is necessary, and such are at a 11 residence at night, the garage for the city 12 transportation system would serve as a staging area:

13 emergency drivers would congregate there and would be r 14 driven to the school buses, the location of which is 15 known to the Department of Transportation. The 16 Depa rtment has duplicate keys.

4 17 Q. EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 14 ALSO ARGUES THAT THE 18 TIME STUDY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR PARENTS GOING TO 19 THEIR CHILDREN'S SCHOOLS TO PICK UP THEIR CHILDREN 20 BEFORE EVACUATION. DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL 21 OCCUR?

22 A. No. I don't think so in substantial numbers.

23 Q. WHY NOT?

24 A. I think through the education process that parents

, 25 5.111 be made aware that a school plan is in place for i 26 the children to be taken to shelters with their

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1 teachers and that the children are going to be 1

2 evacuated on a very conservative basis (that is, if l 3 there is any indication at all that it might be 4 needed). We will explain that it would be 5 unnecessary for parents to try and get back into the 6 10-mile EPZ, drive to a school, and pick up their 7 child. We will explain to them that they are 8 jeopardizing the health and safety of their child as 9 opposed to doing any good.

10 Q. HAVE EFFORTS BEEN MADE BY THE CHARLOTTE-MECKLENBURG 11 SCHOOLS TO EXPLAIN TO PARENTS WHAT THEY SHOULD DO I;.

12 THE EVENT OF A RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY WHILE SCHOOL IS 13 IN SESSION?

14 A. Yes. Duke has published a brochure for school 15 children and parents as to actions to be taken in an 16 emergency. I am not sure of the ef forts that the 17 school system itself nas made with regard to 18 explaining the brochure and providing additional 19 information to support the brochure. I would assume 4

20 that they would have a program that would be 21 developed to respond to these areas in question.

22 Q. HAVE SIMILAR EFFORTS BEEN MADE IN THE PRIVATE 23 SCHOOLS?

24 A. There are no private schools in this area of 25 Mecklenberg County. ,

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1 Q. DO YOU THINK THAT EVACUATION IN THE EPZ WOULD TAKE AS 2 LONG AS 33 HOURS, AS INTERVENORS CONTEND?

3 A. I do not think it would take nearly that length of 4 time. We in the community of Charlotte-Mecklenburg 5 traverse the county routinely. We bring about eighty 6 to one-hundred thousand people downtown every day 7 over a period of about two hours and we evacuate them 8 in the evening when they quit work in about the same 9 time frame.

10 Q. DO YOU THINK THAT PRC VOORHEES ESTIMATES ARE CLOSER 4

11 TO THE MARK?

12 A. I think they are more realistic.

13 Q. DO YOU HAVE PROCEDURES FOR EVACUATING HOSPITALS IN 14 MECKLENBURG COUNTY?

I 15 A. Mecklenburg County has no hospital within the 10-mile i

EPZ.

16 j 17 Q. WHAT ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE MADE TO EVACU ATE NURSING 18 HOMES IN MECKLENBURG COUNTY THAT ARE WITHIN THE 10-19 MILE EPZ7 20 A. There is only one nursing home within the EPZ, with a 21 population of approximately 12 patients. It is my i

l 22 understanding that it can handle its own

• 1 transportation needs. If they request assis,tance, we l

l 24 will provide it.

25 Q. WHAT ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEET! Mt.DE TO EVACUATE CHILD 26 DAY-CARE CENTERS IN MECKLENBURG COUNTY?

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l 1 A. We have contacted all of the day-care facilities. To l 2 da te , only one has indicated that it would need a bus 3 to assist in transporting the children. Such will be 4 pr o.vided.

5 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN HOF PEOPLE WITHOUT THEIR OWN MEANS OF 6 TRANSPORTATION WOULD BE ABLE TO SECURE TRANSPORTATION 7 IN THE EVENT THAT EVACUATION BECAME NECESSARY.

8 A. First of all we would do the same thing that we did 1

l 9 at McGuire which was to go ahead and assign or

! 10 predesignate a certain number of buses to specific 4 11 locations so that if people did not have their own 12 transportation, it would be a mininal distance 13 between their home and a transportation point. They 14 could also contact the office or contact the i

15 emergency numbers that they normally contact for 16 assistance, in which case'we could provide it for 17 them at that time.

i 18 Q. IF THE LOCAL TELEPHONE SYSTEM BECOMES-OVERLOADED, 1

19 WHAT ALTERNATIVE MEANS ARE AVAILABLE.TO NOTIFY 20 PERSONS.WITHOUT VEHICLES OF AVAILABLE TRANSPORTATION?

, 21 A. The primary means would be the Emergency Broadcasting i

22 System where we would activate the EBS and broadcast 23 the message. In addition, we could use the 24 supplemental system whereby every road in the EPZ

25. would be covered by a emergency response vehicle.

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1 Q. DO YOU AGREE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PEOPLE WHO WILL 2 REFUSE TO EVACUATE EVEN IF ORDERED TO DO SO BY PUBLIC 3 OFFICIALS?

4 A. Yes.

5 Q. DO YOU THINK THAT WILL BE A LARGE COMPONENT OF THE 6 POPULATION?

7 A. No. I think it will be very small -- less than one-8 half of one percent would be my estimate.

9 Q. DO YOU THINK THE LICENSING BOARL SHOULD BE CONCERNED 10 ABOUT THIS SEGMENT OF THE POPULATICN?

11 A. I don't think the Licensing Board can do anything 12 about it. Some people just won't cooperate. They 13 just won't go! I think a case in point would be 14 Truman during the Mount St. Helen erurcion. He just 15 refused to go. We cannot physically pick somebody up 16 out of their home and move them. I think that is a 17 bad approach. It is my understanding that 18 Mecklenburg County would not force anyone out cf 19 their home.

20 Q. DO YOU HAVE ANY COMMENT ON THE EFFECT THAT PANIC OR 21 IRRESPONSIBLE BEHAVIOR MIGHT HAVE ON SUCCESSFUL 22 PROTECTIVE ACTION?

23 A. I think that panic is a potential problem in any 24 disastrous situation but does not exist to the extent

25 that most people think it does. And I think that 26 existing data indicates that that does not take

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1 place. Hurricanes are an example. The situation 1

2 that we had here in Mecklenburg County / City of 3 Charlotte in 1982 with the chemical fire is an 4 example. Panic is not one of the things that we had 5 to concern ourselves with.

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1 TEST 1 MONY OF YORK COUNTY 2 (PHILLIP STEVEN THOMAS) ON 3 EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTIONS 14 AND 15 4 Q. EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTION 14 FOCUSES ON THE 5 EVACUATION TIME STUDY THAT WAS PREPARED BY PRC 6 VOORHEES FOR DUKE POWER COMPANY. ARE YOU FAMILIAR 7 WITH THIS STUDY?

8 A. Generally, yes.

! 9 Q. HOW, IF AT ALL, WCULD YORK COUNTY GOVERNMENT MAKE USE 4 10 OF THAT STUDY OR THE DATA THAT IT CONTAINS IN THE 11 EVENT OF AN EMERGENCY?

12 A. We would use that along with other data in weighing 13 informa tion we receive from the utility as to 14 evacuation and/or in-place sheltering.

15 Q. GIVEN THE ANSWER TO THE PRECEDING QUESTION, IS IT 16 MORE IMPORTANT AND USEFUL TO YOU TO HAVE A RANGE OF 17 REALISTIC ESTIMATES OF EVACUATION TIMES FOR A VARIETY 18 OF NORMAL AND ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS OR, AS 19 INTERVENORS CONTEND, SHOULD SUCH STUDIES BE BASED ON 20 WORST-CASE ASSUMPTIONS?

21 A. It is more important and useful to have a range of 22 realistic estimates.

i 23 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN YOUR ANSWER.

24 A. Any time you can use realistic assumptions, they are 25 more useful in planning.

26 Q. DO YOU HAVE ANY BASIS FOR QUESTIONING THE ADEQUACY OF 27 THE PRC EVACUATION TIME STUDY?

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l A. No.

2 Q. HAVE YOU REVIEWED THE SUPPLEMENTAL PRC STUDY 3 EXAMINING THE QUESTION OF VOLUNTARY EVACUATION BY 4 SOME RESIDENTS IN CHARLOTTE AND ITS EFFECT ON TRAFFIC

! 5 FLOW WITHIN THE EPZ?

6 A. No.

7 Q. HAVE YOU REVIEWED THE SUPPLEMENTAL PRC STUDY WHICH 8 EXAMINES THE EFFECT OF EVACUATION OF THE ENTIRE CITY 9 OF CHARLOTTE UPON TRAFFIC IN THE EPZ?

> 10 A. No.

j ll O. DO YOU FEEL THAT THE CURRENT lO-MILE EPZ IS ADEQUATE 12 TO PROTECT THE PEOPLE OF YORK COUNTY?

13 A. Yes.

14 Q. DO YOU FEEL THAT TO ADEQUATELY PROTECT THE YORK 15 COUNTY POPULATION IT IS NECESSARY TO EXPAND THE 10-16 MILE EPZ TO INCLUDE RESIDENTS OF CHARLOTTE?

17 A. No. I feel our plan will adequately take care of our i

18 citizens and the proximity of Charlotte should not 19 affect the situa. tion.

20 Q. IS THERE A SECTION OF THE YORK COUNTY EMERGENCY l

l 21 OPERATIONS PLAN THAT DEALS WITH THE ISSUES RAISED IN l 22 CONTENTION 147 l

23 A. Yes. Annexes C, L, K and Q of the York County 24 Emergency Operations Plan.

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l 1 Q. EMERGENCY PLANNING CONTENTIONS 14 AND 15 ALSO FOCUS 2 ON THE USE OF SCHOOL BUSES IN EVACUATION OF THE EPZ.

3 WOULD SCHOOL BUSES BE USED AS A PART OF THE YORK 4 COUNTY RESPONSE TO A RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY?

5 A. Yes.

6 Q. HOW WOULD THEY BE USED?

7 A. They would be used not only to transport the school 8 children if school is in session- but would also be 9 utilized to transport other transportation-dependent 10 individuals.

11 Q. WOULD HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT DRIVERS BE USED TO 12 TRANSPORT SCHOOL CHILDREN?

13 A. Yes.

14 Q. IF SO, EXPLAIN HOW THESE STUDENT DRIVERS WOULD BE 15 NOTIFIED DURING SCHOOL HOURS.

16 A. During school hours, student drivers would be advised 17 by school officials. Each school district has 18 operating procedures to get buses rolling.

19 Q. IF A RADIOLOGICAL EMERGENCY ARISES OTHER THAN ON A 20 SCHOOL DAY WHO WILL THE BUS DRIVERS BE AND HOW WILL i

21 THEY BE NOTIFIED?

22 A. In that particular situation, we will be calling on 23 our volunteer firemen to act as the drivers. They 24 will be notified by contacting the volunteer fire 25 department thr'ough the fire marshall's office, which 26 is one of the agencies that has a representative in

a 1 the EOC. They would sound the notification system 2 that they are normally notified through. They would 3 be told by a voice transmittal pager to report to a 4 specific' location where, depending on the situation, 5 they would be brought together collectively to pick 6 up te buses at a specific site or taken collectively 7 as a group and let off one by one at the buses, which 8 might be at the homes of the student drivers.

9 Q. ARE YORK COUNTY' S VOLUNTEER FIREMEN USU ALLY NOTIFIED 10 BY A PAGER OR DEVICE WHICH ALLOWS VERBAL 11 COMMUNICATION WITH THE VOLUNTEER FIREMEN?

12 A. There is a paging system that they use where they can 13 have verbal communication, one way communication, or 14 messages given to them to report or to call,

15 depending upon that situation.

16 Q. WOULD THE STUDENT BUS DRIVERS ONLY MAKE ONE TRIP OUT 17 OF THE EPZ OR WOULD 'THEY GO BACK INTO THE EPZ TO MAKE 18 MULTIPLE TRIPS?

19 A. Some school districts in York County will utilize 20 student bus drivers to make more than one trip if it 21 is necessary to do so to evacuate their school. They 22 will not make more than one trip to pick up any other 23 transportation dependent individuals. School 24 district 3 will also use a staging area concept to 25 move children within the EPZ to other schools either i

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l 1 on the perimeter or outside the EPZ where parents may 2 pick children up. If the children are not picked up, 3 they will then be noved to a shelter.

4 Q. WHO WOULD PICK UP OTHER TRANSPORTATION DEPENDENT 5 INDIVIDUALS?

6 A. Volunteer firemen wi'l be assigned this function.

7 Q. HAVE YOU CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITT THAT SOME PARENTS 8 MAY GO TO THE CHILDREN' S SCHOOLS TO PICK THEM UP 9 BEFORE EVACUATING? DO YOU PLAN TO ENCOURAGE OR 10 DISCOURAGE PARENTS FROM DOING THAT?

11 A.' Yes, we have considered that and we plan to 12 discourage parents.

13 Q. HOW WILL YOU DISCOURGE PARENTS FROM DOING SO?

14 A. We see that as an educational process. The school 15 districts will provide information to the parents so 16 that they understand what will be taking place during 17 such an emergency and that students will be taken to 18 a certain site outside the EPZ and should be picked 19 up there. Duke Power Company has prepared a brochure

! 20 for this specific purpose. I feel this brochure will 21 have a positive influence.

22 Q. CAN YOU EXPLAIN BRIEFLY WHY YOU WOULD DISCOURAGE I

23 PARENTS FROM GOING TO THE SCHOOL TO PICK UP THEIR l 24 CHILDREN?

l 1 A. In our opinion, it would create a traffic bottleneck 2 and it would release some students that are under the 3 care of the school district. Students that are in 4 school and are being reported as being present that 5 day would have to be released to their parent's 6 custody, which would slow down the gr op evacuation 7 of the school children. In addition, allowing 8 parents to do this would clog the road with 9 additional traffic coming in and backing up waiting 10 to load and unload, e tc.

11 Q. DO YOU ANTICIPATE SUCCESS IN DISCOURAGING PARENTS 12 FROM PICKING UP THEIR CHILDREN AT SCHOOL RATHER THAN 13 AT A SHELTER?

14 A. We would hope for the best, but we would recognize it 15 would probably be less than totally succeasful.

16 Accordingly, in an emergency we will be particularly 17 watchful for traffic congestion around schools and 18 will provide law enforcement authorities as 19 necessary.

20 Q. YOU HAVE STATED EARLIER THAT SCHOOL BUSES WOULD ALSO 4

21 BE USED TO PROVIDE TRANSPORTATION FOR THOSE WHO MIGHT 22 BE WITHOUT THEIR OWN MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. IS 23 THAT RIGHT?

24 A. That is correct.

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1 Q. PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW PERSONS WHO ARE TRANSPORTATION-2 DEPENDENT WOULD BE ABLE TO GET IN CONTACT WITH YOU SO 3 THAT YOU KNOW THAT THEY NEED SCHOOL BUS 4 TRANSPORTATION.

5 A. This has already been done to some extent through the 6 Duke Power brochure, which tells people to call in 7 and identify themselves and their location if they 8 have a need for transportation. During an event as 9 it was taking place, we would be utilizing the EBS 10 system to identify just that. If a particular zone 11 was being evacuated, we would let people know over 12 the EBS how many school buses or vans we had in the 13 area, where they would be located, if they were 14 primary pickup po3nts, or to what extent their 15 involveuent would be in bringing additional clothes, .

16 or suitcases, etc. This kind of information would be 17 given to them over the EBS.

18 Q. ARE THERE HOSPITALS, NURSING HOMES, PRISONS, DAY CARE 19 CENTERS OR OTHER INSTITUTIONAL FACILITIES IN YORK 20 COUNTY?

21 A. Yes. There are 2 hospitals, 1 prison, 5 detention l 22 centers, 7 nursing homes and 26 day care centers.

23 Q. DESCRIBE THE ARRANGEMENTS THAT WOULD BE MADE FOR 24 EVACUATING YORK COUNTT HOSPITALS AND OTHER i

25 INSTITUTIONS SUCH AS NURSING HOMES IN THE EPZ SHOULD 26 THAT BECOME NECESSARY.

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1 A. We have been in contact with all of the 2 administrators of the facilities you have mentioned, 3 the hospitals, nursing homes, etc. , and found out 4 from them the number of patients they have typically 5 that would require ambulances or special types of 6 transportation. We have matched up the number of 7 vehicles and personnel we have with their need. In 8 addition to that, we would have vans and school buses 9 that we would dedicate to remove them from the 10-10 mile EPZ. We also have the ability to call on other 11 counties and hospitals for additional support to 12 evacuate these facilities.

13 O. DO YOU FEEL THESE ARRANGEMENTS ARE ADEQUATE 7 14 A. Yes.

15 Q. WHAT ARRANGEMENTS WILL BE MADE TO PROVIDE 16 TRANSPORTATION FOR CHILDREN AT DAY CARE FACILITIES IF 17 THERE ARE SUCH THAT DO NOT HAVE ADEQUATE 18 TRANSPORTATION OF THEIR OWN?

19 A. As with the nursing homes and hospitals, we have been 20 in contact with the supervisors and administrators of 21 the day care centers and found out exactly what their 22 needs are for evacuation purposes, such as whether 23 they have enough vehicles or if they need additional 24 vehicles or if they want to depend solely upon us for 25 their transportation in this particular case. We are 26 prepared to furnish the necessary support.

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1 Q. DO YOU FEEL THESE ARRANGEMENTS ARE ADEQUATE 7 ,

i 2 A. Yes.  :

I l 3 Q. MAVE YOU MADE ARRANGEMENTS FOR BACKUP BUS DRIVERS?

i 4 A. Yes. Presently as a resource we have about a dozen

{ 5 regular school bus drivers (18 or older). Our i i

j 6 primary source for backup drivars would be our rural l 4 r 7 fire department. We have 573 rural firemen presently l f 8 in our system. We have 24-50 pe,ople in our public I

9 works department and other county departments we 10 would call on to drive buses going back into the EP .

11 We have been offered oy the Red Cross a list of I

L i 12 possible back up drivers for our buses. We feel like l 13 this is more than adequate to man our buses to go 1 14 back in for an entire 10 mile EPZ evacuation. ,

j 15 Q. HOW WILL SUCH BACK-UP DRIVERS BE INSTRUCTED AS TO

! 16 THEIR DUTIES?

17 -A. Procedures will be in place that specify action to be 18- taken. These procedures will provide for the  !

i 19 contingency that school buses may be at the regular l

! 20 driver's home at night. ,

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l 21 Q. NOW MANY SCHOOL CHILDREN WILL MAVE TO BE MOVED IN THE  !

! 22 EVENT OF AN EVACUATION DURING SCM00L N00RS?

! 23 A. Approximately 21,000.

24 Q. NOW MANY SCM00L BUSES WOULD BE INYOLVED IN SUCH AM 25 EVACUATION?

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1 A. We have 239 buses that we would be manning for this 2 purpose. An additional 400 outside of York County 3 could be called on as a resource if we need them from 4 other counties in South Carolina.

5 Q. DO YOU FEEL THAT THE NUMBER OF BUSES IS ALEQUATE TO 6 MOVE SCHOOL CHILDREN 7 7 A. Based upon the capacity of the school buses, the 8 location of the schools and the number of children, I 9 do feel the number of buses is adequate. In some 10 instances multiple trips may be necessary, but this 11 will not detract from the timely evacuation.

12 Q. DOES YOUR COUNTI HAVE ANY EXPERIENCE WITH ActJAL 13 EVACUATIONS FOR ANY KIND OF EMERGENCY?

14 A. Yes, we have.

15 Q. COULD YOU GIVE US SOME EXAMPLES?

16 A. As recently as Christmas Day 1983, we had a nursing 17 home have a problem with its sprinkler system that 18 required the evacuation of the entire nursing home

, 19 and I believe it was in the neighborhood of 100 or so 20 residents that had to be evacuated. This was during 21 the Director of Emergency Preparedness ,\gency's 22 illness and the backup personnel were out of town, 23 but everybody filled in their slot accordingly. It 24 went off beautifullyt they were evacuated either to a 25 local church as a shelter site, a hospital, or homes 26 with their families and it took about fou't hours

1 under very adverse conditions. It worked real well.

2 That was the third time we have had an experience 3 like that in a nursing home evacuation. f L

4 Q. WAS THERE A NEED FOR THE COUNTY GOVERNMENT TO BECOME

, 5 DIRECTLY INYOLVED IN DIRECTING THIS EVACUATION?

6 A. Yes, the county government was respdnalble for the 7 entire coordination.

8 ' O. WHO WAS IN CHARGE OF THIS EXERCISE, IN VIEW OF THE ,

9 ILLNESS OF THE DIRECTOR OF EMERGENCY PLANNING 7 10 A. Our fire marshal.

11 0 .' HAD YOU PROVIDED FOR A CHAIN OF COMMAND WITH BACKUPS '

12 FOR EACH JOB 7 l 13 A. Yes, that is correct.

14 O. HAS THE COUNTY HAD ANY OPPORTUNIT TO OBSERVE HOW WELL 15 PEOPLE FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS THAT ARE GIVEN FOR THEIR 16 OWN PROTECTION IN THE COURSE OF THESE EVACUATIONS?

17 A. Yes, we have. Using the nursing home evacuation as a 18 good example, it went very well. Everyone that was 19 involved understood the seriousness of the situation 20 with the elderly people in the cold weather and the 21 possibility of a lot of patients being dampened by 22 the sprinkler system. Due to the obvious potential 23 medical problems and the need for speed, everyone, 24 including the evacuees, followed directions and 25 performed well. .They recognized who was in charge

F n? 4 1 and took directions and followed through on all 2 directions given. All things considered, it was very 3 successful.

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, EPC 14/15 KULASH ATTACHMENT A ,

Prepared for:

Duke Power Company Catawba Nuclear Station Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Time Estimates 4

Final Report i

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x l 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102

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April 1983 1

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CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION EVACUATION ANALYSIS 9

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Prepared for:

DUKE POWER COMPANY by PRC VOORHEES 1500 Planning Research Crive McLean, Virginia 22102.

April 1983 4

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i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Chapter I INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Purpose of this Study . . . . . . . . . . I Location of the Catawba Nuclear Station. . . . . 1 State and Local Off-Site Preparedness Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Summary of the Method for Estimating Evacuation Times . . . . . . . . . . 3 Summary of Evacuation Times . . . . . . . . 4 11 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION VICINITY . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Land Use in the 10-Mile Radius of the Catawba Nuclear Station . . . . . . . . 5 Highway System in the 10-Mile Radius of the Catawba Nuclear Station . . . . . . . . 5 Other Transportation Facilities in the Catawba Nuclear Station Area . . . . . . . . . 7 Governmental Jurisdictions. . . . . . . . . 7 Special Facilities Within the 10-Mile Radius of the Catawba Nuclear Station . . . . . . . 7 III THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE FOR THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION . . . . . . . 11 Guidelines for Defining the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). . . . . . . . . . 11 The EPZ Boundary for the Catawba Nuclear Station .. . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Selective Evacuation Zones. . . . . . .. 12 IV POPULATION OF THE CATAWBA EPZ . . . . . . 16 Population Segments . . . . . . . . . . 16 i Special Facility Population . . . . . . . . . 16

- Populatlan Distribution . . . . . . . . . . 21 V THE EVACUATION SEQUENCE FOR THE CATAWBA EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ) . . . . . 22 Time Periods in Which Evacuation Might Occur . . . 23 Population Segments to be Evacuated . . . . . . 26 Evacuation Action Steps . . . . . . . . . 26 Evacuation of Permanent Resident Population (Vehicle-Owning). . . . . . . . .. . . 23 Evacuation of Permanent Resident Population (Non-Vehicle-Owning) . . . . . . . . . 31 Evacuation of Transient Population . . . . . . 32 11

Table of Contents, Continued Chapter Page Evacuation of Special Facility Population (Schools) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Evacuation of Special Facility Population (Institutions) . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Summary of the Evacuation Process . . . . . . 34 VI EVACUATION P'OUTES. . . . . . . . .. . 37 Designated Evacuation Routes . . . . . . . . 37 Capacities of the Evacuation Routes . . . . . . 37 Evacuation Travelsheds . . . . . . . . . . 39 Distribution of Traffic to the Evacuation Routes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Relationship of Evacuation Traffic Volumes and Route Capacities . . . . . . . . . . 43 VII

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES . . . 44 Conditions and Time Periods . . . . . . . . 44 Method for Estimating Evacuation Time . . . . . 44 Evacuation time for the Permanent Resident

. Population (Vehicle-Owning), Fall / Winter Weekday, Norma! Weather Conditions . . . . . . . -45 Evacuation Time for the Pemanent Resident Population (Non-Vehicle-Owning) . . . . . . 58 Evacuation Time for the Transient Population . . . 60 Evacuation Time for the Special Facility Population (Schools) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

, Evacuation Time for the Special Facility Population (Institutions) . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Summary of Evacuation Times for Normal Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Evacuation Times Under Severe Weather Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Summary of Times for Selective Evacuations . . . 73 VIII CONFIRMATION OF EVACUATION . . . . . . . 74 Introduction . . . . . . . . .. . .- . . 74 Planned Approach to Confirmation . . . .. . . 74 Time Required for Confirmation . . . . . . . 75' l

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l Table of Contents, Continued Chapter Page APPENDIX A. POPULATION BY 22.5 DEGREES SECTORS . A-1 APPENDIX B. DERIVATION OF NON-VEHICLE-OWNING POPULATION AND NUMBER OF CARS USED FOR EVACUATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1 APPENDIX C. DESCRIPTION OF EVACPLAN MODELS USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES . . . C-1 t

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LIST OF TABLES Number . Page 1 Local Government Units Within 10-Mile Radius and EPZ of the Catawba Nuclear Power Station . . . . . . 14 2 Population of the Catawba EPZ and Zones . . 17 3 Special Facilities Population in the Catawba EPZ. . . . . . 18 4 Summary of Evacuation Action Steps . . . 36 5 Capacity of Major Evacuation Routes . . . 40 6 Traffic Volumes and Capacities for Major Evacuation Routes . . . . . 42 7 Time Distribution for " Receive Notification" Step . . . . . . . 46 8 Time Distribution for " Leave Place of Work" Step . . . . . . . 47 9 Time Distribution for " Work-to-Home Travel" Step . . . . . . . 48 10 Time Distribution for " Prepare for Evacuating Home" Step . . . . . . . 49 11 Time Distribution for " Prepare for Evacuating Home" Step for Non-Vehicle-Owning Population . . 59 12 Time Distribution for " Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses" Step . . . . 60 13 Time Distribution for " Assemble Traveling Group" Step for Transient Population . . . 62 14 Time Distribution for "Recieve Notification" Step for School Population . . . . 65 15 Time Distribution for " Evacuate School Population in Buses" Step . .- . . . 66 y

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List of Tables, Continued Number Page 16 Time Distribution for " Mobilize Population" Step for Population in Institutions . . 68 17 Time Distribution for " Evacuate Institutional Population in Buses and Special Vehicles" Step . . . . . 69 18 Summary of Evacuation Time Estimates . - . . 72

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LIST OF FIGURES Number Page 1 Location of the Catawba Nuclear Power Station. . . . 2 2 Highway System in the Vicinity of the Catawba Nuclear Power Station . . . . . . . 6 3 Other Transportation Facilities in the Vicinity of the

. Catawba Nuclear Power Station . . . . . . . 8 4 Local Government Jurisdictions . . . . . . . . 9 5 Location of Special Facilities . . . . . . . . . 10 6 Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the Catawba Nuclear Power Station . . . . . . . . . . 13 7 Selective Evacuation Zones for the Catawba EPZ . . . 15 8 Time Periods in Which Evacuation Can Occur . . . . 24 9 Population Segments and Evacuation Sequences . . . . 27 l 10 Major Routes Leading out of the EPZ of the Catawba Nuclear Power Station . . . . . . . 38 11 Travel Sheds for Routes Leading Away From the Catawba Nuclear Station . . . . . . . . . 41 12 Evacuation Time for the Permanent Resident Population (Auto-Owning) . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 13 Possible Levels of Traffic Congestion . . . . . . . 55 14 Traffic Congestion Summary . . . . . . .- . . 57 15 Evacuation Times for the Permanent Resident Populat:on (Non-Auto-Owning) . . . . . . . 61 l

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16 Evacuation Times for the Transient Population . . . . 64  !

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17 Evacuation Times for the Special Facilities j Population (Schools) . . . . . . . . . . . 67 j 1

IS Evacuation Times for the Special Facility l Population (Institutions). . . . . . .. . . . 71 l

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l CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION -

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1 PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY The study summarized in this report was made to determine the time needed to I

evacuate the population of the Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Cone (EPZ) surrounding the Catawba Nuclear Station in York County, South Carolina.

LOCATION OF THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION The Catawba Nuclear Station is located on Wylie Lake in northeastern York County, South Carolina (Figure 1). The Catawba Station is 6 miles north of Rock Hill, South Carolina and 17 miles southwest of downtown Charlotte, North Carolina.

STATE AND LOCAL OFF-SITE PREPAREDNESS PLANNING State and local preparedness plans have been developed by the State of South Carolina and York County, the only South Carolina county within the EP .

Similarly, North Carolina and the two North Carolina counties in the EPZ (Gaston and Mecklenburg) have preparedness plans. These plans provide for recources and manpower needed for a successful evaucation of the area, specifically:

e Detailed evacuation plans, addressing notification, routing, manpower and resource requirements, confirmation of evaucation and transpor-tation of non-vehicle-owning population (schools, households without vehicles, and persons in institutions) e Communication within the EPZ, and between the plant, state agen-cies, the counties, and local governments within the EP e Local (city and town) mobilization and decisionmaking e Local notification procedures,' including siren, public address, and telephone notification, procedures for radio and television informa-tion e Detailed traffic control plan l

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e Transoortation for the school population e Transportation for non-vehicle-owning population and persons in institutions .

e Transportation for non-ambulatory population e Reception centersl and procedures for clearing evacuated population through them o f temporary lodging of evacuees Sheltersl or e Manpower (traffic control, supervisory, security, and emergency services) for conducting the evacuation

SUMMARY

OF THE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING EVACUATION TIMES In developing these evacuation time estimates, the population is divided into three segments: (1) permanent resident population (2) transient population and, (3) spe-cial facility population. For each population segment, a series of discrete action steps is identified, and the completion time for each step determined.

The time for completing each step is then linked together statistically to yield the total evacuation time for that population segment.

The apparent advantage of this method is that travel time is estimated for each individual step of the evacuation sequence (for which data are more readily available) rather than for the entire evacuation as a single entity (for which data are non-existent).2 Two cases of evacuation time estimates are made: (1) for fall / winter weekday under normal weather conditions and, (2) a winter weekday under severe weather conditions.

l 1

l

1. In South Carolina, reception centers and shelters are separate facilities, in

North Carolina, the reception and shelter functions are combined into a single facility, designated as " shelters." In North Carolina, the terms " reception l

l centers" and " shelters" are synonomous.

