ML15076A073
| ML15076A073 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Palo Verde  |
| Issue date: | 03/10/2015 |
| From: | Cadogan J J Arizona Public Service Co |
| To: | Document Control Desk, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| References | |
| 102-07010-JJC/TNW/PJH | |
| Download: ML15076A073 (100) | |
Text
411 Qaps 10 CFR 50.54(f)JOHN 3. CADOGAN, JR Vice President Engineering Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station P.O. Box 52034 Phoenix, AZ 85072 Mail Station 7602 Tel 623 393 5553 102-070 10-JJC/TNW/PJ H March 10, 2015 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission ATTN: Document Control Desk 11555 Rockville Pike Rockville, MD 20852 Reference, NRC Letter, Request for Information Pursuant to Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations 50.54(f) Regarding Recommendations 2.1, 2.3, and 9.3, of the Near-Term Task Force Review of Insights from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Accident, dated March 12, 2012
Dear Sirs:
Subject:
Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS)Units 1, 2, and 3 Docket Nos. STN 50-528, 50-529, and 50-530 Seismic Hazard and Screening Report In accordance with the NRC request for information in the reference letter, enclosed is the Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Units 1, 2, and 3, which documents the results of the seismic hazard evaluation performed for Arizona Public Service Company (APS).The PVNGS structural design bounds the reevaluated seismic hazard ground motion response spectrum (GMRS), therefore, no further evaluations or interim actions are needed or required for the Near Term Task Force (NTTF) Recommendation
2.1 seismic
review.No commitments are being made to the NRC by this letter. Should you need further information regarding this submittal, please contact Thomas Weber, Department Leader, Regulatory Affairs, at (623) 393-5764.I declare under penalty of perjury that the foregoing is true and correct.31 lol I 1ý-Executed on (Date)Sincerely, JJC/TNW/pjh A-0 10 A member of the STARS (Strategic Teaming and Resource Sharing) Alliance Callaway
- Diablo Canyon
- Palo Verde
- Wolf Creek
" I02-07010-JJC/TNW ATTN: Document Control Desk U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Seismic Hazard and Screening Report Page 2
Enclosure:
Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Units 1, 2, and 3, March 2015 cc: W. M. Dean M. L. Dapas B. K. Singal M. M. Watford C. A. Peabody N. J. DiFrancesco NRC Director Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation NRC Region IV Regional Administrator NRC NRR Project Manager for PVNGS NRC NRR Project Manager NRC Senior Resident Inspector PVNGS NRC JLD Project Manager SEISMIC HAZARD AND SCREENING REPORT for the PALO VERDE NUCLEAR GENERATING STATION UNITS 1, 2, AND 3 REVISION 0 MARCH 2015 I Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Contents I In tro d u ctio n .............................................................................................................................
3 2 Seism ic Hazard Reevaluation
..............................................................................................
4 2.1 Regional and Local Geology .....................................................................................
4 2.2 Probabilistic Seism ic Hazard Analysis ........................................................................
6 2.2.1 Overview of SSHAC Process ..................................................................................
6 2.2.2 Sum mary of Seism ic Source Characterization (SSC) M odel .....................................
7 2.2.3 Summary of Ground Motion Characterization (GMC) Model ...................................
10 2.2.4 Sum mary of PSHA Implementation
.......................................................................
15 2.2.5 Mean Site Specific Rock Hazard Curves for Major Contributing Sources ..................
17 2.2.6 Total M ean Seismic Site Specific Rock Hazard Curves ...........................................
31 2.3 Site Response Evaluation
.......................................................................................
32 2.3.1 Description of Subsurface M aterial .......................................................................
32 2.3.2 Development of Base Case Profiles and Nonlinear Material Properties
.....................
33 2.3.3 Random ization of Shear W ave Velocity Profiles ....................................................
46 2.3.4 Input Spectra ...........................................................................................................
46 2.3.5 M ethodology
...........................................................................................................
48 2.3.6 Amplification Functions
......................................................................................
49 2.4 Soil Hazard and Ground Motion Response Spectrum (GMRS) Calculations
..........
56 2.4.1 Background
.............................................................................................................
56 2.4.2 M ethodology
...........................................................................................................
56 2 .4 .3 R esu lts ....................................................................................................................
5 7 3 Plant Design Basis ..................................................................................................................
63 3.1 SSE Description of Spectral Shape ..........................................................................
63 3.2 Control Point Elevation
............................................................................................
64 4 Screening Evaluation
..............................................................................................................
65 4.1 Risk Evaluation Screening (1 to 10 Hz) ..................................................................
65 4.2 High Frequency Screening
(>10 Hz) .......................................................................
66 4.3 Spent Fuel Pool Evaluation Screening (1 to 10 Hz) ................................................
66 5 Interim Actions ......................................................................................................................
66 6 Conclusions
...........................................................................................................................
66 7 R eferen ces .............................................................................................................................
6 6 1 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 A ppendix A .T abulated D ata ..........................................................................................................
70 Appendix B SSC PPRP Endorsement Letter ................................................................................
80 Appendix C GMC PPRP Endorsement Letter ..............................................................................
85 Appendix D SWUS GMC Project Letter ....................................................................................
90 Appendix E GMC PPRP Endorsement Letter Revision 2 .............................................................
92 2 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 1 Introduction Following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant resulting from the March H1, 2011, Great Tohoku Earthquake and subsequent tsunami, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) established a Near Term Task Force (NTTF) to conduct a systematic review of NRC processes and regulations and to determine if the agency should make additional improvements to its regulatory system. The NTTF developed a set of recommendations intended to clarify and strengthen the regulatory framework for protection against natural phenomena.
Subsequently, the NRC issued a 10 CFR 50.54(f) letter, Request for Information Pursuant to Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations 50.54(f)Regarding Recommendations 2.1, 2.3, and 9.3, of the Near-Term Task Force Review of Insights from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident, (U.S.NRC, 2012a) that requests information to assure that these recommendations are addressed by all U.S. nuclear power plants. The 10 CFR 50.54(f) letter requests that licensees and holders of construction permits under 10 CFR Part 50 reevaluate the seismic hazards at their sites against present-day NRC requirements.
Depending on the comparison between the reevaluated seismic hazard and the current design basis, the result is either no further risk evaluation or the performance of a seismic risk assessment.
Risk assessment approaches acceptable to the staff include a seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA), or a seismic margin assessment (SMA). Based upon this information, the NRC staff will determine whether additional regulatory actions are necessary.
This report provides the information requested in items (1) through (7) of the "Requested Information" section and Attachment I of the 10 CFR 50.54(f) letter pertaining to NTTF Recommendation 2.1 for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS), located in in Maricopa County, Arizona. In providing this information, Arizona Public Service Company (APS) followed the guidance provided in the Seismic Evaluation Guidance:
Screening, Prioritization, and Implementation Details (SPID) for the Resolution of Fukushima Near-Term Task Force Recommendation 2.1: Seismic (EPRI, 2013). The Augmented Approach, Seismic Evaluation Guidance:
Augmented Approach for the Resolution of Fukushima Near-Term Task Force Recommendation 2.1: Seismic (EPRI, 2013a), has been developed as the process for evaluating critical plant equipment prior to performing the complete plant seismic risk evaluations.
The original geologic and seismic siting investigations for PVNGS were performed in accordance with Appendix A to 10 CFR Part 100 and meet General Design Criterion 2 in Appendix A to 10 CFR Part 50.The Safe Shutdown Earthquake Ground Motion (SSE) was developed in accordance with Appendix A to 10 CFR Part 100 and is bounded by the design of Seismic Category 1 structures, systems and components.
In response to the 10 CFR 50.54(f) letter and following the guidance provided in the SPID (EPRI, 2013), a seismic hazard reevaluation for the PVNGS site was performed.
For screening purposes, a Ground Motion Response Spectrum (GMRS) was developed.
Based on the results of the screening evaluation, the PVNGS Design Spectral Response Curve used for the design of Seismic Category I Structures., Systems and Components (SSCs) exceeds the GMRS curve in the I to 10 Hz frequency range and in the frequency range above 10 Hz; therefore, no further action is required for the NTTF Recommendation
2.1 seismic
review.3 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 2 Seismic Hazard Reevaluation The plant description is provided in the PVNGS Updated Final Safety Analysis Report (UFSAR, Rev.17). PVNGS is located in Maricopa County, Arizona, approximately 34 miles west of the nearest boundary of the city of Phoenix (UFSAR, Rev. 17 Section 2.5). The PVNGS site essentially consists of a relatively thin veneer of dense cohesionless soils, 30 to 60 feet in thickness, underlain by about 250 feet of stiff to hard clays. Cohesionless soils include layers and lenses of sands with some gravels, silty sands, clayey sands, and silts. A third general material type, granular backfill, was placed beneath and adjacent to some Seismic Category I structures.
The level of maximum vibratory ground motion that might occur at the site was determined by considering the largest earthquakes that might credibly occur in each of the following seismic zones:* Seismic Zone A is the concentration of activity in the southwest quadrant from the site at distances beyond about 120 miles.* Seismic Zone B is a roughly circular zone of epicenters about 80 miles in diameter and lying astride the Arizona-Sonora border." Seismic Zone C is a band of rather diffuse seismicity extending diagonally across Arizona from its northwest corner. Zone C corresponds to a transition zone between the Colorado Plateau to the northeast and the Sonoran Desert portion of the Basin and Range province to the southwest.
- The remainder of the region within 200 miles of the site has very sparse seismic activity and is termed Zone D. Seismic Zone D generally corresponds to the Sonora Desert portion of the Basin and Range province." Seismic Zone E is a band of seismicity trending northwestward across southern Nevada and into central Utah. This zone is about 100 miles wide and has been called the Southern Nevada Transverse Zone. Zone E was included because it bounds the site zone and separates the site zone from Nevada Basin and Range tectonics further to the north.When attenuation of strong ground motions because of distance from the epicenter was considered, the most severe case at the site was found to be the postulated (hypothetical) occurrence of a Sonora-type (1887) earthquake located 72 miles from the site (Zone C). The 10 CFR Part 100, Appendix A site characterization safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) vibratory ground motion associated with this event was found to be conservatively represented by horizontal and vertical design response spectra normalized to 0.20g with the characteristics recommended in NRC Regulatory Guide 1.60 (U.S.NRC, 1973) design spectra. These design spectra were judged to be a very conservative envelope of the level of ground shaking to be expected at the site due to an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 at a distance of 72 miles.2.1 Regional and Local Geology The PVNGS site is located in western Arizona near the city of Tonopah (Figure 1), within the Southern Basin and Range physiographic province.
The region surrounding the site has a complex geologic history associated with three major phases of deformation along the western margin of the North American continent.
These phases include (1) east-directed subduction of portions of the Farallon plate beneath the North American plate and subsequent orogenesis during Mesozoic and Cenozoic time, (2) multiple phases of Basin and Range extension from the Eocene to the late Miocene, and (3) a late Miocene to Recent 4 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 phase of transform faulting and extension to accommodate oblique divergence between the Pacific and North American plates.W6 N 133 N 30" N Figure 1. Physiographic provinces in the region surrounding the PVNGS site. Black star indicates the location of the PVNGS site. Source: (APS, 2015).The Southern Basin and Range physiographic province is generally characterized by discontinuous northwest to east-northeast trending mountain ranges flanked by extensive bedrock pediments, with intervening sedimentary basins that can be as much as 30 km wide (Menges and Pearthree, 1989). This topography expresses post-Laramide epeirogenic extension, which comprises normal-fault-bounded grabens and half-grabens.
Very few geologic slip rates are published for faults in this province, but available data indicate that Southern Basin and Range normal faults are characterized by very slow slip rates and long recurrence intervals (Pearthree et al., 1983).Within the PVNGS Site Region (320-km radius), the Southern Basin and Range physiographic province is characterized by low rates of seismicity and low to moderate magnitude historical earthquakes.
The sparse and diffuse pattern of earthquakes does not form lineaments coincident with known faults, and does not indicate the presence of unmapped faults. Beyond the Site Region the largest historical earthquake in the Southern Basin and Range physiographic province is the 1887 Sonoran earthquake.
This moment magnitude (M) -7.5 earthquake was located more than 400 km southeast of the PVNGS site (e.g., Suter and Contreras, 2002; Suter, 2006). The Northern Basin and Range Province in central and 5 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 northern Nevada, well outside the Site Region, also has had several large, historical surface-rupturing earthquakes, including the 1915 M7.2 Pleasant Valley and 1954 M7.1 Fairview Peak earthquakes (e.g., Stover and Coffman, 1993).The nearest mapped Quaternary fault to the PVNGS site is the Sand Tank fault, which lies about 60 km to the south-southwest.
This fault is characterized by an approximately 2m high fault scarp on Pleistocene alluvium that extends for approximately 3.5 km. Demsey and Pearthree (Demsey and Pearthree 1990), however, speculate that the fault may extend for as much as 32 km based on tonal lineaments.
Demsey and Pearthree's (1990) preferred interpretation is that this scarp formed during a single earthquake that occurred between about 8,000 and 20,000 years ago.Major dextral strike-slip faults associated with the Pacific-North American plate boundary are located about 240 to 300 km west of the PVNGS site. These include the San Andreas, San Jacinto, Cerro Prieto, and other faults, all of which have high slip rates and have produced repeated moderate and large magnitude earthquakes in the Holocene Epoch. The closest of these faults is the San Andreas fault, which at its nearest point lies about 240 km west of the PVNGS site.The geologic materials underlying Units 1, 2, and 3 at the PVNGS site include about 350 ft of basin sediments overlying bedrock. Basin sediments include stratigraphic subdivisions of sands, gravels, clays, silts, and fanglomerate.
Bedrock consists of Miocene volcanic and interbedded sedimentary rocks. The basement complex comprises Precambrian granitic and metamorphic rocks and has been encountered at a depth of about 1,200 feet below the ground surface in the site area (UFSAR, Rev. 17). Section 2.3 of this report provides additional detail regarding the subsurface geologic materials at the PVNGS site.2.2 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was conducted for PVNGS using updated Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) and Ground Motion Characterization (GMC) models as primary inputs.The SSC model describes the future potential for earthquakes (e.g., magnitudes, locations, and rates) in the region surrounding the PVNGS site, and the GMC model describes the distribution of the ground motion as a function of earthquake magnitude, style of faulting, source-to-site geometry, and site conditions.
2.2.1 Overview
of SSHAC Process In accordance with 10 CFR 50.54(f) letter (U.S.NRC, 2012a), the SSC and GMC models were developed using Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 procedures described in NUREG/CR-6372 (Budnitz et al., 1997), and the detailed implementation guidance provided in NUREG 2117 (U.S.NRC, 2012b). The goal of following the SSHAC Level 3 process is to provide reasonable regulatory assurance that the center, body, and range of the technically defensible interpretations have been adequately captured in the SSC and GMC models. Thus, the SSC and GMC studies were planned, conducted, and reviewed in strict compliance with the SSHAC Level 3 procedures.
The four main components of the SSHAC process are: (1) evaluation of data and methods; (2) integration of data and methods in model development; (3) documentation of the SS1HAC process and modeling decisions; and (4) participatory peer review. The SSC and GMC models were developed by separate but parallel SSHAC Level 3 studies, and each underwent ongoing review by each model's respective Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP). Following review of the final reports, each PPRP issued a closure letter summarizing their perspective of the respective SSHAC Level 3 study. The letters describe 6 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 the PPRP review process, the adequacy of the study in fulfilling the SSHAC Level 3 process of evaluation and integration, and the adequacy of documentation.
The closure letter from the SSC PPRP is provided in Appendix B.The closure letter from the GMC PPRP, for the SWUS GMC SSHAC revision 1 report, which is the foundation document for the PVNGS seismic hazard, is provided in Appendix C. Appendix C identifies PPRP reservations related "only to completeness of the documentation." Appendix D provides the SWUS GMC Project letter "Transmittal of SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3 Technical Report (Rev. 2)." This letter documents that the final GMC Models used in the PVNGS hazard evaluation did not change with respect to the Revision 1 report.Appendix E reflects final PPRP endorsement of the SWUS GMC SSHAC revision 2 report, including resolution of all reservations identified in Appendix C PPRP closure letter for PVNGS.2.2.2 Summary of Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) Model This section summarizes the seismic source characterization (SSC) model developed for PVNGS (APS, 2015). Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.208 (U.S.NRC, 2007) recommends performing seismological investigations within a radius of 320 km of the site (i.e., the Site Region). The PVNGS SSC model region exceeds this recommendation, extending to 400 km in order to include major faults in southern California and northwestern Mexico. The PVNGS SSC model comprises area earthquake sources and fault earthquake sources. The area sources extend to 400 km from the PVNGS site (the "model region").
In general, the fault sources also are within 400 km of the PVNGS site, but some high slip-rate fault sources associated with the main Pacific-North American plate boundary extend beyond 400 km from the site.Area sources are characterized with a defined geometry, seismogenic thickness, rate of earthquake occurrence, maximum earthquake magnitude (Mmax), and magnitude-frequency distribution function.
In the PVNGS SSC there are two alternative depictions of area sources, the Two-Zone and Seismotectonic models (Figures 2 and 3). Future earthquakes in the area sources are modeled with rupture characteristics such as location, dip, and slip sense. The recurrence of future earthquakes in each area source is treated as a truncated exponential distribution (Gutenberg-Richter) with spatially variable parameters based on the smoothing of observed seismicity.
The smoothing approach used is the penalized maximum likelihood approach that was implemented by the CEUS-SSC Project (EPRI et al., 2012). Activity rates and b-values were calculated for area sources using assumptions on spatial smoothing of parameters and on interpretations of historical earthquakes.
This process resulted in activity rates (for M>5) and b-values for each 0.25 degree cell, for each area source used in the hazard calculations.
Fault sources are planar sources of earthquakes that are attributed to well-defined, seismogenic or potentially seismogenic geologic faults or fault zones. The fault sources are characterized by their mapped location, geometry, depth, slip sense, slip rate, magnitude, and magnitude-frequency distribution function.The SSC model includes 168 fault sources (Figure 4). Hazard sensitivity analyses performed throughout the course of SSC model development and final hazard calculations indicate that a large number of the fault sources are not significant contributors to hazard at the site, because collectively 150 fault sources contribute less than 1% of the total reference rock fault hazard at 10 Hz and 1 Hz spectral frequencies.
In keeping with the hazard-informed approach for developing the SSC model prescribed by the SSHAC process, this information was used to focus characterization efforts on those faults that matter most in terms of hazard at the site.7 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 W N B3 N N Figure 2. The Two-Zone model for area sources in the PVNGS SSC model. The West and East sources model future earthquakes based solely on broad characteristics related to plate tectonic setting. Black star indicates the location of the PVNGS site. Source: (APS, 2015).8 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 120" W 117" W 114" W III*"W 108* W 36" N 33o N Figure 3. The Seismotectonic model for area sources in the PVNGS SSC model. Sources include Southern Basin and Range (SBR), Southern California and Baja California (SCABA), Gulf of California (GULF), Mexican Highlands (MH), Transition Zone (TZ), and Colorado Plateau (CP). Each source models future earthquakes based on variations in crustal behavior (interpreted from geophysical, seismological, and geological data) within each plate tectonic setting. Black star indicates the location of the PVNGS site. Source: (APS, 2015).9 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3°N N W30 N Figure 4. Fault sources in the PVNGS SSC model. Black star indicates the location of the PVNGS site.Source: APS (2015).2.2.3 Summary of Ground Motion Characterization (GMC) Model This section summarizes the ground motion model developed by the Southwestern U.S. (SWUS) Ground Motion Characterization (GMC) Project (GeoPentech, 2015), and the modification of the Ground Motion logic tree for use in the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for PVNGS. The regional SWUS GMC Project developed site specific Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) of the median ground motion and models of the standard deviation (sigma) for 5% damped pseudo-spectral acceleration.
These site specific GMPEs were developed for use in the Diablo Canyon Power Plant (DCPP) and Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS) PSHAs. The site specific aspects of the GMPEs were addressed by optimizing the GMPEs for the seismic sources that have significant contributions to the seismic hazard at each site (GeoPentech, 2015).Two separate sets of GMPEs were developed by the SWUS GMC project for PVNGS. The first set of GMPEs estimate ground motion for earthquakes in the less active area east of the highly active zone associated with the main plate boundary in California and Baja California (designated herein the "Greater AZ" region, see the region labeled "east" in Figure 2). This set was optimized for predominantly normal faulting earthquakes with M5 to 7, at distances less than 50 km. The second set of GMPEs estimate ground motion for the distant, larger magnitude earthquakes in California and Mexico. This set of GMPEs was optimized for M7 to 8.5 earthquakes at large distances (greater than 200 km), and includes path-10 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 specific effects to capture the systematic differences in ground motion attenuation observed during California and Mexico earthquakes at sites in central Arizona, as compared to sites in California.
Both sets of GMPEs were developed for a reference site condition with shear wave velocities of 760 m/s and average kappa of 0.041 seconds (GeoPentech, 2015). To make the SWUS GMPEs applicable to PVNGS rock conditions, response spectrum adjustment factors that convert ground motions from the reference rock conditions to the rock conditions at PVNGS were applied to the hazard calculations.
See Section 2.3, Site Response Evaluation, for a further discussion of the response spectrum adjustment factors.2.2.3.1 GMPEs for the Greater AZ Region Figure 5 shows the SWUS GMC logic tree for the median ground motion for both area sources and faults in the Greater AZ region, which has the following three nodes: Distant Metric for Common Form, Base Model, and Directivity.
One or more branches representing a single model (one-branch) or alternative models (multiple branches) were assigned to each node. The Distant Metric for the Common Form node had two branches.
These were the "RRuP based Common Form Model" branch, representing models that were based on closest distance from site to earthquake rupture (RRup) distance metric, and the "RjB based Common Form Model" branch, representing models that were based on the Joyner-Boore distance (RJB)metric. The GMC gave the "RRup based Common Form Model" branch a higher weight of 0.7 and the"RJB based Common Form Model" branch a lower weight of 0.3. Both models were applicable to strike-slip (SS), normal (NML), and reverse (REV) fault mechanisms.
Depending on the spectral period, the Base Model node had between 17 and 24 branches, with a non-uniform branch weight distribution.
Each branch represented a unique set of model coefficients that were applied to the RRup and RIB based Common Form Model. Only the Base Model branches downstream of the "RRup based Common Form Model" branch included coefficients that adjusted for hanging-wall effects. The Base Model branches were labeled "Modell," "Model2," "Model3," etc. The Directivity node had a single branch, the "NO" branch, which had a branch weight of 1.0, showing that directivity effects were not assigned to the GMPEs.Figure 6 shows the SWUS GMC logic tree for the standard deviation in ground motion ("sigma")
model for sources of the Greater AZ region, which had the following three nodes: Model, Epistemic Uncertainty, and Aleatory Distribution Form. Each node had one or more branches.
The Model node had a single branch, "M-Dependent", which had a branch weight of 1.0 showing that magnitude-dependent effects influenced ground motion. The Epistemic Uncertainty node had three branches.
These were the "High","Central" and "Low" uncertainty branches, which had branch weights of 0.3, 0.55, and 0.15, respectively.
The Aleatory Distribution Form node had two branches.
These were the "Mixture Model" and "Normal" form branches, which had branch weights of 0.8 and 0.2, respectively.
11 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Source ClaSS Distance Metric for ease Model -Assodation
%vdir one W1W branch isciT Common FormI iimpl~ied tot &w~ based Common Form Models [ J ModellAl Model A2'NL* based [=cA Common Form ..0.7 Model AN Coeffine nts and Period-de pervde n weights in Folder AN sources except 'PV"GSModeIACoefficientsW-in llegions alve I& I 09292014" ft., ba sed [ d l Conmemo form 0.3 Mdli 1WX HW X+rights-HWX HWX X is one of the HW Model branclhves (I to 5)that goes with the Model AN, as in Column L of coefficient-filesi no Coeffice ntsand Period-de perident weights in Folder"PVN GSModel BCoetfclentsWeights-12122014*
Figure 5. Logic tree for the SWUS GMC median model for faults and area sources in the Greater AZ region. Modified after GeoPentech's (GeoPentech, 2015) Figure 2-1 in Appendix C (Part 1).I Model Episternk Uncertainty Alestory Distibution Form High (95% percentie) 03 M-Depondent Centml 1.0 0.55 Low (5% rcentile)0.15 Mixture Model Normal 0.2 Figure 6. Logic tree for the SWUS GMC total sigma model for faults and area sources in the Greater AZ region. Modified after GeoPentech's (GeoPentech, 2015) Figure 4-1 in Appendix C (Part I).12 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 2.2.3.2 GMPEs for California and Mexico Figure 7 shows the SWUS GMC logic tree for the median ground motion model for faults and area sources in California and Mexico. This logic tree had the following five nodes: Median Model, Path Term approach, Additional M scaling uncertainty, Median Path Term, and Directivity.
