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| issue date = 06/30/2014
| issue date = 06/30/2014
| title = June 30 NRC Slides for Public Meeting with Duke - NTTF 2.1 - Seismic Reevaluation - GMRS
| title = June 30 NRC Slides for Public Meeting with Duke - NTTF 2.1 - Seismic Reevaluation - GMRS
| author name = Balazik M F
| author name = Balazik M
| author affiliation = NRC/NRR/JLD
| author affiliation = NRC/NRR/JLD
| addressee name =  
| addressee name =  
Line 9: Line 9:
| docket = 05000261
| docket = 05000261
| license number =  
| license number =  
| contact person = Balazik M F, NRR/JLD, 415-2856
| contact person = Balazik M, NRR/JLD, 415-2856
| document type = Meeting Briefing Package/Handouts, Slides and Viewgraphs
| document type = Meeting Briefing Package/Handouts, Slides and Viewgraphs
| page count = 20
| page count = 20
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=Text=
=Text=
{{#Wiki_filter:Near-term Task Force Recommendation21SeismicRecommendation 2.1 Seismic Hazard EvaluationDuke Energy gyJune 30, 2014 ReferencesforMeetingReferences for Meeting*Licensee Presentation Slides -ML14181A032*NRC Presentation Slides -ML141181A078*Public Meeting Agenda -ML14167A164MtiFdbkF(tffb@)*Meeting Feedback Form (request from mfb@nrc.gov) *May 9, 2014, NRC letter regarding Seismic Screening and Prioritization Results for central and eastern US Licensees(ML14111A147)*May 21, 2014, NRC memo providing preliminary staff groundmotionresponsespectraforcentralandground motion response spectra for central and eastern Licensees(ML14136A126)*Meeting Summary to be issued within 30-day MeetingIntroductionMeeting IntroductionPurpose: support information exchange and begin dialog to have ddifhfhidiffcommon understanding of the causes of the primary differences between the preliminary NRC and licensee seismic hazard results
{{#Wiki_filter:Near-term Task Force Recommendation 2  2.1 1 Seismic Hazard Evaluation Duke Energygy June 30, 2014
 
References for Meeting
* Licensee Presentation Slides - ML14181A032
* NRC Presentation Slides - ML141181A078
* Public Meeting Agenda - ML14167A164
* M ti FFeedback Meeting     db k FForm ((requestt ffrom mfb@nrc.gov) fb@        )
* May 9, 2014, NRC letter regarding Seismic Screening and Prioritization Results for central and eastern US Licensees (ML14111A147)
* May 21, 2014, NRC memo providing preliminary staff ground motion response spectra for central and eastern Licensees (ML14136A126)
* Meeting Summary to be issued within 30-day
 
Meeting Introduction
 
==Purpose:==
support information exchange and begin dialog to have common understanding d      di off the h causes off the h primary i    diff differences between the preliminary NRC and licensee seismic hazard results


==Background:==
==Background:==
NRCandlicenseeseismichazardrequireresolution
NRC and licensee seismic hazard require resolution to support a final seismic screening decision and to support related follow-on submittals Outcomes:
* Begin NRC and licensee resolution to support regulatory decisions and development of seismic risk evaluations, as appropriate
* Establish resolution path, including timelines and identification of potential information needs
 
Look-ahead:
Potentiall Next Steps
* NRC will consider the meeting information
* Potential paths:
  - Licensee Li          submits b it supplemental l    t l iinformation f    ti bbased d
on public meeting dialog
  - NRC staff issues a request for information
  - Licensee sends a revision or supplement to the seismic hazard report
* NRC completes screening review and issues th fi the  finall screening i d determination t    i ti lletter tt
 
R 2.1-Seismic Hazard Analysis H.B. Robinson NPP Vladimir Graizer Sarah Tabatabai June 30, 2014 5
 
6 HB Robinson GMRS 1 60 1.60 GMRS Duke 1.40 SSE appl 1.20 NRC GMRS 1.00        NRC Preliminary 0.80 SA (g)
S        0.60 0.40 0 20 0.20 0.00 0.1                    1                  10          100 Freq enc Hz Frequency, H Preliminary run was performed without kappa.        7


