ML20065P632

Testimony of KT Erikson & Cole on Contention EP 5A Re Role Conflict

ML20065P632
Person / Time
Site:	Shoreham File:Long Island Lighting Company icon.png
Issue date:	10/12/1982
From:	Cole S, Erikson K SUFFOLK COUNTY, NY, YALE UNIV., NEW HAVEN, CT
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ML20065P624	List: ML20065P619 ML20065P632 ML20065P640 ML20065P644
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ISSUANCES-OL, NUDOCS 8210260239
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 82 FCT 22 Pj-Before'the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board -

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I I In the Matter of )

) Docket No. 50-322 (OL)

LONG ISLAND LIGHTING COMPANY ) (Emergency PlannincJ

) Proceedings)

(Shorenam Nuclear Power Station, )

Unit 1) )

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DIRECT TESTIMONY OF DR. KAI T. ERIKSON AND DR. STEPHEN COLE ,

ON BEHALF OF SUFFOLK COUNTY REGARDING CONTENTION EP 5A [ ROLE CONFLICT]

- OCTOBER 12, 1982 B210260239 B21012 PDR ADOCK 05000322 T PDR _

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1 Summary Outline of Direct Testimony of Dr. Kai T. l Erikson and Dr. Stephen Cole on Behalf of Suffolk County l Regarding Contention EP 5A i

In Contention EP SA, Suffolk County contends that l LILCO has not addressed the question of whether offsite person-nel (both LILCO employees and workers from offsite agencies) upon whom its Plan relies for emergency services in the event of a radiological emergency, would respond promptly. The County's concern is focused on the possibility that such per-sonnel would decide to attend first to the safety of their families rather than immediately reporting for emergency duty.

If significant numbers of emergency workers resolve the con-flict between their family duties and emergency duties in this manner, LILCO cannot provide an adequate emergency response, thus failing to meet the requirements of 10~CFR 50. 47(b)(1),

(2),(3),(8),(12) and (15) and 10 CFR Part 50, Appendix E.

Suffolk County has conducted surveys of volunteer firemen (including some from Mutual Aid fire districts upon which LILCO intends to rely in the event cf a radiological i

emergency) and schoolbus drivers, to examine the extent of role

, conflict among those workers and the manner in which they intend to resolve that conflict in the event of a radiological emergency. A substantial number of both groups stated in re-

sponse to survey questions that they would first take care of

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their families and would not be available for immediate emer-gency duty. The County contends that unless LILCO conducts similar studies for all personnel upon whom its Plan relies for l

l ito cmargency reoponco and incorporatse the reculto of such surveys into its plan; there can be no assurance that there l will be an adequate response to an emergency.

EXHIBITS ATTACHMENT 1 Resume of Dr. Kai T. Erikson ATTACHMENT 2 Survey for Volunteer Firemen ATTACHMENT 3 Survey for Schoolbus Drivers ATTACHMENT 4 Responses of Emergency Personnel to a Possible Accident at the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant (Draft) i l

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION I

BEFORE'THE ATOMIC SA*ETY AND LICENSING BOARD

)

In the Matter of )

)

LONG ISLAND LIGHTING COMPANY ) Docket No. 50-322 0.L.

) (Emergency Planning (Shoreham Nuclear Power ) Proceedings)

Station; Unit 1) )

)

DIRECT TESTIMONY OF DR. KAI T. ERIKSON ON BEHALF OF SUFFOLK COUNTY REGARDING CONTENTION EP 5A--ROLE CONFLICT Q. Please state your name.

A. Dr. Kai T. Erikson.

Q. Dr. Erikson; what is the purpose of this testimony?-

A. The purpose of this testimony is to address contention EP 5A, which states as follows:

EP 5: OFFSITE RESPONSE ORGANIZATION AND ONSITE RESPONSE AUGMENTATION Suffolk County contends that LILCO has failed

, to provide reasonable assurance that onsite l

assistance from offsite agencies will be forthcoming in the event of a radiological emergency at the Shoreham site (see, e.g.,

Plan at 5-8 and 6-15). LILCO has therefore not met the requirements of 10 CFR $$50.47 (b)(1),(2),(3),(8),(12) and (15), 10 CFR Part 50; Appendix E, Item A, and NUREG 0654. In addition, LILCO has not demonstrated ade-quately that it will be able to augment its onsite emergency response staff in a timely manner (see Plan; Ch. 5). LILCO has also, l

therefore, failed to meet the requirements of 10 CFR $50.47 (b)(1) and (2). Thus:

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A. It does not appear that LILCO has addressed or analyzed the pos-sibility that offsite personnel and/or onsite augmenting personnel expected to report to the Shoreham site for emergency duty; would fail to report (or report in a timely manner) because of conflicting family (or other) duties that would arise in the event of a radiologi-cal emergency.

In particular; I will discuss the failure of LILCO's -

Emergency Plan to take into account the possibility that off-site agency emergency workers and LILCO personnel, whose presence upon request is assumed in the LILCO Plan; will not in fact report for duty in the event of an emergency. My testimo-ny will primarily focus on two matters: (1) the likely response of emergency personnel to the conflict that may arise between their emergency duties and their feelings of obligation to their own families' safety; and (2) the need for LILCO to ana-lyze such response and account for it; in order to demonstrate adequately that it will be able to augment its onsite staff in a timely manner.

It Background l Q. Please state your occupation.

A. I am a professor of sociology at Yale University and edi-tor of the Yale Review. I have also had a joint appointment in the American Studies Program since 1968.

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t Q. In the field of sociology, do you have any particular areas in which you specialize?

A. For the first part of my professional career; I concentra-ted on the study of deviant behavior. In more recent years, I have focussed increasingly on human communities in general and

~on human reactions to moments of crisis in particular. I have

! provided consulting services on these subjects in the context of Nuclear Regulatory Commission hearings relating to the Three Mile Island, Diablo Canyon, and Indian Point Nuclear Power Plants. My professional qualifications and experience are set forth in more detail in the resume which is Attachment 1 here-to.

II. Role Conflict i

O. Dr. Erikson, have you reviewed LILCO's on-site emergency response plan?

A. Yes, I have.

O. In your opinion, does the LILCO plan provide reasonable assurance that LILCO will be able to augment its on-site staff 1

! in a timely manner in the event of an emergency?

A. No it does not.

Q. What is the basis for your opinion?

A. Chapter 5 of the LILCO plan, particularly at section 5.2 l and Table 5-1, discusses the augmentation of LILCO emergency personnel in the event of a radiological emergency. A r, amber l

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l of LILCO personnel who may be offsite at the time of an accident are expected; under the plan; to report to the Shoreham site within specific time periods. In addition; the plan at pages 5-8 and 6-16 indicates that LILCO intends to rely upon personnel from offsite agencies to provide onsite support in the event of an emergency. Specifically, the plan makes reference to volunteer fire departments; such as the Wa ding River Fire Department, which are expected to provide necessary fire protection, ambulance and rescue services on-site, and*

transportation from the site to off-site locations. My opinion is that those portions of the plan; and the plan in general for that matter, do not address the serious question of Whether it is reasonable to assume that people Who are off-site will move i

on-site to perform the duties that are described in th's plan.

The plan appears to assume; with no apparent basi.s in fact; l

that the necessary number of people will report for duty; that they will report within the necessary time period, and that they will properly perform the acts that the plan requires, all as a routine matter. The plan thus completely ignores the issue of role conflict, which has been identified as a poten-tial problem among emergency response personnel. In my opin-ion, because those portions of the plan dealing with the aug-mentation of emergency personnel are premised on what may prove to be an unwarranted assumption, the plan fails to provide assurance that necessary augmentation would in fact occur.

Q. What do you mean by the term " role conflict"?

A. The word " role conflict" at its broadest describes situa-tions where two or more parts of a person's life are in con-flicts that is, situations in which two different things peo-pie are expected to do turn out to be contradictory. In the context of emergency planning, this usually takes the form of a conflict between the pressures people feel to report for var-ious kinds of emergency duty and the pressures they feel to

tend to their families.

Q. Has role conflict been identified as a problem in emergen-cies?

A. Yes. It has been discussed in the sociological literature for a number of years. The evidence that people only turn to rescue work afterg being assured that their families are safe was first reviewed in a 1952 article by Lewis Killian in the American Journal'of Sociology and is discussed in some length I by Allen H. Barton in a book called Communities in Disaster, (1969). Some investigators have questioned whether or not that tendency can be considered a general rule. However, in my study of the Buffalo Creek Flood of 1972, I know of no excep-tions to the statement that the people living in the affected area took care of their families before engaging in any kind of l

! rescue work. See, K. Erikson, Everything In Its Path, (1976).

l Furthermore, I have never seen a report describing a situation t

1 in which people went about their emergency work in the absence of assurances about the safety of their families. In my opin-ion; most scholars knowledgeable about' human response to disas-ters would agree with the conclusions of James Cornell in The Great International' Disaster'Dook First, the basic unit of human life -- the family

-- emerges as the single most important force influencing behavior. Survivors rapidly turn their own anxiety into concern for their kin. A person's first regard is for saving family mem-bers, often at the expense pf other victims or themselves. Even officials charged with the safe-ty of an entire community find their first alle-giance is to their_ family. As Ralph Linton has written, "In the Gotterdammerung ... the last man will spend his last hours searching for his wife and child." (52-3)

Moreover, in my opinion, the kinds of role conflict that have been encountered in non-nuclear disasters are very differ-ent from the kinds of role conflict we are likely to encounter in a radiological emergency. I believe the conflict itself would be a great deal sharper in the event of such an accident; and I think the conflict is much more likely to be resolved in favor of family obligations.

O. On what do you base that opinion?

A. These views are based primarily on the fact that nuclear accidents involve the risk of radiation exposure and the inher-ent uncertainties related to it. Nobody can see or smell radia-l l

tion. Nobody can sense whether they are in its presence. This l

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lack of sensory identification leads people to be more afraid of radiation than they are of other potential perils. Because their uncertainty is so much greater; it is my opinion that they are more likely to feel that their families are endangered and in need of their help.

Q. How can one determine the likel'y resolution of role con-flict with respect to a particular emergency?

A. There are only two ways to learn about such things. The first is to study what has happened on similar occasions in the past. This avenue is not particularly helpful with respect to radiological emergencies, however; because there never has been a nuclear accident of the sort we are talking about except TMI, and I am unaware of any formal role conflict studies arising from that event. Therefore, there are no historic models for us to rely upon. ,

The only other thing one can do is to survey the people who will be expected to perform services in the event of an emergency. From the responses to such surveys, we can obtain reasonably accurate estimates of how those peole are likely to behave during an emergency.

Suffolk County recently undertook a survey of volunteer firemen and school bus drivers, both groupe of which could be necessary to perform import. ant emergency services during a ra-diological emergency. School bus drivers, for instance, could 1

be expected to drive school children or persons without transportation away from a potential area of danger. Likewise; volunteer firemen are likely to be assigned evacuation, ambu-lance, rescue or firefighting duties. Three of the five fire departments surveyed by Suffolk County (Ridge, Miller Place, i

and Rocky Point) provide mutual aid to the W a ding River Fire Department. As noted, the LILCO plan relies upon such volun-teer fire departments to provide onsite firefighting, as well as, ambulance and rescue support in the event of a radiological emergency.

