ML19011A418

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Background - References
ML19011A418
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Issue date: 01/16/2019
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Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
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Nathan Siu 415-0744
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ML19011A416 List:
References
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1 References1 Nuclear Power Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) Massachusetts Institute of Technology Independent Activities Period January 16-23, 2019 Aldemir, T. (ed.), Advanced Concepts in Nuclear Energy Risk Assessment and Management, World Scientific Publishing Co (2018). (Available from: https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/10587) -Design-Basis Earthquake Affecting the Commission, June 2013. (ADAMS ML13133A132) NUREG/CR-2300, January 1983. 1/Large Early Release Frequency Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plant ASME/ANS RA-Sa-2009, Addendum A to RA-S-2008, ASME, New York, NY, American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park, Illinois, 2009. American Society for Mechanical Engineers and American Nuclear Society Joint Committee on https://cstools.asme.org/csconnect/CommitteePages.cfm?Committee=100186782 Andersen, V.M., EPRI 3002000709, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, December 2013. Apostolakis, G., Nuclear Safety, 9, 305315, 1978. Apostolakis, G., Science, 250, 13591364, 1990. NUREG-2150, U.S Nuclear Regulatory Commission, April 2012. Apostolakis, G. cNuclear Science and Engineering, 70, 135-149, 1979. Atwood, C.L., NUREG/CR-6823, September 2003. 1 The following are a small subset of the vast literature on nuclear power plant PRA and RIDM.

2 Barlow, R.E. and F. Proschan, Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing: Probability Models, Second Edition, To Begin With, Silver Spring, MD, 1975. Barriere, M., NUREG/CR-6093, June 1994. AHSB (S) R159, UKAEA, 1969. Nuclear Reactor Safety, Academic Press, London, 1977. Safety and Reliability Directorate, June 28, 1983. Bier, V.M. (ed.), Accident Sequence Precursors and Probabilistic Risk Analysis, University of Wisconsin Press, Madison, WI, 1998. Bier, V.M., et al., Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence, Committee on Precursors, National Academy of Engineering, National Academies Press, New York, 2004. Birkhofer, IAEA Bulletin, 22, No. 5/6, October 1980. Bixler, N., -of-the-Art Reactor NUREG/CR-7009, August 2014. Blackman, H., N. Siu, and A. Mosleh, Human Reliability Models: Theoretical and Practical Challenges, Center for Reliability Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 1998. Box, G.E.P. and G.C. Tiao, Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1973. Bratley, P., B.L. Fox, and L.E. Schrage, A Guide to Simulation, Second Edition, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1987. Bye, A., Phase 2 Report: Results from Comparing HRA Method PredNUREG/IA-0216, Vol. 2, August 2011. Chang, Y.J. Proceedings International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 13), Seoul, Korea, October 2-7, 2016.

3 Chu, T.L., Operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of Core Damage Frequency from Internal Events During Mid-NUREG/CR-6144, Vol. 2, June 1994. Chu, T.L., NUREG/CR-6144, Vol. 1, October 1995. Covello, V.T. OPA-87-020, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1988. -2016. (ADAMS ML16105A427) Dang, V.N., D.L. Deoss, and N. Siu, "Event simulation for availability analysis of dynamic systems," Transactions of the Eleventh International Meeting on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology, Tokyo, Japan, August 18-23, 1991, Volume M, pp. 31-36. Dang, V.N., Phase 3 Report: Results from NUREG/IA-0216, Vol. 3, December 2014. Downer, J.a: managing the credibility of nuclear reliability assessment in Regulation and Governance, Wiley, 2013. Downer, J.The Ethics of Nuclear Energy: Risk, Justice, and Democracy in the Post-Fukushima Era, B. Taebi and S. Roeser (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 2015. Draxler, R., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, April 7, 2018. (Available from: https://www3.epa.gov/scram001/9thmodconf/draxler.pdf) Droguett, E. Risk Analysis, 28, No. 5, 1457-1476, 2008. -Related Terms in Support of Risk-Informed NUREG-2122, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, November 2013. Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk-Informed DecisionmakingNUREG-1855, Rev. 1, March 2017. Dull, P.S., A Battle History of the Imperial Japanese Navy (1941-1945), Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, MD, 1978. Electric Power Research Institute and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear -

