ML19329C936
| ML19329C936 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Davis Besse, Perry  |
| Issue date: | 10/28/1975 |
| From: | Firestone L OHIO EDISON CO. |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19329C928 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8002200912 | |
| Download: ML19329C936 (37) | |
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_itELATED CCRRES70hL.-
UNITED STATES OF AMERICAN i BEFORE THE i NUCLEAR PIGUII. TORY CC:CIISSION In the Matter of )
The Toledo Edison Cc=pany )
The Cleveland Electric Illuminating ) Dochet No. 50-34Gt)
Ccmpany )
(Davis-Ecsse :Tuclear Power Station) )
)
The Cleveland Electric Illtainating ) Dochet Nos. 504 40A Ccmpany, et al. ) and 50- 441A (Perry Plant, Cnits 1 and 2)' )
)
The Coledo Edison Cc pany, et al. ) Docket Nos. 50-500A (Davis-Jesse nuclear Power S tation, ) and 50-501A
- Units 2 and 3) )
5 PPIPARED TESTI:'CUY OF LYNU FIPISTC:13 i
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- 1 Q. P1caso state your name and business address.
2 A. My namo is Lynn Firestone and my busincss address is 3 47 North Main Strcot, Akron, Ohio 44308.
4 Q. What is your occupation? -
5 A. I am a Vice Prcsident of Ohio Edison Company.
6 Q. Would you please describe your educational background?
7 A. In 1949 I graduated from the Case Institute of Technology 8 with a bachelor of science degree in electrical engineer-9 ing. In addition, I an a graduate of the Power Systems 10 Engineering Course sponsored by the General Electric 11 Company. I have also ccmpleted various management train-12 . ing programs including the management training programs 13 sponsored by the Edison Electric Institute and the 14 Georgia Institute of Technology.
15 Q. What has been your profession ~al experience?
16 A. Since graduating from the Case Institute of Technology
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, 17 in 1949 to the present time, I have been continuously 18 employed by Chio Edison Ccmpany in various positions.
19 From 1949 until 1951 I was a commercial sales represen-20 tative and frem 1951 until 1956'I held the position of 21 commercial and industrial sales representativo. In 22 1956 I transfarred to the Central Engineering Dcpartment 23 to occupy the position of Engineer. In 1959 O
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1 I became the General System Planning Engineer for Chio 2 Edison. In 1967 I was placed on special assign =cnt
. 3 reporting to the Vi~ce President in charge of engineering, 4 construction and production for Ohio Ediscn. On this 5 assignment, I worked primarily on studies dealing with 6 various possible intersystem arrangements that were 7 being considered at the time, particularly Central Arca 8 Power Coodination Group ("CAPCO") and East Central Area 9 Reliability Council (" ECAR" ) matters. In 1969 I became 10 a Vice President of Ohio Edison.
11 Q. In what professional activities and associations have 12 you participated?
13 A. I am a registered professional engineer in the State of 14 Ohio. I am a senior member of the Institute of Electrical 15 and Electronics Engineers and have served as a member of 16 the Power Systems Engineering Committee and of the System l
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- Planning Subcommittee and as a member of the Ediscn la Electric Institute System Planning Committee. I have 19 been active in the affairs of ECAR since its formation 20 and have served as the Chairman of its senior technical 21 ~ bcdy, the Coordination Review Committee.
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l' O. Are you the author of any publications?
t 2 A. Yes. I am a co-author of a paper entitled " Ohio Edison j 3 345 Kv System" presented at the American Powcr Conferenec
! 4 in 1959, a co-author of a paper entitled "Undcrc:: cited 5 Operation of Generators" dated September 196 3 and sub-6 mitted at the IEEE-AS:-1E National Power Conference, and 7 now recorded in the IEEE transactions, and a co-author 8 cf a paper entitled "The CAPCO Group Probability Technique 4
9 for Timing capacity Additions and Allocation of Capacity .
10 Responsibility" presented in 1968 at the IEEE Summer 11 M,eeting and new also recorded in the IEEE transactions.
! 12 Q. Have you provicusly testified as a witness?
13 A. . Yes. I have testified on behalf of Ohio Edison on several 14 occasions before varicus state regulatory ec= missions and 15 agencies.
16 Q. Mr. Firestone, wculd you.please describe your present 17 responsibilities as a Vice President for Chio Edison?
18 A. I am the Vice President in charge of engineering in-19 cluding electrical engiraering, mechanical enginecring,
- 20 nuclear engineering, nuclear quality assurance, enginecr-21 ing in connection with new office buildings, and engi--
- 22 neering planning of new facilitics.
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1 Q. What is the purpose of your testimony?
2 A. The purpose of my testimony is t:o describe generally the 3 CAPCO pool arrangement and identify the types of coordi-
. 4 nating transactions taking place thereunder. I will then 5 concentrate specifically on the oporation of the CAPCO .
6 reserve sharing technique and compare it with the equal 7 percentage of peak load reserve sharing method.
8 Q. Mr. Firestone, before discussing the transactione taking 9 place under the CAPCO pooling arrangement, would you 10- p1' e ase give an explanation as to why electric utilities 11 'inturconnect and seek to engage in coordination trans-
. 12 actions in the first place?
13 'A. There could be a variety of reasons but perhaps the most 14 important would be either to improve system reliability 15 or to achieve econc=ics not otherwise available to the l 16 coordinating utilities, or for both these reasons. The
. 1 17 interconnected network as it exists today has evolved 1
18 over a period of more than 50 years. Many of the earliest i 19 interconnections were established primarily to improve sys-20 ten reliability. That is, to permit the sharing of reserve 21 generating capacity between adjacent systems during 22 periods of forced capacity outages. Later in the evolu-23 tionary process, neighboring pairs or groups of systems 24 such as CAPCO have established interconncetion facilities 9
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1 and engaged in pooling transactions primarily to aci.ieve 2 economics. The Federal Power Commission's ("FPC") 19G4 3 National Power Survey encouraged tho industry to engage 4 in these latter type transactions in order for the in'-
5 dustry to do all it could to reduce electric power costs; 6 the-FPC specifically suggested as a means to accceplish 7 that end the utili:stion of larger units and icwer insta11cd 8 reserves. I,n addition, the Northeast blackcut in 1965 9 focused national attention on the need to improve re-10 liability which also tended to encourage coordination 11 and po.oling transactions.
12 Q. ~What are some of the types of coordinating transactions 13 . interconnecting systems have engaged.in for purposes of 14 imprcving reliability and/or achieving economics?'
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15 A. The types of transactions have included mutual emergoney 16 support, firm and short term power sales, coordinated
- 17 maintenance services, economy transactions and the more 18 sophisticated type transactions such as coordinated-19 operation, including reserve sharing, and the joint 20 planning of generation and transmission facilitics.
21 Q. Whether the reason be for purposes of improving re-22 - liability or to achieve e~conomies or a ecmbination of 23 the two, are there certain basic concepts which must 24 underlic any coordinating arrangement between or among 25 interconnecting utilities?
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1 A. Yes. The concept of mutuality is basic to any coordination 2 transaction contemplated by interconnecting utilitics.
3 Mutuality, as I am using the term, carries with it the 4 connotation that one party can expcct that the benefits 5 he derives.and responsibilitics hc. undertakes will accruc 6 in scmewhat similar fashion to the other parties to the 7 coordinating transaction. It must be recogniecd that 8 coordinating. arrangements, unlike the mere sale of goods 9 or services between a buyer and a soll:r, establish a ld relationship between the. participants which requires each 11 .to rely upon the others on a continuing basis for mutual
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12 . assistance in operating and in planning their systems.
, 13 D. Can you give an ~ example of how the concept of mutuality 14 is e.videnced in coordinating transacticns between or 15 among interconnecting utilities? -
16 A. Yes. In the case of coordin.ation transactions contemplated 17 by interconnecting utilities primarily for the purpose of 18 system reliability, the sharing of the cost of the inter-19 connection f acilities of ten has been based on a somewhat 20 subjective evaluatien of the degree of mutuality which 2i would exist between the interconnecting partics. For 22 instance, if the two syst' ems served loads which were of 23 approximato equal sino, had comparable load characteristics, 24 comparabic capacity, comparable planning and operating
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t 1 philosophics, plus mutual confidence and trust, then
! '2 very likely the cost of the interconnection facilitics 3 would be shared equally between the two parties with 4 reciprocal,scrvices being provided using "best efforts" 5- when providing services, . and incremental costs as the 6 basis for pricing. At the ot.icr entrome would be two 7 systems which, relatively speaking, were entroncly dis-8 similar. Fo'r example, where there is a great disparity i 9 in system size, the small system would be benefited sub-10 stantially by an interconnection whereas the large system 11 would ' receive little or no material benefit, only addi-
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j 12 'tional ecmplexity, in operating its system. Under these 13 . circumstances, it wculd not be uncommon for the small 14 system to pay all of the interconnection costs. Because j 15 of the great disparity in sizes of the systems, mutuality 16 is largely nonexistent and therefore there can be no
- 17 reciprocal services as in the first esso. Accordingly, a 18- basis for pricing other than incremental must be used 19 otherwise the large system will be subsidizing the small 20 system. Between these two extremes, an almost unlimited 21 number of combinations can be found with respect to the 22 . degree of mutuality or reciprocity which might exist.
23 In keeping with this, parties consummating interconnection 24 agreements have negotiated with respect to interconnec-25 tion costs'and payment for services rendered, largely 26~ on the basis of mutuality, or reciprocity, which will 27 cxist between the two systems.
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4 1 Q. How is the concept of mutuality evidenced in coordinating 2 transactions between or among interconnecting utilitics 3 secking to achieve economics through such transactions?
- 4 A. If such things as reservo sharing, coordinated planning 5 and operatien, joint ownership of . generating and trans-6 mission facilitics are to be implemented, it will bc 7 necessary for the individual parries to give up semo 8 freedom of fndividual choice and to jointly develop 9 planning and operating philosophics which thenceforth 10 will be followed. From this, presumably the joint action 11 .will. r'osult in icwor total costs than the total costs 12 ' associated.with individual action. Equitable sharing 13 . of these cost rcductions is of courco essential if a 14 viablo engoing agreement is to result. The definition 15 of " equitable sharing" is extremely-difficult and 16 largely subjectiv2. Unfertunately, after a few years 17 of joint action, attempts t'o measure the speculativo 18 independent action which could have been taken against 19 the actual joint action plan in order to evaluate the 20 relative benefits, becomes very hypothetical and may 21 in fact introduce areas of centroversy which are ir-22 reconcilable. The alternative to quantifying total 23 bencfits and then prescribing a basis for charing is e
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1 to establish common objectivos at the outset, and then 2 designate individual responsibilitics which will result 3 in establishing individual conditions which will maximize 4 mutuality between the par. ties thereby permitting maximum 5 reciprocal transactions. Thi's even where there are 6 ccordinating partios with a grest disparity of size, if 7 they jointly establish individual responsibilitics to 8 achieve mutuality as I have earlier described it, and 9 then carry out those responsibilities, the relative benc- .
10 fits will be in balance. However, if the pa.rties have 11 not established such individual responsibilitics to 12 achieve mutuality, then the individual benefits will very 13 likely be disproportionately great for the small system
-14 and possibly even ncnexistent for the large system.
15 O. Mr. Firestone, wculd you describc generally the CAPCb 16 agreements which have been entered into since CAPCO's 17 inception?
18 A. The basic agreement under which CAPCO was formed is the
'19 Memorandum of Undcratanding dated September 14, 1967.
20 The specific purpose stated in the Memorandum is to 21 take advantage of such economics of scale as will be 22 availab,lo and to further the reliability of the group's 23 bulk power supply. In addition, tlic Memorandum sets 24 forth some fundamental concepts which the parties agreed 25 should be implemented to dchicvc this,purpoco, one being.
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1 that the bulk power supply facilitics would be planned 2 on a one-system basis. Using these guidos, the parties 3 agreed that sufficient capacity should be provided by , _ _ ,
4 the CAPC0' group so that the dependence on generating 5
reserves of others, should not, un.}. css unanimously 6 agreed, e::cccd one day per calendar year. In order to 7 implement these concepts, it was necessary to develop 8 certain definitive agreements directed towards the major 9 . functional aspects of the arrangement. Three of thase 10 definitive agreements have been ecmpleted and are kncwn 11 .as th'e CAPCO Transmission Agreement, the CAPCO Administra-12 tion Agreement and the CAPCO Basic Cperating Agrec=cnt.
4 13 A fourth agracment is still under negotiation, which is 14 now referred to as the 'CAPCO 3asic Generating Agreement.
