ML20198B677
| ML20198B677 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Harris  |
| Issue date: | 11/04/1985 |
| From: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| To: | |
| References | |
| CON-#485-181 OL, NUDOCS 8511070154 | |
| Download: ML20198B677 (256) | |
Text
OR/GWAL NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION IN THE MATTER OF: DOCKET NO: 50-400 OL CAROLINA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY and NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN MUNICIPAL POWER AGENCY (Shearon Harris Nuclear Power Plant)
EVIDENTIARY HEARING n
v I.OCATION: RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA PAGES: 9356 - 9610 DATE: MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 1985 f y)hhg >f f. hi dv<t rl - j!/) / -// h-TR, C/
i ACE-FEDERAL REPORTERS, INC.
OfficialReporters 444 North Ca itol Street Washington, C. 20001 0511070154 051104 0 (202)347-3700 PDR ADOCK 050 T NAnONw1DE COVERAGE 1
9356 Sim 1-1 1 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
[
2 NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 3
BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD 4
_____________x ,
In the Matter of:
6 7
CAROLINA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY : Docket No. 50-400 OL and NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN :
8
^ ^
9 (Shearon Harris Nuclear Power :
Plant) :
10 11 Galleries E and F 12 Holiday Inn North 2815 North Boulevard
/~ aeg, r ar na
\-}/ 13l.
ja Monday, November 4, 1985 The hearing in the above-entitled matter 15 16 convened at 9:05 a.m., pursuant to notice.
! BEFORE: ..
37 18 JAMES L. KELLEY, ESQ., Chairman Atomic Safety and Licensing Board 39 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 20 JAMES H. CARPENTER, Member 21 Atomic Safety and Licensing Board U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 22 Washington, D.C. 20555 GLENN O. BRIGHT, Member 23 Atomic Safety and Licensing Board
(' 24 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission LM j n.pon.n. inc. Washington, D.C. 20555 l 25 I
1 9357 f)
V APPEARANCES:
2 3 On Behalf of the Applicant:
4 THOMAS A. BAXTER, ESQ.
LISA RIDGWAY, ESQ.
5 Shaw, Pittman, Potts & Trowbridge 1800 M Street, N.W.
6 Washington, D.C.
7 DALE HOLLAR, ESQ.
Associate General Counsel 8 Carolina Power and Light Company P. O. Box 1551 9 Raleigh, North Carolina 27602 On Behalf of the Federal Emergency Management 10l Agency:
11 JOSEPH FLYNN, ESQ.
12I Assistant General Counsel
(-}
N/ 13
-- and --
STEPHEN ROCHLIS, ESQ.
! Regional Counsel for Region IV 141 15 Appearing Pro Se:
16 WELLS EDDLEMAN 806 Parker Street I7 Durham, North Carolina 27701-3131 18 On Behalf of the NRC Staff:
I9 CHARLES A BARTH, ESQ.
JANICE E. MOORE, ESQ.
20 Office of the Executive Legal Director U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 21 -
Washington, D.C. 20555 22 23
/"T 24 Ac rLj negon.n, Inc. * * ****
25
]
9358 SuqW j C_ O N T E_ N T_ S_
O 2 DIRECT CROSS REDIRECT RECROSS BOARD 3 David S. Mileti)
David N. Keast )
4 and )
Alvin H. Joyner) 9366 9378 ,
9561 5
6 Aft'rnoon e Session - Page 9468 l
7 EXHIBITS 8 Identified Received Applicants ' Exhibit Number 46 9369 9372 9
Applicants' Exhibit Number 47 9428 9434 10 11 L A_ Y - I N S, i
12 Testimony of Messrs. Keast, Joyner and Mileti Following Page 9375 14 l
15 16 i i
17 :
)
i 18 i
19 20 21 22 ,
23 O
he#ederst Reporters, Inc.
24 25 l
l l
.- - .- - - ,- - , -. --- _ _ . . . . , , - . . , - . . _ . - - , - . _ . - _ _ _ _ . - - _ . _ - _ - . _ _ _ - . - - , . . . _ . . , _ , - , ~ . , . . _ , . . - _ . - - . , - . _ . .
9359 l-1-Jon Wal i
()
7 (9:06 a.m.)
2 PgQgEEglgg{ l l
3 JUDGE KELLEY: Good morning. We are here this
- I .
. I 4 morning for the commencement of an evidentiary hearing j l
5 on Mr. Eddleman's Contention 57 C.3, having to do with 6 siren efficacy and more broadly nighttime notification i 7 in the PZ. This all in connection of course with the 8 application of Carolina Power and Light for an operating 9! license for its Shearton Harris facility.
10 , I am Judge James Kelley, and I am Chairman of i
11 l this Atomic Safety and Licensing Board. On my left is Judge James Carpenter, and on my right is Judge Glenn Bright.
()
12{
13 ! I would like counsel and other representatives 14 l to introduce themselves for the record, starting with Mr.
i 15 ' Baxter.
16 MR. BAXTER: Appearing on behalf of the Applicants, 17 I I am Thomas A. Baxter, from the firm of Shaw, Pittman, Potts, 18 and Trowbridge.
19 MS. RIDWAY: I am Lisa Ridgway, appearing on 20 behalf of the Applicants, from Shaw, Pittman, Potts, and 21 Trowbridge.
22 MR. HOLLAR: I am Dale Hollar, Associate General ,,
23 Counsel of CP&L on behalf of the Applicants.
('
(_-) 24 MR. FLYNN: I am Joseph Flynn, Assistant General ,
A=-Fewmamo,tm. W. 1 25 Counsel of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
t
l 9360 1-2-JosWnl -
1 MR. ROCHLIS: I am Steven Rochlis, and I am 2 appearing on behalf of the Federal Emergency Management 3 Agency, and I am the Regional Counsel for Region IV.
4 MS. MOORE: Janice E. Moore, Counsel for NRC 5 Staff.
6 MR. EDDLEMAN: I am Wells Eddleman, Intervener, !
i 7 appearing for myself. l l
8 MayIinquireJudge,arewegoingtohaveopeningf i
9 statements?
10 JUDGE KELLEY: We could. That might be in a 11 moment, if not the next order of business, then a next order 1
12 of business.
13 MR. EDDLEMAN: Okay.
14 JUDGE KELLEY: We did want to get into the 1 15 contention right away, and that could include opening 16 statements.
17 We very often have various introd tetory and 18 other matters to turn to when we convene again after 19 having been apart for a while, and I will just mention 20 that we will do what we are prepared to do. We are prepared 21 to give rulings on two groups of pending emergency planning !
1 22 contentions, but with the witnesses here and everything .l 23 else ready, we are going to defer that to some other 24 convenient point later on today or tomorrow.
Ass sees,e case,w,i, ine.
25 And let me ask counsel and Mr. Eddleman, are there t
l 1-3-Joe.Wal 9361 l
1 other matters that you feel that need to be brought up now, 2 or can we go first to brief opening statements by those 3 who wish to give them, followed by the calling of the j 4 witnesses.
5 Are there anything else that needs to be spoken 4 to now?
7 MS. RIDGWAY: Nothing for Applicants, Your Honor.
3 JUDGE KELLEY: I might mention, I think you l 9 substituted a couple of pages. I thought I would just 10 mention that.
11 i MS. RIDGWAY: Yes, Your Honor. We have handed l
out, for the convenience of the parties, two substitution O 12 '!
13 l pages for the testimony, and we will be explaining what 14 those corrections are when the witnesses take the stand.
15 l JUDGE KELLEY: Thank you. Mr. Rochlis, anything i
16 l else?
I 17 MR. ROCKLIS: We have handed out one page of 16 substitute testiomony, Page 13 of Mr. Carter's testimony, i 19 as well as there will be a few minor pen and ink changes 20 to the the others.
21 Nothing else for Staff or FEMA. I 22 JUDGE KELLEY: Mr. Eddleman, anything other than .
23 opening? l 74 MR. EDDLEMENs Yes, sir, I am going to have W Reportert,Inc.
i .25 another matter, i
1-4-Jo W21. 9362 I r3 1 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay, go ahead. f N.) i 2 MR. EDDLEMAN: Over the weekend, I received a 3 strange tip, let me say. The person who gave it to me 4 would not identify themselves, but they gave detailed 5 information concerning what they allege to be a strong 6 disagreement between Dr. Basseouni, who was CP&L's consultant, 7 and in fact acted on summary disposition on this issue, 8: and had a lot to do with designing the siren system at i
9 Shearon Harris.
I 10 Between Dr. Basseouni's position and the position
\
II of Carolina Power and Light, and the position taken by FEMA 12 3
and the Staff in this proceeding, I contacted Dr. Basseouni
('- ) ,
this morning, and he informs me that his contract with CP&L 13 l 14 l has expired, and that he can't believe some of the things
- l 15 , that were said in testimony. That if he were subpoenaed 16 ' he would do his duty and tell the truth to the highest i
17 [ standards.
18 Therefore, I am going to move on that basis that i
19 ! the Board either subpoena him as a Board witness, or grant 23 a subpoena for him to appear as my witness.
21 JUDGE KELLEY: Shall vo go ahead and speak to that 22 right now, or do you want to discuss the point later? Let .
23 me just ask the other counsel.
p
) 24 Mr. Baxter?
Am.Federas floco,te,s, Inc.
25 MR. BAXTER: Mr. Chairman, this is news to us. I I
L-5-Jo:Wal 9363 l 1
I l
I
(,,) I think we would prefer at le2st some opportunity to confer, l
i :
2r and perhaps if it is not that crucial that it be done right '
l i
3 now, we would prefer talking about it after the first break.
4 JUDGE KELLEY: Mr. Rochlis?
5 MR. ROCHLIS: I would concur with that. I would ,
}
6 like we would need some opportunity to confer.
7 JUDGE KELLEY: Why don't we hear from all three 3! at least after the first . break further on the point.
9 MR. EDDLEMAN: That is fine, J:dge. Let me.. also 10 say for the record that I passed the information I received II along to the Attorney General's Of fice, and I believe a
(^] 12 ; representative of the Attorney General has been in contact t'
13 i with Mr. Basseouni also, i
Id ;
JUDGE KELLEY: Okay.
15 ] MR. EDDLEMAN: Dr. Bas 9eouni.
.l 16 l JUDGE KELLEY: Right. Do you have an opening 17 { statement that you want to make?
I IB ' MR. EDDLEMAN: Do you want me to go first.
19 JUDGE KELLEY: What has our sequence been, 20 ! gentle. nan? Frankly, I don't remember. Is there a preference?
21 Ms. Ridgway, do you have an opening statement?
l 22 MS, RIDGWAY: Applicant's have no opening 23 statements. However, we may wish to reserve some time to
\ )
24 l i briefly reply.
Ace resers neponers. Inc. l 25 l JUDGE KELLEY: Yes. Mr. Rochlis?
l 1-6-JoeWm1 9364
{) 1 MR. ROCHLIS: No opening statement for FEMA.
2 JUDGE KELLEY: Mr. Eddleman?
3 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judges, members of the public, 4 I think one of the more serious issues having to do with 5 the emergency planning for the Shearon Harris plant is 6 whether the public can really be alerted in the event of I
7 an accident, and this particular attention is about whether e people can be woken up when they are sleeping indoors between 9 about 1:00 a.m., and 6:00 a.m. !
l 10 And in conditions like that, when they might not i 11 be able to hear the sirens.
12 ! The evidence that is submitted by CP&L and by C:)
, 13 f the Federal Emergency Management Agency indicates that there ,
14 is about thirty percent of the people who would not be woken i u
15 up by this system within fif teen minutes.
16 They then go through a great dance of additional 17 factors which they claim will increase the percentage, but 18 it doesn't get close to virtually all the people who need to '
19 be woken up by the standards in according to the Board's 20 l order on this contention.
I 21 Now, I don't know exactity what Dr. Basseouni is ;
i 22 going to be able to add to this. He indicated to me that .i i
23 he had some strong disagreements with parts of the testimony
(
O 24 of both the parties here. !'
w>nems now . sme.
25 I think since he was an expert for CP&L that it L. .- -
1 9365 1-7-Jo3Wel .
(} } is very important to get the views of the person who was 2 designing the siren system, whose firm was their chief 3 consultant, and who appears to have these disagreements.
4 I think it is important for the public to be 5 reassured, if possible, that the highest standards have been 6 followed in this system, and that it will work when it needs j 7 to, because it could affect people's lives, their health, 8 and future generations, and I don't think anybody wants l
9 that to happen. f 10 But I think it is, therefore, necessary to go into l 11 this matter in detail and get all the facts, all the relevant.
12 j evidence onto the record, because it doesn't look to me like 13 the Applicants or the FEMA Staff have a strong case here.
i 14 JUDGE KELLEY: Any comment?
l 15 MS. RIDGWAY: We withdraw argument until af ter 16 the first break when we can comment on those portions 17 prefering to Dr. Baseoni.
18 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay, fine.
e 19 MR. ROCHLIS: No comments frem FEMA at this time.
20 JUDGE KELLEY: Fine. Does that bring us then 1
21 to calling the first panel. It seems to. Okay.
22 MS. RIDGWAY: Mr. Chairman, Applicants call Mr. .
23 David Keast, Mr. Al Joyner, and Dr. Dennis Mileti to the
} 24 stand. !
Whereupon, 25
9 l-8-Jo;;Wel 9366 1 DENNIS S. MILETI, 2 and INDEX 3 DAVID N. KEAST, 4 and 5 ALVIN H. JOYNER, 6 were called as witnesses on behalf of the Applicants, and I
. I y having first been duly sworn by Judge Kelley, testified as l 4 l 8 follows: ,
j e ;
9 DIRECT EXAMINATION 10 BY MS. RIDGWAY ,
11 Q Mr. Keast, please state your name, position, 12 ' and business address for the record?
O 13 A (Witnass Keast) I am David N. Keast. L am 14 Vice President and Senior Project Manager for HMM Associates ,
15 in Concord , Massachusetts.
16 l
17 End 1 18 (S folo.
19 20 21 22 .
23 24 m c , ,,, m.
25
9367 Sim 2-1 I
f, Q And, Mr. Joyner, your name, position and
~'
2 business address?
A (Witness Joyner) My name is Alvin H. Joyner.
4 I am the lead planner for fixed nuclear facilities and packing 5
of the State of North Carolina. My business address is 116 0
West Jones Street, Raleigh, North Carolina.
7 Q And, Dr. Mileti, your name position and business 0
address?
A (Witness Mileti) My name is Dennis S. Mileti.
10 I am a professor of sociology and Director of the Hazards 11 Assessment Laboratory at Colorado State University, Fort 12 '-
Collins, Colorado.
, ,3 i '
13 Q Mr. Keast, directing your attention to a document 14' entitled " Testimony of David N. Keast, Alvin H. Joyner and 15
) Dennis S. Mileti on Eddleman 57-C-3, Nighttime Notification,"
i 16l l including Attachments 1 and 4 through 6, were those attachments 17 and the testimony which is associated with your intials 18 prepared by you or under your supervision?
19 A (Witness Keast) Yes, they were.
20 Q Do you have any changes or corrections to those 21 documents?
22 A Yes, I have two. If you all will refer to page 23 11, and incidentally this is the correction which appears 24 Ace 4 i Reporters, Inc. on a corrected sheet which I believe has been handed out to all of the parties, but let me just run through it.
9368 l
Sim 2-2 i On page 11, line 16, the original testimony read -
l
( )
2 " Sound generally propagates (i.e. travels further outdoors 3 with less attenuation)." The change now reads " Sound generally 4 propagates outdoors with less attenuation (i.e. travels 5 further) . "
6 The second change is on the same page on line 7 23, which previously read "Second normal air temperature 8 increases," and has now been changed to read "Second air 9 temperature normally increases."
10 The other correction I have is on page 14, line 11 14, which previously read "A fraction of 0.14 percent of all 12 houses," and should read "A fraction of 0.14 of all houses."
(_) 13 The percent symbol should be deleted.
14 MS. RIDGEWAY: Mr. Chairman, I have marked those 15 corrections on the copies given to the reporter.
16 BY MS. RIDGEWAY:
17 Q With those changes, are those documents true and 18 correct to the best of your knowledge, ,information and 19 belief?
20 A (Witness Keast) Yes, they are.
21 Q And do you adopt those documents as your 22 testimony in this proceeding?
23 A Yes, I do.
lll 24 Ace-Federal Repo,ters Inc.
MS. RIDGEWAY: Mr. Chairman, I would like to ask 25 the Board to direct the reporter to mark this document
. _ -- _ .~. . . _ . . . ._.
9369 Sim 2-3 1 for identification as Applicant's Exhibit 46.
O 2 JUDGE KELLEY: Yes.
3 (The document referred to was 4 marked Applicant's Exhibit No. 46 5 for identification.)
4 INDEX 6 MR. EDDLEMAN: That document is the map that was 7 attached to the tasimony showing the sound coverages as 8 maintained by CP&L?
9 MS. RIDGEWAY: Yes. Mr. Keast will be identifying 10 that.
J 11 BY MS. RIDGEWAY:
12 Q Mr. Keast, I show you this document marked
() 13 Applicant's Exhibit 46 and ask whether you can identify it 14 for the parties?
15 A (Witness Keast) Yes, that is a map, actually 16 a half-size-map that we have prepared. It is a map of the 17 EPZ. It shows the locations of the sirens that we considered 18 in our analysis, the coverage of those sirens under the 19 nighttime conditions postulated in the contention and the t
20 location of the homes in the EPZ.
1 21 Q Mr. Keast, did you use this document in the pre-22 paration of your testimony?
23 A Yes, I did.
24 Ace-F 9of Reporters, Inc. Q And is this document referenced in your testimony?
25 A Yes, it is.
l
9370 Sim 2-4 j Q And do you also adopt it as part of your testimony 2 in this proceeding?
3 A Yes, I do.
4 MS. RIDGEWAY: Mr. Chairman, I move the admission 5 into evidenc" of Applicant's Exhibit 45.
6 JUDGE KELLEY: I have a question about that. I 7 believe that a map was distributed earlier marked September, 8 and then there was a subsequent map dated October '85. Which 9 one is Exhibit 46, or am I incorrect? Maybe I am.
10 MS. RIDGEWAY: Exhibit 46 was served at the time 11 the testimony was served on the Board and the parties.
12 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay. And it is dated 10/1/85?
O j3 MS. R DGEWAY: Perhaps you can help us, Mr. Keast.
It says in the lower-left-hand corner " Prepared 14 15 by HMM Associates, Inc., September 1985.
16 WITNESS KEAST: Yes. I think that is the 17 distinguishing identification, that it was prepared by our 18 firm. I think it is the only map that has appeared in this 39 case which has been prepared by our firm.
20 JUDGE KELLEY: All right, and yours is September.
21 Maybe Dr. Carpenter can help me on this one. I am just 22 confused about these two maps I seem to have. October '85, 23 what map is that?
24 MS. RIDGEWAY: We may be able to clear that up w hp <sm, tac.
25 over the break for you more easily as well. There are maps
)
l 9371 -
Sim 2-5 j which have been prepared and submitted in this case to show l 2 conformity to FEMA 43, which requires analysis under different 3
conditions.
4 Applicant's Exhibit 46 was prepared specifically 5
f r nighttime conditions and using a different number of
- 6 sirens.
7 JUDGE KELLEY: I think we are, or at least I 8
am straight on this now.
9 Mr. Eddleman, is that straight with you, too?
10 MR. EDDLEMAN: I know which one it is. I have 11 a concern about the way it was asked to be introduced in 12 that it was asked do you adopt this map as your testimony.
O i3 I think I ught to raise an objection to that because I think j4 it is very difficult to cross-examine a map, and I am not 15 sure how to get into the details since the base information 16 fr m which this map supposedly was drawn has not been provided 37 in order to cross-examine on it..
18 JUDGE KELLEY: Well, but can't that come out in j9 the cross?
20 MR. EDDLEMAN: Well, I guess I can do it that 21 way, but I want to raise that point now.
22 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay. But I think the objection 23 itself would come as to when there may or may not be a prpblem 24 in the course of cross.
hce-FLJ Reporters, Inc.
25 MR. EDDLEMAN: All right.
9372 Sim 2-6 1 JUDGE KELLEY: That would be my reaction.
2 MR. EDDLEMAN: Your Honor, the information on 3 which the map is based is indeed included in the testimony.
4 Indeed, it is referenced in the testimony where it is 5 explained.
6 JUDGE KELLEY: And the witnesses' pc/ticipation 7 has to do with nighttime and circles and that kind of thing, l
8 correct?
l 9 MS. RIDGEWAY: That is correct.
10 JUDGE KELLEY: And that is the subject of cross?
11 MS. RIDGEWAY: That is correct.
12 JUDGE KELLEY: So the motion to admit Exhibit
() 13 46 is granted.
14 (Applicant's Exhibit No. 46,.
15 previously marked for identifica-16 tion, was admitted into evidence.)
2NDEX 17 BY MS. RIDGEWAY:
4 18 Q Mr. Joyner, directing your attention to a 19 document entitled " Testimony of David N. Keast, Alvin H.
! 20 Joyner and Dennis S. Mileti on Eddleman 57-C-3, Nighttime 21 Notification," including Attachment 2, was that attachment 22 and the testimony which is associated with your initials 23 prepared by you or under your supervision?
24 A (Witness Joyner) Yes, it was .
of Reporters, Inc.
25 Q Do you have any changes or corrections to those
--- g - w- v -*-- ---ws-+ - - c y-pyy g- ---+g
9373 Sin 2-7 i documents?
() 2 A No, I do not.
3 Q Are those documents true and correct to the best 4 of your knowledge, information and belief?
5 A Yes, they are.
6 Q And do you adopt those documents as your testimony 7 in this proceeding?
8 A I do.
9 Q Dr. Mileti, I direct your attention to the same 10 document entitled " Testimony of David N. Keast, Alvin H. Joyner 11 and Dennis S. Mileti on Eddleman 57-C-3, Nighttime Notification, * !
12 including Attachment 3. '
(]) 13 Was that attachment and the testimony which is ja' associated with your initials prepared by you or under your 15 supervision?
16 A (Witness Mileti) Yes, they were.
17 Q Do you have any changes or corrections to those 18 documents?
19 A Yes, I do. I have two changes.
20 The first change is on page 34. -A revised version 21 of Page 34 has already been passed out to all parties, but 22 let me review the change.
23 The change was made in the equation at the top 24 of the page listed in lines 3 through 7. The word processor n.p ,*n inc.
25 garbled both the first term in the equation and the last term
1 9374 Sim 2-8 1 in the equation.
O 2 The left-hand side of the equation should read 4
4 3 " Total percentage of households alerted." And the right term I 4 in the equation should read " Percentage of households alerted 5 inf5rmally (awakened by communications from others)."
icnd Sim 6
!Sunfois
! 7 4
8 j' 9 .
t 4
j 11 i 12 4
'l I 15 t
16 t
17
. 18 l 19 L i
21 l
. 22 1
23
}- 24 a.porim, Inc.
!- 25 I
i i
. _ _ _ - . . . . . _ _ _ , . _ . . _ . . _ _ . _ _ _ _ . , , , _ - _ . ~ , . . _- . . _ . _ . - , . _ . . . . , _ . . _ . , _ . . . _ _ _ _ . . . . _ . _ - - . . . . . . , _ _ . _ , -
9375 My second change is on Page 36. In the third line 93{;sueW 1 2 of Page 36, the year 1982 should be replaced with the year 3 1972.
4 MS. RIDGWAY: Mr. Chairman, I have made both of 5 those corrections on the copies given to the Reporter.
6 BY MS. RIDGWAY: (Continuing) 7 0 Dr. Mileti, with those changes are those documents a true and correct to the best of your knowledge, information and .
I 9' belief?
10 A (Witness Mileti) Yes, they are.
11 , O And do you adopt those documents as your testimony l
12 ! in this' proceeding?
13 A Yes, I do.
2 14 MS. RIDGWAY: Mr. Chairman, I move that the document 15 entitled " Testimony of David N. Keast, Alvin H. Joyner and 16 Dennis S. Mileti on Eddleman 57-C-3, Night-Time Notification,"
i!
17 !I including Attachments 1 through 6 be admitted into evidence il 18 and bound into the record as if read.
19 MR. EDDLEMAN: I don't have any objection. For 20 clarification, Ms. Ridgway, who ard the sponsors of 4, 5 and 21 6 Attachments? l l
22 MS. RIDGWAY: Those were sponsored by Mr. Keast. .
23 MR. EDDLEMAN: Okay. '
24 MR. ROCHLIS: No objection, Your Honor.
WFederal Repo,ters, Inc.
25 JUDGE KELLEY: Motion granted.
(The testimony follows.)
' i l
l II us 1 I l
2 3
October 18, 1985 4
5 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 6
BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD 7
8 In the Matter of )
)
9 CAROLINA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY )
and NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN ) Docket No. 50-400 OL 10 MUNICIPAL POWER AGENCY )
)
11 (Shearon Harris Nuclear Power )
Plant) )
12 13
,/
s_> 14 TESTIMONY OF 15 DAVID N. KEAST, ALVIN H. JOYNER AND DENNIS S. MILETI :
ON EDDLEMAN 57-C-3 16 (NIGHT-TIME NOTIFICATION) 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 cs 26 1
',,,)
', 1
(} l Q.1 Please state your names.
2 A.1 David N. Keast (DNK), Alvin H. Joyner (AHJ), and 3 Dennis S. Mileti (DSM).
4 Q.2 Mr. Keast, by whom are you employed, and what is your 4
5 position?
6 A.2 (DNK): I am a Vice President and Senior Project 7 Manager with HMM Associates, Inc. of Concord, Massachusetts, 8 where I specialize in public warning system studies. HMM has 9 been retained by Carolina Power & Light Company to analyze the 10 Harris siren system in response to Eddleman Contention 57-C-3.
i 11 Q.3 Please summarize your professional qualifications and l
12 experience.
13 A.3 (DNK): I graduated in 1954 from a combined
( 14 educational program between Amherst College and the 15 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. At that time, I 16 received a Bachelor of Arts degree from Amherst and a Bachelor 17 of Science and a Masters of Science in Electrical Engineering 18 from MIT.
19 My professional career has been almost entirely in the 20 field of acoustics, and during that career I have been involvec 21 in almost all aspects of the field. Of particular pertinence 22 to the question of nighttime notification, I have performed 23 research, published papers and provided consulting services on 24 the effects of meteorological conditions on the propagation of 4
25 26 O V
4
1 sound outdoors, on the sound attenuating properties of building
-(])
2 structures, and on ambient background noise levels. I have 3 provided consulting services and prepared environmental impact 4 studies on the effects of sounds (noise) on people, and I have 5 developed performance criteria for and designed noise control 6 treatments to mitigate noise problems.
7 I am a Fellow of the Acoustical Society of America, a 8 senior member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic 9 Engineers and an affiliate of the Institute of Noise Control 10 Engineers. A complete statement of my professional 11 qualifications is appended as Attachment 1 to this testimony.
12 Q.4 Please describe your specific experience with systems 13 of sirens for alerting the public in the event of an emergency.
() 14 A.4 (DNK): Following FEMA guidance, I have supervised 15 the design of siren alerting s9 stems for the Susquehanna, 16 Millstone, Connecticut Yankee, Perry and Seabrook Nuclear Power 17 Plants. In addition, I have prepared reports in response to 18 EEMA-43, " Standard Guide for the Evaluation of Alert and 19 Notification Systems for Nuclear Power Plants", for the public 20 alerting systems at Turkey Point, St. Lucie, Crystal River, 21 Hatch, Perry, Seabrook and Pilgrim. For Battelle Northwest 22 Laboratories, I supervised the development of an analytical 23 method of estimating the effectiveness of siren systems.
24 25
(} l l
l i
L- _ _ _ _ y
{} 1 Q.5 Mr. Joyner, by whom are you employed, and what is 2 your position?
3 A.5 (AHJ): I am the lead planner for fixed nuclear 4 facilities within the Division of Emergency Management ("DEM")
5 of the North Carolina Department of Crime Control and Public 6 Safety. The basic responsibilities of DEM include fulfilling 7 the State's role in emergency planning for natural and manmade 8 disasters, in responding to and recovering from disasters, and 9 in mitigating their effects.
10 Q.6 Please summarize your professional qualifications and 11 experience.
12 A.6 (AHJ): As a primary planner for fixed nuclear 13 facilities, I have been directly involved in the development of
) 14 the offsite emergency capability for the Shearon Harris Nuclear 15 Power Plant, as well as the Catawba, McGuire, and Brunswick 16 nuclear plants. Since April 1985, I have had overall 17 responsibility for emergency planning activities concerning the 18 Harris plant. Prior to April, I was the coordinator for the 19 September revision and Change 2 to the North Carolina Emergency 20 Response Plan in Support of the Shearon Harris Nuclear Power 21 Plant, and had extensive contact with the surrounding counties 22 in developing their portions of the plan. I was also 23 responsible for overall coordination with the affected counties 24 and the utility in the development of the May 1985 exercise for
~
25 26 ,
i I
I
(). 1 Shearon Harris. In addition, I have supported the Division's 2 response to statewide emergencies such as the tornadoes in 3 March 1984, Hurricane Diana in September 1984, the forest fires 4 which occurred across the State in the Spring of this year, and 5 most recently, Hurricane Gloria. A complete statement of my 6 professional qualifications is appended as Attachment 2 to this 7 testimony.
8 Q.7 Dr. Mileti, by whom are you employed, and what is 9 your position?
10 A.7 (DSM): I am a Professor in the Department of 11 Sociology and Director of the Hazards Assessment Laboratory at 12 Colorado State University, specializing in those areas of study 13 dealing with organizations, hazards, policy and methods (with a 14 particular emphasis on public response to emergencies).
15 Q.8 Please summarize your professional qualifications.
16 A.8 (DSM): I received my Bachelor of Arts degree in 17 Sociology in 1968 from the University of California at 18 Los Angeles. In 1971 I was awarded a Master of Arts degree in 19 Sociology from California State University, Los Angeles. From 20 1971 to 1972, I was an Instructor in the Department of 21 Sociology at the University of Colorado, Boulder. I completed 22 my doctorate degree in Sociology in 1974 at the University of
. 23 Colorado, Boulder. From 1974 to 1978 (when I was appointed an l
~
24 Associate Professor at Colorado State. University), I held the l 25 26 l l
() 1 position of Assistant Professor at that institution. I became 2 a full Professor this year. I have taught numerous 3 undergraduate courses including Introduction to Sociology, 4 Complex Organi stions, Sociology of Di.sasters, Research 5 Methods, Theory, Demographic Processes, and Social Change. In 6 addition, I have taught courses at the graduate level such as 7 Advanced Quantitative Analysis, Research Methods I and II, 8 Demography and Population, and Complex Organizations.
9 In 1975 I was appointed Visiting Assistant Professor at 10 the University of Southern California Graduate School of Public 11 Administration. From 1978 to 1979, I was an Invited Instructor 12 for the Chautauqua Short Course Program sponsored by the 13 American Association for the Advancement of Science. In 1981, i/ 14 I was appointed Policy Analyst for the Seismic Safety 15 Commission by the State of California. (During the year I 16 served this appointment, I was on leave from my university 17 duties).
18 I am also active in a number of professional 19 organizations, including the American Sociological Association; 20 the International Sociological Association; the Pacific 21 Sociological Association; the Midwest Soci ological Society; the 22 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute; the Society for the 23 Study of Risk Analysis; and the American Association for the 24 Advancement of Science. I currently also serve as a member of 25 s 26 ' ,
l
() 1 the Committee on Natural Disasters in the National Academy of 2 Sciences. A complete statement of my professional i
3 qualifications is appended as Attachment 3 to this testimony.
4 Q.9 What is the purpose of this testimony?
5 A.9 (DNK, AHJ, DSM): The purpose of this testimony is to I
6 respond to Eddleman Contention 57-C-3. As orig'.nally admitted I
j 7 by the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board, that contention 8 asserted:
9 The plan does not have provisions for
< notification at night, e.g. in the hours
- 10 between 1 a.m. and 6 a.m. when most people living near the plant would normally be 11 asleep. Nor does the plan assure that they would be timely awakened to take sheltering 12 action, as e.g. on a summer night when many 3
might have windows open or air conditioners
- 13 on. The plan should provide automatic O 14 phone-dialing equipment to transmit an emergency message to all households in the
- EPZ for Harris, asking people to alert
! 15 their phoneless neighbors.
i 16 The Board has directed that, "[ alt the evidentiary hearing, the 17 Applicants should address whether the sirens can wake up 18 virtually all the people sleeping in the EPZ between 1 and 6
- 19 a.m., particularly those with windows closed and air 20 conditioners running. The Applicants should also address i 21 whether the presently-planned means of back-up mobile 22 ' notification could and should be augmented to meet the "about" 23 15-minute standard in Appendix E, if necessary." .
24 25
() ,
l
1 1 Q.10 How would the public within the Harris plume EPZ be
(])
2 notified of an emergency at night, between the hours of 1:00 3 a.m. and 6:00 a.m.?
4 A.10 (DNK, AHJ): The provisions for public notification 5 of an emergency at Harris are the same whether the emergency 6 occurs during the day or at night. The fixed siren system has 7 been designed in accordance with FEMA guidance, and has 69 8 sirens located throughout the Harris EPZ (plus 10 sirens on 9 Harris Lake). It will serve as the primary public alerting 10 system in the event of an emergency at the Harris plant.
11 (DNK) I have analyzed the performance of a 68 siren system 12 for the particular conditions postulated in Eddleman 57-C-3.
13 My analysis is therefore conservative to the extent that it
() 14 excluded the 10 sirens around Harris Lake and one new siren 15 which is proposed for the southern edge of the EPZ.
16 Q.ll Mr. Keast, what specifically did you do to assess the 17 effectiveness of the fixed siren system in providing public 18 alerting at night?
1 19 A.11 (DNK): I have prepared an estimate of the percentage 20 of households in the Shearon Harris plume EPZ which would be 21 alerted by the operation of the sirens on a hot summer night 22 when air conditioning would be in use.
23 Q.12 What is your estimate?
24 25 26 fs l 1
l l
i .
1 A.12 (DNK): I estimate that at least one person would be 2 awakened in 69% of the sleeping households. Based upon 3 information from the Arbitron Rating Service on the population 4 already awake during the hours between 1 a.m. and 6 a.m., I 5 added 3% to my estimate and concluded th'at 72% of the 6 households would be directly alerted by the Harris siren system 7 under the conditions postulated in the contention.
8 Q.13 Summarize briefly how your estimate was made.
9 A.13 (DNK): First, I calculated the sound coverage around 10 each of the sirens for summer nighttime conditions. This 11 allowed me to determine the siren sound levels outside of all 12 the houses. I then subtracted appropriate values for the 13 attenuation of sound from outside a house to an inside bedroom,
() 14 at the pillow of a bed. I compared these interior sound levels 15 to the background noise at the bed caused by an air conditioner 16 or window fan. In those cases where the siren sound at the bed 17 exceeded the background noise, I determined the probability of 18 awakening at least one person in each household. The results 19 of these calculations, summed over the entire EPZ, led to the l
l 20 conclusion of 69% that I just mentioned.
21 Q.14 Now I would like you to go through each step in more i 22 detail. To start with, would you describe how you calculated 23 the outdoor sound coverage of the sirens?
1 24
~
25 26 O
[J x
1 1 A.14 (DNK): I used a computer model which calculated the 2 maximum outdoor sound levels at various distances in each of 16 3 directions from each siren, given the terrain around each siren 4 and the meteorological conditions. This model combines the 5 effects of all the major parameters which influence outdoor 6 sound propagation by applying computational algorithms which 7 are directly traceable to the technical literature. These 8 effects are spherical divergence, atmospheric absorption, 9 attenuation by forests, ground absorption, refraction caused by 10 vertical wind-speed and emperature gradients, scattering by 11 buildings in built-up areas and shielding by hills.
12 The calculated sound levels are in decibels (dB), a 13 logarithmic ratio scale customarily used in acoustics. On this
(_) 14 scale, quantities that differ by a factor of 2 are 3 dB apart; 15 quantities that differ by a factor of 3 are 5 dB apart:
16 quantities that differ by a factor of 10 are 10 dB apart, etc.
17 The results of our computer model have been compared with 18 field measurements of the energy-equivalent level of actual 19 siren sounds obtained by other organizations. On average, the 20 computer model results agrec with the field measurements to 21 within about 0.9 dB with a standard deviation of 4.4 dB.
22 We have used this computer model for studies of siren 23 coverage around the Seabrook, Pilgrim and Maine Yankee nuclear 24 Power plants. In addition, the model has been sold to other 25 organizations for their use.
z- 26
('~' i l
1 Using the computer calculations, we have determined sound-2 coverage contours around each siren in 5 dB steps, starting at 3 105 dB and ending at 60 dB. Drawn on a map (Applicants' 4 Exhibit 46), these contours roughly form rings about each 5 siren. The rings are often mis-shapen because of the local 6 effects of terrain around particular sirens.
7 Q.15 Did you use the siren sound coverage contours which 8 were prepared for the FEMA-43 studies of the Harris siren 9 system?
10 A.15 (DNK): No. Siren coverage depends upon weather 11 conditions. FEMA-43 studies, which analyze siren systems in 12 accordance with FEMA requirements, are done for average summer 13 daytime conditions. Since the contention addresses nighttime
() 14 conditions, our calculations were done for the nighttime 15 meteorological conditions listed in Attachment 4.
16 Sound generally propagates outdoors with less attenuation 17 (i.e., travels farther) at night than in the daytime. Each of 18 the contours we computed for nighttime conditions covered a 19 greater area than the daytime contour for the same sound level.
20 There are two major physical reasons for this difference.
21 First, low wind speeds at night combined with a positive 22 temperature gradient suppress the occurrence of acoustic shadow 23 zones. Second, air temperature normally increases with height 24 above the ground at night, and this reduces the shielding 25 effect of hills.
26 I; 1 Q.16 Would you please describe how you determined the 2 numbers of houses exposed to various siren sound levels 3 outdoors?
4 A.16 (DNK)': The maximum siren sound-level contours 5 computed as I have just described were drawn on maps that were 6 supplied to us by Carolina Power & Light Company. These maps 7 show the locations of the residential buildings in the EPZ.
8 The residential building locations are reproduced on 9 Applicants' Exhibit 46, and are based upon a 1982 housing 10 survey conducted by Carolina Power & Light Company. I manually 11 counted the buildings within each pair of contours, and 12 attributed a single sound level to each of these counts. For 13 example, all houses between the 85 and 90 dB contours were
,~
i_/ 14 assumed to be exposed to 87 dB; all houses between the 70 and 15 75 dB contours were assumed to be exposed to 72 dB, and so 16 forth.
17 At the lower siren sound levels, we encountered many 18 houses which were covered by approximately the same sound level 19 from two or more sirens: for example, houses within the 80-85 20 dB ring of two different sirens. In such cases we combined the 21 exposure logarithmically. For this example, 82 dB (which is 22 the level we used for houses in a single 80-85 dB ring) plus a 23 second 82 a3 yields an 85 dB exposure. The justification for 24 this adjuctment in sound level in those cases where siren 25 1 _ 26 7 CJ
)
(} 1 coverages overlap will become apparent when I describe how we 2 determined awakening in response to the siren sounds.
3 In this way, we assigned outdoor siren sound levels to all 4 houses in the EPZ. These levels ranged from 67 to 112 dB. The .
5 actual sound levels and numbers of houses counted for each J
6 level are listed on Attachment 5.
7 Q 17 How did you determine the siren sound levels indoors?
8 A.17 (DNK): We considered the fact that different houses 9 have different attenuation characteristics. In single-family 10 residential buildings, these differences are attributable 11 almost entirely to the windows: whether they are open or 12 closed, and whether storm windows are in use. On the basis of :
, 13 acoustic studies and demographic data, we divided the houses in
() 14 the EPZ into the 8 sub-groups listed on Attachment 6, assuming 15 an even distribution of each sub-group, according to its 16 percentage of the housing stock, within each of the designated 17 sound contour levels.
18 For example, consider subgrcup 1 on Attachment 6.
19 Demographic data from the references identified on the 20 Attachment indicate that 35.6% (a fraction of 0.356) of the 21 houses in the EPZ have no air conditioning. We assumed that 22 all such houses would have their bedroom windows open and a 23 window fan in operation on the hot summer night under study.
24 (The analysis is conservative to the extent that it overstates 25 26 l
f
() l' the background noise for houses without window f ans. ) Acoustic 2 studies have shown that the reduction of sound level, or 3, attenuation, from outdoors to just above the pillow of a 4 bedroom with windows open averages 12 dB. Other studies have 5' shown that the pertinent background noise level at the pillow 6 caused by a window fan averages 40 dB.
7 ,
For another example, consider subgrcups 2, 3 and 4 on the 8 Attachment. Denographic data indicate that 30.2% (a fraction 9 of 0.302) of all houses have window air conditioners, and I 10 have assumed that when these are in use the bedroom windows 11 would always be closed. 53% of these houses with window air 12 conditioners have one installed in the bedroom. This 13 represente 0.53 x'O.302 = 0.16 of all houses. The remainder, a 14 fraction of 0.14 of all houses, have a window air conditioner 15 installed elsewhere in the house. To be conservative, I have 16 assumed that these are installed in a room adjacent to the 17 bedroom, and that the intervening door is open.
18 In addition, observations of and reports on the EPZ 19 indicate that about 75% of the air-conditioned houses have 20 storm windows installed and closed if possible during the I
21 summer. (Storm vindows cannot be fully closed in a room where 22 a window air conditioner is installed.) The remaining 25%
23 either have no storm windows, or leave one or more of them open 24 in summer, even where the main sashes are closed.
25
()
l l
' 1 Finally, acoustic studies have shown that the attenuation
)
2 of the siren sound in penetrating closed windows to the head of 3 a bed is 26 dB when the storm sash is open, and 30 dB when the 4 storm sash is closed. Other studies have shown that the 5 background noise at the bed from a window air conditioner in 6 the same room is 49 dB, and that the attenuation of air 7 conditioner noise from one room to the next through an open 8 intervening doorway is 10 dB.
9 In a similar manner, the demographic and acoustic data 10 noted on Attachment 6 have been used to determine the necessary 11 information for the 34.2% of the houses in the EPZ which have 12 central air conditioning.
13 Let me illustrate how the information on housing k.) 14 differences in Attachment 6 were applied to analyze siren sound 15 levels in bedrooms in the EPZ. Attachment 5 indicatec that 16 there are 1826 houses between the 80 and 85 dB siren sound 17 level contours (or within the overlapping 75 to 80 dB rings of 18 three sirens, which is equivalent). Of these 1826 houses, the 19 ratios listed on Attachment 5 indicate that 650 houses (the 20 35.6% without air conditioning and windows open) have a maximum 21 siren sound level at the bed of 70 dB (82 minus 12), and that 22 this level is 30 dB (70 minus 40) above the background noise 23 caused by the fan. Similarly, an additional 292 houses (16%)
24 with window air conditioners in the bedrooms have a maximum 25
- .s 26 ! \
L Y
r
) 1 siren sound level at the pillow of 56 dB (82 minus 26). This 2 siren sound level is 7 dB (56 minus 49) above the background 3 noise caused by the air conditioner.
4 You can see how this process, carried out for all of the 5 eight classes of houses, divides the example of 1826 houses 6 having a maximum outdoor siren sound level of 82 dB into eight 7 sub-groups with different siren sound levels at the pillows of 8 a bedroom, and with correspondingly different amounts of siren 9 sound relative to the background noise level in the bedroom.
10 Of course, we repeated this process for all of the 19 nominal 11 outdoor siren sound levels listed in Attachment 5, so we had a 12 total of 152 sub-groups of houses (19 times 8).
13 Q.18 You have described how you computed the maximum siren
()_ 14 sound levels and compared them to background noise levels in 15 the bedrooms of the houses in the EPZ. How do you know whether 16 or not people would be awakened by the siren sounds?
17 A.18 (CNK)-. There has been considerable research on the 18 extent to which people are awakened by sounds. I believe that 19 it is important to review for this hearing some of the 20 qualitative results of this research.
21 This review is based upon a report by Jerome S. Lukas of 22 the Stanford Research Institute, which was published by the 23 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in February 1977.
24 This report is entitled " Measures of Noise Levels: Their 25 I
~~ 26 / :
I
~
y
(]) 1 Relative Accuracy in Predicting Objective and Cubjective a 2 Responses to Noise During Sleep" and numbered EPA-600/1-77-OlO.
3 Lukas' report is a comprehensive analysis of all data
- 4 available at the time on the effects of sound on sleep. His 4
5 results were adopted by the EPA for general guidance (see U.S.
i 6 E.P.A. " Desk Reference to Health and Welfare Effects of Noise",
7 October 1979); and.to support federal noise regulations (see, 8 for example, " Regulatory Analyses for the Final Noise Emissions j 9 Regulations for Buses", EPA 550/9-80-212, July, 1980).
j 10 First, the level of the awakening sound at the sleeper's 11 head position must be high enough to be audible in the presence 12 of the ambient background noise at the sleeper. Once this 13 threshold is exceeded, the chance of awakening increases as the
( 14 sound level increases. This observation is embodied in Mr.
15 Eddleman's contention where he posits that whereas siren sounds 16 might not awaken people at night, a ringing telephone would.
4 17 Secondly, the duration of the sound is important. The 18 longer a sound of a given level persists the more likely it is 19 that it will awaken people.
- 20 Third, the age of the sleeper is believed to be pertinent.
21 The tendency of people to be awakened by a sound increases with 22 their age. Beyond college age, there are indications that 23 women are more likely to be awakened than men of the same age.
24 25 l
() 1
i
() 1 Fourth, the meaning of the sound, or the motivation of the 2 sleeper to be awakened by the sound, is a factor. Even when we 3 are sleeping, we are still hearing and discriminating among the 4 sounds in our environment. Depending upon our motivation, we 5 are more likely to be awakened by certain " recognizable" sounds 6 than by others. It is a common experience that some sounds 7 sufficient to awaken people are quite modest: a footstep in 8 the hall or a restless child in another room.
9 Finally, physiologists have determined that normal sleep I
10 has several different stages which occur at various times 11 during the sleep period. People are more likely to be awakened 12 during some of these sleep stages than during others.
13 Q.'.9 What particular results have you relied upon in this m
k-) 14 case to determine the extent to which the sounds of sirens will 15 awaken people sleeping in the Shearon Harris EPZ7 16 A.19 (DNK): In his report, Lukas has summarized the 17 results of about 20 different research studies on the ability 18 of noises and other sounds, such as tones, to disturb people's 19 sleep. In analyzing these research results, which included the 20 results of five of his own research efforts, Lukas developed 21 conclusions in four areas.
22 1. The appropriate measure of sound exposure, in terms t
23 of the sound level, spectral content and duration, to 24 relate sound to sleep disturbance and awakening; 25 l ()
() 1 2. Therelationshipofsoubd.toarousalorbehavioral 2 awakening of sleepers; 3 3. The relationship of sound exposure to disruption, or 4 change in sleep patterns, without awakening; -
5 4. The relationship of sound exposure to sleep quality, 4
6 as judged by the test subject.
7 I have applidd the first two of these results from Lukas' 8 report: The use of Effective Perceived Noise Level (EPNdB) as 9 an appropriate measure of sound exposure, and Lukas' t
10 relationship between EPNdB and the percentage of people 11 awakened by sounds.
12 This approach includes the effects of the level and 13 duration of the sound, and relies upon averaged awakening data 14 for college and middle-aged men and women. The effects of 15 various sleep stages are also averaged, and presumab1y the 16 motivation of the test subjects to be awakened was neutral.
17 Q.20 What is-Effective Perceived Noise Level?
18 A.20 (DNK): Effective Perceived Noise Level is a measure 19 which combines the various physical properties of a sound into 20 a number that correlates highly with people's judgment of the l 21 noisiness of the sound. EPNdB is expressed in decibels.
22 Included in the EPNdB measure computed for a sound are factors 23 for the spectral content (akin to pitch) of the sound, the 24 magnitude or level of the sound, the duration of the sound, the
! 25 26 i i
l i
)l
I
[ h
() _
1 rapidity with which it occurs and the presence of any strong 2 tonal characteristics in the sound.
3 I believe that the most familiar application of the EPNdB 4 concept is in the regulation of the noise from airliners by the 5 Federal Aviation Administration under 14 CFR Part 36.
6 Q.21 How did you calculate the EPNdB values for the siren 7 sounds in people's bedrooms around the Harris plant?
8 A.21 (DNK): I used the same method Lukas cid, according 9 to references in his report. This method is described in a 10 book by Karl D. Kryter entitled The Effects of Noise on Man 11 (Academic Press, New York, 1970). The only difference, 12 according to Lukas, is that he used a sound reference duration 13 of 1/2 second, as opposed to Kryter's reference duration of 8 I.)
14 seconds. To conform to Lukas, I also used a 1/2 second 15 reference duration.
16 I would like to expand on this matter of sound duration.
17 First of all, the EPNdB value for a steady sound increases as 18 long as the sound persists. The rate of increase is 3 d3 for 19 each doubling of the sound duration. For example, if a steady 20 sound lasts 1 second and has an EPNdB value of 100 d3, then if 21 it continues for 2 seconds the EPNdB'value would be 103 dB; 22 after 4 seconds it would be 106 dB; after 8 seconds, 109 dB, 23 etc. This is the way in which the EPNdB concept incorporates 24 the fact that people are more likely to be awakened the longer 25 a sound lasts.
26 cs-~ )
I
[; 1 Secondly, you will recall my testimony earlier that when 2 counting houses, we increased the nominal outdoor sound level 3 when a home fell within the coverage areas of two or more 4 sirens. The example I used was a home within the 80 to 85 dB 5 coverage ring of two different sirens. I indicated that the 6 level we used for houses in a single 80 to 85 dB ring was 82 7 dB, and for houses where two of these rings overlapped we used 8 the log sum of 82 dB plus 82 dB, or 85 dB. Now imagine being 9 in one of those areas where the coverage of two sirens 10 overlaps. The sirens are on and rotating and if by chance they 11 are exactly in synchronism so that the two sound beams pass our 12 location simultaneously, we would indeed be exposed to the log 13 sum of the two sound levels, or 85 d3 in this example. It is
(~b
\ ' 14 more likely, however, that the sound beams from the sirens 15 would not be synchronized and we would hear one pass and then 16 the other. The effect is to double the portion of the time 17 that we hear a siren. This is an increase in the duration of 18 our sound exposure. In computing EPNdB values, a doubling of 19 sound duration has the same effect as a doubling of sound 20 level, a 3 d3 increase in both cases. This is the 21 justification for logarithmically adding the outdoor siren 22 sound levels for those houses that fall within the coverage 23 areas of two or more sirens.
24 25
-m '
26
( >
,f %.
i 1 Finally, I want to explain how we determined the effective 2 sound duration for rotating sirens. As a siren rotates, the 3 sound level rises and falls at any fixed location. The sound 4 level vs. time is determined by the directivity pattern of the 5 siren and the siren rotation rate. In computing EPNdB values, 6 I integrated over this temporal pattern for those portions of 7 the pattern that exceeded the background noise in the bedroom.
8 Close to a siren where the sound level is high compared to the 9 background noise, the integration is over the whole peak of the 10 sound beam as the siren rotates by. At a great distance from 11 the siren, the sound level is less, and the duration of 12 exposure is also reduced because less of the siren sound peak 13 rises above the background noise. In extreme cases the peak of i
( )
x/ 14 the siren sound beam never exceeds the background noise, the 15 siren is inaudible and the EPNdB integral is zero.
16 Q.22 Given the EPNdB values you calculated for the 152 17 categories of houses, how did you then determine the percentage 18 of households in which someone would be awakened?
19 A.22 (DNK): The Lukas report I mentioned gives the 20 percentage of people who would be awakened at any EPNdB value.
21 This percentage, divided by 100, is the probability of 22 awakening any one person exposed to that EPNdB.
23 of course, it is only necessary to awaken one person in a 24 household in order to be assured that the whole family will be 25 c- 26 '
i
) 1 alerted. From Lukas' percentage, it is possible to calculate 2 the probability of awakening one out of two people in a 3 household, one out of three, one out of four, and so on.
4 U.S. Census data indicate that the average family size in 5 the Shearon Harris EPZ is 3.37 people. Using this number, I 6 computed the probability of awakening one out of three people 7 for each of the 152 housing categories, multiplied by the 8 actual number of houses in each category, and then summed the 9 results. This led to the conclusion that 77% of the households 10 would be awakened.
11 on reflection, however, I felt that this result 12 overestimated awakening for small families and underestimated 13 it for large families. The same census data also indicate that
^'
/ i
\_ 14 18.5% of the households in the Shearon Harris EPZ have one 15 person; 29.5% have 2 persons; 19.6% have 3 persons and the 16 remaining 32.4% have 4 or more persons. Using these numbers I 17 calculated the probability of awakening one person for 18.5% of 18 the houses; the probability of awakening one out of two persons 19 for 29.5% of the houses; the probability of awakening one out 20 of three persons for 19.6% of the houses; and the probability 21 of awakening one out of four persons for 32.4% of the houses.
22 Summed over all housing categories, this led to my conclusion 23 that at least one person would be awakened in 69% of the 24 households.
25
'^
.\_ /
f,,) 1 Q.23 Why do you think some might consider your estimate to 2 be somewhat higher than what they might intuitively expect 3 based on common experience?
4 A.23 (DNK): I believe there are two reasons. First, 5 sound generally travels outdoor's with less attenuation at night 6 than during the daytime. At many locations in the EPZ, the 7 siren sound level will typically be higher at night than in the 8 daytime. Hence, the sound is more likely to be effective after 9 penetrating building structures.
10 Secondly, in the event of an emergency, the sirens will be 11 operated for a really long time. The persistence of this 12 sound, compared to something like the siren of a speeding fire 13 engine, will greatly increase the number of people awakened.
g 14 Q.24 Just how long would the fixed sirens be sounded in 15 the event of an emergency at Harris?
16 A.24 (AHJ)- For initial public notification, sirens will 17 be sounded for four three-minute periods during the first 15 18 minutes after activation. The three-minute activations will be 19 interrupted only by intervals of approximately 30 seconds in 20 which the sirens are re-activated. The intent is to sound the 21 sirens as frequently as possible during the first 15 minutes 22 subsequent to activation. For notification thereafter, the 23 number of soundings is in the judgment and discretion of the 24 public official responsible for activating the system, 25 depending on conditions such as the time of day.
7\ 26
\ !
/*u
) 1 (DNK): My calculations were performed assuming a total 2 siren operating time of 10 minutes, and hence are conservative 3 when compared to the 12 minute operating time planned by the
'4 State.
5 Q.25 Mr. Keast, you have described a large number of 6 calculations that you performed. To what extent is your 7 conclusion supported by experimental evidence?
