ML20128N965
| ML20128N965 | |
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| Site: | Shoreham File:Long Island Lighting Company icon.png |
| Issue date: | 05/31/1985 |
| From: | NEW YORK, STATE OF |
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| NUDOCS 8506030428 | |
| Download: ML20128N965 (21) | |
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t NEW YORK POWER POOL 1985 SUMMER OPERATING RESERVE PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS i
I Prepared By l
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8taff of the Department of Public service l .
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May 1985
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l 8506030428 DR 850529 p ADOCK 05000322 PDR I'
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i TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 9=9Y 2 I. GENERATING CAPACITY 5 II. TRANENISSION CAPACITY 7 III. LOAD AND OPERATING RESERVE FORECAST 9 IV. WORST CASE ANALYSIS 12 TAGLES 14 O
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INTRODUCTION This report provides an analysis of the New York Power Pool's (NYPP) projected 1985 summer operating reserve margins (available generation capacity above peak load) of the statewide system, consolidated Edison Company of New York (Consolidated Edison), and Long Island Lighting company (LILCO).
Staff considered the adequacy of the reserve margins on both an installed and operating basis. Consolidated Edison and LILCO have been studied independently due to their susceptibility to transmission contingencies.
Staff projected unavailable capacity figures ststintically.
Estimated peak 1 cads, scheduled outages, installed capacity, and transfer limit information for the 1985 summer period were provided by the NYPP, Consolidated Edison, and LILCO.
Staff's findings and conclusions are based on a current ,
estimate of operating conditions for the 1985 summer. If subsequent system events adversely affect the integrity of the bulk power supply system, a reassessment of system reliability will be necessary.
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SUMMARY
.. l The NYPP has projected that its peak load will reach 22,420 MW for the 1985 summer. This is 2 percent higher than the ,
'all time highest peak load of 21,971 MN which occurred'on June 11, ,
1964. Consolidated Edison'and LILCO peak loads are expected to be 7,625 MW and 3,300 MW respectively. Both utilities anticipate their peak loads to be higher than the 1984 peak -- Consolidated Edison by 1.5 percent and LILCO by 6.5 percent.1 .
The NYPP requires each member system to maintain an 18 percent installed generating reserve above its peak load.
If each member system maintains this 18 percent requirement, then ,
the NYPP will have a 22 percent installed reserve margin. For summer .
1985 the required installed capacity for NYPP, Consolidated Edison, and LILCO is 27,352 MN, 8,998 MW, and 3,894 MW, respectively
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(TABLE I).- While the NYPP and Consolidated Edison have adequate ,
installed reserves, LILCO, with 3,767 MW of installed capacity, will be ahort some 127 MW in meeting its requirement.
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1 LILCO's 1984 peak load of 3,096 MW would have been higher by approximately 120 MW or 3.9 percent were it not for a system wide voltage reduct:lon on June 11. The LILCO peak is
!' therefore projected as 2.6 percent over the calculated peak -
for 1984.
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The NYPP also requires that each utility maintain generating capacity on line or quickly available (e.g., gas turbines) to meet its load plus an " operating reserve" to assist in meeting unplanned cutages. This reserve is necessary so the power system can withstand emergencies with a greater measure of reliability.
Staff has forecasted that operating reserves at peak load times will be less than required for NYPP, Consolidated Edison, and LILCO.- NYPP's anticipated operating reserve margin of 1,617 DDF (TABLE VI) is short some 1,083 MW of maating its 2,700 MW reserve requirement.1 Similarly Consolidated Edison's projected operating reserve of 401 MW falla 512 MW short of its 913 MW reserve requirament (TABLE V). LILCO is projected to be 507 NN short of meeting its required reserve set at 391 MW (TABLE IV). Thus,'it will have to buy capacity to meet both its load and operating reserve.
The NYPP and Consolidated Edison have strong tie lines to neighboring pools and systems that will enable delivery of energy in t.
I the event of a major loss of generation, assuming spare capacity is available. LILCO has transmission capacity sufficient to loport anergy to cover its load, but not to meet the operating reserve requirement. Under our projections, it will be necessary for LILCO to t-ke operating relief measuren to meet its needs, such as emergency .