4 EPRI 1011989 and NUREG/CR-6850, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, 2005. Electric Power Research Institute and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Regulatory ResearchSupplement 1 to NUREG/CR-EPRI 1019259 and NUREG/CR-6850 Supplement 1, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, 2009. Guidance for Radiological Incidents, EPA-400/R-16/001, November 2016. Fischhoff, B.Risk Analysis, 15, 137145, 1995. Fischoff, B., Perception and Performance, 4, No. 2, 330-344, 1978. Flatow, I., -(Available from: https://thehumanist.com/magazine/november-december-2012/features/truth-deception-and-the-myth-of-the-one-handed-scientist) Fleming, K.N., Proceedings Sixth Annual Pittsburgh Conference on Modeling and Simulation, Pittsburgh, April 23-25, 1975. Fleming, K.N., --6813, April 2003. Rates: Where Do the Numbers Come th Probabilistic Safety Analysis and Human Factors Assessment Forum, September 17-18, 2014. Fleming, K.N. and A.M. Kalinowski, "An Extension of the Beta Factor Method to Systems with -0289, June 1983. EPRI 1019194, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, December 2009. Microbiological Risk Assessment Series, 17, Rome, 2009. Forester, J., et aNUREG-1842, September 2006.

5 Forester, J., NUREG-2127, August 2014. NUREG-2156, June 2016. Fuchida, M. and M. Okumiya, Midway: The Battle that Story, U.S. Naval Institute, Annapolis, MD, 1955. Nuclear Technology, 84, No. 3, 319339(1989). Gertman, D., -H Human NUREG/CR-6883, August 2005. Gifford, I., C. Hunter, and Gorbatchev, A., Proceedings of EUROSAFE 2000, Cologne, Germany, November 6-7, 2000, Gesellschaft für Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) Gmbh, Cologne, Germany, 2000. ee on the Accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Granger Morgan, M., National Academy of Sciences Proceedings (NASP), 111, No. 20, 7176-7184, May 20, 2014. Green, A.E. and A.J. Bourne, Reliability Technology, Wiley-Interscience, London, 1972 NUREG/CR-6042, Revision 2, March 2002. Transactions Institute of Chemical Engineers, 77, Part B, 117-142, May 1999. Regulatory Commission, May 2009. (ADAMS ML091320447) Training Course P111: PRA Technology and Regulatory Perspectives, Module S, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. (ADAMS M12160A497) Fontenay-aux-Roses, France, January 2000. (Available from: http://www.irsn.fr/FR/expertise/rapports_expertise/Documents/surete/rapport_sur_l_inondation_du_site_du_blayais.pdf) 6 FINPO 11-005, Atlanta, GA, 2011. IAEA SSG-3, 2010. International Atomic Energy AgIAEA SSG-4, 2010. STI/PUB 1710, Vienna, Austria, 2015. International Atomic Energy Agency, https://www.iaea.org/resources/safety-standards InternatioINSAG-25, International Atomic Energy Agency, 2011. -NRC Commissioner Speech S-98-26, 26th Annual Water Reactor Safety Meeting, October 26, 1998. (ADAMS ML003711267) Kahneman, D. and P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1982. Kaplan, S. and B.Risk Analysis, 1, 1137(1981). Kato, I., the Closest Boiling Water Proceedings Symposium on the Future of Nuclear Power, University of Pittsburgh, March 27-28, 2012. Available from https://www.thornburghforum.pitt.edu/sites/default/files/Nuclear%20Symposium%20report%20FINAL%20report%2011_5_12.pdf Proceedings International Conference Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 14), Los Angeles, CA, September 16-21, 2018. Kazarians, M., N. Simethodological developments and applications, Risk Analysis, 5, 33-51, 1985. and its use in the nuclear power industry: a tribute to the late Professor Norman Carl Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 89, 271-285, 2005. Kletz, T.A., Improving Chemical Engineering Practices: A New Look at Old Myths of the Chemical Industry, Second Edition, Hemisphere Publishing, New York, 1990.