8 A.25 (DNK): The numbers I used are based upon 9 experimental evidence. These include the numbers for sound 10 attenuation through the atmosphere and building structures, 11 background noise levels indoors, the locations of houses, the 12 numbers of houses by type of air conditior.ing and window 13 :endition, awakening as a function of sound properties, and
/ )
i / 14 '
.amily sizes.
15 There have also been instances where sirens have operated 16 at night either intentionally or inadvertently, and awakened 17 large numbecs of people as a result. Most recently, when 18 Hurricane Elana was approaching the west coast of Florida, the 19 siren system in the EPZ around the Crystal River Nuclear Plant 20 was activated at 1:00 in the morning, and was very effective.
21 In addition, there have occasionally been inadvertent 22 operatio.as of a few sirens at night near the Indian Point and 23 Pilgrim Nuclear Plants, and indeed at Harris last April. In 24 every case I am told that there were large numbers of irate 25
-s 26 l ,
l I
I
( }) 1 phone calls to local police departments and other public 2 officials.
3 Q.26 In addition to the fixed siren system, is there any 4 other direct means of public notification in the event of an 5 emergency at Harris?
6 A.26 (AHJ): Yes. Emergency response officials would 7 provide additional public notification of an emergency through 8 an extensive system of mobile alerting. Thus, in all four 9 counties within the EPZ, vehicles with flashing lights, sirens 10 and/or public address systems will be dispatched promptly upon 11 the activation of the fixed sirens, to provide additional 12 public warning by driving predesignated routes within the EPZ.
13 A thorough analysis has been performed to ensure that the
(_/ 14 entire EPZ will be covered by this mobile alerting system.
15 Zones within the EPZ have been subdivided into subzones within 16 which the road mileage has been measured. The roads have been 17 assigned to specific county agencies, and the routes planned 18 out. In addition, it has been determined that there are 19 sufficient vehicles and personnel to perform the mobile 20 alerting in a timely manner. This conclusion applies to both 21 daytime and nightime (1 a.m. to 6 a.m.) conditions. While the 22 mobile alerting process cannot be completed within 15 minutes, 23 it would be well underway within that period. The times for 24 completion of route alerting would range from approximately 20 25 7, 26 I
)
(} -1 to 45 minutes, depending on the subzone. (These times include 2 the time needed for emergency personnel to reach their duty 3 posts to begin the notification process).
4 The flashing lights, sirens and/or PA systems of mobile 5 alerting vehicles passing throughout the EPZ can be expected to 6 alert most households who might not have heard the fixed 7 sirens. A specific illustration of the use of mobile alerting 8 is the November 1977 evacuation of between 400 and 500 people 9 in Clyde, North Carolina, due to a flash flood. Beginning at 10 about 2:00 a.m., using two police cars and a fire truck, 11 emergency officials completed puolic notification within 12 approximately 30 minutes.
13 Q.27 Would it be possible to augment the mobile alerting
() 14 system so that mobile alerting within the Harris EPZ could be 15 completed within 15 minutes?
16 A.27 (AHJ): No. Each of the four counties has identified 17 additional personnel (with equipment) who would be available to 18 assist with mobile alerting, if necessary, should any of the 19 predesignated personnel be unavailable for any reason at the 20 time of an emergency. However, there simply are not sufficient 21 resources to complete mobile aler. ting of the EPZ within 15 22 minutes. On the other hand, if public officials determine that 23 only a portion of the EPZ needs to be alerted by the fixed 24 siren system and the mobile alerting system, the warning times 25 26 ;
() 1 could be reduced somewhat by concentrating the identified 2 mobile alerting resources in smaller operational areas.
3 Q.28 What would happen to any households which might not 4 receive direct notification of an emergency, either through the 5 fixed siren system or through mobile alerting?
6 A.28 (DSM): In addition to the two identified means of 7 direct (formal) notification, the general public can be 8 expected to be notified of an emergency through a wide variety 9 of indirect means. Informal notification is a very typical 10 public response to emergency information and warnings. It is a 11 phenomenon that is well documented by social science research, 12 (see, for example, T.M. Carter, S. Kendall, and J.P. Clark, 13 " Household Response to Warnings," Mass Emergencies and
( 14 Disasters, 1, 1:95-104, 1983; and D. Mileti, et al., Human 15 Systems in Extreme Environments, Boulder: Institute of 16 Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, 1975, Chapter III, 17 pp. 44-45) and it would undoubtedly occur in response to formal 18 notification (sirens, emergency information and warnings) at i
19 the Harris plant.
20 Q.29 What do the findings of social science research teach 21 us about informal notification?
l 22 A.29 (DSM): Public response to emergency information and 23 warnings of impending disasters has been a topic of 24 investigation by social scientists for almost three decades.
25 26 l
\
/ 1 Many studies have been performed on the subject in a variety of 2 emergencies stemming from geological, climatological, and 3 technological phenomena, and have been documented in a vast 4 body of emergency literature. This research record provides 5 evidence about a wide range of emergency warning /public 6 response phenomena, including public notification and 7 communication between members of the public in an area at risk.
8 A clear conclusion of this research is that people 9 generally seek out additional information upon receipt of an 10 initial warning, before acting on that warning. The end result 11 is that, historically, many people in emergencies have first 12 learned of emergencies from other members of the public. There 13 are two reasons why this is the case. First, emergency
(,)
14 warning /public response is an evolving process; and, second, 15 people generally do not respond to emergency warnings as 16 individuals -- rather, emergency response is largely a group 17 activity. These two fundamental generalizations were 18 established early on in disaster and emergency research 19 conducted in the 1950's and 1960's; they were substantiated in 20 subsequent research, and they have been consistently confirmed 21 in contemporary research investigations.
22 The initial response of most people to a warning of an 23 impending emergency is to seek out more information, and/or 24 engage in additional communication with others. This need to 25
~
26 ['r
\
I s
< 1 engage in a confirmation process is perhaps one of the best a
2 documented phenomena in warning / response research. For most 3 people, hearing a warning does not automatically and 4 instantaneously lead to protective action. Rather, hearing a 5 warning is typically followed by formulating an understanding 6 of that warning; understanding is followed by believing; 7 believing is followed by personalizing the warning; 8 personalizing is followed by making a decision about what to 9 do; and the decision is followed by actual protective action 10 response behavior. Thus, this step-by-step sequence (which can 11 be completed quickly) involves engaging in a process of 12 confirming the warning information that is first received.
13 Confirmation of warning information occurs in a variety of p).
\_
14 ways; for example, people may turn to different radio or TV 15 stations to hear the warning several times, check with friends 16 and neighbors to ask if they heard the same message, and talk 17 the situation over with others. One consequence of the 18 behaviors in which people engage as they seek confirmation of 19 warning information is that they actually become part of the 20 notification / warning dissemination effort, albeit informally, 21 through social networking. In other words, in the event of an 22 emergency at the Harris plant, the seeking of confirmation 23 would lead people to contact others who might or might not as 24 yet have learned of the emergency.
25 26
/. )
Moreover, people rarely, if ever, respond to emergency
(]} l 2 warnings of an impending disaster as social isolates, and most 3 people in most emergencies do not respond as individuals.
4 People generally respond to emergency warnings in groups.
5 Accordingly, because emergency response is largely group 6 behavior, emergencies transform the order of a community into 7 one in which people act towards one another in ways which are 8 more altruistic and caring than the patterns of interpersonal 9 interaction which form routine, day-to-day community life.
10 Some exemplary consequences of this are that, in an emergency, 11 neighbors, friends and family -- and even total strangers --
12 check on one another and offer assistance if it is needed. One 13
\
obvious result of this tendency of people in emergencies to
() 14 form groups and to offer aid and assistance to one another is 15 that it causes people to be in communication with other members 16 of the public who might not as yet have learned of the 17 emergency. Thus, for example, people who have been awakened in 18 the night and received notification of an emergency at Harris 19 generally can be expected to notify neighbors whose houses are 20 still dark and where no one appears to be stirring.
21 Finally, the high level of activity which would be 22 associated with an emergency at Harris would have a strong 23 " ripple effect," generally alerting members of the public to 24 seek additional information about the events taking place, even
~
25 26
?
1 :
1 1
(). 1 if they had not been directly warned by either the fixed i 2 sirens, the mobile alerting system, or another member of the 1
I' 3 public. In other words, the activities of other residents who i
l 4 have already received notification (turning on the lights in i .
l 5 their homes, perhaps preparing to evacuate, or even the stream i
6 of traffic driving out of the EPZ) could awaken (if necessary) 7 and alert most members of the public who may not yet have been
! 8 warned, and cause them to seek additional information about 9 what is going on (for example, by turning on the TV or radio, 10 or by talking to neighbors).
1 i 11 Q.30 Is it possible to estimate the extent and speed of
! 12 such indirect notification processes?
i 13 A.30 (DSM): Yes. There have been several attempts to 14 estimate what I would term " indirect" or " informal" l 15 notification of this sort in particular hypothetical
- 16 emergencies. Additionally, some research efforts on actual l 17 emergencies have collected data on.the proportion of a f4 i 18 particular population at risk that (a) learned of the emergency
( 19 through informal / indirect notification and/or (b) was formally i
20 alerted and then engaged in the informal / indirect notification
! 21 of others. This research documents the occurrence of
! 22 indirect / informal notification in emergencies, and provides l 23 some empirical basis for estimating its rate of occurrence, 24 " given estimates of the proportion of a population notified I .
25 formally (for example, through sirens).
I
1 i
. l
[ \
( 1 Q.31 What is your estimate of the extent and speed of s
2 informal / indirect notification if an emergency were to occur at 3 the Harris plant?
4 A.31 (DSM): I have two separate cets of estimates. One 5 is based on what I call the " natural" rate of informal / indirect 6 notification. These estimates reflect what would be likely to 7 occur given the natural tendency of people to engage in this 8 sort of activity in an emergency. The second set of estimates 9 is what I have termed the " facilitated" rate of 10 informal / indirect notification. These estimates reflect what 11 would likely occur if emergency planning for Harris were to 12 capitalize on this natural tendency in people, to maximize its 13 occurrence in an actual emergency.
o k 14 Q.32 What is your estimate of the natural rate of 15 informal / indirect notification for the Harris EPZ?
16 A.32 (DSM): The estimates I developed lead me to conclude 17 that some 80% of the total population would be alerted within 18 the first 15 minutes, and that some 85% of the total population 19 would be alerted within the first 30 minutes. These estimates 20 are, however, extremely conservative; actual natural rates of 21 informal / indirect notification would likely be higher.
22 Q.33 How did you compute your 15-minute estimate based on 23 the natural rate of informal / indirect notification for the 24 Harris EPZ?
25
! 26
(.)
i
(
{} 2 l A.33 (DSM):
estimate:
I used a simple formula to compute this 3 % OF HOUSEHOLDS % OF HOUSEHOLDS 4 TOTAL % OF ALERTED (AWAKENED & ALERTED INFORMALLY 5 HOUSEHOLDS = AWAKE) FORMALLY + (AWAKENED BY COMMUNICA-6 ALERTEn BY SIRENS TIONS FROM OTHERS) 7 This approach assumed that one person in a household would wake 8
up and alert other persons in the same household. It has been 9
estimated that 69% of the sleeping households in the EPZ would 10 be. alerted (awakened) by the sirens, and that because of people 11 already awake, a total of 72% would be directly alerted. This 12 total of 72%, therefore, is the number I used for the 13 percentage of households alerted (awakened plus awake) formally
() 14 by sirens in the above formula. The next cteo was to compute 15 the percentage of non-formally alerted households that would be 16 informally alerted. I estimated this percentage using the 17
- following formula.
18
% OF HOUSEHOLDS 19 ALERTED INFORMALLY % HOUSEHOLDS (% OF THOSE (AWAKENED BY COMMUNICA- = STILL ASLEEP x .30 ALERTED 20 TIONS FROM OTHERS) AFTER SIRENS FORMALLY) 21 Let me explain this computation. The percentage of households 22 still asleep after the sirens would be sounded was taken to be 23 28% (100% less the 72% alerted formally). The percentage of 24 households alerted formally (72%) was multiplied by 30% (an 25 assumed rate for those formally alerted who would engage in 26 informal notification). This indicated that 21.6% of the total i
O i l i
.- . .. - - . _ . - = _ . _ . . . - _ - _ _- -- - .- _. .. - . - - ..
1 4
1-a j () 1 population would be engaged in the informal notification of f '2 others. I assumed that this informal notification would occur l
.f
.'. 3 randomly; that is, that those involved in initiating informal 4 4 notification would do so 72% of the time with households 3
- 5 already notified, and 28% of the time with households not 6 already alerted. Accordingly, 21.6 x 28.0 indicates that an 7 additional 6% of the sleeping households would be alerted
] 8 informally. This suggests that some 78% of the total i
j 9 population would be notified within 15 minutes. I adjusted 10 this estimate by 2%, and conclude that some 80% would be i
j 11 notified within 15 minutes (an extremely conservative
] 12 estimate).
1 i 13 Q.34 Why do you consider 80% to be conservative?
I ( 14 A.34 (DMS): I consider 80% to be an extremely i
15 conservative estimate for several related reasons. First, j 16 while nu=bers vary from emergency to emergency, 30% is a very
! 17 conservative estimate of the number of people formally alerted i
j 18 who would engago in the informal notification of others. For
! 19 example, in the 1981 Mt. Saint Helens emergency (see M. Lindell l 20 et al., Planning Concepts and Decision Criteria for Sheltering 21 and Evacuation in a Nuclear Power Plant Emergency, Washington, f
22 D.C.: Atomic Industrial Forum, 1985, p. 5-16), 30% of the
, 23 total population had direct notification of the emergency and
- 24 they alerted an additional 38% of the total population within 1
l 25 l 26 ; O 1
. l
() 1 15 minutes. These data suggest that a 126% multiplier operated 2 in that emergency for informal notification in the first 15 1
3 minutes. And, in the 1972 Rapid City, South Dakota flood, 4 which occurred at night when many people were asleep, 75% of 5 the population receiving a first warning or alert responded by 6 engaging in additional communication; over half of these (some 7 40%) engaged in activities that would translate into informal 8 notification.
9 Second, my computation assumed that households initiating 10 informal notification would do so only once, with one other l
11 household. This would be the case for some, but would not be 12 the case for all those initiating informal notification, as i
13 demonstrated in the Mt. Saint Helens emergency (where 30% of 14 the population alerted another 38% of the population).
15 Third, my computation assumed that persons notified 16 informally would not themselves engage in initiating informal 17 notification of others.
j 18 Finally, the 80% estimate did not take into account the j 19 proportion of the population that would be " alerted" or 20 awakened by all the activity associated with, for example, an 21 evacuation.
22 I am therefore confident that 80% is a very conservative 23 estimate of the number of households that would be alerted in 24 the first 15 minutes of sounding the sirens because of a night
- 25 time emergency at Harris.
- 26 l
j
) !
i l
l
() 1 Q.35 How did you compute your 30 minute estimate based on 2 the natural rate of informal / indirect notification for the 3 Harris EPZ, and why do you believe it to be conservative?
4 A.35 (DSM): I used the same procedures and assumptions 5 used in estimating informal notification for the 15 minute 6 period -- that is, that 30% of those alerted (now 80% of the 7 EPZ households) would engage in informal notification and that 8 20% of the time they would contact a non-alerted household.
9 Thus, .30 x .80, or 24% of the alerted population would alert 10 .24 x .20, or another 5% of the population. This estimate of a
11 85% is conservative for essentially the same reasons as was the 12 80% estimate for the first 15 minutes.
13 Q.36 Do you have any additional comments concerning these 14 estimates of the natural rate of informal / indirect 15 notification?
16 A.36 (DSM): Yes. I want to emphasize that these
+
17 estimates are likely to be the lower end of a range of 18 estimates that could be reasonably produced. The estimates 19 would undoubtedly have been higher if I were able to quantify i
i 20 and include relevant excluded factors, such as the proportion 21 of those initiating informal notification who would do so with 22 more than one other household, and other excluded factors I 23 have discussed.
)
24
- 25 O
(} l Q.37 What is a " facilitated" rate of informal / indirect 2 notification, and what is your estimate of it for the Harris 3 plant?
4 A.37 (DSM): The purpose of emergency planning is to take j 5 steps in advance of an emergency to facilitate a better 1
l 6 response than would occur naturally without plans. It would be 7 quite possible to increase the natural rate of 8 informal / indirect notification in an emergency at the Harris I 9 plant by recognizing that such notification occurs naturally, l 10 and taking steps to increase its occurrence. The number of 11 people who engage in the informal / indirect notification of 12 others could be increased by simply incorporating into 1
] 13 emergency broadcast system (EBS) messages some simple words to
() 14 the effect that "if your neighbors' house is dark, wake them."
15 The estimates I developed lead me to conclude that some 88% of 16 the total population would be alerted in the first 15 minutes, l 17 and that some 95% of the total population would be alerted l
l 18 within the first 30 minutes. Like my estimates cf the natural 19 rate of informal / indirect notification, these estimates are
]
! 20 also conservative; actual facilitated rates of I
! 21 informal / indirect notification can be expected to be higher.
} 22 Q.38 How did you compute these 15 and 30 minute estimates
! 23 based on the " facilitated" rate of informal / indirect i
24 notification for the Harris EPZ, and why do you believe them to
~
! 25 be conservative?
, 26 I
l l
1
I l
l
', 1 A.38 (DSM): I performed the calculations in the same way I m-2 as for estimates based on the natural rate of informal / indirect 3 notification, with one exception. The exception was that I 4 used an 80% rate, rather than a 30% rate, for persons formally 5 alerted who would engage in informal / indirect notification.
6 Let me explain the calculations, and then explain why I believe 7 an 80% or higher participation rate in informal notification 8 would occur based on an addition to the EBS messages such as I 9 discussed.
10 I computed the 15 minute notification estimate of 88% by 11 adding the 72% of the population formally alerted to the 16%
12 that I estimated would be alerted informally. The 16%
13 informal / indirect notification estimate was arrived at by a
\_) 14 multiplying the 80% participation rate by the 72% formally 15 notified; this produced an estimate of 57% of the population of 16 households engaged in initiating informal notification. This 17 57% of the population would successfully alert a non-alerted 18 household 28% of the time (72% of the time an already alerted 19 household would be contacted); thus, 57% of the 28% success 20 rate indicated that 16% more of the population would be 21 alerted.
22 The 30 minute estimate was computed on the same basis and 23 in the same way: 80% of a now 88% alerted population suggests 24 a 70.4% estimate attempting informal / indirect notification.
25 s 26 i C '\
e
l l
1 l
() 1 This 70.4% would successfully contact a non-alerted household 2 12% of the time, indicating an 8.5% increase in the whole 3 population alerted through informal / indirect notification in 4 the second 15 minute time interval. This indicates that about 5 95% of the population would be notified in the first 30 ll 6 minutes. These estimates based on " facilitated"
- 7 informal / indirect notification likely underestimate s
8 notification for the same reasons that I consider the " natural" 9 informal / indirect notification estimates to be conservative.
10 The obvious question, however, is why it is safe to assume 11 30% versus 30% participation in informal / indirect notification 12 because of the addition of a simple instruction in the EBS t
13 message. Social science investigations of how and why people j 14 respond as they do to emergency information and warnings 15 estdblish that the key determinant of public response to 1
3 16 warnings is the emergency information that the public receives.
17 History is filled with examples of emergencies in which public
- 18 emergency information was poor, and in which public response to l 19 that emergency was inappropriate. History also documents many 1
20 emergencies in which good emergency public information 21 facilitated timely and appropriate public response. Most 22 people respond to emergency information based on what they l
23 think is the right thing to do at the time. I am therefore
- 24 confident that emergency public information that points out to 25
! 26 , (
f i
<x 1 people that they may be needed to awaken their neighbors would U
2 engage most of the alerted population in checking to see if 3 their neighbors were awake.
4 Q.39 Will the initial EBS messages for broadcast in the 5 event of a nighttime emergency at Harris include an instruction 6 such as that discussed by Dr. Mileti?
7 A.39 (AHJ): Yes.
8 Q.40 Are there any other means by which public 9 notification of an emergency is assured?
10 A.40 (AHJ): Following the initial fixed siren and mobile 11 alerting warnings, law enforcement and other official vehicles 12 would be in the area to ensure complete evacuation or other 13 protective action, and to provide security. They will be c
(\f 14 instructed to check premises where no protective action 15 activity is evident.
16 Q.41 Please summarize your testimony.
17 A.41 (DMK): The fixed siren system serves as the primary 18 public alerting system within the Harris EPZ, for both day and 19 night. Activated at night under the conditions postulated by 20 Mr. Eddleman, the fixed siren system can be expected to awaken 21 at least one person in 69% of the sleeping households in the 22 EPZ within 15 minutes. Given that some of the population would 23 already be awake, I have concluded that approximately 72% of 24 the households in the EPZ would be directly alerted by the 25 26 ,
,m
, i
%.__/'
i 1
() 1 fixed siren system under the conditions postulated in the 2 contention.
j 3 (AHJ): Each of the four counties within the EPZ has in i
1 4 place a comprehensive plan for mobile alerting to provide
- 5 additional direct notification to the general public. While 6 the mobile alerting process cannot be completed within 15 7 minutes, it would be well underway within that period. Thus, 8 although the times for completion of mobile alerting would
- 9 range from approximately 20 minutes to 45 minutes (depending on 1
10 the EPZ subsone), many households would be covered by the -
i 1 11 mobile alerting system within 15 minutes.
- 12 (DSM): In addition, emergency public warnings elicit i 13 communications between members of the public who are the target l
O 14 of official emergency warnings. People rarely translate
- 15 warnings into personal protective actions without first seeking i
l 16 and engaging in confirmatory communication; rather, people draw i
l 17 into groups, and consult with and warn others. These phenomena i 18 are natural, predictable responses to emergency warnings, and 19 can be relied upon in emergency planning as a component of 20 public notification in the event of an actual emergency.
- 21 Moreover, the generally high level of activity associated with i
! 22 an emergency alerts members of the general public, even if they 23 are not directly warned by either the official warning systems, 9
24 or by another member of the public. I am confident that these l 25 26 l f
l l
^
1 4
() 1 general principles of emergency warning /public response -- well 2 established through decades of research and investigation --
3 would be applicable in the event of an emergency at the Harris 4 plant. These naturally occurring phenomena can be 5 conservatively expected to provide notification within about 15 6 minutes to an estimated additional 8 to 10% of the households 7 in the EPZ (beyond those receiving direct notification of an 8 emergency). This estimate can be expected to double if the 9 informal / indirect notification process is facilitated through 10 the ESS system as the State has described.
11 (DNK, DSM, AHJ): The alert / notification system for the 12 Harris EPZ thus provides the capability to essentially complete 13 the initial notification of the public within about 15 minutes.
14 ____.
15 ' !
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 O - -- - -- _ -- - -- - _ _
9 Attachment 1 DAVID N. KEAST Education B.A. Amherst College, 1952 B.S., M.S. Electrical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1954 Summary of Experience Mr. Kaast is a specialist in acoustics, and brings over 30 years of experience in the field to RMM. His work has included research on the propagation of sound out-of-doors; study of the acoustic and vibration environment of silo-launched missiles; design, development and analyses of advanced instrumentation; computer programming for acoustic applications; and environ-mental noise control. In the last 5 years, Mr. Kaast has been extensively involved with the design and analyses of public warning systems using sirens.
Professional Experience 1983 - EMM Associates, Vice President and
(]) Present Project Manager.
Mr. Keast directs environmental noise and public warning-system studies at RMM Associates. Recent experience includes the following:
- Preparation of FEMA-43 Reports for the Turkey Point, St. Lucie, Crystal River, Hatch, Pilgrim, Seabrook and Perry nuclear plants.
Design of the public alerting system for New Hampshire Yankee's Seabrook Station.
Background noise studies for the Maine Yankee nuclear plant.
Instructor for Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories' Emergency Planning Workshop.
1973-1983 Bolt Beranek and Newman, Inc. Manager, Environmental Technologies Department. -
For the Defense Civil Preparedness Agency (a FEMA predecessor), Mr. Keast prepared BBN Report'4100 and CPG l-17, both referenced O in Appendix 3 of NUREG-0654/ FEMA REP-1.
is the principal author of NUREG/CR-2654 He
" Procedures for Analyzing the Effectiveness t.
- ' )
i i
Page 2 ;
DAVID N. KEAST O of Siren Systems for Alerting the Public."
He supervised the design of the public j
{
alerting systems for the Susquehanna, (
- Millstone, Connecticut Yankee and Perry l Power plant sites. For Battelle Laboratories,
' he evaluated the systems at Trojan, Zion, TMI and Indian Point.
l 1
While consulting for Northeast Utilities, Mr.
Kaast assisted in EEI's review and commentary on FEMA's Draft " Guide for the Evaluation of l Alert and Notification Systems for Nuclear
.i Power Plants."
I Mr. Keast's other activities involved 4
management of major projects evaluating the l
j environmental impacts of industrial and power l Plants, and of high-voltage power trans- l mission lines. He has also been active in i
applications of acoustics to building energy 2
conservation.
1971-1973 M.F.E. Corporation, Salem, NH. Vice
' President of Engineering.
At M.F.E. Corporation, Mr. Keast was l responsible for design, engineering, l manufacturing and marketing of i instrumentation.
i 1954-1971 Bolt Beranek and Newman, Inc. Acoustical i
Consultant.
- Mr. Keast spent his first 17 years at BBN l working on projects related to acoustics, l noise control, and the measurement of sound l and vibration.
J i
l
! Professional Registrations / Affiliations l
Acoustical Society of America (Fellow) j Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (Senior Member) .
- Affiliate Member of the Institute of Noise" Control
! Engineering Books l
Measurements in Mechanical Dynamics, McGraw-Hill Book Company, O Inc. , New York, NY (1967).
i i
. , , - ,,.------_v,,..,--..--,n.-,.._-,-..,,..-,--~,~n..-...~.--_,.-._, -.,r_--,,--- --,,----,.,r.n..,
, DAVID N. KEAST Page 3
" Basic Sound Measuring System," Chapter 5 of Noise Reduction, L.L. Beranek, McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., New York, NY (1960).
Brief articles on Sound Measurement Apparatus, Encyclopedia of Science, McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., New York, NY (1960, 1965, 1980).
Technical Papers and Selected Reports:
2 "On the Prediction of the Attenuation of Sound Propagated Over Ground," (with F.M. Wiener), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 29 1953 (1957) (A).
" Instrumentation for the Study of the Propagation of Sound Over Ground," (with F.M. Wiener and K.N. Gof f ) , J. Acoust. Soc. Am.
l 30, pp. 860-966 (1958).
"An Empirical Method for Estimating Wind Profiles Over Open Level Ground," (with F.M. Wiener), Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 39, pp. 858-864 (1958).
" Equipment and Procedures for Field Measurements of Aircraft O Noise and Flight Paths," (wich W.E. Clark and W.J. Galloway),
J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 30, p. 693 (1958) (A).
" Experimental Study of the Propagation of Sound Over Ground,"
(with F.M. Wiener), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 31, pp. 724-733 (1959).
" Calibration of Accelerometers in a Simulated Space Environment," J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 31, pp. 584-587 (1959).
" Acoustic Instrumentation for Measurements in the Minuteman Missile Silo," (G.W. Kamperman), J. Audio Eng. Soc., pp.
180-184 (1960).
l
" Measurement of Rocket Engine Noise," Noise Control 7, pp.
< 25-36 (1961). (Invited paper at the 60th Meeting of the t Acoustical Society of America).
" Acoustical Measurements in the 1/3-Scale Minuteman Missile Silo," 29th Symposium on Shock, Vibration and Associated Environments (November 1960).
"An Analog System for the Analysis of Random Data Signals Up to .
10 Kilocycles," IRE Transactions on Instrumentation, I-II, pp.
52-57 (September 1962).
()
l l
l l . . . - ._ . .
. I DAVID N. KEAST Page 4
" Airborne Vibration Spectrum Analysis: Some Techniques and ,
Limitations," (with J. Gibbons and W.E. Fletcher), 31st l Symposium on Shock, Vibration and Related Environments (October 1962).
" Digital Computer Processing of Telemetered Vibration Dv:a,"
(with W.E. Fletcher and J. Gibbons), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 34, 1962 (A).
" Noise and Vibration Characteristics of Large Solid Rocket Motors with Thrust Vector Control," (with P.A. Franken and D.E. Newborough), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. (1964) (A).
"Some Studies of Titan II Noise and Vibration Data," (with P.A. Franken), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. (1965) (A).
" Analog Versus Digital Data Analysis: An Introduction," SAE Paper 650818 presented at the SAE National Aeronautics and Space Engineering and Manufacturing Meeting.in Los Angeles (October 1965).
"A Survey of Graphic Input Devices," Machine Design (August 1967).
( "The Noise Environment of the California Condor," BBN Report 1259 (October 1965).
" Summer Acoustic Environment of the Jamesport and Shoreham Sites," BBN Report 2656 (October 1973).
"Some Pitfalls of Community Noise Measurement," J. Air Pollution Control Assoc. 25(1), pp. 36-39 (January 1975).
" Ambient Noise Studies in Suburban and Rural Areas," (with E.W. Wood and J.D. Barnes); invited paper presented at InterNoise '74, Washington, DC (September 1974).
"An Instrument for Automated Community Noise Monitoring," (with B.E. Blanchard); invited paper presented at InterNoise '74, Washington, DC (September 1974).
" Development of a Procedure for Predicting Noise Environments Around Industrial Sites," BBN Report 2987 (September 1974).
" Audible Noise and Its Effects from Proposed Pannell-Volney 765 kV Transmission Line," BBN Report 3514 (March 1977). .
" Regulatory Aspects of Audible Noise from ENV/UHV Transmission Lines," an invited paper before the IEEE, PEG meeting in South
! O Bend, Indiana (September 1977).
i P
Page 5
(} , DAVID N. KEAST
" Attenuation of Northern Dwellings to a Linear Source of l
Noise," (with D.A. Driscoll and J.P. Dulin, Jr.), J. Acoust.
Soc. Am. 63 Supp 1, (A) May 1978).
i " Assessing the Impact of Audible Noise from AC Transmission Lines: A Proposed Method," paper F79237-9 presented at IEEE Winter Power Meeting, New York, NY (February 6, 1979).
. " Energy Conservation and Noise Control in Residences," a paper j , presented at Noisexpo '79, Chicago, April 1979, and reprinted in S/V Sound and Vibration, p. 18-22, July 1979.
" Acoustic Location of Air-Infiltration Openings in Buildings,"
invited paper presented at InterNoise '79, Warsaw, September 1979.
"The Use of Sound to Locate Infiltration Openings in Buildings," Proceedings of the ASHRAE/ DOE-ORNL Conference on '
- Thermal Performance of Excerior Envelopes of Buildings, ASHRAE SP 28, pp. 85, 1981.
" Electrical Substation Design Practice in the United States and 2
Its Influence on Transformer Noise in Surrounding Communities,"
l Proc. InterNoise '81, pp. 627, 1981.
1 .
+
I 1
l ! .
i i
l O t
,s.--, ,, ,.-,.,,n.- . , - - - - . . -, -., -. , - ,
v---,--,--- e - - . - , , - - e.~,n.- -+-
l' l
- t. Attachment 2 STAID 5M OF FSOFESSIONAL QUALIFICAIINS ALVIN H. JOYNER O DIVISION OF DDGECY .WAGDCNT NC IEPAKW.EI CF CRIME CCNGOL & PUBLIC SArr.if 1
l PENESSIG4AL EEPERIENCE Emeraency Management Planner I. North Carolina Deoartment of Crime Control and Public Safety. October 1983 - Fresent.
l Principle planner for emergency response to nuclear accidents within the State of North Carolina. Specific responsibilities involve developing State policy and plans concerning emergency response to nuclear power olant emergencies, providing guidance to state and local government officials and other public anad private agencies in the preparation of emergency response plans to ensure accuracy and compatibility with State and Federal plans, provide consultation and guidance to nuclear utility management to ensure full availability of resources and cohesiveess of emergency response plans. Support the State Emergency Response Team (SERT) when a disaster or threat of a disaster is present.
Plans. Operations, and Military Support Officer, The Adiutant General's Office,
! State of North Carolina. January 1983 - October 1983. -
I Principle staff officer for emergency planning within the North Carolina National tu etas ==d 9"c=tas t===
- O ou rd- $9 et5t= t 9=a idtttet inv=tv d 4 v t=9 t=s operation a variety of contingency plans for such emergencies as natural disasters, civil disturbances, land special security missions, nuclear attack, or alert and mobilization of National Guard units for State or Federal emergencies. Functioned as the State Director of Security, responsible for the direction and i=plementation of physical, communications, information, and automatic data processing security programs.
t j Administrative Officer, North Carolina National Guard. September 1978 - January T983.
l Fulltime executive assistant to the Commander of a General Officer Command of one Artillery Brigade, one Support Group of four separate battalions with a troop population of 3,677. Coordinated the day-to-day administration, fiscal and budget j matters, logistics, maintenance, military law, military and tecenician personnel, '
. pay, public and community relations, recruiting plans and programs, training and !
manatorial functions. Supervised 130 employees, including supervisors in civil serv:.ce (GS) grades 4 through 11 engaged in per~sonnel, training, supply,
- maintenance, and administration. Coordinated the preparation of domestic emergency and military support for contingency and operational pies for the command.
Administrative Officer, North Carolina Army National Cuard. December 1972'-
September 1975.
Fulltime executive assistant to the Commander of a North Carolina Army National Guard separate Support Group of four attached battalions and one separate company representing a troop population of 2,685. Coordinated the day-to-day administration, fiscal, and budget matters, logistics, maintenance, military law, 1
1 military and technician personnel, pay, public and coc= unity rela:Coordinated ions, recruiting the training, and managerial functions.
plans and pro rams, domestic emergency and military support for contingency and preparation o operational plans for the command.
Administrative Officer, North Carolina Army National Guard. March 1961 -
0=="-z 1972.
Fulltime executive assistant to the Commander of a Divisional Medical Ba Coordinated the day-to-day administration, training, supply, and maintenance Recruiting plans ad programs for the professional activities lement.
within the command. Exercised supervision over one (1) operations and trainin 9, one (1) staff supply assistant GS-07, one (1) administrative specialist GS-07, four (4) administrative and supply (technicians GS-07, one (1) orga maintenance shop chief W,-12 and three 3) general mechanics.
Power Plant Operator, E.I. DuPont De Nemours company. January 1953 - March 1961.
Power Plant auxiliary operator within an industrial plant utilizing fossil fuel.
Soecific responsibilities included operation of turbine condensers for planc electric generators, primary refrigeration machinae for the entire plant, operation of power plant production of compressed air and analysis and treatment of all'-
conditioned water for both human and industrial purposes.
O ==n.
YR CmPL COURSE g 1961 Medical Service Corps Officer Medical Field Service School Orientation Army Medical Department Officer Medical Field Service School 1967 Advance Ca:xnand & Gaceral Staff Officer Cmnand & General Staff 1971 College (Honor Grad) US Civil Service Cocinission 1973 Introduction to Supervision F.cgineer officer Orientation Engineer School 1974 National Guard Personnel US Civil Service Coaznission 1974 Management bgistics Management Orientation US Army Logistics Management 1976 Cancer US Army Ordance School 1977 Ordance Officer Advance Naticaal Defense University 1978 National Security Management Role of the Manager in EED US Civil Service Connission 1978 Management Awareness Officer NC State Personnel ,
1978 US Army Logistics Management ;
1979 Installation Management '
l Cancer 1979 Middle Management US Office of Personnel .
Management 1980 Netotiating Labor Agreements US Office of Personnel Meagement O 1980 Administrative Officer Labor Relations Supervision NG Profession Education Can.
US Office of Personnel 1982 for Managers Managenent 2
4 Industrial Facilities Protecticn US Defense Indust. Security
- 1982
' Inst.
3asic Disa.ter operations Cou=se Energency Management Inst.
O 3982 (M!2%)
L5 Army insistics Panagement I
1982 Assoc. Logistics F.xecutive Develognet Center Classification Management for National Guard Bureau 1983 Managers Search and Rescue Management US Air Force' Rescue 1983 Seminar Coordination Center 1984 Managing the Search Function Nacional Assoc. for Search
& Instructor Workshop and Rescue 3asic Nuclear Power Concept Tennessee Valley Authority 1984 Course Federal Radiological Emergency anergency Fanagment 1985 Response Plan Workshop Institute (HMA)
SGNWY My professional career has been almost antirely in the military. I retired frem fulltime duty with the North Carolina National Cuard as a Lieutenant Colonel (GS-
- 12) in October 1983. During that career my responsibilities have been almost entirely devoted to planning anad training to support the National Guard in its military role both to the Nation and the State. I am an honor graduate of the Ar=y's coveted Command and Staff College and complaced numerous other military' courses directly related to plans and operations.
O O
3
)
t Attactraent 3 O
i ACADEMIO VITA 0F CENNIS S. MILETI !
May, 1985 DEosCNAL Cf.f.ica: ..
Hazards Assessment Lasoratory Copartment of Soctoicgy Colorado State University Aylesworth Hall Fort Collins, Coloraco 80523 Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorade 80523 F.s;::a:
1120 Monaco Parkway, Conver, Colorado 80220 EUC4**0N University of Colorado, Soulder: PhD, Soctology, 197a California State University, Los Anceles: MA, Sociology,1971 University of Caltfernia, Los Angeles: SA, Sociology, 1968 SPiciat!?tTicNs Complex Crganizations, App 1ted (Hazarcs and Policyl, Methods ApeoryTugyTS 1974-date F acu l ty, Capartment of Sociology, Colorado State Uni-versity, Fort Collins (1985-dats, Professor; 1978-1985, Associate Professor; 197a-1978 Assistant Professor).
1984-date Of rector, Hazarcs Assessment Lacoratory, Coloraco State O- University, Fort Col l ins.
1981-year Pol icy Analyst, Seismte Safety Commission, State of Cat t fernia, Sacramento (on leave f rom university).
1978-1979 !av1:ec Instructor, American Association for tne Acvan-cement of Science, Chautauqua Shor: Course Prograe.
1973 year Visiting Assistant Professor, University of Scatnern Cal t fernia, Gradua e Scacol of Puci te Acministration, Intensive Seminar Program.
1971-1972 Instructor, Department of Soctoicgy, University of Colorado, Soulder.
swaRos 1983-1984 Alumni Menor Faculty Award, Coloraco State University Alumnt Association for axcellenes in teacntng, researen and service 1981-year Cited in cutstanding Young Men of America 1978-1977 Cited for excellence in teaching, researen and servtce my the Dean, College of Arts, Humantttes anc Sectal Sciences .
MEMBEosH!ss American Sociological Asscetation, International Sociological Associa-tion, Pacif te Soctological Association, Midwest Sectological Sectety, .
American Association for the Advancement of Science, Earthquake Eng t-neering Pesearen Institute, Western Social Science Assectation, Natto-nal Cooretnating Council on Emergency Management, Sigma Xt.
s 1
1
O cE9EAcCH GPANTS % C#N'o}CT S.
1984-1985 Principal Investigator, " Assessment of Human Stress
!spects fecm the Livingsten Train Cera11 ment anc Chemi-cal Emergency," contract for Illinois Central Gul f Railroad.
1984-date Asscciate Investigator, " State-of-tne-Art Assessment:
Evacuation," subcontract fecm Cak Ridge National Lab-oratories for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
1984-date Associate Investigator, " International Stucy of 01sas-ter Impact on Comestic Assets," subcentract f rom th.
University of Georgia for the National Science Fcunda-1 tien.
1983-1984 Princt;al !nvestigator, "Research and Applications for Emergency Preparecness," contract for Long Island Lig-4 hting Company.
1983-1984 Principal Investigator, "Intenced and Forgotten Audien-
' ces for Emergency Warnings," quick-response grant feca the Natural Hazarcs Research Appl 1 cations and Informa-tien Center.
1982-1983 Associate Investigator, " Organizational Interf ace for Nuclear Reactor Emergency Preparedness," subcontract from Oak Ridge National Laboratories for tne Nuclear Fogulatory Ccmmission.
1981 year Principal Investigator, "Nucl ear Ha:ard Warnings and p
1 Emergency Evacuation Preparedness," contract for Fact-v fic Gas anc Electric Company.
198C-1983 Principal Investigator, " Local Land Use Perl-tcy Coct-siens," Colorado State University Experiment Station.
1979-1982 Principal Investigator, "Senavioral Aspects of tne Three Mile Isl anc Incicent anc Re-start," contract for j
General Puelic Utilities via Shaw, Pittman, ?ctts anc Trowe ridge. .
1977-1980 Principal :nvestigator, " Migration Impacts of Non-metropolitan Areas in :ne West," Colorado State Univer-sity Experiment Station.
1977-1979 Principal Investigator, "Acoption and Organt:stional Implementation of Solicy f or Land Use Regul ations,"
grant from the National Science Founcation.
1975-1977 Coprincipal Investigator, Scciceconomic, Organizational anc Political Ccnsequences of Earthquake Preciction,"
grant from the National Science Fcundation.
1972-1974 Researen Sociologist, " Assessment of Research on Natu-cal Hazards," grant frem the National Science F0unda-tion. .
C".J4s m EE VEveEaswi=5 1984-1987 National Academy of Science, National Research Council,
~
Ccmmission on Engineering and Technical Systems, Cent- .
! mittee on Natural Disasters.
1984-1986 National Academy of Sciences, National Researen Coun-cil, Connission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, anc Fesources, Soard on Earth Sciences, Subcommittee on j Earthquake Research.
- 1984-d ate National Institute of Mental Health, Public Healtn l
Service, Center for Mental Health Studies of Emergen-2 1 - , . - - - . . - . _. --
I O cies, Advisory.
1983-year National Science Founcation, U.S. Col egate on Ear-taquake Preciction Research to Japan, International i Scientific Excnange Section.
1983-date Front Range Consortium on Na'tural Hazarcs Studies, Coloraco State Universt y, University of Coloraco, University of Conver.
1983-cate International Sociological Association, Researen Ccm mittee on otsasters.
1982-1983 Pacif te Scciological Association, Nominations Committee for ne Stancing Committees for 1983.
1982-date Earthquake Engineering Researen Institute, Chair, Ccm mittee on Social Science Researen, Berkeley, 1981-1983 U.S. Copartment of :ne Interter, Geological Survey, Acvisory Panel on the Eartnquake Stuctos Program.
1981-1982 Pacific Sociological Association, Program Committee for the 1982 Annual Meetings in San Diego.
1981-1982 Governor's Emergency Task Force on Earthquakes Threat and Reconstruction Ccmmittees. State of Cat t forn1a, Sacremento.
1980-1981 Governor's $ctence and Technology Advisory Council, Committee on :ne Relocation of Urantum Mill Tallings, State. of Colorado.
1979-year American Association for tne Advancement of Sctence, Committee on Intergovernmental Researen anc Cevelopment en Fire Safety anc O tsaster Preparedness, Washington, D.C.
1978-1978 National Academy of Sciences, National Researen Ccun-cil, Ccemtssion on Sectotecnnical Systeers, Committee on Secteeconomic Ef f ects of Earthquake Freciction, Wasn-i ngton, C.C.
l l .
O 3
O
=r_=r*. ArcNs Secks EA werce"a-*s (refereec)
Mileti, Dennis S.
g h g h 3 Oisasters (in progress).
Mileti, Cennis S., John Schneicer anc 0. Stanley Ett:en Gradu ate Rese,-en v.e eds g ng ice
- al Sciences (in progress).
Gillespie, Davic F., anc Cennis S. Mileti 1979 Technostructu res A.cl te-a re an t ratien al Rel at' ens. Lexington.
Massacnusetts: Lexington Socks.
Gillespie, Cavid F., Cennis S. 911ett and Fonald Perry 1976 Or-anient'eral Descen s e *a C' a me ' *e Oc~' u n f tv Sv st a'as Kent, Chic:
,<ent State University Press.
Chae*ers (invited and refereec)
Mileti, Cennis S.
1986 "Research methocs and disaster researen." *n Russell R. Cynes and Cari c Fel anda (Ed s.). Sce'e l eev sf O 's a ste as t Cent-45uticas g sec < el- v -**.u..r o. sea e . Italy: Franco Angeli (forth-coming).
Milett, Cennis S., anc Jonn H. Sorensen 1985 "Why people take precautions against natural hazarcs." *n Neil Weinste in (Ed.). E-eeu -*- 4 -~ *a l ' 2-e t ect ' e n S e a a v i c e (forth-coming).
Sorensen, Jenn H. end Cennis S. Milet' l 1985 "Pretective actions fer natural na arcs: a review of ;regrams to stimul ate ;uclic accption." In Neil Weinstein ( Ed.) . Eaccu r ac ' e f a i s s-et=et4ea : -av ier (fer ncomirg).
Hartscugn, Ccnalc 9., anc Cennis S. '*flett 1985 "Tr.e meci a in C i s asters." ?;. 28-294 in J. L aut e and 5. Nu. p ry
( Ed s.), 2*9sfeceiv es M O f s as t e" Ca'ev e-v. MC F~* a l k , Ocnnecticut:
Appl eten-Centu ry-Cro f ts .
Hutton, Janice, Cennis S. Mile:1 anc John Sorensen 1984 " Factors affecting eartnquake warning system ef fecti v eness." :;.
947-956 i n <. Osh id a (Ec.), E a -t w ee n e :-ec ' et ' c'. Tck yo: Terra Scientific Fuclishers for UNESC".
Milett, Cennis S., Janice Hut cn and Jonn Serensen 1984 " Social f actors af f ecting the respcose of groups to eartn;uake p red iction." Pp. 549-658 in F. Osr ida (Ec.), E a -t aeu a4 + :-ed ie-
- igo
. Tokyo: Terra Scientific Fublisners fcr UNESCC.
Sorensen, Jonn, Janice Hut cn and Cennis S. Vileti 1984 " Institutional management of risk info.rmation following ear-thqu ak e p red ictions." Pp. 913-924 in K. Oshica (Ed.), Earther ake 8-ediction. Tokyo: Terra Scientific Publishers for UNESCC.
Mutton, Janice, John Sorensen and Cennis S. Mileti 198L " Earthquake prediction and puolic reaction." .:p. 129-156 in T. -
Rik i tak e (Ed.). Co --ent Casaa ren h E a-t*cu aw e 2-ee f
- 4 e'. Sos-ton: Reidel Fuc11snirg Company, Tokyo: Center for Acacemic . us li-p cations.
U 4
l O vileti, Dennis S.
1981 "Pl anning initiativ es for seismic nazare mitiga:f en." Pp. 44-53 in J. Isenberg (Ed.). See f al 111 Eceac'ie *-cact 2.'. E!-t-cu+kes na Utilftv L*'aliaes. New Ycrx: Arr.erican $cciety of Civil Engi-neers.
vence-aars gag chaeters (quasi-refereec)
Milett, ")ennis S., and Joanne Nig; 1985 " Social science eartnquake investigations." In Roger Schot t (Ed.). L es s e"s le a raed f 22 Decent f a-incu akes. Serkel ey: Ear-thquake Engineering Pesearen Institute (forthccming).
Review Panel of the National Eartnquake Hazar:s Feduction Plan 1984 Ne++e-a1 = a-escu ak a uara-es me euetien_ 2-ec-==? :12,g h m-eg-=-
2.1,A::, Washington, C.C.: Feceral Emergency Management Agency.
Scrensen, J., E. Cepennaver, C. Milett and M. Adler 1984 crean<ratie-a1 Ster' ace b :eae e :-e -anev 21aaning ggg h
.2211 dasnington, D.C.: U.S. Nucl ear Regul atory Commission, NUREG No. CR-3522 Mile:1, Oennis S.
1982 "A oislicgrapny for graduate research methods." F;. 249-255 in Russel Schutt, Alan Crenstein anc Thecccre C. Wagenaar (Eds.).
cesea-c= Vetaef s Ceu-sesi Sv11a5 4 A s s '- *-en t s 121 P re ' ec
- s.
- asnington, O.C.: Merican Socioicgical Asscciation.
Milett, Cennis S., Janice Hutton anc Jonn Scrensen 1981 2 = -t a eu a< e :-ad i ct ic a Descense r.10e* 4 e-s '2 ub l ic Po l f ev.
Pcu l cer: :nstitute Of 5ehavicral Science, Venegrapn 28.
Santc;olo, Frank, anc Cennis S. Mileti 1980 *--'"-* -' :- T**'**
^
w t * '" 2--#cuit2-*I I2'tP!de 02~~'It " 8' For- Ccl i t s: Oclerado State Univers t:y Esperimen: Sta:icn Sul l e-tin.
Cecint**ee on Fire Safety and Of saster Preparecness 1979 **-a tas +v g;1 Ofsaster 2-aaared-ass. Washing;cn, C.C.: Arneric an
, Asscciation for ne Acvancecent of Science.
! Occmit ae en Socicecencroic Effects cf Eartnquake Frediction l 1978 1 3--e-=v m! c'ue*as 21 ~~a % *-a--a"-*~ ==" s ~' == -~~ >'<a l 2-ed d et f e a. Wasningtor. 0.0.: National Acacemie of Sciences-National Fesearen Ocuncil.
911ett, Oennis, S., :ncrnas E. Oracex anc J. Eugene -aas 1975 E:m:aa !vstems b : era-e ca v ' -e--en s e i Ecciolee'eal 2- sea"-
- tut. Bou l d er: Institute of Senav toral Science, Menograpn 21.
Mileti, Dennis S.
1975 Naturat warare wa a'ae sys-a-. *--auni ted States. Scul eer:
c Institute of Senavioral Science, venograpn 12. Pertions reprin-l ted in Joseph Ferry anc Merec t n Pugir, f el l ecti v e :eh av ie r?
Reinense 12 Stress. 1978.
Erickson, Neil, Jonn Sorensen and Dennis S. Mileti 1975 L aad s l ide w a r a rd s la *!:.t u n i t ed S t a t e s icesea-ch As ses seen t. -
Ecu l cer: Institute cf Senavicral Science.
l Mileti, Cennis S.
l 1975 0'sas-=- := iia' =ad Sahaailf*=**en h .;g United Sutes. Sculcer:
(3 :nstitute of Senavioral Science.
O Ayre, Robert, Cennis S. Mileti and Patricia Trainer n - cuan aa- -
auaa-5 warards u 1::.g United Sta*=st i Seseare.'
1975 assess ert. Scu l c er: :nstitute of Behavioral Science.
5
O Jcuraal A *ielest O f s e ' e t i r e .:.;;;;;.5. ( re f e reec )
Milett, Dennis S., and Oavid F. Gillespie 1985 "The ef fects of legitimacy on goal change anc formalizat'en in organi zations," leu -aal 2.f. Ceac e*ce r a rv ' Ecc i c l eev (accepte anc forthccming).
Milett, Cennis S.
1985 "The human equation in earthquake precicticn and warning," 2el'ev Stud'es 3ev'aw (accepted anc forthecming).
Milett, Cennis S., Donalc Hartsough, Patti Macson and Fick Hufnagel 1984 "The Three Mile Island incident: a stucy of ::enavicral incicators of human stress." 'f,A11 -ergeme'es A:11 O'sas*ers 2(1):39-111 Milett, Cennis S.
1983 " Societal ccmparisons of ceganizational response tc earthquake prectetton: J a p an v s n e t.n i tec S t a te s." 1111 :-e rc e n c i e s A,a ;;,
0*saste-s 1(3):399-414 Gillespie, Cavic F., anc Cennis S. Mileti 1982 "O f f ferentiatten in cesan t:ations," feed al caces 50(4):1172-1175.
Mileti, Cennis S.
19' " Structure and process in *.ne implementatien of puclic policy,"
me11tica? feieace == view 21(i):1-34 Mileti, Cennis S.
^ 1982 "A rev iew of researen on pu:l ic ;olicy ace;; ion," mei te .2e*** *s-
--aci ne :av 'ev (accepted and fo rt: ccmi ng).
Nileti, :ennis S., cug Timmer anc David F. Gfiles;;te 1982 " Intra anc interorganizational deter :inar .s of cecen rai t:atien,"
mac i s,e ser <a - *- 31 mev<ew 2S(2):153-153.
Mileti, Oennis S., ;avic ?. Gillespie anc Stan Sit:en 1981 "The multicimensionality of crganizaticnal s i ze," s,ce ' e ' civ 101 seedal :esearca 5$(4):40C-414 Gillescie, Davic F., and Cennis S. Mileti 1981 "we ercsenecus sam;1es in organi:aticsal researca," Ece'elecicai v..-rr. ,,- :....-* 9(3):327-388.
Mile:1, Cennis S.
1980 "uuman acjustment to the risk of environmental extremes," Ece ' e-M A::1 Secial mesearca 54(3):327-347.
Gilles;te, Oavid F., anc Cennis S. Mileti
- .980 "0eterminants of planning in organt:ations," 2e f aist-a-* v e h sac.g Review 10(3):21-32.
- Mileti, Cennis S., and David F. Gillespie 1980 "Organt
- attenal and technoicgical intercepencercies,"
- e-a a' .f.
cent--cerarv See f el eev 17(3-4): 132 '.58.
Gillespie, Davic F., Fonald Ferry and Cennis S. Mileti 1980 " Stress anc transfo rmation," J e u r e al 2f. Se c
- al cesea-ci 21(2):139-147.
Mileti, Dennis S., David F. Gillespie and Stan Eft:en .
I 1979 " Structure anc decision making in corprate organizations," ?ce'e-lag.y.1::a see'11 cesearea 53(4):723-744 Gillespie, David F., anc Cennis S. Mileti p)s
( 1979 " Action anc contingency postulates in organizatten-environment rel ations," 5:,; A :e1 atiens 32(3):251-271.
6
f^
b Mileti, Dennis S., Davic F. Gillespie anc Elizametn Morrissey 1978 " Technology and organizations: metnocolegical :sf'ciencies and l ucunae," Tae ae l eev Ang cu t tu e 19(* ):a3-92.
. Gillespie, Davic F., anc Cennis S. Milett .
1978 " Organizational tecnnology anc env ircoment acaptation-manipul a-tion," Sectt'sn Jeuraal gi Sce'eleev 2(2):205-219. '
Mileti, Cennis S., David F. Gillespie anc J. Eugene Haas 1977 " Size anc structure in compl ex organ t:ations," See v at re-ees 56(1):208-217.
Gillespie, Davic F., anc Cennis S. Milett 1977 " Technology and the stucy of erganizations: an overview and appraisal," acade-v d v aagereat a Deview 2(1):6-19. Reprintec in Ocadings an m v aa aee-s V as age. Engl ewood Cl i f f s, New J ersey:
Prentice Hal l,1982.
