ML22080A047
| ML22080A047 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 03/22/2022 |
| From: | Andrew Nosek Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research |
| To: | |
| Nosek A | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML22080A037 | List: |
| References | |
| Download: ML22080A047 (20) | |
Text
Anticipated Impacts of Nuclear Accidents A.J. Nosek, PhD 2022 Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis Annual Conference March 22, 2022
Disclaimer The information and views expressed in the presentation are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the NRC. Neither the U.S.
Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, make any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for any third partys use.
2
Who Am I
- 15 years experience at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with a focus on nuclear accident consequence analysis
- Consequence analyst for the NRC cost-benefit analysis on the Expedited Transfer of Spent Fuel (COMSECY-13-0030)
- Consequence analyst for various research projects (e.g., State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses, NUREG-1935; Spent Fuel Pool Scoping Study, NUREG-2161)
- Dose analyst responding to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster through the NRC Incident Response Center
- Author of the theory manual for the MACCS severe accident consequence analysis code
- I help direct the development for the MACCS code
- BS and MS in Nuclear Engineering (UW-Madison)
- PhD in Decision Science and Operations Research, Industrial and Systems Engineering (UW-Madison)
- Dissertation titled, Fukushima-informed Recovery and Cost Assessment: A Proposed Approach to Estimating the Cost of Nuclear Disasters 3
Outline
- Introduction
- Property Damage (Market Impact)
- Economic Disruptions (Market Impact)
- Nuclear Plant Damages (Market Impact)
- Expenditures (Market Impact)
- Environmental Damage (Non-Market Impact)
- Burden of Societal Disruptions (Non-Market Impact)
- Health Effects (Non-Market Impact)
- A Practitioners Thoughts 4
Introduction
- Accounting for a comprehensive set of nuclear accident impacts is important for regulatory decision-making.
- Nuclear accidents, particularly those with widespread contamination, have numerous adverse impacts.
- Goal of presentation: categorize and present the broad range of adverse impacts resulting from nuclear accidents.
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Introduction Breakdown of Market and Non-Market Impacts of a Nuclear Accident Market Non-Market Property damage (physical, Environmental damage (radiation-contamination, interdiction, stigma) induced, disaster-related)
Economic disruptions (Losses to Burden of societal disruptions (related businesses, consumers, workers, and to stigma and evacuation /
supply chains) displacement)
Nuclear Plant (property damage and Health effects (radiation-induced, economic disruption) disaster-related)
Expenditures (e.g., emergency response activities, relocation, medical services, decontamination-related activities, compensation and litigation system) 6
Property Damage (Market Impact)
- Real estate
- Impacted by land interdiction, contamination, and stigma
- Impacted by local market conditions
- Business closures lead to loss of local employment opportunities, goods, and services
- Loss of local functional services (e.g., utilities, health care, schools)
- Agriculture
- Crop losses impacted by food interdiction
- Other tangible losses due to contamination
- Nuclear plant damage 7
Property Damage (Market Impact)
- Two major offsite areas: interdicted and unrestricted areas
- Land interdiction makes property unusable
- Interdiction prevents upkeep, causing faster depreciation
- Interdiction can increase the perception that an area is hazardous
- Interdicted areas may have little to no salvage value 8
Economic Disruptions (Market Impact; 1/2)
- Economic activity requires:
- businesses that profit from operations
- workers that earn wages and benefits
- suppliers (and others) that sell their commodities to the businesses
- customers that purchase the goods or services
- Economic disruptions can occur when restrictions disrupt one of these activities 9
Economic Disruptions (Market Impact; 2/2)
Breakdown of Economic Value Consumer Economic Value Surplus (i.e., the amount that consumers Producer are willing to pay) Business Surplus Revenue Production Costs (i.e., labor, supply)
Quantity 10
Nuclear Plant Damages (Market Impact)
- An accident causes both property damage and economic disruption
- Physical damage and contamination may lead to unusable property
- While the plant is not operating, there is a replacement energy cost to meet the electricity demand the plant would normally produce.