]

2. NUREG 0654, Appendix 4 l

l 1

l 3

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIMES Under normal weather and for the critical time period (weekday during school hours), the maximum evacuation time for the Catawba EPZ is four hours. Times are measured from the beginning of notification until all the population voluntarily leaving the EPZ has done so. The critical component in the evacuation is the permanent resident population; r.Il other segments of the population can be evacuated in less than four hours.

Under severe weather conditions (winter storm) the evacuation time for the Catawba EPZ is 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> and 15 minutes,156 percent of the time required for evacuation under normal weatt.er conditions.

In normal weather, traffic congestion will occur on 11 of the 18 major routes out of the area. At the location of maximum congestion, congestion will occur for 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 15 minutes. In the worst case, a vehicle could spend 60 minutes in traffic delays when evacuating by that route.

On 8 of the 11 routes experiencing traffic congestion, the congestion will end before all permanent resident population has completed preparation to leave home.

On these routes, evacuation time is not determined by traffic congestion but, rather, by the time needed to prepare for leaving home.

On 3 of the 18 routes, traffic congestion will continue until after the time that all the permanent resident population has completed preparations to leave home. On these routes, the maximum evacuation time is determined by the traffic conges-tion.

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l Routes 901, 72, and 322 southbound, and State Routes 5 and 161 running both east and west.

In addition to the interstate, there are several segments of four-lane road in the Rock Hill area. Also, U.S. 321 leaving the EPZ to the northwest and U.S. 21 leaving in the southeast are four-lane roads.

OTHER TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES IN THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION AREA As Figure 3 shows, a Southern Railroad line crosses the southern part of the 10-mile area in an east-west direction and another runs through Rock Hill to Charlotte with an industrial spur just north of Pineville. Along the western edge of the EPZ are the tracks of the Carolina and Northwe' stern Railway.

GOVERNMENTAL JURISDICTIONS Three counties-York, Gaston, and Mecklenburg-are included in the 10-mile radius of the Catawba Station (Figure 4). Six incorporated areas are at least partly within the 10-mile radius of the plant: Pineville, Fort Mill, Rock Hill, York, Clover, and Tega Cay.

SPECIAL FACILITIES WITHIN THE 10-MILE RADIUS OF THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION Figure 5 shows the location of the special facilities in the area. These consist of 43 schools (public and private), 23 day-care centers, 6 nursing homes, 2 hospitals, and the York County. Prison. The schools include Winthrop University and York Technical College in Rock Hill. Nearly all of the schools are in or near the cities, with over one-half in the Rock' Hill area. Two-thirds of the day-care centers are in the Rock Hill area, with the rest in Clover, Fort Mill, or York. The nursing homes are predominantly in Rock Hill. The prison is .,mut two niiles east of York on SC $$.

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.3

CHAPTER 111. THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE FOR THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION GUIDELINES FOR DEFINING THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ)

Federal regulationsl define the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) as an area of about a 10-mile radius from the nuclear power station. Local preparedness planning concentrates on protecting the population of the EPZ from direct radiation exposure.

In defining the EPZ boundary for any particular site, some general guidelines are observed:1 e The EPZ should include approximately the 10-mile radius of the power station. Exclusion of small, lightly populated areas at the 10-mile periphery is permitted when this simplifies the boundary definition.

e The EPZ must be easily identifiable. Rather than strictly following the 10-mile radius, the EPZ boundary should follow nearby natural features (shorelines, streams), man-made features (highways, rail-roads), governmental, and special district boundaries.

e The EPZ boundary should not split major coherent populations which fall at the 10-mile radius (for example, Clover). Rather, the EPZ boundary should either include or exclude such concentrations in their entirety.

e The EPZ boundary should be regular and consistent, with supportable reasons for including areas. Evacuation of large areas or population groups well beyond the 10-mile radius should be avoided.

THE EPZ BOUNDARY FOR THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION There are few dominant natural or political boundary features that could serve as portions of the EPZ boundary 'for the Catawba Nuclear Station. Consequently,

1. NUREG 0654, Appendix 4 i

l 11 I

York, Gaston, and Mecklenburg Counties have identified an EP: border that is based largely on state and local roads (Figure 6).

The resulting EPZ boundary includes at least the 10-mile radius from the Catawba Nuclear Station, except for some small areas totaling just a few square miles. All the areas within 10 miles of Catawba Nuclear Station, but excluded from the EPZ, contain negligible population.

Six incorporated areas-Clover, Fort Mill, Pineville, Rock Hill, Tega Cay, and York-are included in the Catawba EPZ. No incorporated area is divided by the boundary.

Table i summarizes the local governmental jurisdictions within the Catawba EPZ.

SELECTIVE EVACUATION ZONES The division of the Catawba EPZ into selective evacuation zones (Figure 7) is based on the planning zones as established by the States of South Carolina and North Carolina, as well as the local preparedness agencies of Gaston, Mecklenburg, and York Counties. The radial boundaries for these zones are defined by:

e The state and county lines e Rivers and streams such as the Catawba River e Highways, such as York County 81 and South Carolina 161 The circumferential boundaries for these zones are generally def;ned by local roads.

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TABLE 1. LOCAL GOVERNMENT UNITS WITHIN 10-MILE RADIUS AND EPZ OF THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR POWER STATION Portion of Local Government Unit Within 10-Mile Radius Catawba Nuclear of Plant Station EPZ Counties Gaston Part Part Mecklenburg Part Part York Part Part incorporated Places Clover Part All Fort Mill All All Pineville P' art All Rock Hill Part All Tega Cay All All York Part All I i l-14

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s { umas Zone or EPZ Boundary k1 Zone Number g}' j Y' 5

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7 f Figure 7. Selective Evacuation Zones for the Catawba EPZ 13

4 l CHAPTER IV. POPULATION OF THE CATAWBA EPZ POPULATION SEGMENTS Separate evacuation time estimates are made for each of the following three components of population in the Catawba EPZ:

1. Permanent Resident Population - Those persons living full-time in the Catawba EPZ. Two subgroups of permanent residents are recognized:

o Vehicle-Owning Population - Those permanent residents hav-ing a vehicle available for their evacuation from the EPI. e Non-Vehicle-Owning Population - Those permanent residents not having a vehicle available for their evacuation from the Catawba EPZ and who, therefore, must be transported by other means. There are an estimated 93,483 permanent residents in the Catawba EPZ (Table 2).

2. Transient Population! - Non-residents of the EPZ temporarily within it, primarily for the purpose of recreation. A maximum transient population of 89,669 persons in the EPZ (Table 2) was estimated from base year surveys and forecasts.

3. Special Facility Populationi - Concentrations of population in insti-tutions. This includes schools, university campus, hospitals, nursing homes, day care centers, and the prison. There is a reported special facility population of 36,134 persons in the EPZ on a weekday when schools are in session (Table 2).

SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION l Table 3 lists the special facilities in the Catawba EPZ and gives thp. populatiuns and subarea locations. As indicated in Table 3, the school population accounts for

1. Some elements of population may be counted twice, both as resident population and as transient /special population. This double-counting is immaterial to the estimates of evacuation time.

16 1

l TABLE 2. POPULATION OF THE CATAWBA EPZ AND ZONES Permanent Resident Population Special Vehicle- Non-Vehicle- Transient . Facility Zone Owning Owning Total Population Population Central, NC Portion 321 36 357 654 0 Central, SC Portion 327 36 363 5,552 0 Subtotal, O to 2 Miles 643 72 720 6,206 0 A-1 47 6 53 529 10,187 0 B-1 2,368 263 2,631 2,583 24 C-1 5,545 616 6,161 16,827 1,544 D-1 1,273 141 1,414 109 0 E-1 386 43 h29 0 0 F-1 2,316 257 2,57 3 1,582 364 Subtotal, O to 5 Miles 13,012 1,445 14,457 37,499 1,932 A-2 4,354 484 4,838 4,073 2,862 B-2 S,794 977 9,771 46,826 3,094 C-2 40,468 4,496 44,964 0 21,031 D-2 8,252 917 9,169 0 4,023 E-2 4,461 496 4,957 0 2,820 F-2 2,390 265 2,655 650 0 F-3 2,405 267 2,672 651 469 TOTAL EPZ 84,136 9,347 93,483 89,699 26,231 17

                                    ~        ~                           t y

l TABLE 3. SPECIAL FACILITIES POPULATION IN THE CATAWBA EPZ Location Facility Population (7.one) Gaston County Schools , W.A. Bess 469 F-3 Mecklenburg County Schools Steele Creek Elementary 777 A-2 Pineville Elementary 844 A-2 Olympic High 1,176 A-2 York County Schools A. O. Jones School 563 B-2 Alternative School 76 C-2 Belleview Elementary 450 C-2 Bethel Elementary School 364 F-1 Career Development Center 862 C-2 Castle Heights Junior High 960 C-2 Catawba School 445 C-1 Clover High School 1,008 E-2 Clover Junior High 596 E-2 Clover Middle School 561 E-2 Ebenezer Avenue Elementary 431 C-2 Ebinport Elementary 417 C-2 Edgewood Center 116 C-2 Episcopal Church Home for Children 62 D-2 Finley Road Elementary 453 C-2 Fort Mill High School 915 B-2 Fort Mill Junior High School 250 B-2 Harold C. Johnson Middle School 1,C25 D-2 3efferson Elementary 715 D-2 Kinard Elementary School 591 E-2 McCelvery Elementary 686 C-1 Mount Gallant Elementary 790 D-2 Northside Elementary 454 C-2 Northwestern High School 1,322 C-2 Oakdale Elementary 448 C-2 Rawlinson Road Junior High 1,251 C-2 Richmond Drive Elementary 452 C-2 Riverview Primary and Elementary Complex 1,292 B-2 Rosewood Elementary 389 C-1 , St. Anne's 171 C-2 1 18 l

                                                .-e ,     . - _ , ,   .,        .   ,

l Table 3, Continued Location Facility Population Cone) York County Schools (continued) Sullivan Junior High 1,010 C-2 Sunset Park Elementary 458 C-2 Sylvia Circle Elementary 369 C-2 Trinity Christian ' 324 C-2 Winthrop College 4,881 C-2 York Christian School 140 D-2 York Comprehensive High and 1,070 D-2 Johnson Vocational York Road Elementary 562 C-2 York Technical College 2,850 C-2 Clinton College 275 C-2 Day Care Centers Adams Care Center 21 , C-2 Child Development Center 62 E-2 Children's Christian 119 C-2 Children's Wonderworld 70 C-2 College Park Nursery 30 C-2 Davis Day Care Center 33 C-2 Ebenezer Day Care Center,Inc. 32 C-2 Emmitt Scott Day Care 85 C-2 Jimmy's Day Care 40 C-2 Kiddie Kollege Child Development Center 200 C ' LaPetite Academy 75 C-2 LaPetite Academy 47 C-2 Little Fox Nursery - 33 B-2 Little Peoples Day Care 60 C-2 Mt. Gallant Day Care ~ .49 C-1 Pine Grove Day Care Center 30- D-2 R. H. Comprehensive Day Care '114 C-2 Tega Cay Day Care 24 B-1 Toddler House Nursery

• 40 C-2 Wards Wonderland 35 B-2 Wee Care Day Care Nursery 63 C-2 Whiteheads Kiddie Kare 45 C-2 Yours, Mine and Ours ,

                                                           '45       D-2            -

19

Table 3, Continued Location Facility Population Conel Hospitals Divine Savior Hospital 51 D-2' Piedmont Medical Center 160 C-2 Nursing Homes Anne's Convalescence Home 62 C-2 Divine Savior Home 51 D-2 Fallaw Residential Care 37 C-2 Meadow Haven Nursing Center 132 C-2 Rock Hill Convalescence Center 141 C-2 Sunshine Homes 10 D-2 Penal Institutions Clover Detention Center 2 E-2 Fort Mill Detention Center . 6 B-2 Rock Hill Detention Center (Cherry Road) 14 C-2 Rock Hill Detention Center (City Hall) 4 C-2 York County Prison 45 D-2 York Detention Center 6 D-2 20

S . - S i l almost all of the special facility population. The other special facilities in the EPZ ^ are day care centers, Piedmont Medical Cente , Divine Sav.or llospital, six nursing homes, and the York County Prison.

l POPUI.ATION DISTRIBUTION t The majority of the population in the Catawba EPZ is concentrated in the Rock Hill atea. Zone C-2, which includes Rock Hi!!, has 44,964 residents, or 49 percent of the total residential population of the EPZ. The population center nearest to the Catawba Plant (approximately two miles)is Tega Cay with less than 3 percent of the EPZ population. Another 17 percent of the populatior lives in the  !

incorporated areas on the fringe of the EPI-Clover, Fort Mill, Pineville, and York. York County contains 91 percent of the EPZ residential population (85,087 residents). Mecklenburg County contains another 6 percent (5,724 residents), and Gaston County contains the remaining 3 percent (2,672 residents). l S t 21

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              .      ,N                                       i N                      CHAPYER V. THE EVACUAT{os SEQUENCE FOR THE CATAWBA EMERGENCY Pl.ANNING ZONE (EPZ)
                                                                                                           ~                                    ~

t. Evacuation is inter ded to remove the population of the Catawba EPZ as rapidly as possible. Ev2cuees, are directed to designated reception centers where they are screened for radiolog! cal exposure. Evacuees are then lodged temporarily, or they

                                                       ~

go to destinations of their own choosing-primarily homes of neitby relatives and l' friends, s s:$ s s R,, .- i s, Wherever .;:oss,ible, the evacuating population will le'a've the3'EPZ in private ., automobilesc.f Pe? sons without transportation will be transported by buses, ambu-s. 3 - . - 1 lances, or other 'avsilable'yAicles.

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                    ^            Most motori6s will leave the EPZ by the most direct route; that is, the shortest route out of the EPZ,l Traffic direction at some key location's; particularly the
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U.S. 21 arid I-77 interchange near Rock Hill and the intersection of S.C. 901 and S.C. 72, will help balance the traff,1c volumes on the evacuation routes. Except at those two locadon?s,-normal traffic flow will be observed, with streets open to all

                                                                                                                                                    -5               -

traffic and b5ctioning in their usualy_ nann'er. , 1 i

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                    ~ , Separate evacuation time estimates are made for the three population groups
                              " identified in Chaper IV: (1) permanent residenis, . (2) transient population, and (3) special facility population. Each of these[gr,oups follow a different procedure in evacuation:

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                                                                                                                             ,\              g e            Permanent Resident Population - The vehicle-owning permanent resident population, af ter receivinif the broadcast instructions to
                                             ' 's      evacuate, assembles by Efamily atlh6rned(except for children at school), prepar'es for evaeuating the ,horne,                                   and drives out of the EPZ.

g -- s The non-vehicle-owning permanent resident population prepares for leaving their homes and will t6en be @ansportid odt of the EPZ in

                                                      'ouses or other vehicles.                              .                  A          q@

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                                ,q.      e.            Transient Population - The' . transient populationc af ter receiving .

instructions to evacuate, will assemble the . group (if any) that is x'A traveling together, and will drive out of the EPI, using their private e.

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vehicles. Unescorted children at Carowinds Theme Park will be taken to reception centers in Mecklenburg County by Charlotte Transit System buses. e Special Facility Pooulation - The school population (public and pri-vate) is transported by school bus directly from the schools, and is under control of school staff. Persons in institutions (hospitals, nursing homes, etc.) are prepared for evacuation, then transported out of the EPZ in buses, ambulances, emergency vehicles, and possibly other vehicles. TIME PERIODS IN WHICH EVACUATION MIGHT OCCUR The procedure for evacuating the Catawba EPZ will vary, depending on the time of day, day of week, and season of the year in which the evacuation occurs. Figure 8 illustrates the combinations of time, day, and seasons that are considered. Day or Night Evacuation In general, evacuation is likely to be more difficult in the daytime than in the nighttime. During the day, there is.a relatively large chance that f amilies are not assembled at home but, rather, are dispersed at work, shopping, on personal business, etc. On school days, the school population is not at home for most of the daytime period. Also, more transients are in the EPZ during the day. In a night evacuation, the notification process would be slowed by people having to wake up and comprehend the evacuation information being broadcast. Also, additional time (relative to the daytime situation) would be required to prepare vehicles for evacuation in tne dark. On the other hand, for most of the population, the families would be intact at the time of notification, since schools are not in session and relatively few employees are on the job. 23 1 ___ _: j

l [ TIME OF DAY OF TIME OF DAY WEEK YEAR School Year Weekend Summer Day Time Critical School Year Time l Period Weekday V Summer SchoolYear Weekerd Summer Night titi1e Scrioot Year l Weekcay Summer l i ! Figure 8. Time Periods In Which- Evacuation Can Occur l l l l 24 l l l

Weekday or Weekend Evacuation In general, a weekday evacuation is likely to be more difficult than one on a weekend. On a typical weekday, much of the population is away from home, mainly at work. During the school year, the school population is also away from home during the day. On the weekends, on the other hand, a number of peopole are away from the home for reasons other than work or school. However, the assembly of these people at home on a weekend does not present the same problem as assembling them on a typical work and school day, when a much larger percentage is not at home. School Year or Summer Evacuation In general, an evacuation during the school year period is more difficult than an evacuation during the summer season. When schools are in session, a weekday evacuation would have to involve evacuation of the school population. Also, the number of employees at work is at a maximum during the school year period when employment activity is at a maximum and few workers are on vacation. i In the summer period, evacuation can be complicated by the presence of non-residents around or on Lake Wylie and at Carowinds. However, these factors cause less difficulty in evacuation than that caused by the school population on a weekday when school is in session. l i

Critical Time Period Adopted for the Catawba Station Evacuation -

j In estimating the evacuation time for the Catawba EPI, the critical time l period-the time period for which evacuation is likely to require the most time-is j daytime during the school year (Figure 8). During this period, the time needed to assemble family units is likely to be at a maximum since most employees are at 25

d

work at this time. Also, the likelihood of being away from home for other reasons (for example, shopping, personal business, etc.) is fairly high during this period.

Finally, evacuation during the school year raises issues of school population evacuation which do not exist in other time periods. POPULATION SEGMENTS TO BE EVACUATED Separate evacuation time estimates are made for each of the three population groups identified in Chapter IV: x e Permanent Residents, who evacuate either in private automobiles (if they are vehicle-owning population) or are transported out in school buses or other vehicles (if they are non-vehicle-owning) e Transient Population, who evacuate primarily in private automobiles e Special Facility Population, who are transported out of the EPZ in school buses, other public vehicles and, in some cases, in private i- automobiles Family Units i Families (excluding children in school) evacuate as units. On weekdays, family members return home from their jobs, shopping, etc. On weekenos, many f amilies l are already assembled and can immediately prepare to leave home. Non-resident families (for example, recreational visitors) are already assembled and evacuate with almost no further preparation. 1 EVACUATION ACTION STEPS For each population segment, the evacuation sequence consists of a series of clearly defined actions, performed in a predictable sequence (see Figure 9).

Subdividing the evacuation process into these discrete steps improves the accuracy

                                                                           ~
      'of the estimates of time needed for the entire evacuation.- In place of a single estimate of the entire evacuation process, for which data are not available, this l

l 26 y , , a '--- , v

n . _- . - _ . - . _ . .- _ . - Permanent Resident Population special Facility Population (VehiclerOwningg (Non Auto Owning) Transient Population (Schoolsl finstitutionsl Receive Receive Receive Receive Receive Notification Notification Notificatiori Notification Notification leave P1 ace Peepare for Assemble Evocuate School gog,it;,, of Woek Evacuating Blome Traveling Pormletion Population Group in Buses U Woek to4 tome Asiemble at Trevel Out '**"* Teavel Collection Points of the EPZ I"" I '" 'I""*I Population in Huses or Special Vehicles Prepose to, Evacuate Evocueling Blome Non Auto-Owning Potmlation in Huses Teovel Out

• of ele EPZ Figure 9. Population Segments and Evacuation Sequences ,

process permits the estimation of time for each individual step, for which data are more readily available, or for which reasonable esitmates can be made. Public Agency and Private Steps Some of the evacuation steps identified in Figure 9 are performed by public agencies or quasi-public bodies, such as volunteer fire departments. For ' a!! population groups, the " Receive Notification" action is the responsibility of public agencies. For those persons evacuated by means other than privately owned vehicles, public agencies have the additional responsibility for the actual transpor-tation out of the EPZ; for example, " Evacuate School Population in Buses,"

   " Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses," etc. For most populations in institutions, the " Mobilize Population" step is also a public agency resonsibility.

Those action steps not the responsibility of public agencies are done at the initiative of the individuals being evacuated. For the vehicle-owning population, all steps after the initial " Receive Notification" are private actions; that is, they are initiated by the individuals being evacuated. Similarly, some steps in the evacuation of non-vehicle-owning households are private steps. EVACUATION OF PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (VEHICLE-OWNING) The following sections describe the sequence of evacuation for the resident vehicle-owning population of the Catawba EPZ during the fall-winter weekday period. Receive Notification The first activity in the evacuation process is the notification of the public that an emergency exists. This includes the sounding of sirens, followed by Emergency Broadcast System (EBS) information, and some direct notification by NOAA radio I alert. I l l l 1 l  ! 28 l l l

) l l Various other back-up measures are used to inform the populatoin which might not

be reached by the above means. Mobile sirens and public . address units will supplement the siren alerting system. Mobile public address units mounted on boats or aircraft will notify boaters on Lake Wylie. '

This notification alerts the public that an emergency exists, and that they should t tune in to radio and television broadcasts for further information. The notifica-tion, by itself, does not inform the public of the nature of the emergency nor of the response that they should make. { Information on the nature of the emergency and instructions on evacuation are given through radio and television broadcasts over cooperating local stations in the Emergency Broadcast System (EBS). j . Leave Place of Work i j The rate at which area workers will leave their jobs to return home to prepare for i evacuation depends on the particular work environment and upon the responsibility j level of the worke . It is to be expected that most of the work force will be able to leave their jobs almost immediately, quite similar to a normal departure from work at the end of the workday. A number of workers, however, will require some job "close-down" time in work situations; for example, those that involve chemical processes, construction equipment, or cash registers in retail sales establishments. } Supervisory employees, managers, and independent business operators will gen-erally require the greatest amount of time to secure their place of work and to assure that all employees and others on the premises have departed. Work-to-Home Travel I Travel of the employees fro n their place of work to home is identical to the daily 1 ' work-to-home travel pattern. The maximum length for work trips for people living and working in the EPI is not likely to exceed 20 miles. An average travel speed of 20 to 30 miles per hour is typical for the work-to-home travel fx area workers. i l l 29 _ _.- ~ . - _ _ _ _ . .

This movement of workers, because of the short time over which it occurs, can be expected to cause some traffic congestion similar to that occurring during the twice-daily work travel peak. The road system can handle this volume of traffic with essentially the same level of service as during the peak hours on a typical working day. Prepare for Evacuating Home People csn be epxected to react differently to any emergency situation, and there is likely to be great differences in the amount of time that residents will spend in preparing to leave their homes. Three factors, in particular, affect the amount of time needed to prepare for evacuating a household:

1. Whether or not adults are at home when notice to evacuate is received. If so, preparation time is shortened (compared to house-holds where no adults are at home) since preparation for evacuation can begin before workers arrive home.

2. Number of children and other dependents at home. These increase the time needed to prepare the household for evacuation.

3. The amount of property to be secured. Farms are the extreme case and may require up to two hours to secure. On the other hand, small households can be prepared for evacuation in minutes.

Travel Out of the EPZ Af ter households are secure, residents of vehicle-owning households will drive out of the EPZ. Most motorists will use the most direct route available. Public agencies will give routing advice for this travel, by means of preparedness plans prior to the emergency and through information broadcasts during the actual evacuation.1.aw enforcement officers will also channel flow of traffic at critical locations as defined in local preparedness plans and in response to actual conditions. 4 30 t

The vehicle-owning resident population will drive to reception centers established outside the EPZ where they will be checked for contamination and reunited with other family members. Evacuees will then either go to a shelter, where they will be lodged temporarily, or to other destinations (homes of friends or relatives) of their own chooting. During the evacuation, normal traffic operations will prevail. Spr.cifica!!y, roads will continue in two-way operation, traffic signals will continue to function, and so 1 forth. At key locations, mainly intersections, traffic control will be under direction of law enforcement officers or other personnel as designated by local , evacuation plans. i On most roads, traffic will flow freely, although at reduced speeds. However, at certain locations and during certain portions of the evacuation period, traffic congestion is expected. The location and extent of this traffic congestion is discussed in Chapter VII of this report. i i EVACUATION OF PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (NON-VEHICLE-OWNING) Receive Notification The procedure for rece!ving broadcast information is the same as for vehicle-owning population (above). This includes the sounding of strens followed by broadcast information and supplemented by mobile public address. Prepare for Evacuating Home This step is the same as for vehicle-owning population (above). As in the case of vehicle-owning population, primary facors in the time required for this action or whether or not an adult is at home at the time of notification, the number of dependents' to be evacuated, and the extent of property to be secured. 31

Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses A significant fraction of the non-vehicle-owning population (perhaps as much as 50 percent) will be evacuated as passengers in private vehicles driven by family,

;                neighbors, or friends. This component of the non-vehicle-owning population is considered as part of the vehicle-owning population, and their evacuation proce-dure follows that of the vehicle-owning population described above.

Persons from non-vehicle-owning households who do not evacuate as passengers in private vehicles will be transported out of the EP2 in publicly owned vehicles, f dispatched by the County preparedness agencies. In York County, South Carolina, and Gaston County, North Carolina, the primary source of vehicles are school buses. Transit buses from Charlotte will be the primary source of vehicles in Mecklenburg County. EVACUATION OF TRANSIENT POPULATION i I Receive Notification i. Most of the industrial transient population will be notified by tone alert receivers, } telephone calls, and the siren system. Transient recreational visitors around Lake ) Wylie are notified by the siren system. Some boaters on the lake will be notified j by mobile public address systems. Assemble Traveling Group The traveling group (usually family) is assembled. Preparations for evacuating (for example, closing a cabin, docking a boat) are made. 1 Travel Out of the EPZ 1 ! After assembling their traveling group, the transient population will drive out of the EPZ using their private vehicles. a 32

         ..                . . . -      =         -      . _-      -

d 7 Transient population will be directed to a reception center. After clearing the reception center, they will return to their homes outside the EP2.  ; Public agencies will give routing advice for this travel through information broadcasts during the evacuation. Law enforcement officers will also direct i traffic flows out of the EPZ. Unescorted children at Carowinds Theme Park will be taken by bus to a reception I . center !n Mecklenburg County where they will be . screened for radiological contamination and reunited with their parents. EVACUATION OF SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (SCHOOLS) i J Receive Notification j Following the decision to evacuate, the counties notify schools directly of the need a . '1 for evacuation. This is done through the siren system and telephone calls directly to the schools. 3 Evacuate School Population in Buses The school population is tran ported directly by bus from ~ school to reception 1 centers. An entire school will be transported to the same reception center. School I children will not return home prior to evacuation. The picking up of school children at school by their families is discouraged. i l All buses normally used within the Catawba EP! will be used for evacuation. i These will be supplemented by buses from outside the EP2, but within the three-county area. , 4 i t i f

. 4 33

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EVACUATION OF SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (INSTITUTIONS) Receive Notification Following the decision to evacuate, the local preparedness agencies will notify institutions direct'ly by telephone calls. Mobilize Population The institutional population is instructed to evacuate by the staff of that particular institution. Necessary personal effects are assembled. Essential medical records are gathered. Evacuate Institutional Population in Buses or Special Vehicles-Buses will pick up ' ambulatory hospital patients, nursing home residents, and other persons not requiring ambulance transportation. These passengers will be trans-ported directly to the alternate relocation facilities. Non-ambulatory persons will be transported directly from institutions by emer-gency vehicles normally based within the EP2, supplemented by emergency vehicles from outside the EPZ.

SUMMARY

OF THE EVACUATION PROCESS In order to examine the " worst case" for which e,vacuation times are at a maximum, the evacuation is assumed to occur during the daytime during the school year. k l Three population groups, having distinctly different evacuation methods, are recognized: o Permanent residents who will evacuate in private vehicles (if vehicle-owning) x who will be transported in transit vehicles (if non-vehicle-owning) 34 l l: i

e Transient population who will evacuate in private vehicles e Special facility population who are transported out of the EP: in school buses, public transit buses, other public vehicles and, in some cases, private automobiles , For each population group, the evacuation sequence consists of a number of clearly 1 defined action steps as summarized in Table 4. e { e

                                       . - -     - .-       .     --        ~- -            --   -

TABLE 4.

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION ACTION STEPS Population Semnent Action Steps and Description Perinanent Resident Population I. RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, inclixting instructions for evacuating (Vehicle-Owning) 2. LEAVE PLACE OF WORK (All enembers of households. 3. WORK-TO-HOME TRAVEL, similar to normal work trip except school children, havir.g 4. PREPARE FOR EVACUATING llOME (close house, secure property) a private vehicle available for 5. TRAVEL OUT OF THE EPZ in private vehicles, using most direct evacuation routes Perinanent Resident Population 1. RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, including instructions for evacuating (Non-Vehicle-Owning) 2. PREPARE FOR EVACUATING IIOME (close house, secure property) (Persons not having a private 3. EVACUATE NON-VEHICLE-OWNING POPULATION IN BUSES from vehicle available for evacuation county school system M Transient Population I. RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, including instructions ior evacuating (Workers, recreational visitors) 2. ASSEMBLE TRAVELING GROUP -

3. TR AVEL OUT OF THE EPZ in private vehicles Special Facility Population 1. RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, inclixfing instructions for evacuating (Scimmis) 2. EVACUATE SCHOOL POPULATION IN BUSES Special Facility Population I.

RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, inclixting instructions for evacuating (hsstitutions) 2. MOBILIZE POPULATION, prepare population for evacuation

3. EVACUATE INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION IN BUSES OR SPECIAL VElllCLES

                                                                               - ~     .  .     - - - - . _                         _     . - - -   .. _ _ _ _ . - -

l l CHAPTER VI. EVACUATION ROUTES - 1 DESIGNATED EVACUATION ROUTES j in the event evacuation is necessary, people in the EPZ will be instructed to leave

                                                                   . the area using the f astest route available. No attempt will be made to limit evacuation traffic to a few selected roads (as is sometimes done for security or to channel evacuees to reception centers). Thus, every road out of the EPZ will carry g                                                                     some evacuation traffic. The most significant of these are shown in Figure 10.

i To facilitate movement to the reception centers, where location may be unfamiliar i ' to some evacuees, the emergency preparedness officials for Gaston, Mecklenburg, i and York Counties and the States of North and South Carolina have designated, or j will designate, a series of evacuation routes leading from the EPZ boundary to the [ reception centers. Maps showing these routes will be widely distributed in the EPZ i to guide people expeditiously to their designated reception center. f l CAPACITIES OF THE EVACUATION ROUTES ' i In general, the capacity of an evacuation route is determined by the capacities of , j lts intersections, rather than by the cape. city of the road at non-intersection j locations. For most of the , evacuation routes, the capacity is determined at a , j critical intersection, or " bottleneck" location. These are locations where: 1) the j evacuation route has a hig5 traffic voleme, and 2) cross-street traffic volume at. j the Instersection is high, reducing the amount of time available for the major evacuation flow to enter the intersection. *' 4 The capacity of an intersection is based on maximum v' ehicular flow of 1,300 l . vehicles per lane hourly, with full assignment of the right-of-way (that is,1,500 t vehicles hourly if there is no intersecting traffic).1 At the critical intersections 4 L

1. Elahway Capacity Manual.1965, Highway Research Board Specla! Record

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Figure 10. Major Routes Leading out of the EPZ of the Catawba Nuclear Power Station 33

which are establishing the capacity on the evacuation routes, the total capacity is adjusted downward to 80 percent of the maximum to allow for intersecting traffic. The resulting capacity is 1,200 vehicles per lane per hour. The capacities of each of 18 major routes out of the EPZ are indicated in Table 5. EVACUATION TRAVELSHEDS

The travelshed of a particular evacuation route is the " catchment" area of population for that route; that is, the area for which that route is the fastest means of exit from the EPZ.

The travelsheds for the evacuation routes in the Catawba EPZ are determined by 4 extending the major evacuation routes, as identified in Figure 10, so that a!! of the 1 road systems in the EPZ connect to one or another of the evacuation routes. This process is simple for those sections of roadway immediately adjacent to the major evacuation routes, where it is obvious which sections of roadway feed any given evacuation route. For sections more distant from the major evacuation routes, the evacuation path is not as clear, and routings are made on the basis of travel time estimates. Some sections of roadway are midway between evacuation routes, and

;      are equally well served by two different routes. These areas define the boundaries between the travelshed areas, for different evacuation routes as indicated in

Figure 11.

DISTRIBUTION OF TRAFFIC TO THE EVACUATION ROUTES The population of the travelshed area for each evacuation route was determined in

two steps. First, the EPZ was subdivided into 160 segments, each defined by its distance and direction from the nuclear station. Census data for 1980 was used to determine the population of each segment. The population within each segment was then apportioned to the routes leading from that segment out of the EPI.

Table 6 shows the population of the travelshed for each of the major routes. I i 39

e TABLE 5. CAPACITY OF MAJOR EVACUATION ROUTES Number Outbound Evacuation of Lanesl Type of Road Capacity 2 Lyle Boulevard EB 4 Urban Arterial 2,400 I-77 SB 4 Interstate 3,000 US 21 SB 4 Semi-Rural Arterial 3 2,400 SC 901 (SC 72) SB 4 Semi-Rural Arterial 2,400 SC 322 SB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 US 321 SB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 SC 5 WB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 SC 161 WB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 York 150 WB 2 Rural Secondary 1,200 SC 55 WB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 US 321 NB 4 Rural Arterial 2,400 NC 274 NB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 NC 279 NB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 NC 160 NB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 NC 49 NB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 I-77 NB 4 Interstate 3,000 US 521 NB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 SC 160 EB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200

1. Total lanes, both directions.

2. Hourly vehicles, outbound only. Obtained from Highway Capacity Manual, 1965, Highway Research Board Special Report Number 87.

3. Semi-rural areas are characterized by light density development along roadside.

4. SC 901 changes from four to two lanes near EPZ boundary, but SC 72 provides a lane to carry half the traffic the rest of the way out of, the EP2.

40

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Figure 11. Travel Sheds for Routes Leading Away From the Catawba Nuclear Station j s l l l I i I 1

l TABLE 6. TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND CAPACITIES FOR MAJOR EVACUATION ROUTES Population Vehicles Hourly Hours of Evacuation Assigned Assigned Vehicle Traffic Route to Routel to Route 2 Capacity Flow 3 Lyle Boulevard EB 4,459 - 1,917 2,400 0.8 I-77 SB 8,079 3,473 3,000 1.2 US 21 SB 15,897 6,835 2,400 2.8 SC 901 (SC 72) SB 13,556- 5,829 2,400 2.4 SC 322 SB 5,284 2,272 1,200 1.9 US 321 SB 2,281 980 1,200 0.8 SC5WB 1,763 758 1,200 0.6 SC 161 WB 2,468 1,061 1,200 0.9 York 150 WB 1,470 632 1,200 0.5 SC 55 WB 1,286 552 1,200 0.5 US 321 NB 3,275 1,408 2,400 0.6 NC 274 NB 1,068 459 1,200 0.4 NC 279 NB 4,529 1,947 1,200 1.6 NC 160 NB 1,721 739 1,200 - 0.6 NC 49 NB 2,213 951 1,200 0.8 l I-77 NB 10,298 4,428 3,000 1.5 US 521 NB 1,325 655 1,200 0.6 SC 160 EB 4,926 2,118 1,200 1.8

1. Based on apportionment of population (Chapter IV) to the evacuation travelshed areas (Figure !!).

2. Based on vehicle ownership data from the 1980 census (Appendix B).

3. Assumes continuous flow of all traffic assigned to that route.

42

RELATIONSHIP OF EVACUATION TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND ROUTE CAPACITIES 4 Table 6 summarizes, for each of the 18 individual evacuation routes, the traffic capacity of the route and the volume of evacuation traffic assigned to that route. The resulting hours of traffic flow are then calculated. This measure does not represent the total evacuation time; for example, it does not include the time needed for notification or for preparing to leave home. Rather, the " Hours of Traffic Flow" statistic is an Indication of the level of traffic congestion that can be anticipated on the route. 4 l . i 4 1 e '

CHAPTER Vll.

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES CONDITIONS AND TIME PERIODS Evacuation time estimates are made for two conditions:

1. Fall / winter day, with normal weather conditions. This condition, as explained in Chapter V, represents the " critical" time period for which evacuation times are likely to be at their maximum. The maximum transient population is assumed to be in the EPZ at this time.

2. Fall / winter day, with severe weather conditions (defined as a winter storm, with icy road conditions). . This case represents the " critical" time period (as explained in Chapter V) under unfavorable weather.

conditions which further extend the required evacuation times. Detailed evacuation times are first calculated for the " fall / winter day" (normal weather) conditions, then adjusted to yleid the " fall / winter" day (severe weather) conditions. METHOD FOR ESTIMATING EVACUATION TIME Population Sernents Evacuation time is estimated separately for each of the three population groups discussed earlier: (1) permanent resident population, (2) transient population and, (3) special f acility population. These evacuation time estimates assume that effective local preparedness plans are in operation, and that virtually complete coverage of the EP! population with a prompt alerting and notification system is achieved. This notification time reflects the siren coverage expected with the system already designed. 44

^ f l ? 1 i i

!            Action Steps l
;            Each population segment follows a specific sequence of action steps in evacuating the EPZ. (See Chapter V for a detailed diset.ssion of these steps.) The time needed to complete each of these steps is stated as the distribution relating the fraction of

the population completing a particular step to the elapsed time after that action i step is first started.

} Time Required for a Series of Action Steps 4 The total evacuation time is calculated by linking together the time required to i complete the individual steps. The resulting total time for evacuation is calculated (as are the times for the individual steps) as a distribution of time, showing the fraction of the population which completes the total evacuation process within a given amount of elapsed time. The EVACURVE program (Appendix C) is used to compute these elapsed times. f Distribution of the Traffic to the Evacuation Routes The evacuation traffic is distributed to the available roads out of the EPZ (Chapter VI). Delays due to tratfic congestion are calculated, and the evacuation times are adjusted to reflect these delays. l EVACUATION TIME FOR THE PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (VEHICLE-

!           OWNING), FALL / WINTER WEEKDAY, NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS i

l The evacuation sequence for the permanent resident vehicle-owning population includes five steps: (1) Receive Notification,(2) Leave Place of Work, (3) Work-to . Home Travel,(4) Prepare for Evacuating Home and,(h) Drive Out of the EPZ. The j time required ' to complete each of these steps is established. Then, a total l, evacuation time for the vehicle-owning population is obtained by combining the time required for each of the five action steps. (

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l I Receive Notification Some of the vehicle-owning permanent resident population receives the broadcast information almost immediately; for example,10 percent of thi,s population is assumed to receive broadcast information in 15 minutes (Table 7). These are individuals who immediately comprehend the notification and promptly tune into the EBS broadcasts. This group also includes individuals already listening to radio and television broadcasts and are, therefore, informed immediately of the emer-gency and.the need to evacuate the EPZ. TABLE 7. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

                              " RECEIVE NOTIFICATION" STEP Estimated Time After Start of       Percentage of Population Notification           Receiving Notification 15 minutes                       10 20 minutes                       10

25 minutes 30 30 minutes 30 35 minutes 10 40 minutes 5 45 minutes 5 A large fraction of the population of the EP2 is estimated to receive the broadcast information between 20 and 30 minutes after the start of notification. These individuals require several minutes to comprehend the notification, and then several more minutes to tune into the EBS broadcasts.

At the high end of the range, some of the population (10 percent of the total) are assumed to require over 35 minutes to receive the broadcast information. These 46

I are mainly persons not reached immediately by the notification system, not under. standing the significance of the stren warning, or without access to a radio or television set. This element of the population is notified, in general, by supplementary methods, such a mobile public address, etc. It is estimated that all of th' epopulation receives the broadcast Information within 45 minutes of the start of notification. Leave Place of Work it is estimated that a sizeable portion of the permanent resident vehicle-owning population can leave work within 10 minutes af ter receiving the broadcast information, or after this information is conveyed to them by their employer (Table 8). In general, these are workers not having managerial responsibility or whose jobs do not require shutdown time. TABLE 8. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

                               " LEAVE PLACE OF WORK" STEP Estimated Time After Start of          Percentage of Workers Notification             Leaving Place of Work 10 minutes                        50 15 minutes                        30 20 minutes                         10 30 minutes                          5 45 minutes                          3 Another large group of workers (an estimated 40 percent of the total) will need between 10 and 20 minutes to leave their place of work. These are employees whose jobs require some shutdown time, and managers who remain until other employees have lef t.

l 47

l - ! At the high end of the range, an estimated'5 percent of the workers require over 30 1 mintues to prepare for leaving work. These Individuals are mainly managers,

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                                        '[                  ' persons responsible for securing cash or property, and persons needed to shut down                                                                              !

Industrial processes. ~

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j A!! employees complete preparation to leave'their place of work within 45 minutes l of receiving the broadcast information (Table 8). l t i [ Work-to-Home Trave! ll ' l' ' ' ' The time needed for this step is similar to that needed for the daily trip home during the af ternoon peak hour. This time depends pr;marily on the distance from l" work to home. This distribution of estimated travel-to-home time is for only those

                                                          /

workers having their residence end place of work in the EPZ. At the low end of the e .. . range, an estimated 50 percent of the workers can complete the trip home within !' . 5 minutes (Table 9). Another large group of workers live within 5 miles of their job

                                                           ' and cari return home in 10 to 15 minutes. At the uppe'r' end of the range, an l
                                                      ,      :~estlinated 20 percent of all employees will need more than 15 minutes for their l                                                  ,

travel horni. - f I * # l - s TABLE 9. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR l " WORK-TO-HOME TRAVEL" STEP l \ . Time Af ter Workers . Estl mated I

                                                                                                                       . Begin to Leave'                                                              Percentage of Workers

_ Place of _ Work m.. Arrivint at Home _~ , i 5 minutes " -,.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     - 30 10 minutes                                                                                  30 7,                              15 minuies                                                                                   10 '
                                                                                             ,' ' '                ,      20 mintses -                                                          r<                    10
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Some employees weking outside . . << the EP2,'particularly at locations near the EP: [ boundary, willTretGen home before the EP: Is closed to' entering traffic and will

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I l l evacuate in the same manner as vehicle-owning households. However, employees l who work at some distance outside the EPZ may not be able to enter the EP: since incoming traffic will be restricted as soon as possible af ter the start of the evacuation. Prepare for Evacuatina Home l l The time needed to prepare for evacuating the home depends on three fac-tors (1) whether or not an adult member of the household is home at the time of  ; , notification, (2) the number of dependents in the household, and (3) the amount of household property to be secured prior to evacuation. At the low end of the range, an estimated 15 percent of all the vehicle-owning population can prepare for evacuating their households within 20 minutes af ter the arrival of the workers from their jobs (Table 10). These are generally households with an adult member present at home, with few dependents, and no property to be secured. i TABLE 10. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

                        " PREPARE FOR EVACUATING HOME" 5TEP Estimated Percent.ge Time After Workers          of Vehicle-Owning l

Arrive Home Pooulation Leavina Home 1 15 minutes 10 20 minutes 5 l 23 minutes 10 30 minutes 13 35 minutes 13 40 minutes 25 l 30 minutes 10 60 minutes S 93 minutes 3 l 4 e lef

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home wittiin 40 minutes of the arrival of household workers. These are likely to be households with dependents at home and a typical single-family residence to

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s . . - secure. _~ At the upper end Bf the range, an estimated 20 percent of the population requires overq 40 minutes to prepare for evacuating their homes. Generally, these are hodeholds with more than one dependent and extensive household property to be secured (for example, a f arm). Final Departure Curve _ - Figure 12 illustrates the', distribution of time needed by the EPZ population to complete each of the evacuation steps. The final departure curve (that is, the time , needed to complete all' action steps except~ the final driving fro:n the EPZ) is completed at 3 hours, iO minutes af ter the start-oh notificaiton. (, .

                         ._. Drive Out of the EPZ                                                .

s - The time needed for tiie final ste'p," Drive Out o'I the EPZ," depends on the level of traffic congestion encountereii?in the specRic evacuation route taken. On routes

with no traffic congestion, rma'ximurnt of 15 minutes is needed to drive out of the EPZ, and for such rohtes -

the total evacuation time is 3 hours,25 minutes (3 hours, 10 minutes as noted liYFigbre 12, plus 15 minutes driving time). On some routes with traffic congis' tion, driving times wili; be.. determined by. traffic delays, as Ydiscussed below. \< k~,'" 4'- -\ s Routing - Most motocN'tkwill drive out of the EPZ on the designated ~ evacuation-s ss routes as identified in Chapte- VI of th(s report. Some motorists .will drive out on

           - ~        g roads not designated as evacuation routes.
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        ]15    30 IX  45   00    15   30 45     00    15  30     45     00    15 30 45    00   15 30 45    00 1 Hour              2 Hours                3 Hours            4 Hours          5 Hours Time from Start of Notification Figure 12. Evacuation Time for the Permanent Resident Population (Auto-Owning)

Public agencies will give routing advice for this travel by means of preparedness plans prior to the emergency and through information broadcasts during the actual evacuation. Traffic Control- At critical locations-primarily key intersections within the EPZ-traffic will be controlled by State and local law enforcement agencies as established in local preparedness plans. This traffic control will accomplish two i purposes- (1) ensure orderly traffic flow at that particular location, and (2) direct motorists to the best available route out of the EPZ. During the evacuation, normal traffic control will continue, two-way stre'ets will operate in their usual manner as two-way streets, and traffic control devices, such as signals, will continue to function. The only exception will be the replacing of traffic signal control at some key intersections with traffic direction by law enforcement officers. Method for Analyzinz Evacuation Traffic Flows - The evacuation traffic flow is analyzed with a computer program package consisting of two modules:

1. EVACURVE, which calculates the final departure curves (Figure 12) j giving the distribution of times at which the vehicle-owning popula-tion completes preparations to leave home and enters the road system.

The EVACURVE module calculates the departure curve from the series of time distributions for completing each step of the evacua-tion sequence. Statistically, each time distribution for an individual step is a conditional' probability distribution; the final departure curve is obtained by computing the joint probability distribution of all the steps. l 2. The QUEUE module, which simulates the flow of traffic through the evacuation routes, and identifies the location and extent of traffic congestion. Inputs to the QUEUE module are the evacuation network and the - distribution of traffic onto .this network. The program then calcu-- lates the arrival and departure of traffic at all locations throughout the evacuation network. This simulation is iterative, being repeated for 15-minute intervais of the evacuation period. T I 52 g "w5 v ' rvge---a- ,4 y

The QUEUE module identifies locations at which traffic congestion occurs, and calculates the extent of such congestion. Measures which - are computed include the time period over which congestion occurs at a particular location, the maximum delay experienced by a vehicle passing through any congested location and the extent (distance) of congestion on the evacuation road network. 4 I Traffic Congestion - The QUEUE program shows that on 6 of the IS major routes out of the EPZ, the road capacities exceed the rate at which vehicles-leave households. On these routes, there is no congestion at any point in the evacuation process, and the time needed to drive out of the EPZ is determined solely by the free-flow travel time. On 11 of the 18 major routes, traffic back ups (queues) will form during some part of the evacuation process. These are caused as the vehicle-owning population completes the necessary preparations to leave thier homes and enters the street system at a rate greater than the capacity of that street system to carry them. As a consequence, traffic begins to back up, starting at critical intersections, where:

1. Substantial volumes of evacuating traffic converge onto the evacua-tion route

2. The capacity of the evacuation rotue is restricted by a bridge, ramp, pavement width, etc.

3. Cross street traffic is substantial, reducing the amount of time available for the movement of evacuating traffic at that point -

Traffic congestion first appears as the volume of traffic entering the street system begins to increase sharply, at about I hour, 40 minutes af ter the start of notification. Once started, congestion spreads rapidly in the upstream direction, blocking traffic attempting to enter the evacuation route from side roads. In the worst case, congestion spreads generally throughout an area, with all arterial and collector streets and even some local streets blocked. l l During the period in which this congestion is occurring, the rate of evacuation is I fixed by the capacity of the street system and is no longer determined by the rate at which the population finishes preparations to leave their households.' Motorists J l 53 1 I

leaving their homes and entering the street system during such a period are simply

         " stored" in traffic queues in the street system.

Possible Levels of Traffic Congestion - Three possible conditions of traffic congestion are analyzed in Figure 13. In the instance with no traffic congestion (Type "A" in Figure 13), the departure from the EPZ depentis solely on the rate at which people prepare to leave their households and drive, in a free-flow manner, out of the EPZ. At no point in the evacuation period does traffic congestion slow this progress out of the EPZ. Seven routes out of the Catawba EPZ have this pattern of traffic flows. On routes where traffic congestion occurs (Types "B" and "C" in Figure 13), traffic congestion appears when the rate of vehicles entering the street exceeds the capability of the street to carry them. Congestion continues to build as long as the rate of vehicles entering the street system continues to exceed the vehicular capacity of the evacuation route. At some point in the evacuation process, the rate at which vehicles enter the street system reaches a maximum and begins to decrease. Congestion begins to diminish as the rate of vehicles entering the street system begins to fall below the capacity of the evacuation route to carry them. This decrease in traffic congestion continues until the queues disappear and free traffic flow is restored on the evacuation route. In less severe instances of congestion (Type "B" in Figure 13), this occurs before the population has finished preparations to leave home. From the point at which congestion ends until the completion of evacuation, the rate of evacuation is once again determined by the rate at which households complete their preparation to leave home and enter the street system. Eight routes out of the Catawba EPZ have this traffic pattern. l I 54 i

I l g A. FREE TRAFFIC FLOW, NO CONGESTION Out j r of EPZ

            *I        Prepare TB                         D
         ,    -h -Leave Home '

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                                                !b Evacuation  Determined by Rate E                                                      Free-Flow y                                                   Driving Time c.

Time y B, CONGESTION OCCURS AND ENDS BEFORE ALL POPULATION LEAVES HOME e - Prepare to

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Figure 13. Possible Levels of Traffic Congestion

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i l l. I In the more severe instances of congestion (Type "C" in Figure 13), the traffic

,          back-ups continue even after all the population has completed preparations to leave home. In this type of congestion, the back-ups are too large to be discharged before all population has completed preparations to leave home. In this case, evacuation times are no longer dictated by the time at which preparations for leaving home plus a free-flow driving time but, rather, by the traffic capacity of the evacuation route. Three routes out of the Catawba EPZ have this traffic pattern.

Location of Traffic Congestion - Figure 14 illustrates the location of traffic congestion in the Catawba EPZ, and indicates the extent of the anticipated congestion when it is at a maximum. As indicated in Figure 14, the greatest traffic cognestion occurs on US 21 southbound in Rock Hill. Summary of Evacuation Times for the Permanent Resident Population (Vehicle-Owning) - Of the total of 18 major evacuation routes in the Catawba EPZ,14 have a total evacuation time of 3 hours and 25 minutes (Figure 14). This evacuation time 4 occurs on routes where there is either no traffic congestion at all, or where there is some traffic congestion which ends before all the resident population completes , preparations to leave home. On the remaining three routes, the evacuation time reflects a level of congestion that is not dissipated by the time that the population has completed preparations to - leave home. On those routes, congestion continues af ter the population has completed preparations to leave home, and this congestion then determines the total evacuation times. Evacuation time for US 21 is 4 hours, time for I-77 is 3 hours 45 minutes, and SC 901 is 3 hours 30 minutes. 4 56

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15 to30 Minute Delay More than 30 Minute Delay x:xx Maximum Evacuation Time on Route NC 274 NB NC279 NB  :/ 3:25 3:25 h .,[ US 321 NB 2 . ..#*. 3 .

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Figure 14 Traffic Congestion Summary

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• EVACUATION TIME FOR THE PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION i (NON-VEHICLE-OWNING) '

The evacuation of the non-vehicle-owning population includes three steps: (1) Receive Notification; (2) Prepare for Evacuating Home; and (3) Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses. The time required to complete each of these steps is established, and the total time for the evacuation of the non-vehicle-owning population is obtained by combining the time required for each of the steps. Receive Notification Notification times and the explanation for these times are the same as for the permanent resident vehicle-owning population discussed above. All of the non-vehicle-owning population is notified within 45 minutes of the start of notification. Prepare for Evacuating Home The time needed to prepare for evacuating the home depends on: (1) whether or not an adult member of the household is home at the time of notification; (2) the number of dependents in the household; and (3) the amount of household property to be secured before the f amily can evacuate. It is estimated that 20 percent of the non-vehicle-owning population can prepare to leave home within 20 minutes of receiving notification to evacuate (Table 11). Typically, these are small households with few dependents and no property to secure before leaving. At the upper end of the range, it is estimated that 50 percent of the non-vehicle-- owning population needs 30 to 45 minutes to prepare for leaving home. These are generally households with a dependent at home and a residence to secure before leaving. 53

TABLE 11. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

                           " PREPARE FOR EVACUATING HOME" STEP FOR NON-VEHICLE-OWNING POPULATION Time After               Estimated Percentage Receiving             of Population Completing Notification          Preparations to Leave Home 15 minutes                       10 20 minutes                       10 25 minutes                       10 30 minutes                       20 35 minutes                       20 40 minutes                       20 45 minutes                       10 Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses A bus fleet large enough to carry the non-vehicle-owning population in less than two round trips per bus out of the EPZ is assumed in estimating the evacuation time. Local plans call for this fleet to be drawn from school buses from York, Mecklenburg, and Gaston Counties, other nearby counties, and from the public transit system in Charlotte.

It is estimated that one-half of the non-vehicle-owning population can be evacu-ated by 2 hours and 5 minutes after the start of notification (Table 12). The remainder of the non-vehicle-owning population is estimated to be evacuated by 3 hours after the start of evacuation. 59

TABLE 12. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR " EVACUATE

    .               NON-VEHICLE-OWNING POPULATION IN BUSES" STEP Estimated Percentage of Non-Vehicle-Owning Time After Start of    .           Population Notification               Evacuated in Buses I hour,45 minutes                      25 2 hours, 5 minutes                      25 2 hours,25 minutes                     25 3 hours                                 25 Summary of E' acuation Times for the Permanent Resident Population (Non-Vehicle-Owning)

The time required for completion of the various steps in the evacuation of the non-vehicle-owning population is summarized in Figure 15. The determining factor in the time needed for the evacuation of the non-vehicle-owning population is the time needed for this population to complete preparations for leaving home and to assemble at the collection points. EVACUATION TIME FOR THE TRANSIENT POPULATION The evacuation sequence for the transient population includes three steps: (1) Receive Notification, (2) Assemble Traveling Group, and (3) Drive Out of the EPZ. The time required to complete each of these steps is established. A total evacuation time for the transient population is obtained by combining the time required for each of the three action steps, l Receive Notification l Notification times and the explanation for these times are the same as for the l- permanent resident' vehicle-owning population discussed previously. All of the i 60

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                               =

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                                                '                                           l 1

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trar.sient population is assumed to be notified within 45 minutes of the start of notification. Assemble Traveling Group The traveling group (usually family or co-workers) is assembled and prepared for evacuation. It is assumed that some groups (for exam ~ple, employees at work) can assemble and prepare for evacuation almost immediately. This is reflected in the distribution in Table 13, which estimates that 50 percent of the transient popula-tion can assemble their traveling group and prepare to depart within 13 minutes after receiving instructions to evacuate. TABLE 13. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

                            " ASSEMBLE TRAVELING GROUP" STEP FOR TRANSIENT POPULATION Time After                 Estimated Percentage Receiving               of Population Assembling l                        Notification_

Traveling Group 10 20 15 30 , 20 30 30 20 At the other end of the distribution, some transient groups will require up to an estimated 30 minutes to assemble their groups and prepare to evacuate. Examples of this situation are residents at seasonal homes at Lake Wylie who would have to complete certain preparations, such as securing boats and cabins, before evacu-ating the area. 62

l l Drive Out of the EPZ After assembling their traveling group and completing preparations to evacuate, the transient population will drive out of the EPZ using their private vehicles. In evacuating the EPZ, the transient population will encounter free-flow traffic conditions (i.e., no congestion) throughout their trip out of the EPZ. This is a result of the small size of the transient population and the early stage at which

they begin to evacuate. All transient population is evacuated from the EPZ before the major part of the traffic build up from the permanent resident population begins to occur.

i' Summary of Evacuation Times for the Transient Population a It is estimated that some of the transient population in the EPZ evacuates within 45 minutes of the start of notification (Figure 16). The transient population is estimated to complete their trips out of the EPZ at I hour and 45 minutes af ter the start of notification. Unusual Concentrations of Transients In some situations, unusually large concentrations of transient population may be present within the EPZ at: (1) Carowinds Theme Park and (2) PTL grounds in York County. Evacuation times were estimated for both locations, under assumption of their maximum reported attendance. For both locations, maximum reported attendances can be evacuated in less than the 3 hours and 25 minutes of the required time for - t vehicle-owning households in a congestion-free evacuation). Consequently, it can be established that evacuation of unusual concentrations of transient population for. Carowinds or PTL will not result in extending evacuation times beyond that required by permanent resident population. i i ( 63 $ v.

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l l l EVACUATION TIME FOR THE SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (SCHOOLS) The evacuation sequence for the school population includes two steps: (1) Receive Notification and (2) Evacuate School Population in Buses. Receive Notification School administrations will be notified immediately through radio and telephone cad!s. Student bodies will then be notified immediately through school public address systems. After notification, preparation to leave the school premises is almost immediate (similar to a routine fire drill). The majority of the school population is assumed to be notified within 15 minutes of the start of notification (Table 14). All school population is assumed to be notified within 25 minutes of the start of notification. TABLE 14. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR

                               " RECEIVE NOTIFICATION" STEP FOR SCHOOL POPULATION Estimated Percentage Time After Start                  of Population of Notification           Receiving Notification 10 minutes                         10 15 minutes                        40 20 minutes                         20 25 minutes                          10 Evacuate School Population in Buses The determining factor in the time needed for evacuation of the school population-in buses is the time required for mobilizing the bus fleet and bringing buses to the schools.

65 l 1

t , A bus fleet sufficiently large to carry the entire school population is assumed in estimating the evacuation time. This fleet will be drawn from York, Mecklenburg, and Gaston Counties, and from other nearby counties if necessary. 4 As indicated in Table 15, an estimated 20 percent of the school population can be transported out of the EPZ within I hour after the start of notification. These students are transported in vehicles in regular use in the school districts in the EPZ and which can be readily mobilized. Another 60 per' cent of the school population is j assumed to be transported out of the EPZ by I hour and 30 minutes after the start

     . of notification.

i ! TABLE 15. TIME DISTIBUTION FOR j " EVACUATE SCHOOL POPULATION IN BUSES" STEP Estimated Percentage Time After Start of of School Population Notification Evacuated by Bus 60 minutes 20 i 1 hour,15 minutes 35 I hour,30 minutes 25: I. 1 hour,45 minutes 20 5 The students evacuated in these later stages are those riding in buses which are

;        brought from outside the EPZ.

All students are evacuated from the EPZ within I hour and 45 minutes after start of notification. The distribution of the evacuation time for the school population is given in Figure 17. 66

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EVACUATION TIME FOR THE SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (INSTITUTIONS) l The evacuation of the population in institutions involves three steps: (1) Receive Notification; (2) Mobilize Population; and (3) Evacuate Institutional Population in  ; Buses or Special Vehicles. The time time needed to complete each of these steps is established, and the total time for the evacuation of the population in institutions is obtained by combining the time required for each of the three steps. Receive Notification Notification time is the same as for the vehicle-owning population discussed above. All of the population in institutions is assumed to be notified within 45 minutes after the start of notification. Mobilize Population For a significant part of the population in institutions, mobilization can be accomplished almost immediately af ter notification of the need to evacuate. For example, it is estimated that 70 percent of the population in institutions can be mobilized to evacuate within 20 minutes' af ter the start of notification (Table 16). This element of the population is typically ambulatory patients in hospitals. i TABLE 16. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR I

                                       " MOBILIZE POPULATION" STEP FOR POPULATION IN INSTITUTIONS Estimated Percentage Time After Receipt                   Of Population in Of Notification                Institutions Mobilized 10 minutes                              30 20 minutes                              40 30 minutes -                            30 At the upper end of the range, it is estimated that 30 percent of the population in irstitutions requires up to 30 minutes for mobilization (Table 17). . Typica!!y, these -

l I 68. i - _ m

are non-ambulatory patients in hospitals, or other persons (such as prisoners in jails) for whom special treatment is necessary. Evacuate Institutional Population in Buses or Special Vehicles A fleet of buses and emergency vehicles (ambulances, rescue vehicles, vans, etc.) large enough to carry out the institutionalized population of the EPZ in a single round trip (buses) and two round trips (emergency vehicles) is assumed in estimating the evacuation times. The fleet of emergency vehicles will be drawn from operators in the EPZ and surrounding areas. It is estimated that 50 percent of the ambulatory population in institutions can be evacuated by bus by I hour and 35 minutes after the start of notification. The i remainder of the ambulatory population can be evacuated by 2 hours (Table 17). j It is estimated that 50 percent of the non-ambulatory population can be evacuated by emergency vehicle by I hour and 50 minutes af ter the start of notification. The remainder of the non-ambulatory population _can be evacuated by 2 hours and 45 minutes (Table 17). TABLE 17. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR " EVACUATE INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION IN BUSES AND SPECIAL-VEHICLES" STEP Estimated Percent of Population in Institutions Evacuated Time After Start of Notification in Buses and Soecial Vehicles Ambulatory Persons (by bus) I hour,35 minutes 50 2 hours 100 Non-Ambulatory Persons (by. emergency vehicle) I hour, 50 minutes 50 g 2 hours,45 minutes 100 Total, Institutional Population l

          . I hour,35 minutes                                            50 t

- 2 hours,45 minutes - 100 l

I I l l 69 I

4 The estimated time required for the completion of the individual steps in the evacuation of the combined institutional population (both ambulatory and non-

!        ambulatory) is summarized in Figure 18. The ' determining factor in the time needed to evacuate the institutional population group is the time needed to complete two round trips out of the EPZ by the special vehicle fleet, mainly ambulances.

