ML20141A027
| ML20141A027 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Harris  |
| Issue date: | 10/18/1985 |
| From: | Joyner A, Keast D, Milleti D CAROLINA POWER & LIGHT CO., COLORADO STATE UNIV., FORT COLLINS, CO, HMM ASSOCIATES, INC. |
| To: | |
| References | |
| CON-#485-875 OL, NUDOCS 8510240394 | |
| Download: ML20141A027 (79) | |
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4 October 18, 1985 5
6 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 7
EEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD 8
9 In the Matter of )
)
10 CAROLINA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY )
and NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN ) Docket No. 50-400 OL 11 MUNICIPAL POWER AGENCY )
)
12 (Shearon Harris Nuclear Power )
Plant) )
13 14 15 TESTIMONY OF 16 DAVID N. KEAST, ALVIN H. JOYNER AND DENNIS S. MILETI ON EDDLEMAN 57-C-3 17 (NIGHT-TIME NOTIFICATION) 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25' 26 8510240394 851018 PDR ADOCK 05000400 PDR T
1)303 >
o 1 Q.1 Please state your names.
2 A.1 David N. Keast (DNK), Alvin H. Joyner (AHJ), and 3 Dennis S. Mileti (DSM).
4 Q.2 Mr. Keast, by whom are you employed, and what is your 5 position?
6 A.2 (DNK): I am a Vice President and Senior Project 7 Manager with HMM Associates, Inc. of Concord, Massachusetts, 8 where'I specialize in public warning system studies. HMM has 9 been retain 4d by Carolina Power & Light Company to analyze the 10 Harris siren system in response to Eddleman Contention 57-C-3.
11 Q.3 Please summarise your professional qualifications and 12 experience.
13 A.3 (DNK): I graduated in 1954 from a combined 14 educational program between Amherst College and the 15 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. At that time, I 16 received a Bachelor of Arts degree from Amherst and a Bachelor 17 of Science and a Masters of Science in Electrical Engineering 18 from MIT.
i 19 My professional career has been almost entirely in the 20 field of acoustics, and during that career I have been involved 21 in almost all aspects of the field. Of particular pertinence 22 to the question of nighttime notification, I have performed 23 research, published papers and provided consulting services on 24 the effects of meteorological conditions on the propagation of 25 26 l l
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1 sound outdoors, on the sound attenuating properties of building 2 structures, and on ambient background noise levels. I have 3 provided consulting services and prepared environmental impact 4 studies on the effects of sounds (noise) on people, and I have 5 developed performance criteria for and designed noise control 6 treatments to mitigate noise problems.
7 I am a Fellow of the Acoustical Society of America, a 8 senior member of the Institute of' Electrical and Electronic 9 Engineers and an affiliate of the Institute of Noise Control 10 Engineers. A complete statement of my professional 11 qualifications is appended as' Attachment 1 to this testimony.
12 Q.4 Please describe your specific experience with systems 13 of sirens for alerting the public in the event of an emergency.
14 A.4 (DNK): Following FEMA guidance, I have supervised 15 the design of siren alerting systems for the Susquehanna, 16 Millstone, Connecticut Yankee, Perry and Seabrook Nuclear Power 17 Plants. In addition, I have prepared reports in response to 18 FEMA-43, " Standard Guide for the Evaluation of Alert and 19 Notification Systems for Nuclear Power Plants", for the public l 20 alerting systems at' Turkey Point,. St. Lucie, Crystal River,
- 21 Hatch, Perry, Seabrook and Pilgrim. For Battelle Northwest i
.22 Laboratories, I supervised the development of an analytical
, 23 method of estimating the effectiveness of siren systems.
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o 1 Q.5 Mr. Joyner, by whom are you employed, and what is 2 your position?
3 A.5 (AHJ): I am the lead planner for fixed nuclear 4 facilities within the Division of Emergency Management ("DEM")
5 of the North Carolina Department of Crime Control and Public 6 Safety. The basic responsibilities of DEM include fulfilling 7 the State's role in emergency planning for natural and manmade 8 disasters, in responding to and recovering from disasters, and 9 in mitigating their effects.
10 Q.6 Please summarize your professional qualifications and 11 experience.
12 A.6 (AHJ): As a primary planner for fixed nuclear 13 facilities, I have been directly involved in the development of 14 the effsite emergency capability for the Shearon Harris Nuclear 15 Power Plant, as well as the Catawba, McGuire, and Brunswick 16 nuclear plants. Since April 1985, I hava had overall 17 responsibility for emergency planning activities concerning the 18 Harris plant. Prior to April, I was the coordinator for the 19 September revision and Change 2 to the North Carolina Emergency 20 Response Plan in Support of the Shearon Harris Nuclear Power 21 Plant, and had extensive contact with the surrounding counties 22 in developing their portions of the plan. I was also 23 responsible for overall coordination with the affected counties 24 and the utility in the development of the May 1985 exercise for 25 26 ,
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1 Shearon Harris. In addition, I have supported the Division's 2 response to statewide emergencies such as the tornadoes in 3 March 1984, Hurricane Diana in September 1984, the forest fires 4 which occurred across the State in the Spring of this year, and 5 most recently, Hurricane Gloria. A complete statement of my 6 professional qualifications is appended as Attachment 2 to this 7 testimony.
8 Q.7 Dr. Mileti, by whom are you employed, and what is 9 your position?
10 A.7 (DSM): I am a Professor in the Department of 11 Sociology and Director of the Hazards Assessment Laboratory at 12 Colorado State University, specializing in those areas of study 13 dealing with organizations, hazards, policy and methods (with a 14 particular emphasis on public response to emergencies).
15 Q.8 Please summarize your professional qualifications.
16 A.8 (DSM): I received my Bachelor of Arts degree in 17 Sociology in 1968 from the University of California at 18 Los Angeles. In 1971 I was awarded a Master of Arts degree in 19 Sociology from California State University, Los Angeles. From 20 1971 to 1972, I was an Instructor in the Department of 21 Sociology at the University of Colorado, Boulder. I completed 22 my doctorate degree in Sociology in 1974 at the University of
, 23 Colorado, Boulder. From 1974 to 1978 (when I was appointed an 24 Associate Professor at Colorado State University), I held the-25 l
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o 1 position of Assistant Professor at that institution. I became 2 a full Professor this year. I have taught numerous 3 undergraduate courses including Introduction to Sociology, 4 Complex Organizations, Socio1cgy of Disasters, Research 5 Methods, Theory, Demographic Processes, and Social Change. In 6 addition, I have taught courses at the graduate level such as 7 Advanced Quantitative Analysis, Research Methods I and II, 8 Demography and P:pulation, and Complex Organizations.
9 In 1975 I was appointed Visiting Assistant Professor at 10 the University of Southern California Graduate School of Public 11 Administration. From 1978 to 1979, I was an Invite'd Instructor 12 for the Chautauqua Short Course Program sponsored by the 13 American Association for the Advancement of Science. In 1981, 14 I was appointed Policy Analyst for the seismic Safety 15 Commission by the State of California. (During the year I 16 served this appointment, I was on leave from my university 17 duties).
18 I am also active in a number of professional 19 organizations, including the American Sociological Association; 20 the International Sociological Association; the Pacific 21 Sociological Association; the Midwest Sociological Society; the 22 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute; the Society for the j 23 Study of Risk Analysis; and the American Association for the i 24 Advancement of Science. I currently also serve as a member of 25 26 l
1 the Committee on Natural Disasters in the National Academy of 2 Sciences. A complete statement of my professional 3 qualifications is appended as Attachment 3 to this testimony.
4 Q.9 What is the purpose of this testimony?
5 A.9 (DNK, AHJ, DSM): The purpose of this testimony is to 6 respond to Eddleman Contention 57-C-3. As originally admitted 7 by the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board, that contention 8 asserted:
9 The plan does not have provisions for notification at night, e.g. in-the hours ,
10 between 1 a.m. and 6 a.m. when most people living near the plant would normally be 11 asleep. Nor does the plan assure that they would be timely awakened to take sheltering 12 action, as e.g. on a summer night when many might have windows-open or air conditioners 13 on. The plan should provide automatic phone-dialing equipment to transmit an 14 emergency message to all households in the EPZ for Harris, asking people to alert 15 their phoneless neighbors.
16 The Board has directed that, "[a]t the evidentiary hearing, the 17 Applicants should address whether the sirens can wake up 18 virtually all the people sleeping in the EPZ between 1 and 6 19 a.m., particularly those with windows' closed and air 20 conditioners running. The Applicants should also address 21 whether the presently-planned means of back-up mobile 22- notification could'and should be augmented to meet the "about" 23 15-minute standard in Appendix E, if necessary."
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f 1 Q.10 How would the public within the Harris plume EPZ be 2 notified of an emergency at night', between the hours of 1:00 3 a.m. and 6:00 a.m.?
4 A.10 (DNE, AHJ): The provisions for public notification 5 of an emergency at Harris are the same whether the emergency 6 occurs during the day or at night. The fixed siren system has 7 been designed in accordance with FEMA guidance, and has 69 8 sirens located throughout the Harris EPZ (plus 10 sirens on 9 Harris Lake). It will serve as the primary public alerting 10 system in the event of an emergency at the Harris plant.
11 (DNK) I have analyced the pebformance of a 68 siren system 12 for the particular conditions postulated in Eddleman 57-C-3.
13 My analysis is therefore conservative to the extent that it 14 excluded the 10 sirens around Harris Lake and one new siren 15 which is proposed for the southern edge of the EPZ.
16 Q.11 Mr. Keast, what specifically did you do to assess the 17 effectiveness of the fixed siren system in providing public 18 alerting at night?
19 A.11 (DNK): I have prepared an estimate of the percentage 20 of households in the Shearon Harris plume EPZ which would be 21 alerted by the operation of the sirens on a hot summer night 22 when air co'nditioning wculd be in use.
23 Q.12 What is your estimate?
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r' 1 A.12 (DNK): I estimate that at least one person would be 2 awakened in 69% of the sleeping households. Based upon 3 information from the Arbitron Rating Service on the population 4 already awake during the hours between 1 a.m. and 6 a.m., I 5 added 3% to my estimate and concluded that 72% of the 6 households would be directly alerted by the Harris siren system 7 under the conditions postulated in the contention.
8 Q.13 Summarize briefly how your estimate was made.
9 A.13 (DNK): First, I calculated the sound coverage around 10 each of the sirens for summer nighttime conditions. This 11 allowed me to determine the siren sound levels outside of all 12 the houses. I then subtracted appropriate values for the 13 attenuation of sound from outside a house to an inside bedroom, 14 at the pillow of a bed. I compared these interior sound levels 15 to the background noise at the bed caused by an air conditioner 16 or window fan. In those cases where the siren sound at the bed 17 exceeded the background noise, I determined the probability of 18 awakening at least one person in each household. The results 19 of these calculations, summed over the entire EFZ, led to the 20 conclusion of 69% that I just mentioned.
21 Q.14 Now I would like you to go through each step in more 22 detail. To start with, would you describe how you calculated 23 the outdoor sound coverage of the sirens?
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r 1 1 A.14 (DNK): I used a computer model which calculated the 2 maximum outdoor sound levels at various distances in each of 16 3 directions from each siren, given the terrain around each siren 4 and the meteorological conditions. This model combines the 5 effects of all the major parameters which influence outdoor 6 sound propagation by applying computational algorithms which 7 are directly traceable to the technical literature. These 8 effects are spherical divergence, atmospheric absorption, 9 attenuation by forests, ground absorption, refraction caused by 10 vertical wind-speed and temperature gradients, scattering by 11 buildings in built-up areas and shielding by hills.
12 The calculated sound levels are in decibels (dB), a 13 logarithmic ratio scale customarily used in acoustics. On this 14 scale, quantities that differ by a factor of 2 are 3 dB apart; 15 quantities that differ by a factor of 3 are 5 dB apart; 16 quantities that differ by a factor of 10 are 10 dB apart, etc.
17 The results of our computer model have been compared with 18 field measurements of the energy-equivalent level of actual 19 siren sounds obtained by other organizations. On average, the j 20 computer model results agree with the field measurements to 21 within about 0.9 dB with a standard deviation of 4.4 dB.
l 22 We have used this computer model for studies of siren 23 coverage around the Seabrook, Pilgrim and Maine Yankee nuclear 24 power plants. In addition, the model has been sold to other 25 organizations for their use.
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r 1 Using the computer calculations, we have determined sound-2 coverage contours around each siren in 5 dB steps, starting at 3 105 dB and ending at 60 dB. Drawn on a map (Applicants' 4 Exhibit 46), these contours roughly form rings about each 5 siren. The rings are often mis-shapen because of the local 6 effects of terrain around particular sirens.
7 Q.15 Did you use the siren sound coverage contours which 8 were prepared for the FEMA-43 studies of the Harris siren 9 system?
10 A.15 (DNK): No. Siren coverage depends upon weather 11 conditions. FEMA-43 studies, which analyze siren systems in 12 accordance with FEMA requirements, are done for average summer 13 daytime conditions. Since the contention addresses nighttime 14 conditions, our calculations were done for the nighttime 15 meteorological conditions listed in Attachment 4.
16 Sound generally propagates (i.e., travels farther) 17 outdoors with less attenuation at night than in the daytime.
18 Each of the contours we computed for nighttime conditions, 19 covered a greater area than the daytime contour for the same 20 sound level. There are two major physical reasons for this 21 difference. First, low wind speeds at night combined with a 22 positive temperature gradient suppress the occurrence of 23 acoustic shadow zones. Second, normal air temperature 24 increases with height above the ground at night, and this 25 reduces the shielding effect of hills.
26 1 Q 16 Would you please describe how you determined the 2' numbers of houses exposed to various siren sound levels 3 outdoors?
4 A.16 (DNK): The maximum siren sound-level contours 5 computed as I have just described were drawn on maps that were 6 supplied to us by Carolina Power & Light Company. These maps 7 show the locations of the residential buildings in the EPZ.
8 The residential building locations are reproduced on 9 Applicants' Exhibit 46, and are based upon a 1982 housing 10 survey conducted by Carolina Power & Light Company. I manually 11 counted the buildings within each pair of contours, and 12 attributed a single sound level to each of these counts. For 13 example, all houses between the 85 and 90 dB contours were 14 assumed to be exposed to 87 dB; all houses between the 70 and 15 75 dB contours were assumed to be exposed to 72 dB, and so 16 forth.
17 At the lower siren sound levels, we encountered many 18 houses which were covered by approximately the same sound level 19 from two or more sirens: for example, houses within the 80-85 20 dB ring of two different sirens. In such cases we combined the 21 exposure logarithmically. For this example, 82 dB (which is 22 the level we used for houses in a single 80-85 dB ring) plus a 23 second 82 dB yields an 85 dB exposure. The justification for-24 this adjustment in sound level in those cas'es-where siren 25 26 o
1 coverages overlap will become apparent when I describe how we 2 determined awakening in response to the siren sounds.
3 In this way, we assigned outdoor siren sound levels to all 4 houses in the EPZ. These levels ranged from 67 to 112 dB. The 5 actual sound levels and numbers of houses counted for each 6 level are listed on Attachment 5.
7 Q.17 How did you determine the siren sound levels indoors?
8 A.17 (DNK): We considered the fact that different houses 9 have different attenuation characteristics. In single-family 10 residential buildings, these differences are attributable 11 almost entirely to the windows: whether they are open or 12 closed, and whether storm windows are in use. On the basis of 13 acoustic studies and demographic data, we divided the houses in 14 the EPZ into the 8 sub-groups listed on Attachment 6, assuming 15 an even distribution of each sub-group, according to its 16 percentage of the housing stock, within each of the designated 17 sound contour levels.