7 Kolaczkowski, A., NUREG-1792, April 2005. Kumamoto, H. and E.J. Henley, Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists, Second Edition, IEEE Press, New York, 1996. Lane, J., operational experience data collection ppresented at NEA Workshop on the Use of Operational Experience in PSA, Boulogne-Billancourt, France, April 26-27, 2018. (ADAMS ML18123A479) Lewis, S. -RES Fire Human Reliability Analysis Guidelines: Final EPRI 1023001/NUREG-1921, July 2012. NUREG/CR-0400, September 1978. Lindeman, A. -RES Fire Human Reliability Analysis Guidelines EPRI 3002009215/NUREG-1921, Supplement 1, August 2017. Lois, E., Phase 1 Report: Description of Overall Approach and Pilot Phase Results from Comparing HRA Methods to Simulator Performance NUREG/IA-0216, Vol. 1, November 2009. Lydell, B., K.N. Fleming, and J.-F. Roy, Analysis of possible aging trends in the estimation of piping system failure rates for internal flooding PRAProceedings of 14th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 14), Los Angeles, CA, September 16-21, 2018. Marble, J.L., -informed regulatory decision-Proceedings International Conference on Probabilistic Safety and Assessment (PSAM 11/ESREL 2012), Helsinki, Finland, June 25-29, 2012. (ADAMS ML120480139). McGrattan, B., NUREG/KM-0003, 2013. McIntyre, T.J. and N. Siu, "Electric power recovery at TMI-1, a simulation model," Proceedings of the International ANS/ENS Topical Meeting on Thermal Reactor Safety, San Diego, California, February 2-6, 1986, pp. VIII.6-1 through VIII.6-7. st Century: The Near-Term Task Force Review of Insights from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Accident, July 12, 2011. (ADAMS ML111861807) Minarick, J.W. 1969--2497, June 1982.

8 Moieni, P., -based human rProceedings ANS , Clearwater Beach, FL, January 26-29, 1993. Mosleh, A., et al., "Procedures for Treating Common Cause Failures in Safety and Reliability Studies," NUREG/CR-4780, Vol. 1, January 1988. Mosleh, A., et al., "Procedures for Treating Common Cause Failures in Safety and Reliability Studies," NUREG/CR-4780, Vol. 2, January 1989. Mosleh, A., et al., Model Uncertainty: Its Characterization and Quantification, Center for Reliability Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 1995. (Also available as NUREG/CP-0138) Plenary Talk, International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 11/ESREL 2012), Helsinki, Finland, June 25-29, 2012. (Available from: http://www.iapsam.org/www.psam11.org/www/fi/program/PSAM11-ESREL_2012_CL-Fr4_Ali_Mosleh.pdf) Mosleh, A. and N. Siu, "A multi-International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland, August 17-21, 1987. Musicki, Z., et al., "Evaluation of Potential Severe Accidents During Low Power and Shutdown Operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of Core Damage Frequency from Internal Fires During Mid-Loop Operations" NUREG/CR-6144, Vol. 3, July 1994. NASA/SP-2014-615, November 2016. ear Accident -Based Standard for Fire Protection for Light NFPA 805, 2001 Edition, Quincy, MA, 2001. (Available through the NFPA Online Catalog at www.nfpa.org) NFPA 551, 2013. National Institute of Standards and Technology, Annual Text Analytics Conference (https://tac.nist.gov/) National Research Council, Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society, P.C. Stern and H.V. Fineberg (eds), National Academies Press, 1996.