O. Who conducted the study for suffolk County?

A. It was conducted by Dr. Stephen Cole, a professor of soci-ology at the State University of New York at Stony Brook and president of Social Data Analysts; in consultation with me.

1 O. How was the study conducted?

l A. The study consisted of two surveys. The first interviewed 291 volunteer firemen from the five departments mentioned above. The other interviewed 246 school bus drivers serving schools in the following districts surrounding the Shoreham site: the Rocky Point School District, the Eastport Union Free School District, the Middle Island C'ntral e School District, the Riverhead Central School District, the Shoreham-Wading River School District, and the South Manor Union Free School District of Brookhaven. For further details of how the surveys were l

administered; see Dr. Cole's testimony on this contention.

(Attachment 2 is the survey administered to the volunteer fire-men; and Attachment 3 is the survey administered to the school bus drivers.)

Q. Please explain how the survey obtained information on the problem of role conflict in the event of an emergency at Shoreham.

A. We were interested in gaining information on one overrid-ing question: What would the respondents do in the event of an emergency? Would emergency workers report to their emergency posts first or tend to their families first?

In addition to that major question, we also wanted to know what kinds of people are most likely to report and which are least likely. From answers to such questions we can determine, for example; whether people with small children are apt to react differently than people with older children.

O. What were the results of the* volunteer fireman survey?

A. The results of the survey of volunteer firemen were only recently completed, and as of the time this testimony was pre-pared, I had not yet had an opportunity to review Dr. Cole's report of t'he survey results. I understand from Dr. Cole, however, that 55% indicated they would report for duty quickly in the event of an emergency and 36% indicated they would not report for duty until they had looked after their families' 9-

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safety. These results indicate that a significar t number of volunteer firemen would not report for emergency duty until after they had taken care of their families' safety.

Q. What were the results of the school bus driver survey?

A. The results of the school bus driver survey, too; were on.ly recently tabulated; and as of the time chis testimony was pre-pared, I had not yet reviewed Dr. Cole's report of the survey results. However; I understand from Dr. Cole that 69% of the school bus drivers surveyed indicated that they would first make sure that their families were safely out of the area and 24% said they would first report to work to pick up school children and drive them to a shelter. These preliminary re-sults not only confirm the existence of role conflict, they confirm that most drivers will resolve the conflict in favor of*

'. their family obligations. .

Q. How do the survey results relate to the concerns raised in Contention EP 5A?

A. The results indicate that people who are likely to be counted upon for emergency services may not be available to perform those services in a radiological emergency. In addi-tion, the studies have substantial implications with respect to LILCO's plan. Not only has the County shown that certain emergency workers may experience substantial role conflict problems during a radiological emergency; but, it has also

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shown that many of those workers are volunteer firefighters whom LILCO may rely upon in the event of a radiological emer-gency. The results indicate that only a little over one half of.the volunteer firemen; whom the LILCO plan relies upon for onsite support; would report for duty when called.

Accordingly; I believe that until such time as LILCO conducts studies like the ones I have described concerning all the emer-gency personnel LILCO plans to call upon in the event of an emergency; and accounts for the results and implications of those studies in its plan, there can be no confidence that the LILCO Plan is capable of implementation. The on-site plan relies upon cooperation of large numbers of people. So far as I can discern; LILCO has no information about the intentions or the feelings of the offsite personnel; nor does LILCO know l whether they are likely to be available to implement the plan l

on a timely basis. Until such information is available and taken into account in the provisions of the plan that deal with l augmentation of personnel; LILCO cannot reasonable rely on the l

availability of such personnel or demonstrate that the plan can be implemented. -

Q. Does that conclude your testinony on contention EP 5A7 A.- Yes.

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NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Before the Atomic' Safety and' Licensing Board In the Matter of )

)

LONG ISLAND LIGHTING COMPANY ) Docket No. 50-322 (OL)

) (Emergency Planning (Shoreham Nuclear Power Station, ) Proceedings)

Unit 1) )

)

Direct Testimony Of Dr. Stephen Cole On Behalf of Suffolk County Regarding Contention EP 5A - Role Conflict Q. Please state your name. .

A. Dr. Stephen Cole.

Q. Dr. Cole, what is your occupation?

A. I am a social scientist specializing in survey research.

My professional qualifications are set forth in more detail in my direct testimony on contentions EP 2B and 5B.

Q. Dr. Cole, what is the purpose of this testimony?

A. The purpose of this testimony is to address Suffolk County emergency planning contention EP SA. That contention concerns the failure of LILCO's emergency plan to take into account the possibility that offsite agency emergency workers and LILCO augmenting personnel will not report for duty in the event of an emergency. Two surveys, conducted for Suffolk County by Social Data Analysts, have produced data as to how offsite per-sonnel, including some upon whom the LILCO plan relies, are

likely to behave if there were an accident at Shoreham. The results suggest that large numbers of emergency personnel will experience role conflict which will make them unwilling to re-port for emergency duty until after they have attended to the safety of themselves and their families. In his testimony on contention SA, Dr. Kai Erikson relies upon the survey results in assessing the adequacy of the LILCO plan with respect to offsite personnel. In this testimony I will provide the neces-sary foundation for Dr. Eriks,on's use of the survey-data by describing how the surveys were conducted and discussing the results.

O. Please briefly describe the surveys you have mentioned.

A. The first survey was one conducted among school bus dri-vers who currently work for school systems within a ten mile

! radius of the Shoreham plant. The purpose of_that survey was to find out whether the bus drivers would actually report to work and drive their busses to help in the evacuation of school children in case of a nuclear emergency, or whether they would first go to look after their own families. The second survey was one of volunteer firemen. Its purpose was to find out, whether in the event of a nuclear accident at Shoreham, volun- '

teer firemen would report to duty to assist in evacuation and -

firefighting, or whether they would first look after the health and safety of themselves and their own family members.

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, Q. How was the volunteer fire department survey conducted? ,

A. We surveyed firemen from the Miller Place; Ridge; Riverhead; Rocky Point, and Sound Beach fire departments. For this survey we conducted the interviews over the telephone in a manner similar to the way in which we conducted the general population survey described in my direct testimony on~conten-tions EP 2B and EP 5B. Again; Drs. Johnson, Erikson and I col-laborated on the construction of the questionnaire (Attachment 2).

For this survey; we attempted to interview every member of those fire departments listed above. Out of a total of 467 firemen, we were able to complete interviews with 291. Of the 323 we.were able to contact; only 32 or 10% refused to partici-i pate. For a more detailed discussion of the reasons for not completing interviews in this survey see Appendix A of the attached report: " Reactions of Emergency Personnel to a Possible Nuclear Accident at the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant" (Attachment 4).

i Q. What were the results of the volunteer fireman survey?

A. The questionnaire asked; among others, the following ques-tions: ,

Assuming that the Shoreham nuclear power plant is 4 licensed and begins to operate; we are interested in knowing what you think you would do if there was an accident at the plant. Suppose that you were at work on a weekday morning and there was an accident at Shoreham. Everyone living within ten miles of the l^

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plant was advised to evacuate. Volunteer firemen were expected to help with the evacuation. What do you think you would do first?

1 first; you would report to the fire station so that you could help with ,

fire fighting and evacuation in the

. evacuation zone; or 2 first; you would make sure that your family was safely out of the evacua-tion zone; or i

3 first, you would leave the evacuation zone to make sure that you were in a safe place; or '

4 first; you would do something else

! (SPECIFY) .

i How would you make sure that your family j was safely out of the evacuation zone?

1 go home and drive your family to a safe place out of the evacuation zone 2 call home and tell your family to leave without you 3 some other way (SPECIFY) .

We found that a significant percentage of firemen would first take their families out of the evacuation. zone before attempt-ing to report for duty. In the event of a radiological emer-1 l gency requiring the evacuation of all people within a ten mile zone of the plant, 68% of the firemen said that they would first make sure that their families were safely out of the eva-cuation zone; whereas only 21% said that they would first re-i port to the fire station to help with evacuation or l

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e firefighting. Many of the firemen who said that they would first look after the safety of their families said that they 2

would then quickly report to duty. An analysis of the survey data indicated that 55% would report for duty relatively quick-ly, 36% would not report for duty, and 8% were undecided as.to what they would do. For a more detailed discussion'of the re--

sults see Attachment 4.

Q. Please describe how the survey was conducted among school bus drivers.

A. We interviewed 246 school bus drivers who drive school buses in the Eastport Union Free School District; the Middle Island Central School District; the Riverhead Central School District; the Shoreham Wading River School District, and the South Manor Union Free School District'of Brookhaven. Those districts are located within ten miles of the Shoreham plant.

This survey was conducted using a self-a'dminist'ered ques-tionnaire which is Attachment 3 hereto. The surveys were all conducted on the morning of September 7 at orientation meetings held for those school bus drivers. At those meetings; the school bus drivers read the questionnaire and checked off the appropriate answers. Then the data from the questionnaire were coded, keyed directly onto a computer, and analyzed using a computer program.

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O. Who constructed the questionnaire?

A. The survey was constructed by myself in collaboration with Professors Erikson and Johnson.

O. Was the survey administered to a sample of school bus dri-vers?

A. No; we did not use a sample for this survey. We attempted to interview the entire population of school bus drivers whoi worked within ten miles of the plant. In fact, there were,some workinginthatzonethatwe]idnotinterview;butwedid interview the great majority of school bus drivers that actually drive within ten miles of the Shoreham plant. In this particular study, therefore, the results are not based upon a sample, in which you draw generalizations from the sample to the population. Rather, the results of this survey are based on a population itself; although of course, we could not inter-view every member of that population.

O. What were the results of your survey of school bus dri- .

vers?

A. The questionnaire asked; among others, the following ques-l tion l

Assuming that the Shoreham nuclear power i

plant is licensed and begins to operate, we are interested in knowing what you think ,

you would do if there was an accident at the plant. Suppose that you had completed your morning run and there was an accident at Shoreham. Everyone living within ten miles of the plant was advised to evacuate.

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School bus drivers were expected to help evacuate school children. What do you think you would to first?

First, I would report to work so that I could pick up school children in the evacuation zone and drive them to a shel-ter.

First, I would make sure that my family was safely out of the evacuation zone.

First I would leave the eva-cuation zone to make sure that I was in a safe place.

First, I would do something else (SPECIFY) .

The answers to this question indicate that in the event of a radiological emergency at the Shoreham plant a substantial majority of school bus drivers would first look after the health and safety of their families rather than report to drive a school bus. Of those interviewed, 69% said that if there was an accident requiring the evacuation of people within a ten mile zone of the plant they would first make sure that their families were safely out of the evacuation zone; an additional 4% volunteered that they would first check on their families and then go to drive the school bus: 24% said they would report to work so that they could pick up school children in the eva-cuation zone and drive them to a shelter; 3% said that they f

would immediately leave the evacuation zone. For a more l

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detailed discussion of the survey findings see the attached report: " Reaction of Emergency Personnel to a Possible Nuclear Accident at the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant" (Attachment 4).

O. Dr. Cole, the questionnaires used in both these studies asked people what they would do under certain circumstances. ,

Are the answers to such questions a reliable indicator of what their actions are likely to be under those or similar circum-stances?