18 For example, consider subgroup 1 on. Attachment 6.
19 Demographic data from the references identified on the 20 Attachment indicate that 35.6% (a fraction of 0.356) of the 21 houses in the EPZ have no air conditioning. We assumed that 22 all such houses would have their bedroom windows open and a 23 window fan in operation on the hot summer night under study.
24 (The analysis is conservative to the extent that it overstates 25 26 l e
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1 the background noise for houses without window fans.) Acoustic 2 studies have shown that the reduction of sound level, er 3 attenuation, from outdoors to just above the pillow of a 4 bedroom with windows open averages 12 dB. Other studies have 5 shown that the pertinent background noise level at the pillow 6 caused by a window fan averages 40 dB.
7 For another example, consider subgroups 2, 3 and 4 on the 8 Attachment. Demographic data indicate that 30.2% (a fraction 9 of 0.302) of all houses have window air conditioners, and I 10 have assumed that when these are in use the bedroom windows 11 would always be closed. 53% of these houses with window air 12 conditioners have one installed in the bedroom. This 13 represents 0.53 x 0.302 = 0.16- of all houses. The remainder, a 14 fraction of 0.14% of all houses, have a window air conditioner 15 installed elsewhere in the house. To be concervative, I have 16 assumed that these are installed in a room adjacent to the 17 bedroom, and that the intervening door is open. s 18 In addition, observations of and reports on the EPZ 19 indicate that about 75% of the air-conditioned houses have 20 storm windows installed and closed if possible during the 21 summer. (storm windows cannot be fully closed in a room where 22 a window air conditioner is installed.) The remaining 25%
23 either have no storm windows, or leave one or more of them open 24 in summer, even where the' main sashes are closed.
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I 1 Finally, acoustic studies have shown that the attenuation 2 of the siren sound in penetrating closed windows to the head of j 3 a bed is 26 dB when the storm sash is open, and 30 dB when the 4 storm sash is closed. Other studies have shown that the 5 background noise at the bed from a window air conditioner in 6 the same room is 49 dB, and that the attenuation of air 7 conditioner noise from one room to the next through an open 8 intervening doorway is 10 dB.
l 9 In a similar manner, the demographic and acoustic data 10 noted on Attachment 6 have been used to determine the necessary '
j 11 information for the 34.2% of the houses in the EPZ which have 12 central air conditioning.
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Let me illustrate how the information on housing 14 differences in Attachment 6 were applied to analyze siren sound i 15 levels in bedrooms in the EPZ. Attachment 5 indicates that I
16 there are 1826 houses between the 80 and 85 dB siren sound 17 level contours (or within the overlapping 75 to 80 dB rings of
! 18 three sirens, which is equivalent). of these 1826 houses, the
! 19 ratios listed on Attachment 5 indicate that 650 houses (the 20 35.6% without air conditioning and windows open) have a maximum a
t 2 21 siren sound level at the bed of 70 dB (82 minus 12), and that
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) 22 this level is 30 dB (70 minus 40) above the background noise 23 caused by the fan. Similarly, an additional 732 houses (16%) [
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- 24 with window air conditioners.in the bedrooms have a. maximum l 25 l 26 l t l
- t 1 siren sound level at the pillow of 56 dB (82 minus 26). This 2 siren sound level is 7 dB (56 minus 49) above the background 3 noise caused by the air conditioner.
4 You can see how this process, carried out for all of the 5 eight classes of houses, divides the example of 1826 houses 6 having a maximum outdoor siren sound level of 82 dB into eight 7 sub-groups with different siren sound levels at the pillows of 8 a bedroom, and with correspondingly different amounts of siren 9 sound relative to the background noise level in the bedroom.
10 of course, we repeated this process for all of the 19 nominal 11 outdoor siren sound levels listed in Attachment 5, so we had a 12 total of 152 sub-groups of houses (19 times 8).
13 Q.18 You have described how you coy.puted the maximum siren 14 sound levels and compared them to background noise levels in 15 the bedrooms of the houses in the EPZ. How do you know whether 16 or not people would be awakened by the siren sounds?
17 A.18 (DMK): There has been considerable research on the 18 extent to which people are awakened by sounds. I believe that 19 it is important to review for this hearing some of the 20 qualitative results of this research.
21 This review is based upon a report by Jerome S. Lukas of 22 the Stanford Research Institute, which was published by the 23 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in February 1977.
24 This report-is entitled " Measures of Noise Levels: Their 25 26 - . - - _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1 Relative Accuracy in Predicting Objective and Subjective 2 Responses to Noise During Sleep" and numbered EPA-600/1-77-010.
3 Lukas' report is a comprehensive analysis of all data 4 available at the time on the effects of sound on sleep. His 5 results were adopted by the EPA for general guidance (see U.S.
6 E.P.A. " Desk Reference to Health and Welfare Effects of Noise",
7 October 1979); and to support federal noise regulations (see, 8 for example, " Regulatory Analyses for the Final Noise Emissions 9 Regulations for Buses", EPA 550/9-80-212, July, 1980).
10 First, the level of the awakening sound at the sleeper's 11 head position must be high enough to be audible in the presence 12 of the ambient background noise at the sleeper. Once this 13 threshold is exceeded, the chance of awakening increases as the 14 sound level increases. This observation is embodied in Mr.
15 Eddleman's contention where he posits that whereas siren sounds 16 might not awaken people at night, a ringing telephone would.
17 Secondly, the duration of the sound is important. The 18 lon,er a sound of a given level persists the more likely it is 19 that it will awaken people.
20 Third, the age of the sleeper is believed to be pertinent.
21 The tendency of people to be awakened by a sound increases with 22 their age. Beyond college age, there are indications that 23 women are more likely to be awakened than men of the same age.
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1 Fourth, the meaning of the sound, or the motivation of the 2 sleeper to be awakened by the sound, is a factor. Even when we 3 are sleeping, we are still hearing and discriminating among the 4 sounds in our environment. Depending upon our motivation, we 5 are more likely to be awakened by certain " recognizable" sounds 6 than by others. It is a common experience that some sounds 7 sufficient to awaken people are quite modest: a footstep in 8 the hall or a restless child in another room.
9 Finally, physiologists have determined that normal sleep 10 has several different stages which occur at various times 11 during the sleep period. People are more likely to be awakened 12 during some of these sleep stages than during others.
13 Q.19 What particular results have you relied upon in this 14 case to determine the extent to which the sounds of sirens will 15 awaken people sleeping in the Shearon Harris EPZ?
16 A.19 (DNK): In his report, Lukas has summarized the 17 results of about 20 different research studies on the ability 18 of noises and other sounds, such as tones, to disturb people's 19 sleep. In analyzing these research results, which included the 20 results of five of his own research efforts, Lukas developed 21 conclusions in four areas.
22 1. The appropriate measure of sound exposure, in terms 23 of the sound level, spectral content and duration, to i
24 relate sound to sleep disturbance and awakening; 25 1 26 i
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1 2. The relationship of sound to arousal or behavioral 2 awakening of sleepers; 3 3. The relationship of sound exposure to disruption, or 4 change in sleep patterns, without awakening; 5 4. The relationship of sound exposure to sleep quality, 6 as judged by the test subject.
7 I have applied the first two of these results from Lukas' 8 report: The use of Effective Perceived Noise Level (EPNdB) as 9 an appropriate measure of sound exposure, and Lukas' 10 relationship between EPNdB and the percentage of people 11 awakened by sounds.
! 12 This approach includes the effects of the level and 13 duration of the sound, and relies upon averaged awakening data j 14 for college and middle-aged men and women. The effects of 15 various sleep stages are also averaged, and presumably the 16 motivation of the test subjects to be awakened was neutral.
17 Q.20 What is Effective Perceived Noise Level?
18 A.20 (DNK): Effective Perceived Noise Level is a measure 19 which ccmbines the various physical properties of a sound into 20 a number that correlates highly with people's judgment of the 21 noisiness of the sound. EPNdB is expressed in decibels. !
22 Included in the EPNdB measure computed for a sound are factors 23 for the spectral content (akin to pitch) of the sound, the 24 magnitude or level of the sound, the duration of the sound, the 25 26 l l
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f 1 rapidity with which it occurs and the presence of any strong l 2 tonal characteristics in the sound.
i l 3 I believe that the most familiar application of the EPNdB i
{ 4 concept is in the regulation of the noise from airliners by the l: ,5 Federal Aviation Administration under 14 CFR Part 36.
6 Q.21 How did you calculate the EPNdB values for the siren
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7 sounds in people's bedrooms around the Harris plant?
8 A.21 (DNK): I used the same method Lukas did, according 9 to references in his report. This method is described in a i j 10 book by Karl D. Kryter entitled The Effects of Noise on Man '
) 11 (Academic Press, New York, 1970). The only difference, l 12 according to Lukas, is that he used a sound reference duration i
13 of 1/2 second, as opposed to Kryter's reference duration of 8
. 14 seconds. To conform to Lukas, I also used a 1/2 second
- 15 reference duration.
f 16 I would like to expand on this matter of sound duration.
j 17 First of all, the EPNdB value for a steady sound increases as l 18 long as the sound persists.. The rate of increase is 3 dB for t t
i 19 each doubling of the sound duration. For' example, if a steady.
j 20 sound lasts 1 second and has an EPNdB value of 100 dB, then if
- 21 it continues for 2 seconds the EPNdB value would be 103 dB; l
] 22 after 4 seconds it would be 106 dB; after 8 seconds, 109 dB, i
i 23 etc. This is the way in which the EPNdB concept. incorporates i
i 24 the fact that people are more likely to be awakened the longer -
25 a sound lasts.
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1 Secondly, you will recall my testimony earlier that when 2 counting houses, we increa. sed the nominal outdoor sound level 3 when a home fell within the coverage areas-of tso or more 4 sirens. The example I used was a home within the 80 to 85 dB 5 coverage ring of two different sirens. I indicated that the 1
6 level we used for houses in a single 80 to 85 dB ring was 82 L
7 dB, and for houses where two of these rings overlapped we used-
, 8 the log sum of 82 dB plus 82 dB, or 85 dB. Now imagine being
} 9 in one of those areas where the coverage of two sirens 4 10 overlaps. The-sirens are on and rotating and if by chance they 1 11 are exactly in synchronism so that the two sound beams pass our
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j 12 location simultaneously, we would indeed be exposed to the log '
! 13 sum of the two sound levels, or 85 dB in this example. It is 14 more likely, however, that the sound beams from the sirens 15 would not be synchronized and we would hear one pass and-then 16 the other. The effect is to double the portion of the. time 17 that we hear a siren. This is an increase in-the duration of l 18 our sound exposure. In computing EPNdB values, a doubling of 19 sound duration has the same effect as a doubling of sound 20 level, a 3 dB increase in both cases. This is the 21 justification for logarithmically adding-the outdoor siren 22- sound levels for those houses that fall within the: coverage 23 areas of two or more sirens.
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1 . Finally, I want to explain how we determined the effectire 2 sound duration for rotating sirens. As a siren rotates, the 3 sound level rises and talls at any fixed location. The sound 4 level vs. time is determined by the directivity pattern of the 5 siren and the siren rotation rate. In computing EPNdB values, 6 I integrated over this temporal pattern for those portions of 7 the pattern that exceeded the background noise in the bedroom.
4 8 Close to a siren where the sound level is high compared to the 9 background noise, the integration is over the whole peak of the 10 sound beam as the siren rotates by. At a great distance from 11 the siren, the sound level is less, and the duration of 12 exposure is also reduced because less of the siren sound peak 13 rises above the background noise. In extreme cases the peak of 14 the siren sound beam never exceeds the background noise, the 15 siren is inaudible and the EPNdB integral is zero.
16 Q.22 Given the EPNdB values you calculated for the 152 17 categories of houses, how did you then determine the percentage 18 of households in which someone would be awakened?
19 A.22 (DNK): The Lukas report.I mentioned gives the 20 percentage of people who would be awakened at any EPNdB value.
21 This percentage, divided by 100, is the probability of 22 awakening any one person exposed to that EPNdB.
23 of course, it is only necessary to awaken one person in a 24 household in order to be assured that.the whole family will be 25 26 _ _ ..
I 1 alerted. From Lukas' percentage, it is possible to calculate 2 the probability of awakening one out of two people in a 3 household, one out of three, one out of four, and so on.
4 U.S. Census data indicate that the average family size in 5 the Shearon Harris EPZ is 3.37 people. Using this number, I 6 computed the probability of awakening one out of three people 7 for each of the 152 housing categories, multiplied by the 8 actual number of houses in each category, and then summed the 9 results. This led to the conclusion that 77% of the households 10 would be awakened.
11 On reflection, however, I felt that this result 12 overestimated awakening for small families and underestimated 13 it for large families. The same census data also indicate that 14 18.5% of the households in the Shearon Harris EPZ have one 15 person; 29.5% have 2 persons; 19.6% have 3 persons and the 16 remaining 32.4% have 4 or more persons. Using these numbers I 17 calculated the probability of awakening one person for 18.5% of 18 the houses; the probability of awakening one out of two persons 19 for 29.5% of the houses; the probability of awakening one out 20 of three persons for 19.6% of the houses; and the probability 21 of awakening one out of four persons for 32.4% of the houses.
22 Summed over all housing categories, this led to my conclusion 23 that at least one person would be awakened in 69% of the 24 households.
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i 1 Q.23 Why do you think some might consider your estimate to 2 be somewhat higher than what they might intuitively expect 3 based on common experience? <
l j 4 A.23 (DNK): I believe there are two reasons. First, l 5 sound generally travels outdoors with less attenuation at night i
! 6 than during the daytime. At many locations in the EPZ, the i
j 7 siren sound level will typically be higher at night than in the '
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{ 8 daytime. Hence, the sound is more likely to be effectivs after ,
' 9 penetrating building structures.
i 10 Secondly, in the event of an emergency, the sirens will be !
11 operated for a really long time. The persistence of this 12 sound, compared to something like the siren of a speeding fire 13 engine, will greatly increase the number of people awakened.
j 14 Q.24 Just how long would the fixed sirens be sounded in 15 the event of an emergency at Harris? t i !
16 A.24 (AHJ): For initial public notification, sirens will '
, 17 be sounded for four three-minute periods'during the first 15 j
18 minutes after activation. The three-minute activations will be 1
2 j 19 interrupted only by intervals of approximately 30 seconds in i 20 which the sirens are re-activated. The intent-is to sound the i
4
.' 21 sirens as frequently as possible during the first 15 minutes !
! 22 subsequent to activation. For notification thereafter, the ,
1 i 23 number of soundings is in the judgment and discretion of the i
! 24 public official responsible for activating the system, i
- 25 depending on conditions such as the time of day.
26 1
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1 (DNK): My calculations were performed assuming a total 2 siren operating time of 10 minutes, and hence are conservative 3 when compared to the 12 minute operating time planned by the 4 State.
5 Q.25 Mr. Keast, you have described a large number of 6 calculations that you performed. To what extent is your 7 conclusion supported by experimental evidence?
8 A.25 (DNK): The numbers I used are based upon 9 experimental evidence. These include the numbers for sound 10 attenuation through the atmosphere and building structures, 11 background noise levels indoors, the locations of houses, the 12 numbers of houses by type of air conditioning and window 13 condition, awakening as a function of sound properties, and 14 family sizes.