Each node had multiple branches representing alternative models. The Median Model node had five equally weighted branches, which were the Next Generation Attenuation-West 2 (NGA-W2) GMPEs, namely the Abrahamson et al.(Abrahamson et al., 2014), Boore et al. (Boore et al., 2014), Campbell and Bozorgnia (Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2014), Chiou and Youngs (Chiou and Youngs, 2014), and Idriss (Idriss, 2014) models. The Path Term approach node had two branches, the "YES" and "NO" path term branches, which had branch weights of 0.8 and 0.2, respectively.
Three branches were assigned to the Additional M scaling uncertainty node, the "High," "Central," and "Low" uncertainty branches, which had branch weights of 0.2, 0.6, and 0.2, respectively.
The Median Path Term node was only applicable for the "YES" path term branch and had three branches assigned to it. These were the "High," "Central," and "Low" uncertainty branches, which were assigned branch weights of 0.2, 0.6, and 0.2, respectively.
Figure 8 shows the SWUS GMC logic tree for the sigma model for sources in California and Mexico.One sigma model was developed for the "YES" path term approach branch of the median GMPE, and the second sigma model was developed for the "NO" path term branch. The sigma model logic tree is similar to the Greater AZ source logic tree, and has the following three nodes: Model, Epistemic Uncertainty, and Aleatory Distribution Form. The Model node has a single branch, "M-Dependent", which has a branch weight of 1.0 showing that magnitude dependent effects were attributed to the uncertainty in the ground motion. The Epistemic Uncertainty node has three branches.
These are the "High", "Central" and "Low" uncertainty branches, with branch weights of 0.3, 0.55, and 0.15, respectively.
The Aleatory Distribution Form node has two branches.
These were the "Mixture Model" and "Normal" form branches, with branch weights of 0.8 and 0.2, respectively.
13 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 o"rCe Class 1 PadiTehm Add ion i M M e dan alM O a cf l u n c a t a in vy P a lh T e m (95% pcenble) High {95% perceludme)
ASK14 0.2 0.2 0.2 Y ¥(S frm (enba IL...hCeI11E MSAU4 0S 0.6 0.6 0. Ia 0 oLow ;ý ,Low (5% percende)S5% percetile I isklant, large M.1 0.2 (A/Mexico source (B14 0.2 0NO Regions 1, and 2& 31 0.2 1 (Y14 2 igh 0.2 0.2{95% percentile) 0no enral 0.2 Figure 7. Logic tree for the SWUS GMC median model for faults and area sources in California and Mexico. Modified after GeoPentech's (GeoPentech, 2015) Figure 3-1 in Appendix C (Part I).Md l OitubuV ] F 1Hfwn(95%
pereuile}0.15 tw(95%pereWe4 0.15 Fromn No-Path Melia) Tee M4dependenl (en[2 NOinal 055 0.2 tow (5% petcenlile 0.15 Figure 8. Logic tree for the SWUS GMC total sigma model for faults and area sources in California and Mexico. Modified after GeoPentech's (GeoPentech, 2015) Figure 5-1 in Appendix C (Part I).14 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 2.2.3.3 GMPE Implementation Several simplifications to the ground motion logic trees were made in the hazard calculations for PVNGS.For earthquakes in the Greater AZ region, the Distance Metric for the Common Form logic tree node (see Figure 5) was collapsed to the higher weighted RRUP based Common Form Model branch. A hazard sensitivity study for this logic tree node showed that collapsing the branches to a single branch would have a minor impact on hazard (LCI, 2015a). For earthquakes in both the Greater AZ region and in California and Mexico, the Aleatory Distribution Form logic tree node (see Figures 6 and 8) was collapsed to the higher weighted Mixture Model branch. A hazard sensitivity study showed that collapsing the branches to the Mixture Model is conservative (LCI, 2015a).Other important characteristics of the ground motion logic trees were modeled, such as the "YES/NO" path branches (see Figure 7) and the "High/Central/Low" epistemic uncertainty branches in the sigma model (see Figure 8).2.2.4 Summary of PSHA Implementation This section describes the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSH-A) implementation of site specific rock seismic hazard at the PVNGS site. Primary inputs to this PSHA are the PVNGS SSC model (APS, 2015) and the SWUS GMC model (GeoPentech, 2015).Response spectrum adjustment factors (AF) that convert ground motions from reference rock conditions (shear wave velocities of 760 m/s) of the SWUS GMPEs to the site specific rock conditions at PVNGS were incorporated into the hazard calculations.
2.2.4.1 Methodology As described in Section 2.2.2, the PVNGS SSC includes area sources and fault sources. There are two alternative zonation models for area sources. The first is the Two-Zone model, which includes the West and East area sources (Figure 2). The PVNGS site is located within the East source, thus the East source is designated a "host" source (it includes the site location).
Second is the Seismotectonic model, which includes six area sources: Southern California and Baja California (SCABA), Gulf of California (GULF), Southern Basin and Range (SBR), Mexican Highlands (MH), Transition Zone (TZ), and Colorado Plateau (CP) (Figure 3). The PVNGS site is located within the SBR source, thus the SBR source is designated a"host" source.A total of 168 fault sources were included in the PVNGS SSC (Figure 4). Of these, 150 fault sources were identified as being insignificant to the overall hazard at the site, since they collectively contributed less than 1% to the total reference rock fault hazard at 10 Hz and 1 Hz spectral frequencies (LCI, 2015a). As a result, these 150 faults were not considered in this analysis.
The remaining 18 faults that were included in the soil hazard calculation are shown on Figure 9 and include the following:
- San Andreas Fault (SAF)* Cerro Prieto Fault (CP)* San Jacinto Fault (SJF)* Laguna Salada Fault (LS)* Elsinore Fault (ELF)* Agua Blanca Fault (AB)* Ballenas Transform Fault (BT)15 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Pinto Mountain Fault (PMNT)Calico-Hidalgo Fault (CH)Sand Tank Fault (ST)Big Chino Little Chino Fault (BCLC)Blue Cut Fault (BC)Pisgah-Bullion Mountain-Mesquite Lake Fault (PBMML)Horseshoe Fault (HS)Williamson Valley Grabens Fault (WVG)Carefree Fault (CF)Algodones Fault (AG)Plomosa East Fault (PE)120' W 117"W 114" W 111 W 108" W'N N 43o* N Figure 9. Final 18 fault sources included in PVNGS hazard calculations.
Hazard insignificant faults (totaling 150) were excluded.
Black star indicates the location of the PVNGS site. Source: (APS, 2015).Two simplifications to the characterization of area seismic sources were made. The simplifications included (1) collapsing the rupture orientation branch to the central value, and (2) modeling fault dips as vertical.For non-host sources, these simplifications were not expected to have an impact on the hazard because of the large distances between the non-host area sources and the site (Figures 2 and 3). Non-host area sources were minor contributors to the total 10-4 hazard at 1 Hz spectral acceleration (SA). This 16 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 insensitivity of hazard to rupture orientation and fault dip for non-host sources was confirmed by performing a rupture orientation sensitivity using the SBR source (LCI, 2015a).Ground motion for host sources is sensitive to dip and crustal thickness because of the smaller distance between nearby ruptures and the site. The difference in ground motion between the SSC fault dips and seismogenic thicknesses, and a vertical dip and single crustal thickness, was taken into account in the host sources by adjusting the ground motion for a vertical fault to the ground motion for a non-vertical fault with multiple down-dip widths. The adjustment was calibrated to achieve accurate hazards at mean annual frequencies of exceedence (MAFEs) of 104 and 10-6 (LCI, 2015a).Ground motions were modeled for seven spectral frequencies (GeoPentech, 2015). The spectral frequencies were peak ground acceleration (PGA; equivalent to 100 Hz SA), 20 Hz SA, 10 Hz SA, 5 Hz SA, 2.5 Hz SA, 1 Hz SA, and 0.5 Hz SA. Seismic hazard was calculated for 20 ground motion amplitudes, which were 0.000001g, 0.0005g, 0.001g, 0.005g, 0.01g, 0.015g, 0.03g, 0.05g, 0.075g, 0.1g, 0.15g, 0.3g, 0.5g, 0.75g, 1.0g, 1.5g, 3.0g, 5.0g, 7.5g and 10.0g. All ground motion equations represented spectral accelerations at 5% of critical damping; as such, spectral amplitude results presented in this report represent spectral acceleration at 5% of critical damping.2.2.5 Mean Site Specific Rock Hazard Curves for Major Contributing Sources Figures 10 and 11 plot the mean site specific rock hazard for the PVNGS site for 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA.For both 10 Hz SA and I Hz SA, the area sources are the dominant contributors to hazard.10 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by Source Type 1E-3 1E-4 x-~-Mean 1E-5 4"'Area 1E_ "'Fauft El 1E-6___ -___1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 10 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 10. Site specific rock hazard curves showing total mean hazard and contributions from area sources and faults for 10 Hz SA. Note that the area source hazard and total mean hazard are almost identical.
Source: Figure I from LCI (LCI, 2015c).17 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 1 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by Source Type 1E-3 1E5 Mean--Area to--"6 Fault 0 1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 11. Site specific rock hazard curves showing total mean hazard and contributions from area sources and faults for I Hz SA. Source: Figure 2 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).For area sources there are the Two-Zone' and Seismotectonic 2 models, and for faults there are California-Mexico 3 faults and Greater AZ 4 faults. Figures 12 and 13 plot the seismic source contributions to the total mean hazard from these groups for 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA. For 10 Hz SA, the Seismotectonic and Two-Zone models are the dominant contributors to hazard. For 1 Hz SA at 10-4 MAFE, the Seismotectonic and Two-Zone models and California-Mexico faults are the dominant contributors to hazard; at 10-' MAFE and 10-6 MAFE, the Seismotectonic and Two-Zone models are the dominant contributors to hazard.Contributions from individual Seismotectonic and Two-Zone model sources for 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA are plotted in Figures 14 and 15. For both 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA, the Seismotectonic model, host source SBR is the dominant contributor to total area source hazard. Contributions from individual faults for 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA are plotted in Figures 16 and 17. For both 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA, the San Andreas (SAF), Cerro Prieto (CP), and San Jacinto (SJF) faults are the primary fault contributors to total mean hazard.Figures 18 and 19 show the total mean hazard and sensitivity of 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA site specific rock hazard to the SWUS RRUp based Common Form Model ground motion equations used in the hazard calculation from the Greater AZ faults and Greater AZ area sources 5.The key identifies individual equations as Models 1 through 31 (this follows the naming convention of GeoPentech 2015, which uses a discontinuous numbering system). The spread in hazard curves at 10 Hz SA is fairly small with the exception of Model 19 and Model 23. Note that in the SWUS GMC model, individual GMPEs are'The Two-Zone model comprises the East and West area sources.2 The Seismotectonic model comprises the SCABA, GULF, CP, TZ, MH, and SBR area sources.' California-Mexico faults are the AG, SAF, CP, SJF, LS, ELF, AB, BT, PMNT, PBMML, BC, and CH faults.4 Greater AZ faults are the ST, BCLC, HS, WVG, CF, and PE faults.5 Greater AZ area sources are the East from the Two-Zone model, and the SBR, MH, TZ, and CP from the Seismotectonic model.18 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 determined independently from frequency to frequency, so a particular GMPE number in Figure 18 does not correspond to that same GMPE number in Figure 19. Direct comparisons of the hazard curves between Figure 18 and 19 cannot be made because the GMPE numbers are not correlated.
10 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by Source Sub-Category 1E-3 S Mean 1E-4-Selsmotectonic 0 area 1E-5 -Two-Zone area C_. -Greater AZ faults'U1E-4 1E4- California-Mexico faults 1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 10 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 12. Site specific rock hazard curves showing total mean hazard Seismotectonic and Two-Zone models, and from California-Mexico faults and Hz SA. Source: Figure 3 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).and contributions from Greater AZ faults for 10 1 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by Source Sub-Category 1E-3* Mean:1E-4 X .Selsmotectonic jarea 1E-S -Two-Zone area*= -Greater AZ faults 1E4 _Callfornla-Mexica 1E-7 faults 1E-7, 0.01 0.1 1 10 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 13. Site specific rock hazard curves showing total mean hazard and contributions from Seismotectonic and Two-Zone models, and from California-Mexico faults and Greater AZ faults for 1 Hz SA. Source: Figure 4 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).19 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 10 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by Area Source 1E-3 a- -Mean C 114 ____________sBR U -East 1E-5 -GULF U'MH 0* -West 1E-6 _CP 1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 10 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 14. Site specific rock hazard curves showing total mean hazard and contributions from individual sources of the Seismotectonic and Two-Zone models for 10 Hz SA. Source: Figure 5 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).r1 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by Area Source 1E-3.=1E4 1E-$1E-S S U -Mean~ 114 ~zz SSR--SBR-East EU-GULF-MH-West_SCAR 1E-7 0.01 1 10--r 0.01 0.1 I 10 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 15. Site specific rock hazard curves showing total mean hazard and contributions from individual sources of the Seismotectonic and Two-Zone models for 1 Hz SA. Source: Figure 6 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).20 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 10 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by Fault-Mean Son Andreas 1E-3 T_C 1ES 1E4-6 C 1E-S 0.0 Sen Jadato-Laguna Salade-EaIIm-SandTanic-Pinto AIIH-Pisab Big Cthin CareFree 10 H4ado Willamso 0.1 1 10 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 16. Site specific rock hazard curves showing total mean hazard and contributions from individual California-Mexico faults and Greater AZ faults for 10 Hz SA. Source: Figure 7 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).1 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by Fault IE-3 1ES 1E-S C-Mean-Son Andreas Sea Jacinto-Saendrank-AgueBaenom
-PnsMntnM CareFree 0 Horseshoe-Ploros MONIS 1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g)1 Figure 17. Site specific rock hazard curves showing total mean hazard and contributions from individual California-Mexico faults and Greater AZ faults for 1 Hz SA. Source: Figure 8 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).21 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 10 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by SWUS Common Model GMPE for Greater AZ Faults and Area Sources -MEAN-Model 1 1E-3 --hMcind- MoeMd147-Model 4-Model 7Modle 1 S1E- Model 11 1E -Model 18 Model 1U N~-Maodl 14 I:: 154-Model is 1E-5 Model 17 Model is Model 13 Model 20 Model 22 S1E-6 Model 23 C Model 24 Model 26 1E-7 model 27 0.01 0.1 1 10 Meoid28 10 Hz spectral acceleration (g) M11d 30 model 31 Figure 18. Sensitivity to the SWUS Rup based Common Form model GMPEs from the Greater AZ faults and area sources for 10 Hz SA. Hazard curves do not include weights on each alternative.
Source: Figure 16 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).1 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by SWUS Common Model GMPE for Greater AZ Faults and Area Sources --IE-3-Model4 1- Model a S-Model 10 4 -Model 1 Model 14--Modlel 15-Model 17 1E-S -Me" i C-Model 19______ ______ _____M0de201E4Model 21 IE-6 1m1d 24-Model 25 Model 27 1E.7 Model 2n 0.01 0.1 1 10 Moe 29 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g) Model 30 Model 31 Figure 19. Sensitivity to the SWUS Rup based Common Form model GMPEs from the Greater AZ faults and area sources for 1 Hz SA. Hazard curves do not include weights on each alternative.
Source: Figure 17 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).22 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Figure 20 shows the total mean hazard and sensitivity of 1 Hz SA site specific rock hazard to the SWUS NGA-W2 GMPEs (which were modified for path approach and magnitude-scaling uncertainty).
These GMPEs were used to calculate hazard from the California-Mexico faults and from area sources6 in California and Mexico. The key in Figure 20 identifies individual GMPEs as follows: ASK is Abrahamson, Silva, and Kanai (Abrahamson et al., 2014), BSSA is Boore, Stewart, Seyhan, and Atkinson (Boore et al., 2014), CB is Campbell and Bozorgnia (Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2014), CY is Chiou and Youngs (Chiou and Youngs, 2014), and ID is Idriss (Idriss, 2014). At 1 Hz SA the ASK GMPE calculates the highest hazard and the ID GMPE calculates the lowest hazard. Figure 21 shows the total mean hazard and sensitivity of I Hz SA site specific rock hazard to the SWUS path approach modification to the NGA-W2 model ground motion equations used in the hazard calculations from the California-Mexico faults and area sources. For 1 Hz SA, the "YES" path approach gives a lower hazard than the "NO" path approach by a factor of 10 to 50.Figures 22 and 23 show the total mean hazard and sensitivity of 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA site specific rock hazard to the sigma model epistemic branches used in the hazard calculation from the Greater AZ faults and area sources in the Greater AZ region. These figures show a moderate sensitivity to the sigma model.Figure 24 shows the total mean hazard and sensitivity of 1 Hz SA site specific rock hazard to the sigma model epistemic uncertainty branches used in the hazard calculation from the California-Mexico faults and area sources. This figure shows somewhat more sensitivity to the sigma model than Figure 23 shows for the Greater AZ faults and area sources in the Greater AZ region. Taken together, Figures 20 through 24 indicate that the sigma models "High" epistemic uncertainty branch produces the highest hazard.Figures 25 and 26 show the sensitivity of the SBR source hazard at 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA to maximum magnitude.
Figure 26 shows the 1 Hz SA SBR source hazard has a moderate sensitivity to the maximum magnitude.
These figures show that the SBR source hazard has a larger sensitivity to the maximum magnitude at the lower frequencies than at the higher frequencies.
Figures 27 through 32 show the deaggregation of hazard by magnitude and distance for spectral accelerations corresponding to MAFEs of 104, 105, and 10-6. Plots for each MAFE show the deaggregation of hazard for high (5 and 10 Hz SA) and low (1 and 2.5 Hz SA) spectral frequencies.
For high frequencies, local small-magnitude earthquakes dominate at all MAFE levels. For low frequencies and a 10-4 MAFE, a bimodal distribution of local, small-magnitude earthquakes and distant, large-magnitude earthquakes are dominant contributors to seismic hazard. For low frequencies and a 10-5 MAFE, local, large-magnitude earthquakes dominate.
The low frequency 10-6 MAFE hazard deaggregation plot shows that moderate magnitude earthquakes at close distances dominate the hazard.Table I summarizes the mean magnitude and mean distance results from the deaggregation of hazard.Note that magnitudes indicated in Table I are on the moment magnitude scale.6 Area sources in California and Mexico are the West from the Two-Zone model, and SCABA, and GULF from the Seismotectonic model.23 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 1 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by SWUS GMPE Model for California-Mexico Faults and Area Sources 1E-3-MEAN a -ASK IE-5 _8SSA C-cs M IE-6 -I IE-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 20. Sensitivity to the SWUS NGA-W2 GMPEs path approach for California-Mexico faults and area sources for 1 Hz SA. Hazard curves do not include weights on each alternative.
Source: Figure 18 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).1 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by SWUS GMPE 'YES'and 'NO' Path Branches for California-Mexico Faults and Area Sources 1E-3 C"* 1E-4 o -"MEAN 1E-S -No C 10 -Yes-1E-6 -_______1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 21. Sensitivity to the SWUS NGA-W2 modified for path approach for California-Mexico faults and area sources in California and Mexico for 1 Hz SA. Hazard curves do not include weights on each alternative.
Source: Figure 19 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).24 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 10 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by SWUS Common Model GMPE Sigma for Greater AZ Fault and Area Sources 1E-3 C IE-4 1ES I. -MEAN 9 -High" 1E-6 -Central C -Low 1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 10 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 22. Sensitivity to the epistemic uncertainty in sigma model for faults and Greater AZ region for 10 Hz SA. Hazard curves do not include weights on each Figure 20 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).area sources in the alternative.
Source: 1 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by SWUS Common Model GMPE Sigma for Greater AZ Faults and Area Sources IE-3 C 0~1E,4-MEAN 1E-5 -High 1O -Central 1E6 "--_--Low C C 1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 23. Sensitivity to the epistemic uncertainty in sigma model from faults and area sources in the Greater AZ region for 1 Hz SA. Hazard curves do not include weights on each alternative.
Source: Figure 21 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).25 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 1 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by SWUS GMPE Sigma for California-Mexico Faults and Area Sources 1E-3 1E-4 S1E-5 -MEAN-High tO 1E4 -LOW C 1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 24. Sensitivity to the epistemic uncertainty in sigma model from California-Mexico faults and area sources for 1 Hz SA. Hazard curves do not include weights on each alternative.
Source: Figure 22 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).SBR 10 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by Maximum Magnitude 1E-3 I 1E-4 UM 7.9 M 7.5 1 E-5 M 7.2* M 7.0 114 M lAJ 1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 10 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 25. Sensitivity to maximum magnitude for the SBR source for 10 Hz SA. Hazard curves do not include weights on each alternative.
Source: Figure 23 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).26 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 SBR 1 Hz Site Specific Rock Hazard at Palo Verde, by Maximum Magnitude 1E-3 C 1E-4-M 7.9 M 7.-~1E-5 -M 7.2 C IM 7.0-u s"II-M 6.8 f 1E4-1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 10 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 26. Sensitivity to maximum magnitude for the SBR source for I Hz SA. Hazard curves do not include weights on each alternative.
Source: Figure 24 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).Deaggregation of High Frequency 1E-4 hazard at Palo Verde N 0 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 .-n n2 0 A5 ,. 25 dw ~ 4W W5.7i-4"" 6.75-W'- 7.25_ 7'/ 7.75 5 1530 Distance, km-'8.25 Figure 27. Deaggregation of site specific rock hazard for 104 MAFE at spectral frequencies of 5 and 10 Hz SA. Source: Figure 34 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).27 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Deaggregation of Low Frequency 1E-4 hazard at Palo Verde 0.05 --'-0.04. ~ -- --~0.03 0.02 ------4v -6.25 5 15 3050 70 9071101301501 9 --7.75 Dsac5170 90 60 .2 itce, kr 20 2603 340 40o Figure 28. Deaggregation of site specific rock hazard for 10.4 MAFE at spectral frequencies of 1 and 2.5 Hz SA. Source: Figure 35 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).Deaggregation of High Frequency 1E-5 hazard at Palo Verde 0 U 0.16 .... ....0 .14 -, --0.12 0.1 0.08 0.04 6 *- -....,. -.0.06 -d~d AW 4W:;~0.02 d AN'4 _-- --5.25 Ao -a 4 "- -_ 5.75 0 3 ,-, 6.25 5o 4o11 1o -40" 40" 6.7 " Y' 5 150 So70 4--' AP4 ,W M 1 7.25 1- -8 65.7 Distan 1 7 0 190 2202- -- 8.25 Ce, km 3 340400 3 Figure 29. Deaggregation of site specific rock hazard for 10-5 MAFE at spectral frequencies of 5 and 10 Hz SA. Source: Figure 36 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).28 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Deaggregation of Low Frequency 1E-5 hazard at Palo Verde 0.14 ----------
0.12T-0.1 T-o 0.08 --o 0.06-C0.04 d 0.02 PA,-0 0, __ 401 __ 5.25.... 6 o .25 i 00 6.75 5 15 30 50 70 90 1 -.25 0110130 77 Distanc k10 190 220 260 1-- 8.25 90 220 20300 340 400 Figure 30. Deaggregation of site specific rock hazard for 10-5 MAFE at spectral frequencies of I and 2.5 Hz SA. Source: Figure 37 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).Deaggregation of High Frequency 1E-6 hazard at Palo Verde 0.2 0.15 -I.C-25 o 0 5 -. -u5 , 4 / 72 0 AV 4W _ 5.75 00 , 0. 6.25 110 -' " 725 50 70 90 11013 4W_ 2 7.7 1.,. 170 190 -rn r-..,. D iS ta n c e , k m 2 2 2 6 0 3 0 0 3 4 0 .0.n "'" 340 400 \Figure 31. Deaggregation of site specific rock hazard for 10.6 MAFE at spectral frequencies of 5 and 10 Hz SA. Source: Figure 38 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).29 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Deaggregation of Low Frequency 1E-6 hazard at Palo Verde N 0 0 U 0.25 i--0.2 0.155-0.1-AW low~0.05 ..- --AW __ -- -5.25 I _4W 01 Id AW .. " t p, 4,4.8 ' " 5.75 0 F4 -AOP A t , W " " 6.25 1530507:: -a *.. 4 AP o- 70 zgo 1113 , __ -o' 9 ....., 7.. __/ .75 b,,o ane, k2260 -Distance, 5"'190 300 -40'400 4 Figure 32. Deaggregation of site specific rock hazard for 10-6 MAFE at spectral frequencies of I and 2.5 Hz SA. Source: Figure 39 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).Table 1. Deaggregation results for MAFE 10-4 , 10-5, and 10-6 high and low frequencies.
