ML18003A350

Nc Utilities Commission Order Adopting Encl Rept Future Electricity Needs for Nc:Load Forecast & Capacity Plan-1978 Dtd Dec 1978

ML18003A350
Person / Time
Site:	Harris
Issue date:	12/28/1978
From:	Webster S NORTH CAROLINA, STATE OF
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ML18003A352	List: ML18003A350 ML18017A468
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NUDOCS 7901100241
Download: ML18003A350 (10)

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STATE OP tiORTH CZ.IiOLXNA UTXLXTILS CON."iISSXON RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA DOCKET NO. E-100, SUB 32 BEFORE TIIE NOiRTH CAROLXNA UTXLITIES CO1'IICISSION In the Hatter of Investigation, Analysis, and ) ORDER ADOPTING 1978 REPORT Estimation of Future Growth ) FUTURE ELECTRICITY NEEDS in the Use of Electricity ) FOR NORT!I CAiiOLINA: LOM) and the Need for Future ) PORFCAST At1D CAPACITY Generating Capacity for ) PL?Ql 197 S North Carolina )

HEARD IN: Commission Hearing Room, Dobbs Building, 0 30 North Salisbury Street, Raleigh, North Carolina, Beginning Tuesday, February 7, 1978 BE1 ORE: ~

Chairman Robert K. Ko ger, Presiding; and Commissioners Ben E. Roney, Leigh H. Hammond, Sarah Lindsay Tate, Robert Pischbach, John N.

Winters, and Edward B. Hipp APPEAP&iiCES:

Por the Public Staff:

Jerry B. Pruitt, Chief Counsel, Paul - L.

Lassiter, Staff Attorney, Public Staff North Carolina Utilities Commission, Post Of ice Box 991, Raleigh, North Carolina 27602 For: The Using and Consuming Public Por the Intervenors:

Richard E. Jones, Associate General Counsel/

Carolina Power C Light Company, Post Office Box 1551, Raleigh, North Carolina 27602 Por: Carolina Power C Light Company Steve C. Griffith, Jr., General Counsel, Duke Power Company, 022 South Church Street, Charlotte, North Carolina 28202 For: Duke Power Company George H. Perguson, Jr., Attorney at Law; Duke Power Company, Post Office Box 2178, Charlotte, North Carolina 28211 Por: Duke Power Company Edgar H. Roach, Jr., Hunt on C Hilliams f Attorneys at Law, 707 East Hain St eetg Ricim;ond, Virg'ia 23219 For: Virginia Electric and Power Company VBM.l.osaka

~ 2 DOCKET NO. E-100, S 32 Thomas J. Bolch, Crisp, Bolch, Smith, Clifton Davis, Attorneys at Law, Post Office Box 751, Raleigh, North Carolina 27602 For: North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation David H. Permar, Hatch, Little, Bunn, Jones, Few 6 Berry, Attorne}>s at Law, Post Office Box 527, Raleigh, North Carolina 27602 For: The North Carolina Oil Jobbers Association Thomas E. Erwin, Attorney at Law, Post Office Box 928, Raleigh, North Carolina 27602 For: The Carolina Environmental Study Group, the Conservation Council of North Carolina, Inc., the League of Nomen Voters of North Carolina, Xnc., and the Joseph Le Conte Chapter of the Sierra Club llark E. Sullivan, Attorney at Law, 203 Loft Lanes $ 48g Raleigh, North Carolina 27609 For: The Carolina Environmental Study Group, the Conservation Council of North Carolina, Xnc., the League of Nomen Voters of North Carolina, Xnc., and the Joseph Le Conte Chapter of the Sierra Club Richard L. Griffin, Associate Attorney General, North Carolina Department of Justice, Post Office Box 609, Raleigh, North Carolina 27602 For: The Using and Consuming Public BY'HE CONtIXSSION: The General Statutes of North Carolina require that the Commission annually analyze and estimate the probable future growth in the use of electricity and the need for future generating capacity in North Carolina. G.S.62-110. 1 provides, in part, as follows:

"(c) The Commission shall develop, publicize, and keep current an analysis of the long-range needs for expansion of facilities for the generation of electricity in North Carolina, including its estimate of the probable future growth of the use of electricity, the probable needed generating reserves, the extent, size, mix and general location of generating plants and arrangements for pooling power to the extent not regulated by the Federal Power Commission and other arrangements with other utilities and energy suppliers to achieve maximum efficiencies for the benefit of the people of North Carolina, and bv shall consider such analysis in actint upon any petition an}>

utility for construction. Xn developing such analysis, the Commission shall confer and consult with the public in North Carolina, the utilities commissions or utilities agencies comparable of neighboring 'ates, the Federal

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DOCli~ET NO ~ 00 g 32 Power Commission, the Southern Growth Policies Board, and other agencies having relevant information and may participate as it deem useful in any joint boards investigating generating plant sites or the probable need for future generating facilities. In addition to such reports as public utilities may be required by statute or ru e of the Commi sion to file with the Coruaission, utility in North Carolina may submit to the Commission its proposals any'uch as to the future needs for electricity to serve the people of the State or the area served by such utility, and insofar as practicable, each

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such utility and the Attorney General may attend or be represented at any formal conference conducted by the Commission in developing a plan -"or the future recuirements of electricity for North Carolina or this region. Xn the course of making the analysis and developing the plan, the Commi sion shall conduct one or more public hearings. Each year, the Commission shall submit to the Governor and to the appropriate committees of the General Assembly a report of its analysis and plan, the progress to date in carrying out such plan, and the program of the Commission for the ensuing year in connection with such plan."

To assist the Commission in carrying out its responsibilities under G.S.62-110.1, the Public Staff developed an independent electric power demand forecast and generating capacity model for the major electric utilities providing public utility service in North Carolina. The Public Staff's report was filed with the Conmssion on December 15, 1977.

On November 29, 1977, the Commission issued its Order setting hearing and inviting participation in this docket.'

The Order provided that the results of the Public Staf f report, would be presented at a public hearing beginning on February 7, 1978, and that, at this hearing, the Commission would receive for consideration e>pert testimony from the electric utilities, private groups, and those individuals having a knowledge of electric demand forecasting and electric generation. The Order further directed Carolina Power 8 Light Company (CPGL) Duke Power Company (Duke)< and

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Virginia Electric and Power Company (VZPCO) to,publish notice of the hearing in newspapers throughout the State for four consecutive weeks.

Notices of intervention from the Public Staff and from the Attorney General of North Carolina were received

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and recognized by the Commission. The Commission also received petitions for intervention from the following parties:

CPCL, Duke, VEPCO, the North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation, the North Carolina Oil Jobbers Association, the League of Nomen Voters of North Carolina, Inc,, the Conservation Council of North Carolina, Iac., the Joseph Le Conte Chapter of the Sierra Club, and the Carolina Environmental Study Group, Inc. The Commission granted all

DOCliET HO. L'-100 i SUB 2 the petitions for intervention and mado the petitioners thereto parties of record in this proceeding.

The matter came on for hearing as scheduled on February- 7, 1978. The Public Staff presented the testimony and exhibits of the following witnesses: N. Edward Tucker, Jr., Public Staff Engineer in the Electric Division, who testified on areas of forecasting of future electric prices, developing customer class load iactors to be used in estimating future peak demands,- and analyzing the effects of alternate growth scenarios on the price of electricity; Thomas II. Kiltie, Public Staff Economist, who testified on his preparation of peak, demand projections by examination of .alternative econometric peak load models and the commercial sector econometric K%I xorecasts for CPt'L and Duke; Edwin A.

Rosenberg, Public Staf f Economist, who testified on the econometric estimation of the industrial usage of electricity; Dennis J. Nightingale, Public Staff Engineer in the Electric Division, who testified on noneconometxic load forecasting and supply configuration deve opment; Daniel D.