15 O. Would you please generally describe the CA5CO Transmission 16 Agreement?
17 A. The CAPCO Transmission Agreement sets forth the principles 18 by which the CAPCO parties have and will agree upon the 19 need for additional CAPCO transmission facilities in-20 ciud'.ng interconnections and then sets forth the principles 21 under which these lincs will be ccnstructed and owned and 22 how the related costs will be shared. Basically, the CAPCO 23 ~
Transmission Agrocmont establishes that the ownership of 24 transmission lincs will be determined by the respective 25 arc'as in which the parties. servo and that the costs asso-26 ciated with CAPCO lincs will be shared in proportion to e-
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E l' the ratio determined from the respectivo annual peak loads 2 of the parties. The CAPCO Transmission Agreement recog-3 nizes the need for a CAPCO system of bulk transmission 4' lines to enable the parties to transfer power from jo'intly 5 owned units to the systems of the owning partics. In 6 add'ition, it was recognized that a transmission system 7 is necessary to enabic the parties to acccmplish the 8 sharing of generation rescrves.
9 Q. Would you generally describe the CAPCC Administration 1 10 Agreement?
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.A. The CAPCO Administration Agreement establishes the ccm- ,
12- mittee structure that formulates and implements the plans 13 under which CAPCO facilities will be . committed as well 14 as the committee structure to administer the affairs of 15 CAPCO. Various standing committees havo been established 16 including an executive ec=mittee, a planning cccmittoo, 17 an operating,cc=mittee and a' legal ec=mittee. In addi-18 tion to the standing cccmittees, there are several'ad 19 hoc ec=mittees and varicus working groups 2xploring 20 various legal, econcmic and technical arcas as required.
21 Q.. Would you gencrally describe the CAPCO Basic Operating 22 Agreement?
23 A. -The CAPCO Dasic Cporating Agrec=cnt is the document that 24 is intended to supersede the respective bilateral contracts G
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1 by and between CAPCO parties which were in existence 2 prior to the agreement. This agrooment is intended to 3 set forth the manner in which various classes of.scrvice 4 will be rendered between and among the parties covering 5 such things as the sharing of installed riserves, the 6 interchange of economy energy, the accounting for and
~..- .,-.3 7 exchange of maintenance energy, and so forth. ~ One' semo-8 what unusual feature that is incorporated into the CAPCO' ,
-9 Basic Operating Agreement is the concept of energy banh-10
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ing wheroin the parties may supply or receive energy under 11 .t,he banking principle with provisions to resolve imbalances 12 which may arise out of the banking principle through the 13 exchange of dollars af ter a specified period. This agree-14 . ment brings into being the concept expressed in the Memo-15 randum'of Understanding that the installed reserve capa-16 city of the parties will be shared under a one-system 17 concept. There is a CAPCO Coordinating Office which 18 functions under the terms.of the CAPCO Sasic Oporating 19 Agreement. It has a full-time staff employed in the 20 office that koops the necessary records, administers f
211 the scheduling of the capacity and energy frem jointly 22 . owned units to the receiving parties and any other func-23 tions as may be approved by the Operating Committoc. It 24 may be worth noting that the CAPCC Basic Operating Agrec-25 ment does not impose one-system dispatch upon the parties, i
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1 Q. You also mentioned another agreement which prcsontly 2 is under negotiation and is referred to ac the CAPCO 3 Generating Capacity Agreement. What is the centemplated 4 purpose of that agre,ement?
5 A. The CAPCO Generating Capacity Agreement is under pre-6 paration and will set forth the rules by which CAPCO 7 will determine whc.i generating capacity additions aro 8 required as well as the assignment of capacity responsi-9 bility to the parties.
10 Q. Now, Mr. Firestone, would you describe the specific trans-11 actions taking place under the CAPCO pcoling arrangement i
12 which rafle'dt the types of. coordinating arrangements 13 listed in your prior responses?
14 A. Probably the first transaction following CAPCO's inceptien,
. 15 which is identifiable as a ccordinating activity, is the 16 joint planning and commitment od certain geno.ating capa-17 city additions and transmission facilities. Within the 18 Memorandun of Understanding the CAPCO group made an initial
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19 generating capacity cer.mitment consisting of four generating 20 units--two fossil units, Samis 7 and East Lake 5, and two 21 nuclear units, 3 caver Valley 1 and Davis-Ecsse 1. Joint 22 engincoring analysis utilizing the one-system concept j .
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I was performed . t o determine installation dates and to al-2 locate the capacity committed among the parties so that 3 each party's cxpected contribution to the reserves of. the 4 CAPCO grcup would be directly proportional to its potential 5 use of said recorves.
6 FolJ owing this initial c'er..mitment of generating 7 capacity in 1967, the CAPCO group, using joint engineering 8 analysis based on a one-system concept, ccmmitted thrae 9 additional fossil units - Mansfield 1, 2 and 3 - and seven 10 nuclear units - Beaver Valley 2, Davis-Desce 2 and 3, Perry 11 l' and 2, and trie 1 and 2. Each member of the CAPCO group .
12 has assumed the responsibility, acting as agent for the 13 other owners, for the design, construction and operation 14 of a group of units: The Cleveland Electric Illuminating
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15 Company for the East Lake unit and Perry units, Duquesne 16 Light Ccmpany for the Deaver Valley units, Ohio Ediscn 17 Company for the Sammis unit and Erie units, Pennsylvania
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18 Power Company with the aid of its parent Ohio Edison for 19 the Mansfield units, and The Toledo Cdison Ccepany for 20 the Davis-Bosse units. Additionally, the CAPCO group.
21 has jointly committed three blochs of short-load-time 22 ~ capacity as a means of bolstering and thereby improving 23 the capacity cituation of -the group due to conditions 24 brought about by slippages in the inservice datos of 25 various CAPCO units.
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1 At the same time, the CAPdO group also agreed in 2 the CAPCO Transmission FaciliticsA' greement that in the 3 interest of carrying out the objectivos of the Memorandum 4 of Understanding, it would. jointly provide certain
' 5 transmission facilitics needed in order to permit cach 6 party to meet its obligation to the others as provided 7 for in the various CAPCO agrooments, and to further achieva 8 an equitabic sharing of the resulting benefits and responsi-9 bilities including investmont responsibilities ar.d opera-10 tional and maintenance expensos of the CAPCO transmission 11 netverk. The CAPCO lines which comprise the CAPCO portion 12 o'f the transmission network permit cach party to receivo 13 its capaciiy entitiumonts frem CAPCO generating units and
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14 allcw the partics to discharge their'responsibilitics to 15 each other wita ronpect to reserve sharing. Liho the gone-16 rating capacity additions, each party has undertaken to 17 design, construct, operate _and maintain certain CAPCO 18 transmission lines. In addition, the unused transmission 19 capacity in each membar's non-CAPCO transmission lines which 20 are in parallcl with CAPCO facilities is availabic for CA?CO
'l purposes.
22 Q. What is the nature and extent of coordination by the CAPCO 23 members at the operational level?
24 A. Prior to the Memorandum of Understanding of 1967 and there-25 after, all'of the CAPCO companies had bilateral agrocments l
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1 with systems contiguous to their respectivo arcas. These 2 bilateral agrooments centemplated a degroc of operational 3 coordination with respect to transactions involving economy
. 4 energy interchanges, cmergency support and powcr purchasc 5 and sale arrangements. When the first joint CAPCO unit, 6 Sammis 7, became operational, it was necessary for the 7 CAPCO companics to coordinate operations on a multi-party 8 basis. For.the first few years prior to January 1, 1973, i
9 the aforcsaid bilateral agreements were used as a mechanism 10 for accomplishing such coordination. On January 1, 1973,
- 11 the CAPCO companies executed the CAPCO Dasic Operating 12 Agreenent. Under this agreement, each party is able to 13 . realize a more effective utilization of its benefits from 14 _ CAPCO facilities, and obtain a greater degree of mutual 15 supp' ort and flexibility than could be had under the bilateral 16 agreements.
17 Within the CAPCO Basic Operating' Agreement described 18 above, there are four schedules which describe the specific
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- 19 services and coordinating transactions among the parties:
20 Schedule A - replacement capacity and replacement energy; 4
- 21 ' Schedule B - short term powcr and energy; Schedule C -
l 22 interchange capacity and,cncrgy; and Schedule D - economy 23 energy interchange of operating capacity and/or energy.
24 The three additional service schedules--Schedulo E -
25 specific unit capacity and encrgy, ' Schedule F - out-of-4 ..
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1 pock'et costs, and Schedule G - principal commercial .cquiva-2 lent energy--provido the details of certain other coordinat-3 ing arrangements needed to completc the package.
4 Q. Turning new to reserve sharing, would you first give us -
i 5 your understanding of the concept "cf rescive sharing' '
6 A. Reserve sharing is intended tc~ describe the situation 7 where two or =oro systems sharc their roscrvo installed I 8 generating capacity. This will improve system reliability i 9 and together with joint planning may permit the systems
- 10 to utilise larger, and hence more econcmical, generating 11 units than they could utill
- e on their own without degrading 12 their system reliability.
13 Q. How can an interconnection and reserve sitaring airangc-14 ment betwcon two or more systems lower the resultant 15 total reservo requiraments for each of the systems in-16 volved?
17 A. This is accomplished cy utilizing whataser diversity exists 18 between system loads, by coordinating t!.c planned maintenanco 19 of generating units for the two systems, and by the diversity
.20 which exists betwoon the two systems wi-h respcct to random 21 curtailments and outages of generating 2 nits.
22 Q. Picase give an example of how this ocet rs.
23 A. Consider , tan) systems X and Y cach oportting as isolated 24 entities. 'Each system must install sufficient capacity 0
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1 to serve the requirement: of its load at all times, plus 2 an amount to cover the necc:sary planned maintenance of 3 generating unit =, as well as the random outaccc of units, 4 and the seaconal and condition dorating which occurs.
5 Assumo each system were to utili c, probability analysis 6 methods to determine the capacity required to achieve a 7 common reliability criterien. Mou accume the two systens 8 interconnect and agrco to sharc reccrves. Given the sama 9 total capacity, but with the ability to freely oxchanga ,
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10 reserves between the two entities, the level of relia-11 .bility aa computed by probability =ctheds would be sub-12 stantially better for the combined systems than for cither 13 isolated system alone.
14 Q. Generally, what types of arranecmonts have been used in 15 the industry to allocato capacity responsibility betueen 16 or among. coordinating systems to achieve an appropriato 17 level of reser7c?
. 18 A. In some cases where th.e parties work closely together in 19 formulating and coordinating their plans, no set recorvo 20 lovcis are establiched for cach individual. In thc3c
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21 cases, the parties usually have a long history of working 22 together and are familiar with one another's philoscphics 23 and past performance and have mutual confidence and truct.
24 In the cacc of formal pools and ccordination groups, it 25 is normal,' however, to establich come critorion specify-e
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1 ing cach party's sharc of the joint reservos. This 2 critorion may bc in terms of some percentage of annual 3 peak load, como multiple of the largest generating unit, 4 some fined amount of megawatts, or be derived from a 5 probability analysis, or be some ccmbination of the -
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j 7 Q. What is your underctanding of the equal porcentage of i
8 peak load mothed of reservo sharing?
9 A. It is ny understanding that the equal porcentage of peak
, 10' load mothed consists of specifying an installed reservo 11 criterion consisting of scme stated percentage value
. 12 which when applied to the system annual pock-hour 1 cad 13 -
determines the required amount of mcgavatts of installed 14 reserve for that sys' tem. For e::cmple, if 10% waro selected, 15 then systems A and B having d,000 Mw' and 1,000 thi annuci
- 16 peak loads respectively would be required to carry 400 tw 17 and 100 Mw respectively of installed reserve.
18 In your opinien, would the equal percontage of peak Icad Q.
19 method of sharing reservos in most situations be an equicabic
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' basis on which coordinating utilitics could sharc roscrvos?
. :21 A. Very definitely not. Execpt for the very unique situatica 22 where the coordinating systems arc cither identical or aro 23- proportionately identical, the equal percent mothed would t
24 be an extrcmcly poor method of equitably determining the 25 respective reserve obligations of the coordinating systems t
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1 becauce of its failure to take account of certain factors 2 which affect overall reliability and individual equity.
3 It must be recognized that if two isolated systems 4 contenplating a roccrve charing arrangement both maintain 5 the same porcentage of reserve capacity, it would bc 6 wholly inappropria'to on that basic alone to conclude that 7 the systems are equally reliabic. This is so becau.so in 8 determining a given syctem'a reliability, many f.leters 9 must be taken into account including an analysis of that 10 s;/ stem's installed generating capacity cn a unit-by-uni:
11 basis which would considor such factors as the size of 12 the unit, maintenance schedule of the unit, randem cutago 13 performance of the unit, seasonal and condition derating 14 of all capacity as well as a detailed cimulation of tha 15 annual lead to be supplied. The equal percentage of 16 peak load mothed does not take into account any of those 17 facters. Thus, two or more systems contemplating a reserve 18 sharing arrangemcat under this mothed cannot prcporly 19 determino the impact such an arrangement will have upon 20 their respectivo system r,cliability, and accordingly 21 they are unabic to properly evaluate the degroo to which 22 each will be relying upon the other.
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1 Q. Does the CAPCO reservo sharing formula take into con-2 sideration the factors you mentioned above which af-3 fect reliability and which arc not taken into account i .
