ML19011A420
| ML19011A420 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 01/16/2019 |
| From: | Nathan Siu Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research |
| To: | |
| Nathan Siu 415-0744 | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19011A416 | List:
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| Download: ML19011A420 (7) | |
Text
1 Nuclear Power Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM)
Nathan Siu Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Independent Activities Period January 16-23, 2019
Course Objectives and Approach
- Learning Objectives:
- Knowledge of basic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and risk-informed decision making (RIDM) concepts and the use environment;
- Exposure to and limited practice with nuclear power plant (NPP) PRA: modeling approaches, elements, and mechanics; critical thinking
- Awareness of PRA/RIDM history, recent developments and controversies, and future challenges
- Delivery via lectures (dual-purpose slides with some knowledge checks and thought exercises), workshops, discussion 2
Course Overview
General Design Day 1:
PRA Overview (The Big Picture)
Day 2:
Major Elements (Event Trees, Fault Trees, )
Day 3:
Dependencies (Risk Drivers)
Break Day 4:
Special Topics (Precursors, Case Studies, Infrastructure, Communication)
Day 5:
The Frontier (Challenges, R&D) 3 Course Overview
Schedule 4
Course Overview Wednesday 1/16 Thursday 1/17 Friday 1/18 Tuesday 1/22 Wednesday 1/23 Module 1: Introduction 3: Characterizing Uncertainty 5: Basic Events 7: Learning from Operational Events 9: The PRA Frontier 9:00-9:45 L1-1: What is RIDM?
L3-1: Probabilistic modeling for NPP PRA L5-1: Evidence and estimation L7-1: Retrospective PRA L9-1: Challenges for NPP PRA 9:45-10:00 Break Break Break Break Break 10:00-11:00 L1-2: RIDM in the nuclear industry L3-2: Uncertainty and uncertainties L5-2: Human Reliability Analysis (HRA)
L7-2: Notable events and lessons for PRA L9-2: Improved PRA using existing technology 11:00-12:00 W1: Risk-informed thinking W2: Characterizing uncertainties W4: Bayesian estimation W6: Retrospective Analysis L9-3: The frontier: grand challenges and advanced methods 12:00-1:30 Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch Lunch Module 2: PRA Overview 4: Accident Sequence Modeling 6: Special Technical Topics 8: Applications and Challenges 10: Recap 1:30-2:15 L2-1: NPP PRA and RIDM:
early history L4-1: Initiating events L6-1: Dependent failures L8-1: Risk-informed regulatory applications L10-1: Summary and closing remarks L8-2: PRA and RIDM infrastructure 2:15-2:30 Break Break Break Break 2:30-3:30 L2-2: NPP PRA models and results L4-2: Modeling plant and system response L6-2: Spatial hazards and dependencies L8-3: Risk-informed fire protection Discussion: course feedback 3:30-4:30 L2-3: PRA and RIDM:
point-counterpoint W3: Plant systems modeling L6-3: Other operational modes L8-4: Risk communication Open Discussion L6-4: Level 2/3 PRA:
beyond core damage 4:30-4:45 Break Break Break Break 4:45-5:30 Open Discussion W3: Plant systems modeling (cont.)
W5: External Hazards modeling Open Discussion 5:30-6:00 Open Discussion Open Discussion
Resources
- Key and enrichment documents cited for each lecture
- Many available through:
- public document collections accessible through the NRC website (http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/)
- NRCs Agencywide Document Access and Management System (ADAMS) (http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/adams.html)
- Citations are based on personal knowledge and represent a limited sample of the voluminous literature 5
Course Overview
Acknowledgments PRA Education and Philosophy George Apostolakis Norman C. Rasmussen B. John Garrick 6
Course Overview Lecture Materials Keith Compton Susan Cooper Kevin Coyne Karl Fleming Mardy Kazarians John Lane Nick Melly Ali Mosleh Curtis Smith Tom Wellock Jing Xing Electric Power Research Institute U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Project Initiation and Support George Apostolakis Michael Cheok Michael Golay Mark Thaggard Diane Siu Formative Discussions Harold Blackman Kevin Coyne Dana Kelly Ali Mosleh Gareth Parry John Stetkar and many other colleagues
Disclaimer The views expressed in these lectures are my own and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
7 Course Overview Level 1 Level 3 Seismic Here be dragons Loose nuts Fire Other Hazards LPSD HRA Level 2 R&D