Iiahoney, Economist with the Research and Planning Section of the Division of State Budget anQ Panagement in the North Carolina Department of Administration, who testified in support of the forecasting procedures and methodology utilized in producing the long-tarn forecast of State economic activity and incorporated in the Public Staff 's report; Thomas S. Zlleman, Professor and Head of the Nuclear Engineering Department at North Carolina State University, who testified on alternative energy sources and nuclear reactor safety; and Brian M. Flattery, Director of the Energy Division of the Department of Commerce, who test'fied concerning actions which State government has taken to promote conservation and alternate energy sources. The Public Staff, by affidavit, submitted the testimony of Dennis N. Goins, formerly a Public Staf f Economist, whose testimony described the methodology and re"ults contained in the residential forecast portion of the Public Staff's report.

Duke Power Company presented the testimony of the following witnesses: Nilliam S. Lee, Executive .Vice President of Duke Power Company, who testified concerning Duke's planned construction program for 1985 and beyond and why Duke has elected not to change the planned in-service dates for the IlcGuire and Catawba nuclear units; Donald H.

Denton, Jr.', Vice President - Marketing, who described Duke's load management program and its impact on future generating requirements; David Rea, Manager of Forecasting anQ Budgets, who testified on Duke's system peak load and sales forecasts; and Donald H. Sterrett, Manager of System Planning, who testified on the generating capacity additions scheduled for the Duke ser'vice area in the context of anticipated future growth of the Duke system.

The North Carolina Electric ."ler.bor hip Corporation (EMC) pxesentcd the .testimony of the xollowing witnc se : Alton P. thrall, Executive Vice President and Gcncral Manager of

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DOCKET NO. E-100g North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation, who testified concerning the E?IC's poorer supply plans; Patricia Lloyd Nilliams, EhIC, Sta ff Engineer, whose testimony described the procedures followed in the development of the Z'iC's recent Poorer Requirements Study and the projection of the E?:C's system demand and energy requirements; and Gerald O. Stephens, Supervisory Poorer Requirements Officer, Power Survey Reguiraments Staff, Rural Electrification Administrations {REA), United States Department of

'griculture, who testified that the North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation has submitted to the REA the Power Requirements Study as testified to by Patricia Nilliams.

Carolina Power G Light Company o'ffered the testimony of Nilson N. Morgan, hianager << System Planning and Coordination Department, who testified on CPCL's energy 'sales and peak demand forecast through 1997 and the methodology used to develop these forecasts.

Virginia Electric and Power Company offered the testimony of Gary R. Keesecker, hIanager of Powez Supply, who testified on VEPCO's methods of forecasting demand and energy requirements and the planning of new generation for the VEPCO system.

'he League of Nomen Voters of North Carolina, Inc., the Conservation Council of North Carolina, Inc., the Sierra Club, and the Carolina Environmental Study Group, Inc.,

offered the testimony and exhibits of Jesse L. Riley, a Senior Research Associate in the Research and Development Department of Celanese Fibers Company, who presented a criti'que o f various forecasting methodologies and described a new methodology, with the results and the applicability of that methodology to future generating mix.

CP"L and Duke jointly sponsored Robert II. Spann, Associate Pro fessor of Economics at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, who testified in rebuttal to the forecast methodology propounded by Riley.

The following public witnesses appeared and testfied at the hearing: (1) John Narren, (2) Brad Stuart, (3) Helen Reed i (4) Joseph Reinckens, (5) Arthur Kaufman, (6) Slater Newman i (7) Tom Lominac, (8) Dr. Lavon Page, (9) David Springaz, (10) Dr. David Martin, (11) Lloyd Tyler, (12)

S tephanie Rodelander, ( 13) Pam Thornton, (1 )

<1 Nilliam Richardson, (15) John Speights, (16) Alvin Moss, (17)

Kathleen Zobel, (18) An Painter, (19) Hotrard Morland, (20)

Karen Nilson, (21) Jack Ashburn, (22) Bonnie Shriver, (23)

Dr- Nilliam Nalker, (20) Dz. Constance Kalbach, (25) Jim Darrow, and (26) Thomas Gunter. In addition, John Curry appeared on behalf of Senator McNeill Smith and presented to the Commission a statement prepared by Senator Smith.