15 There have also been instances where sirens have operated 16 at night, either intentionally or inadvertently, and awakened 17 large numbers of people as a result. Most recently, when 18 Hurricane Elana was approaching the west coast of Florida, the 19 siren system in the EPZ around the Crystal River Nuclear Plant 20 was activated at 1:00 in the morning, and was very effective.
21 In addition, there have occasionally been inadvertent 22 operations of a few sirens at night near the Indian Point and 23 Pilgrim Nuclear Plants, and indeed at Harris last April. In 24 every case I am told that there were large numbers of irate 25 26
_ . . _ . . _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . . _ _ __ __._.. ___._ __._ __._ _m _ _ __.
i 1
t j 1 phone calls to local police departments and other public 7
2 officials.
I i 3 Q.26 In addition to the fixed siren system, is there any i
4 other direct means of public notification in the event of an
! 5 emergency at Harris?
i 1
A.26 (AHJ):
6 Yes. Emergency response officials would ,
7 provide additional public notification of an emergency through i
j 8 an extensive system of mobile alerting. Thus, in all four
! 9 counties within the EPZ, vehicles with flashing lights, sirens I 10 and/or public address systems will be dispatched promptly upon J
- 11 the activation of the fixed sirens, to provide additional i
12 public warning by driving predesignated routes within the EPZ.
j 13 A thorough analysis has been performed'to ensure that the l 14 entire EPZ vill be covered by this mobile alerting system. t i
15 Zones within the EPZ have been subdivided into subcones within j 16 which the road mileage has been measured. The roads have been i 17 assigned to specific county agencies, and the routes planned
- 18 out. In addition, it has been determined that there are i i
! 19 sufficient vehicles and personnel to perform the mobile i 20 alerting in a timely manner. This conclusion. applies to both 21 daytime and nightime (1 a.m. to 6 a.m.) conditions. While the i
j 22 mobile alerting process cannot be completed within 15 minutes, 1
i 23 it would be well underway within that period. 13ue times for 1
24 completion of route alerting would range from approximately 20 i
25 1
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1 to 45 minutes, depending on the subcone. (These times include 4 2 the time needed.for emergency personnel to reach their duty i
3 posts to begin the notification process).
4 The flashing. lights, sirens and/or PA systems of mobile 5 alerting vehicles passing throughout the EPZ can be expected to i
4 6 alert most households who might not have heard the fixed 7 sirens. A specific illustration of the use of mobile alerting
. 8 is the November 1977 evacuation of between 400 and 500 people i
9 in Clyde, North Carolina, due to a flash flood. Beginning at "
l j 10 about 2:00 a.m. , using two police cars and a fire truck, 11 emergency officials completed public notification within 1 12 approximately 30 minutes.
l 13 Q.27 Would it be possible to augment the' mobile alerting 14 system so that mobile alerting within the Harris EPZ could be 15 completed within 15 minutes?
! 16 A.27 (AHJ): No. Each of the four counties has identified ,
17 additional personnel (with equipment) who would be available to f
18 assist with mobile alerting, if necessary, should any of the 19 predesignat'ed personnel be unavailable for any reason at the [
- 20 time of an emergency. However, there simply'are not sufficient '
21 resources to complete mobile alerting of the EPZ within 15-22 minutes. On the other hand, if.public officials determine that j 23 only a portion of the EPZ needs to be alerted by the fixed 24 siren system and the mobile alerting system, the warning times e 25 l 26 ,
! t t
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i 1 could be reduced somewhat by concentrating the identified
- 2 mobile alerting resources in smaller operational areas, i
3 Q.28 What would happen to any households which might not
! 4 receive direct notification of an emergency, either through the j 5 fixed siren system or through mobile alerting?
j 6 A.28 (DSM): In addition to the two identified means of I
[
7 direct (formal) notification, the general public can be 1
i 8 expected to be notified of an emergency through a wide variety
! 9 of indirect means. Informal notification is a very typical 10 public response to emergency information and warnings. It is a r 11 phenomenon that is-well documented by social science research, 12 (see, for example, T.M. Carter, S. Kendall, and J.P. Clark, 13 " Household Response to Warnings," Mass Emergencies and i
14 Disasters, 1, 1:95-104, 1983; and D. Mileti, et al., Human
)
f- '15 Systems in Extreme Environments, Boulder: Institute of 16 Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, 1975, Chapter III, 17 pp. 44-45) and it would undoubtedly occur in response to formal 4
18 notification (sirens, emergency-information and warnings) at 19 the Harris plant.
- 20 Q.29 What do the findings of social science research teach ,
j 21 us about informal notification?
22 A.29'(DSM): Public response to emergency information and 23 warnings of impending disasters has been a topic of i
24 investigation by social scientists for almost three de. cades.
a
- 25 4
1 i
26 !
I
1 Many studies have been performed on the subject in a variety of 2 emergencies stemming from geological, climatological, and 3 technological phenomena, and have been documented in a vast 4 body of emergency literature. This research record provides 5 evidence about a wide range of emergency warning /public 6 response phenomena, including public notification and 7 communication between members of the public in an area at risk.
8 .A clear conclusion of this research is that people 9 generally seek out additional information upon receipt of an 10 initial warning, before acting on that warning. The end result 11 is that, historically, many people in emergencies have first 12 learned of emergencies from other members of the public. There 13 are two reasons why this is the case. First, emergency 14 warning /public response is an evolving process; and, second, 15 people generally do not respond to emergency warnings as 16 individuals -- rather, emergency response is largely a gr.oup 17 activity. These two fundamental generalizations were 18 established early on in disaster and emergency research 19 conducted in the 1950's and 1960's; they were substantiated in 20 subsequent research, and they have been consistently confirmed 21 in contemporary research investigations.
22 The initial response of most people to a warning of an 23 impending emergency is to seek out more information, and/or 24 engage in additional communication with others. This need to 25 t
E 26 .
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i 1 engage in a confirmation process is perhaps one of the best 2 documented phenomena in warning / response research. For most 1
j 3 people, hearing a warning does not automatically and 4 instantaneously lead to protective action. Rather, hearing a 5 warning is typically followed by formulating an understanding 4
6 of that warning; understanding is followed by believing; 7 believing is followed by personalizing the warning; j 8 personalizing is followed by making a decision about what to 9 do; and the decision is followed by actual protective action i 10 response behavior. Thus, this step-by-step sequence (which can
! 11 be completed quickly) involves engaging in a process of i
j 12 confirming the warning information that is first received.
I i 13 Confirmation of warning information occurs in a variety of j 14 ways; for example, people may turn to different radio or TV 15 stations to hear the warning several times, check with friends i'
16 and neighbors to ask if they heard the same message, and talk 17 the situation over with others. One consequence of the l 18 behaviors in which people engage as they seek confirmation of
~
i 19 warning information is that they'actually become part of the
- 20 notification / warning dissemination effort, albeit informally, 1
l 21 through social networking. In other words, in the event of an l 22 emergency at the Harris plant, the seeking of confirmation 23 would lead people to contact others who might or might not as j
i 24 yet have learned of the emergency. .
!, 25 I 26 i l l
i i
L
1 Moreover, people rarely, if ever, respond to emergency 2 warnings of an impending disaster as social isolates, and most 3 people in most emergencies do not respond as individuals.
4 People generally respond to emergency warnings in groups.
5 Accordingly, because emergency response is largely group 6 behavior, emergencies transform the order of a community into 7 one in which people act towards one another in ways which are 8 more altruistic and caring than the patterns of interpersonal 9 interaction which form routine, day-to-day community life.
10 Some exemplary consequences of this are that, in an emergency, 11 neighbors, friends and family -- and even total strangers --
12 check on one another and offer assistance if it is needed. One 13 cbvious result of this tendency of people in emergencies to 14 form groups and to of fer aid and assistance to one another is 15 that it causes people to be in communication with other members 16 of the public who might not as yet have learned of the 17 emergency. Thus, for example, people who have been awakened in 18 the night and received notification of an emergency at Harris 19 generally can be expected to notify neighbors whose houses are 20 still dark and where no one appears to be stirring.
21 Finally, the high level of activity which would be 22 associated with an emergency at Harris would have a strong 23 " ripple effect," generally alerting members of the public to 24 seek additional information about the events taking place, even 25 26 !
1 if they had not been directly warned by either the fixed 2 sirens, the mobile alerting system, or another member of the 3 public. In other words, the activities of other residents who 4 have already received notification (turning on the lights in 5 their homes, perhaps preparing to evacuate, or even the stream 6 of traffic driving out of the EPZ) could awaken (if necessary) 7 and alert most members of the public who may not yet have been 8 warned, and cause them to seek additional information about 9 what is going on (for example, by turning on the TV or radio, 10 or by talking to neighbors).
11 Q.30 Is it possible to estimate the extent and speed of 12 such indirect notifica*. ion processes?
13 A.30 (CSM): Yes. There have been several attempts to 14 estimate what I would term " indirect" or " informal" 15 notification of this sort in particular hypothetical 16 emergencies. Additionally, some research efforts on actual 17 emergencies have collected data on the proportion of a 18 particular population at risk that (a) learned of the emergency 19 through informal / indirect notification and/or (b) was formally 20 alerted and then engaged in the informal / indirect notification 21 of others. This research documents the occurrence of 22 indirect / informal notification in emergencies, and provides 23 some empirical basis for estimating its rate of occurrence, 24 given estimates of the proportion of a population notified 25 formally (for example, through sirens).
26
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1 Q.31 What is your estimate of the extent and speed of 2 informal / indirect notification if an emergency were to occur at F
3 the Harris plant? ,
4 A.31 (DSM): I have two separate sets of estimates. One 5 is based on what I call the " natural" rate of informal / indirect '
6 notification. These estimates reflect what would be likely to 7 occur given the natural tendency of people to engage in this 8 sort of activity in an emergency. The second set of estimates 9 is what I have termed the " facilitated" rate of 10 informal / indirect notification. These estimates reflect'what 11 would likely occur if emergency planning for Harris were to 12 capitalize on this natural tendency in people, to maximize its 13 occurrence in an actual emergency.
14 Q.32 What is your estimate of the natural rate of 15 informal / indirect notification for the Harris EPZ?
16 A.32-(DSM): The estimates I developed lead me to conclude 17 that some 80% of the total population would be alerted within 18 the first 15 minutes, and that some 85% of the' total population I 19 would be alerted within the first 30 minutes. These estimates 20 are, however, extremely conservative, actual natural rates of 21 informal / indirect notification would likely be higher.
22 Q.33 How did you compute your 15-minute estimate based on 23 the natural rate of informal / indirect notification for the 24 Harris EPZ?
25 26 i
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. - . , ,-m,_,.--, _ - - -
1 A.33 (DSM): I used a simple formula to compute this 2 estimate:
3 % OF HOUSEHOLDS % OF HOUSEHOLDS 4 TOTAL % OF ALERTED (AWAKENED & ALERTED INFORMALLY S HOUSEHOLDS = AWAKE) FORMALLY + (AWAKENED BY COMMUNICA-6 ALERTED BY SIRENS TIONS FROM OTHERS) 7 This approach assumed that one person in a household would wake 8
up and alert other persons in the same household. It has been 9
estimated that 69% of the sleeping households in the EPZ would 10 be alerted (awakened) by the sirens, and that because of people 11 already awake, a total of 72% would be directly alerted. This 12 total of 72%, therefore, is the number I used for the 13 percentage of households alerted (awakened plus awake) formally 14 by sirens in the above formula. The next step was to compute 15 the percentage of non-formally alerted households that would be 16 informally alerted. I estimated this percentage using the 17 following formula.
18
% OF HOUSEHOLDS 19 ALERTED INFORMALLY % HOUSEHOLDS (% OF THOSE (AWAKENED BY COMMUNICA- = STILL ASLEEP x .30 ALERTED 20 TIONS FROM OTHERS) AFTER SIRENS FORMALLY) 21 Let me explain this computation. The percentage of households 22 still asleep after the sirens would be sounded was taken to be 23 28% (100% less the 72% alerted formally). The percentage of 24 ho.useholds alerted formally (72%) was multiplied by 30% (an 25 assumed rate for those formally alerted who would engage in 26 informal notification). This indicated that 21.6% of the total i
1
1 population would be engaged in the informal notification of 2 others. I assumed that this informal notification would occur 3 randomly; that is, that those involved in initi,ating informal 4 notification would do so 72% of the time with households 5 already notified, and 28% of the time with households not 6 already alerted. Accordingly, 21.6 x 28.0 indicates that an 7 additional 6% of the sleeping households would be alerted 8 informally. This suggests that some 78% of the total 9 population would be notified within 15 minutes. I adjusted 10 this estimate by 2%, and conclude that some 80% would be 11 notified within 15 minutes (an extremely conservative 12 estimate).
13 Q.34 Why do you consider 80% to be conservative?
14 A.34 (DMS): I consider 80% to be an extremely 15 conservative estimate for several related reasons. First, 16 while numbers vary from emergency to emergency, 30% is a very 17 conservative estimate of the number of people formally alerted 18 who would engage in the informal notification of others. For 19 example, in the 1981 Mt. Saint Helens emergency (see M. Lindell 20 et al., Planning Concepts and Decision Criteria for Sheltering 21 and Evacuation in a Nuclear Power Plant Emergency, Washington, 22 D.C.: Atomic Industrial Forum, 1985, p. 5-16), 30% of the 23 total population had direct notification of the emergency and 24 they alerted an additional 38% of the total population within 25 26 .
1 15 minutes. These data suggest that a 126% multiplier operated 2 in that emergency for informal notification in the first 15 3 minutes. And, in the 1982 Rapid City, South Dakota flood, 4 which occurred at night when many people were asleep, 75% of 5 the population receiving a first warning or alert responded by 6 engaging in additional communication; over half of these (some 7 40%) engaged in activities that would translate into informal 8 notification.
9 Second, my computation assumed that households initiating 10 informal notification would do so only once, with one other 11 household. This would be the case for some, but would not be 12 the case for all those initiating informal notification, as 13 demonstrated in the Mt. Saint Helens emergency (where 30% of 14 the population alerted another 38% of the population).
15 Third, my computation assumed that persons notified 16 informally would not themselves engage in initiating informal 17 notification of others.
18 Finally, the 80% estimate did not take into account the 19 proportion of the population that would be " alerted" or 20 awakened by all the activity associated with, for example, an 21 evacuation.
22 I am therefore confident that 80% is a very conservative 23 estimate of the number of households that would be alerted in 24 the first 15 minutes of sounding the sirens because of a night 25 time emergency at Harris.
26
1 1 Q.35 How did you compute your 30 minute estimate based on 2 the natural rate of informal / indirect notification for the 3 Harris EPZ, and why do you believe it to be conservative?
4 A.35 (DSM): I used the same procedures and assumptions 5 used in estimating informal notification for the 15 minute 6 period -- that is, that 30% of those alerted (now 80% of the 7 EPZ households) would engage in informal notification and that '
8 20% of the time they would contact a non-alerted household.
9 Thus, .30 x .80, or 24% of the alerted population would alert 10 .24 x .20, or another 5% of the population. This estimate of 11 85% is conservative for essentially the same reasons as was the 12 80% estimate for the first 15 minutes. '
13 Q.36 Do you have any additional comments concerning these 14 estimates of the natural rate of informal / indirect 15 notification?
16 A.36 (DSM): Yes. I want to emphasize that these '
17 estimates are likely to be the lower end of a range of 18 estimates that could be reasonably produced. The estimates 19 would undoubtedly have been higher if I were able to quantify 20 and include relevant excluded factors, such as the proportion 21 of those initiating informal notification who would do so with i 22 more than one other household, and other excluded factors I 23 have discussed.
