ML20235D839
| ML20235D839 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Shoreham File:Long Island Lighting Company icon.png |
| Issue date: | 07/29/1987 |
| From: | Urbanik T NRC COMMISSION (OCM), TEXAS A&M UNIV., COLLEGE STATION, TX |
| To: | |
| References | |
| OL-3-S-003, OL-3-S-3, NUDOCS 8709250374 | |
| Download: ML20235D839 (14) | |
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGUT.ATORY COMMISSION '87 SEP 17 A8 :16 BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOhRD In the Matter of )
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LONG ISLAND LIGHTING COMPANY ) Docket No. 50-322-OL-3
) (Emergency Planning)
(Shoreham Nuclear Power Station, )
l Unit 1) )
I l TESTIMONY OF DR. TI!OMAS URBANIK II ON BEHALF OF THE NRC STAFF ON CAPACITY ANALYSIS IN THE VICIMITY OF RECEPTION CENTERS l Q1. State your name and occupation. l A 1. My name is Thomas Urbanik 11. I am an Associate Research Engineer associated with the Texas Transportation Institute of the Texas A&M University System, College Station, Texas.
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- 02. Have you prepared a statement of your professional qualifications?
A2. Yes. A statement of my professional qualifications is attached to this testimony.
Q3. In what capacity are you testifying in this proceeding? {
AS. I am testifying on behalf of the NRC staff, for which I serve sa
. g consultant through the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories t Battelle is responsible under contract to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for reviewing evacuation time estimates for nuclear facilities and related emergency planning issues. l
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. Briefly summarize your. experience ~ with ' emergency planning for -
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nuclear facilities.
A4. I; was principal author of NUREG/CR-1745, " Analysis of ' ,
1' Techniques for . . Estimating ' Evacuation Times for - Emergency
-a Planning Zones" (November 1980), which described the limitations of. several methodologies and some alternatives - for determining- !
.. evacuation time estimates. Also, ' I provided l input to ' the ~
development of .the current guidance for evacuation' time estimate studies which appears in Appendix 4 to NUREG-9654, Revision'1; .
" Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans for Preparedness - in Support ' of . Nuclear . Power -
l l Plants" (NUREG-0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev.1, November 1980). ~ In .lj addition , I reviewed for the . NRC - the initial evacuation time j
estimate submittels of approximately .52.. operating and near term i
nuclear facilities against -the ' guidance of NUREG-0654 / FEMA-REP-1, Revision 0, the results - of which are . published in NUR EG / C R-1856. I am a coauthor of the CLEAR computer model which is published in NUREG/CR-2054. I also. was a coauthor of l
l l an independent assessment of the Seabrook' Nuclear Power Station l Evacuation Times which is published in NUREG/CR-2003. I have ]
i appeared on behalf of the NRC staff at a number of licensing L]
hearings including Shoreham concerning evacuation time estimates.
1 QS. What is the purpose of this testimony?
F A5. The purpose of this testimony is to address the Contention on F
"the adequacy of evacuation routes to the three LILCO facilities t
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( proposed as reception centers, including the effects of traffic congestion on the way to and in the vicinity of the facilities, and LILCO's Revision 8 proposal to employ traffic guides on Nassau County roadways."
A6. What is the relevant guidance concerning the contention?
A 6. There is no specific guidance concerning traffic control at reception centers.
s Q7. What was the scope of your review of Long Island Lighting Company's evaluation of the adequacy of evacuation routes to reception centers for Evacuees from the Shoreham Emergency Planning Zone?
A7. I have reviewed the report prepared for LILCO entitled " Capacity Analysis of Highways in the Vicinity of Reception Centers for Evacuees from within the Shoreham Station Emergency Planning Zone" (KLD TR-192) prepared by KLD Associates. Inc.,
Huntington Station , N.Y., September 26, 1986. I have also reviewed another report prepared by KLD Associates, Inc. for LILCO entitled "Canacity Analysis on Approach Routes to the SNPS Reception Centers" (KLD TR-201) , dated March 28, 1987.
KLD TR-192 is an expansion and update of KLD TR-102. I have also reviewed some hand calculations which were used in preparation of KLD TR-192, and some computer disks which contained the data used in the capacity analysis in KLD TR-201.
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. l Q8. What is your professional opinion concerning the adequapy of the j 1
methodology used by KLD Associates, Inc. in the analysis of the adequacy of access to the reception centers.
A8. The analysis follows a very traditional traffic engineering approach of estimating traffic demand and capacity in order to J
i ascertain the magnitude of potential problems. The analysis uses l
standard traffic engineering analysis procedures and the approach 3 meets a simple test of reasonableness. l
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- 09. What is the appropriate planning basis for the amount of traffic to be accommodated at reception centers and what were the traffic ;
numbers used in KLD TR-201?