==Background:==
Primary Differences
NRC and licensee seismic hazard require resolution to support a final seismic screening decision and to support related follow-on submittalsOutcomes: *Begin NRC and licensee resolution to support regulatory decisionsanddevelopmentofseismicriskevaluations,asdecisions and development of seismic risk evaluations, as appropriate*Establish resolution path, including timelines and identification of potential information needs Look-ahead:lPotential Next Steps*NRCwillconsiderthemeetinginformationNRC will consider the meeting information*Potential paths:Libitltliftibd-Licensee submits supplemental information based on public meeting dialogNRCstaffissuesarequestforinformation-NRC staff issues a request for information-Licensee sends a revision or supplement to the seismichazardreportseismic hazard report*NRC completes screening review and issues thfilidtitilttthe final screening determination letter R 2.1-Seismic Hazard Analysis H.B. Robinson NPP Vladimir GraizerSarahTabatabaiSarah TabatabaiJune 30, 20145 6
* Impact of licensees licensee s revision of CEUS-SSC CEUS SSC
160HB Robinson GMRS1.401.60GMRS DukeSSE appl1.001.20NRC GMRSNRC Preliminary0.60 0.80SA (g)0200.40S0.000.200.1110100FreqencH7Frequency, HzPreliminary run was performed without kappa.
* Thickness of Alluvium layer
PrimaryDifferencesPrimary Differences*Impactoflicensee'srevisionofCEUS-SSCImpact of licensees revision of CEUSSSC *Thickness of Alluvium layer*NRCVsprofilesbasedonregional*NRC Vs profiles based on regional measurements of Middendorfformation*LargeepistemicuncertaintyinLicensee'sVs*Large epistemic uncertainty in Licensees Vs profiles-BasisforP3shearwavevelocities?Basis for P3 shear wave velocities?*Use of EPRI Rock (M3) for Lower Base Case VelocityProfile(P2)Velocity Profile (P2)8 RevisionofSourceModelRevision of Source Model*50.54(f) letter specified use of CEUS-SSC model withoutneedforsitespecificgeologicinvestigationswithout need for site specific geologic investigations*Section 2.2 of SPID states that use of CEUS-SSC "as publishedisappropriate"published is appropriate*CEUS-SSC conducted as Level 3 SSHAC process and endorsedbyNRCendorsed by NRC*Per NUREG-2117 update of SSHAC 3 would need to beperformedasformalSSHACprocessandrequirebe performed as formal SSHAC process and require subsequent NRC review*NRC unable to evaluate impact of update without pprock hazard curves for Robinson9 Site Location: Southwest shore of Lake Robinson in northwest Darlington County, South Carolina10 Comparison of Site Response ProfilesH.B. RobinsonControl PointDepth toShear-Wave Velocity ReferenceG/Gmaxand DampingLicenseeNRC StaffLicenseeNRC StaffLicenseeNRC StaffGround Ground 460 ft 460 ftAlluvium Alluvium (EPRI Surface; above
* NRC Vs profiles based on regional measurements of Middendorf formation
: 1) 56 ft Alluvium, surface above
* Large epistemic uncertainty in Licensees Licensee s Vs profiles
: 1) 30 ft Alluvium, (randomized +-93 ft) (randomized with Sig=0.2)(M1=EPRI Soil, M2=Peninsular, M3=EPRI Soil; equally Soiland Peninsular; equally weighted);
  - Basis for P3 shear wave velocities?
MiddendorfFm2) 404 ft Middendorf Fm.,
* Use of EPRI Rock (M3) for Lower Base Case Velocity Profile (P2) 8
: 3) Pre-2) 430 ftMiddendorf Fm.,  
 