24 25 26 l
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I l Q.37 What is a " facilitated" rate of informal / indirect 2 notification, and what is your estimate of it for the Harris 3 plant? ,
4 A.37 (DSM): The purpose of emergency planning is to take i 5 steps in advance of an emergency to facilitate a better i
6 response than would occur naturally without plans. It would be 7 quite possible to increase the natural rate of 8 informal / indirect notification in an emergency at the Harris l 9 plant by recognizing that such notification occurs naturally, 10 and taking steps to increase its occurrence. The number of 11 people who engage in the informal / indirect notification of l 12 others could be increased by simply incorporating into i 13 emergency broadcast system (EBS) messages some simple words to 14 the effect that "if your neighbors' house is dark, wake them."
(
15 The estimates I developed lead me to conclude that some 98% of 16 the total population would be alerted in the first 15 minutes, 17 and that some 95% of the total population would be alerted 18 within the first 30 minutes. Like my estimates of the natural 19 rate of informal / indirect notification, these estimates are 20 also conservative; actual facilitated rates of 21 informal / indirect notification can be expected to be higher. 1 22 Q.38 How did you compute these 15 and 30 minute estimates 23 based on the " facilitated" rate of informa',/ indirect i 24 notification for the Harris EP2, and why do you believe them to 25 be conservative?
26 l j
i :
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- o 1 A.38 (DSM): I performed the calculations in the same way l 2 as for estimates based on the natural rate of informal / indirect
- 3 notification,, with one exception. The exception was that I
, 4 used an 80% rate, rather than a 30% rate, for persons formally i
j 5 alerted who would engage in informal / indirect notification.
! 6 Let me explain the calculations, and then explain why I believe 7 an 80% or higher participation rate in informal notification 8 would occur based on an addition to the EBS messages such as I L 9 discussed.
1 10 I computed the 15 minute notification estimate of 88% by 11 adding the 72% of the population formally alerted to the 16%
12 that I estimated would be alerted informally. The 16%
i j
13 informal / indirect notification estimate was arrived at by 14 multiplying the 80% participation rate by the 72% formally I 15 notified; this produced an estimate of 57% of the population of
\ '
16 households engaged in initiating informal notification. This j 17 57% of the population would successfully alert a non-alerted l
18 household 28% of the time (72% of the time an already alerted j 19 household would be contacted); thus, 57% of the 28% success 20 rate indicated that 16% more of the popuiation would be
! 21 alerted.
I j 22 The 30 minute estimate was computed on the same basis and
] 23 in the same way: 80% of a now 88% alerted population suggests i 24 a 70.4% estimate attempting informal / indirect notification.
l 25 l 26 9 i e
J 1 This 70.4% would successfully contact a non-alerted household 2 12% of the time, indicating an 8.5% increase in the whole 3 population alerted through informal / indirect notif,1 cation in 4 the second 15 minute time interval. This indicates that about 5 95% of the population would be notified in the first 30 6 minutes. These estimates based en " facilitated"
- 7 informal / indirect notification likely underestimate 8 notification for the same reasons that I consider the " natural" ;
i 9 informal / indirect notification estimates to ce conservative.
j 10 The obvious question, however, is why it is safe to assume 11 80% versus 30% participation in informal / indirect notification t
a 12 because of the addition of a simple instruction in the EBS ;
13 i message. Social science investigations of how and why people 1
14 respoad as they do to emergency information and warnings
- 15 establish that the key determinant of public response to 16 warnings is the emergency information that the public receives, g
j 17 History is filled with examples of emergencies in which public j 18 emergency information was poor, and in which public response to l
19 that emergency was inappropriate. History also documents many 20 emergencies in which good emergency public information 21 facilitated timely and appropriate public response. Most 22 people respond to emergency information based on what they j, t 23 think is the right thing to do at the time. I am therefore i i
24 confident that emergency public information that points out to i
25 i
i 26 -40 '
l l
}
O !
1 people that they may be needed to awaken their neighbors would ,
2 engage most of the alerted population in checking to see if 3
3 their neighbors were awake.
4 Q.39 Will the initial EBS messages for broadcast in the :
5 event of a nighttime emergency at Harris include an instruction i
6 such as that discussed by Dr. Mileti? !
7 A.39 (AHJ): Yes. l 8 Q.40 Are there any other means by which public 9 notification of an emergency is assured) r 10 A.40 (AHJ): Following the initial fixed siren and mobile ,
11 alerting warnings, law enforcement and other official vehicles 12 would be in the area to ensure complete evacuation or other r
13 protective action, and to provide security. They will be 14 instructed to check premises where no protective action 15 activity is evident.
16 Q.41 Please summarize your testimony. L 17 A.41 (DNK): The fixed stron system serves as the primary 18 public alerting system within the Harris EP2, for bo*.h day and 19 night. Activated at night under the conditions postulated by 20 Mr. Eddleman, the fixed siren system can be expected to awaken 21 at least one person in 69% of the sleeping households in the !
22 EPZ within 15 minutes. Given that some of the population would 23 already be awake, I have concluded that approximately 72% of '
24 the households in the EPZ would be directly alerted by the 25 26 ^
I i
9 4
1 fixed siren system under the conditions postulated in the 2 contention.
3 (AHJ): Each of the four co, unties within the EPZ has in 4 place a comprehensive plan for mobile alerting to provide 5 additional direct notification to the general public. While 6 the mobile alerting process cannot be completed within 15 7 minutes, it would be well underway within that period. Thus, 8 although the times for completion of mobile alerting would 9 range from approximately 20 minutes to 45 minutes (depending on 10 the EPZ sub:one), many households would be covered by the 11 mobile alerting system within 15 minutes.
12 (DSM): In addition, emergency public warnings elicit 13 communications between members of the public who are the target 14 of official emergency warnings. Feople rarely translate 15 warnings into personal protective actions without first seeking 36 and engaging in confirmatory communications rather, people draw 17 into groups, and consult with and warn others. These phenomena 18 are natural, predictable responsec to emergency warnings, and 19 can be relied upon in emergency planning as a ecmponent of 20 public notification in the event of an actual emergency.
21 Moreover, the generally high level of activity associated with 22 an emergency alerts members of the general public, even if they 23 are not directly warned by either the official warning systems, 24 or by another member of the public. I am confident that these 25 26 ,
t 5
1 general principles of emergency warning /public response -- well 2 established through decades of research and investigation --
3 would be applicable in the event of an emergency at the Harris 4 plant. These naturally occurring phenomena can be 5 conservatively expected to provide notification within about 15 6 minutes to an estimated additional 8 to 10% of the households 7 in the EPZ (beyond those receiving direct notification of an 8 emergency). This estimate can be expected to double if the 9 informal / indirect notification process is facilitated through 10 the EBS system as the State has described, 11 (DNK, DSM, AHJ): The alert / notification system for the 12 Harris EPZ thus provides the capability to essentially complete 13 the initial notification of the public within about 15 minutes.
14 15 l 1C 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 I
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t UNITED STATES OF AMERICA -
NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION
} 'OCT 2 31985* E i BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOJk j[?$$8g u ac ,
NT g l j In the Matter of ) ;
i ) I i CAROLINA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY ) t
! and NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN ) Docket No. 50-400 OL 3 MUNICIPAL POWER AGENCY ) j l
)
j (Shearon Harris Nuclear Power ) t
] Plant) ) i t
CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I i
j I hereby certify that copies of the " Testimony of David N. [
l Keast, Alvin H. Joyner and Dennis S. Mileti on Eddleman 57-C-3 ;
] >
j (Night-time Notification)," including Attach.nents 1 through 6, i
1 were served this 18th day of October, 1985, by deposit in the i U.S. mail, first class, postago prepaid, upon the parties l l listed on the attached Service List. As identified on the at- t i
j tached Service List, certain parties have also been served (via 1-
\
the same means) with Applicants' Exhibit 46 (a map). [
. ?
l l
{
MAIb Delista A. Rityway ' Q ML
('
l t l l l Dated: October 18, 1985 ;
I '
I !
! t i
i -
. . j i . f
e UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION l BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD e
L In the. Matter of )
' )
CAROLINA POWER & LIGHT COMPANY )
and NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN ) Docket No. 50-400 OL MUNICIPAL POWER AGENCY )
)
(Shearon Harris Nuclear Power )
Plant) )
SERVICE LIST l
. James L. Kelley, Esquiro John D. Runkle, Esquire Atomic Safety and Licensing Doord Conservation Council of U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission North Carolina Washington, D.C. 20555 307 Granville Road !
Chapel liill, North Carolina 27514
- Mr. Glenn O. Bright Atomic Safety and Licensing Doard M. Travis Payne, Esquiro U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Edelstein and Payno Washington, D.C. 20555 Post Office Dox 12607 ,
Raleigh, North Carolina 27605
- Dr. James H. Carpenter Atomic Safety and Licensing Doard Dr. Richard D. Wilson i U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 729 Ilunter Street
! Washington, D.C. 20555 Apex, North Carolina 27502
- Charles A. Barth, Esquire
- Mr. Wo11s Eddleman
, Janice E. Moore, Esquire 806 Parker Street i
Elaine Chan, Esquire Durham, North Carolina 27701 office of Executive Legal Director U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Richard E. Jones, Esquiro Washington, D.C. 20555 Vice President and Senior Counsol Carolina Power & Light company Docketing and Servico Section Post Office Dox 1551 Office of the Secretary Raleigh, North Carolina 27602 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 Dr. Linda W. Little Governor's Wasto Management Doord Mr. Daniel F. Road, President 513 Albemarle fluilding CilANCE 325 North Salisbury Street Post Office Dox 2151 Raleigh, North Carolina 27611 Raleigh, North Carolina 27602 1 e
r P
, o Bradley W. Jones, Esquire U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Region II- i 101 Marietta Street l
Atlanta, Georgia 30303 ;
Mr. Robert P. Gruber Executive Director I Public Staff - NCUC Post Office Box 991 l Raleigh, North Carolina 27602 i.
Administrative Judge Harry Foreman Box 395 Mayo :
University of Minnesota .
Minneapolis, Mirnesota 55455 l
- Spence W. Perry, Esquire Associate General Counsel FEMA
- 500 C Street, S.W., suite 480 Washington, D.C.
20740 s'
- Steven Rochlia, Esq. 1 Regional Counsel FEMA 1371 Peachtree Street, N.E. s .
~
Atlanta, Georgia 30309 7= -
, t
~
, . l H.A. Cole, Jr., Esquire Special Deputy Att.orney General l i
200 New Bern Aver 4ue r Raleigh, North Carolina 27601 !
i I
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9 6
Attachment 1 DAVID N. KEAST i
Education B.A. Amherst College, 1952 B.S., M.S. Electrical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1954 Summary of Experience Mr. Keast is a specialist in acoustics, and brings over 30 years of experience in the field to HMM. His work has included research on the propagation of sound out-of-doors; study of the acoustic and vibration environment of silo-launched missiles; design, development and analyses of advanced instrumentation; computer programming for acoustic applications; and environ- 1 mental noise control. In the last 5 years, Mr. Keast has been ,
extensively involved with the design and analyses of public warning systems using sirens.
Professional Experience 1983 - HMM Associates, Vice President and Prestnt Project Manager.
Mr. Keast directs environmental noise and public warning-system studies at HMM Associates. Recent experience includes the following:
Preparation of FEMA-43 Reports for the Turkey Point, St. Lucie, Crystal River, Hatch, Pilgrim, Seabrook and Perry nuclear plants.
Design of the public alerting system for !
New Hampshire Yankee's Seabrook Station.
Background noise studies for the Maine Yankee nuclear plant.
Instructor for Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories' Emergency Planning Workshop.
1973-1983 Bolt Beranek and Newman, Inc. Manager, Environmental Technologies Department.
For the Defense Civil Preparedness Agency (a FEMA predecessor), Mr. Keast prepared BBN Report 4100 and CPG 1-17, both referenced in Appendix 3 of NUREG-0654/ FEMA REP-1. He is the principal author of NUREG/CR-2654
" Procedures for Analyzing the Effectiveness
k DAVID N. KEAST Page 2 of Siren Systems for Alerting the Public."
He supervised the design of the public alerting systems for the Susquehanna, Millstone, Connecticut Yankee and Perry Power plant sites. For Battelle Laboratories, he evaluated the systems at Trojan, Zion, TMI and Indian Point.
While consulting for Northeast Utilities, Mr.
Keast assisted in EEI's review and commentary on FEMA's Draft " Guide for the Evaluation of Alert and Notification Systems for Nuclear Power Plants."
Mr. Keast's other activities involved management of major projects evaluating the environmental impacts of industrial and power.
plants, and of high-voltage power trans-mission lines. He has also been active in applications of acoustics to building energy conservation.
1971-1973 M.F.E. Corporation, Salem, NH. Vice President of Engineering.
At M.F.E. Corporation, Mr. Keast was responsible for design, engineering, manufacturing and marketing of instrumentation.
1954-1971 Bolt Beranek and Newman, Inc. Acoustical Consultant.
Mr. Keast spent his first 17 years at BBN working on projects related to acoustics,,
noise control, and the measurement of sound and vibration.
Professional Registrations / Affiliations
. Acoustical Society of America (Fellow)
Institute of Electrical and. Electronic Engineers (Senior Member)
Affiliate Member of the Institute of Noise Control Engineering .
Books Measurements in Mechanical Dynamics, McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., New York, NY (1967).
it-DAVID N. KEAST Page 3 l
" Basic Sound Measuring System," Chapter 5 of Noise Reduction, L.L. Beranek, McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., New York, NY (1960).
Brief articles on Sound Measurement Apparatus, Encyclopedia of Science, McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., New York, NY (1960, 1965, 1980).
Technical Papers and Selected Reports:
"On the Prediction of the Attenuation of Sound Propagated Over Ground," (with F.M. Wiener), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 29 1953 (1957) (A).
" Instrumentation for the Study of the Propagation of Sound Over Ground," (with F.M. Wiener and K.N. Goff), J. Acoust. Soc. Am.
30, pp. 860-966 (1958).
"An Empirical Method for Estimating Wind Profiles Over Open Level Ground," (with F.M. Wiener), Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 39, pp. 858-864 (1958).
" Equipment and Procedures for Field Measurements of Aircraft Noise and Flight Paths," (with W.E. Clark and W.J. Galloway),
J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 30, p. 693 (1958) (A). ,
" Experimental Study of the Propagation of Sound Over Ground,"
(with F.M. Wiener), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 31, pp. 724-733 (1959).
" Calibration of Accelerometers in a Simulated Space Environment," J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 31, pp. 584-587 (1959).
" Acoustic Instrumentation for Measurements in the Minuteman Miseile Silo," (G.W. Kamperman), J. Audio Eng. Soc., pp.
180-184 (1960).
" Measurement of Rocket Engine Noise," Noise Control 7, pp.
25-36 (1961). (Invited paper at the 60th Meeting of the Acoustical Society of America).
" Acoustical Measurements in the 1/3-Scale Minuteman Missile Silo," 29th Symposium on Shock, Vibration and Associated Environments (November 1960).
"An Analog System for the Analysis of Random Data Signals Up to 10 Kilocycles," IRE Transactions on Instrumentation, I-II, pp.
52-57 (September 1962).
DAVID N. KEAST Page 4
" Airborne Vibration Spectrum Analysis: Some Techniques and Limitations," (with J. Gibbons and W.E. Fletcher), 31st Symposium on Shock, Vibration and Related Environments (October 1962).