4 in the application of the equal percent of load =cthod l 5 of sharing reserves?
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- 6 A. Yes. The CAPCO probability-rc11 ability method prcporly 4
l 7 addresses the factors that have significant impact i
j 8 upon reliability and establishes individual responsi-1 9 bilities which assure mutuality ancng the partics.
- 10 Q. Uould you explain in detail the CAPCO reservo shcring l
11 ,techafque and how it operates?
i 12 A. "I will try. Initially it should be noted that in addi-i 13 tion to the full sharing of installed capacity reservos, l
i 14 the CAPCO companiss have adopted a rsliability standard 15 based on prob' ability met!!cds to datormine uhen additional f i 16 capacity is re'luired by the group.
I 17 Basically, CAPCo utilizes probability analysis, i 18 with reliability as the c mmon dencminator, to proportion 19 the total capacity responsibility among the CAPCO parties 4
20 such that cach party's expceted ability to provido help 21 to the others is proportional t a its potential need for 22 , help from the others. In doing this, the mathematical i
23 process consists of analyzing cach party as though it 24 were operating completely in isolation. The capacity
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I resources arc described by a probability medcl on a 2 unit-by-unit basis. The system load is described by 3 another probability medcl in which 252 daily peak-hcur 4 loads arc included. (Since there arc certain' days such 5 as weekends and holidays 'when the .7ystem lead is sc 6 low that even if each :ystem were to suff:r significant 7 unplanned outages there would be sufficient capacity 8 resourecs availcble to acct system loads, the syscem 9 load probability medcl incorporates only 252 daily poch
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10 loads rather than 365.) The capacity medal is then
,ge ggd with the system lead model to ccmpute the array 11 12 of daily capacity margins which can e::ist together with 13 the probability number. associated with each margin. A 14 daily capacity margin is the difference between the 15 available capacity and the daily peak lead. A margin 16 can be positive, zero or negative. The margin: are 17 grouped'in bands and tabulated alcng with the probability 18 number associated with the margin band. The information from this tabulatica is utiliced as the~ measure to deter-19 20 mine each systems' ability to provida capacity help and 21 the potential need of each cystem for capacity help'.
22 Thus, the positive margin portion represents ability to 23 provide hel'p and the negativo margin portion represents 24 the potential need for help. Capacity responsibility in 25 jointly' owned units is divided among the parties such that e
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23.-
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1 each party's ability to provido help to the others is 2 proportional to its potential need for help frem the 3 others. Put another way, if the negative margin infor-4 mation for party A represents 20% of the sum of such 5 information for all parties, then ,the positive margin 6 information for party A represents 20. of the sum of 7 such information for all parties.
8 The capacity responsibility so ecmputed applies 9 for a ca'.endar year with a cceputation rcquired for .
10 each calendar year. In discharging capacity recpon-11 sibility, a party is first credited with its independent 12 eapacity rescurecs, that is these which are not units 13 jointly cuned by CA?CO parties, folicwed by credit for 14 its owncrship shara in jointl" cwned units. Any ra-15 maining surplus or deficien'cy is acccamedated by way 16 of purchase and sale arrangements between surplus and 17 deficient parties.
18 Possibly the single mest outstanding advantage te
, 19 the CAPCO mothed for assigning capacity responsibility 20 is its ability to pecperly evaluate, using a reliability 21 common denominator, the varicus and differing planning 22 and operating philoscphics that tnc partics have folicwed 23 in the past and thoco that .they engoct to follow in the 4 l
24 future. The method wil'1 accurately acccmmedate widely I 1
25 divergent philocephic with rocpect to choice of unit l a
1
. 24.-
I sizo and planned maintenance pricticos as well as 2 accurately accommodato the impact'of widely differing 3 lovcis of forced outage experience or load charactoristics.
4 The method is especially valuabic in recognizing tho 5 ir. pact that unit size has upon sy tem reliability and 6 upon the amount cf installed roseives necessary to 7 achieve targeted lovels of reliability. I have attached 8 hereto as Exhibit No._JLF-1) the 1968 IEEC paper I co ' ,
9 authored, referred to earlier herein, as a further ex-10 planation of TH: CAPCO reserve sharing technique.
11 Q. . tir. Fires tonc, in response to earlicr questions, you have 12 indicated that the equal percentage of peak lead mothed
- 13 rarely assigns reservo responsibility on an equitable 3, .
14 basis whereas the application of the CAPCO reservo sharing
- 15 techniq'ue will result in an equitabla assignment. Can you 16 illustrate wh-; this is the case?
17 j A. Yes. I have conducted a study which enplores that question.
! 18 In.this study a "small" system utilizing a total installed 19 capacity of 120 Mw and supplying an annual peak load of 100 ;
j 20 Mw is postulated. In additicn, a " largo" system utili:ing 21 a total installed capacity of 1,200 Mw and supplying an annuni i 22 peak' load of 1,000 Mw is postulated. This produces a scale
- 23 factor of 10 to 1 when comparing the large system to the l 24 small' system. For each of these systems, two differant pos-l
! 25 sible combinations of capacity have been assumed to simulato 1
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1 (1) a very reliable system'of capacity, and (2) a very 2 unroliable system of capacity.
3 The very reliabic system of capacity assumes a number 4 of individual generating, units in -the 100 to 15" of peak 5 load sise range which wculd have been insta11cd over a span 6 of years as the system 1 cad has grown. The very unreliabic 7 system of capcity assumes two 500, and one 20% si3o units.
8 The unit configurations fer the largo as compared to the 9 small system are identical within the respective reliability 10 . categorios c:: cept fcr the.10 to 1 scale factcr.
11 In each 'of these postulated systems of capaci;y and 12 lead, the percent rescrve is ccamon,being 200.
13 The nature of the study was to ccmbine the very re-14 liable small system with the very reliabic largo system-15 and then to allocata individual roservo respcnsibility by 16 equal percent and again by CAPCO reliability methods. This 17 process was then repeated for the ecmbinations of (a) very 18 reliabic small system t'egether with very unreliable large 19 system, and (b) very reliabic large system cegother with 20 very unreliabic small system.
21 The tabulation of assignmente of roscrve responsibility 22 Mw is as follows:
e 9
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1 % CAPCO 2 Method Mothed 3 very reliable large plus very 4 reliabic cmall 5 large cyntem 200 Mw 199 6 small system 20 Mw 21 7 Total 220 220 8 very reliabic large plus very "
9 unrollabic snall 10 large system 200 Mw 132 Mw
! 11 small system 20 Mu 83
- u 4
12 Total ,
220 nu 220 13 very unreliabic large plus very 14 reliabic cmall 15 largo system 200 218 :he 16 small system _ 20 2 Mw 17 Total 220 220 Mu 18 Frcm this tabulation it can bd observed that for the i 19 c ase of the combination of the very reliable small system 20 with the v'ery reliable large system, when both systems have 21 identical lead and unit number and ci e characteristics, ex-22 ccpt for the scale factor, the CAPCO capacity responsibilicy 23 assignment mothed and the equal parcont method produce es-24 sentially identical results. In this unique case, the equal "5
' percent method is equitab'le when reliability is used as the i
26 basis for measuring equity. In the moro ucual case of the 27 combination of the very roliabic large system and very un-28 reliable small cyctem, the CAPCO method appropriately ascigne 29 more roscrvo responsibility to the very un:cliable small 30 . system than docs the equal perecnt method. Finally, in the 31 less usual case of the combination of the very unreliabic, 32 large system and very reliable small system, the CAPCC =cthod 33 . appropriately assigns more reserve responsibility te the very t
34- unreliabic largo system than'oca d the equal porcent mothed.
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l 1 In conducting the above study it was recognized f
2 that small systems frequently utili:cd generating units
- i i 3' which may be si=cd as much as 500 or even 1000 of the-syston's annual peak icad at the time they are installed.
4 5 Largo systems on the other hand ner:aally utilizo generating ,
i 6 units si cd such the: they represent 10 to 150 of the ,
7 system's ann,ual peak load at the time they arc installed.
8 As the study shows, probability motheds properly evaluate 9 the-reserva necessary to cover a maintenance er forced 10 outage. of any siza unit including onc uhich .might be 500 4-4 11 .c : 100% of the system's load to be supplied. Although -
] 12 this latter characteristic may in some instances requira
]
' 13 a system which has its capacity tied up in a few relatively 14 large units to carry uhat seems to be an unduly large ;
i 15 amount of installed roccrves, as compared with the othar 16 members of the pool arrangement having divergent capacity ^ ,
17 characteristics, such a result is necessary if reliability
. 18 is to be achieved on an equitabic basis.
4 19 o,* Does that concludo your c:: port testimony?
20 A. Yes it does.
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The CAPCO Group Probability Technique for N
Timing Capacity Additions and Allocation of Capacity Responsibility I.)*NN F!nl>TONI:. soton strunta. tEEE. ALEXANDER II. 3f0NTEITif. ->.xmit itemnut. iox.
no Wil.i.! A.\l D. 31.WTI:RS, scxime utnuai, leta:
Abstrert-This paper presents an estension in the use of prob- y i< nf the cenn<anic <d . !!cnutn c enntiting ca;mt v pbas are addity techtigres for analyt.=g a syr,rera's g:r.erati:n. reserve weil kamu n. (*4ng w nicly are';pted meend ,-nch n rh. n n!!c.t position. A probab.!ist. canctty medelis energe t wnn s load r odel pre-ent unrth of fut tre res e me requirevnent- t redt. thJ to develop the erncted fretaene cgs:r tutica rf da:!y captury bo d meet rd varn hum umddn .
marg:ns; an analys4s of the compute 1 :.r. city maredts 'esds m the N!.on er direct determ.=atwn cf a systeWs depe :dence u;:ert and cer.t .bu.
.g . gg;
- g ,, , . .
rion to a total generat:sg reserve s usr.on as a mcmber of a coor.
in nie.unn4ful term <. .%ch ec;mnnue an:il3 a.. n ia r.c,r., . s aays dinating group. This tecMaisue prwides the nece'ssry data upon shich audgraent and decision can 5e :ssed is ecm;2r.sg siternste P"N".'Tavor "4 eh etton ei fart e cnmp-a: ente. Thu 2 .
l..t te capacity expsaraon ;!ans. ticins; e1;;cuy adaitions, or a: besting m-tai!cd econcmy of cale c:ht. P.Mh of the-c cu.Mmu * ;*:n the capacity res; cased.ty amarg racmters of a cooraif: sting grcup. produce premercs to adopt capacit; ctpws.on ist.tw that vlued overs!! rehabi!ity. IL".ce. eccromic u:aly,:s alnne a wt rudi: lent
. to produce >ati-factory generatin:: caracity pltrW The per;we Of B scEcnotwo owning generatin: capar:t/ si to fa:Zd! the enea:y neei+ cf the IIE ( A!TO enoup cmi i - <.: Src invcat<.r owned c!cetrie eu tcrner , nr.d mea,uren.cnt of the ddity to rneet thet: reeds
% _ utdier. -crvmg m.rthera 0,:nv anti wc-tcrn l'eur ylvama. et be bM.
They are: the Cics clar.d f.,.rcene !!Luninstit::: Company. The current accelarated trend within the int.t-v Mward Duquew I.a!.i Conipant, On:o Edimn Cenpany, hy! van.' ecorditution er p< sole: of recources on an intmynen$ :::.zis in Power G.iup ny. mi the Te-:o 4.di um Compa::y. The,e corn- order m acMen Min M reWity.ceenomy.cri eh, cwre:
t!at a methe.io:egy he developed by which the ret:.t.ve rei:uiii:v panic,im rve apprminutely 7s o a.di.on eiptcyrs havm; a g ,, , g , g, g ,,y,, g g 3 y combmed had t,f approsimar-Iry CN CN ku wr:hm a .4 CN-square.mde alca. s he System 4 ne the five companie< have been that this mca-uren:er:t of individual agte n re!:25::.ty b-2 :trrvi o- ivith s toci that ja accu *ste and tudforan in its eva!utlan of interconnected u nh each other as ned ts nith nemnborme utilitie tbr in:.nv yeare. In addition. informal cenedinated crera- 6 dh pq.etres thr.t est amon:: .ystems.