A. Yes they are. I would not go so far as to say that you can definitely predict What a particular individual would do based upon his or her answers to these questions, but they do give a roughly accurate estimate of the numbers of volunteer firemen and school bus drivers Who would report for emergency duty. For a more detailed discussion of the value of surveys as predictors of behavior, see my direct testimony on conten-tions EP 2B and EP 5B.

Q. Does this conclude your testimony on contention EP 5A7 '

A. Yes.

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i Attachments To The Direct Testimony of Dr. Kai T. Erikson and Dr. Stephen Cole i

On Behalf of Suffolk County Regarding Contention EP SA (Role Conflict)

ATTACHMENT 1 Resume of Dr. Kai T. Erikson ATTACHMENT 2 Survey for Volunteer Firemen ATTACHMENT 3

- Survey for Schoolbum Drivers ATTACHMENT 4

Responses of Emergency Personnel ~to a Possible Accident .

at the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant (Draft)

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ATTACHMENT 1 i

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ATTACHMENT 1 Kai T. Erikson Department of Sociology Born in Vienna, Austria, 1931 Yale University U.S. citizen (derivative,1937)

New Haven, Connecticut Married, two children EDUCATION 3

1949-1950 University of California, Berkeley 1950-1953 Reed College (B.A.)

1953-1955 University of CLicago (M.A.)

1955-1963 University of Chicago (Ph.D.)

POSITIONS 1954-1955 Research Fellow, Family Study Center, University of Chicago 1955-1957 Social Science Technician, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Walter Reed Army Medical Center (while on active duty, U.S. Army) 1959-1963 Instructor to Assistant Professor, Departments of Psychiatry and Sociology, University of Pittsburgn 1963-1966 Associate Professor, Departments of Psychiatry and Sociology, Emory University 1966- Associate Professor to Professor, Department of Sociology and American Studies Program, Yale

. University 1958-1969 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford, California 1969-1973 eter, Trumbull College, Yale University (Chair, ,

Council of Masters, 1970-1973) 1974-1977 Cha:r, American Studies Program, Yale University 1979- Editor, The Yale Review

SELECTE PUBLICATIONS Books Wayward Puritans: A Study in the Sociology of Deviance (New York John Wiley, 1966)

Everything in Its Path: Destruction of Community in the Buffalo Creek Flood (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1976)

Articles "The Confirmation of the Delinquent," Chicago Review, Winter, 1957 (with Erik H. Erikson)

" Patient Role and Social Uncertainty: A Dilessna of the Mentally Ill," Psychiatry, 20:263-274, 1957

'"The Functions of Deviance in Groups," Social Problems, 7 98-107, 1959 (with Robert A. Dentler)

" Impressions of Soviet Psychiatry: Some Travel Notes,"

Psychiatric Ccmmunications, 5:1-12, 1962

" Notes en the Sociology of Deviance," Social Probleas, 9:307-314, 1962 l

"A Return to Zero," American Scholar, 36:134-146, 1966 "A Comment on Disguised Observation in Sociology,' Social ,

Problems, 14:366-373, 1967

" Sociology and the Historical Perspective," American Sociologist, 5:331-338, 1970

" Introduction," In Search of Common Grounds Conversations with Erik H. Erikson and Huey P. Newton (New York: Norton, 1973)

" Loss of Communality on Buffalo Creek," American Journal of Psychiatry, 133:302-306, 1976 "On Teaching Sociology," New England Sociolocist, 1:35-40, 1979 "A Report to the People of Grassy Narrows," in Christopher Vecsey and Robert W. Venables, editors, American Indian Environments: Ecolooical Issues in Native American History

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(Syracuse, N.Y.: Syracuse University Press, 1980) (with Christopher Vecsey) l l

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SELECTED PUBLICATIONS (continued)

Book Reviews American Journal of Sociology American Scholar American Sociological Review Contemporary Sociology New York Times Book Review Transaction Yale Law Journal HONORS McIver Award, American Sociological Associaticc, 1967 Sorokin Award, American Sociological Association,1977 Nominee, National Book Awards,1977 PROFESSIOL?.L MEMBERSHIPS American Sociological Association (Chair, Comunittee on Professional Ethics, 1971-1973; Council, 1974-1977; Ceaunittee on Executive Office and Budget, 1978-1981) ,

Society for the Study of Social Problems (President, 1970-1971) l Eastern Sociological Society (President, 1980-1981) l

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surrc .r coexTy SunvEY ATTACH!!ENT 2 Voluntotr Tircenn e September, 1982 Hello, my name is and I am calling for suffolk County. We are doing a survey of volunteer firemen to 1 obtain information that will be useful to the County in making plans to deal with a possible nuclear emergency at the Shoreham nuclear power plant. The fire depart- 2 ment is cooperating with this research. They have given us a list of members. Do you still work with the fire department? 3

4. For how many years have you worked with this fire district?

0=less than one 4=six to ten

,1=one 5=more than ten 2=two to three 3=four to five DON'T READ (9= Refuse 4

5-9 What is tha zip code of your home address?

5 6 7 8 9 In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near each of the following:

(Categories for Q. 10 to Q. 13) 1=very dangerous 2 =da ngerou s 3=not too dangerous DON'T READ C4= Don't Know

[9= Refuse

10. an airport 10

11. a mental hospital 11

12. a coal fired power plant 12

13. a nucicar power plant 13

14. Would you describe yourscif as ,

1=a supporter of nuclear power plants as a means of providing electricity.

2=an opponent of nuclear power plants, or -

3=you haven't made up your mind yet on this issue?

DON'T READ [9= Refuse

, y4

15. Do you think that LILCO should complett- and operate the Shoreham nuclear power plant?

1=yes DON'T READ Ii= Don't Kn..w

=nc I "a."a f a s e 15

14.

During normal comention, which typa of olcetricity plcnt pellutos ths air tne 1 cast:

1=an oil-fired plant 2=a coal-fired plant 3=a nuclear-fired plant 4=you're not sure

' DCN'T READ [5=all about the same

[9=Refuso 16 17.

During a normallevel dangerous operation does a nuclear pcwer plant give off of radiation?

1 I

1=yes 2=no

DON'T READ [3= Don't Know [9= Refuse 17 16.

Assuming that the Shoreham nuclear power plant is licensed and begins to oparate, we are interested in knowing what you think you would do if there was an accident at the plant.

Suppose that you were at work on a weekday morning and there was sn accident at Shoreham. Everyone living within ten miles of the plant was advised to evacuate. Volunteor firemen were expected to help with the evacuation. What do you think you would do first?

1=first, you would report to the fire station so that you could help with fire fighting and evacuation in the evneuation zone, or [ SKIP to Q. 233 2=first, you would make sure that your family was safely out of the evacuation zone, or [ASK Q. 19 to 223 3=first, you would leave the evacuation zone to make sure that you were in a safe, place, or [ SKIP to Q. 23]

4=first, you would do something else CSKIP to Q. 233 Specify DON'T READ [5= Den't Know [ SKIP to Q. 23

[9= Refuse [ SKIP to O. 233 15 19.

How would you make sure that your family was safely out of the evscuation zone?

l=go hcme and drive your family t& s safe place out of the evacuation zone j

2= call home and tell your family to leave without you l

3=some other way (specify)

DON'T READ [4= Don't Know

[9= Refuse 19

. Where would you go?

l= someplace ir. Suffolk County 2= someplace in Masssa County 2=c =aplace In Naw York City 4=sc=e Other place (Specify)

E=you d:n't kn:w [SK!? tt G. :23 L~N'T R 1.D [9=cefure [SV. P :: C. 223 _ ___

21.

In torma your hems?of milcs, about how far away in this placa from' 1=10 miles or isss 2=11 to 20 miles

• 3=21 to 30 miles

'~' ~~ 4=31 to 40 miles S=41 to 50 miles

} 6-more than 50 miles

':-.-- DON'T READ [7= Don't Know C9= Refuse 21 fj 22. " 'Af ter your family was in s safe place would ~ you return to the fire house te help with evacuation?

1=yes

2=no a

ni DON'T (3=I would try

_.", [4= Don't Know READ [9= Refuse .

22 23.

If there was e nuclear accident at Shoreham requiring the evacua. tion of people within a ten mile zone, how dangerous do you think it would be for you to spend a day working within the evacuation zono?

y 1-much more dangerous than normal fire fighting work

' ' " ~ 2=somewhat 3=about equally more dangerous than normal fire fighting work dangerous 4=less dangerous

_ 5=not dangerous at all DON'T READ [5= Don't Knew (9= Refuse .

• 23 Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. -

(Categories for C. 24 to 0 27) '

1= agree 2= disagree DON'T READ [3= Don.'t Know

. [9= Refuse 24.

Helping with the evscuation of people from the emergency tone during e. nuclear emergency should.be the job of specially tra.ined personnel rather than the job cf volunteer fireman.

24 25.

In the event of a nuclear emergane; at Shoreham it would be the obligation of everycne to first icok af ter the health and safety of their f2mily.

25 26.

Only firemen who have soecifically volunteered should be expected to help with off site evacuation during a nuclear emergency.

26 27 In th2 event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham, a volunteer fire =an must place duty to t,he, fire department ever duty ta family.

27

28. D you currently have any children living at home with you?

l=yes 2=no [ SKIP to G. 32]

DDN'T READ [9= Refuse 2h

29. Hew old is the y:en;est child livi.g at h:me with y:u? )

l 1=under 5 l 2=5 to 12 '

3=13 to 18 4=0ver 18 DON'T READ [9= Refuse 29 30-31 In what district do your children attend sch::17 30 (schoci district C99=nc children attending scho:13 31

32. What is y:ur current marital status?

1= married 2= single (SKIP to O. 34]

3= widowed [ SKIP to Q. 34]

4= divorced or separated (SKIP to Q. 343 DON'T READ (9= Refuse

. 32

33. Does your spouse currently werk full time (30 hours3.472222e-4 days <br />0.00833 hours <br />4.960317e-5 weeks <br />1.1415e-5 months <br /> a week or mere)?

1=yes 2=no DON'T READ [9= Refuse 33

34. What is the last grade of schoc1 that ycu c:mpleted?

1=scme high schoci or less 2=high schoci graduate 3=some college 4=cc11ege grnduste DON'T READ [9= Refuse 34

35. What is your age categ:ryi 1=under 25 2=25-35 3=36-50 4=51-65 5=cver 65 *

[

DON'T READ [9= Refuse 35

36. What is ycur sex?

1= male 2= female 36 THANK YOU FOR YOUR COOPERATIC/

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ATTACHMENT 3

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ATTACHliENT:3 SUFFOLK COUNTY SURVEY Schoolbus Drivers September, 1982 As you prebably know, the Long Island Lighting Company has applied for a license that will enable it to operate its nuclear power ,

plant at Shoreham. If this plant goes into cperation it is essential to have an adequate emergency evacuation plan in caso there is a nuclear accident at the plant. Suffolk County is try-ing.to develop such a plan and needs some information from you.

This questionnaira is completely annonymous and confidential.

Results of this survey will only be prasented in statistical tables.

Please check the appropriate box.

1) For what school district do you drive?

~ ~i Raw y. Ebtr,f Ghcul I> ditd*

I I .Eastport Union Free School District i I Middle Island Central School District i Ir Riverhead Central School District l l Shoreham-Wading River School District l l South Manor Union Free School District of Brookhaven

2) For how many years have you driven for this district?