" Digital Computer Processing of Telemetered Vibration Data,"
(with W.E. Fletcher and J. Gibbons), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 34, 1962 (A).
" Noise and Vibration Characteristics of Large Solid Rocket Motors with Thrust Vector Control," (with P.A. Franken and D.E. Newborough), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. (1964) (A).
"Some Studies of Titan II Noise and Vibration Data," (with P.A. Franken), J. Acoust. Soc. Am. (1965) (A).
" Analog Versus Digital Data Analysis: An Introduction," SAE Paper 650818 presented at the SAE National Aeronautics and Space Engineering and Manufacturing Meeting in Los Angeles (October 1965).
"A Survey of Graphic Input Devices," Machine Design (August 1967).
"The Noise Environment of the California Condor," BBN Report 1259 (October 1965).
" Summer Acoustic Environment of the Jamesport and Shoreham Sites," BBN Report 2656 (October 1973).
"Some Pitfalls of Community Noise Measurement," J. Air Pollution Control Assoc. 25(1), pp. 36-39 (January 1975).
" Ambient Noise Studies in Suburban and Rural Areas," (with E.W. Wood and J.D. Barnes); invited paper presented at InterNoise '74, Washington, DC (September 1974).
"An Instrument for Automated Community Noise Monitoring," (with B.E. Blanchard); invited paper presented at InterNoise '74, Washington, DC (September 1974).
" Development of a Procedure for Predicting Noise Environments Around Industrial Siter,," BBN Report 2987 (September 1974).
" Audible Noise and Its Effects from Proposed Pannell-Volney 765 kV Transmission Line," BBN Report 3514 (March 1977).
" Regulatory Aspects of Audible Noise from EHV/UHV Transmission Lines," an invited paper before the IEEE, PEG meeting in South Bend, Indiana (September 1977).
}
k s
DAVID N. KEAST Page 5
" Attenuation of Northern Dwellings to a Linear Source of Noise," (with D.A. Driscoll and J.P. Dulin, Jr.), J. Acoust.
Soc. Am. 63 Supp 1, (A) May 1978).
" Assessing the Impact of Audible Noise from AC Transmission Lines: A Proposed Method," paper F79237-9 presented at IEEE Winter Power Meeting, New York, NY (February 6, 1979).
" Energy Conservation and Noise Control in Residences," a paper presented at Noisexpo '79, Chicago, April 1979, and reprinted in S/V Sound and Vibration, p. 18-22, July 1979.
" Acoustic Location of Air-Infiltration Openings in Buildings,"
invited paper presented at InterNoise '79, Warsaw, September 1979.
"The Use of Sound to Locate Infiltration Openings in Buildings," Proceedings of the ASHRAE/ DOE-ORNL Conference on Thermal Performance of Exterior Envelopes of Buildings, ASHRAE SP 28, pp. 85, 1981.
" Electrical Substation Design Practice in the United States and Its Influence on Transformer Noise in Surrounding Communities,"
Proc. InterNoise '81, pp. 627, 1981.
l l
i, W
p Attachment 2 STATEMENT OF PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS ALVIN H. JOYNER DIVISION OF ENERGENCY PANAGEMENT NC DEPAIUMENI 0F CRIME C0tfIROL & PUBLIC SAFE 1Y PIEMISSIGIAL EIPERIEN3 Emergency Management Planner I. North Carolina Deoartment of Crime Control and Public Safety. October 1953 - Fresent.
Principle planner for emergency response to nuclear accidents within the State of North Carolina. Specific responsibilities involve developing State policy and plms concerning emergency response to nuclear power plant emergencies, woviding guidance to state and local government officials and other public anad private agencies in the preparation of emergency response plans to ensure accuracy and compatibility with State and Federal plans, provide consultation and guidance to nuclear utility management to ensure full availability of resources and cohesiveness of emergency response plans. Support the State Emergency Response Team (SERT) when a tisaster or threat of a disaster is present.
Plans, operations, and. Military Support Officer, The Adjutant General's 0ffice, E ta of North Carolina. January 1983 - October 1983. -
Principle staff officer for emergency planning within the North Carolina National Guard. Specific responsibilities involved developing, evaluating, and putting into operation a variety of contingency plans for such emergencies as natural disasters, civil disturbances, land special security missions, nuclear attack, or alert and mobilization of National Guard units for State or Federal emergencies. Functioned as the State Director of Security, responsible for the direction and implementation
- of physical, commtmications, information, and automatic data processing security l programs.
l Administrative Officer, North _ Carolina National Guard. September 1978 - January 1983.
Fulltime executive assistant to the Commander of a General Officer Command of one Artillery Brigade, one Support Group of four separate battalions with a troop population of 3,677. Coordinated the day-to-day administration, fiscal and budget matters, logistics, maintenance, military law, military and technician personnel, pay, public and community relations, recruiting plans and programs, training and managerial functions. Supervised 130 employees, including supervisors in civil service (GS) grades 4 through 11 engaged in personnel, training, supply, maintenance, aid administration. Coordinated the preparation of domestic emergency and military support for contingency and operational plans for the command.
Administrative Officer. North Carolina Army National Guard. December 1972 -
September 1975. _
Fulltime executive assistant to the Commander of a North Carolina Army National Guard separate Support Group of four attached battalions and one separate company representing a troop population of 2,685. Coordinated the day-to-day administration, fiscal, and budget matters, logistics, maintenance, military law, 1
._ _ =_ -_-.- . _ . _ -_ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _
military and technician personnel, pay, public and community relations, recruitLng plans and programs, training, and managerial functions. Coordinated the preparation of domestic emergency and military support for contingency and operational plans for the command.
Administrative Officer, North Carolina Army National Guard. March 1961 -
December 1972.
, Fulltime executive assistant to the Commander of a Divisional Medical Battalion.
Coordinated the day-to-day administration, training, supply, and maintenance activities within the command. Recruiting plans and programs for the professional complement. Exercised supervision over one (1) operations and training specialist GS-09, one (1) staff supply assistant GS-07, one (1) administrative specialist GS-l 07, four (4) administrative and supply technicians GS-07, one (1) organizational naintenance shop chief WG-12 and three (3) general mechanics.
Power Plant operator, E.I. DuPont De Nemours Company. January 1953 - March i 1961.
Power Plant auxiliary operator within an industrial plant utilizing fossil fuel.
Specific responsibilities included operation of turbine condensers for plant
! electric ganerators, primary refrigeration machines for the entire plant, operation of power plant production of compressed air and analysis and treatment of all -
conditioned water for both human and industrial purposes.
I MtAINDC 1
(DURSE SCHOOL
_YR_ O W L 1961 Medical Service Corps Officer Medical Field Service School Orientation ,
1967 Army Medical Department Officer Medical Field Service School Advance 1971 Cacnand & General Staff Officer Conmend & General Staff (Henor Grad) College 1973 Introduction to Supervision US Civil Service Comission 1974 Engineer Officer Orientation Engineer School 1974 National Guard Personnel US Civil Service Commission Management 1976 Iogistics Management Orientation US Army Iagistics Management Center 1977 Ordance Officer Advance US Amy Ordance School 1978 National Security Management National Defense University 1978 Role of the Manager in EED US Civil Service Ca mission 1978 Management Awareness Officer NC State Personnel US Army logistics Management 1979 Installation Management Center 1979 Middle Management US Office of Personnel 1980 Netotiating labor Agreements ce of Personnel Management 1980 Administrative Officar NG Profession Education Can.
1982 14bor Relations Supervision US Office of Personnel for Managers Managanent 2
' US Defensa indust. Security 1982 Industrial Facilities Protection Inst.
1982 Basic Disaster Operations Course ency Management Inst.
1982 Assoc. Logistics Executive US Army logistics Management Development Center 1983 Classification Management for National Guard Bureau Managers 1983 Search and Rescue Management US Air Force Rescue Seminar Coordination Center 1984 Managing the Search Ebnction National Assoc. for Search
& Instructor Workshop and Rescue 1984 Basic Nuclear Power Concept Tennessee Valley Authority Course 1985 Federal Radiological Emergency Bnergency Management Response Plan Workshop Institute (FEMA)
SGHEY My profeasional career has been almost entirely in the military. I retired from fulltime duty with the North Carolina National Guard as a Lieutenant Colonel (GS-
- 12) in October 1983. During that career my responsibilities have been almost entirely devoted to planning anad training to support the National Guard in its military role both to the Nation and the State. 1 am an honor graduate of the Army's coveted Command and Staff College and completed numerous other military courses directly related to plans and operations.
3
b Attachment 3 ACADEMIC VITA 0F DENNIS S. MILETI May, 1985 PERSONAL Offica:
Department of Sociology Hazards A's'sessment Laboratory Colorado State University Aylesworth Hall Fort Collins, Colorado 80523 Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado 80523 ligga:
1120 Monaco Parkway, Denver, Colorado 80220 EDUCATION University of Colorado, Boulder: PhD, Sociology, 1974 California State University, Los Angeles: MA, Sociology,1971 University of California, Los Angeles: SA, Sociology, 1968 SPECIALT7ATIONS Complex Organizations, Applied (Hazards and Policy), Methods APCOINTMENTS 1974-date Facul ty, Department of Sociology, Colorado State Uni-versity, Fort Collins (198S-date, Professor; 1978-1985, Associate Professor; 1974-1978, Assistant Professor).
1984-date Director, Hazards Assessment Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins.
1981-year Policy Analyst, Seismic Safety Commission, State of California, Sacramento (on leave from university).
1978-1979 Invited Instructor, American Association for the Advan-cement of Science, Chautauqua Short Course Prograrr.
197S-year Visiting Assistant Professor, University of Southern Cal i fo rnia, Graduate School of Pubite Administration, Intensive Seminar Program.
1971-1972 Instructor, Department of Sociolcgy, University of Colorado, Boulder.
3.E80.1 1983-1984 Alumni Honor Faculty Award, Colorado State University Alumni Association for excellence in teaching, research and service 1981-year Cited in Outstanding Young Men of America 1978-1977 Cited for excellence in teaching, research and service by the Dean, College of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences M ERSHIPS
- American Sociological Association, International Sociological Associa-tion, Pacific Sociological Association, Midwest Sociological Society, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Earthquake Engi-neering Research Institute, Western Social Science Association, Natio-nal Coordinating Council on Emergency Management, Sigma X1.
t I
l
RESEARCH GRANTS 2@. CCNTRACTS 1984-1985 Principal Investigator, " Assessment of Human Stress Impacts from the Livingston Train Derailment and Chemi-cal Emergency," contract for Illinois Central Gul f Railroad.
1984-date Associate Investigator, " State-of-the-Art Assessment:
Evacuation," subcontract from Oak Ridge National Lab-oratories for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
1984-date Associate Investigator, " International Study of Disas-ter Impact on Domestic Assets," subcontract from the University of Georgia for the National Science Founda-tion.
1983-1984 Principal Investigator, "Research and Applications for Emergency Preparedness," contract for Long Isl and Lig-hting Company.
1983-1984 Principal Investigator, " Intended and Forgotten Audien-ces for Emergency Warnings," quick-response grant from the Natural Hazards Research Applications and Informa-tion Center.
1982-1983 Associate Investigator, " Organizational Interface for Nuclear Reactor Emergency Preparedness," subcontract from Oak Ridge National Laboratories for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
1981-year Principal Investigator, " Nuclear Hazard Warnings and Emergency Evacuation Preparedness," contract for Pact-fic Gas and Electric Company.
1980-1983 Principal Investigator, " Local Land Use Policy Deci-sions," Colorado State University Experiment Station.
1979-1982 Principal Investigator, " Behavioral Aspects of the Three Mile Island Incident and Re-start," contract for General Public Utilities via Shaw, Pittman, Potts and Trowb ridge. .
1977-1980 Principal Investigator, " Migration Impacts of Non-metropolitan Areas in the West," Colorado State Univer-sity Experiment Station.
1977-1979 Principal Investigator, " Adoption and Organizational Implementation of Policy for Land Use Regulations,"
grant from the National Science Foundation.
197S-1977 Coprincipal Investigator, Socioeconomic, Organizational and Political Consequences of Earthquake Prediction,"
grant from the National Science Foundation.
1972-1974 Research Sociologist, " Assessment of Research on Natu-ral Hazards," grant from the National Science Founda-tion.
CONNITTEE MEuBERSHIoS 1984-1987 National Academy of Science, National Research Council, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, Ccm-mittee on Natural Disasters.
1984-1986 National Academy of Sciences, National Research Coun-l cil, Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources, Board on Earth Sciences, Subcommittee on Earthquake Research.
1984-date National Institute of Mental Health, Public Health Service, Conter for Mental Health Studies of Emergen-2
cies, Advisory.
1983-year National Science Foundation, U.S. Delegate on Ear-thquake P ediction Research to Japan, International Scientific Exchange Section.
1983-date Front Range Consortium on Na'tural Hazards Studies, Colorado State University, University of Colorado, University of Denver.
1983-date International Sociological Association, Research Com-mittee on Disasters.
1982-1983 Pacific Scciological Association, Nominations Committee for the Standing Comittees for 1983.
1982-date Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Chair, Com mittee on Social Science Research, Berkeley.
1981-1983 U.S. Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, Advisory Panel on the Earthquake Studies Program.
1981-1982 Pacific Sociological Association, Program Committee for the 1982 Annual Meetings in San Diego.
1981-1982 Governor's Emergency Task Force on Earthquakes, Threat, and Reconstruction Committees, State of California, Sacremento.
1980-1981 Governor's Science and Technology Advisory Council, Comittee on the Relocation of Uranium Mill Tailings, State. of Colorado.
1979-year American Association for the Advancement of Science, Committee on Intergovernmental Research and Development on Fire Safety and Disaster Preparedness, Washington, D.C.
1976-1978 National Academy of Sciences, National Research Coun-cil, Commission on Sociotechnical Systen s, Committee on Socioeconomic Ef f ects of Earthquake Prediction, Wash-ington,D.C.
3
6 PUELICATIONS Ecchi Ag Monograehs (refereed)
Milett, Dennis S.
Ihg Order sf. Chaos h Disasters (in progress).
Milett, Dennis S., John Schneider and O. Stanley Eitzen Graduate Research Methods h ng Seef al Sciences (in progress).
Gillespie, David F., and Dennis S. M11eti 1979 Technostructu res AIui Interorcanizational Rel ations. Lexington, Massachusetts: Lexington Books.
Gillespie, David F., Dennis S. Milett and Ronald Perry 1976 Organizatienal Reseense .t2 Chancing Cent-unf tv Svste~s Kent, Ohio:
Kent State University Press.
Chacters (invited and refereed)
M11ett, Dennis S.
1986 "Research methods and disaster research." In Russell R. Dynes '
and Carlo Pel anda (Eds.). Sociol ogv af. D i s asters Contributiens gf, Sociology .t2 Disaster Research. Italy: Franco Angeli (forth-coming).
Milett, Dennis S., and John H.' Sorensen 1985 "Why people take precautions against natural hazards." In Neil Weinstein (Ed.). Encou raging Sel f-Protection Behav ior (forth-coming).
Sorensen, John H. and Dennis S. Milet' 1985 " Protective actions for natural hazards: a review of programs to stirnulate pubile adoption." In Neil Weinstein (Ed.). Enceuraging Sel f Drotection Behav f or (forthcomirg).
Hartsough, Donald M., and Dennis S. M11eti 1985 "The media in Disasters." Pp. 282-294 in J. Laube and S. Murphy (Eds.), Presrectives b 21saster Recoverv. Norwalk, Connecticut:
Appl eton-Centu ry-Cro f ts. ,
Hutton, Janice, Dennis S. Milett and John Sorensen 1964 " Factors affecting earthquake warning system ef fectiveness." Pp.
