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Supplemental Responses to Info Requests of City of Philadelphia.Related Correspondence
	ML20087L089
Person / Time
Site:	Limerick
Issue date:	03/21/1984
From:	Boyer V; PECO ENERGY CO., (FORMERLY PHILADELPHIA ELECTRIC
To:	;
References
	CON-DSB-112 NUDOCS 8403270017
	Download: ML20087L089 (12)
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA HUCLEAR REOULATORY COMPl!SSIDH i

In the Matter of )

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Philadelphia Electric Company ) Docket Hos. 50-352 t

) 50-353 (Limerick Generating Statlon )

Units 1 and 2) )

APPLICANT'S SUPPLEMENTAL RESPONSES TO INFORMATION REQUESTS OF THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA TO THE PHILADELPHIA ELECTRIC COMPANY I

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DISCOVERY 31 MARCH 21,1984 t

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b REQUEST NO. 6 For any CRAC- runs done for bad weather, please specify a) how

' t hese assumptions' were different and b) t he incremental differential in res lis. , ,

s SUPP1EMENTALRESPbMSE

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While no CRAC runs were perf ormed to attempt to explicitly analyze th's ef f ect s of bad weat her, t he data base for t he Sandia generic model is derived from US evacuation experience. Included are a rain case, a fog case, and a snow case (see Reactor Safety Study (Discovery 26, Item 6a) Table VI J-il. Hence, bad weat her is included in t he evacuation model which was applied in SARA.

I l No specific analysis was perf ormed beyond t he use of t his model. However, to estimate t he effect of explicitly I

considering bad weather, it could be assumed that 4X of the time (SARA, page 10-11) the evacuation is adverseiy affected by bad ,weat her to such an extent t hat t he assumpt ions f or evacuation speeds for t he seismic evacuation case are appropriate (3 hours3.472222e-5 days 8.333333e-4 hours 4.960317e-6 weeks 1.1415e-6 months delay and I sph evacuation speed). In .

l this case, an estimate of the ef fect of this change may be

! made by considering the source terms VRil20 and C4I and theia contribution to the public risk of early f atality. T he base ,

case VRH2O contribut ion to the public risk of early f atality -

j due to internal initiators only in 2.09x10.s per year. This

- is derived by multiplying t he results f rom the CRAC2 run

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(designated' Discovery 31. Item 6a) by the point estimate frequency of _f.4x10-s (SARA, Table 12-8). If now, for 4% of t he. t ime, weat her condit ions are so bad that it is necessary to assume t he seimsic evacuation case, a hand calculation ,

(designated Discovery 31, Item 6b) shows t hat this quantity increases 4.9%. For C4I, the corresponding increase is 4.5%, -

again using a CRAC2 run for C4T (designated Discovery 31, Item 6c) and the above hand calculat ion (Discovery 31, Item 6b). These calculations show that the explicit inclusion of slowing of evacuat ion due to bad weat her, in addit ion to t hat included in t he model data base, would only have a small i

(less than 5% increase) ef fect on t he results.

PARTICIPANTS IN PREPARATION OF RESPONSE V. 5. Boyer Senior Vice President - Nuclear Power l Philadelphia Electric Company

! 2301 Market Street Philadelphia, PA 19101 i G. D. Kaiser, Ph.d. -

Manager,' Consequence Assessment Department Consulting Division MUS Corporation I l . 910 Clopper Road _

Sal t hersburg, Maryland 20878-1399 S. H. Gibbon Philadelphia Electric Company 2301 Market Street Philadelphia, PA 19101 ,

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REGUEST No. 7 a) A descript ion of t he dif ferent breathir.g rates, if any, assumed in the analyses.

b) What t he differences were in results as a function of breathing rate assumptions.

I SUPPLEMENTAL RESPONSE The breathing rates assumed in SARA are documented in SARA at 10.t.6.4. The breathing rate given is 2.66x10**m3s-8 on page

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10-13 and is the same as that which was used in the Reactor Safety Study (Discovery 26, Item 6a) and documented in t he

l. PRA Procedures Guide (Discovery 26, Item 7a) at page 9-39.

t The precise value or range of values chosen for the breathing 5 i rate is a relatively unimportant input to t he calculations.

