ML19011A439

Lecture 8-2 Infrastructure 2019-01-22

ML19011A439
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Issue date:	01/16/2019
From:	Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
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Nathan Siu 415-0744
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PRA and RIDM Infrastructure Lecture 8-2 1

Overview Key Topics

• Policy statements

• PRA standards and guidance

• Other infrastructure elements 2

Overview Resources

• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Safety Goals for the Operation of Nuclear Power Plants; Policy Statement; Correction and Republication, Federal Register, 51, p. 30028 (51 FR 30028), August 21, 1986.

• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods in Nuclear Activities; Final Policy Statement, Federal Register, 60, p. 42622 (60 FR 42622),

August 16, 1995.

• American Society for Mechanical Engineers and American Nuclear Society, Standard for Level 1/Large Early Release Frequency Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plant Applications, ASME/ANS RA-Sa-2009, Addendum A to RA-S-2008, ASME, New York, NY, American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park, Illinois, 2009.

• U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, An Approach for Determining the Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Results for Risk-Informed Activities, Regulatory Guide 1.200, Revision 2, March 2009. (ADAMS ML090410014) 3

Overview Other References

• ASME Joint Committee on Nuclear Risk Management (JCNRM), Codes &

Standards https://cstools.asme.org/csconnect/CommitteePages.cfm?Committee=100 186782

• International Atomic Energy Agency, Safety Standards https://www.iaea.org/resources/safety-standards

• M. Tobin, K. Coyne, and N. Siu, Current PRA knowledge management activities at the NRC, Proceedings PSA 2011 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis (PSA 2011),

Wilmington, NC, March 13-17, 2011.

• M.H. Salley and A. Lindeman, Methods for Applying Risk Analysis to Fire Scenarios (MARIAFIRES) - 2012, NUREG/CP-0303, EPRI 3002005205, April 2016.

4

Overview RIDM Infrastructure elements

• Policy statements

• Standards and guidance

• Tools

• Staff

• Training

• R&D 5

Policy Statements Policy Statements

• Announce intention, provide direction to staff

• Safety Goals (1986)

- Qualitative: nuclear is not a significant source of risk

- Quantitative: significant ~ 0.1% or greater

- Surrogate: CDF (1E-4/ry), LERF (1E-5/ry)

• PRA (1995)

- Increase use (subject to state-of-the-art)

- Complement deterministic, support defense-in-depth

- Realistic as practicable; reduce unnecessary conservatism

- Consider uncertainties when using Safety Goals 6

PRA Standards PRA Standards and Guidance 7

PRA Standards PRA Standards

• Consensus documents based on practice

• Establish ground rules for acceptable analyses -

regulatory review can focus on peer review facts and observations (F&Os)

• Need to be careful that desire for standardization/consistency doesnt stifle

- use of imagination in searching for potentially important contributors

- use of innovative problem-solving approaches (e.g., reviewer questions of why rather than why not) 8

PRA Standards PRA Reviews

• Peer review and regulatory review

- Important before PRA standard development -

provided some confidence in analysis results

- Now an integral and formalized part of process

• Documentation is critical

• Review is in the context of an application

- Adequate for the intended purpose

- Other countries require state-of-the-art => different review standard, but also more careful definition of state-of-the-art 9

ASME/ANS Standard Status*

• Level 1/LERF at-power published, new edition in process

• Level 2 - available for trial use

• Level 3 - in process to be published for trial use

• Low Power and Shutdown - available for trial use

• Advanced Light Water Reactors (including SMRs) - in process to be published as an appendix to new edition

• Non-Light Water Reactors - available for trial use

• As of 1-11-2017: See https://cstools.asme.org/csconnect/CommitteePages.cfm?Committee=100186 782&Action=50220 10

PRA Standards IAEA Safety Documents Hierarchy Fundamental Safety

• Fundamentals Objective, Principles

- Fundamental Safety Principles SF-1 of Protection

• General Requirements

- Safety Assessment for Facilities and Activities (GSR Part 4)

• Specific Requirements Requirements

- Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Design That Must Be Met (SSR-2/1)

- Safety of Nuclear Power Plants:

Commissioning and Operation (SSR-2/2)

• Safety Guides Guidance and

- Level 1 PSA (SSG-3) Recommendations for Meeting

- Level 2 PSA (SSG-4)

Requirements 11

PRA Standards Some Other Standards and Regulatory Guides

• IEEE-1082-2017 - IEEE Guide for Incorporating Human Reliability Analysis into Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Nuclear Power Generating Stations and Other Nuclear Facilities, 2017.

• United Kingdom Health and Safety Executive, Technical Assessment Guide: Probabilistic Safety Analysis, T/AST/030 -

Issue 03, 2013.

• Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI), Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA): Quality and Scope: Guideline for Swiss Nuclear Installations, ENSI-A05/e, 2009.

• Finland Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK),

Probabilistic Safety Analysis in Safety Management Of Nuclear Power Plants, Guide YVL 2.8, 2003.

12

Other Infrastructure Elements NPP PRA Tools

• Analysis Software

- General PRA codes (e.g., SAPHIRE, CAFTA, RISKMAN, Risk Spectrum)

- Plant-specific models (e.g., SPAR)

- Support codes (e.g., MELCOR, MAAP, MACCS)

- Specialized models and toolboxes (e.g., CFAST, FDS, EPRI HRA Calculator)

- General purpose statistical analysis tools

• Databases and search tools

- Raw event data (e.g., LERs)

- Specialized databases (e.g., FIRE, ICDE, OPDE, SACADA)

- Generic estimates

• Hardware 13

Other Infrastructure Elements NRC Staff and Major Events 14

Other Infrastructure Elements See also Fire PRA NUREG/CP-0303, EPRI 3002005205 NRC Staff Training

• Multiple offerings available to staff

• Learning by doing (OJT) is critical No. TItle No. Title P-101 Risk-Informed Regulation for Technical Staff P-300 Accident Progression Analysis P-102 Bayesian Inference in Risk P-301 Accident Consequences Analysis P-105 PRA Basics for Regulatory Applications P-302 Risk Assessment in Event Evaluation P-107 PRA for Technical Managers P-400 Introduction to Risk Assessment in NMSS P-108 Fire Protection SDP P-401 Introduction to Risk Assessment in NMSS Overview P-109 Assessing Adequacy of Models for Risk-Informed Decisions P-403 Quantitative Risk Assessment P-111 PRA Technology and Regulatory Perspectives P-404 Hazards Analysis for DOE SARs and QRAs Including ISA P-200 System Modeling Techniques P-406 Human Reliability Assessment for NMSS P-201 SAPHIRE Basics P-501 Advanced Risk Assessment Topics P-202 Advanced SAPHIRE P-502 Bayesian Inference in Risk Assessment P-203 Human Reliability Assessment Fire PRA (NUREG/CP-0303, EPRI 3002005205)

P-204 External Events 15

Other Infrastructure Elements NRC PRA R&D/Technical Support

• Majority focused on short-term programmatic needs, e.g.,

- ROP support (SPAR models, data)

- Operational experience (ASP)

- Fire PRA realism

- PRA standards and guidance

• Longer-term activities include

- Level 3 PRA study

- HRA technology development

• Includes cooperative activities with EPRI, international organizations 16