O,on ha es ted among the compamca .u.d with other companie' g3 ygg g ,,
, g g, in the arca int many ycars. of shared generation re crve are re.!!:cd. Of ecure. 2:1 the cor .-
The purpu-e of the group .is t3 econtmare the m.sta!!stion of ponent system, mn t stram a poution of equity with renect 3g ,y;n g , g; . .;,.j generating and tran-mi-. inn capsenyca the mrcms of thepart'" ,,
in order to cusb.c esch party, on an equirau.e bag to obtant em he achieved only if individu! rystcrcs' contrd:utions
.. rehabet - (with respect to rcneratint capacity; h.tr r.n increa-ed reliad:ty and greater reonomc. to:no camon Cum-pany and ire nd-liary Penn ylvania Power ar* conedered s pinpriate rebtion to trietr revetive raiiaWiity be Cts.
smgic entityJ Determination of thi4 equity cr.n he mad.: only if tt c tcO r.re In e-tabtr hne pr..celun* 'o fdfd avadable '$r rumurin the r istive contribution
- cnd b:r.cita been nere ry tudes cbn meth.=l u. l the wtared
.r deternuning (Jdectives, it has in prnjectn! and actud operation. In a pocling hen carteity t arran addismn are miuirnt by ibe gioup. ami for a -i.:mns capacity & beenmcw nece cry to c*tabli h ru:cs er guideibe, tw whien reepon il.hty nputably amets the p4rtic Tin paper will di.<- b de.wiw will be mr.fe to adJ capee:tv ta tl$c pool, tu, thein thad that havebeen ucs cl<Ted. Thetefore, metFn ity *ituati.m i cs c iti l. kdo,E:v fur objectn e .uialy.,is of ihe im g ang.cy gundarly, the c-tabii-hment of a needination grunn u hn-.- en!a Ennmann. :nul rrlialuhty are the tuo fund.imental con 3hlera- ohjerrive Ihe n- urance ni rehain!.ty reqmrca a mea-urement <,f gla. relatis e rrhalulity of it n.cmbrr*. lit this c t c. IN e,h:cetiva tism* pes t ndng fu the planum ui the amount, type, and timin:
is to estabb-h a mnemnt.n rrliabdity !crel in he ma.ntain. I by 44' futtare cet.rratunt caparily a.hhtis.n . Techniqnc3 for the anal- carh member, adhrrence in u hh-h wii! a%ure an acevat Icvel of erhalni.ty fr.r t he ntonp. Once neain, rynty among .crm.
hper tb TP Rtt Pwit. irn.mmen.i..t an.f wnr..ve.1 hv the P.. cr twrl unh n pn t to c sparity re-pon duhty is ut:.h in mder to
$ -irm 1:s.cnercu..e G.mma sw ..e it.c 11.1.!; l'.. cr :n'.np f..e per-atf am thi nputy :unnn: the members. the nunm,nm rrh sinhty
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ima.%mmce p...rr nim.. inst ilesin
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. .d. u.o-. s. h.e m.nic av.ulaide n p.m-d.dely for e trh memler t In-t .irthus! *n h that hi, con-s'..e p.,nsu.g Nm e b r t. tuih la dnetum in t he r,nnep. relinbility w in pint =wf um to lu g=.httial I. bee he.c neal A. l!. )loniente are uitle ihr Ohio P4*e Com- Ingwliq .. Obg inu-ly, llu. fun ge.is:g is lu.edde emlh if aptqu-i .'I. - u nk she Otevel.a I 1.!crene Ilimuin.nuut Com. P""'" 8""I' ""' "' "'Id hI" I"r **d'"'i"8
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e, L rice nn,u ef .f.: rsnn e.mie r numsmurs s e e innat e: IlU Helialahay,2. the term i,i nl hric in regard to the plarnmg ' he t neunni rasing of in e.df.,I scimrating rapa.eit a.!ju ent for i , ne evaluali m of gruevar att rn irety mean , hn.a.l!3 , the alahty sarie.u I.mination , plu := r.-ha-c4 of fia m r.no is.m.' other I
g of a sy tetu of grurentme **nturi8y rewanee- tu ali fy the lewl utshiw.. h-- amsace bot h pbmwil anal f. .nl.
m virrn.rnt pl.in*i nw. them. There are many f.irtur, that in. l'ame pu.lmhility arithn.riir, it i pi.--ible t.. .al.ubic foe a l
fluence tid, ahdity.T1.c lpair.h3 .huur e la,lahug a nl hwin.g of gein=1, urh a a 3 car, the esimed frnpirm;s ni . w:nente ut rimmarrra, althms li of vH.d ing.n laen c to ru i.neer trvire, are all .hi .laily caparuy inarem . It is ibi- hi wu*l ineiurney not tviuslerni m the f.J!nn anz .h-cuwnm. di>tribulinn of capacity n argum that prm ide- the bi i- Dir re- -
l This appruash to t!.c m.nipe, of genrratme rapacity re-crve. terre analyri . One of the tuajor advantage- of iln. a;>;usuch i.
- - provides a man.1 hek for the determinate"u nf the tunsg of that the event calculated. inr neult i. actu
- dtr orrm dad.',
capacity additium as weil as for allocatmn of rap:scity rt-inni-i- rnabGng a compari-un of actual spie:u per4urnance siah tha bility among incmhers of a ta's! or ce rerdmation group. The ap- calculated expretations.
- ' presch as used by the CAPCO croup is ha+lprimardy on tools it should be outed elut. si the deduction, from in-taih.! rapa.-
and me. hods dercio;rd by th Cevelaml d " -ctric lilunnnatin;; icy are large enou:h in unilv sancutni wah mud.tip.c ione 1 Company that we e eu andW :nd rWpiemental by the grnup. outage-), a negative matam can re uit. The esi rence of a nrg:r It thould be snentioned in pswing that t!as approsch is a:su tive mst;;m doc, not nxcunniv imply Io - vi Mad. -on c app'e-extremely useful in evai satsg the nnpset utum reiisinMy of mental re ource , such a* emergency wpport fre.m t.cchring such fr.ctors as unit me, unit outa;e rate. nainie,ance unta,e system , may be sur.icient to cover the maimtc.i dd.rwrr .1 times at.d sch;di.!in;. fund (sctor, and !<wl forcenst errur or di=cus ion of the analy i oi nentive e p:nry n:.;r m ie. pae:ty ,
' delay of espacity in service date. dc6ciencies) can be foumi m [1].
I Eunuts or Lose /Cmetri stit;sitoss Catet;t sttov or inc Fr:ctuer Dnrmtm or Cas%erry .L eciw From the stand,cint i of re'erve esparity analys.s. the e!cments that inAuence a systenA aNhty to nopiy it toad fall into tuo This saetion di<cu,4e4 ome r.f the prei:al enu-pi< raun- in-d gene ~.! estepriec lond and c.pseity. In adaition to the sunul volved in caleubtion of th espected frapmt. s .h tr r:. on et peak load, the lead c!mracter:stics throuhnut the remanmg capartty mar; tins. The ron Weratione nRetw We nas ' repr-- .
hours of the yest are unpernr.t, smee a system ruust crerate scutat.on cf the v:riou clement intuired m u. br.: pr.6: . -
securely a;l > car Icn? not N over the annal reak. Attention of future system perfurnutnce are identint-d. 't- ether wnh a must be given to the v:nr. tron of the load withm the hour the desciiption of their eper:Se treatment in llc tmiing ni cal'C'l *
- inte ru;: table component. and sa'es to oil cr system 3 In calmeity.
- planning ;;c:2:rstion. ::ot o *y is the growth in snmaal pe:.k cf 4
conecrn, but n!,o the tretxis in relatius smore the ar.aual dai:y, Generd Apprese4 and snonthly peaks. 5.nce rJi these pvamete me of unportance, t ,na:!y, a c: leu!ation of the ewerted frcm:ency di-trii.w.m measures of system adq::sey dea lin; with instal!cd re=en e Icvel carneity margins is inaA for the pericsl of I a;dembt year. b .
on only an ramuc.! cr a muni..;y reck load are not sunirtent. broad terms this ca!cubtron w n sde by cundmn: the ;a R
, Similarly, ennsiderat;on of only t!.e total n. ta2ed eneratini event that can occur for cuh day ar.d, in tm n. fer tLa vent :=
capacity as rei.ael to lar.d is hisudident to adequateiy me:aur' reliabihty.The charneter.stres of the espacity in terms of ei:e of q;cstion. ObvieuAy if all'the luart si:d ecm:4tely predictab:e. only a in;de vaine of ernanty
- ar-in individul units, their .nanarnance rt*1unemente, forced out- weuM be predicted for a day.Taim-intu eun-eterane.n tL! ,orre i age performanu, meenn! !.n.itations and day-to day oper:t* of thHead and esparitv c!cments can auume varnm me%rtm, i ing condition are of vita n..crtance. Al-o. con ider: tion mu t be subieet to some degree'of radomnesa. altertmie espa*Ety 's..arpra given to the ettent to winch a system depemh on espacity re- can be awociated with each proiaeted d y.
sources of other systems m: ale n ailaNa throu:h interconnee' ions, Based on the relativelv hi:h decree c4 censinry attrit!vi to and to the de;vndence on the c:re .;ency cap.ie:ty of such systems. nome c!c:: ents of the load espaettv situntion e L. i ants-J '
Such rimpiilicd measures of in>tsikd carne ty as percent re-crve maintenar.cc), esicuistion ci the expe'ete.1 anon I <r p: cay db.
st thne of annual peak hud ennset be ennniered to provide- tribution of espneity mareins can te neule by br%kn.: a vcar alune, a suf3e:ent mcu ure of a systemi ab:hty tod rupi y it- load into subintar ab sceh a- months or wes. with the tea; , bid with its own insts;kti capaeny. Sim:!arly, uch sunpli6ni mes* expeeted frequency for s ::ven c:pacity cur.j:s ewgual t.. t;.e -un sures do not proside su eva'aation of a sy>temi reiisbihty con- of the frcquencies vn:cuLiot for a;l submts rva! .
tributions and b. ment, an-inc from s twling or coordisution ar- The cho:ce of the muaber of ten;th of uldntena .2-ed in rnntement; therefore the-c measure are nedequate a. a ba is making an apprai-al of a year-long carmiy <ituati... 6 t .-e.d.
for allocatmg carnetty re ponnbdity m nuch arran,:ement*. upots a number of factor- calhn: fcr ju@nent. lla .e Ute, the 9-Icetion of the subinterval wdl det,end upn they.n* i e c wit!.
Fas.ovocy Dartnevrtus or Dutx CarsetTV mucm which the sualy t feel 4 able to rinenbe the scLiion- e. .n the Considerin;; the nent to receenite the dyi:amic nature of load dady peak load withm the ubmterval, a weil n N.e de::rre .
and availabic capanty un at least a day tn Ly ba i . .f an wit h whith espacity es entsic. . maintenann , ca-.nui d. ratng..
. adnguate annipis of rehabihty is to be obt1inntl the fra- c ch- can be a--neiatol witla rper:6e tune ubintenal .
ment prunnel for re-crvc analpa n the dady cagucity nus:m. .N*aturally, re-crve analy-i, -tudic hnving d.fferen. ..i.p tnc.
'll.e daily capanty mar,,n a emderni tu be the diaTerence and foundation wdl ju-taiy .hferent cone lu-wae- r u uta:r, vl.c betacrn the in.ul timt cu-t dming a dady peak pern=3 arnt the appropriate suliarnal. F..r esampic, upriatn.: -nula.- made opernNr rapacit3 at that time. In identifying the dady peak for the next uproming 3rar for pirpu-c- of Lulecimu pc.tha .1 fond, the intcut of the capesy analym u dl ;:nvern the n.n-i. lcm- pnucr ut meersuptilk hud seveuur nu::ht apprutntotrly k iri . l
. tion given to the native f.wl. .i mne urni in LWh. h. the s aria- on M uwkly uldnee-rv a l Tin.n.uh!bein-adiniun rhe ba-i of tense of that bwl u nlun the b.mr. the ii.treinpidde en.nement, crethble forvra of en41r cal .ni . m ihql.it.l.- r.Lt...n-f..p ;
anel wahs in nels r 3 trm . Operalde rnparity for ttd1 putt." p among the eLily pn.L he Ig.
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as.aw. Tunaserso a 4 s rows:a arrannum un store:w., is:uust l%)
e pela.lule lent upon neeL!y intersal,; bring develn; sed only one i
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3 car m winnce, un h a forecast u,uld have tamedegree r f errth.
., tality. ,3 On the other hand, I,m:;rr terrn studies are often in<ed upon T too" my y
I ~ forces.:s of enenthlv peak !aads. This is usually the re uit of the
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1 go.dahty of c Jkctmg and analy rmg historical load dats on a ealen lar bas. In this :)pe of ar.:J3sa the whintervs! mit;ht nell [ '*"
correspowl to the 12 caler.dar rc: 9ths. g **" ,g-
- F,.e purimes of timig CAPCO c:racity eddittens,12 sub- o interval. peryear a cre u*ed. This <;eci. ion was barc,I upon the de. #
- .\.
- ep greerif ci,nAdence 'that was felt sppronnare to phea on neetly i s erun monthly peak load proicet::as m:de four to n:nc years irt 3 T 24vance, llowever, th: accurney ei the prameters d:4 not sects to warrant in: ess.rg the esleu:; ting burden by n,ing weekly e i eo d to DAf5 sihintervals.
,t Fig.1. CAPCO resk-hour !m.1 darstion carm for u Januar{r t. nit July.