- Based upon a preliminary-scoping execution of CRAC2 for the source term VRH2O (designated Discovery 31, Item 7a) t he breathing rate was simply doubled to 5.32 x 10-Sm3s-8 This assumption is equivalent to assuming t hat lhe entire population out to 500 mil'os was breathing at an average rate indTcative of 16 hours1.851852e-4 days 0.00444 hours 2.645503e-5 weeks 6.088e-6 months of heavy work and 4 hours4.62963e-5 days 0.00111 hours 6.613757e-6 weeks 1.522e-6 months of resting.

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By hand calculation (designated Discovery 31, Item 7b) and .

comparison to the CRAC2 base case run (Discovery 31, Item 6a)

I t he whol e-body manrem increased by 18%, latent cancer l fatalities increased 57%, and early f atalit ies increased 45%. ,

l T hese results indicate t hat even a highly conservative .

doubling of the breathing rate would not have a large effect f

1: on public risk. SARA has indicated that other uncertaint ies,

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such as variations in source terms, are much more significant.

PARTICIPANTS IN PREPARATION OF RESPONSE V. S. Boyer Senior Vice President - Muclear Power Philadelphia Electric Company 2301 Market Street Philadelphia, PA 19101 G. D. Kaiser. Ph.d.

l Manager, Consequence Assessment Department Consulting Division -

NUS Corporation

. 910 Clopper Road

- Ga i t hersburg, Maryland 20878-1399

5. H. Gibbon Philadelphia Electric Company 2301 Market Street Philadelphia, PA 19101 d

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d REOUEST NO. 11 m) What assumptions were made as to percentage of '

populat ion that would evacuate within the ten mile EPZ.

Provide bases for the assumpt ion. t SUPPLEMENTAL RESPONSE The percentage of population assumed to evacuate was 100%.

The basis for this assumpt ion is provided in SARA at page 10-10.

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A rough estimate can be provided of the likaly increase in the public risk of early f atality if it is assumed that a 5%

fraction of the population does not evacuate. The basis for 5% as t he fract ion of nonpart icipat ing people is t hat , in 1

actus1 evacuations.

Civil Defense Personnel obser'ved this fraction ("A Model of Public Evacuation for Atmospheric 1 Radiological Releases" by D. C. Aldrich et. al., SAND 78-0092, (1978) at page 13 (Discovery 26, Item 11a)).

From the CRAC2 runs (Discovery 31, Item 6a and Item 6c) 't he accident sequences C41f and VRH2O contribute significantly to t he point estimate pub!Ic risk of early fatality. (1.8x10-9 per i . year). i Two addit ional CRAC2 runs (designated Discovery 31, $

g Items lla and 11b respectively), one each for VRH2O and C41f 3 were performed which assumed a delay time of 24 hours2.777778e-4 days 0.00667 hours 3.968254e-5 weeks 9.132e-6 months and 9 E

subsequent evacuation at 5 a high speed (sufficient speed to is l ensure t hat t he i incremental radiation dose accumulated dering . b g

evacuation is small cowpered to that accumulated during the la 2 delay time). "$

The areas under the conditional CCDFs so a 2

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obtained were used in a hand calculation (designated Discovery 31, It em .11c) . The increase in public risk is f6%.

This scoping calculat ion shows that including a nonevacuating i

fraction of the populat ion would not be expected to increase l t he public risk by a large amount, and t hat other uncertainties discussed in SARA, such as variations in source l

term, are much more significant.

- PARTICIPANTS IN PREPARATION OF RESPONSE .

V. S. Boyer Senior Vice President - Huclear Power Philadelphia Electric Company 2301 Market Street -

Philadelphia, PA 19101

0. D. Kaiser, Ph.d.

Manager, Consequence Assessment Department Consulting Division NUS Corporation -

910 Clopper Road Gait hersburg, Maryland 20878-1399

5. H. Gibbon Philadelphia Electric Company 8 2301 Market Street Philadelphia, PA 19101 -

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REQUEST NO. 12 It is noted t hat PECo's SARA analysis. assumed normal behavior beyond ten miles f or twelve hours then evacuat ion.

