ML20235D883

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Applicant Exhibit A-10,consisting of Excerpt of Paper Entitled, Spatial Analysis of Evacuation Intentions: Implications for Radiological Emergency Response Planning
ML20235D883
Person / Time
Site: Shoreham File:Long Island Lighting Company icon.png
Issue date: 07/08/1987
From: Jerrica Johnson, Zeigler D
CALIFORNIA, UNIV. OF, LOS ANGELES, CA, OLD DOMINION UNIV., NORFOLK, VA
To:
References
OL-3-A-010, OL-3-A-10, NUDOCS 8709250393
Download: ML20235D883 (5)
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Text

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                                                                                            '87 SEP 17 - All':45 A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION INTENTIONS: IMPLI.C/LTIONS 600 FOR RADIOLOGICAL EMERGINCY RESPONSE PLANNING                          .:
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James H. Johnson, Jr. i University of California, Los Angeles , J Los Angeles, CA. 90024 Donald J. Zeigler. Old Dominion University 

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Norfolk, VA. 23058 l' l a:' gi 

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                                                                                                    <f Do not cite or quote without permission from the'~autho:J.                                [

Forthcoming in Nuclear Pover: Assessi$g 'and Managina Hazardous. f Technology, edited by Martin J. Pasqualetti and K. David Pi,javka, j Boulder, Colorados Westview Press. /' ., E l~ . . [5#'"!!!R87,8;gg,, . s 0319 PDR . L

l - 7 l l I therefore be extended to conform with the behavioral intentions of the I l pvpulation. Geographic Extent of Spontaneous Evacuation q j The evacuation intentf.ons were found to vary by distance and with direction of the residents' homes from the SNPS. Insofar as planning for radiological emergencies is concerned these spatial correlates of evacuation have been largely ignored. 

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We therefore discuss each in 

                                - r.; 1                                              i considerable detail here, whenever possible comparing intended spatial             l l

behavior at Shoreham with actual evacuation behavior at TMI. d j 1 Evacuation as'a Distance Decav Phencuenen. One of the few undeniably i important variables in explaining the pattern of evacuation response is distance from a threatening nuclear reactor. Families living closer to  ! the hazard agent are more likely to evacuate than families living farther away (Figure 2). Within 10 niles of the Shoreham plant, how-ever, there was little or no distance decay in the proportion of the population indicating they would evacuate. In this respect, the results of the Shoreham survey parallel the results of our Three Mile island survey which charted actual rather than hypothetical evacuation rates. In response to the first scenario in the Shoreham survey, approxi-cately 40 percent of the sampled fa=111es in both the 5 cile and 6-10 mile zones indicated they would evacuate. In response to the second ',- scenario, 57 percent of the respondents within 5 m11es and 52 percent within 6-10 miles of the plant said they would evacuate. In response to the third scenario three 78 percent of the population within 10 miles of the Shoreham site would evacuate. we

3 8 t Beyond'the 10 eile zona, the distance decay curva does not register a marked discontinuity until approximately 25 niles frem the plant This. i finding suggests that an expanded evacuation planning zone would more-precisely approximate the zone of behavioral intentions to evacuate. By l extending the evacuation planning region, however, the perceived zone of. r. l q danger is also likely to increase, thus.further encouraging an expansion. ) of the zone of spontaneous evacuation. A comparison of the results of the Shoreham survey results with the 

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findings of the Three Mile Island evacuation behavior (Flynn, '1979) is I presented in Figure 3. Expected evacuation rates in the -event of a 

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Three Mile island type accident at Shoreham are compared'vich actual __. evncuation rates at Three Mile Island. Within ten miles of the respec-tive power plants, the results are amazingly sun 11ar and seem to indi . j cace that, while the Shoreham survey solicited only behavioral.inten- 

                                                                                                                                                                        -i cions to evacuate, these intentions v11.1 most likely occur in the event                                                                      i of a real' accident.                                                      Beyond can miles, owever, the disparity between                     l the Shoreham intended evacuation rate and the actual Three Mile Island evacuation rate increases with distance (Figure 3).                                                          Several factors may            '

account ter the anticipated higher evacuation rate at Shoreham: (1) the experiences and images of the Three Mile Island accident; (2) the long standing controversy over the Shoreham plant; (3) a basic distrust of the Long Island Lighting Company which has been-brewing for years; and 

                           .(4) the fear of being trapped on Long Island,'(a cul de sac,) in the'                                                              -

event that a more extensive evacuation is ordered. Evacuation as a Directional Phenomenon. On Long island there is.likely to be a directional bias in the pattern of evacuation in the event of an accident at the Shoreham plant. As the data in Figure 4 indicate, een, e ' *em.e e .e

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