1 Modifications to the interconnection with Hydro Quebec will allow importation of an additional 500 MN this summer. As noted below, j this additional ioport capability will result in the need to provide l
a significantly higher pool operating reserve.
s Imports using Consolidated Edison t'ransmission and voltage reduction. -
Under adverra circumstances, it is possible because of the limited transmission capability that load shedding may be necessary.
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I. GENERATING CAPACITY f'
i A. Installed Capacity TABLE I shows that, based on this summer's projected peak
. loads, the NYPP, ConeMidsted Edison, and LILCO will have installed
While Consolidated Edison and NYPP will meet this requirement, LILCO, for the first time in many years, will not. The 127 MN installed reserve shortage ,will have to be purchased from the NYPP. As we will discuss later, average levels of generator outages at LILCO are projected to exhaust its reserve, creating a high probability that LILCO will not be able to meet its peak load and operating reserve without
- relief measures. .
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. B. Scheduled OutarJe Indian Point 3 (965 MW capacity), owned by NYPA, is scheduled to be out of service this summer for refueling and maintenance. No
' other major generating unit has been scheduled out of service this summer in the downstate area. There are units scheduled for overhaul in the upstate area and the New York Power. Pool is closely examining the possible rescheduling of certain work.
Several sizeable units are or will be undergoing spring maintenance with planned early June return-to-service dates. Units in this category include Roseton 2 (600 MW), Astoria 3 (353 MW), Bowline 2 (600 MW), and Port Jefferson 2 (370 MW) for a total of 1,923 MW.
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Some of these units could experien.ce delayed return-to-service dates thereby reducing the operating reserve margin further during the beginning of the summer period. Last year the NYPP (and many of its member systems individually) experienced its record summer peak load of
-21,971 MW on June 11, 1984. The early peak electric demand occurred during the scheduled outag's of a large amount of capacity. The NYPP had h eens canada to meet its operating needs while
{7 7777y== =amenu Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) had to go into a voltage reduction. If high loads occur, therefore, in the late spring, scheduled outages and extended spring outages can cause operating .
reserve shortages.
- c. Total Unavailable capacity Total unavailable capacity is .that amount of generation unavailable to meet load. This includes planned or acheduled outages, i forced cutages, doratings, and capacity out for economic reasons (reserve shutdown). TABLE II, included at the end of this report, presents the average amount of ~ unavailable capacity for the summers of 1982, 1983, and 1984, as well as a forecast for the sunner of 1985. The f
forecast is based on the unplanned average outage level of the three l
! prior summers plus the specific planned outages for this summer. Staff projects that LILCO will have SS3 MW of generation cut of .ervice during l- the summer; consolidated Edison, 1,847 MW (does not include Indian Point No. 3 or Polletti of PASNY); and NYPP, 7,839 MW.
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II. TRANSMISSION CAPACITY A. Consolidated Edison Company of New York Consolidated Edison's normal transmission import capability for summer 1985 is expected to be 4,003 MW (TABLE II). Normal tranamission limits are set so that the loss of one facility will not overload any of the others. Under storm watch operating conditions, and the greater likelihood of transminnion outages, transmission limits are set so that the loss of two facilities will not overload any of those remaining in service.
For summer 1985 the storm watch transmission import capability will be 2,663 MW. The import limits for both normal operation and storm Changes in watch conditions are some 600 MW lower than last summer.
generation and transmission circulation patterns for this summer have caused the seJetaed import level.1 2
Subtracting' total cocnitted capacity of 2,653 MH from the normal and storm watch transfer limits results in emergency transfer capability of 1,350 MW and 10 MN, respectively. These amounts can be used for economy purchases from upstate to reduce expensive consolidated 1 Includes increased imports from Hydro Quebec over the 765 kV tie line, the operation of somerset (not in service last The maximum summer) and altered Dower flows in New Jersey.
flow on the 765 kV is increasing from 1,300 MW to 1,800 MW j
due to improvements on the Canadian side.
l l 2 Committed to firm purchases and energy from Consolidated l Edison's generation located north of lta service territory.