- If the accident causes minor damage (i.e., no permanent shutdown), costs include
- Restoration costs and the replacement energy cost for the outage.
- If the accident causes a permanent shutdown, cost include
- Increased cost to decommission the plant, the decreased salvage value of the plant, and the replacement energy cost for the plant.
- If the accident causes widespread nuclear plant shutdowns, costs include
- Decreased plant asset values and increased replacement energy costs for the affected nuclear plants.
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Expenditures:
Decontamination-Related Activities (1/2)
- Widespread Decontamination Campaign
- Decontamination
- Waste storage
- Waste transportation
- Waste disposal
- Other support activities (e.g., community outreach, the development of plans and guidelines, research and development, worker training and acquisition, contract management and work verification) 12
Expenditures:
Decontamination-Related Activities (2/2)
- In addition to decontamination waste, other sources of contaminated waste include:
- Trash collection, agricultural, sewage / wastewater, deteriorating buildings, household belongings, disaster debris
- Uncertain policies and level of preparedness will affect timeliness and costs
- Extent of decontamination
- Acceptable cleanup level
- Necessity of interim storage
- Final waste disposal site
- Decontamination pilot program 13
Expenditures:
Relocation Expenses
- Displaced individuals
- Food
- Transportation
- Temporary housing
- Moving costs
- Household goods
- Comparable replacement dwelling
- Ancillary housing costs (e.g., closing costs, mortgage interest, rental /
down payment assistance)
- Displaced businesses
- Operating expenses during a transitional period
- Temporary place of business
- Employee training
- Office supplies 14
Expenditures:
Medical Costs
- Medical care for the sick and elderly
- Short-term care during evacuation and at shelters.
- Long-term living assistance for those separated from their support networks due to the evacuation.
- Medical care for general population
- Care for displaced individuals with degraded physical or mental conditions.
- Periodic medical screenings for radiation-induced health effects, and care and treatment should they arise.
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Other Expenditures
- Emergency Response Activities
- Unified command and other field offices
- Emergency operations centers (Federal, state, and local)
- Offsite response organizations
- Compensation and Litigation System
- Court and attorney fees
- Administration of claims 16
Environmental Damage (Non-Market Impact)
- Short-term radiation effects
- High doses can kill plants and animals (e.g., Chernobyls red forest).
- Long-term radiation effects
- Studies observe negative effects on abundance, distribution, and life history of certain plants and animals (e.g., insects, birds).
- Mammals have flourished in exclusion areas without humans.
- Physical damage
- No direct physical destruction of environment.
- Heavy decontamination (e.g., stripping topsoil, felling trees) is harmful in areas it is used.
- Light decontamination (e.g., grass cutting, washing, sweeping) is more widely used and has minimal impact.
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Burden of Societal Disruptions (Non-Market Impact)
- Displacement of large populations creates significant personal and social disruptions
- Types of impacts:
- Psychological distress (increased post-traumatic stress disorder and other disorders)
- Behavior and lifestyle changes (increased sleep issues, diabetes, dyslipidemia, overweight, and substance abuse)
- Loss of livelihood (loss of homes, jobs, lifestyle)
- Dysfunction in families and communities (conflicts regarding risk perception, compensation, and stigma)
- Diminished standard of living (worse living conditions, severe health care issues, and social isolation have been major causes of death among elderly) 18
Health Effects (Non-Market Impact)
- Disaster-related health effects
- Radiation-induced health effects
- Stochastic effects (e.g., cancer)
- Deterministic effects (e.g., radiation sickness) 19
A Practitioners Thoughts
- A nuclear accident with widespread contamination has many types of societal consequences
- Property damage
- Economic disruptions
- Nuclear plant damages
- Expenditures
- Emergency response activities
- Relocation expenses
- Medical costs
- Decontamination-related activities
- Compensation and litigation system
- Environmental damage
- Burden of societal disruptions
- Health effects
- Valuations that can better reflect the full impact, including their extent and duration, may help improve analyses for practitioners.
The information and views expressed in the presentation are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the NRC. Neither the U.S.
Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, make any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for any third partys use 20