A special vehicle (bus and ambulance) fleet large enough to evacuate the popualtion in institutions in one and two trips, respectively, is critical to achieve the total evacuation time of 2 hours and 45 minutes for this population segment. If , a sufficiently large bus and ambulance fleet could not be mobilized and additional trips out of the EPZ were needed (even by only a few of the vehicles), the total ! evacuation time for the population in institutions would increase by approximately I 1 hour, to 3 hours and 45 minutes af ter the start of notification.

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIMES FOR NORM AL CONDITIONS ! Table 18 summarizes th'e evacuation times for normal conditions. As indicated in ! this table the evacuation times vary according to the population segments considered. The maximum evacuation time for the entire EPZ, established by the < ! time needed for the " Permanent Resient (Vehicle-Owning)" segment of the popula- ); tion,is 4 hours. 4 EVACUATION TIMES UNDER SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS t i Severe weather conditions for the Catawba Nuclear Power Station EPZ are defined j as a severe winter storm, with accumulations of snow or ice on the roadways within

!        the EPZ.

1

Severe weather conditions affect the evacuation process by reducing road capaci-ties, due to slower vehicle speeds and a reduction in vehicular capacity at

, intersections. Typically, under adverse winter weather conditions, an intersection - functions at only 60 percent of its normal capacity.I' 4 1.- Due to increase in headway between vehicles. - 70 __ , -u->um --  ?,w-+ y-w= p- e we .m, , g,4 g <p m- -$g- r-

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TABLE 18.

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION TIMES m . J I a la la .E E j j a ( it i s l, h a C C i*

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                                                                                                                                                      ?k fi 2res                                                                   witNa Two vilo Piorth Crotina        337         136       4 36      233     1,200      (1) (2)   (3)    (3)      (4)  (6)   3:23    3:23  1:40   (3)      (3)

South Carolina 363 136 3,332 1,982 2,600 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 343 1:40 (3) (3) All 2enes 720 31 0 6.206 2,213 (t) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 (3) (3) i ,, 2ones witNa Fm vil< s A.! 329 227 10,187 3,637 1,200 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 (3) (3) 81 2',631 1,131 2.384 926 1,200 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (6) 3:23 3:23 1:40 1:45 2:30 C1 6,161 2.649 16,827 6.007 1,200 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:60 1:43 2:30 D.! 1,414 608 109 39 2,400 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (6) 3:23 3:23 1:40 (3) (3) E.1 629 184 0 0 3.600 (1) (2) (3) (3) (6) (4) 3:23 3:23 I:40 (3) (3) l F.! 2,373 1.106 1, 382 363 3,600 (1) (2) (J) (3) 16) (4) 3:23 3:23 180 15: 2:3* ' All : anes 13.737 3,903 31,293 11.172 (1) (2) (3) (3) (6) (6) 3:23 3:23 1:60 1:40 2:32 2 anes witNn Tea vilis A.2 6,838 2.08C 6,073 1,436 4,800 (1) (2) (3) (3) (6) (4) 3:23 343 150 2:*3 *:13 ( 82 9.771 4.201 66.826 16,717 6,200 (I) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 4:00 1:60 243 4:13 8 C.2 66.966 19.333 0 0 11.600 (1) (2) (3) (3) (6) (6) 4:00 6:13 t r60 2:.3 a:13 I (*)

• i>* 9.469 3. 96 3 0 1 a.300 (1) (3)! (31 461 '.6- 3d3 i 3:* 3 ind ' : ; . . .

4.937 2.432 , 3l 3 6.3001 ft) 1*t i 3 18 ( 3 ) :6t l ist 3:23 ! 3:23 .: 0 - 2 .. ! .! f12

          '2                  2.s33      ... 2        e30 ]     *32
                                                                .       s.200 til  .2!   (3)    ;31-    s6i  53    343     3d3 ,   24      .   ,
                                                                                                                                                         +
          ?.3                 2.o72      s.669        est       232     2.*0C      (!)  (2)   (3)    !))     461  (si    3:23   3:23  ::.0        . M2; Au Ms             '9.026      33.982    22.220    18,633                 (1)  (2)   (31    (3)     (6)  (*)    3:23   3:23  1:*0     2: !       *.3 l

1. See anstriouuan in faste 7.

2. See castr:suuans in Taoies 3 ano 9.

3. See sistrisuuans in Taoies 10 and Lt.

          .. see astr:Dunon in Taote 13.

3. No specta f aca:uts .n tnese zones.

72 m

Reflecting this reduction in capacity in the EPZ road system results in the adverse condition time estimates as indicated in Table 18. As indicated in this table, the time for the evacuation of the entire EPZ becomes 6 hours and 15 minutes under adverse conditions.

SUMMARY

OF TIMES FOR SELECTIVE EVACUAT ONS Table 18 shows the times needed for the selective evacuation of the subareas within the EPZ. In the evacuation of most of the subareas, traffic congestion is not a factor, and the evacuation time depends only on the rate at which the resident population prepares to leave home. Thus, for most of the subareas, the selective evacuation time is 3 hours and 25 minutes under normal conditions. For some of the subareas, the evacuation time is determined by the extent of the traffic congestion present. The maximum evacuation time under normal conditions for any subarca is 4 hours for any group of subareas containing Zone C2. i r

73 l

VIII. CONFIRMATION OF EVACUATION INTRODUCTION

       " Confirmation" of evacuation measures the extent of compliance with the evacua-tion order. Confirmation is conducted by local preparedness agencies, beginning at about the time that evacuation is estimated to be substantially completed.

PLANNED APPROACH TO CONFIRMATION P Local plans for the confirmation process call for public safety agencies (fire and police departments), working at the direction of the Emergency Operations Centers (EOC's) of all counties within the EPZ, to assess the level of effectiveness of the evacuation. In the initial stages of evacuation, the confirmation' process is intended to establish if the public is comprehending the notification and is, therefore, beginning to react. Intitial confirmation assessments will consist of reports from emergency workers, traffic control officers, observations of patrolling officers and aerial observations of traffic flows.- At later stages in the evacuation, the confirmation process will establish the rate at which the public is complying with evacuation orders. The results of the confirmation process at this stage will guide the EOC's in _ directing remedial measures, such as intensified notification, additional EBS bulletins or door-to-door patrolling. At later stages in the - evacuation, EOC's may request that local response agencies perform some of the following specific confirmation activities, e Observe outbound traffic flows and report on traffic volumes i e Count arrivals at reception centers and report on the results e Secure detailed reports from traffic control officers and perimeter - , control of ficers t i e l 74 b

o Conduct limited door-to-door canvasses to determine extent of evacuation TIME REQUIRED FOR CONFIRMATION The time required for confirmation depends on the degree of assurance desired. For example, a survey of 100 percent of the EPZ population would assure a completely accurate measure of the success of the evacuation. dn the other hand, such a survey would be lengthy and costly in terms of resources that would be needed for other resource activities occurring at that time. Partial surveys of the EPZ population (samples) can offer a sufficiently high degree of reliability without incurring the cost of a full survey of EPZ population. At the 95-percent confidence level, an accuracy of +2 percent can be obtained with a survey of 900 households. This indicates that in a survey of 900 households, there is a 95 percent assurance that the estimated fraction of population evacuated is within 2 percent of the "true" fraction evacuated (as would be established with a 100 percent survey of all EPZ households). The time required for a " door-to-door" canvass yielding the accuracy described above is I hour,40 minutes. The time is based on participation by 30 public safety personnel (fire or police) canvassing 30 households over a period of I hour, 40 minute. It is assumed that,in most instances, this canvassing would be performed in conjunction with other planned emergency response activities (for example, security patrolling of evacuated areas, patrolling for persons without transporta-tion, etc.).

                                                 -75

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                                                                                                                                                    -            APPENDIX A                                 '
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                                                                                                          ,#POPULAT!ON BY 22.3 DEGREE'5ECTORS s    s s N

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                                      ,   ,     INTRODUCTION ' -                                                                                                                       -

This appendix includes the follolwng " distributions, arranged into 22.3 degree sectors and wit $in,2, 5 and 10 miles of the Catawba Nuclear Station: 1.'~ Permanent population -

2. Estimated evacuation vehicles of the permanent population

3. Estiniated transient population

                                                                  ' t. ,.           ,

Es.timated evacuation vehicles of the transient population j  % s i rs

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Exhibit A 1. Permanent Population by Sector . L 3064l l 1598 l N l209ai NNW 1687 N.E [1590l 1339 1457 M NW NE 10 Mitas 1204 2382

                                                      \

WNW 229 1330 605 ENE 3261 325 208 883 158 247

                                                    ,    0 73 J A9              44 W                            150 1

1B 14 425 E g 1013 , 6 So 2784 I32231 117 2 " 1647 42 368 2813 WSW 893 1498 6705 [$[ 1293r,l 998 y 968 3354 SW SE [ 1313l [474ol SSW _ 12,784 SSE M $ D46901 0 to Mi e b POPULAll0N TOTALS plMG. MILES l pyy$fion A TE MILES kkg'a#7,' 7O 02 53, 02 537 2s 10,540 0's 11.077 s 10 A7 Fo2 0 10 78,7Ag A-2

i *2 , '. 7

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                                         . Exhibit k2. Estimated Evacuation Vehicles of Permanent Population
                                              ~.

d l 68- l N l 902 l

         .                                     -N HW                                                                              WNE 725 y                                   576                                                                          627                         T129 i HE NW                                                                                                                        10 uiLES s.~

1024 WNW 572 98 260. EhE I 14901 140 5 i ses i 1402 89 3g0 68 106 i j o9 g 2 W 65 8 6 1 183 E 436 3 e3 , 1197 l 13861

                                                                                  %                     5 50-09s                                 708 Yd7          -                .                         588 1210                                                                                                                                2883 WSW                                                          384                              644                                                                ESE l 1261                                                               ,

425 13630l

                                                                     /

416 . 1442 SW ^

                                                                                   .                                            .                            SE l 564 i 310 i:     2- l
                                                                                                                           '9965
               '                                                                           5497                                        33g
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                    ,                            SSW N                                                  3                                        110613 la 3 8 7 4 j,*,' dT",' I"'"                                                         g
                  ~

VEHICLES TOTALS l 9 SNG WILE 2'{ yg"g'3C IS ll TOTAL MfLIS {. ,'e,Y i l 02 - t 23. il 0 2y 7 _:. t 25 .. 1.L : ? '. Il 01 l J,'t2 1 l 5

• 10 M 29,,28 11 0 10 - t- 30,4~} l

               +                                                                                              m m

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       .       4-Exhibit A 3. Estimated Maximum Transient Population 13806l                                                                             j l830 l                      N                    1124011                                                   l NNW                   2602                  NNE                                                        ;

i l 311 l l 4241 NW NE 10 miles 0 17 l WNW 776 9482 ENE I Ol 0 311 46,000 146354 21 o o,y@y g 62 no W' o 13 168 E 11139l 0 e g 826 l.12071 0 E[. $ > 2358 j 13 3971 WSW 96 205 ESE 12652 I 92 1 l24461 0 0 SW SE [ 536 l [ 4084 l SSW SSE L211aJ s W hoy [~7,' uiI," (13057I

POPULATION TOTALS ING. MILES TOTAL MILES PC ION $Q'ATI O.2 6,206 02 6,20A 25 31,296 05 37,504 s .to i 52,200 0 10 1 89,704

( l A-4 l i

                                                                                 -     .- - ,               ,.         ,    , , - - - - - ~ . .

e . l l l l Exhibit h 4. Estimated Evacuation Vehicles of the Maximum Transient Population 11358 l l 296 l N l 4428l NNW 929 WNE O 984 y 1 151 l NW 10 utEs 0 6 WNW 277 353 3385 ENE I ol 5 (165491 0 111 75 16,422 0 0 76 5 2 22 0  ; W o l n c 1 60 [ 0 g, / l 407l Jj 295 g 0

                                                    &        e9 '0 842 1418 WSW 0                                                                                           0    ESE W                                         34 4516 73 1873 l 0                                                                   0 SW                                                                             SE I 192 I                  g                                                               Imt

U SSW SSE 1949 i 5 81o ui;';',$t = ' v ~ ' - i -een l YEHICLES TOTALS I v g"g',"ck ES ll TOTAL WILES l E @ C. 4 5 RING WILES l (

02 e i,..i il 0-2 e e...: # 2*5 6 --.- - Il 05 .2.356 l 5 10 Q 19.436 il 0 10 t . ,12 : 1 A-5 l

APPENDIX B DERIVATION OF NON-VEHICLE-OWNING POPULATION AND NUMBER OF CARS USED FOR EVACUATION The number of non-v5hicle-owning households in the Catawba EPZ is derived on the basis of the three-county vehicle ownership pattern as obtained from the 1980 Census. VEHICLE OWNERSHIP IN 1980 . The vehicle ownership pattern for Gdston, Mecklenburg, and York Counties, as derived from the 1980 census, is shown below: Percentage of Households Vehicles Weighted Owned by Mecklenburg Average Households Gaston County ~ County -York County for EPZ 0 10 10 10 10 1 32 34 30 30 2 38 38 40 40 3 or more 20 18 20 20' As indicated in the above table,10 percent of the households in the three-county area do not own a vehicle. On the basis of the postulated household vehicle usage, the average number of vehicles per household used for evaccation is 1.30. On average, this represents a vehicle occupancy of 2.33 persons per vehicle. l B-1 i

4 APPENDIX C DESCRIPTION OF EVACPLAN MODELS USED i IN THE ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES I ! The PRC EVACPLAN package used for the analysis of evacuation times consists of two modules: i 1. EVACURVE module, which establishes the rate at which the popula-tion of the risk area completes preparations to evacuate and enters (or attempts to enter) the relocation road network.

2. QUEUE module, which simulates the flow'of traffic out of the EPI,

,                         portrays the impact of traffic control measures employed, and identi-i                          fies the location, extent and severity of any traffic congestion that occurs during the relocation process. The QUEUE module computes the total time needed for evacuation, on a route-by-route basis.

i These modules incorporate features particularly important in the analysis of evacu-ation times: '

1. Dynamic - The EVACPLAN program recognizes that the entire process changes continuously as evacuation proceeds. For example, the rate of discharge of vehicles onto the roadway is neither a single event nor a steady rate, but rather is a distribution that varies with the elapsed time alter the start of evacuation.

In a similar manner, traffic congestion does not occur in a regular manner throughout the area and throughout the entire evacuation process, but rather it appears at different locations and for different ! durations at these locations. Also, the severity of traffic congestion

varies sharply from location to location, even within a single evacu-

.                         ation route.

2.. Behavior-based - The EVACPLAN program recognizes that the popu-lation of the risk area will ny evacuate as a single body, with the entire population completing one step of the process (for example, the population will proceed at its own pace, with different portions of . the population at various stages of the evacuation sequence at any given time.

3. Probabilistic - The EVACPLAN program recognizes that the -time j distributions for completing each of the various relocation steps are, in the statistical sense, conditional probability, distributions, contin-gent on completion of the previous steps. Total departure times-that is, the times needed for the entire preparation process-are 1

C-1

    .:  e                                                      .
  ,   e

' derived by computing the joint probability distribution from the individual time distributions for each step.

4. Sensitive to control measures - The EVACPLAN model can reflect the full range of measures that might be employed to improve the

                                    . evacuation traffic flow. This range includes actions to regulate the i-                                     flow of traffic onto the road system (demand measures), actions to increase the available road capacity for relocation flows (supply measu es), and actions to improve the capacity of the available roads (traffic control measures).

THE EVACURVE MODULE The EVACURVE module calculates the " departure curve" for the EPZ population; that is, the distribution of time needed for the EPZ population to complete prepa- ! rations to evacuate. The departure curve, therefore, also defines the rate at which the EPZ population enters (or attempts to enter) the evacuation route system. t i j The EVACURVE module calculates the departure curve from a series of time dis- ] tributions needed to complete each step of the evacuation sequence. Statistically, the time distribution for each individual step is conditional probability distribution; the final departure curve is calculated by computing the joint probability distribu-tion of all the component steps. Inputs to the EVACURVE Module i The series of action steps which comprise the evacuation sequence is identified. j The time distribution required to complete each individual step of the evacuation sequence will be established. Methods for-establishing these distributions will be j based on local preparedness plans, projections of shut-down times by employers and

institutions (such as schools), driving time to return home'and distribution of time needed for securing households as derived from evacuation studies for nuclear I power plants and natural disasters.

The time distributions for each step are characteristically in the "S-curve" form. This reflects the behavioral realities of the risk area population; that is, some.of the population will complete a particular step rapidly (the low " tail" of the curve),- ( C-2 l

      .- o l

I l most of the population will complete the step in times which cluster around the i center of the distribution (the steep central portion of the curve), and a small part of the population will require a very long time for the step (the " tail" at the high end of the distribution. Computation Procedure for the EVACURVE Module The EVACURVE module summarizes the input time distributions for the individual action steps of the evacuation sequence (Exhibit C-1). The fina'. departure curve is displayed in graphical and tabular form (Exhibits C-2 < and C-3). l THE QUEUE MODULE The QUEUE module begins'with the evacuation road network (that is, the system of roads available for evacuation) the distribution of population onto this network. The QUEUE module then simulates the traffic flow through the evacuation road network. This simulation is iterative; that is, it is repeated for small increments of time. Consequently, the status of traffic congestion is calculated at each time interval, and the dynamic aspects of traffic flow and congestion can be traced. Inputs to the QUEUE Module j Inputs to the QUEUE program are:

1. . Road network used for evacuation. This includes the major evacu-ation routes, branches to these routes (evacuation subroutes), and 3 points at which the population enters the evacuation route system

  .                         (loading points).

2. Departure curve for the.rlsk area population, which gives the rate at which the population enters the road system. The departure curve is the direct output of the EVACURVE module as described above..

3. Traffic flow parameters to reflect the capacity of the roads in the relocation network.

C-3

        . e-Exhibit C 1. Example Of input Time Distributions for Evacurve Module Of PRC Evacplan Program t
                       ----------------- INPUT DISTRIBUTIONS --------------.---

DAY-WEEMEND-WINTER (VALUES IN PERCENT POPULATION) TIME FROM START RECEIVE TIME FROM RECE!PT LEAVE OF NOTIFICATION MESSAGE OF INFORMaTION WORK 0: 5 0.0 0: 5 0.0 0:to 0.0 0:to 50.00 0:15 10.00 0:15 30.00 0:20 10.00 0:20 10.00 0:25 30.00 0:25 0.0 0:30 30.00 0:30 G 00 0:35 10.00 0:35 0.en 0:40 5.00 0:40 0.0 0:45 5.00 0: 45 5.00 0:50 0.0 0:50 0.0 0:55 0.0 0:55 0.0 1: O O.0 1: 0 0.0 1: 5 0.0 t: 5 0.0 trio 0.0 1:10 0.0

      .                           t:15            0.0                       1:15              0.0 1 20           0.0                       1:20              0.0 1:25           0.0                       1:25              0.0 1:30           0.0                       1:30              0.0 1:35           0.0                       1 35              0.0          .

1:40 0.0 1:40 0.0 te45 0.0 t 45 0.0 1:50 0.0 1:50 0.0 TIME AFrER TRAVEL TIME AFTER PREPARE LEAVING WORK HOME ARRIVAL HOME EVACUATE 0: 5 50.00 0: 5 0.0 0:10 30.00 0:to 0.0 0:15 10.00 0:15 10.00 0:20 10.00 0:20 5.00 0:25 0.0 0:25 10.00 0:30 0.0 0:30 15.00 0:35 0.0 0:35 15.00 0:40 0.0 0:40 25.00 0:45 0.0 0:45 0.0 0:50

• 0.0 0:50 10.00 0:55 0.0 0:55 0.0 1 0 0.0 1: 0 5.00 1: 5 0.0 1: 5 0.0 l 1:10 0.0 1:10 0.0 j 1:15 0.0 1:15 0.0 1:20 0.0 1:20 0.0
• 25 0.0 1:25 0.0 l 1:30 0.0 1:30 0.0 1:35 0.0 ft35 . 5.00 i 140 0.0 1:40 0.0 1:45 0.0 1:45 0.0 l 1:50 0.0 1:50 0.0 PRC V00RHEE$ EVAC PLAN PACM i

C.4' . I

      .                                                                                              l Exhibit C 2. Example of Plotted Distribution of Final Departure Curve from'Evacurve Module of PRC Evacplan Program 1

TIME DISTRIBUTIONS FOR EVACUATION STEPS DAY.WEEMEND. WINTER foo% oF PDFULATION

    .                                                                      PREPARED TO LEAVE
              % OF                                                         AREA WITHIN POPULAT!ON                                                   32to HOURS toes  ...........l....oo0ooooooo............'.......................

o ... ..... o .. .. o . Tsx ...........l...........l...........l...........l...........l. . e . ses ..-......o.l...........l...........l...........l...........l. ass ...........l...........l...........l...........l...........i. o .

• o . .

on0o .................l...........l...........l...........l. o:3o troo 1:3o 2:oo 2:3o TIME PROM START OF NOTIFICAT!aN(HOURS) o . RECE!VE NOTIFICATION e . LEAVE WORK

                                  + . ARRIVE HOME
                                  * . LEAVE AREA PRC V0ORHEES EVAC PLAN PACK l

l i l l I l C-5 i i j

1 Exhibit C 3. Example of Final Departure Curve (Tabular Form) from Evacurve Module of PRC Evacplan Program FINAL EVACUATION DISTRIBUTION DAY-WEEKENO-WINTER

 .                                       (VALUES IN PERCENT)
                               ................ MINUTES -----.----------

TIME 5 10 15 20 25 30 0: 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.25 0:30 0.67 1.76 3.49 5.31 7.62 9.78 1: 0 11.70 12.09 10.83 8.95 7.02 5.23 . 1t30 3.67 2.52 1.66 1.14 0.89 0.99 22 0 1.18 1.06 0.76 0.54 0.34 0.18 2:30 C.12 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01 3: 0 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3:30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4:30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5: 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5:30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6: 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6:30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7: 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NOTE: TIME 15 IN HOURS AND MINUTES AFTER START OF NOTIFICATION. A POINT ON THE 0157RIBUT!0N IS FOUND BY ADDING THE COLUMN

• MINUTE 5* TO THE ROW
• TIME *.

4 C.6

                                                           -r,- -

. 4 The evacuation route network within the EPZ is coded into a form needed for entry into the QUEUE program. This coding process consists of:

1. Designating the major evacuation routes. The number of such routes depends on the specific corridor being considered: typically, there are two to five major evacuation routes in any given corridor.

2. Designating the subroutes; that is, the roads that feed traffic onto the major evacuation routes. The number of subroutes also depends on the specific corridor being considered; typically, there are two to four subroutes for each major relocation route.

3. Establishing the loading points, locations at which relocation traffic is assumed to be generated and at which it enters the relocation road system. Loading points are an abstraction of the actual road system, representing concentrations of households, workplaces, etc. Typi-cally, a total of 10 to 15 loading points is established for each of the major evacuation routes.

Com;>utation Procedure for the QUEUE Module The QUEUE program calculates, for each time interval, the arrival and departure of traffic at all locations throughout the evacuation road system. Arrival rates of traffic are determined by:

1. The output of the EVACURVE module, which establishes for all evac-uation routes the rate at which traffic enters (or attempts to enter)

                ,  the evacuation road system, and

2. The loading of traffic onto the individual evacuation routes. This loading is made on the basis of population concentrations and special activity centers.

The rate of discharge of traffic through intersections is determined by:

1. The available lanes of roadway

2. The traffic flow rate, typically 1,200 vehicles per hour on each departure lane for surface roads, and 1,800 per lane on freeways.

Traffic flow rates can be adjusted to reflect adverse conditions or other obstacles to free traffic flow. Traffic queues at any given location are discharged at a rate proportional to their magnitude; i.e., the longer a queue the greater its priority at the intersection C-7

. 8 4 where the queue originates. This algorithm simulates the traffic control that would be achieved by a competent traffic control officer on duty at such locations. The QUEUE program identifies locations at which congestion occurs and calculates the extent of such congestion. Measures which are computed include the length (time) of the period over which congestion persists at particular locations, the maximum delay experienced by a vehicle passing through any congested location, and the extent (distance) of congestion on the relocation road network. Outputs of the QUEUE Module A summary of all evacuation routes is prepared (Exhibit C-4). For each evacuation route, a summary status report is prepared (Exhibit C-5). A detailed tabular report of each congested location at which congestion occurs is prepared (Exhibit C-6). C-8

 ,         a                                             .

4 Exhibit C 4. Example of Summary of Evacuation Times by Route, from Queue Module of PRC Evacplan Program J EVACUATION ROUTE

SUMMARY

TIME TO EVACUATE ROUTE POPULAT!0N VEHICLES (HOURS)

                  .         SC 183 WEST                           5174            2224   3:25
     .                      SC 11 SOUTH                           6222            2675   3:30 US 123 WEST                           2506            1077   3:25 SEC RTE 63                            2340            1006   3:25 SC 59                                 7021            3019   3:45 SEC RTE 21                            3900            1676   3:25 US 76 SOUTH                        10400              4678   3:25 US 123 EAST                           7541            3242   3:25 SC 93                                 4514            1941   3:25 SC 183 EAST                           2663            1145   3:25 PRC v00eHEES EVAC PLAN PACM 5

l 1 f 1 C.9 i l C

Exhibit C 5. Example of Evacuation Route Status Report, 2 from Queue Module of PRC EvaCplan Program i ROUTE

SUMMARY

SC 11 SOUTH START OF E;.C OF TOTAL PEAM MAX INTER

• OUEUE QUEUE PEAM OUEUE DELAY SECTION (PERIDO) (PERIOD) OUEUE(vtA) LENGTH (vtH) (PERIDOS) TIME t 0 0 0 0 0 0

                *2          0              0            0               0               0   0 3          6              7           14               3               0   6 4          6              8           83             65                0   6 5          5              9          167            151                1   7 6          5              9          159            157                1   0 7          5             to         252             246                1   8
   .             8          5             11         213             213                1   9
           .... .......'....... '........ ........'".........'......l?.

MAX. TIME TO EVACUATE = 3:30 HOURS INTERSECTIONS: 1*SC 11 & SEC RTE 145 2*SC 11 & SEC RTE 129 3*SC 11 & SEC RTE 94 4*SC 11 & SEC RTE 198 5=SC 11 & SEC RTE 34 6*SC 11 4 SEC RTE 131 7*SC 11 & SEC RTE 133 8*SC 11 & SEC RTE 40 9*SC 11 & SC 28 i PRC VOC2HEES EVAC PLAN PLOM l

         .                                       C.10

4 Exhibit C 6. Example of Tabular Report for Specific Congested Location, from Queue Module PRC EVacplan Program 4 . Y I t INTERSECTION: SC 11 & SEC RTE 198

'                                ROUTE: SC 11 SOUTH TIME PERIOD:     ,6 ARRIVALS DEPART GUEUE QUEUE LENGTH

' LEC (VEH) (VEH) (VEH) (MILES) I * ........ ...... ....... ............ 1 205 85 0.3 2 St 18 0.1 3 300 1 4 0 0 0.0 TOTAL 256. 300 53 0.4 1 TOTAL ARRIVALS: 256. VEHICLES TOTAL BACKLOG 39. VEHICLES I i NOTE: LEG 1* MAIN APPRDACH LEG LESS 2.d*S10E APPROACH LEGS LEG 3* EXIT LIG l l 1 PRC V00eMEES EVAC PLAN PACK l l C.ll .

l Missing from this packet: i. EPC 9 BASSIOUNI ATTACHMENT B This Attachment can be reviewed in the office 4 of: Albert V. Carr, Jr. - Duke Power Company Charlotte, NC l Room PB 5105 I l 1 i i f i 1 I

  ~

t

                                                                         'l4

_ EPC 14/15 KULASH ATTACHMENT B , Properod for Duke Power Company Summary of Method for , Estimating Evacuation Timing 1

for Catawba Nuclear Station l l Emergency Planning Zone i

i l i 1 l l l l Prepared by PRC Engineering 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 March 1984 l

  . . - - . - , - , - -    _ _ ,  ..4.._- . _ . . -.,   m.m. . . - - ... . _ _ . . _, ,    ,-..__.__,-_m__.,_-,._          -., , , .-. _ , , . . . _ , , . _ _ , . . . , _ _ - - _ _ _ _ _ . - . _ , . . _ , _ _ , . . _ _ . , - _ , . _ . _ _ . _ _ ,

                                    .       . _      .      -           ~.  -       =   -     .-

4 4-METHOD FOR ESTIMATING EVACUATION TIMES i The series of activities preceding departure in an evacuation is determined. This series of activities varies depending on the population group studied. A time distribution is compiled for each of the series of steps. These time distributions are linked statistically, giving a composite time for the entire population to prepare for evacuation. Departing traffic is then assigned to the local street system, according to the minimum time travel path to reach their designated shelter area. Population without an automobile available are assigned to available buses. Traffic flow is simulated through the use of a computer program, and locations and severities of traffic congestion are noted. f Total evacuation times are compiled by combining departure times with travel times from the EPZ(Emergency Planning Zone). Population Segments Five population segments are identified in this analysis:

1. Auto-owning residents are those residents of the EPZ with a private i

automobile available in the emergency zone. Auto-owning resident population includes all ' members from households where _an auto-1 mobile is owned and where at least one automobile is within 30 l minutes of home on a typical workday. Certain non-auto-owning ' individuals (for example, elderly persons living with or near other. j family members) can depend on auto-owning households for trans-portation, and are therefore, included in auto-owning population. - i

2. Non-auto-owning residents are EPZ residents who do not own' an 1

automobile in their household, and do not have assured transportation from some other household. Also, some auto-owning households are, for parts of the day, without an automobile within 30 mir.utes and are, therefore, considered to be non-auto-owning. 3. Transients are non-residents of the EPZ who are in the EPZ at the time of evacuation. Typically, transients are either employees at - l i EPZ locations or visitors to recreational facilities in the EPZ. e

i

4. School population consists of all students in school (K-college) within the EPZ.

5. Special facility populations consist of hospital patients, nursing home residents, and jail imates.

Basis of the resident population estimates is the 1980 census. Car ownership data is from the census and supplementary surveys conducted in the EPZ. School population is furnished by school districts. Institutional population is obtained by

survey from the individualinstitutions.

t Departure Activities + The series of discrete departure activity steps identified for the EPZ ' population are shown in Exhibit 1. These steps are patterned on the guidelines first issued in Appendix 4 to NUREG 0654 and reflect the different methods of evacuation for the

;         various population groups.

j

 !         Time Distributions for Departure Activities a

Time distributions for departure steps are built up from the following sources: o Notification times are based on the times mandated by NRC and

,                               FEMA for the notification of EPZ population.                        .

t I o Departure times from work place are based on typical shutdown j times. These times recognize that a longer time will be required for i certain personnel (for example, managers). I

o Driving times for the return to households are based on distance and i travel speeds. Typically, travel speeds reflecting daily rush-hour conditions are used in this analysis.

l o Preparation for leaving households is based on a time-and-motion ) analysis for a simulated emergency departure from various sizes of households. An upper bound to this range is defined by the times required for the evacuation of a family farm. I A computer' program (EVACURVE) is' used to obtain the joint - probability distribution of the individual time distributions. t I y i++ -ty-+ e- - g &r y in w ry9- y 9 i,W -y wr e y+gy w- - m psmy & p-- 7 g vm4-g g # ,y+,y - + -> ~ +

o Driving times are estimated by the use of a traffic simulation model (the QUEUE model) that considered the loading of traffic onto.a a route and the capacity of that route. o Transportation times for persons dependent on public vehicles are

,                    determined by calculating the number of round trips needed by these vehicles, computing their travel distance and speed, and compiling the resulting ' travel times.
     .The EVACURVE Model The EVACURVE module calculates the " departure curve" for the EPZ population; that is, the distribution of time needed for the EPZ population to complete preparations to evacuate. The departure curve, therefore, also defines the rate at which the EPZ population enters (or attempts to enter) the evacuation route system.