MAFE 10 4 MAFE 10-5 MAFE 10-6 Magnitude Distance (km)Magnitude Distance (kim)Magnitude Distance (km)High-Frequency 6.1 21 6.2 9 6.3 7 Low-Frequency 7.4* 210* 7.6* 200* 6.8 9*M and R calculated for R > 100 km, because the contribution to hazard for R >of the total hazard (U.S.NRC, 2007). Source: Table 3 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).100 km is more than 5%30 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 2.2.6 Total Mean Seismic Site Specific Rock Hazard Curves Figure 33 plots total mean hazard curves for the seven spectral frequencies at which hazard calculations were conducted.
The individual hazard curves are also documented in tabular form in Table 2.Site Specific Rock Hazard by Spectral Frequency at Palo Verde 1E-3 -S1E-4 1ES U.M21E-6 4c x 5 Hz I. -10Hz 4 1E-5 2.5 Hz S -20 Hz-5' Hz 10 Hz 2.5 Hz--20 Hi-PGA-1 Hz*0.5 Hz 1E-7 1*0.01 0.1 1 10 Spectral acceleration (g)Figure 33. Total mean site specific rock hazard curves for seven spectral frequencies.
Source: Figure 25 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).31 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table 2. Total mean site specific rock hazard for seven spectral frequencies.
Source: Table 2 from LCI (LCI, 2015c).Spectral acceleration g 0.5 Hz 1 Hz 2.5 Hz 5 Hz 10 Hz 20 Hz PGA 0.000001 1.60E+00 1.60E+00 1.60E+00 1.60E+00 1.59E+00 1.59E+00 1.59E+00 0.0005 3.07E-01 5.90E-01 8.87E-01 7.16E-01 5.39E-01 5.12E-01 4.80E-01 0.001 1.74E-01 3.50E-01 5.52E-01 4.35E-01 3.12E-01 2.95E-01 2.59E-01 0.005 1.94E-02 5.61E-02 1.03E-01 7.51E-02 4.87E-02 4.80E-02 3.27E-02 0.01 4.58E-03 1.62E-02 3.44E-02 2.47E-02 1.62E-02 1.64E-02 9.47E-03 0.015 1.73E-03 6.84E-03 1.59E-02 1.18E-02 7.99E-03 8.12E-03 4.29E-03 0.03 2.77E-04 1.31E-03 3.61E-03 3.14E-03 2.34E-03 2.27E-03 1.07E-03 0.05 6.63E-05 3.55E-04 1.14E-03 1.18E-03 9.66E-04 8.75E-04 3.97E-04 0.075 2.11E-05 1.23E-04 4.61E-04 5.53E-04 4.87E-04 4.15E-04 1.84E-04 0.1 9.38E-06 5.84E-05 2.45E-04 3.25E-04 3.01E-04 2.47E-04 1.07E-04 0.15 2.94E-06 2.09E-05 1.02E-04 1.56E-04 1.52E-04 1.20E-04 5.00E-05 0.3 3.54E-07 3.69E-06 2.34E-05 4.39E-05 4.54E-05 3.44E-05 1.23E-05 0.5 6.30E-08 9.37E-07 7.45E-06 1.62E-05 1.70E-05 1.28E-05 3.70E-06 0.75 1.43E-08 2.81E-07 2.74E-06 6.70E-06 7.15E-06 5.36E-06 1.24E-06 I 4.66E-09 1.11E-07 1.25E-06 3.35E-06 3.62E-06 2.73E-06 5.30E-07 1.5 8.68E- 10 2.72E-08 3.72E-07 1.13E-06 1.26E-06 9.65E-07 1.43E-07 3 3.60E- 11 1.87E-09 3.50E-08 1.29E-07 1.54E-07 1.25E-07 1.14E-08 5 2.61E-12 2.02E-10 4.86E-09 2.05E-08 2.64E-08 2.24E-08 1.39E-09 7.5 2.73E-13 2.92E-11 8.68E-10 4.14E-09 5.69E-09 5.05E-09 2.23E-10 10 4.99E-14 6.71E-12 2.34E-10 1.22E-09 1.78E-09 1.64E-09 5.55E-11 2.3 Site Response Evaluation A site response analysis was performed for PVNGS following the guidance contained in Seismic Enclosure I of the 10 CFR 50.54(f) letter (U.S.NRC, 2012a) and in the Screening, Prioritization, and Implementation Details (SPID) (EPRI, 2013) for nuclear power plant sites that are not founded on hard rock (defined as 2.83 km/s).2.3.1 Description of Subsurface Material The subsurface material at PVNGS consists of about 350 ft of basin sediments overlying bedrock, with a crystalline basement complex at a depth of about 1,200 feet below the ground surface. Basin sediments include stratigraphic subdivisions of sands, gravels, clays, silts, and fanglomerate.
Bedrock consists of Miocene volcanic and interbedded sedimentary rocks. The basement complex comprises Precambrian granitic and metamorphic rocks (UFSAR, Rev. 17). In the following site response analysis, these materials are divided into two representative site geologic profiles, a shallow site profile and deep site profile, that are separated at the bottom of the basin sediments.
32 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 2.3.2 Development of Base Case Profiles and Nonlinear Material Properties Shallow Site Profile: The PVNGS shallow site profile (LCI, 2015d) was developed from detailed lithologic descriptions and natural gamma logs from UFSAR and PSAR documents to define stratigraphic horizons of similar composition and texture. Boring logs from beneath each of the three reactors are shown in Figure 34. A composite shallow stratigraphic profile (Figure 35) was created by averaging the thickness and properties of each correlative horizon. Mean layer depths and their variability as well as best-estimates of shear wave velocity (Vs) and unit weight are provided in Table 3. The control point elevation for this profile is defined at the ground surface.Best-estimate values in Table 3 make up the base-case shallow site profile. These Vs values were estimated from suspension logs (LCI, 201Sf), downhole and crosshole surveys from the UFSAR and Spectral Analysis of Surface Waves (SASW) surveys (LCI, 2015g). Epistemic uncertainty (oYlv,) was estimated for shear wave velocities in the base-case (BC) profile from the different measurements that were used to develop best-estimate values, and is provided for each layer in Table 3. Upper-range (UR)and lower-range (LR) profiles were developed by multiplying and dividing the BC profile by exp(1.2 8*01vs), following guidance in the SPID to achieve 10h and 90h percentile values. BC, LR, and UR Vs profiles are provided in Figure 36 and Table 4. Note that the UR profile does not include a lithologic layer of fanglomerate to account for its possible non-existence.
33 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 DISTANCE BETWEEN BORINGS RELATIVE TO Ul-B1 (feel)0 1195 2390 UI-B1 U2-BI U3-BI (elev. 963') (Olev. 956') (Olev. 960')950, 900, 850.,, 8M.. I0<w I LU V 20 2 750.I-J w.1 UTHOLOGIC UNITS-700 .SAND CLAY Z M iM SAND IV I~ CLAY_j SAND LU 650 1o ao VIII CLAY SAND X I FANGLOMERATE GENERALZED UTHILOGIC DESCRIPTIONS
-,I [I]I SAND: rand, illy clayey sand, or sandy sI 550.. CLAY wit SAND: tamny clay or layey sand.410 410 X 40 -CLAY: afy clay, sandy day. olmysy sit.FANGLOMERATE:
red brolao, hard, angtlar to oL-_ a.hdar. poorly aded slaitS in say sand matrix 40 + SANDY TUFF and CLAY: -d to gray, -r.dely stratllad.
I NTERLAYERED FLOW BRECCIAS and FLO-S-gray. hard, moderalaly to highly fractured.
ANDESITE purple gray. hard, aphandtc, Figure 34. PVNGS Units 1, 2, and 3 generalized boring stratigraphy modified from Units 1, 2, and 3 B 1 borings PSAR, Amendment
- 20. Lithologic units are identified with Roman numerals I-X. Source: Figure 2 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).34 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Uthologic Description I -SAND. yellow to red to brown. sand with thin irregular beds of silt, clayey-sift, and silty-clay Depth (f)0(It msl)953-940 Unit contact (dapthelev) 920 S900 51/901-880 860 M.840 II -CLAY. yellow to red to brown, clayey-silt and silty-clay with lenses of fine-grained sand and silty-sand
-820.800 159/794 166/786 780 186/767.760 205/748.740 720 230/723 "J 237/715 LW 700 0 Ir.680 >*660--0.660 -III -SAND: brown, sandy-silt.
silty sand, and sandy-clay IV -CLAY: brown, silty-clay, clayey-silt, low to medr plasticity, noncalcareous to slightly calcareous, very stiff to hard V -SAND: brown to red-brown silty-sand, sandy-silt, and clayey sand, very stiff to hard, nonplastic to low plasticity paraconformity VI -CLAY: yellow to red-brown, silty-clay, very stiff to hard, distinct upper contact, slightly to highly calcareous, med. to high plasticity VII -SAND: sandy-silt and silty sand, brown, non-plastic VIII -CLAY: yellow to red-brown, silty-clay, clayey-silt.
sandy-silt, silty-sand,sandy-clay, clayey-sand, calcareous, very stiff to hard, high plasticity311/642 620 600 580 IX -SAND: brown to red-brown, sand, silty-sand, and clayey-sand, occasional gravel clasts, subangular to subrounded, dense to very dense, very stiff to hard 341/612 unconformity X -FANGLOMERATE:
brown to gray, moderately to well cemented volcanic clasts derived from underlying bedrock in a matrix of sand, silt and occasionally tuffaoeous sand, elevation of upper contact and thickness of unit vary across the site 560 395/558 major unconformity GENERALIZED LITHOLOGY Sand Clay B Fanglorerate I LrrHOLOGIC UNIT Xl -BEDROCK. see deep profile figure Figure 35. Shallow site stratigraphic column for the PVNGS site. Source: Figure 5 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).35 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Vs (tt/sec)2000 0 1000 3000 4000 0-LR-BC-UR 100 150 t_)200 2A0 300 350 400 450 Figure 36. Shallow shear wave velocity profiles for PVNGS: base-case (BC), lower-range (LR), and upper-range (UR). Note that the UR profile ends at a depth of 340 ft. Source: Figure 32 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).36 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table 3. Dynamic properties of shallow site prfile. Source: Table 9 from LCI (LCI, 2 015d)Strati- Unit Sigma Base Srt- Generalized Depth Thickness Unt SgaCase sigma sigma Layer graphic lithlzed (Dt) (it) Weight Depth Vs Vs Vs (In)Unit (pce) (0t) (Vt/s) (in) [SPID]1 I Sand 0 21 120 0.0 1017 0.070 0.23 2 I Sand 21 14 120 3.2 1041 0.088 0.19 3 1 Sand 35 10 120 5.4 1150 0.075 0.17 4 I Sand 45 7 120 6.9 1181 0.063 0.15 5 II Clay 52 60 125' 8.0 1208 0.087 0.15 6 II Clay 112 25 125' 3.5 1293 0.073 0.15 7 II Clay 137 22 125' 4.3 1391 0.073 0.15 8 III Sand 159 8 126' 5.0 1432 0.055 0.15 9 IV Clay 167 19 125' 8.0 1446 0.049 0.15 10 V Sand 186 19 1262 2.0 1459 0.050 0.15 11 VI Clay 205 5 125' 5.0 1510 0.103 0.15 12 VI Clay 210 20 125' 1.8 1742 0.145 0.15 13 VII Sand 230 8 1262 2.0 1829 0.160 0.15 14 VIII Clay 238 52 125' 1.0 2094 0.127 0.15 15 VIII Clay 290 21 125' 15.9 2094 0.127 0.15 16 IX Sand 311 30 130 17.0 2094 0.127 0.15 17 X Fanglomerate 341 86 140 60.0 3262 0.176 0.15 Bed- Andesite/XI basalt/flow 427 N/A 3 140 83 4485 N/A 3 N/A 3 breccia/tuff Notes: 1125 pcf is the average unit weight of all clay units. The unit weights for all clay units are averaged for the sake of simplicity in the site response analysis.2126 pcf is the average unit weight of Sand Units III, V, and VII. The average is used for the sake of simplicity in the site response analysis.3 In the site response analysis for shallow profile, Unit XI is considered as the half space.37 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table 4. Layer depths, thicknesses, and shear wave velocities (Vs) for lower-range (LR), base-case (BC), and upper-range (UR) profiles for the shallow site profile at PVNGS. Source: Table 10 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).Depth Thickness Vs (ft/sec)__
Layer (ft) (fi) LR BC UR 1 0 21 929 1017 1113 2 21 15 930 1041 1165 3 35 10 1046 1150 1266 4 45 7 1090 1181 1280 5 52 60 1081 1208 1351 6 112 25 1178 1293 1419 7 137 22 1266 1391 1528 8 159 8 1334 1432 1536 9 167 19 1359 1446 1540 10 186 19 1369 1459 1555 11 205 5 1324 1510 1723 12 210 20 1448 1742 2098 13 230 8 1489 1829 2245 14 238 52 1780 2094 2462 15 290 21 1560 2094 2462 16 311 30 1560 2094 2462 17 341 86 2603 3262 N/A 38 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Deep Site Profile: The PVNGS deep site profile was developed in LCI Calculation Adjustment Factors from Reference Rock to Palo Verde Rock (LCI, 2015b) and LCI (LCI, 2015d) from data presented in the UFSAR and Geological Society of America Bulletin A seismic-refraction survey of crustal structure in central Arizona (Warren, 1969) to model the bedrock and basement complex materials.
There are no borings underneath the three units that reach the top of the basement complex, so the upper contact is estimated using a geologic cross-section from the UFSAR that shows the shallow and deep stratigraphy at the site (Figure 37). Mean layer depths and their variability as well as best-estimates of Vs and unit weight are provided in Table 5. The control point elevation for this profile is defined at the bottom of the shallow site profile.Best-estimate values in Table 5 make up the base-case deep site profile. These Vs values were estimated from suspension (LCI, 2015f) for bedrock. Vs for the basement complex was determined using typical seismic wave velocities for granodiorite due to the absence of site specific data. Epistemic uncertainty was estimated for Vs in the BC profile using a logarithmic standard deviation of 0.35 as recommended by the SPID (EPRI, 2013).Just like the shallow site profile, UR and LR Vs values were developed by multiplying and dividing the BC profile value by exp(1.2 8*OInVs), respectively.
Uncertainty in the thickness of each layer was accounted for in the LR and UR deep site profiles.
For the volcanics, this uncertainty was determined from boring logs as described in LCI (LCI, 2015d). For the upper basement layers, this uncertainty was taken as 10 percent of each respective mean thickness.
The LR and UR profiles were constructed by pairing 9 0 th percentile Vs with 10th percentile thickness (and vice versa) in order to maximize the variation in travel time, in a manner similar to what is done in EPRI (EPRI, 2013). The three resulting Vs profiles are shown in Figure 38 and Table 6.' 10 R T 4iK A A'.0.1 eli-ia-13 U!ThO!,OGIC DESCRIPTIONI A
~~ UIJ C tL (P ,e lAPS INfl1,eliT t :B..E N O UILE Figure 37. Geologic cross-section showing the shallow and deep stratigraphy at the PVNGS site;modified from UFSAR Figure 2.4-27. The map in plan view on the right shows the cross-section line, as noted by A-A'; map is modified from PSAR Figure 2.5-13. Note that Units 1-3 are west of the cross-section line, between borings PV-21 and PV-24. Source: Figure 8 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).39 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table 5. Dynamic properties of deep site profile. Source: Table 16 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).Depth Unit Mean Mean Vs Poisson's Elevation Mean Sigma, Strat. Generalized to top weight Vs Vp Sigma Ratio Thickness Thickness unit lithology of layer (ft) (pcf) (ft/sec) (ft/sec) (In) Mean, Top Sigma, Range +, Range -, (ft msl) Top 3 Top Top (ft) (ft)(___msl)_Top_(ft)___(ft msl) (ft msl)Andesite/XI basalt/flow 395 140 4485 9863 0.35 0.370 558 83 641 475 808 145 breccia/ tuff Weathered XII granodiorite/
1203 146' 5438 10786 0.35 0.330 -250 N/A N/A N/A 20 10 meta-granite (top)Weathered XII granodiorite/
1223 152' 7343 12632 0.35 0.245 -270 N/A N/A N/A 20 10 meta-granite (middle)Weathered XII granodiorite/
1243 157' 9248 14477 0.35 0.155 -290 N/A N/A N/A 20 10 meta-granite (bottom)XI Granodiorite/
1263 1712 10200 15400 0.35 0.109 -310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A meta-granite Notes: 1Unit weight for the weathered basement complex is determined from Vp.2 Unit weight for unweathered basement complex is determined from Warren (Warren, 1969).3 Sigma top is only calculated for Andesite XI for use in shallow site profile site response calculations.
Sigma is calculated using top elevation contact of bedrock from Units 1-3 B 1 boreholes (Figure 34).40 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Vs (m/s)0 1000 2000 3000 4000 0 500 0 0 1000 0.2 1500 0 E 0""* 2000 2500 3000 Figure 38. Deep shear wave velocity profiles for PVNGS. A depth of 0 corresponds to the bottom of the shallow profile (soils). Also shown are the Warren (Warren, 1969) and SWUS GMC (GeoPentech, 2015)profiles.
Source: Figure 1 from LCI (LCI, 2015b).41 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table 6. Lower-range (LR), base-case (BC), and upper-range (UR) profiles for the deep site profile at PVNGS. Source: LCI (LCI, 2015d).Lower Range Profile (low velocities, thicker layers, base-case density);weight = 0.3 Description Thickness (m) Vs (m/s)Volcanic bedrock sequence 324.2 873.4 Basement (shallow; weathered top) 10.0 1,059.0 Basement (shallow; weathered middle) 10.0 1,430.0 Basement (shallow; weathered bottom) 10.0 1,800.9 Basement (shallow) 1,784.2 1,986.3 Basement (deep) 22,560.0 3,680.0 Base Case Profile (median Values all parameters);
weight = 0.4 Description Thickness (m) Vs (m/s)Volcanic bedrock sequence 267.6 1,367.0 Basement (shallow; weathered top) 6.1 1,657.5 Basement (shallow; weathered middle) 6.1 2,238.1 Basement (shallow; weathered bottom) 6.1 2,818.8 Basement (shallow) 1,581.7 3,109.0 Basement (deep) 20,000.0 3,680.0 Upper Range Profile (high velocities, thinner layers, base case density);weight = 0.3 Description Thickness (m) Vs (m/s)Volcanic bedrock sequence 211.0 2,139.6 Basement (shallow; weathered top) 2.2 2,594.3 Basement (shallow; weathered middle) 2.2 3,503.1 Basement (shallow; weathered bottom) 2.2 3,680.0 Basement (shallow) 1,379.3 3,680.0 Basement (deep) 17,440.0 3,680.0 2.3.2.1 Shear Modulus and Damping Curves Site specific nonlinear dynamic material properties were not available for PVNGS for the soils and firm rock that comprise the shallow site profile. The soil material over the shallow site profile was modeled with both the EPRI cohesionless soil (EPRI, 1993) and Peninsular Range (Silva et al., 1996) G/Gmax and hysteretic damping curves while the clay material was modeled using Vucetic and Dobry (Vucetic and Dobry, 1991) values. Consistent with the SPID (EPRI, 2013), the EPRI soil and Peninsular Range curves were considered to be equally appropriate to represent the more nonlinear response likely to occur in the materials at this site. Only Vucetic and Dobry (Vucetic and Dobry, 1991) curves were used to model the nonlinear response of the clay layers. The generic degradation curves of Vucetic and Dobry (Vucetic and Dobry, 1991) were developed with a wide range of clay data and are judged to be the best equivalent-42 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 linear material model available.
Table 7 summarizes the alternative material properties applied to each layer.Table 7. Degradation curves for each stratigraphic unit at PVNGS. Source: Table 14 from LCI (LCI 2015d)._____
Degradation Degradation Layer Stratigraphic Generalized Depth Thickness Curves Curves Unit lithology (ft) (ft) (Alternative
- 1) (Alternative 2)EPRI Soil Peninsular Curves 1 I Sand 0 210-ft-St 0-20 ft 0-50 ft EPRI Soil Peninsular Curves 2 1 Sand 21 14 2-0f -0f 20-50 ft 0-50 ft EPRI Soil Peninsular Curves 3 1 Sand 35 10200ft-St 20-50 ft 0-50 ft EPRI Soil Peninsular Curves 4 1 Sand 45 7 2-~t0Sf 20-50 ft 0-50 ft Vucetic and Dobry Vucetic and Dobry (1991)-PI=30 (1991)-PI=30 Vucetic and Dobry Vucetic and Dobry (1991)-PI=30 (1991)-PI=30 Vucetic and Dobry Vucetic and Dobry (1991)-PI=30 (1991)-PI=30 EPRI Soil Peninsular Curves 120-250 ft 51-500 ft Vucetic and Dobry Vucetic and Dobry (1991)-PI=30 (1991)-PI=30 EPRI Soil Peninsular Curves 120-250 ft 51-500 ft Vucetic and Dobry Vucetic and Dobry (1991)-PI=30 (1991)-PI=30 Vucetic and Dobry Vucetic and Dobry (1991)-PI=30 (1991)-PI=30 EPRI Soil Peninsular Curves 13 VII Sand 230 8 1020f 150f 120-250 ft 51-500 ft Vucetic and Dobry Vucetic and Dobry (1991)-PI=30 (1991)-PI=30 Vucetic and Dobry Vucetic and Dobry (1991)-PI=30 (1991)-PI=30 EPRI Soil Peninsular Curves 16 IX Sand 311 30 20S~t5-Of 250-500 ft 51-500 ft EPRI Soil Peninsular Curves 17 X Fanglomerate 341 86ft 43 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Shear modulus and damping curves were not required for the deep site profile. Strains will remain low in such firm materials at the depths represented by this profile, so it is not necessary to model nonlinear behavior.2.3.2.2 Kappa Adjustment factors were developed in LCI (LCI, 2015b) to convert ground motions from the reference rock associated with the GMPEs from the SWUS GMC (GeoPentech, 2015) to site specific rock conditions at PVNGS corresponding to the deep site profile described above. These Vs-kappa 7 adjustments consist of two parts. The first part accounts for impedance differences.
This part can be calculated using the Quarter-wavelength approach (Boore and Joyner, 1997; Boore, 2003, 2013) and affects all frequencies.
The second part accounts for the differences in kappa. It has an exponential form and affects mainly the high frequencies.
The net adjustment factor (in Fourier-amplitude space) is the ratio of the target filter (for site specific rock) divided by the host filter (for reference rock). Multiple values of this factor were calculated to account for uncertainty in the inputs.The host kappa value for SWUS GMPEs was taken as 0.041 sec (GeoPentech, 2015), and the target kappa value at PVNGS was taken as 0.033 sec with a logarithmic standard deviation of 0.5 (GeoPentech, 2015).The BC target kappa value is 0.033 sec, and the associated uncertainty was used to derive the I0th and 90'h percentiles for a LR and UR value, respectively.
