ML20209F233

Testimony of E Lieberman Re Evacuation Time Estimate Contention of Graterford Inmates.Estimates Reasonable & Conservative.W/Certificate of Svc

ML20209F233
Person / Time
Site:	Limerick
Issue date:	07/08/1985
From:	Lieberman E Federal Emergency Management Agency, KLD ASSOCIATES, INC.
To:
References
CON-#385-764 OL, NUDOCS 8507120417
Download: ML20209F233 (20)

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'85 JUL 10 All:00 CFFn C' . u; .

00C6LTIMi A SEr BRANCd UNITED STATES OF Al1 ERICA

' NUCLEAR REGilLATORY C0f1 MISSION Refore the Atonic Safety and Licensing Board In the Matter of: )

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Philadelphia Electric Company ) Docket Nos. 50-352-0L

) 50-353-0L (Linerick Generating Station, )

Units 1 and 2) )

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FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY'S TESTItiONY ON EVActlATION TIME ESTIMATE CONTENTION OF THE GRATERFORD INMATES h 2

t Testimony of Edward Lieberman My name is Edward Lieberman. I am Vice President of KLD Associates, Inc. (KLD), an organization specializing in providing research and consulting services in the area of Traffic Engineering and Transportation Planning. KLD is located at 300 Broadway in Huntington Station, New York 11746.

Over the past five years, I have developed procedures for accurately estimating evacuation travel times from the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) of nuclear power stations and performing studies using these procedures. Specifically, these procedures take the form of a computer system named I-DYNEV. The I-DYNEV software is incorporated within the FEMA Integrated Emergency Management Information System (IEMIS) and is used to perform ,

studies of evacuation scenarios for nuclear power stations.

Using I-DYNEV, KLD has conducted evacuation studies for EPZ's of six nuclear power stations.

I was also the principal in developing the evacuation plan for.the Shoreham Nuclear Power Station and in performing an analysis of evacuation travel time for the Indian Point Nuclear Power Station. A summary of my professional experience is enclosed.

In preparing this testimony, I relied on the following references:

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1. Pennsylvania Bureau of Correction, Radiological Emergency Response Plan (RERP); Annex 1 to Appendix E of the Bureau of Correction's Emergency Plan, October 26, 1984.

2. Testimony of Superintendent Charles H. Zimmerman, Docket Nos. 50-352 and 50-353.

3. Order Admitting Certain Revised Contentions of the Gaterford Inmates and Denying Others, with Appendix, June 12, 1985.

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4. Proposed Revised Contentions of the Graterford Inmates with Regard to Radiological Emergency Response Plan, Docket Nos. 50-352 and 50-353.

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5. Evacuation Time Estimates for the Limerick Generating Station Pluma Exposure Emergency Planning Zone, Final Draft,- Prepared for: Phildelphia Electric Co., May, 1984.

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The information contained in these references, as it pertains to the evacuation of the inmates at the State correctional Institution [at] Graterford (SCIG), may be summarized as follows:

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1. Transportation resources would be fully mobilized at the Site Area Emergency level, and dispatched to SCIG on authorization from the Commissionar of Correction.

2. The supply of vehicles for evacuating the inmates from SCIG would be provided as follows:

58 buses from throughout Pennsylvania 2 ambulances from within Pennsylvania 2 security vans each from Graterford and four support instJ'cutions; a total of 10 1 ambulance from another source Total resources: 58 buses, 3 ambulances, 10 vans.

Buses accommodate 42 inmates, each; ambulances, 2 each; Vans 12-16, each.

3. The number of inmates at SCIG is 2450, according to the plan basis. Ref. 4, however, asserts there are over 2500 inmates at SCIG.

4. The evacuation procedure is organized as follows:

Level I inmates will evacuate first:

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75 inmates in 5 vans to one support institution in Pennsylvania 25 inmates in 2 vans to a second support institution in Pennsylvania 25 inmates in 2 vans to a third support institution in Pennsylvania 25 inmates in 2 vans to a fourth support institution in Pennsylvania Level II inmates will evacuate next:

250 inmates in 6 buses to one support institution' in Pennsylvania 250 inmates in 6 buses to a second support institution in Pennsylvania 250 inmates in 6 buses to a third support institution in Pennsylvania Level III, IV, V inmates following:

1575 inmates in 38 buses to a support institution in Pennsylvania Ambulances will travel to a support institution in Pennsylvania 3

Total Required: Buses: 56; Vans: 11 Total Assigned: Buses: 58; Vans: 10 i

5. Estimated distances which buses must travel to SCIG from their respective depots range from 90 miles to

' Estimated travel times which buses must 192 riles.

travel to SCIG from their respective depots range from 115 to 245 minutes in good weather conditions and from 165 to 350 minutes in inclement weather conditions.