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Edison oil-fired generation. It should be pointed out that utilization .
of transmission import capability to import energy for any reason is subject to the availability of external generation. .
B. Long Island Lightina Comnany .
LILCQ's normal transmission import capability is expei:ted to be 260 MW. This is LILCO's share of the normal capacity of it major tie to consolidated Edison. LILCO has a 138 kV tie line with Connecticut l fron Northport with a normal limit of 140 MW. However, the New England pool'has indicated that it expects severe operating problems in peak periods, .and it .is unlikely that it will be able to deliver an'y power to f LILCo during peak load periods. .
The normal rating of the tie lines to Consolidated Edison is 560 MW. However, because Consolidat'ed Edison co-owns the major tie line with LILCO, by agreement, Consolidated Edison utilizes 300 DDT of .
During that capacity to wheel power to Brooklyn and Queense ,
emergencies, if consolidated Edison's generation is available at Astoria, Consolidated Edison could drop the wheeling of electricity to its territory and therefore deliver an extra 300 MN to.LILCo. Under emergency conditions it is also likely that an additional 13 NN could be imported to LILCO over other smaller ties with Consolidated Edi, son.
Therefore TABLE IV shows an emergency transmission import capability -
of an additional 313 MW to LILCO. This scenario assumes that at least ~
some Astoria units are operating. There is likely to be 5n economic penalty to consolidated Edison in running Astoria units above their economic level.
III. LOAD AND OPERATING RESERVE FORECAST A. Consolidated Edison CccDany of New Yor_k TABLE V sum:r.arizes a staff estimate of 1985 su=mer electric load, generating capacity, and operating reserve for Consolidated Edison. Total installed capacity plus firm purchases and NYPA generation will equal 12,141 MW, This will meet the forecast peak load of 8,775 MW with a 3,366 NW gross generating IE5csvu saigin.
Projected unavailable capacity of 2,965 (which assumes Indian Point 3 out of service for maintenance) at the time of the peak results in a net generating reserve cargin (operating reserve) of 401 NW. This level is not adequate to meet Consolidated Edison's operating reserve requirement of 913 MW.
To =eet its reserve requirement at the time of its peak load consolidated Edison will have to purchase reserve and depend on its transmission import capacity for its delivery in the event of an unexpected loss of generation. TABLE V shows that Consolidated Edison's transmission import capability of 1,350 MW (from TABLE III) ,
will handle the operating reserve deficiency with a 638 MW surplus. .
B. Lonc Island Lighting Company TABLE IV summarizes a staff estimate of the 1985 summer electric load, capacity, and reserves for the LILCO system. LILCO has experienced operating reserve deficiencies during periods of high load cach of the last two summers. We expect conditions in 1985 to be significantly worse. Load growth in the LILCO territory has been higher than anticipated. For example, Draft STATE ENERGY HASTER
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14 y,L ev' 3 Sp '.2e PLAN III Projected a 1985 peak at )MW. The current projection of the company (, reviewed for reasonableness by our economic research staff) is 3300 or almost 180 MW highar. In addition, LILCO in the past has depended on a transmission line tie-to New England for.about 140 MW. New England's capacity problems make it extremely unlikely that any capacity will be available over this tie. Rather, we expect that the NYPP will be called upon during the summer to help New England.
Our projection shows that LILCO's generation will not meet 4
its operating reserve requirements at the time of its peak load. In fact, assuming average levels of unavailable capacity - 583 MR -
LILCO may not even be able to meet its forecast load, i.e., LILCO will have to import energy over its tie lines. The normal transmission .
Import capability of 260 MW should be sufficient to import enough capacity for LILCO to meet its peak load, but the company will have virtually no operating reserve for emergencies. Unde'r these *
- circumstances, relief measures will likely become necessary.
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We have provided on TABLE IV a listing of possible operating relief measures that can be taken to meet capacity shortages.