Reprerembm oflest I It ha< been found for practical purp: :a that certsin days of ju atifv includi:: the tranesetina in the load rnodel. O ' the ether l Go year can ;enersur be 2;r. ore: in historios! or prospective hand, an agremt.cnt to 6:!! capuity and enet*y M an . ' '
rapacity analy*H. TWe are rhtys in whi:h the loid it I) so sma!!
sy*tmi on a .han, t.s, snri sf" I: tem kven thour.h ; y mr~.t si
- th* t the capnesty out
- ; events lar;: enou;h to resalt in ne::stive- esparty cha.m rniht In mvolved) is prot.erly e ? :ded from capacity mar;.:;s have :In:04t nt:, ::14e probab:1.ty, r.nd 2} uell con %deration ta deurrdut:w ci reerte rMuiremer .s con"ined to the wceLend* sad he.. !2vs that corr.srond to the . A* nient:or+! pre. iom!;, tha rrapr eomr::.e :t te ".2 McLdad lowe t daily puk L;d. of :.ci;M,:nn; systemt, p.e., pontare in Lc represent : ion of bad depen i upin the ebb ivetr.e s:
margin in rne;; vst days 2::2me:Me i for these Ioner! vads are partir*ilar espae:ty analym la any ent>:, cr.re r ,un i e tr.kaa :n
' e rf little value in condens! the n 's, tr:thic fer r:covery of nukm.t an integrut;t;on cf remits co .aincut wie th2 d:*r ne;stive rnar;::f). A:.:lyd;of ar:..ul residarstWt e trves for .
need. I'or eutr.; !', ute of s !~td repre'entatMn h I ar's ca the co ab;ncJ ! cads cf the CAPCO ;rocind:e:ted that 2 232 W*hch drm lo:,d wJ1 pruiace reu .N relatel to thwe rim el ay year (tweh e 21,!:y inontha, iss.e:dy rerreenting steek. for the plannin; cf r.dditi.m:el cer . city. Ne:ted ner;rr- : cf
' days) con titutes r. r:: d bs ;s fer Nani::; C/.PC0 cepacity.
Since the basia ist fo:cesen; tre frtqJency d:rtrhution ofremurces ne:atise mustsnatriubc wWI c :kdraprocat upon bNi'ts4 thrs the c cuica, instdid whew t w de
$ sty i espacity mar; ins is a day 4y-!ay ecuistion, :ni siree planning. remanun: after oatges and er.pacity !bmtatians of s ; s:: s a typeload force 25ts are :nde ::1y'fcr the peak cf c:chsenterval, leis than Iheinte* .txt f.nur!yload. u~! n .his anntn.v'.)
it is neee -ary to d: vein sit est:r.:s :of the peak ind for each syitent oper:tica rei:1 result in addithc.I wen : ens w t ca m;d day. Of most s;:nine: nee, rehttre to the tciatior.s nruona dady resenters must ba dwended v;ensuce v .rist;on .in in Si 5 peaks mithiu submtenWs,:re these f::ts: 1) that tLe dily pe:b the hour, shich creates inad leve!s in evecu of the inte ruyf crithin a ubinterval dicer frem dev-tW.y peaks, Q :tst the valae. recluires th:t canaeay he r:crved within the symem t.s its rar:ous -nbintervals tii.Ter in their irternst rehtior.s. contnbutinn to n.;ninii::n;insdvertent inter: hance and to n :in- l The relationsh6 of the hi; hest ;t da:!y reak he.ds for each tenance of intere:nr.ected system ficquency. A!Pr:nti '
rnor,th nas denved by aver:;m; feur ynts of h::torical bad had repre.entst:en can include an 2:bwsnee for fur.d vsris '
dats on a ceincid:nt hourly tesis for the four memhers' systems, within the hour, i
Ta ehe pesbhour b:d darat:en ca-vcs were derclep~i, one for
. Errer in 1:2d fereesst can, of courac, be ers!cated. A rnajor each month, on a per- ar t be.s.si the4e curves ' vere spNied, with. .
out reccen!:=; any tred a:::ior-v ta the study years 1971- diGenttv, in practi:e, ia des to the comprehan ive nat :re of '
1 A. The actual erneuterinput of the p nent CMCO pre; ram prth.sbility approach. 9 ace, tr< -ine w.y er er.cther, a) ovviets of repretestiwc the robhe r to:d duraten curve f:t n ribed to each daily peak fo:d. an !yms of fore:xt cerer r-~" j
- the hhfcat 21 pe:L toa kr the rm: th :.s Sve strsqht licc . Ioad. me:ude some iden iration of error impact on each d:aly pm j I
Fig. I re;: resents an cun:ple ei the J. nasty ed Lly CAPCO
, peak-hour to.id duratien entves, In smnnury, the total annual CA PCO fc2d modd een an c,f 2 monthly pen-hot:r bid durat;on curves repr~entm-d ., y pt.A.
Throu;f. cut the ind.ut y sene systems have contr:et: with ho'tr'!nads for a tot:d of 2*.2 days. The group 14rge o n.tomers fer sap,myin: energy under sa-cai!<d meerru;>ti- peak ionds for t!.c imti.d ::curration p!.nria: en Ne ratn. In rnany casts .these ra!x are predicated upon 2 9 stem t.ot innta3in .yerstm; car city in ord:r to supply rum of the indiviwn! member commntes' oGes!!y e ti nat smh Nd, but re!yer:: mn the ret ves acrma!!y not iued to ' month!y peabhour tmd< mth nu sii'.cmty. Curr ntly th a wal: tanstion in M:J forcen3 tire tee!mhptes among the av.m! cr
.:typly the firm load of the system. IVerminm; the reqmrements companies. It wai hit that imtisily cach member em g
' ih pcmlence upon t! e resources ei other snten s in order to be+t project that p. rtian of the tota! CAPCO .a->.
lad in h ply enci own nnn lual plas mterruptible losd or laircenative y graphiest arcs for which his 6d fureca tme technique e.. mpply imiy its one 4rm > I UmJ just:fy, reyce;n cly, in. cith a!!y f adored. As enorc espenence i. gan.ed mta forraaen: t h,-
a h lie.4 e.r etdudies interruptMe Ina d from the calculation.
total CAPCO 1.ud, <hversity may he taken inta secount. !!cre tdr i
The tocatment ci taled carecity ed energy to other syrtems c :stomer supply contracta, the indmdual comp ny
- aerwment meld, oftocourse, fcikw shndar con a rations. For esnmpic, an the greement covering bint plannm , and operatj sell capacitv to a nahborma nstem whiih carnes 3
Ce.ddr;;stion comp 2rabN ta slut tte ene's can tustomers would est!uai..n of inscrruptibh lola frem reserve snst % *lkre au i no proldem in hamiling firm sale y M1 L mpany i .
s i
C.) L/ '
m .m y -
0 1 % 1 v k b- 3 I
L
e -
i
. e ,
, e .
i op mm. sl al.: e sn ee s. mot r ruumian.ss e s nuuure. - Il!
eimtemphic run tie :: into :s ule, n::rrement with a e neeparIy chsee care I.c entered int _o the randnm capacity calcu!ation u M
, estrrnal tu the rt a4*- ti-**. l'*r the laupme of mm g the mili d rasuhem eastage rate.
,,,. four geni ruin.g pa ici .ghbei.m , the r sen ini had wa not adju fed tu nihrt ihr lo.ul saruhun statima the cl'd h<=es. rf,.u ng,,,to,pacity /t inentation %<f.I th erInpr.ll;/ ('.ll'f 8.*
Adihtuni.il sticly by 11 cal'rtl gump i rngn;nd tu c tahh-h The espacity modri identifact with caeli und its :st t.uw ;
the appsopnner larilua ns of kod sariation.
rating, its rand. m outrye rate, sta trasonal r:: t....dition eh-r :
' amt its schedalni mamien.nwe. I;cepin; m inn ! that arnerat Ifrper.rnturiosi c/ Cui uir1 nn rves of the Cal'C0 memi cra are to la inity reer.lin stol. '
Fur enrh 64 the ubinterra!s fc u., n*mth-) of the re-rnc rapacity med:1 u tJ in ihe timing of nearity r.dstien4 s-e
- i. annly*i. nllrapant) re mnte+ nne t Icareemn"d for. IN!s nlaw- terurted by lureping ali acncr.itimt equipment mtr a "s.
t.ri,.e in . lei cinping prrri e definuir.n, for all ihe kiwl- of rapirit.s 9 te n," and I.y plantiin; sci.edeled mainten.: ace on a r e event, that ran orrier m nyatem creration. Al-o, ifw-a eventa nated "oncoycem" bus. ,
rain; c in pred;ttahn.ty of nerurrence i ay five year- m udramr) einte umform equipment rarnq prortdurra pr: tid! h r from ecrtai.ny to con.p!cte r.udmo.co . Th. prc.irbd.ty-ba rd desc! aped,iach rnentber,for the purlwe et t:m sit . e t ."h-l analy is decri1= 1 pernut treatment oi just tu o en:ror:r ..f a net ratcJ rdre. ro's demonstuted ico sta tba Mer, i r event,: con.pletely prnhet n:e crems, and e< ny,1v e rty randum of hi renective : encrating units. Conditi a an:t e aenai e .
eventa subject in bn. of.iae. If in a submarval it :- tw- & iam for the teral equipm:nt n+ee hann:c.! Ly t . > teciam ,
to predict that a en cu u .2tt-) wd1 be u::ar;uhW on a pianm d nan.cir, by vNting a u:.it's n:t renatt r.n ta id.
i basis, t!ien su.h rapaciti is cuh:.;ed from the out.u,e tah!< as crace coadinon, by n@.ttin.t the dady io.. l idd hs
, Techmques frir rm rataq an outa :e tr.ble are well inwn P.'.. appir.priate :'nnas:t. or by a con ar.atice, ci the-c.
' Input data nuamrJIy reigwed r.re c. Liin.: of tha cencrat mg ua t- A umt's avr.i! h.htv or wnar.y:.shty is tumdr.to! in enhe j that are pbm c.! to he oper:.b!: tbrin: the renyl for a hich the two nxdes: 1) #d:daled :n intea..r:ce outs;e. n hn 5 L -inn. a.
4 oute.;e table i. to be valid, trvther wit'; rs, dom catage raic by sexova; t he ur.: frcm coruiderat:ca in cab at te tt.c r .
i amoeisted nitis cas unn. Of ptrticubt egmsnce en the cal- ny avadab.2ty 13h:e. cr 2) anpred.ets:e nut a.c. +h i, e cu!stinn of the frapawy of lady egaca: mar.:'na in the develop- ulu n d by ak of., s amhm c.utry tr tc in dmdopo 4: d tl e i. o ment of a ca;mty avaa.nl:r tal,ic in vers d the proha'd.ty a f abdn tab:t. A jur.t nuritrq;cre,np t?rvc r.:ci a tici;v A spectic capatity wd.d.dity es e:M (i.e , pr fv u!4ty rI cutti.i n.aintenance prer:an Ic: ali u:Jte, coor.hnr.ta he w X MW bcieg avail.6?c), rather than t!.c ewd:.tive pre b:.bii.ty .aue practm .:4d the m:ny resetier.1 etM c.n, e: *
. of capacity outage escuts (i.e., Icbaln:.ty oi X MM* cr more memLer comrsma. The primary obiettre of : c- eer i n.
i out.;:). tenante t'n: rart b to ir.erme C\N0 reL.ilty w t!.en Althcyh it i beyumi oar vo;n te da s:a in deptl. the devek.p- iedace tl.c tots! C'JC0 Lpadene on e.ternal rn rat.m ment of rendur.: outree rates for ':re in Qve!rt 4 n: the e: parity avurr:4. Curdier.fio:n nr.s veen.p:; hed by or : :.: L:
availabihty table, it must he remembered that enainterir; n.<,nths the total oficad m.] maictenance. ;
bdpuenc
- nut be trou::ht to Lca r on re es il at are uu d. !mer Alth.us tr.: Jett t Cl.K0 :.a.nto ae eMJe %-
one of the vidues of the approacit .benf el is its mherent com- vele:wl va .. seekly t as it reas :<ded to " rom d.e +
parabiT.ty inth actus! performanec, corapari-o. of edeu!sted tenance -ciiWaie un er.ely pen-is to that u. c 10 c.ir.-
frequency of v:rious capacity events tvirh ecteral s can cf espen- avai:.:hdity tst:a needed to 've computed rcr e.drahr,e . t enced capacity outa;:e can ste in=ight on the ad qu,ry of the T1w %uner ahc-tulo for ecch rr.onth estaua d :h name i assumed randam out:;;e rates. meganatt dvs cf mainter.ance a the d.t.ded name. . ,
Other components of ::c,cratim carn.ity unasailedhy' con- conu ted of chout the earne tctal number :.f imn: c con- u I
sidered predictable em.uch to esclude frem th. isminns outege out oi-ervice dur:ne the month. For eumt d e. s tmid. .-cr.r-i rate include sea *onal deratin::, enmenis;r.!;.1 der tin;, and pur- overh::ul get erally lastm fear to Sve trent na alwu : !