I i less than one  ! I four to five 1 l one i I six to ten i i two to three i i more than ten

3) What is the Zip Code of your home address?

4) In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near each of the following:

Very Not too Dangerous Dangerous Dangerous an airport I i l .I I a mental hospital l 1 1 I I i a coal fired' power plant i I I i l i a nuclear power plant i I LJ i I W

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5) 1.*ould you describa y=urssif as:

1 i a supporter of nuclear power plants as a means of providing electricity.

I I an opponent of nuclear power plants.

I I I haven't made_up my m_ind yet on this issue.

6) Do you think that LILCO should completo and operata the Shoreham i nuclear powar plant?

l i yes l l no I i I don't know.

7) During normal operation, which type of electricity plant pc11utes the air the least?

l I an oil-fired plant l l a coal-fired plant i I a nuclear-fired plant I I I am not sure.

3) During normal ooeration does a nuclear power plant give off a dangerous level of radiation?

I i yes l l no i l I am not sure.

i) Assuming that tha Shoreham nu: lear power plant is licensed and begins to operate, we are interested in knowing what you think you would do if there was an accident at the plant. Suppose -hat y:u had ecmpleted yccr morning run ?.nd therc was an sccident at Shoreham. Everyona living within tan miles of the plant was tdvised to evacuate. Schoolbus drivers were expected to help

( evacuata schoci children. Nhtt do you think you would do first?

I I First. I would report to work so thMt I could pick up school children in the evacuation :ons and drive them I

to a shelter.

t i First, I would make sure that ry f2mily w'.s infely out of the avaccatien z:ne.

t l First, I would laave the evicur. tion zone to .ske sure that I was in i safe place.

t i First, I would do scmething elsa. _

ti._.se sp2:1 y; I

10) If there was s nuclecr accident et Shorahs.m requiring the evacuatica of people within n ten mile zone, how dangerous do you think it would be for you to spend several hours driving school children out of the evacuation zone?

I I so dangerous that it would be life thrastoning i I very dangerous l l *somewhat dangerous I I not dangerous

! I I don't know.

11) Do you agree or disagree with the following statements Don't Agree Disagree Know l l l l l l Evacuation of school children during a nuclear emergency should be done by spoeially trained personnel, not by school bus drivers.

I I I I l l In .he event of a nuclear emergtncy at Shcreham it would be the obligation of everyone to first look after the health and safety of their family.

(___J l l l l The best way to evscuate school children from an unsafe area is to have their parents pick them up at school.

I I i 1 1 I In the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham, e schoolbus driver must place duty to drive the school bus over duty to family.

• 12 ) Do you currently have any children who live at home with you?

l- I yes _

i i no

13) If you have children living et home with you, how old is the youngest? -

l l under 5 I l 13 to 18 I l 5 to 12 l l over 18

14) If you have children living at home with you, in what district do they attend school?

(School C1 strict;

15) What is your current me.rital status?

I i m?.rried l I widowed i I s ir.gle l l divorcad or separated

15) If escriod, does your spouse currently work full time (30 hours3.472222e-4 days <br />0.00833 hours <br />4.960317e-5 weeks <br />1.1415e-5 months <br /> a week or more)?

I i yes I i no

17) What is the isst grade of school that you completad?

I l some high school or less I i high school gra.duate l l some' college L__J co11ost graduate ,

18) What is your ags entegory?

I l under 25 I I 25-35 l l 36-53 l 1 51-65 l l over 65

19) What is your sex?

l l male l I female ,

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, THANK YOU FOR YOUR COOPERATION

8 ATTACHMENT 4 O

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ATTACHIENT 4 l

DRAFT RESPONSES OF EMERGENCY PERSONNEL TO A POSSIBLE ACCIDENT AT THE SHOREHAM NUCLEAR POWER PLANT October, 1982 Prepared for Suffolk County by l

Social Data Analysts, Inc.

a TABLE OF CONTENTS About Social Data Analysts, Inc............................... 2 Executive Summary............................................. 3 TABLE 1: Answers Given to Questions on School Bus Drivers Questionnaire.......................... 12 TABLE 2: Correlates of Attitudes Towards Emergency Service (Bus drivers).................... 18 TABLE 3: Answers Given to Questions on Volunteer Firemen Questionnaire............................... 23 TABLE 4: Correlates of Attitudes Towards Emergency Service (Firemen)........................ 30 APPENDIX As ................................................. 36 Methods and Procedures................................ 36 Design of Questionnaire (bus drivers)................. 39 Volunteer Firemen...................................... 41 Table A-l's Outcome of Firemen Survey.................. 43 Design of Questionnaire (volunteer firemen)........... 44 APPENDIX B: Schoolbus Drivers Questionnaire................. 46 APPENDIX Ct Volunteer Firemen Questionnaire................. 51 i

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1 SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.

ABOUT SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.

Social Data Analysts, Inc. is a Long Island based research and polling company that has conducted more than 100 social sur-veys in the last ten years. Clients have included Newsday, The Bostod Globe, The Baltimore Sun, Gannett-News Service, Brookhaven National Laboratories, Columbia University, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Long Island Lighting Company. Social Data Analysts is a member of the National Council on Public Opinion Polls and the American Association of Public Opinion Researchers. (Dr. Stephen Cole is President of Social Data Analysts. Dr. Cole, who received his Ph.D. in sociology from Columbia University in 1967, is also a professor of sociology at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He is the author of seven books, including a popular research methods text and more than 25 articles published in journals such as Science, Scientific American, and Public Opinion Quarterly. Ann Harriet t

! Cole is Director of Field Research. She received an M.A. degree in sociology from Stony Brook in 1975 and has more than 10 years of experience conducting social surveys.

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_3 EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

In order for the Long Island Lighting Company Shoreham nuclear power plant to receive an operating license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission a satisfactory evacuation plan I

providing for the safety of community residents must be filed.

In order to help the County and its conruitants prepare such an evacuation plan, Social Data Analysts, Inc. conducted two sur-veys among two groups of emergency personnel workers.

In the event of a radiological emergency at Shoreham several groups of people will play a crucial role in helping with the evacuation of citizens in the area of the plant.

Although no plan has yet been adopted, school bus drivers and volunteer firemen are typically expected to play important roles t

in any evacuation. School bus drivers are needed to drive school children from schools within the evacuation zone to shelters outside of the evacuation zone. Volunteer firemen are needed to fight any fires within the evacuation ' zone and to help with other evacuation tasks.

If a nuclear accident requiring evacuation did occur at Shoreham it is possible that both school bus drivers, volunteer l firemen and other emergency personnel would face a difficult role conflict. On the one hand they would have their designated responsibilities under the evacuation plan and on the other they would have their resp'onsibility to their own family. We cannot simply assume that all or most emergency personnel will place their duty to help with evacuation over their duty to look after the health and safety of their families. The two surveys we conducted had as their primary goal to estimate what proportion ceastnstre-

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of both cchool buc drivoro cnd voluntocor firem:n could be counted upon to report quickly for their evacuation assignments.

We conducted a total of 246 interviews with school bus dri-vers driving for the following school districts (all within a ten mile radius of the Shoreham plant): Eastport Union Free School District, Midd'le Isla'nd Central School District, Riverhead Central School District, Shoreham-Wading River School i

District, South Manor Union Free School District of Brookhaven.

These 246 interviews represent close to the total population of drivers for these districts and a substantial majority of all drivers for school districts within a ten mile zone of the plant.

All data were collected through a self-administered questionnaire which was distributed to bus drivers at three dif-ferent orientation meetings on the morning of September 7, 1982.

For more information about how this survey was conducted see

~

Appendix A.

Responses given by school bus drivers to all questions asked in the survey are presented in Table 1. The most signifi-cant question in the survey was number 16 in which we asked the drivers what they would do if there was a nuclear accident at Shoreham. (For the exact wording of this question see Table 1 or i

the questionnaire in Appendix B.) We posited a scenario in which a nuclear accident at Shoreham required the evacuation of all people within a ten mile zone of the plant. We asked the drivers to think what they would do if this happened just after they had completed their morning run. Fully 69% said that they would first make sure that their family was safely out of the eva-

. - - - . ~ - .. .. .=.

cuation zoner 24% said that thcy would first rsport to work to help with the evacuation of school children; 3% said that they would immediately leave the evacuation zone; and 4% volunteered that' they would first check on their families and then go to drive the school bus.

These data lead us to conclude that a substantial majority of bus drivers would handle the role conflict they face by first looking after the health and safety of their families. The eva-cuation of school children is a task Which must be performed very quickly. Successful evacuation of school children would 1

l require that bus drivers report to work immediately once the evacuation advisory was made. Even if some of the bus drivers would attempt to return to work after looking after the safety of their family, it might be too late for them to accomplish the evacuation in a timely manner.*

J In evaluating the extent to which the survey we conducted accurately predicts the behavior of school bus drivers in a

~

real emergency, we must consider that the questionnaire was

! filled out in a work setting.at Which the bus drivers' super-visors were present and in a relatively calm non-emergency situation. Interviews with some bus drivers indicated that some of them may have been afraid to say that they would not report to drive the bus; fearing that they would lose their. jobs. Also, under the actual conditions of an accident, it is possible that some bus drivers who said that they would report to drive might become frightened and attempt to leave the evacuation area. The data suggest that it would not be safe to count on a majority of school bus drivers helping with the evacuation of school l

O

children.

Fully 86% of the school bus drivers agreed with the statement: "In the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham it would be the obligation of everyone to first look after the health and safety of their own family." Only 8% disagreed with this and 6% had no opinion. Only 12% agreed with the statement:

"In the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham, a school bus driver must place duty to drive the school bus over duty to family." Seventy-four percent disagreed with this statement and 14% had no opinion.

Another goal of this survey was to find out what charac-teristics of school bus drivers would be correlated with the likelihood of them reporting ~ for evacuation duty in case of a nuclear accident. Data on this question are presented in Table

2. Here we show what proportion of drivers say they would first report to work and what proportion say that duty to drive the school bus must be placed over duty to family broken down by the answers to other questions and demographic characteristics.

Among the main findings were the following: .

1) The dri. vers least likely to say that they would imme-diately report to work were those who drove for the Shoreham-Wading River school district- the district which is closest to the plant and for which a quick evacuation might te the most important.

2) Those drivers who are the most afraid of nuclear power plants are less likely to say they will report to work quickly .

than are those who are less afraid. Level of knowledge about nuclear power was not correlated with the likelihood of caccr=,

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rcporting to work quickly.

3) Attitudes towards nuclear power is very strongly corre-lated with likelihood of reporting to work immediately. Fully 51% of those who describe themselves as supporters of nuclear power say they would report to work immediately as opposed to only 16% who describe themselves as opponents and 22% who say they haven't made up their minds yet. Forty-nine percent of those favoring the completion of the Shoreham plant as opposed to 17% opposing its completion and 22% with no opinion on this issue say that they would report to work first. As the data in Table 1 indicate, however, fully 60%ohtheschoolbusdrivers oppose the completion of Shoreham while only 20% favor its completion. ,

4) Drivers who believe that it would be very dangerous for them to work in the evacuation zone are significantly less

, likely to say that they would report to work first than are l

those who are less concerned with the personal danger.