: 3) Pre-weighted); MiddendorfFm (M1=EPRI Soil, M2=Peninsular, (EPRI Soil, and Peninsular; equally weighted);
Revision of Source Model
Total kappa = Cambrian crystalline rockCambrian crystalline rockM3=EPRI Rock; equally weighted);
* 50.54(f) letter specified use of CEUS-SSC model without need for site specific geologic investigations
Hard rock kappa 0.0145 s. Hard rock kappa =
* Section 2.2 of SPID states that use of CEUS-SSC as published is appropriate appropriate
0.006 s= 0.006 s*Control point defined at the top of alluvium FSAR Appendix 2.5E, letter from Dr. Housner)*Licensee considered the following modifications from MACTEC (URS, 2012):Allilli56ftitdf30ft(ifidithFSAR)Alluvial layer is 56 ftinstead of 30 ft(as specified in the FSAR)11 VsProfileDevelopmentVs Profile Development*Section 2.5.4.1 (page 2.5.4-1) of UFSAR states: (pg)"These sediments are comprised of about 30 ftof surface alluvium over 430 ftof Middendorfformation"formation*Figure 2.5.1-2 of UFSAR also has 30 ftfor alluvium layer and Vs=3600 ft/sec for the Middendorfformation*Odumet al., 2003 estimates Vs=2840 ft/sec at 89 ftdepthforMiddendorfftdepth for Middendorf*NRC assumed a factor of 1.29 for epistemic uncertainty to develop base case profilesypp12 Site Profile from FSARTable 1. S-wave velocities at H. B. Robinson NPP (from UFSAR Figure 2.5.1-2).Depth to Bottom (ft)Thickness(ft)Geologic FormationAssigned S-wave velocity (ft/s)Unit weight (pcf)Comment()()3030Alluvium750125Moderatelycompact alluvial sandsand gravels. Developed from gpthe MiddendorfFm.460430Middendorf Formation3600130Sands (compact), siltyand sandy clay (firmto hard), sandstoneand )siltstone.PiedmontCrystalline Basement1000017013 00200040006000800010000Shear-Wave Velocity (ft/sec)AlluviumSCDOT Geotechnical Design Manual (2008):Information from other sites:100Dense sand and gravelVs= 650 to 1,350 ft/s200nt (ft)300w Control PoinMiddendorfFm. (Tuscaloosa Fm.)Tuscaloosa Fm. Vs=2840 ft/s at 89 ft(Odumet al.,
* CEUS-SSC conducted as Level 3 SSHAC process and endorsed by NRC
2003)400Depth Below500NRC-BCNRC-LBC600NRC-UBCLicensee-BCLicensee-LBCLicensee-UBC14 KappaDevelopmentKappa Development*NRCusedCampbell'seqntoestimatethetotalNRC used Campbells eqnto estimate the total site kappa-Usingthicknessof460ftgiveskappavalueof85-Using thickness of 460 ftgives kappa value of 8.5 msecfor soil-Totalsitekappais145msecTotal site kappa is 14.5 msec-Effective kappa is about 11 msec(for middle base caseprofile)case profile)15 Kappa checkDepth (ft)Thickness (ft)BC VsLBC VsUBC VsG2/D2Small Strain DampingQKappa BCKappa LBCKappa UBCG2/D2Small Strain DampingQKappa BCKappa LBCKappa UBC20.0020.0010007741292E soil 0-201.42934.990.00060.00070.0004Pen 0-501.0647.170.000420.000550.0003330.0010.0010007741292E soil 20-501.14243.780.00020.00030.0002Pen 0-501.0647.170.000210.000270.0001650.0020.00349927084521E soil 20-501.14243.780.00010.00020.0001Pen 0-501.0647.170.000120.000160.0000970.0020.00350927154534E soil 50-120150.000.00010.00010.0001Pen 50-5000.683.330.000070.000090.0000590.0020.00351927234547E soil 50-120150.000.00010.00010.0001Pen 50-5000.683.330.000070.000090.00005110.0020.00352927314560E soil 50-120150.000.00010.00010.0001Pen 50-5000.683.330.000070.000090.00005120.0010.00354127414576E soil 50-120150.000.00010.00010.0000Pen 50-5000.683.330.000030.000040.00003140.0020.00354127414576E soil 120-2500.85758.340.00010.00010.0001Pen 50-5000.683.330.000070.000090.00005190.0050.00356127564602E soil 120-2500.85758.340.00020.00030.0002Pen 50-5000.683.330.000170.000220.00013240.0050.00358627754634E soil 120-2500.85758.340.00020.00030.0002Pen 50-5000.683.330.000170.000220.00013250.0010.00361127954666E soil 120-2500.85758.340.00000.00010.0000Pen 50-5000.683.330.000030.000040.00003290.0040.00361127954666E soil 250-5000.78663.610.00020.00020.0001Pen 50-5000.683.330.000130.000170.00010340.0050.00363628144699E soil 250-5000.78663.610.00020.00030.0002Pen 50-5000.683.330.000170.000210.00013390.0050.00366128334731E soil 250-5000.78663.610.00020.00030.0002Pen 50-5000.683.330.000160.000210.00013460.0070.00369128574770E soil 250-5000.78663.610.00030.00040.0002Pen 50-5000.683.330.000230.000290.000180.00290.00370.00220.00210.00270.001616H (ft) =460Kappa "budget" =0.0145kappa BC=0.0120kappa LBC=0.0113kappa UBC=0.0126 Comparison of Duke and NRC SAFs from Base ProfilesandEPRIsoilrelationsProfiles and EPRI soil relations.450HB_Robinson SAF3.504.004.50M1PM1P+sigM1P-sigBase prof, EPRI, bed sig=0.2EPRI+sigEPRIi2.50 3.00nEPRI-sig1.00 1.502.00Amplification0.00 0.500.1110100A17Frequency, Hz 1.60HB Robinson GMRS1.40GMRS DukeSSEappl1.001.20SSE applNRC GMRS0600.80SA (g)0.400.60S0.000.20011101000.1110100Frequency, Hz18 PrimaryDifferencesPrimary Differences*Impactoflicensee'supdateofCEUS-SSCImpact of licensees update of CEUSSSC *Thickness of Alluvium layer*NRCVsprofilesbasedonregional*NRC Vs profiles based on regional measurements of Middendorfformation*LargeepistemicuncertaintyinLicensee'sVs*Large epistemic uncertainty in Licensees Vs profiles-BasisforP3shearwavevelocities?Basis for P3 shear wave velocities?*Use of EPRI Rock (M3) for Lower Base Case VelocityProfile(P2)Velocity Profile (P2)19 ReferencesReferences*H. B. Robinson Updated FSAR.*URS, 2012.,*Assessment of Seismic Hazard at 34 U.S, Nuclear Plant Sites. EPRI Final Report, August 2008. 1016736.*SeismicEalationGidanceScreeningPrioritiationand*Seismic Evaluation Guidance. Screening, Prioritization and Implementation Details (SPID) for the Resolution of Fukushima Near-Term Task Force Recommendation 2.1: Seismic. 2013 ThilRtTechnical Report.*USGS OFR 03-043. OdumJ.K. et al., Near-Surface S-wave and P-wave Velocities of Primary Geological Formations on the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain of South Carolina, USA . 2003.*GEOTECHNICALEARTHQUAKEENGINEERING. SCDOT Geotechnical Design Manual.2008Manual. 200820}}
* Per NUREG-2117 update of SSHAC 3 would need to be performed as formal SSHAC process and require subsequent NRC review
* NRC unable to evaluate impact p of update p    without rock hazard curves for Robinson 9
 