For PEco Onive a) What evacuat ion t imes were assumed? b-b) 'I f any sensitivity analyses were done with other C l

assumptions, please describe t he assumptions and ,

t he result s. .

RESPONSE

a) The evacuat ion of the populace beyond 10 miles is " rapid relocation which is discussed in SARA at page 10-11.

Rapid Relocat ion assumes t he instantaneous cessation of dose accumulation.

b) A number of CRAC2 cases were run to specifically evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the

( assumptions on behavior of the population beyond 10 C

! miles. Except for the cases discussed below no analysis i

or evaluat ion of t hese CRAC2 cases has been made.

1) Results for shel t er ing in basements f or 24 hours2.777778e-4 days 0.00667 hours 3.968254e-5 weeks 9.132e-6 months i

followed by Rapid Relocation indicate an 8% .

decrease in early fatility risk and a 25% decrerse l In r !?k ' of bone marrow dose greater t han 200 rems f rom the base case. ,

2) CRAC2 cases have been run showing the ef fect of a

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48 hour5.555556e-4 days 0.0133 hours 7.936508e-5 weeks 1.8264e-5 months delay in relocat ion with " normal activity" C t

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during- the 48 hours5.555556e-4 days 0.0133 hours 7.936508e-5 weeks 1.8264e-5 months on the population of the City of Philadelphia. A summary of the results of this is provided in the table on the following page based on point estimate frequencies and considering the actual dose response for early fatalitles rather than threshold values as were supplied in Applicant's Responses to Information Requests of the City of Philadelphia to t he Philadelphia Electric Company, dated February 16, 1984.

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Chance Per Reactor Year That Various Radioloalcal Effects Will Occur in Philadelnhia If No Counter-measures are Taken for 48 Hours Internal Seismic 131g1 Chance that there will be one or more One in 130 One in 4 One in 3 early fatality in the City of billion billion billion Philadelphia i

Chance that there will be one or more One in3 One in i One in 750 l persons in Philadelphia requiring billion billion million hospital treatment (bone marrow dose more than 200 rem)

Chance that there will be one or more One in 3C One in 40 One in 16 person,s in Philadelphia with whole all11on 4 million millon

body dose in excess of 25 rem

, Chance that there will be one or more One in 2.5 One in 4 Onk in 1.5 l persons in Philadelphia with whole million million million ,

body dose in excess of 5 rem l

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- A number of additional CRAC2 runs were made which included changes in t he assumptions on behavior of pecple beyond 10 miles along with other changes so that t he impact of t he individual c hanges cannot be separated. An example of t hi s is the CRAC2 runs, referred to in Response to Request No. 11 above (Discovery 31, Items Ita and lib), for no evacuation of 5% of the population which also included no relocation (until 24 hours2.777778e-4 days 0.00667 hours 3.968254e-5 weeks 9.132e-6 months ) of tha population from 10 to 25 miles.

PARTICIPANTS IN PREPARATION OF RESPONSE V. S. Bayer Senior Vice President - Nuclaar Power Philadelphia Electric Company 2301 Market Street Philadelphia, PA 19101 G. D. Kaiser, Ph.d.

Manager, Consequence Assessment Department Consulting Division HUS Corporation 910 Clopper Road i Cai t hersburg, ' Maryland 20878-1399 S. H. Gibbon Philadelphia Electric Company 2301 Market Street -

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. Philadelphia, PA 19101 I

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COMMONWEALTH 07 PENNSYLVANIA :

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COUNTY OF PHILADELPHIA :

V. S. Boyer, being first sworn, deposes and states:

That he is Senior Vice President of Philadelphia Electric Company, the Applicant herein; that he has read the foregoing Applicant's Supplemental Responses to Information Requests of the City of Philadelphia to the Philadelphia Electric Company and knows the contents thereof; and that the statements and matters set forth therein are true and correct to the best of his knowledge, information and belief.

Senior Vice PreMdent Subscribed and sworn to beforemethisik day '

of March,1984.

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Notary Public i l

PATlDClA D. ScHOLL N**'t Pubhc. Phiu.taspLia, s xatgm n '

UI Mb Expires Tcbwary 14 is3;

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ML20087L089

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RESPONSE

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