5) Drivers with children ~i iving at home with them were less likely to say that they would report to work first; but even a significant majority of those who did not have children living at home with them said that they would first look after the I

l health and safety of their family.

l l 6) Drivers who had children of their own attending school within the ten mile ' zone were less likely to say that they would i report to work than those who had children attending school out-side of the ten mile zone.

l l The survey of volunteer firemen was conducted on the l

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-8 telephone among 291 members of the following d0partmento: Millor Place, Ridge, Riverhead, Rocky Point, and Sound Beach. There were a total of 467 firemen in these departments. Only 32 or 10% of the firemen that we contacted refused to . participate in the survey. Most of the firemen whom we did not interview could not be reached on the telephone. For a more detailed disc,ussion of the methods used in conductJ ng this survey see Appendix A.

The answers given by the firemen to all questions contained in the survey are presented in Table 3. Protests conducted with firemen indicated that although a significant number of firemen felt that it was their obligation to first look after the health and safety of their family in case of a nuclear accident, some of them would attempt to check in on their family and then report quickly for evacuation duty. We asked a series of questions aimed at estimating what propertion of firemen would report for duty within a relatively short time after the eva-cuation advisory was issued.

We first asked the firemen a question similar to that asked of the school bus drivers. (For the exact wording of this question see Table 3 or Appendix C.) Sixty-eight percent of the firemen said that they would first make sure that their family was safely out of the evacuation zo.ne, 21% said that they would first report to the fire station to help with evacuation, 1%

said that they would leave the evacuation zone, 7% said 'that -

they would do something else (generally involving an activity i

which would delay their reporting to duty) and 4% said that they did not know what they would do.

For those firemen who said that they would first make sure

that their family was safely out of the evacuation zone we asked them how they would do this. Fifty-one percent said that they would call home and tell their family to leave without them; 32%

said that they would drive their family to a safe place outside of the evacuation zoner 12% said that they would seek to protect

, . their family in some other way (generally involving at activity ,

such as taking a boat to" Connecticut which would delay their reporting to work); and 5% said that they did not.know what they would do.

Combining the answers to these two questions we constructed an index which suggests that 55% would attempt to report tO work relatively quickly, 36% would look after the safety of them-selves and their family in a way which would prevent them from reporting quickly to duty, and 8% did not know what they would do.

From both the pretests and the actual interviews with the firemen it was evident that the situation we posed for them did provide them with a significant amount of role conflict. Most of the firemen would want to help in an emergency such as would l be created in the event of a nuclear accident; but they also feel a strong sense of obligation to their families. The data lead to the conclusion that at least a significant minority of firemen would resolve this role conflict by looking after the needs of their family rather than report to duty.

l This conclusion was supported by answers given to the agree-disagree questions in which 92% of the firemen agreed that: "In the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham it would be the obligation of everyone to first look after the health and

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cofoty of their family." Only 5% diccgrocd with this and 3% had y

no opinion. On the other hand only 17% agreed with the statement that: "In the event of a nuclear emergency at Shcreham, a volunteer fireman must place duty to the fire department over duty to family." Seventy-seven percent disagreed with this and 6% had no opinion.

In Table 4.we present data which show the likelihood of a fireman reporting to work quickly and the percent saying that a fireman. must place duty to the fire department over duty to family broken down by the other questions asked in the survey.

Among the most important findings were the following:

1) Firemen who believe that it is dangerous to live near a nuclear power plant are significantly less likely to indicate that they will report for duty quickly than those who are less concerned about living near a nuclear power plant.

2) Supporters of nuclear energy in general and those who believe that LILCO should complete the Shoreham plant are more likely to say that they will report to work quickly than are those who oppose nuclear energy and oppose the completion of the Shoreham plant. Unlike the school bus drivers, however, a majority of 57% favor the completion of Shoreham whereas 33%

oppose its, completion. Level of information about nuclear energy was not significantly correlated with likelihood of quickly reporting to duty. -

3) Firemen who believed 'kat it was very dangerous for them l to serve in the evacuation zone during a radiological emergency were significantly less likely to say that they would report for work than those who are less worried about the personal danger.

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Howcyor, fully 50% of tho fircmsn balisvo that it would ba "much more dangerous than normal fire fighting work" for them to spend a day working within the evacuation zone. l

4) Firemen who have children living at home with them are less likely to indicate that they will quickly report for duty than those who do not have children living at home with them.

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TABLE 1 ANSWERS GIVEN TO QUESTIONS ON SCHOOL BUS DRIVERS QUESTIONNAIRE

5. For what school district do you drive?

Eastport Union Free School District 8%

Middle Island Central School District 45 Riverhead Central School District 25 Shoreham-Wading River School District 12 South Manor Union Free School District of Brookhaven 5 Other or ';ombination 4 Total 99%

6. For how many years have you driven for this district?

less than one 18%

one 15 two to three 18 four to five 18 six to ten 20 more than ten _,, '.1 Total 100%

7. What is the Zip Code of your home address?

within 10 mile zone 42S outside of 10 mile zone 58 Total 100%

8. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near an airport?

very dangerous 7%

dangerous 32 not too dangerous 61 Total 100%

9. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a mental hospital?

very dangerous 6%

dangerous 17 not too dangerous 76 Total 99%

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Table 1 Continusd

10. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a coal fired power plant?

very dangerous 12%

dangerous 29 not too dangerous 59 Total 100%

11. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a nuclear power plant?

very dangerous 64%

dangerous 23 not too dangerous 13 Total 100%

12. Would you describe yourself as:

a supporter of nuclear power plants as a means of providing electricity 16%

an opponent of nuclear power plants 48 I haven't made up my mind yet on this issue 36 Total 100%

13. Do you think that LILCO should complete and operate the Shoreham nuclear power plant? ,

yes 20%

no 60 I don't know 20

. Total 100%

14. During normal operation, which type of electricity plant pollutes the air the least?

an oil-fired plant 10%

a coal-fired plant 13 a nuclear-fired plant 33 I am not sure 45 Total 101%

SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTSp INC.

Table 1 Continued

15. During normal operation does a nuclear power plant give off a dangerous level of radiation?

yes 14%

no 38 I am not sure 48 Total . - 100%

16. Assuming that the Shoreham nuclear power plant is licensed and begins to operate, we are e interested in knowing what you think you would do if there was an accident at the plant. Suppose that you had completed your morning run and there was an accident at Shoreham. Everyone living within ten miles of the plant was advised to evacuate. School bus drivers were expected to help evacuate school children. What do you think you would do first?

First, I would report to work so that I could pick up school children in the evacuation zone and drive them to a shelter. 24%

First, I would make sure that my family was safely out of the evacuation zone. 69 i First, I would leave the evacuation zone to make sure that I was in a safe place. 3 First, I would do something else .

First, check on family and then go to drive the bus. 4 j

l Total 100%

j 17. If there was a nuclear accident at Shoreham I requiring the evacuation of people within a ten mile zone, how dangerous do you think it would be for you to spend several hours driving school children out of the evacuation zone?

so dangerous that'it would be life threatening 32%

very dangerous 34 l

somewhat dangerous 25 not dangerous 1

'I don't know 8 l

Total 100%

Table 1 Continued

18. Do you agree or disagree that evacuation of school children during a nuclear emergency should be done by specially trained personnel, not by school bus drivers.

agree 51%

disagree 35 don't know 14 Total 100%

19. Do you agree or disagree that in the even+. of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham it would be the obligation of everyone to first look after the health and safety of their family, agree 86%

disagree 8 don't know 6 Total 100%

20. Do you agree or disagree that the best way to evacuate school children from an unsafe area is to have their parents pick them up at school.

agree 14%

disagree 74 don't know 12 Total 100%

21. Do you agree or disagree that in the event of a 1 nuclear emergency at Shoreham, a schoolbus driver l must place duty to drive the school bus over duty l to family.

agree 12%

l disagree 74 don't knew 14 Total 100%

l

22. Do you currently have any children who live at home with you?

l yes 78%

no 22 Total 100%

SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.

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. 1 Table 1 Continucd j

23. If you have children living at homa with you, how old is the youngest?

under 5 22%

5 to 12 39 24 13 to 18 over 18 15 Total 100%

24. If you have children living at home with you, in what district do they attend school?

within 10 mile zone 88%

outside 10 mile zone 12 Total 100%

25. What is your current marital status?

married 78%

single 6 widowed 2 divorced or separated 14 Total 100%

26. If married, does your spouse currently work full time (30 hours3.472222e-4 days <br />0.00833 hours <br />4.960317e-5 weeks <br />1.1415e-5 months <br /> a week or more)?

yes 77%

no 23 Total 100%

27. What is the last grade of school that you completed?

some high school or less 14%

high school graduate 60 some college 21 college graduate 5 Total 100%

N/A DRTATME@dNC.

. Table 1 Continued

28. What is your age category?

under 25 4%

25-35 31 36-50 44

51-65 20 over 65 1 Total 100%

29. What is your sex?

male 23%

female 77 Total 100%

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TABLE 2 CORRELATES OF ATTITUDES TOWARDS EMERGENCY SERVICE

% Saying duty to drive school bus

% Saying must be they would placed first report over duty to work to family

5. For what school district do you drive?

Eastport Union Free School District 29 10 Middle Island Central School District 23 9 Riverhead Central School District 29 17 Shoreham-Wading River School District 10 7 South Manor Union Free School District of Brookhaven 20 23 Other or combination 38 12

6. For how many years have you driven for this district?

less than one 28 7 one

• 20 11 two to three 15 18 four to five 23 15 six to ten 26 4 more than ten 35 . 17 j 7. What is the Zip Code of your home address?

within 10 mile zone 21 11 outside of 10 mile zone 26 12

8. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near an airport?

very dangerous 25 0 dangerous 22- ' 15 not too dangerous 23 10

Tablo 2 Continutd

% Saying duty to drive school bus

% Saying must be they would plac*ed first report over duty to work to family

9. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a mental hospital?

very dangerous 20 8 dangerous 19 13 not too dangerous 25 11

10. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a coal fired power plant?

very dangerous 27 12 dangerous 24 9 not too dangerous 22 12

11. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a nuclear power plant?

very dangerous 17 10 dangerous ,

33 14 ,

not too dangerous 33 15

12. Would you describe yourself as:

a supporter of nuclear power plants as a means of providing electricity 51 18 an opponent of nuclear power plants 16 11 I haven't made up my mind yet on this issue 22 9

13. Do you think that LILCO should complete and operate the Shoreham nuclear power plant?

yes 49 16 no 17 9 I don't know 22 13 SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTSp INC.

Tablo 2 Continued

% Saying duty to drive school bus

% Saying must be they would placed first report over duty to work to family

14. During normal operation, which type of electricity plant pollutes the air the least?

an oil-fired plant 22 20 a coal-fired plant 38 28 a nuclear-fired plant 16 7 I am not sure 25 7

15. During normal operation does a nuclear power plant give off a dangerous level of radiation?

yes 22 20 no 23 12 I am not sure 25 8

17. If there was a nuclear accident at Shoreham requiring the evacuation of people within a ten mile zone, how dangerous do you think it would be for you to spend several hours driving school children out of the evacuation zone?

so dangerous that it would be life j

threatening 16 12 very dangerous 26 10 somewhat dangerous 36 15 not dangerous' I don't know 18 5

18. Do you anree or disagree that evacuation of sche, children during a nuclear emergency

, should be done by specially trained personnel, not by school bus drivers.