Milett, Dennis S., anc Cavic F. Gillespie 1976 "An integrated formalization of organization-environment interce-pendencies," bnaa :e1 ations 29(1):20-100.
Gillesoie, Davic F., anc Cennis S. Milett 1976 " Organizational adaptations to enanging cultural contingencies,"
seeiele;<ca! I-cu i -v 46(2):135-141.
G111essie, Davic F., Roy Lotz, Cennis S. Milett and Renaic Perry 1976 " Historical anc paracismatic cifferences in the use of the goal concept," Eateraat'enal Dev'ew sf. Histerv Aca Dolitical Science 8(30):1-14 Gillespie, Cavic F., anc Cennis S. Milett O' 1976 "A refinec mccel of cif ferentiation in organizations," See f e l egv and seciat R e s e a -e
- 60(3):263-278.
Perry, Penalc, Cavic F. Gillespie, Roy Lot: and Dennis S. Milett 1976 "Attitucinal variaoles as estimates of cenavior," ru -erean is. -
cal 21 icedal "sve-elegy 6(1):74-90.
Mileti, Cennis S., Renaic Perry anc Cavic .:. Gillespie 1975 "The analytical use of case stucy materials in the stucy of organi:ations," ice'eleeical I-cui v 45(4):72-50.
Mile 1, Cennis S., anc E1 coc M. Secx 1975 "Exp l ain ing evacu ation symco l icall y: comunication in crisis,"
Cw unicatien :esea-en 2(1):24-49.
Gillescie, Cavic F., Renalc Perry, Cennis S. Milett and Roy Lot:
1975 " Organizational tensions anc cecentrali zation: the interac-t ve ef fect en memo er ceccit. ert," :ntera eteral Jou rnal 21 Gecus Tensions 5(2):26-37.
Perry, Ronald, David F. Gillespie and Cennis S. Mileti
[ 1974 " Collective stress anc comunity transformation," Sran c1 e ??'cas 27(8):767-788.
Milett, Dennis S. .
1974 " Change ratics in age-specific percent centriductions to fertil-ity: a new method with applications to the 1lnited States," h if.fg Seef elegiq31 Daview 17(1):3-26. First Prize, stucent paper competition, Facific Sociological Associaf.icn, 1974 .
Mileti, Cennis S., and David F. Gillespie 1974 "An integrative approach to tne stucy of organizational echncl-cgy, structure anc cehavice," Cu--eat Seefelegv 23(1):139-20C, O Gillespie, Davic F., anc Cennis S. Mileti 1974 " System stessa and the persistence of emergent organizattens,"
?ccioleedeal !acu i rv 44(2):111-119.
7
l O
v Mileti, Dennis S., and Larry Earnett 1972 "Nine demcgracnic f acters and their rel attensni; tcwarc acortion l egal t ation," Sec4 11 5'eicev 19(2):43-30.
J eu em al Ar-icles- Acel'ed Eng: 1 (refereec)
Mileti, Cennis S.
1984 " Cole conflict and amandonment in emergency worxers," :-ere.rev uanicament Review 2(1):20-22.
Milett, Cennis S.
1984 " Earthquakes and human ::ehav f or," En e**cu ake sea-ta= 1(1):39-;C$,
M11eti, Cennis S.
1983 "Fuclic percepttcas of seismic hazards and critical f acil ities,"
Bu l l etin sf. m Sei s-ol ee f e a l see<eev gg,a-ersea 72(g);3_;3, Mileti, Cennis S., anc Patricia Harvey 1973 "Correctics for the hur.an factor in tornedo earnings," *
- saster
- eca"eeess 2(Feb ru ary):5-9.
Haas, J. Eugene, anc Cennis S. Mileti 1977 "Socicecencmic and political consequerces of earthquake ;recic-tien," f eu rma l af, m hvsical :Ar.1::, . 25(4):283-293.
Haas, J. Eugene, anc Cennis 3. Mile:1 1977 " Earthquake predicticn and its consequences," C a1 "erai t Geel eev 30(7):147-137,-1977. Revised and reprinted in laa :-anetsee 20(4):60-68, 1973.
Haas, J. Eugene, anc Cennis S. Vilett J 1976 "Eartaquas e prediction anc c ner adjustments to earthqu akes,"
- uilacia g m & Zeal aad Seedeev <-r : = - ~ aw a ra-4-==e'a7 9(4):lE3-194 1g.g1 Reviews (invited and refereec)
Milett, Cennis S.
1984 "A review of Social and Economic Ascects of Earthquakes cy Ear-clay C. Jcnes and Miha Tct a:evic (Eds.). Ithaca: Freg ran i n C c an anc Regicnal Studies, 198 3." tali -. ---a '== 'a' s+s eas (for-thec.? f ng) .
911ett, Cennis S.
1982 "A rev iew of unequal Care: Intercrganiza !cnal Relaticas in Health Care by M. Milner, J r. New York: Cclumcfa University Press,1980." insial Forces 60(3):943-944 Milett, 2ennis S.
1982 "A review of 'rthistle 31cw f eg: Loyalty and Cissent in the Cor;cra-tien by Al an iiestin (Ed.). New Yorx: McGr aw-wi l l , 1981." sce 'e * -
sgy :. A 2 e v ' av 2f. lit.s. See a s 7(2) . ,
.98 ev f ew of 5ftermath: Commun f tf es After Natural Cisasters ey H.
Paul Friesema et al. Severly Hills: Sage Fuelications,1979 anc Af ter the Cl ean-up: Long Range Ef fects of Natural Cisasters cy ,
Jan.es iiright and Feter Fossi et al. Eeverly Hills: Sage Fuclica-tiens, 1979." Jouraal gf, m A~erican :taan<ag assee<atsen (Cc-tecer):484-489.
Mileti, Dennis S.
1976 "A rev f ew of A !cciclogy of Crgant:ations cy J. Elcrf d;e anc l.
Crocc i e. f;ew York: International Fub l teations, 1975." Cent +~ee-rAry 5eeie1e;v 5(6):734 8
i 1
1 i^ l 1
Technical eecr+s (not refereed)
Milett, Cennis S.
1985 Stress Isoaets 21 1 Technelegical merceaev- 2a "-----"siva r a d f e ate r s S tu dv af. ' ' v ' n c 5 t e n IJ".11a C a
- a i 1 *
- a t. Ne w .C i l e a n s :
Lemi e, Kel l ener.
Mileti, Cennis S.
1983 bu:uL2 eseense !cenae'es! Lir. Ea'eree-ent !22.1.1r1112".1 Aa1 ?.afJ i ima l f eat t ens. Sacramento: California Division of Mines anc Ceol-ogy.
Milett, Cennis S.
1982 cr am f eaticaa! 9enav'er Arft Inte-or-an t eaticaal :*1 1tiens?
- 91 f-cations f,2 Nuc l ea r ? ewer :! ant :-erc ancies 101 :-ee a se-es s.
Can Ricge. Tennessee: Cak Ricge National Laceratories.
Milett, Cennis S., Conald M. Hartsough anc Patti Macson 1982 2.1 Ib.22 1.1.1 W Is l an d Inc " eat? ? It!.f y. ai E eh a v i e
- a l I* dice-ars gi $;gia St-ess. Wasnington, C.C.: Shaw, Ffttmar, Fot*s anc Trowe ri cge.
Milett, Cennis'S., anc Artsur Svenson 1981 ra-tNeu n e :-ed i ec ' e n-W a -*
- me :eseens e ;n :-e- caev 0--an s ea-
- 1;:1 ;; ta,a :-ee<ccien 7er-faelegv. Van Nuys: Scuthern Cal ifor-nia Earthquake Prepa?coness Project.
Hutten, Janice, and Cennis S. Milett 1979 A n a i v s i s 2f, a d e r t t e n 12,1 f *e l e-e n t a t f e a 2f.Co--unity Lia,a l.ls a ecu l at' ens itr 1 cede l aias. San Franciscc: Weccwarc-Clyce.
Haas, J. Eugene, anc Cennis S. Milett 1976 ice f eecerca de I-e act 2f, E n-tacu a e : ed ic-4ea 12 Geve---ent, 9ustaes1 1:1 0 er-u n i tv. Ecu l c e r: *nstit.te of Senav ioral Sci-ence.
Mileti, Cennis, !., anc Cavid F. Gillespie 197 5 ! a- a ce r a n i e n t f e a a ! :e l a t i o n s la.f10 e" m - f tv S e v ' e e " e l ' v e -"
Evs e-s. Sou l cer: Center for Action Researer.
- ue 1 *c at + en s la, -eceediags (rct refereec)
Milett, "ennis S.
1980 " Human res; case to earthquake precicti:n." ?p. 36-55 in Wai ter Fays (Ed.). :-eceed1acs af. :: Ccn'a-aar== -a : * - - -" << a : eede-112a Ia#e"at'en. Menlo Parx: U.S. Geol egical Survey. .:::er pre-sented at the January, 1980 Ccnference on Eartnquane Precictico Information, Los Angeles.
Milett, Cennis S., and Janice Hutton 1978 " Social aspects of earthqu ak e s." :p. '.79-192 in :-eceed ' e s li
+ag feeend 7,t e re a t
- e n ti cenfareaca :n u ic-ezer atic .
San tran-cisco: National Science Foundatf or. = aper' presented at the Nover.W
bor,1973 Cor.ference on the State of the Art in Mfero:onat. ice for ~'
Earthquake Hazarcs Fecuction, San .Franciscc.
Milett, Cennis S. ~
1978 "Sccicecenceic effects of earthquake prediction on state policy."
Pp. in :-eceed*nes gf 111 na femaT cenreceme e 11 : . -t ~ eu p e c elated wa r a -e s. Lexington, Kents.ck y ; Council of State Goverr.-
cents. Speecn presente d at *.tv revencer,1977 Conference on Stata l
' Folicy fer Ear *hquake Fredic-icn Techno1cgy, Soulder.
9
v g Eublished Cc-eats (inv'ted er refereec)
Milett, Cennis S.
1984 "The character of traffic in an emergency," Eui t er'- 5(1):4-5.
~
Milett, Dennis S.
1983 "Ot sastercus warntrgs," C22i. (March):24,44,152. j Milett, 0ennis S.
1982 "Hazares reduction acrk: the next era," National war n-es 05 serve-5(4):1-2. Feprintec in Ea rt5cu ake t a 'e r-at ion Buttettn 14(2):50, 1982. ~
M11ett, Cennis S.
1982 "Sociclogical aspects of earthqu sk e p rediction," Ea-tneu ake
- *e-ac
- en ?u i t et 'a 11(3):102-105.
Haas, J. Eugene, anc Cennis S. Milett 1977 " Earthquake prediction response," 7' e (January 24):83.
Milett, Cennis S.
1977 " Earthquake ;redictten: is it cetter cet to know?" Wesaic 8(2):8-14 Milett, Oennis S.
1977 " Social hazards of earthquake p red iction," feieace h 111(2):20-21.
Haas, J. Eugene, Incmas Cracek and Cennis $. Mileti 1975 "Inciv f cual anc crganizational response to threat," u_ful : +-cea-ci.11 1(4):247.
Mileti, Cennis S.
1976 "Soci al scientists anc app i t ed research," h A-e-4can Fec'et-hs s.;.i.11 11(4 ) :220-221.
Milett, ennis S.
1974 "Respceso to research and rationa' needs," cetac es 2(Cete-ter):5.
l -
t d
10
l l
l l
P O
PDCFEEEI? var 2 22S LEE ::EEEN*1-*!NS centerance Pacers Milett, Dennis S., and R. Gary Williams 1985 "A sociological perspective on the siting of hazardous =aste f act i t*.tes," paper presented to tne Social and Ecoremic Effects of Public Perceptiens Session of the Sympostum on Waste Manage-ment, Tucscn: M arch.
Milett, Dennis S., Pick Fufnagel and Davtc Gfilespie 1984 " Regulation of the firm: tcward a theory of consequences," pa:er presented to the Compl ex Organizations Sessfen of the American Sociclogical Assect ation, San Antente: August.
Milett, Cennis S.
1984 " Stress fecm risk uncertainties," inv f ted paper presented to the Social Aspects of Risk Uncertainties Session of the Society for Risk Analyst s, Knowxt ile: Octocer.
Milett, Dennis S.
1984 "Sccial and polit! cal cbstacles to the use of nonstructural ficod less mitigatten measures," paper presented to the American Soct-ety of Ctv11 Srgineers, San Francisco: Octocer.
911ett, Cennis S.
1984 "Why people take precautione against natural hazards," paper presented to the Conference en Erecuraging Sel f-Protection Eeha-
~s v ior, Futgers' University: July.
Milett, Cennis S.
1984 "Socicicgy in litigation: appl tcat'or 2 of d1saster research,"
paper presented to the Socioicgy of O t sas*ers Session Of tne Pacific Sociclogical Assccietfen, Seattie: April.
Milett, Cennis S.
1983 " Social treact and use of earthquase predictten .arnirgs," ; aper presented to tha US-Japan Seminar Oc Fr3ctical Apprcaches to Earthquake .:recic*.icn and Warning, Tckyc: Noveecer.
Frey, R. Scott, Thomas Otetz, Cennis S. Milett, and Cebre Cornelius
'.983 " Structural ceterninants of ecuennity accat 4n of tre .Nattenal Flecc :nsurance Fregram," paper , r esentec to tne cura' Sec tcicsi-cal Society, Lexingten: July.
Milett, Dennis S., Oonald M. Martsouge, :atti Vadson anc Fick Fufnagel 1963 "The Three Mile Island tecfdents a stucy of unoctrust s e indica-tors of human stress," paper presented ic the Disasters and Hazards Researen Session of the Micwest Sociological $cciety, Kansas City: April.
Hufnagel, Rick, and Dennis S. Milett 1983 . "Org an i za t t ena l anc environmentai catastroone: factors affectfrg organizational response to a predicted earthquake," ; aper presen-tbd to the Ctsasters and Hazards Researen Session of the Western -
i Social Science Association, Alburquque: Ap ri l .
Milett, Dennis S.
1982 " Earthquake predict ten respense: cu l tu ral cceparisons :etween Japan anc the tr f tec States," pe;ne presented to tne v,tsaster p\_). Research Session of the Internaticnal Scciological Associetico, Mexico City: August.
l 11
9 4
t O
Milett, Cennis S.
1982 " Influencing corporate cect s tons en the use of c.f erczenation information," paper presentec te One Thirc International Confer-e ence on Microzonation, Seattle: June. .
Milett, Dennis S.
1982 " Earthquake preciction anc warnings: too human equation," paper presentec to'the Conference en Hazares Fesearch, Policy Cevelop- '
ment, anc Implementation !rcentives: Focus en Urcan Eartsquakes, Fel tcy Researen Center at the Univers *ty of Reclancs, Rec l ancs:
June.
Milett, Cennis S.
1982 "Public perceptten of seismic hazarcs," paper presentac to the Seismological Scciety of Aaerica, Ananetm: April.
Williams, Gary, Frank Santepolo and Cennis S. Milett l 1980 " Perception of grewin impacts in energy irrpactec commun f tf es,"
- aper presentec to the Rural !cciological Society, I
- naca: Au-gust.
Milett, Cennis S. .
1980 "81anning initiatives for seismic hazard mitigation," paper pre-sentee to the Conference en Social are Economic Impacts of Ear-I thquakes on Cef tical Lifelines of tBe American Society of Civil 3
Engineers, San Franciscc: May.
Tf reer, Coug, anc Cennis -S. Milett 1980 "~nterceganizational and structural ceterminants of decision making," paper presented to the Session on Ccmplex Crganizations of the Micwest Sociclegical !cetety, Milwaukee.
Williams, Gary, Cenris S. Milett 1980 "Ccemunity gre. n anc impacts," paper presentec to the Western :
Sccf al Science Association, Albuqurque: Ap ri l .
M11e:1, Cennis S.
1980 Suman respense to earthqut<e prectetten," paper presentec to One Status of Knewl ecge Sess ton of the Cc oference on Earthquake Frectetten :nfermation, L:s Angeles: J anu ary.
Williams, Gary, anc Cennis S. Mileti i 1979 "Serceptions of growth impacts in non-metropol f'u Ccicraco,"
paper r n ented tc the Impacts !*ssica cf the Conference on F'g'enal Migration Trencs, St. Leu t s: Cetecer.
M11et i , Cennis S., anc Gary Williams 1979 "Resicent parc;etions in growth impacted =+rtern agricultural cennunities," paper presentsc te One Fural Socic1cgical Society, l Vermont: August.
f Gillespie, Cavic F., Cennis S. Milett anc Stan Eftzen A979 "The optheneminality of organizational size," paper presentec to i the Sessten on Complex Crganizattens of tne Micnest Scciological l Society, M f t waukj ee: April.
I Milett, Cennis S., Janice R. Futton and John Sorensen j 1979 " Social f actors and res pense to earthquake prectetten," paper presentec to the International Symposium on ' Earthquake Precic- -
tion, UNESCO, Parts: Apet1.
Hutten, Janice R., Dennts S. Milett, and John Sorensen 1979 " Factors a f f ecting ea rtbr,u ak e wa rn ing sy stem ef fecti v eness,"
O paper presented to i t+ :nternational fymposium on Eartnquake Freciction, UNESCO, Faris: Apet1.
U,,
Sorensen, John, Janice R. Fut::n anc Cennis S. Milett 1979 " Institutional naragement cf risk information f o i i c . f n t,
~
earthquake precictions," paper presented to One .nterre' f 0nai Symposi t s on Earthquake Precletion, UNESCO, Paris: A;cil.
Mileti, Cennis S., anc Jar f ee Hutton 1978 " Social aspects of e arthqu akes," paper preserted to the State of the Art Session of tne Seconc *nternational Conference on Microzenation, San Frarcisco: Nevercer.
Milett, Cennis S., anc Cavic F. Gt11espie 1978 " Organizational size, compl ex t y and cect s f on mak t ;," paper presented to the Organizatices Session cf the American Socioicgi-cal Assocf6 fon, San Francisco: Se;tercer.
Gfliespfe, Cevic F., anc Cennis S. Milett 1978 " Corporate dize as acrk," paper presented to the Organizatfen of Work Session of the American Socictogical Association, San Fran-ciscc: Septertar.
Milett, Cennis S., anc Cavic F. Gillespie 1978 " Action pcstul ates in organization-env f ronment rel ations," paper
- resented tc
- ne Crganizations-Env f renment Session of the Micwes Sociological Society, Cmaha: April.
Gillespie, Cavtc F., anc Cennis S. Mileti 1978 " Size anc organizaticra' vf fferentiatten," pacer presentee to the Formal anc Com: lex organizations Sessicn of the Pacific Sociolc-gical Association, Spc<ane: Ap ri l .
M11eti, Cennis S., anc Petricia Harvey s- 1977 "Correctir; for ne numan fecter in tornaco earnings," paper presentec the Conference en Severe Local Since s of :ne Aesri-can Metececlogical Scciety, Cmaha: Cet:eer.
Mtieti, Cennis S., anc Cavic F. Gillesafe 1977 "Cegani z ation and en v f ecnment ac a;:st 'cc-c.cnipul att;n," ; aper presented to the Cr;anizational Relatinns Session of tr.e Arerican Sectoicgical Assectatten, Chicage: Sep ter.c e r.
Fut cn, Janica P., anc Cennis S. '*11eti 1977 "The uses and abuses nf s:enar'c: in ;oi f c y research," ; aper present6d t: the Social Fol fey lession cf *he Amer 4c en Ecciel;;'-
cal Asscciatten, Chicago: Septemcer.
Gflies;f e, Cavic F., and Cennis S. M11ett 1977 "Crganizational grcwth and -Anegerf al ef ficiency," pa;er ;rweer-ted te the Sccial Organization / Forma!/Ceepl ex Sess!:n of the Pacific Sociclogical Associa:f en, Sacramento: April.
Milett, Cennis S., and Cavid F. Gillespie 1977 "Organiz6tferal een f;s i et ton and adaptaticn *.o c eplex env f ron-ments," ; aper ;resencec : :ne Ccec l ex Crgant:ations Sessi:n Of the Micwest Scciclogical Sectety, Minnessolls: April.
Gillespie, Cavic F., Cennis S. Milett and J. Eugene Haas 1976 "Sf ze anc structurn in complex organizaticns," paper presentec :s the Organizational Change Sess f or c f tr e .*.rseric an Sec t o i cgic a l Assectation, Few Ycrv. City: August. .
Milett, Cennis S.
1976 " Learning theory and disaster warning response," paper : resented to the Issues in Env f ecerantal Analysis Session :: the haerican 7-)3
(_ Sociclogical As sc.c f etion, Ne Ycrk City: August.
13
i l
l O
Haas, J. Eugene, and Cennis S. Vilett l 1976 " Consequences of earthquak e preciction or other adf us: ents eartheuakes,"
s pacer presentec tc the Austral f an Acacemy of Scien-ce, Cancerra: M ay. -
~
Milett, Cennis S., anc J. Eugene Haas 1976 "A e.ethodology for future ecliective events," paper presented to the Collective Eenavior Sess'en o' the Midwest $cciological !c-ciety, St. Lou t s: April.
Gillespie, David F., anc Cennis S. Mileti 1976 " Operations techno1cgy and organizetteral structu re," paper pre-sented to the Ferral Organt:aticns Session of the Micwest Sccic-legical Scetety, St. Lotis: April.
Haas, J. Eugene, anc Cennis S. Milett 1976 " Assessing tbv conss es.e rces e.' (+rthqu ak e p recictien," pap e r presented to the $ccial Risk Session of :ne American As ccf ation for the Advancement of Science, Soston: Feb ru a ry.
M11ett, Cennis S., anc Cavic F. Gfilespie 1975 " Technological uccerte r ty in organization-environment rel a-ef ors," paper presented : the Fornei cr sin!;attens !*ssten of the American Sociclegical Asscciation, San Francisco: August.
Mileti, Dennis S., and Cav fc F. Gilirspie 1975 "A resolutten of incensistenef es between size, coeplextty and tne administrative component in organizations," paper presented to the Formal Crganizations Sessicn of the Midwest Scciolcqtcal Society, Chicagc: April.
O,' Milett, Cennis S., arc Cavid F. Gillespie 1975 "Tecnnelogy and the stucy of erganizat'ces," paper presentec c tne Formal Crganizations Session cf the Facific Socicieg f cal Asscciatice, V f ctort a: April.
Mile:f, Cenris S., and Cavic F. G111espie 1975 "An interact ha recel fo r or;e n' ,t f ce-env ironment rel ations,"
paper presented tc ne *nterorgarizational Fe10tions Session of the Micwest Sociclogical !cciety, Cmana: April.
Vileti, Cennis S., anc Cavic F. Gillespie 197a "A fcrbai t zatien of Organizat'cn-ccv f ronment cepencencies," ; aper presentec to the Formal Organizatices ?, ssice of :ne Faci fic
!cciciogical Asscciatten, San Jose: Vaccc.
Farbar, Sarcara, anc Cennis S. M11eri 1974 "Value and role issues fcr tre involved scef al scientist," paper presented to the Appi tec Sess f on e f :Me Facific Sociciogical Asscetaticn, San Jose: M arcs.
Milett, Dennis S.
1973 "Drowing: a communications disease," pacer presentec to !!e " ass Ccmmunications anc Fuelic Cpicion Session of the American $ccf c-logical Association, New Ycrv City: August.
Milett, Dennis S., and Sigmund Krane 1973 " Response to impenefoe, system stress," paper presented te the What Cc tle Know Tession on Human Sebavior in Cisaster of tne ,
American $cciological Assccict!cn, New Ycrk City: August.
Vileti, Cennis S.
1973 "A parad5 f m and sociology of kncwledge for thecr'es of natural
()
law," paper ;rt rented to the Theory !assion of the . vf dwest $ccic-logical Sectety, Milwaukee: April, 14
O Milett, Cennis S.
1972 " Response to hazards .arnings," pa:er presentec to ne Crganiza-ticnal and Community Fesponse to Cisaster Serrinar at ne Of sas er Researen Center of the Chio State University, Colcatus: *ul y, h e caes m 1 Gagit t=etures_
" Social aspects of risk," Risk Analysis Seminar, Department of Incustrial Engineering, Stanfor: University: Fec ruary, 1985.
Tcmmunic atir g ergineerteg trformation to public officials," Social App 11-cattens Session, Earthquake Engineering Ref erech Institute, Seattl e: Feb-ru ary, 1985.
" Social and ;v i't ical obstacles to the use of nonstructural flced Icss mitigation reasures," Anerican !cciety for Civil Engineers, San Franc'sec:
Cct cer, 1984
" Warnings: apply tn,; ruearch ir ne private sector ," Flenary Session on Hazarcs Resaaren and s'anagement: Assesst.;ents of a s'aturing Fiele, Natural Hazarcs Researen Applicaticns Worksacp, Soulcer: July, 1984
" Human respera, o . mergencies," Emergency ? rep aredness Execu ti v e S'eminar for County Ccemissioner , cf the Ccemenwealth of Pennsylvania, GFU Nuclear Cor;c rat t en, Harri sbu rg: s' arch, 1982 The uses cf earthqucke precteticn-warnirgs," Coll:qiuri en Earthquake Fre-cietion Researen in Be US, Earthc.uake Researcs :nstitute, Uni vers t:y cf Tckyc: Never6er, 1983.
" Human response in cisasters," American Rec Cecss, Mil e Hign Chapter, Ecuicer Region, Ecuicer: July, 1983.
":ntegratec emergency raanagenent: cha ll enges anc opportunities," Fl anary Session of ne Natu ral Ha arcs F(+earen A;;1 tcat ions ' ices snop, Ecu lcer:
July, 1983.
" uslic resconse to flood cisaste.rs," Conferorce en
- re Neec fcr ~ ear" cc-in Managing F1 cod Hazarcs, Association of 5:ata F1cocplair t.*anager, S e c r'.-
mento: A p r' 1, 1983.
" Natural hazards, disasters and puci te ;oi tcy," Environaental Manageeent l
Institute, Univers1 y of Southern Cai f fernia, Les Angeles: April, 1982.
l "Nyths of disaster respense," Earthquake Planning
- Conference for Sustress and Industry, Les Angeles: Fey, 1982.
" Communicating lessens learnot f ron- .ncial sc i ence resea r c4 c.r. G e r-thquakes," Workshop of Identifying and Of sseminating Lessons Learnec fece -
Recent Eartaquakes," Earthquake Engineerirg Researen :nstitute, Les A1:cs:
Cecemcer, 1982.
O V " Social causes of rar-trquake predictien-sarning response: implications for t
the cosign of C41 tfernia's warning syster and information e t ssemination,"
15
~ _ __ _ ;
l, V
Southern Cal 1 fo rnia Earche,u ak e Frepa rt dcr:s s Fro,'ect, V an Nuy s: Cc tc: e r, 1981.
" Assessment of research on natural hazards: . hat .have se learned and what proolems demand furtner attention," Natural Hazarcs Fesearch A;pl f eations workshop, Sculder: July, 1981.
"Olsaster recenstruction: p atterns to gu id e p l ann t nr.," Gov ernor 's Te si.
Force for Earthquake Emergency Freparedners, Ocnetttee on Long Fange Fecon-structien, Sacrecento, July, 1981.
"Socio-cu l tu ra l d imen s f or.> c f e arthqu e< e risk," Governor's E:-er ency 7t sk Force en Earthquakes, General Assen.bly, Sacrarcente: M ay, 1981.
"Interorganizaticnal rel aticns and sers ice delivery systems," Fealth Scien-ces Center, University of Colorace, Cenver: Cet::er, 1980.
?Secial response to earthquake preciction: local policy issues," Scuthern California Emergency Se-evices />:ociation, Mcotecelle: Feo ru ary, 1980.
" Human resconse tri uvit!* r-torne hazards w arnings," Copartment of Atmos-pheric Sciences, Colorado State Uriversity: Ce re c er, 1979.
" Natural eazarcs, cisasters anc secial research," Capartment of !cciclegy, Ucivera f ty of Cenver: Cecuc er, 1980, 1979.
"Measu ring impl ementat ion of pue l f c pol fcy for ficodpl ain land use cen-tecls," Natural Hazarcs Researcn App l icetions Work snop, 3oul dtr: Augu s t, 1973.
"Sccf cecencate ef facts cf eartnquak e ;recic'. ',n at d state pc' icy," Ccnfer-ence on State Foiicy for Earthquake F 90 f etico T.-c.nncicgy, 5ct ' :er: Nover-t e r, 1977.
"* cpu l ati c a, rescurces and ;olicy for scefal enange," Col l ege o f *:a*.. ra' htcurces, Ccicraco State University: != , t aa: e r, 1977; Fec ru ary, ' 973; i .
Fe, ru a ry, 1980.
"The beha v f e r o f gov ernr..ent and cc r;c rate organ f zat':r *, in an ear squ A t predtetton," American Society for ?uelic Ac:rinistration, Coloraco Ct.c;m ,
Cenver: April , 1976.
"The social and econctric aspects of scientf fically crecible earthcuake predictions," California State Seniinar en Emergency Freparecness anc Ear-thquake Fredicticn, Palm Sprirgs: June, 1976.
"*reparing to make use of eartnquake pr ec ;ctions," Eeergency Fre r a ,-dvs.*
Cerraf ssion for th Ccunty and Cities of Los Angeles, Montecello: Fee ru a ry. -
1976.
"The social organization of hazard warning systents," Engineering Foundat';n
( Conference on Cecisten Making for Netural Hazares, Facif fe Grove: Marcr, 1976, 16 i
. . - - _ - - - - - - - - ~ _ ._ . ---
i O "Setof tng on the i tkely social and econcetc tmpacts cf earthquake ;redf e-tien," Governor's Conference Fecm, Sacracente: May, 1975; .va yor's Conferen-ce Room, Los Angeles: cetecer, 1975.
" Social, economic and l egal aspects of eartnquak e prediction," General Assemoly of the International Union of Geodesy and Gecphys tes, Grance t e:
Septerosr, L975.
" Earthquake g ree t ct tosi c e c.: 't s impi tcat'or s for emergency preparedness,"
Center for Cerrecrity Studies, Tckyo: Sep ten:e er, 1975.
"Soctal impacts of ear *hquake predtetten: trrpi tcations (cr ;ol icy," Cal f-fornia Water and Fewer Eartnquake Engineering Forum, San Franctsec: Apet1, 1975.
i l
O i
O 17
O l g PQCFESSIONAL SE:v!CE i Oraanfrer Ag,11 Paesfder Session on Nuclear Power, Third International Congress on Emergencies, Washingtan, D.C.: May, 1985; Session on Appited Sociology, Facf fic Sccio-logical Assectation, Seattl e: April, 1984; Session on Theorettcal Asses- ,
sments, Western Social Science Association, San Otego: April, 1984; Sessten I en Methocological Approaches in the Study of Health Care Cel f very Systonis, !
Western Social !cteree Association, San Otego: April, 1964; fe.ssion en Erthquake Hazard Reductf en: Is the Nattenal Earthquake Hazarc necuctten Prograra f*eeting * *> Congressional !'andate, Sev enth Annu a l Work snop on j Natural Hazards Research Applicattens, Soulcer: July,1982; Session on Otsasters anc Cataclysms: Can Sociology Help, Facif fc Sociological Assoc'a-tion, San Otego: Ap rf l.1982; Sessicn on Col l ecti ve Sehav f or, American Sociological Association, New York: August, 198C; Sessten on Cceplex Crga-nizations, Facif f c Sectological Association, San Francisco: April, 1980; Session on Ccmplex Crganizations, Western Social Science Association Tem-pe, 1976.
Otseussant Session on Theoretical Assessments, Western Social Science Associatfen, San p Diege: April, 1984; Sessten on !ccietal Fes;cose to Hazarcs, American d Sociological Asscetetton, San Antonfo: Augu st,1984; Session on Fub l f c Response to Ear n Science Informatter,, f:atu ra l Hazards Research App l tea-tiens Work shop, Eculcer: July, 1980; Sessten en Warning Systems, National Conference on Natural Hazarcs, Eculcer: June,1976; Session en Warning Systems, National Conference on Natural Hazarcs, Sculder: J u l y, 197 5 :
!*ssion cr. C f sester Relief er.d 'iar ning Systems National Conference on Natural Hazards, Estes Farx: June, 1973.
3 sae-*e*ca-Panel on 01saster Research Its Funding and' Future, American Seef ciogica*
Asscciation, San Anteric: August, 1984; Review Panel, Cceresponc tng Wr'cer, i
iasa Gecup on Social and Ecenomic Aspects of Ear *Bquakes, Ma-fenal Acacery of Sciences, National Researca Council, Coneissten on Scciotechnical Sys-tems, Wasnington, C.C.: 1982; Workshcp co Cissemin+t rs Lessons Learnec from Recent Earthquakes, Ear *hquake Engineering Research Institu*e, Los Al tos: Deceaner, 1982; Tennessee Valley Authority Flcod Flain Evaluatten l Fanel, Soulder: No teseer, 1982; Earthe,uake Frectc-ton Warning Task Fcree i
Workshop, Southern California Earthquane Freparedness Project, As11cmar:
Cecenter,1981; Syntostum on Earthquake Freciction, Freparedness and Human Response, San Fernanco: June, 1976; Seminar on otsaster Researen', Colorace 3
State University, Fcrt Cellins: Feeruary,1975; Syn 4cs f ur' on Corplex Ccga-
- n f zattens
- Fesearch and Applfeat!cns, Western Social Science Asscciation,
- El Paso: Ap ri l, 1974 Editsrshfes Corresponding Ec f tcc, C gan uattens Ac,ji Ceeuentiens Newsletter of the Amer-(can Sociological Association, Western Region,1984-present; Associate Ecitor for sectal science, E a rtheu ak e Se eet -m> Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Fesearch Institute, 1984-1987; Corresponding Editor on Hazarcs 18
.= . -- _. _ -- -.
t O I and Otaaster, Env f ren-eatal Seef o15cv. Newsletter of the Secticn on Enviro-nmental Sociology of tne American Sociological Associatten,1981-cate; Guest editor, special issue on Environmental Stress, Threat and Sccial l
System Response, v_Lts E-er-eac'es l'4):247-346, 1976.
?..t'menv .
Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the matter of emergency planning at the Shorenam nucl ear reactor, Suffolk: Decemeer, 1983 througn Junei 1984;
! Nuclear Regulatcry Commission in the matter of emergency planning at the Wol f Creen generating station, Suelington, Kansas: J anu ary, 1984; Nuclear t Regul atory Ccmmission in the matter of pre-emergency pucl f c ecucatfen and information for emergency planning at the Waterford Three nuclear reactor, New Crieans: Fecruary,1983; Suffolk County Legislature State of New Yo rk,
- in the matter of emergency planning at the Storeham nuclear reactor, Su f-fold
- J anu ary, 1983; Nuclear Regulatory Commissten f r the matter of eeerg-
, ency planning at the Otaolo Canyon nuclear reactor, San Luf s Cb tsoo: Janu-ary,1982; Senate Subecmmittee on Science, Technology anc Space in tne
, matter of the National Earthquake Hazarcs Ferfuction Act, Washington, 0.0.:
j April, 1980; Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the matter of the impact of
- floating nuclear plants en tourist mehavior, Sethesca: May,1977 and July, I
1978.
i to-'stacive n :-eg-am :ev'ews l Earthquake Hazarcs Recuctf on Program, U.S. Congerssional Panel, Federal Emergency Managecent Agency, 1983-82; Earthqucke Huards Recuction Fregram l of the U.S. Geological Survey,1982; Final Regu' attens for Flece;1 ain v anagement anc Fretection of Wetl ancs, Federal E-ergency Management Agency, Federal Reg 1 ster 17mii:59520-39538, 1980; Appi f ec Researen Fregram Eva-luation, Naticnal Sc'ence Fcuncation, 1979-78.
- -e c e s a i : eve,ws l
Societal Fespense Pr gram of Civil and Env f renmental Engineering, Natf ena' Science Founcation, 1985-81; O f v t s ten of elicy 9esearen anc Analys t s, i National Science cuncation,1983; Sociolcgy Frogram, Mattenal ict ecce Foundation, 1982-81; Design Fesearen :regram, National Science Fcuncatter, 1982; Civision of Froolem Focusec Fesearen, National Science Founcatico, 1980; Olvision of International Fregrarrs, National Science Founcation.
1978; Otvision of Advanced Environmental Researen and Tecnnology, National l Science Foundation, 1978-76.
Ar*fele Reviews .
Human Rel at' ens, 1985-83, 1978-77; Scciole?' cal 3e-ssectf ves (Picc h-efalecical Rev i ew ), 1984; see'ai Fe rc e s. 1980-79; Socialeev E.1 Ece'11 Ma<ma sc h. 1983-81, 1979-78, 1976; Iha ocial s science Ieurmal,1985,1981-77; -
Ihg fee f eiee f cal cu a r eri v. 1975; Jeu raal cf. ;t.1 Acer'ein ""c *** c'i-
- te 1985; Tev ' ant Eeaav ier. 1983; ?isa,Analvs's. 1983; D.t En v ' rea-ea t a '
p-M essfanal. 1983-82; Bu l l et i n af. ::a !*fmolegical fec'*tv ci, ' ** " ' c a -
\ 19 8 2; s oe ' e l ee
- c a ! , ;c22, 19 80 ; 2.111 =-e - a c t e s , 1978,1976-7 5; e l 'ev Analysts, 19 78; Co --e a t Research j,pq E n -t h eu ak e :-ed f e t ' e n. 1984; u,,ggy Emeraene'en e t 0*sas e-s, 1985.
19 i _ _
O wev 4 e..
L. Lave and O. Epple, " Future Scenarf es," Chapter 21 i n R. W. !< ate s ( Ec.).
cit-ate feeact Asses =-ent. ? *u e t e, cf, m w .- -<-a -< m e,it, gg 1;y,. ueneva, for tne International Council of Scientific Union's $ctentific Ceneittee on Preolems of the Environment,1982; h ;g Earencua<e warares IN'ematien O f sseminatien Charl esten. Scuth Carei f aa. Resten for the U. S.
Geological Survey,1982.
Cecar* ment g Universitv service College Schol arsh f p Commf ttee, 1985-84; Copart. rent Executive Commf ttee, 1984-82, 1980-77; Cepartment Graduate Af f airs Ccmmittee, 1985-64, 1977-74; Department F f ve-Year Rev tew Comm1ttee, 1982; Cesarteent Comprehens f ye Exa-mination Committee, 1984-75; Cesartment ad hoc Committee on Gesearen Space, 1983; Cepartment Evaluation of Independent Stucy Courses,1978; Copartment Faculty Searen Committee, 1985-84; College Searon Committee for Department Chair, 1985-84; University Ccernittee on Etnnte Stuctes, 1976-74; University Committee on Latin American Stucf es, 1973-74 l
O
}
.I i
1 l
O 20
l O TEACHING caurses Taught (undergraduate)
Introduction to Sociology Complex Organizations Comographic Processes and Social Change Historical Sociological Theory Research Metnods Sociology of Hazards and Ofsasters caurses M (graduate)
!' Advanced Cuantitative Analysts Multiple Regression and Path Analysis Research Methods I Research Methods II Comography and Population Complex organizations Graduate Theses 1;; S*sser attens Chair, Ph.0. Ot ssertatico Committee, 6 Meecer, Ph.0. Ccxiittees,12
- Chat e, M. A. Thesis Committees, 4 O Memcer, M. A. Committees,12 S tu dert Evaluat'eas
~
Rankec as excellent by most students in most : curses; evaluation summaries are availacle upon request.
Teaca 'ae Aw ards Aluent Honor Faculty Award, Colorado State University, Alumni Assocfatten, for Academic Year 1983-1984; Cited for excellence :y ..e Oean, College of '
A rts, Susanf tf es and Sccial Sciences for Academic Year 1977-1973.
e e
O l
21
I l
l
)
(1) !
l l
Attachment 4
- l WEATHER CONDITIONS USED FOR THE CALCULATION OF SIREN SOUND COVERAGE AT NIGHT IN THE SHEARON HARRIS EPZ.
- Temperature: 71*F (modal value)*
i Barometric Pressure: 29.67 in. Hg. (average)*
j Relative Humidity: 86% (average)*
() Stability Class: F (average)*
Wind Speed 1 mph (mode)*
Wind Direction: SSW (mode)**
- Based upon distributions of observations at the site for
> 4:00 a.m. in July from 1973 through 1984.
- Based upon 12 years of June through August observations at the site for Stability F, midnight to 5:00 a.m.
E l
l -- - - _ - - - _ . _ _ . _ __ .,_ _ _ _ . _ _ . _ . . _ _ . _ _ . __
i
~
O .
i Attachment 5 SIREN SOUND LEVELS OUTCOORS AND NUMBERS OF HOUSES EXPOSED TO EACH LEVEL IN THE SHEARON HARRIS EPZ 2
(For Summer nighttime meteorological conditions in Attachment 4)
Nominal Siren Sound Level # of Sound Level Zones Outdoors Houses -
O >105 e8 u2e8 102 20, 178 100-105
- 95-100 97 337 90-95 92 800 2x 85-90 90 8 80-85 + 85-90; 2x 75-80 + 85-90 88 199 85-90 87 1256 I 2 x 80-85 85 120 2 x 75-80 + 80-85 84 10 75-80
- 80-85; 3 x 70-75 + 80-85 83 221 80-05; 3 x 75-80 82 1826 2 x 70-75 + 2 x 75-80 81 5 2 x 75-80; 3 x 70-75 + 75-80 -
80 376 2 x 70-75 + 75-80 79 79 70-75 + 75-80 78 454 75-80; 3 x 70-75 77 All 2 x 70-75 75 146 70-75 72 233
<70 67 62 l
l l
I Attachment 6 l FRACTIONS OF HOMES WITH VARIOUS OUTDOOR-TO-INDOOR SOUND ATTENUATIONS AND INDOOR BACKGROUND NOISE LEVELS T
Attenuation Outdoors-to- Backgrount
@ub- Indoors 6/
~
Noise at Freup Description Fractions dB Bed
- 1. Homes with No Air Conditioning; 0.356 1/ 12 40 7/
Windows open and fan operating Homes with Window Air Conditioning (A/C) end all Windows closed (Total 0.302) 1/
A/C In Bedroom (0.16) 2/
- 2. Bedroom Storms open or absent 1.0 x .16 3/ 0.16 26 49 8/~
Bedroom Storms closed - -
v 03/
A/C In Adja' cent Room (0.142) 2/
- 3. Bedroom Storms open or absent
.142 x .25 4/ 0.036 26 39 9/
- 4. Bedroom Storms closed
.142 x .75 4/ 0.106 30 39 9/
Homes with Central Air Conditioning and all Windows closed (Tetal 0.342) 1/
A/C Cycled on (0.106) 5/
- 5. Bedroom Storms Open or absent 0.106 x .25 4/ -
0.026 26 28 7/~
> 6. Bedroom Storms Closed
! 0.106 x .75 4/ 0.08 - 30 28 7/
A/C Cycled off (0.236) 5/
- 7. Bedroom Storms Opened .
0.236 x 25 4/-
0.059 26 13 7/ ~
- 8. Bedroom Storms Closed 0.236 x .75 4/ 0.177 30 13 7/
l
o 1
'( ) ,,
Notes to Attachment 6 U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 1980: Summary Tape 1/
File 3, North Carolina, for Enumeration Districts and Cen-sus Tracts within Shearon Harris EPZ, Table 120.
-2/ . Ibid; Envirosphere telephone communications with air con-ditioner manufacturers and regional distributors, August i, 1985.
3/ Installation of the A/C in the window precludes the clo-sure of the storm windows, if any.
4/ observations at the houses in which measurements were made in the Harris EPZ (see note (6)), plus available informa-tion (Envirosphere telephone communications with storm window retailers and energy conservation consultants in
'y the Raleigh, N.C. area, August 1985), indicate that, on average, about 25% of the houses with storm windows have a
- bedroom storm window open all summer.
5/ CP&L analyses of air conditioner operation as a function l of time of day (June 1985).
() 6/ Measurements obtained by EMM in 13 homes within the Harris EPZ, plus published data in: _
- a. Anon, " Noise Environment in Urban and Sub-urban Areas", Report FT/TS-26, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Hous-
- ing and Urban Development, March, 1968.
- b. Anon, " House Noise Reduction Measurements for use in Studies of Aircraft Flyover Noise," SAE Aerospace Information Report
< AIR 1081, Society of Automotive Engineers,
! 2 Pennsylvania Plaza, New York, NY 10001, Oct., 1971.
- c. Driscoll, D.A., J.P. Dulin, Jr., and D.N.
' Keast, " Attenuation of Northern Dwellings j to a Linear Source of Noise", an oral paper
- presented at the 95th Congress of The Acoustical Society of America, Providence, R.I., May, 1978.
7/ Measurements made by HMM at houses in the Harris EPZ. -
! 8/ Measurements made by HMM at houses in the Boston area.
9/ Measurements (note 8) less 10 dB for typical loss from one room to an adjacent 'oom r in residential buildings.
9376 l MS. RIDGWAY: Mr. Chairman, before I make the
- ]gg-SueW 2 witnesses available for cross-examination, they are prepared 3 to briefly summarize their testimony for the benefit of anyone 4 who may not have had the opportunity to read it.
5 JUDGE KELLEY: That will be helpful.
6 BY MS. RIDGWAY: (Continuing) 7 Q Mr. Keast.
8 A (Witness Keast) Yeah. I have analyzed the performance 9 of the fixed siren system which is the primary means of notifica-10 tion, both daytime and nighttime in the Harris EPZ.
11 Activated at night under the conditions postulated
. 12 in the contention, I have computed that it should be expected 13 to awaken sixty-nine percent of the households in the EPZ, allow-14 ing for the fact that some of the people will be awake anyway, 15 so- I have determined that the seventy-two percent of the house-i 16 holds in the EPZ will be awakened when the sirens are activated !
17 under the conditions postulated.
18 Q Mr. Joyner.
{
t 19 A (Witness Joyner) I Each of the four counties in the 20 emergency planning zone has a comprehensive plan for mobile 21 alerting to provide additional notification to the general 22 public. -
l 23 While the mobile alerting process cannot be completed l
s 24 m naco, ten,sne.
within fifteen minutes, it would be well underway during that 25 period. Therefore, many households would be covered by the
9377
- 3 -SueW 1 mobile alerting system within the fifteen minute period.
2 Q Dr. Mileti.
3 A (Witness Mileti) Formal notification in emergencies, 4 for example, through the use of sirens initiates communication 5 between members of the public resulting in informal notifica-6 tion.
7 That informal notification in conjunction with the 8 other sorts of activities that emergencies precipitate end up 9 alerting more households and people in an emergency than those ;
. i 10 that are formally notified. I have estimated that about eight 11 l percent more of the population in the EPZ for Shearon-Harris 12 , would be alerted in the first fifteen minutes of an emergency i O 13 through informal notification. f 14 And that estimate is extremely conservative and at 15 the lower end of a range of what could conceivably happen 16 l conservatively. About twice that amount would be informally i
17 ] notified, bringing the total to about eighty-eight percent if 18 informal notification were facilitated in the public by asking 19 people in the EBS messages to engage in informal notification.
20 MS. RIDGWAY: Mr. Chairman, Mr. Keast, Mr. Joyner 21 and Dr. Mileti are now available for cross-examination.
22 JUDGE KELLEY: May I just ask a question of Mr. .
23 Joyner for ease of access I guess.
() 24 no-Fasso neoonm, Inc.
The mobile alerting system that you referred to, 25 you describe it generally in your testimony, I take it that i
e - - +-*9p - h,--i,------,s-g--,,-yg vn-- w g- v-m-- c-wew 9eg-oy-,w--esvgr-mWa-+-e--e., 9--ws.,
9378 -
- 3-A-SueW 1 the State plan, possibly the County plans themselves, lay this b
2 out in some detail?
3 WITNESS JOYNER: Yes, sir, that's correct. The 4 State plan does lay out the routes, the time it takes to get 5 to certain points, and then the counties themselves go into 6 a little bit more detail based on the agencies that's tasked i
7 with that within the plan.
8 JUDGE KELLEY: I wonder if you would, at your i
9 convenience some time today or tomorrow, could you give us 10 citations to the State and County plans that reference the 11 mobile alerting system? ,
12 WITNESS JOYNER: Yes, sir.
13 MS+ RIDGWAY: We would be glad to do that, Your ,
14 Honor.
15 JUDGE KELLEY: Mr. Eddleman, we will turn it over 16 to you.
17 MR. EDDLEMAN: Good morning, gentlemen.
18 CROSS-EXAMINATION LNDEXX 19 BY MR. EDDLEMAN:
20 Q Mr. Keast, I would like to first ask you concerning 21 on Pages 2 and 3 of the publications that you were talking 22 about, or the research that you are talking about, have you .
23 published any papers in a peer review scientific journal on
() 24 wencs n.oonm, inc.
sound propagation at night?
j 25 A (Witness Keast) Yes, I have.
I l
9379
- M -SueW I Q Could you identify those papers?
D 2 A Let me see if they appear in my resume.
3 JUDGE KELLEY: May I ask Mr. Eddleman a question 4 just for clarification, too.
5 Do you have various documents for cross purposes?
6 MR. EDDLEMAN: I have documents supplied by the I
7 Applicants which if the witness were to not say what's in the 8 document I presume I would show them the document. But I ;
I 9 hadn't prepared documentary cross. l 10 JUDGE KELLEY: That's what I was really asking.
II I don't have any -- we don't have copies up here, you know, ,
i 12 the twenty-four hours in advance kind of thing. And I just l O 13 wondered whether any were forthcoming.
14 You don't plan on that?
15 l MR. EDDLEMAN: I hadn't anticipated -- like I say, 16 if somebody, you know, if there is a document that says X and 17 I they say not X, then I'm going to show them the document.
18 But I will be glad to supply copies if and when 39 that happens. ,
20 JUDGE KELLEY: But it's not -- if you had -- I 21 think I understand that point. If you had beyond that particular 22 documents that you do intend now to use as a basis for extensive 23 cross, then they should supplied.
24 MR. EDDLEMAN: Right. I don't have any such docu- I w.mers n oo,wes, Inc.
25 ments, at least in terms of what I think you mean extensive 4._ ..,_.,..._m_. . . - . . , , ~ , , y._,._., .,_.,. . . ,. .,_.. _ ._ _ _.m_ _ _ . , , .-
_m..._. ,,.~.y. _ -_
9380
- 3...6-SueW j line of questions or som~ething like that.
2 JUDGE KELLEY: I'm talking about our rule that we've 3
had here all along about --
4 MR. EDDLEMAN: Yes, sir.
5 JUDGE KELLEY: -- exchanging cross documents the day 6 before. ,
~
7 MR. EDDLEMAN: Right. l 8 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay.
9 MR. EDDLEMAN: I haven't produced any and I haven't l l
10 seen any from anybody else. j i
jj JUDGE KELLEY: Correct, nor have we.
I 12 ! BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) 13 Q Mr. Keast, have you been able to look up the answer 14 to that question?
15 ;
A (Witness Keast) Yes. I refer you to Attachment 1 16 of our testimony which is my professional resume, Page 3, the i
17 first three papers under the citation " Technical Papers and 18 Selected Reports."
19 Q Uh-huh. All right.. Let me refer you to Page 4, 20 down a little below the middle of that, you list a publicacion :
I 2
21 in the Journal Air Pollution Control Association entitled 22 "Some Pitfalls of Community Noise Measurement;" do you not? ,
23 A That's correct.
24 Q Can you tell us what some of those pitfalls are?
Am-Federsi Reporters, tric.
25 A Primarily spatial and temporal variability.
9381 93-7-SueW i Q And just for explanation, how do you define (s
2 spatial variability in this context?
3 A Spatial variability is the difference between what 4 one observes at one location, geographic location, and what 5 one observes at another geographic location.
6 Q Okay. And temporal variability would then be 7 variations between what one observes at one time and what one l
8 might observe at another time? -
l 9 A That's correct. l 10 Q Okay. And can you recall what sorts of magnitudes i 11 these variabilities have in community noise?
12 A Thirty decibels is a good example.
Q Thirty decibcis of variability?
13
- 14 A Yeah.
15 Q Okay. In your Answer 4 on Page 3, Mr. Keast, 16 you state that you have supervised the following FEMA guidance, 17 the design of siren alerting systems for various nuclear power 18 plants, j 19 Do you know who supervised tie design of the siren i
20 alerting system for the Shearon-Harris Nuclear Power Plant? ;
21 A No, I do not. -
22 Q Do any of the other panel members know? ,
23 A (Witness Mileti) I do not.
l () 24 Am-Fesoral Reporters, Inc.
(Witness Joyner) I do not.
25 Q It was not any of the members of the panel was it?
9382
- 7 ^-SueW ; A (Witness Keast) It wasn't me.. -
2 , (Witness Mileti) It wasn't me.
3 (Witness Joyner) It was not I.
4 0 Okay.
5 (Laughter.)
6 Get the correct English here. Now, you also state, 7 Mr. Keast, that you have prepared reports in response to FEMA-43j .
8 f r various nuclear plants.
i 9 And Shearon-Harris isn't in that list either is it? I p) A (Witness Keast) That is correct.
11 i 0 Okay. Do you know who, if anyone, prepared such i
(
12 ' a report on Shearon-Harris?
I (2) A I believe it was prepared by Dr. Rheda Basseouni of 13 ja Acoustic Technology, Inc.
15 0 Okay. Now, sir, you are the sponsor of Attachments 4, 5 and 6. So, I would like to refer you to those briefly.
16 l j7 And let's turn first to Attachment 4 if we may 95 which is a single page. Now, Mr. Keast, are you familiar with 19 the documents supplied by the Applicants entitled " bbnthly 20 Average Meteorological Parameters from Raleigh-Durham Airport?" l 21 A Yes.
22 Q Okay. Now, Attachment 4, the first asterisk states .
23 that the values for -- the top five values I believe have the O)
(_ 24 single asterisk, do they not?
Ass-Federal Reponm, Inc.
25 A That's correct.
l 9383
- ? ^-SueW 1 Q And those are based upon distributions of observa-O 2 tions at the site for 4 a.m. in July from 1973 through 1984.
3 Now, does that mean the Shearon-Harris site 4 meteorological instrumentation?
5 A Yes, sir, it does. '
6 Q Okay. And, do you know when that instrumentation 7 on the site was installed?
8 A No, I do not.
9 Q The double asterisk there, the wind direction states '
10 that that is based on twelve years of June through August 11 observations at the site for Stability F between midnight and 12 ;' 5 a.m.
f)
\- ,
13 Now, what are those twelve years? ;
14 A My recollection is that they are the twelve years 15 prior to July of 1984.
16 Q Okay. And those again are from the site meteorolo-i 17 gical instrumentation?
18 A Yes, sir.
19, Q All right. So, the data, the Raleigh-Durham Airport +
20 meteorological parameters was not used in your calculation of i
i 21 siren sound coverage was it?