A9. It is my understanding that FEMA has suggested that 20 percent of the evacuees would be the appropriate planning basis for reception centers. The KLD TR-201 study used 30% of the EPZ population as evacuation traffic to the reception centers cad 100%
background (i.e. , traffic normally using the roadways during the time periods being evaluated) in evaluating the capability of reception centers and nearby roadways.
Q10. Is the use of 100% background traffic appropriate?
A10. Yes. Analysis of traffic conditions using 100% background traffic indicates intersections where the addition of evacuation traffic to normal background traffic causes traffic congestion. Appropriate 1
traffic control plans, such as those in KLD TR-192, can then be ,
developed to determine whether adequate capacity can be achieved 1
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consistent - with the previously ' described. planning basis. I also '
concur with J the recommendation in KLD - TR-201 that additional attention be given to designing control tactics beyond those in .
KLD TB-102. i Q11. flhat .would be - the effect of any backup traffic at the reception centers on the evacusting traffic from the 10 mile EPZ? ,
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. All . There would be no effect on the evacuating EPZ traffic because of I the distance from the 10 mile EPZ to the reception centers.
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l . 8 Q12. Ib evacuation shadow" traffic an issue relative to reception centers? ,
.i A12. No. -Evacuation shadow traffic was 'not: considered separately in the KLD analysis. The issue of evacuation shadow traffic in general has been previously considered as a part ' of the evacuation time estimate study. The issue at the reception centers is different from evacuation time estimate studies in general. Reception center traffic is a concern because a portion of the evscuating traffic is being focused on a few points. The key issues are the appropriate number of - persons' to be processed, the background taffic, the capacity of . reception centers, and the capacity of . nearby streets. Traffic congestion.
associated with the general evacuation,. including " shadow" traffic has already been evaluated as a part of the evacuation time estimate study.
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( Q13. What is the 1985.HiPhway Capacity Manual and how appropriate is .
l it to the analysis performed? j
'i A13. The Highway Capacity Manual is the standard traffic engineering. I reference for computing highway capacity. Use of the Highway l
Capacity Manual is appropriate for calculating capacities of the roadways. Roadway capacity is simply the maximum number of ;
vehicles that have a reasonable expectation of passing over a given section of roadway, typically expressed as vehicles per lane per hour.
Q14. Is it appropriate to consider traffic growth in the analysis of l
reception center traffic? ]
A14. No. Planning for nuclear power plants is an . ongoing process.
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The current plan should be developed on the . best available current data, if conditions change substantially in the future, it would then be appropriate to revise the analysis and plans if necessary.
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- Q15. IIas reception center processing time been considered in the KLD l
l cnalysis of reception centers.
1 A 15. Yes. KLD TR-201 indicates that reception center processing time !
l is the controlling factor in the analysis.
Q16. What is your conclusion regarding the adequacy of evacuation routes to the three LILCO facilities proposed as reception centers, including the effects of traffic congestion on the way to l I
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( and in the vicinity of the facilities, and LILCO's Rev. 8 proposal -
to employ traffic guides on Nassau County roadways? )
l A16. Based on my analyses of the information presented for my review, I find nothing with respect to the adequacy of evacuation routes
.l to the three reception ' centers, including the effects of traffic j I
congestion on the way to and in the vicinity of the facilities, which would preclude processing 30 percent of the Shoreham EPZ
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1 population in accordance with NRC/ FEMA guidance, provided that
- traffic control measures are . implemented at critical locations. 1 I
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l CURRICULUM VITAE URBANIK II. Th,omas P.E., Ph.D. OFFICE PHONE: 409/845-1535~
HOME ADDRESS: 12 Post Oak Bend Rd. . HOME PHONE: 409/690-6795 t College Station, Texas 77840 ;
Birthdate: February 15, 1946 Citizenship: U.S. -
S.S. No.: 079-36-0185 Marital Status: Married, 2 Sons.
1 PROFESSIONAL INTERESTS: Traffic Engineering Transportation Planning
, Evacuation Planning Highway Design / Safety Public Transportation EDUCATION: j Ph.D., Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University,1982 M.S., Transportation Engineering, Purdue University,1971 B.S., Civil Engineering Syracuse University, 1969 B.S., Forest Engineering, New York State College of' Environmental Science and Forestry, 1968 L
( PROFESSIONAL LICENSES:
Registered Professional Engineer, Michigan No. 22008 Registered Professional Engineer Texas No. 42384 EXPERIENCE:
1982-1986
- Lecturer -
Department of Civil Engineering-Civil Systems Group Texas A&M University College Station, Texas 77843-3136 Undergraduate instruction in transportation engineering and planning, traffic engineering, and highway design.