. Combining these measures, LILCO should be able to avoid actual load ahedding during high load periods because the total relief provided, f 485 MW, is greater than the piojected operating reserve deficit. This i assumes however,that voltage reduction is implemented and, more I
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importantly, that generation is available at Astoria on the con Ed system to allow the emergency import of 313 NW f~ rom Consolidated Edison on the con Ed tie. ~
During high load periods LILCO may be buying virtually its entire reserve fram the NYPP. Under our projections, LILCO would be required to implement relief measures if unavailable capacity is
" normal". In the event that LILCO loses a major generating unit (in
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addition to the units covered by the average or normal unavailable capacity figures), LILCO's tie lines would become overloaded. To prevent these lines from tripping out of service and compounding the problem, load shedding would be required immediately. cur forecast, which indicates load and capacity almost in balance with no reserve, suggests that load shedding could occur, although it is not likely.
1 From an operating perspective we conclude that LILCO'a capacity shortage problem will cause an increased potential for the l need to use operating relief measures including voltage reduction.
C. New York Power Pool TABLE VI summarizes staff's estimate of the 1985 I summer electric load, capacity, and reserves for the entire NYPP I system. The NYPP expects to have 30,948 MW of installed capacity and, in addition, plans to purchase 928 MW of firm capacity. The total of 31,876 MW is 9,456 MW greater,than the a.ticipated summer peak load of 22,420. This gross generating reserve margin of 9,456 MW will be adequate to austain staff forecasted cutage levels of I
7,639 MW. However, the resulting not operating reserve of 1,617 MW l l I ,
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4 will not be su5ficient to meet the NYPP's own operating reserve standard of 2,700 MW. An important change this year that impacts the chortfall is the increase of import capacity on the 765 kV tie to Hydro Quebec from 1,300 to 1,800 MW.
Under the pool's procedures, cufficient capacity should be available equal to 1-1/2 times the l Tha rmarmeine reserve requirement inrgest likely ept-- certi=;ev is 7S0 MW higher than last year to' protect against the potential loss of the Canadian tie.
IV. WORST CASE ANALYSIS Staff has utilized average historical operating data ,to Our outage forecast is project operating conditions for summer 1985.
br. sed on average historical data and. the NYPP and the member systems' ,
projected Icad is based on average weather conditions assuming some ,
cdditional amount for growth. If conditions at the time of the peak icad are not close to average, then our projection will not be ,
cccurate.
Taking int:o consideration the fact that record peak loads
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l- h2ve occurred cateide the principal hot months of the summer each of the last two years (September 6,1983, and June 11, 1984), it is possible that a major hot spell during the mid-summer months would result in loads significantly higher than projected. If a oignificantly higher load were to occur at the same time that ,
ganerator outages were above average, major operating problems could result.
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Except for LILCO, staff's projection excludes the use of operating relief measures, such as voltage reduction and load .
. shedding. Under worst case conditions (significantly higher load than projected and higher than average generator outages) operating relief measures, including voltage reduction become likely throughout the 4
pool and load shedding may be required in southeast New York.
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TABLE I I!
INSTALLED RESERVE REQUIREMENTS M consolidated Edison M 9,451 30,948 Installed Capacity 3,714 900 928 53 Firm Purchase _
10,351 31,876 ;
3,767 TOTAL CAPACITY 7,625 22,420 )
3,300 Forecast Peak Load _
6,998 27,352 Required Capacity / 3,894 1,353 4,524 surplus or (Deficiency) (127) l 1/ Prom data supplied b'y LILCO, Consolidated Edison, and NTPP.
2/ NYPP requi. s each member system to maintain 18 percent installedRequir ,
generating reserves above ,its system peak load.This is projected to result '
capacity is 1.18 times the peak load.in NYPP installed capacity .
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- . TABLE III TRANSFER LIMITS / 2/
UPSTATE NEW YORK TO.COtiSOLIDATED EDISON Normal Storm Watch onoratines conditions (Mw). oneratiner conditlena (Mw)3/
1 4,003 2,663 Absolute Limit Less Committed Capacity:
- Consolidated Edison Northern Capacity. 800 Bowline 800 480
.Rosaton 480 160
' Fitzpatrick 160 740 Bydro Quebec 740 300 -
LILC0 Obligation 300 146 146 NYSEG Obligation .