22 A I used it only to the extent that I examined the .
l 23 RDU data, compared it to the site data to see whether or not ,
l ( 24 there were any gross and inexplicable differences.
A -Faseres neoorten, anc.
25 Q Okay. Well, now let me just ask you, on the 4 a.m.
9384 I sheet for monthly average meteorological parameters, 4 a.m.,
- qggp-SueW-2 RDU, do you have that document?
3 A Let me see if I do.
4 Q The listing I have dated October 22nd identifies it 5 as Item C, if that helps.
6 A I have it.
7 Q Okay. Now the average, the twelve year average, I
8 '
of relative humidity for RDU at 4 a.m. is ninety-two point two 9 percent according to that document, is it not? !
l l
10 A That is correct.
l RND #3 Il l honflws I 12 !
($') .
13 14 i 15 16 17 18 ;
I 19 20 l
21 22 .
23 l
([) u Reporters, Inc.
25 l
4-1-jon Wal 9385 ;
Q The resultant wind directions are mostly between
()
1 2 16 and 20, which I gather is tens of degrees, are they not?
3 A That seems like a reasonable assumption.
f 4 Q In fact, there is 34 in 1981, a 23 in 1979, 5 a 24 in 1976, and all the o th6rs are between 16 and 20. That 6 is correct isn't it?
i 7 A That is correct. I 8 Q All right, sir. Now, later when you get through 9 your calculations, I want to come back to how these variables, i
10 enter into your formula, but right now, -- let's see.
11 I would like to refer you to your Attachment 5.
12 Now, there is a column on there entitled nominal siren I
I '
13 sound level outdoors.
14 Now, is that dBA or dBC?
15 A ,
It is dB. No weighting.
16 Q No weighting whatsoefer.
17 A It is the sound pressure level of a 550 hertz 18 tone.
19 Q Okay. Now, what is the tone of the sirens?
I 20 A The fundamental tone is at 550 hertz. i I
21 Q Okay. Now, is this based on the counting that 22 you described in your testiomony? Is that how you did .
23 that?
() 24 m neoo,te,s, Inc.
A I suppose I don't understand the question. Ar'>
25 you asking if the 550 hertz tone is based on the counting?
l
f1 4-2-JonWnM 938f 1 Q Beg your pardon, let me rephrase the question.
2 You give numbers of houses in various ranges of dB there.
3 What I am asking you is, are these number of 4 houses obtained by the method of counting off the map that j 5 you describe in your testimony?
6 A That is correct. If you have enough patience, ,
l l 7 this is the count from the map that has been distributed j
. 8 as Exhibit 46.
- i 9 Q Okay. Now, is there any overlap? In other j l l j 10 words, could a single house appear in two categories? ;
4 11 A Yes, there is considerable overlap. And the 12 first column of Attachment 5, in shorthand notation indicates-i l
O 13 the overlap.
14 As I have attempted to describe in my written l
15 testimony . Let's just take an example. As we move down i
. 16 the list, it.would get down to say the fifth row is labeled
! 17 two times eighty-five dash ninety, and that is the i
18 count -- the number 90 in the second column is the count !
l l 19 of houses which lie within the.85 to 90 dB range of two i i 20 sirens. i
! 21 Q Okay.
22 A And it gets more complicated if we move down .
23 to row 6. We say eighty-five to - .eighty dash eighty-five 24 plus eighty-five dash ninety is the count of houses that mes sess,e coe,w, , inc.
25 lie within the range eighty to eighty-five of one siren,
{
. ~ - - , . . . . - . . , - . , . - - - - - . . . , - . . , _ , - . - -,---.--... . - -...---. - ..
4-3-JonWal .
9387 1 and eighty-five to ninety of another siren.
2 And in addition, included in that row are those 3 houses that lie within the seventy-five to eighty dB range 4 of two sirens, and in addition in the eighty-five to ninety 5 dB range of one siren.
j 6 There is considerable overlap, as you can see.
)
i 7 This count takes that into consideration.
8 Q Do you know what the total number of houses in I
9 the EPZ is?
10 A Approximately sixty-nine hundred and thirty, as l 11 I recall.
12 Q All right. Now, later on I will want to ask I () 13 you about your conversion rules, or addition rules for what {
i 14 being in two eithty-five to ninety dB, or two seventy-five !
15 to eighty dB situations are, but -- and I think also with 16 Attachment 6 it would be better if I came back to that 17 when I have gone through the testimony, so let me move 18 forward.
19 But before I go back to the testimony, I would ,
l 20 like to ask you: Do you have available the information !
l 21 supplied by CP&L that is the backup to this entitled, Housing l 22 Units Within Shearon Harris EPZ with storm windows? .
l 23 A Yes.
I k'l
/ 24 Q Do you have that before you?
m recorwn inc.
25 A Stand by a moment; I will get it.
f l
t . - - . . . -- - -
. ~ . . . . - . . ~ . . - . . - - - - - - - . . . . - . . - - . - . - . - -
4-4-JosWal 9388 f,
() 1 Q It is a little i of the information supplied
- j. 2 on October 22nd.
3 A I have it.
! 4 Q Doesn't that show seven thousand,. three hundred i
- 5 and forty-seven housing units?
j i 6 A Yes, it does.
l 7 Q Do you dispute that number? l i
7 8 A I have no basis for disputing it. I think the {
! I 9 . difference between dhat number and the total that you get j 10 if you add up our numbers lies in two areas.
II One is presumably in the fact that the building, i 4 12 some of them, the dots on our maps are multi-family dwellings, 1
[} ~
4 13 and the other is in the area of trying to count -- allow. for !
1 i 14 the count of houses within municipal boundaries within the l,
! 15 so-called pick areas of the USGS maps.
- 16 Would the numker six thousand, nine hundred and 0
i 17 thirty that you referred to earlier, the one that was used 18 in your study?
( 19 A That is correct.
- 20 0 Okay. Did you derive that number from the i
21 information in Attachment i that we have been discussing?
1
~
22 A That number is derived from the source maps for
, 23 Exhibit 46.
j
() 24 0 If you count on the dots on the source map, you Ae resere cooorwes, anc. .
25 get approximately six-nine-three-zero? l
{4-5-JocWal 9389 l
2
() I A Yes, yes. l 2 Q Okay. Now, I will like to also refer you to the 3 paper entitled, Attenuation of Northern Dwellings to a l ,
i i 4 Linear Source of Noice, which was also supplied on i 5 October 22nd.
i 6 Do you have that available to you? _
I !
- 7 A Yes, I do. I i
j 8 JUDGE CARPENTER: I am sitting here empty handed, -
- 9 listening to you ask questions. !
4 10 MR. EDDLEMAN: I am sorry, Judge. The Applicant l 1
! II , served on me a number of backup documents. I didn't double l l I
12!
j .() check to see who go the cc's with enclosures or without "
13 enclosures. It appears that they were not served on the 4
I4 Board. -
i 15 I hadn't noticed that, j 16 JUDGE CARPENTER: Is there some reason the I
17 Applicants want to keep the Board in the dark?
l 18 MS. RIDGWAY: Your Honor, this was in the nature 19 Mr. Eddleman was, of of supplemental document production. ;
1
- 20 course, free to copy them at our premises for his ,
l 21 convenience. We supplied them to him. If he wishes to use
- 22 them in cross-examination, it would be our position that he
l ,
23 I l is obligated to provide a copy to the Board. L 24 l MR. EDDLEMAN: I will be glad to provide copies As>Federes memoriers. Inc.
later.
i l
I
4-6-JoeWal 9390 1 JUDGE KELLEY: Why don't we just walk through 2 this and get it fixed for the rest of the hearing.
3 Mr. Eddleman, was it your understanding that 4 documents should be out-in discovery from the Applicants 5 need not be supplied in advance if they want the subject 6 to the extend of questioning, or what was your understanding 7 on that? l i 8 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, this letter dated 9 October 22nd just says:
Dear Wells,
enclosed clease find 10 copies of -- and then there is a list of documents. !
II And it says: The enclosed documents relate to 12 i the analyses described in the testimony of David N. Keast,
() 13 Alvin H. Joyner, and Dennis S. Mileti, on Eddleman 57.C.3, 14 Nighttime notification. i 15 Now, I didn't look at the cc notation, and I 16 assumeed since it didn't say this is just special discovery 17 or follow-up discovery, I assumed that it had been served 18 on the Board. I did not look.
19 JUDGE KELLEY: I don't think -- we just want to 20 work it out for now so we can move ahead. Would you have i
21 extra sets?
22 MS. RIDGWAY: We have one extra copy. .
I l
23 JUDGE KELLEY: Will you let the Board look at it? '
c l k' /') 24 MS. RIDGWAY: Yes, Your Honor.
m meno,im, Inc.
25 JUDGE KELLEY: We will just take a minute here
I 4-7-Jo:Wal 9391 r- 1 to catch up. !
(_' l I
2 (Document passed by Applicants to the Board.)
3 Maybe we could have a brief explanation of what l
4 we just got a copy of? What does this speak to? ,
5 MS. RIDGWAY: It is a document that was provided j i
6 to Mr. Eddleman as being responsive -- perhaps responsive 7 to some of the discovery.
8 In other words , it was supplemental discovery.
9 He filed discovery last fall. We reviewed those interroga-10 tories at the time that we were filing the testimony, and 11 l felt that this might potentially be relevant, and therefore I
12 l produced it in response to his request.
/,,h i
( /
l 13 JUDGE KELLEY: And I thought, though, that in 14 discovery as a normal matter, all parties were served. Am 15 I wrong?
16 l MS . RIDGWAY: All parties are served with copies I
l'7 of the responses to the interrogatories.
18 JUDGE KELLEY: Not to document requests.
19 MS. RIDGWAY: And because of the proximity to the 20 time of hearing, we thought it would facilitate -
21 JUDGE KELLEY- I understand. I think we just i
22 have to -- since we are looking at these papers this .
23 morning -- hold on a minute.
(3 24 (Board confers.) i Am-FMwel Rmorten. im, 25 Ne are prepared to proceed, now that we have a j l
4-8-JoeWdll 9392l Tl I copy.
LJ 2 Want to go ahead now? Maybe you could repeat 3 your last question, Mr. Eddleman?
4 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) 5 A Mr. Keast, I am referring you to a paper entitled, 6 Attenuation of Northern Dwellings to a Linear Source of i
7 Noise, of which you were co-author, and which was document i I
8 in this list of documents. !
9 Which, as far as I can see, looking back over it i
10 doesn' t actually refer to discovery requests. It just gives Il me a list of the documents I am getting from the Applicants g 12 'l on October 27.
V i 13 ' Do you have that document before you?
I4 A (Witness Keast) Yes, I do.
15 i Q Okay. First, I would like to ask you about the 16 Did you use this in use of the information in here.
i 17 l preparing your study for Shearon Harris?
18 A Yes.
19 How did you use it?
Q 20 A Well, we needed to address the question of how 21 much is the sound reduced from outside a house to inside I 22 a house? -
23 !
In order to answer that question, we made some c
l t
' 24 l '
measurements at houses in the Shearon Harris EPZ and we l AcsJeders ceoonen, Inc. I I
25 compared the results of those measurements to other measurements
4-9-JotWal 9393 I l
l l that are in the literature.
[}
2 This is one of the other measurements in the 3 literature to which we compare it.
4 Q Okay. Did you measure those levels at houses 5 in the EPZ with the sirens actually in use?
6 A No, we did not.
7 Q You used another type of sound source?
8 A Yes, we did. !
t 9 Q Was that a source with a spectrum comparable to i
10 the siren?
II A Yes. We followed a procedure which is identified i
12 i in ASGM Standard E.336-71, Appendix F, as I recall -- I am O 13 sorry, Appendix A1.2, standard method for measurement of what.
i 14 we would call field insertion loss.
15 l 0 Is that Appendix F source referred to directly l
16 ' in your testimony?
17 A No, it is not.
18 0 Do you have a copy of the October 22nd transmittal!
19 letter?
20 A No, I do not.
21 Q Will counsel allow me to show him the letter?
22 MS. RIDGWAY: Yes. f I
23 MR. EDDLEMAN: Thank you. ,
( 24 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) m roomn, enc.
25 Mr. Keast, I am going to show you my copy of this Q
j 4-10-JosWal 9394 I
s I letter dated October 22, 1985.
l I 2 Please take all the time you want to look it l 3 over.
1
~
I 4 A (Witness Keast) Could you give us a to whom, and 5 from whom?
i i 6 Q It is to me, from Ms. Ridgway of Appliccants.
I 7 A Thank you, i
! 8 Q What I want to ask you is, does any part of that i '
l 9 appendix appear on this list? Please check it over. ,
I )
10 A No, it does not. ,
I 11 Q Okay. I would like to refer you again to the j
1 12 paper, Attenuation of Northern Dwellings to a Linear Source j
(/ 13 of Noise, Mr. Keast, and I would like to ask you concerning ,
j 14 the comparison of results -- pardon me.
l 15 ' Let's refer to Figure 3 if we may, which is about t
l 16 -- mine is printed on both sides of the pages, so I go back
- 17 two pages from the back, and then the back of the facing i
18 page has Figure 3 on it.
} 19 A I have it.
l i
! If I am looking at the same ' thing you are, it is 20 Q 21 not the same. This has two graphs on it, sort of rectangular",
l 22 and the lower one is entitled, Range in Room Noise Reduction i t I
! 23 Values. l l ) 24 A Well, I am looking at Figure 3. Are you looking
'm noso,ws, Inc.
25 at another figure.
l
- 4-ll-JoeWal
. 9395 l
1 Q Well, perhaps this reproduction, you can see that 2 mine is half-size, and I think yours must be full-size, is i i
3 that the difference?
1 i 4 The papers that you are going through there, as 5 I see them, have a single graph on each page.
6 A Why don't you bring that over here and let's see 7 if we can identify it?
l 8 MR. EDDLEMAN: May I counsel?
i '
9 MS. RIDGWAY: Yes, Mr. Eddleman.
i 10 WITNESS KEAST: That is a combination of my
\
11 Figure 2 and Figure 3.
- 12 BY MR. EDDLEMAN
- (Continuing)
(:) 13 Q Okay. So you have Figure 2 and 3 on separate ;
14 pages, and I have both reduced onto the same page, but it i 15 does appear to be the same graphs, does it not? What I 16 want to ask you about, Mr. Keast, with respect to Figure 3, L 17 is that the range of noise reduction seems to be approximately l
18 plus or minus 10 dB between 125 hurtz octive band center -
\
19 frequency, and about eight thousand hertz.
20 Would that appear to you to be correct from your i 21 Figure 37 22 A Well, the only thing that is important, of course f I
23 is the values at 500 hertz.
()
m tesormes, inc.
24 Q Okay. Then let's look at 500 hertz.
25 A And the range there is from minus five to plus ten
_ _ _ _ _ _ - , _ - . . - . _ _ . _ , . . _ , _ , _ _ - . _ . _ _ ~ _ - . _ . - . _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ , . _ _ . . . _ , . _ _ . _ _ . . _ . . . _ _ _ . _ , _ . ,
4-12-JoeWal 9396 1 dB.
i O 2 Q Okay. Now, Figure 2, as I have it on the reduced t
3 copy, doesn't show a range.
i 4 This is the room noise reduction values measured 5 in 16 rooms and 14 houses.
- 6 Do you have a range on your copy?
l 7 A No, sir. Mine is the same as yours.
8 Q All right, sir. The Figure 4 that I have appears 9 to have a trace of a range on it also. Can you give me the i
10 range on 500 hertz from that from your Figure 4?
II A That is about 23 to 33, with an average of about 12 27.
i 13 Q Okay. Now, likewise in Figure 5, it would be i 14 windows open two square feet I take it is what thdt says, 15 is that correct?
16 A That is correct.
17 Q The range on that, at 500 hertz, is that about I ,
18 plus or minus five?
19 A yes, 20 Q Now, we also have a Figure 7, comparison of i
j 21 results from previous studies. Now, this compares the !
1 !
22 present study with an SAU Study of cold climate and an HUD ,l 23 Study of New York residencies, does it not? .
24 A Yes, it does.
reso,w,i, Inc.
25 Q Okay. And at 500 hertz, they are within a few i
l l, - - _ _ - . _ _ _ - . . _ . , _ . _ _ - - - . _ _ _ _ _ _ . , _ - , ____ _ . _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ . -
4-13-JosWal 9397 1 dB of each other, are they not?
O 2 A Yes, I would say they cover a total range of !
3 about two decibals.
End 4. 4 (S fois.
5 ,
6 i
t 7 j !
8 !
I i 9 i r
10 -
- 1 12 O i3 14 15 16 17 I 18 19 20 ;
21
)
i l 22 , i 23 1
24 ceporwes,Inc.
25
9398 Sim 5-1 1 Q The figures 10 and 11, am I correct that these
-s l )
comparisons are of "A" weighted, that is DBA sound results?
3 A (Witness Keast) That is correct.
4 0 Okay. These show a larger variability in the 5
SAER-AIR 1081 cold climate study than in the study reported 6
here, do they not?
7 A The information on Figure 10 is in no way 8
pertinent to the way in which we use these data.
9 Q You didn't use the ranges of data at all in 10 your study, did you?
11 A Yes, we did.
12; Q How?
( ) 13 i- A We used them in order to determine means and 14l variances in order to come up with average values which 15!
j were applied in the calculations.
16' O Did you report those means and variances in 17 your testimony?
18 A No.
19 Q Why not?
20 A Just the average values, because I didn't 21 believe they were pertinent.
22 O Well, isn't it true that the variation in 23 sound level or sound attenuation could make a difference Ac F : n.ponm, nc. in whether the sound could be heard?
l 25 l A On average, no. I did determine distributions,
9399 I
Sim-5-2_ and the distributions are essentially normal. So I
! ')
2 concluded that there were just as many houses with attenua-3 tions less than the average as there were those with attenuations greater than the average, and use of the 5 average was adequate in my judgment.
6 But you do say that there is approximately Q
l 7 ~
an equal number of houses with greater attenuation than 8l average as there are with lesser?
9 A That is what I said.
10 Q Okay. So in these houses with greater attenua-11 tion than average, the sound coming in from outside would I2 be less, wouldn't it?
( '
13 x- A Yes, and..that would be offset by the fact that 14 f in an equal number of houses there would be less attenuation 15 than average.
16 0 Well, let me try to make an analogy here.
I7 Suppose that I am measuring a flood and I have got an average 18 excess water level and then there is some variation because 19 there is some wind whip waves involved, let's say. So in 20 some areas the water level doesn't come up to average and 21 in other levels the water comes up higher than average.
22 Now what I want to measure is a critical 23 variable, namely, whether the inside of the house gets wet. t i
24 Me-Fg1 Reporters, Inc. Now in that situation wouldn't it be so -- well 25 1 let me just leave that as an analogy and ask the question l l
l l
l
9400 1
1 Sim 5-3 )
i about this. >
C) 2 Isn't it so that where the sound attentuation t
l l
3 is greater than average, the noise level inside the house 4 that you get from the sirens is less and therefore it is ,
5 less likely to actually wake people up in that half of the 6 houses?
7 A Well, first of all, I object to the flood !
8 analogy because I think it is no way pertinent to what we 9 are trying to do here. We are trying to make a statistical 10 estimate, a berg of fert estimate of a situation.
11 r thu.k 't; cave done it fairly and I think we 12 have done it properly. -'ipviously those people who are in
() 13 houses that are very tightig sealed compared to the average 34 house are going to be in that portion of our answer that are 15 not going to be immediately alerted at least. Those people 16 who are in houses n,thich are leakier than the average are j7 going tc :o L? that pertion of the population that are more 18 likely to to ilertcd early in the alerting process.
i Q but isn't it si that you figured the alerting
, 19}i 20 process based or, the assumption that all were exposed to the 21 average attenuation and the average background noise? L 22 A That is correct.
23 Q Okay. Now if exposure to the average noise
! 24 would have woken someone up, then it is fair to assume that Ie w n.p.,ws, Inc.
25 exposure to a louder noise would also have woken them up; -
w -~,~s a,,. . . .,---m-. rw-.-y ~~m-~,,e- -n-- -v,em-, , - - - - - - w.-- -n-,,w-e w n-,,nn--.---ws.--w-- , ----------.+---m-m,-mnan--we,r- .,n -
9401
$im 5-4 1 isn't that true?
2 A Yes.
3 Q But it is not true that exposure to a softer 4 noise would have the same probability, as high a probability 5 of waking the person up, is it?
6 A I have difficulty following your postulate, but 7 let's start from what I think you are saying. I think what 8 you are saying is that if in the average situation we have 9 a probability of awaking someone, and let's just pick a 10 number out of the air and say 50 percent, then in the house 11 with greater attentuation it might be lower, it might be 12 40 percent. But in the house with less attenuation it would
() 13l be higher, it might be 60 percent.
14 So from the point of view of trying to determine 15 a statistical model, which is what we are doing here, it has 16 no pertinence.
17 Q All right. Well, when we get through to the 18 sound formulas, I want to go through those again with you.
19 Mr. Joyner.. I would like to refer you to the 20 middle of your answer 6, pages 4 and 6 of the prefiled 21 testimony describing your work in offsite emergency capability 22 for various plants.
23 A (Witness Joyner) You are speaking of Attachment 24 27
(~}
4 t_J R pon n. lac 25 0 Actually I am referring specifically to your i - _
9402 Sim 5-5 1
- Answer 6 which says that your qualifications are completely 2
stated in Attachment 2.
j 3 MS. RIDGEWAY: That is page 4 of your testimony, i 1
Mr. Joyner.
i
- 5 WITNESS JOYNER: Okay.
0 l BY MR. EDDLEMAN:
7 Q What I want to ask you is in your capacity with 8
the State would you be notified when FEMA did their official 9
observed test of the siren alerting system for Shearon Harris?
I
- 10 A (Witness Joyner) Very possibly so. I have been II present at the test for the Brunswick plant and also for the j I2 Catawba plant.
13 O Do you know whether the official FEMA witnessed I#
siren test of the Shearon Harris siren alerting system has 15 been done?
16 A It has not, to my knowledge.
I7 Q All right. Dr. Mileti, at the end of your 18 answer 8,whichbeginsonpage5a[ndwindsupoveronpage U
7, which is I guess sort of an introduction to your qualifica-20 i
tions that are in Attachment 3, you haven' t been involved 21 in any field testing of the Harris siren system or its 22
, effectiveness in waking up people, haYe you_?
i 23 A (Witness Mileti) No, I have not. l 24 f h,enen, lac.
Q Let me refer all you gentlemen to Answer 9 that 23 appears right below that.
1
- ,..+ ,----- .. - ----g--,-y....,.-4,.%-,,-,,,,em, ,-,---+--w.- -,,,-...~m. , - . - - y-----,-w.-...--g -.w - , -,e,%-y, m.- - , - , %y,-y-_,y - . - - ,-,-,.i ---,,-%.,-.
9403 l
l Sim 5-6 1 In terms of the sources of noise which might i
2 interfere with a sleeping person being awakened, is it true 3 that the study reported here addresses basically the noise 4 from fans and air conditioners?
5 A (Witness Keast) That is true.
6 Q Okay. Did you investigate any other sources 7 of background noise that might be present in the home when 8
pe ple were sleeping?
9 A Yes, we did.
I 10 0 What sources?
ijl A The background noise that might indoors from l
12 utdoors.
i
()
~
13 Q Okay. But no other sources in the house?
s_- ;
ja A That is correct.
Q No TV left on or stereo on or anything like the 15 :
I 16l refrigerator coming, nothing like that?
17 A Well, the refrigerator would be negligible 18 compared to the background noise caused by air conditioners j9 or fans. If the TV is on, then the alerting from the sirens 20 is not really necessary because the people will be alerted 21 by the EBS.
22 Q Well, are you saying that a person who is sleeping 23 with the TV on in another room is going to hear that EBS and 24 wake'up?
f Reporters, Inc.
feF 25 A They might. The EBS is normally initiated by a I
i
-- - .- ._. - = . - - - - - _ _ - . . . - - . - - - . _ . . - . .- _ - - . -
9404
, Sim 5-7 1 tone.
) 2 Q There is also a tone that comes on when the test 3 pattern comes on, isn't there?
i j 4 A Yes, there is.
i '
j 5 Q Do you know if it is the same tone?
I 6 A No, I don't.
1
- 7 Q The fixed siren system that is referred to in l 8 answer 10 here, it is stated that it has 69 sirens located i
9 throughout the Harris EPZ. These are the rotating sirens?
10 A That is correct.
2 II Q The 10 sirens on Harris Lake are fixed sirens; is 12 that correct?
() 13 A It is my understanding they are.
14 Q Okay. Now do these 69 include the five or six 15 additional sirens that are mentioned in the October 7th, 1985 16 memo from -- it is a letter from Robert G. Black, Jr., Manager 17 of Emergency Preparedness, Carolina Power and Light, to 18 Mr. Craig Wingo, Chief of the Field Operations Branch at FER A, 19 Washington, D.C.?
l 20 A Well, they include six additional sirens. I i 21 don't know whether they are the ones that are referred to in 22 that letter.
23 Q Do any of you know whether these 69 include the 24 ones that are referred to in that letter?
It.po,ews, Inc.
25 A Let's assume that they do.
, - - , a ~--,,- ,- , , , , - - , - , ,,,,---,e--,,,,,w- r- ,,,-r,,- ,,,, -, , e,ar,,v--p- ,,w- --~~-r g., e
9405 Sha 5-8 1 Q Well, I don't want to assume. I want to know O
(/ if you know or if any of the other panelists know?
2 3 MS. RIDGEWAY: We will verify that, Mr. Eddleman.
4 MR. EDDLEMAN: All right. I may want to defer. !
5 I might have some questions concerning the map that was
- 6 supplied with those if it turns out that they are included.
7 JUDGE KELLEY: All right.
8 BY MR. EDDLEMAN:
9 Q Now ---
10 JUDGE KELLEY: Let me just mention that we are 11 approaching a coffee break point if you want to ---
12 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, it would be convenient to
() 13 take it now. This would be a good break point.
14 JUDGE KELLEY: Let me just make a couple of points 15 here then. We will take a break here to get a cup of coffee.
16 We would like to take fairly frequent breaks for the sake
- 17 of the witnesses and everybody else, and we have noticed over 18 the course of the hearing that the breaks that we say we are 19 going to take get a lot longer than we originally said, and 20 that includes the Board, I-am sure, in terms of taking more 21 time, but we would like to hold it to 10 minutes. If we take 22 a break now, let's come back in 10 minutes.
23 (Discussion off the record.) l 24 JUDGE KELLEY:
(~}
Ace FJ Reporters, Inc.
Any strong feeling, Mr. Baxter?
25 MR. BAXTER: Not on the air conditioning, no.
l I
9406 Sim 5-9 1 (Laughter. )
2 JUDGE KELLEY: All right. You have a substantive 3 point perhaps. I 4 MR. BAXTER: Yes. We appreciate your rules on 5 the breaks normally. We would like to have a little bit ;
6 longer this time since we are going to be conferring about 7 Mr. Eddleman's motion.
8 JUDGE KELLEY: Fine. Do you want 20 minutes?
9 MR. BAXTER: Fine.
10 JUDGE KELLEY: All right. At 10:30 or so plus 11 we will resume.
12 Thank you.
() 13 (Recess taken.)
14 JUDGE KELLEY: We are back on the record following 15 a break, and before we resume cross-examination, let's go 16 back to the question that Mr. Eddleman raised initially about 17 Dr. Basseouni.
18 Mr. Eddleman, you I think made your request 19 earlier. Do you have anything to add to that or should we 20 hear from the other parties?
21 MR. EDDLEMAN: I haven't spoken with Dr. Basseouni 22 further. So I guess I would just like to hear what the I
i 23 applicants and the FEMA staff have to say and then respond j p 24 Ac Fu n.peners. inc.
to them.
25 JUDGE KELLEY: Just so we are clear on the
[ _ . _ _
9407 Sim 5-10 I proposition, islit your proposition that you want to call
) 2 him as a late witness, or do you want the Board to call him, 3
or what is your proposition?
4 MR. EDDLEMAN: I would put it in the alternative, 5 Judge, and I am not sure which. I think really having him 0 as a Board witness is a superior alternative. But, if not, 1
7 I would like to call him as my witness.
J 8
JUDGE KELLEY: Has he indicated a willingness i
9 to come?
10 MR. EDDLEMAN: Yes, he has.
II JUDGE KELLEY: All right.
. 12 Mr. Baxter or Ms. Ridgkay.
() 13 MS. RIDGWAY: Your Honor, to put the issue in Id proper perspective, I would like to explain the role of ATI 15 in the siren analyses for the Harris EPZ.
16 Acoustic Technology, Inc. , which is Dr. Basseouni' s l I7 firm, has been doing the FEMA 43 analysis that was performed 18 in response to the FEMA guidance, and it is performed for I9 daytime conditions in accordance with the requirements of that 20 guidance.
21 He has done these types of studies for all three.
22 He has been engaged to do these studies for all three CP and 23 now nuclear facilities.
24 Reporters, Inc.
In response to the Board's motion denying our, 25 or the Board's order denying our motion for summary l
. -. - - . . _ - . - . - . - - - .-_= = __ , . - . . - . _ . _..
9408 i
i
,Sim 5-11 1 disposition, we began the process of identifying the experts j
() 2 that we would need to call in response to the contention.
) 3 We discussed Eddleman Contention 58-C-3 with a '
f i 4 number of consultants and experts and eventually chose 5 Mr. Keast and his firm HMM Associates, which as you may i 6 recall, also performed the evacuation time estimate for the 7 Harris EPZ and therefore had some familiarity with the 8 situation here.
{
9 We asked that they undertake the analysis under 1
10 the conditions specified in the Eddleman contention which 1-
! 11 differ of course from those specified for FEMA 43 analysis.
12 Among the considerations predominant at the time
() 13 we made our identification of experts was the necessity for 14 ATI and Dr. Basseouni to continue his work on the FEMA 43 l
15 analysis in response to the concerns and the questions that r 16 FEMA had posed on his initial January 1985 report, and it -
i 17 was decided that he should concentrate in response to those 18 concerns, and it was of course those concerns which led I 19 eventualy to filings such as the October 7th letter that 20 we have been discussing here this morning.
I 21 This hearing has been long scheduled. Mr. ' Eddlemar. -
l 22 has'know that Mr. Basseouni would not be a witness since we 23 filed our testimony.
24 w; (~)J hporws. lac. Before the record is held open to receive any-25 thing such as what Mr. Eddleman is suggesting, we believe that
,- ,, _, -,- -, -------=-w-.-- ,, ,c--- -- c.,,--y, wm, e%-.r,,,y-m-,-,,. .,%,, ,v,y,,,-vw,y- -.w,,,,,,,wy.v3
9409 Sin 5-12 1 the Licensing Board should require some substantial showing O)
\- 2 of what would be brought here for the Board and the parties.
3 Mr. Eddleman has not outlined in any detail what 4 he believes that Dr. Basseouni would testify to. Not only 5 has he not given detail, but indeed what he has said i's 6 contradicted by a telephone discussion that we have just 7 had with Dr. Basseouni.
8 APParently this morning Dr. Basseouni called 9 Mr. Robert Black, applicant's Director of Emergency Prepared-10 ness and said that he had been called by Dr. Basseouni this 11 morning.
12 Mr. Black reports to me that he was called
() 13 by Dr. Basseouni this morning who reported to him that he, 14 Dr. Basseouni, had been first cdntacted by Mr. Eddleman this 15 morning, and according to our conversation with 16 Dr. Basseouni, he did not tell Mr. Eddleman that he had
~
17 concerns with either FEMA testimony or applicant's testimony.
18 Indeed, he has not even reviewed it i.n detail. He has simply I
thumbed thrcugh it.
19 l 20 Just to further clarify, he is still under l
21 contract to Carolina Power and Light and is indeed continuing 22 on the FEMA 43 analysis.
23 JUDGE KELLEY: So I if I understand you, you 24 object to Mr. Eddleman's proposition absent some further O(.s hporte fac.
l 25 showing concerning what Dr. Basseouni's appearance might
l 94]0 I
j contribute?
SjggE-13 2 MS. RIDGWAY: Yes, Your Honor. It is indeed 3 his representations to date. White they are sketchy, they j are directly contradicted by our information, and therefore 5 we think the Board is warranted before the record is held 6 open in requiring a more substantial showing.
7 JUDGE KELLEY: Are you saying further that 8 the Basseouni FEMA 43 study is irrelevant to nighttime and 9 sirens?
10 MS. RIDGMAY: It is certianly irrelevant to 11 nighttime, Your Honor. The FEMA 43 guidance specifically 12 requires consideration of summer daytime conditions. The
) 13 nighttime analysis required an entirely different set of 14 assumptions and that is the information to which Mr. Keast 15 is prepared to testify to.
16 end Sim Sue fois 17 18 19 20 21 22 l 23 24 Ace-F eral Reporters, Inc.
25
9411
- 6 -SueW j JUDGE KELLEY: Couldn't one convert the day to the 2 night by plugging in some parameters?
3 MS. RIDGWAY: Yes, it's not easily done. And we discussed that indeed in detail with Dr. Basseouni about, 4
5 y u know, the nature of his model when we were discussing with 6
the various experts about their capability to do this type of ;
i analysis.
7 l l
It is n t a ready conversion by any means, Your 8 l
! l 9
Honor. ;
i 10 JUDGE KELLEY: Mr. Rochlis. i 11 MR. ROCHLIS: Your Honor, at a minimum, we would '
l 12 require some kind of proffer of proof in the form of an O 13 affidavit from Dr. Basseouni. We feel that the request is ja untimely made, j i
15 At the time this testimony was filed on October 16 18th, Mr. Eddleman was aware of any discrepancies and could ;
j7 have requested Dr. Basseouni's presence at that time. l 18 In addition, as I understand it, Dr. Basseouni -- ,
19 JUDGE KELLEY: Excuse me. You say was aware of -- ,
I 20 MR. ROCHLIS: Any kind of differences or the fact 21 that Dr. Basseouni was no longer the expert that was employed 22 by the .spplicants on this particular contention, as admitted .
23 by the Board, for nighttime notification purposes. l
( 24 JUDGE KELLEY: Mr. Eddleman is telling us that this Asefeuforse Reporters, Inc.
25 morning in his conversation for the first time Dr. Basseouni l
l 1
9412
- 6co-SueW 1 indicated to him some disagreements. And I don't know of any b
2 direct notice to Mr. Eddleman prior to that time.
I 3 Do you?
4 MR. ROCHLIS: If that's -- other than the fact that 5 the ATI report was available prior to October 18th.
6 We would, at a minimum, request a proffer of proof 7 in the form of an affidavit from Mr. Basseouni as to what he l
8 would testify to and what his disagreements are. As we under-9 stand it, Dr. Bassecuni is an acoustical expert and that is ;
10 only one component with this particular contention.
11 JUDGE KELLEY: A significant component though, is 12 it not? ,
13 MR. ROCHLIS: And, in addition, this could have been 14 developed by Mr. Eddleman during the discovery process.
15 JUDGE KELLEY: If we took your suggested approach 16 though in terms of time, there isn't any way that that can be 17 done this week, right?
18 MR. ROCHLIS: That would be true, i 19 JUDGE KELLEY: Mr. Eddleman, can you give us any 20 further particulars about the respects in which Dr. Basseonni 21 indicated disagreement, your understanding of his grasp of 22 this material and the like? .
23 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, I called him some time after n
()
m Repo,ws. Inc.
24 8 o' clock this morning. I had tried after I got this tip in 25 which was -- it came in after -- over the week-end, after close
9413 l
- j -SueW of business on Friday, between then and Sunday. And I then 2 tried to reach Dr. Basseouni Sunday and was not able to locate 3 him. I was not able to get a call answered, in fact. I then 4 called this morning to ATI after 8 a.m. and I had a brief I
5 I conversation with him.
6 I guess it probably wasn't much over five minutes.
7 I didn't time it. I did take some notes. Now, there may be
. I 8 '
misunderstandings here. I'm not trying to say, because I 9 didn't tape record it or anything like that. But to the best ,
10 of my recollection, he did say to me that the contract with Il CP&L had expired. He also did express some concern about, 12 well, I'm not supposed to talk to you and this kind of thing.
O 13
.And I asked him if he was under contract, and he ;
14 indicated to me that the contract --
15 JUDGE KELLEY: I don't think that's a critical 16 point.
17 MR. EDDLEMAN: Okay.
18 JUDGE KELLEY: What about the substantive aspect?
19 MR. EDDLEMAN: He identified problems with FEMA's 20 position on what was adequate sound levels to be effective. He 21 said that the 10 dB above ambient, that he had a professional 22 disagreement on that. ~
23 He did state that -- he said he can't believe what
(~N
\-) 24 was said in the testimony. He said he had received it. He heefederal Reporters, Inc.
25 didn't indicate to me how extensively he had reviewed it. I
9414
-SueW I was in a hurry to get in here. I asked him: Would you be 2 willing if you were subpoenaed to come and testify. He said:
1 3 If I were called on to testify, I would do my duty.
4 JUDGE KELLEY: Where is Dr. Basseouni located?
1 5 Boston, Massachusetts. I MR. EDDLEMAN:
6 MS. RIDGWAY: Your Honor -- ,
7 JUDGE KELLEY: Just a minute. What about Mr. ;
8 Rochlis' suggestion? It does seem that this came up just this 9 morning as you described, and none of us here really know the
, l 10 extent to which Dr. Basseouni has studied the matters, and he II hasn't given any of us I gather a sort of study or conclusion 12 ' on anything.
O 13 What about Mr. Rochlis' suggestion that you ask ,
I4 Dr. Basseouni to supply us with an affidavit spelling out 15 fairly clearly references to testimony and the respects in 16 That would take a while, I understand which he may differ?
17 that.
f 18 But what about that approach?
' I9 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, I have no problem with that.
20 I mean, I can't guarantee that Dr. Basseouni would do it. .
l 21 I have, as I said, informed the Attorney General 22 And I understand they have been in contact with about this. -
23 him, too, the Attorney General's Office.
! (J 24 Am-Federal Reporters, Inc.
I think it would be a reasonable way to approach 25 this, since there seems to be disagreements about, you know, who
9415 V'">-SueW I said what and what does it mean and what is he really out to say g V
2 and how far has he reviewed it. I will say that until this tip 3 came into me, Ididn'thaveanyindicationthattherewere,youl 4 know, serious internal disagreements.
5 The other thing that he did mention directly to me i
6 was, you know, a disagreement in terms of what he was being asked 7 to say, you know, that he had a professional disagreement with i
8 that. And they told him: Well, we will just get somebody else j 9 who will testify how we want them to. !
10 JUDGE KELLEY: You had something else? !
II MS. RIDGWAY: Yes, Your Honor. I would just like 12 l it to be clear for the record that the Board is not requesting O I3 that Mr. Eddleman review the testimony and provide an affidavit I4 to the Board upon review of the testimony, but rather if he has 15 reviewed the testimony'and has disagreements I think that --
16 I meant Dr. Basseouni. I apologize. I'm informed 17 that I said Mr. Eddleman. I would want it to be clear that the 18 Board is not requesting that Dr. Basseouni review the testimony 19 at their request but rather if he has reviewed it and if he 20 has disagreements that he substantiate those in an affidavit.
21 JUDGE KELI5Y: We haven't decided yet what we are 22 going to do. I suppose we could request him to do that. It's -
23 an option.
! r 24 Do you object to that? Suppose we did decide, well, WFederal Caporters, Inc.
25 we want to find out what's on Dr. Basseouni's mind and so we
9416
- 6 SueW 1 write him a letter with copies to everybody and ask him to re-2 view it. Is there an objection to that? l 3 MS. RIDGWAY: We simply don't understand why the 4 Doard would undertake an inquiry of acoustical experts without 5 a basis for doing that. And we believe that that showing is 6 incumbent upon Mr. Eddleman to make.
7 There are certainly other experts in addition to l
8 Dr. Basseouni who have reviewed the testimony on both sides. I i
9 And there is no reason for singling out Dr. Basseouni unless j i
I 10 he has reviewed the testimony and has professional disagreementsj 11 with it.
i 12 (The Board members are conferring.) ,
13 JUDGE KELLEY: Well, we have Mr. Eddleman's pending ,
4 14 request and motion either for a late subpoena on his behalf or ,
15 Board action directed towards Dr. Bassecuni either for some 16 written presentation, possibly later as a witness. ,
17 We would like to take this under advisement at this .
18 point. We understand what the parties are saying. And in case,:
19 we have a scheduled hearing. We have witnesses. We have got '
20 P l enty to do today and tomorrow.
21 And we will have something further to say on this 22 later today or tomorrow. So, we will just have to get back to .
23 you. I don't know if we want to take any further action right
()
m neoonm. inc.
24 now.
25 We may have some further questions to ask. Mr. Rochlis?
I
l' 9417
- 6 -SueW 1 MR. ROCHLIS: I just have one clarification. As we 2 understand it, Mr. Eddleman would be calling Dr. Basseouni as .
l 3 his witness and this would not -- Dr. Basseouni would not be
, 4 called as a Board witness.
i 5 JUDGE KELLEY: Why do you understand that? We've 6 got an optional request and the Board is considering both.
7 Do you have any objection to that?
8 MR. ROCHLIS: Yes, we do.
9 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay, what's that?
10 MR. ROCHLIS: There is no indication that Dr. l l
11 Basseouni would -- there is no indication that Dr. Basseouni 1
12 i has reviewed the testimony at this time. That's what we need
(:) 13 to find out first as a predicate, Mr. Chairman. ,
14 I think we need to address that question first.
15 If he has, then maybe we can go on from there.
16 JUDGE KELLEY: You may be right that it would be premature for the Board to act now and call Basseouni. Maybe 17 l i
18 we don't know enough.
19 What I don't want is the implication that that's 20 just not even in our minds at all. Mr. Eddleman has asked 21 us to do precisely that. And at some point, maybe we will do 22 that depending on how all things seem to. weigh. -
23 But apart from the predicate point, do you have
() 24 wesere reponm, Inc.
any other objection to that?
I 25 MR. ROCHLIS: Well, we would object.. We would objecd
- A 9418 I to the Board calling Dr. Basseouni as the Board's witness --
j#gSueW 2 JUDGE KELLEY: Why?
3 MR. ROCHLIS: -- as the Board's expe'rt witness.
4 JUDGE KELLEY: Apart from the predicate point you 5 just made, do you have other objections?
6 MR. ROCHLIS: I will defer to Ms. Moore on that. ,
1 i l 7 MS. MOORE: Your Honor, on behalf of the Staff we ;
i 8 would object to the calling of Dr. Basseouni as an expert i I
9 in light of the fact that we have presented expert testimony
- l 10 and that the summer showing would, we believe, have to be nade II at that point.
12 l ' JUDGE KELLEY: Could you restate the showing, O 13 please?
i
~
Id MS. MOORE: I was afraid you might ask me thst. !
15 I believe that there would -have to be a showing that sor.m '
16 information was lacking from either the Staff or the Applicants' i I l ,
I7 testimony, and the Applicant and Staff would have to be given 18 an opportunity to address that information.
4 I9 JUDGE KELLEY: We will te.ke that into .:otsideration.
20 Is there anything else at this point?
2I MS. RIDGWAY: Just for further clarification of the
- l )
22 record, Your Honor, if Dr. Basseouni has disagreements as
~
23 outlined, for example, with the assumption of the10 dB above 24 ambient I would just want to clarify for the record again that na -Fasers c: oonees,anc.
25 that is part of the FEMA-43 guidance, the NUREG 0654 guidance.
l
9419 l
I And again it's quite -- really quite distinct from
,#q pSueW 2 the' nighttime analysis which is the subject of the contention 3 here. It may be relevant to any other work that he is doing,
- 4 but it is not relevant to the subject of this contention which 5 is nighttime notification.
6 JUDGE KELLEY: Again, the Board doesn't propose to 7 do anything right now. Let us think on this a little bit more 8 and we will get back to it today or tomorrow.
9 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, may I --
10 JUDGE KELLEY: Yes, Mr. Eddleman.
11 MR. EDDLEMAN: -- say a couple of things? One is 12 that since there is only one of me and I have no backup staff, O 13 I'm going to have to do any contacting myself.
14 And so I may need, you know, depending on the 15 schedule of this hearing if I'm going to carry something -
l 16 forward in the next day or two I will have to do it on break 17 time or lunch time.
18 And I will try to do it as much as possible --
19 JUDGE KELLEY: We will factor that -- I understand 20 your point, Mr. Eddleman. And certainly whatever we decide 21 ought to be done, we will factor that into the equation.
22 I might just suggest, I don't think the Board means-23 to impose telephone embargoes on Dr. Basseouni but I don't think l ( 24 any further contact is necessary, certainly from our standpoint, m noo,tm, ene.
l 23 And we will get back to you today or tomorrow, and
9420
- 6-10-SueW j in the light of that if you want to contact him, or whatever O 2 you want to do, that's fine. But there is no burden on you to 3 pursue Dr. Bassecuni at this break, for example. Or any other 4 party.
5 MR. EDDLEMAN: Okay. The other thing -- is that 6 all, Judge?
7 JUDGE KELLEY: Yeah.
8 MR. EDDLEMAN: The other thing I would like to do I 9 is call the Board and the parties attention to my Interrogatory 10 Number G-ll which applied to -- it's a general interrogatory 1 11 which applied to the interrogatories on this contention.
12 JUDGE KELLEY: Is your mike on?
13 MR. EDDLEMAN: It is.
14 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay.
l 15 MR. EDDLEMAN: I'm not close enough to it I guess'.
k, 16 How is this?
l I
I l'7 It reads as follows: For each answer to each i
I 18 interrogatory herein, or any subpart or part thereof, please t
19 identify each item of information in possession of Applicants 20 (including facts, opinions of experts and documents) which 21 (a) contradicts the answer you made in (i) in whole (ii) in 1
22 Part. Please identify each such part for each item of informa .
I 23 tion identified. (B) Casts doubt on your answer (i) in whole
() 24 me-Fenne neortm, inc.
(ii) in part. Please identify all documents not already I 25 identified in response to Parts A and B above which pertains I
l l
l . 9421
=#6- -SueW ; to any item of information asked for in A or B above and j 2 identify for each such document what information items it 3 contains and what answers each such item is related to.
4 The response is: Applicants have no such informa-5 tion..
6 And I have not received any update on it.
7 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay. Do you want to resume?
I 8 MR. EDDLEMAN: Sure.
9 JUDGE KELLEY: Fine.
10 MR. EDDLEMAN: Thank you.
11 CROSS EXAMINATION 12 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) 13 Q I believe we left off on Page 8 of you gentlemen's
- 14 joint testimony. If we may return there, please.
15 In Answer 10, the statement is made: "The fixed 16 siren system has been designed in accordance with FEMA 17 guidance..."
l l
18 What FEMA guidance is referred to there, please?
19 A (Witness Keast) The FEMA guidance is Appendix 3 20 of NUREG 0654, 21 Q Is that all?
22 A Well, I think that has been clarified somewhat by .
1 23 a document called FEMA-43. But the guidance and objectives of O 24 NJ Reporters, Inc.
eae two are the same.
25 Q Mr. Joyner, do you agree with those answers?
i 9422
]6 '4-SueW l A (Witness Joyner) Certainly. Appendix 3 of 0654 2 gives the basic guidance and FEMA-43 only expands upon that 3 guidance.
4 Q Thank you. In the second paragraph of Answer 10, 5 Mr. Keast, there is one new siren that was excluded.
6 Do you know where that one is located?
7 A (Witness Keast) Only in general, Mr. Eddleman.
8 It's in the southwest corner of the EPZ.
9 Q Let me ask you, if we can refer to Applicants' 10 Exhibit 46 for a moment -- this thing is a large map. My 11 copy spreads out to about I guess three and a half feet to i
12 about three and a half feet.
() 13 Mr. Keast, what I would-like to ask you about this i 14 now is, does this show the sixty-eight sirens for your study,
. 15 is that --
l i
16 A That is correct. l l
l l'7 0 Okay. So, it doesn't show any of the others, I l
\
18 is that correct? l 19 A That is correct.
l 20 Q Okay. Now --
21 A I'm sorry. I said a moment ago that the one 22 additional siren was to be in the southwest corner of the EPZ. -
23 I should have said southeast.
( 24 Q Okay.
W Caporters, Inc.
! 25 A So, if I could have that corrected, it's in the l
9423 06#*-SueW I southeast corner of the EPZ.
2 All right, sir.
Q Now, the analysis you speak of 3 in Answer 10, when you say: "I have analyzed the performance 4 of a sixty-eight siren system. . .," is that the analysis that you 5 then go on to explain in Answer 11 and following?
6 A Yes, it is.
7 Q Okay. Now, this analysis is basically a calcula-8 tional analysis; is that right?
9 It's not a thing where you went out and actually 10 measured the sound at all of these locations, is it?
II A Yes, that's correct.
12 Okay.
Q Now, let me ask you, gentlemen of the panel,
' O 13 are any of you familiar with the approximately sixty people 14 who stated, or who it was stated in the public critique session ,
15 on the emergency plan exercise this May 17th and 18th did not 16 hear the sirens?
I 17 Are any of you familiar with that?
i 18 A I've heard of that.
19 Okay.
Q Have any of you others heard of it?
20 A (Witness Joyner) I'm familiar -- I believe you 21 are talking about the fifty-one at the hearing?
22 Q I think it -- it might have been fifty-one. It -
23 might have been sixty-one.
24 A Right. I'm familiar with it.
wassem c porms, Inc.
I 25 (Witness Mileti) I've heard of this through the
9424 7 1 course of conversations with other people.
D6(_^^)-SueW 2 Q Okay. I would like to ask you, are any of you 3 familiar with the locations where those people live?
4 A (Witness Keast) The home locations?
5 0 Yes, sir.
6 A No.
7 (Witness Joyner) I believe that's the New Hill 8 community.
9 Q Okay. Now, is New Hill shown cnthe map that is 10 Applicants' Exhibit 46?
11 .. (Witness Keast) Yes, it is.
12 Q All right. Now, the topographic indications --
) i 13 pardon me. The topographic information and the labeling of l l
14 features on this map are in a lighter color than the siren I 15 coverage. And so I'm wondering whether it's possible to l 16 actually locate New Hill and then indicate which siren, since l 17 the sirens are numbered on this map so we can have an identifi-i
~
18 cation of where that is on this map?
19 A Let me give that a try.
20 Q Okay.
21 A The location of the Shearon-Harris Plant is clear 22 on the map I believe. It has -- it has been screened to high -
23 light the siren coverage contours.
24 The New Hill community, as I recall, is northwest mm R.oo,ters. anc.
25 of there in the vicinity of the siren which is Number 24.
. 9425
- 5-SueW 1 JUDGE KELLEY: Is that on the outer edge or in the )
2 outer ring or in a bit, or what?
3 WITNESS KEAST: No, sir. From the plant it's j 4 approximately four inches in a northwesterly direction.
5 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) 6 Q Now, I see a label on here right near the center I
7 intersection, slightly to the right of where the center creases 8 intersect, labeled Shearon-Harris Plant. It's sort of rectangle.
9 And then if I go up about six inches and over about 10 four, I come to Siren 24. Is that the same one?
11 A Well, along Route 1, starting with Apex we have 12 Siren 22, Siren 25. After Siren 25, if you move almost due (1) 13 west you come to Siren 24, and it's my recollection that that's 14 the closest one to New Hill. l l
END #6 15 I
, Joe flws 16 l
I 17 18 .
19 20 21 -
22 ,
23 24 Amfederd Reporters, Inc.
25 l
I 7-1-JosWal 9426
() 1 JUDGE KELLEY: This may muddy the water, but this 10-1-85 later map shows the numbers a lot more clearly 2
3 than the big one, at least in the set that I have got.
4 We don't have that map in yet, do we?
5 MR. EDDLEMAN: I was just going to ask whether 1
l 6 Applicant's would object having it introduced. ,
J l
7 MS. RIDGWAY: It is not at all relevant to the 8 contention. I i
9 It does not show the contours for purposes of l 10 nighttime notification. I don't suppose we would object t
11 to having it admitted for purposes of identifying where the 12 l sirens are, for that limited purpose.
) l 13 JUDGE KELLEY: Just as a mechanical way at least 14 for the time being, can we let it in to that extent; it 15 just seems easier to find the numbers.
16 Go ahead.
i 17 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, I guess I would want it 18 in for all purposes. And I would recall the ruling that '
19 was made on a similar request on the first phase of the i
j 20 WB-3 hearings that just concluded earlier last month, but 21 as to this, I just want to know how we are going to identify 22 it also. .i i
23 JUDGE KELLEY: Why don't we cross -- the point 24 you are making now, Mr. Eddleman, can we hold that in um hems n o wwn.ine. ,
25 reserve until it comes up for some purpose, and then we can t
7-2-JoeWal 9427 l
~
t argue it if we need to.
2 Thank you. Go ahead.
3 MR. EDDLEMAN: Well, are you asking about the 4 identification point also? I just want to know -- should
, I i
5 I just read the title of this map? I 6 JUDGE KELLEY: Yeah, that would be a good idea. ;
i 7 MR. EDDLEMAN: All right. Now, I have here 4 l 1
8 map that is about two feet wide and over three feet tall, !
- 9 and in the lower left it reads
- Revised 60 dBC coverage 10 within the EPZ of the Shearon Harris Nuclear Power Plant. l 11 The date is 10-1-85. October 1st.
I 12 l And in the lower right corner, it says computer
( 13 analysis by Acoustic Technology, Inc., and it is my under-14 standing that this map was provided as an attachment to the 15 October 7, 1985 letter from Mr. Black at CP&L to Mr. Wingo, 16 of FEMA, concerning additional sirens.
17 And this map appears to show the siren numbers :
18 in bold type more clearly than they can be seen on Applicant's 19 Exhibit 46.
I 20 Mr. Keast, do you have that map that I have just 21 been referring to before you, the 60 dBC map?
22 WITNESS KEAST: No, I do no t . .
23 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing)
! ) 24 Q May I show it to him?
25 MS. RIDGWAY: I will provide a copy to Mr. Keast. ;
9428 7-3-JoeWal 1 MR. EDDLEMAN: That is fine.
2 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) 3 Q Now, Judge, should we mark this for identification 4 JUDGE KELLEY: Yes.
5 MR. EDDLEMAN: I am not sure what number exhibit 6 it is.
7 JUDGE KELLEY: We will make this Applicants l i
8 whatever it is? -
9 MS. RIDGWAY: That would be Applicants Exhibit 10 No. 47. We do not, however, have sufficient copies to 11 provide to the Reporter.
12 JUDGE KELLEY: That is all right. We can fix O 13 that up later. I mean not today. We don't need them 14 today.
15 MS. RIDGWAY: We will try to work it out. I 16 suppose it is really incumbent on Mr. Eddleman, since he j 17 wants it marked for identification.