Program Manager - Transport Operations Texas Transportation Institute Texas A&M University-College Station Texas 77843-3135 Duties and responsibilities are to provide specific direction 'to program in its conduct of transportation research projects for fed-( eral, state, and local transportation agencies.
r r The range of transportation projects include: . traffic engineering, L! transportation planning, highway safety, public transportation, and transportation systems management.
Management responsibilities are to identify and pursue research opportunities, locate and recommend staff, monitor research i activities to meet budget and' project objectives, develop overall {
program funding, provide an annual staff review (15 personnel),
supervise preparation of proposals, develop writing and communica- <
tion skills of the program staff, review and allocate work, coor- :
dinate equipment and'staf fing needs, recommend and approve perti- ]
nent expenditures for annual budget of approximately $600,000. -1 l
l 1976-1982 Assistant Research Engineer Conducted research, prepared proposals, and provided project super- 1 vision on research activities. Responsible for final report preparation and presentation. Research areas included traffic engineering, transportation planning, public transportation and evaluation planning.
1972-1976
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Traffic Engineer City of Ann Arbor Department of Streets, Traffic and Parking Ann Arbor, Michigan 1 i Responsible to Director of Streets, Traffic and Parking Ann Arbor, l Michigan. Responsible supervisory and professional traffic engi-neering work in directing the traffic engineering function of the department. Work involved responsibility for the application, of professional engineering skill and knowledge to difficult traffic ;
engineering problems in traffic regulation and control, street use,
, street lighting, geometrics, parking, school safety, curb cuts, and i related traffic engineering activities. Was directly responsible for the supervision of the traffic signal and traffic sign mainte- ;
nance personnel, 1971-1972 Transportation Planning Engineer City of Ann Arbor Traffic Engineering and Transportation Department '
Ann Arbor, Michigan' ,
Responsible to Director of Traffic Engineering and Transportation,
( Ann Arbor, Michigan. Reviewed transportation aspects _ of all plans I
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j for development in .the city._ Staff'memb'er to the Ann Arbor Trans-
[ '; ' portation Authority responsible for : budget and union negotiations..
Staff Coordinator for the planning, design, implement'ation,: and op--
eration of the. Dial-A-Ride demand-responsive demonstration project.'
'1970-1971 l . Research Assistant Joint Highway Research Project
' Purdue University .
West Lafayette, Indiana Conducted research con'cerning high-way related grade crossings..
Designed attitudinal questionnaire concerning public transportation i for a home interview survey in Lafayette, Indiana. Also analyzed j survey results for inclusion'in a report on public' tran portation ' )
in. La fayette. - Indiana i i
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SOCIETY MEMBERSHIP:
Transportation Research Board Institute of Transportation Engineers American Society of Civil Engineers _
American Society for Engineering Education .
( HONOR SOCIETIES Chi Epsilon CURRENT COMMITTEE MEMBERSHIP _
Chairman, Institute of Traffic Engineers, Texas Section, Committee on Continuing Education Member, Transportation Research' Board, Committee on Intercity Bus Transportation i
PUBLIC SERVICE Member, We11 born Community Center Board of Directors i
CONTINUING EDUCATION / PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT ,
Association of 011 Pipelines, Educators Tour, July 1984 The University of Michigan, Bureau of Industrial Relations, Graduate
~ School of Business Administration, Principles of Effective Supervisory-Management .
U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Digit-(. al Computer-Urban Traffic Control / Bus Priority System (UTCS/ BPS)
Course. '
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Michigan Department of Civil Service, Principles of Public Sector Labor
( Relations. {
1 CURRENT RESEARCH l
" Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Ranking New Interchanges and Highway l Railroad Grade Separations", Texas State Department of Highways and {
Public Transportation (
" Automated Transit Ridership Data Collection", Texas State Department of !
Highways and Peblic Transportation.
" Computerized Dispatch Aids for Small Public Transportation Providers",
Texas State Department of Highways and Public Transportation.
" Safety and Operational Evaluation of Shoulders on Urban Freeways," ,
Texas State Department of Highways and Public Transportation. l
" Traffic Engineering / Transportation Planning Relative to Evacuation-Time Estimates", Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories.
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" Evaluation of Transportation Analysis Techniques Used for Estimating Evacuation Timer at Nuclear Power Plant Sites", Battelle Pacific Northwest Labo'ratories, q
l PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS Traffic Engineering Understanding Forced Flow, ITE Journal, Institute of Transportation
( Engineers, Washington, D.C., October 1986.
Safety and Operational Evaluation of Shoulders on Urban Freeways. With Carlos R. Bonilla Texas State Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Research Report Number 395-1, Austin, Texas, August l 1986.
J l The Effectiveness of Using Freeway Shoulders for Traffic, With Wes Lum, j District 6-District 7 Joint Annual Meeting, Institute of Transportation Engineers Vancouver, B.C., Canada, July 1986.
Effects of Shoulder Reductions on Highway Safety, With Wes Lum, American Society of Civil Engineers, Specialty Conference on Effectiveness of Highway Safety Improvements, Nashville, Tennessee, March 1986.