The estimated speeds are based upon an examination of the highway map and the types of connecting highways 1

(Interstate, Non-interstate). Non-interstate are assumed to be two-way, two-lane roads. Average speeds were assumed to be 50 mph along expressways and 30 mph along local roads. Inclement weather speeds are estimated to be 70 percent of normal weather speeds.

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6. Five loading areas are identified within SCIG where l

inmate boarding of vehicles can proceed concurrently.

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! Total estimated boarding time is one hour. Time required to lockdown order and inmate count, a total of one hour, is not on the critical path since the travel time of buses from their respective depots to SCIG will take longer than one hour.

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7. Time to evacuate the EPZ is estimated at 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> and 50 minutes for a winter weekday with fair weather and 6 f hours and 45 minutes for winter weekday with inclement weather conditions. Traffic within the EPZ will evacuate in directions which are generally radial relative to the

power station.

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8. An estimate of the travel time to evacuate inmates from SCIG to the EPZ boundary may be based upon the known i

distance of SCIG from the power station (8.3 miles) and the knowledge that the EPZ boundary is from 10 to 12 miles from the power station. It is thus reasonable to estimate that the distance from SCIG to the EPZ boundary should not exceed 5 miles, regardless of the routes taken if the movement is, for the most part, in a direction away from the power station.

9. The sequence of activities along the critical path for evacuating the inmates of SCIG, together with their respective estimated times, are presented below (assuming an "immediate" General Emergency):

6 Activity Description Estimated Times (min.)

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Weather: Fair Inclement

1. Notification of bus and van 5-45 5-45 l drivers and other support personnel

2. Travel of bus and van drivers 10-30 10-40 to pick up and fuel their vehicles.

3. Travel of buses and vans 115-245 165-350 from depots to SCIG (see step 5, above)

4. Boarding of Inmates 30 50 (maximum delay after arrival of vehicle)

5. Travel out of EPZ 10 15 Note that the estimates given for Activities 1 and 2, above, are reasonable, based on the assumption that the bus drivers are within 10-15 miles of the depots when notified and that notification procedures are implemented effectively. Since traffic movement associated with evacuation will be outbound 6

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from EPZ, while the movecent of these vehicles will be inbound, the assumed average speeds used for Activity 3 are reasonable.

Since buses and vans will arrive intermittently over a period of several hours, we need only consider the maximum delay expected in loading one bus -- not the aggregate time to load all inmates. Loading time should average less than 10 minutes per bus. Travel time out of the EP2 for the last bus will take place after the general public has evacuated; thus an average speed of at least 25-30 mph,is reasonable in fair weather.

10. It is not proper to simply add all the minimum times together, then all the maximum times together, to arrive at the total range of time for evacuating the inmates at SCIG. Nevertheless, if one is interested in estimating the absolute maximum time that all these activities can consume, that upper bound may be found by-adding the maximum numbers given in step 9.

On these bases, the following estimates follow:

Weather 7

. l Fair Inclement r

Maximum Estimated Time for Buses and Vans to Evacuate Inmates from SCIG (Hours: Minutes) 6:00 8:20

11. Conclusions

1. Based on the analysis presented above, the estimates presented in Reference 4, by Superintendent Zimmerman '

are certainly reasonable and somewhat conservative.

Buses and vans should start to arrive at SCIG within 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> of the Notice to Evacuate and all inmates should be evacuated from the EPZ within 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> in fair weather and within 8 1/2 hours in inclement weather.

2. The number of buses allocated (58) is adequate based upon the figures presented. However, I recommend that at least 63 buses be available at all times for the following reasons:

a) The population of SCIG may experience fluctuations which exceed the planning basis of 2450 inmates.

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b) It must be assumed that some buses may not be available due to maintenance activities, and a few may experience mechanical difficulties l during the evacuation.

3. The number of vans allocated is inadequate; 11 are needed vs. the 10 that are allocated. For the reasons given in item 2, above, I recommend that a total of 12 vans be allocated for evacuating inmates from SCIG.

4. The plan for loading Level I inmates first, then j

Level II inmates, etc. may not be efficient from the point of view of matching available vehicles with inmates. If buses arrive at SCIG before all vans have been dispatched, then these buses would be kept waiting for tha vans to arrive. If security can be maintained, it would be better to load the vehicles as they arrive, l

and dispatch them when loaded, thereby reducing the radiological exposure potential of all personnel.