18 JUDGE KELLEY: Yeah, would you try to work that i 19 out.
20 MS. RIDGWAY: Yes, Your Honor.
l 21 JUDGE KELLEY: Thank you. Again, entered-for the j i
22 limited purpose previously stated. Go ahead, Mr. Eddleman. .
1 KXX INDEX 23 (Above mentioned documented is l l
! () 24
'm neaanm. s~.
marked Applicants Exhibit No. 47, 25 for identification.)
1
9429 7-+6onWal '
I BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing)
(~}
v 2
Q Okay. And we are still reserving the question 3
of whether other purposes may be brought up later.
4 Mr. Keast, on the map that has just been identified I
5 as Applicants 47, the Harris Plant, again as shown in bold 6
type, near the center of that map, n' ear sirens No. 28 to the ;
7 northeast and Siren 40, is that correct?
i 8 A Yes, that is correct. l 9 0 Okay. And then if we move immediately to the 10 kind of north-northwest of Siren 40, we will come to a siren 11 marked Siren 24, is that correct?
l 12 ' A Yes.
(a) 13 Q And is diat the same -- is the numbering system 14 on this map, to your knowledge, the same as that used on 15 ' Applicants Exhibit 46, which has been introduced, the 16 nighttime oconstic coverage map that you sponsor?
17 l A Yes.
18 Q Okay. So this allows us to see more clearly 19 where that Siren 24 is, does it not?
20 ' A Yes. It is a comfort to my old eyes.
i 21 Q I think it is a comfort to all of our eyes. Now, l 22 I sort of hate to go back to Applicants 46, but I think I am ;
23 going to have to because the contour that is the sort of a l 7
t' !
I 24 dark line there on Applicants 46, with cross dashes looking l Am4W Reporters, Inc.
25 like kind of a standard railroad map symbol, map symbol for i
7-5-JonWal 9430 ,
l
,s 1 a railroad, except that these things are encircling the l N., l l 2 various sirens. ! l 1
3 That is the 80 dB contour, is it not on 4 Applicants' 46.
5 A Let me just correct myself here now. Now that 6 you have provided me with a legible map, I can read the l
7 designation New Hill on this map, and it appears to me to be 8 just northeast of Siren 25, as opposed to what I said 9 originally, which is southeast of Siren 24.
t 10 So, my original location of New Hill was incorrect.
I 11 l Q It is northeast of Siren 25, along the highway 12 I and railroad, is that correct?
I r~'3
- 13 A Yeah, that is where I spot it.
i 14 l Q Okay. Now, with that correction, let me ask you 15 to refer again to Applicants Exhibit 46, which is the map i
16 of nighttime pressure levels that you are sponsoring -- sound i
17 1 pressure levels.
18 Now, on that map, if we look at Siren 25, it 19 appears to me that New Hill is written very lightly at a 20 , crossroads to the northeast of Siren 25, on Applicants 21 Exhibit 46, do you see that? l 22 A Yeah. ,
- 23) Q Okay. Now, that is on your Exhibit 46 inside
<m Y
(_) 24 l Wm-FewW R@omns, lnc. ;
the line -- dark line with the crosshatching across it --
l 25 which indicates 80 dB coverage contour, is it not? j l
l
9431 7-6-Jo:Wal .
I A Yes, it is. '
2 O And if we went back to the map identified as 3
Applicants 47, and find New Hill around Siren 25 there, that 4
is inside a dark dashed contour, which is stated on that map 5 to be a 70 dBC contour for Siren 35, is it not?
6 MS. RIDGWAY: Your Honor, I am going to interpose l
7 an objection here. I It seems to me that what we are leading 8 into is a comparison of the contours on Applicants Exhibit 46 9 with Applicants Exhibit 47.
10 I think that Mr. Keast has addressed in his Il testimony nighttime attenuation. That is indeed the subject 12 of this contention, and I don't see any benefit to be gained O 13 from comparing the two maps at this point.
1 14 JUDGE KELLEY: Mr. Eddleman? '
15 '
MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, if I may. The point that 16 I am trying to get at here is that if this coverage difference 17 is 10 dB higher at nighttine than it is in the daytime map, 18 which has been identified as Applicants 47, the FEMA 43 map, 19 I gather, then the fact that this large number of people t i
20 didn't hear the sirens in the daytime at that location would !
21 cast doubt on whether they could hear it at night, with only 22 l 10 dB more. -
f 23 l JUDGE KELLEY: I wasn't clear really that I -- can 24 wFenwei n. conn , inc.
I ask you, Ms. Ridgway, about whether these two maps were 25 sort of applies and oranges, or whether just be adding on ten
7-7-JotWal 9432 1 or s tbtracting ten have the same map.
2 I thought you indicated they were apples and 3 oranges.
4 MS. RIDGWAY: Indeed, Your Honor, they are.
5 Mr. Keast's analysis is very distinct from the FEMA 43 l
6 analysis. It was done for nighttime conditions specifically. j 7 The conditions are spelled out in the attachment to his !
8 testimony.
I 9 And as he explains in his testimony, attenuation 1 1
10 that the propogation of sound differs greatly at night from i 11 they way that it does in the daytime, and I think that is 12 all set forth in his testimony and is properly cross-examined; O 13 on. _
14 I think 47 is irrelevant to that point and to the 15 contentio rn 16 JUDGE KELLEY: Was it your intention at any point 17 to introduce 47?
18 MS. RIDGWAY: No, Your Honor. That is irrelevant 19 to the contention.
t 20 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, may I make one more 21 comment?
22 JUDGE KELLEY: Yes, go ahead. ,
23 MR. EDDLEMAN: What I am trying to compare is !
l
()
m Reconm inc.
24 applies and apples, namely decibels of sound, and whether 25 people can hear it under one condition or another condition L
9433 7-8-Jo:Wal 1 is I think exactly the matter of this contention.
2 JUDGE KELLEY: I thought we were just looking 3 at the night, with the windows closed, basically.
4 MR. EDDLEMAN: That is correct, sir, but what I am 5 saying is that you can make some inferences about that from 6 what you can hear with a sound pressure level.
i 7 Regardless of what the conditions are, the question l
8 of the sound level coverage that you have is what really makes 9 you able to hear it. ,
10 In other words, it doesn't matter to me whether l 11 it is raining outside or a nice and clear day or night, if 12- I can hear it.
O k# 13 If I can't hear it, it also doesn't make any 14 difference. That is what I am trying to get at; whether 15 i people can hear it.
16 JUDGE KELLEY: We think this point is fairly 17 debatable. We are going to let this exhibit in for general 18 purposes to see -- let Mr. Eddleman pursue his line for the 19 moment at least.
20 It may be apples and oranges, in which case I 21 assume the witnesses can spell that out, and put it in !
22 context, but we don't want to preclude'the question at this ,
23 point, so we will overrule the objection, and we will allow
() 24 Ase-Fe:Isrei Reporters, Inc.
47 in generally, bearing in mind that'it is a FEMA 43 daytime 25 map
7-9-JoeWal 9434 l
XX DEX 1 (Whereupon, document previously 2 identified as Applicants Exhibit No. 47, i 3 is admitted into evidence.)
4 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) 5 Q Now, let me go back to what I started to ask about.
< l 6 Mr. Keast, do you recall whether you answered the question about 7 whether the New Hill area was inside the 70 dBC contour on i
8 Applicants Exhibit 47 for Siren 25?
9 A (Witness Keast) It appea.s to be for the most f 10 part, yes. ,
11 The intersection there, that is labelled New Hill, Q
12 is inside that contour, isn't it? ,
( 13 A Yeah.
i t
d 14 Q Now, unfortunately on 47, the siren numbers are i
15 clear, but the little dots are a lot harder for me to see, so 16 I would like to jump back to 46, where the dots I believe 17 are clearer, and refer again to the same Siren 25.
18 JUDGE KELLEY: Just for clarity, are there any 19 dots on 477 i I ,
t 20 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, I believe there are. ' '
21 JUDGE KELLEY: Was there an intent to put the 22 houses on 47? That is the question that I have. I am not .l 4 23 sure that there was.
('s 24 i
(_) MR. EDDLEMAN: I don't know. I m neoorters. Inc.
25 MS. RIDGWAY: No, Your Honor. I
7-10-JosWal 9435 -
1 JUDGE KELLEY: Thank you.
2 MR. EDDLEMAN: Well, in any event the houses are 3 shown on 46, aren't they?
4 t WITNESS KEASi': Is that a question to me, sir?
5 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) 6 Q Yes, sir.
7 A Yes, they are shown. .
I t
8 Q Okay. Now, if you will look at Exhibit 46 and l 9 refer to Siren 25, which I measure something a little above l i
10 six inches north of the Shearton Harris indication, that l l
Il rectangle that says Shearon Harris Plant, and then about 12 one inch on the map west of there, between that six inches
() 13 north of Harris- and the fold in the middle of the map.
14 JUDGE KELLEY: Don't know if it is crucial, but i 15 we show five inches from Shearon Harris to the siren.
16 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge I will accept the Board's k
17 interpretation. t 18 JUDGE KELLEY: The Board's ruler says five 19 inches.
l 20 MR. EDDLEMAN: Well, since the Board has a ruler 21 and I am going by eye, I think I should defer to a better 22 measuring instrument. .
23 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing)
() 24 mesmww n==mm. inc Q At any rate, at five inches north and one inch l
25 west, approximately, there is Siren 25, and then there are l
i
7-ll-JonNa1 9436 I shown a pretty good scattering of houses in there.
2 I would guess that is about 20 or 30, mostly on I 3 the east side, the eastern side of Siren 25, around the New 4 Hill area, and south of there.
5 Would that be a fair statement, Mr. Keast?
6 A Yes.
t 7 Q Okay. Now, on this map the 80 dB contour for [
8 nighttime conditions, which is indicated by the railroad i i 9 light, cross-hatch dark line going around the siren, .that ,
10 line crosses to the east of the near south road there that Il
- passes through New Hill. Rather abo w what appears to me 12 to be the next crossroads up. Pardon my eyes. It looks
( 13 like there is a cross road .about -- less than one inch north 14 of New Hill off of that north-south highway. !
15 Do you see an indication like that?
16 A Yes, I do.
17 Q Okay. And then it proceeds not quite straight, t
18 but sort of diagonally toward the southeast to cross what 19 I gather would be -- is that Highway 1 or Highway 64 there?
l 20 The southeast to northwest highway that passes through 21 New Hill?
22 A I believe that is what is called Old Highway 1. .
23 0 Okay. And that is maybe about a half inch east ,
24 of New Hill is where that 80 dBC contour crosses that A m e e w s t e o ,w n,r m.
l 25 highway, is it not?
I 7-12-JonWal 9437 1 A I would rate it as a quarter inch.
2 O Okay. I guess maybe we will have to get the 3 Board's ruler back in here. It looks like a big quarter 4 inch to me.
3 JUDGE KELLEY: Three-eighths.
6 (Laughter.)
7 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) j 8 Q Okay. And from there it continues southeast just i '
9 a very small amount, and then turns almost -dte south for 10 about -- well some fraction of an inch. It looks a little 11 more than half an inch to me.
l .
12 l Again, I will defer to the Board's ruler if
() 13 they want to measure, and then it turns back southwest and i
14 seems to come through the cloverleaf, which I would gather 15 is the present U. S. 1 intersecting that North-South road.
16 Do you see that?
17 A Yes, I do.
18 0 Is that an accurate reading that I have been ,
19 giving you?
I 20 A Yeah, I will go along with that. ;
21 Q Okay. Now, the houses that we were referring i
22 to earlier, the scattering of 20 or 30, mostly why inside ,
, 23 ' the countour we described, some to the east and rather more 4
() 24 6 neoonws, Inc.
it looks like to me to the west -- some of them are to the 25 east, and I think rather more of them are to the west -- but
, , - - _ , _ . _ . . , _ - , _ . - . - ~ . . ,, _ , .
j 7-13-JonWal -
l l
1 1 fairly close -- that is within a quarter to half inch each f--
(
2 way -- of the north-south road that is passing through New 3 Hill, is that fair?
4 A Yeah.
5 Q Okay. Now, I don't -- what I want to try to do 6 is match that up with the dashed 70 dBC contour on i
7 Applicants Exhibit 47 for Siren 25, and on that one I f 8 think the roads are somewhat clearer. ,
l 9 The scale is probably different, slightly ;
i 10 different. Somewhat different. A scale is given on 11 Applicant's 46. I see a scale of miles on Applicants 47 i
12 4 in the lower right corner, -- what is that, two inches to i
l
() 13 the mile, Judge?
l 14 JUDGE KELLEY: About one and an eighth, roughly.
15 MR. EDDLEMAN: Inches to the mile?
16 JUDGE KELLEY: Yeah.
)
, 17 MR. EDDLEMAN: Okay. And there is not a one to 18 some many thousands, but I am s tre we can convert that.
19 We have it in the record. ,
20 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) i 1 21 Q I would like to ask you, Mr. Keast, on l
22 Applicants Exhibit 47, referring again to the area somewhat ..
23 to ' the northeast of Siren 25 at New Hill, there we can see
() 24 weserei neo,ws, inc.
more clearly the road that is going from a little bit west 25 of north to a little bit east of south, crossing what I
9439 I 7-14-JosWad 1 believe you identified as Old U. S. 1 at New Hill, can we 2 not?
3 A Describe that road again to me please?
4 Q It is -- from the indication of New Hill to the 5 northeast of Siren 25, there appears to be just to the left 6 of the word, 'New,' a road which is traveling from roughly 7
a little bit west of north toward a little bit east of south, 8 passing through New Hill. Do you see that?
9 A Yes.
10 Q Okay. And it is crossing what I believe is the !
11 Old U. S. I that you identified traveling from generally 12 southwest to northeast at New Hill also, is it not?
13 A Yes.
14 Q Okay. Now, the cloverleaf that is almost 15 l intersected -- almost included within this dashed 70 dBC .
16 contour on this map, does that appear to be the same location 17 that is shown by the cloverleaf that we found was intersected-18 Y the 80 dBC contour on your nighttime map, Applicant's 46?
4 19 A Yes, tnd 7. 20 HS fols.
21 22 .
! 23 j (~) 24 W Reporters, Inc.
i l 25 l
3 l
I !!
l
9440 l Sim 8-1 ; Q Okay. And it then bends out with basically O 2 the eeme eneve oe curve,out to em eree, suasect to checx er 3
the ruler, and I am eyeballing on Applicant's 47 as maybe a a
slightly less than 3/8ths of an inch northeast of New Hill r ssing the old U.S. 1 highway. Do you see what I am 5
6 indicating there?
7 A (Witness Keast) Yes.
Q Is that a fair statement?
8 A Yes.
9 10 Q Okay. And then the 70 DBC dashed contour on jj Applicant's 47 then continues on somewhat to the west of 12 north, and after about half an inch it begins to curve more O is """'" ' "*"" ""* " ""*" '"* " "*"'" "**' """*"*"""
34 slightly west of north to slightly east of south road that 15 g es through New Hill, it crosses that about an inch perhaps 16 up from New Hill along the road on Applicant's 47. Is that j7 a fair statement?
18 A I agree with that, yes.
j9 Q So as far as these cc : tours are concerned in i 20 relation to these houses, wouldn' t it be f air to say that 21 the 70 DBC dashed contour on Applicant's Exhibit 47, which 22 is the FEMA 43 daytime conditions 3ncompasses most, if not 23 all, say virtually all of the houses near New-Hill which are' 24 also encompassd by the 80 DBC dark and cross-dashed like S ,_; n r iac.
25 a railroad contour for nighttime conditions on Applicant's
9441 S m 8-2 1 Exhibit 46?
c:) 2 A I think that is a reasonable approximation for 3 this particular geographic location.
4 Q Okay. It appears that virtually all those i
5 dots on Applicant's Exhibit 46 that shows those houses would 6 fall from north of that clover leaf, which I think is
- 7 regular U.S. 1, but it is the first clover leaf south of 8 New Hill along that road from northwest of northeast of i 9 south up toward where both of those contours intersect the 10 road about an inch on both maps north of New Hill. Virtually 11 all those would fall within those two contours toward the 12 siren?
l () 13 MR. ROCHLIS: Mr. Chairman, I would like to 14 interpose an objection here. We are having a real nice l 15 lesson map reading, but the map speaks for itself. And.
16 if we are going to continue a micro-analysis of the entire l 17 map, we will be here for about three weeks.
i j 18 MR. EDDLEMAN: I don't intend to do any such 19 analysis, and in fact this is my last question establishing 20 what it is, and then I want to ask the question about what 21 it means.
22 JUDGE KELLEY: Go ahead.
i 23 MR. EDDLEMAN: Well, could I get an answer to l
24 that question?
kcef Repo,ters, Inc.
25 WITNESS DEAST: I don't remember the question.
i i
_ .. ____ , _ _ _ ~
9442 iSim 8-3 i Would you repeat it, please?
( 2 MR. EDDLEMAN: I will try.
3 BY MR. EDDLEMAN:
4 Q It is true looking at these two maps that I 5 virtually all of the house dots that are shown on Applicant's
> 6 Exhibit 47 -- pardon me, on Applicant's 46, which is your 7 nighttime contour, sound contour map, fall within the same 8 area, that is from north and a little bit east of the clover 9 leaf intersection below New Hill, a little more than an inch 10 below it on Applicant's 46, within the contours of both the i
11 80 DBC on the nighttime map and the 70 DBC for the same siren, 4
12 No. 25, on the daytime map. That is true, isn't it?
() 13 A (Witness Keast) I don't agree with the designation 14 " virtually all," but I would accept the kind of general 15 conclusion that those houses that fall within the 70 DB 16 contour for the daytime in that general area are about the 17 same as those houses that fall within the 80 DB contour for i
18 the nighttime condition in that general area.
19 Q Okay. I am looking at it and I can't count more 20 than a couple of houses that I think might be outside one 21 contour and inside the other.
22 JUDGE KELLEY: Can't we just settle that by 23 counting?
! g 24 MR. EDDLEMAN: I guess we can, wMi hponen, 'ac.
25 JUDGE KELLEY: And four purposes of the question L
9443' i
l l
Sim 8-4 .
1 Just go ahead.
O. 2 MR. EDDLEMAN: Okay. We could overlay these 3 two things at the approprf. ate scale. 9. I can move on then.
! 4- BY MR. EDDLEMAN:
I 1 5 Q You have stated that the reople who wera reporting 6 that they didn't hear the sirens during the-May 17th and 18th 7 emergency planning exercise were living around New Hill.
8 A (Witness Keast) I have not stated that. 'fou have 9 stated that.
2
- 10 Q Well, let me ask you, and I may have to pull the 3
11 l l transcript out because I didn' t really expect them not to
] 12 know this. Would you accept, subject to check against the
() 13 transcript of that meeting, that that transcript shows that 14 50 or more persons residing in the area of New Hill were t
1 15 reported to have not heard the sirens during the May 17th 16 and 18th, the emergency planning exercise?
i
- 17 MR. ROCHLIS
- I didn' t oppose an cbjection to 18 that question. I mean we don't know the where's and where-19 fore's and the locations of the houses. We don't know the 20 specifics behind-that~. -
I think that-is an impossible question.
2I MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, I think we have established i
22 that virtually all the houses around New Hill fall within 23 these contours.
24 Aew h porm n lac.
JUDGE KELLEY:' That seems fair enough.
25 Mr. Eddleman, I would assume that we will have to establish 1
1
_ . , , . , . . _ . . _ , ~ , _ _ _ - . , . . - , - _ . _ . . _ , __,,,_,.__._.,c-.., . . . , , - _ _ _ . _..- ,. _ ,.. - _ , , - _ , _ , . _ . . _ .
9444 Sim 8-5 j whether that particular siren was even working at that time 2 to get anywhere on this. But all of the sirens aren't even 3 in at this point; isn't that correct? I ask for information.
4 MS. RIDGWAY:. Yes, Your Honor, and indeed you 5 make a good point. Applicants are not able to confirm that 6 that siren was indeed operating at that time. It had been 7 installed, and it is something that we are not able to 8 confirn one way or another.
9 one very possible explanation for what happened 10 is that it was not working.
11 JUDGE KELLEY: Could you confirm it by tomorrow?
12 MS. RIDGEWAY: No, Your Honor. We have no way
() 13 of confirming that ever.
14 JUDGE l'ELLEY: Well, Mr. Eddleman'has been 15 pursuing a particular line and I don't want to throw him 16 off track, but that is one point that obviously has to be 17 spoken to. Let me give it back to you at the moment.
18 MS. RIDGWAY:. Your Honor, just for clarification, 19 it is the only siren about which we had complaints. All of 20 the complaints were focused around that siren, and therefore 21 it seems more likely than not, based on what we have been 22 able to determine about the situation, that there was some 23 problem with its operation, either it not operating outright p 24 Ace-FiJ Reporters, Inc.
or because of ---
25 JUDGE KELLEY: If this reasily becomes I
9445 l 4
I' Sim 8-6 I significant, couldn't that be.a rebuttal point? It sounds 3
O 2 like you are testifying at the moment. We want to get the 3 information , but ----
4 MS. RIDGWAY: Certainly.
5 JUDGE KELLEY: Go ahead, Mr. Eddleman.
6 MR. EDDLEMAN: Okay.
7 BY MR. EDDLEMAN:
4 8 Q Do you recall the question?
9 A (Witness Keast) Let's try again.
10 Q All right. Could you accept, subject to check i
i Il against the transcript, and I believe it starts in at about a .
12 pages 40 and 41 of the public critique section of the
() 13 emergency planning exercise. I don't know if that is in 14 your briefing book or not.' Do you'have that transcript 15 available to you?
16 A I don't believe I do, no.
17 Q Okay. Well, would you be willing to accept, 18 subject to check against that transcript, that it was reported 19 at that session that 50 or more persons residing in the area 20 of New Hill did not hear the sirens during the May 17th and 21 18th emergency planning exercise?
22 A I will accept that. .
23 MR. EDDLEMAN: ~ Judge, I think I have established 24 f~) the facts, and I don't want to go any farther with this than ytJ Reporwn, lac.
25 I have to. So I would like to turn to another line now.
i I
9446 Sim 8-7 1 JUDGE KELLEY: Well, let me just pick up at this 2 point. It seems that having probed into this to the extent 3 that we have that it would be desirable to know whether or 4 not that siren was working that day. I am not quite sure I 5 understand.
6 Maybe you could check and come back, Ms. Ridgway, 7 but isn' t there some way of finding out whether that siren 8 was at least installed at that point? Well, pou say it was 9 installed. I am sorry.
10 MS. RIDGWAY: Your Honor, it was indeed installed, 11 yes.
12 JUDGE KELLEY: But you don't know whether it was
() 13 working or not?
14 MS. RIDGWAY: No. As was explained at the FEMA 15 public meeting and has been explained since, those sirens 16 had not at that time been formally tested in any way. .They 17 were just in the process of installation testing, and the only 18 purpose for which the siren system was. activated at that time 19 was so that they could test EBS activation procedures.
20 It would appear because all of the complaints 1
21 were focused about the inability to hear the siren, because 22 they were all focused on that one particular siren, and because 23 it has operated since when it has been tested, that perhaps l 24 the problem was that it was not operative at that particular w n.p ,,m, Inc.
25 time.
9447 Sin 8-8 1 JUDGE KELLEY: Well, whatever you can do by way (J 2 of further information on the point would be appreciated. I 3 suppose that in the absence of anything further, the record 4 just shows what it shows and maybe it was working and maybe 5 it wasn't and we will just have to assess the evidence in the 6 light of that.
7 MS. RIDGWAY: I will verify my understanding.
8 JUDGE KELLEY: Thank you.
9 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, in light of this, I would
~
10 like to make a couple of comments for the record.
11 I think that the map, Applicant's Exhibit 47, 12 will show some other contours from other sirens that come
(~')
13, into that general area, although they don't go right to the I
14' center of New Hill.
15 And I would like to also call the attention of 16 the Board and parties to che statement of counsel for 17 applicants that there~was no way to verify whether or not that 18 l siren was working because that is one of the parts of one 19 of the EPX contentions that the Board is about rule on.
20 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay.
21 MR. EDDLEMAN: That is that there should be a 22 method of verifying whether the sirens work.
23 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay.
24 MR. EDDLEMAN: With that, I would like to move Ace 4Ai Reporters, Inc.
25 on to answer 12 on page 9, gentlemen, and I believe this is
. 9448
>Sim 8-9 1 also an answer by Mr. Keast.
2 Now is that answer 12 at the top of page 9, 3 do you have that, sir?
I 4 WITNESS KEAST: Yes, I do.
5 MR. EDDLEMAN: Okay.
I 6 BY MR. EDDLEMAN:
7 Q First you give your estimate of how many
< 8 people could be awakened, and then you state " Based on infor-9 mation from Arbitron Rating Service," and you give some more 10 information after that.
11 What information from Arbitron Rating Service 12 are you referring to there, sir?
( 13 A (Witness Keast) The Arbitron Rating Service,
) 14 which as you probably know is a television rating service, 15 their office in the Raleigh area reported to us their 16 estimate of the number of people who are awake at night.
i l
17 Q Now did they give that estimate by certain
! 18 hours2.083333e-4 days <br />0.005 hours <br />2.97619e-5 weeks <br />6.849e-6 months <br />?
19 A The only thing they gave by hours was the number.
l 20 of people who might be listening to the radio or watching 21 television.
22 Q Were these numbers specific to the Harris EPZ
- 23 or were they for the Raleigh area?
f A I suspect they were probably for the Raleigh wu (~) an.24 u
25 area.
I l 2
9449 Sim 8-10 1 Q Do you know if any of that information was 2 supplied in the documents provided in the october 22nd 3 letter's attachments?
4 A No, I do not.
5 Q Now do you know what the Arbitron survey area 6 for the Raleigh office is, how big it is?
7 A No, I do not.
8 Q Did you seek that information in connection 9 with the information you used here?
10 A No. I have no reason for believing that the 11 number of people who are awake would differ significantly 12 between the Raleigh area and other parts of this part of
( ) 13 the country or maybe the whole country.
14 Q Well, did you make any comparisons of those 15 Arbitron estimates of people awake at those hours for other 16 areas in North Carolina or the southeast?
17 A No, I did not.
18 Q Okay. In question and answer 13 this gives 19 a summary of how you made that you refer to in answer 12 20 of the 69 percent; is that correct?
21 A Yes.
22 Q Okay. Now:let me interrupt here a minute.
23 May I ask, applicants, do you have the documents 24 from Arbitron that he based this information on?
Ace-F 9al Reporters, Inc.
25 MS. RIDCWAY: Mr. Eddleman, it was information
l 9450
\
Sim 8-11 j that was obtained orally, and the information is relfected 2
only in the testimony.
3 MR. EDDtEMAN Okey.
4 BY MR. EDDLEMAN:
Q The answer 13 describing this calculation, the 5
6 sound coveragte was calculated with a computer; is that 7
correct, Mr. Keast?
A (Witness Keast) Yes, that is correct..
8 9 Q Okay. Now what computer model is this? Does
~
10 it have a name or an identification?
11 A Yes, it is our model. It is called SIREP.
12 Q SIREP, and it is an HMM proprietary model?
(), 13 A Well, no. We sell it.
ja Q Okay. But it is a model that your firm 15 developed?
16 A Yes, that is correct.
17 Q What are the inputs that you used to SIREP?
18 A The inputs in general of weather conditions and 19 train conditions around each siren.
20 Q Okay. Let's start in with the weather 21 conditions. What weather conditions are required as inputs 22 for SIREP?
23 A The weather conditions shown.in Attachment 1
, 24 to my testimony. I am sorry, I suspect that is Attachment 4 .
Ace-F Reporters, Inc.
25 Q The ones shown in Attachment 4.
4 7 - . . - - . . . - . - . . - , . . - , . - _ . , . - . . , .
. 9451
.Sim 8-12 1 A Let me just check that designation.
i 2 Certainly.
Q 3 A Yes, Attachment 4 is correct.
4 These are then assumed to be the same over the Q
5 whole EPZ for the purposes of this model?
6 A Yes.
7 Q Okay. Now the wind speed of one mile an hour 8 that is shown on Attachment 4 is shown as the mode. That is 9 the most frequently occurring value in a distribution?
10 A Yes.
II Q Is this distribution in even miles per hour, 12 1, 0, 2, 3 and the like? .
13 A I don't remember. Let me see if I have any I4 information on that.
15 Okay.
Q 16 A While I am routing through these papers, I might 17 add that I did a sensitivity analysis and determined that 18
'for wind speeds at least up to three miles per hour, which 19 is as far as I went, it has no effects on the resulti,. So 20 it is not critical to the wind speed.
21 Q Was the sensitivity analysis made by running 22 the computer runs with different wind speeds?
23 g yes, 24 Ac e h,.mn. ine.
Q Please go ahead and look up rhe information.
25 A What I have here with me are joint distributions
9452 Sim 8-13 1 of wind speed in classes.
) 2 Q Stability classes?
i 3 A No. I am talking -- there are also stability 4 classes, but I am talking about wind speed classes, groupings, 5 if you will.
6 Q Oh, okay. And what are those groupings?
l 7 A Three-quarters to 3.5 miles per hour, 3. 5 to-8 7.5, et cetera, and also calm. And I am not going to go up 9 any higher because it is not really pertinent.
10 Q What you are saying is you don' t go any higher 11 because there is not data on wind speeds like that be common 12 at night in the Harris EPZ; is that right?
() 13 A The highest data in what I have here goes up to 14 12.5 miles an hour.
15 Q Now I want to ask you one more thing about this.
j 16 If your ranges are calm from three quarters to 3.5 and 3.5 i 17 to 7 and on, how do you get one mile an hour as the mode out 18 of that data?
19 A Do you have the same weather data that I have?
i l 20 Q Can you tell me what the title is on it and I 21 will see if it is in the attachments that I got from that i
22 October 22nd letter.
23 A The particular one that I have is from June 24 through August. These are these '73 to '85 data summaries.
(Ace-Fgel Reporws, Inc.
l 25 Q Yes, I have that as my item "c" I belive if I
.y.,.,_. _. .
l 9453 1
4 Sim 8-14 1 can just locate it.
O 2 A This has the computer designation LOWNDSPD on
- 3 which is written in here 10 meters for stability "f".
)EndSim 4
.!Suo fois . .
j 5 I d
6 7
h a
l 9 l
10
! 11 i
12 -
13 i
! 14 ,
I 15 '
i 16 i
} 17 4
l 18 s
! 19 i
20 i
21 22 i
i 23 i
i l 24
- hp mn, lac.
l 25 i
l t
l
. _ , . . - - , , . . . _ , , , . _ . - . . _ . . _ , , , . . , , , . . , . _ , , _ _ . . . ..,,_._,..m_.. . _ __ . . - _ . _ , _ _ , , _ . .., , - _.....,,m._,_ _ ,
-- . .. . . _ _ _ _ ._ . _ _ -- . . . = . . .
9454 !
I l
l #9-1-Sue W 1 Q Excuse me. I'm just having a little difficulty
() 2 locating my copy of that. I have -- it says one a.m. through 3 a.m. which -- I have those computer things. LOWNDSPD, which 4 is 19 of thi's Item C.
5 A I'm looking at a joint distribution. By joint l 6 distribution, I mean a distribution of wind speeds versus wind i
7 direction for a given stability class.
8 Q The thing I have doesn't specifically say joint 9 distribution, but it does have a number of different data 10 items including lower wind speed, differential temperature, 11 D point and so on.
12 Is that the same document?
! t
() 13 JUDGE KELLEY: I think we are going to have to tie l
14 down just exactly what it is we are talking about.
I MR. EDDLEMAN: May I stand up and compare what j 15 ,
, 16 I've got with what he has got? I think it's the same stuff.
17 MS. RIDGWAY: I think I can make it easier just I 18 by providing him with a copy of what you have and then he can l l l 19 compara it for himself.
20 MR. EDDLEMAN: That will ba fine.
- 21 JUDGE KELLEY
- Cine. Let's do it t it way.
22 (Ms. Ridgway hands the witness a document.)
.I 23 WITNESS KEAST: Okay. I hy,ve what you have. And f 1 24 as I have indicated in ey testi:rony, my crialysis was based noonm. ine.
25 upon 4 a.m. in July in sco'4 CRiet. And I'm looking for that i
l r
L m - . - . _ - _
_ . _ _ . _ . g._ _.-
9455 09-2-SueW 1 in this June, July, August.
kJ 2 JUDGE KELLEY: Was this material exchanged in 3 discovery?
4 MR. EDDLEMAN: This was supplied on October 22nd 5 as an attachment --
6 JUDGE KELLEY: In that --
7 MR. EDDLEMAN: -- to Ms. Ridgway's letter, which --
8 it didn't mention discovery explicitly but that's the 9 information that has been supplied.
l 10 JUDGE KELLEY: Particularly in view of all the f 11 l discussion, maybe you could just describe this for the record,
. 12 Ms. Ridgway.
- ~s l
(,) 13 MS. RIDGWAY: I would be happy to except that I '
I 14 just handed my only copy of it to Mr. Keast. ;
}
15 MR. EDDLEMAN: !
I can describe it if you want.
16 JUDGE KELLEY: Go ahead, Mr. Eddleman.
17 MR. EDDLEMAN: All right. This is part of Item C 18 as identified in Ms. Ridgway's October 22nd letter to me. And :
19 the part we are looking at is computer printouts, the back pages, i
20 the first two are something different. Then, it starts in with i
21 Carolina Power and Light Company, Shearon-Harris Nuclear Power 22 Plant, on site meteorological data for the period 1973 through .I I
23 6/30/85, one a.m. through Blank a.m. , months of June, July and i 24 August.
442-FA E990def t, Inc.
25 And then each page apparently is labeled for the i
9456 39-3-SueW 1 different months. And the printout was made apparently, 2 according to the upper right corner, at 9:05, Tuesday, August 3 6th, 1985.
4 Oh, I'm sorry. Some of those are different dates 5 when they were printed out. But they are all the same title 6 of the meteorological data.
7 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) 8 Q And I believe, Mr. Kaast, you are referring to the 9 one for July which I believe is the last sheet. It's the 10 last sheet in my copy.
11 A (Witness Kaast) I think that part of the problem 12 here is that in addition to the material that we have in front
( 13 of us, I was supplied with about three inches of computer _
j li printouts which I went through.
15 And in the particular area of wind speed were the l
! 16 conditions which are described in the testimony, I had an l
l 17 average wind speed of two point zero nine miles per hour, a 4
t 18 median wind speed of two miles per hour, and a module wind spe 19 of one mile per hour. 1 I
20 - And the particular number that I used was the I
21 module wind speed. But, as I pointed out a moment ago, it i
2 22 would have made no difference had I chosen anything from zero ,
23 up to at least three miles per hour.
24 JUDGE KELLEY: I am reluctant to muddy the water cepenen, Inc.
25 any further, but Mr. Eddleman, in your description I thought I I
th 9 49 /
O g IMAGE EVALUATION d e,
'\ v.' 4[/e, TEST TARGET (MT-3) h e[4[s#g3 f ,3
- d. .e
+ k',
.:f
's.'
L5 m_=.
~
ti. ly ? O l,I m__
k-a Il I.25 g. i.4 g i.6 n- o = . ma 4---- -- --
- - 150mm - - - - - -
---.---p.
I I
- 6. _- . _ _ _ __ ~
Eh d -- h ,
e spf,s;.
o 4
c _ - _ -
%w+ f 1
l 9457
- 9-4-SueW 1 heard you say that you had data for different dates. I've got i
2 four different sheets here. They are all August 5th, 1985 i
3 but they are different times of day seemingly.
4 MR. EDDLEMAN: Yes, sir. And the first sheet that 5 I have I believe indicates August the 6th. The first one that 6 I have is labeled 9:05, Tuesday, August 6th. I presume these 7 are just the dates they were printed out of the computer.
8 But they are all titled the same thing. They are 9 all titled with that big description I read earlier about 4
10 Carolina Power and Light and Shearon-Harris on site meteorolo-i 11 l gical data.
12 ! JUDGE KELLEY: That's helpful. This is just a
() 13 computer printout time. That's what was confusing me apparently, i
14 Okay. Go ahead.
15 MR. EDDLEMAN: All right, sir. i 16 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) i 17 0 In any event, you did not use the mean wind speed ;
\
18' of a little over two miles an hour. You used the module wind !
19 speed of one in your analysis? l
'l 20 A That is correct. And, as I pointed out, it makes j 21 no difference.
22 Q Okay. Now, do you mean literally zero difference b 23 or how much difference?
24 A Zero difference.
newn.w.
n-I 25 0 Zero. Okay. In other words, if you look at the l
l i _ . - _ . . . . - _ _ _ . .- . . . _ , _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ , _ . _ , _ . . . - . , . . , . _ . . _ , _ _ _ . _ _ , , , _ _ _ _ . , _ , . . . . . .
9458 09-5-SueW 1 computer printouts from one with one and one with three miles 2 an hour wind speed, difference in these contours is none whatso-3 ever?
4 A Yes, because the propagation conditions are 5 controlled by-the temperature gradient. And the wind speed and 6 the wind direction have no bearing at all on the results.
-7 Q That's in your study; is that correct?
8 A That's correct.
9 Q Okuy. Now, let me ask you about the temperature 10 gradient.
11 Can you show me where on Attachment 4 the variable 12 that shows temperature gradient is?
O 13 A Ok y. The temperature gradient is deduced from the 14 differential temperature one and differential temperature two i
15 - degrees F designations in this table. l l
16 Q And you are referring for those te the Item C l t
17 '
information that we discussed earlier, those computer printouts l l
18 and not to Attachment 4, aren't you?
19 A I'm sorry. I don't know what you are referring 20 to when you say Item C. !
21 Q Well, you are looking at the same set of computer 22 printouts we were talking about just a moment ago, are you ,
23 not?
24 A Yes.
n oorms, inc.
25 0 l And those differential temperatures are not shown i .
I l . - . _ . _ . . . _ _ . . - . ~ .
9459, l l
(9-6-SueW 1 on Attachment 4 to your testimony, are they?
,m
\ 2 A No. What I have used is the stability class which 3 is deduced from the differential temperatures.
4 Q Okay. Now, how does --
5 A Given the differential temperature it's possible 6 to determine the stability class.
7 Q Oka~y. Well, first, what is a differential tempera-8 ture?
9 A It's the temperature difference between two dif-10 ferent heights.
4 i
11 Q And what are the heights?
{
12 A The heights in this case I suspect are 10 and 90
()
i 13 meters, but I don't know for sure.
14 , Q You don't know? f I
i 15 l A No. i 16 Q Okay. The -- how does the computer deduce from I
17 that a distribution of temperature in the air? '
18 Does it have a formula or an algorithm? Can you !
t 19 explain that? l l
l 20 A Whose computer?
21 Q Well, I'm presuming your computer.
22 A Okay. In other words, given the stability class .
23 how does my computer use the temperature gradient; is that the 24 question?
gS Ase-F ) Reporters, Ire.
i 25 Q Yes. If you will answer that, then I will come back
_ , _ . _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~ _ _ ,'
9460
- 9-7-SueW l and ask about how you get the stability class.
2 A The stability class was given me by the meteorolo-3 gist at Carolina Power and Light who interpreted these dif-4 ferential temperature data on here. .
5 Q So, this meteorologist interpreted those dif-6 ferential temperature data and then gave you the stability 7 class that's on Attachment 4. I 8 And then your computer program takes that stability 9 class and translates it into a temperature distribution vertical-10 ly in the air; is that right?
11 f A Yes.
12 ' Q Okay. How does the computer program do that?
s : !
_) 13 l A It assumes that the temperature varies with the 14 l algorithm of heicht, i
15 Algorithm to what base? Is there a constant Q
I
. factor?
16! j!
17' A In general, algorithm to the base E.
18 Q Okay. And is there an actual relationship? Can 19 l you tell me, you know, some number times Log E, height in i
20 l meters, feet or whatever?
21 A I certainly can't remember the actual relationship,'
22 no. .i 23 Q Okay. But it's algorithmic. Now, Log of height f 24
(~') from the ground, correct? f wau xwonm. nm. l 25 A Yes. l l
9461 39-8-SueW I Q Okay.
2 A Because you can't start at the ground, it's Log -
3 of height from some minimum --
4 Q Right. Because you would have negative infinity at 5 zero height, right?
6 A This methodology I might mention is well established i
7 in the micrometeorological field. I am not a micrometeorologist, 8 but it's referred to in a number of different books.
9 Q Okay. And there is no reference either to that !
10 jxDll micrometeorology or to even SIREP directly in the testimony?
II l A I've described the model. The trade name is not !
! I 12 j important. !
13 Well, okay. Now, you also use some geographical Q
l I4 inputs, do you not? Can you describe to me the data source j 15 from which those inputs were taken and in what form the data 16 was fed to the computer? -
I7 A Yes. We read data from the U.S.G.S. maps. l 18 Okay.
Q I9 A The data in general consists of terrain information; 20 in ground cover information and in some cases, not particularly 1
21 pertinent here, whether or not you are propagating over water l 22 as opposed to land. -
23 Q Okay. Now, terrain information would be such 24 things as the elevation that you could read off a contour map?
nn-v neaanm eoc.
25
- A Yeah. We are primarily interested in terrain l
9462 09-9-suew 1 barriers.
2 Q Okay. And those barriers would be things like 3 hills, ridges?
4 A Yes.
i 5 Q Okay. And how does the computer have that? Does 6 it have it as like a digital grid, or is it a map that it can 7 actually read back? l
)
8 A It has it as elevations as a function of distance 9, away from the siren. i i
10 0 In the various directions that you discuss later j i
in --
11 f 4 l
l I
12 ! A Yes, sixteen dif ferent directions. <
O is! o oker. so. vou ere eekine the three hundred end !
14 sixty degree circle around the siren, dividing it into the
! 6 15 I sixteen compass points and then you have a variation of elevation 16 with distance along each of those directions? !
i 17 A Yes. .
I 18 Q Okay. Now, what other data along those sixteen l l
19 directions do you feed into the computer? [
I 20 A Let me get that out and I will be specific.
21 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, I think I can wrap this up I l
t 22 but any time it's okay to interrupt if you want to. J l
23 JUDGE KELLEY: Do you have a line that you can l l
A wt) necon.cs, Inc.
24 finish in the next five or ten minutes, something like that?
25 MR. EDDLEMAN: I think I can finish this part
i 9463
- 9-10-SueW I of it. I want to go on some more on the computer program, but f
\ 2 in five minutes I think I can wrap up this.
3 JUDGE KELLEY: Fine. Why don't you do that and 4 we will take a break?
$ MR. EDDLEMAN: Thank you.
6 BY MR..EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) 7 Q All right.
7 8 A With respect to the terrain conditions, we feed 9 in information as to whether or not the surrounding area is what!
10 we call built up, essentially an urban area with houses located 11 densely enough so that someone would be down in among the build !
i 12 ings if he had to hear the siren.
O
(_/ 13 We rather arbitrarily divide the ground surface i l
I4 into hard surface and soft surface. As I mentioned earlier, }
i i
l I 15 j the hard surface is most likely in this case to be water. l 16 Q And the soft surface is everything else?
17 A Practically everything else. Except maybe pave-i 18 ment. Yeah.
19 Q All right. l i
f 1 20 A The presence or absence of dense forest is an s
- I 21 element of information. And then finally the terrain informa- )
22 tion. ,
23 0 okay. And that terrain information is just the 24 elevation; is that right?
67 c.oo,ws, sne.
25 A Relative elevations. Yes.
, _ _ _ -- - - -. - . . _ . . .~ . . -
9464
'#9-11-Suew I Q All right. Okay. So, the computer knows the
( 2 elevation of the siren and also the elevations in the various 3 directions?
4 A Yeah.
5 Q Okay. Now, as to dense forests, what is the i
6 criterion for being a dense forest?
7 A We use more than two hundred feet of forest between 8 the siren and the listener.
9 Q Okay. So, if along a direction the U.S.G.S. map ,
t 10 shows woods for two hundred feet along any of --
11 A Two hundred or more.
12 Q Two hundred or more feet, then that would be put ;
() 13 in as dense forest for the computer program?
i l
14 A Yes.
15 0 What's the criterion of density for a built up i
16 area? Or, is it density? (
\
17 ' How many buildings or what criteria do you have I 18 to meet to be defined as a built up area? l 19 A In general, a pink area on the U.S.G.S. map. l 20 Q Okay. And the maps that you have would show that?
21 A Yeah.
22 Q So, you just feed that straight into the computer. .
23 Now, is this information actually read off the maps by people, 24 or is it read by the computer?
ae-v neco,ws. Inc.
25 A By people unfortunately.
I 9465 9-12-SueW 1 Q Okay. So there would be input sheets derived from 1
O 2 the maps that showed how this data went in?
3 A Yes.
4 Q Do you have those available to you here?
5 A No, I don't.
l 6 Q Okay. Now, the terrain data that you've 7 described and the weather data that you have described, are 8 those all of the inputs that this thing requires? I mean, be-9 yond -- the characteristics of the siren I guess would be anothep ,
j 10 variable?
11 A Yeah.
12 Q Okay. .Beyond that, are there other variables i i
() 13 that this SIREP program needs to make its calculations to these j j 14 contours?
j 15 A No. l j i
- 16 0 Okay. And what data on the sirens do you feed intoi i
17 it? I i !
i j 18 A The height of the siren above the ground, the 19 frequency of the fundamental tone of the siren, the sound level 20 output of the siren at a hundred feet.
i
! 21 Q Okay. Now, these sirens are rated at a hundred and i
[ 22 twenty-five dB at a hundred feet; is that right? .
23 A Yes.
24 Q Now, what kind of dB is that? Is that dB without caporwes, anc.
25 weighting?
9466 9-13-SueW 1 A Essentially it is dB without sei@ltdng. We are 2 talking about the fundamental tone of the siren. It would be 3 equivalent to call it dBC if you wish.
4 Q Okay. So, dB or dBC either way.
5 A Yes.
6 Q On that 125 dB or dBC at a hundred feet. Is the l 7 height of these sirens above the ground uniform or does it 8 vary?
9 Do you know?
10 A All of these sirens are installed at approximately 11 fifty feet above the ground.
l 12 l 0 Okay. Do you have any idea how much that varies? j i
() 13 A I have no idea how much it varies, but it's not 14 critical to the analysis.
15 0 Okay. Did you perform a sensitivity analysis by 16 varying the sirens height or -- ,
( l 17 l A No, I did not. !
18 Q -- were they all put in at fifty feet to this l
l 19 program? i 20 A They were all put in at fifty feet, that is 21 correct.
22 Q Okay. And those are all the variables that were ,
23 put in on the height and the fundamental tone frequency and the 24 rating of output?
neomn. w.
25 A Yes.
I
9467 1
- 9-14-SueW1 Q Okay. Now, you refer in your Answer 14 to some 2 computational algorithms.
3 MR. EDDLEMAN: I think this is where we had better 4 break, because I want to go into this in some detail, Judge.
5 JUDGE KELLEY: Fine. We will break at this point.
6 It's not quite 12:15. Suppose we take an hour and resume at !
7 1:15.
8 Thank you.
l 9 (Whereupon, the hearing is recessed at 12:15 p.m.,
j 10 to reconvene at 1:23 p.m., this same date.)
11
, END #9
! Joo flws 12
(/ 13 14 15 I 16 :
i 17 i 18 !
,: i i 19
! 20 I i
~
21 i
22 ,
i 23 24 l
neuerw i,inc.
25
B-1-Jo;Wal 9468 1
(1:23 p.m.) ;
i ) i 2 A,[ T E E N,Q R E 1 E 11 I, q E l
I 3 JUDGE KELLEY: We are back on the record.
4 Whereupon, ,
I 5 DENNIS S. MILETI, ,
6 and l 7 DAVID N. KEAST, 8; and i
9 ALVIN H. JOYNER, 10 resumes the stand, and further testified as follows:
II ' JUDGE KELLEY: We had over the lunch break 12 ; some discussion of the posture of Dr. Bassiouni and Mr.
O k/ 13 h Eddleman's earlier request and comments of the other I!
14 parties, and we have for the parties now a proposal as 15 j to how to proceed, for your comment, and we won't ask you to comment immediately but perhaps we can just tell you now 16 f 17l what the proposal is , and then at the next break we might 18 ask you to speak to it.
I9 It would be as follows: The Board Chairman, 20 ' myself, would call Dr. Bassiouni this afternoon, and just 21 recite briefly what has taken place here so far, and determine 22 from him whether he has in his position the Applicants' ,
23 tesimony, the FEMA testimony.
I understand he has at least looked at it, but
( () 24 W D neoonen,tnc.
! 25 whether he has had enough of an opportunity to read it to l l !
l l
Jo:Wal 10 9469 g
- . I form any kind of opinion, and if he hasn't, would he proceed '
) 2 to do so.
4 l 3 I also would like to ask him in view of the i 4 conflict this morning whether, as he understands it, he is i
i 3 currently under contract to CP&L.
I 6 And I wouldn' t propose to the merits at all, but i 7 simply then set up a telephone conference tomorrow or ;
i 8 Wednesday, depending upon Dr. Bassiouni's need for time to i l 9 read the material.
10 And I would tell him though that we would set
) ,
11 l up a conference for a specific time, and the purpose basically l i !
12 ! would be to determine whether he does have significant 13 disagreements with the testimony on file r -and beyond that l
14 whether he either would wish to or whether he is willing to ,
i 15 - prepare an affidavit setting forth whatever disagreements i i
i 16 1 he has and possibly looking toward testimony further down i
I
) 17 ' the line, but not really reaching that point yet, where i 18 you are focusing on his willingness to put down on paper 19 what his concerns are.
! 20, Then we would establish a time for a conference i
- i i
21 tomorrow or Wednesday, here if possible. We will inquire i t
- j. 22 whether the Holiday Inn can set up a conferencing arrange- .f'
{ 23 ment, and in the telephone conference the Board would take i
\
i 24 the lead in asking Dr. Bassiouni about his concerns, if }
nose,=,., inc.
' 25 he has any, and then the parties in turn would have an I
i I
-.,._._._-,.-.-.,.____.~..._._._._-_.__....-_,._--_--.-__.._,-...._~.__.-...--.m,,, . _ . _ . . - - . _ . - _ . , . , , , , ..m._
10-3-JosWal 9470 1 opportunity to comment or ask questions. Presumably if he O 2 has no concerns, that would be the end of that, and if he 3 does have concerns, then we would discuss f urther the 4 possibility of his working up an affidavit as to what those 5 concerns are.
6 It would then be evaluated, and there would be 7 a determination at some near point about whether he should I
8 te sti fy . I 9 And that is basically what we have in mind. .
+
10 If you get to the point of writing affidavits, and the point l 11 of traveling and witnessing and so on, there is some expense I
12 ! questions. It didn't seem to us that ambient questions were I
() 13 particularly significant in light of what we are proposing 14 as a first step, and beyond that we ask other parties not 15 to contact Dr. Bassiouni pending the telephone conference.
16 i So, those are the basic outline of what we have i
i 17 ' in mind, and your just having heard it now why don't we leave 18 it there, and we can ask you to comment on it after the next i
19 break. Is that satisfactory?
20 MR. EDDLEMAN: That is fine, Judge.
21 MR. ROCHLIS: Yes, Your Honor.
l 1
22 MR. EDDLEMAN: Over lunch, I had a conversation ,1 l
23 with a representative of the Attorney General. I think if l 24 this is adopted, they would want to be included in the n o wan Inc l i
25 conference call. l l
l l
i l
! I
10-4-Jo2Wal 9471-
! I JUDGE KELLEY: We would probably arrange that.
1 2 okay. We will go back to Mr. Eddleman, cross-examination.
i
) 3 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) i 4 Q Thank you, Judge. Gentlemen, we were in the i 5 middle of computers, but I wanted to back up just a moment 6 to the contention itself, which I believe is on page 7 of i i
7 your prefiled testimony.
]
)
8 The last sentence of the contention says the ;
i
' 9 plan should provide automatic phone dialing equipment 10 to transmit an emergency message to all in the EPZ.
11 I hope that is not wired to the door. It turns 12 l the lights out every time it opens. We have done an O 13 experiment here, a rd it does not appear to be a consistent 14 difficulty.
15 - I want to ask you gentlemen, did you do any l
i 16 inquiry in connection with this testimony into the avail-i I7 ability of functioning of -- or reliability of automatic j 18 phone dialing equipment?
i I9 MS, RIDGWAY: Excuse me. Mr. Eddleman, was that t
20 ' any inquiry in conjunction with the testimony?
I i 21 MR. EDDLEMAN: Yes, or its preparation. Any j r
22 in conjunction with this contention. '!
' I 23 MS. RIDGWAY: Thank you. ;
2#
m noso ,w n,Inc.
A (Witness Mileti) No.
25 A (Witness Keast) No.
- 9472 10-5-JoeWal 1 A (Witness Joyner) No.
l 2 Q Thank you. All right. Mr. Keast, concerning l 3 the weather conditions in Attachment 4, did you do sensitivity 4 studies about variation in the stability class in connection 5 with preparing this testimony?
6 A (Witness Keast) No. The stability class is i 7 so prevailing for all of the summer nighttime hours, and ;
8 all of the summer months, that it was tnnecessary to do so.
9 Q Now is that the Askal stability class F? -
10 A Yes. l 11 l 0 So, if we wanted to check on that, we could look 12 ' up the parameters for Stability Class F, and compare them ;
( --- -
13 3 with the information that is in those monthly data sheets.
14 A Yes.
I 15 ! Q okay. All right. Now, did you perform any 16 sensitivity studies related to any of the other variables l
17 l here beyond the one that you mentioned on wind speed?
18 A No, I only did the stability analysis for that 19 variable that I felt was most critical to the output of the 20' model.
21 Q Now, do you mean stability analysis, or sensitivity i !
22 analysis? . .
23 A I am sorry, I meant sensitivity analysis. I 24 Q Okay. So you felt the wind speed variable was cowen, ine. ,
j 25 most critical?
I i i
l 1
10-6-Jo Wal 9473 1
l ;
1 1 r%
1 A That is correct. j i N-) ;
2 Q All right, sir. Now, let me try to come back l 3 to the inputs here . Was the input with respect to ,
4 temperature always the same when you were running this l l
5 model? f i
6 A Yes, it was.
7 Q And likewise for barometric pressure and 8 relative humidity?
9 A Yes.
10 0 And stability class and wind direction?
II l A Yes.
, 11 l Q Okay. Now, you have completed sound levels. What
/ i
'~'
13 !I sort of variability in the computed sound levels was there?
l I41 Was there any uncertai rty of variability?