Site Location: Southwest shore of Lake Robinson in northwest Darlington County, South Carolina 10
 
Comparison of Site Response Profiles H.B. Robinson Control Point            Depth to Shear-Wave                G/Gmax and Damping Velocity Reference Licensee      NRC Staff Licensee NRC Staff                  Licensee            NRC Staff Ground        Ground          460 ft      460 ft      Alluvium          Alluvium (EPRI Surface;      surface        (randomiz (randomiz (M1=EPRI Soil,            Soil and above          above          ed +-93      ed with      M2=Peninsular,      Peninsular; equally
: 1) 56 ft      1) 30 ft        ft)          Sig=0.2)    M3=EPRI Soil;      weighted);
Alluvium,      Alluvium,                                equally            Middendorf Fm
: 2) 404 ft      2) 430 ft                                 weighted);          (EPRI Soil, and Middendorf Middendorf                                    Middendorf Fm      Peninsular; equally Fm.,          Fm.,                                      (M1=EPRI Soil,      weighted);
: 3) Pre-        3) Pre-                                   M2=Peninsular,     Total kappa =
Cambrian      Cambrian                                  M3=EPRI Rock; 0.0145 s.
crystalline    crystalline                              equally             Hard rock kappa =
rock          rock                                      weighted);         0.006 s Hard rock kappa
                                                            = 0.006 s
* Control point defined at the top of alluvium FSAR Appendix 2.5E, letter from Dr. Housner)
* Licensee considered the following modifications from MACTEC (URS, 2012):
Alluvial All i l llayer iis 56 ft instead i t d off 30 ft (as
( specified ifi d iin th the FSAR) 11
 
Vs Profile Development
* Section 2.5.4.1 (p (page g 2.5.4-1)) of UFSAR states:
These sediments are comprised of about 30 ft of surface alluvium over 430 ft of Middendorf formation formation
* Figure 2.5.1-2 of UFSAR also has 30 ft for alluvium layer and Vs=3600 ft/sec for the Middendorf formation
* Odum et al., 2003 estimates Vs=2840 ft/sec at 89 ft depth for Middendorf
* NRC assumed a factor of 1.29 for epistemic uncertaintyy to developp base case pprofiles 12
 