The BC, LR, and UR target kappas were combined with each of the BC, LR, and UR deep site profiles in LCI (LCI, 2015d) to get nine sets of adjustment factors (Table A-I in Appendix A and Figure 39). The weights applied to the {BC, LR, UR} kappa alternatives and {BC, LR, UR} Vs profile alternatives were each {0.4, 0.3, 0.3}, respectively.
The resulting combined weights for the nine sets of adjustment factors are provided in Table A-I in Appendix A.7 Vs is the shear wave velocity; kappa is a quantity that represents the anelastic attenuation in the upper crust. In the nomenclature of Anderson and Hough (Anderson and Hough, 1984), the kappa used in this calculation corresponds to kappa-zero, as it captures attenuation effects in the upper crust, rather than whole-path attenuation.
44 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 10 A-0 EI M 1 0.1 0.1 1 10 Frequency (Hz)100-LB Profile, LB kappa (0.09)-LB Profile, UIB kappa (0.09)-Median Profile, Median kappa (0.16)-UB Profile, LB kappa (0.09)-LB Profile, Median kappa (0.12)-Median Profile, LB kappa (0.12)-Median Profile, UB kappa (0.12)--UB Profile, Median kappa (0.12)'--UB Profile, UB kappa (0.09)Figure 39. Adjustment factors to convert ground motions from SWUS reference rock to PVNGS rock conditions.
Although some of these adjustment factors become very large at high frequencies (as a result of the kappa adjustments), the SWUS GMC (GeoPentech, 2015) rock motions have zero or no energy at these frequencies (say, above 20 Hz). Therefore, the effect on spectral accelerations is expected to be much smaller than the effect shown here. Source: Figure 2 from LCI (LCI, 2015b).45 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 2.3.3 Randomization of Shear Wave Velocity Profiles Randomization of each profile (BC, LR, UR) was performed to account for aleatory variability of the assigned properties across the site at the scale of a typical nuclear facility.
The following properties were randomized: " Shear wave velocity in each layer. SPID (EPRI, 2013) guidance was followed.
Aleatory variability of shear wave velocities (Vs) in each layer was modeled in a depth-dependent manner using the logarithmic standard deviations provided in Table 3. For all layers, shear wave velocities were truncated to +/-2 a,,vs. Correlation of Vs between adjacent layers was also modeled according to Toro (Toro, 1995) using USGS site class "A" parameters (which are for hard rock). Note that the depth used to determine variability and correlation corresponds to the middle of each layer.* Material properties.
SPID guidance was followed.
Realizations were truncated at +/-2 a,. for both G/Gmax and damping curves." Profile layer depths and thicknesses.
Depth to the top of each layer was modeled using a Normal distribution.
The mean and standard deviation used for this model were the values provided in Table 3. Each realization of depth to the top of a given layer was limited to +/-2o.* Depth to bedrock. Depth to the bedrock was modeled using a Normal distribution.
The mean and standard deviation used for this model were the values provided in Table 3. Each realization of depth to the top of bedrock was limited to +/-2(y." Kappa. Kappa was modified per Section 2.3.2.2 to adjust SWUS GMPEs to site specific PVNGS rock conditions.
Sixty random velocity profiles were generated for each combination of profile (BC, LR, and UR), material model (EPRI or Peninsular values), input spectrum (Refer to Section 2.3.4), and set of adjustment factors (Refer to Section 2.3.2.2).2.3.4 Input Spectra Input control motions were obtained using previously calculated reference-rock hazard for PVNGS (LCI, 2105a). Both the high-frequency (HF; derived from hazard at 5 Hz and 10 Hz spectral frequencies) and low-frequency (LF; derived from hazard at 1 Hz and 2.5 Hz spectral frequencies) spectra from LCI (LCI, 2015a) at mean annual frequencies of exceedence (MAFEs) of 10-4, 10-5, and 10-6 were scaled to 11 different PGA amplitudes between 0.01 g and 1.5 g (for a total of 22 input control motions) following guidance from the SPID. The 11 PGA amplitudes are approximately equally spaced (logarithmically) within that range. The HF or LF spectrum with the nearest PGA value to each amplitude was scaled to that amplitude.
The resulting scaled HF motions are provided in Table A-2 of Appendix A, and scaled LF motions are provided in Table A-3 of Appendix A.Input response spectra were converted to Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) using inverse random vibration theory (IRVT; e.g., Rathje et al., 2005). IRVT requires an estimate of ground motion duration for each input control motion, which was calculated according to the method in Rathje et al. (2005). This duration calculation requires mean deaggregated magnitudes (M) and distances (R) for each HF and LF spectrum (from LCI, 2015a and provided in Table 8) as well as stress drop and crustal velocity values. Values for stress-drop (100 bars) and crustal velocity (3,500 m/s) for the PVNGS region were obtained from general western United States values provided in Al Atik et al. (Al Atik et al., 2014). The calculated durations are listed in Table 8.46 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Figure 40 shows the IRVT-derived FAS corresponding to the HF input response spectrum at a MAFE of 10-4 before and after the host kappa value was enforced.
Removal of the high frequency content from the FAS by enforcing kappa results in an IRVT-derived response spectrum slightly different from the input target spectrum, however this deviation is not expected to have a significant effect on site response calculations.
Kappa was enforced at about 10 Hz where the slope of the FAS obtained from the IRVT process is very close to the host kappa value. These results are representative of the other input control motions.Table 8. Deaggregated magnitudes and distances for reference rock and associated durations.
Source: LCI (LCI, 2015a).Motion Magnitude (Mw) Distance (km) Duration (sec)10-4 Low Freg. 7.5 210 26.3 104 High Freg. 6.1 18 4.06 10-5 Low Freg. 7.6 200 27.7 10-5 High Freq. 6.2 8.0 3.94 10-6 Low Freg. 6.8 8.0 7.46 10-6 High Freq. 6.4 6.0 4.76 47 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 10.1!0 I Z!k)&L 0 10 20 30 40 50 Frequency, [Hz]-Tare kI1MA speck-m W--rV -pch 10o 101 Frequency. (Hz]it 10V 1o~t (0'C IL .~10-T-rg01 ku peck-m---w spck 20 30 Frequency, [Hz]10? 10, Frequency.
1Hz]10 Figure 40. IRVT-derived FAS and its corresponding RVT-derived response spectrum for the 104 hazard level HF input control motion before (top figures) and after (bottom figures) host-kappa value of 0.041 sec is enforced.
Source: Figure 43 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).2.3.5 Methodology A random vibration theory (RVT) approach was employed to perform the site response analyses for the PVNGS site. This process utilizes a simple, efficient approach for computing site specific amplification functions and is consistent with SPID (EPRI, 2013) guidance.
For the BC, LR, and UR shallow site profiles, site amplification factors (SAF) are developed for seven spectral frequencies (0.5 Hz SA, 1.0 Hz SA, 2.5 Hz SA, 5.0 Hz SA, 10 Hz SA, 20 Hz SA, and 100 Hz SA or PGA) over the range of spectral amplitudes represented by the input control motions (refer to Section 2.3.4). Each set of SAF incorporates the various types of variability in profile and material properties described above, as well as uncertainty in kappa and deep shear wave velocities as represented by the nine sets of adjustment factors in Fourier 48 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 amplitude space. To include the deep site profile effect on SAF, the IRVT-derived input FAS was multiplied by the set of Vs-kappa adjustment factors from Section 2.3.2.2 prior to using that input spectrum to drive the shallow site profile.2.3.6 Amplification Functions The results of the site response analysis consist of SAF for 5% damped pseudo-absolute response spectra that describe the amplification (or de-amplification) of reference rock motion as a function of frequency and input reference rock amplitude.
The amplification factors are represented in terms of a median amplification value and an associated log standard deviation for each oscillator frequency and input rock amplitude.
A minimum median amplification value of 0.5 was employed in the present analysis, consistent with SPID guidance (EPRI, 2013). Figures 41a through 41f illustrate (using the BC velocity profile) the median and +/- 1 standard deviation in the predicted surface spectra and amplification factors developed for the HF and LF loading levels corresponding to MAFEs of 104, 105, and 10-6 parameterized by reference rock spectral amplitudes (0.01g to 1.50g) for the BC and EPRI soil G/Gmax and hysteretic damping curves. The variability in the amplification factors results from variability in shear wave velocity, depth to hard rock, modulus reduction curves, hysteretic damping curves, and application of the nine Fourier adjustment functions to account for uncertainty in kappa and the deep site Vs profile. To illustrate the effects of nonlinearity at PVNGS, Figures 42a through 42c show the final amplification factors developed with all combinations of the varied parameters for each of the three profiles (base-case, lower-range, and upper-range).
Note that all required weighted combinations of the resulting SAF were performed in linear (SAF) space as opposed to log (In[SAF])
space.Figures 42a through 42c show differences at all loading levels and frequencies.
Values of median SAF and their variability at spectral frequencies of 0.5 Hz SA, 1.0 Hz SA, 2.5 Hz SA, 5.0 Hz SA, 10 Hz SA, 20 Hz SA, and PGA over a range of amplitudes are provided in Appendix A Tables A-4, A-5, and A-6 for the BC, LR, and UR velocity profiles.49 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 10'*10 102 107-101 100 10* 101 102 10-1 10o 101 Frequency, [Hz] Frequency, [Hz]102 Figure 41a. PVNGS BC surface response spectra and SAF for 1 0 4 HF input motion using the EPRI soil material model and a single reference rock to local rock adjustment function.
Green lines are spectra for 60 individual randomized profiles.
Median (black solid line) and +/-Ial, (black dashed lines) are also shown. Source: Figure 46 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).101 101 10o 10,0 101 102 101 10 10 102 Frequency, [Hz] Frequency, [Hz]Figure 41b. PVNGS BC surface response spectra and SAF for 10-4 LF input motion using the EPRI soil material model, and a single reference rock to local rock adjustment function.
Green lines are spectra for 60 individual randomized profiles.
Median (black solid line) and +la 1 1 , (black dashed lines) are also shown. Source: Figure 47 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).50 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 101 101 107 I10-100 lo-t 106 10, 10, 10" 10" 10, Frequency, [Hz] Frequency, [Hz]102 Figure 41c. PVNGS BC surface response spectra and SAF for 10-5 HF input motion using the EPRI soil material model and a single reference rock to local rock adjustment function.
Green lines are spectra for 60 individual randomized profiles.
Median (black solid line) and +/-+lon, (black dashed lines) are also shown. Source: Figure 48 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).101 10'*1 CoI 100 v10 10o 101 10, Frequency, [Hz]100 101 Frequency.
[Hz]102 Figure 41d. PVNGS BC surface response spectra and SAF for 10-5 LF input motion using the EPRI soil material model, and a single reference rock to local rock adjustment function.
Green lines are spectra for 60 individual randomized profiles.
Median (black solid line) and +1an (black dashed lines) are also shown. Source: Figure 49 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).51 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 101 101 I 107'100 103 107, 106 10 10 10 10° 10, Frequency, [Hz] Frequency, [Hz]102 Figure 41e. PVNGS BC surface response spectra and SAF for 10-6 HF input motion using the EPRI soil material model and a single reference rock to local rock adjustment function.
Green lines are spectra for 60 individual randomized profiles.
Median (black solid line) and +/-+al, (black dashed lines) are also shown. Source: Figure 50 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).101 101 1070 , CO 110 .2 10- i0, 101 102 1071 100 101 102 Frequency, [Hz] Frequency, [Hz]Figure 41E. PVNGS BC surface response spectra and SAF for 10-6 LF input motion using the EPRI soil material model, and a single reference rock to local rock adjustment function.
Green lines are spectra for 60 individual randomized profiles.
Median (black solid line) and +/-101n (black dashed lines) are also shown. Source: Figure 51 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).52 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 3.5 3 2.5 L.% 2 C* 1.5 0.5-4-PGA-M-20 Hz' 10 Hz-M-5 Hz-,--2.5 Hz-4-1 Hz--0.5 Hz 0 4-0.001 0.01 0.1 1 Spectral acceleration, (g)10 0.6 0.5 0.4 O.4°U0.3 M 00.2 0 0.1--PGA-M-20 Hz-*-10 Hz-)4-5 Hz--- 2.5 Hz--@-1 Hz--0.5 Hz 0 4-0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 Spectral acceleration, (g)Figure 42a. PVNGS BC profile median amplification factors and log standard deviation as a function of spectral acceleration.
Source: Figure 55 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).53 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 3.5 3 2.5 U-S2 1.5 1 0.5-4--PGA-3-20 Hz-*10 Hz-(-X5 Hz-0-2.5 Hz-0-1 Hz-60.5 Hz 0 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 Spectral acceleration, (g)0.6 0.5 U.C 0.4".0 4-0.3 0-j 0.1----PGA-"-20 Hz-10 Hz-06-5 Hz----2.5 Hz--1 Hz-+0.5 Hz 0 -0.001 0.01 0.1 1 Spectral acceleration, (g)10 Figure 42b. PVNGS LR profile median amplification factors and log standard deviation as a function of spectral acceleration.
Source: Figure 56 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).54 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 3.5 3 2.5 U-2 1.5 0.5-4--PGA-3-20 Hz' 10 Hz-0-5 Hz-)--2.5 Hz-@-1 Hz--0.5 Hz 0 4-0.001 0.01 0.1 1 Spectral acceleration, (g)10 0.6 0.5 U-4.0.4.2+0" 0.3 111"o M'la 0 q 0.1-4,- PGA-3-20 Hz-h-10 Hz--X-5 Hz---2.5 Hz-40-1 Hz.0.5 Hz 0 4-0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 Spectral acceleration, (g)Figure 42c. PVNGS UR profile median amplification factors and log standard deviation as a function of spectral acceleration.
Source: Figure 57 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).55 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 2.4 Soil Hazard and Ground Motion Response Spectrum (GMRS) Calculations
2.4.1 Background
The subject analyses calculate the soil hazard at the PVNGS site using: (1) the 2015 PVNGS seismic sources (Section 2.1); (2) the 2015 SWUS GMPEs (Section 2.2); and (3) site specific amplification factors (Section 2.3). For the purposes of these analyses, the "PVNGS site" control point was chosen as Unit 2/free-field elevation (LCI, 2015d, S&A, 2015, and Section 3.2). The site specific amplification factors (Section 2.3) that convert ground motions from reference rock (shear wave velocity of 760 m/s) to PVNGS soil were applied in the these calculations.
The soil seismic hazard analysis conformed to the requirements of the SPID (EPRI, 2013) and the results can be used for the seismic evaluation and screening of nuclear plant structures, systems, and components.
2.4.2 Methodology
The methodology for seismic hazard calculations is well established in the technical literature (e.g., McGuire, 2004). The calculation of soil hazard was implemented with Approach 3 (REI, 2001).Ground motions were modeled for seven spectral frequencies (Section 2.2.4.1).
The spectral frequencies were PGA (equivalent to 100 Hz spectral acceleration), 20 Hz spectral acceleration (SA), 10 Hz SA, 5 Hz SA, 2.5 Hz SA, 1 Hz SA, and 0.5 Hz SA. Seismic hazard was calculated for 20 ground motion amplitudes, which were 0.000001g, 0.0005g, 0.001g, 0.005g, 0.01g, 0.015g, 0.03g, 0.05g, 0.075g, 0.1g, 0.15g, 0.3g, 0.5g, 0.75g, 1.0g, 1.5g, 3.0g, 5.0g, 7.5g and 10.0g. All ground motion equations represented spectral acceleration at 5% of critical damping, so results presented in this report represent spectral acceleration at 5% of critical damping.Steps used in calculating the mean soil horizontal GMRS were as follows.1. The seismic hazard (annual frequency of exceedance) representing ground motion at the top of the soil column was calculated using the inputs described in Sections 2.2 and 2.3, for the seven spectral frequencies indicated above.2. Spectral amplitudes corresponding to 104, 10-5, and 10-6 annual frequencies of exceedence were determined by log-log interpolation of the total mean hazard curves at the seven spectral frequencies indicated above.3. Uniform hazard response spectra (UHRS) for 1 0-4, 10-, and 10-6 annual frequencies of exceedence were calculated by anchoring mean spectral shapes determined from site amplification calculations (Section 2.3) to the spectral amplitudes calculated in step 2 above. These mean spectral shapes were calculated using site amplification calculations for amplitudes, magnitudes, and distances consistent with 10-4, 105', and 10-6 annual frequencies of exceedence.
For spectral frequencies below 0.5 Hz, l/T scaling was assumed (where T is spectral period). This is consistent with requirements for seismic building codes (e.g., Building Seismic Safety Council, 2009). This step gave smooth UHRS for spectral frequencies between 100 Hz and 0.1 Hz.4. The GMRS was calculated at each spectral frequency from the UHRS at that frequency derived in step 3 above. The following equations (U.S.NRC, 2007) were used to calculate the GMRS values: 10- UHRS Amplitude Ratio AR -4 UHRS Design Factor DF = max(], 0.6 x A 8)GMRS = max(10-4 UHRS x DF, 0.45 x 10-5 UHRS)56 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 These steps resulted in horizontal UHRS and GMRS applicable at the top of soil (free-field) for the PVNGS site.2.4.3 Results The 1 0 4, 10-', and 10-6 UHRS for the seven spectral frequencies for which hazards were calculated are shown in Table 9.Table 9. Mean 1 0 4, 10-', and 10-6 UHRS. Source: Table 1 from LCI (LCI, 2015e)UHRS acceleration, g Spectral frequency 104 10 5 10-6 0.5 Hz 0.0613 0.146 0.364 1.0 Hz 0.226 0.553 1.29 2.5 Hz 0.297 0.806 1.82 5.0 Hz 0.371 0.956 1.80 10 Hz 0.275 0.659 1.23 20 Hz 0.207 0.491 0.930 PGA 0.170 0.429 0.860 Figure 43 plots mean total soil hazard curves for the seven spectral frequencies (PGA, 20 Hz SA, 10 Hz SA, 5 Hz SA, 2.5 Hz SA, 1 Hz SA, and 0.5 Hz SA) at which hazard calculations were conducted.
The individual hazard curves are also documented in tabular form in Table 10. The relative relationship among soil hazard curves is typical for nuclear plant sites in the U.S.Figure 44 plots 104, 10-5, and 10-6 horizontal UHRS and GMRS. The individual 1 0 4, 10-5, and 10-6 horizontal UHRS and GMRS are also documented in tabular form in Table 11.Figures 45 and 46 show fractile soil hazard curves for 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA, respectively.
The fractile soil hazard curves indicate a range in hazard of a factor of about 4 between the 0.84 and 0.16 fractile for 10 Hz SA and a factor of about 7 for 1 Hz. The fractile range reflects the consistency in ground motion among GMPEs controlling the hazard at 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA.The sensitivity of soil hazard to the three velocity profiles (Base-Case, Lower-Range, and Upper-Range) used in the site response analysis (Section 2.3) are plotted in Figures 47 and 48 for 10 Hz SA and 1 Hz SA, respectively.
Figure 47 shows that the Upper-Range profile produces the highest hazard curve at 10 Hz SA, and the Lower-Range profile produces the lowest hazard curve. This is consistent with the Upper-Range profile being stiffer and shallower than either the Base-Case or the Lower-Range profiles.
A stiffer, shallower profile produces more high frequency response, and the stiff material remains almost linear at high amplitudes.
Figure 48 shows that for 1 Hz SA, the Lower-Range profile produces the highest hazard at low amplitudes (SA less than 0.2g) but produces the lowest hazard at high amplitudes (SA greater than 0.8g). This is consistent with the Lower-Range profile being softer and deeper than either the Base-Case and Upper-Range profiles.
A softer, deeper profile results in more low-frequency response at low amplitudes, but non-linear effects in soft materials reduce the response at high amplitudes.
57 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Soil Hazard by Spectral Frequency at Palo Verde C Cr CC 4'1E-3 1E-4 1E-5 1E-6 5 HZ 2.5 Hz-10 Hz-1 Hz-20 Hz--PGA-0.5 HZ 1E-7 +-0.01 0.1 1 Spectral acceleration Eel 10 Figure 43. Total mean soil hazard curves for seven spectral frequencies.
Source: Figure 1 from LCI (LCI, 2015e).Mean Horizontal Soil UHRS and GMRS 10.S1.2 -106 UHRS--10"6 UHRS-GMRS_____ ____ __ _ UHRS S0.1 --UHRS 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Spectral frequency, Hz Figure 44. 10", 10-5, and 10-6 mean horizontal soil UHRS and GMRS. Source: Figure 2 from LCI (LCI, 2015e).58 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table 10. Total mean soil hazard for seven spectral frequencies.