1 15ah A The medel does not determire uncertainty. It I0 ' computes a value. Whatever uncertainty there is associated I7f with it is in the comparision of those computed values with i
18 the measured -- with corresponding measured data, and I have 19 testified as to what that is.
20 ! O That is over on page 10 in the second paragraph 21 l from the bottom, is it not?
22 A Yes, it is. -
23 Q Okay. Now, that paragraph talks about comparing (3 -
( ) 24 l the results of your computer model with measurements of the wasere neoorms, Inc. '
25 energy equivalent level of actual siren sounds. Is that l
9474 10-7-JoeWal I energy equivalent level -- is that just the straight dB without O 2 regard to adjustment, or weighting? l I (
i l l l 3 A An energy equivalent level is the level of a 4 steady sound which contains the same energy as a fluctuating i
- 5 sound.
l t
6 Q Okay. So what you are measuring is an energy ;
i i
- 7 level comparable to what the average of what the fluctuating l Is that right? I 8
sound is over a time period?
t 9- A It is the average of the antilogarithm of the ;
1 jo sound level. The logarithm of the average of the antilogs.
11 Q Let's see now. If you take an antilog of 12; something that is a log, you come back to energy, right, 33 and then you take a log of that, is that what you are 14 l saying? <
- i i 15 ; A What I am saying is we take sound level which is I
i 16 ' fluctuating in time, right; we convert it from sound level i 4 17 in decibels to sound pressure. We average the pressures l
f ja over this time period of interest, and we take the logarithm !
I 19 of that average. That is the energy equivalent level.
i 20 Q okay. So the fact that you are taking dB, turning
- l l 21 it into an energy level that fluctuates, taking the average
! l of that fluctuating level, and then taking that average l 22 ,
l 23 energy level and turning it back into dB, is that right? .
i f
()
m cooen m ,Inc.
24 A Well, when we use the word, ' level,' we mean 25 quantities that are in decibels. What we are averaging are l _ _ _ . _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ , _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _
1 10-8-Jo Wal 9475 i
f- I not levels. They are pressures. l
(_)) l 2 Q Pressures. Okay. Now, it says that you did that i l
I 3 comparison of the energy equivalent levels compared with 4 field measurements obtained by other organizations.
i 5 What organizations were those?
l 1'
6 A Stone and Webster and Bolt, Beranek and Newman.
7 Q And were those field measurements made in the 8l Shearon Harris EPZ?
I 9 A No, they were not.
10 ! Q Okay. What kind of terrain were they made in, 11 do you know?
12 ; A Terrain quite similar. They were made 'in the
('N
\
t
' '/ 13 northeast.
Id ! O Do you know what sites?
IS I A Pilgrim and Millstone.
I6 l Q Both of those are rather near a coast, aren't 17 ;! they?
I 18 A Yes.
39 All right. The -- you say on average the Q
computer model results agree with field measurements to 20 l 21 withia about 0.9 dB. Now, does that mean that you took 22 every location where the model predicts a number, measures -
the number there, and averaged them, is that how that was 23f O,
24 done?
'x J I 6 rews namnm. uw.
25 A No. This 0.9 dB is the average of the dif ferencesi l
l i
10-9-JoLWal 9476 1 between the levels predicted by the model and the levels
) 2 measured in the field.
3 0 Okay. And over how many points was that avera;.5 l
4 taken, do you know? :
5 A Eighty-one.
6 Q Eighty-one points. For a single siren? ,
l 7 A No. This was a variety of sirens. ,
- i a Q Okay. But a total of cighty-one points. Do you f 9 know the distances from the sirens that those points were?
10 A They ranged from perhaps five hundred feet to 11 , perhaps ten thousand feet.
12 l Q All right. Now, the standard deviation of 4.4
() 13 dB, is that a standard deviation of the difference?
L I4 A That is the standard deviation of the differences 15 around the mean of 0.9.
4 16 Q Okay. So, in other words the difference was 0.9 17 plus or minus 4.4 standard deviation? ,
18 A Plus or minus 4.4 dB.
l 19 Q Right. dB, standard deviation. That is ,
20 correct, isn't it? i 21 A Yes. ;
22 Q Okay. Now, can you tell me specifically what ,
23 temperature gradients were used in this modelirg that you 24 did?
mese,wes, one.
25 A The modeling that we did for the Shearon Harris
[
10-10-JorWal 9477 gg 1 EPZ was done for Stability P.
V 2 0 okay. What I am asking is if the ground temperature 3 was 71 degrees, as shown in your Attachment 4, what gradient 4 with height would you have?
5 You explained to me'that it was a logarithemic 6 relationship, and I am just wondering if you can give us a 7 specific example of that for this study. !
l 8 A For the Shearon Harris Study? l 1
9 Q Yes, sir.
i 10 A The temperature that we used is the temperature 11 at ten meters, not at ground. . ;
12 4 0 okay. And is that seventy-one degrees?
) 13 ' A Yes.
14 0 Okay.
15 A And the temperature gradient was that associated 16 with the stability Class F, and I don't remember what that 17' is. ,
18 0 Okay. Was that gradient shown in any of the 19 testimony or attachments to your k rowledge?
20 A There are standard conversion tables between 21 stability class and temperature gradient.
i 22 Q And where are those tables to be found, sir? .
I 23 A Certain book on micro-meteorology is one that I l
()
m meseem,inc.
24 occurs to me. Another one is there is a very common reference 25 having to do with meteorology around nuclear power plants, ,
t
)
> 10-ll-JosWal 9478 1
i i l
- 1 and. atmospheric diffusion, and that has the same table in it, !
+ 2 as I recall.
I 3 Q And what is that reference?
4 A I can't give you the specific reference.
5 0 Okay. If counsel will permit, I would like to get, i
i 6 that supplied for the record.
I 7 MS. RIDGWAY: We don't have copies of that, Mr.
l
[ 8 Eddleman. l t
] l 1 9 MR. EDDLEMAN: Well, do you think you can find ,
, i j 10 l it? Do you object to producing it? I j 11 MS. RIDGWAY: Mr. Eddleman -- Your Honor, discovery i I j 12 L -- the time for discovery is over. It is not -- we can go 13 far afield here if we start looking for underlying references ;
} .
i 14 on meteorology. We produced the dire ct data on which the i i
! 15 ' testimony is based, and meteorological textbooks just don't i
t 16 seem to fall within the ambient of what we are obligated to I
t 17 produce.
a 18 MR. EDDLEMAbh Judge, I believe the facts show I
I
- 19 pretty much the opposite. The witness testified that the
- 20 temperature gradient was one of the key variable that was !
t i 21 involved here. j j t
22 He testified that the information was not >'
.l i 23 included in what had been produced, and he testified that l l t l
24 these tables showed how you calculated it for a given I f
romwn. =. ;
25 stability class, and that hadn't been produced. [
t
- 10-12-JoLWal 9479 i
j
- 1 JUDGE KELLEY: Isn't the point still that this 2 is their case You asked the witness the name of this 3 reference, a: he said ne didn't know.
4 MR. EDDLEMAN: If they want to take it that way, 5 I guess that is a good point, Judge.
6 JUDGE KELLEY: Objection sustained. l l
7 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: ( Cbntinuing) j i
8 Q Mr. Keast, within the Shearon Harris EPZ, did i
9' you make specific measurements of ground absorptions for i
10 this study? i II A (Witness Keast) No, I did not.
4 12i Q Of attenuation by forests?
() 13 A We made no propogation measureme res in the
- l 1
14 Shearon Harris EPZ.
i 1- IS Q Not at all about any of the factors that are j 16 discussed in -- let me refer you to the first paragraph 17 of your Answer 14 on page 10. You mention quite a number I
18 of effects.
i 19 Spherical divergence I take it is the same i
-20 everywhere. I am referring you to the last sentence of l
21 .that paragraph. Do you have that? l l I 22 A Yes. ;
f
- 23 Q Okay. What you are saying is there were no l ;
l'
()
W nes <ters, Inc.
24 field measurements of any of these things in the Shearon l
25 Harris EPZ?
i l
I l
i
' 10-13-JosWal 9480 1
- A That is correct.
i
() 2 0 Okay. Now, the computer calculations that you refer to at the top of page 11, will you explain how you made j l 3 4
4 Applicants Exhibit 46. I would like to ask you a little ;
4 bit about how that was done.
l 5 The computer gives you -- does it give you a dB 6 f level at certain distances from the siren, is that how that f
- 7 i 8 works?
t l 9 A No.
10 0 How does it work?
11 A It gives us a distance at which a given dB level 1 I
12 ' occurs.
13: 0 Okay. So, for example, if we had Siren No. 25, 14 and we will say direction due North, however that is ,
15 figured in the computer, then it would say, 105 dB occurs 16 at a given distance, and 100 occurs at another distance, ;
17 1 a greater distance, I presume, and so on down to what, i
ig 60 dB, 50 -- how far out does it goes?
19 A We went out to sixty.
20 0 out to sixty. Okay.
I 21 j E mi 10.
MS fois. ! '
22 ,;
i 23 24 l.
Cowwn. f m.
25 l
9481 Sim 11-1 1 Q Out to 60, okay. So you have these distances, (j 2 and would you just lay them out in sort of a compass arrange-3 ment and just measure off the distance in each direction and 4 link those up with a line? Is that how these curves were made? .
5 A The computer program produces a map overlay which 6 is equivalent.
7 Q And it does it essentially by the method that I 8! was describing there, by interpolating between the ---
i 9l A There is no interpolation involved.
10 Q well, I can understand how you could make it if 11 [
it were a perfect circle, say, and you say that 60 dB occurs 12 at exactly 12,000 feet in all directions of a siren. I can
(~') 13 ', understand how the computer can make that curve without any xs ! '
14; interpolation. But if the distances are different in two i
15l directions, say at due north it is 12,000 feet and in the 16; next direction to the east it is 11,000, hcw does the computer l
17[ make the curve between those two points?
I 18l A Okay. The computer just gives us those two 19 points on a map overlay, and the other 14 as well. We then 20 manually by eye draw a smooth curve between them.
21 Q okay. So all of this is done by eye for the 22 computer's generated points, and that is how this Exhibit 46 23 was prepared?
24 A That is correct.
u th aepo,te,s, Inc.
25 Q Let me move in answer 15.to'the second paragraph.
l
9482 Sim 11-2 _
1 You are talking about conditions at night. Are there specific
() 2 times you are referring to when you say at night, or does it 3! mean when the sun is down?
4 A It means when the sun is down and into the early 5 morning hours somewhat after the sun rises.
6 Q Okay. Then the physical conditions of lower wind 7
speeds and the temperature gradient normally increasing with 8 height would apply during those periods; is that what you 9 are saying?
10 A Yes.
11l Q Now you used 4 a.m. as the time for computing 12 l.these variables for the study rather than a 1 a.m., 2 a.m.,
i
(~)
13 i 3 a.m., 5 a.m. or 6 a.m., didn't you?
l Idi A That is correct.
i i
15; Okay.
i Q Now it is stated in answer 16 that the l
16! number of houses in these various areas were counted manually.
I 17i Did you do that yourself, Mr. Keast?
t 18l A No, I did not.
i 19l 0 Who did do the coun*.ing?
20 A i
We have some technical aids available in our firm 21 and at least two of them worked on this.
22 0 Now there is a description there in the paragraph 23 at the bottom.of page 12 about adding dB levels. Is it correct 24 to say that if you double the energy that that increases 3 L @ s.oem, lac.
25 dB the decibels?
9483
@im 11-3 A If you double the energy, okay, and the energy G is the sound level multiplied bythe time that it lasts.
./
> 2 l Q Well, it is the sound levels that you are 4
adding here; is that what you are saying?
i A What we are doing is we are adjusting the sound St I
! levels for differences in the time for which the sound lasts.
6j .
Q So you are saying in effect that this sound 7
1s lasting twice as long and that is why you increase it 8l !
l 9; 3 dB; is that your testimony?
t A In general, yes.
10l 33l Q Okay. Now these sirens are rotary, are they not?
A Yes, g{ Q Now can you tell me how the dB level varies as Lj g the siren rotates? I presume that the 125 dB at 120 feet is when the thing is pointed straight at you; is that correct?
f A Yes.
gj Q Okay. Now as it rotates past me, and let's say 18 s facing & ectly away hom me, how far does that & drop off?
39 i
A Hold on. For this particular siren when it is 20l 21 10 degrees either side of being pointed directly at us, the g
i sound level is approximately a half a dB below the maximum level that we would observe when it is pointed at us.
24: 0 okay, ke-r& neporters see.
A When it is 20 degrees either side, it is one-25
9484 Simil-4 1 and-a-quarter dB less. At 30 degrees either side, it is J 2 approximately 3.1 dB less, and so on. I could give you the 3
whole thing, but we would be here for 20 minutes. Actually 4
what we did was we integrated over this curve.
5 0 Can you give me 180 degrees?
6 A Sure. Twenty dB less.
7 Q And let me ask you also, is there a degree that 8
- corresponds to 10 dB less?
9 A About 40 degrees.
O Q Okay.
Ili A That is plus or minus.
l 12 0 Right. So if I am rotating, if the siren is 13:
(m) i rotating from approximately minus 40 degrees off where I am Id !
to approximately plus 40, that is about a quarter of the 15 revolution of where it is within 10 dB of the maximum that 16{
i it puts out when it is pointing straight at you; would that I7 be correct?
18 A That is correct.
I Q Okay. Now let me refer one more time to the 20 counting of these house units. Was that counting double 2I checked?
22 Yes, it was.
A 23 0 You then discuss the way you assign sound levels 24 Ace-f4l Repo,te,s, Inc.down at the end of answer 16 over on page 13. Then you begin 25 to talk about indoor sound levels in question and answer 17.
. 9485 Sim 11-5 I Now you consider that there are various
/
C ') 2 characteristics of houses, and then you say "The differences 3
in the attenuation characteristics are attributable almost 4
entirely to windows, whether they are opened or closed, and 5 wnether storm windows are in use.
6 What I want to ask you is did you take any lock 7'
at the effect of curtains, shades, drapes, venetian blinds, 8 exterior blinds and thiligs like that on sound attenuation for 9 houses in your study?
10 A Yes.
II i Q And what account did you take of it?
12 A To the extent that they might reduce the sound 7 i
() 13 coming through the window, their effect is negligible. To i
I4l the extent that they might reduce the sound level inside the i
15 !
room once the sound gets there, they caa contribute to changes 16l in sound level in the room. The analyses that we have done i
17 have been for the averge furnishing conditions in bedrooms.
18' Q And what are those average conditions?
19 A Well, the average furnishing conditions in 20 bedrooms is equivalent to a' reverberation time of approximately 21 a half a second.
22 Q Well now is that an average that was specifically 23 determined for the Harris EPZ?
24 A No, it isn't.
Ac F4 e porters, inc. It is an average which has been 25 used by the EPA in setting up guidance.
9486 Sim 11-6 ) Q And what guidance is that?
2 A Well, that particular office of the EPA has gone 3 ut of business, but it is a number which they have used from 4 time to time in setting regulations when they were setting 5
regu a ns.
6 Q Are these regulations for like jet airplane noise?
7 A Mostly for specific transportation vehicles like 8 railroad cars, garbage compactors, heavy trucks and things 9 of that sort.
10 Q Now is the fundamental frequency of noise that 2
11 you get from a heavy truck around 500 hertz?
A No.
12.
I ;
Q 13 Q What is it?
j4l A It would depend upon where you are and how far 15 away y u are, but in general it would be above 500 hertz.
, 16 Q And would these other things, garbage compactors
( 17 and the like, also generally have a fundamental frequency 4
l 18 different than 500 hertz?
79 A Yes, but it really isn't pertinent to what I am l 20 saying because all of my measurements and all of my analyses t
21 have been concerned with 500 hertz and the one-third octave 22 band around 500 hertz or 550 hertz. So the fact that other 23 kinds of sound sources make different sound spectre is 24 unimp rtant.
n.p.,,.rs, Inc.
25 Q Well, the attenuation can vary across the spectrum,
9487 Sim 11-7 1 can't it?
I )
k/ 2 A It certainly can, but I looked at it only for l
3 500 hertz. I didn't use attenuations that could occur for 4 other frequencies.
5 Q Okay. Then you used that approximately half-6 second reverberation time?
7 A No, I did not. I used typical bedroom conditions.
i 8! Q Well, let's go through this one more time 9 because I am a little confused. The typical bedroom 10 conditions, how were they input into your analysis?
I II A They were input in the way in which -- they were 12 input because we used data measured in typical bedrooms.
, 1 I ) 13; N/ t O And these data are measured across various 14l frequencies; is that right?
l 15; A In general measurements are made over various i
16 frequencies, but we only used that portion of the measurements 17 that were made in the vicinity of 500 hertz.
18 Q Okay. Now what were the typical conditions of the 19 rooms where those measurements were made?
20 A Well, they were quite variable. As a matter of 21 fact, I think you have been given copies of the data sheets l
22 for the measurements that we made in the Harris EPZ. You l
23 have been given copies and you have previously raised for 24 discussion other technical reports which discuss conditions Ac Reporters, Inc.
25 in bedrooms.
9488 Sim 11-8 Q Now I may have misunderstood you here. I thought you were saying you used the EPA data. Are you saying you 3
a tually used the measurements made in this sample of homes 4 in the EPZ in your study?
A That is correct after determining that they were consistent with the EPA data.
7 Q And how did you deterine that consistency?
r
- A Just by checking the properties of the rooms
- 8 and in particular the attenuation from outside inside to the 9
roCm against data that have been gathered elsewhere.
i g Q I am just looking at the top one of these forms in the group that I have, and I can't see any notation concerning draperies or anything like that on it. Do you know if that data was taken in these measurements?
A You are looking at the top one, which is labeled page 1 of 2 for house No. l?
4 Q Right.
z7 g A Okay. I direct you down to the first subheading there that says bedroom No. 1.
9
! Q Right..
g l
A Location, it says northwest corner.
Q Right.
22 i A The third item under that ---
l JUDGE ~KELLEY: Could I just interrupt. We are
"" not up with you. Is this again from that October ---
25 l
1
, . . ~ ._ . . .. . .,_ .--.. - ._-. _ .-. _ _ . . . , . _ _ _ , , , . . . . , - , - , - , ~ - , - - _ , b
9489 Sim 11-9 I MR. EDDLEMAN: I am afraid this is one that the 2
Board doesn't have copies of.
i 1
3 JUDGE KELLEY: Is this from the October letter?
4 Have you got an extra one?
5 (The applicants handed Judge 5(elley a copy of 6 the document being referred to.)
7 Can we catch up with you now. What page are you 8 on?
9 MR. EDDLEMAN: The very top page should be 10 page 1 of 2.
II JUDGE KELLEY: Measurement of Acoustic Properties 12 of homes in the Shearon Harris EPZ.
13 j
MR. EDDLEMAN: House No. 1.
I4 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay. Thank you. Go ahead.
, 1 i 15l BY MR. EDDLEMAN:
f 16 Q Now you referring me under bedroom No. I to what?
j I7 A The third line under that there is a statement 18
" Absorption" and three boxes, hard, soft, medium.
l9 Q Yes, I see that.
20 A In this particular case medium is checked as our
- 21 judgment of the aborptive condition of the particular room 22 in which we were measuring.
23 Q And that is a judgment you made in all of these; '
l 24 p is that right?
m .n ,-
25 A That is correct.
9440 l l
l
- Sim 11-10 i Q Down at the bottom of page 13 continuing-in
() 2 answer 17 on line 24, you begin there and continue over to 3 the next page. You said "The analysis is conservative to 4 the extent that it overstates the background noise for houses 5 without window fans."
6 Now did you measure the background noise for 7 houses without window fans?
- 8 A We measured background noise outdoors at night.
9 It was below the background noise that we measured in the 10 bedrooms with window fans.
1 11 Q Okay. Now was that additional background noise 12 outdoors coming from the window fans, or did you determine 13 that?
14 A The background noise outdoors at night was 15 coming from all sorts of sources.
16 Q I mean the additional background noise.
17 A What additional background noise?
18 Q I thought you said there was less background 19 noise outside around the houses that didn't have window fans.
20 Was that wrong?
21 A No, I did not say that. I said that the back-22 ground noise data that we measured outdoors in the middle of 23 the night in the EPZ was lower than the noise inside a bedroom 24 with a window fan operating.
h itsporters, lac.
25 Q Yes, I can see that. Okay. Now you state on i
e__ , - - , _
9491
. \\, '
i Sim Il- V j page 14 that the attenuation from outdoors to just above the
(]) 2 pill w f a bedroom with windnws open averages 12 dB. Were 3 those studies your acoustic studies for the Shearon Harris 4 EPZ?
5 A es.
6 Q Can you tell me what the range or the standard 7 deviation of that difference of attenuation from outdoors to 8 ust above the pillow was?
j 9 A Hold on just a moment.
! 10 (Pause.)
i 11 The average was actually 11.90 dB instead of 12 12 dB. The standard deviation was 4.3.
13 Q Did you compute a range?
(}
34 A One to sixteen.
15 Q Similarly for the, you say, "Other. studies have-16 shown that the pertinent background noise level at the pillow d 1
37 caused by a window fan averages 40 dB." What are those othar 18 studies?
i A
j9 These measurements were made at the same time that 20 'we made the measurements, which are on the data sheets that 21 y u just referred to.
f 22 0 Okay. So they are just other measurements. It is 23 really the same set of data collection done at the same time; {
l 24 is that right?
n.p., n. Inc.
25 A Yes.
Sim 11- 4 9492
)
Q Okay. Now with that average of 40 dB, do you
(" 2 have a standard deviation on that?
LJ 3
A I don't think so.
4 (Pause.)
5 I do not.
6 Q In the next paragraph you are discussing 7 demographic data. Now is the demographic data there the 8 inf rmation that was derived from the census tracks in the 9
EPZ? This is at line 8, beginning with the second sentence 10 f paragraph 2 on page 14.
jjl A My understanding is that these data are l
essentially for the EPZ.
12!
,7
~
13 0 Okay. Were they derived from the census?
)
- t _ _ _ _
jal A Yes, U.S. Census data, 1980 presumably as 15 adjusted by some Donolly service, i
16! O All right. The 53 percent of the houses having 37 one installed in the bedroom. Do you know where that data 18 comes from?
j9 A The answers to all of these questions of this 20 sort I believe are given in the notes that are associated with 21 my Attachment 6 in the testimony, and specifically the 53 22 percent of the houses with one-installed, the air conditioner, 23 is Footnote 2, which Attachment 6 indicates comes from U.S.
24 Census data, plus telephone communications with air AcM$1 Reporters, Inc.
25 conditioner manufaturers and regional distributors in
9493 13 Sim 11-t4. 1 August of 1985.
) 2 Q Now do you know if cny of that inforamtion about 3 the location of these air conditioners, whether they are in 4 the bedroom or not, came from those telephone communications, 5 or did they come from the Census data?
6 A I suspect they came from the telephone 7 communications.
8 Q Wasn't 53 percent something awfully precise 9 for somebody to be able to tell you on the telephone about 10 an area which might have very many different marketers of 11 air conditioning systems in iti 12 A I don' t think so, no.
() 13 0 In general the notes to Attachment 6, as I 14 believe you have said, give the sources of the data that 15 you used in making the calculation that is described in your 16 answer 17, which starts on page 13 and comes over to page 17 16. Would that be correct?
18 A I believe so, yes.
cnd Sim 19 Suo fois 20 21 22 23 24 hponen, fac.
25
9494 l
- 12-1-SueW 1 Q All right. The seventy-five percent number for
, ) 2 the percentage of air conditioned houses having storm windows I 3 installed and closed if possible during the summer, that's
! 4 Footnote 4 on Attachment 6, is it not?
I' 5 A (Witness Keast) Yes, it is.
6 0 Okay. And that also references Note 6 which gives
] 7 as a source measurements which HMM did in thirteen homes within i
l 8 the Harris EPZ, correct? l
) 9 A Yes.
10 Q Okay. Now, on the top of Page 15, immediately 4
1 11 following that, you are talking about acoustic studies on the i,
]_ 12 attenuation of siren sounds in penetrating closed windows to
() 13 the head of the bed. ,
t i 14 Now, which studies are those?
i 15 A Those are the studies that we did plus the l i
16 studies that are referenced in Note 6 to Attachment 6.
i l
~
i 17 0 Okay. Did you determine a standard deviation or
< i
! 18 range for any of the numbers that are shown in that paragraph? I l
19 A Let me see.
20 (The witness is looking through documents.) !
- 21 'The window closed and storm window open condition --
l 22 O Yes. .
i j
23 A Strike that. For the windows and storm windows ,
24 closed condition, an average of 30.1 dB, a standard deviation nonws, ene.
25 of 3.6 dB, and a range of 26 to 37.
r
-n , - -
,,-,,m,,-.,,, n ,e--.,, _ , _ ., ,,,_., _ - ,, - , _ n _ _ . n --,_ - _ .
9495 fl2-2-SueW 1 Q Okay.
()
2 A For the window closed but storm window open 3 condition, an average of 26.4, a standard deviation of 4.3, 4 and a range of 19 to 35.
5 Q Okay. Now, regarding the other studies, were those 6 again studies that you took when you were going through the 7 thirteen houses?
8 That's the second sentence of the top paragraph .
l 9 on Page 15. l l
10 A Well, again I refer you to my Attachment 6 which l i
ll i ! believe answers all of these kinds of questions. Attachment 6?,
l 12 l if you go over in the right hand column you see that 49 dB 13 [ number, you look at the eight reference and you will see on the i ,
l 14 ; next page that these are measurements made by HMM at houses ll 15 in the Boston area.
16 l Q Okay. You didn't make those measurements in the i
17 i Harris EPZ? i i
1-8 A No, we did not.
19 Q All right.
20 A In that particular case. That's because we didn'tl 21 happen to hit any houses that fit that condition in the Harris 22 EPZ. .
23 Q Okay. But, neverthel.ess fifty-three percent of I lll 24 asmers ewomn. sm.
the houses that have a room air conditioner have it in the ;
l 25 bedroom in the EPZ: isn't that so?
9496
)12-3-SueW 1 A Yes.
2 Q Okay. Now, as to the 49 dB figure from your 3 Boston studies, do you have a range or a standard deviation 4 for that?
5 A Stand by here.
6 0 Okay. Thank you.
7 (The witness is looking through documents.)
8 A I have a range of 37 to 42 dB for an average --
9 I'm sorry. That's the fan.
10 All I have in this case is a range of from 46 to 54
[
11 dB. The average, of course, is 49. I don't have the standard ,
12 I deviation.
13 Q Okay. And were the attenuation of air conditioner 14 noise from one room to the next through an open doorway of 10 dB !
15 determined in those same Boston studies?
l 16 A No. That's a judgment. '
)
37 A judgment? Okay.
Q 18 A It's a rather conservative judgment, as a matter 19 of fact, because it assumes an open door between the two 20 bedrooms rather than a door out into a hall and another door 21 into the next bedroom.
22 Okay. Well, now wouldn't the attenuation through .
l Q ;
i l 23 a longer path be greater rather than less?
l 24 A Yes, n oo, ,,, inc. :
25 Q Okay. !
9497
)12-4-SueW 1 A So that would mean that the air conditioner noise O 2 would be less in the sleeping bedroom that we are examining.
3 Q Okay. Now, your explanation at the beginning 4 of the paragraph, let me illustrate, on Page 15 and going down 5 over on to Page 16, that's an explanation of how you actually 6 did the calculations that are shown on Attachment 6; is that 7 correct?
8 A It's an explanation of how the information on 9 Attachment 6 was used to reach the results on Attachment 5.
10 Q Okay. Did you make any determinations or have 11 any data regarding how many -- or what percentages of the 12 i houses in the EPZ have their central air conditioning equipment I
() 13 located next to the bedroom or have the external coil and fan 14 outside the bedroom?
15 A No, I did not, j ;.
16 0 Okay. ! }
17 ' A But the measurements that we did make indicated i
18 that that particular source of noise was insignificant in an !
19 air conditioned house compared to the noise that comes from ! i 20 the fmxed air fan within the house, bearing in mind that those 21 houses in general have their windows closed.
t 22 Q And that forced air fan is the blower that .
23 circulates the air --
l ,
24 A Within the house, yes. Right. !
s_
Okay.
l 25 Q Now, don't you in effect in Attachment 6 --
_ , , , - - . , - - _ _ - - _ _ . - . -_,. --_,_,_ ,__-,. _ . , _ . . - . ~ . - . - , _ - , _ - , _ . . , . - , ~ ____ ---
- 9498 312-5-SueW 1 let me start that over. Don't you assume in the calculations of Attachment 6 that each of these sets of houses with a 2
3 certain dB or equivalent dB as you calculate it, level of siren ,.
4 sound, have the same distribution of house types and air 5 conditioning types and windows and fans and air conditioners 6 as the whole EPZ?
7 A Yes. That's a fundamental assumption. As is in 8 my prefiled testimony, that this distribution of houses as 9 indicated by the column labeled " Fractions" in Attachment 6, 10 is assumed to be uniform throughout the EPZ.
II Q Okay. Now, as stated on Page 16, you are using 5:
4 12 ; the maximum outdoor siren sound level and then breaking it up .
I 13 into eight sub-groups through the methodology of Attachment 6 14 for each sound level; is that correct?
15 A We did not.use the maximum outdoor sound level. ,'
16 When we get to determining the probability of awakening, we ;
I 17 used the sound level multiplied by the time over which it l 18 lasts.
19 0 I understand.
20 A Okay. And that is an important consideration
! 21 when using the infor. nation on Attachment 5.
! 22 Q Okay. Now, before we get into that, the sound .
23 levels in these contours, are they the maximum levels that 24 you get from the sirens?
Ceoorms inc.
l l
25 A Yes. The con tours do show the maximum levels.
9499 312-6-SueW l Q Okay. All right. Now, you then go into talk in O 2 Answer 18 about the sound levels, comparing the maxinum sound
'3 levels to background noise levels in the bedrooms of houses 4 in the EPZ. And you begin to discuss in Answer 18 about the 5 relationship of sound levels as you have computed them to 6 awakening people.
7 Now, you talk about the Lukas, L-u-k-a-s, Report 8 there. And that uses an EPNdB, doesn't it?
9 A Yes.
10 Q Okay. Now, how was this EPNdB calculated?
II , A I direct you to my answer to Question 21, Line 8 12 ' on Page 20.
() 13 0 I have it. Okay. You used a half second referenc,e i
14 duration. Now, what I'm asking I guess is, if we have a j i
15 certain dB sound level what formula do you use to tur,n that I 16 into an EPNdB? l l
17 A I believe you have been supplied with those pages ;
! 18 from Dr. Kryter's book, The Effects of Noise on Man.
j 19 Q Let me see if I can --
20 A If you look at that, you will see it can be a l l
l 21 fairly complex computation.
t 22 Q This is the excerpt. Let me ask you this, you ,
23 said this is a standard methodology. So, anyone referring to <
24 this could actually make these calculations by this method; eso,w s,Inc.
25 is that correct?
.n
9500 012-7-SueW 1 A Yes.
/ 2 Q Okay. And there is a table given in that, 3 Pages 476 to 477, as a practical convenience for computer 4 calculation of perceived noisiness. Now, did you use the 5 table or did you use the formula on a computer?
6 A I used the table.
t 7 Q Okay. So, that could be duplicated -- let me l 8 ask you if it's possible to work through one of these?
9 Suppose that we had, say, eighty -- well, let's i 10 see. Suppose you are inside the bedroom and your noise 11 difference is the one at the top of Page 16, 7 dB siren sound 12 level above background, now how would you convert that into
() 13 an EPNdB?
14 A Okay. You realize there are a hundred and fifty-i 15 two of thesa different calculations. ;
16 Q I know. I'm just asking you to do one. I i
17- A You want me to do this one? !
18 Q Right. l 19 A Okay. Let me find again which one you want 20 me to do.
21 Q It's the one that is given at the very top of i
22 Page 16. You have a 7 dB difference above background. And j.
t i 23 those I believe are in houses with window air conditioners 24 in the bedroom.
ouan. w.
25 A Okay, i
L
9501 .
l
$12-8-SueW ; (Pause.)
O 2 oker. We seare wieh the maximum emedoor seund a level of 82 dB.
3 )
i '
a O Okay.
A We subtract 26 which is the attenuation through the 5
closed window with the storm window not closed. We get 56 dB 6
inside the room.
7 :
Uh-huh.
+
Q 8
^
A We compare that to the background noise in the
- room which is 49. We get a difference of 7 dB, a signal to noise difference of 7 dB in this instance. Okay.
i O Okay.
i 12 ! - -
t i ! ,
A Now, obviously the whole pattern of the siren 4 .
i tone as it passes by is not going to rise above that background I
14 noise. Okay. It's only a portion of the peak of the siren ! I 15 i l l tone that is going to occur in that room. l 7 16 j j ~
.Actually, it's when the siren tone is at maximum i :
} 17 .
1 l l l and dc,wn to as much as 7 dB below maximum. If we integrate i 18
! over the siren directivity pattern, which we discussed earlier,
, 19 i
this is the ten degree, twenty degree business, if we integrate 4 20
- over that for the 56 dB level in the bedroom, ignoring that
! portion of the siren tone which is below the background noise, !
i 22 we get for a single rotation of the siren 60.4 dB.
I y Q You say 16 or 60?
24 l l
"""*' A Six zero point-four dB for single rotation of the j
, 25
, . , _ . _ . .=
. = . . - . - . .. . - - .-. . . - - . -
9502
- 12-9-SueW 1 siren. Okay. To which we add the effect of the duration of 2 the siren assuming that it is running for ten minutes, which 3 is 66.6 half seconds, which is 18 dB, to which we add tone 4 correction called for in the EPNdB calculation which is 10 dB, 5 which we add the onset correction called for in the EPNdB '
6 calculation which is 3 dB.
7 And we end up with a sum of 91.4 EPNdB.
! 8 Q Okay.
9 A Okay. That sum applies to sixteen -- that's 10 sixteen percent of all houses that fit the conditions -- that 1
11 apply to this particular case.
12 I
Q Okay. And then from there, given that you have I
() 13 got a 91.4 EPNdB sum over all the rotations in -- by the way, 14 how fast does this thing rotate?
l 15 ,
How many times -- l
- 16 A Our calculations assume 2 rpm.
l l l 17 Q Two rpm?
l l
18 A Yes. ;
4 19 Q Two revolutions per minute? !
20 A Yes.
21 Q Okay. So you get 91.4 EPNdB out of this, then '
! 22 what -- is there a table that you look up or formula you use .
l 23 to give the probability of waking someone up with that number 24 of EPNdB7 mooorwn, Inc.
l 25 A Yes.
l l
i l
I
, - - . _ . - , , . , . . . - . , - - - . - - . . ~ . . - , , - . , , - - _ - - . . , _ . . . - - - - . _ , . - . .
9503 012-10-SueW 1 Q Okay. And where is that found?
2 A Well, okay. I will refer you to my testimony.
3 Starting on Page 18, Line 16, the answer to Question 19 --
4 0 Yes.
5 A -- going on, which says in effect we used the 6 results as reported by Mr. Lukas in his summary of sleep /
7 awakening studies.
8 0 Okay. It says on Page 19, Line 7 to 11, you 9 applied the first two of these results.
10 What I'm asking you is, is there a formula or 11 a table of that relationship?
1 12 l A There is a graph.
13 Q And where is that graph?
14 A That graph I believe has given to you. It's l
15 in the Lukas Report that you have been provided. '
16 Q Lukas' Report? Now, that one may have -- let me 17 check my list here a second. ;
18 A It's an EPA -- !
i 19 JUDGE KELLEY: The Board thinks that Mr. Keast 20 with his calculation has earned a cup of coffee. Are you l 21 about up to that point, Mr. Eddleman, so we can take a break?
22 MR. EDDLEMAN: Yes, sir. If he can -- it's an .
23 EPA report?
24 WITNESS KEAST: Yes, sir. The designation is menerwes, anc.
25 600/1-77-010.
9504 012-11-SueW 1 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing)
Okay.
2 Q That's Item D in the list I think.
3 A Okay.
4 MR. EDDLEMAN: Let me look that up over the 5 break. This is a good time, Judge.
6 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay.
7 JUDGE CARPENTER: Mr. Eddleman, what are we 8 going to do about this?
9 I tried to get that EPA Report on Friday. The i i
10 NRC Library doesn't have it. This witness doesn't tell me 11 ; anything about it except the hearsay evidence, that he did 12 ; what Lukas did. But he never tells me what Lukas did.
) 13 j And I can't find out, because I can't get a copy l l ;
14 j of it. Help somebody. j l
15 ^ MR. EDDLEMAN: Well, Judge, I want to get him '
16 to go through it, but I will be glad to provide you with a 17 copy.
18 JUDGE KELLEY: Do you have a copy of the report '
19 in question?
l' 20 MR. EDDLEMAN: Yes. But I don't have a spare i
1 21 copy. j i
22 MS. RIDGWAY: I will provide you with a copy. .l l
23 JUDGE KELLEY: Thank you. Let's take a ten minutej 24 break.
W-F Repo,ters, Inc.
l 25 (Whereupon, a recess is taken at 2:28 p.m., to I l reconvene at 2:47 p.m., this same day.)
[ND#12 ce flws
13-1-JonWal 9505 j (2:47 p.m.)
/ , I
( )
i 2 JUDGE KELLEY: At the beginning of the last hour, I I ,
i l 3 we put to the parties our proposition for resolving the 4 questions raised with regard to Dr. Bassiouni. ;
I 5 I would like to ask the parties whether they -- l i
6 what comment they would have on our proceeding as outlined.
7 MS, RIDGWAY: Your Honor, we have had an opportunity 8, to review the Board's proposal. We think that the overall l
9 'l procedure is a reasonable one given the potential factual 10 l conflict that the Board is facing.
II We also sincerely appreicate the Board's attempt 12 ! to excedite the resolution of the issue.
r~s !
kJ 13 l We have one problem with-the procedure. We think I4 l that it is apprcpriate to determine whether the initial
!i 15 basis for the request is accurate. If not, we believe that 16 ! the inquiry. should end, because there is no factual basis 17 for going any further.
18 JUDGE KELLEY: When I sketched today, I didn't 19 mean to get to a verbatim description of exactly what I had 20 l in mind, but I think we can put the question in those terms.
21 ; Maybe not quite as narrowly as you suggest, but I think the 22 thrust of your comment is valid. .
23 MS. RIDGWAY: My co-counsel had suggested that I 24 clarify just a little bit what I meant, and that is that Am4 m cmomn, im. ;
25 in other words, assuming that he says that, for example, he i i
i
.. .. - - . .. __. . ~ _
i 13-2-JosWal 9506 l 1 hasn' t read the testimony or contraverts the basis -- provides 1
O 2 no basis for going any further, that the Board should not askl I
)
)
I
)
j 3 him independently to review the testimony and form an l 4 opinion. j 5 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay. Mr. Rochlis? , !
6 MR. ROCHLIS: We would concur. Essentially, l 7 FEMA and the Staff has concurred, and we feel it is Mr. ;
j 8 Eddleman's burden to bring in his rebuttal witnesses, and 9 show the specific basis for Mr. Bassiouni's testimony is 1
10 beyond the mere allegations that he has made today.
II l We don't feel that the Board should be calling I2 Dr. Bassiouni at this time.
O 13 JUDGE KELLEY: Well, let me just mr.ke one -- Mr.
14 Eddleman, do you have any comment?
- 15 MR. EDDLEMAN
- Go ahead, Judge. r 16 JUDGE KELLEY: I can only guess, but I essentially l 17 envision calling him this afternoon myself without anybody 18 else's participation, and I don't know that I would want the ,
19 burden of making an assessment if what is said is at all 20 murky. Then it seems to me the conference call is the way 21 to go about it. !
I t 22 If Dr. Bassiouni should say: I have never seen -
23 any of this material, never talked to anybody, don't know ! i i
24 what you are talki rg about, then I suppose we could forget l
- n n . ~. i the whole thing, but Mr. Eddleman has talked to him and he 25
13-3-JonWal 9507 gs I reports, and I am loathe to be responsible to parsing this
& 2 too finely. ,
3 MS. RIDGWAY: If I could just clarify two points; 4 one is that he has indeed seen the testimony. I personally 5 sent it to him. I sent him a copy both of our testimony as 6 well as of the FEMA testimony for his information. ;
I 7 And the second point is that we have in our 84 aarlier conversation this morning with Dr. Bassiouni l
91 determined that he is not available this afternoon to perhaps i
10 t be reached by phone.
11 ' I didn't go on to inquire as to whether he might 12 ' be available in the evenings. I know from my past experience (m-) 13 l with him that he does occasionally work later into the I
laj P evening, and the Board might be able to reach him then.
15 He indicated to us that he is very busy this -
16 l week, though. I don't know whether that means that he will
!i 17 f be in or out of his office throughout the rest of the week.
18 ! JUDGE KELLEY: Could I just get the number from 19 you? Have you got a home number, too; or just the office 20l num be r.
21 MS. RIDGWAY: I know I have the office number.
l 22 .
I am not sure whether I have a home number. I will be glad -
i l l 23 ; to provide them to you. '
l <m !
Okay. Mr. Eddleman?
(_) 24 I AceJeo.rm c.oonen, ene.
JUDGE KELLEY:
i 1
25 MR. EDDLEMAN: I can tell you from my inquiries i
l i
13-4-Jo;Wal 9508
- I that his home number is not published. ,
j V l 2 JUDGE KELLEY: Do you have it? l 3 MR. EDDLEMAN: I don't have it. My comment I 4 guess would be I can't say what Dr. Bassiouni might have ,
i 5 told someone else. !
6 I didn't write down what he said verbatim in 7 all cases. I was trying to make some notes over what he i
8! said to me on the phone, and I reported it to the best of t
9 my memory, but I think there is some murkiness here and i
10 what the Board proposed would help to clear it up.
II l My understanding was that he said there were 12 : some things in there that he just can' t believe in the
-( '"
)
13 :
testimony, and that is what I am basing that on.
14 There may be some other things that he said that g
i 15 ,l relate to that, but I think the procedure is sound.
0 16 t I also did inform someone in the Attorney General's 17l Office over the break that this thing had been put out for 18 comment, and they did confirm that they would like to be i
included in a conference call if one were held.
JUDGE KELLEY: Okay. Well, to the extent that 20 l 21 I am hearing a concern from the Applicants and the Staff that:
22 the Board shouldn' t on its own motion go looking for things, -
l 23l I understand that.
24 On the other hand, I see my role essentially as A %.ru Reoorters, inc. i .
25 I procedural. Somebody who is going to arrange something, and l
13-5-JosWal 9509
() I not someone who is going to make judgments based on a 2 conversation that has been described here so far today, and 3 I think that is the way we will have to do it, we will have 4 to proceed.
5 But on that understanding, we would like to go 6 ahead, and if I can get a phone number later. I am going to l I
7 try this afternoon, and if you say he is not available, 8 maybe I will try this evening. l 9 MS. RIDGWAY: I understand that he is testifying I
10 ! this afternoon. I don't know precisely what hours. .
II ! JUDGE KELLEY: My thought would be to just reach 12 him as soon as I can. I may not reach him until tomorrow 13 l morning. Let's just see how it goes, okay?
d I
14 ! So, we will let it stand on that basis, and I will i
15 ! get back to you tomorrow morning on what progress, if any, I 16 ! have made by then.
l 17 l Thank you. Mr. Eddleman?
18 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) 19 Q Mr. Keast, I believe we were talking about a -
20 graph or chart of EPNdB versus arrousal or sleep disruption 21 that you used in your study, before the break? ,
22 '
, (Witness Keast) That is correct. -
I 23 Q Now, is that on page 20 of Lukas?
24 A No.
m c.oo,s inc.
25 Q Which chart or graph is it?
1 13-6-JonWal 9510 i c) x_/
1 A It is Figtre 2 on page 21.
i 2 O Okay. l t
3 A Let me just take this opportunity to describe 4 the Lukas Report a little bit. I understand that the Board 5 has not been able to get a copy. !
l 6 You, of course, have a copy. I have a copy. I 7 think it might be helpful if I describe what this is.
8 At the time Mr. Lukas was with the Stanford '
9, Research Institute, and apparently under the sponsorship of l
10 l the then Noise Office of the EPA. He was asked to summarize 11 the results of sleep disturbance studies by noise as of 12 that time.
U,_
13 i The report was published in February of 1977. The l
14 ' focus of the EPA's interest was sleep disturbance by noise.
15 , Passing trucks outside your house; aircraft overflights; trains; this sort of thing. Because it was their responsi-16: jl 17 bility at that time to regulate the noice from such sources.
18 And he starts out, as I indicated in my testimony, 19 looking at at least twenty different studies done in the past-by himself and by other people. He reports no new researching 20l 21 here. l i
22 These are studies with a wide variety of .
23 different sounds. A wide range of different subjects,
(~'
, (_)r 24 conducted under a variety of different circumstances, all t sormws nunnm. une. ,
25 of which he has s ummarized with the intent of trying to i
i
13-7-JoeWal 9511 l determine four things, as listed in my testimony.
1 l
(~J L l 2 The first of these things is what is the best way j i
3 to quantify the noise exposure of these people? I 4 He indicates, for example, that EPNdB, which I 5 have used, and single event sound level, sometimes called a 6 sound exposure level, are tuo essentially equal ways of I 7 quantifying the noise to which people are exposed.
8 He then goes and looks at the extent to which this!
i 9l roise appears to disturb people's sleep, without actually I
10 i awakening them, and of course the way this is determined 11 is by applying electroencephalograph electrodes to the 12 : sleeping subject. You zing him with some noise, and you
(_]
\- ,
13 see whether or not his sleep state changes, even though 14 ,
he does not wake up, okay?
I 15 That is of no interest to us in this case. The 16 l third thing which he has determi md, or reported, is a 17 f summary of those studies where people were actually awakened i
18 or, in his terminology, aroused -- these are people who hear 19 the sound and take some action in response to it.
Typically, reaching under the bed and pushing a 20 l 21 button which is placed there as part of the experimental l 22 process. .
23 The fourth thing is -- and that, of course, is r~w ;
(_) 24 fundamental to our interest at this time. The fourth thing j
--Fe-w peo,ws. ire. ;
l 25 he has looked at is this question of af ter exposing people j l
l l
13-8-JonWal 9512 1 to noise during their sleep, how did they report it the 2 next day, even if they were not awoken, for example, do they 3 report that they have been dist trbed, or that they feel their 4 sleep was not satisfactory. That particular piece of 5 information is of no interest to us in this case. l 6 The two things which are of interest to us in 7 this case is the high correlation he reports between the l
8 EPNdB measure and the sleep awakening data, and secondly, .
9 the actual sleep awakening data which is this curve on 10 Figure 2 of this report, which relates the percentage, or II frequency he calls it, of arousal or behavior awakening
\
as a function of the noise exposure in EPNdB. It is a 12 {
13 graph that has a number of points on it from a number of 14 different investigations, all of which are tabulated in 15 ' this report, and then it has a' correlation line down through l
the middle. It is that correlation line which we used for 16 f 17 our purposes.
18 I am sorry for the c'igression.
19 Q That is quite all right. Does that complete the 20 explanation? .
21 A Yes.
22 Q Okay. The Figure 2 on page 21 that you are 23 referring to, in fact it shows an R of 0.500 for the i
O 24 (Am-heers monomn, Inc. correlation, doesn't it?
t 25 A Yes. That is the correlation coefficient.
13-9-JoeWaf 9513 l Q Okay. And the correlation is the R squared?
(}
2 A Sometimes R squared is reported. He has reported 3 in . this case just the R. .
4 Q Okay. Now, you characterize that as a high 5 correlation coefficient?
6 A No, it looks pretty low to me. !
i 7 Q Okay. And, in fact, there is a considerable 8 amount of scatter among the various data points on that i 9 chart, is there not?
10 A Yeah. That worried me, too. And let me tell you 11 what I did. First of all, there are three points along the 12 ! top of this graph.
s- l 13 l The one towards the upper left hand corner which 14 is a triangle with a dot in it, it is that single point on 15 here which shows the highest frequency of arousal for 16 any particular noise exposure.
I 17 on this graph is shows 100 percent arousal for 18 about 78 EPNdB exposure. That particular point is from 19 that study among all of these studies which is most similar 20 to the siren sound.
f 21 These studies are predominently passing trains, !
l 22 overflying airplanet, and so forth. That study is for an -
23 800 hurtz tone, okay? And if you take this EPNdB number .
I
(~/l 24 and reflect it back to sound level in the bedroom, what that !
Asemww neawn im-_ :
l 25 one point on this curve says is that between 35 and 45 dB, t
13-10-JonWN[ 9514
,'~' I sound level for the tone, not dBA, sound level for the tone, ,
'u/ :
2 will awaken 100 percent of the people in the EPZ.
3 Well, that point -- I could have said that, but 4 I think that would have been unrealistic, and I thought it 5 was more conservative to use the average result that was 6 reported by Lukas, and I went and I took points like that ,
7 which are the outlier points. And there are three of them 8 along the top, like the one that I just mentioned.
9' There is the data along the bottom, where people I
i 10 ; for some reason appeared to never be awakened by Japanese 11 ! trains going over Japanese bridges, and I took all of those
<s 12 : points out, and re-computed the correlation, and the i \
t 13 ! line came out almost exactly the same by pure coincidence, i
I 14 but the correlation coefficient was much higher.
15 The correlation coefficient came out .828.
16 So, even if you eliminate the outlier points, 17' which are pared on that particular illustration we are 18 ' looking at, the regression line is essentially the same, 19 l and the correlation is much higher. Centered around the 20 points in the middle of the curve.
21 Q Frankly, on the reproduction there, I am having t
22 a little trouble tracing this back. The think that you .
23 mention there in the upper left hand corner looks like
(^3 l
'n 24 a black diamond to me, but I did' find the 800 hurtz A 4ews neomn. w. !
25 on page -- I see a dot and a diamond on page 5. l f
- . ..= _ _ - . . - -
l g 13-ll-JosWal 9515 i 1 Showing simulated sonic boom. And then I see another one 2 over on page seven with the 800 hertz tone.
. 3 A It is the 800 hertz tone one.
4 JUDGE KELLEY: You are losing your mike, Mr.
5 Eddleman.
6 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) ;
j 7 O Scrry. And that one -- it doesn't appear to be f a dot that is in that diamond. I can't quite read what l 8
1 i
i It looks to me like two little circles.
9 is in there.
10 A (Witness Keast) In my copy, and we are all 11 l dealing with Xeroxes infortunately, it is a diamond with a i
l 12: cross in it, and that is, indeed, the point on the upper 13 i left hand corner, Figure 2.
i 14 Q Okay. Well, now, the others that are up high, I5 i the X ones seem to be a simulated sonic boom, 'and I assume 16 the dot is a thing called Shape White Noise.
l 17 Those seem to be the tpper outliers, is that
- 18 correct?
19 A Those are some of the upper outliers, yes.
20 0 Those are the three that are up at virtually 21 one hundred percent. That is right, isn't it? l 22 A Yes. There are lower outliers, too. .!
t 23 Q Okay. Now, I have that dark square that is among i
( 24 -the lower outliers down in the lower right corner several m coo, ten. Inc.
25 times. I have that as a jet takeoff, is that right?
13-12-JonWal 9516 1 Looking on Page 7.
('~'S w/ ;
2 A Yes. j 3 Q ,
And then in the open triangle, that is the train 4 study that you referred to, isn't it?
I J
$ A Yes. ;
6 Q Okay. Now, is the .828 correlation that you 7 report, is that an R or an R-squared?
8 A That is an R.
9 Q Okay. Now, the percentage of variance that 10 j is explained by this correlation, that would be R-squared, i
11 wouldn't it?
7 12 ! A Yes.
'w] 13 ! Q Okay. Now, this figure entitled frequency of 14 arousal or awakening from sleep, okay, now is there a 15 distinction between arounsal and awakening?
16 l A Lukas points out that there is no distinction for his purposes.
17 l 18 Q Where does he say that?
19 A Okay. Starting at the bottom of page 13, the 20 last sentence, typically arousal occurs prior to, or 21 coincidental, with behavioral awakening, and he has an i
22 asterisk with a footnote, and says: For our purposes we -
23 consider these responses essentially equivalent because --
/~;
' ,' 24 and he goes on. '
wedww ceoortm, inc.
25 0 Okay. The asterisk footnote says: There is
13-13-Jo;Wal 9517 1 some controversy on this point, and goes on to explain that, 2 does it not?
3 A Yes, it does.
4 Q Okay. Now, did you use the correlation carve ,
l 5 from your restudy taking out the outlier points, or did you !
l 6 use the correlation curve of Figure 2 on page 21 of Lukas 7 in your study?
8 A I used Lukas entirely throughout my study.
I i
End 13. 9' MS fois.
10 11 !
i 12 .
em 1
) .
13 l 14 15 ;
il 16 i 17ll 18 19 20 I
21 .
22 ,!
23 c, i
( 24 l l
was.rs Repo,ters. Inc.
25 l I
i f
I
. 9518 ,
Sim 14-1 1 Q All right. I would like to ask you isn't it O 2 true that the conclusion No. 2 on page 29 of this Lukas study 3 states that -- well, let me let you have time to refer to 4 it.
5 (Pause.)
6 A Yes, I see it.
7 Q okay. Does that not in fact say "Although we 8 are able to predict the frequency of behaviorial awakening 9 or arousal in middle aged populations with reasonable 10 accuracy if stimulus duration and intensity are accounted 11 for, these predictions are far less accurate for college 12 aged populations. Across the two age groups the accuracy O I3 of greeictine erouse1 or ewexenine 1e genere11v goer end Id units such as maximum dBA are no more accurate than units such 15 as EdBA." Correct? ,
16 A That is correct. I might point out that what I7 he is attempting to do there is to explain some of the 18 scatter of the data points which we have already discussed 19 on Figure 2, because Figure 2 is labeled " Frequency of 20 Arousal or Awakening From Sleep in College and Middle !
21 Aged Men and Women by Noise," et cetera.
22 Q All right.
23 A So he is really just trying to explain why this wide variability in points in Figure 2.
Ac F O;n.p,,.rs,24 m inc.
25 Now the 100 percent wakeup with 800 hertz tone 0
9519 Sim 14-2 1 that is referred to on page 7, the group, and I think that
\ -) 2 reads 32 males question mark. Is that what it says 3 describing the group?
4 A Yes.
5 Q And giving a mean age of 21.5?
6 A Yes.
7 Q Thank you.
8 Now you would just use that. correlation line 9 to convert your EPNdB into a percentage awakened; is that 10 correct?
11 A Yes.
Q Now you refer in answer 21 on page 20, the 12l O)
(_ 13 second paragraph of that answer, and I believe you are 14 discussing sound duration there, sir, and you give a rate 15 of increase of 3 dB for each doubling of the sound duration.