Site Profile from FSAR Table 1. S-wave velocities at H. B. Robinson NPP (from UFSAR Figure 2.5.1-2).
Assigned Unit Depth to                Geologic    S-wave Thickness                            weight          Comment Bottom                  Formation    velocity (ft)                              (pcf)
((ft))                              ((ft/s))
Moderately compact 30          30        Alluvium                      alluvial sands and 750      125 gravels. Developed g              p from the Middendorf Fm.
Sands (compact), silty Middendorf                    and sandy clay (firm to 460        430                      3600      130 Formation                      hard),) sandstone and siltstone.
Piedmont Crystalline  10000      170 Basement 13
 
Information from other sites:                                                    Shear-Wave Velocity (ft/sec) 0      2000      4000      6000        8000  10000 SCDOT Geotechnical Design                                      0 Manual (2008):                                                                                                              Alluvium Dense sand and gravel Vs= 650 to 1,350 ft/s 100 200 Depth Below w Control Poin nt (ft)
Tuscaloosa Fm. Vs=2840                                                                                                      Middendorf Fm.
ft/s at 89 ft (Odum et al.,                                                                                                 (Tuscaloosa Fm.)
2003) 300 400 NRC-BC 500      NRC-LBC NRC-UBC Licensee-BC Licensee-LBC Licensee-UBC                                                  14 600
 
Kappa Development
* NRC used Campbell Campbellss eqn to estimate the total site kappa
  - Using thickness of 460 ft gives kappa value of 8 8.5 5
msec for soil
  - Total site kappa is 14 14.5 5 msec
  - Effective kappa is about 11 msec (for middle base case profile) 15
 
Kappa check Small                                              Small Thickness                                        Strain        Kappa    Kappa  Kappa              Strain                Kappa    Kappa Depth (ft) (ft)       BC Vs  LBC Vs UBC Vs      G2/D2      Damping    Q    BC       LBC    UBC    G2/D2    Damping    Q  Kappa BC  LBC      UBC 20.00      20.00    1000    774    1292 E soil 0-20      1.429 34.99 0.0006    0.0007 0.0004 Pen 0-50        1.06 47.17 0.00042 0.00055 0.00033 30.00      10.00    1000    774    1292 E soil 20-50      1.142 43.78 0.0002    0.0003 0.0002 Pen 0-50        1.06 47.17 0.00021 0.00027 0.00016 50.00      20.00    3499    2708    4521 E soil 20-50      1.142 43.78 0.0001    0.0002 0.0001 Pen 0-50        1.06 47.17 0.00012 0.00016 0.00009 70.00      20.00    3509    2715    4534 E soil 50-120          1 50.00 0.0001    0.0001 0.0001 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00007 0.00009 0.00005 90.00      20.00    3519    2723    4547 E soil 50-120          1 50.00 0.0001    0.0001 0.0001 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00007 0.00009 0.00005 110.00      20.00    3529    2731    4560 E soil 50-120          1 50.00 0.0001    0.0001 0.0001 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00007 0.00009 0.00005 120.00      10.00    3541    2741    4576 E soil 50-120          1 50.00 0.0001    0.0001 0.0000 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00003 0.00004 0.00003 140.00      20.00    3541    2741    4576 E soil 120-250    0.857 58.34 0.0001    0.0001 0.0001 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00007 0.00009 0.00005 190.00      50.00    3561    2756    4602 E soil 120-250    0.857 58.34 0.0002    0.0003 0.0002 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00017 0.00022 0.00013 240.00      50.00    3586    2775    4634 E soil 120-250    0.857 58.34 0.0002    0.0003 0.0002 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00017 0.00022 0.00013 250.00      10.00    3611    2795    4666 E soil 120-250    0.857 58.34 0.0000    0.0001 0.0000 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00003 0.00004 0.00003 290.00      40.00    3611    2795    4666 E soil 250-500    0.786 63.61 0.0002    0.0002 0.0001 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00013 0.00017 0.00010 340.00      50.00    3636    2814    4699 E soil 250-500    0.786 63.61 0.0002    0.0003 0.0002 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00017 0.00021 0.00013 390.00      50.00    3661    2833    4731 E soil 250-500    0.786 63.61 0.0002    0.0003 0.0002 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00016 0.00021 0.00013 460.00      70.00    3691    2857    4770 E soil 250-500    0.786 63.61 0.0003    0.0004 0.0002 Pen 50-500        0.6 83.33 0.00023 0.00029 0.00018 0.0029    0.0037 0.0022                              0.0021  0.0027    0.0016 Kappa "budget"                                kappa        kappa            kappa H (ft) =       460              = 0.0145                          BC= 0.0120 LBC=       0.0113 UBC=       0.0126 16
 