947-956 in K. Oshida (Ed.), Earthcuake Predicticn. Tokyo: Terra Scientific Publishers for UNESCO.
Milett, Dennis S., Janice Hutton and John Sorensen 1984 " Social f actors af fecting the response of groups to earthquake pred iction." Pp. 649-658 in K. 09 tda (Ed.), Earthcuake Pred ic-
.tisn. Tokyo: Terra Scientific Publishers for UNESCO.
Sorensen, John, Janic9 Hutton and Dennis 0. Mileti 1984 " Institutional management of risk information following ear-thquak e predictions." Pp. 913-924 in K. Oshida (Ed.), Earthcu ake Prediction. Tokyo: Terra Scientific Pub 1ishers for UNESCO.
Hutton, Janice, John Serensen and Dennis S. Mileti 1981. " Earthquake prediction and public reaction." Pp. 129-166 in T.
Rikitake (Ed.). Current Research .in Eartheuake Prediction. Bos-ton: Reidel Publishirg Company, Tokyo: Center for Academic Publi-cations.
l 4
. l Mileti, Dennis S.
1981 "Pl anning initiatives for seismic hazard mitigation." Pp. 44-53 in J. Isenberg (Ed.). Social Ansi Econenic Imoact af. Earthouakes sn Utility Lifelines. New York: American Society of Civil Engi-neers. -
Monograohs mui Chacters (quasi-refereed)
Milett, Dennis S., and Joanne Nigg 1985 " Social science earthquake investigations." In Roger Scholl (Ed.). Les sons Lea rned f.IQ2 Recent Earthcuakes. Berkeley: Ear-thquake Engineering Research Institute (forthcoming).
Review Panel of the National Earthquake Hazards Peduction Plan 1984 National Eartheuake Hazards Reduction Programe E.1.y.g Y. tan Prog ram E.lf.n, Washington, D.C.: Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Sorensen, J., E. Copenhaver, D. Milett and N. Adler 1984 Organizational Interf ace .in Reacter E-ercenev Pl annin? IJU1 f.ti .
pense. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG No. CR-3524 Milett, Dennis S.
1982 "A biblicgraphy for graduate research methods." Pp. 249-255 in Russel Schutt, Al an Grenstein and Theodore C. Wagenaar (Eds.).
Research Metheds Ceurses: $y.11 ab i . Assignments yui Pro f ects.
Washington, D.C.: American Sociological Association.
Mileti, Cennis S., Janice Futton and John Sorensen 1981 Eartheu ake Prediction Resconse And Got tens f.g.c Public Poliev.
Boulder: Institute of Behavioral Science, Monograph 28.
Santopolo, Frank, and Dennis S. Milett 1980 T-cacts of. Pocul ation Grewth .in Acricul tural Colorado Ccmmittees.
Fort Collins: Colorado State University Experiment Station Bulle-tin.
Committee on Fire Safety and 01saster Preparedness 1979 E. ira Safety f.n:1 Disaster P-eoaredness. Washington, D.C.: American Asscciaticn for the Advancement of Science.
Committee on Socioeconomic Effects of Earthquake Prediction 1978 A Program of, Studies gn ng Sccieecenemic Effects gf. Eartheuake Prediction. Washington, D.C.: National Academie of Sciences-National Pescarch Council.
Milett, Dennis, S., thomas E. Crabek and J. Eugene Haas .
1975 thT,an Systems h Extreme Envircements? A Sqciological Persoec-
.ti,y g. Bou l d e r: Institute of Behavioral Science, Monograph 21.
Milett, Dennis S.
1975 Natural Hazard Warning Systems in & United States. Boulder:
Institute of Eshavioral Science, Monograph 12. Portions reprin-ted in Joseph Perry and Meredith Pugh, Collective Behavior?
Resconse M Stress. 1978.
Erickson, Neil, John Sorensen and Dennis S. Mileti 1975 Landslide Hazards .in n.g United Statest A Research Assessment.
Sculder: Instituto cf Behavicral Science.
Milett, Dennis S.
1975 Disaster Relief mui Rehabilitation .in ha United States. Boulder:
Institute of 2ehavioral Science.
Ayre, Robert, Cennis S. Milett and Patricia Trainer 1975 Eartheuake Ana Tsunami Hazards .in 2g United Staten A Research Assessment. Boulcer: Institute of Eehavioral Science.
5
Jcornal Ar+1cles t Discioline Focus (refereed)
Mileti, Dennis S., and David F. Gillespie 1985 "The effects of legitimacy on goal change and formalizatien in
. organizations," Journal af. cente-corarv' Sociolocv (accep :ed and forthcoming).
Milett, Dennis S.
1985 "The human equation in earthquake prediction and warning," Poliev Studies Review (accepted and forthccming).
Milett, Dennis S., Donald Hartsough, Patti Madson and Pick Hufnagel 1984 "The Three Mile Island incident: a study of behavioral indicators of human stress." h hergencies itJi Disasters 2(1):89-11a.
M11ett, Dennis S.
1983 " Societal comparisons of organizational response to earthquake prediction: J apan v s the t.'n tted States." M as s Emergencies Acal Disasters 1(3):399-414 Gillespie, David F., and Dennis S. M11ett 1982 "Dif ferentiation in organizations," Social Forces 60(4): 1172- <
1175.
M11ett, Dennis S.
1982 " Structure and process in the inplementaticn of public policy,"
Political Science Review 21(1):1-34 Milett, Dennis S.
1982 "A review of research on public policy adoption," Pubi te Admints-tration Review (accepted and forthcoming).
Milett, Dennis S.,. Doug Timmer and David F. Gillespie 1982 " Intra and interorganizational determinar.ts of decentralizaticn,"
Pacific Scciolocical Review 2S(2):163-183.
Milett, Dennis S., David F. Gillespie and Stan Ef tzen 1981 "The multicirrensionality of organizaticnal s ize," Scciol ogv And Secial Research 6S(4):400-414 Gillespie, David F., and Dennis S. M11eti 1981 "Heterogenecus samples in organizational research," Sociological Methods ftjl Research 9(3):327-388.
Mileti, Dennis S.
1980 " Human adjustment to the risi of environmental extremes," S,ggit isgy,itJl Social Research 64(3):327-347.
Gillespie, David F., and Dennis S. Mileti 1980 " Determinants of planning in organizations," Administrati.yt S.qj, .
AnfJt Revfew 10(3):21-32.
M11eti, Dennis S., and David F. Gillespie 1980 " Organizational and techno1cgical interdependercies," Jcurnal sf, contemnerary Sociologv 17(3-4):132-158.
Gillespie, David F., Ponald Perry and Dennis S. Milett 1980 " Stress and transformation," J ou rnal n.f. Soci al Research 21(2):139-147.
Mileti, Dennis S., David F. Gillespie and Stan Ef tzen 1979 " Structure and decision making in corprate or;anizations," Socio-1522y. Ansi Social Research 63(4):723-744.
Gillespie, David F., and Dennis S. M11eti 1979 " Action and contingency postulates in organization-environment relations," than Rel ations 32(3):261-271.
6 i
i M11ett, Dennis S., David F. Gillespie and Elizabeth Morrissey 1978 " Technology and organizations: methodological deficiencies and lucunae," Technology ag Culture 19(1):83-92.
Gillespie, David F., and Dennis S. Mileti .
1978 " Organizational technology and environment adaptation-manipula-tion," Scottish Journal d Soefolegv 2(2):205-219.
Mileti, Dennis S., David F. Gillespie and J. Eugene Haas 1977 " Size and structure in complex organizations," Social Forces 56(1):208-217.
Gillespie, David F., and Dennis S. Milett 1977 " Technology and the study of organizations: an overview and appraisal," Academv d Management Review 2(1):6-19. Reprinted in Readings an H2x Managers Manage. Englewood Clif fs, New Jersey:
Prentice Hall,1982.
Milett, Dennis S., and David F. Gillespie 1976 "An integrated formalization of organization-environment interde-pendencies," Fuman Rel ations 29(1):80-100.
Gillespie, David F., and Dennis S. Mileti 1976 "Drganizational adaptations to changing cultural contingencies," "
Seefological Incuiry 46(2):135-141.
Gillespie, David F., Roy Lotz, Dennis S. Milett and Ronald Perry 1976 " Historical and paradigmatic differences in the use of the goal concept," International Review d Historv AM Political Science 8(30):1-14.
Gillespie David F., and Dennis S. Milett 1976 "A refined model of dif ferentiation in organizations," Sociology AM Social Research 60(3):263-278.
Perry, Ronald, David F. Gillespie, Roy Lotz and Dennis S. Milett 1976 " Attitudinal variables as estimates of behavior," Eurecean Jour-aal d Sccial Psychology 6(1):74-90.
Mileti,-Dennis S., Ronald Perry and David F. Gillespie 1975 "The analytical use of case study materials in the study of organizations," Seeiological Incuiry 45(4):72-50.
Milett, Dennis S., and Elwood M. Beck 1975 "Explatring evacuation symbolically: communication in crisis,"
Comunication Research 2(1):24-49.
Gillespie, David F., Ronald Ferry, Dennis S. Milett and Roy Lotz 1975 " Organizational tensions and decentralization: the interactive ef fect on memoer cccmitrent," International Journal d Group Tensians 5(2):26-37.
Perry, Ronald, David F. Gillespie and Dennis S. Milett 1974 " Collective stress and community transformation," E:. man Relations 27(8):767-788.
Mileti, Dennis S.
1974 " Change ratics in age-specific percent centriductions to fertil-ity: a new method with applications to the United States," Pac-ific SociologisAl Review 17(1):3-26. Firs,t Prize, student paper competition, Pacific Sociological Associaticn, 1974 Milett, Dennis S., and David F. Gil.lespie 1974 "An integrative approach to the study of organizational techncl-ogy, structure and behavior," Current Sociology 23(1):189-200.
Gillespie, David F., and Dennis S. M11eti 1974 " System stress and the persistsnce of emergent organizations,"
Socfoiogteal Inou i rv 44(2):111-119.
7
Mileti, Dennis S., and Larry Barnett 1972 "Nine demographic f actors and their relationship toward acortion legalization," Seeial Biology 19(2):43-50.
Journal Articles Aeolied Fecus (refereed)
Mileti, Dennis S.
1984 " Role conflict and abandonment in emergency workers," Emergency Management Review 2(1):20-22.
Mileti, Dennis S.
1984 " Earthquakes and human behavior," Eartheuake Scectra 1(1):89-1C6.
Mileti, Dennis S.
1983 "Public perceptiens of seismic hazards and critical f aci l ities,"
Bulletin sf fig Seimolecical Society gf, A-erica 72(6)l3-18.
Mileti, Dennis S., and Patricia Harvey 1978 " Correcting for the human factor in tornedo warnings," Disaster Precaredness 2(Feb ruary):S-9.
Haas, J. Eugene, and Dennis S. Milett 1977 "Sociceconomic and political consequences of earthquake predic- ~
tion," Jeurnal gf fig Physical Earth 2S(4):283-293.
Haas, J. Eugene, and Dennis S. Milett 1977 " Earthquake predicticn and its consequences," California Geology 30(7):147-157 -1977. Revised and reprinted in Ian Francisco -
20(4):60-68, 1978.
Haas, J. Eugene, and Dennis S. Milett 1976 " Earthquake prediction and other adjustments to earthquakes,"
Bulletin sf. fig Egg Zealand Society fgr, E a rthcu ak e Enciceering 9(4):183-194.
Snak Reviews (invited and refereed)
Milett, Dennis S.
1984 "A review of Social and Economic Aspects of Earthquakes by Bar-clay G. Jones and Miha Terrazevic (Eds.). Ithaca: Progran in Urban and Regional Studies, 1983." lian Emergencies and Of sasters (for-theorring).
Milett, Dennis S.
1982 "A rev iew of Unequal Care: Interorganizational Relations in Health Care by M. Milner, Jr. New York: Columbia University Press,1980." Social Forces 60(3):943-944 Mileti, Dennis S.
1982 "A review of Whistle Blewirg: Loyalty and Dissent in the Corpcra- ~
tion by Al an Westin (Ed.). New York: McGraw-Hi l 1, 1981." Soc i o l-ngy.: A Rev iew af, Hex Book s 7(2).
Milett, Dennis S.
1980 "A review of Aftermath: Communities After Natural Disasters by H.
Paul Friesema et al. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications,1979 and Af ter the Clean-up: Long Range Effects of Natural Disasters by Jan.es Wright and Peter Rossi et al. Eeverly Hills: Sage Publica-tions, 1979." Journal af, fig American Planning Association (Oc-tober):484-48S.
Milett, Dennis S.
1976 "A review of A !cciology of Organizations by J. Eldridge and A.
Cromb ie. New York: International Publications, 1975." Centemoc-r.Ar.y. sociology 5(6):784.
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1 Technical Reoerts (not refereed)
Milett, Dennis S.
198S Stress Imoacts d A Technoloofcal Emergencvr An Unebtru si ve Ind icators Study M. L iv ingston Train Dera il ment. New.Orl eans:
Lemle, Kel leher.
Milett, Dennis S.
1983 EMmAn Reseense Scenariqn, lag Enforcement Aeolicatiens And Media Imo l icat ion s. Sacramento: California Division of Mines and Geol-ogy.
Milett, Dennis S.
1982 Organizational Behavior And Interorganizational Relationst Imo 1 1-cations ff,r, Nuclear Power Pl ant Emergencies Aa1 Precaredness.
Oak Ricge, Tennessee: Oak Ridge National Laboratories.
Mileti, Dennis S., Donald M. Hartsough and Patti Madson 1982 .Tht Three M.ile Island Incidente A Studv d Behavioral Indicators af. Human Stress. Washington, D.C.: Shaw, Pittman, Potts and Trowbridge.
Milett, Dennis'S., and Arthur Svenson <
1981 Earthcuake Prediction-Warning Resocese E2r F-argenev organiza-tiens .t2 . tag Prediction Terminology. Van Nuys: Southern Califor-nia Earthquake Preparedness Project.
Hutton, Janice, and Dennis S. M11eti 1979 A n a l v s i s af. A d o o t i o n and Imo l e-ent a t i o n d Commu n f tv Land Mig Re-u l at t e n ? Inc Floodol ains. San Franciscc: Woodward-Clyde.
Haas, J. Eugene, and Dennis S. Milett 1976 Socioeconemic I caet af. Earthcuake P-ediction na Government.
Businen And Corrunitv. Bou l de r: Institute of Sehavioral Sci-ence.
M11ett, Dennis, S., and David F. Gillespie 1976 Interorgan f rational Rel ations and Comun f tv Serv ice Del ivery Svstems. Boul der: Center for Action Research.
Publicatiens .in Preceedings (nct refereed)
Milett, Dennis S.
1980 " Human response to earthquake prediction." Pp. 36-S6 in Walter Hays (Ed.). Preceedings d the Conferences an Eart5cuake Predic-liga Information. Menlo Park: U.S. Geological Survey. Paper pre-sented at the January, 1980 Conference on Earthquake Prediction Information, Los Angeles.
Milett, Dennis S., and Janice Hutton 1978 " Social aspects of earthqu akes." Pp. 179-192 in Proceedings af
- itg Second International Conference at M ic rozon at ien. San Fran-cisco
- National Science Foundattor. Paper presented at the Nover.sp-ber,1978 Cor.ference on the State of the Art in Microzonation for Earthquake Hazards Feduction, San Francisco.
t Milett, Dennis S. -
1978 " Socioeconomic effects of earthquake prediction on state policy."