16 Now is that a duration at a given dB level?
17 I A Yes, at a constant dB level, which in this case 18 happens to be PNdB level. If we double the duration, then 19 the EPMdB increase by 3 dB. The addition of the "E" in front 20 means that we have taken the level and multiplied it by 21 the time for which it persists.
22 Q Okay. Now is that doubling calculation one 23 that is reported in Lukas?
24 A I suppose the calculation procedure is in (3J Repo, ten, Inc.
ueF m 25 the Kryter reference that we have discussed earlier. It is
9520 Sim 14-3 1 a standard calculation procedure in the field.
2 0 That is the one that is referenced on that 3 page in the first paragraph of answer 21, correct?
4 A Yes.
5 Q Now as far as the overlap of rotation, which 6 is your discussion on the top of page 21, and there is just 7 one paragraph on that page I guess, it is talking about how 8 if you are within two -- and I think the example there is 9 two 80 to 85 dB coverage rings the sirens you say would 10 overlap. But in order for it to be heard twice, wouldn't 11 it be true that the peaks couldn't coincide?
12 A It is unimportant.
() 13 Q Well, as I understand the effects you are talkin g 14 about here, it is that if there are two separate sirens you 15 can hear, and you hear them when they come up to their 16 peak loudness, then if they are out of sync, then you hear 17 one in one rotating cycle and then the other out of synchro-18 nization comes back and you hear that. And since you hear 19 it twice, you effectively double the sound duration. Is 20 that a correct statement?
21 A correct, yes. And, of course, if they over-22 lap, as I have also pointed out in my testimony, you increase 23 the sound level and both effects are equivalent.
24 0 Well, in order to increase the sound level 4 hp ,em, lac.
25 three dB, the synchronization would have to be exact and not t
9521 i
I Sim 14-4 1 a partial overlap, wouldn't it? !
l
- 2 A Yes. And in order to increase the sound level 1
i 3 exactly 3 dB, you would not increase the duration at all.
a
, 4 But if they are somewhat out of synchronization, you would i
5 increase the level less than 3 dB and you would increase
! 6 the duration sufficiently so that you would end up with i
7 a 3dB total increase in the EPNdB, you see.
8 So the point I am trying to make is that it is '
i 9 unimportant whether they are in synchonism or whether they 10 are not in synchronism.
11 0 The answer 22-describes the percentage of i
12 people who would be awakened by any EPNdB value. Then youu f
-1
() 13 used the straight value off that correlation line without 14 regard to uncertainty, and I believe we have already 15 established thate right?
! 16 A That is correct.
i 17 Q Now if you had a signal that was 10 db above 18 ambient, you could follow through the calculational procedure
{ 19 that you did for 7 dB before on the record and get an EPNdB j
l 20 for the siren at that level, could you not? ;
I
! 21 A Yes, you could. ,
1
- - 22 0 In your study and in that calculation would you '
[ 23 use the same corrections that you added in for various i 24 effects after you had converted to EPNdB and you increased Ac n.p ,,m, lac.
l 25 various ways? Would you add them the same?
i i
i i.. . . , - - .._ .--- . - - - . . . - - . . _ - - - ,- . . . _ , . , - . _ _ _ . _ , - . _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ . - _ _ , - - _ , - _ . . - -. _ . . _ . - . _ _ _
9522 Sim 14-5 I A No. l
( ;
2 Q Okay. How would that vary? What variables l l
3 affect those? I 4 A There are two variables of significance. One 5 of them is the different duration. .A sound that rises 10 6 dB above the background is going to l'ast for a longer period 7 of time than a sound that rises only 7 dB above the 8ll background given a constant siren rotation rate.
9' The other difference, which is minor, is the 10l onset correction, which is detailed in the method for i
II! calculation of the EPNdB.
I2! Q Okay. Se in fact the principal difference k_,. ) 13! simply consists in the fact that the 10 dB above ambient 14 sound is up in the audible range for more time in the siren j
i 15! rotation than the 7 dB ---
16 A And it is also louder.
17 !, Q Yes, it is louder and it is up for more time.
18 So what you are doing is you are integrating over the time i
19l it is above ambient and the level it is above ambient?
20 ! A Exactly.
l 21' Q Okay. Now in which direction does the effect 221 of the onset -- I mean in which direction does the onset 23' correction change when you go to higher dBs ambient? Does 24 it go down or up, or is there such a relationship?
u.-rAn Reponm. nne.
25 A In this case it goes up.
9523 Sim 14-6 1 Q Okay. It goes up with the increasing dB above 2 ambient. All right. And that is given in Kryter, correct?
3 A Yes.
4 Q Now I can't resist asking you this about the 5 3.37 people in the hou'sehold on page 23. Has anybody ever 6, made a ccmputation of the probability of waking up that t
7 .37 person?
8 A I made the computation for three people and 9 not 3.37.
10l 0 Okay. And in fact you then went through the i
11l procedure that is described in the paragraph below the 12! bottom paragraph on page 23 and that is how you actually
<x
() 13! go your 69 percent; is that correct?
I 14l A Yes. I think this is another area where I I
15: felt that it was worthwhile to be conservative. I already l
16l mentioned one, and that is not using the data reported in i
17 li Lukas where practically everyone is woken up by a tonal i
18 sound comparable to the siren sound.
19l The other one is not using the average household 20 size of the EPZ, but rather breaking it out for a distribution 21 of household sizes.
22 Q If I can back up to your saying that 800 hertz 23 was :omparable, isn't it true that in Lukas Table 1 it shows 24 that that sound is increased by steps of 5 dB? That is Ace 4Ai Reporters, Irw.
25 I believe on page 7 at the bottom what the study reported,
9524 Sim 14-7 .
1 in the far-right column.
/~);
(_ 2 A Let me read what it says.
3 0 Okay.
4 A Lukas is talking about the way in which the 5 people were exposed to the sound, the 800 hertz tone. It 6 says " Tone on for one second and off for eight seconds, 7 at each step intensity increased five dB. Tested after 8 3.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> of uninterrupted sleep," and presumably that is 9 when this process starts. "No indication of background 10 noise level."
11 Q Thank you. Now the assumption in the calculation 12 in the last paragraph on page 23 again is that the distribu-1
() 13 tion of numbers of persons in households in any of these 14 different zones of noise exposure that you estimated is the 15 same as the distribution of household size throughout the 16l EPZ; isn't that correct?
17 A That is correct.
18 0 okay. Let me refer you to answer 24, which 19 begins on page 24, and I want to look at the part on page 20 25, which I believe is your part of that answer, Mr. Keast.
21 Regarding the total of siren operating time, 22 your study assumes that 100 percent of the sirens worked, 23 doesn't it?
A Yes, it does.
(-) 24 Ac tj n.pon.n, Inc.
25 Q Let me ask you about the summary in answer 25.
i
9525 Sim 14-8 j The experimental evidence you refer to there, is that that
) which is given or referenced in Attachment 6?
2 3 A That is part of it.
4 Q And what is the rest of it?
5 A Well, as described in.my answer to question 25, 6 it says "These include numbers for sound attenuation through 7 the atmosphere in building structures, background noise 8l levels indcors, the locations of houses, the numbers of 9 houses by type of air conditioning and window condition, 10 awakening as a function of sound properties and family sizes."
11 Q Okay. Now the awakening is -- excuse me. Is 12; that all.
f')
sa 13 A Yes.
ja! O Awakening as a function of sound properties, 15, that is the EPNdB using the correlation line from Lukas; l
16 i is that right?
17; A From the Figure 2 of Lukas, yes, sir, i
18 Q Okay. Now concerning the hurricane in Florida, 19 do you know what percentage of people were asleep when that 20l siren system was activated when the hurricane was approaching?
21 A No. The only thing I know is that it occurred 22 at 1 in the morning.
23 Q Now I don't think I want to ask about the irato n 24 phone calls.
4 ;
us J a. peen, w.
25 (Laughter.)
l l
l
9526 Sim 14-9 1 Mr. Joyner, I would like to ask you on answer p
'/-
2 26 on page 26. What is it that triggers the dispatch of the 3 vehicles to do mobile alerting in the event of an accident 4 at Shearon Harris?
5 A (Witness Joyner) The route alerting or mobile:
6 alerting will be triggered automatically whenever the sirens 7 sound.
8 Q So does that mean that the same signal that 9 triggers that sirens actually alerts various police and 10 emergency response agencies directly?
Ill A Not necessarily. In a lot of cases the emergency l
12 services people will already be alerted in a scenario prior
()
/m 13l 1 to the sirens ever sounding, but they would react to the sirens 14' as a means of supplementing or backing up the sirens.
15j Q Okay. Now this mobile alerting, this is one of i
16l the special alerting types 'ct.at is discussed in FEMA 43, isn't 17l it?
18 f A Well, it is not exactly part of the design i
19l objective of FEMA 43 as far as special alerting sirens.
It 20i is a system that the State has designed using emergency 21 vehicles as a backup or supplemental system to the primary 22 system.
23 0 I didn't mean to ask that with respect to sirens, if I misspoke, but it is a backup?
w 9 anepw.n.24 Iu.
25 A That is correct.
9527 Si 14-10 Q Now you say it has been determined that -- and 1
) this is about line 18 -- "It has been determined that there 3
! are sufficient vehicles and personnel to perform the mobile 4
alerting in a timely manner. The conclusion applies to both daytime and nighttime, 1 a.m. to 6 a.m. conditions. "
Is it true that the State Highway Patrol in North 7
Carolina and most police departments reduce their patrol 8
1 a.m. to 6 a.m.?
9 A N t all of our routes depend upon the State 10
- j Highway Patrol or the police. Some routes do. Each one i
12l f these agencies, the emergency services agencies have
]m g concurred in and say they have the actual resources to do gj 4 what we have got in the plan.
s, sh, M de answer to my predous question 15 I
was yes, wasn't it?
g!l l A Would you restate your question?
I jg Q Isn't it true that the State Highway Patrol and 39 most police departments in this area reduce their patrol 20 f rces during the shift that includes 1 a.m. to 6 a.m.?
g MS. RIDGWAY: Objection, Your Honor. The witness has just stated that the agencies have concurred g I that they have the resources that are counted on. Given that statement by the witness, it is irrelevant whether or not
"" g they reduce their forces, you know, for whatever other reason.
9528 Sim 14-11 1 MR. EDDLEMAN: I think I am entitled to bring
- l' us 2
out evidence which might lead to a reasoned argument against that regardless of what he said, and he didn't answer my question, and I was trying to be nice to him.
(Laughter.)
MS. RIDGWAY: I didn't -- excuse me, Your Honor.
6 JUDGE KELLEY: The Board thinks the question is proper. The question is overruled.
I MR. EDDLEMAN: Do you want me to ask it again?
WITNESS JOYNER: Yes, if you will.
BY MR. EDDLEMAN:
11 Q Isn't it true that the North Carolina State f~)>
x- 13;
! Highway Patrol and many police departments or agencies covering 14; l the Harris EPZ reduce their patrol forces during the shift I
i that includes 1 a.m. to 6 a.m.?
15
\
A (Witness Joyner) I have no definite information 16i
- to that fact.
17; 181 Q You don' t know for the Highway Patrol or any 1
of these other agencies?
19I
! A I could make a guess, but I do not know, no.
20!
Q All right, sir. The reference to use of mobile I alerting that is made in the first full paragraph on page 27, 22j starting in about line 7, "Novmeber 1977 evacuation of 24 between 400 and 500 people in Clyde, North Carolina due to I
u r.ocal repones. lac-a flash flood."
25 i l
1 I
l
i 9529 l i
Sim 14-12 g Do you know how manY scuare miles were covered O 2 er ehee evecueeien2 3
A That was approximately six square miles? !
4 Q And do you know what the population of the Harris l
8 5 .-
6 A No, I do not. I could go back and research it, 7 but to give it to you right here, I could not. :
t 8 Q Well, let me ask the panel in general if any of 9
you know? I am trying to make an estimate of this, and I 10 find approximately 7,000 residences with an average of 3 plus 11 People in them, and it looks to me like about 20 to 25 thousand t 12 People. Does that sound reasonable?
^
O is ' " t *" = = * " " * ) ** * =e'"i"5 "" der 20,000 ,
ja A (Witness Joyner) Yes, just below 20,000 people in [
15 che EPZ.
16 Q All right, sir.
17 Mr. Mileti, or Dr. Mileti, isn't it?
18 A (Witness Mileti) Yes, it is. !
99 Q Excuse me. You are a part of this, and other.than 20 giving your qualifications, it basically starts in with 21 question and answer 28, doesn't it?
22 A 28 seems to be a question and answer directed 23 explicitly towards me, yes.
24 Q Did you discuss what you were going to put in ne hp.*n. lac.
25 with your testimony with anyone before you put it together? +
h t
9530
@im 14-13 1 A No. I talked over what I was going to do in the
'v' 2 general approach, that I was going to involve an estimate of 3 informal notification with Lisa Ridgway. She is the one that 4 asked me to do it.
5 0 And in that discussion were any things suggested 6 for you to say?
7 A Absolutely not, no.
cnd Sim 8, Sua fois !
9' -
10 11 12 I
) 13 14 15 16 17 18 i
19 I 20 21 22 23 p 24 AcetJ recon.n, lac.
25
9531
- 15-1-SueW 1 Q Were anything suggested that you should not
'm> 2 say?
3 A (Witness Mileti) No.
4 Q All right. Now, concerning the informal 5 notification phenomenon, isn' t it true that CP&L's emergency 6 planning information asks people not to use the telephones !
I 7 if the siren system is activated?
I I
8 A If what you mean by emergency information is l I
the emergency brochure, yes, the brochure does ask people 9l ;'
10 ! not te use the telephone except if they have an emergency. ;
11 Q Okay. Now, you then go on in Answer 29 con-i 12 ! cerning findings about informal notification to refer to a !
(c)
, 13 ! research record. I refer you specifically to Lines 4 through 14 ! 7 on Page 29.
15 : Now, can you cite what this research record d
16 i is?
17 ! A The research record I'm referring to here are l
18 studies that have in general sought to explain and describe 19 how it is that publics have responded to warnings of impend-20 ! ing catastrophes and emergencies. And the research records 21 began in the '50s and continues today and is a bit diverse.
22 If one examined those studies, one could find, j 23 as I did, some data that would lead you to be able to I
a 24 i conclude what percentage of the public in a particular w4 6 cmom..w. ;
25 emergency first learned of the emergency by what we might l l
9532 -
- SueW 1 consider here informal notification. For example, Ron Perry, 2 when he was at Battelle Research Institute back in I think 3 it was 1977, investigated four communities in which separate 4 events -- separate flood events -- in which flood warnings 5 were disseminated, and he gathered in his study information 6 regarding where people got their first news that the flood I
7 was about to happen.
l 8 As I recollect, in one community fifty percent I
9 cf the population learned of it through friends, neighbors l 10 and relatives. In other communities, it was 1.ess.
II The range went in that report from twenty-two 12 ! percent to fifty percent. There are other example studies
(_')
13 f where that kind of information was gathered.
14 I Would you like for me to tell you about the i
15 others I recall?
16 l 0 Yes, please go ahead. t 17 A Sure. In Rapid City, which was another flood 18 event that began around, as I recall, ten o' clock at night -
19 j it happened to have been the topic of my dissertation, and 20 I investigated it. Approximately forty percent of the local l
21 population learned of the impending flood catastrophe and j I
22 got their first warning from friends, neighbors and relatives.:
I 23 Thomas Draybeck, a sociologist at the University
,m l 24
()
we,.e n. con.n inc.
of Denver, did a study in 1965 on the 1965 Denver flood, in j 25 which he was looking at the -- how families responded to
9533 l
- SueW1 flood warnings. And he concluded that thirty-one percent 2 of population at risk learned first of the impending 3 catastrophe from relatives. Now, he excluded asking questions 4 about neighbors and friends, so the overall rate of in-5 formal notification in that particular emergency would have 6 been higher.
7 Back in the mid-50s a fellow named Dansick did 8 a preliminary piece of disaster research'for the National 9 Academy of Sciences, also investigating a flood in which 10 informal notification rates were estimated to be between 11 thirty and thirty-five percent, t
12 l The Mississippi State University back in O 13 1977 did a study of public response and warning responsa j
14 to Hurricane Eloise and informal notification rates there 15 ranged between thirty and thirty-five percent.
16 There are other studies that indicate higher i
17 informal notification rates. For example, Mike Lyndell'c 1
18 research along with others on Mt. Saint Helens suggested a i 19 much higher informal notification rate in one or two of the 20 communities that were studied.
21 The point is that informal notification is a 22 natural process. It goes on in emergencies. The actual -
23 percentage involved can vary from emergency to emergency.
24 Q okay. In fact, Dr. Mileti, of all these
> noemn, ine.
25 studies that you have just told me about, the only one that I
L
9534
- 15-4-SueW 1 is cited in print in your testimony that I can find is the
'~'
2 Mt. Saint Helens one that gave the very highest number ,
3 that is available; isn't that true?
4 A Of the two studies I cited in my testimony, 5 the percentage for Mt. Saint Helens was higher than the 6 percentage for Rapid City. I wasn't meaning to illustrate 7 modal or average informal notification rate by citing those !
l 8 percentages, just illustrating that informal notification f 9, occurs and that the percentage of people involved, or who 10l l get informal notification, can vary from emergency to l
Il i emergency depending on a range of criteria.
t 12 - Q Now, how long was the period in which informal
(~)
'x_/ 13 l notification might take place in, say, the Hurricane Eloise 14 i event?
15 A Most of the studies that tried to investigate 16 what people first did after they got a warning, or how many i
17 '
people were involved in informal notification, did not ask 18 questions about how many minutes it was after they engaged 19 in a piece -- af ter they first got information or who they 20 got it from.
21 i But what most studies typically do is to ask 22 people who they first heard about the impending catastrophe .
23 from, how they happened to learn of it. Some people would 24 say sirens if cirens were sounded. Some people would say va nwonen. nm.
25 neighbor or relative, et cetera. And then descriptive data I
9535 l
i e
l i
h_fl5-S-SueWI along those lines would be produced. l 2 The next question that typically follows in l
) !
3 these sorts of studies is what's the first thing you did i
?
I 4 after you learned of it. As I recollect from Rapid City, 5 again because it was my dissertation, some people said: I ,
i l1 i 6 continued drying the dishes. And other people said: I i
)
l i 7 called my mother.
l 8 And I would presume that that kind of immediate l I
! 9 response would occur within a faw minutes after their j 10 initial receipt of the warning information. IIowever, some !
I II studies did accumulate information more precisely on time.
i 12 The Lyndall study on Mt. Saint fielens is one. i i i O is a oxay. And now 1 asxed you a s11ghe1y dieferene 14 question. What you seem to be saying to me in that answer
{
I j 15 is that most of these studies don't ask how long the person 16 you notified, a person waited or did something else before i i i 17 they notified the person who received the warning informally l '
i r ;
! 18 or from someone else, but that when you looked at what people l !
! ! l 19 l report they did first some of them say: I turned around and l ;
I l !
20 notified somebody once they heard of it.
l ; [
l i l 21 Is that correct? -
l l' 1
l 22 A rem not sure I understand your question. Let , [
23 !
l me answer it this way.
24 Some studies ask after you first learned of b Rosetters, Inc.
25 the emergency, the impending catastrophe, got your first
i 9536 I
I !
1 #15-6-SueWI warning, what was the very first thing that you did. And 2 those answers I think would fall into a few minutes in l !
i 3 response to that. '
i 4 And I'm not sure I understood the other part f l 1 l l 5 of the question. j j
j 6 Q Well, do you know what percentage in those i y studies that did ask what's the very first thing that you l
}
g did, what percentage of the people said: I notified some-9 one?
j 10 A That varies from study to study, and it can j
j 11 range anywhere from thirty percent up to quite a bit more.
j i 12 Q All right. Now, the question I was trying to j i
!O is ask you earlier, 1ee me erv to come hack to. when a f1ood .
f 14 is impending, were these events flash floods or did they 4
! l I
15 occur over some period of time? !
16 A Disaster researchers in sociology studied both-
{ 17 types, both flash floods and long term floods that take days l
l 18 to emerge. Most of the studies, however, by coincidence, [
, 1 i i 19 have focused on flash floods. t i
4 l
i l 20 Q Okay. And what's the typical range of time !
I 21 from when a flash flood is, say, first announced to anybody !
i l 22 to the time when it has already happened and is over? ~ (
i }
23 Is there such a typical time?
24 A Well, I'm not a fluvial geomorphologist or a
'e w n ,wes,sne.
7 l 25 climatologist, however, I can tell you as a sociologist, my I i l
i
9537
- 15-7-SueM own interpretation of how fast flash floods can happen.
()
2 They can happen real fast.
3 For example, in Rapid Cf.ty most of the town 4 went -- had just minutes to respond to the news that the 5 flood was coming.
6 Q Now, was that -- excuse me. Go ahead.
7 A The National Weather Service had some informa-ei tion and some officials had some information beforehand.
I 9! Individuals up in the canyon had information before that.
10 But flash floods can happen extremely quickly, i
11 , Q Okay. But you can also soo the flood coming 12 . at you usually, can't you?
~
/ '3
(/ ~
13 ! A No. In most flash floods, the problem is that 14 the water can hit so quick that there are non-onvironmental 15 clues or quos that an imponding catastrophe is near. They 16 are not at all liko long term floods.
17 In Rapid City -- and I can describe how that 18 flood occurred so you can understand how quickly it happened.
l 19 ; one of the respondents I recall interviewing was telling 20 l about the first thing that she did when she heard that a 21 flood was imponding was look out the front window, and sho 22 saw her daughter drive up in her car. And than she blinkod '.
23 har cyos and the flood wators woro up to the curb.
24 She blinked har oyos again and the flood waters .
y.,9a.oon.n. inc.
25 woro up to har stomach. And sho blinked har oyos a third timo l
i
9538
- 15-8-SueW 1 and her head was pounding against the ceiling. And that's O 2 how fast that flash flood hit.
3 Q Okay. Under a condition like that, I think 4 people -- wouldn't you agree that people would place a 5 very high priority on notifying other people?
6 A I don't think that particular woman had the 7 time to notify anyone.
3 Q No. But what I mean is under conditions, not 9 like she was particularly exposed to, but knowing that a 10 flash flood can come on that fast wouldn't that make people 11 tend to want to notify other people if possible fast?
12! A That's an interesting hypothesis. I don't know
( 13 that it's the case. l 14 I think the scenario in which I would hypothe-1 15 size people would be most inclined to get in touch with j 16 others is the scenario in which sirens were blaring. j f
17 Q All right. Now, you describe a step-by-step l l
18 process of confirmation through from the paragraph that j l
19 begins on the bottom of Page 29 down through the bottom of ,
l 20 Page 30. l l
21 Did you in applying this confirmation process 22 to Harris and considering informal notification consider how ,
23 many people in the EPZ don't have a radio or t.v.?
24 A No, I did not.
m n===. W.
25 Q Did you consider how many people don't have any
9539
- 15-9-SueW 1 nearby neighbors?
w' 2 A Yes, I did.
3 ,
Q How many is that? What percentage? Do you 4 know?
5 A I asked some people who did wind shear survey 6 of the area and they told me that most people had neighbors 7 that they could see, somewherebetweeneightyandninetyper-l cent, l
g j i
9 0 Could see, line of sight. But that doesn't j l
10 speak to the distance; is that correct? l 11 A That's right.
. i 12 ! Q Did you take into account the percentage of r~x i kJ 13 ! people who don't have a phone in the EPZ?
14 l A No, I did not. I was just focusing on informal I
)fj notification which need not occur over the phone.
I 16 l 0 Okay. But one of the methoda of confirmation I s 17 ll you are talking about on Page 30 again, Lines 13, 14 and 15, 1e l 4 Line 15 you are talking about people may want to hear the j f ,
19 warning several times. Okay. 1 20 ! That certainly would be impacted by not having !
2; a radio or t.v., wouldn't it?
22 A That certainly could effect it. It would not .l!
l 23 prohibit it. I i
1 w.4 24
- a. cort.,,, w.
Q That's right. But it would -- and not'having a j I
25 phone or not having nearby neighbors who can run over and !
I
9540 ;
- 15-10-SueW1 yell at you if they saw your house was dark, those things 2 also could inhibit this sort of informal response working, 3 couldn't it?
4 A It's indeed the case that if you ion't have a 5 phone you can't make a phone call, yes. So, it would effect 6 it.
7 Q And nobody can call you either if you don't 8 have a phone? l 9 A Yes, that's true.
10 (Laughter.) ,
I 11 Unless you have a walkie-talkie and they can l 12 call you through some other means.
() 13 Q All right. And, in fact, another means in 14 that connection would be a tone alert radio, wouldn't it?
15 A I don't know enough about tone alert radios i 16 to know that you could call someone over them.
17 Q Well, you could notify someone by one, couldn't 18 you?
19 A I presume so.
20 Q Okay. Now, on Page 31, you talk about the 21 tendency of people in emergencies to form groups and to 22 offer aid and assistance to one another. This starts at
.)
23 about Line 12 and goes down through and beyond Line 14.
24 Do you have that before you?
n r .. ene.
25 A Yes.
P
9541
- -ll-SueW Q Okay. Can you tell me what percentages in 2 the literature of people offer aid and assistance to one 3 another?
4 A I couldn't give you a quantative answer to 5 that question. I certainly could answer it qualitatively.
6 In Rapid City, we found out that very few 7 people had the time to engage in this sort of behavior. It 8 was one of the few emergencies in history where people did 9 not evacuate as united families because there wasn't time i 10 to unite the family.
1 11 On the other hand, there are, if given time, j 12 in most emergencies -- any emergency in which there is
- 13 enough time this phenomena would occur. So, in a hundred 14 percent of the cases where there is enough time, people 15 would form groups. In a hundred percent of the cases where f
i 16 there isn't enough time, people wouldn't.
17 And in cases where there is a small amount of 1
l 18 time, I'm sure there would be a mix.
I I 19 Q Now, you said you didn't quantify it but you 20 have mentioned enough time. What kind of range of times are 21 we talking about?
22 Do you have any idea? 1 23 A Well, if there is only minutes like there was 24 in Rapid City, there wouldn't be enough time for people to n o orers,Inc.
25 form into groups.
9542
- SueW Q And it would take more time to do more of 2 these things? The more different activities people had to 3 do or were going to do in forming groups and working together 4 and offering aid and assistance to one another and being 5 in communication in emergencies, all of that would tend 6 to take more time, wouldn't it?
7 A I don't understand the question. It references 8 any kind of conceivable behavior.
9 And some behaviors take more time to perform 10 than others.
11 Q Well, the more things you do the more time {
12 l it's likely to take, isn't that true? l 13 A I suppose for some things, the more-of-them 14 that you have to do the longer it can take. But there are f i
15 other behaviors that don't take a lot of time. l t
16 I don't really understand your question..
17 Q Well, what I'm trying to distinguish is, say, l
18 if I do two things and these take a certain amount of time i 19 then if I'm going to do a third one that takes more time 20 than just doing the two, isn't that true?-
21 A It depends on how long each one takes. If 22 you are doing three things that take two seconds, it takes -
l 23 six seconds to do them.
l
() 24 n-Feeers neooners, Inc.
If you are doing one thing that takes an hour l 25 to do, it takes an hour to do it.
9543
- 15-13-SueW1 Q Okay. But to be specific, if I have two 2 specific things that I'm doing, say, I turn the t.v. on 3 to get the message confirmed and I grab my suitcase, okay, 4 then those two things take a certain time, let's say. Then, 5 if I'm going to also pick up the phone and call Aunt Martha 6 and say: Hey, do you know about this, that's going to take 7 more time because it's another thing to do in addition to 8 the other things that I'm doing.
9 Isn't that true?
10 A I don't think it's entirely true. I, for I
11 example, have a cordless telephone and I could turn on the j 12 t.v. and go get my suitcase while I'm talking on the phone.
l
() 13 I mean, one could engage in multiple behaviors l 14 at the same time.
15 Q I think Southern Bell has got a selling job 1
16 for you, sir. l 17 I don't mean that in any disparaging way. I l 18 think it might be a good idea for people to have that i 19 capability. l 20 But let me ask you, Answer 30 on Page 32 where l
21 you are talking about research efforts on actual emergencies, 22 were those the citations to the literature that you were 23 giving me earlier? The proportion of the population at 24 risk that learned of the emergency through informal or roomn.w. :
25 indirect notification --
l 1
9544 l
- 15-14-SueM1 A I'm sorry. I haven't found yet what you are O 2 referencing.
4 3 Q I'm sorry. Let me refer you to the beginning ,
4 of Answer 30 which appears in the lower half of Page 32 in 5 the testimony.
6 A Yes, I'm there now. Thank you.
7 Q Okay. What I want to ask you is, do the 8 research efforts that you refer to there, do they comprise 9 the ones that you were describing to me earlier, those 1
10 various studies of disasters, how many people engaged in 11 informal or indirect notification?
12 A Some of them do and some of them don't.
l
() 13 Q Okay. So that there are others?
, 14 A Well, I'm referencing in my Answer 30 two 15 bodies of literature.
l 16 Q All right, sir. Is one of those the one that f ,
i ;
l f 17 you cited to me earlier, or does that overlap? ;
i 18 A No. One of them is, and it's the second one, !
i 19 the one that begins on Line 16, Additionally, some research .
i 20 efforts on actual emergencies have collected data on the
- 21 proportion of a particular population at risk. . ." et cetera.
22 Q Okay. So that's one part. And the first part _ ,
l 23 . is the one that appears above that, Lines 13 through just 24 the first word on 16?
no wan.ix.
25 A That's right.
l
-- --_ ,-,"w- m 1. my<. w ms y y p m,. w-- e w my.e4. n..-,p,- e,,oay,,< -p 4-y pi-- y.w m.,,,m,4m,z- p w- g4gmm ya
9545
- 15-15-SueW Q Okay. Now, were any of the research items you O 2 cite concerning populations or disasters in Eastern North 3 Carolina?
4 A Do you mean the literature I cited in answer 5 to one of your oral questions or the literature I cite in 6 my testimony?
7 Q Well, the l iterature you -- you don't actually 8 cite it straight out, you don't say look at this and th'is 9 except for those two references you gave earlier.
10 But the literature you are referring to, let 11 me say it that way. How much of that relates to disasters ,
12 ! or population responses in Eastern North Larolina?
(f 13 A If what you are asking me is, has a sociologicall 14 study of this character ever been done in North Carolina I
15 I would have to say yes. The communities that that research ;
i 16 has been done in, I don't know caough about the State of 17 North Carolina to know if it was in the north, south, east 18 or west part of the State.
f 19 I do know, however, about studies that were done' 20 on the North Carolina coast because of hurricanes and earth-21 quake warning.
22 Q Okay. Now, concerning Answer 31 on Page 33, !
23 when you refer to the " natural" rate of informal / indirect 24 notification there, is that the rate that tends to be neoo,ws, snc.
l 25 observed in the studies that you cited for me earlier? l i
9546 4
- 15-16-SueW A In general, yes. What I meant by the natural 2 rate of informal or indirect notification is what one might
~
3 be able to reasonably expect to occur if one didn't take 4 steps to try to enhance the rate at which it occurred.
5 Q Okay. Now, did you in working this through c
6 take into account any probability of people being woken 7 up and then just going back to sleep?
i I
8 A Yes.
END #15 9 .
Joe flws '
10 j 11 12 i
!O n
14 15 ,
16 f l 17 l I
18 19
, 20
, 21 I
22 L 1
23 24
.corters, inc.
25 l
9547 16-1-JonWal 1 Q What is that probability?
Os 2 A I don' t have a probability of it. I took in that 3 as well as a range of other factors into account when I 4 selected the multipliers that I used, and selected those f
5 multipliers on the basis of what I was able to discover in 6 prior emergencies about what occurred. What percentage of 7 the population was either informally identified or engaged in i
t 8 attempts at informal notification, and selecting a reasonable 9 estimate of that sort of behavior would take into account all' 10 the factors that would effect whether or not it occurred in 11 a particular place.
12 ! Q Do you explain anywhere in your testimony that
() 13 was prefiled how you took into account, for example, the 14 factor of people going back to sleep once they had been 15 l woken up?
I 16 A I don't explicitly address that, nor any of the 17 other things that could be taken into account, or going to 18 comprising a rate estimate of informal notification.
19 Q Well, why didn't you do that?
20 A I thought that I had. The method that I used 21 to select the multipliers that I used. For example, the 22 multiplier of what actually operated at Rapid City was that _
f 23 forty percent of the population who learned of the I
(~)
(,j 24 emergency through informal notification. j l
m c.oonm, inc.
l 25 That occurred. The ficod hit, I believe, at
9548 16-2-JoeWal
(^3 1 ten-thirty at night. People go to bed early in Rapid City.
%)
2 Most of them were asleep and in bed at the ,
3 time. That number would take into account that some of 4 them would have rolled over and gone back to sleep. l 5 Q Okay. Mr. Keast, did you consider in preparing 6 your estimates any probability or data on what percentage of ,
7 people once woken up by a siren would just roll over and Bl go back to sleep, or go back to sleep?
9l'.
A (Witness Keast) Yes. I consider it to be zero.
I 10 Q Do you have any studies or data that substantiate i
11 ! that?
12 : A Well, assuming an adequate public information
\_
/ )s progran, I cannot conceive of someone being awoken by 13 ;
emergency siren and rolling over and going back to sleep.
14 l 15 Q Isn't it true that these sirens sound just like 16 l fire sirens?
l 17! A Not for ten minutes they don't.
I 18 0 You wouldn't know, would you, whether the fire 19 siren in Apex sometimes goes on for five or ten minutes, 20 would you?
21 A I would think that is highly unlikely. Siren 22 systems normally time out after three minutes maximum. This-23 system, they are going to punch the button, and punch the l (_)s 24 button. They are really going to be a long time, and I i A=4ewscoomn.w. ;
25 can't imagine it being misinterpreted. !
I
9549 4 16-3-JonWal I 1 Q I can't testify, so I can't go any further with j
([) 2 that. The compilation here, Mr. K east, to the sixty-nine i !
l 1
3 percent of the sleeping households awakened, three percent 4 already being awake, that effectively assumes that everybody 5 who is awake hears the sirens, doesn't it?
I t
6 A Yes, it does.
7 Q Okay. Now, Dr. Mileti, you come out at the top i
8 of page 35 in this calculation you are describing about l 9 informal notification, with a' number.of 78 percent, and i
10 , you then say you adjust this estimate by ten percent.
I 11 l What is that adjustment for?
12 A (Witness Mileti) Well, as I explained in my O- I 13 : testimony on the next page, the procedure I used to estimate i
14 l the proportion of the population that was -- would be alerted' i
15 l by the sirens that would engage in informal notification 16 attempts was so conservative, and so underestimates what 17 would actually occur for a variety of reasons.
18 For example, on Line 9 on page136, I explain that. ,
19 I didn't include in my computation that somebody, or household 20 that was formerly alerted, could engage in more than one ,
21 act of informal notification.
)
22 That is, for example, if they were doing it by ..
23 telephone calling two friends instead of just one. And so i
l 24 I didn't include that in my calculation.
neomes, inc.
25 Additionally, my computation presumed that the I.. . . _ . .m.,--, . . . _ _ . - . - _ _ . _ _ . , . - ~ , . _ . . - - - - - - - - - - - - . , - ~ . - , -
16-4-JonWal i
1 longer the process of informal notification occurring, that i
() 2 persons who would be notified informally -- I didn't ta\a l
3 into account that they themselves could engage in the 1
4 informal notification of other people.
$ Another factor I didn't take into account, is 6 that during emergency some people are alerted by just
{ 7 simply the activity that is going on around them, or in the l i
8 streets around them. Additionally, I didn't take into ) i i
9 account -- I was very stingy when I picked the multipliers 10 that I used, in my opinion.
i 11 I didn't take into account that I would hypothesize
13 would get more informal notification and stirring around than i l 14 the kind of emergencies that I used to look at to see the !
l t l 15 actual percentages that were involved in informal notification. l 1
j 16 Additionally, some of the studies that I used !
i i
(
17 found that the typical or modal frequency -- or frequently '
L i
i 18 occurring number is that thirty percent of the population ,
I 19 learned of the emergency through informal notification. !
i i j, 20 I took that thirty percent, my first walk through , ,
! i :
i 21 my calculation, as the percentage of people who would [
- 22 attempt informsl notification. Grossly underestimating, .2 ;
f l l 23 therefore, the numbers that I came out with. !
24 I, therefore, wanted to add a little bit -- I newwn. w. g 25 should have added -- I could have added ten percent more. !
[
J b
16-5-JoeWal . 9551 l
1 But I took only two percent to add. I took the extremely l
l 2 conservative number, because what I was trying to do in my ,
3 work was try to estimate the lowest possible range of l
4 informal notification that could occur in the Harris EPZ. l 5 Q Dr. Mileti, first in all that computation that i 6 you are talking about, you also effectively assumed that i 7 whenever a notification is attempted, it works, informally, 8 don't yo @
9 A Absolutely not, no.
10 Q Don't you assume that everyone who tries to
' 11 notify somebody else, gets somebody, and that the only i
12 ! thing that prevents them from -- the only effect that
, 13 reduces that is simply the probability of whoever they 14 alert has already been alerted, isn't'that true?
15 A I presume that they would be tnsuccessful 16 at their informal notification attempt seventy-two percent i
17 of the time.
18 Q Because they had notified a household that 19 was already alerted, and done so s uccessfully, isn't that 20 true? ,
21 A That is right.
22 Q Okay. And isn't it also true that your entire .i I
23 Answer 34, that you were basically giving me again, in 4 I
24 response to my question about the two percent, talks about j newwn. ix.
l 25 conservatism in the eighty percent, and not about the two
9552 16-6-JoeWal
,- 1 percent?
O 2 Please feel free to look it over.
3 A My eighty percent includes the two percent. l l
4 Q That is what I am getting at. When you said l 5 eighty percent was conservative, you gave all these reasons j 6 that hadn't been taken into account, you said. '
t 7 But that doesn't say why the two percent is in 8, there. That just says what you think about the eighty ,
I i
9l Percent, isn't that true on its face?
l 10 ' A The eighty percent is seventy-eight percent, plus II two percent, to comprise the eighty percent. I put the two 12 percent in because I was unable to find a basis for feelinc
/^T
(._) comfortable about quantifying the range of factors I wasn' t 13 l!
L ::
I4 i taking into account, and adding two percent seemed incredibly:
15 ;' conservative and safe to do.
16 ! This adding of two percent would have been the i
- l 17' same as using the multiplier of point four instead of a 18 multiplier or point three.
39 I would feel comfortable and extremely conservative 20 had I chosen a multiplier of point five, but I'was trying to 21 pick the absolute lowest standard.
22 0 Is the derivation of the two percent then the .
23 consideration that if you used point four as the multiplier, ,
,( ,) 24 you would have gotten two percent more notified? j WederW Reporters, Inc.
25 A No. I picked what I considered to be all the ,
i
! b 1 \
.16-7-JosWal 9553 1 things that I excluded that were unable to be quantified, O 2 and I list some of them in my testimony.
4 l 3 Q And those are the basis of the two percent, is 4 that what you are saying?
5 A I was saying that -- was that the same question ;
i 6 that I was answering before. ,
1 4 7 0 I think it was. The record will show.
l 1'
8 A Well, let me start again then. I selected a 9 procedure that was very simple. Equivalent to sixth grade 10 arithmetic. And the procedural equation that I used 11 excluded many of the factors that would be nice to take 12 l into account if we were trying to do something extremely
. () 13 precise.
! I4 The natur of the social science is such that i
15 sometimes we can't be as precise as we would like to be.
16 I needed, therefore, to exclude a range of factors that 17 ' would increase the actual amount of informal notification i
18 that would occur, because I couldn't find a basis for 19 precisely quantifying them and including them in the 3
1 20 equation.
21 When I concluded the calculation of the 22 equation, I added another two percent to compensate for .;
I 23 that, but that two percent probably should have been' a lot i
1 24 higher to compensate for the factors that I excluded.
w n o orm s,inc.
25 Q Does that complete your answer?
I
. . _. . - - ~ . - . . _ - . . - -- -_ - -- . -.
9554 16-8-JonWal .
t I A Yes.
O 2 JUDGE KELLEY: Are we close to a break point?
I 3 MR. EDDLEMA N: That will be fine.
4 JUDGE KELLEY: Can you give me an idea of your l
5 time with this panel?
6 MR. EDDLEMAN: I can finish them today I am 7 fairly sure. How late do you propose to go?
8 JUDGE KELLEY: Well, lets break, come back, and l 9 see how it goes.
l 10 MS, RIDGWAY: Your Honor --
II l MR. EDDLEMAN: I can start in a little bit on the 12i Staff if I have to today, but I am not ready to do them all ;
13 at once.
I# ! JUDDGE KELLEY: Given the Board questions and I
15 what not, I don't think we will get to that. Ms . Ridgway, 16 did you have something?
I7 MS. RIDGWAY: Yes, Your Honor. I just wanted 18 to verify with the Board my earlier inderstanding that the :
j 19 siren sounding during the exercise was not set up as a test, 20 and therefore, we did not have, for example, people out in j
21 the field to verify the operability of the sirens.
22 Then, in addition, I have the phone number for -
23 'the Board, which I can provide to you during the break. i ,
i i 24 JUDGE KELLEY: Thank you. A ten minute break.
me-reams reco,wn,sne.
25 (Short recess taken. )
9555 16-9-JosWal 1 JUDGE KELLEY: I would like to report a
>' }
2 telephone conversation that I just completed with Dr.
3 Bassiouni in Boston.
- 4 We talked, I guess, for five minutes or so, and ,
i i t
i 5 I simply followed the procedures as best I could that I i
6 suggested to you in terms of outlining what had been said ;
4 7 here, and the posture that we were in, and the upshot of ,
i 8 it was that he indicated that on the basis of a rather i 9 quick reading of at least some of the testimony -- he has l 10 testimony both from the Applicants and from FEMA, that there f 11 were aspects with which he felt he did disagree, and I didn't go into with him at all what they were. And we didn't 12 l t
) 13 reach the merits of any of this, i :
14 1 Just that based on that one rather quick reading
, j 15 ' -- he just got the testimony a few days ago -- he had some problems with it, and he said that he would undertake to :
16 i
t l 17 sit down and read through it more carefully.today and 1
i 18 tomorrow, and that he could be available for a telephone 19 conference call tomorrow afternoon at five o'cicek, and
! 20 we sat that-because it seemed that once he had a chance I
21 to read it we might as well go ahead and try to resolve 22 this or at least move forward on it. ,
l 23 So, that is the arrangement that I have with l
()
i l 24 him, and it will be up to the Board, which we will do, to f
= > A m m e n o m e n ,ine.
25 attempt to set up a conferencing arrangement here at the -
I
.--..----..--i-+-ei-.-..--m -
y --y.-3---wwp, or,p.- w--se- Te w- -
y- -w----mv = y w e eg , .-.- ,,,+a --
--9-i.gw e. wy -*y-.H --,e-m, --we--e - ---
mv_e e .ew yy
1 1'
9556 )
16-10-JosWa,1 I Holiday Inn. If we can't, we will have to go someplace else. l
()
l {
j 2 But we will do that and let you know. The 1 l
L 3 State Attorney General's Office, as Mr. Eddleman indicated,
?
l 4 seems to be interested in the matter. They, too, had called ,
5 Dr. Bassiouni earlier today, so he has had rather heavy I
i 6 phone traffic. .
I I
7 We can notify the State's people about this i i 8 call, and ask them to sit in if they wish. So that is'where I t I 9 that stands. !
i i !
10 Comments or questions, Mr. Baxter? l l 1
11 MR. BAXTER: I have a little bit of a concern.
F j 12 l I haven't spoken with anybody at the Attorney General's
() 13 ' Office, but they are interested in participating in a l 14 telephone conference, but they are not here at the hearing. ,
15 JUDGE KELLEY: Well, it is a little bit i
) 16 unusual. The State, and correct me if I am wrong, came i
17 in as an interested State with respect to the drug contention. ;
l 18 As of now, the State has done nothing with respect to this -
3 1 i i 19 contention.
! 20 I guess I am assuming that they can certainly l 21 have to abide by our rules, whether we get into a dispute j I
i
! 22 a lmut -- they have no participatory rights at this point. .l
( 23 Sitting here this af ternoon, they are not in the case.
! l 24 If they want to come in tomorrow and ask to be !
mowen. w. j 25 an interested State, I suppose we will consider that.
i
. _ . . _ _ , . ---.--,..-..._.,-._.....-_-.._~,_.-_,..__m._--.. _ . _ _ , - . . . _ . - . _ _ . . . _ _ . . , . _ . . - - . _ _ _ . -
16-ll-JoeWal. 9557 l
., i
! 1 MR. BAXTER: That is one point, Mr. Chairman,
() 2 but the other one is also they are not in a very good l
3 position to argue about the utility of adding to the record 4 or subtracting from the record, or who contradicts whom, 5 when they haven't participated in the -- ,
- t 6 JUDGE KELLEY: As of now, I would think they j 7 would sit in the room and listen. If we -- if the State ;
i j 8 wants to take a more active role, then they will have to ;
I l 9 ask for that, and argue on its favor, and we will hear it, 10 but I think all we envision right now is that they have i
11 shown enough of an interest, so we will let them know and
) they can come and be there. We will have a court reporter !
12 l 4
() 13 there so that whatever is said is going to be. recorded i
14 l anyway.
, l 15 I might should add that I told Mr. Bassiouni 16 a little bit about the proposed format; namely that when l we got on toterrow the Board would take a lead on this, but 17 l l 1
l 18 that the counsel for the parties, and the parties would be 19 there and they would have an opportunity to question or l
20 ! comment, and that it would be on the record. And that is i
i i l' j 21 - where it stands with him. j i ;
22 But I think your point about the State is well .i !
23 taken, Mr. Baxter.. We will notify them, but simply point i
)
24 out they are being invited to come and sit in the room, and amerwes, anc.
if they want participatory rights, it is up to them to seek l.
25
(
l
9558 16-12-JonWai .
I them.
i
\) 2 MR. ROCHLIS: Is this telephone conference, in 3 effect, involve rebuttal testimony, or are we still in that 4 preliminary stage?
5 JUDGE KELLEY: I think we are getting it on f i
6 the record just to establish what -- frankly, we haven't ;
7 debated whether to swear Mr. Bassiouni or not. I hope the 8 question was whether he should be a witness at this point.
9 This is a preliminary threshold inquiry, if t
10 ' you want to call it that.
11 Mr. Eddleman, does it sound all right to you?
12! MR. EDDLEMAN: I have no objections, Judge.
k' 13 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay. Le t 's res ume .
14 BY MR. EDDLEMAN: (Continuing) h 15 [ Q Dr. Mileti, in your Answer 37, concerning 16 , facilitating informal notification, you talk about what 17l would be in your words quite possible on Line 7, and then 18 you speak of instruments you developed of this possibility 19 on line 15, do you not?
20 A (Witness Mileti) Yes, that is true.
21 Q Okay. And then you explain how you computed 22 the estimates that you made. Can you tell me what factors ,
i 23 led you to conclude the eighty percent rate that is given 24 l in Answer 38 on Line 4 for engaging in informal indirect Ace 4 m Reporten, Inc. i 25 notification under this testament? l l
l l I l I.
9559 16-13-JosWal 1 A Yes, that was my judgment about what would occur 4
( 2 if an attempt was made in emergency planning to recommend I
3 through EBS messages to the public, that they engage in what 4 we are calling informal notification.
]
d 5 And I base that judgment on my experience and f
6 familiarity with research about the important role of ;
I 7 emergency information during emergencies, and how it affects l 4 ,
1
- 8 what people do in response to emergencies. l I
2
^
9 Q So, are you saying that your experience indicates 1 i l 10 there is an eighty percent compliance rate with instructions ' ,
11 that are given in emergency preparedness information?
.l 12 A No, that is not what I said. I based it on my i
j () 13 knowledge about how people come to form perceptions about .
14 what is appropriate to do in emergencies based on the 15 j rezearch record I have seen about how people respond to i
l 16 , warnings or emergency information during emergencies. ,
I l 17 ' Q Okay. Mr. Joyner, in Question and Answer 39, on 18 page 41, you are discussing the initial EBS messages for ,
i 19 broadcast in the event of a nighttime emergency.
i 20 Can you tell us what instruction concerning '
l 21 informal notification, or notify your neighbors is not ;
22 included in those messages? .,
23 A (Witness Joyner) At the present time, Mr. ;
l I
( (~} 24 Eddleman, there is nothing included in the draft EBS -
ra sr .w l 25 messages. We think it is a good idea, and we plan to
16-14-Jo3Wal 9560 1 include it in our next revision to the Shearon Harris
- 4 i 2 Plant. I I
3 Q Okay. You don't have an exact language or 4 anything. You are just planning to do something along 5 the lines that Dr. Mileti has suggested, is that right?
i I
6 A That is correct. i 7 Q I think you gentlemen can find in the last part 81 of this contention a similar suggestion from me, so I l
9 certainly think that you should do anything you can to 10 , improve the notification.
11 Let me see here. Mr. Joyner, again, concernin g 12 ; your summary of your testimony in response to Question 41,
(> ,
\_J 13 ! on page 42, starting about three lines down from the top, a
14 1 you give an answer there. Do you have that before you?
l 15 A Yes, I do.
4 e
16 0 Okay. Now, you talk about the times for completion 17 ;l of mobile alerting, ranging from approximately twenty minutes II 18 ' to forty-five minutes, and say that many households will be 19 i covered by the mobile alerting system within fifteen i
20 minutes.
21 Now, did you make any estimate of how many of 22 those households would be ones that had not been alerted ,
23 j by the sirers?
g 24 A No, we didn't.
wMe c.ponen. inc. !
End 16.
MS folc.
9561
@im 17-1 Q Gentlemen, I would like to ask one other question.
j 2
How close to 100 percent do you have to be in this 15-minute notification for you all to believe that it is essentially 3
4 100 percent?
MR. ROCHLIS: I am going to object to that 5
question.
6 MR. EDDLEMAN: I will withdraw the question.
7 I have no further questions.
8 JUDGE KELLEY: Do FEMA and the NRC Staff propose 9
10 to separately question, or what do you have in mind?
I MR. ROCHLIS: We didn't have any questions for jj! i 12 the applicant's witnesses at this time.
JUDGE KELLEY: All right.
O V
13 jg' BOARD EXAMINATION 15 BY JUDGE CARPENTER:
$DEX 16 Q I have just a few questions.
j7 Mr. Keast, on page 10 of your prefiled testimony 18 Mr. Eddleman was asking you about line 21, which says that j9 the field measurements agree within about 0.9 dB. Am I 20 correct in interpreting that as essentially a bias or a 21, constant difference?
22 A (Witness Keast) Yes.
Q What is the algebraic sign of the difference?
23 A It is negative. The model is low compared to the 24 Ace-F, } Repo,ters, Inc.
25 field measurements on average by just under 9/10ths of a
. - _ . _ - _ - - - - _ _ . _ - _ - . = . - . - _ - . - - -
i
! 9562
- 4
.Sim 17-2 decibel.
1
() 2 Q You didn't feel it desirable to improve the 3 modal by a whole 0.9 decibels?
u 4 A I don't know. I think that is pretty good i
5 considering the state of the art. . .
6 -
Q Thank you.
7 I wish my next question could be as straight-8 forward. We have Applicant's Exhibit 46, which as I under-9 stand, it shows contours of maximum levels of acoustic energy 10 in dB; is that correct?
11 A That is correct. .
12 O I believe I understood from the questioning
() 13 that using your approach the pertinent quantity is the ,
14 perceived noise, and most particularly the EPNdB, and you 15 went through a calculation with Mr. Eddleman in which you 16 went from the kinds of numerical values that are on Applicant' a 17 Exhibit 46 to get to an EPNdB. Can you tell me where I ;
1 18 can go so that I can follow that? I 19 A Okay. The procedure that I followed is 20 described in the book "The Effects of Noise on Man? by- '
21 Karl Kryter, which is referenced in the testimony.
22 Let me briefly describe what is involved there.
23 Q Let me focus the question a little more. Can 24 you tell me the maximum level of acoustic energy as per this t m s( h hemm. inc 25 exhibit that would correspond to a 50 percent probability
9563 Sim 17-3 1
of arousal as per the Figure 2 in Lukas that you referred
(_, ) 2 to? I am trying to get some feel for the forest and get 3 away from the leaves for the moment.
4 A Hold on just a second.
(Pause.)
5l l
6l If we work backwards and start from Figure 2 in l
i 7l Lukas, and I am just going to eye ball this because my 8
intent is to show the process and not the specific numbers, 9 but a 50 percent probability of awakening one person, I
l 10; according to the graph in Lukas, occurs at an EPNdB of 110 3
11l dB. Do you agree with that from the curve?
I 12 O I would say 110 ---
f'! 13 -
A Well, just for starting.
w/
14, Q That is fine.
15' A Now the problem is how do we get from that l
16! EPNdB back to the sound levels that are shown on Exhibit 46.
a 17! The first thing we do is to subtract the i
18! correction for the duration of the sound because we are l
19l converting back from something that is in effect the level l
20j times the time it lasts, and we are going to subtract the i
21 logerithm of the time it lasts, and that is 18 dB. So we 22 have 110 minus 18 which is 92 if I didn't make a mistake.
23 The next thing we are going to do is to subtract 24 what is called in Kryter an onset correction, and that Ac.-Fha n. port.rs, r,x.
25' varies, depending upon how far we are above the background
. 9564 I
Sim 17-4 I noise, from zero to 4 dB in this case, and let's just call l 2 it 4 dB. So that gives us 88.
- 3 Then we should subtract what is called a i 4 tone correction. The tone correction is a means of
! l
} 5 correcting for the fact that people are more sensitive to
, 6 tonal sounds than they are to broad band sounds, and that
! 7 is 10 dB. So we get down to 78.
8 Then we need to adjust for the fact that we ..
1 i 9 are really integrating over the peak of a sound that I
10 increases and then decreases, and that amounts to about 5 dB.
,i 1
l II And that get us down to 73 dB if my arithmetic is correct,
. t 12 and that 73 dB number is the number which is most comparable
() 13 to what you would see on Exhibit 46.
i
{
I4 Q But then if I move that number into the house, ,
15 would it be correct to add something of the order of 26 i
16 dB to account for the attenuation?
i !
! 17 A Good point. I forgot that item. It is 73 dB 18 in the house, which caa be anywhere from 85 da to 73 plus
] l 19 30, whatever that is, 103 outside. !
i !
i 20 Q Well, for the case of a house with air !
i 21 conditioning and the windows closed, and specifically with l l 22 the windows closed, isn't it true that that correction would :
23 be approximately 26 or 27 dB7
( 24 A Let's use 26 in the absence of storm windows,
%- w see.