- e i; hate of i
- nn rapacity. dra enal dcratmat i.f en.ne:ty, whica re- remusing that et frern the c.ynety atadahd.sy St %r e -
deets pred.ctalle ca-. mal efeetr Louhl redett m ths t:d ubtr.m me nth ro.ly. Doder um.eet: ens c! tertweek <itca:Hi we r -
either in adju ting generatu..t imit >izm :: by overa:1 udju-t- dEtuit to 9mubte nn a n.onthly bui ben.u.-a m uely :...
ment to !$ ash Cur 6*r Wem ec.neident I duratan;. TL ch- staner- tw o u.da s f the nn.e n+;mit ae ami a:. a .; t ment reprrtents tlic mainlity c.f .J1 ;;ertrutin;; unit of a n > tem mate r2nde.. cut ee rate nire i:hetiWed vi mea-. : . i r.
to atisin their ctpreted (mayee penconal) rate: at the rane ca c. taking one utut out of the egaeny autLLd q .._t f.;r time. This maldlity m.nbe a rc uit of unit cot.diti. n. partul . month provided an adeg. ate st:aulat:en. Adntos :nts t2 :
outa:es, and/or caratity lin i:ations. The snarn:tude 6 *al,je t load < were devebr4 to accour.t for d&rer cr.: h e . .. r cr. -
to deternunatei fruri sy, tem operatin: reccrds amt, mdcel, "a-planned" and "r.nsnder an%nanre s teda!c. ,
1 .nay be degw!rist uann the ranr 1 in y <>f the y*:cm. hn - T1.e r::. dam outa::. rate a:nm.!i..cach umt ts:: et tho - -j portionatcl.c mad vah.r* of >y tem comddent I derat.n: can Ir alality of its 1 %,- ini.twer.bk n!.cn cal:cd u;+n. U d.d . l convemently and siccumedy hanalnl bv *1mply ad.limt a n.rre. - the ruudum catar.e rate incimles fcreed autues .nd hort. . l
- sponding anu.unt to it.c dadv truda. Valum m cser
- r.f. rav. 3 *, mainter.anca. dhart-tcrm ma.ntsrar.ce can be re-de; aol .'.
l percent shnuhl 1.c revn%rd n-ith re peet to re- Ale ch.urp in fin;uning u cek; but :f at is not performe-l t!.c inut o.: !.b :. s j
- random out.w rate or mut ratinrs. A cutem covrshanne ;.ur- perieure a forced u. nae or a hna-tesen rap: ury es:rt.ashu
., j chase of ihm capacity (n.m a ner.thinerine sy> tem pias find a .\ciin.1 ecau o procedures fer ecGetn.g vuit prvforman:e o appropnate en 4mrty ubeuct from the h.a.1 nwdtI a cusie punit. umiorm Lvn are ndi under dneu--ion. : rh P.irty derci.c-ing smount of inad, as though the nen:hter lui naumed re-ps.u i- r.sude,m outa/r rates for its unita tweol up.m its esperir.
bdity for carrring it. If the analpt in. lieu.s the avaiLL.htv of 'r'ntme C\l'CO unit ivere a:..cnc.I ;i.intly actre.l-m..a L.
the instrha-al c, panty in le ics, than IN pre ent, r then the head uir.1 mnir.tcuam e an.I tam . e .. tirs bn c.I ar.
nemovnt run te dwountal appn.priatet.v; idi..nately, inc pur- juden.<nt ana ua i,se ,. , r; s ,cr m. <
l
+ + .V As '
S .R S . .}L ln L a l
l l
l l
T 3 ..e . ..-m w. -_,
y .y.--- ,- . w -.-ie-p q i qlpg=t
e e , , . ,
e e j -
im n u .. w crmn..,n,...n ,runin ni......n,o..orp m t
Ws'n.] t'erp. wily .Iblits'ene i , -_ ~
g~ .\n ianput: int spiJu atient..f the pn.rr. lure de . del twee t Li eavs .,,, ,,,,,
regar.1 in the timing of generarme rai=erity . .l.ht:.n. Taa gen- .
. ernt..ppnwla : ire p.--. hic. On ena ha: l. ihe enDie preimni, of espert. l prifoe m:ince sthat i . the fmpn nrv eh-te:1.nh..n of.l.uly j -
c:iparity nungin-) ran b trueui=1. al..nz with .dhre t.criant
, f.irfms., tee drtrrmum w h. ther or not pmtwic.l p 11.vnunre ui l I -
14 acceptal.ic 'lld Inn el .h-. eige.n of futute pre (.a s.ruwe pro-
, viik, an cwrilent b..-b f..r etn i-=.n naakiha by nun.. cn.cnt,
, uhrh u u t run e.lcr the -..ri.d. p..hti. ..I, aiul rinnonbr factm* as ac!! as relial.ihty. ~llie planning .4 :s nde 3 irm tua!cr enntrc!
of a -inzie manam.wnt may famr tlu- aprruarh.
- *8W 8 t*uw8 .\lternatn rly, ; -nige us. heat..r may tw estracted .*n,m ti.e CA74C6 f t na sa GIN s 'compirte diseppt.na .J prujerts d pctfortuance Pa sc'ed Tat?m j perfr.rmance that esemk -urh a enicii..a vse ud . '..: . du ric. 2. T :=ol piper ntem esp
- re.1 freq..ency nci 1 for sdditioim; prwratmi capacity. Whr pluaiw ~ I ca!
de-injnoi..n en da.h capacuy magms. ,, y,,n,,imated 11.;s t n mty .h n .n n. p M .+p..n - 4e-rern* r4 Inore than une inana etneret. In them ra-r- .-Me W ryi,q /.-ed ed (.'.9, city Reprm etion, con i.tency c,s cr a les.ul e4 3 cars a+.d ta facu.t. .: . en 7
. . makin,c, it m.ty bc k L:.L:e to f..P .w the 1 atter e mr-- I ats i.
j Devel..pa ..ta of the cy>crtc !(rcquenty t,f mpicity enarguts t- g:.nr the ahnve reawma, CAPCO chte.i to r-P:hh-b ; p'..nirg cstrusi ..nr h3 a.castring cn.h J tl:e < lady peuk Imd of a ,iendard for timm of emiacity ad.htiw, ocu'n.'. . . w.vi-fn.<,nthh i uhuetes val :riaiu-t the s ancn. atuoar 14 et svaush.e
.nuu.i annual fremsency of depend. nee on estertut ge..crati.at capacity n.117 as1.heaMe rapa.nt r iMe. T_hi erunpan r7 re u!ts ,
m a li ine; ni pu--ihie caiucar mar,:n+ fear each of tne days.
1".sch e4 tlwe rapirier nur:m- t ...f er.* tree, a neiste 1 with the .Y<:thim; inherent in the ca!culaten and ur%. o' d.:ity capacity teargms ident nes . the appsupnato eiitenon ."vr! C n-presbabihtv of the tra re-imedig ca;ecity !crch mleration must ,.: ;tiven to the esp etc.i deper.dtoca i., the 4 The pn.halalitie4 far each nur:m level far .il days af the sub- reserves of others, alese: with an .eppraisal ot' Le an:b3..ii:v m,
. terval- are adden. the tossi- repre-entm:; the rgeeted rate of suth leserve*. b-, aigrad >l.ou. l .a m:.ude evahuim of r -
m .
h-s- r,ccurtence at th:4r i.urein, cwn -c.l u.t an per perio.8 fee *.. , .
Is.r / re4cive p~ito.n, er.mh4:ity rd the tran. .ui . ion r* .urru rd
< lave per n.unth). A!! po-ch!e nuri ni stai their re-;-etive et- tha contraettral arian:rtuen*s with nrubbmin: sy, ten 5, i
anc perted eate nf ercurrence, esme *e l m. davs per vrar may bc the experience iti . qwdhi.t i::=.n mi h re t vea. ,
detern.h.asi he repeat una t ne e.asdation (or all vibmterrais of the
.it'ter c::reful con alerMien th.: (,.,li, a Cr;up e.crt. 4 for i ts rear.1%tred. the re .dtn .J the s. n .
ure? na: procniure frr a typical 're>crve statatand t,;c criter:vn level .o, or.e d.ev yr s ar do.*:.-
poncr *v-tein wemld appear as m. e q:. , -
dence on esternrd scaer.:: on re-airre*, s ah. .e ! sen. ti a fr*-
quency siistributica c,f capac.tv nut:;i:n that is eq, cried kr t'.c th.str.Ts -
CAPCC granp m 1N4. Lte that the meaniura e !c :hte-! e p:e-i to Rewrte Arnelysis
.lpplient ron ity 46nency compares (s.vorably wnh the tt:.n-ice c.:p.s s
- The en.! preniust i4 the fore;cin:: precedure repre ent, the dut noubt be aweinted with the mw a syriv interrynre:r' uni .
exhau-tive evulo;.nem vi the aba.ty a4 the :iven yete.n of rapac, with out ide sy. te us ' hit the CAPCO Gro. p wi!! l ave. It !2 .
ity re-oarre to opply thei;ivenload.orcounkrabteimportance "a'ih r,b-crvin:: that :f CAPCO were ahic to dep:m.I ni an d .
iis the fact that the re-u!ts of the siulyes are esine+-c.I m ter u, rNrves of ne@b for capac.ty in stucant, up to rM J'," ro
' r,f event
- that can be contared riir:etly ua a i affer-thidact hada, more freyucally than 0140: day per year (0 477M + of.W3 arith the wi.datim esperienced. It douki be noreti that the - 0 U ' T ila "!d'5^l!'Mi Pf"h d" iLF" "' I he k'- ti n.i ct.e evaluation <suantde* the estent to whkh the >ynens us. der anal, day m ten 3 ears (ctuMir, one day in 13 *a yea ,in 197;).
, yei* mu-t de;wnd upon he p in-n "outside' r+ouren m lie.:
8
, . vi .h..ppig lant. ami s!-i quantific- the cuent to which the .haTros or CtcactW Ib:wounut.ity system van pturnic iwlp to "..at ede'* -ptcms. (Nccative rusrpus The CAPCO g o.ip like ether paaer raub. 8cquhe+ s mceha-
' denote the depetalente up m utsde eyetem>; po ita e mar.cn< ni m for in-urir.s the equitable harini <J henefits awl re-prsi-l.
identify el.e hdp th.it.can be made avaibble.) lloth the ne:abre li.htas ari-in; from *uih an a>-esatinn. The fundan c at.d l m4 nurdn .oal pn-itive m.ufn repre cut quantitie- that esi-t afice of rmuty ad. pied be ibe CAP %naip es tut ea h p u ty hn hl l l ' the -pirm ha+ utdimi it4 re emus to the m.iunmca estent to cuntrd.ute to the an.up te+crve in the sune et.1=a t:on a M es.
ati fy it va n I.ad rv inhemeet. Qu.tr.ti:icaimn ad a <ptenA pvct, to :h,e it. In hup cun,tma thi prinank . ele m.tiv:d ul !
alnlity to provide emeracuct upport to other . ahme with .ts pa rt > *. contnhusion and judental ca.c are esahmen!, and gnitential cniergency a c vi the tr=uirre* uf urhrt.4, pr..videa an t!n(*:h an sacrative praecu, megawatt
- nf rap, city re p n i. 1 estreincly r..n.prehen-ive bei.- i..r aiuo,e* arid ju le ic'it nitit hility are si.dtc.i asiiuti: i.i parti.-. untd the eie a.evi art..t mq
- E ecq=ws to the m-talbeion ut genrratm; rsrinty. ity
- . ppis m.; aman ; the huhvid.uld enntninituma and use are icnhml.
s
. di,~. a, , tu y-ti,n n.hc.huay ana iior,,runnah l p.. inv,, .u ,iir,i,.on,a pi,v,en ir, ihe ,nah.a er v.,ps,y ,,iay ;,
n.arso 4 one with the wr.ithc maren of the shcr. the t. den- de-red ==l ut.y be n,..I to pit adiant.r:e to esplore catanty ti.il eu tun 6r 44 rap.inte nt.u gin hv ma3 .J uartrunnret .n" ran rrheil.n In tween ara) among ptem . Nr:t,tive mare.n, ro l.c int!y rvahutch Tin- rvabuton van le.an rsphnution ..f ti.e rente'u . ful n the mraaurr of n 3"-ecm' need for lu@ fo.m mig.
f unp .t e4 nuram cuit.nac- npia relui a3 ne an esploraia.n of sid. . n heir > the p. -hive masipr. i ih id..pta,y .e iso r. .nn. tii.ii <.ip.dukt, ..r i h.
i@ f3 .# - rA]h, manfa
- i. ,y cems aba;ty i., p,i.,,a, h4 . . i z
- %.) C)
.Al 11.1 L 1D D 1
- - 4 3
. - _ , - . . -. . . ~- - - - .- .
t e
.e ,
i .
\ * .
, . r,mmos .e r.; .:mu .rr ruuninum ..,esner.. iib a
- TAltlE I ' enagnien.le . fl.e espertnl frniurury oa' nml e .il-nJ i .ial e o .