Comparison of Duke and NRC SAFs from Base Profiles and EPRI soil relations relations.
HB_Robinson SAF 4 50 4.50 M1P 4.00                                    M1P+sig M1P-sig Base prof, EPRI, bed sig=0.2 3.50                                     EPRI+sig EPRI i EPRI-sig 3.00 2.50 A
Amplification n
2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.1    1                    10                            100 Frequency, Hz 17
 
HB Robinson GMRS 1.60 GMRS Duke 1.40 SSE appl 1.20 NRC GMRS 1.00 0.80 SA (g)
S        0 60 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 01 0.1                  1                  10  100 Frequency, Hz 18
 
Primary Differences
* Impact of licensees licensee s update of CEUS-SSC CEUS SSC
* Thickness of Alluvium layer
* NRC Vs profiles based on regional measurements of Middendorf formation
* Large epistemic uncertainty in Licensees Licensee s Vs profiles
  - Basis for P3 shear wave velocities?
* Use of EPRI Rock (M3) for Lower Base Case Velocity Profile (P2) 19
 
References
* H. B. Robinson Updated FSAR.
* URS,, 2012.
* Assessment of Seismic Hazard at 34 U.S, Nuclear Plant Sites. EPRI Final Report, August 2008. 1016736.
* Seismic EEvaluation al ation G Guidance.
idance Screening Screening, Prioriti Prioritization ation and Implementation Details (SPID) for the Resolution of Fukushima Near-Term Task Force Recommendation 2.1: Seismic. 2013 T h i lR Technical  Report.
t
* USGS OFR 03-043. Odum J.K. et al., Near-Surface S-wave and P-wave Velocities of Primary Geological Formations on the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain of South Carolina, USA . 2003.
* GEOTECHNICAL EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING. SCDOT Geotechnical Design Manual. 2008 20}}

Latest revision as of 06:26, 5 December 2019

June 30 NRC Slides for Public Meeting with Duke - NTTF 2.1 - Seismic Reevaluation - GMRS
ML14181A078
Person / Time
Site: Robinson Duke Energy icon.png
Issue date: 06/30/2014
From: Michael Balazik
Japan Lessons-Learned Division
To:
Balazik M, NRR/JLD, 415-2856
References
Download: ML14181A078 (20)


Text

Near-term Task Force Recommendation 2 2.1 1 Seismic Hazard Evaluation Duke Energygy June 30, 2014

References for Meeting

  • M ti FFeedback Meeting db k FForm ((requestt ffrom mfb@nrc.gov) fb@ )
  • May 9, 2014, NRC letter regarding Seismic Screening and Prioritization Results for central and eastern US Licensees (ML14111A147)
  • May 21, 2014, NRC memo providing preliminary staff ground motion response spectra for central and eastern Licensees (ML14136A126)
  • Meeting Summary to be issued within 30-day

Meeting Introduction

Purpose:

support information exchange and begin dialog to have common understanding d di off the h causes off the h primary i diff differences between the preliminary NRC and licensee seismic hazard results

Background:

NRC and licensee seismic hazard require resolution to support a final seismic screening decision and to support related follow-on submittals Outcomes:

  • Begin NRC and licensee resolution to support regulatory decisions and development of seismic risk evaluations, as appropriate
  • Establish resolution path, including timelines and identification of potential information needs

Look-ahead:

Potentiall Next Steps

  • NRC will consider the meeting information
  • Potential paths:

- Licensee Li submits b it supplemental l t l iinformation f ti bbased d

on public meeting dialog

- NRC staff issues a request for information

- Licensee sends a revision or supplement to the seismic hazard report

  • NRC completes screening review and issues th fi the finall screening i d determination t i ti lletter tt

R 2.1-Seismic Hazard Analysis H.B. Robinson NPP Vladimir Graizer Sarah Tabatabai June 30, 2014 5

6 HB Robinson GMRS 1 60 1.60 GMRS Duke 1.40 SSE appl 1.20 NRC GMRS 1.00 NRC Preliminary 0.80 SA (g)

S 0.60 0.40 0 20 0.20 0.00 0.1 1 10 100 Freq enc Hz Frequency, H Preliminary run was performed without kappa. 7

Primary Differences

  • Impact of licensees licensee s revision of CEUS-SSC CEUS SSC
  • Thickness of Alluvium layer
  • NRC Vs profiles based on regional measurements of Middendorf formation
  • Large epistemic uncertainty in Licensees Licensee s Vs profiles

- Basis for P3 shear wave velocities?

