ML20081E240

Affidavit of Rl Goble Re Preparation of Advanced Life Support Patients for Evacuation

ML20081E240
Person / Time
Site:	Seabrook
Issue date:	07/31/1990
From:	Goble R CLARK UNIV., WORCESTER, MA
To:
Shared Package
ML20081E239	List: ML20081E234 ML20081E240 ML20081E243 ML20081E247 ML20081E251
References
OL, NUDOCS 9008070279
Download: ML20081E240 (5)

Text

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t 's 3 .c UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COKMISSION ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD Before the Administrative Judgest Ivan W. Smith, Chairman Dr. Richard F. Cole Kenneth A. McCollom

)

In the Matter of ) Docket Hos. 50-443-OL

) 50-444-OL PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY )

OF NEW }{ AMPS} LIRE, ff AL. )

)

(Scabrook Station, Units 1 and 2) ) July 31, 1990 ,

)

AFFIDAVIT OF ROBERT L. GOBLE I, Robert L. Goble, hereby depose and state:

1. I am a Roscarch Associate Professor at Clark University in Worcester, Massachusetts. My professional I qualifications are a matter of record in this proceeding.

2. My affidavit addresses an issue defined by the Licensing Board concerning the preparation of advanced life support (ALS) patients for evacuation; specifically it addressos question 4) as defined by the board.

"Would uncertaintics in the timos available to prepare ALS patients for evacuation produce ETEs that are too inaccurate to be useful in the action of protective action options?"

9000070279 900731 PDR ADOCK 05000443.

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3. The main points, discussed in more detail below, may be summarized as follows:

(i) Evacuation timo estinatos (ETE's) specific to special facilities such as hospitals are useful, indood necessary, in making effectivo protective action recommendations (PAR's) which will maximizo doso savings for recidents of those facilitics.

(ii) ETE's are specifically nooded for ALS patients for whom the PAR must also incorporato a judgment about the risks of ovacuation.

(iii) Preparation and loading timo is an essential component to be considorod in developing the ETE's for ALS patients.

(iv) Although uncertaintion are always present in developing ETE's, reasonable and attainabic accuracy in the estimatos will produce results which can make a difference in the choice of PAR across a broad spectrum of accident situations.

(v) Tho use of facility specific ETr's for ALS patients to develop PAR's for them will not heavily burden the omorgency planning process; it will help assure that the resources already allocated to those patients are used offectively.

4. There are two reasons why suitably disaggregated f acility specific ETE's are nooded for ALS patientst (1) The facilitics in question offer nubstantially better sheltering protection than is assumed in tormulating

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PAR's for the general population in the vicinity of the Seabrook plant. Consequently, it may well happen that there will be doso' savings if residents of the facility shelter while the general public is evacuating. This could be true for both ALS and non ALS residents.

(ii) The non-radiological risks of an evacuation may be substantially greater for ALS patients than the very small risk assumod in making PAR's for the general population. As described in the af fidavit of John Bonds, the choice of protectivo action for an ALS patient is best mado by appropriato medical staff who can weigh the radiological risk against the non-radiological risks. The decision might be very different doponding on whether the throatoned radiation exposure imposes a small increased risk of cancor or whether it threatens an immediato radiation-caused injury or death. It is vital to note, contrary to the implication in the Bonds affidavit, that thoro may well be radiological risks in ovbcuation as well as in sheltering. What is rolovant for protective action deciaion-making is to estimate the doso savings, if any, to be obtained by evacuation vorous sheltering. ETE's are an essential ingredient in datormining such doso savings. It is also worth noting that because of the good sheltering capabilitics of the hospitals under consideration, the ETE must be disaggregated into times spent indoors and timos spent outdoors.

5. preparation and loading timos differ from facility to facility and are in dispute. Estimates in the various 1

affidavits range from 45 minutes to over 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />. In all casos they are a significant fraction of typical ETE's for the ,

general public of roughly 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br />. As noted above, indoor and outdoor times are needed.

6. The details provided in the various affidavits makes it cicar that it should be feasible to make realistic estimates for the various components of evacuation timo including patient preparation and loading, and that the estimates can be detailed enough to make the necessary distinction betwoon indoor and outdoor activities.

7. Contrary to the implication of the callendrello e affidavit, for the ETE's including preparation and loading to matter in choosing PAR's, it is only necessary that they be within the longest reasonably anticipated ETE for the general public, since the immediato question will be whether to ovacuate the patients along with the general evacuation or after it. The Callendrollo affidavit shows that there is considerable margin for evacuation of ALS patients to occur in the same time frame as that of the general public in many accident situations.

8. Thus even with uncertainties in the preciso values for the indoor and outdoor components of ALS ETE's, it should be possible over a broad range of accident situations to calculato

.cstimated dose reductions obtainable 1) from trying to evacuato a patient while the main evacuation is going on, 11) from waiting-(sholtored) until the general public has completed its ovacuation, or lii) from not evacuating at all. The results of

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,r c such calculations would serve as a useful basis for PAR decision-making; they will depend strongly on the nature of the accident situation and on the ETE values used.

9. Considerable effort in the planning process addresses the noods of ALS patients in a potential accidents the effort includes special provisions for ambulancos, for proptration and loading, and for the medical evaluation of risks. It is clearly appropriato to devote the additional effort nooded to obtain the information to use those resources offectively, to bo prepared to decido under particular ranges of accident conditions whether it is bottor to entor the main evacuation stream, to evacuato later, or not to evacuate the patient at all.

Signed under the pains and penalties of perjury this 3 f._J./

day of b , 1990, fobert R

L. Gob)ox;4rxas 1930n yd/1 PJ d.

hickey Pel>hc Gfres 3/9/95-