Pp. 'in Proceedings af.tha National Conference an Earthouake Related Hazards. Lexington, Kentucky: Council of State Govern-
- ments. Speech presented 41 '.iv tioverrter,1977 Conference on State Policy for Earthquake Prediction Technology, Boulder.
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h Pubitshed Cceents (invited or refereed)
Milett, Dennis S.
1984 "The character of traffic in an emergency," Bulletin 6(1):4-S.
M11ett, Dennis S.
1983 "Disasterous narnings," Cant.(March):24,44,152.
Milett, Dennis S.
1982 " Hazards reduction works the next era," National Hazards Observer 6(4):1-2. Feprinted in Earthcuake In f ormat ion Bu l l et in 14(2):60, 1982.
- M11ett, Cennis S.
1982 " Sociological aspects of earthquake prediction," Earthcuake Information Bulletin 11(3):102-105.
Haas, J. Eugene, and Dennis S. Mileti 1977 " Earthquake prediction response," I. iga (January 24):63.
Mi'ett, Dennis S.
1977 " Earthquake predictions is it better rot to know?" Mesaf e 8(2):8-14.
Milett, Dennis S. <
1977 " Social hazards of earthquake p rediction," Science h 111(2):20-21.
Haas, J. Eugene, Thomas Crabek and Dennis S. M11ett 1976 "Individuel and organizational response to threat," Easa Ea ercen-s 111 1(4):247.
M11eti, Dennis S.
1976 " Social scientists and applied research," Ihg American befol-12s.121 11(4):220-221.
Milett, Dennis S.
1974 " Response to research and rational needs," Feotnotes 2(Octo-ber):6.
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O PROFESSIONAL PAPERS ED, PRESENTATIONS Conference Papers ,
Milett. Dennis S., and R. Gary Williams ,
1985 "A sociological perspective on the siting of hazardous waste f acti tties," paper presented to the Social and Economic Ef fects of Public Perceptions Session of the Sympostun' on Waste Manage-ment, Tucson: March.
Milett, Dennis S., Rick Hufnagel and David Gillespie 1984 " Regulation of the firm toward a theory of consequences," paper presented to the Complex Organizations Sessten of the American Sociological Association, San Antonto: August.
Milett, Dennis S.
1984 " Stress from risk uncertainties," invited paper presented to the Social Aspects of Risk Uncertainties Session of the Society for Risk Analysis, Knowxtlle: Octob er.
Mllett, Dennis S.
1984 " Social and political cbstacles to the use of nonstructural flood -
loss mittgation measures " paper presented to the An.erican Soct-ety of Civil Ergineers, San Francisco: Octob er.
Milett, Dennis S.
1984 "Why people take precautions against natural hazards," paper .
presented to the Conference on Enccuraging Sel f-Protection Eeha-v f or, Futgers' University: July.
Milett, Dennis S.
1984 " Sociology in litigation: appi tcatto 2 of disaster research,"
paper presented to the Sociology of Otsasters Session of the Pacific Sociological Associatten, Seattle: April.
Milett, Dennis S.
1983 " Social impact and use of earthquake prediction-warnings," paper presented to the US-Japan Seminar on Practical Approaches to Earthquake Predicticn and Warning, Tokyc: No v emb e r.
Frey, R. Scott, Thomas Oletz, Cennis S. P11 et t, and Debre Cornellus 1983 " Structural deterrif nants of community adopt 4n of the National Flood Insurance Program," paper p osented to the Fural Sociolost-cal Society, Lexington: July.
Milett, Dennis S., Donald M. Hartsough Patti Madson and Pick FWfnagel 1983 "The Three Mlle Island incidents a study of unobtrusive indica-tors of human stress," paper presented to the Ofsasters and Hazards Research Session of the Midwest Sociological Society, Kansas City: April.
Hufnagel, Rick, and Dennis S. Milett 1983 " Organizational and environmental catastrophes factors affecting organizational response to a predicted earthquake," piper presen-ttd to the Of sasters and Hazards Research Session of the Western Social $ctence Association, Alburquques April.
j Milett, Dennis S.
1982 " Earthquake predtet ton response: cul tu ral comparisons between Japan and the Unitec States," peror presented to the Otsaster Research Session of the International Sociological Associetton, Mexico City: August.
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O Milett, Cennis S.
1982 " Influencing corporate decisions on the use of oferozonation information," paper presented to the Third International Confer-ence on Microzonation, Seattle: June, ,
Milett, Dennis S.
1982 " Earthquake prediction and warnings: the human equation," paper presented to the Conference on Hazards Research, Policy Cevelop-ner,t, and Implementation Ircentives: Focus on Urban Earthquakes, Policy Fesearch Center at the Univers tty of Redlands, Redl ands:
June.
Milett, Dennis S.
1982 "PubI tc perception of seismic hazards," paper presentad to the Setsmological Society of Anerica, Anaheim: April.
W1111ars, Gary, Frank Santopolo and Dennis S. Milett 1980 " Perception of growth impacts in energy inpected communttles,"
paper presented to the Rural fociological Society, Ithaca: Au-gust.
Milett, Cennis S. .
1980 " Planning initiatives for seismic hazard mitigation," paper pre- '
sented to the conference en Social and Economic Impacts of Ear-thquakes on Critical Lifelines of the American Society of Civ11 Engineers, San Francisco: May.
Tlemer, Doug, and Dennis S. Milett 1980 "Interorganizational and structural determinants of decision r.aking," paper presented to the Session on Complex Organizations of the Midwest Sectolcgical foctety, Milwaukee.
W1111ars, Gary, Cennis S. Milett 1980 " Community growth and impacts," paper presented to the Western Social Science Association, Albuqurque: April.
Milett, Cannis S.
1980 " Human response to earthquake predictien," paper presented to the Status of Knowledge Sess ton of the Cc nference on Earthquake Prediction Information, Los Angeles: J anu a ry.
Williams, Gary, and Cennis S. Mileti 1979 " Perceptions of growth impacts in non-metropol t*(r Colcrado,"
paper presented tc the Impacts Sessica of the Conference on F*gtenal Migration Trends, !t. Lou ts: Octcber.
Milett, Cennis S., and Gary Williams 1979 " Resident parcpettons in growth impacted wetiern agricultural communities," paper presented te the Rural Sociological Society, Vermont: /ugust.
Gillespie, David F., Dennis S. Milett and Stan Ettzen 1979 "The opthenominality of organizational size," paper presented to the Sessten on Complex Orcenizattens of the Midwest Sociological Society, M11waukjee: April.
Milett, Dennis S., Janice R. Hutton and John Sorensen 1979 " Social f actors and response to earthquake prediction," paper presented to the International Sympostum on ' Earthquake Predic-tion, UNESCO, Paris: April.
Hutton, Janice R., Dennis S. Milett, and John Sorensen 1979 " Factors af fecting eartbr,uake warning system ef fectiveness,"
paper presented to t he International Sympostum on Earthquake Prediction, UNESCO, Parts: April.
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Sorensen, John, Janice R. Putton and Dennis S. Milett 1979 " Institutional rieragement cf risk infortration following earthquake predictions," paper presented to the Intert ctional Syrposita on Earthquake Prediction, UNESCO, Paris: April.
Milett, Dennis S., and Jantce Hutton 1978 " Social aspects of earthquakes," paper presented to the i State of the Art Session of the Second International Conference on Microzenation, San Frarcisco: Nov emb e r.
Milett, Dennis S., and David F. Gillespie 1978 " Organizational size, complexity and decision makir ;," paper '
presented to the Organizations Session cf the Anierican Sociologt-cal Association, San Francisco: Septerter.
, Gillespie, Devid F., and Cennis S. Milett 1978 " Corporate ofze as work," paper presented to the Organizatten of Work Session of the American Sectological Association, San Fran-cisco: Septent a r.
. Milett, Dennis S., and Cavid F. G111espie 1978 " Action postulates in organization-environment relations," paper "
- presented tc the Organizations-Environment Session of the Midwest Sociological Society, Omaha
- April. i Gillespie, David F., and Cennis S. Milett 1978 " Size and organizaticna' differentiaticn," paper presented to the Formal and Complex Organizations Session of the Pacific Sociolo-gical Asscetation, Spokane: April.
M11eti, Cennis S., and Petricia Harvey 1977 "Correctirg for the human fcctor in tornado warnings," paper ,
presented to the Conference on Severe Local Stnen,5 of the Amert-can Meteorological Scciety, Omaha: October.
Pflett, Cennis S., and Cavid F. Gillespie 1977 " Organization and environment adaptat f or-r.cntpulaticn," paper presented to the Organizational Relations Session of the An,erican l Sociological Asscciation, Chicago: Sep tent e r.
Hutton, Janice P., and Cennis S. Milett 1977 "The uses and abuses of scener tot in policy research," paper presented tc the Social Policy !ession cf the An.er'icen $cciolcgt-cal Associatten, Ch'cago: Septent e r.
Gillespie, David F., and Dennis S. Milett 1977 " Organizational growth and nenegertal effletency," paper pre >on-
- ted te the Sccial Organization / Formal / Complex Session of the Pacific Sociclogical Association, Sacramento
- April.
Milett, Cennis S., and David F. Gillespie 1977 " Organizational mentptlet. ton and adaptation to complex env f ron-monts," paper presented to the Complex Crganizations Session of the Midwest fociological Sectety, Minneapolis: April.
Gillespie, David F., Dennis S. Mileti and J. Eugene Haas 1976 " Size and structuro in complex orgentzations," paper presented to the Organizational Change Session e f the Aroerican Sociological Association, Few Ycrk City: August.
Mileti, Dennis ..
1976 " Learning theory and disaster warning response," paper presented to the Issues in Env trorn' ental Analysts Session to the Araerican Sociological Assoetetton, New York City: August.
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O Haas, J. Eugene, and Dennis S. Vilett 1976 " Consequences of earthquak e prediction on other adjustments to earthquakes," paper presented tc the Australian Academy of Scien-ce, Canberra: May.
Milett, Dennis S., and J. Eugene Haas -
1976 "A methodology for future collective events," paper presented to the Collective Eehavior Session of the Midwest Sociological to-ciety, St. Louts: April.
Gillespie, David F., and Cennis S. Nileti 1976 " Operations technology and organizatteral structu re," paper pre-sented to the Forral Organt:ations Session of the Midwest Socic-legical Scciety, St. Lotis: April.
Haas, J. Eugene, and Dennis S. M11ett 1976 " Assessing the constopt oces o' (trthquak e predicticn," paper presented to the Social Fisk Session of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Bosten: Feb ru a ry.
Milett, Dennis S., and David F. Gillespie 1975 " Technological creerto'r ty in organization-environment rela-tiorr," paper presented to the Fornel er se n!:atic r s !*s sion of -
the American Sociclogical Asscciation, San Francisco: August.
M*1ett, Dennis S., and Casic F. Gillespie 1975 "A resolution of inconsistencies between size, cceplexity and the administrative _ccmponent in organizations," paper presented to the Formal Organizations Sessicn of the Midwest Scciological Society, Chicago: April.
Milett, Dennis S., and David F. Gillespie 1975 "Technelegy and the study of organizat'(ns," paper presented to the Formal Crganizations Session of the Pacific Sociclogical Asscciaticn, Victoria: April.
M11ett, Cenris S., and Dasid F. Gillespie 1975 "An interact f u redel fo r o rten ir,t ion-cnv ironment rel ations,"
paper presented it the Interorganizational Relations Session of the Midwest Sociological fociety, Cmaha April.
Mileti, Cennis S., and David F. Gillespie 1974 "A fcroalizatien of organizat'cn-cns Ironnent dependencies," paper presented to the Formal Organizatfor.s S, ssicr of the Facific
!cciological Associaticn, San Jose: k'a rc h.
Farhar, Barcara, and Cennis S. M11eti 1974 "Value and role issues for the involved sccial scientist," paper presented to the Applied Session c f the Pacific Sociological Assceiatten, San Jose: M a rc h.
Milett, Dennis S.
1973 "Drowing: a communications disease," paper presented to tie Mass Consonications and Public Cpinion Session of the American Sccic-logical Association, New Ycrk City: August.
Mileti, Dennis S., and Sigmund Krane 1973 " Response to impending system stress," paper pretented to the What Cc Ue Know Session on Human Behav f or in Disaster of the American Scciological Associcticn, Mew York City: August.
Vilett, Dennis S.
1973 "A paradign* and sociology of knowledge for theerf es of natural law," paper p < >ented to the Theory session of the Midwest $ccic-logical Sectety, Milwaukee: April.
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Milett, Dennis S.
1972 " Response to hazards warnings," paper presented to the Organiza-tional and Community Response to Cisaster Serrinar at the Otsaster Research Center of the Ohio State University, Colurrbus: July.
Speeches Amt Ggait Lectures
" Social aspects of risk," Risk Analysis Seminar, Departnent of Industrial Engineering, Stanford University: February, 1985.
" Communic attrig engineering teforciation to pubi te of ficials," Soctel App 11-cattens Sesstoa, Earthquake Engineering Fesearch Institute, Seattle: Feb-ruary, 198S.
" Social and ;< 1 f t ical obstacles to the use of nonstructural ficod loss mitigation ceasures," Anerican Sectety for Civil Engineers, San Francisco:
Cctcber, 1984
" Warnings: applying reisearch tr the private sector," Plenary Sess ton on <
Hazards Rescarch and Management: Assessr..ents of a Maturing Field, Natural Hazards Research Applicaticns Workshop, Eculder: July, 1984
" Human respor. . N vmergencies," Ernergency Preparedness Executive S'eminar for County Corvntssionert, of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvanta, GPU Nuclear Corpcration, Harrisburg: March, 1984
"~he uses of earthqu Ae predict icn-warnings," Colloqiun en Earthquake Pre-diction Research in the US, Ea rthc.uake Research I ntitute, University cf Tokyo: Noverrber, 1983.
" Human response in disasters," American Red Cross, Mile High Chapter, Sculder Region, Eculder: July, 1983.
" Integrated emergency raanagenent: challenges and opportunttles," Plenary Sesston of the Natural'Hararcs Rosearch Ap;1 tcat ions Workshop, Eculder:
July, 1983.
"Public response to flood disasters," Conference on *.be Neec for Teamwork in Manabi ng Flood Hazards, Association of State Floodplair Panager, Sacr 4-
- n. ento: April, 1983.
" Natural hazards, disasters and pubite policy," Environcental Management Institute, University of Southern California, Los Angeles: April, 1982.
" Myths of disaster respense," Earthquake Planning Conference for Sustress and Industry, Les Ange tts: Pey, 1982.
"Commu n ic at i r.g lessens learnod fron ancial science rescar th c.r. r e r-thquakes," Workshop of Identifying and Disseminating Lessons Learnet free Recent Earthquakes," Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Les Altos:
December, 1982.
" Social causes of earthquake predictien-warning responses irrplications for the design of California's warning syster. and information tissemination,"
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Scathern Cal t fornia Earchquake Prt partdnoss Proj ect, Van Nuys: Cctober, 1981.
" Assessment of research on natural hazards: abat.have we learned and what problems demand further attention," Natural Hazards Fesearch Appl fcations Workshop, Eculder: July, 1981.
"Otsaster reconstruction: p atte rns to gu ide p l annint,,," Governor's Tesk Force for Earthquake Emergency Preparedness, Conmittee on Long Range Fecon-structicn, Sacremento, July, 1981.