Speed / Volume Relationships on Texas Highways. State Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Research Report 327-2F, Austin, Texas, October 1983.
j Priority Treatment of Buses at Tra f fi c Signals. Transportation l Engineering, November 1977.
Priority Treatment of High-Occupancy Vehicles on Arterial Streets. l State Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Report 205-5, j 1977. l Evaluation of Alternative Concepts for Priority Use of Urban Freeways in Texas. State Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Report 205-1, 1977.
Driver Information Systems for Highway-Railway Grade Crossings, with K.W. Heathington, Highway Research Record Number 414, 1972. '
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Evacuation Planning 1
Transportation Analysis for Evacuation: c State-of-the-Art ITE Journal, !
Institute of Transportation Engineers... Washington D.C., March 1986. 1 An' Independent Assessment of Evacuation Times For a Peak Population- *]
Scenario in the Emergency. Planning Zone of-the' Seabrook Nuclear Power Station, . with others, U.S. . Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-2903, 1982.
J
-1 CLEAR (Calculates Logical Evacuation' And Response). A Generic Transpor-tation Network Model for the Calculation of Evacuation' Times Esti-mates, with others', U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commis-sion, NUREG/CR -
2504 October 1981.
Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation. Times for Emergency Planning Zones, with others, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission I NUREG/ CR-1745, 1980. {
Analysis of Evaucation Times Around 52. Nuclear Power Plant Sites, with 1 i others, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CR-1856 Volume- 1, i
1980.
Texas Hurricane Evacuation Study, The Coastal and Marine' Council,1978.
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Public Transportation l
l Analysis of. Rural Public Transportation in Texas, with others, State t
Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Technical Report 1069-1F, August 1982.
Intercity Bus Riders in Texas, Transportation.Research Record 887, 196 o
( The Intercity Bus Industry in the U.S. and . Texas, with others Sta h Department' of Highways and Public Transportation. Technical Report l 0965-1F,1981. _ Bryan-College Station Energy Contingency Study',
l' Metropolitan Planning Organization of Bryan-College Station,1980. !
Bryan-College Station Transit Improvement Plan,~ with others, Metro-
' politan Planning Organization,1979.
Ann Arbor Dial-A-Ride Project Final Report. Ann Arbor Transportation Authori ty, .1973.
Ann Arbor Dial-A-Ride Operations. Highway Research Board Special Report. ;
136, 1973.
l The Greater Lafayette Area Bus Transit Study, with others, Joint Highway !
Research Project Purdue University,1971.
l Elderly and Handicapped Transportation-l Guidelines for Evaluation of Human Services Transportation Programs, l with others, State Department of' Highways and Public Transportation, Report 1065-2F,-1981.
l Evaluation of Selected Human Services Transportation Providers, with ,
Diane Bullard, State Department of ' Highways and Pu bl i c - ,
Transportation, 1980.
Cost-Effectiveness of Accessible Fixed-Route Buses in Texas, with Jose Soegard Technical Report 1061-1F,1979. '
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Transportation. of the Elderly and Handicapped in Texas: 'A Casa Study,
[1' with Jose A. .Soegard, State Department of- Highways and Publ ic Transportation. Technical Report 1056-2F,1979.
Total Accessibility Versus Equivalent Mobility.of the Handicapped.
-Institute of Transportation Engineers, Compendium of Technical Papers, '49th Annual, Meeting,1979.
Survey of. Vehicles and Equipment for Elderly and Handicapped Trans-portation. State Department of Highways and Public- Transpor-tation, Technical Report 1056-1, 1978.
Corpus Christi Elderly and Handicapped Transportation Study, with ' R.W.
Holder, City of Corpus Christi. Texas,1978.
PRESENTATIONS Presentation entitled Shoulder Reductions on Urban Freeway,' ASCE
- Specialty Conference, " Shaping the Future of American Highways",? San Diego, CA, April. 15-17,:1985.
Presentes seminar on transportation analysis at Emergency Preparedness Plans and Programs Workshop Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories, Wil l i amsburg, . V A.
Presentation on Evacuation, Transportation, and Traffic Control, National Emergency Training Center . Emergency Management Institute Evacuation Planning and Response Actions Simulation Course.
Emmitsburg, Maryland, July 8-12, 1985.
( EXTENSION:
Texas Engineering Extension Service, Instructor on various courses including basic traffic engineering, geometric design of highways and highway capacity.
University of California at Berkely, Institute of Transportation Studies. Extension Programs, Guest Lecturer, highway capacity . courses presented to California Department of Transportation.
EXPERT WITNESS Presented expert testimony before the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, concerning evacuation times at several nuclear power plant sites including Three-Mile Island, Diablo Canyon. Indian Point, Seabrook and Shoreham.
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