9 National Research Council, Lessons Learned from the Fukushima Accident for Improving Safety of U.S. Nuclear Plants, National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2014. Nowlen, S.P., Risk Methods Insights Gained fNUREG/CR-6738, September 2001. Shutdown and Low Power Safety AssessmentNEA/CSNI/R(93)19, Boulogne-Billancourt, France, November 1993. (Available from: http://www.oecd-nea.org/nsd/docs/indexcsni.html). NEA/CSNI/R(2003)11, Boulogne-Billancourt, France, 2003, (Available from: http://www.oecd-nea.org/nsd/docs/indexcsni.html). Improving Low Power and Shutdown PSA Methods and Data to Permit Better Risk Comparison and Trade-Off Decision-Making, Vols. 1-NEA/CSNI/R(2005)11/VOL1, NEA/CSNI/R(2005)11/VOL2, and NEA/CSNI/R(2005)11/VOL3, Boulogne-Billancourt, France, September 2005, (Available from: http://www.oecd-nea.org/nsd/docs/indexcsni.html). 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Kunreuther, Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence, Committee on Precursors, National Academy of Engineering, National Academies Press, New York, 2004 10 support and use of PRA and risk-informed December 19, 2013. (ADAMS ML13354B997) Poucet, A., EUR 1222 EN, Ispra Joint Research Centre, Commission of European Communities, August 1989. Pugh, M.C., "Probability Approach to Safety Analysis," TRG Report 1949, UKAEA, 1969. Rasmuson, D. -at Annual Meeting of NEA Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRISK), Paris, France, April 20, 2007. (ADAMS ML070990049) Raynaud, P., TLR-RES/DE/CIB-2018-01, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, September 14, 2018. (ADAMS ML18178A431) Risk Analysis, Special Issue on Nuclear Probabilistic Risk Analysis, 4, No. 4, December 1984. Rogovin, M. gulatory Commission Special Review Group, January 1980. Salley, M.H. (MARIAFIRES) NUREG/CP-0303, EPRI 3002005205, April 2016. Samanta, P.K., k-Based Analyses of Technical NUREG/CR-6141, December 1994. Shaney, L. EPRI 3002005287, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, October 2015. Singpurwalla, N.D., Reliability and Risk: A Bayesian Perspective, Wiley, Chichester, 2006. Siu, N., "A Monte Carlo method for multiple parameter estimation in the presence of uncertain data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 28, No. 1, 59-98, 1990. Siu, N., "Dynamic accident sequence analysis in PRA: a comment on 'Human Reliability Analysis - Where Shouldst Thou Turn?'," Technical Note, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 29, No. 3, 359-364, 1990. Siu, N., "Risk assessment for dynamic systems: an overview," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 43, 43-73, 1994. Siu, N., Fire Risk Assessment and Policy, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, December 2, 2015. (ADAMS ML15301A832) Development of a Methodology for Aggregation of Various Risk Contributors for Nuclear 11 y Agency, Vienna, Austria, April 10-13, 2017. (ADAMS ML17093A744) ANS International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA 2017), Pittsburgh, PA, September 24-28, 2017. (ADAMS ML17263B165) Siu, N., and G. Apostolakis, "A Methodology for Analyzing the Detection and Suppression of Fires in Nuclear Power Plants," Nuclear Science and Engineering, 94, 213-226, November 1986. Siu, N., NUREG/CP-0162, Vol. 2, 25th Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting Bethesda, MD, October 20-22, 1997. Siu, N. -Informed Regulatory Agency: Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management, T. Aven and E. Zio, eds., Wiley, 2018. Siu, N., Risk-U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 2017. (ADAMS ML17089A538) Siu, N., Nuclear Regulatory Commission, March 2017. (ADAMS ML17089A537) Siu, N., gy challenges revealed by the Great East Japan EarthquakeProceedings of PSAM Topical Conference in Light of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident, Tokyo, Japan, April 15-17, 2013. (ADAMS ML13038A203) ory Decisionmaking: Some Frequently NUREG-2201, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, September 2016. Siu, N., Proceedings of 13th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 13), Seoul, Korea, October 2-7, 2016. (ADAMS ML16245A822) Siu, N., et al.enterprise risk monitoring and managementon Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA 2017), Pittsburgh, PA, September 24-28, 2017. (ADAMS ML17268A021) Siu, N., Proceedings of 14th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 14), Los Angeles, CA, September 16-21, 2018. (ADAMS ML18135A109) 12 Siu, N., D. Karydas, and J. 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13 val System During Mid-NUREG-1410, June 1990. NUREG-1150, December 1990. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CP-0124, 1992. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Shutdown and Low-Power Operation at Commercial Nuclear Power Plants in the United States NUREG-1449, September 1993. NUREG-1489, March 1994. Nuclear ActFederal Register, 60, p. 42622 (60 FR 42622), August 16, 1995. NUREG-1560, December 1997. U.-informed and performance-based SECY-98-144, June 22, 1998. (ADAMS ML003753601) Technique for Human NUREG-1624, Rev. 1, May 2000. NUREG-1738, February 2001. tives Gained from the Individual Plant NUREG-1742, April 2002. -Besse Reactor Pressure Vessel Head Degradation: Overview, Lessons Learned, and NRC Actions Based on LNUREG/BR-0353, Rev. 1, August 2008. Probabilistic Risk Assessment Results for Risk-Regulatory Guide 1.200, Revision 2, March 2009. (ADAMS ML090410014) Inspection Manual Chapter 0609, June 2, 2011. (ADAMS ML101400479) NUREG-0933, Main Report with Supplements 134, latest version available from http://nureg.nrc.gov/sr0933/Introduction/Introductions.html, December 2011.