25 yes, sir.
I l
l l
9565 Bim 17-5 1 So we come to 99 dB of maximum sound level as per O 2 Applicant's Exhibit 46 corresponding to a 50 percent 3 probability of arousal as per Lukas' estimate.
4 A The probability of arousal of one person.
'5 Q Yes, I understand that.
6 A Now allowing, and let's assume I haven' t 7 made any mistakes in my arithmetic here in doing this, 8 the probability of arousing one out of two people in that 9 house would be 75 percent, and the probability of arousing --
10 assuming there are two people in the house -- and the 11 probability of arousing one out of three people in that house ,
12 -
assuming there were three people in the house, would be
() 13 87.5 percent.
14 O Thank you. We haven't had 5he testimony by 15 the FEMA witnesses introduced yet and we haven' t cross-16 examined them yet. Have you read that testimony?
17 A You are asking me, sir?
18 Q Yes.
19 A Yes, I have.
20 Q Do I get the correct impression .that your 21 estimate of the propensity to be aroused is considerably 22 less than theirs? If I ask myself in looking at their 23 information, the same sort of thing, what maxinum sound 24 level corresponds to 50 percent arousal, I get something l me,.rven, lac.
25 like 85 dB, which remains to be confirmed when I talk to l
l
_______---___----___u
_ _ . . _ -. - . - - - . . - . . - - . . - _ . - . . . - ~ - . . . - , _ - - - _ ~ ~ .
9566 ;
Sim 17-6 1 them.
{O 2 3
So I get the impression that you are being j very conservative here in using this Lukas line.
A I don't think we are being conservative. I I
5 think we are being reasonable. But I am not so sure that 0 our estimates are that different than FEMA's estimates.
l 7
I think the most comparable number to our 8 estimate is in Dr. Nehnevajsa's testimony.
9 Now if you look in Dr. Kryter's testimony at f Q 1
10 j Figure 9A on page 30.
II A Yes.
12 Q As I look at that I think I see the same Lukas 13 data that is shown in Figure 2 that you were discussing I4 with Mr. Eddleman reproduced here pretty much, even 15 l
t including the three outlyers at the top.
16 A Yes, I believe they are the same data.
1 II
! Q Well, I wanted to see if you agreed with what I i II '
I took to be the notion of this testimony that perhaps the 1
l central tendency of that body of data was not the most appropriate since it doesn't correspond to the kind of 21 j noises that sirens make, and that it was primarily the 22 l transmission line noise which was most appropriate?
23 !
A Well, I think a number of things should be j 24 pointed out here.
n., m. inc.
25 First of all, what -- -
-.__,.---...c._ z-__. -. ,m. , _ . - . - _ , . . . , ~ , ,. _-.,_m., --._____.,.,.,,,_._,.,--.,_,,,v . . _ _ , , - . . ~ . _ _ - _ , . . . , . -
4 9567 I Sim 17-7^ j Q It makes a difference of some 10 dB.
y A What we see on Figure 9A in Dr. Kryter's
! 3 testimony is basically the Lukas raw data, but it has been i ,
4 converted to a different sound exposure scale. Notice the bottom scale, the abscissa on that graph is labeled l
'S s
6 SEL, single event level. So the dats have been shifted, if
~
7 you will, relative to what we used, which is EPNdB.
8 5 I think rather than using that, it is more
. s 9 useful to look at the results of FEMA's testimony in terms
. N , .
i jo of perople awakened and compare chose results to our 11 testimony in terms of people awakened. And th'ose results 3.[ are in Dr. Nehnevajsa's testimony.
O 8ue becx were i= 1 ox1=9 e the 9rimerv a e^
- 13 o
.s..
, '14 base in terms of arousability, I thought their testimony
! .. 15 that all that data is not really on the subject that we are 16 discussing, which is arousability by sirens which have a 1
l s j7 particular frequency, which must of this data just doesn' t J
18 have application to siren noises as far as I can tell.
f ,
19 Well, I am asserting when really I am asking l .* 20 you that question of whether you think it is reasonable to reject some of that data?
1 21 ]
22 A ,I think it is reasonable to reje t it. You 23 will recall that I rejected that point that was most like 1
24 sirens, which is the one in the upper-lef'-hand corner here.
- w. tnc.
s25 The thrust of Dr. Kryter's testimony, as I
, i %
\ n i kI ,
i
_ . . w .- . _ _ _ - ____._L.._-..__-..___.- _.
956B;.
Sim 17-8 j read it, is to say that if the curves shown in another O 2 aocu e=t, whica we a ve =oe vrevice 17 ai ce ea aere- ~aica .
3 is NUREG CR-2654, if that data had been used, then in his 4 judgment our results would have been very conservative. I believe that is why he has included his Figure 9A here and i 5 6
the discussion that goes with it.
We.did not, however, use that curve from 7
8 NUREG 0654. We used the data from Lukas before anybody 9
attempted to convert it from EPNdB to SEL.
10 MS. RIDGWAY: Mr. Keast, you just say that 11 you did not use the figure NUREG 0654, 12 WITNESS KEAST: 2654.
O is
"" "' "^' 'a""x v "-
j4 BY JUDGE CARPENTER:
15 Q Well, is the line that is labeled "NUREG CR-2654" 16 on Figure 9A of Dr. Kryter's testimony different than the 37 line that is indicated in Figure 2 of the Lukas report?
A I believe it is the same line.
18 j9 Q So I thought you did use that line?
20 A No. What we did not use is the transposition 21 which was necessary to take Lukas' data in EPNdB and turn i
22 them into SEL. That transposition ---
23 Q That is abundantly clear.
A Yes, that transposition is ---
hporews, 25 0 You are on a different scale.
! I l ._._._ . . . . . .-- .-- _ _ , , -~--
9569 Sim 17-9 A Yes.
1
( Q You have gone to the EPNdB scale instead of the SEL scale. The notion is:what is the most appropriate line, and Dr. Kryter seems to argue that the upper line in Figure 9A, or in fact a line somewhat higher than that, would be the most appropriate for sirens.
A Well, I will accept his judgment on that matter.
7
, He is an eminent in this; field, and assuming that is the 8
case, then he is saying that our estimate is conservative.
9 g Q In NRC proceedings we frequently hear the jj word " conservative." I must admit sometimes its use means non-realistic, and what I am striving for here is the most realistic estimate of the sound energy available and the probable response of the people. I think by sub-stantially underestimating it we may make an error in the direction of overestimating the number of people who are not aroused. So it is not conservative in that direction.
, A Okay. Well, I realize this is confusing, but g I think the significant point is that the number I have ended 20 up with, which is 69 percent-plus 3 percent which is 72 g percent is most comparable to the number that FEMA has g testified to one of their tables, which is 71.5 percent.
g Now there is a difference in methodology that i
l 24 we both use in getting from one to the other, and I believe our methodology is consistent as we have applied it and
..-m - , - _ _ _ __ __ . _ , . , , . . _ . , . , , ,, . . . .- _
9570 Sim 17-10 defensible and reasonable as we applied it. I thinktthe 1
same is probably true of what FEMA has done. But it is just that if we were to flip methods in the middle, and if we were to go half way EPNdB and then flip over to this SEL curve, we would have been excessively conservative. I do not believe that we are excessively conservative at this time.
Q No, I was really asking the question from the other point of view of whether you haven't been excessively conservative by including all these experimental results for noises that are not like sirens? You threw cut the one that 10 you say is the clcsest to the siren hoise which woke everybody up.
A Well, the reason I threw it out is because O it is an outlyer, but I think the thrust of what Lukas is saying is that for a wide variety of sounds, many different transportation noises and tonal sounds, which I threw out, other kinds of artificial sounds, like shaped bands of random noise, which I did not throw out, for a wide variety of noises there is a reasonably consistent relationship between the sound exposure and the percentage awakened.
That relationship is dependent upon the spectral distribution of the sounds, and that spectral distribution is handled through either the EPNdB coincept, the way we did it, or alternatively through the A-weighting, "W' concept the way Dr. Kryter has done it.
25 i
l
9571 DShn 17-11 1 Q Thank you. This contention speaks specifically 2 to summer nighttime conditions. I think I would be remiss 3 if I didn' t ask you the. question, do you see in wintertime, 4 for example, a condition in which arousal frequency would be 5 less? Is this truely a limiting condition for the situation 6 that is postulated here?
7 A I think it is probably pretty close to it. Of 8 course, we haven't examined the limiting condition, but what i
9 you would lose in the winter is that fraction of those houses 10 with their windows open, which is approximately a third of Il those houses.
12 What you would gain is the fact that people will
() 13 not be' running their air conditioners, and most specifically 14 their window air conditioner in the bedroom, which is the 15 limiting situation here, because. that is where the highest 16 background level occurs.
17 So if this is not the worst case situation, I 18 suspect that it is very close to the worst case situation 19 as far as sleep awakening is concerned.
end Sim 20 Suo fols 21 .
22 23 24
. /T hFyj Reporters, Inc.
25 l
\ - - _ . . - - -__-.-- - _ - -.-. .
9572 i
- SueW1 Q One last item, Mr. Keast. We admitted 2 Applicants' Exhibit 47 for the limited purposes (a) that 3 it shows the siren designators or numbers more clearly, and 4 one can see the topography a little more clearly. So, I 5 started using it that way because Applicants' Exhibit 46 6 was mysterious because I couldn't read the numbers designat-7 ing the sirens.
8 So, I began to compare the two to look and 9 see where the six added sirens had been put. And I would 10 like to get your help for a minute.
11 If you look at Applicants' Exhibit 46 --
12 A (Witness Keast) Go ahead, sir.
13 Q If you go northeast from the plant about five 14 miles, you come to Siren Number 34. l 15 Do you see that, sir? l 16 A Yes , I do . ,
17 Q And just to the north, northeast of that is !
i 18 Siren 31.
- 19 A Yes, I see that.
20 0 And if you focus on a position halfway between 21 34 and 31, and then go roughly a mile east you come to a 22 siren that is close to a lot of houses, but I can't read the -
23 number of that siren, the designator.
24 A lt's a letter.
m-r noonen, Inc.
25 Q It's a letter?
9573
- 18-2-SueW1 A The six new sirens are designated by letters.
2 And the letters, as I recall, are A, B,C. And then some 3 of them are like X, Y, Z.
4 But the particular one that you are referring 5 to is Letter C. And that is indeed one of the new sirens ,
6 that is being added.
7 Q And then I turn to Applicants' Exhibit 47, I 8 look in that same area, orienting myself by Siren 34 and 9 Siren 31, and I go a few miles east and I don't find a 10 siren. In fact, I find a stippled area which tells me
- 11 it's a region outside the 60 dBC coverage.
i l 12 So, the question comes to my mind which j
() 13 exhibit to believe.
14 A Okay. I think Exhibit 47 is part of the i 15 study that was prepared that determined the need for these ,
16 six additional sirens.
, 17 And as a result of that study, it was decided i I
l that an additional siren would be installed at the location 18 k
, 19 labeled C on both exhibits.
20 Q Well, it's dated 10/1/85. I realize you ;
21 didn't have anything to do with the preparation of Exhibit 22 47 so you can't really speak to it. ,
23 But I'm just trying to find out --
24 A My understanding is that the siren is to be Repo,te,s, Inc.
25 installed but has not yet been installed.
l
._ . . . _ , _ . , . . _ - - . .._. ,_ -._ _ . . . . _ _ . _ . . . ~ . . . . - _ . . . _ . . . . _ . , _ _ _ . _ _ , _ , , _ . . _
I l
9574
- 18-3-SueW1 MS. RIDGWAY: That's correct. And the contours 2 for that new siren are not shown on Exhibit 47, although 3 the location of the -- the proposed location of the siren 4 is indicated.
5 JUDGE CARPENTER: Well, if I take that to 6 be --
7 MS. RIDGWAY: Judge Carpenter, if you look 8 perhaps down in the lower left hand corner of Applicants' 9 Exhibit 47, it indicates the signal that is used to show 10 where the new proposed sirens will go. And if you look, 11 for example, in Region C where you were indicating you will 12 see that kind of a mark with a C beside it.
13 But the contours are not drawn for that proposed!
14 siren.
15 JUDGE CARPENTER: Yes. I guess what was con- j 16 fusing me, if you look over close to the Harris Plant area l 17 of Exhibit 47, you see Siren Number 28. That's a proposed j i
18 siren?
19 MS. RIDGWAY: No. That's not. That is a --
20 that siren is already there.
21 JUDGE CARPENTER: Well, that --
22 MS. RIDGWAY: It is, I think, the large ones .
23 with the letters that are the new ones I believe.
24 JUDGE CARPENTER: Well, if I turn -- I think noson ws.inc.
25 what you are telling me is that Exhibit 47 doesn't show
9575
- 18-4-SueW1 any of the proposed sirens.
O 2 MS. RIDGWAY: My understanding is that it 3 shows the locations of all the proposed sirens but it does 4 not show the contours for those sirens.
5 On the other hand, 46 shows both the' proposed 6 locations as well as the contours for daytime -- excuse me, 7 for swnmer nighttime conditions.
8 JUDGE CARPENTER: So, 46 does have the addi-9 tional siren'3?
10 MS. RIDGWAY: Except for one. Mr. Keast can 11 clarify that.
12 i WITNESS KEAST: Yes. It has six of the proposed 13 sirens. The one that does not appear on Exhibit 46 is the 14 one that is labeled U on Exhibit 47 which is in the lower 15 right hand corner. l 4
16 And that one was not included in our study, i
17 because it was unclear at that time what its specific i 18 location would be. l 19 BY JUDGE CARPENTER: (Continuing) l 20 Q Mr. Keast, just to wrap this up, if you would 21 look at the area of the plant on Exhibit 47, it looks to me 22 like Siren Number 40 is very close to the -- to being right .
23 at the plant.
24 A Yes, sir, I agree.
nonen, Inc.
25 0 And if you go northeast from Siren 40 about I
l i
9576
\
- #18-5-SueW1 two miles, you come to Siren 28.
1 g
U1 2 A Yes, sir.
3 Q And so if you look at the contours of sound 4 intensity there is a considerable overldp, et cetera. They i 5 sort of look like almost on top of each other.
- 6 A Yes.
t 4
7 0 When I looked at Exhibit 46 and looked at the 8 plant area -- are you'looking at 46 now?
I 9 A Yes, I am.
I 10 Q I didn't see that second siren up there to j 11 the northeast.
12 A Well, allowing for the poor legibility of l () 13 our Exhibit 46, I believe that both of those sirens are ;
14 there.
15 The one which is Siren 40 is just about an inch I 16 to the northwest of our label Shearon-Harris -- }
I
, 17 Q Oh.
l j 18 A -- and it is a funny little tail off to one 19 side. And pointing towards the label as a matter of fact.
i 20 And the one that is labeled Siren 28 is again 1
i 21 at the intersection of three roads a mile or so to the
- 22 northeast of the plant.
! 23 Q Thank you very much for solving that riddle i
I 24 for me.
neoo,wn, Inc.
25 (Laughter.)
r 1
9577 l
- SueW l fir. Joyner, Page 24, your answer to Question 24, 2 you say that three minute activations will be interrupted 3 only by intervals of approximately thirty seconds in which 4 the sirens are reactivated.
5 Do the sirens fatigue in some way? What happens 6 in the thirty seconds?
7 What does reactivation mean?
8 A (Witness Joyner) Well, the sirens, sir, will ,
i 9 sound for unr e minutes. And the timer cuts it of f and then i i
10 what you've got to do to reactivate that siren is you've l II i got to punch the in-code back into the in-coder in order 12 for it to sound for an additional three minutes.
i\' )
13 So, during each one of those thirty second !
Id periods you have to put the new code -- you have to put the 15 activation code back in in order to sound it for four 16 consecutive periods of time.
17I (Witness Keast) It's like those things in 18 motel bathrooms, that you turn them on and they run for 19 a while and turn themselves off.
t 20 Well, different witnesses have assumed dif-0 l l
2I ferent patterns of activation of the sirens. Is it clearly l l
22 established now what the pattern will be? i i
1 23 A (Witness Joyner) Well -- l 24 Q Is it in the plan someplace now?
e4 6 Reorurs, im. .
25 A No, sir. The plan does not specify how many
9578
- 18-7-SueW 1 times the siren will be sounded. The plan will be amended 2 to reflect exactly what we have in the testimony here, sir.
3 Q Thank you. The testimony didn't tell me that 4 previously.
5 And now I would like to ask a few questions i 6 of Dr. Mileti, and I apologize because I cannot formulate 7 the questions in a brief and concise manner, so I'm going 8 to ramble a little bit.
9 Dr. Mileti, in making your estimates on the l l
10 probability of people being alerted either directly or l
l 11 through the subsequent informal alerting response, do you l 12 assume that that probability is uniformly distributed all !
13 over the Harris EPZ? -
- i 14 A (Witness Mileti) I beg your pardon. I'm l 1
15 not sure I understand your question. j 16 Q Let me go at it from the inverse. If the I
17 probability of being aroused depends on the location of 18 the particular house with respect to distance from the i 19 siren, so as one goes further away from the siren then the ,
20 probability of being -- of somebody in that house being !
7 i
- 21 alerted decreases. l I
, 22 Is that a fair statement? .
I 23 A I think you may be asking a question about l
24 the probability of the siren alerting them.
m-F Repows, Inc.
l 25 Q Yes.
l 1
9579
- 18-8-SueW1 A And I don't have any expertise on which to 70 J 2 offer a judgment about that. The probability of them being 3 alerted informally, that is from other people in some way, 4 my estimates were for the whole EPZ and didn't take into 5 account sub-zones in any way.
6 Q Well, that's the question I'm trying to get 7 at. Would you accept my question that you declined to answer l l
8 as a premise, the further away you are from the siren, the j 9 lower the acoustical energy, the lower the probability of i
10 being aroused?
11 A That certainly makes sense to me, even though 12 t I have no expertise at all to comment on it but it makes
('N t
_) 13 sense. '
14 i O Okay. I warn you, I'm trying to use common sense here.
15 l 16 (Laughter.)
I 17 i What I'm curious about, if we look at the 18 Applicants' Exhibit 46, and w- .out identifying it as being 19 unique or in any way remarkable, let's look at the area 20 that is roughly three miles east of the box that says Shearon-21 Harris site, over between Sirens 64 and 48-A --
22 A Yes, sir. l, l
23 Q I'm sorry. That's 62. It looked like a 64. !
l 24 It is 62 and 48-A.
=> .:momri, w.
l 25 A Yes, I see it. !
9580
- 18-9-SueM Q Do you see those? If you look in the region
\~' 2 between the contours that are a cross-hatched, as Mr.
l 3 Eddleman aptly describes them, like a railroad track, there '
4 are a fair number of houses in there.
5 And so I'm just taking that at random. There 6 is nothing unique about it. But, those are -- that is an 7 area where the probability of those people being aroused 8 is considerably less than that for those people who are l 9j closer to a siren. l
! l 10 ! So, what I wanted to ask was, is it fair to 11 5 use a constant probability that my neighbor might alert 12 me if I live in such an area where many of my neighbors will
/~n !
()
13 1 not be aroused?
14 A Yes, I think it is. And the reason I think i
15 , some is because the constant probability was not simply i
16 based on whether your neighbor woke you up, but would also 17' include relatives and friends, et cetera that might wake 18 you up.
19 And there is a logic that implies if we went 20 into the specifics of it, for example, that if these people '
21 thought for some reacon they didn't have as high a probability 22 I of being alerted and they had neighbors or friends that '
23 lived closer to a siren, they may be more inclined to call g 24 them up. l
=JeMa moners, ix.
l 25 If the probability of people in this area that I i
l 1
9581 l l
l
- 18-10-SueM you have pointed to from being alerted formally, that is 2 woken up by the sirens is lower, the probability of their i 3 neighbor waking them up would have to be lower. But I don't 4 think the probability of them getting informal notification 5 is necessarily lower.
6 Q In your review of the research of this informal 7 alerting process, was the data collected in a way so that 8
you can see what the relative contribution of alerting a 9 relatives is to alerting neighbors?
l 10 Once again, common sense, if I heard the stren ,
1 and I look around and I know my neighbor's telephone number, 11 l 12 I'm likely to call him up. That seems clear to me how the (m) , _ _ _ 13 initial arousal could propagate.
14 i But to postulate some distribution of blood-i 15 j lines around so that most people that have relatives that i
16; l are in the EPZ wculd seem to me to be difficult. Do you 17 think this calling relatives is a big contributor to that?
18 A Yes, I do. I don't recall offhand what the 19 different percentages might be.
20 But informal notification runs along lines of i
l 21 intimates, who you are close to. And you could be close to 22 a neighbor, you could be close to a relative. People tend j i
23 to call relatives during emergencies. l 24 Q So I take it that the sort of bottom line !
N-F . R worurt,fm.
25 answer to my concern and question is that you don't think
i j 9582 i #18-11-SueF these areas which are unavoidable of less than maximum sound i
i 2 intensity should be viewed as areas that need to be thought
, 3 about as being different from those areas closer to the t
4 sirens? -
l 5 A I don't believe that those people would have ;
l 6 less of a chance of finding out that the emergency was l
7 going on.
8 0 Leaving that -- thank you, Dr. Mileti. I am 9 surprised at the answer. I would have guessed differently, i
i l 1 10 but I'm not a sociologist. l 1 I i
i 11 Mr. Joyner, you've --
i 12 A (Witness Joyner) Yes, sir. i ,
f
() 13 0 -- testified that the route alerting would 14 alert many people in the first fifteen minutes but wouldn't 15 be completed perhaps in some areas up to forty-five minutes. ;
Have you looked to see what routes would be !
) 16
! l i 17 covered in fifteen minutes? ;
i p3 A Yes, sir, we have. Basically, we can, somewher I
- 19 in the neighborhood of thirty to forty percent of the people 2
20 in the EPZ could be notified within that fifteen minutes, i
21 because the route alerting within the three primary areas j i I i 22 are Apex, Fmpay-Varina and Holly Springs, and that's where !,
23 the majority of your people live at.
1 24 And if you will look into the tables that you La ==nm. ire. ,
l 25 will be given from the plan, you will see the response time !
l l
9583 l
- 18-12-SueN 1 that the people are in that particular areas. Now, in the
( ;
2 rural areas it will take longer because the road miles is 3 longer.
4 Q But isn't it true that in locating the sirens, 5 quite properly, most of the sirens are located in these 6 population centers, so perhaps it's the rural peopig despite 7 Dr. Mileti's views that differ from mine, that might need the 8 special alerting?
9 A well, sir, we certainly are not slighting the rural people as far as special alerting. It's just as a >
10 l 11 l matter of being able to respond and get actual emergency i
12 vehicles at the location where we could actually run the T's. 1
(_) 13 ' routes in that period of time. '
14 So, it just so happens in running our particular' 15 l routes that we do alert a good percentage based in the urban 16 l areas rather than the rural areas. But we do the best wo 17 ' can with the resources we have.
18 For instance, in Harnett County I think if you '
19 l will look when you get these tables out of the plan, it takes i
20 roughly fifteen minutes for the emergency services agency, 21 in this case, the Sherif f's Department to respond to that !
l 22 particular rural area in Harnett County. So, in that 1, l
23 particular case there is no way we could notify anyone i 24 I within that fifteen minutes on route alerting.
n-Fedgtoorters, Inc.
25 JUDGE CARPENTER: I guess I will stop there. l l
I I
l 9584 ,
i
- 18-13-SueW1 Thank you, Mr. Joyner. l O
J l
2 JUDGE KELLEY: I have a few questions I think j i
3 for each of you. l 4 BOARD EXAMINATION 5 BY JUDGE KELLEY:
INDEX 6 Q Mr. Kaast, in your study when you were giving l l
7 the various parameters in Attachment 4, I was just surprised 8 at the 71 degree Fahrenheit modal value. ,
9 And is modal value sort of the average l 10 temperature at night?
I !
11 A (Witness Kaast) Well, it's very close to it, i I ;
yes. It's the most common. ,
12 l
() 13 Q And what time of year exactly was that?
14 A This is 4 o' clock in the morning in July. l l
15 Q In July? '
16 A I'm sorry. 4 o' clock in the morning in July.
i l l'7 Q The temperature must drop a lot. I just l i ,
19 thought, why have an air conditioner if it goes to 71. I i l
l 19 just wondered about the number. ;
I 20 A Well, I'm sure it's colder in the middle of the l 21 night than it is in the daytime. But it's also pretty muggy 22 and sometimes the house stores up heat. .
23 I think the use of that figure is, first of all, 2d not critical to our calculations but, secondly, you know, nooo,w,s. Ina.
25 representative of the area at night based on the data that i
1 9585
- 18-14-SueW1 we've had.
2 Q Okay. I wanted to ask you under some -- in !
3 connection with some questioning with Mr. Eddleman, I 4 think the immediate question was people waking up and going 5 back to sleep. I think you said that you assumed that if 6 the person hears the siren they will get up.
7 And your premise I think was the public educa-a tion program would see to it that people knew what the siren 9 meant. And I guess I'm skeptical that a hundred percent 10 would know.
11 But, be that as it may, my question is, you in i 12 , that same connection, spoke of the fact that the siren would
() 13 be sounded for ten minutes, fifteen minutes. Is it a three l 14 minute blast in succession with some breaks in between?
15 A Yes. Our calculation assumed ten minutes, f END #18 16 l
Jos folws i 17 l
i 18 i 19 ,
1 20 21 22 23 ceoorms, s .
25
9586 l
- 19-1-JoeW1 Q Okay. I would assume that the people who wake
() 2 up would fall into categories, those who hear the first 3 blast and those who wake up in the middle blast and those 4 who wake up right towards the end.
5 Do you have any break out of percentages 6 there? ,
7 A No, I do not. I have not broken it out. But a I think your assumption is a valid assumption. People will 9 continue to wake up the longer this siren operation-persists.
10 0 The heavier the sleeper the more likely they l 11 will at least sleep until the last blast or something like j i
l 12 l that as opposed to waking up immediately? ;
() 13 A Yeah. I think it's common experience that we I
14 have all had, that while we are sleeping some sound begins l l
15 to intrude on us and it takes a while for us to actually
- 16 be awakened by that sound. ;
i 17 Q But if you were a person that was sleeping 18 heavily and only woke up in the last thirty seconds of the j 19 last blast, might you not think it's a fire in Apex and 4 l
20 go back to sleep?
21 A That's possible. On the other hand, at that 22 point there might be enough other stuff going on that your ,
23 curiosity would be aroused.
24 Q Also, in some of the earlier questioning, do we ,=,.. w.
25 you recall earlier in the day where Mr. Eddleman had an
_ . _ . ~ _ . , _ . - _ _ . . . _ _ . - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ . . _ _ . _ - _ _ _ . . _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ . _
9587
- 19-2-JoeW I example involving the flood reaching the door, and I think 2 you were talking about the effect of 75 dB on the average 3 or a band somewhere in that range.
4 And the part that I didn't understand was that 5 I believe I heard you say that although some would hear less 6 than 75, that would be offset by those who hear more than t
i 7 75. And that may not be an accurate paraphrase. '
}
8 But I was trying to picture that and what came l
9 into my layman's mind was the person in the house who got 10 78 or 79, he got three or four more than he needed perhaps 11 I to wake up, but that doesn't do any good in the house that 12 l only got 72, does it?
( 13 l How does that of fset work? Or, am I misquot-14 l ing you?
15 A Okay. What we are really saying is that the 16 l person who got 79 -- we are averaging over a large number of l
17l people now -- has a greater probability of being awakened I
18 than the person who got 75. And the person who got 75 has '
19 l a greater probability of being awakened than the person who 20 ! got 72. l l
1 21 So, we are really not talking about the response' 22 of a particular person but we are talking about the responses,i 23 of a number of people averaged over all those people.
A 24 0 Thank you. Dr. Mileti, I believe in your wsm neomn. w. l l
25 testimony you say that the broadcast message, the standard >
I l
9588
- 19-3-JoeW 1 message to be used in the event of an emergency asks people O 2 to contact friends and relatives; is that right?
3 A. (Witness Mileti) I don't recollect the 4 specific wording, but my intent was to suggest that it would 5 ask them to engage in informal notification.
6 0 Yeah.
1 A But I'm sure I did use those words.
7l f O I remember on an answer that was just yes, and 3,
9 I can't remember the question.
10 ! A I believe it may have said if your neighbors aren't awake, wake them or something along those lines.
11 f t
12 j Q Right. Okay. I'm looking at Page 41 toward 13 the top, starting with Line 4 and then on Line 7 your answer 14 is yes.
15 l So, that's the thrust of it. My question 16 { relates to another part of the plan. I believe there was !
b f 17 a reference to the plan wherein it discouraged people from l 18 using t)4 telephone.
19 Is that correct? Maybe Mr. Joyner can speak 20 to that.
i 21 A (Witness Joyner) Sir, I believe that was 22 mentioned in the brochure. .
23 Q Aren't these inconsistent, the brochure l 24 directive to not use the phone and the EDS message to use w nose,wes, one.
l 25 the phone?
I !
L
9589
- 19-4-JoeW l A (Witness Mileti) I don't think they are in-
- 2 consistent at all. And let me explain.
3 Q Okay.
4 A First of all, the EBS message would not direct 5 people to use the phone. Secondly, in the brochure it also 6 states words to the ef fect that if you hear something during 7 the emergency over the EBS station that's inconsistent with a what is in the brochure, ignore what's in the brochure, 9j thereby providing flexibility at the time to take advantage 10; l of deciding what's the best thing to do when the emergency i
11 ! actually occurs.
12 : O Let me just be clear, though. In the question r^ l (j 13 ; on Page 41, Line 4, "Will the initial EBS messages for 14 ! broadcast in the event of a nighttime emergency at Harris 15 ; include an instruction such as that discussed by. . . ," now 16 that cross-tcferences your earlier discussion.
17 And can you give us the thrust of your earlier 18 discussion? If it isn't call your neighbor, then what is 19 it? Or, call your relatives? What is the instruction?
20 MS. RIDGWAY: Mr. Chairman, I may be able to 21 l help here. That appears on Page 38 of the testimony. .
22 JUDGE KELLEY: Thank you. Line? .!
23 MS. RIDGWAY: That is Line 14. I 24 WITNESS MILETI: Yes. I believe the specific As-Fg Reporters, Inc.
25 words there are, "if your neighbors' house is dark, wake themj"
9590
- 19-5-JoeW 1 JUDGE KELLEY: It doesn't say use the phone.
O 2 BY JUDGE KELLEY: (Continuing) 3 Q And that's all you meant?
4 A No. Let me say a couple of things about that.
5 One, this is going to get people to call their relatives as 6 well. It is going to get them to think about people that 7 aren't awake that they might want to get in touch with, a And, second, no matter what might be said in 9 an emergency brochure or for that matter over the EBS 10 station, people are still going to use the phone in an 1
11 emergency. It's something that always happens.
l .
12 Pointing out that you may not want them to use i
O 13 i l
it a lot may keep scme phone messages down, but one thing t
i 14 that has always been the case is that phones get used in f 15 emergencies. -
16 Q Well, it still seems to be to be sort of in- !
i i
17 consistent. Either we want them to use the phone or we !
l 18 don't. I 19 If you really don't want them to use the phone, l
20 then you are saying that in this instruction, you are sug- !
i 21 gesting, look at your neighbors' house, will get people to j l
22 use their phones. In there a trade-off there? j 23 Do you think it's favorable? !
1 wc(_ ); m mes ine.
24 A I think what this message would do is going to 25 suggest to people to have them recollect if they hadn't
9591
- 19-6-JoeW 1 already thought about it, that some of their friends, be
'/ 2 they neighbors or relatives may not be awoken and need to 3 be alerted. And for some people, that may mean that they 4 would want to get in touch with them and they will use some 5 means to get in touch with them. Some subset of that 6 group will be to use the phone.
7 Q Isn't that the obvious way to do it unless j gj they are just next door? f l
9i A I think Jo, yes.
l 10 ; Q I'm just trying to understand here whether i
i 11 you want people to use the phone or you don't. If you are 12 trying to promote notification, why don't you just tell n
! ,) 13 I them, call up Aunt Tilly, or whoever.
14 i And if you don't want them to use the phone, 15 then why pass on this message at all?
16 t A (Witness Joyner) Your !!onor, that's an easy 17 one to fix. We can, on the next update to the brochure, I
18 we can certainly change the language slightly.
i The intent, of course, is to reduce the amount 19 l i
of traf fic so that emergency messages can go through. But 20 l 21 based on this information, I think we can get -- can convey 22 that by a little bit different language. ,j l
23 0 Are you very strongly reliant on the standard ;
i g 24 telephone system for amargency messages? l u.4m amon.n. ens. l' 25 A During the initial emergency, I would say yes.
I
9592
- 19-7-JoeW 1 But probably during this time, most of the emergency informa-2 tion would have already been transpired over the phone, the 3 key alert people would have been notified.
4 So, it's probably not as critical at this time 5 that the people being alerted, that they could not use the 6 telephone.
7 Q Okay. Dr. Mileti, the informal communication a mode to which you testified, recognizing that there are 9 here essentially three modes -- and there may be some other 10 minor ones, but the three main ones we have talked about, ,
11 l the sirens, the mobile alert and the informal phenomenon, i
12 do you think that informal, as a planner, as an energency O n!
e1-ner, do you ehink thee an informat ehenomenon such as l
14 you have described ought to be structured into the plan in i
15 j such a way that you are counting on that to accomplish ;
i ,
16 a certain amount of notification?
17 Or, do y ou think that you shot:ld look upon >
18 it as sort of a beneficent background effect that's there, l l !
it's nice to have, it's insurance but you are not going l 19' l i'
20' to really count on it?
t 21 Itow would you respond to that?
22 A (Witness Mileti) Well, I would respond in a ,
23 biased way. Recollect that I'm a sociologist and I, there-24 fore, think the topic of my discipline is important, w n.=,=,, w. l 25 I wouldn't even choose to call the phenomenon
19-8-Jo Wal 9593 1 informal. I think in general, the public in emergencies l I
(^)
~'
2 are a resource, and that emergency plans should rely on the 3 public as a resource rather than an entity that needs help, 4 and so I would like to see not only in this regard but in l
l 5 many other regards emergency planning in the future define 6 the public increasingly as a resource that can help with 7 emergency response, rather than an entity that needs to be 8! helped in order to respond well.
I 9 I So, I am of the opinion of what we call informal 10 notification, is important. It occurs in emergencies, a nd II ' rather than ignore that it does, we should take steps to 12 capitalize on it, and I think it can be counted on routinely I
V 13ll as part of emergency planni nJ, yes.
u I4 h Q But would that kind of thing -- I guess what 15 I am really getting at is what distinguishes, at least in 16 my mind, informal notification from the other two methods is that you can't really determine precisely what it is 17 [
18 going to do for you. You may be able to say I know that I 19 ; will wake up seventy percent of the people with my sirens.
20 And then you may have enough policemen and i
other notifiers, ao you can say further I can wake up the 21 l 22 other twenty-nine or tho other thirty porcent by route .
alert.
23l l @ 24 '
w.We nwon.<,, ene. ,
So, I am really home free, so I will just count on informal contacts as a backup. But if I am counting 25 l l
l
19-9-Jo W21 9594 1 on informal contacts for a major part of notification,
- x ,
( ) I k- 2 wouldn't this affect how many resources I put into sirens I 3 and mobile backup? !
t I
4 A I suppose it could have that effect, yes.
5 0 You think this is desirable? Or you think it l l
6 is acceptable ? It is a good idea?
7 A In my opinion, if you can wake up with devices 8l about seventy or seventy-two percent of the population, that 9l is enough to get the ef fervescence that you need in a local 10 community to have informal notification take over, and I i
11 t think you can count on that.
II However, you can always improve on a system, and
(~h
(_j' 13 l if the siren could be shown through whatever technologies 14 i they use to wake up a hundred percent of the people, that 15 is an improvement. I don't think that is necessary.
16 ' 0 But in your view if the sirens can wake up seventy 17 ; percen 4 that is all that is necessary?
le ' A In order to get informal notification going on, 19 yes, it defi nitely would go o n.
20 i Q And to wake up everybody oise?
21 f A I can't say that it would wake up overybody else, i
22 ! no. .
23 l Q Almost overybody elso?
A A good many mora in my estimate was, I believe,
-,jlg . 24 l ,
.... -a 25 i sixteen percent more. In the first fifteen minutes.
i I
l
19-10-Jo:W21 9595 l 1 Q Okay. Mr. Joyner, I would Ifke to just ask 2 you a few q6estions about the mobile alert system.
3 s When you marshaled your resources to carry out 4 the mobile alert, are you assuming some gross number of 5 people, or households, that you are going to have to wake l
}
6 up?
7 A (Witness Joyner) No, sir, not in that respect, t,
8 because what we are looking for is that within that forty-9 five minutes that everyone that was not waken during the l
10 original fif teen mirutes would be awaken by a route alerting 11 sys!.Em.
l V 12 ; We are not using our route alerting system as 13 a primary notifier, but we get an awful lot of mileage out l
14 ; of that by -- we have computed that we edo within that fif teen 15 l minute period notify, or at least warn up to thirty, forty, 16 fifty percent of the people because of the population areas.
I 17 Q In terms of the time it would take you to run 18 the routes and finish that process, would it really matter 19 to you;whether the sirens woke up sixty percent or seventy 20 , s ' per' ent or eighty percent of the people? .
- l 21 . A I would answer that in the affirmative; yes, it j 22 would. That we look to the sirens. We use our route alert ,
23 ing strictly as a backup supplemental systiem. It adds to, I I
24 it doesn't take the place of. l w n ,wn, inc 25 Q But how do you know. This is night now, and if
_s, i
+!
4
19-ll-JoeWal 9596 1 I am a highway patrolman, and I am going to run a certain i
- i
'/ 2 route, and I have been notified, and I go down the road, do l
? I -- if the lights are on, I just keep driving, is that 4 what happens?
5 A The procedure would be, especially at night, i
6 if they were going through an area, which they would be 7 doing, and sounding the sirens with their flashing lights, 8 they would see lights coming on, and they would know that 9 they had some sort of confirmation that the people are being i
10 j awaken by the siren.
i 11 ! Then they would probably, as a confirmation, do 12 - a backrun of that route. As they come back through that rm
()_
13 l i
route a second time, then they would definitely see the 14 l confirmation of how many people are, or have been notified.
il 15 j Q So, if I am runni rg my route, at least on the 16 l first run through, I won't stop anywhere, I will just go i
17 along with my sirens and lights.
18 A That is correct.
19 l Q And then if the initial big sirens had been 20 l Very ef fective -- in fact, most of the households are l
21 already awake, and they get up and start moving around, but 22 then when you come back, if there are a lot of houses that ,
23 are still dark, does he just give it a second pass, or does 24 he start stopping at houses and banging on doors?
W-Fg Reporters, Inc.
l l 25 A No, sir. That is a judgment factor on the one i
O
19-12-JocWal 9597 1 that is running the route, but I can assure you that if !
I 'l l
- ' 2 they saw houses coming on the second route, that they :
I 3 would stop. !
i 4 0 In computi rg your time intervals of twenty to I
l 5 forty-five minutes to complete the process, when you say, i i
I' 6 ' complete the process,' does that mean run the routes, or 7 does that mean in some manner ensure that everybody is i
8 actually awake?
9 A No, sir, that means to run the route. The time 10 ! that it takes for the individual that has to run that route l
11 ! to be able to get to his station, be a tie to pick up his 12 vehicle, and actually go through the first time.
,s
(_,/ 13 l The second time, a backrun route is not included i
14 in that time.
15 ,] Q Not in the forty-five?
16 ! l A That is correct. That would be a confirmation i
17 { run rather tha n --
i 18 Q I understand, yeah. Do you have any estimate 19 on the confirmation run -- I guess what I am thinking of 20 is this.
21 You make a run, and some houses are lit up and 22 some aren't, but you just make the run. Then you turn 23 around and come back on a confirmation run. Then it would 24 just depend. He might stop, and on a judgment call basis, ;
AmJ a Reorurs, lm.
25 he might stop some places and knock on the door, or whatever j l
t
19-13-Jo:Wal 9598 1 they needed to do.
I ;
'i
- 2 Do you have any estimate how long that process ;
i 3 might take? Don't know how many dark houses there were i 4 I assume?
I 5 A That is basically what it amounts to. Now, as i 1
I 6 he goes through the first time, of course, he will stop, ;
7 basically.
8 He will run his siren continuously going through 9 the area except for a short break, and if he runs across t
10 ! a house, say, in the first go through that is dark, more than i
11 ! likely he will stop at that particular house and try to sound i
12 : it as he goes through the area.
EllIl9. 13 j MS fois.
14 4 15 ,
a 16 :
I 17 l 18 l 6
19 20 l 21 22 ,
23 24 A -s c..conen, Inc.
25 l
9599 Sim 20-1 j Q Well, I think I misunderstood then. I thought
()
v 2 on the first go-through he was just going to go through and 3 run his siren and not stop.
4 A No, sir. They will stop as they go through, and 5-as they come to a house, if it is in a built-up area or an 6 urban area, they will stop as reasonably clo n to all houses 7 to sound their sirens and put out their JA sy=cem.
8 If they are in a rural area, as they go through i
9 that rural area for every house they come to, they will 10i basically stop and sound their sirens, and that is computed 11' within running the route.
12 Q When you computed running the route you said O
v 13 j
y u did include the stops?
ja! A Yes, sir.
15 O Does it mean that the Highway Patrolmen say --
16 well, of course, you wouldn't know exactly how many houses j7, would be dark except under actual conditions. I am sorry, 18 are y u saying that they stopped at every house?
j9 A In a rural area, yes, sir, they would probably I stop at every house. They have run these routes.
20 The 21 r utes were actually run and they were computed based on this 22 basis prior to the exercise, and they were actually confirmed 23 again during the exercise.
24 S basically every house in a rural area, and Ac rh Reporte,s, Inc.
25 we are talking about a daytime notification because that is
9600 Sim 20-2 what we did. At a night notification, if we see lights
(} already on in a house, then we would probably just go on by that house. So we probably could do it faster.
Q So on running at daytime under these test con-ditions earlier these routes could be run and the policemen could stop at every house long enough to bang on the door?
A Well, no, he wouldn't be doing that. He would 7
just stop in the vicinity of the house and make sure the 8
9 siren is sounding and he has a public address system that he 10 w uld put out a short message to tell the people to actually g turn on their radios and TVs.
12 Q But he would in going down these rural routes a a s a am use he would stop and do that?
I
(} 13 A Yes, sir.
g An a s all within -- well, a pretty short 15 16 time. You say 20 to 45 minutes. The marshalling time is 15 minutes or so, isn't it?
A In the case of Harnett County, yes, sir.
18 j9 Q So the route runs might be 25 or 30 minutes?
A That is correct.
< 20 g Q Including stops?
t A That is computed in. In fact, when the areas were 22 23 predesignated and assigned, it was to allow them to do just ;
24 that. So some areas are shorter than other areas, depending
""**"' [ on how many houses are on that particular route. t t
I i
9601 I
Sim 20-3 Q Do you know whether either all or virtually 2
all of the rural houses in the EPZ are on a road or fairly 3
close to it?
A Basically my understanding is that every road 5
where there is a house, it will be run by the route alerting, 6
and it is my understanding is that most all of the houses are 7
along the roads.
8 JUDGE KELLEY: Thank you, gentlemen.
9 BOARD EXAMINATION
[NDEZ 0 BY JUDGE CARPENTER:
11 Q Mr. Joyner, I just want to be clear. I took it 12 your response to Judge Kelley's question about encouraging O '3 geog 1e to use the te1eghones ehee you wou1d be feirty com-I#
fortable with essentially blockage of communication for some 15 15 to 30 minutes after the sirens were sounded, and you 16 don't think that is a time when other people would need to I7 get through?
18 A (Witness Joyner) Judge Carpenter, basically the 19 biggest time that emergencies would be using the telephones 20 would be prior to notification to the public when all of 21 the emergency agencies would be notified and the telephone 22 would probably be pretty heavily loaded at that time.
23 At the time that we are actually running the l 24 routes and the sirens are actaully sounding probably=it-
- hpomn, im 25 would not be that great. I don' t think when I made the
}
r
9602
'Sim 20-4 j suggestion in the brochure that we might be able to fix
() 2 it by changing the language, rather than say don't use 3 the telephone, it wasn't necessarily in my mind that we had 4 to encourage people to use the telephone. It was to leave 5 it an option to limit the time or length or the telephone 6 conversations.
7 But to answer your question directly, no, sir, 8 I don't believe that we would have any problem at all with 9 the telephones in that particular time.
10 JUDGE CARPENTER: Thank you.
11 JUDGE KELLEY: JJust a point about the Lukas 12 study. ..That has been the subject'of"some con 5iderable 13 discus ~sioncthis' afternoon and the Board'could.see some merit
(~)
14 in: including. thi's in' the record.
i 15 Does any party object to its inclusion in the 16 record?
17 MR. EDDLEMAN: I have no objection.
18 MS. RIDGWAY: Mr. Chairman, I would like to review i
l 19 that overnight and get back to you tomorrow on that.
20 JUDGE KELLEY:. Fine. We can take it up tomorrow 21 morning.
- . 22 Mr. Rochlis.
l l 23 MR. ROCHLIS: Ne have no objection at this time, f
24 but we would like for you to allow us an opportunity to review y s(" \)a.poewes. inc.
25 it.
9603 DGE KELLEY: Fine. Do we have the applicant's Jun 20-5 j f^ only copy?
(~)g 2 MS. RIDGWAY: No, Your Honor, we have one.
3 JUDGE KELLEY: Thank you.
4 okay. Well, let's just remember to raise it 5
in the morning.
6 That brings us I guess to redirect from 7
the applicants.
8 MS. RIDGWAY: I would prefer to defer that 9
until tomorrow morning as well, if the Board is agreeable.
JUDGE KELLEY: All right.
MR. ROCHLIS: I had one question that I would like to take up with Mr. Joyner at this time to
() clarify the situation in Harnett County. I don't think 14 it will take but a few minutes.
15 JUDGE KELLEY: Go ahead.
16 MR. ROCHLIS: You mentioned, Mr. Joyner, that it would take approximately 15 minutes to marshall the sheriff's resources in Harnett County to notify the people?
WITNESS JOYNER: The 15 minutes is actually i
for the sheriff's department to respond from their particular location to the area that they are required to 22 warn.
23 l The sheriff's department of course is in the l
24 "W '" City of Lillington, and I can't give you the exact location i
25
--. .-- ---.,--,.n,... , , - , __-,, . , - - - , , , , , - - . . . . _ , .
4 9604 i Sim 20Xh,1 of where that route is, but this has been computed by the
() 2 Harnett County Sheriff's Department and Emergency Management 3 Office, and this is what it says, that in case they had 4 an immediate notification, it would take that sheriff's car 5 with the siren to get to the area that they would have to 6 warn.
7 MR. ROCHLIS: Does that contemplate before the 8 sounding of the siren?
9 WITNESS JOYNER: Yes. In other words, the i
j 10 routes would not be run until the actual sirens sounded.
11 So it is a possibility. But now here again we worst case 12 our thing, and there is a possibility in the case here that
{} 13 if we knew, you know, when the sirens were going to sound 14 and we had that time, yes, they could be on site and we i 15 could do a better job.
16 But when we are talking about if we had an 17 immediate notification right now, then it would take 15 18 minutes. But if you play out a typical scenario and you 19 had a slow escalating situation, all of these people could 20 be in position and we could do a much better job than even 21 what we are talking about here in 30 or 40 percent.
22 MR. ROCHLIS: Thank'you.
23 JUDGE KELLEY: I would like to ask another 24 question along, not the same line, but you will recall Re, lac.
25 that Judge Carpenter had some questions basically for
, 9605 Sim 20 1 Dr. Mileti about the likelihood of people being aroused 2
who were in may I say outer band, and we were talking about
! 3 two particular areas. There were some houses which are out-side 70, or something like that, and it is not important
' 5 to be precise for purposes of my question.really is this.
6 If one were to assume that certain identifiable 7
- areas of housing that were on the outer edges of high volume 8
contours, if you were to assume, notwithstanding informal communication, that they are somewhat less likely to be 10 a
notified, would it be practical or desirable, in your view,
{ 11 to structure routes so as to go to those people first?
.I 12 WITNESS JOYNER: Yes, sir, I think that would O de e aeriaite o9tioa caee we wou1a eteot it we were e urea 14 that a group or a location would be not covered by the sirens, 15 or we had some doubt, and I am sure th&E county would definitel: r 16 structure their route alerting to have some sort of means I7 to be able to respond to that.
18 Hopefully when'we do the siren test, if U
we would;. find out that we have any voids, then we wil1- -
- 20 specifically;1ook.at those areas. Then if we-find that. .
21 we have those voids and if no sirens are put in, then we 22 will definitely either way. Our job is to protect the public, l 23 and we will definitely take that into consideration.
24 n JUDGE KELLEY: I am not suggesting a phone system, y %.
- l but I do wonder if you studied the area and you found some l
9605 gu.a 20 'vs 1 very limited number of truly isolated houses that you found I;s 2, out did have a telephone, could you set up a system for 3 phoning instead of trying to drive out there? I don't know 4 whether they exist, but ---
5 WITNESS JOYNER: That would be an option.
6 Probably in a situation like that, and of course we would 7 have to look at it, and I would hate to pull this off the 8 top of my head, but I would feel like that more than likely 9 we would like to add that to a route alerting system rather 10 than make an individual call to those houses.
11 JUDGE KELLEY: Just in the interest of 12 efficiency?
g 13 WITNESS JOYNER: Yes, sir.
U 14 WITNESS MILETI: If I may add something?
15 JUDGE KELLEY: Sure.
16 WITNESS MILETI: I think I finally understood 17 the question that was put to me earlier, and the total 18 probability of those dots in between those circles being 19 alerted would have to go down.
20 JUDGE CARPENTER: Thank you.
21 (Laughter.)
22 JUDGE KELLEY: You have made Judge Carpenter's 23 evening. Thank you.
24 I guess that concludes the questioning for Ace-F Reporters, Inc.
25 today, and the Board would just like to talk with the
9607 par es about one or two things before we break up. I guess Sim 200 s 1
(,. ) 2 we can excuse the witnesses for the evening.
3 Thank you, gentlemen. We will see you -- let's 4 see, we will be starting here at -- well, the question of 5 when we start has a bearing on another related question, 6 and could we just spend a moment on where we are in terms 7 of our timing expectations.
8 Mr. Eddleman, if we got started with the FEMA 9 people pretty early in the morning, and I don't anticipate 10 that redirect and further cross would take too long, how li long do you think approximately your cross would take on the 12 FEMA witnesses?
(~') 13 MR. EDDLEMAN: Judge, I think it could be v
14 completed tomorrow. One slight problem I have is that 15 tomorrow is election day in North Carolina, and I need to 16 vote over in Durham and the polls don't open until 6:30. But 17 I think I could be over here by 8 o' clock, or about that time, 18 if the Board should desire to start that early.
19 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay. Let's just hear from the 20 other parties. I guess the real question is can we finish 21 tomorrow. Say we started at 9 and we got through with the 22 present panel at 10. Do you think you could get through '.
23 with your cross by mid or late af ternoon or something like
, 24 that? We have this phone call that we would set up.
AceJ[ ';Reporters, Inc.
25 MR. EDDLEMAN: I understand that, Judge. I don't
9608 g
Sim 202% want to quite promise that, but I could come close I think.
j
() 2 But I just don' t want to really commit myself to saying 3
that I can finish in that amount of time, because it depends ,
4 a lot on the way people answer questions. If it goes as l 5
smoothly as today, I don' t think there should be much 6 problem, but I just don't know.
7 JUDGE KELLEY: Any comments from the applicants?
g It is not crucial that we finish tomorrow, but it might 9 be kind of nice if we are close.
10 MS. RIDGWAY: We'also think it would be kini 11 of nice.
12 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay.
() 13 (Laughter.)
14 MR. ROCHLIS: I think it is kind of nice ---
15 (Laughter. )
16 --- but what I want to say is that just 17 looking at the length of our testimony vis-a-vis the 18 applicants', ours was considerably longer. So I don't 19 know how realistic that is.
I 20 JUDGE KELLEY: Do you want to start a little 21 early?
i
! 22 MR. ROCELIS: I have no objection to starting 1
23 at 8 o' clock, Your Honor.
24 MS. RIDGWAY: That would be find with the w; hporows, Inc.
25 applicants.
t _.- - - _ ., _ ._. _ _ ___. _.. _. _ - _ _-. _ -.._ _ _ _ - . _ _ _ - _
. 9609 Sim 20-10 j (Board conferring.)
(Laughter.)
2 3
JWGE KELMY. How about 8:30.
(Laughter.)
4
- * " ^ **
- 5 requirements of my alertness system, Judge.
6 JUDGE KELLEY: Okay, fine.
7 MR. BAXTER: Wouldn't it be possible to g
resume after the telephone conference?
9 10 JUDGE KELLEY: For a while. I don' t think jj it is going to take very long. I didn't mean to suggest that I was thinking that was the end of the day, but rather 12 that we had set the time and we will have to do that. It 13 doesn't mean we have to quit then. We can keep going and 34 15 finish up perhaps.
16 Well, let's say 8:30 and we can excuse you j7 gentlemen for this evening.
18 Thank you.
39 (Witnesses were excused for 20 the evening.)
21 Maybe we can go off the record for a minute.
22 23 Is there anything else that needs to be on 24 the record?
W Reporters, Inc.
25 (No response.)
9610
}
Sim 20-M1 Okay, I gue.ss not.
/ 2 Let's go off the record for a minute.
\a/
3 (Discussion off the record.)
4 (Whereupon, at 6 o' clock p.m., the hearing 5 recessed, to reconvene at 8:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5, 6 1985.)
7 8
9 10 11 12
,s 13 L) 14 15 16 17 18 19 20' 1
( 21 22 l
i 23 24 W Reporters, in_
CERTIFICATE OF OFFICIAL REPORTER 4
This is to certify that the attached proceedings before
- the UNITED STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION in the matter of: '
i NAME OF PROCEEDING: CAROLINA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY and NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN MUNICIPAL POWER AGENCY (Shearon Harris Nuclear Power Plant)
P DOCKET NO.: 50-400 OL
)
PLACE: RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA DATE: MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 1985 were held as herein appears, and that this is the original transcript thereof for the file of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
, (sigt) / . .
(TYPED) GARRETT WhSH, JR.
A y Official Reporter MARY SIMONS ACE-FEDERAL REPORTERS INC.
Reporter's Affiliation, r
i a
1 O
. - _ _ _ _ . - . _ . _ _ _ . . - . . - _ . - - _ _ _ . _ _ . . , , ,_ _ - -., _ . - . . , _ _ . . . _ _ _ . _