ML20114F271
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4 UNITE 3 STATES
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Y NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION g,
,g WASH 4NGTON,0. C. 200ES
=e March 7, 1978' Docket No. 50-329/330 MEMORANDUM FOR:
James R. Tourtellote, Assistant Chief Hearing Counsel, ELD FROM:
Roger S. Boyd, Director, DPM
SUBJECT:
ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION COMPLETION DATES FOR MIDLAND UNIT 2 I should like to advise you of internally-generated information which potentially could be relevant and material to the Midland proceeding.
The subject relates to our estimates of when Midland Unit 2 (the first of.the Midland units scheduled for completion of construction) can be expected to be complete &in accordance with the application, and other-wise ready for furl loading. The latest estimate, presently under study liv the start, is not yet developed completely. When it has been we should provide -the Board with our assessment of the significance of the information in accordance with our evolving Board Notification procedures.
As you wili recall, the staff testified in February 1977 that, at that time, November 1980 was a reasonable date for completion of Unit 2.
Amendment 33 (FSAR) to the application, docketed November 18, 1977 gives the applicants' earliest and latest dates for completion as October 1, 1980, and October 1, 1981, respectively. The " rainbow books" published by MIPC (Blue Book and Yellow Book) carry an esti-mated fuel load date of November 1980 for Unit 2.
In late 1975 the NRC established a Caseload Forecasting Panel to pro-vide estimates of incoming CP and OL applications, and when individual facilities would be ready for operation, for budget and workload plan-ing purposes. On November 15, 1977 the Executive Director for Operations instructed the Caseload Forecasting Panel to develop and refine a con-sistent forecasting methodology and to provide periodic caseload fore-casts that could serve as the single source for internal and external users. Although this activity is not directed to the Midland units, or any other particular facility, the studies and the results of the Panel's efforts will provide construction completion estimates on all facilities under construction, based on a set of standard assumptions that can be applied to all facilities.
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. c,p James R. Tourte110te '-
l p. a.iu. 'a In the course of the Panel's present study, the NRR project staff was asked to conment on the Panel's most recent prwjections. The Midland Project staff identified two estimates of constructiori completion for I,,Q. E.., the Midland units generated by MIPC which differ from the staff testi-Y iII.,$t;i'
. books.
In April 1977, based on February 1977 data and assuming the plant was 23% complete at that time, the MIPC made a generic estimate for budget planning purposes that Unit 2 would be ready to load fuel in August 1983. A second generic estimate was made in January 1978 l QM,h. assuming 38% completion of construction, with the conclusion that May 1932 should be used for budget planning purposes. During this' f,.NT?...
(Yellow Book) continued to carry the November 1980 date.
time, MIPC's monthly Construction Status Report on Nuclear Power Plants i bg...,,,..
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The Forecast Panel, using a standard model for average plant construction duration, has established initially a May 1932 fuel load date for Unit 2.
It is in the process of refining this estimate, as well as estimates for Q,~..
other plants, taking into account plant-specific factors that would
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provide a more precise estimate.
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Recognizing the variations of these general estimates with the dates provided in Amendment 33, and the fact that these estimates potentia 11y U3f.t. affect certain issues in the Midland proceeding, we plan to do a more ~yrm...
detailed plant-specific analysis of the best estimate fuel load date for Midland Unit 2 and will provide the results to the Forecast Panel, the utility, and to you.
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Orldnd W.nd Dy Roger S. Boyd
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5-Roger S. Boyd i
Director
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M. Grossman RSBoyd Rdg.
W. Olmstead BD Notification File S. Karf E. Case H. Berkow N. Moseley A. Abell R. DeYoung L. Crocker D. Vassallo
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