. lit 74 CAND Gn.n r Ihrenu. Ineuenai lh e n.nritas ur . h wi.a N de e.en kle e4 di.- le M a u '3 Im. * -
t caru n v .hu.m
- - l>e:re.varu ('icuin 12f.77 \lW nodd he e spectcil su Inovole help in oilwe- un uan h las ser n a.-
.] ,
srans: .w w.m 4.eune.mI
.<. u . .le..n.in!.!
- s. . . -
I 11 eW ms.r. u nit ute thau :: .n.all i icm -dd.
To account for d.frerence- us the nursu it. trkt me at.a ;
X U a$r * "F'"I"*"""'""'^ '"" ' " ^ " " ' " " " ' * * * ' ' ' '
31W. .alserin Frnpicury nicpwatt da3,. 'Tu tive nee gau art day,' is ayual to the + ..
j - . . .T.s fday / cm).(det /3. car)(yest. /.. -!a3.)
_ Ynan . . - - - .3 .. . the Iernduct- nf c:a h I w. itn c sucosin aml iti sc i . li c isoio 'o Ifir,t niometit ala.ut the nO1W m.ugin). "Nrtiint un m."
2 mon ?m 0 22sa?. 7tJ unno -
20rst 27/t 2 avtti Jal.*7t?J - days" are calcuhttral in a isadar pianncr. frma the s.s a t w 24m 2'.:Pr 67N. 249 AsG1 -
n are :in dala.
22'n 2'Iva 13. wa..C:) 212 W r2 -
20 0 21Vi 24.C7 sit *. 7J's 7r.s72 - Table !!illu tratc4 the pp.il-e asul the nc idtn.g n. 4, :.f t ..'
INiu lives ;/,. cs t.t l 'Jil trac 7 -
ligure for the nc;;atn e nurcin portion of the dat.t r.: 4 al-. -
trans 179.s 4. IG IG7 inatG -
14t s p I T.Mi 42 tEtt?9 I?J II;73 . coercepondini; f:gure for the po-itis c portanut <,, . a L, c .1, ... .i..
12m 1D 30.1173* SO 22191 -
type of data rats he ilevci..gu-d frir pat ticipar.t* in 2 p w r* -- '
s r.I t 600 7M8 7.7 N I I W c, - equi'We "3 IN
. O' N"i*
aHurat:on #'"U"#"I' of sapucity "'"k Uf'*E. eNn s-N.-
re-len-+sutv "
t 4rn 24 4.21T!* 4.20*.24 o1 bers.The po-itive su caratt- :av total for er is n r*.J. r es.d.:a s-ago- n2 1
a O
3'.,0
!$3 2.141G4 1.trym 3.tNM 3.s4429 0.1 lu. s abihty to he,p.fcturr ipedet:t:a! im.tidait rain ' e .. p ./e t 1 - 200 -1 0. 477 a 0 st?.30 1.2 rotgawr.tt-(tay v.dac can Im n cd tu es.tiua:e h.. i.!~ ..e a
- 4rt - 201 020Wt U.W74 S others (I.ote stial usci. hv pteper di= tid e.f rt el . .
- 600 -4M 0 Osra 0.13r.7 3..9 *poimhd'.ty,it in teedh in nW-e the IU.ition .ip ti, s Pe .t v ?
rati".
- -wat -Cal 0 03273 0 0*,10s 19 5
- 4 - 1(F31 -W1 0 01 01 0 014t3 54.1 cach parWs connintwi to the ;.reup re-m e pu . vr a : .-
- t i 14 5 $#" ' 8 '" "
j -ICT - 14n t 0 C%t, 0.tu.nn - tive rne,;aivatWlay va ues orpul to that wr ec.u d the 9ts.
, - I SM - 3 6'11 o u0014 0 wil3 -
totics.
3
- 20i s) - l %n t 0fuent 0.Uwe -
! -2:;tus -2mt. u tum u U(xast ms un The CAPCO pv:p utth:c the iamta: n- tk- I . ;- f* e.
1
- 240u - 2.m t u inmi n.tunt -
.igning capacity re-pon J,Ja) ana.n: ti e nn.a', : ' . ihrv conanitted scnoath: J tunt , t*ti:itit;vn of thi , :dat : 13 to .- ,
% nique wi!! crnhtate e.ah inciulwr** Nd :tuata, ai.d ti . 4 [
TAlt!.1: !! of steneratiir,t r:.pacity Ltu.a 1 run;dit it:to the ;m er p ... i liventucteu.N rkw: Pyst:uest.{. unine ring Yesi r, In crder to aibrate tl.e junitir comn:it'ed pm.; una c' -. O Pote s era t i. l s -
rath po:! anenher', P. .\* ratic is equal tu ria;t u.ht r e e nJ - -
MW Frerp.cury Fir t hucts O!W day.)
P/N ratio, the CAP'/O grm:p underW c- 4 ;mitn! '
-ru -
f h!ar;t in Ofagycar) tien of each raen.ber nu ri hy1.othetivid@ it.de; e <- + L. - .
i A. 3 !2.21bleive MW !by vf Potential Centn!,utine, This computat.un not oniy cvamate, dirce:!y the :, ... ny of .
35 0.0 00 pee e w as hul and raracuy Situnt:e I,4: ..f-o a ve, . . .
30 4.0 120.0 attachin: a pen.dty to the nien.ber for 1cIgn; !.. t*.- y.
25 18 5 4G24 poch (Th.* disr s-ion to Iv%w wi.1 rinrify the pc.nt) A re-rc. v 20 44 0 960.0 .
i 33 on n go.n evaluati0n with re*pNt tu a n.cadtar - -y tern :- trah . ' :. -
10 52.0 520.0 member had operated mdepen<iently over a steen tane t e: .
e l y in the CAPCO ;:r.mp, an anyation d na p.a.d.. romn :qt ;
generatin; cape. city i heade era carli of the ta:.it , - . n'- ; s-tocen in-service dats nf auth : nato Fur esan t.!c. C \P'.O +
B. 60.5 Neptne MW Iny- of Ncntml t*** period C estende 14 menth : frmn tha Hannot it. m , .-.in
-3 7.A - 37. .
- 10 34 -300 ' h* " 'd id I"Ut b.^ I".' k' 3 ' EW 8 L C ' ~., O-
- 15 0.6 -9.0 tertkr ah.tr of the thndt wlinat. Mcairr Vai!cv No. I 4. ao . -
- 20 0.0 00 1,19*3). Ddmite the tiair pet al imn tmn t<,\tn:t ri,J.. !
- * * * * **"~ ' * * * ' "
- lir,;au ht! aU.,Lat10tf If*gaen*shuffy tfe I.c *per thl s. c.n h n
- P/N = Contnbutu.n. t.-e - 7: 10. b cufn! nit!tsh Ihr d.': dv. thi alq1.Lirli inputr tLs' t,s t
I of the -ucerethug rrnnatina inns be c.tabh hed in o.: 9, n. . . .
these quantitics n nica mr- of a .3-tc*n' necil for an.1 alnl.ty- dn :d!" ration, a.M it se-enn did ') alb atal 'ady n ' ' :. l 10 provide http, it h nor -uy tu rmenire the di:Tr tner, that of Ihi. nest unit i-c ubh tal.
4 can exid frnns unc .s teen to anett.cr in the di trd ut.on and A ha Intu .tatcd, a b.ilwihri cal huiverintent vvAE .c i -
mahcup of the negitne and 1 %. itis c near.au *t.ectrmn . Thoe be nude un enth pu-l n.cuder 3 inn. T1.e !<.n wi-: .s
. duTercurcs are in tarse una-ure attrantable tu duierruce, in .tiaightforwant in that she n :rpemient lek-linat system sisc, but arc al-a retainl to the inymrtant, tsar.ai.rter* of cun c , ab.ng 6th cA r. ani n .nthly pen to ul- f..t ca. :. n . .
geneniting i it 4 . randum out.ue rate. I ud chnracteti-aics, bet' ,3 tem, :ne devel.. pol int rath n.onth of the ah.at..o e a and snainteanner practice . For h-tante, a very larv *v tem penod.Tlie rap.n a v n.o.tch how es cr. bc u dwu ion t.,i .....c ri .
nmy be cap.dde of incurring capacity eleficiencisw, and thn have . CAITO gn np ha iho-en to hand:e tu a tuajor part- ut .t a need for lirip, in magmtuJes up in cveral thearawl mexiuatt- ,ipeficant mannrr; n .na ly. the a -q:nn vnt of j..n.tiv t.a..u
. (which mi::ht le erveral ti nc: the nminuun anaamt that a rap a rty in r:u h n. cud.n"- cap.n dy hornp .uul the h,s ;.~.inen. 4 l
. anucle onnJirr optem wuld pa--.bly nymrs;). In additiun to the us pcmlent numterunte -thnialt , i n'
D D . ,
a.
gy l l
IWL - _ -
l
e
^ i9 i t .*
l
- l Ilha nau run u ru..u sw rose n sresnurn up overun, weer 1903 i TAlif.11 Ill .
sr.s tr . am.a . . , . . (talW Pun..a h Pn.. ft s s taru n r A smwni4 m.a. (\.tw) - . am m. - -- . - _.u. . , n::ar
% Clevelas I13utne Itinn.nutsair. Du.ym.nn thLr, t th:.. Cli,.n. T.. Inh. I".h..a.
l t
CAPC'l Uni 8' 2813 Pr"ent L U Pertrat frl.7 Perecut M.4 Perient No. I G7*. IM 170 27,0 40 3
i No. 2 GM 11", 170 2 53 M No. 3 M 81 ' tug 21f* 38"o 70 No. 4 v.9 3 10 215 ;rto c lNel 71Q TE &LJG 2jQ
- J.4nity comrnitted genmeirca capar
- ty is to 1.e a!!ocated to 4
e<psahze the F/N ratim of :dl ll.c member *. Ti.c unit t!;cawives 3re tos ias;;e to he incindel a h"av on ans one menAcr'. canuity nulet, the ju.r.:lc er nnat:ed CPCO unit i.euq nm! niative ,3, ;
to the mea! CAPCO ;.r.ripL:..I to take aA anta:;e .J erenomy of l c t.
j scale. Tu nanbte the nuni n . inuhhty th t evu member has
- eith n pr. to cach jan.tc. c .n. 9tted C\PCU umt, a p 4; or- noom .
! ti< mate *h.ne e4 carli CAPCU .m *. i4 3+ atnM to each n.csober's ,
hv}>othuical mdependent ap:.6.ty n.eleh Por esainp!c. in the 3 . C ---
CAP ( 0 tune period D t..cre are ! cur CAPCO mut* :ntalm;::E0 2 800 '
n~ '
31W cf n'et rate.1 capneity: 4 .
- no .
11 CAPCO No. I, Sannui. No. 7. G:3 3tw *
- 2) CAPCO No. 2, C.etL*e Na.3, tm '..lW I
- 3) CAPCO No. 3, luver W.'ry No.1, sG alw . ...
- 4) CA PCO No. 4, (Tpedo Ed:on), CJ .\!W ;*"
s' liy an iterative proer , c<turJ PfN ratic fu'r each member tvere E 7' -
' strived at by whJn; a pr.,pors.nate ehare ef mh CAPCO 3
- unit to cach hypt :etical espac:ty mo.ici. Within the CAPCO y l grenip,this technique is referred to as a n;emlieri" pro rata" nhar: gm 6
~
I* ' 8-of jointly com:mtted raprn y. p aiilli vnte t in T dsk III, the rnegawatt portions of each CAPC0 unt are roand.d to the zwar- j ,
est 3.TIW. too ,
Toledo Edica's capacity mc-le!, for cun ple, consts of itt #
independently ownad umr*, wah mh machin2 an:-.:e.! its L- ff" appropriate ra . dom cuta49 r.tte, phis fear CAPC0 units, each '{ 7,7,f
- unit being auiped the apprgr:a t,: ranca:n cuta;c rate a, sons ted with the parti n:ar CAPC0 mit. P.y c'aan;ir.;:ach member's pro 41 N -** * *
- d N U
- ity. Pool rata thare of a!! CAPCO u ti:s in smre'five s:ep* a solut:on for equal P/N ratios can be.ic'ir mr -J (l*g. :D o that the total nf all members' prerata . hare crical the :ntal wouni of capacity _ dependent P/N ndutioc, each member will estract from tM to lie ,qlkeared G%3 MW 5.r the CAPCO :peng m inne perw.d CAPCO nmster sc.hae 'br.t uu.mtenamc f.:.r wh:ch ho :. .x.
Di. It shouki be noted th at the trera'a r::p.ne:ty a >c.nic,es ;., spon &ie. The :nember ilma frecir n arran.n the me.inio . :.:.3 .
inw!! rated in Tame !!! for in.i?. nit. t miits do nat s.ceenanly bear 6mm; e if his systern were indcretahct.t. A n-enert. ;cy -....
