ML19011A439

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Lecture 8-2 Infrastructure 2019-01-22
ML19011A439
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Issue date: 01/16/2019
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Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
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Nathan Siu 415-0744
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PRA and RIDM Infrastructure Lecture 8-2 1

Key Topics

  • Policy statements
  • PRA standards and guidance
  • Other infrastructure elements 2

Overview

Resources U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Safety Goals for the Operation of Nuclear Power Plants; Policy Statement; Correction and Republication, Federal Register, 51, p. 30028 (51 FR 30028), August 21, 1986.

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods in Nuclear Activities; Final Policy Statement, Federal Register, 60, p. 42622 (60 FR 42622),

August 16, 1995.

American Society for Mechanical Engineers and American Nuclear Society, Standard for Level 1/Large Early Release Frequency Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plant Applications, ASME/ANS RA-Sa-2009, Addendum A to RA-S-2008, ASME, New York, NY, American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park, Illinois, 2009.

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, An Approach for Determining the Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Results for Risk-Informed Activities, Regulatory Guide 1.200, Revision 2, March 2009. (ADAMS ML090410014) 3 Overview

Other References ASME Joint Committee on Nuclear Risk Management (JCNRM), Codes &

Standards https://cstools.asme.org/csconnect/CommitteePages.cfm?Committee=100 186782 International Atomic Energy Agency, Safety Standards https://www.iaea.org/resources/safety-standards M. Tobin, K. Coyne, and N. Siu, Current PRA knowledge management activities at the NRC, Proceedings PSA 2011 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis (PSA 2011),

Wilmington, NC, March 13-17, 2011.

M.H. Salley and A. Lindeman, Methods for Applying Risk Analysis to Fire Scenarios (MARIAFIRES) - 2012, NUREG/CP-0303, EPRI 3002005205, April 2016.

4 Overview

RIDM Infrastructure elements

  • Policy statements
  • Standards and guidance
  • Tools
  • Staff
  • Training
  • R&D 5

Overview

Policy Statements

  • Announce intention, provide direction to staff
  • Safety Goals (1986)

- Qualitative: nuclear is not a significant source of risk

- Quantitative: significant ~ 0.1% or greater

- Surrogate: CDF (1E-4/ry), LERF (1E-5/ry)

- Increase use (subject to state-of-the-art)

- Complement deterministic, support defense-in-depth

- Realistic as practicable; reduce unnecessary conservatism

- Consider uncertainties when using Safety Goals 6

Policy Statements

PRA Standards and Guidance 7

PRA Standards

PRA Standards

  • Consensus documents based on practice
  • Establish ground rules for acceptable analyses -

regulatory review can focus on peer review facts and observations (F&Os)

  • Need to be careful that desire for standardization/consistency doesnt stifle

- use of imagination in searching for potentially important contributors

- use of innovative problem-solving approaches (e.g., reviewer questions of why rather than why not) 8 PRA Standards

PRA Reviews

  • Peer review and regulatory review

- Important before PRA standard development -

provided some confidence in analysis results

- Now an integral and formalized part of process

  • Documentation is critical
  • Review is in the context of an application

- Adequate for the intended purpose

- Other countries require state-of-the-art => different review standard, but also more careful definition of state-of-the-art 9

PRA Standards

ASME/ANS Standard Status*

  • Level 1/LERF at-power published, new edition in process
  • Level 2 - available for trial use
  • Level 3 - in process to be published for trial use
  • Low Power and Shutdown - available for trial use
  • Advanced Light Water Reactors (including SMRs) - in process to be published as an appendix to new edition
  • Non-Light Water Reactors - available for trial use 10

IAEA Safety Documents Hierarchy Fundamentals

- Fundamental Safety Principles SF-1 General Requirements

- Safety Assessment for Facilities and Activities (GSR Part 4)

Specific Requirements

- Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Design (SSR-2/1)

- Safety of Nuclear Power Plants:

Commissioning and Operation (SSR-2/2)

Safety Guides

- Level 1 PSA (SSG-3)

- Level 2 PSA (SSG-4) 11 Fundamental Safety Objective, Principles of Protection Requirements That Must Be Met Guidance and Recommendations for Meeting Requirements PRA Standards

Some Other Standards and Regulatory Guides IEEE-1082-2017 - IEEE Guide for Incorporating Human Reliability Analysis into Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Nuclear Power Generating Stations and Other Nuclear Facilities, 2017.

United Kingdom Health and Safety Executive, Technical Assessment Guide: Probabilistic Safety Analysis, T/AST/030 -

Issue 03, 2013.

Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI), Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA): Quality and Scope: Guideline for Swiss Nuclear Installations, ENSI-A05/e, 2009.

Finland Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK),

Probabilistic Safety Analysis in Safety Management Of Nuclear Power Plants, Guide YVL 2.8, 2003.

12 PRA Standards

NPP PRA Tools Analysis Software

- General PRA codes (e.g., SAPHIRE, CAFTA, RISKMAN, Risk Spectrum)

- Plant-specific models (e.g., SPAR)

- Support codes (e.g., MELCOR, MAAP, MACCS)

- Specialized models and toolboxes (e.g., CFAST, FDS, EPRI HRA Calculator)

- General purpose statistical analysis tools Databases and search tools

- Raw event data (e.g., LERs)

- Specialized databases (e.g., FIRE, ICDE, OPDE, SACADA)

- Generic estimates Hardware 13 Other Infrastructure Elements

NRC Staff and Major Events 14 Other Infrastructure Elements

NRC Staff Training No.

TItle P-101 Risk-Informed Regulation for Technical Staff P-102 Bayesian Inference in Risk P-105 PRA Basics for Regulatory Applications P-107 PRA for Technical Managers P-108 Fire Protection SDP P-109 Assessing Adequacy of Models for Risk-Informed Decisions P-111 PRA Technology and Regulatory Perspectives P-200 System Modeling Techniques P-201 SAPHIRE Basics P-202 Advanced SAPHIRE P-203 Human Reliability Assessment P-204 External Events No.

Title P-300 Accident Progression Analysis P-301 Accident Consequences Analysis P-302 Risk Assessment in Event Evaluation P-400 Introduction to Risk Assessment in NMSS P-401 Introduction to Risk Assessment in NMSS Overview P-403 Quantitative Risk Assessment P-404 Hazards Analysis for DOE SARs and QRAs Including ISA P-406 Human Reliability Assessment for NMSS P-501 Advanced Risk Assessment Topics P-502 Bayesian Inference in Risk Assessment Fire PRA (NUREG/CP-0303, EPRI 3002005205) 15 Multiple offerings available to staff Learning by doing (OJT) is critical Other Infrastructure Elements See also Fire PRA NUREG/CP-0303, EPRI 3002005205

NRC PRA R&D/Technical Support

  • Majority focused on short-term programmatic needs, e.g.,

- ROP support (SPAR models, data)

- Operational experience (ASP)

- Fire PRA realism

- PRA standards and guidance

  • Longer-term activities include

- Level 3 PRA study

- HRA technology development

  • Includes cooperative activities with EPRI, international organizations 16 Other Infrastructure Elements
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