" Soc 1o-cu l tu ral d 1mensiorit cf earthqueke risk," Governor's Erer;ency Tesk Force on Earthquakes, General Assenbly, Sacran: ento: May, 1981.
"Interorganizattenal relaticns and serv tce delivery systems," Fealth Scien-ces Center, University or Colorade, Cenver: Cctcb er, 1980.
" Social response to earthquake prediction: local policy issues," Southern '
California Emergercy Services 6:,oc1atton, Mcotebello: Feb ru a ry, 1960.
" Human response to vettla r-borne hazards warnings," Department of Atmos-pheric S:1ences, Colorado State University: C<.te b e r, 1979.
" Natural hazards, disasters and sccial research," Lepartment of Sociolcgy, Univerwity of Cenver: Cbcenter, 1980, 1979.
"Measurin5 implementat ion of public policy for ficodplain land use con-trols," Natural Hazards Research Applicetions Workshop, Bouldr: August, 1978.
"Sociceconornic effects of earthquake predic t 'cn ar d state policy," Confer-ence on State Policy for Earthquake Pr edicticn Te<.hnology, Sct i der: No v ern-b e r, 1977.
"Popu l ation, rescurces and policy for sccial change," College of Na' Arf F..scurces, Colorado State University: Se pten b e r,1977; Feb ru a ry,1978; F(t r u e ry, 1980.
"The behavic e of governr.ent and ccer pc rate organf zaticris in an earthquikt prediction," American Society for Pubi te Adtrintstration, Colorado Ctegrer, Denver: April, 1976.
"The social and econonic aspects of scientifically credible earthquake predictions," California State Seminar on Emergency Preparedness and Ear-thquake Predicticn, Palm Springs: June, 1976.
" Preparing to make use of earthquake pr ec'ictions," Er ergency Pre [ e r ariness Corr. mission for t6s County and Cities of Los Angeles, Montebello: Feb ru a ry, 1976.
"The social organization of hazard warntng systems," Engineering Foundat'cn Conference on Cecision Making for Netural Hazards, Pacific Grove March, 1976.
16
"Srtefing on the i tkely soctel and econorric impacts of earthquake predic-tion," Governor's Conference Foom, Sacrarrento: May, 1975; Mayor's Conferen-ce Room, Los Angeles: Cctob er, 1975.
" Social, economic and legal aspects of earthquake prediction," General Assernbly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Granoble:
Septent e r, 1975.
" Earthquake p redictioei i < 't 4 impi tcatto:s for emergency preparedness,"
Center for Cominurity Studies, Tckyo: Se p tent er, 1975.
" Social impacts of earthquake prediction: trrplications for pol fcy," Cali-fornia Water and Power Earthquake Engineering Forum, San Frarcisco: April, 1975.
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OTHER PROFESSIONAL SECVICE Oreanizer Anst Presider Session on Nucleer Power, Third International Congress on Emergencies, Washington, D.C.: May, 1985; session on Appited Sociology, Pacific Sccio-logical Asscciation, Seattle: April, 1984; !ession on Theoretical Asses-sments, Western $ccial Science Association, San Otego: April, 1984; Session on Methodo1cgical Approaches in the Study of Health Care Celivery Systenis, Western Social !cierco Assectation San Diego: April, 1964; !ession en Erthquake Hazard Reducticn: Is the Nattenal Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program l'etitirt f % Congressionti Pandate, Seventh Annual Workshop on Natural Hazards Research Applicaticns, Boulcer: July,1982; Session on Disasters and Cataclysms: Can Sociology Help, Pacific Soctological Assoc'a-tion, San Diego: April,1982; Sessten on Collective Behavior, American Sociological Association, New York: August, 1980; Session on Complex Crga-ntzations, Pacific Sociological Association, San Francisco: April, 1980; Session on Corrplex Organizations, Western Social Science Association, Term- '
p e, 1976.
Discussant Session on Theoretical Assessn:ents, Western Social Science Associaticn, San Diege April, 1984; Sessten on Sec ietal Respcnw to Hazards, American Sociological Associetion, San Antonfor August,1984; Session on Public Response to Earth Science Infornatfor., Naturel Hazards Research Appi tca-tions Workshop, Eculder: July, 1980; Session on Warning Systerrs, National Conference on Natural Fazards, Boulder: J u n e, 1976 Session on Warning Systems, National Conference on Natural Fazards, Boulder: J u l y, 1975;
!*ssion cr. C tsester Felief end War ning Systerrs, National Ccnference on Natural Fazards, Estes Park: June, 1973.
Particicant Panel on Disaster Research Its Funding and Future, American Sociciogical Association, San Antento: August,1984; Review Panel, Corresponding Uenber, Task Grcup on Social and Economic Aspects of Earthquakes, Maticnal Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Conentssion on Sociotechnical Sys-tems, Washington, D.C.: 1982; Workshnp on CisseminM int Lessons leerned from Recent Earthquakes, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Los Altos: December, 1982; Tennessee Valley Authority F1 cod Plain Evaluatten Panel, Boulder: No v emb er, 1982; Earthquake Prediction Warning Task Fcrce Workshop, Southern California Earthquake Preparedness Project, Astlomar:
December,1981; Syntostum on Earthquake Prediction, Preparedness and Human Response, San Fernando: June, 1976; Seminar on Disaster Research, Colorado State University, Fcrt Collins: February,1975; tyn4csiuri on Conplex Orga-nizattens: Fesearch and Applicaticns, Western Social Scienco Association, El Paso April, 1974 Editorshfos Corresponding Editor, Cr;anizations Anzi occucations Newsletter of the Amer-ican Sociological Association, Westorn Region,1984-preser.t; Ar.sociate Feitor for social science, Eartheu ske Soectra. Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Fesearch Institute, 1984-1987; Corresponding Editor on Hazards 18
e and Disaster, Environ-ental Scciology. Newsletter of the Secticn on Enviro-nmental Sociology of the American Sociological Association,1981-date; Guest editor, special issue on Environmental Stress, Threat and Social System Response, P_an E-ercencies 1(4):247-346, 1976.
Testiment .
Nuclear Regulatory Conmission in the matter of emergency planning at the Shoreham nuclear reactor, Suffolk: December,1983 through June,1984;
- Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the matter of emergency planning at the Wolf Creek generating station, Bu rl ing ton, Kansas
- J anu ary, 1984; Nuclear j Regulatory Commission in the matter of pre-emergency public educaticn and information for emergency planning at the Waterford Three nuclear reactor, New Orleans: February,1983; Suffolk County Lostslature, State of New Yo rk, in the matter of emergency planning at the Shoreham nuclear reactor, Su f-fald: J anu ary, 1983; Nuclear Regulatory Commission to the matter of emerg-ency planning at the Diablo Canyon nuclear reactor, San Lufs Cbtsbo: Janu-ary,1982; Senate Subcommittee on Science, Technology and Space in the matter of the National Earthquake Hazards Feduction Act, Washington, D.C.: -
April, 1980; Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the matter of the impact of floating nuclear plants on tourist behavior, Sethesda: May,1977 and July, 1978.
Legislative And Program keyf ews Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, U.S. Congerssional Panel, Federal
, Erergency Managecent Agency, 1983-82; Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program of the U.S. Geological Survey,1982; Final Regulations for Floodplain Managen.ert and Protection of Wetlands, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Federal Register 176(45):59520-59538, 1980; Applied Research Program Eva-luation, National Science Fcundation, 1979-78.
Presosal Reviews Societal Fespense Program of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National Science Foundation, 1985-81; Div ts ton of Policy Research and Analysis, National Science Foundation,1983; Sociology Program, National !ctence Foundation, 1982-81; Design Fesearch Program, National Science Foundatfor, 1982; Division of Problem Focused Research, National Science Foundatten, 1980; Division of International Prograrrs, National Science Foundation, 1978; Otvision of Advanced Environmental Research and Technology, ' National Science Foundation, 1978-76.
Ar+f ele Reviews thagg Re1 ations, 1985-83, 1978-77; Sociof og feal Persseettyes (Pac 1ffe &
cfalecieal Review), 1984; Seef31 Fo rc es. 1980-79; Sociologv And Seeial Research. 1983-81, 1979-78, 1976; Ha Social Setence Jeurnal,1985, 1981-77; Hg Sociological r arteriv.
m 1975; Jeurnal of. .the American Pl annine Associa-linn,1985; Ceviant Behavior. 1983; Elst Analvsts. 1983; Rg Environmental Professional. 1983-82; Bu l l et in sf. ff.a seismo l og ic al Secietv of. America.
1982; Soe f ological Focus,1980; P_isa Emergencies, 1978,1976-75; Po11cv An al ys t s, ' 1978; Cu r rent Resea rch ,in E artheu ak e P red iction, 1984; P_gn Emergencies And Disasteas, -1985.
l 19
4 g Reviews L. Lave and D. Epple, " Future Sbenarios," Chapter 21 in R. W. f(ates (Ed.).
Climate Impact Assessment? Studies d .thg Interaction d Climate Ag Scci-31y Geneva, for the International Council of Scientific Union's Scientific i
Cosetttee on Problems of the Env tronment,1982; itdy sn Eartheuake Hazards Information Disseminattent Darleston. South Cirolina. Reston for the U. S.
Geological Survey,1982.
Decartment Ag University Service i
College Schol arship Committee, 1985-84; Cepartant Executive Comittee, 1984-82, 1980-77; Department Graduate Affairs Committee, 1985-84, 1977-74; Department Five-Year Review Committee,1982; Cepartn.ent Comprehensive Exa-mination Committee, 1984-75; Department,4d hoc Committee on Research Space, 1983; Cepartment Evaluation of Ind'ependent Study Courses,1978; Copartment Faculty Search Committee, 1985-84; College Search Committee for Department Cha i r, 1985-84; University Committee on Ethnic Studies, 1976-74; University -
J Committee on Latin American Studies, 1975-74
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- i i
e R?',2iING Courses Taught (undergraduate)
Introduction to Sociology -
Complex Organizations Demographic Processes and Social Change Historical Sociological Theory Research Methods Sociology of Hazards and Otsasters Courses Inght (graduate)
Advanced Quantitative Analysis Multiple Regression and Path Analysis Research Methods I I
Research Methods II
' Demography and Population i Complex Organizations ,
j Graduate Theses and Dissertattens Chair, Ph.D. Of ssertation Committee, 6 Memeer, Ph.D. Committees,12 Chair, M.A. Thesis Committees, 4 Member, M. A. Committees,12 Student Evaluations Ranked as excellent by most students in most courses; evaluation summaries are available upon request.
3 Teaching Awards Alumni Fonor Faculty Award, Colorado State University, Alumni Association, for Academic Year 1983-1984; Cited for excellence by the Dean, College of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences for Academic Year 1977 '978.
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Attachment 4 4
WEATHER CONDITIONS USED FOR THE CALCULATION OF SIREN SOUND COVERAGE AT NIGHT e IN THE SHEARON HARRIS EPZ.
Temperature: 71*F (modal value)*
4 Barometric Pressure: 29.67 in. Hg. (average)*
Relative Humidity: 86% (average)*
Stability Class ~: F (average)*
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Wind Speed 1 mph (mode)*
7 Wind Direction: SSW (mode)**
4
- Based upon distributions of observations at the site for 4:00 a.m. in July from 1973 through 1984.
- Based upon 12 years of June through August observations at-the site for Stability F, midnight to-5:00'a.m.
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't 4 Attachment S i ',
SIREN SOUND LEVELS OUTDOORS AND NUMBERS OF HOUSES EXPOSED TO EACH LEVEL IN THE SHEARON HARRIS EPZ (For Summer nighttime meteorological conditions in Attachment 4)
Nominal Siren Sound Level # of Sound Level Zones Outdoors Houses -
>105 dB 112 d8 206 100-105 102 178 95-100 97 337 90-95 92 800 2 x 85-90 90 8 80-85 + 85-90; 2 x 75-80 + 85-90 88 199 85-90 87 1256 2 x 80-85 85 120 2 x 75-80 + 80-85 84 10 75-80 + 80-85; 3 x 70-75 + 80-85 83 221 80-85; 3 x 75-80 82 1826 2 x 70-75 + 2 x 75-80 81 5 2 x 75-80; 3 x 70-75 + 75-80 80 376 2 x 70-75 + 75-80 79 79 70-75 + 75-80 78 454 75-80; 3 x 70-75 77 All 2 x 70-75 75 146 70-75 72 233
<70 67 62 l
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Attachment 6 FRACTIONS OF HOMES WITH VARIOUS OUTDOOR-TO-INDOOR SOUND ATTENUATIONS AND INDOOR BACKGROUND NOISE LEVELS Attenuation Outdoors-to- Background Sub- Indoors 6/
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Noise at Group Description Fractions dB Bed
- 1. Homes with No Air Conditioning; 0.356 1/ 12 40 7/
Windows open and fan operating Homes with Window Air Conditioning (A/C) and all Windows closed (Total 0.302) 1/
A/C In Bedroom (0.16) 2/
- 2. Bedroom Storms open or absent 1.0 x .16 3/ 0.16 26 49 8/
Bedroom Storms closed - -
0 3/
A/C In Adjacent Room (0.142) 2/
- 3. Bedroom Storms open or absent
.142 x .25 4/ 0.036 26 39 9/
- 4. Bedroom Storms closed
.142 x .75 4/ 0.106 30 39 9/
l Homes with Central Air Conditioning and all Windows Closed (Total 0.342) 1/
I A/C Cycled on (0.106) 5/ ,
- 5. Bedroom Storms Open or absent 0.106 x .25 4/ 0.026 26 28 1/
- 6. Bedroom Storms closed 0.106 x .75 4/ 0.08 30 28 7/
l A/C Cycled Off (0.236) 5/
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- 7. Bedroom Storms Opened 0.236 x .25 4/ 0.059 26 13 1/
- 8. Bedroom Storms Closed 0.236 x .75 4/ 0.177 30 13 1/
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a Notes to Attachment 6 1/ U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 1980: Summary Tape File 3, North Carolina, for Enumeration Districts and Cen-sus Tracts within Shearon Harris EPZ, Table 120.
2/ Ibid; Envirosphere telephone communications with air con-ditioner manufacturers and regional distributors, August 1985.
3/ Installation of the A/C in the window precludes the clo-sure of the storm windows, if any.
4/ Observations at the houses in which measurements were made in the Harris EPZ (see note (6)), plus available informa-tion (Envirosphere telephone communications with storm window retailers and energy conservation consultants in the Raleigh, N.C. area, August 1985), indicate that, on average, about 25% of the houses with storm windows have a bedroom storm window open all summer.
5/ CP&L analyses of air conditioner operation as a function of time of day (June 1985).
6/ Measurements obtained by HMM in 13 homes within the Harris EPZ, plus published data in:
- a. Anon, " Noise Environment in Urban and Sub-urban Areas", Report FT/TS-26, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Hous-ing and Urban Development, March, 1968.
- b. Anon, " House Noise Reduction Measurements for use in Studies of Aircraft Flyover Noise," SAE Aerospace Information Report AIR 1081, Society of Automotive Engineers, 2 Pennsylvania Plaza, New York, NY 10001, Oct., 1971.
- c. Driscoll, D.A., J.P. Dulin, Jr., and D.N.
Keast, " Attenuation of Northern Dwellings to a Linear Source of Noise", an oral paper presented at the 95th Congress of The Acoustical Society of America, Providence, R.I., May, 1978.
7/ Measurements made by HMM at houses in the Harris EPZ.
8/ Measurements made by HMM at houses in the Boston area.
9/ Measurements (note 8) less 10 dB for typical loss from one room to an adjacent room in residential buildings.
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