I l 5. The evacuation of inmates from SCIG will not affect the estimated evacuation travel times for the following reasons:

a) The small number of vehicles involved in the evacuation of inmates from SCIG, even l

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considering the police escort vehicles, relative to the number of vehicles used to evacuate the general public.

b) Most buses and vans will probably leave SCIG after all -- or almost all -- of the general public has evacuated. (compare the estimated times of step 9 with those of step 7).

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1 EDWARD LIEBERMAN Position: Vice President Education: B.S., Civil Engineering, 1951, Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn M.S., Civil Engineering, 1954, Columbia University M.S., Aero Engineering, 1967, Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn Subsequent studies toward a Ph.D. in Transportation Planning at Polytechnic Institute of New York Professional Backcround: With almost 30 years' professional experience, Mr. Lieberman has managed numerous major projects.

Mr. Lieberman pioneered the development and application of traffic simulation models, making major innovations in the state of the art in the Traffic Engineering profession. He has also been responsible for many engineering studies involving data collection, analysis and design of traffic control systems to expedite traffic flow and relieve congestion.

He has developed simulation models to study traffic performance.

on urban networks, on freeways, and on freeway corridors. These programs include consideration of pedestrians' interacting with vehicular traffic, truck and bus operations, special turning lanes, and vehicle fuel consumption and emissions; both pretimed and actuated traffic signal control are represented. Selected project activities include:

o Responsibility for the theoretical development of DYNEV, a dynamic evacuation simulation model. DYNEV is designed to be used as a tool to develop and optimize evacuation plans needed as part of general disaster preparedness planning.

DYNEV was used to analyze an existing evacuation scenario at the Con Edison Indian Point Nuclear Power Station and was used to develop an extensive evacuation plan for the LILCO Shoreham Nuclear Power Station on Long Island, New York.

e Serving as a principal in the development of an evacuation plan for the Long Island Lighting Company's Shoreham Nuclear Power Station. Mr. Lieberman's activities in this project include, definition of evacuation scenarios, definition of the evacuation network, analysis of trip tables, analysis and optimization of simulation results, the preparation of formal documentation and testimony, and providing testimony at public hearings conducted as part of the licensing procedures.

e Responsible for the development of the I-DYNEV model, an interactive version and enhancement of the DYNEV model, under contract with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). I-DYNEV, in turn, was integrated into the i

Integrated Emergency Management Information System (IEMIS), developed by FEMA.

e Applied I-DYNEV to estimate the evacuation times for the Evacuation Planning Zones (EPZ) for six nuclear power stations.

e Developed course material and conducted training for emergency planning personnel at the National Emergency Training Center (NETC) in Emmittsburgh, MD.

l e The design of the NETSIM microscopic traffic simulation i model (formerly UTCS-1) for urban environments to evaluate traffic. operations, for the Federal Highway i Administration.

o The SCOT model which simulates traffic on freeway 4 corridors was developed for the Transportation System center of the Department of Transportation. The latter program includes a dynamic traffic assignment algorithm which routes traffic over a network to satisfy a specified origin-destination table, in response to changing traffi.c flow characteristics.

e Mr. Lieberman has developed advanced traffic control policies for urban traffic for the FHWA-sponsoted UTCS Project, as well as a bus preemption policy to enhance the performance of mass transit operations within urban environs. l e He designed and programmed the advanced " Third Generation" area-wide, cycle-free control policies for moderate and congested traffic flow for computer-monitored real-time systems.

e He developed a cycle-based, off-line computational procedure named SIGOP-II, to optimize signal timing

patterns to minimize system "disutility."

e He led a group of traffic engineers and systems analysts in developing a system of macroscopic traffic simulation models designed to evaluate Transportation Systems Management (TSM) strategies. This software system, named TRAFLO, also includes an equilibrium traffic assignment model. This model has been distributed to other agencies including FEMA.

o An " Integrated Traffic Simulation System," named TRAF, has been designed by Mr. Lieberman. This model will 4 incorporate all the best traffic simulation models available. Using structured programming techniques, TRAF will integrate: NETSIM, TRAFLO, INTRAS (a microscopic

, freeway traffic simulation model), and a microscopic rural-road traffic simulation model.