The EVACURVE module calculates the departure curve from the series of time distributions needed to complete each step of the evacuation sequence. Statisti-cally, the time distribution for each individual step is conditional probability distribution; the final departure curve is calculated by computing the joint probability distribution of all the component steps. The time distributions for each step are characteristically in the "S-curve" form. This reflects the behavioral realities of the risk area population; that is, some of l the population will complete a particular step rapidly (the low " tall" of the curve),

most of the population will complete the step in times which cluster around the center of the distribution (the steep central portion of the curve), and a small part of the population will require a very long time for the step (the " tail" at the high end of the distribution.

The EVACURVE module summarizes and displays the input time distributions for the individual action steps of the evacuation sequence. The final departure curve is displayed in graphical and tabular form . C. 9

j l l The QUEUE Model The QUEUE moduie begins with the evacuation road network (that is, the system of roads available for evacuation) and the distribution of population onto this network. The QUEUE module then simulates the traffic flow through the evacuation road network. This simulation is iterative; that is, it is repeated for small increments of time. Consequently, the status of traffic congestion is calculated at each time interval, and the dynamic aspects of traffic flow and congestion can be traced. Inputs to the QUEUE program are: 1. Road network used for evacuation. This includes the major evacu-ation routes, branches to these routes (evacuation subroutes), and points at which the population enters the evacuation route system (loading points). Routes are obtained from the local emergency plans. Route branches and loading points are established by designat-ing the "travelshed" for each evacuation route, identifying feeder routes within the travelshed and assigning population within the travelshed to the appropriate feeder route. Routing decisions are based on minimum travel time. 2. Departure curve for the risk area population, which gives the rate at which the population enters the road system. The departure curve is the direct output of the EVACURVE module as described above.

3. Traffic flow parameters to reflect the capacity of the roads in the relocation network. For surf ace routes, a traffic capacity of 1,200 vehicles per lane per hour was used. This capacity reflects inter-section departure capacity, which is the determining factor in the road capacity under evacuation conditions and is based on the 1963 Highway Capacity Manual. For interstate routes, a capacity of 1,800 vehicles per hour per lane is used. This capacity is based on the 1963 Highway Capacity Manual.

The evacuation route network within the EPZ is coded into a form needed for entry into the QUEUE program. This coding process consists of:

1. Designating the major evacuation routes. The number of such routes depends on the specific corridor being considered; typically, there are two to five major evacuation routes in any given corridor.

2. Designating the subroutes; that is, the roads that feed traffic onto the major evacuation routes. The number of subroutes also depends

[

on the specific corridor being considered; typically, there are two to four subroutes for each major relocation route.

3. Establishing the loading points, locations at which relocation traffic is assumed to be generated and at which it enters the relocation road <

system. Loading points are an abstraction of the actual road system, representing concentrations of households, workplaces, etc. Typi-cally, a total of 10 to 13 loading points is established for each of the major evacuation routes. The QUEUE program calculates, for each time interval, the arrival and departure of traffic at all locations throughout the evacuation road system. Arrival rates of traffic are determined by:

1. The output of the EVACURVE module, which established for all evacuation routes the rate at which traffic enters (or attempts to enter) the evacuation road system, and

2. The loading of traffic onto the individual evacuation routes. This loading is made on the basis of population concentrations and special activity centers.

N rate of discharge of traffic intersections is determined by:

1. The available lanes of roadway

2. . The traffic flow rate, typically 1,200 vehicles per hour on each departure lane for surface roads, and 1,800 per lane on freeways.

Traffic flow rates can be adjusted to reflect adverse conditions or other obstacles to free traffic flow. Traffic queues at any given location are discharged at a rate proportional to their magnitudei 1.e., the longer a queue the greater its priority at the intersection where the queue originates. This algorithm simulates the traffic control that would be achieved by a traf fic control officer on duty at such locations. The QUEUE program identifies locations at which congestion occurs and calculates the extent of such congestion. Measures which are computed include the length (time) of the period over which congestion persists at particular locations, the maximum delay experienced by a vehicle passing through any congested location, and the extent (distance) of congestion on the relocation road network.

                                                                          ..        ._ _ _   ._~_ _ _ _ - _ _ = - _ _ -

      - . . _ _ . - - _ . .                      ._      . - _ _ ._ . _ _ ...   .m. _ - _ _ _ ~                                             _ . _ _ _ __

1 [ The QUEUE model then produces the following outputs: ! 1. A summary of all evacuation routes

2. For each evacuation route, a summary status report j 3. A detailed tabular report of each location at which congestion occurs 1

i 7 RESULTS OF EVACUATION TIME ANALYSIS

The time required for total evacuation of the Catawba Nuclear Station EPZ is four hours. This maximum time is determined by the time required to clear the EPZ on the most congested evacuation route (US 21, southward out of Rock Hill).

l i The maximum evacuation time of four hours is for auto-owning residentia! l population, evacuating in their own vehicles. Estimated evacuation times for other j population segments, as reported in the Evacuation Time Estimates, are less than i this. These times are reported by popualation group and by evacuation sector, in the Catawba Nuclear Station Evacuation Analysis. Evacuation Time Estimates. f Final Report. 1 l j Evacuation times vary according to Evacuation Sector (Zone), County, and State. 4  ; i For most evacuation zones, the maximum evacuation time is 3 hour s and l 25 minutes. This time reflects the evacuation, by the automobile-owning popula-l tion, under traffic conditions that have either no congestion or alternatively, that l; have congestion which subsides prior to the time that all residents have prepared to i j leave home. i i j A total of three evacuation routes have traffic congestion that continues after a!! l residents have prepared to evacuate and have entered the street system. On these {. routes, the total evacuation time is determined by the congestion. The maximum case of such congestion is on the U521/SC5 evacuation route, serving evacuation j . zone C-2. For this route, the evacuation time (noted previously as the maximum , i time for the entire EPZ)is 4 hours.  ! D m_._ ..___________..____.m_____________.___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _,

The QUEUE computer program identified the location and severity of traffic congestion throughout the EPZ, and these locations are reported in the Evacuation Time Estimate. With respect to impact on evacuation times, two distinctly , different types of congestion are noted: l

1. In some instances, congestion appears at a location, but dissipates prior to the time that all residents of the EPZ have completed preparations to leave home. In such instances, the congestion will delay some evacuees, but will determine the maximum time for evacuation.

2. In the instances of heavier congestion, congestion continues until after a!! population has finished preparations to leave home. In such instances, evacuation times are determined by the extent and dura-tion of congestion.

SENSITIVITY OF EVACUATION TIMES Estimated evacuation times will vary according to a number of factors, the most important of which include:

1. Weather condition -

2. Availability of public transportation (buses) for the evacuation of population without automobile transportation

3. Evacuee behavior

4. Voluntary (Shadow) Evacuation Evacuation times were computed for adverse weather conditions, and these times are reported in the Evacuation Time Estimates. Adverse weather conditions are

defined as severe winter weather occurring on a regularly recurring basis in the EPZ. It should be clearly understood that adverse weather cases are not " worst case" situations, for example,100-year storms, floods, etc.

In the event of such " worst case" events during an actual evacuation, time estimates could be revised accordingly (for example, reflecting closed roads) and decisions as to the feasibility of evacuation as a protective measure would be made. i l , [

The sensitivity of evacuation times to school bus availability was examined in detail in a separate analysis. Certain types of evacuee behavior (for example, speeding or disregard for normal traffic control devices) could affect the estimated evacuation times. However, no decrease in projected times was assumed for this type of changed behavior. " Voluntary" evacuation of persons outside the EPZ could result in congestion that , hinders the evacuation of EPZ population. This effect was examined in detail in for the urbanized area or Charlotte, North Carolina, immediately to the north of the EPZ. One detailed analysis was found that voluntary evacuation by Charlotte residents showed that it is extremely unlikely that voluntary evacuation would increase the time required to evacuate the EPZ.

                                                                      =.                                                        - - - - - - ___ _ -- - .. - _- -- -. -

_ EPC 14/15 KULASH ATTACHMENT C _ Proporod for Duke Power Company 'l Adequacy of Planning for l School Population Evacuation i i Catawba Nuclear Station l Emergency Planning Zone l l Prepared by PRC Engineering 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 l March 1984

   , , _ _ , ------.,,--,...---..---,-.,-.,--,...--..,,--,,,--,-n,-      ------,-nm,----,-,, n-,------    --,,-.-.---w--..,e-vm                                        - - ~ ,- - - , - , - ,,,-,   --.-,,-,ww~.m,,-----,,--

                                                            <                                                      i
                                                                                                                   )

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                                - - - ADEQUACY OF PLANNING FOR
                                     .. SCHOOL POPULATION EVACUATION
                           +                .

CATAWBA NdCLEAR STATION EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE

                                                       ,. DRAFT 1

Prepared for: DUKE POWER COMPANY by PRC ENGINEERING 1.500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 1 I i March 1984 A 0 4 I

                           .                                                                       4
                                                                                          ,J*

4 q  % 4-3 0 9 e - -

                                                                                 --r---        - -   -

ann. ~

7

l i

TABLE OF CONTENTS , ', Y List of Exhibits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . til ! INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

SCHOOL DISTRICT PLANS . . . . . . . . . . . . .  !  !

! l i ADEQUACY OF RESOURCES FOR EVACUATION , OF THE SCHOOL POPULATION. . . . . . . . . . . . 4 i l TIME TO EVACUATE THE SCHOOL POPULATION. . . . . . . 10 i ! CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 j APPENDIX A CHARLOTTE.MECKLENBURG SCHOOLS j DRAFT EVACUATION PLAN j APPENDIX B: YORK SCHOOL DISTRICT 1 DRAFT EVACUATION PLAN i j - APPENDIX C: CLOVER SCHOOL DISTRICT 2 DRAFT EVACUATION PLAN t j- APPENDIX D: ROCK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT 3 , DRAFT EVACUATION PLAN APPENDIX E FORT MILL SCHOOL DISTRICT 4 DRAFT EVACUATION PLAN i j > I i

                                            +                                  ,

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                                                     . ; LIST dh EXHIBITS Number                                                                                                                                                                         Page 1        Location of Schools and Districts .                                                       .      .            .            .       .         .     .  .               2 2        School Population iri the Catawba EPZ                                                            .            .            .       .         .     .  .               3 3        Role of Private ly-Owned Vehicles (POVs) in School Evacuation                                  .           .        .       .      .            .            .       .         .     .  .               6 4        Bus Supply and Demand During A School Evacuation                                                                                             .     .  .               7 5        Staging Areas For School Evacuees                                                         .      .            .            .       .         .     .  .               9 6        Derivation of School Evacuation Times                                                            .            .            .       .         .     .  .              11 1

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INTRODUCTION

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1 This report examines the adequacy of planning for the evacuation of school population in response to a radiological emergency at the Catawba Nuclear Power Station (CNS). Our evaluation is based on review of the school director's written plans, numerous discussions with school personnel, and comparison of their plans with those in place around other nuclear power plants. In the interest of conservatism, this assessment is based on evacuation of the entire Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) while schools are in session, even though par.tial evacuation is far more likely. The evacuated area includes parts of Gaston and Mecklenburg Counties in North Carolina and part of York County in South Carolina. This I analysis covers students in elementary, middle, and high schools; all schools-pri-vate as well as public-are included. l Locations of schools and school districts in the EPZ are summarized in Exhibit 1. Populations for schools within the EPZ are listed in Exhibit 2. SCHOOL DISTRICT PLANS

Each school district has devieoped its own plan for evacuating its schools.

Although there are small differences among the plans, they are similar in _ most respects. The principal features of the plans are as follows: e Redundant Notification Systems. Each county has developed a telephone communications chain that transmits word of an alert or

                       - emergency at CNS to all affected school principals and district staff.

In addition, each school in the EPZ and each district office will have a tone alert radio that continuously monitors the Emergency Broad-casting System and relays all emergency notification messages, including notices of alerts and emergencies at CNS. l t e Self-Sufficiency. Each school district .will carry out its evacuation using its own resources. Transportation will be by district school buses and their regular drivers. These will be supplemented by. the _- student- and faculty-owned vehicles parked at the schools. Faculty members will supervise the students at _ predesignated locations - (" staging areas") outside the EPZ until they are picked up by parents. In' most cases, the staging CTas are schools within the same school district. Some districts vus reed assistance .from the state school i I 1-a ~-~M -

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i Exhibit 1. Location of Schools and Districts

                                        == == == == School District Boundaries i

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EXHIBIT 2. SCHOOL POPULATION IN THE CATAWBA EPZ Location Facility Population! (Zone) Gaston County Schools , W.A. Bess 2 469 F-3 Mecklenburg County Schools Steele Creek Elementary 764 A-2 Pineville elementary 849 A-2 Olympic High 1,205 A-2 Total 2,818 York County Schools York School District #1 Education Service Center 33 D-2 Episcopal Church Home 42 D-2 Harold C. Johnson Middle School 1,085 D-2 Jefferson Primary School 626 D-2 McCelvey Elementary School 777 D-2 York Comprehensive High School 1,076 D-2 Total 3,639 Clover School District #2 Bethel Elementary School 364 F-1 Clover High School 1,008 E-2 Clover Junior High School 596 E-2 Clover Middle School 561 E-2 Kinard Elementary School 591 E-2 Total 3,120 Rock Hill School District #3 Belleview Elementary School 500 C-2 Castle Heights Junior High School 2 1,100 C-2 Catawba School 3 445- C-1 l Career Development Center 325 C-2 l Ebenezer Elementary School 450 C-2

Ebinport Elementary School 400 C-2 l

Edgewood Center 100 C-2 Finley Road Elementary School 500 C-2 Mt. Gallant Elementary School 630 C-1 3

l I I l Exhibit 2, Continued, Location Facility Populationi (Zone) Northside Elementary School 450 C-2 Northwestern High School 1,300 C-2 Rawlinson Road Junior High School 1,100 C-2 Richmond Drive Elementary School 450 C-2 Rock Hill Alternative Center 90 C-2 Rock Hill Christian Academy 3 100 C-2 Rosewood Elementary School 480 C-2 St. Anne's Catholic School 3 ISO C-2 Sullivan Junior High School 1,300 C-2 . Sunset Park Elementary School 450 C-2 Sylvia Circle Elementary School 250 C-2 Trinity Crhistian School 3 360 C-2 Westminister Christian School 3 250 C-2 York Road Elementary School 350 C-2 Total 11,610 Fort Mill School District #4 Fort Mill High School 915 B-2 Fort Mill Middle School-Campus I 563 B-2 Fort Mill Middle School-Campus 11 250 B-2 Riverview Complex 1,292 B-2 Total 3,020 York County Total 20,281 EPZ TOTAL 23,563 l

1. Includes stcff. Actual number of evacuees would be smaller due to absentees.

2. School outside EPZ but to be evacuated.

3. Private school

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4 bus maintenance supervisor for emergency repairs, law enforcement agencies for traffic control at the staging areas, owners of certain schools and churches to be used as staging areas, and the Red Cross for sheltering of children not picked up by parents. All these arranngements are already in place. e Speedy Evacuation. The school district plans provide for evacuating all schools within five miles of CNS within one hour and fifteen minutes of an' evacuation order. Evacuation times for the remaining schools would range between one hour and two and a half hours, depending on the location. No bus would have to make more than two , trips. e Promot Reunification of Families. The common objective of the various plans is to return children to the custody of their parents as quickly as possible. Therefore, most students will initially be taken to staging areas outside of, but convenient to, the areas under evacuation. Booklets distributed to parents each school year will identify the staging area for each school and this information will be repeated over radio and television during an evacuation. If any children have not been picked up by the time the evacuation is essentially completed, the unclaimed children will be bused to a Red

,                 Cross shelter and turned over to the Red Cross.

e Regular Training of School Personnel. To ensure that they are familiar with their role in an evacuation, each year every faculty member and bus driver will be issued a. copy of the district's evacuation plan. i For more details see the complete school district plans included as appendices to this study. ADEQUACY OF RESOURCES FOR EVACUATION

  ' OF THE SCHOOL POPULATION The school district evacuation plans summarized above make use of the following resources:

I e Privately-owned vehicles and their drivers e School buses, drivers, and fuel e Buildings to be used as staging areas e Personnel to supervise the students l l l

4

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This portion of our report examines adequacy of each of the resources. Privately-Owned Vehicles There are normally over 2,000 privately-owned vehicles at schools in the EPZ. Assuming each carries an average of four people, they represent a resource capable of moving about 8,400 people, more than a third of the school population. Some of these vehicles might not be available for transportation to the staging areas, however. If the car at the school were the only car available to a family living in the area under evacuation, the student or faculty member with the car might choose to take the car home and evacuate his family rather than evacuating students first. In such cases, the car would leave the school carrying only one person instead of four. We expect that the overwhelming majority of student and faculty will participate in eacuating students. But because the participation rate is uncertain, we have determined the bus requirements based on three alternative participation rates. Exhibit 3 shows the results for each school district. School Buses The school districts plan to use only their own buses normally stationed at locations near the schools to be evacuated. The second column of Exhibit 4 shows the number of buses each district plans to use in the evacuation. The district plans are conservative in that they use fewer buses than the districts have available. If any of the planned buses were unavailable or had mechanical problems, the districts could replace theni with their " activity buses" (used for field trips) and vans. An additional backup is spare buses kept at the bus maintenance shops. There are IS spares at the shop serving York County Districts 1,2, and 3. Comparing the second and third column of Exhibit 4 shows that three of the school districts plan to eve.cuate their students with just one trip per bus. The other three districts each plan to have about 60 percent of their buses make a'second trip. l I l l

EXilllHT 3. ROLE OF PRIVATELY OWNED VEHICLES (POVs) IN SCHOOL EVACUATION If 100 Percent Partkipetion __If 73 Percent Participation if 50 Percent Participetion A4mmienum People People People People People People EPZ School Nwnber Carried Carried Carried Carried Jurisdiction Carried Carried

                                      '                                                                        %Iation .of POVs bi POVs in Ibses Busloads in POVs _In Ibses Ibsloads in POVs in Buses baland Gaston County                       469      23           92      377       6                                     73                               394   6       38       411                                                           6 Mecklenburg County                2,818    316         1,264   1,554      23             1,185                                                  1,633   24   1,106     1,712                                                           25 York County District #1                    3,639     385        1,540    2,239 District #2                                                             32           1,251                                                    2,528   36     962 3,120     307        1,228    1,892      27 2,817                                                           41 m                                                                                 District #3                                                                                         998                                       2,122   31      768    2,352 11.610     803        3,212    8,398                                                                                                                                                                   34 District #4                                                            120         2,610                                                      9,000  129  2,007      9,603 3,020     288        1,152    1,868      27                                                                                                                                                          138 936                                       2,084   30     720     2,300                                                           33 I

Notes: School Population not adjusted for normal absenteelsm. Busloads calculated assuming 70 people / bus. i i

EXHIBIT 4. BUS SUPPLY AND DEMAND DURING A SCHOOL EVACUATION School District Plans Busloads to be Number of Buses Buses Bus Carried Required to Jurisdiction Used Trips (from Exhibit 3) Make Second Trio Gaston County 8 8 6 0 Mecklenburg County 51 51 23-25 0 York County District #1 39 39 32-41 0 (+5 minis) (+5 minis) District #2 27 45 27-34 0-7 District #3 94 153 120-138 26-44 (+11 minis) (+9 minis) District #4 23 38 27-33 4-10

• Includes Rock Hill Christian Academy bus (1 trip) and 2 minis (1 trip); Catawba School mini (2 trips); and Trinity Christian School bus (2 trips).

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l Comparing the planned bus trips (column 3) with the recuired bus trips (column 4) estimated in Exhibit 3, we observe that the school districts are all planning more trips than absolutely necessary. There are several reasons for this. One district assumed buses would M fi!!ed only to their normal seating capacity with no standees. Some districts chose to minimize their dependance on privately-owned vehicles. Several plan to send partially full buses out of the area rather than sending them to a second school to be completely filled before leaving the EPZ. Since drivers are normally with their buses (at a high school, in most cases), there is not likely to be a shortage of drivers. In addition to the regular drivers, the school districts have substitute drivers who routinely take over when a regular driver is out sick. These substitutes, or teachers, could be used for any bus whose driver was not available. The districts have carefully reviewed their fuel situation and none will need to refuel buses before ordering the evacuation. Bus maintenance personnel are always on duty during school hours and will be standing by throughout the evacuation to j handle emergency repairs if needed. { Buildings Serving as Staring Areas 4 Each school distict has arranged for space in buildings outside ' the EPZ for evacuated students to wait to be picked up by their families. Some of these staging areas are churches, but most are schools. Students normally attending those schools and living outside the EPZ will be taken home (as when schools close , early because of snow) to make room for the evacuated students. Evacuated , students driving their own cars will be released with instructions .to rendezvous with their families at a point outside the EPZ. i I Exhibit 5 shows the origin and number of evacuees assigned to each of the staging areas. School district officials have examined each of the locations listed and are satisfied that they can hold the assigned number of evacuees. 8

l EXHIBIT 5. STAGING AREAS FOR SCHOOL EVACUEES Nunber of Evacuated Schools Using Location Evacuees Staging Areas Gaston County Ashley Junior High School 469 W.A. Bess Mecklenburg County University of North Carolina 2,818 Olympic, Steele Creek, Pineville at Charlotte York County York School District #1 Sharon Elementary School 3,639 Education Service Center, Episcopal (and adjacent church), with Home, Harold C. Johnson, Jefferson, overflow to Hickory Grove McCelvey, York Comprehensive Elementary School Clover School District #2 Bethany Elementary School 3,120 Bethel, Clover High, Clover Junior (and adjacent Bethany ARP High, Clover Middle, Kinard church) Rock Hill School District #3 Rock Hill High School 3,425 Mt. Gallant, Ebinport, Career Development Center, Rosewood, York Road, Alternative School, Castle Heights Independance Elementary 1,300 Sullivan Junior High Oakdale Elementary 850 Edgewood Center, Finley Road, Sylvia Circle Lesslie Elementary 950 Bellview, Northside Catawba Baptist Church 2,400 Northwestern, Rawlinson Road Hopewell Presbyterian 700 Ebenezer, Westminster Church I e 9

Exhibit 5, Continued  ! Number of Evacuated Schools Using Location Evacuees Staging Areas Mt. Holly Methodist Church 630 Sunset Park, St. Anne's Southside Baptist Temple 1,255 Richmond, Trinity, Catawba (To be determined) 100 Rock Hill Christian A'cademy Fort Mill School District #4 Indian LandElementary 1,292 Riverview Complex Indian Land School 1,728 Fort Mill High, Fort Mill Middle School (both campuses) l 9a

l Supervisory Personnel The staff at the schools serving as staging areas will stay at their schools. In addition, some districts plans for the staff from the evacuated schools to stay at the staging areas. Either group alone would provide adequate supervision for the evacuated students. In districts where churches will be used as s'taging areas, the plans call for the staff of the evacuated schools to supervise the students in the churches. TIME TO EVACUATE THE SCHOOL POPULATION Evacuating the school population entails the following steps:

1. Mobilize buses and drivers

2. Travel to schools (first trip)

3. Load evacuees (first trip)

4. Travel to staging areas (first trip)

5. Unload (first trip)

6. Refuel (if necessary)

7. Travel to schools (second trip)

8. Load evacuees (second trip).

9. Travel to staging area (second trip)

By summing conservative estimates of the time required to complete each step, one gets a very conservative estimate of the overall evacuation time. This was done separately for each school district. In most cases, the times to complete each step were estimated by the school officials who developed the school district plans. Exhibit 6 shows 'the time estimates for each school district. The evacuation time estimates vary from 55 minutes to 2 hours and 25 minutes. the variations are due

     - primarily to differences in the number of trips made and in the distances traveled.

The entire school evacuation would be complete in 2 hours and 25 minutes. I I 2

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Exhibit 6. Derivation of School Evacuation Times . Gaston Co.

                                                                                                                         '           2    ;     3       ;     4 l                                 l Mecklenburg Co.                                                . 1     .      2       . 3       .              4
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                                                                                                                    . 1      . 2    .        3         . 4 York District # 1                                              -          -         -                  -
                                                                                                                         '                                                                             8 Clover District # 2                                            I          !         !                 l                      l     !
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Rock Hill District # 3 : 2  ; 3 4 5g 7 g 8 9 1 . 2 . 3 ., 4 . 5 7 8 . 9 Ft. Mill District # 4 . . . . . . 3 I E B 5 . . 5 5 0 15 30 45 1 Hr. 15 30 5 4 3 45 2 Hrs 15 30 TIME Key to Steps Shown

1. Mobilize buses and drivers

2. Travel to schools (first trip)

3. Load evacuees (first trip)

4. Travel to staging area (first trip)

5. Unload (first trip)

6. Refuel (if necessar%

7. Travel to schools (second trip)

8. Load (second trip)

9. Travel to staging area (second trip)

As Exhibit I shows, there are only three schools within five miles of the plant. They would all be completely evacuated during the first bus trip by their districts. Students from the Mt. Gallant and Catawba schools would be delivered to their staging areas within the first hour. Students from Bethel Elementary would arrive at their staging area about 15 minutes later. Several of the school districts plan to mobilize their buses when an alert is declared and to station the buses at the EPZ schools. Thus, if evacuation were necessary, the students at the schools could immediately be loaded and moved. This would cut 20 to 30 minutes off the evacuation time. CONCLUSION The school district plans for evacuating EPZ schools are both feasible and effective. They have sufficient resources to carry out their plans and have arranged for spare buses, maintenance, backup drivers, staging facilities, and supervision for the students. Most students would be out of the EPZ in an hour and a half. A conservative estimate of the time to evacuate all tne EPZ schools is two hours and 25 minutes. l i 12

APPENDIX A CHARLOTTE-MECKLENBURG SCHOOL DRAFT EVACUATION PLAN l l

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       .         DRAFT                                                                    DRAFT l                                 OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES FOR SCHOOLS LOCATED WITHIN PLANEING RADIUS OF CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION I. PURPOSE The purpose of this procedure is to outline the steps and to identify resources necessary to ensure a timely response for evacuation of schools located within the ten-mile Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for Catawba Nuclear Station.

II. SCOPE This procedure will address only the schools located in EPZ and the proce-dures necessary to evacuate, transport, and account for students and staff that are to be or have been evacuated.

III. OBJECTIVES A. The objectives of these procedures are as follows:

1. To ensure alerting schools in a timely manner to possible conditions at Catawba Nuclear Station

2. To identify resources necessary for evacuation of facilities

3. To identify primary shelter location

4. To identify primary evacuation routes

5. To identify additional resources and to update plan on an annual basis, or as necessary, and to ensure all components of procedures are in a ready status IV. SCHOOLS A. Olympic High School Population: 1,205 4301 Sandy Porter Road- Operational Zone: A-5 Charlotte, N C 28210 Planning Zone: A-2 l Principal: James W. Emerson Telephone: 704-588-0254

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DRAFT DRAFT i B. Steele Creek Elementary School Population: 764 Gallant Lane, Route 2 Operational Zone: A-5 Charlotte, N C 28210 Planning Zone: A-2 Principal: Harold Clawson Telephone: 704-588-2300 { C. Pineville Elementary School Population: 849 Lowery Street Operational Zone: A-10 Pineville, N C 28134 . Planning Zone: A-3 Principal: Robert C. Marshall Telephone: 704-889-2311

        . V. INITIATING PROCEDURES A. Alert and Notification                                                    I l

Upon proper notification and confirmation that an incident has occurred I at Catawba Nuclear Station, each school's principal, or authorized designee, shall implement, and/or activate, with the assistance of local government, the following action:

1. Alert and notify the following in order shown:

a. County Warning Point at 374-3333 (24-hour phone)

b. Superintendent of Schools, or Assistant at 379-7135

c. Safety Director, Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools (CMS) at 379-7205

d. Transportation System (CMS) at 366-8374

2. The primary means of alerting will be the telephone. In addition, CMS Transportation System will dispatch a minimum of one radio-equipped vehicle to operate as back-up com=unications to each school in EPZ.

3. The alert and notification process will include any internal procedures that are not in conflict with the basic plan or supporting procedures.'

l 4. Upon notification, the County Warning Point, Superintendent of Schools, Safety Director, CMS, and Transportation System, CMS, DRAFT DRAFT will put resources on standby to assist in implementing the steps outlined in these procedures. B. Evacuation and Transportation

1. Based on time constraints and seve'ity r of accident / incident at Catawba Nuclear Station, the authority to evacuate the schools will be as follows:

a. School principal, or designee

b. Superintendent or Area Superintendent, CMS

c. School representative in Emergency Operating Center (EOC)

d. Operations Chief in EOC

e. County Warning Point representative

2. It is the responsibility of each school's principal to develop internal procedures for evacuation of school facility. Assistance for evacuation will be available from school resources, and from local government resources upon request. The internal plan or procedure developed can not be in conflict with basic planning document.

3. School buses will be the primary means of transportation. In addition, activity buses, and other supporting vehicles, will be used. Students driving to schools will be permitted to drive their own cars out of the area. The principal will inform I

student drivers to proceed in their own vehicle to shelter location.