Source: Table 2 from LCI (LCI, 2015e).Spectral acceleration g 0.5 Hz 1 Hz 2.5 Hz 5 Hz 10 Hz 20 Hz PGA 0.000001 1.60E+00 1.60E+00 1.60E+00 1.60E+00 1.60E+00 1.60E+00 1.60E+00 0.0005 3.80E-01 1.05E+00 1.21E+00 1.05E+00 7.86E-01 7.33E-01 7.74E-01 0.001 2.25E-01 7.17E-01 8.90E-01 7.56E-01 5.16E-01 4.68E-01 4.81E-01 0.005 3.31E-02 1.99E-01 2.43E-01 2.02E-01 1.14E-01 1.OOE-01 9.18E-02 0.01 9.05E-03 8.83E-02 1.07E-01 8.77E-02 4.53E-02 3.98E-02 3.3 1E-02 0.015 3.71E-03 4.85E-02 5.95E-02 4.85E-02 2.42E-02 2.12E-02 1.63E-02 0.03 6.73E-04 1.37E-02 1.74E-02 1.48E-02 7.35E-03 6.23E-03 4.18E-03 0.05 1.73E-04 4.54E-03 6.OOE-03 5.63E-03 2.90E-03 2.29E-03 1.42E-03 0.075 5.79E-05 1.73E-03 2.40E-03 2.54E-03 1.36E-03 9.88E-04 5.94E-04 0.1 2.69E-05 8.39E-04 1.23E-03 1.43E-03 7.88E-04 5.32E-04 3.20E-04 0.15 9.34E-06 2.93E-04 4.77E-04 6.37E-04 3.58E-04 2.17E-04 1.33E-04 0.3 1.63E-06 4.78E-05 9.75E-05 1.57E-04 8.34E-05 4.1 OE-05 2.69E-05 0.5 4.48E-07 1.30E-05 3.08E-05 5.29E-05 2.32E-05 9.51E-06 6.53E-06 0.75 1.55E-07 4.58E-06 1.20E-05 1.98E-05 6.73E-06 2.34E-06 1.69E-06 I 7.07E-08 2.11 E-06 5.85E-06 8.81E-06 2.40E-06 7.48E-07 5.63E-07 1.5 2.22E-08 6.40E-07 1.90E-06 2.24E-06 4.46E-07 1.23E-07 1.OOE-07 3 2.60E-09 6.07E-08 1.88E-07 1.06E-07 1.47E-08 3.46E-09 3.38E-09 5 4.61E-10 8.43E-09 2.52E-08 6.52E-09 8.70E-10 1.71E-10 1.90E-10 7.5 1.05E-10 1.54E-09 4.36E-09 5.33E-10 8.23E-11 1.23E-11 1.49E-11 10 3.48E-11 4.28E-10 1.16E-09 7.70E-11 1.49E-11 1.67E-12 2.12E-12 59 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table 11. Mean Soil Horizontal UHRS and GMRS for Palo Verde. Source: Table 3 from LCI (LCI, 2015e)Freq, 10-4 UHRS (g) 10"5 UHRS (g) 10-6 UHRS (g) GMRS (g)Hz 100 1.70E-01 4.29E-0I 8.60E-01 2.14E-01 90 1.69E-01 4.30E-01 8.63E-01 2.14E-01 80 1.69E-01 4.30E-01 8.66E-01 2.14E-01 70 1.68E-01 4.31E-01 8.69E-01 2.14E-01 60 1.68E-01 4.33E-01 8.73E-01 2.15E-01 50 1.68E-01 4.35E-01 8.78E-01 2.16E-01 40 1.70E-01 4.39E-01 8.86E-01 2.18E-01 35 1.72E-01 4.43E-01 8.91E-01 2.20E-01 30 1.77E-01 4.50E-01 8.98E-01 2.24E-01 25 1.87E-01 4.64E-01 9.11 E-01 2.32E-01 20 2.07E-01 4.91E-01 9.30E-01 2.48E-01 15 2.27E-01 5.29E-01 1.01E+00 2.68E-01 12.5 2.49E-01 5.81E-01 1.09E+00 2.94E-01 10 2.75E-01 6.59E-01 1.23E+00 3.32E-01 9 2.86E-01 6.89E-01 1.28E+00 3.47E-01 8 3.02E-01 7.27E-01 1.34E+00 3.66E-01 7 3.22E-01 7.84E-01 1.43E+00 3.94E-01 6 3.48E-01 8.64E-01 1.59E+00 4.32E-01 5 3.71E-01 9.56E-01 1.80E+00 4.75E-01 4 3.75E-01 9.99E-01 1.96E+00 4.93E-01 3.5 3.63E-01 9.92E-01 2.02E+00 4.87E-01 3 3.37E-01 9.23E-01 1.98E+00 4.53E-01 2.5 2.97E-01 8.06E-01 1.82E+00 3.96E-01 2 2.65E-01 6.82E-01 1.72E+00 3.39E-01 1.5 2.80E-01 6.68E-01 1.48E+00 3.37E-01 1.25 2.91E-01 6.92E-01 1.40E+00 3.49E-01 1 2.26E-01 5.53E-01 1.29E+00 2.77E-01 0.9 1.91E-01 4.79E-01 1.17E+00 2.39E-01 0.8 1.54E-01 3.93E-01 9.97E-01 1.96E-01 0.7 1.18E-01 3.02E-01 7.82E-01 1.50E-01 0.6 8.61E-02 2.14E-01 5.58E-01 1.07E-01 0.5 6.13E-02 1.46E-01 3.64E-01 7.36E-02 0.4 4.90E-02 1.17E-01 2.91E-01 5.89E-02 0.35 4.29E-02 1.02E-01 2.55E-01 5.15E-02 0.3 3.68E-02 8.76E-02 2.18E-01 4.42E-02 0.25 3.07E-02 7.30E-02 1.82E-01 3.68E-02 0.2 2.45E-02 5.84E-02 1.46E-01 2.95E-02 0.15 1.84E-02 4.38E-02 1.09E-01 2.21E-02 0.125 1.53E-02 3.65E-02 9.1OE-02 1.84E-02 0.1 1.23E-02 2.92E-02 7.28E-02 1.47E-02 60 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 10 Hz Soil Hazard Fractiles at Palo Verde 1E-3 El w-05 rctl....E5 -0.16 ftactile E-6 1E-7 0.01 0.1 1. 10.10 Hz spectral acceleration, g Figure 45. Fractile soil hazard curves for 10 Hz SA. Source: Figure 5 from LCI (LCI, 2015e).1 Hz Soil Hazard Fractiles at Palo Verde 1E-3 C o1E-4 El-C IE-7 1~ 0.16 fractile-0.84 fractile-O.S fractile--0.16 fractile 0.01 0.1 1.1 Hz spectral acceleration, g 10.Figure 46. Fractile soil hazard curves for 1 Hz SA. Source: Figure 6 from LCI (LCI, 2015e).61 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 10 Hz Sensitivity to Soil Profile at Palo Verde 1E-3 Cr 0 C C 49 1E-4 1E-5 1E-6 U -Upper-Range I. -Profile-Upper-Range Profile-Base-Case Profile-Lower-Range Profile IC _7 0.01 0.1 1 10 10 Hz spectral acceleration (g)Figure 47. Sensitivity to the BC, UR, and LR velocity profiles described in Section 2.3 for 10 Hz SA (curves are not weighted by profile weights).
Source: Figure 7 from LCI (LCI, 2015e).1 Hz Sensitivity to Soil Profile at Palo Verde 1E-3 C 0 1E-4 1E-5 C W IC-I" 1E-6 1E-7 0.01 0.1 1 1 Hz spectral acceleration (g)10 Figure 48. Sensitivity to the BC, UR, and LR velocity profiles described in Section 2.3 for I Hz SA (curves are not weighted by profile weights).
Source: Figure 8 from LCI (LCI, 2015e).62 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 3 Plant Design Basis The PVNGS design basis is identified in the Updated Final Safety Analysis Report (UFSAR, Rev. 17, Sections 2.5 and 3.7).3.1 SSE Description of Spectral Shape The 10 CFR 100 Appendix A site characterization SSE was established in UFSAR Section 2.5 as peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 20% gravity (0.20g). The seismic analysis of all Seismic Category I structures was performed utilizing a Design Spectral Response Curve anchored at a PGA value of 0.25g.A PGA of 0.25g thus constitutes the design value for PVNGS, which bounds the 0.20g site characterization SSE (licensing basis).For PVNGS Unit 1, 2, and 3 the design earthquake is defined in terms of a PGA and a Regulatory Guide 1.60 design response spectral shape. Table 12 and Figure 49 shows the spectral acceleration values as a function of frequency for the 5% damped horizontal Design Specteral Response Curve.Table 12. PVNGS Unit 1, 2, and 3 0.25g PGA horizontal design spectral response curve, 5% damping.0.25 0.12 2.50 0.78 9.00 0.65 33.00 0.25 100.00 0.25 63 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 PVNGS 0.25g PGA Ilofzontal Desin SpechMI Response Curve, 5% Daaqp~g 1 0.1 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Frtqwwyc (Hz)Figure 49. PVNGS Unit 1, 2, and 3 0.25g PGA horizontal design spectral response curve, 5% damping.Source: (S&A, 2015a)3.2 Control Point Elevation UFSAR Section 2.5.2.6 defines the site characterization SSE vibratory ground motion, which is essentially based on free-field surface motions, as applicable to the grade level of the plant.The 0.25g design level of acceleration and the associated design spectral response curve are applied to both the plant grade and the foundation level for the purpose of structural design and soil-structure interaction analyses.
Additional discussion pertaining to the control point elevation can be found in S&A project report (S&A, 2015).The control point, which is representative of Unit 1, 2, and 3, is therefore defined as Unit 2/free-field (plant grade, foundation) level.64 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 4 Screening Evaluation Following completion of the seismic hazard reevaluation, as requested in the 10 CFR 50.54(f) letter, a screening process was performed to determine if a seismic risk evaluation was needed. The horizontal GMRS determined from the hazard reevaluation was used to characterize the amplitude of the new seismic hazard at PVNGS. The screening evaluation was based upon a comparison of the GMRS with the 5% damped horizontal Design Spectral Response Curve. Figure 50 shows a comparison between the plant design and the site GMRS that was calculated for Unit 2 as described in Section 2.4 above. In accordance with SPID Section 3, a screening evaluation was performed as described below.Horizontal GMRS to Design Spectral Response Curve Comparison I U.3 I 1 I 0.1 F-Hodzonti Deslg~m---Hodmtm Desin 0.25g 5% daping-SSHAC Level 3 Horizontal GMAS, S6 damping.j 0.01 .0.1 I to Fhequency JHz)100 Figure 50. PVNGS Unit 1, 2, and 3 horizontal GMRS to design spectral response curve comparison.
Source: ( S&A, 2015a).4.1 Risk Evaluation Screening (1 to 10 Hz)The Design Spectral Response Curve used for the design of Seismic Category 1 Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs) exceeds the GMRS response curve in the frequency range of I to 10 Hz.Consistent with the guidance provided in the 10 CFR 50.54(f) letter (U.S.NRC, 2012a), APS is therefore not required to perform a Seismic Risk Evaluation for the PVNGS site.65 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 4.2 High Frequency Screening
(>10 Hz)The Design Spectral Response Curve used for the design of Seismic Category I Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs) also exceeds the GMRS response curve in the frequency range above 10 Hz.Consistent with the guidance provided in the 10 CFR 50.54(f) letter (U.S.NRC, 2012a), APS is therefore not required to perform the High Frequency Confirmation for the PVNGS site.4.3 Spent Fuel Pool Evaluation Screening (1 to 10 Hz)The Design Spectral Response Curve used for the design of Seismic Category 1 Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs) exceeds the GMRS response curve in the frequency range of 1 to 10 Hz.Consistent with the guidance provided in the 10 CFR 50.54(f) letter (U.S.NRC, 2012a), APS is therefore not required to perform a spent fuel pool evaluation for the PVNGS site.5 Interim Actions PVNGS fully meets the criteria discussed in the SPID (EPRI, 2013) for screening out.Interim actions are not, therefore, needed or required for the PVNGS site.6 Conclusions In accordance with the 10 CFR 50.54(f) request for information, a seismic hazard and screening evaluation was performed for the PVNGS site. A GMRS was developed for purpose of screening for additional evaluations in accordance with the SPID. Based on the results of the PVNGS screening evaluation, no further action is required for the NTTF Recommendation
2.1 seismic
review.7 References 7.1 (Abrahamson et al., 2014) Abrahamson, N.A., Silva, W.J., and Kamai, R., Summary of the ASK14 ground motion relation for active crustal regions, Earthquake Spectra, v. 30, 1025-1055.
7.2 (Al Atik et al. 2014) Al Atik, L., Kottke, A., Abrahamson, N., and Hollenback, J., Kappa (K)Scaling of ground-motion prediction equations using an inverse random vibration theory approach, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 104, no. 1, 336-346.7.3 (Anderson and Hough, 1984) Anderson, J. G., and Hough, S. E., A model for the shape of the Fourier amplitude spectrum of acceleration at high frequencies, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 74, no. 5, 1969-1993.
7.4 (APS, 2015) Arizona Public Service, Seismic Source Characterization for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, SSHAC Level 3.7.5 (Boore, 2003) Boore, D. M., Prediction of ground motion using the stochastic method, Pure and Applied Geophysics, v.,160, 635-675.7.6 (Boore, 2013) Boore, D. M., The uses and limitations of the square -root -bnpedance method for computing site amplification., Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 103, no. 4, 2356-2368.7.7 (Boore and Joyner, 1997) Boore, D.M., and Joyner, W.B., Site amplifications for generic rock sites, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 87, no. 2, 327-341.66 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 7.8 (Boore et at., 2014) Boore, D. M., Stewart, J. P., Seyhan, E., and Atkinson, G. M., NGA-West2 equations for predicting PGA, PGV, and 5% damped PSA for shallow crustal earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra, v. 30, 1057-1085.
7.9 (Building Seismic Safety Council, 2009) Building Seismic Safety Council, NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, FEMA Report P-750, 2009 edition, Washington, D.C.7.10 (Budnitz et al., 1997) Budnitz, R.J., Apostolakis, G., Boore, D.M., Cluff, L.S., Coppersmith, K.J., Cornell, C.A., and Morris, P.A., Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and the use of experts, prepared by Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC), NUREG/CR-6372, two volumes, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C.7.11 (Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2014) Campbell, K, W. and Bozorgnia, Y., NGA-West2 ground motion model for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped linear acceleration response spectra, Earthquake Spectra, v. 30, 1087-1115.
7.12 (Chiou and Youngs, 2014) Chiou, B. S. J, and Youngs R. R., Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground and response spectra, Earthquake Spectra, v. 30, 1117-1153.
7.13 (Demsey and Pearthree 1990) Demsey, K.A., and Pearthree, P.A., Late Quaternary surface-rupture history of the Sand Tank fault, and associated seismic hazard for the proposed superconducting super collider site, Maricopa County, Arizona, Arizona Geological Survey, Open-File Report 90-01, 46p.7.14 (EPRI, 1993) Electric Power Research Institute, Methods and guidelines for estimating earthquake ground motion in eastern North America, in Guidelines for Determining Design Basis Ground Motions, Vol. 1, EPRI TR-102293, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California.
7.15 (EPRI et al., 2012) Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Technical Report: Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA.7.16 (EPRI, 2013) Electric Power Research Institute, Seismic Evaluation Guidance:
Screening, Prioritization and Implementation Details (SPID) for the Resolution of Fukushima Near-Term Task Force Recommendation 2.1: Seismic, EPRI Report 1025287, February.7.17 (EPRI) (2013a) Electric Power Research Institute, Augmented Approach for the Resolution of Fukushima Near-Term Task Force Recommendation 2.1, EPRI 3002000704, March.7.18 (GeoPentech, 2015) GeoPentech, Southwestern United States Ground Motion Characterization SSHAC Level 3 Technical Report, Revision 1.7.19 (Idriss, 2014) ldriss, I. M., An NGA-West2 empirical model for estimating the horizontal spectral values generated by shallow crustal earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra, v. 30, 1155-1177.
7.20 (LCI, 2015a) Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Reference Rock Seismic Hazard Calculations for Palo Verde, LCI project calculation PVOOI-PC-01.
7.21 (LCI, 2015b) Lettis Consultants International., Inc., Adjustment Factors from Reference Rock to Palo Verde Rock, LCI project calculation PVOO1-PC-02.
7.22 (LCI, 2015c) Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Site Specific Rock Seismic Hazard Calculations for Palo Verde, LCI project calculation PVOOI-PC-03.
7.23 (LCI, 2015d) Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Development of Site Profile and Amplifications for Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, LCI project calculation PVOO I -PC-04.7.24 (LCI, 2015e) Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Soil Hazard and GMRS/FIRS Calculations for Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, LCI project calculation PVOO 1-PC-05.7.25 (LCI, 2015f) Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Geologic and Geophysical Logging of Boreholes at the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS), LCI Project Report APS-00 I -PR-0 1.67 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 7.26 (LCI, 2015g) Lettis Consultants International, Inc., Collection of Spectral Analysis of Surface Waves (SASW) Data at the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS), LCI Project Report APS-002-PR-01.
7.27 McGuire, 2004) McGuire, R.K., Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Monograph MNO-10.7.28 (Menges and Pearthree, 1989) Menges, C.M., and Pearthree, P.A., Late Cenozoic tectonism in Arizona and its impact on regional landscape evolution, in Jenney, J.P. and Reynolds, S.J.(Editors), Geologic Evolution of Arizona, Digest No. 17. Tucson, Arizona, Arizona Geological Society, 649-680.7.29 (Pearthree et al.,1983)
Pearthree, P.A.., Menges, C.M., and Mayer, L., Distribution, recurrence, and possible tectonic implications of late Quaternary faulting in Arizona, Arizona Geological Survey Open-File Report 83-20, 53p.7.30 Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR), Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS)Units 1, 2, and 3, Amendment 20.7.31 (Rathje et al., 2005) Rathje, E. M., Kottke, A. R., Ozbey, M.C., Using Inverse Random Vibration Theory to Develop Input Fourier Amplitude Spectra for Use in Site Response, 16th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering:
TC4 Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering Satellite Conference, Osaka, Japan, September 2005, 160-166.7.32 (REI, 2001) Risk Engineering, Inc., Technical Basis for Revision of Regulatory Guidance on Design Ground Motions. Hazard- and Risk-consistent Ground Motion Spectra Guidelines, U.S.Nuclear Regulatory Commission Report NUREG/CR-6728.
7.33 (Silva et al., 1996) Silva, W. J., Abrahamson, N., Toro, G., and Costantino, C., Description and Validation of the Stochastic Ground Motion Model, Upton, New York: Brookhaven National Laboratory.
7.34 (S&A, 2015) Stevenson
& Associates, Identification of SSE Control Points at PVNGS, Project Report 13Q4160-RPT-001, Revision 1, February 4, 2015.7.35 (S&A, 2015a) Stevenson