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e Mr. Lieberman served as Principal Investigator on NCHRP Project 3-20 entitled, " Traffic Signal Warrants." This project. involved both field data collection and the application of the NETSIM model to study intersection

. delay as a function of traffic volume, type of control and geometrics. New signal warrants were developed and documented.

e Under NHTSA sponsorship, Mr. Lieberman directed a research study to evaluate a Driver Vehicle Evaluation Model named 3 DRIVEM. This model simulates, the response of motorists f to harardous events. The effort included analysis of the model formulation and software and sensitivity testing. A workshop was designed, organized, scheduled and conducted by KLD; experts were invited from all over the U.S. to recommend specific NHTSA research activities for the further development of the mode. A recommended research program constituted the major output of the contract.

a Prior to 1960, Mr. Lieberman applied his skills to the areas of stress analysis, vibrations, fluid dynamics and numerical

! analysis of differential equations. These analyses were programmed for the IBM 7090 and System 360, CDC 6600, G.E. 625

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and UNIVAC 1108 digital computers in assembly language, FORTRAN and PLI. He also designed the logic and real-time programming for a sonar simulator built for the Department of Navy and monitored by a PDP-8 process-control digital computer.

Professional Activities: Member of the American Society of Civil Engineers, the Institute of Traffic Engineers, the Association of Computing Machinery and the Transportation Research Board (TRB).

He is a member of the capacity Committee and of the Traffic Flow l Theory and Characteristics Committee of the TRB. He is a licensed Professional Engineer in New York and in Florida.

Honorary Society: He is a member of the Chi Epsilon Honorary Fraternity.

j Selected Publications:

"DYNET - A Dynamic Network Simulation of Urban Traffic Flow,"

Proceedinas, Third Annual Simulation Symposium, 1970.

" Simulation of Traffic Flow at Signalized Intersections: the SURF System," Proceedinas, 1970 Summer Computer Simulation Conference, 1970.

" Dynamic Analysis of Freeway Corridor Traffic," ASME paper, i Trans. 70-42.

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( " Simulation of corridor Traffic: The SCOT Model, Hichway Research Record No. 409, 1972.

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" Logical Design and Demonstration of UTCS-1 Network Simulation Model," Hiahway Research Record No. 409, 1972 (with R.D. Worrall and J.M. Bruggerman).

! " Variable Cycle Signal Timing Program: Volumes 1-4," Final

Report of Contract DOT-FH-11-7924, June 1974.

" Traffic Signal Warrants, KLD TR-51, Final Report on NCHRP Project 3-20/1, December 1976 (with G. F. King and R. Goldblatt).

" Rapid Signal Transition Algorithm," Transoortation Research Record No. 509, 1974 (with D. Wicks).

"Subnetwork Structuring and Inerfacing for UTCS Project-Program of Simulation Studies," KLD TR-5, January 1972.

" Development of a Bus Signal Preemption Policy and a System Analysis of Bus Operations," KLD TR-ll, April 1973.

"SIGOP-II - Program to Calculate Optimal, Cycle-Based Traffic Signal Timing Patterns, Volumes 1 and 2, " Final Report, Contract DOT-FH-11-7924, KLD TR-29 and TR-30, December 1974. Summary

, Reoort in Transoortation Research Record, 596, 1976 (with J.

Woo).

" Developing a Predictor for Highway Responsive System-Based 1 Control," Transoortation Research Record, 596, 1976 (with W.

McShane and R. Goldblatt).

"A New Approach for Specifying Delay-Based Traffic Signal Warrants," Transportation Research Special Report 153 - Better Use of Existina Transoortation Facilities, 1976.

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" Network Flow Simulation for Urban Traffic Control Systems,"

Vols. 1-5, PB230-760, PB230-761, PB230-762, PB230-763, PB230-764,

1974 (with R. Worrall). Vols. 2-4 updated 1977, KLD TR-60, TR-61, TR-62 (with D. Wicks and J. Woo).

"Extenrion of the UTCS-1 Traffic Simulation Program to ,

Incorporate Computation of Vehicular Fuel Consumption and Emissions," KLD TR-63, 1976 (with N. Rosenfield).

" Analysis and Compcrisons of the UTCS Second- and Third-

' Generation Predictor Models," KLD TR-35, 1975.

" Urban Traffic Control Systems (UTCS) Third Generation Control (3-GC) Policy," Vol. 1, 1976, (with A. Liff).

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" Design of TRAFIC Operating System (TOS) , KLD TR-57, 1977.

" Revisions to the UTCS-1 Traffic Simulation Model to Enhance Operational Efficiency," KLD TR-59, 1977 (with A. Wu).

"The Role of Capacity in Computer Traffic Control," in Research i

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l Directions in Computer Control of Urban Traffic Systems, ASCE, 1979.

" Traffic Simulation; Past, Present and Potential," in Hamburger W. S. and Steinman, L., eds., Proceedines of the International Symoosium of Traffic Control Systems, University of California, Berkeley, 1979.

"TRAFLO: A New Tool to Evaluate Transportation System Management Strategies," presented at the 59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 1980 (with B. Andrews).