! drivers.

agree 16 7 disagree 38 20 don't know 20 3 f8@ATUN4 FMTA [NDiAT@H% INC.

l Tablo 2 Continued

% Saying ,

duty to l drive school bus

% Saying must be they would placed first report over duty to work to family

19. Do you agree or disagree that in the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham it would be the obligation of everyone to first look after'the health and safety of their family, agree 21 8 disagree 47 50 don't know 31 14

20. Do you agree or disagree that the best way to evacuate school children from an unsafe crea is to have their parents pick them up at school.

agree 23 10 disagree 27 13 don't know 4 4

21. Do you agree or disagree that in the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham, a school bus driver must place duty to drive the school bus over duty to family, agree 75 disagree 15 don't know 25

22. Do you currently have any children who live at home with you?

yes 21 10 no 37 17

23. If you have children living at home with you, how old is the youngest?

under 5 12 5 5 to 12 22 7 13 to 18 14 7 over 18 41 32

. Table 2 Continusd

% Saying duty to drive school bus

% Saying must be they would placed first report over duty to work to family

,, 24. If you have children living at home with

,, you, in what district do they attend school?

within 10 mile zone 17 7 outside 10 mile zone 31 7

25. What is your current marital status?

married 23 11 single 15 7 widowed

• divorced or separated 30 16

26. If married, does your spouse currently work full time (30 hours3.472222e-4 days <br />0.00833 hours <br />4.960317e-5 weeks <br />1.1415e-5 months <br /> a wsek or more)?

yes 23 8 no 23 19

27. What is the last grade of school that you completed?

some high school or less 41 14 high school graduate 21 10 some college 24 13 college graduate 18 8

28. What is your age category?

under 25 11 0 25-35 . . 15 10 36-50 23 8 43 23

~

51-65

• over 65

29. What is your sex?

male 26 17 female 23 9 SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC. _ - - _

- . TABLE 3 ANSWERS GIVEN TO QUESTIONS ON VOLUNTEER FIREMEN QUESTIONNAIRE

4. For how many years have you worked with this fire district?

one or less 11%

two to three 10 four to five - 17 six to ten 21 more than ten 41 TOTAL 100%

5. What is the Zip Code of your home address?

within 10 mile zone 59%

outside of 10 mile zone 41

. TOTAL 100%

10. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near an airport?

very dangerous 3%

dangerous 19 not too dangerous 75 Don't know g 3 l TOTAL 100%

i

11. In general, how dangerous so you think it would be to live near a mental hospital?

very dangerous 1%

dangerous 16 not too dangerous 79

( Don't know 4 l

l TOTAL 100%

l l

l l

l l

l l

SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC. __ . _ _ _ ___ ,

• Table 3 Continuzd

12. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a coal fired power plant? .

very dangerous 2%

dangerous 19 not too dangerous 76 -

3 TOTAL 100%

13. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a nuclear power plant?

very dangerous 20%

dangerous 29 not too dangerous 46

Don't know 6 TOTAL 101%

14. Would you describe yourself as:

a supporter of nuclear power plants as a.

means of providing electricity 35%

an opponent of nuclear power plants 19 I haven't made up my mind yet on this issue 46 TOTAL 100%

i 15. Do you think that LILCO should complete and -

operate the Shoreham nuclear power plant?

i yes 57%

l no 33 Don't know 10 TOTAL ,

100%

16. During normal operation, which type of electricity plant pollutes the air the least?

an oil-fired plant 9%

l 8 a coal-fired plant a nuclear-fired plant 59 I am not sure 24

( 100%

! TOTAL .

SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.

Table 3 Continutd

17. During normal operation does a nuclear power plant give off a dangerous level of radiation?

yes 9%

no 63 you're not sure 28 TOTAL 100%

18. Assuming that the Shoreham nuclear power plant is licensed and begins to operate, we are interested in knowing what you think you would do if there was an accident at the plant.

Suppose that you were at work on a weekday morning and there was an accident at Shoreham.

Everyone living within ten miles of the plant was advised to evacuate. Volunteer firemen were expected to help with the evacuation.

What do you think you would do first?

first, you would report to the fire station so that you could help with fire fighting and evacuation in the evacuation zone, or 21%

first, you would make sure that your family was safely out of the evacuation zone, or 68 first, you would leave the evacuation zone to make sure that you were in a safe place, or 1 first, you would do something else 7 Don't know 4 TOTAL 100%

19. How would you make sure that your family was safely out of the evacuation zone?

go home and drive your family to a safe place out of the evacuation zone 32%

call home and tell your family to leave without you 51 some other way 12 l

Don't know 5 TOTAL 100%

t L SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.

Table 3 Continued

20. Where would you go?

someplace in Suf folk County 16%

someplace in Nassau County 15 someplace in New York City 11 some other place 41 you don't know 17 TOTAL 100%

21. In terms of miles, about how far away is this place from your home?

10 miles or less 9%

11 to 20 miles 8 21 to 30 miles 16 31 to 40 miles 10 41 to 50 miles 7 more than 50 miles 46 Don't know 5

TOTAL 101%

22. After your family was in a safe place would you return to the fire house to help with evacuation?

yes - 58%

no 20 I would try 11 Don't know 10 TOTAL 99%

23. If there was a nuclear accident at Shoreham requiring the evacuation of people within a l ten mile zone, how dangerous do you think it would be for you to spend a day working within the evacuation zone? ,

much more dangerous than normal fire fighting work 50%

somewhat more dangerous than normal fire fighting work 17 about equally dangerous 20 less dangerote 4 not dangerou. at all 5 Don't know 4 j TOTAL 100%

1 i

L _ _

Table 3 Continued

24. Do you agree or disagree that. helping with the evacuation of people from the emergency zone during a nuclear emergency should be the job of specially trained personnel rather than the job of volunteer firemen.

agree 70%

disagree 27

- ~ Don't know 3 TOTAL 100%

25. Do you agree or disagree that in the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham it would be the obligation of everyone to first look after the health and safety of their family.

agree 92%

disagree 5 Don't know 3 TOTAL 100%

26. Do you agree or disagree that only fire-men who have specifically volunteered should be expected to help with off site evacuation during a nuclear emergency.

agree 66%

disagree 30 Don't know 4 TOTAL 100%

27. Do you agree or disagree that in the event of a nucianc emergency at Shoreham, -

a volunteer fireman must place duty to the fire department over duty to family.

agree 17%

disagree 77 Don't know 6 TOTAL 100%

@OCIAL. DATA _ANALYSTSo INC.

- Table 3 Continund

28. Do you currently have any children living at home with you?

yes 65%

no 35 TOTAL 100%

29. How old is the youngest child living.at home with you?

under 5 40%

5 to 12 36 13 to 18 15 over 18 10 TOTAL 100%

32. What is your current marital status?

married 81%

single 16 widowed 1

. divorced or separated 2 TOTAL . 100%

33. If married, does your spouse currently /

work full time (30 hours3.472222e-4 days <br />0.00833 hours <br />4.960317e-5 weeks <br />1.1415e-5 months <br /> a week or more)?

yes 39%.

no 61 TOTAL 100%

i

34. What is the last grade of school that you completed?

some high school or less 7%

high school graduate 44 some college 30 college graduate 19 I ' TOTAL 100%

l t

l SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.

'. Tabic 3 Continusd

35. What is your age category?

under 25 13%

25-35 36 36-50 36 51-65 11 over 65 5 TOTAL 101%

36. What is your sex?-

male 98%

female 2-TOTAL -100%

TABLE 4 CORRELATES OF ATTITUDES TOWARDS EMERGENCY SERVICE

% Saying a fireman must place duty to

% Saying the fire they would department report to over duty duty quickly to family

1. For what fire district do you work?

Miller Place 71 18 Ridge 65 14 Riverhead 57 26 Rocky Point  ?, 53 14 Sound Beach 32 4

.[

4. For how many years have you worked with'this -

fire district?

one year or less 58 23 two to three 69 17 four to five 47 12 six to ten 53 10 more than ten 56 22

5. What is the Zip Code of your home address?

within 10 mile zone 51 14 outside of'10 mile zone 62 23

10. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near an airport?

very dangerous 62 12 dangerous 52 13 not too dangerous 57 19 FR6XRRSR 1Bfr,\SM REALYSTSn INC.

Tcblo 4 Continusd

% Saying a fireman must place duty to

% Saying the fire they would department report to over duty duty cuickly to family

11. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a mental hospital?

very dangerous 25 0 dangerous 54 20 not too dangerous 55 18

12. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a coal fired power plant?

very dangerous 67 0 ,

dangerous 62 18 not too dangerous 53 17

13. In general, how dangerous do you think it would be to live near a nuclear power plant?

very dangerous '43 9 dangerous , 58 13 not too dangerous 60 22

14. Would you describe yourself as:

a supporter of nuclear power plants as a means of providing electricity 63 12 an opponent of nuclear power plants 42 14 I haven't made up my mind yet on this issue 56 23

15. Do you think that LILCO should complete and operate the Shoreham nuclear power plant?

yes 62 20 no 46 14 I don't know 50 13 I

0 __ ___ _ ___

Tablo 4 Continu;d

% Saying a fireman must place duty to

% Saying the fire they would department report to over duty duty cuickly to family

16. During normal operation, which type of "

electricity plant pollutes the air the least?

an oil-fired plant 56 22 a coal-fired plant 47 21 a nuclear-fired plant 57 15 I am not sure 55 20

17. During normal operation does a nuclear power plant give off a dangerous level of radiation?

yes 58 27 no 60 18 I am not sure 42 14

19. How would you make sure that your family was safely out of the evacuation zone?

go home and drive your family to a safe place out of the evacuation zone 11 call home and tell your family to leave without you 9 l

l l some other way 17 i

20. Where would you go?

someplace in Suffolk County 50 16 76 7 someplace in Nassau County someplace in New York City 62 10 l

! some other place 44 9 you don't know 36 12 l

l 1

l StYdM F@ciFB TMa%YSTSo INC.