& Associates., SSHAC Level 3 GMRS to SSE Comparison at PVNGS, Project Report 13Q4160-RPT-003, Revision 0.7.36 (Stover and Coffman, 1993) Stover, C.W., and Coffman, J.L., Seismicitv of the United States, 1568-1989 (Revised), U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1527, 418p.7.37 (Suter and Contreras, 2002) Suter, M., and Contreras J., Active tectonics of northeastern Sonora, Mexico (Southern Basin and Range Province) and the 3 May 1887 Mw 7.4 Earthquake, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 92, no. 2, 581-589.7.38 (Suter, 2006) Suter, M., Contemporary studies of the 3 May 1887 Mw 7.5 Sonora, Mexico (Basin and Range Province) earthquake, Seismological Research Letters, v. 77, 134-147.7.39 (Toro, 1995) Toro, G. R.., Probabilistic models of site velocity profiles for generic and site-specific ground-motion amplification studies, Technical Report 779574, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York.7.40 (UFSAR, Rev. 17) Updated Final Safety Analysis Report, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS) Units 1, 2, and 3, Revision 17.7.41 (U.S.NRC, 1973) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Regulatory Guide 1.60 Design Response Spectra for Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants (Revision 1, December 1973).7.42 (U.S.NRC, 2007) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, A Performance-Based Approach to Define the Site-Specific Earthquake Ground Motion, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 1.208.7.43 (U.S.NRC, 2012a) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Request .for Information Pursuant to Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations 50.54(6 Regarding Recommendations 2.1, 2.3. and 9.3, of the Near-Term Task Force Review of Insights from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident, March 12, 2012, 81p.68 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 7.44 (U.S.NRC, 2012b) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Practical Implementation Guidelines for SSHAC Level 3 and 4 Hazard Studies, prepared by A.M. Kammerer and J.P Ake, NUREG-2117, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission., 235p.7.45 (Vucetic and Dobry, 1991) Vucetic, M., and Dobry, R., Effects of Soil Plasticity on Cyclic Response, Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, ASCE, v. 117, no. 1,89-107.7.46 (Warren 1969) Warren, D. H., A seismic-refraction survey of crustal structure in central Arizona, Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 80, no. 2, 257-282.69 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Appendix A. Tabulated Data Table A-1. Fourier adjustment factors from reference rock conditions to local rock conditions and their weights. Source: Table I from LCI (LCI, 2015b).SWUS to PVNGS Adjustment Factor (Fourier-amplitude Space)Abbrev: TF1 TF2 TF3 TF4 TF5 TF6 TF7 TF8 TF9 LB LB LB Median Median Median UB UB UB Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Freq. LB Median UB LB Median UB LB Median UB (Hz) kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa (0.09) (0.12) (0.09) (0.12) (0.16) (0.12) (0.09) (0.12) (0.09)0.1000 1.0136 1.0086 0.9993 0.8916 0.8873 0.8790 0.8598 0.8556 0.8477 0.1080 1.0218 1.0165 1.0063 0.8871 0.8824 0.8736 0.8528 0.8483 0.8398 0.1166 1.0313 1.0255 1.0144 0.8821 0.8771 0.8676 0.8451 0.8403 0.8312 0.1259 1.0424 1.0360 1.0240 0.8766 0.8712 0.8611 0.8367 0.8316 0.8219 0.1359 1.0574 1.0504 1.0372 0.8721 0.8663 0.8554 0.8291 0.8236 0.8132 0.1468 1.0768 1.0691 1.0546 0.8684 0.8622 0.8505 0.8219 0.8160 0.8050 0.1585 1.0999 1.0914 1.0754 0.8643 0.8576 0.8451 0.8140 0.8077 0.7959 0.1711 1.1279 1.1185 1.1009 0.8597 0.8526 0.8391 0.8054 0.7987 0.7861 0.1848 1.1660 1.1555 1.1358 0.8571 0.8493 0.8349 0.7981 0.7910 0.7775 0.1995 1.1927 1.1811 1.1594 0.8549 0.8466 0.8310 0.7910 0.7833 0.7689 0.2154 1.1895 1.1770 1.1536 0.8524 0.8435 0.8268 0.7830 0.7748 0.7594 0.2326 1.1852 1.1718 1.1467 0.8496 0.8400 0.8220 0.7742 0.7654 0.7491 0.2512 1.1856 1.1711 1.1441 0.8501 0.8397 0.8203 0.7678 0.7584 0.7409 0.2712 1.1867 1.1710 1.1419 0.8511 0.8398 0.8189 0.7612 0.7511 0.7324 0.2929 1.1878 1.1709 1.1395 0.8522 0.8400 0.8175 0.7538 0.7431 0.7231 0.3162 1.1890 1.1707 1.1368 0.8533 0.8402 0.8159 0.7456 0.7341 0.7128 0.3415 1.1950 1.1752 1.1385 0.8580 0.8438 0.8174 0.7393 0.7271 0.7043 0.3687 1.2037 1.1821 1.1423 0.8578 0.8425 0.8141 0.7334 0.7203 0.6960 0.3981 1.2136 1.1902 1.1469 0.8537 0.8372 0.8068 0.7268 0.7128 0.6869 0.4299 1.2251 1.1996 1.1526 0.8490 0.8313 0.7987 0.7193 0.7043 0.6768 0.4642 1.2429 1.2149 1.1636 0.8464 0.8274 0.7924 0.7133 0.6973 0.6678 0.5012 1.2688 1.2380 1.1817 0.8466 0.8260 0.7884 0.7092 0.6920 0.6605 0.5412 1.3013 1.2673 1.2051 0.8474 0.8252 0.7847 0.7046 0.6861 0.6525 0.5843 1.3476 1.3096 1.2403 0.8521 0.8281 0.7843 0.7014 0.6816 0.6455 0.6310 1.4077 1.3648 1.2871 0.8586 0.8325 0.7851 0.6987 0.6774 0.6388 0.6813 1.4269 1.3801 1.2954 0.8659 0.8375 0.7861 0.6956 0.6728 0.6315 0.7356 1.4146 1.3645 1.2744 0.8755 0.8445 0.7887 0.6931 0.6686 0.6244 0.7943 1.4047 1.3511 1.2549 0.8901 0.8561 0.7952 0.6929 0.6665 0.6191 0.8577 1.3940 1.3366 1.2342 0.9073 0.8699 0.8033 0.6928 0.6643 0.6134 0.9261 1.3821 1.3207 1.2118 0.9275 0.8863 0.8132 0.6926 0.6619 0.6073 1.0000 1.3731 1.3074 1.1914 0.9546 0.9089 0.8283 0.6943 0.6611 0.6024 1.0798 1.3666 1.2962 1.1724 0.9900 0.9390 0.8494 0.6980 0.6620 0.5988 1.1659 1.3594 1.2839 1.1520 1.0338 0.9764 0.8762 0.7019 0.6629 0.5948 70 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table A-1. Fourier adjustment factors from reference rock conditions to local rock conditions and their weights. Source: Table I from LCI (LCI, 2015b).SWUS to PVNGS Adjustment Factor (Fourier-amplitude Space)Abbrev: TF1 TF2 TF3 TF4 TF5 TF6 TF7 TF8 TF9 LB LB LB Median Median Median UB UB UB Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Freq. LB Median UB LB Median UB LB Median UB (Hz) kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa (0.09) (0.12) (0.09) (0.12) (0.16) (0.12) (0.09) (0.12) (0.09)1.2589 1.3512 1.2703 1.1300 1.0758 1.0114 0.8998 0.7062 0.6639 0.5906 1.3594 1.3483 1.2614 1.1117 1.0777 1.0082 0.8886 0.7142 0.6681 0.5888 1.4678 1.3478 1.2543 1.0943 1.0773 1.0026 0.8747 0.7246 0.6743 0.5883 1.5849 1.3471 1.2464 1.0757 1.0767 0.9963 0.8598 0.7364 0.6813 0.5880 1.7113 1.3460 1.2378 1.0557 1.0759 0.9894 0.8439 0.7496 0.6893 0.5879 1.8478 1.3446 1.2282 1.0344 1.0748 0.9817 0.8268 0.7645 0.6984 0.5882 1.9953 1.3435 1.2184 1.0121 1.0739 0.9739 0.8090 0.7821 0.7093 0.5892 2.1544 1.3435 1.2089 0.9895 1.0739 0.9663 0.7909 0.8033 0.7228 0.5916 2.3263 1.3431 1.1984 0.9654 1.0735 0.9579 0.7716 0.8280 0.7387 0.5951 2.5119 1.3424 1.1869 0.9398 1.0730 0.9487 0.7512 0.8522 0.7535 0.5966 2.7123 1.3421 1.1751 0.9132 1.0728 0.9392 0.7300 0.8575 0.7508 0.5835 2.9286 1.3413 1.1620 0.8851 1.0721 0.9288 0.7075 0.8570 0.7424 0.5655 3.1623 1.3399 1.1476 0.8553 1.0710 0.9173 0.6837 0.8561 0.7332 0.5465 3.4145 1.3419 1.1351 0.8264 1.0726 0.9073 0.6606 0.8573 0.7252 0.5280 3.6869 1.3434 1.1213 0.7960 1.0738 0.8963 0.6362 0.8583 0.7164 0.5086 3.9811 1.3451 1.1067 0.7644 1.0751 0.8846 0.6110 0.8594 0.7070 0.4884 4.2987 1.3525 1.0956 0.7347 1.0811 0.8757 0.5873 0.8641 0.7000 0.4694 4.6416 1.3605 1.0837 0.7040 1.0874 0.8662 0.5627 0.8692 0.6924 0.4498 5.0119 1.3751 1.0756 0.6751 1.0991 0.8598 0.5396 0.8785 0.6872 0.4313 5.4117 1.3923 1.0680 0.6458 1.1129 0.8536 0.5162 0.8895 0.6823 0.4126 5.8434 1.4148 1.0625 0.6173 1.1309 0.8493 0.4934 0.9039 0.6788 0.3944 6.3096 1.4430 1.0592 0.5892 1.1534 0.8466 0.4710 0.9219 0.6767 0.3765 6.8129 1.4746 1.0560 0.5606 1.1787 0.8441 0.4481 0.9421 0.6747 0.3582 7.3564 1.5156 1.0569 0.5334 1.2114 0.8448 0.4264 0.9683 0.6752 0.3408 7.9433 1.5606 1.0574 0.5054 1.2474 0.8452 0.4039 0.9971 0.6756 0.3229 8.5770 1.6136 1.0599 0.4776 1.2898 0.8472 0.3817 1.0310 0.6772 0.3051 9.2612 1.6782 1.0659 0.4507 1.3414 0.8520 0.3603 1.0722 0.6810 0.2880 10.0000 1.7503 1.0722 0.4233 1.3990 0.8570 0.3383 1.1183 0.6850 0.2704 10.7978 1.8346 1.0808 0.3962 1.4664 0.8639 0.3167 1.1721 0.6905 0.2531 11.6591 1.9374 1.0941 0.3702 1.5486 0.8746 0.2959 1.2378 0.6990 0.2365 12.5893 2.0549 1.1088 0.3441 1.6425 0.8863 0.2750 1.3129 0.7084 0.2199 13.5936 2.1894 1.1246 0.3179 1.7500 0.8989 0.2541 1.3988 0.7185 0.2031 14.6780 2.3499 1.1446 0.2926 1.8783 0.9149 0.2338 1.5014 0.7313 0.1869 15.8489 2.5422 1.1692 0.2680 2.0321 0.9346 0.2142 1.6243 0.7470 0.1712 71 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table A-i. Fourier adjustment factors from reference rock conditions to local rock conditions and their weights. Source: Table I from LCI (LCI, 2015b).SWUS to PVNGS Adjustment Factor (Fourier-amplitude Space)Abbrev: TF1 TF2 TF3 TF4 TF5 TF6 TF7 TF8 TF9 LB LB LB Median Median Median UB UB UB Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Profile, Freq. LB Median UB LB Median UB LB Median UB (Hz) kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa kappa (0.09) (0.12) (0.09) (0.12) (0.16) (0.12) (0.09) (0.12) (0.09)17.1133 2.7672 1.1962 0.2438 2.2119 0.9562 0.1949 1.7680 0.7643 0.1558 18.4785 3.0319 1.2258 0.2201 2.4235 0.9798 0.1759 1.9371 0.7832 0.1406 19.9526 3.3536 1.2614 0.1975 2.6806 1.0083 0.1578 2.1427 0.8059 0.1262 21.5443 3.7485 1.3041 0.1761 2.9963 1.0424 0.1407 2.3950 0.8332 0.1125 23.2631 4.2270 1.3518 0.1556 3.3787 1.0805 0.1244 2.7006 0.8637 0.0994 25.1189 4.8118 1.4050 0.1361 3.8461 1.1231 0.1088 3.0743 0.8977 0.0869 27.1227 5.5426 1.4671 0.1179 4.4303 1.1727 0.0943 3.5412 0.9373 0.0754 29.2864 6.4784 1.5422 0.1014 5.1783 1.2327 0.0811 4.1391 0.9853 0.0648 31.6228 7.6667 1.6277 0.0861 6.1281 1.3010 0.0688 4.8983 1.0399 0.0550 34.1455 9.1952 1.7252 0.0722 7.3499 1.3789 0.0577 5.8748 1.1022 0.0461 36.8695 11.1888 1.8369 0.0597 8.9434 1.4682 0.0477 7.1486 1.1736 0.0381 39.8107 13.8284 1.9655 0.0486 11.0533 1.5710 0.0388 8.8350 1.2557 0.0310 42.9866 17.3805 2.1143 0.0389 13.8925 1.6900 0.0311 11.1045 1.3508 0.0249 46.4159 22.2896 2.2920 0.0307 17.8164 1.8320 0.0245 14.2409 1.4644 0.0196 50.1187 29.2648 2.5099 0.0238 23.3918 2.0062 0.0190 18.6974 1.6036 0.0152 54.1170 39.2659 2.7684 0.0181 31.3858 2.2128 0.0145 25.0872 1.7687 0.0116 58.4341 53.9344 3.0774 0.0135 43.1106 2.4598 0.0108 34.4589 1.9662 0.0086 63.0957 75.9811 3.4500 0.0098 60.7328 2.7576 0.0078 48.5447 2.2042 0.0063 68.1292 110.005 3.9029 0.0069 87.9283 3.1197 0.0055 70.2824 2.4936 0.0044 73.5642 164.031 4.4589 0.0048 131.113 3.5641 0.0038 104.800 2.8488 0.0031 79.4328 252.802 5.1544 0.0032 202.069 4.1200 0.0026 161.517 3.2932 0.0020 85.7696 404.226 6.0417 0.0021 323.104 4.8292 0.0017 258.262 3.8601 0.0013 92.6119 671.328 7.1753 0.0013 536.603 5.7353 0.0010 428.915 4.5843 0.0008 100.O0000 1160.96 8.6394 0.0008 927.980 6.9056 0.0006 741.749 5.5197 0.0005 72 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table A-2. Scaled HF input control motions. Source: LCI (LCI, 2015a).Freq.(Hz)
HFI1(g) HF2(g) HF3(g) HF4(g) HF5(g) HF6(g) HF7(g) HF8(g) HF9(g) HF10(g) HF11(g)100 1.00E-02 1.80E-02 3.24E-02 5.83E-02 1.05E-01 1.56E-01 2.31E-01 3.44E-01 5.33E-01 8.27E-01 1.50E+00 90 1.00E-02 1.81E-02 3.25E-02 5.85E-02 1.05E-01 1.56E-01 2.33E-01 3.46E-01 5.37E-01 8.33E-01 1.51E+00 80 1.01E-02 1.81E-02 3.27E-02 5.88E-02 1.06E-01 I1.57E-01 2.35E-01 3.48E-01 5.40E-01 8.40E-01 I1.52E+00 70 1.01E-02 1.82E-02 3.28E-02 5.91E-02 1.06E-01 I1.58E-01 2.36E-01 3.51E-01 5.45E-01 8.48E-01 1.54E+00 60 1.02E-02 1.83E-02 3.30E-02 5.94E-02 1.07E-01 I1.59E-01 2.39E-01 3.54E-01 5.50E-01 8.57E-01 1.55E+00 50 1.03E-02 1.85E-02 3.32E-02 5.98E-02 1.08E-01 1.60E-01 2.41E-0I 3.58E-01 5.56E-01 8.68E-01 1.57E+00 40 1.08E-02 1.94E-02 3.50E-02 6.30E-02 1.13E-01 1.68E-0I 2.57E-01 3.82E-01 5.92E-01 9.22E-01 1.67E+00 33 1.13E-02 2.03E-02 3.66E-02 6.58E-02 1.18E-01 1.76E-01 2.72E-01 4.04E-01 6.26E-01 9.71E-01 1.76E+00 30 1.17E-02 2.11E-02 3.79E-02 6.82E-02 1.23E-01 1.82E-01 2.83E-01 4.21E-01 6.53E-01 1.01E+00 1.84E+00 25 1.25E-02 2.26E-02 4.06E-02 7.31E-02 1.31E-01 1.95E-01 3.07E-01 4.55E-01 7.06E-01 1.1OE+00 1.99E+00 20 1.36E-02 2.45E-02 4.41E-02 7.94E-02 1.43E-01 2.12E-01 3.38E-01 5.02E-01 7.78E-01 1.21E+00 2.20E+00 15 1.61E-02 2.90E-02 5.22E-02 9.40E-02 1.69E-01 2.51E-01 4.OOE-01 5.95E-01 9.22E-01 1.43E+00 2.59E+00 13 1.75E-02 3.16E-02 5.68E-02 1.02E-0I 1.84E-01 2.73E-01 4.36E-01 6.47E-01 L.OOE+00 1.55E+00 2.81E+00 10 2.05E-02 3.70E-02 6.66E-02 1.20E-0I 2.16E-01 3.20E-01 5.04E-01 7.49E-01 1.16E+00 1.78E+00 3.22E+00 9 2.08E-02 3.74E-02 6.73E-02 1.21E-01 2.18E-01 3.24E-01 5.1OE-0I 7.57E-01 1.17E+00 1.80E+00 3.27E+00 8 2.1OE-02 3.78E-02 6.81E-02 1.23E-01 2.21E-01 3.27E-01 5.16E-0I 7.67E-01 1.19E+00 1.83E+00 3.33E+00 7 2.13E-02 3.83E-02 6.90E-02 1.24E-0I 2.23E-01 3.32E-01 5.24E-01 7.78E-01 1.21E+00 1.87E+00 3.39E+00 6 2.15E-02 3.88E-02 6.98E-02 1.26E-01 2.26E-01 3.36E-01 5.28E-01 7.84E-01 1.22E+00 1.90E+00 3.44E+00 5 2.18E-02 3.92E-02 7.06E-02 1.27E-0I 2.29E-01 3.40E-01 5.31E-01 7.89E-01 1.22E+00 1.93E+00 3.50E+00 4 1.91E-02 3.44E-02 6.19E-02 1.1 IE-01 2.01E-01 2.98E-01 4.67E-01 6.94E-01 1.08E+00 1.71E+00 3.1OE+00 3.3 1.71E-02 3.07E-02 5.53E-02 9.96E-02 1.79E-01 2.66E-01 4.18E-01 6.21E-01 9.64E-01 1.54E+00 2.80E+00 3 1.55E-02 2.78E-02 5.01E-02 9.02E-02 1.62E-01 2.41E-01 3.79E-01 5.63E-01 8.73E-01 1.40E+00 2.55E+00 2.5 1.28E-02 2.31E-02 4.15E-02 7.47E-02 1.34E-01 2.OOE-01 3.14E-01 4.66E-01 7.22E-01 1.17E+00 2.13E+00 2 1.09E-02 1.96E-02 3.54E-02 6.36E-02 1.15E-01 1.70E-01 2.64E-01 3.93E-01 6.09E-0I 1.02E+00 1.84E+00 1.5 7.78E-03 1.40E-02 2.52E-02 4.53E-02 8.16E-02 1.21E-01 1.90E-01 2.82E-01 4.38E-01 7.41E-01 1.34E+00 1.3 6.57E-03 1.18E-02 2.13E-02 3.83E-02 6.90E-02 1.02E-01 1.61E-01 2.40E-01 3.72E-01 6.34E-01 1.15E+00 I 4.45E-03 8.01E-03 1.44E-02 2.59E-02 4.67E-02 6.93E-02 1.1OE-01 1.64E-01 2.54E-01 4.57E-01 8.28E-01 0.9 3.85E-03 6.94E-03 1.25E-02 2.25E-02 4.04E-02 6.01E-02 9.51E-02 1.41E-01 2.19E-01 3.94E-01 7.15E-01 0.8 3.28E-03 5.91E-03 1.06E-02 1.91E-02 3.44E-02 5.11 E-02 8.05E-02 1.20E-01 1.85E-01 3.34E-01 6.07E-01 73 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table A-2. Scaled HF input control motions. Source: LCI (LCI, 2015a).Freq.(Hz)
HF1(g) HF2(g) HF3(g) HF4(g) HF5(g) HF6(g) HF7(g) HF8(g) HF9(g) HF10(g) HF11(g)0.7 2.74E-03 4.92E-03 8.86E-03 1.60E-02 2.87E-02 4.26E-02 6.67E-02 9.90E-02 1.54E-01 2.78E-01 5.04E-01 0.6 2.19E-03 3.93E-03 7.08E-03 1.27E-02 2.29E-02 3.41E-02 5.28E-02 7.84E-02 1.22E-01 2.20E-01 4.00E-01 0.5 1.66E-03 3.00E-03 5.39E-03 9.71E-03 1.75E-02 2.59E-02 3.97E-02 5.90E-02 9.15E-02 1.67E-01 3.02E-01 0.4 1.18E-03 2.12E-03 3.81E-03 6.86E-03 1.23E-02 1.83E-02 2.80E-02 4.16E-02 6.46E-02 1.20E-01 2.18E-01 0.33 8.71E-04 1.57E-03 2.82E-03 5.08E-03 9.14E-03 1.36E-02 2.08E-02 3.08E-02 4.78E-02 9.05E-02 1.64E-01 0.3 7.38E-04 1.33E-03 2.39E-03 4.30E-03 7.75E-03 1.15E-02 1.77E-02 2.62E-02 4.07E-02 7.78E-02 1.41E-01 0.25 5.37E-04 9.67E-04 1.74E-03 3.13E-03 5.64E-03 8.38E-03 1.30E-02 1.93E-02 2.99E-02 5.82E-02 1.06E-01 0.2 3.73E-04 6.71E-04 1.21E-03 2.17E-03 3.91E-03 5.81E-03 9.1OE-03 1.35E-02 2.1OE-02 4.17E-02 7.56E-02 0.15 2.25E-04 4.06E-04 7.30E-04 1.31E-03 2.36E-03 3.51E-03 5.58E-03 8.29E-03 1.29E-02 2.63E-02 4.78E-02 0.13 1.75E-04 3.16E-04 5.68E-04 1.02E-03 1.84E-03 2.73E-03 4.38E-03 6.50E-03 1.01E-02 2.1OE-02 3.80E-02 0.1 1.02E-04 1.84E-04 3.32E-04 5.97E-04 1.07E-03 1.60E-03 2.44E-03 3.62E-03 5.61E-03 1.19E-02 2.15E-02 74 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table A-3. Scaled LF input control motions. Source: LCI (LCI, 2015a).Freq.(Hz)
LF1(g) LF2(g) LF3(g) LF4(g) LF5(g) LF6(g) LF7(g) LF8(g) LF9((g) LF10(g) LF11(g)100 L.OOE-02 1.71E-02 2.94E-02 5.03E-02 8.63E-02 1.27E-01 1.86E-01 2.73E-01 4.51E-01 7.44E-01 1.50E+00 90 L.OOE-02 1.72E-02 2.94E-02 5.04E-02 8.63E-02 1.27E-01 1.86E-01 2.73E-01 4.51E-01 7.52E-01 1.52E+00 80 L.00E-02 1.72E-02 2.94E-02 5.04E-02 8.64E-02 1.27E-01 1.86E-01 2.74E-01 4.52E-01 7.61E-01 1.53E+00 70 1.OOE-02 1.72E-02 2.94E-02 5.05E-02 8.65E-02 1.27E-01 1.87E-01 2.74E-0I 4.52E-01 7.71E-0I 1.55E+00 60 1.OOE-02 1.72E-02 2.95E-02 5.05E-02 8.66E-02 1.27E-01 1.87E-01 2.74E-01 4.53E-01 7.83E-01 1.58E+00 50 1.01E-02 1.72E-02 2.95E-02 5.06E-02 8.67E-02 1.27E-01 1.87E-01 2.75E-01 4.53E-01 7.97E-01 1.61E+00 40 1.03E-02 1.76E-02 3.02E-02 5.18E-02 8.89E-02 1.30E-01 1.92E-01 2.82E-01 4.65E-0I 8.30E-01 1.67E+00 33 1.05E-02 1.80E-02 3.09E-02 5.29E-02 9.07E-02 1.33E-01 1.96E-01 2.88E-01 4.76E-0I 8.60E-01 1.73E+00 30 1.06E-02 1.82E-02 3.12E-02 5.35E-02 9.17E-02 1.35E-01 1.99E-01 2.92E-01 4.82E-01 8.98E-0I 1.81E+00 25 1.09E-02 1.86E-02 3.19E-02 5.47E-02 9.37E-02 1.38E-01 2.04E-01 2.99E-01 4.94E-0I 9.73E-01 1.96E+00 20 1.11E-02 1.91E-02 3.27E-02 5.61E-02 9.61E-02 1.41E-01 2.1OE-01 3.08E-01 5.08E-01 1.07E+00 2.17E+00 15 1.20E-02 2.06E-02 3.54E-02 6.06E-02 1.04E-01 1.53E-01 2.28E-01 3.34E-01 5.52E-0I 1.28E+00 2.58E+00 13 1.25E-02 2.15E-02 3.68E-02 6.30E-02 1.08E-01 1.59E-01 2.37E-01 3.48E-01 5.74E-01 1.39E+00 2.81E+00 10 1.35E-02 2.32E-02 3.98E-02 6.82E-02 1.17E-01 1.72E-01 2.56E-01 3.75E-0l 6.19E-01 1.63E+00 3.29E+00 9 1.39E-02 2.37E-02 4.07E-02 6.97E-02 1.20E-01 1.76E-01 2.61E-01 3.83E-01 6.33E-01 1.68E+00 3.38E+00 8 1.42E-02 2.44E-02 4.18E-02 7.16E-02 1.23E-01 1.80E-01 2.67E-01 3.93E-01 6.48E-01 1.73E+00 3.49E+00 7 1.46E-02 2.51E-02 4.30E-02 7.37E-02 1.26E-01 1.85E-01 2.75E-01 4.03E-01 6.66E-01 1.79E+00 3.61E+00 6 1.54E-02 2.64E-02 4.52E-02 7.74E-02 1.33E-01 1.95E-01 2.87E-01 4.22E-01 6.96E-01 1.85E+00 3.73E+00 5 1.64E-02 2.81E-02 4.82E-02 8.26E-02 1.42E-01 2.08E-01 3.04E-01 4.47E-01 7.38E-01 1.92E+00 3.88E+00 4 1.75E-02 2.99E-02 5.13E-02 8.79E-02 1.51E-01 2.21E-01 3.21E-01 4.72E-01 7.78E-01 1.74E+00 3.50E+00 3.3 1.82E-02 3.12E-02 5.35E-02 9.17E-02 1.57E-01 2.31E-01 3.33E-01 4.89E-0I 8.06E-01 1.60E+00 3.22E+00 3 1.84E-02 3.16E-02 5.41E-02 9.27E-02 1.59E-01 2.33E-01 3.35E-01 4.92E-01 8.13E-01 1.47E+00 2.96E+00 2.5 1.88E-02 3.23E-02 5.53E-02 9.48E-02 1.62E-01 2.38E-01 3.40E-0I 5.00E-01 8.25E-01 1.24E+00 2.51E+00 2 1.66E-02 2.84E-02 4.86E-02 8.34E-02 1.43E-01 2.1OE-01 2.75E-01 4.04E-01 6.67E-01 1.07E+00 2.15E+00 1.5 1.42E-02 2.44E-02 4.18E-02 7.16E-02 1.23E-01 1.80E-01 2.32E-01 3.41E-01 5.63E-01 8.12E-01 1.64E+00 1.3 1.32E-02 2.26E-02 3.87E-02 6.64E-02 1.14E-01 1.67E-01 2.13E-01 3.13E-01 5.17E-01 7.1OE-01 1.43E+00 I 9.46E-03 1.62E-02 2.78E-02 4.76E-02 8.16E-02 1.20E-01 1.44E-01 2.11 E-01 3.49E-01 5.30E-01 1.07E+00 0.9 8.69E-03 1.49E-02 2.55E-02 4.37E-02 7.50E-02 1.10E-01 1.30E-01 1.90E-01 3.14E-01 4.62E-01 9.31E-01 0.8 7.90E-03 1.35E-02 2.32E-02 3.98E-02 6.82E-02 1.00E-01 1.16E-01 1.70E-01 2.80E-01 3.96E-01 7.99E-01 0.7 7.10E-03 1.22E-02 2.08E-02 3.57E-02 6.12E-02 8.99E-02 1.01E-01 1.49E-01 2.46E-0l 3.33E-01 6.71E-01 75 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table A-3. Scaled LF input control motions. Source: LCI (LCI, 2015a).Freq.(Hz)
LFI(g) LF2(g) LF3(g) LF4(g) LFS(g) LF6(g) LF7(g) LF8(g) LF9(g) LF10(g) LF11(g)0.6 6.18E-03 1.06E-02 1.81E-02 3.11E-02 5.33E-02 7.83E-02 8.60E-02 1.26E-01 2.08E-01 2.80E-01 5.64E-01 0.5 5.21E-03 8.93E-03 1.53E-02 2.62E-02 4.50E-02 6.60E-02 7.03E-02 1.03E-01 1.70E-01 2.31E-01 4.66E-01 0.4 4.19E-03 7.19E-03 1.23E-02 2.11E-02 3.62E-02 5.31E-02 5.66E-02 8.31E-02 1.37E-01 1.71E-01 3.44E-01 0.33 3.47E-03 5.96E-03 1.02E-02 1.75E-02 3.OOE-02 4.40E-02 4.69E-02 6.89E-02 1.14E-01 I1.32E-01 2.66E-01 0.3 3.15E-03 5.40E-03 9.25E-03 1.58E-02 2.72E-02 3.99E-02 4.25E-02 6.24E-02 1.03E-01 1.15E-01 2.33E-01 0.25 2.61E-03 4.47E-03 7.66E-03 1.31E-02 2.25E-02 3.30E-02 3.52E-02 5.16E-02 8.52E-02 8.96E-02 1.81E-01 0.2 2.08E-03 3.57E-03 6.12E-03 1.05E-02 1.80E-02 2.64E-02 2.81E-02 4.13E-02 6.82E-02 6.71E-02 1.35E-01 0.15 1.59E-03 2.73E-03 4.67E-03 8.01E-03 1.37E-02 2.01E-02 2.15E-02 3.15E-02 5.20E-02 4.48E-02 9.03E-02 0.13 1.39E-03 2.38E-03 4.08E-03 7.OOE-03 1.20E-02 1.76E-02 1.88E-02 2.75E-02 4.55E-02 3.66E-02 7.39E-02 0.1 1.04E-03 1.79E-03 3.06E-03 5.25E-03 8.99E-03 1.32E-02 1.41E-02 2.07E-02 3.41E-02 2.14E-02 4.32E-02 76 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table A-4. SAFs and uncertainty for seven spectral frequencies at associated reference rock amplitudes for PVNGS base-case profile. Source: Table 22 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).Low Frequency 0.5 Hz 1 Hz 2.5 Hz Median Median Median Amp. (g) SAF 0 1nn5AF) Amp. (g) SAF (In(SAF) Amp. (g) SAF OI 1 1 SAF)5.21E-03 1.16E+00 2.50E-01 9.46E-03 2.51E+00 2.94E-01 1.88E-02 1.83E+00 2.95E-01 8.93E-03 1.17E+00 2.50E-01 1.62E-02 2.53E+00 2.96E-01 3.23E-02 1.81E+00 2.90E-01 1.53E-02 1.17E+00 2.54E-01 2.78E-02 2.54E+00 3.04E-01 5.53E-02 1.77E+00 2.88E-01 2.62E-02 1.18E+00 2.58E-01 4.76E-02 2.53E+00 3.03E-01 9.48E-02 1.75E+00 2.87E-01 4.50E-02 1.20E+00 2.64E-01 8.16E-02 2.59E+00 2.93E-01 1.62E-01 1.75E+00 2.78E-01 6.60E-02 1.21E+00 2.70E-01 1.20E-01 2.58E+00 2.95E-01 2.38E-01 1.71E+00 2.85E-01 7.03E-02 1.24E+00 2.80E-01 1.44E-01 2.63E+00 2.93E-01 3.40E-01 1.71E+00 2.93E-01 1.03E-01 1.27E+00 2.79E-01 2.11 E-01 2.63E+00 2.90E-01 5.OOE-01 1.69E+00 3.08E-01 1.70E-01 1.32E+00 3.01E-01 3.49E-01 2.57E+00 3.01E-01 8.25E-01 1.61E+00 3.19E-01 2.31E-01 1.45E+00 3.28E-01 5.30E-01 2.42E+00 3.06E-01 1.24E+00 1.48E+00 3.OOE-01 4.66E-01 I1.77E+00 3.94E-01 1.07E+00 2.01E+00 3.27E-01 2.51E+00 1.20E+00 3.29E-01 High Frequency_