" Determination of the Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection," presented at the 59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 1980.

" Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the Left-Most Lane of an Approach," presented at the 59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 1980 (with W.R. McShane).

" Development of a TRANSYT-Based Traffic Simulation Model,"

presented at the 59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 1980, (with M. Yedling).

" Hybrid Macroscopic-Microscopic Traffic Simulation Model,"

presented at the 59th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 1980 (with M.C. Davila).

"A Model for Calculating Safe Passing Distances on Two Lane Rural Road," presented at the 60th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 1981.

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UNITED STATES OF AMERIC A NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION C3UEQ UNC in the Matter of )

Philadelphia Electric Company Docket Nos. 50-352 85 JL 10 A100'

) 50-353 (Limerick Generating Station, ) CFF a e. ..

Units 1 and 2) ) 00cErisosign SRAhen CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I hereby certify that copies of the Federal Em e rg en cy Ma n ag em en t Agency's Testimony (of Edward Lieberman) on the Evacuation Time Estimate Contention of the Graterford Inmates in the captioned matter have been served upon the following by hand delivery or by deposit in the United States mail this 8th day of '

July, 1985.

Hel en F. Hoyt , Es q. Atomic Safety and Licensing Chairperson Appeal Panel Atomic Sa fety and U.S. Nucl ea r Regul ato ry Licensing Board Commission U.S. Nucl ear Regul ato ry Wa shi ngt on, D. C. 20555 Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 Docketing and Service Section Dr. Richa rd F. C ol e U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Atomic Sa fety and Commission Licensing Board Washington, D.C. 20555 U.S. Nucl ea r Regul ato ry Commission Don Hassell, Esq.

Washington, D.C. 20555 Coun s el for NRC Staff Of fice of the Executive l Dr. Jerry Harbour Leg al Director Atomic Sa fety and U.S. Nucl ea r Regul ato ry i Licensing Board Commission U.S. Nucl ear Regul ato ry Washington, D.C. 20555 C ommi s s i on l

Washington, D.C. 20555 Troy Conner, Esq.

1747 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.

Washington, D.C.

Atomic Safety and Licensing Angus Love, Esq.

Board Panel 107 E a st Main St reet U.S. Nuclear Regul atory Norri stown, PA 19401 Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 R o b e r t J . Su g a r,a a n , Esq.

S ug a rm a n , Denworth &

Phil adelphia El ectric Company Hell eg ers ATTN: Edwa rd G. Baue r, J r. 16th Fl oor, Center Pl aza Vice President a 101 North Broad Street G e n e ral Counsel Phil adelphia, PA 19107 2301 Market Street Phil adelphia, PA 19101 John L. Patten, Di rector Pennsylvania Emergency Mr. Frank R. Romano Ma n ag ement Ag ency 61 Fo rest Avenue Room B-151 Am bl e r , Pennsylvania 19002 Transportation and Safety Building Mr. Robert L. Anthony Ha rri sbu rg , PA 17120 Friends of th Earth in the Del awa re Vall ey Ka th ryn S. Lewi s, Es q.

• 106 Vernon Lane, Box 186 City of Phil adelphia Moyl an, PA 19065 Hunicipal Services Bldg.

15th and JFK Blvd.

Cha rl es W. Elliot, Esq. Phil adelphia, PA 19107 325 N. 10t h St reet Easton, PA 18064 Thomas Gerusky, Di rector Bureau of Radiation Miss Phyllis Zit zer Protection Limerick Ecol ogy Action Depa rtment of Envi ronmental P.O. Box 761 Resources 762 Queen Street 5th Floor Pottstown, PA 19464 Fulton Bank Bldg.

Thi rd and Locust Streets Zori G. Ferkin, Esq. Ha rri sb u rg , PA 17120 As si stant Coun sel Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Jay M. Gutierrez , Es q.

Governor's Energy Council U.S. Nucl ear Regul atory 162 5 N . Front Street Commission Ha rri sb u rg , PA 17102 631 Pa rl Avenue King of Prussia, PA 19406

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, James Wiggins Senior Resident Inspector U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissin P.O. Box 47 Sanatoga, PA 19464 Timothy R.S. Campbell, Esq.

Di recto r Department of Emergency Se rv i ces 14 East Biddle Street West Chester, PA 19380 Mr. Ralph Hippe rt Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency B151 - Transportation and Safety Building Ha rri sb u rg , PA 17120 Theodore G. Otto, Esq.

Department of Corrections Of fice of Chief Counsel P.O. Box 598 Li sburn Road Camp Hill, PA 17011 Les igned5, Michael B. Hirsch i