  • Use of EPRI Rock (M3) for Lower Base Case Velocity Profile (P2) 8

Revision of Source Model

  • 50.54(f) letter specified use of CEUS-SSC model without need for site specific geologic investigations
  • Section 2.2 of SPID states that use of CEUS-SSC as published is appropriate appropriate
  • CEUS-SSC conducted as Level 3 SSHAC process and endorsed by NRC
  • Per NUREG-2117 update of SSHAC 3 would need to be performed as formal SSHAC process and require subsequent NRC review
  • NRC unable to evaluate impact p of update p without rock hazard curves for Robinson 9

Site Location: Southwest shore of Lake Robinson in northwest Darlington County, South Carolina 10

Comparison of Site Response Profiles H.B. Robinson Control Point Depth to Shear-Wave G/Gmax and Damping Velocity Reference Licensee NRC Staff Licensee NRC Staff Licensee NRC Staff Ground Ground 460 ft 460 ft Alluvium Alluvium (EPRI Surface; surface (randomiz (randomiz (M1=EPRI Soil, Soil and above above ed +-93 ed with M2=Peninsular, Peninsular; equally

1) 56 ft 1) 30 ft ft) Sig=0.2) M3=EPRI Soil; weighted);

Alluvium, Alluvium, equally Middendorf Fm

2) 404 ft 2) 430 ft weighted); (EPRI Soil, and Middendorf Middendorf Middendorf Fm Peninsular; equally Fm., Fm., (M1=EPRI Soil, weighted);
3) Pre- 3) Pre- M2=Peninsular, Total kappa =

Cambrian Cambrian M3=EPRI Rock; 0.0145 s.

crystalline crystalline equally Hard rock kappa =

rock rock weighted); 0.006 s Hard rock kappa

= 0.006 s

  • Control point defined at the top of alluvium FSAR Appendix 2.5E, letter from Dr. Housner)
  • Licensee considered the following modifications from MACTEC (URS, 2012):

Alluvial All i l llayer iis 56 ft instead i t d off 30 ft (as

( specified ifi d iin th the FSAR) 11

Vs Profile Development

  • Section 2.5.4.1 (p (page g 2.5.4-1)) of UFSAR states:

These sediments are comprised of about 30 ft of surface alluvium over 430 ft of Middendorf formation formation

  • Figure 2.5.1-2 of UFSAR also has 30 ft for alluvium layer and Vs=3600 ft/sec for the Middendorf formation
  • Odum et al., 2003 estimates Vs=2840 ft/sec at 89 ft depth for Middendorf
  • NRC assumed a factor of 1.29 for epistemic uncertaintyy to developp base case pprofiles 12

Site Profile from FSAR Table 1. S-wave velocities at H. B. Robinson NPP (from UFSAR Figure 2.5.1-2).

Assigned Unit Depth to Geologic S-wave Thickness weight Comment Bottom Formation velocity (ft) (pcf)

((ft)) ((ft/s))

Moderately compact 30 30 Alluvium alluvial sands and 750 125 gravels. Developed g p from the Middendorf Fm.

Sands (compact), silty Middendorf and sandy clay (firm to 460 430 3600 130 Formation hard),) sandstone and siltstone.

Piedmont Crystalline 10000 170 Basement 13

Information from other sites: Shear-Wave Velocity (ft/sec) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 SCDOT Geotechnical Design 0 Manual (2008): Alluvium Dense sand and gravel Vs= 650 to 1,350 ft/s 100 200 Depth Below w Control Poin nt (ft)

Tuscaloosa Fm. Vs=2840 Middendorf Fm.

ft/s at 89 ft (Odum et al., (Tuscaloosa Fm.)

