ML19011A446

Workshop 1 Risk-Informed Thinking 2019-01-16

ML19011A446
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Issue date:	01/16/2019
From:	Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
To:
Nathan Siu 415-0744
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Text

Risk-Informed Thinking Workshop 1 1

Learning Objectives

• Exercise risk-informed decision making process

• Broaden consideration of potential scenarios and consequences

• Recognize impact of decision maker (stakeholder) perspective Important:

a) The workshop problems can be performed as group exercises.

b) The purpose is to exercise the modeling thought process, not to get the right answer.

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RIDM Process and Considerations NUREG-2150 3

Context: Mass Ave Crosswalk 4

Individual Decision Problem 1 After an exhausting day of lectures on PRA, youre coming down the steps, heading towards the Mass Ave crosswalk. The pedestrian crossing light is red but theres only one car approaching (see map). Should you jaywalk?

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Situation You are here Approaching car 100 ft 6

Risk-Informed Decision Making

• What are the decision options?

• What are the risks?

- Scenarios

- Consequences

- Likelihoods Adapted from RG 1.174

• Which of these risks are readily quantifiable?

• What other factors should you consider? To what extent does NRCs NPP-specific guidance apply?

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Individual Decision Problem 2 Same as Situation 1, but youre the lead cello for a concert in Kresge, and (thanks to the long last lecture) youre late.

What aspects of the decision problem are affected?

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Group Decision Problem Following a number of close calls at the crosswalk, the MIT Grad Students Council decides to take action to improve crosswalk safety.

• Who are the stakeholders?

• What are some viable options to consider?

• What are the risks associated with each option?

• Which option(s) should be presented to the stakeholders?

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