For the purpose of preparing its 1978 report, the

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Cormission has considered the tcs'tinny and e::hibits presented at the hearing in this docket and the information

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contained in the files and records of the Commission. The Commission has also ta}:en judicial notice of the evidence presented in the July and September 1970 hearings in Doc}:et No. I }-100, Sub 78, entitled Investigation of Cost-Based Rates, Load Haqagement, and Conservation Oriented End-Use Activities."

Based upon the'evidence presented in Docket No. N-100, Sub 78, the Commission in the ordering paragraphs below will

.order CPCL, Duke, and VEPCO to file, within 270 days after the date of this Order, detailed plans for the imolementation of two load management proqrans: the utility

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control of residential water heating and the ut'ility control of. specified interruptible industrial loads. Both programs would be offered on a voluntary basis. The guidelines for these two programs are set out in the ordering paragraphs; if the filings of the three ut:ilities differ from the recownendations of the Public Staff set out in its proposed order filed November 20, 1978, in Docket No. 1!-100, Sub 78, such filings should contain appropriate justification. The Commission will also order CPCL, Dul:e, and VEPCO t:o file on an experimental basis voluntary rates incorporating tim -of-day pricing to those customers who install thermal storage ecuipment, when used in connection with solar equipment, or installed separately, or a'combination of the two for the purpose of providing space heatinge In Docket No.11-100, Sub 78, the Public Staff has filed a proposed order and the electrir. utilities have filed responses thereto. The Comr~ssion will issue an order in this docket at an early date.

Based upon the testimony and exhibits presented at the hearings in this docket, and in Doc}.et No. M-100, Sub 78, the information contained in the files and records of the Cor11.ission, and the Pindings of Pact set out in its Report, the Commission concludes that it should adopt its report entitled Future Electricity-Needs for North Carolina'. Load Forecast and ~Ca acit Plan 1978.

IT IS THEREPORE ORDERED:

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1.

acit Plan

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Ehat the report of th.e Consnission ent:itled Future

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1978 includinp itFrsndings and Conclusions, is hereby adopted.

2. That the load forecasts and capacity plans included as Tables A and B in the above referenced Report are hereby adopted as the plan of the Cora@i sion, subject to the conditions stated in the Report.

3. That Virginia Electric and Power Company shall present to the Comnission in the mid-1979 hearings on load growth and capacity planning a detailed analysis of VEPCO's load growth and required capacity addition plans. The

DOCEET i10. E-100, SUE 2 Staff is requested to develop and present a separate analy is of these matters.

That Carolina Power 6 Light Company, Du):e Power Company, and Virginia Electric and Power Company shall, with'n 270 days after the date of this Order file detailed plans for the implemen ation of two load management programs:

1. Utility control of residential water heating; and Utility control of specified interruptible industrial loads'The implementation plans to be filed shall include:

1. Provisions for voluntary customer participation in these programs,

2. A description of the load management equipment to be usedg

3. Detailed time schedules for impler.entation,

4. Proposed rate schedules and tariff ,provisions including limitations on interruptions,

5. An implementation date no later than January 1, 1980, in the area of greatest density served by each utility,

6. Plans for extending the offerings to other areas, and 7~ Rate incentives, implementation plans, and provisions of interruption (maximum length and number of interruptions, etc.), which are to be developed and filed by each utility; however, if these filings differ from those proposed by the Public Staff in

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Docket No. ll-100, Sub 7G, such filings should include appropriate justification.

5. That Carolina Power 6 Light Company, Du] e Power Company, and Virginia Electric and Power Company shall file voluntary rates incorporating time-of-day pricing to those customers who install thermal storage equipment, when used in connection with solar equipment, or installed separately, or a combination of the two for the purpose of providing space heating. The rate schedules shall be cost justified and shall be filed on an experimental basis with appropriate contract time designated, between the utility and the customer, sufficient to allow the customer an incentive to

<<8 DOCKET NO. E-100, SUB 2 adopt such a rate in connection vith his sol.ar/thermal storage installation.

ISSUED BY ORDER OP THE COhÃISSIOI1.

This the day of December, 1978.

NORTH CAROLI';1A UTILITIES CO3111ISSION Sandra J. Webster, Chief Clerk (SEAL)