2003) 300 400 NRC-BC 500 NRC-LBC NRC-UBC Licensee-BC Licensee-LBC Licensee-UBC 14 600

Kappa Development

  • NRC used Campbell Campbellss eqn to estimate the total site kappa

- Using thickness of 460 ft gives kappa value of 8 8.5 5

msec for soil

- Total site kappa is 14 14.5 5 msec

- Effective kappa is about 11 msec (for middle base case profile) 15

Kappa check Small Small Thickness Strain Kappa Kappa Kappa Strain Kappa Kappa Depth (ft) (ft) BC Vs LBC Vs UBC Vs G2/D2 Damping Q BC LBC UBC G2/D2 Damping Q Kappa BC LBC UBC 20.00 20.00 1000 774 1292 E soil 0-20 1.429 34.99 0.0006 0.0007 0.0004 Pen 0-50 1.06 47.17 0.00042 0.00055 0.00033 30.00 10.00 1000 774 1292 E soil 20-50 1.142 43.78 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 Pen 0-50 1.06 47.17 0.00021 0.00027 0.00016 50.00 20.00 3499 2708 4521 E soil 20-50 1.142 43.78 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 Pen 0-50 1.06 47.17 0.00012 0.00016 0.00009 70.00 20.00 3509 2715 4534 E soil 50-120 1 50.00 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00007 0.00009 0.00005 90.00 20.00 3519 2723 4547 E soil 50-120 1 50.00 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00007 0.00009 0.00005 110.00 20.00 3529 2731 4560 E soil 50-120 1 50.00 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00007 0.00009 0.00005 120.00 10.00 3541 2741 4576 E soil 50-120 1 50.00 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00003 0.00004 0.00003 140.00 20.00 3541 2741 4576 E soil 120-250 0.857 58.34 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00007 0.00009 0.00005 190.00 50.00 3561 2756 4602 E soil 120-250 0.857 58.34 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00017 0.00022 0.00013 240.00 50.00 3586 2775 4634 E soil 120-250 0.857 58.34 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00017 0.00022 0.00013 250.00 10.00 3611 2795 4666 E soil 120-250 0.857 58.34 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00003 0.00004 0.00003 290.00 40.00 3611 2795 4666 E soil 250-500 0.786 63.61 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00013 0.00017 0.00010 340.00 50.00 3636 2814 4699 E soil 250-500 0.786 63.61 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00017 0.00021 0.00013 390.00 50.00 3661 2833 4731 E soil 250-500 0.786 63.61 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00016 0.00021 0.00013 460.00 70.00 3691 2857 4770 E soil 250-500 0.786 63.61 0.0003 0.0004 0.0002 Pen 50-500 0.6 83.33 0.00023 0.00029 0.00018 0.0029 0.0037 0.0022 0.0021 0.0027 0.0016 Kappa "budget" kappa kappa kappa H (ft) = 460 = 0.0145 BC= 0.0120 LBC= 0.0113 UBC= 0.0126 16

Comparison of Duke and NRC SAFs from Base Profiles and EPRI soil relations relations.

HB_Robinson SAF 4 50 4.50 M1P 4.00 M1P+sig M1P-sig Base prof, EPRI, bed sig=0.2 3.50 EPRI+sig EPRI i EPRI-sig 3.00 2.50 A

Amplification n

2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.1 1 10 100 Frequency, Hz 17

HB Robinson GMRS 1.60 GMRS Duke 1.40 SSE appl 1.20 NRC GMRS 1.00 0.80 SA (g)

S 0 60 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 01 0.1 1 10 100 Frequency, Hz 18

Primary Differences

  • Impact of licensees licensee s update of CEUS-SSC CEUS SSC
  • Thickness of Alluvium layer
  • NRC Vs profiles based on regional measurements of Middendorf formation
  • Large epistemic uncertainty in Licensees Licensee s Vs profiles

- Basis for P3 shear wave velocities?

  • Use of EPRI Rock (M3) for Lower Base Case Velocity Profile (P2) 19

References

  • H. B. Robinson Updated FSAR.
  • URS,, 2012.
  • Assessment of Seismic Hazard at 34 U.S, Nuclear Plant Sites. EPRI Final Report, August 2008. 1016736.
  • Seismic EEvaluation al ation G Guidance.

idance Screening Screening, Prioriti Prioritization ation and Implementation Details (SPID) for the Resolution of Fukushima Near-Term Task Force Recommendation 2.1: Seismic. 2013 T h i lR Technical Report.

t

  • USGS OFR 03-043. Odum J.K. et al., Near-Surface S-wave and P-wave Velocities of Primary Geological Formations on the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain of South Carolina, USA . 2003.
  • GEOTECHNICAL EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING. SCDOT Geotechnical Design Manual. 2008 20