14 Inspection Manual Chapter 0410, October 4, 2012. (ADAMS ML12263A456) with PRAs in Risk-NUREG-1855, Revision 1, March 2013. Renewal of Nuclear PlantsNUREG-1437, Revision 1, June 2013. -Related Terms in Support of Risk-InfNUREG-2122, November 2013. (ADAMS Accession No. ML13311A353) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, The Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Fire of 1975 Knowledge NUREG/KM-0002, Rev. 1, February 2014. -Informed Decision-Making Process for Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Office Instruction LIC-504, Revision 4, June 2, 2014. (ADAMS ML14035A143) Management Directive 8.3, June 25, 2014. (ADAMS ML13175A294) Management Directive 6.4, January 15, 2015. (ADAMS ML14245A048) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissiRisk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Regulatory Guide 1.174, Revision 3, January 2018. (ADAMS ML17317A256) rn risk-SECY-18-0060, May 23, 2018. (ADAMS ML18110A187). Information Digest: 2018-2019NUREG-1350, Vol. 30, August 2018. (ADAMS ML18226A114). Principles of Good R (ADAMS ML14135A076) https://nrcoe.inl.gov/resultsdb/AvgPerf/ https://nrcoe.inl.gov/resultsdb/RADS/ -https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/regulatory/risk-informed/rpp.html https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/operating/oversight/program-documents.html 15 Vesely, W.E., NUREG-0492, January 1981. Vesely, W.E., et al., "Measures of Risk Importance and Their Applications," NUREG/CR-3385,1983. Vial, E., Proceedings of International Workshop on External Flooding Hazards at Nuclear Power Plant Sites, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board of India, Nuclear Power Corporation of India, Ltd., and International Atomic Energy Agency, Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India, August 29 September 2, 2005. -NUREG/BR-0175, October 2010. Technology and Culture, 58, No. 3, 678-721, July 2017. Whaley, A.M., NUREG-2114, January 2016. Whitehead, D.W., et al., "Evaluation of Potential Severe Accidents During Low Power and Shutdown Operations at Grand Gulf Unit 1: Analysis of Core Damage Frequency from Internal Events for Plant Operational State 5 During a Refueling Outage," NUREG/CR-6143, 1994. Wierman, T.E., -Cause Failure Database and Analysis System: Event Data NUREG/CR-6268, Rev. 1, September 2007. Winkler, R.L. and W.L Hays, Statistics: Probability, Inference and Decision, Second Edition, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, New York, 1975. Xing, J. ML16287A734) Xing, J., et Internal Events At-NUREG-2199, Vol. 1, March 2017. Zio, E. and N. Pedroni-hydraulic passive systeNuclear Engineering and Design, 241, 310-327, 2011