Table 4 Continutd

% Saying a fireman must pla'ce duty to

% Saying the fire they would department report to over duty duty cuickly to family

21. In terms of miles, about how far away is this place from your home?

10 miles or less 69 6 11 to 20 miles 77 8 21 to 30 miles 73 8 31 to 40 miles 56 6 41 to 50 miles -

50 0 more than 50 miles 42 '2

22. After your family was in a safe place would you return to the fire house to help with evacuation?

yes 62 14 no 17 5 I would try 48 9 Don't know ,

43 0

23. If there was a nuclear accident at Shoreham

( requiring the evacuation of people within a ten mile zone, how dangerous do you think it would be for you to spend a day working within the evacuation zone?

much more dangerous than normal fire fighting work 47 14 somewhat more dangerous than normal fire fighting work 54 13 about equally dangerous 63 26 less dangerous 77 23 not dangerous at all. 73 13 l 24. Do you agree or disagree that helping with ~

i the evacuation of people from the emergency l

zone during a nuclear emergency should be the job of specially trained personnel rather than the job of volunteer firemen.

agree 51 14 disagree 67 24 l

6 JJRh - ____ _

l Tablo 4 Continued

% Saying a fireman must place duty to

% Saying the fire they would department report to over duty

. duty quickly to family

25. Do you agree or disagree that in the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham it would be the obligation of everyone to first look after the health and safety of their family.

agree 54 14 disagree 93 60

26. Do you agree or disagree that only fire-men who have specifically volunteered should be expected to help with off site evacuation during a nuclear emergency.

agree 64 16 disagree 52 20

27. Do you agree or disagree that in the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham, a volunteer fireman must place duty to the fire department over duty to family.

agree 64 disagree 52

28. Do you currently have any children living at home with you?

yes 51 12 no 63 28

29. How old is the youngest child living at home with you?

under 5 51 13 5 to 12 49 10 l

13 to 18 57 4 over 18 56 29 t

I

Table 4 Continusd

% Saying a fireman must place duty to

% Saying the fire they would department report to over duty duty quickly to family

32. What is your current marital status?

married 55 16 single 59 24 widowed 100 100 divorced or separated 29 14

33. If married, does your spouse currently work full time (30 hours3.472222e-4 days <br />0.00833 hours <br />4.960317e-5 weeks <br />1.1415e-5 months <br /> a week or more)?

yes 60 15 no 51 16

34. What is the last grade of school that you completed?

some high school or less 57 19 high school graduate 57 23 some college 52 11 college graduate 54 15

35. What is your age category?

l under 25 62 8 i 25-35 52 16 36-50 55 18 51-65 58 13 over 65 64 57 i

36. What is your sex?

l male 56 17 female 40 20 l

l w

APPENDIX A METHODS AND PROCEDURES In the case of a nuclear accident at the Shoreham nuclear power plant it is possible that some of the personnel who would be expected to play a role in an evacuation plan might face significant role conflict. In the case of an accident, those people who are supposed to play a role in an evacuation plan would be torn between two conflicting roles. On the one hand, every individual has an obligation to his/her family during an emergency. On the other hand, emergency personnel would have an obligation to perform their specified duties during an emergency. We cannot simply assume that all people who are supposed to play a role in an emergency plan will actually show up for duty when the emergency occurs. In order to investigate this topic we were asked by Suffolk County to conduct studies to. determine the probability that various emergency personnel would report to duty to perform their emergency role, or would first seek to protect themselves and/or their family from any perceived danger.

Since no evacuation plan currently exist for Ehoreham, there was no precise way to designate those groups who would be expected to play a role in an evacuation. Most evacuation plans, however, do expect the police, volunteer firemen, and school bus drivers to play crucial roles. Other groups such as ambulance drivers and field sanitarians might also play crucial roles.

However, these latter groups are relatively small in size.

In order to help prepare an adequate emergency eva-

cuntion plcn, Suffolk County wanted to collcct dets which would indicate how crucial emergency personnel might react in an acci-dent situation. The County attempted to obtain the cooperation of the Suffolk County police, volunteer fire departments within 4 a ten mile area of the shoreham plant, and school districts within a ten mile area of the Shoreham plant. The aim was to interview policemen, volunteer firemen, and school bus drivers.' .

The Suffolk County police refused to' provide the County Executive's Of fice with a list of policemen with their home phone numbers because the release of this information was prohi-bited in their contract. Because there was no way to obtain the names and phone numbers of Suffolk County police we were unable to interview this crucial group. We did, however, obtain the cooperation of the school bus companies and school districts and volunteer fire departments, and were able to complete surveys with both school bus drivers and volunteer firemen.

School Bus Drivers Since some of the school districts were hesitant to release the names and telephone numbers of school bus drivers who drove for their district, but were willing to allow us to interview the school bus drivers at a pre-school orientation meeting, data from this group were collected by a self administered question-naire.

We obtained the cooperation cf the Riverhead Central. School District, which operates its own bus system and also serves several other school systems in the area, the Seaman Bus

\

Company which serves the Shoreham Wading-River School District, SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.

cnd tho Suburbic Buc Company. Thoco throo companico corvo tho following school districts: The Eastport Union Free School District, the Middle Island Central School District, the Riverhead Central School District, the Shoreham Wading-River Schcal District, and the South Manor Union Free School District of Brookhaven. An attempt was made to obtain the cooperation of the Coram Bus Company which provides drivers for the Rocky point School District. This bus company, however, did not provide us with a setting in Which we could administer the questionnaire I to their bus drivers. Thus, we were unable to obtain data from the approximately 25 drivers Who drive for the Rocky Point school system.

All the data were obtained on September 7, 1982. On that morning the Riverhead School District and the two bus companies which cooperated with the study held pre school orientation meetings for their bus drivers. One of our representatives attended each of these three sessions and administered the questionnaire to all those bus drivers who were in attendance.

Although some school bus drivers may have been absent from this orientation meeting and a small number may have not filled out the questionnaire, the survey data we have represent the opinions of virtually all of the bus drivers for tF" five school districts covered in this survey. The statistics we co-piled on how many bus drivers completed the questionaire in each of the three locations corresponded closely with the number of bus dri-vers we were told by the managers of the bus company would be in attendance at the meetings. Since virtually all of the bus dri-vers completed the questionnaire, we have a population of bus dri-O

vers for thoco fivo cchool dictricts rathor thcn a camplo. Wo, therefore, do not have to be concerned with whether or not the statistics generated by this study of school bus drivers are representative of the population of school bus drivers.

We completed interviews with 21 drivers for the Eastport Union Free School District, 111 drivers for the Middle Island Central School District, 62 drivers for the Riverhead Central School District, 30 drivers for the Shoreham Wading-River School District, 13 drivers for the South Manor Union Free School District of Brookhaven, and 9 drivers who drove either for other districts or for a combination of the above mentioned districts.

A total of 246 interviews were completed with school bus drivers.

.The questionnaire used in conducting this survey is reproduced in Appendix B.

Design of the Questionnaire The questionnaire used in this study was prepared by Dr. Stephen Cole, President of Social Data Analysts, Inc. in consultation with Dr. Kai Erikson, Professor of Sociology at Yale University. Dr. James Johnson, Jr., Assistant Professor of Geography at UCLA, alao provided comments on the first draft of

the questionnaire. A preliminary meeting was held on August 3rd between Drs. Erikson and Cole to discuss the purposes of the study and to pork on the questionnaire. After this meeting Dr.

Cole constructed a first draft of the questionnaire which was then sent to Drs. Erikson and Johnson. After Drs. Erikran and Johnson commented on the questionnaire an additional draft was prepared. We then pretested the questionnaire with nine school i

. _40-buo drivaro who workcd for oithor tho Stamnn Bua Compcny or the Riverhead Central School District. The pretest was admi-nistered by Ann Harriet Cole, Director of Field Research for Social Data Analysts, Inc. After the drivers filled out the questionnaire in the pretest, Mrs. Cole discussed with them the questionnaire and their reactions to it. On the basis of this pretest several changes were made in the questionnaire to make it more intelligible to typical school bus drivers. In addition, it became evident from the pretest that school bus drivers felt apprehensive about saying that in the case of an emergency they might first go home rather than report to work to drive the school bus. Several of the drivers who were interviewed in the pretest expressed fear that if it became known that they would not report to work during an emergency they might be fired from their jobs.

Although all the questionnaires were anonymous, it should be remembered that the questionnaires were administered in a work setting and in the presence of the supervisors of the school bus drivers. Given this setting which emphasized the importance of work and the possible fear that some of the dri-vers may have felt about saying that they would not report for work during a nuclear emergency, it is possible that the results obtained from this survey underestimate the proportion of bus drivers who would look af ter the needs of their family rather ,

than report to drive a school bus during a nuclear emergency.

After the questionnaires were filled out by the school bus drivers they were checked over by a research assistant to make sure that they had been filled out correctly. The data were

[

SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.

_41_

thcn entered onto the computer and after baing chsckcd for crroro the data were analyzed using the SPSS statistical program, Volunteer Firemen Through the efforts of the Suffolk County Executive's Of fice the cooperation of the Ridge Volunteer Fire Department, the Miller Place Volunteer Fire Department, and the Sound Beach Volunteer Fire Department were obtained. These fire departments provided the County Executive's Office with an up-to-date list of their current members. The Ridge list and the Miller Place list contained phone numbers. The Sound Beach list did not. We independently contacted the Sound Beach Fire Department and obtained the phone numbers for all the firemen from that depart-ment.

The Commissioners of the Rocky Point Fire Department had

' expressed some hesitancy to participate in the study. After a meeting, however, wkth Ann Harriet Cole, Director of Field Research for Social Data Analysts, Inc., the Commissioners of the Rocky Point Fire Department agreed to cooperate and provided us with a complete list of all the members of their department.

We also decided to include members of the Riverhead Volunteer Fire Department in this survey. Mrs. Cole met with the com-missioners of that department and obtained their cooperation. A significant part of the area served by the Riverhead Fire Department is within a ten mile zone of the Shoreham nuclear power plant and part of the area served by this fire department is outside the ten mile zone. We nonetheless believed it impor-tant to obtain information from members of this department.

An attempt was made to interview all members of the five SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.- _

fire departments included in the study. There were 83 members of the Ridge Department, 144 members of the Riverhea?

Department, 60 members of the Sound Beach Department, 110 mem-bers of the Rocky Point Department, and 70 members of the Miller Place Fire Department. The interviewing for this study was con-ducted on the telephone. Given the available time and resources to conduct this study. it was not possible for us to reach all of the 467 members of the five fire departments. We were ab. to complete interviews with 291 firemen, or a total of 62% of all firemen. Since the procedure used in this survey is not based upon sampling, but represents an attempt to interview an entire population, sampling statistics estimating the sampling error would not be appropriate. We should point out, however, that it is possible although there is no evident reason why it should be so, for those firemen whom we were not able to contact on the telephone to have somewhat different attitudes than those firemen whom we were able to contact on the telephone.

Table A-1 presents data showing the outcome of all the

! interviewing done for the firemen survey. of the 322 firemen we were able to contact on the telephone, only 32 or 10% refused to participate in the survey. The majority of the firemen for whom we did not complete interviews with we were unable to reach, receiving a no answer or busy signal on the four or more attempts we made to reach them.

TABLE A-1 l 1

OUTCOME FOR FIREMEN SURVEY l

River- Sound Rocky Miller Ridge head Beach Point Place Total I

Number completed 51 107 44 55' ' 34 291 Number not completed 32 37 16 55 36 176 no answer 10 7 3 14 11 45 busy (person not at home - call back - make appointment) 8 10 5 12 13 48 wrong phone number, phone disconnected 8 3 2 13 6 32 no longer a fireman 1 2 4 5 1 13

, refusal 5 12 1 9 5 32 other - 3 1 2 - 6 Total . 83 144 60 110 70 467 l

l

[

SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.

-44 All the interviewing was conducted from a rented telephone facility in Melville, New York. Interviewing was done on the evenings of September 28, September 30, and during the day on Saturday, October 2. Evening calls were made between the hours of 6:00 and 10:00 p.m. and Saturday calls were made between the hours of 10:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. All the interviewers were experienced and trained people who had previously worked for Social Data Analysts, Inc. Before the survey was begun the interviewers participated in a one hour training session in which the questionnaire was gone over.several times and explained to the interviewers. During the interviewing, there was always at least one trained supervisor present on the floor

• to check the questionnaires for accuracy and to listen in on interviews to make sure that the interviewers were in fact following the designated interview schedule.