. any relation to netaal ownct. hip. The total n:c :au att assi*;nn.cnt hti.ty .so anchas hts ;unrata urc uf the J.4ntly cemv .g of all joint!r comuutted capacity represents the number of CAPCO dmte. Witu this approad the in.irrenilent pic.hd.;. .
na-:awatts for which the individaal party bears financial re. cratuatem '.vi!! cTutably ec::cet inc epu!i's . . .a-h menJrri ,.
an..n ih.lity. pacity centnhutian to the p.ol, rather tLm p-: alum; us.jw.cy Karh menAeri capintv mc=lelis ru whlie.1.hirin the v.uinus penalizin hiin for hemg a member of ahe cal'CO ;n.up. 3 s.uintet:aute poind< to 1.n.ubte it pianced nuintenai.ec re-
,;=.n4ilahty, ligu ever, it m en!.I not he fair to re guire cach mrtu.
C""""
ber to fuP.uw the umt mamienance tunu.,: .*pmne.1 in the fully The authors lxlicse that the forr:: Ja.: meth.=ls prnr.it inega
.h..rdinatol CAPO) nunt.senance rehc.hde. Por cumple. Tw!deo comprehen*ive evahuts.n .4 the aNh:3 of a pirm of rap.,cuy E.liauN 014 31W llay Shwe No. 4 imit is a.reben Ay small urat, re curera to ne c e y'l.ud r+ ably, wl ni thea. matt.id.crE.
., s. far as CAPCO i. concerred, aml ap nerally w Ji 1 e nuintained dence of tlut optem ut=m out. ir n -amer , than ha herettEra
- 1, sing heas v ;n ul period 4 Ilowcret, for N!cda uti un's h3 p becu attaincil. The nu4 hat rrn .nie all the m.twtant pn ,. .
thetical mdependent co. hut'.m. anintainin.t it- lar;te t umt eter. that must he e n.mlen l mi the rumrus.mc.Ii nre n .
..lusimt heavy lead pe.nse. u..n!d m.ju ily penahre it. The imr. allou eshaustive esploraban of the rhet of riunge= in thra;2 q.-c of the h 3pntheti.at andwru&nt .Anlatwn is to evaluate geraincters.
- he lna l-carr} in: al dir3 id r u h s ic.nher'. ntu.ymert. Tlwrrfore, nd n b + 1.cen agfred that, fer the pmp. e .4 the h3 p.thetwat in. Thenanthan n inpai harbypuufurthe rr iw! mcm r 1,el:rs r. e slut a new mrth..I m+yer i. ha,
- 0 T'af w eD)
{$ p m~ T g-a . S . k. LiLa
+
e e
e e e .. . . .
pomuruu. d at: r.tre e eines r rias.e.u.etste sus assigtss;
- 11 %
. 1,ilisy ognis IJs ... el.1...i- .4 en.In winal $artnlmtim.. .e mal nidiass>= runbren .re. al.c rei.mtisasiim of ihr P N rate. an. 4 espreint n.e".( !cl==d v erveea...ru v ar-=n c . the m.mt=.n sant.1 f adc 1e l.
a ..
lan :pl.liipas tee ll.e ,. .rus.2, II c nu lla l. elr en.i.o! duen! I (.y.Ca e
A! . t he andnr. m.lwsle ' hse f..r re.erve .n. h ,. !mrp . s
\,
s .. bve vi.W t.t ru-l.ed Wir s i.y.s.'a l.. b r
, prove tu he eguits s.nloa!4r f.n nila a are. , ecl.atol to engrarity s h, n,in .,in31.pici.i I,,s.1 m..tek T1n. re .b. m i n .l.un: .t.e . .
l P annin: 1. .\n. unit the r nre:pul 3 .h of raparsly sn.unicnante prar* erm eisle mirrtupe.ble be,d aph m..re p. eno uner. . sh i. a m.:
Lictie. taml espl natiuti asal c f.i lsh.lienrut of Hememurn criteri.e att ually hive ava.1 !.la d s hric ru.'r.1 re.a su o.a.. .as t he* .* r-grit}s rt*gart tu inst allnl rap.irst r for nienelarra ref a crmnalsn.alion nwns ou a . a.a-en 6 s w d m uuno.a.4 L e.
restsiction= sui ibt unhsgnati 4 interrutu tade !..:td. . = arppi. me. .
Ef*33b capscity reucuru wnai.1 a6ect ihe avaih* lay.4 ihe -tirpb.. m.ir:
AccowtJ.DCitrNT llave the snahnes can.htered the.e tuo sicm in ilw:r esaur"s ~
gin evsihistius.4 The antluq
- ui.Ji to se kismirdie ll.c impt.: tant contril.iation. Inmnn6 n the P N r:m hs. p ded In* e Ci Ie ef R. (. (. raft an.<l .\l. G. llm;;1n of the C!ncianel !!!ectn ' for erpuhama cr.paruv re-pon.ilaatv and in:ae f. r e.sa . .I 2
' e@y invenuaient ne p%,1 unet.. it .smM seem e cer.a vy it at t.
Illuminatm;; Crant..ny, in tune:tymtt .imi }irwiramraung for thef memhtr be au sie of the ,ensitivity of th., p r..u. ut +n 's rc. .- I digital et,momer (the <fa !v inasra apprmth to rc:crve atelyri- o ihs awumptinar med: m any e t-i'i rmr u, evut: % u .
and in <lvs eloping methtal, for apphateni of t!.e inhmque, da rent mm., orin:ua, et c P G imo syr. or m.-
2 #@CN';F' orders of rna nit.ide, depmam? o. 'he .ndivia.nt . n.1. e .
characterktiv. .%e. = r.n p'mn.ru sutu e esm. . m r e-.,
!! aft;riocas . reistively trirli ebn:e in. :.av. se.n. -l farre.i.. e - rc.m. s level, for a rh en ri..ne:r :yreara mu;J On6 ..iw i n.c r . .' .
[1] C. A Va-dt el N. T.Meit,. "in sp.n..sch if ne .ns1. <4 ,,,,,, g , .7, c: ,t wggj uy: onin g u,,,..c 3
ger.cesin.:.nin.
- g. ,g.,., 4. ,gy r.g gg, 93 .p. g 3, gg.,g u .a b .' .v ai ,
[2]AsAN.*snatu
.1; Cc a..in.'t.c*.M 6Wi .va
. .ttm . vt e
1.1 = M.ie
- r. 4p;.c4non erve tri sk4-J. re.m Janu cf ~ w>
srvremer.
ti s.n. ' t.u ip .d s3.*anJ' Tiv... /',s, r.-
cay entseinance cf tha syste.i se it.md r., * .
to gencintn.e enrauty prohWT .4/IT h.u.uai(Aare .
metno.in 1 'Sti Po*L paratus a,4 .Werms), v..h PJ. pir.1.ta-It.V,1100 Crbrunst '
It mouhl b? cf meerest. thretfer'. to **e ten . c h..iar in. ... .
IS$1.ec.). either a.:mr.r4 had er fsrae6c.eto ist** %. ~ l e - 11.e P ratios, and he:ve the pro: u: cna r;t y re.fi.-hi..t .c . .e c..:#.
the C.WCO semrwes t.2 F. :. 3. Ji..h rehter. h.n. e ' m .t Insirht inta ite b;;r.. of co..! n e t'rat can 1.c pL.e 2 . me n .-
the P/N ratin na an inda f..t as,%rg esrstny rt &a-" .ht:e. r . .
pool.
i Discussien In Hne with No hua efica at: mutme bad ens cts cesie f. .
I partirnfar future ya .r .3% u nhin ths CAPCO " p' x-e. e5.e rnechamsra W. CAPCO have for 21tenr: the er . hv r .y. .
C. S. Vasse11 ed ?f. Titberts Mr. r;rs, r.!crenc P.,ner wiec ' 'IC* 'J ll'3 *'a"' **def' I0' Idd """* I de '*" l **'d u .
Corpcrath,a. Nt e Yar!r N. Y.1 '04 e The sist? *e prraeu au chance in enylied er caparity so n.puen? And fny:rly.'#*? L:t :; '
' interestir.*
- ntcraian 3:.d att dat.a of 49tepis t .uch t! e e d. . ""**"**'O ** Y '*f "" 4 9 eus':crs had tirveI93 m {1'. In a trener me.ar to thst u d bv the .rers to th**e r2nnticn* "i e I hem in c.r...;y *~na t.f
- discursere in Jcvikpnt the < =psenv cdic:recy cu ve m thetr y..pr. Tb'."ird pres aanech of aban,wne; u esmeny-sta="ri pim ,
the be.ie cspaci'y :r. r:.n dWbi. .o.;. as rie*enud hare. riortrap "" * "U*C"'"#h'8N'"d3DF I'N.
- tha complete t.u.i/s cf du.y rip.sity instem ihy to ocent 4.n a
- power by. tem thwS.rmt n itxrn 3cer.
l We concur c:a&tcle nin h iM aisthors m f heir cortcation t hst tbe i' capacit y mar. n ai trit,.nmn @. T irovva- a mu-- rnara r es m2 A. L Feut @troit 6:n Coms cy. DetrNt. 31ich. Mt.& T +
ful and ccmoechetwive b.w.* fns evt.bsto.: gene stu : capletty re, very ntemur ; p;p;r :s q't.te urac.:* sita rerpatt to ** . fr.. ar .
quirement. than is obts.ah.c fu,ni either metnod*. 'ia . n esa:npe, c%pr*f.e.1 msth re.~.rd In s.loc.14n r4 tool mot c5.Wh. 2 .
this d6tediotwo ghes n..t o.dy the prob..htisty cf pc*.d,1, !=s ,J tmar.ri*.! res.aint bd;ty thatf. ;r cr..; ti e 8tvers! T:rt
- ti r. f- . ::
Icad,biit, even more emp..rtst.1, the s.snnus prvbshat es a ut.ated agreen' cat. It it fny ep.nen that !!c pr.netp'et Set ! art . here ire tyr asth the lo-. of di.Terent str.omeu nf :.nd. to the part:eg Mthan s peol.
'llina the rnpreity marrm d*u.tmm. like tt.e ar.pstity ddkkncy As the sutN rs state. &cir t.vtFed is rr.erely an exte%i..a .4 ex.. .
curve. prc61c. ths tresic. fer eyes::r.; pred.ctd *s atcra perren. ing rne. hod., i e , tw rJ43vi rt et: -), or lim.oi%gt, n+hn ance in ans .4 everd dm.re .ni. nr.i thewere sd..a. f..r a more Trair methr.d inm ,< u.so fm Ge -!ert of J:oh r v:... .r.ar a .
i intc!!q;eut .c!wn.m r.f truena ict r.L.nnne p irpe-c , above the enert < f rnnvhiy =*% tr. .p. as detett+ +;b-. t i .e .. . .
The cumps.nir- meh:1. I m e CAPPO a. q.-~nt have deemed <J.carmty racL%i. 'ter.ta-c of thu o ray provt.. sw.a v i.e .
that the P/N tr.tio r..es:. I a iih h.: rr.? uity m.teca c..a r.huiion um.e in-oimu, w oS ;e.. (n.edant d j.. ir3 tam :e.. t. . , .c r :. -
is the fnwa serimreful p.s ..fmer i t ev&Plu:.1 the aUvu.!mn of t,ds. .it eks p. ant, it ersy be nrpr. puate to rnane ihr fw. .n n . .
capacity re-pa rely ano. he meml-crs of s pn e.r y .;ng , .ervations with tect in ihe, ven9.t. rncHaml* se ti.s v sre .w ..
. group mch as C '.lW The c:!cetive u e ed tlu- ps: tr. e t. r, f,r a ever, by ti.e .cretal vr.n:Mes ,
ras.si sevesal .pias:n.nt Any es- mert hy the suthm ca the fi Mon.
ing iteme umad. therrf.ne, he n=l t -i;ful Fie. of al. ii.h wn' m the %a.e- pmi' approash so etw Jerrtep.
ment e f the n.mr. o c tpm ny m.orm thor.bune.n. : .1..s a ter th Ef*'[.h , h")'[ "( [ *[ ' .
tit 74 CA!Ttt gn-up m fiLk !. i. tL. a ,umg o ,a ti. 6t a vad.h.c p, .
tive marym (n.m nu, nwmb r i f ihr g:nup . n he fi,m u%n i v.,
the estens new..uy, in vict the p..: uve nurgma E4 .he nelwr { ant sue im-iudet juchads.I _ me. i b ..
meiml.cr* u n k no train-nu .n lame.t:. ... tat o cr. lf .m b hnnia. I "' E"'I*'*'a## intim sd webak,i m. h.
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is oLm.n. is.r tuun.e i wne r ivr AmFy Wime the . .nne ni n.. ;b .W: i;n . .
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- tran. unte.( uti:.n el.e Tim 13 p of nainti.mer . afe~! .e. '<.eg s ,9, L\1 Cd c..up = ut mt er.in.no . m Iwe 5:cc4*;.m. A trart.nu :n u W. n . . .4,,y u
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d seLuem CA1TO r.op tav..no wet t.:
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