5 Hz 10 Hz 20 Hz PGA A (g) Median Amp (g) Median Amp (g) Median aIn(5 A) Amp (g) Median SAF SAF SAF SAF 0 1n(SAF)2.18E-02 1.84E+00 3.58E-01 2.05E-02 1.55E+00 4.56E-01 1.36E-02 1.71E+00 5.1OE-01 1.OOE-02 1.83E+00 3.57E-01 3.92E-02 1.79E+00 3.49E-01 3.70E-02 1.49E+00 4.43E-01 2.45E-02 1.63E+00 4.89E-01 1.80E-02 1.78E+00 3.42E-01 7.06E-02 1.73E+00 3.50E-01 6.66E-02 1.39E+00 4.45E-01 4.41E-02 1.51E+00 4.67E-01 3.24E-02 1.71E+00 3.33E-01 1.27E-01 1.64E+00 3.44E-01 1.20E-01 1.27E+00 4.30E-01 7.94E-02 1.36E+00 4.36E-01 5.83E-02 1.61E+00 3.18E-01 2.29E-01 1.56E+00 3.32E-01 2.16E-01 1.14E+00 4.11 E-0I 1.43E-01 1.22E+00 3.97E-01 1.05E-01 1.51E+00 2.97E-0I 3.40E-01 1.45E+00 3.32E-01 3.20E-01 1.02E+00 4.04E-01 2.12E-01 1.1OE+00 3.76E-01 1.56E-01 1.41E+00 2.93E-01 5.31E-01 1.32E+00 3.18E-01 5.04E-01 8.87E-01 3.84E-0I 3.38E-01 9.72E-01 3.43E-01 2.31E-01 1.31E+00 2.76E-01 7.89E-01 1.16E+00 3.21E-01 7.49E-01 7.57E-01 3.77E-01 5.02E-01 8.59E-01 3.20E-0I 3.44E-01 1.20E+00 2.70E-01 1.22E+00 9.75E-01 3.38E-01 1.16E+00 6.09E-01 3.57E-01 7.78E-01 7.40E-01 2.96E-01 5.33E-01 1.08E+00 2.67E-01 1.93E+00 7.77E-01 3.45E-01 1.78E+00 4.99E-0I 3.45E-01 1.21E+00 6.62E-01 2.88E-01 8.27E-01 9.81E-01 2.74E-0I 3.50E+00 5.51E-01 3.50E-01 3.22E+00 3.78E-01 2.96E-01 2.20E+00 5.49E-01 2.65E-01 1.50E+00 8.32E-01 2.62E-01 77 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table A-5. SAFs and uncertainty for seven spectral frequencies at associated reference rock amplitudes for PVNGS lower-range profile.Source: Table 23 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).Low Frequency 0.5 Hz 1 Hz 2.5 Hz Median Median Median Amp. (g) SAF 0 1n(SAF) Amp. (g) SAF IIn(SAF) Amp. (g) SAF aln(SAF)5.21E-03 1.33E+00 2.71E-01 9.46E-03 2.91E+00 2.97E-01 1.88E-02 2.17E+00 2.90E-01 8.93E-03 1.34E+00 2.76E-01 1.62E-02 2.86E+00 2.95E-01 3.23E-02 2.11E+00 2.78E-01 1.53E-02 1.35E+00 2.79E-01 2.78E-02 2.81E+00 2.93E-01 5.53E-02 2.04E+00 2.86E-01 2.62E-02 1.36E+00 2.96E-01 4.76E-02 2.75E+00 2.91E-01 9.48E-02 1.98E+00 2.83E-01 4.50E-02 1.39E+00 2.90E-01 8.16E-02 2.66E+00 2.98E-01 1.62E-01 1.86E+00 2.90E-01 6.60E-02 1.43E+00 3.07E-01 1.20E-01 2.55E+00 2.99E-01 2.38E-01 1.79E+00 2.86E-01 7.03E-02 1.47E+00 3.15E-01 1.44E-01 2.50E+00 2.98E-01 3.40E-01 1.72E+00 2.98E-01 1.03E-01 1.52E+00 3.39E-01 2.11 E-01 2.38E+00 3.03E-01 5.OOE-01 1.62E+00 3.09E-01 1.70E-01 1.64E+00 3.50E-01 3.49E-01 2.16E+00 3.29E-01 8.25E-01 1.45E+00 3.29E-01 2.31E-01 1.89E+00 3.60E-01 5.30E-01 1.92E+00 3.62E-01 1.24E+00 1.26E+00 3.36E-01 4.66E-01 2.25E+00 3.60E-01 1.07E+00 1.67E+00 3.45E-01 2.51E+00 9.61E-01 3.47E-01 High Frequency 5 Hz 10 Hz 20 Hz PGA MeinMedian Median Amp. (g) SAF 0 in(SAF) Amp. (g) Median (SAF) Amp- (g) San O.SAF) A______ _____ ____ SAF GnA) Am.() SAF OnSF Amp. (g) Median SAF OYln(SAF)2.18E-02 1.81E+00 3.49E-01 2.05E-02 1.51E+00 4.44E-01 1.36E-02 1.68E+00 4.85E-01 1.OOE-02 1.84E+00 3.37E-01 3.92E-02 1.76E+00 3.59E-01 3.70E-02 1.42E+00 4.40E-01 2.45E-02 1.57E+00 4.71E-01 1.80E-02 1.76E+00 3.35E-01 7.06E-02 1.70E+00 3.49E-01 6.66E-02 1.32E+00 4.25E-01 4.41E-02 1.44E+00 4.39E-01 3.24E-02 1.67E+00 3.16E-01 1.27E-01 1.56E+00 3.34E-01 1.20E-01 1.17E+00 4.09E-01 7.94E-02 1.26E+00 4.06E-01 5.83E-02 1.54E+00 3.OOE-01 2.29E-01 1.45E+00 3.25E-01 2.16E-01 1.03E+00 3.98E-01 1.43E-01 1.11E+00 3.74E-01 1.05E-01 1.43E+00 2.88E-01 3.40E-01 1.32E+00 3.34E-01 3.20E-01 9.04E-01 3.96E-01 2.12E-01 9.96E-01 3.54E-01 1.56E-01 1.33E+00 2.84E-01 5.31E-01 1.17E+00 3.23E-01 5.04E-01 7.58E-01 3.73E-01 3.38E-01 8.63E-01 3.17E-01 2.31E-01 1.21E+00 2.68E-01 7.89E-01 9.98E-01 3.24E-01 7.49E-01 6.35E-01 3.75E-01 5.02E-01 7.56E-0I 2.98E-01 3.44E-01 1.09E+00 2.61E-01 1.22E+00 8.1IE-0I 3.28E-01 1.16E+00 5.09E-01 3.41E-0I 7.78E-01 6.51E-0I 2.80E-01 5.33E-01 9.70E-01 2.62E-01 1.93E+00 6.1OE-0I 3.59E-01 1.78E+00 4.08E-01 3.27E-01 1.21E+00 5.71E-0I 2.86E-01 8.27E-01 8.59E-01 2.80E-01 3.50E+00 4.25E-01 3.58E-01 3.22E+00 3.08E-01 3.05E-01 2.20E+00 4.65E-0I 2.79E-01 1.50E+00 7.09E-01 2.76E-01 78 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Table A-6. SAFs and uncertainty for seven spectral frequencies at associated reference rock amplitudes for PVNGS upper-range profile.Source: Table 24 from LCI (LCI, 2015d).Low Frequency 0.5 Hz 1 Hz 2.5 Hz Median Median Median Amp. (g) SAF Amp. (g) SAF (FIn(SAF)
Amp. (g) SAF OIn(SAF)5.21E-03 1.07E+00 2.46E-01 9.46E-03 1.95E+00 3.04E-01 1.88E-02 1.58E+00 2.61E-01 8.93E-03 1.07E+00 2.49E-01 1.62E-02 1.96E+00 3.1OE-0I 3.23E-02 1.56E+00 2.74E-01 1.53E-02 1.08E+00 2.49E-01 2.78E-02 1.97E+00 3.13E-01 5.53E-02 i.55E+00 2.70E-01 2.62E-02 1.08E+00 2.52E-01 4.76E-02 2.01E+00 3.17E-01 9.48E-02 1.52E+00 2.71E-0I 4.50E-02 1.09E+00 2.52E-01 8.16E-02 2.02E+00 3.18E-01 1.62E-01 1.50E+00 2.74E-0I 6.60E-02 1.1OE+00 2.58E-01 1.20E-01 2.1OE+00 3.28E-01 2.38E-01 1.48E+00 2.84E-01 7.03E-02 1.12E+00 2.60E-01 1.44E-01 2.15E+00 3.26E-01 3.40E-01 1.47E+00 2.99E-01 1.03E-01 1.14E+00 2.66E-01 2.11 E-01 2.24E+00 3.26E-01 5.OOE-01 1.46E+00 2.97E-01 1.70E-01 1.17E+00 2.79E-01 3.49E-0I 2.34E+00 3.21E-01 8.25E-01 1.46E+00 3.27E-01 2.31E-01 1.25E+00 3.01E-01 5.30E-01 2.47E+00 3.17E-01 !.24E+00 1.49E+00 3.35E-01 4.66E-01 1.44E+00 3.67E-01 1.07E+00 2.28E+00 3.04E-01 2.51E+00 1.32E+00 3.17E-01 High Frequency 5 Hz 10 Hz 20 Hz PGA Median Median Median Median Amp. (g) SAF 0 1n(SAF) Amp. (g) SAF 0 1n(SAE) Amp. (g) SAF Ot.(SAF) Amp. (g) SAF OIn(SAF)2.18E-02 1.75E+00 3.53E-01 2.05E-02 1.49E+00 4.63E-01 I1.36E-02 1.69E+00 5.19E-01 L.OOE-02 1.79E+00 3.61E-0I 3.92E-02 1.73E+00 3.63E-01 3.70E-02 1.44E+00 4.55E-01 2.45E-02 1.64E+00 5.04E-01 1.80E-02 1.75E+00 3.53E-01 7.06E-02 1.70E+00 3.57E-01 6.66E-02 1.39E+00 4.45E-01 4.41E-02 1.54E+00 4.80E-01 3.24E-02 1.70E+00 3.38E-01 1.27E-01 1.65E+00 3.47E-01 1.20E-01 1.29E+00 4.32E-01 7.94E-02 1.42E+00 4.52E-01 5.83E-02 1.61E+00 3.22E-01 2.29E-01 1.57E+00 3.36E-01 2.16E-01 1.17E+00 4.20E-01 1.43E-01 1.27E+00 4.25E-01 1.05E-01 1.52E+00 3.08E-01 3.40E-01 1.50E+00 3.37E-01 3.20E-01 1.08E+00 4.18E-01 2.12E-01 1.17E+00 4.06E-01 1.56E-01 1.45E+00 3.04E-01 5.31E-0I 1.38E+00 3.34E-01 5.04E-01 9.64E-01 3.95E-01 3.38E-01 1.04E+00 3.72E-01 2.31E-01 1.35E+00 2.88E-01 7.89E-01 1.25E+00 3.23E-01 7.49E-01 8.30E-01 3.91E-01 5.02E-01 9.17E-01 3.39E-01 3.44E-01 1.25E+00 2.75E-01 1.22E+00 1.09E+00 3.27E-01 1.16E+00 6.98E-01 3.75E-01 7.78E-01 8.02E-01 3.17E-01 5.33E-01 1.13E+00 2.69E-01 1.93E+00 8.95E-01 3.20E-01 1.78E+00 5.68E-01 3.28E-01 1.21E+00 7.11E-01 2.74E-01 8.27E-01 1.03E+00 2.57E-01 3.50E+00 6.59E-01 3.60E-01 3.22E+00 4.31E-01 3.21E-01 2.20E+00 5.94E-O1 2.76E-01 1.50E+00 8.90E-01 2.70E-01 79 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Appendix B SSC PPRP Endorsement Letter This appendix provides the Participatory Peer Review Panel Closure Letter from (APS, 2015).February 26,2015 Dr. Ross Hartleb LCI Project Manager, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS) Seismic Hazard Evaluation Project Lettis Consultants International, Inc.27441 Tourney Road, Suite 220 Valencia, CA 91355 Subject- PVNGS SSHAC Level 3 Seismic Source Characterization
Dear Dr. Hartleb:
On March 12, 2012, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a request for information pursuant to 10CFR50.54(f), requiring that all operating nuclear plants in the U.S.perform a site-specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and develop a Ground Motion Response Spectrum (GMRS) in accordance with Regulatory Guide 1.208 for comparison to the plant license Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) ground motion. Licensees are required to re-evaluate the seismic hazard using present-day NRC regulatory criteria and guidance.
For plants in the western U.S., including the PVNGS, the directive requires that the site-specific PSHA be performed using the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC1, 2) Level 3 process to develop the Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) model.In accordance with the requirements for a SSHAC Level 3 study, the PVNGS SSC Participatory Peer Review Panel ("PPRP") is pleased to issue this PPRP Closure Letter containing our findings with respect to the PVNGS SSC Project The PPRP was actively engaged in the review of all phases and activities of the Project's implementation.
These phases included development of the Project Plan, planning and execution of the Technical Integration (TI) Team's evaluation and integration activities, and review of the TI Team's documentation of the SSC model. These phases are at the core of the SSHAC process.In accordance with NRC guidance for SSHAC projects, the role of the PPRP is to conduct a review of both the process followed and the technical assessments made by the TI Team. Accordingly, this letter documents the activities that the PPRP has carried out to perfbrm its review of the adequacy of the process followed, and its findings regarding the technical adequacy of the SSC.I Budnitz, R.I., G. Apostolakis, D.M. Boore, LS. Cluff, 1(L Coppersmith, CA. Cornell, and PA. Morris (1997). Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis:
Guidance on Uncertainty and the Use of Experts (known as the "Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee Report". or "SSHAC Guideline"), NUREG/CR-6372, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, TIC; 235076, Washington, D.C.2 USNRC (2012). Practical Implementation GuidelinesforSSHAC Level3 and 4 Hazard Studies, NUREG-2117, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, D.C.80 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 PPRP Activities for the SSC Peer Review The fundamental idea of a participatory peer review process entails the continual review of a project from its start to its completion.
Thus, proper participatory peer review requires adequate opportunities during the conduct of the project for the PPRP to understand the data being used, the analyses performed, the TI Team's evaluations and integration of the technical bases for its assessments, and the completeness and clarity of the documentation.
Participatory peer review also involves occasions for the PPRP to provide its reviews and comments in written form during the conduct of the project, such that their observations and recommendations can be considered by the TI Team in a timely manner prior to the completion of the project Written comments by the PPRP serve to document the review process and provide part of the formal record documenting that all aspects of the SS-AC process have been satisfactorily conducted.
The activities of the PPRP for the PVNGS SSC are summarized in the table below, which includes written reviews during the various stages of the project These activities directly addressed the conduct of the PVNGS SSC and the development of the SSC Report.Date PPRP Activity January 21, 2013 SSC Kickoff Meeting ("Workshop 0"); PPRP members attended in person as observers January 23, 2013 PPRP submitted review comments on the Project Plan via email April 9-11, 2013 SSC Workshop No. 1: Significant Issues and Data Needs;PPRP members attended in person as observers April 24, 2013 PPRP submitted written review comments on Kick-off Meeting June 5, 2013 PPRP submitted written review comments on Workshop 1 July 10, 2013 TI working meeting No. 4: PPRP members Savage and Machette attend portion of TI working meeting by phone as observers August 27-28, 2013 TI working meeting No. 5: PPRP member Rockwell attends portion of TI working meeting by phone as observer September 24-26, 2013 SSC Workshop No. 2: Alternative Interpretations; PPRP members attended in person as observers October 23,2013 PPRP submitted written review comments on Workshop No. 2 February 4-6, 2014 Field Review of Geologic Mapping: PPRP members attended in person as observers March 24,2014 PPRP submitted written review comments of Field Review of Geologic Mapping April 23-25, 2014 SSC Workshop No. 3: Preliminary Model and Hazard Feedback:
PPRP members attended in person as active participants 81 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Date PPRP Activity May 5, 2014 PPRP submitted written review comments on Workshop 3 June 18, 2014 Update on SSC Activities; PPRP members attended via webinar as observers July 10-11, 2014 SSC Final Briefing; PPRP members attended in person August 1, 2014 Update on SSC Activities; PPRP representatives attended via webinar as observers January 12. 2015 Submittal of review comments on SSC Report, transmittal 1 &2 January 17, 2015 Submittal of review comments on SSC Report, transmittal 3 January 19-22, 2015 Submittal of PPRP written review comments on SSC Report transmittals 1-3 and on TI Team's responses to PPRP written review comments February 17-19, 2015 Submittal of PPRP written review comments on PVNGS SSC Draft Report transmittal 4 and on TI Team's responses to PPRP written review comments February 19-25, 2015 Teleconference call to resolve remaining issues with SSC Draft Report (2/19) and review of TI Team's responses to teleconference call issues February 26,2015 Submittal of PVNGS SSC PPRP Closure Letter The activities listed above are those that directly addressed the conduct of the PVNGS SSC and the development of the PVNGS SSC Report, The PPRP has concluded that its ongoing review and feedback interactions with the TI Team during the conduct of the PVNGS SSC Project activities fully met the expectations for a SSHAC Level 3 study. From the presentation of the plans for conducting the PVNGS SSC at the start of the project to the completion of the PVNGS SSC Report, the TI Team provided multiple and effective communications with the PPRP. Webinars and written communications allowed the PPRP to fully understand the technical support for the TI Team's assessments.
The TI Team provided written responses to PPRP comments documenting that all comments had been adequately considered during the conduct of the work and the compilation of its documentation.
SSHAC Technical Review The role of the PPRP in the review of the technical aspects of the project is specified in NUREG-2117 (USNRC, 2012) as follows: "The PPRP fulfills two parallel roles, the first being technical review. This means that the PPRP is charged with ensuring that the full range of data, models, and methods have been duly considered in the assessment and also that all technical decisions are adequately justified and documented.
82 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 The responsibility of the PPRP is to provide clear and timely feedback to the Ti/TFI and project manager to ensure that any technical or process deficiencies are identified at the earliest possible stage so that they can be corrected.
More commonly, the PPRP provides its perspectives and advice regarding the manner in which ongoing activities can be improved or carried out more effectively.
In terms of technical review, a key responsibility of the PPRP is to highlight any data, models or proponents that have not been considered.
Beyond completeness, it is not the responsibility of the PPRP to judge the weighting of the logic trees in detail, but rather to judge the justification provided for the models included or excluded, and for the weights applied to the logic-tree branches." Consistent with this USNRC guidance, the PPRP reviewed at multiple times during the project the TI Team's analyses and evaluations of data, models, and methods. These reviews included conference calls, post-workshop meetings, written comments, and the review of drafts of the SSC Report. Through these reviews, the PPRP communicated feedback to the Ti Team regarding data and approaches that did not appear to have been considered, suggestions for methods being used within the technical community, and recommendations for ways that the documentation could be improved to include more discussion of the technical bases for the assessments.
Examples of PPRP feedback regarding technical aspects of the project can be found in the written comments provided following workshops and field trips and during the review of the draft final report. The TI Team was responsive to the questions, comments, and suggestions made by the PPRP relative to the technical aspects of the project. Therefore, the PPRP concludes that the technical aspects of the project have been adequately addressed.
SSHAC Process Review As explained in NUREG-2117 (IJSNRC, 2012), the SSHAC process consists of two important activities, described as follows: 'The fundamental goal of a SSHAC process is to carry out properly and document completely the activities of evaluation and integration, defined as: e Evaluation:
The consideration of the complete set of data, models, and methods proposed by the larger technical community that are relevant to the hazard analysis.e Integration:
Representing the center, body, and range of technically defensible interpretations in light of the evaluation process (i.e., informed by the assessment of existing data, models, and methods)." These activities are essential to any SSHAC Level study and to both new models and refinements to existing models (such as the PVNGS SSC).During the Evaluation phase of the PVNGS SSC, the TI Team considered new data, models, and methods that have become available in the technical community since the previous PVNGS PSHA 83 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 projects were completed in 1993 and 2012. In particular, the TI Team incorporated new earthquake occurrence models and carried out additional geologic mapping. The PPRP concluded that the TI Team conducted a satisfactory evaluation process and that this process has been sufficiently documented in the SSC report.During the Integration phase of the project, an updated SSC model was developed for purposes of the PVNGS PSHA. SSHAC guidelines require that the technical bases for the SSC model be documented thoroughly in the SSC report. The SSC document demonstrates the consideration by the TI Team of the existence of seismic-source data and models that have become available since the previous PVNGS SSC model was developed.
During the entire course of the PVNGS Project, The TI Team maintained close coordination with the SW[JS ground-motion characterization project to assure that the PVNGS SSC will connect seamlessly with the GMC model.Based on the review of the Evaluation and Integration activities conducted by the TI Team, as well as the documentation of these activities in the SSC report, the PPRP concludes that the SSHAC level 3 process has been adequately conducted.
Conclusion Based on its review of the PVNGS SSC, the PPRP concludes that the process and technical aspects of the analysis fully meet accepted guidance and current expectations for a SSHAC Level 3 study.We appreciate the opportunity to provide our review of the project.Sincerely, PVNGS SSC PPRP Members William U. Savage, Chair Michael N. Machette Thomas KI Rockwell 84 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Appendix C GMC PPRP Endorsement Letter This appendix provides the Participatory Peer Review Panel Closure Letter from (GeoPentech, 2015).February 24, 2015 Dr. Carola Di Alessandro SWUS Project Manager GeoPentech, Inc.525 N. Cabrillo Park Drive, Suite 280 Santa Ana, CA 92701
Subject:
Participatory Peer Review Panel Closure Letter, Southwest United States Ground Motion Characterization Level 3 SSHAC Project
Dear Dr. Di Alessandro:
The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP, also referred to herein as the 'Panel") for the Southwest United States (SWUS) Ground Motion Characterization (GMC) Project is pleased to issue this PPRP Closure Letter. Herein we describe our participation in the SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3 project and present our findings.
Pursuant to the guidelines for a SSHIAC Level 3 study (NUREGICR-6372; NUREG-2117), the PPRP was engaged at all stages of the project, including review of the final Project Plan, Workshop agendas and participant lists; the planning of the evaluation and model integration activities; and review of the project documentation.
Throughout the project, the Panel reviewed and provided regular feedback on both the process followed, and the technical assessments made, by the Technical Integrator (TI) Team. By this letter the Panel documents the activities it has performed in the course of its review, its assessment of the process followed relative to SSHAC Level 3 expectations, and its assessment of the technical rationale underlying the GMC model.PPRP Activities in Support of the SWUS GMC Review In a SSHAC Level 3 study, the PPRP fufitlls two roles. The first is that of technical review, in which the Panel ensures that the full range of data, models and methods are considered and that technical decisions and judgments are adequately justified and documented.
The second is that of process review, under which the Panel ensures that the study maintains conformity with the SSHAC Level 3 guidelines.