Design of the Questionnaire The questionnaire used in this study was prepared by Dr. Stephen Cole, President of Social Data Analysts, Inc. in consultation with Dr. Kai Erikson, Professor of Sociology at Yale University. Dr. James H. Johnson, Jr., Assistant Professor of Geography at UCLA, also provided comments on the first draft of the questionnaire. After this meeting Dr. Cole constructed a first draft of tahe questionnaire which was sent to Drs. Erikson and Johnson. After Drs. Erikson and Johnson commented on the questionnaire an additional draft was prepared.

First, we conducted an informal pretest with the Riverhead fire commissioners. Mrs. Cole went over the questionnaire with

_45-them. Then a telephone pretest was conductsd by Dr. Stcphcn Colo who personally interviewed six firemen. (These six were not called to respond to the final questionnaire.) Based upon this pretest a final draft was prepared after consultation with Dr. Erikson.

After the interviews were completed the supervisor checked the survey instrument to make sure that it had been filled out properly. The data were then entered directly onto the computer and verified for entry errors. Analysis for the data was con-ducted using the SPSS statistical program.

I i

I

APPENDIX B SUFFOLK COUNTY SURVEY Schoolbus Drivers September, 1982 As you probably know, the Long Island Lighting Company has applied for a license that will enable it to operate its nuclear power

• ' plant at Shoreham. If this plant goes into operation it is essential to have an adequate. emergency evacuation plan in case there is a nuclear accident at the plant. Suffolk County is try-ing to develop such a plan and needs some information from you.

This questionnaire is completely annonymous and confidential.

Results of this survey will only be presented in statistical tables.

Please check the appropriate box.

1) For what school district do you drive?

l l Eastport Union Free School District l l Middle Island Central School District l 1 Riverhead Central School District l l 'Shoreham-Wading River School District I l South Manor Union Free School District of Brookhaven

2) For how many years have you driven for this district?

l l l less than one l I four to five l I one l j six to ten l

I I two to three l l more than ten

3) What is the Zip Code of your home address?

l l

_ c

47-

4) In general, how dangerous do you think it would b2 to livo naar each of the following:

Very Not too Dangerous Dangerous Dangerous an airport l l l l l l a mental hospital l I I I I I a coal fired power plant _ _ _

l l l l l l a nuclear power plant i I I I I I

5) Would you describe yourself as:

l l a supporter of nuclear power plants as a means of providing electricity.

L__J an opponent of nuclear power plants.

I I I haven' t made up my mind yet on this issue.

6) Do you thin's that LILCO should complete and operate the Shoreham nuclear power plant?

I l yes I l no j j I don't know.

7) During normal operation, which type of electricity plant pollutes the air the least?

I I an~ oil-fired plant l l a coal-fired plant i I a nuclear-fired plant l l I am not sure.

w

i

8) During normal operation dose a nucisar power plant give off a dangerous level of radiation?

l l yes l l no

'l l I am not sure.

9) Assuming that the Shoreham nuclear power plant is licensed and begins to operate, we are interested in knowing what you think you would do if there was an accident at the plant. Suppose that you had completed your morning run and there was an accident at Shoreham. Everyone living within ten miles of the plant was advised to evacuate. Schoolbus drivers were expected to help evacuate school children. What do you think you would do first?

l l First, I would report to work so that I could pick up school children in the evacuation zone and drive them to a shelter.

l l First, I would make sure' that my family was safely out of the evacuation zone. .

l l First, I would leave the evacuation zone to make sure that I was in a safe place.

I j First, I would do something else.

(Please specify)

10) If there was a nuclear accident at Shoreham requiring the evacuation of people within a ten mile zone, how dangerous do you think it would be for you to spend several hours driving school children out of the evacuation zone?

I l so dangerous that it would be life threatening l l very dangerous

, I l somewhat dangerous l l not dangerous l l I don't know.

11) Do you agree or disagree with the following otatcmsnto Don't Agree Dist;ree Know l l [-- l l l Evacuation of school children during a nuclear emergency should be done by specially trained personnel, not by school bus drivers.

l l l l l l In the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham it would be the obligation of everyone to first look after the health and

. safety of their family.

l l l l l l The best way to evacuate school children from an unsafe area is to have their parents pick them up at school.

j l l l l l In the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham, a schoolbus driver must place duty to drive the school bus over duty to family.

12) Do you currently have any children who live at home with you?

I l yes l l no

13) If you have children living at home with you,'how old is the youngest?

l I under 5 I l 13 to 18 l l 5 to 12 l { over 18

14) If you have children living at home with you, in what district do they attend school?

(School District)

15) What is your current marital status?

l l married l l widowed l l single l l divorced or separated w

i

16) If marricd, doas your spouco currently work full tima (30 hours3.472222e-4 days <br />0.00833 hours <br />4.960317e-5 weeks <br />1.1415e-5 months <br /> a week or more)?

l l yes l l no

17) What is the last grade of school that you completed?

l l some high school or less' l l high school graduate .

l l some college l l college graduate

18) What is your age category?

l l under 25 l l 25-35 l l 36-50 l l 51-65 l l over 65

19) What is your sex?

4 l l male l l female -

THANK YOU FOR YOUR COOPERATION

APPENDIX C SUFFOLK COUNTY SURVEY Volunteer Firemen September, 1982 Hello, my name is and I am calling for Suffolk County. We are doing a survey of volunteer firemen to 1 obtain information that will be useful to the County in making plans to deal with a possible nuclear emergency at the Shoreham nuclear power plant. The fire depart- 2 ment is cooperating with this research. They have given us a list of members. Do you still work with the fire department? 3

4. For how many years have you worked with this fire district?

0=less than one 4=six to ten l=one 5=more than ten 2=two to three 3=four to five DON'T. READ [9= Refuse 4

5-9 What is the zip code of your home address?

5 -

6 7 8 9

In genorcl, how dangoroue do you think it would bm to livo near each of the following:

(Categories for O. 10 to O. 13) 1=very dangerous 2= dangerous 3=not too dangerous DON'T READ [4= Don't Know

[9= Refuse

10. an airport 10

11. a mental hospital 11

12. a coal fired power plant 12

13. a nuclear power plant 13

14. Would you describe yourself as:

1=a supporter of nuclear power plants as a means of providing electricity.

2=an opponent of nuclear power plants, or 3=you haven't made up your mind yet on this issue?

DON'T READ [9= Refuse 14

15. Do you think that LILCO should complete and operate the Shoreham nuclear power plant?

l=yes DON'T READ [3= Don't Know 2=no [9= Refuse 15

16. During normal operation, which type of electricity plant pollutes the air the least:

l=an oil-fired plant 2=a coal-fired plant 3=a nuclear-fired plant 4=you're not sure DON'T READ [5=all about the same

[9= Refuse 16

17. During normal ocaration does a nuc1 car powar plant give off a dangerous level of radiation?

l=yes 2=no DON'T READ [3= Don't Know [9= Refuse 17

18. Assuming that the Shoreham nuclear power plant is licensed and begins to operate, we are interested in knowing what you think you would do if there was an accident at the plant. Suppose that you were at work on a weekday morning and there was an accident at Shoreham. Everyone living within ten miles of the plant was advised to evacuate. Volunteer firemen were expected to help with the evacuation. What do you think you would do first?

l=first, you would report to the fire station so that you could help with fire fighting and evacuation in the evacuation zone, or [ SKIP to Q. 23]

2=first, you would make sure that your family was safely out of the evacuation zone, or [ASK Q. 19 to 22]

3=first, you would leave the evacuation zone to make sure that you were in a safe place, or [ SKIP to Q. 23]

4=first, you would do something else

[ SKIP to Q. 23] Specify DON'T READ [5= Don't Know [ SKIP to Q. 23

[9= Refuse [ SKIP to Q. 23]

18

19. How would you make sure that your family was safely out

of the evacuation zone?

I l=go home and drive your family to a safe place l

out of the evacuation zone 2= call home and tell your family to leave without you 3=some other way (Specify)

D'ON'T READ [4= Don't Know

[9= Refuse 19

20. Where would you go?

1= someplace in Suffolk County 2= someplace in Nassau County 3= someplace In New York City 4=some other place (Specify) 5=you don't know [ SKIP to 0 22]

DON'T READ [9= Refuse [ SKIP to 0 22]

20

21. In terms of miles, about how far away is this place from your home?

1=10 miles or less 2=11 to 20 miles 3=21 to'30 miles 4=31 to 40 miles 5=41 to 50 miles 6-more than 50 miles DON'T READ [7= Don't Know

[9= Refuse 21

22. After your family was in a safe place would you return to the fire house to help with evacuation?

1=yes 2=no DON'T [3=I would try

[4= Don't Know READ [9= Refuse 22

23. If there was a nuclear accident at Shoreham requiring the evacuation of people within a ten mile zone, how dangerous do you think it would be for you to spend a day working within the evacuation zone?

l=much more dangerous than normal fire fighting work 2=somewhat more dangerous than normal fire fighting work 3=about equally dangerous 4=less dangerous 5=not dangerous at all DON'T READ [5= Don't Know [9= Refuse 23

. . Do you cgroo or disagroo with occh of the following ctatcm:nto.

(Categories for Q. 24 to Q. 27) -

l= agree 2= disagree DON'T READ [3= Don't Know

[9= Refuse

24. Helping with the evacuation of people from the emergency zone during a nuclear emergency should be the job of specially trained personnel rather than the job of volunteer firemen.

24

25. In the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham it would be the cbligation of everyone to first look after the health and safety of their family.

25

26. Only firemen who have specifically volunteered should be expected to help with off site evacuation during a nuclear emergency.

26

27. In the event of a nuclear emergency at Shoreham, a volunteer fireman must place duty to the fire department over duty to family.

27

28. Do you currently have any children living at home with you?

1=ye's 2=no [ SKIP to O. 32]

DON'T READ [9= Refuse 28

29. How old is the youngest child living at home with you?

l=under 5 2=5 to 12 3=13 to 18 4=over 18 DON'T READ [9= Refuse __

29 30-31 In what district do your children attend school?

30 (school district

[99=no children attending school] 31 SOCIAL DATA ANALYSTS, INC.

~. -

32. What is your current marital statuo?

l= married 2= single [ SKIP to O. 34]

3= widowed [ SKIP to O. 34]

4= divorced or separated [ SKIP to O. 34]

DON'T READ [9= Refuse 32

33. Does your spouse currently work full time (30 hours3.472222e-4 days <br />0.00833 hours <br />4.960317e-5 weeks <br />1.1415e-5 months <br /> a week or more)? -

l=yes 2=no DON'T READ [9= Refuse 33

34. What is the last grade of school that you completed?

l=some high school or less 2=high school graduate 3=some college 4= college graduate DDN'T READ [9= Refuse 34

35. What is your age category?

l=under 25 2=25-35 .

3=36-~50 4=51-65 5=over 65 DON'T READ [9= Refuse 35

36. What is your sex?

, 1= male 2= female l 36 l

l THA14K YOU FOR YOUR COOPERATION l

l l

l

!