4. Teachers and other staff personnel vill drive their own vehicles to shelter location and assist principals and CMS staff in j

accountability of students; however, there is to be at least one l i

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DRAFT DRAFT staff member assigned to each bus load of students that are I being evacuated. -

5. The following numbered buses are located at schools in the ten-mile EPZ:

a. Buses located at Olympic High School:

12 118 211 263 420 526 B14 73 167 251 322 441 542 B16 92 173 252 383 517 560 B65

b. Buses located at Steele Creek or available to Steele Creek:

15 119 206 357 B45 95 157 299 458 100 169 320 B44 a

c. Buses located at Pineville or available to Pineville:

58 116 139 164 247 323 93 123 145 186 254 346 94 129 152 244 270

6. Fifty-one buses are available with a maximum arrival time of thirty minutes. With a student population of 2,818, the fifty-one buses are more than adequate to transport students for evacuation.

i

a. City Department of Transportation buses will be used as backup transportation.

b. All buses will be loaded to maximum, safe capacity, and will be used in most efficient manner.

l 7. Evacuation routes from schools to primary shelter will be as follows: a.. Olympic High School - Sandy Porter to N.C. 49, north on N.C. 49 l to Interstate 85 North to primary shelter at University of North Carolina at Charlotte (UNCC). Driver can also stay on N.C. 49 if so desired. l

o ' DRAFT DRAFT

b. Steele Creek Elementary School will use same route as described in 7.a. above for Olympic High School.

c. Pineville Elementary School will use U.S. Highway 521 North to N.C. 49 North to UNCC.

8. If primary route is blocked, the driver will make the decision about using an alternate route. If assistance'is needed, using the best available method, contact County Police at 374-3333, or 911. Do not stop bus inside the ten-mile EPZ to request assistance.

See attached map #1 for ten-mile EPZ boundary. C. Shelter

1. The primary shelter location is the UNCC facility. ALL students, staff, and school support personnel are to report to this shelter.

2. If the primary shelter is full, directions will then be given to another facility; however, everyone must report to UNCC first.

3. Students living outside the ten-mile EPZ boundary but attending one of the three schools listed in IV. will proceed to shelter with school population, j

4. Students attending a school outside the ten-mile EPZ boundary but live inside the ten-mile EPZ will immediately report this infor=ation to teacher,

5. Students identified in C.4 above will stay in school until school closes, or until picked up by parent or guardian. The principal of the school will ensure that student is either picked up by parent or guardian.or is transported to primary shelter location.

6. The principal, staff, and support personnel will report to shelter manager and provide information as requested or provide assistance I ' - - -

DRAFT DRAFT in sheltee operations as this assistance relates to the schools. i

7. Parent's or guardians will report to shelter to pick up student; '

however, parents or guardians are NOT to drive through or attempt to drive into the ten-mile EPZ once the zone is secure. D. General Concerns and Guidelines ll

1. Once a student bus driver has lef t the ten-mile EPZ, the bus driven by student will not be permitted to re-enter the area.

bus Adult / drivers may re-enter the area, on a voluntary basis, only Aash. if the bus has no passengers.

2. The Transportation System of CHS will use either South Mecklenburg High School or Quail Hollow Junior High School as a staging area to have resources on standby. These resources, as a mininum, should include the following: I

a. Tow truck - one only

b. Gasoline truck - one only I I

c. Mechanics with truck - two each '

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d. School buses with^ drivers - five

3. Each school principal of schools within ten-mile EPZ should develop L

school's own internal procedures and have a response team to carry out the components of these procedures, as well as other supporting I components of basic planning document. t ' i r

4. The procedures, both internal and otherwise, should be exercised to l ensure workability and to identify any weaknesses on an annual ,

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5. It is the responsibility of school system personnel to notify the I e

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DRAFT DRAFT Charlotte-Mecklenburg Emergency Management Office of any changes in school population and resources, and any other school-related data that would have a direct bearing on this document. VI. APPROVAL Submitted: L. Wayne Broome . Charlotte-Mecklenburg Emergency Management Office

           ---Jay M. Robinson Superintendent of Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools Joseph E. Green, Safety Director Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools James W. Emerson, Principal Olympic High School l

Harold Clausen, Principal Steele Creek Elementary School Robert C. Marshall, Principal Pineville Elementary School . l 1

O APPENDIX B YORK SCHOOL DISTRICT 1 DRAFT EVACUATION PLAN i I I l l

EVACUATION PLAN I. PUNPOSE O To establish procedures to effect a controlled evacuation of those schools in School District I located in the 10-mile Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) - of the Catawba Nuclear Station (CNS). II. SITUATION There exist the remote possibility that a radiological incident could occur at the Catawba Nuclear Station. The high probability also exists, that any incident would be an escalating incident, with ample time available to warn the public. Should the wind be in the direction of schools located in this district during a radiological incident, an evacuation could be ordered by the Governor. Should this occur, York Comprehensive High School (including Floyd D. Johnson Vocational Center), Harold C. Johnson Middle School, McCelvey Elementary School, and Jefferson Primary School would be evacuated. III. ASSIGNMENTS A. Corbett Gibson is designated as the lead coordinator for this plan. In his absence Kenneth Love will assume this role. Elements of this plan that require coordination are the responsibility of the lead coordinator. B. The School Principals of York Comprehensive High School (including Floyd D. Johnson Vocational Center), Harold C. Johnson Middle School, McCelvey Elementary School, Jefferson Primary School and administrators at Education Service Center and Episcopal Church Home will serve as the coordinator for his/her school. Each principal / administrator, or his/her designee, will be , the point of cortact for any instructions regarding an evacuation order. IV. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS , Each of the four affected schools will evacuate using school' buses and private , vehicles. Episcopal Church Home will use its vans and private vehicles located at each cottage to evacuate. Escort will be by the York City Police. School convoys will proceed via State Highway 49 to Sharon Elementary School. Sharon ! Elementary School will serve as the Reception Center for evacuees. Evacuees will be registered at the Sharon Elementary School Reception Center and if necessary assigned a shelter location for any prolonged stay. The Reception Center will be staffed by personnel of the Emergency h'elfare Service. 'Ih e school's staff will assist, along with security personnel, in crowd control. The Reception Center will serve also as an assembly point for pick up by parents whose residence is outside the 10-mile EPZ. For those who live within the area being evacuated, they will be assigned shelter as a family group. V. SCHOOLS Private Students Staff Buses- Vehicles York Comprehensive High School 1,000 76 2 237 Harold C. Johnson Middle School 1,025 60 17 - 47 McCelvey Elementary School 725 s52 11 S0 l Jefferson Primary School S75 S1 8 39 l Episcopal Church Home . 36 6 3(Church Home Vans) 6

• Education Service Center 25 8 3(2 minibuses plus 6 1 regular)
• Itinerant personnel (teachers, social workers, nurses, psychologist) will assist as -

assigned in school where they're working at time of evacuation notice and then go hv POV fn % ron Ficmentary School Reception Center.

VI. M A. 1.EAD COORDINATOR The Lead Coordinator, or his alternate, will be notified by telephone, tone - alert radio or other means by competent authority of the evacuation order. Upon notification the Lead Coordinator will:

1. Authenticate the evacuation order by calling the unlisted telephone number furnished by the York County Emergency Preparedness Director

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2. Notify district Director of Transportation of the evacuation order

3. Notify each school Principal, the Director of Special Services, and Administrator of Episcopal Church Home of the evacuation order

4. Notify the principal, Sharon Elementary School, that an evacuation is in progress

5. Notify district Business Manager / Administrative Assistant for Support Services who in turn will notify maintenance personnel of their assigned schools (maintenance personnel will be assigned to carry two-way radio to schools in city of York to provide additi-onal Radio communications between carriers will then district office and schools being evacuated.

proceed to Sharon Elementary School Reception Center when schools are evacuated in York).

6. Notify the York City Police and request convoy assistance to Sharon Reception Center

7. Notify the York County Emergency Preparedness Agency when evacuat all schools is completed .

B. DISTRICT DIRECTOR OF TRANSPORTATION

1. Maintain and keep current a list of available school buses

2. Insure that bus drivers are briefed on the contents of this plan 3.' Make available any school vehicles for transportation of evacuees from Sharon Elementary School Receptiem _ Center to shelters if necessary C. SCHOOL PRINCIPALS Each School Principal will:

1. Be responsible for~ the evacuation of his/her school when notified by I the Lead Coordinator

2. Designate staff personnel who will insure that all students and staff have vr.cated all buildings and grounds

3. Maintain and keep current a list of privately owned vehicles (POV's)

4. Insure that POV drivers are briefed on the contents of this plan S. Designate available.

someone to act as the convoy leader if York Proceed directly to the Sharon Reception Center.) ' .

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6. Designate staff persenns! to assist in the evacusticn of his/hsr school cnd in monitoring crswd etntrol ct th3 Sharen Reception Centsr

7. Notify the Lead Coordinator that your school evacuation is completed and that you are proceeding to the Sharon Reception Center D. TEACHERS

                 ~ Each teacher will:                                                   .

1. Complete and keep current a registration form on each student.

(Registration Forms will be furnished by the Department of Social Services.)

2. Be responsible for transhorting registration forms to Sharon Reception Center. Once there, forms are to be delivered to registration personnel, assuring there is one form for ea'ch student evacuated, no more, no less

3. Notify the principal when classroom is evacuated and all students are accounted for 4.

Brief his/her class on evacuation procedures contained in this plan VII. SHARON ELEMENTARY SCH001. RECEPTION CENTER - f The Reception Center is a key element in the evacuation process during any manmade or natural emergency.- It serves as,s. focal point for control and other purposes. It is the~ responsibility of the York County Emergency Welfare Service to operate the Reception Center to include; registration of evacuess; shelter assignments; monitoring of evacuees and vehicles for radiological centsmination; decontamination, if necessary; providing medical care for evacuees and providing basic personal needs for evacuees. Should an evacuation,be ordered, a state of emergency is in fact, in effect. If an evacuation is ordered the principal,.Sharon Elementary School will:

1. Dismiss the student po'pulation from Sharon and Nickory drove Elementary Schools

2. Retain staff personne'l to organite space, desks, telephone manning, as an example, to assist Emergency Welfare personnel. (All the above should be coordinated with the York County EPD Director and County EWS.)

i 3. Be, or designate, the person to act as the point of contact between Sharon i School tnd EWS. (Consider relief Jor this person should it become a lengthy ) operation.) , _#^4-s a a #

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    '$ , -      ,                                                                                                                      6 ATTACHMENT 1, ALERT LIST, YORK SCHOOL DISTRICT I,.        EVACUATION PLAN Name                              Title                                                  Telephone Number Corbett Gibson                    Assistant Superintendent                               684-9916 (office)             <

684-2698 (home) Kenneth Love Business Mana2er/Adminis- 684-9916 (office) trative Assistant 222-3975 (home) Nathaniel Davis Director of Transportation 684-2336 (office) 222-7370 (home) i Bob Harrison Principal, York 684-2336 (office)  ! Comprehensive High School 684-6541 (home) Wilbert Holmes Principal, Harold C. 684-4451 (office) j Johnson Middle School 327-6378 (home) , Bill Plaxco Principal, McCelvey 684-2311 (office) i ! Elementary School 684-4079 (home) i Bobbie Johnson Principal, Jefferson 684-2381 (office) Primary School 222-9780 (home)

.                 Colvin Stephenson                 Principal, Sharon and                                  927-7137 (office) 4
                                             .      Hickory Grove Elementary 925-2144 (office)

(home - unlisted) Lillian Nance Director of Special 684-9326 (office) Services 684-3980 (home) i George O'Neal Administrator, 684-4011 (office) Episcopal Church Home 366-1838 (home) k e l r

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APPENDIX ' CLOVER SCHOOL DISTRICT 2 . DRAFT EVACUATION PLAN j.. e A 9 9% 4.. P

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CLOVER SCHOOL DISTRICT #2 0F YORK COUNTY EMERCENCY PREPAREDNESS PIAN Natural Disaster . In the event of any natural disaster such as. hurricanes, tornadoes, etc., all schocls in the CloverDirector. Preparedness School District will be available for use by the York County Emergency Schools will be opened as shelters at the Director's request. Catawba Nuclear Plant Emergency ) The action to be taken will be determined by the emergency level: 1. Unusual Event - If the level of the event is classified as unusual event and the students are in school, the Clover School District will close.rschool and send all students and personnel home just as is done in the case of inclement weather closings.* (If the warning is given before 6:30 A.M., schools will remain closed and buses will not operate.)

                                  '* Exception: Students living in the two (2) mile radius area of the Catawba Station will be sent by bus to the Bethany pick-up site.

1 2. Alert - Buses will be moved from Clover High School to Bethany and Clover Junior High so that evacuation for Site Area Emergency can be implemented immediately. 3. Site Area Emergency - All students will be directed to the Bethany School pick-up site. The following order of evacuation will be used: (6 buses) A. Buses will leave Clover High School and proceed to Bethel School. All students at Bethel will be moved by bus to Bethany School.  ; I (12 buses) B. High School students will board buses and be taken to the Bethany School pick-up site.*

• Students that come to school in automobiles will be dismissed as soon as the buses to be used at Bethel have cleared the parking area.

{ l Clover High School personnel will be dismissed as soon a's all buses and student vehicles have lef t the school grounds. (9 buses) C. Buses will leave Clover High School and proceed to Clover Junior 1 HiRh School. All students will be moved to the Pethany pick-up j site. i - } *0ne bus will be sent to the Day care Center and will i transport all 3 and 4 year olds to the Bethany pick-up site. D. Eighteen of the buses used to transport Bethel and Clover High students to Bethany will be sent to Kinard Elementary School and Clover Middle School to transport these students to

the Bethany pick-up site'. Clover Middle School and Kinard Elementary School personnel will be dismissed as soon as all , buses have lef t the school grounds. (  ? l 4. General Emergency - Sama procedures as Site Area Emergency. This plan to move all students to the Bethany School pick-up site also includes the l following contingency options: i A. Four regular school buses, two district activity buses and two district-l owned (12 passenger) vans are being held for emergency use (assigned buses

 ,                having mechanical problems, students being left in the initial evacuation phase, etc.)                                                                           '

i B. This plan also includes esacuation of all students enrolled. It is unlikely that 100% of the pupils enrolled will be in attendance; however, the plan of evacuation is based on this possibility. C. .'Ine main evacuation route will be Highway 55. However, all bus drivers have been made thoroughly familiar with alternate routes to Bethany School in the event that Highway 55 is too congested. D. Parents will be required to notify the school where their child attends, in writing, if the parents plan to pick their child up at the school rather than the Bethany pick-up site. This will be discouraged but will be included in the plans. Vehicles as described in (A) will make clean-up sweeps approximately one hour after the initial pick-ups and any students j still at the schools will be taken to the Bethany pick-up site. School principals and assistant principals will remain at the schools until

all pupils are off the school campus.

E. All buses sent to evacuate students from Bethel and Clover High will be loaded to the maximum 60 passenger limit. Any bus with less than capacity will proceed to the Clover Junior High School / District Office Evacuation Operations Center. At that point, the bus will either be loaded vij:h  ! additional students or instructed to proceed to Bethany. F. Field Trips - Students on field trips west of the Clover Junior High/ District 1 Office Operations Center will be taken to the Bethany pick-up site and the buses will then return to the Clover Junior High/ District Office Operations ) Center. 1 Students on field trips east of the Clover Junior High/ District Office operations Center will be routed to the operations center and then trans-ported to the Bethany pick-up site. G. The bus for handicapped students will make regular pick-ups and proceed to the Bethany pick-up site.  ! H. If buses are on routes when the emergency sirens are sounded, all drivers will be instructed to immediately return to the nearest school to .their location for instructions. I. The District Office Operations Center will remain open until ordered to close by the York County Emergency Preparedness Directer. .

f APPENDIX D ROCK HILL SCHOOL DISTRICT 3 DRAFT EVACUATION PLAN f h

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324-4028 i. , Director of L.+E*H= < 328-9814 328-6118 3 b.hcam Area Coor'H"e , Rock Hill High Area CoyH"~ 324-0221' 324-3100 4 j 1 YCRK COLNIY [ ' h ggs:7 Mana. w . 328-6171 (civil Defanse) . 1

                     .Shariff's o m ~ - York.                                                                                    684-9261                                                                                                                         .: <

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                                                                      - Rocic Hill                                               327-2021 Councy Manager - York.                                                                                     684-9261 cm or sock HIII                                                                                                                                                             .
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y . PED 0D OF tmIIYING BUS DRIVERS AND SCHOOLS IN CASE OF AL"C na Rock HLH School District Three AeWiM erative Office staff will serve as the primary source of alerting schools once an alert is received fran the County Emergency Preparedness Agency. n.e ordar of ca ns shall be as fo nows:

1. The first call shall be to the fo nowing transportation personnel:

Operatiens Center -- George Ha=pton -- 324-4028 Northastern High -- Nancy Race -- 328-9814 Rock Hill High -- Jim Anderson -- 324-0221

2. The second can will go to the individual schools affected by the energency:

ItO MELE EVACUATION Mt. Ganant Elementary - Zone C-1 - 329-1200 329-1333 Rock Hin High - Beyond' Limit - 324-3100 324-1700 FIVE MIIE EVACUATION (All Above) Ebinport El - e m - Zone C-2 - 366-7213 366-9995 Rosewood Elementary - Zone C-1 - 366-4612 366-3554 Rock Hi.ll High - Beyond Limit - 324-3100 324-1700 TEN MIIE EVACUATION (All Above) Belleview Elementary - Zone C-2 - 324-4725 3269084 Ebenezer Elementary - Zone C-2 - 327-3972 328-9074 Finley Road Elementary - Zone C-2 - 328-0949 328-9078 Northside Elementary - Zone C-2 - 327-4376 327-9929 Rich:end Drive Elen. - Zone C-2 - 366-1013 366-1601 Sunset Park Elem. - Zone C-2 - 327-2175 328-9083 Sylvia Circle Elem. - Zone C-2 - 327-4700 328-9082 York Road Elementary - Zone C-2 - 328-8264 327-3692 Alter ative School - Zone C-2 - 323-1624 323-0439 Rawlinson Rd. Jr. High - Zone C-2 - 328-2451 327-3329 Sullivan Junior High - Zone C-2 - 366-8181 366-5242 Northwestern High - Zone C-2 - 328-6118 328-9986 Career Development Ctr. - Zone C-2 - 327-2003 327-6990 Castle Heights Jr. High - Beyond Limit - 324-3165 324-3946 Edgewood Center - Beyond Limit - 327-7061 328-9077 Independence El - r= y - Beyond Lir:ic - 324-0622 324-1209 lasslie I Elementary - Beyond Licd.t - 324-0100 324-0103 lesslie II Elementary - Beyond Limit - 324-0531 324-0505 Cakdale E1= man" 7 - Beyond Limit - 327-5926 328-9079

3. The third call win alert an ad:dnistrators involved in the operation of the -s=cy. -

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4E i hu1 EAR EVACIL"' ION PIAN

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N Table of Contents

                 .                            York County School District 'n:ree (Rock Hill, S.C.)

Inside Cover: E:nergency Telephone Ntobers I. Proposed School Evacuatica Plan l A. IntrcheH m . B. Iocation of Emergency Center -- Ycrk County C. Evacuation Time Frames l II. Alternative Mobility and Interim Pick-up Centers 1 III. General Overview of Mass Evacuation Plan IV. Interds Pick-up. Centers Crisis night Shelter Assig:=ents V. Bus Schedules Narrative VI. Chronographical Flow Diagram of Bus Mobility - Daily.Nor=s of District Operation . VII. Area Coordinators' Responsibilities (Full Ev=mmHm) VIII. Fleet Source, School Priority, Allot:nent and Interim Center Assig:ments IX. 'Itc Mile Ev=r"=Hm Plan X. Five Mile Evacuation Pla' n XI. Ten Mile Evacuation Plan XII. Mobility Charc Data XIII. State School Bua Sa:Hng cycities (York, Clover, Rock Hill) XIV. Driver - Parent Permission to Drive Form XV. Radiological %qe::cy Respcase Map l XVI. Rock Hill -- Interim Shelter location Map \ - i l l

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PROPOSED SCHOOL EVACUATION PLAN CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION AREA This draft will need to be discussed with administrative staff and principals involved to be certain the evacuatien procedure is workable. We wel~come any changes that will enable us to move students and staff safer and quicker in case of an emergency. This information will need to be reviewed and evaluated frequently to be certain it is kept up to date. The following information indicates the organizational pattern for command responsibilities, methods of alert, transportation of pupils, evacuation routes and location of students attending school inside and outside of the ten mile radius of Catawba Nuclear Station, methods of notification of bus drivers, bus schedules and police assistance. Also, included is a memorandum to parents of bus drivers and consent forms. The Emergency Operation Center The Emergency Operation Center will be located at Rock Hill City Hall in the basement Civil Defense Center and it will be under the direction of the York County Director of General Services. The first six (6) to eight (8) hours are directed locally to a} low the State Emergency Response Team enough time to relocate and establish their controls. The total emergency plan for the county will give each household, business establishment, school, etc., complete directions for evacuation. (Certain groups are assigned to specific zones to alert people.of conditions by public address systems. Back-up units will be used in case of problems.) This plan, ideally, will allow four (4) hours for students to complete evacuation of the 10 mile area. However, we would want to move al.1 of our students and staff members out of the area as safely and quickly as possible. Evaucation Time Frames First Phase: 60 minutes to Interim Staging Centers 120 minutes to Crisis Flight Shelter l Second Phase: 95 minutes to Interim Staging Centers 120 minutes to Crisis Flight Shelter i

                .$^          ROCX ll!LL' SCHOOL DISTRfCT NUMBER TilREE DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AN EMERGENCY EVACUATION PROPOSAL (A Proposal for Alternative Mobility and Relocation of Reception Centers)

The Rock Hill School District Three Director of Transportation requests the following alterations and reestablishing of Reception Centers for evacuation zones C-1 and C-2. Please note th'at the ten-mile evacuation radius passes through the inter-city of Rock Hill sucn tnat its maximum extent excludes the following facilities: INTERIM INTERIM . CENTERS SCHOOL LOCATION CENTERS CHURCH LOCATION 1 Oakdale Elementary 6 Southside Baptist (21-Bypass South) 3 Rock Hill High 2 Catawba Baptist (21-Bypass South on Catawba Church Rd.) 4 Independence Elementary 7 Hopewell Presbyterian (21-Bypass South) 5 Lesslie Elementary 8 Mt. Holly. Methodist (Hwy. 901 or Mt. Holly Road South) Proposed Alterations '

1. There will be three plans for disaster evacuation; namely, The Two-Mile Plan, The Five-Mile Plan and The Ten-Mile Plan. )

2. The above listed schools will be excluded from these three evacuation plans.

3 The SCHOOLS and CHURCHES 'above will be Interim Stacing Centers. 4 The Lewisville Shelter Centers will be activated for the General Public and/or any non-school related citizens.

5. The school children would be dispersed from the above listed schools to the following location priorities if further distance is required:

1.- Area churches, facilities of sufficient size and b accessibility between Rock Hill and Lancaster or Chester depending upon wind direction,. 2- The cities of Lancaster and Chester should further  ; distance be required. The movement would be at right angles to the existing prevsfling winds rather } than to attempt to " outrun" any drifting or suspended  ; fallout.

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Update Monitors i As the ingredients of this pla'n are reviewed, corrections, improvements and any other additions appropriate to the efficiency of implementation will be installed. Suggestions for the enhancement of the above are therefore both welcome and solicited.

GENERAL OVERVZEW 0F MASS EVACUATION PLAN 1* The Director of Transportation and the Area Coordinators of Transportation will have full authority of bussing operations. This will g* . State owned busses will be dispatched to all schools involved. be done on the first notification unless specific directions are given contrary-wise.

3. District activity busses will be held at the Operations Center. Substitute drivers from Northwestern High or Maintenance Personnel will drive the activity busses should such be needed for school evacuation.

4. Busses and drivers will remain at their assigned locations and upon loading, leave imediately to the District Three Interim Staging Centers or until further directions are received from Department of Transportation officials or the School Principal.

5. Each bus will be loaded as full (over-full) as possible (sitting, standing, etc.). The task is to move all students as quick as possible. Comfort is l not a factor of consideration. District activity busses and vans will be used to " trouble-shoot". They will remain at the Operation: Center for

!                directions.

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6. The Director of Transportation and the Area Coordinators will remain at their offices until all reouired evacuation is completed.

7. Back-up personnel in full charge when initial designated authorities (See

                 #1 above.) are absent.

Of rector of Transportation 'l Area-Coordinators - Assistant High School (Transportation)

Principals 1

8. All maintenance personnel would travel immediately to the Operations Center and report to Mr. Oates for directions.

9. Teachers will accompany their students for supervisory purposes.

10 School secretaries will-upkeep and carry lists of students by Home Room and absentees to the District Interim Staging Centers with the students. Upon arrival teac' liers and secretaries will take a roll call and phone to the Director of Transportation to report "All Accounted For" or those unaccounted for.

11. Principals (Assistant Principals) will check their facilities (classrooms,

! restrooms, locker rooms, gyms, closets, cafeteria areas, etc. - all areas) and then will _ leave by their personal cars. l e 9 [ .

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            .       YORIC QUNrY SC1001; DISIRICI IHREE INIERIM AND CRISIS ELIGE EVACUATION N ASSICAM Oakdale Elementary Center        Crisis n ight SPalter w.ter #1 Edgewood Center                  Highway 72 South to Finley Road Elementary           Cbaster, S. C.

Sylvia Circle Elementary Pick-up Center #2 Catawba Baotist Church Crisis night Shelter  ; Northweste:n High School Higlway 72 Rawlinson Road Junior High Chester, S. C. Pick-up Center #3 Rock Hill High Center Crisis n iche Shelter Ebinport Elementary I-77 South to Richburg, Mt. Gallant Elementary S.C. Rosewood Elementary York Road Elementary Alternative Center Career Development Center Pick-up Center #4 Independence Elementary Center Crisis night Sbalter Sullivan Junior High I-77 South to Richburg, S.C. Pick-up Center #5 Imsslie Elementary Center Crisis night Shelter Belleview Elementary Hwy 21 East to Pcy 5-Northside Elementary East to Pcf 521 - South to lancaster, S. C. Pick-up Center #6 Southside Baptist Crisis night Shelter Richn:xid Drive Elementary Hwy 21 East to Hwy 5-East to Hwy 521 - South to T - =cer, S. C. Pick-up Center #7 Hopewell Presovterian Crisis night Shelter , Ebenezer Ave. El - em y Hwy 21 East to Hwy 5-l East to Hwy 521 - South to Lancaster, S. C. Pick-up Center #8 Mt. Holly Methodist Crisis n ight Shelter Sunset Park Fl=="""7 Hwy 901 -South to Richburg, S. C. I

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BUS SOEDUES l Busses in the designated areas are pi h4 9 h s & ts from abour 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. Trarefore, busses would be available to evacuate students only during the time span f:cm 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. gt-AI_a r: Drivers will ca:plete their bus routes should an alert happen while their regular bus routes are being run g the remim. All drivers would then retu:n their busses to Rock FJ.ll High School or Northwestern High School. Edgewood Center busses l would report to Edgewood only and evacuate those students to  ! l Oakdale El e mn/ School 4Wintely. l l PM-AIERT: Should an alert occur while regular bus routes are befr.g run g the afternoon, drivers would return 4W4mtely to their first g routing school for further directions. Principals would telephone the Area-Coordinators to let them kra,i which busses are at their schools when the busses retu:n. *

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AREA CO-ORDINATORS RESPONSIBILITIES EDE EELL EVACUATION ACTION  ; FfRsT FVACUATTON IRIP! NoRTHWE9 TERN Co-ORDfNATOR UPON FIRST ALERT: SEND 7. BUSSES TO P.T. GALLANT ELEM. SEND _6 BUSSES TO EBINPORT ELEM. SEND ll BUSSES TO RAWL. RD. JR. HIGH ROCx HfLL HtGH CO-ORDfNATOR UPON FIRST ALERT: SEND _2 BUSSES TO ROSEWOOD ELEs. SEND _j BUSSES TO RICHMOND DR. ELEM. SEND 2Q BUSSES TO N.ORTHWESTERN HIGH SEND _1 BUSSES TO YORK ROAD ELEM. l SEND Z BUSSES TO FINLEY ROAD ELEM. f SEND 3 BUSSES TO EBENEZER ave. ELEM. SEND l}. BUSSES TO SYLVI A CIRCLE ELEM.