To fulfill these roles, the Panel requires adequate opportunities to gain understanding of the data being used, the analyses being performed, the TI Team's evaluations of data and models, and the technical justifications for the TI Team's model decisions.
The table below summarizes the formal project activities in which the Panel participated.
Fulfilling these roles also requires the Panel to provide regular feedback to the TI Team during the course of the project. In addition to verbal feedback during Working Meetings and Workshops, the Panel provided written comments and recommendations at key stages of the project.Those written submittals are also noted in the table.85 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Date PPRP Activity June 21, 2012 orking Meeting #1 (Planning).
All PPRP members attended.July 18, 2012 orking Meeting #2 (Planning).
All PPRP members attended.August 27, 2012 ick-off Meeting. All PPRP members attended.September 17, 2012 PRP submittal of written comments on the Project Plan.October 8, 2012 IVorking Meeting #3. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
November 3, 2012 PRP submittal of written comments on revised Project Plan.November 29, 2012 PRP submittal of PPRP endorsement letter for Project Plani December 10, 2012 orking Meeting #4. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
February 11, 2013 orking Meeting #5. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
March 19-21, 2013 orkshop #1: Critical issues and Data Needs. All PPRP members attended as rvers. The PPRP provided verbal feedback to the TI Team at the end of__ach day of the Workshop April 12, 2013 orking Meeting #6. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
April 21, 2013 PRP submittal of written comments on Workshop #1.May 23, 2013 orking Meeting #7. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
June 24, 2013 orking Meeting #8. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
July 16, 2013 orking Meeting #9. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
August 21, 2013 lorking Meeting #10. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
October 2, 2013 Porking Meeting #11. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
October 15, 2013 Norking Meeting #12. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
October 22-24, 2013 Workshop #2: Proponent Models and Alternative Interpretations.
All PPRP mbers attended as observers.
The PPRP provided verbal feedback to the TI Team at the end of each day of the Workshop.November 26, 2013 Working Meeting #13. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
December 3, 2013 PRP submittal of written comments on Workshop #2.January 2, 2014 orking Meeting #14. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
January 28-29, 2014 Special Working Meeting. All PPRP members attended as observers.
March 3, 2014 orking Meeting #15. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
March 10-12, 2014 orkshop #3: Preliminary GMC Models and Hazard Feedback.
All PPRP mbers attended as participants.
The PPRP provided verbal feedback to the 1"1 Team at the end of each day of the Workshop.March 24, 2014 orking Meeting #16. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
0pn1 21, 2014 PPRP submittal of written comments on Workshop #3.May 14, 2014 PRP Closure Pre-Briefing.
All PPRP members attended as participants.
July 17-18, 2014 PPRP Closure Briefing.
Al] PPRP members attended as participants.
December 13, 2D14 Submittal No. 1 of PPRP written review comments on SWUS GMC Report: Comments on SWUS GMC Report Rev.0, Chapters 7, 10, 11, 12,13, and Appendices L, M, N, and R.December 16, 2014 Teleconference, PPRP and TI Team, to discuss the PPRP written review comments, Submittal No. 1.January 5, 2015 Submittal No. 2 of PPRP written review comments on SWUS GMC Report: Comments on SWUS GMC Report Rev.0, Chapters 6, 8, 9, 14, and Appendices H, I, J, K, 0, and 0.January 7, 2015 Teleconference, PPRP and TI Team, to discuss the PPRP written review comments, Submittal No. 2.January 26, 2015 leeconference, PPRP and TI Team, to discuss the main modifications otroduced in SWUS GMC Report Draft Rev.1.February 9, 2015 Teleconference, PPRP and TI Team, to discuss observations from PPRP partial review of SWUS GMC Report Draft Rev.1.February 16, 2015 Teleconference, PPRP and Project Manager to discuss project completion schedule.February 20, 2015 Submittal No. 3 of PPRP written review comments on SWUS GMC Report: Comments on SWUS GMC Report Draft Rev.1.86 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 The PPRP finds that the level of ongoing review it was able to undertake, and the opportunities afforded the PPRP to provide feedback to the TI Team, met the expectations for a SSHAC Level 3 study. Interactions with the TI Team provided ample opportunity for the Panel to gain an understanding of the technical bases for the TI Team's evaluations.
The Panel also was given adequate opportunity to query the T1 Team, especially in Workshop #3 and in the Pre-Closure Briefing and Closure Briefing, to assess the justification provided for their model decisions.
The TI Team provided written responses to each formal PPRP submittal, and in nearly every case the PPRP and TI Team subsequently discussed the comments and replies in a conference call or Working Meeting.SSHAC Process Review NUREG-2117 describes the goal of a SSHAC process as being "to carry out properly and document completely the activities of evaluation and integration, defined as: Evaluation:
The consideration of the complete set of data, models and methods proposed by the larger technical community that are relevant to the hazard analysis.Inteqration:
Representing the center, body, and range of technically defensible interpretations in light of the evaluation process (i.e., informed by the assessment of existing data, models, and methods)." During the Evaluation activities, the TI Team considered new data, models and methods that have been introduced within the technical community since the previous seismic hazard studies were conducted for nuclear power plants in California and Arizona. The Team evaluated newly available ground motion databases, ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), and ground motion simulation techniques.
Notably, the TI Team evaluated methods for the representation of non-Gaussian aleatory variability, as well as newly available methods for the visualization and characterization of epistemic uncertainty in ground motion prediction.
The PPRP finds that the T1 Team's evaluation was consistent with the expectations for a SSHAC Level 3 study, and, apart from the specific reservation noted at the end of this section, was adequately documented.
The Integration phase entails thoroughly documenting the technical bases for all elements of the GMC model, to provide assurance that the center, body and range of technically defensible interpretations have been captured.
The TI Team used a new statistical technique to generate a suite of representative models for median ground motion prediction that collectively represent the epistemic uncertainty in ground motion more broadly than do the published GMPEs alone. This technique is combined wit a new method to select and weight the predictions of the expanded suite of models. The TI Team's method for assigning weights is based on consideration of appropriate data 87 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 sets and numerical simulations, with adequate justification.
The TI Team's model for aleatory variability and weighting of alternative aleatory models is also adequately justified.
The PPRP finds that the TI Team's GMC model integration is consistent with the expectations of a SSHAC Level 3 project, and, apart from the specific reservation noted in the next paragraph, was adequately documented.
The PPRP's reservation with respect to the documentation of the evaluation and integration phases of the study is based on the TI Team's inability to produce a final report based on the last set of comments from the Panel (Submittal No. 3, February 20, 2015) that were intended to improve the completeness and clarity of the documentation.
The TI Team was unable to revise the report in time for this letter to be issued in order to meet contractual obligations to provide written documentation to the utilities.
The TI Team did provide written responses to the Panel's comments and assured the Panel in writing that the final version of the report would take these comments into account SSHAC Technical Review NUREG-2117 describes the PPRP's technical review role as follows: "The PPRP fulfills two parallel roles, the first being technical review. This means that the PPRP is charged with ensuring that the full range of data, models, and methods have been duly considered in the assessment and also that all technical decisions are adequately justified and documented.
The responsibility of the PPRP is to provide dear and timely feedback to the TIITFI and project manager to ensure that any technical or process deficiencies are identified at the earliest possible stage so that they can be corrected.
More commonly, the PPRP provides its perspectives and advice regarding the manner in which ongoing activities can be improved or carried out more effectively.
In terms of technical review, a key responsibility of the PPRP is to highlight any data, models or proponents that have not been considered.
Beyond completeness, it is not within the remnt of the PPRP to judge the weighting of the logic-trees in detail but rather to judge the justification provided for the models included or exduded, and for the weights applied to the logic-tree branches." As summarized in the table above, the PPRP reviewed the TI Team's evaluations of data, models and methods on multiple occasions, and through various means, including written communications, in-person meetings, teleconferences, and review of the project report- The Panel was given adequate opportunity to question the TI Team concerning details of their analysis, and provided feedback verbally and in writing. The TI Team was responsive to the technical input from the Panel. The TI Team's responses induded evaluating additional data sets suggested by the Panel, undertaking additional 88 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 analyses to address specific Panel technical questions or concerns, and examining and assessing alternative technical approaches suggested by the Panel.The PPRP therefore concludes that it has been afforded an adequate basis for technical assessment of the TI Team's evaluations and model integration and finds that the project meets technical expectations for a SSHAC Level 3 study.Conclusion On the basis of its review of the SWUS GMC project, the PPRP finds that the project meets, with respect to both process and technical standards, the expectations for a SSHAC Level 3 study, with the reservation cited above. That reservation relates only to completeness of the documentation, which the TI Team has assured in writing will be rectified in the final report.Sincerely, Steven M. Day Chair, PPRP Brian Chiou Member, PPRP Kenneth W. Campbell Member, PPRP COmteO&QQ Thomas K. Rockwell Member, PPRP 89 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Appendix D SWUS GMC Project Transmittal Letter This appendix provides the SWUS GMC Project letter Transmittal ofSWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3 Technical Report (Rev. 2) from GeoPentech.
GeoPentech SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3 Project Project No.12024B March 10, 2015 Arizona Public Senrice Company Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS)Mr. Chflstop her J Wendell Senior Consulting "Chief' Civl Phone: (623) 393-6741 E-mail: christopher.andeltlaps.com Pacific Gas and Electric Company Diablo Canyon Power Plant (DCPP)Mr. Kent Fore'Manager Geosciences Phone: (415) 973-5291 E-mail: KSFl pge.com
Subject:
Transmittal of SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3 Technical Repott (Rev. 2)
Dear Messr. Fene' and Wandell:
This transmittal contains the Technical Report developed within the framework of the Southwestem U.S. Ground Motion Characterization (SWUS GMC) Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis (SSHAC) Level 3 Project, for application to the Diablo Canyon Power Plant (DCPP)and Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS) sites. The version of the Technical Report is Rev. 2 and has today's date.This report documents the Final GMC Models for the median and the standard deviation.
In this version of the report; the Technical Integrator (TI) Team has fully addressed the last set of comments received from the Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) on February 20, 2015, with the scope of improving the documentation completeness and clarity.This report contains a Rev. 2 of the Hazard Input Document (HID) model for DCPP, and a Rev.2 of the Hazard Input Document (HiD) model for PVNGS.525 K- Carlo Part ODtre. SuMB 2M0! Santa Ant Caltmsa 927ot Plcew (714) 769"100 Fax (7143 769"191 WO SWe: rra-gRcpEntecf&OOM 90 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Arizoam Abic Service wad Pacific C-as and Electic Company SWUS GMC Tec.mical Reaprt- Rev. 2 Math10, 2015 Page 2 The final GMC Models for application to DCPP and PVNGS did not change iith respect to the Rev. I Technical Report. Specifically, in the current Rev- 2 Technical Report the HID (Rev. 2)model for PVNGS is identical to the HID (Rev. 2) model for PVNGS included in the Rev. I Technical Report Also, the HID (Rev. 2) model for DCPP is identical to the HID (Rev. 1)model for DCPP included in the Rev. I Technical Report.If you have any question, or need more information, please do not hesitate to contact us. On behalf of the Technical Integration (TI) Team and the other SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3 Project participants, we thank Arizona Public Service and Pacific Gas and Electric Company for the support and cooperation.
Sincerefrc GeoPentech Carola Di Alessandro Project Manager John A. Bamneich Principal CC: PVNGS Project Technical Integrator Robin McGuire PVNGS Hazard Anal)ysts:
Melamie Walling and Gabriel Toro PVNGS SSC SSHAC Level 3 Project Manager Ross Hartleb SWUS GMC TI Team Lead- Norm Abrahamson
.GeoPentech M I1. lel5; StUS GMC T"chdncl Repr. En-. 2 91 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Appendix E GMC PPRP Endorsement Letter Revision 2 This appendix provides the March 10, 2015, Participatory Peer Review Panel Closure Letter.March 10, 2015 Dr. Carola Di Alessandro SWUS Project Manager GeoPentech, Inc.525 N. Cabrillo Park Drive, Suite 280 Santa Ana, CA 92701
Subject:
Participatory Peer Review Panel Closure Letter, Southwest United States Ground Motion Characterization Level 3 SSHAC Project
Dear Dr. Di Alessandro:
The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP, also referred to herein as the 'Panel') for the Southwest United States (SWUS) Ground Motion Characterization (GMC) Project is pleased to issue this PPRP Closure Letter. Herein we describe our participation in the SWUS GMC SSHAC Level 3 project and present our findings.
Pursuant to the guidelines for a SSHAC Level 3 study (NUREG/CR-6372; NUREG-21 17), the PPRP was engaged at all stages of the project, including review of the final Project Plan, Workshop agendas and participant lists; the planning of the evaluation and model integration activities; and review of the project documentation.
Throughout the project, the Panel reviewed and provided regular feedback on both the process followed, and the technical assessments made, by the Technical Integrator (TI) Team. By this letter the Panel documents the activities it has performed in the course of its review, its assessment of the process followed relative to SSHAC Level 3 expectations, and its assessment of the technical rationale underlying the GMC model.The PPRP issued a previous letter dated February 24, 2015. In that letter, the Panel noted that there were limitations in the completeness and clarity of the project documentation.
Those limitations were noted as exceptions to the Panel's finding that the project successfully met SSHAC Level 3 expectations.
Since that time, the TI Team has produced a final report, designated Rev2, addressing the final set of comments from the Panel (PPRP Submittal No. 3, February 20,2015).
The Panel has reviewed Rev2 (including a short addendum supplied to the PPRP in draft form on March 9 which the TI Team has assured in writing will be incorporated in the final version) and finds that all material concerns have been adequately addressed and are now closed, apart from one remaining exception that will be described at the end of the SSHAC Process Review section below. Two GMC models were developed for application to Diablo Canyon Power Plant (DCPP) and Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS), respectively.
The exception applies only to the GMC model for DCPP, and is not relevant to the case of PVNGS.92 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 PPRP Activities in Support of the SWUS GMC Review In a SSHAC Level 3 study, the PPRP fulfills two roles. The first is that of technical review, in which the Panel ensures that the full range of data, models and methods are considered and that technical decisions and judgments are adequately justified and documented.
The second is that of process review, under which the Panel ensures that the study maintains conformity with the SSHAC Level 3 guidelines.
To fulfill these roles, the Panel requires adequate opportunities to gain understanding of the data being used, the analyses being performed, the TI Team's evaluations of data and models, and the technical justifications for the TI Team's model decisions.
The table below summarizes the formal project acdivities in which the Panel participated.
Fulfilling these roles also requires the Panel to provide regular feedback to the TI Team during the course of the project. In addition to verbal feedback during Working Meetings and Workshops, the Panel provided written comments and recommendations at key stages of the project.Those written submittals are also noted in the table.Date PPRP Activity une 21, 2012 orking Meeting #1 (Planning).
Al PPRP members attended.July 18, 2012 orking Meeting #2 (Planning).
All PPRP members attended..ugust 27, 2012 ck-off Meeting. All PPRP members attended.September 17, 2012 PRP submittal of written comments on the Project Plan.ctober 8, 2012 Working Meeting #3. PPRP representatives attended as observers.-ovember 3, 2012 PPRP submittal of written comments on revised Project Plan.ovember 29, 2012 PPRP submittal of PPRP endorsement letter for Project Plan.ecember 10, 2012 Working Meeting #4. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
ebruary 11, 2013 Working Meeting #5. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
ararch 19-21,2013 Workshop #1: Critical issues and Data Needs. All PPRP members attended as servers. The PPRP provided verbal feedback to the T] Team at the end of e:ch day of the Workchop pril 12, 2013 'orking Meeting #6. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
pnl 21,2013 PRP submittal of written comments on Workshop #1.ay 23,.2013 orking Meeting #7. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
une 24, 2013 orking Meeting #8. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
uly 16.2013 orking Meeting #9. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
ugust 21, 2013 orking Meeting #10. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
ctober 2, 2013 orking Meeting #11. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
ctober 15, 2013 orking Meeting #12- PPRP representatives attended as observers.
October 22-24, 2013 Workshop #2: Proponent Models and Alternative Interpretations.
All PPRP Members attended as observers The PPRP provided verbal feedback to the T]ream at the end of each day of the Workshop.ovember 26, 2013 orking Meeting #13. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
ecember 3, 2013 PRP submittal of written comments on Workshop #2.anuary 2, 2014 Meeting #14. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
anuary 28-29, 2014 Cpecial Working Meeting. All PPRP members attended as observers.
arch 3, 2014 orking Meeting #15. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
arch 10-12, 2014 Corkshop #3: Preliminary GMC Models and Hazard Feedback.
All PPRP mbers attended as participants.
The PPRP provided verbal feedback to the n Team at the end of each day of the Workshop.March 24.,2014 orking Meeting #16. PPRP representatives attended as observers.
April 21, 2014 1PRP submittal of written comments on Workshop #3.2 93 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units L1 2. and 3 May 14, 2014 PRP Closure Pre-Briefing.
Al] PPRP members attended as participants.
July 17-18, 2014 PRP Closure Briefing.
All PPRP members attended as participants.
December 13, 2014 ubmittal No. 1 of PPRP written review comments on SWUS GMC Report: oomments on SWUS GMC Report Rev.0, Chapters 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, and_.ppendoess L, M. N. and R.December 16, 2014 leleconference, PPRP and TI Team, to discuss the PPRP written review comments, Submittal No. 1.January 5, 2015 Submittal No. 2 of PPRP written review comments on SWUS GMC Report: Comments on SWUS GMC Report Rev.0, Chapters 6, 8, 91 14, and Appendices H, I. J, K. 0, and 0.January 7, 2015 Teleconference, PPRP and TI Team, to discuss the PPRP written review comments, Submittal No. 2 January 26, 2015 Teleconference, PPRP and TI Team, to discuss the main modifications introduced in SWUS GMC Report Draft Rev.1.February 9,2015 eleconference, PPRP and Ti Team, to discuss observations from PPRP partial review of SWUS GMC Report Draft Rev.1.February 16, 2015 eleconference, PPRP and Project Manager to discuss project completion schedule.February 20, 2015 Submittal No. 3 of PPRP written review comments on SWUS GMC Report: Comments on SWUS GMC Report Draft Rev.1.February 24, 2015 ;ubmittal of Closure Letter based on Draft Rev.1 The PPRP finds that the level of ongoing review it was able to undertake, and the opportunities afforded the PPRP to provide feedback to the TI Team, met the expectations for a SSHAC Level 3 study. Interactions with the TI Team provided ample opportunity for the Panel to gain an understanding of the technical bases for the TI Team's evaluations.
The Panel also was given adequate opportunity to query the TI Team, especially in Workshop #3 and in the Pre-Closure Briefing and Closure Briefing, to assess the justification provided for their model decisions.
The TI Team provided written responses to each formal PPRP submittal, and in nearly every case the PPRP and TI Team subsequently discussed the comments and replies in a conference call or Working Meeting.SSHAC Process Review NUREG-2117 describes the goal of a SSHAC process as being 'to carry out properly and document completely the activities of evaluation and integration, defined as: Evaluation:
The consideration of the complete set of data, models and methods proposed by the larger technical community that are relevant to the hazard analysis.Integration:
Representing the center, body, and range of technically defensible interpretations in light of the evaluation process (i.e., informed by the assessment of existing data, models, and methods)." During the Evaluation activities, the TI Team considered new data, models and methods that have been introduced within the technical community since the previous seismic hazard studies were conducted for nuclear power plants in California and Arizona. The 3 94 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 Team evaluated newly available ground motion databases, ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), and ground motion simulation techniques.
Notably, the TI Team evaluated methods for the representation of non-Gaussian aleatory variability, as well as newly available methods-for the visualization and characterization of epistemic uncertainty in ground motion prediction.
The PPRP finds that the TI Team's evaluation and the documentation thereof are consistent with the expectations for a SSHAC Level 3 study, apart from the specific reservation noted at the end of this section.The Integration phase entails thoroughly documenting the technical bases for all elements of the GMC model, to provide assurance that the center, body and range of technically defensible interpretations have been captured.
The TI Team used a new statistical technique to generate a suite of representative models for median ground motion prediction that collectively represent the epistemic uncertainty in ground motion more broadly than do the published GMPEs alone. This technique is combined with a new method to select and weight the predictions of the expanded suite of models. The TI Team's method for assigning weights is based on consideration of appropriate data sets and numerical simulations, with adequate justification.
The TI Team's model for aleatory variability and weighting of alternative aleatory models is also adequately justified.
The PPRP finds that the TI Team's GMC model integration and the documentation thereof are consistent with the expectations of a SSHAC Level 3 project apart from the specific reservation noted in the next paragraph.
The Panel finds that the TI Team's evaluation of directivity models has limitations.
The TI Team make use of a simplified directivity model to save computational time, and the final report adequately describes that model, how it is used, and some of its limitations.
However, because the simplified model is unpublished, it is also necessary for the TI Team to document that the simplified model is appropriate for the purpose for which it is applied, in the sense that it gives results that are essentially consistent with the published and peer-reviewed model that it is intended to approximate.
The final report (in the March 9 addendum) documents the performance of the simplified model through comparison with results from a hazard calculation that uses the full, published directivity model. At hazard levels of 10 4 and above, the full model calculation confirms the conclusion obtained using the simplified model. At hazard levels below 10a 4 , however, the difference in calculated hazard between the full model and the simplified model increases with decreasing hazard level. This increasing trend has not been satisfactorily explained, has not been explored beyond the single fault case provided in the March 9 addendum, and has not been quantified in terms of impact on equal-hazard spectra at hazard levels of 10"( and lower. Because the key rationale for the zero weighting of the directivity branch in the GMC model for periods longer than 0.5 s (the period range where the directivity effect applies) is the weak sensitivity of hazard to the directivity effect calculated using the simplified model, the PPRP finds that this weighting lacks sufficient technical justification.
4 95 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 SSHAC Technical Review NUREG-2117 describes the PPRP's technical review role as follows: 'The PPRP fulfills two parallel roles, the first being technical review. This means that the PPRP is charged with ensuring that the full range of data, models, and methods have been duly considered in the assessment and also that all technical decisions are adequately justified and documented.
The responsibility of the PPRP is to provide clear and timely feedback to the TIITFI and project manager to ensure that any technical or process deficiencies are identified at the earliest possible stage so that they can be corrected.
More commonly, the PPRP provides its perspectives and advice regarding the manner in which ongoing activities can be improved or carried out more effectively.
In terms of technical review, a key responsibility of the PPRP is to highlight any data, models or proponents that have not been considered.
Beyond completeness, it is not within the remit of the PPRP to judge the weighting of the logic-trees in detail but rather to judge the justification provided for the models included or excluded, and for the weights applied to the logic-tree branches." As summarized in the table above, the PPRP reviewed the TI Team's evaluations of data, models and methods on multiple occasions, and through various means, including written communications, in-person meetings, teleconferences, and review of the project report. The Panel was given adequate opportunity to question the TI Team concerning details of their analysis, and provided feedback verbally and in writing. The TI Team was responsive to the technical input from the Panel. The TI Team's responses included evaluating additional data sets suggested by the Panel, undertaking additional analyses to address specific Panel technical questions or concerns, and examining and assessing alternative technical approaches suggested by the Panel.The PPRP therefore concludes that it has been afforded an adequate basis for technical assessment of the TI Team's evaluations and model integration.
As noted above in the final paragraph of the SSHAC Process Review section, the evaluation of directivity effects has been inadequate and may constitute a technical limitation of the study. Apart from that reservation, the PPRP finds that the project meets technical expectations for a SSHAC Level 3 study.Conclusion On the basis of its review of the SWUS GMC project the PPRP finds that the project meets, with respect to both process and technical standards, the expectations for a 96 of 97 Enclosure Seismic Hazard and Screening Report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Stations Units 1, 2, and 3 SSHAC Level 3 study, with the reservation cited above. That reservation pertains specifically to application of the direclivity component of the GMC model to the DCPP site.Sincerely, Steven M. Day Chair, PPRP Brian Chiou Member, PPRP Kwvuktt Li. CL m 4QQ.Kenneth W. Campbell Member, PPRP Thomas K. Rockwell Member, PPRP 97 of 97