Long Island 27 _
27 Municipals i 2,653 2,653 .
TOTAL COMMITTED Surplus Available -
for Emergency 1,350 .
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Transfer 1/ From data supplied by Consolidated Edison. Assumes Indian Point 3 i is out of service-. t 2/ Includes power through the Publio Service Electric and Gas System (New Jersey) and into New York City.
3/ Under stors watch conditions transfer limits are established so that the simultaneous loss of,two transmission faciAlties does not Normal cause the remaining lines to exceed emergency limits. limit ,
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TAnti!-1V. e l LILCO: OPERATING RESERVE
SUMMARY
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!* CAPACITY .
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1985'(MW)
LILCO Installed 3.714
{ FitzPatrick 53-TOTAL CAPACITY 3,767 -
. LOAD
. Peak Load 3,300 .
TOTAL LOAD j Capacity almus load (Gross Reserve) 467 l
! Less Forecast UnevallableIl _ 583
- Operating Reserve (116)
Operating Reserve Requirement 2/ 393 l
. Surplus or (Deficiency) '
(507) .
Tr'nsmission a import Capability 260 ,
LessdedicatedImpogs 53 Less NYPA cust.oners 64 Surplus or (Deficiency) (364 Relief Measures: Municipal Generation 52 * . * !
Emergency Transmission Import 313 .
Voltage Reduction 120 4
485 -
Staff pojetilm ushg mergy laels of uplanud cutags one the last samers and slike pland outsys for this sauer. .
litswe mpinsatt egarments LHMs share of NftP geraths remns mptsturit based cut 1.RB Mi shgle conthwncy in MG5 a 1 a 2.40 W ,
- skgle asthgvig tirroster. 'the % shule avsketity is the tJe tol%dru Quire. Wi5 W. Wildi will lic &le to carry 1,80 Md in 1985
- j. atl 2.4D W laskults in 1825. ,
lMnedcirnts: 27; Andisun: 27; Onmum: 10 ~ ' '
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Consolidated 5dison: Operatingpeserve g Summary Summer 1985 perne=mt fwn CAPACITY: 9,451 Consolidated Edison 325 Polletti .
965 2ndian Point 3 i Pita Purchasess 740
- Bydzo Quebec 160 Fitzpatrick TOTAI, CAPACITr 12,141
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PEAK LOAD:
Consolidated Edison 7,625 custoasra 1,150 NYPA custoasta TOCU. 1,0AD 8,775 f
Capacity minas load ,3,358 (Gross Reserve) 1,ess Forecast Unavailable 2,9652/
Capacity _-
401 Operating Reserve Operating Reserve 913 37 Requirement _
l farplus (Deficiency) (S12) 4 I
Transmission Zaport 1,350
' Capability 538 surplua .
I 1/ From data supplied by consolidated sdison except as noted.
2/ staff projection using average levels of unplanned outages over the last three sumers for Consolidated. Edison service territory ,
[' generation (includes NTPA generation) and adding planned eurages l for this summer. ,
N The NYFP sets the statewide operating reserve requirement by multiplying the single largest contingency by 1.5. For 1983 susser l
[' i the largest contingency will be the 783 kV tie to sydro Quebec loaded at marinum of 1,800 w. (1,800 I 1.5 - 2,700 sof.)
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consolidated Edison's portion of this is 913 8er. ,
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TABLE VI 1/
NYPP:' Operating Reserve Summary Summer 1985 Forecast (MW).
CAPACITY: 30,948 Installed Firm Purchases 928 .
31,876 TOTAL CAPACITY:
LOAD: 22,420 .
NYPP .
Capacity minus Load 9,456 ,.
(Gross Reserve)
Less' forecast Unavailable 7,839 2/
Capacity .
1,617 Operating Reserve .
Operating Reserve 2,700 Requirement Eurplus or (Deficiency) (1,083)
I 1/ From data supplied by the NYPP except as noted.
3l From TABLE ZZ.
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