                                                                                          ~

t SECOND EVACUATION IRfD? - NORTHWESTERN CO-ORDINATOR GOES TO CASTLE HEIGHTS' UPON ARRIVAL: SEND 2 BUSSES TO ALTERNATIVE SCHOOL l

                                                  ~

ROCK HILL HfGH CO-ORDiNATOR! SEND 20 BUSSES TO SULLIVAN JR. HIGH SEND $. BUSSES TO NORTHSIDE F SEND 7 BUSSES TO BELLEVIEW SEND _j, BUSSES TO SUNSET PARK 3uS DRIVERS AT Tm FOLLCHING SCHOOLS WIu. RETURN IHEIR BUSSES IO CASTLE HEIGH [ i!GH SCHOOL W 72-BYPASS MUTH. E LESSLIEELEMENTARYSCHOOL  ! 0AXDALEELEFENTARYScHOOL HOPEWELL PRESBYTER!AN CHURCH INDEPENDENCEELEMENTARYSCHOOL CATAWBA 3APTISTCHURCH ROCK HILL HIGH SCHOOL (LAST) , fir.HOLLYMEluoDISTCHURCH l SouTHSIDEBAPTISTIEMPLE , 3 0

                                                    -                                 i

CATAWBA NUCLEAR EVACUATION PLAN ScunCE, SCHOOL PRtoniTY, ALLCTMENT AND surfTre DEETfMATION AstfSNMENTI (To) (Faca) (To?. Busses InTEn!n lausgg Ffes7 'f' EE.EnEn O't t f "* 7 '" NWHS MT. GALLANT Eun. 9 RoCx Ht a HIGH SCHOOL NWHS EstNPoni ELEMENTAny 6 RoCx Hia HtcH SCHCQt. NWHS- RAwt. RD. Jn. Hras 17 CATAWBA 3 APT!sT CHURCH

                                                                             ~

NWHS CAREEN DEVEL. CENTEn 5 - 37 RoCx Hra HIGH SCHOOL RHHS Rosewood Eunniany 7 RoCx Hra litoH SCHOOL RHHS RicanoND OR. EuMENTAnY 6 SOUTMstDE 3 APT!sT TEMPu RHHS NonTHwssTEnn HIGa 20 CATAwsA BAPits7 CHURCH RHHS Yonx ROAD EuMENTARY 5 Rocx Hra HIGH SCHOOL ' RHHS' FINuY ROAD EuMENTARY 7 OAKDALE Et.in. SCNeck RHHS EsEntIER AVE. Eux, 6 HCPEWELL PRE 33YTEntAN CHURCH RHHS Syt.v!A CraCu Eun. 4 - 51 OARDALE ELEn. SCHeoL

                                                                    .                    92 sussrs to ac: tar na szmda:P (sr. AmE's s sr; HARr's DC:22ED)

EvacuAnar DczazM Cnres ac:um as:Es :ci Co) (110e suSSE3 DCDuM SOLRCE SOCOL NEZ:ED C2CDL lutts Su111vm Jmice Righ 20 Ir-t--%cs Elaner.tary schol nal=4=1 = sesac Park r1-e=ry 6 It. Holly Mathcxitst CNech Hopossil styrthside Elmanicary 6 I4 sella Elsnancary Schcol l Presbyceri m . RHHs Ballavier " r ---y 7 tasalia Elemmcary scNot a.H. A'**ve Cancar 2 Bock Hill High school castle Heights Jr. High 17 por.k Hill High, School

                                   *st. Ams's (S. Jonas Ave.)                  2            Mc. Holly M :.We 0:ur:h                                             t
                                   *st. tiary's (Crarined Ed.)                 1 = $8       Mt. Holly Machodisc Ourch WHEN ALL      All bus drivers will go 4'==d4=r=17 to Castle M*4ght s Junior ROUTES        High School celIky 72 Bypass South.                                                                                                                  ,

COMPLETED '

                          $7t1Mf NTs* MOVES AMD ScWoot Eles loFATfnN9 AFTER $FESND YRfp 3425       RcCx Hra HraH ScHoot - 22                    2400          CATAWBA 3 APT sf CHURCH - 20 1300        inDEr, Eun. SCHoot - 20                      450         HOPEWELL PaEs3Y. CHURCH- 0 850       OAxDALE ELEM. SCHOOL -2                        450        MT Heay METH. CHunCH - 9 950       LEssLIE ELEn. SCHoCL - 13 _.Jid                           ScuTH3tDE BAPT. IENPLE - 6 10275                                                                          r t

ALL aussEs so To CAsTu HEIGHTS Jn HIGH - 92 ' b _________- __ _______ _ _______ _ __ _______ - __ ~

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50 MIII EVACUATION FIAN This infonnacim will provide you with school nee, the Civil Defense zone:in which the school is located, the proposed evacuation rouca, and the Intertn Staging Center. Sco0IS t.rrrwu: E. GAIIANI ELDENTARY (ZONE:C-1) UPN AIEr: A. SEND BUSSES TO E. GALLANT ELDECARY AND IOID STAND-BY STATUS. B. AIEKr ROCK EIL EGH SQo0L OF STAND-BY EVACUATIN PIAN: E. GAIIANI ELWENIARY SIUDENIS WIII BE EVACthru TO ROCK HIII HIGH SGOOL. EVACUATION ROUE: FULIN Mr. GAI1 ANT (195) (EAST) TO ILY 21 BYPASS (AT lOLIDAY INN). TURN RIGE (SOUIH) ON ILY 21 BUASS 70 IM 6 (OLD FMM IM). TURN RIGE (SOUND ON IM 6 TO CEL-RIVER ROAD (ILY 50). TURN

 ~                         RIGC ON CEL-RIVER ROAD (FM 50) TO ROCK HIII HIGH SOCOL.

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CATAh7A NUCIEAR FACILITY FIVE MIIE EVActRTION PLAN This infomation will provide you with school name, the Civil Defense zone in which the school is located, the proposed evacuation , route, and the Interim Se=dng Center. g ZONE EVACIRTION ROUIE Mt. Gallant Elementary C-1 Follow M::. c.allarit Road (Wy 195) Northeast to Hwy 21 Bypass (near Holiday Inn). Turn right I (East) on Hwy 21 Bypass to Old Emsslie Hwy (Rd. 6). Turn right (East) en Old Lesslie N y (Rd. 6) to Celriver Road (Hwy 50). Turn right on Celriver Rd. (Hwy 50) south to Rock Rill High Sc h l. Ebinport Elementary C-2 Follow calmnane Bypass (Hwy 161 - North) to Mt. r=11=ne Road (Hwy 195) . Turn right en Mt. r-=11=nc Road (Hwy 195) Northeast to Hwy 21 . Rosewood Elementary Bypass. Turn right (East) on Hwy 21 Bypass to Old I4sslie Hwy (Rd. 6). Turn right (East) en Old Imsslie Hwy (Rd. 6) to Celriver Rd. (Wy 50). Turn right (South) on Celriver Rd. (by 50) to Rock sin High Schl. P l 4 I h a l

CATAWBA NIX 1 EAR FACILITY EN MIIE EVACUATION PIAN m information Will Frevide you with school name, the Civil Defense m in m the school is located, the proposed evacuation route, and the Tne.cfm Stagir4 Center. g DISASUR 2CNE EVACCATICN ROUE g , c 31,ne F1.m.ne=vy C-1 Travel East on Mt. 611=nt Rd. (195) to Celanese Bypass. Turn left (North) en Celanese Bypass (161) to Hwy 21 (Cherry Road). Turn right (West) on Hwy 21 to ' Old Is.sslie Hwy (Hwy 6). Turn right (East) on Hwy 6 to Celriver Rd. (Hwy 50) . ! Turn right (South) on Hwy 50 to Rock Hill High School. Rosewood E1= mane =7 C-1 Co to Celanese Bypass (161). Turn left (North) on Celanese Bypass to Hwy 21 (Cherry Road). Turn right (West) on Hwy 21 to Old Iasslie Hwy (Hwy 6). Turn right (East) on Hwy 6 to Celriver Road (Hwy 50). Turn ri Hill High School. ght on Hwy 50 to Rock

         ' Alternative Center                      C-2          Follow Hwy 5 (East) (Black Street) to Career Development Centar                C-2          Hwy 72 Bypass. Turn left (North) on York Road Elementary                     C-2          Hwy 72                                                         s to Firetower Road (Hwy 710). <

Turn (East) on Firetower Road to Rock Hill High School. Nortbuestern High School C-2 Follow Bry 5 (South) to Hackle Blvd. Rar14 nam Road Jr. High C-2 (901). Turn right (South) on Heckle Blvd. to Ery 72. Turn right cn Hwy 72 to Hwy

21. Turn right (East) cm Hwy 21 to Catawba Church Road (Hwy 143). Turn right (East) on Catawba Church Road to Catawba Baptist Church.

Fa w c',ne=" FiElley Road F1==ne=7 C-2 C-2 Follow Heckle Blvd. to 91"Am Street. Turn right (South) on 91"Am Street to l P Sylvia circla F1-e=7 C-2 Ery 72 Bypass. Bare right (South) on , Ery 72 Bypass to Country Club Road. Turn , left on Country Club Road to M dale j El-e=vy School. j d 0 1

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                                                      .                             %4>.n                 1 My      i Page Two                                                                                          "Is1 CATAWBA NUCLEAR FACILITY                                                                            t '

TEN-MILE EVACUATION PLAN , SCHOOL DISASTER ZONE EVACUATION ROUTE - j Ebenezer Ave. Elementary C-2 Follow Oakdale Ave. (South) to E. White Street. Turn left on E. White Street to N Turn left (Northeast)y.on 72 Ny. Bypass. 72 Bypass to Ny. 21 Bypass. Turn right on Ny. 21 Bypass (South) l to Hopewell Presbyterian Church. Sullivan Junior High C-2 Follow Cherry Road to Ny. 21 Bypass. Turn right on Ny. 21 Bypass to Old Lesslie Highway (6). Turn right on Old Lesslie Highway (6) to Calrived Road (50). Turn right on Celriver Road (50) to Independence Elementary School. Belleview Elementary C-2 Follow Hwy. 21 South to Ny. 31. Northside Elementary C-2

• Bear right and turn lef t on Ny. 31 to Lesslie Elementary.

Sunset Park Elementary C-2 Follow Heckle Blvd. (East) to Ny. 72 Bypass. Turn. right on Ny. 72 Bypass to Ny. 901 (Mt. Holly Road). Turn left on Mt. Holly Road (Ny. 901 South) i

                                           .            to Mt. Holly Methodist Church.                 .

l l Castie Heights Jr. High C-2 Follow Fire Tower Road (Ny. 710) East to Rock Hill High School. j Richmond Drive Elementary C-2 Follow Cherry Road to Ny. 21 l l Bypass. Turn right on Ny. 21 ' l Bypass (South)toSouthside l ,, Baptist Temple.. St. Anne's (South Jones Ave.) C-2 Follow Heckle Bypass to Ny 72. l St. Mary's (Crawford Road) C-2 Turn right on Ny 72 Bypass to Mt. Holly Road (Wy 901). Turn left (South) on Mt. Holly Road to Mt. Holly Methodist Church.

SCHDDL (VAClaAllen steltlli CIWull . 90tK Milt 5Cla00t pistalCI Inmit toad Source e Student Per f irst Clearlag Crisis C lear ts's 548mel Susses of tv tuallen Ilme f liglit 1t== Fes=1.tlane bus shxded Busses teater JMin.l_ Shelters JMjna ),

• Selleslee Elementasy 500 75 la lussi Letslie Elte. Scheel second Irly t.ecaster 140 95 themeter Elementary 450 2h 6 suet 5 thagwwell Presbyterles th. 60 Richburg 120 lbsaport Elementary 400 75 6 taat5 Seck Mill Nigh Scheel 60 Richbeerg 120 Edgeweed Center 100 52 S Miel Edgeuseet Sandele Elem. Scheel 60 Chester 120 .

Fieley Dead Elementary 500 75 7 Riets 0.ndale flee. 5theol to Chester 120 set. Callant Elementary 640 75 g pack Hill High Scleel same5 60 Ric h rg 120 merthside Elementary 450 6* 75 N,lessileSten.Scheel Second Irly teacaster 140 35 . nortb estera Nigh 1300 65 20 seats Catauba Baptist Church 60 Ric h rt 120 Sansl. 8d. Jr. Illgh 1100 65 17 seats Catautaa Baptist Camarch 60 Chester 120 Ricanned Dr. Elementary 450 25 6 ' sa46 Southside Baettst temple 60 Ric h rg 120 R. st. Alternettre Center 30 65 2 e mets och Nlll Nigh School Se Irly Chester 120 CDC (Vecettomal) 325 65 5 seats Rock N!!I Nigh Scheel 60 Chester 120 Asseused Elementary 4e8 75 2 Riet5 Hock Hill High Scheel 60 Ric h rg 120 5estlevee Junter Nigh 1300 65 20* lad. Elem. School Rest 5 Second Trip Ric h rg 120

• 95 Senset Part Elemeetary 450 75 6* Ashdale Mt. sently teethodist th. Second Trly tencaster 140 95 Syltle Circle Elementary 250 75 4 Iset5 Sandele Elem. Scheel 60 Chester 120 Test Dead Elementary 350 75 5 samts Beck Nill Nigh School 60 Ric h rg 120 Castle sets. Jr. pigh 1100 65 17 Ea g neck Mill Nigh Scheel 95 g Richrg 120 St. Anne's Cathelle Ch. 150 75 2 Sekdale set. Nelly Methodist Ch.

. 95 T '~' Richburg 120 St. Anne's Catholic Ch. _ 30 25 J Sendale Mt. Holly Methodist Ch. 95, Richburg slo 10455 153 letal tusses la District - g3 Assissements: 56

• O at Ate:S 0 e 32 at samis Susses hermelly en Campus: _30 e 0 at Asets e e 28 at easts 3e at CDC 23 e g Adult Muses O e 6 at Edgewood (Mint) 4 e 3 Adult slumes (ning) 5:=sent vehicles at Nigh Schouls: anais 800 segistered 400 e. Ca.pos (Isti tel asers arn memo en c, ac~aJnemn

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CATAWBA flX1FAR PlM EVACI'ATIm PIR! i ECC HILL SuiOOL BUS MIWP. EWISSIm RW l I, . CONSENT TO 1 IRIVE A SOCOL BUS IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY EVACtjATICN AT Tif CATAWBA

              ?AJCLEAR PLANr.                                                                   )

fit CHILD HAS tt( PERMISSION TO CRIVE A SCHOOL BUS IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY EVACUATION AT THE CATAWBA f, h Ptent. l i DATE SIGNATUPE CF PAPSUC4'APNM PARENT PLEASE KEEP TOP COPY FOR WUR RECORDS AND RETLRN BOTTOM

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A,PPENDIX E FORT MILL SCHOOL DISTRICT 4 DRAFT EVACUATION PLAN 6 L e 1

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 .       o Evacuation Plan Fort Mill School Di strict # 4 operates 23 buses on regular routes. In addition, we norma 11y have two spare buses and one mini bus.
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Of the regular route buses, eight are classed as 60 passenger buses and 15 are rated at 54 passenger. The mini bus is rated for 16 passengers. , i i For the purpose of an emergency evacuation, the f ollowing assumptions are I made. ,

                                                                                                  )

1. 60 passenger buses can carry 75 students.

2. 54 passenger buses can carry 67 students. 1

3. Evacuation calculations will not be based on using spare buses since they may not be available. The CDC bus will be considered  :

as unavailable. The mini bus will be considered unavailable. l I 4 District activity buses will be considered unavailable. This will I give us the worst possible situation. The number of students moved per unit of time will improve if any of the buses considered l unavailable become available. Under the worst possible situation, the 1,275 ntudents f rom Riverview  ; Complex and the 250 students from Campus II of tho middle school can be I moved at one time. It is estimated that no more than one half of the  ! high school students would require bus transportation. Private vehicles can carry 450-50C students to Indian Land. The 550 students at Campus I j of the Middle School and the balance (400) of the high school students would be picked up in the second load. The 54 passenger buses would be  :

   . used for this second load since they require less f uel and could possibly               I make the second trip' without refueling.                                                 -

The eight 60 pasconger buses would be available to the County Transportation p d Supervisor after the first load. The remaining fourteen 54 passenger buses ' would be available after the second load. H 5 All evacuation from Fort Mill would travel along D=by 's Bri dge Road to Indian Land. Students in grades K-5 will be taken to Indian Land Elementary School. Students in grades 6-12 will go to Indian Land School. l y As discussed, assistance from l aw enf orcement will be required to cross i Hwy. 521 to the elementary school. The Superintendent of Indian Land Schools will dismiss his students wnen the i evaccation order is given. He will retain as much of his staff as possible " to assist with supervision of Fort Mill studen ts. - Fort Mill will place one adult on each bus to. supervise students in route. The. balance of the available staff will be sent to Indian Land in their private vehicles. d i

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                                            't Lancaster County Bus Maintenance Shop will provide for refueling either at Indian Land or at Fort Mill High School, depending on gas schedule, day of week, and time of day.

It is understood proximity to the that EPZ. Indian Land can not serve as a shelter because of This location will remain open for approximately four hours after the arrival of the first evacuees to allow parents to pick-up their stucents. When this location closes, remaining students will be transported by Disaster Prepardness to a satisfactory shelter. (Where?) A more precise time schedule will be worked out for transportation considering of this plan.vari ables f er gassing and time of day pending the acceptability [ l

EPC 14/15 KULASH ATTACHMENT D _ Assumptions Underlying Departure Times for Evacuation of the Catawba Nuclear Station Emergency Planning Zone Prepared for: Duke Power Company 'l Prepared by: PRC Engineering 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 December 1983 l

1 l Assumptions Underlying Departure Times for Evacuation of the CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE Prepared for: Duke Power Company 1 Prepared by: PRC Engineering 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22101 l December 1983

a . TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Exhibits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . til _ Chapter I GENERAL METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING DEPARTURE TIMES . . . . . . . 1 introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Population Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Departure Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Evacuation Steps: Permanent Resident Population (Vehicle-Owning) . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Evacuation of Permanent Resident Populstion (Non-Vehicle-Owning) . . . . . . . . . 6 Evacuation of Transient Population . . . . . . . 7 Evacuation of Special Facility Population (Schools) . . 3 Evacuation of Special Facility Population (Institutions) 8

          !!     DERIVATION OF TIME DISTRIBUTIONS FOR DEPARTURE STEPS                      .     .    .    .     .     .    .    .    .      10 Permanent Resident Population                  .    .    .    .      .    .    .    .-    10 Permanent Resident Population (Non-Vehicle-Owning)                                  . 19 Transient Population         .      .    .     .    .    .    .      .    .    .    . 21 School Population     .      .      ..         .    .    .    .      .    .    .    . 25 Institutional Population            .    .     .    .    .    .      .    .    .    . 25 t

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a . . LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit Page 1 Population Segments and Evacuation Sequences . . . . . 3 2 Derivation of Times for " Leave Place of Work" Step . . . 12 3 Derivation of " Prepare for Evacuating Home" for Vehicle-Owning Households .

                                                                                                                    ..   . .  .  .  .   . 14 4     Possible Levels of Traffic Congestion                                                                 .   . .  .  .  .  . IS 5     Derivation of " Prepare for Evacuating Home" for Non-Vehicle-Owning Households                                                                  .   . .  .  .  .   . 14 6     Derivation of Times for " Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses" Step                                                               .   .   .  .   . .  .  .  .  . 22 7      Derivation of Times for " Evacuate School Population in Buses" Step    .                         .                            .              .   .   .  .   . .  .  .  .  . 26 8      Derivation of Tiines for " Evacuate Institutional Population in Buses and Special Vehicles" Step                                                              .  .  .  . 23 e

111 ~

I. GENERAL METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING DEPARTURE TIMES INTRODUCTION l As suggested by Appendix 4 of NUREG 0654, the estimate of time required for preparing to evacuate is based on estimating the time distributions for a series of discrete steps which comprise the preparation process. This approach involves the following procedures: o Pre-evacuation activities on the part of EPZ population are cate-gorized into a series of discrete steps. e A time distribution is calculated for each activity step. This distribution defines the rate at which the EPZ population completes the individual step. e The time required for the completion of ALL of the steps by ALL of the population is derived by combining the individual distributions in a statistically correct manner. POPULATION GROUPS Separate departure time estimates are made for each of the major components of population in the Catawba EPZ: . e Permanent Resloent Population - Those persons living full time in the Catawba EPZ. Two subgroups of permanent resident population are recognized: , Vehicle-Owning Population - Those permanent residents having a vehicle available for their evacuation from the EPZ. Non-Vehicle-Owning Population - Those permanent residents not having a vehicle available for their evacuation from the

                                     ~ Catawba EPZ and who, therefore, must be transported by other means.

e Transient Population - Non-residents of the EPZ, temporarily within it, primarily for the purpcses of recreation or work. ' e Special Facility Population - Concentrations of population in loca-tions other than households. Two subgroups of special facility - population are identified: Population in Schools - All students in schools, colleges, or any other educationalinstitution at the time of evacuation. 1 i r

s . i Institutional Population - All population in non-school insti-tutions (hospitals, nursing homes, day care centers, prison) at the time of evacuation. I DEPARTURE STEPS Exhibit I surnmarizes the departure steps for the various categories of EPZ population. The definition of the steps is patterned on the directions given in Appendix 4 to NUREG 0654. Additional steps were designated for population subgroups not originally envisioned in Appendix 4 to NUREG 0654 Departure steps are somewhat dependent on time of day, day of week, and season of year. Consequently, some do not apply at all times. However, for the critical time period (the fall / winter weekday period for which preparation times are at a maximum) all of the. evacuation steps designated in Exhibit I apply. EVACUATION STEPS: PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (VEHICLE-OWNING) Receive Notification The first activity in the evacuation process is the notification of the public that an emergency exists. This includes the sounding of sirens, followed by Emergency Broadcast Optem (EBS) information, and some direct notification by NOAA radio alert. Various other back-up measures are used to inform the population which might not be reached by the above means. Mobile sirens and public address units will supplement the siren alerting system. Mobile public address units mounted on boats or aircraft will notify beaters on Lake Wylie. l This notification alerts the public that an emergency exists, and that they should t f tune in to radio and television broadcasts for further information. The notifica-tion, by itself, does not inform the public of the nature of the emergency nor of the response that they should make. 2 E. - --

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1 Information on the nature of the emergency and instructions on evacuation are given through radio and television broadcasts over cooperating local stations in the Emergency Broadcast System (EBS). Leave Place of Work The rate at which area workers will leave their jobs to return home to prepare for evacuation depends on the particular work environment and upon the responsibility level of the worker. It is to be expected that most of the work force will be able to leave their jobs almost immediately, quite similar to a normal departure from worli at the end of the workday. A number of workers, however, will require some job "close-down" time in work situations; for example, those that involve chemical processes, construction equlpment, or cash registers in retall sales establishments. Supervisory employees, managers, and independent business operators will generally require the greatest amount of time to secure their place of work and to assure that all employees and others on the premises have departed. Work-to-Home Travel Travel of the employees from their place of work to home is identical to the daily work-to-home travel pattern. The maximum length for work trips for people living and working in the EPZ is not likely to exceed 13 miles. This movement of workers, because of the short time over which it occurs, can be expected to cause some traffic congestion similar to that occurring during the twice-daily work travel peak. The road system can handle this volume of traffic i with essentially the same level of service as during the peak hours on a typical working day. Prepare for Evacuating Home People can be expected to react differently to any emergency situation, and there are likely to be great differences in the amount of time that residents will spend in 4

i preparing to leave their homes. Three factors, in particular, affect the amount of time needed to prepare for evacuating a household: e Whether or not adults are at home when notice to evacuate is received. If so, preparation time is shortened (compared to house-holds where no adults are at home) since preparation for evacuation can begin before workers arrive home. 4 e ' Number of children and other dependents at home who increase the time needed to prepare the household for evacuation. e The amount of property to be secured. Farms are the extreme case and may require up to one and one-half hours to secure. On the other hand, small households can be prepared for evacuation in minutes. Travel Out of the EPZ After households are secure, residents of vehicle-owning households will drive out of the EPZ. Most motorists will use the most direct route available. Public agencies will give routing advice for this. travel, by means of preparedness plans prior to the emergency and through information broadcasts during the actual evacuation. Law enforcement officers wi!! also channel flow of traffic at critical locations, as defined in local preparedness plans and in response to actual conditions. The vehicle-owning resident population will drive to reception centers established outside the EPZ where they will be checked for contamination and reunited with other family members. Evacuees will then either go to a shelter, where they will be lodged temporarily, or to other destinations .(homes of friends or relatives) of ' their own choosin6+

         . During the evacuation, normal traffic operations will prevail. Specifically, roads will continue in two-way operation, traffic signals will continue to function, and so forth. At key locations, mainly intersections, traffic control will be under direction of law enforcement officers or other personnel as designated by local

. evacuation plans.

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On most roads, traf fic will flow freely, although at reduced speeds. However, at certain locations and during certain protions of the evacuation period, traf fic congestion is expected. EVACUATION OF PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (NON-VEHICLE-OWNINC) Receive Notification The procedure for receiving broadcast information is the same as for vehicle-owning population (above). This includes the sounding of strens followed by broadcast information and supplemented by mobile public address. Prepare for Evacuating Home This step is the same as for vehicle-owning population (above). As in the case of vehicle-owning population, primary factors in the time required for this action are whether or not an adult is home at the time of notification, the number of dependents to be evacuated, and the extent of property to be secured. Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses A significant fraction of the non-vehicle owning population (perhaps as much as 30 percent) will be evacuated as passengers in private vehicles driven by family, neighbors, or friends. This component of the non-vehicle-owning population is considered as part of the vehicle-owning population, and their evacuation pro-cedure follows that of the vehicle-owning population described above. Persons from non-vehicle-owning households, who do not evacuate as passengers in private vehicles, will be transported out of the EPZ in vehicles dispatched by the County preparedness agencies. , 6 L.

In York County, South Carolina and Gaston County, North Carolina, the primary source of vehicles are school buses. Transit buses from Charlotte will be the primary source of vehicles in Mecklenburg County. EVACUATION OF TRANSIENT POPULATION Receive Notification Most of the industrial transient population will be notified by tone alert receivers, telephone calls, and the siren system. Transient recreational visitors around Lake Wylie are notified by the siren system. Some boaters on the lake will be notified by mobile public address systems. Assemble Traveling Group The traveling group (usually family) is assembled. Preparations for evacuating (for example, closing a cabin, docking a boat) are made. Travel Out of the EPZ After assembling their traveling group the transient population will drive out of the EPZ using their private vehicles. Transient population will be directed to a reception center. After clearing the reception center, they will return to their homes outside the EPZ. Public agencies will give routing advice for this travel through information broadcasts during the evacuation. Law enforcement officers will also. direct traffic flows out of the EPZ. Unescorted children at Carowinds Theme Park will be taken by bus to a reception center in Mecklenburg County where they will be screened for radiological contamination and reunited with their parents. 7

EVACUATION OF SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (SCHOOLS) Receive Notification Following the decision to evacuate, the counties notify schools directly of the need for evacuation. This is done through the siren system, tone alerts, and telephone calls directly to the schools. Evacuate School Population in Buses The school population is transported directly by bus from school to reception centers. An entire school will be transported to the same reception center. School children will not return home prior to evacuation. The picking up of school children at school by their families is discouraged. All buses normally used within the Catawba EPZ will be used for evacuation. These will be supplemented by buses from outside the EPZ, but within the three-county area. EVACUATION OF SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (INSTITUTIONS) Receive Notificatim Following the decision to evacuate, the local preparedness agencies will notify i institutions directly by telephone calls. Mobilize Population The institutional population is instructed to evacuate by the staff of that particular institution. Necessary personal effects are assembled. Essential medical records 4 are gathered. 2 i t 1

Evacuate Institutional Population in Buses or Special Vehicles Buses will pick up ambulatory hospital patients, nursing home residents, and other persons not requiring ambulance transportation. These passengers will be trans-ported directly to the alternate relocation fa,cilities. Non-ambulatory persons will be transported directly from institutions by emer-gency vehicles normally based within the EP2, supplemented by emergency vehicles from outside the EPZ. 9

II. DERIVATION OF TIME DISTRIBUTIONS FOR DEPARTURE STEPS PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION Receive Notification . 9 The time distribution for the " Receive Notification" step is predicated on: e Meeting the requirements of NUREG 0654 for notification of virtually 100 percent of the EPZ population within 45 minutes af ter the start of notification i e A siren system meeting all the requirements of warning systems as set forth in NUREG 0654, and with at least an 80 percent reliability factor o " Feedback" to indicate where siren failure occurs and procedures for backup notification in areas affected by siren failure e Effective EBS messages in conjunction with the siren alerting system The time distribution projected for notification of the Catawba EPZ has been further confirmed through analysis of an alerting simulation model(developed after - the original projections were made). The model confirms that a properly functioning siren and backup system will yield a notification time distribution consistently better (i.e., requiring less time for ~ most of the population) than originally projected. Leave Place of Work The projected time distribution for leaving place of work is based on the following stipulations: e Employees will not abandon work places precipitously but, rather, will close down as rapidly as possible in an orderly and controlled manner. This is in contrast to the immediate and uncontrolled departure from -work places that would characterize a more immediate emergency, such as a fire or explosion. [ i 10

e Customers and other visitors on the premises will be notified in accordance with the establishment's procedure for emergency closing. These procedures typically allow for a 5-to-10 minute period for completion of business. e Managerial personnel will remain until workers and other visitors have cleared the premises. e Close-down procedures necessary for safety or security will be performed as usual. Other normal closing activities (for example, cleaning) will be suspended. e Departure time from the premises is predicated on normal walking speeds. e Internal notification (within the premises) is comparable to that which would be exercised in a more immediate emergency (for example, fire). This level of alerting, dictated by existing codes and insurance ratings, assures the notification of 100 percent of building occupants within five minutes of receipt of notification from the public alerting system in the EPZ. e Departure times will reflect the level of the responsibility of the individual employee, as outlined in Exhibit 2. Work-to-Home Travel Work-to-home travel times are based on standardized trip length frequency distributions (TLFD's), as developed from home interview surveys throughout United States urban areas of all sizes. These distributions have proven to be predictable and stable for comparably sized areas and are an accepted feature of quick-response travel estimation procedures. A maximum travel time of 20 minutes is adopted for a worker with both residence and work place within the EPZ. This travel time corresponds tu a distance of over 13 miles and, in light of the population distribution in the EPZ, represents a reasonable upper bound for work trips fully contained in the EPZ. , Work-to-home travel times incorporate a traffic level of service comparable.to that occurring daily during the a.m. and p.m. peak traffic hours. These travel speeds, associated with Level of Service "C" as defined in the 1965 Highway 11 j i l

EXHIBIT 2. DERIVATION OF TIMES FOR

                                    " LEAVE PLACE OF WORK" STEP l

Maximum Time Work Force Percent of for Leaving Component Work Force Place of Work i (1) Nonmanagement 50 10 minutes (2) First Line Supervision 30 15 minutes (3) Middle Management 10 20 minutes (4) Special (security, 10 30-45 minutes proprietor, etc.) f .l U 1 r t i , 12

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i Capacity Manual are 45 miles per hour for rural highways and 22 miles per hour in i ur'banized areas. f Prepare for Evacuatina Home The time needed to prepare for evacuating the home varies with three factors: (1) whether or not an adult member of the household is home at the time of notification, (2) whether or not there are dependents in the household and, (3) the

 ,          amount of household property to be secured prior to evacua. tion.

J-Exhibit 3 shows the possible combination of factors that determine the time needed for preparation to evacuate the home. Exhibit 3 Identifies the UPPER bound of the time distribution for each population segment of the household populations; i.e., the times required for all households of given characteristics to prepare for i evacuation. i The times for each population segment are derived through time end motion analysis procedures, using standardized components of activity (for example, " Load Vehicle," " Lock House," etc.). A factor of '150 percent was then applied to computed times to reflect "over-preparation"; that is, preparation measures in excess of those instructed by the EBS broadcasts or by other information in possession of the household. 6 Travel Out of the EPZ Two distinct conditions can prevail with respect to travel out of the EP : l e No Traffic Congestion - On evacuation routes'with no traffic con-gestion, a maximum of 15 minutes is needed to drive out of the EPI. This figure is based on a maximum straight-line evacuation travel distance of 11 miles, a circuity factor of 1.1, and an average travel-speed of 50 mph. This maximum time reflects a departure from the immediate vicinity of the plant, and with almost all of the evacuation i

                          . travel accomplished on rural highways. Highway travel speeds reflect the free-flow conditions as defined by Level of Service "B" in l                           the 1965 Highway Capacity Manual.

13 t

Exhibit 3. Derivation of" Prepare for Evacuating Home" for Vehicle Owning Households ' Population Segment Characteristics Time Required for Preparation to Leave Home PROPERTY ' TO SECURE r 50 minutes DEPENDENTS AT HOME NO PROPERTY m TO SECURE - 25 minutes I ADULT i AT HOME i PROPERTY TO SECURE > 35 minutes NO DEPENDENTS AT HOME NO PROPERTY m TO SECURE - 15 minutes PROPERTY TO SECURE > 60 95 minutes DEPENDENTS AT HOME NO PROPERTY TO SECURE > 30 minutes NO ADULT AT HOME PROPERTY m TO SECURE 40 enutes NO DEPENDENTS AT HOME TO SECURE 20 minutes i 14

4 Evacuation, under free-flow conditions from any of the built-up areas within the EPZ, requires less than .the maximum of 15 minutes described above. For example, evacuation from the northwest sector

                                  .of Rock Hill, requiring a routing through continuously urbanized                       I areas, will require 12 minutes, based on a straight-line travel                       l distance of 4 miles, circulty factor of 1.2, and 25 mph average speed                 '

(reflecting the free-flow condition for urban arterial streets) associated with 1.evel of Service "B" in the 1965 Highway Capacity 1 Manual. e With Travel Congestion - On evacuation routes with travel con-gestion, travel times are not determined by the free-flow travel speeds (above) but, rather, by the extent of the congestion incurred on the route. This congestion is identified and analyzed through the use of the QUEUE model, a computerized analytical technique which j simulates the flow of traffic through the evacuation routes. The OUEUE Model for Simulating Traffic Connestion - The QUEUE begins with the evacuation road network (that is, the system of roads available for evacuation) and the distribution of population onto this network. The QUEUE model then simulates the traffic flow through the evacuation road network. This simulation is j iterative; that is, it is repeated for small increments of time. Consequently, the status of traffic congestion is calculated at each time interval, and the dynamic aspects of traffic flow and congestion can be traced. Inputs to the QUEUE program are:

     . .               e          Road network used for evacuation. This includes the major evacua-tion routes, branches to these routes (evacuation subroutes), and points at which the population enters the evacuation route system (loading points).

! e Departure curve for the risk area population, which gives the rate at t which the population enters the road system. i e Traffic flow parameters to reflect the capacity of the roads in the relocation network. ( The evacuation route network within the EPZ is coded into a form needed for entry into the QUEUE program. This coding process consists of: e Designating the major evacuation routes. The number of such routes j depends on the specific corridor being considered; typically, there are two to five major evacuation routes in any given corridor, i i t 15 i l

                 = ..         .                                           . .                 .

l e Designating the subroutes; that is, the roads that feed traffic onto the major evacuation routes. The number of subroutes also depends on the specific corridor being considered; typically, there are two to four subroutes for each major relocation route. e Establishing the loading points, locations at which relocation traffic is assumed to be generated and at which it enters the relocation road i system. Loading point are an abstraction of the actual road system, representing concentrations of households, work places, etc. Typically, a total of 10 to 15 loading points is established for each of i the major evacuation routes. 3 The QUEUE program calculates, for each interval, the arrival and departure of traffic at all locations throughout the evacuation road system. Arrival rates of traffic are determined by: e The departure rate which establishes for all evacuation routes the rate at which traffic enters (or attempts to enter) the evacuation road system e The loading of traffic onto the individual evacuation routes. This loading is made on the basis of population concentrations, and special activity centers. The rate of discharge of traffic-throegh intersections is determined by: e The available lanes of roadway e The traffic flow rate, typically 1,200 vehicles per hour on each

'                        departure lane for surface roads, and 1,800 per lane on freeways.

Traffic flow rates can be adjusted to reflect adverse conditions or other obstacles to free traffic flow. Traffic queues at any given location are discharged at a rate proportional to their. l- magnitude; i.e., the longer a queue the greater its priority at the intersection where the queue originates. . This algorithm simulates the traffic control that would be achieved by a competent traffic control officer on duty at such locations. i The QUEUE program identifies locations at which^ congestion occurs and calculates the extent of such congestion. Measures which are computed include the length - (time) of the period 'over which congestion. persists at particular locations, the

      . maxi mum delay experienced by a vehicle passing through any congested location, and the extent (distance) of congestion on the relocation road network.
               ,                                    16 f'

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Possible Levels of Traffic Congestion - Three possible conditions of traffic congestion are analyzed in Exhibit 4. In the instance with r}o traffic congestion, (Type "A" in Exhibit 4), the departure from the EPZ depends solely on the rate at which people prepare to leave their housholds and drive, in a free-flow manner, out of the EPZ. At no point in the evacuation period does traffic congestion slow this progress out of the EPZ. Seven routes out of the Catawba EPZ have this pattern of traffic flows. On routes where traffic congeston occurs (Type "B" and "C" in Exhibit 4), traffic congestion appears when the rate of vehicles entering the street exceeds the capability of the street to carry them. Congestion continues to build as long as the rate of vehicles entering the street system continues to exceed the vehicular capacity of the evacuation route. At some point in the evacuation process, the rate at which vehicles enter the street system reaches a maximum and begins to decrease. Congestion begins to diminish as the rate of vehicles entering the street system begins to fall below the capacity of the evacuation route to carry them. This decrease in traffic congestion continues until the queues disappear and free traffic flow is restored on the evacuation route. In less severe instances of congestion (Type "B"in Exhibit 4), this occurs before the population has finished preparations to leave home. From the point at which congestion ends until the completion of evacuation, the rate of evacuation is once again determined by the rate at which households complete their preparation to leave home and enter the street system. Eight routes out of the Catawba EPZ have this traffic pattern. In the more severe instances of congestion (Type "C" in Exhibit 4), the traffic backups continue even af ter all the population has completed preparations to leave home. In this type of congestion, the backups are too large to be discharged before

                                                                     ~

all population has completed preparations to leave home. In this case, evacuation times are no longer dictated by the time at which preparations for leaving home 17

Exhibit 4. Possible Levels of Traffic Congestion A. FREE TRAFFIC FLOW, NO CONGESTION e Out 8 r of EPZ

    -        Prepare to g -Leave Home '
    '                                  b Evacuation Rate 3                                        Determined by 5                f                         Free Flow a

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                    /          [f             Driving Time Time                             >

B. CONGESTION OCCURS AND ENDS BEFORE ALL POPULATION LEAVES HOME

                                        ,#                 Free Flow 8    - Prepare to       -.        ,                    Restored

• j Leave Home
• A 3

[ #" ' acuation Ev Determined by Rate f ,# v Road Capacity - j p e a e E A Free Flow Ends Congestion

• Period C. CONGESTION CONTINUES AFTER ALL POPULATION LEAVES HOME c '=

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    '                                          Evacuatior. Rate I                           f a      2         Determined by j                         g                 Road Capacity "

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                            + Congestion Period +

13 l

are completed but, rather, by the traffic capacity of the evacuation route. Three routes out of the Catawba EPZ have this traffic pattern. PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (NON-VEHICLE-OWNING) Receive Notification The derivation of the time distribution of the " Receive Notification" step is described previously for the " Permanent Resident Population (Vehicle Owning)" segment of EPZ population. Prepare for Evacuating Home The time needed to prepare for evacuating the home varies with three factors: (1) whether or not an adult member of the household is home at the time of notification, (2) whether or not there are dependents in the household and, (J) the amount of household property to be secured prior to evacuation. Exhibit 5 shows the possible combinations of factors that determine the time needed to evacuate the home. Exhibit $ identifies the UPPER limit of the time distribution for each type of household; that is, the times required for ALL of the households of given characteristics to prepare for evacuation. The times for each population segment are derived through time and - motion analysis procedures using standardized components of activity (for example, " Lock House," etc.). A factor of 150 percent was applied to the raw computed times to reflect "over-preparation"; that is, preparation measures in excess of those instructed by EBS broadcasts or by other information in possession of the households. In general, "Non-Vehicle-Owning" households require less time to prepare for evacuation than do " Vehicle-Owning" households. This reflects: e Less activity on the part of non-vehicle-owning households; for example, such households have no vehicle to load i 19

4 a Exhibit 5. Derivation of"Pret,ars for Evacuating Home" for Vehicle Owning Households Population Segment Chaiscteristics Time Required for Preparation to Leave Home' i PROPERTY TO SECURE > 45 minutes DEPENDENTS AT HOME NO PROPERTY '

                                                                              ^     25 minutes TO SECURE ADULT AT HOME PROPERTY TO SECURE           > 35 minutes NO DEPENDENTS AT HOME NO PROPERTY          m TO SECURE           -     15 minutes PROPERTY TO SECURE           > 45 minutes DEPENDENTS AT HOME
                                      .                  NO PROPERTY TO SECURE           > 30 minutes NO ADULT AT HOME PROPERTY           m TO SECURE
                                                                              ^        *""**

NO DEPENDENTS AT HOME NO PROPERTY m TO SECURE - 20 minutes 20

                                 , \.
                                          ,                                 i
                                         ,[1          _,       _, .

r y > e Less property to be secured by non-vehicle-owning households, in

comparison to vehicle-owning households Assemble at Collection Points

             ,                  A maximum walking distance of one mile from any non-vehicle-owning household
                                                                                        ~ '

to the nearest collection point is stipulated. At a walking speed of 3 feet per second, this yields a maximum access time of 30 minutes. Another 20 minutes spent waiting for the tus gives a total of up to -50 minutes for this step. A minimum access time of 10 minutes is based on the evacuees residing very close to a collection paint and having only a 10 minute wait for the pickup. The distribution of access (i.e., walking and waiting) times for all non-vehicle-4 owning households is arrayed evenly between the maximum and minimum points as

                                                                                               ~

defined above. Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses The process $f trgnsporting non-vehicle.-owning population from assembly points in , buses is defined by four separate steps (Exhibit 6). Minimum and maximum times

;                              are stipulated for each step as indic'ated in Exhibit 6.

j Total Evacuation Times for Non-VNhicle-Owning Population The~ time required for the evacdation of all non-vehicle-owning population is t

            .                  determined by combining:the distributions for the individual steps. Critical path analysis is used to analyze the impact of overlapping activities.

4 TRANSIENT POPULATION x s F Receive Notifidat n ~ e The derivation of the time distribu' tion for'this step is described previously for the

                               " Permanent Resident Population (Vehicle-Owning)" segment of the EPZ population.
             .'                                                          / ' Y' e                                       '-

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I EXHIBIT 6. DERIVATION OF TIMES FOR " EVACUATE NON-VEHICLE-OWNING POPULATION IN BUSES" STEP Time Required for Activity Activity Minimum Maximum (1) Notify bus system operators, 10 minutes 20 minutes (public and private) (2) Drive buses into EPZ 30 minutes (15 miles 50 minutes (18 miles

                                          @ 30 miles per hour)    @ 22 miles per hour)

(3) Boarding runs 10 minutes (single 30 minutes (three stop) stops) !' (fe) Drive out of EPZ 20 minutes (7 miles (35 minutes (13 miles

                                          @ 22 miles per hour)   @ 22 miles per hour)

TOTAL 1 hour,10 minutes 2 hours,15 minutes 4 22

                                   +

u Assemble Traveling Group For the most part, transient travel groups are families engaged in social /recrea-tional activities. A' minimum assembly time of .10 minutes and a maximum

 ,              assembly time of 30 minutes is stipulated for the assemblage of transient travel groups. Basis of these times are projections by recreation facility operators (public and private).
                , Travel Out of the EPZ A minimum travel time of 15 minutes and a maximum travel time of 30 minutes is stipulated for travel out of the EPZ by transient population. These travel times are based on free-flow travel conditions, corresponding to Level of Service "B" in the 1965 H:nhway Capacity Manual; specifically, 50 miles per hour on rural highways and 22 miles per hour in urban areas. Free-flow conditions are stipulated because transient evacuation occurs well before the evacuation of permanent
             ' population and is completed before the appearance of traffic congestion resulting from the evacuation of permanent resident population.

Cerovinds Park and the PTL Campground Most of the transients at Carowinds -Park consist of families and other groups having their own transportation. For -those people, notif::atiort time would be neglegible because Carowinds would be notified directly by the local authorities as - soon as a decision to evaucate was made. Carowinds'would then use its public address system to immediately notify all park employees and visitors. The next step is getting the visitors out of the park and into their cars. Carowinds management states that .this normally takes '20 minutes to- I hour, but for. a capacity crowd it would require 2 hours to 2 hours and 30 minutes. The third step is driving out of the parking'iot. Careful study of the exits from the parking lot and the capacity of the connecting roads revealed that in an emergency i a ,

                                                       '23
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the lot could be cleared in I hour and 35 minutes even when filled to capacity. This estimate is based on a parking lot capacity (including grassy areas used for overflow) of 5,600 vehicles, three lanes of exiting traffic, and the presence of police traffic control. Thus, even with a capacity crowd, the lot would be cleared before the last visitors departed the park to the lot. The final step for the Carowinds visitors is to drive out of the area. Since Carowinds is 'very near the edge of the EPZ and is served by several main roads, the driving time of of the are would be negligible except for the effects of congestion. The traffic leaving Carowinds will be distributed among three roads leading out of the EPZ: 1-77, NC 49, and NC 51. The QUEUE model results discussed earlier indicate that congestion would be negligible on NC 51 and wou!d dissipate on the other two routes within 2 hours of the start of evacuation. There-fore, the first people leaving Carowinds may experience some delay in driving out of the EPZ, bus visitors leaving at least two hours af ter the start of evacuation should require no more than 15 minutes to get across the EPZ boundary. Thus, the time to evacuate the groups with transportation from Carowinds would be determined primarily by the time to clear the park and would in no case exceed . 2 hours and 45 minutes. A smaller portion of the Carowinds visitors would be people without transportation, primarily unescorted children dropped off earlier in the day by their parents. These people will be picked up by bus and taken to a reception center just as the institutional special facility population. The discussion of the bus evacuation of the institutional population also applies to these earless Carowinds evacuees. Evacuation of the PTL campground is not a problem in the opinion of the campground management. Everyone coming onto the property has his own transportation, and campground personnel are prepared to quickly notify campers and other visitors if evacuation is called for. Local officials will directly notify the campground management as soon as a decision to evacuate the area is made. Based on a maximum notification time of 30 minutes and a maximum time of 45 24

minutes to pack up and drive off the PTL property, the PTL visitors should be en route out of the EPZ at about the same time as most of the EPZ residents. SCHOOL POPULATION Receive Notification The direct notification of schools by radio and telephone will yield a minimum notification time of 10 minutes and a maximum notification time of 25 minutes. These times are compiled on the basis of time and motion analysis procedures for a series of individual actions, on the part of school staff, for the notification of school population. Evacuate School Population in Buses The process of transporting students out of the EPZ in school buses is defined by four separate steps (Exhibit 7). Minimum and maximum times are stipulated for each step. Total Evacuation Times for School Population The time required for the evacuation of all school population is determined by combining the distributions for individual steps. Critical path analysis is used to analyze the impact of overlapping activities. INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION Receive Notification The derivation of the time distribution for this step is described previously for the

     " Permanent Resident Population (Vehicle Owning)" segment of the EPZ population.

25

I EXHIBIT 7. DERIVATION OF TIMES FOR " EVACUATE SCHOOL POPULATION IN BUSES" STEP Time Required for Activity Activity Minimum Maximum (1) Mobilize on-site buses 10 minutes (Not relevant; in maximum case, no buses are on premises) (2) Load buses 5 minutes 10 minutes (3) Drive buses to school (Not relevant; in 50 minutes (18 miles minimum case, buses @ 22 miles per hour) are already at school) (4) Drive out of EPZ 20 minutes (7 miles 35 minutes (13 miles

                                           @ 22 miles per hour)      @ 22 miles per hour)

TOTAL 35 minutes I hour,35 minutes i 26 t'

Mobilize Population Minimum and maximum times are based on estimates furnished by operators of nursing homes, hospitals, and correctional institutions. A maximum mobilization time of 30 minutes is projected; preparation times in excess of 30 minutes are construed as an indication of non-compliance with evacuation orders. This is supported by the fact that mobilization times for more immediate emergencies (for example, fire) are required by code, regulations, and institutional policies to be no greater than five to ten minutes. Evacuate Institutional Population in Buses and Special Vehiclas The process of transporting the institutional population out of the.EPZ by bus is defined by four separate steps (Exhibit 8). Minimum and maximum times are stipulated for each step. j In a similar manner, the process for transporting the institutionai population out of , the EPZ in special vehicles is defined by seven steps (Exhibit 8). Minimum and maximum times for each step are stipulated. I l ) I I 27

J 4 EXHIBIT 8. DERIVATION OF TIMES FOR " EVACUATE INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION IN BUSES AND SPECIAL VEHICLES" STEP Time Recuired for Activity t Activity - Minimum Maximum BUS SEOUENCE l (1) Notify bus system o 10 minutes 20 minutes t (public and private) perators, i (2) Drive bus'into EPZ 30 minutes (15 miles 50 minutes (13 miles j @ 30 miles per hour @ 22 miles per hour) (3) Board buses 10 minutes 15 minutes (4) Drive out of EPZ 20 minutes (7 miles 35 minutes (13 miles

                                                                       @ 22 miles per hour)          @ 22 miles per hour) i TOTALS                                                I hour,10 minutes             2 hours, O minutes l                 SPECIAL VEHICLE SEOUENCE i                 (1)        Notify special vehicles                   5 minutes                      10 minutes (ambulance, rescue vehicles)

(2) Drive into EPZ 25 minutes (12 miles 40 minutes (20 miles

                                                                      @ 30 miles per hour)           at 30 miles per hour)

( (3) Load vehicles . 5 minutes 10 minutes ' (4) Drive te reception 25 minutes (9 miles 30 minutes (11 miles center @ 22 miles per hour)' @ 22 miles per hour) (5) Return to EPZ 25 minutes (9 miles 30 minutes'(ll miles

                                                                      @ 22 miles per hour)           @ 22 miles per hour)

, (6) Load vehicles 5 minutes - 10 minutes (7) . Drive out of EPZ 25 minutes (9 miles 30 minutes (11 miles

                                                                     @ 22 miles per hour)            @ 22 miles per hour)

TOTAL 1 hour,55 minutes 2 hours,40 mintues i 28 t

             --       -   ,               . - , , ,.#w.      . . . , - .           . . . . . ,   , ,     ,        x     . -.- e

Properod for ' Duko Powor Company

                             -EPC 14/15 KULASH ATTACHMENT E                -

l i Catawba Nuclear Station Evacuation Analysis Evacuation Time Estimates for Carowinds and Heritage USA I l j PRC Engineering 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 March,1984

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 CAROWINDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 HERITAGE, USA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 l i { i I l >^ l

4 INTRODUCTION This report summarizes the results of detailed analysis of the evacuation of two major concentrations of transient population in the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the Catawba Nuclear Station in York County South Carolina. (1) Carowinds Park (2) Heritage, USA CAROWINDS PARK The Carowinds Park is located on Carowinds Boulevard, just west of I-77. Immediate access from the park is on to Carowinds Boulevard. At peak attendance, it is estimated that two hours would be needed to get visitors

from the park to the parking lot. The procedure would be the same one followed for a normal closing, which takes between 20 minutes and one hour with a normal size crowd. This time estimate does not include time for giving free passes for a return visit. If the situation allows time for pass distribution, they would most likely be distributed on the exit roads as people are driving out, not at the park gate.

The main parking lot and adjacent grassy areas will hold about 5,600 cars, the equivalent of four and two-thirds lane hours. Two lanes are normally used for exiting the lot, so about two hours and twenty minutes would be required to empty the lot when full. Two additional lanes may be pressed into service to shorten this time. One leads from the main lot to Carowinds Boulevard, intersecting Carowinds Boulevard at a point about 0.2 mile northwest of the main entrance. A hairpin turn would be required to get onto it directly from the main parking lot. If one of these lanes were used as a third exit lane, the time to clear the parking lot would drop to about I hour and 35 minutes. 1 i

The time to clear the parking lot depends on the capacity of the road system , outside the park to accommodate the two, three, or four lanes of traffic leading from the main parking lot. It appears that the roads could only accommodate three

lanes of traffic, so there would be no point in using a fourth lane to exit the i parking lot. The three lanes away from the park would be as follows

1. Northwest on Carowinds Boulevard to NC 49, then north on NC 49

3. Southeast on Carowinds Boulevard to I-77 southbound Carowinds evacuees traveling southeast on Carowinds Boulevard could leave the EPZ via I-77, going either north or south. The northern route is sho-ter, but presumably numerous Carowinds visitors from South Carolina will want to head toward their homes rather than toward North Carolina. (Even some EPZ residents j

may choose to go home and pack or pick up other family members before leaving the EPZ.) Drivers wishing to go north on I-77 will be permitted to use the ramp normally used by traffic coming north on U.S. 21, in addition to the ramp normally used by traffic from Carowinds. If there is no big crowd at Heritage, USA, Carowinds evacuees will also be permitted to proceed on US 21 beyond I-77. i (Otherwise, that route would be blocked to allow the Heritage, USA evacuees full i use of US 21 and NC 51.) i Since the flow out of the parking lot will start almost as soon as the Carowinds , staff begins directing people out of the park, it appears that the traffic congestion in the parking lot will have dissipated by the time the park itself is completely empty. (This assumes three lanes of traffic leaving the lot.) The expected time to l evacuate the park is, therefore, about two hours. Another fifteen minutes may be required for the Carowinds staff to leave. In total, then, the last person would ! leave Carowinds af ter about 2 hours and 15 minutes. i The foregoing estimate makes the important assumption that there will be firm - l traffic control on the roads near the park, so that there is minimal interference p between the lanes of traffic. The evacuation time would be longer if, for example, cars leaving Carowinds Boulevard 0.2 mile northwest of the main entrance were permitted to turn left and cut across the other two lanes of exiting traffic to get to l-77.

• 2

i

• Once outside the Park, evacuating traffic may encounter (and further contribute to) traffic congestion. However, there is adequate " excess" capacity on the three evacuation routes used by Carowinds traffic (I-77 NB, I-77 SB and NC 49 NB) to permit evacuation of all Carowinds traffic without extending the 4-hour evacua-tion time projected for the resident population of the EPZ.

Both I-77 north and N.C. 49 have evacuation times of 3 hours and 25 minutes for EPZ residents. Peak day Carowinds traffic might extend this to 4 hours if few of the Carowinds visitors go south on I-77. If at least a quarter of them use 1-77 south, however, the evacuation time on I-77 north and N.C. 49 would not be lengthened. HERITAGE, USA Heritage USA, a multi-use recreational / residential community, is located on US 21 about 3 miles south of its interchange with I-77 in York County, South Carolina. Detailed emergency plans prepared by Heritage staff deal with the management of evacuation traffic internal to the site. These plans call for the direction of all evacuating traffic on to US 21 at the main entrance to Heritage. Maximum vehicle population for Heritage is estimated at 2,400 vehicles. This

vehicle population occurs with virtual full use of all mr.rked parking spaces within Heritage. For special events, greater vehicle populations may be present on the grounds. However, because of the infrequent and non-recurring nature of these events, their evacuation estimates should be treated as special cases, and not be used as a guideline for evacuation times under normal operating conditions.

Once outside Heritage USA grounds, evacuating traffic will be directed onto two evacuation routes out of the EPZ. (1) US 21 southbound to SC 160, and then on SC 160 eastbound out of the EPZ (2) US 21 northbound to SC 74, and then eastbound on SC 74/NC 51 and out of the EPZ on either NC 51 or US 521. 1 3 _ - - , - m -~ , - s

Once outside Heritage USA, evacuating traffic may encounter (an'd further contribute to) tra.ffic congestion. However, there is adequate " excess" capacity on the two evacuation routes used by Heritage USA traffic (US 21/SC 160 and US 21/SC 74/NC 51) to permit evacuation of all Heritage traffic prior to the evacuation time of 3 hours, 25 minutes projected for resident population of the EPZ using these routes. It can be concluded, therefore, that Heritage USA evacuation will not delay the evacuation of EPZ residents beyond 3 hours, 25 minutes, nor will any Heritage USA visitor be longer than 3 hours, 25 minutes in clearing the EPZ (even if detained by traffic congestion outside Heritage). l [ i . I l

Prepared for

• M/ " """ n u~om r r

I, . Duko Power Company I - Catawba Nuclear Station I Evacuation Analysis i l f g- Transport-Dependent Population I

,I                                                                    .

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L PRC Engineering 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 April,1984 s

e 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS f Page INTRODUCTION.

                               .                    .                                . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 COMPONENTS OF THE TRANSPORT-DEPENDENT POPULATION .   .                     .                                . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 DAILY, WEEKLY, AND SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN TRANSPORT-DEPENDEIJT POPULATION . .                                                 . . . . . 2 MAGNITUDE OF THE TRANSPORT-DEPENDENT POPULATION.                                                 2 TRANSPORTATION RESOURCES REQUIRED                                                  . . . . . . 5 I

1 1 I l l L W q

f INTRODUCTJON !f l This paper identifies the categories and magnitudes of transport dependent population within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the Catawba Nuclear Station in York County, South Carolina. f Transport-dependent population is defined as population within the EPZ that would require government-provided transportation in the event of a radiological emer-gency at the Catawba Nuclear Station. The components of total population that are transport-dependent vary with time of day, day of week, and season. Conse-quently, the magnitude of transport dependent population will vary accordingly. COMPONENTS OF THE TRANSPORT-DEPENDENT POPULATION I Households that do not own vehicles are the primary source of transport-dependent population in the EPZ. Surveys indicate that most of the population from such households can depend on friends and relatives for transportation in emergecy situations. However, some residents of non-vehicle-owning households would have no means of transportation (except government-provided transportation) in the event of an emergency at the Catawba Nuclear Station. g People in vehicle-owning households may also be transport dependent if they are at

. L

' home when all the family vehicles are far away. We assume that if the family vehicles are all more than half an hour from home, there is a significant risk that the driver would not be able to return home in a timely manner to evacuate family members there. Most of these people would be evacuated by friends and relatives, but some would rely on government.

  ~

b Insitutional population consists of occupants of schools, nursing homes, hospitals, and prisons in. the EPZ. Only the hospital and nursing home occupants are considered to be transport-dependent because the schools and penal institutions have plans and adequate resources to evacuate their entire populations. (See separate report on school evacuation.) l t 1 i _ l l l

          .              m f          DAILY, WEEKLY, AND SE ASONAL VARIATIONS IN
       ~

TRANSPORT-DEPENDENT POPULATION p In non-vehicle-owning households, adults and preschool children are considered to

   ]          be transport dependent at all times (Exhibit 1). School students, while at school, are not transport dependent since their transportation out of the EPZ is assured by the school evacuation procedures. Outside school hours, school students are considered to be part of the transport-dependent population.

1 In vehicle-owning households with transport-dependent population, adults at home and preschool children are considered to be transport-dependent during work hours I (i.e., when the family vehicle is being used for travel to work). School-age population from such households is considered to be transport-dependent for that period of the day between dismissal from school and the end of normal work hours. Institutional population (nursing homes and hospitals) is considered to be transport-dependent at all times. ' 1 MAGNITUDE OF THE TRANSPORT-DEPENDENT POPULATION To determine the size and location of the population that would need government-provided transportation, Duke Power did the following: e Contacted the management of every hospital, nursing home, and penalinstitution in the EPZ to determine the number of evacuees. e Arranged for an independent market research firm to survey a sample of EPZ residents to determine the number .who would need govern- , ; ment help to evacuate. As mentioned earlier, the contact with penal institutions revealed that they were _ self-sufficient. Therefore, their populations are excluded from this analysis. The contacts with hospitals and nursing homes revealed that a maximum of 654

  ~

1 patients would have to be evacuated (see Exhibit 2). The management of those insitutions stated that if time permitted, many of their patients would be 2 1 1 L

EXHIBIT* 1. COMPONENTS OF THE TRANSPORT-DEPENDENT POPULATION Non-Work [ Hours Work Hours (Weekdays) 3 School in Session School Out Households Not Owning a Vehicle Adults X X X Preschool X X X School Age X X .I Households Owning Vehicles Adults X X Preschool X X School Age X , Hospitals and Nursing Homes X X X L L L W w 3 i L. .

l l

      .                                                               l EXHIBIT 2. HOSPITAL AND NURSING HOME POPULATIONS IN THE EPZ f

Facility Population Hospitals f Devine Savior Hospital Piedmont Medical Center 51 160 Total 211 1 Nursing Homes Anne's Convalescence Home 62 Bolin's Nursing Home 10

   ,          Divine Savior Home                              51 L          Fallaw Residential Care                         37 Meadow Haven Nursing Center                   132 I          Rock Hill Convalescence Center                141 Sunshine Homes                                  10 Total                                      443 L

use GBR 1

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                                                               \

discharged to evacuate with their families, so that the number requiring govern-f ment transportation might be less than 654.

        ~

The survey of EPZ households was conducted by telephone, except that households without telephones were surveyed face-to-face. The survey showed that between 2,800 and 3,800 people would need government transportation, depending on the season and time of day. Additional people would be at home without family cars, but they felt they could count on friends and relatives for emergency transporta-tion. As discussed earlier, the number of people at home needing government-provided transportation varies depending on whether schools and workplaces are operating.

    ;        The smallest number, 2,861, occurs when school is in session. Over 90 percent of those people are adults and preschoolers in households that do not own cars. The g        remainder are adults and preschoolers in households where the workers in the I       household have taken the family cars to jobs more than half an hour from home.

If school is not in session, the 2,861 adults and preschoolers are joined by 898 school children, bringing the total to 3,759. Outside of work hours, the car-owning households have their cars at home, so the total drops to 3,384. Exhibit 3

      ~

summarizes these results. t The survey also revealed that about 70 percent of the households needing govern-ment transportation live inside municipalities. Comparisons among municipalities showed no statistically significant difference among them regarding the fraction of people dependent on government transportation to evacuate. TRANSPORTATION RESOURCES REQUIRED The last line of Exhibit 3 is an estimate of the number of buses needed to evacuate c the people requiring government-provided transportation. The estimate is high 1 because some of the hospital and nursing home patients would be moved in ambulances or other special vehicles rather than in buses. Also, some of them 5 L

[. I EXHIBIT

• 3. PEOPLE REQUIRING BUS TRANSPORTATION TO EVACUATE Non-Work

[ Hours Work Hours (Weekdays) j School in Session School Out f Households Not Owning a Vehicle Adults 1,688 1,688 1,688 Preschool 975 975 975 School Age 722 0 722 Households Owning Vehicles Adults 0 til 111 I. Preschool 0 88 88 School Age 0 0 176 Total at Home 3,385 2,862 3,760 2 Hospitals and Nursing Homes 654 654 654 Total People 4,039 3,516 4,414 Total Busloads 62 49 67 l 1 Excludes schools and penalinstitutions, which can provide their own transportation. 2 ' Includes patients who would be carried in ambulances and other special vehicles. Some may also be transported by their families.

  ~

3 Based on 50 adults (and school children, if any) per bus. Preschoolers seated on adults' laps. 6 M

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I might be traruported by their families. The number of buses required is only about a quarter of the EPZ school bus fleet. Since the entire EPZ school bus fleet (driven i

  ~f         by volunteer firemen) could be made available for evacuating the transport

, dependent, there is no doubt that adequate buses are available to carry the people + who would need them. j 1I '1 ll L i r m m 1 7

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