ML20197E120

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Surrebuttal Testimony of Dt Haertgen on Behalf of State of Ny Re Hosp Evacuation Time Estimates.* Certificate of Svc Encl
ML20197E120
Person / Time
Site: Shoreham File:Long Island Lighting Company icon.png
Issue date: 05/26/1988
From: Hartgen D
NEW YORK, STATE OF
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ML20197E118 List:
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OL-3, NUDOCS 8806080088
Download: ML20197E120 (41)


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{{#Wiki_filter:- O DATE: May 26, 1988 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Before the Atomic Safety and Licensina Board In the Matter of )

                                           )

LONG ISLAND LIGHTING COMPANY ) Docket No. 50-322-OL-3

                                           )     (Emergency Planning)

(Shoreham Nuclear Power Station, )

                                           )

Unit 1) ) i SURREBUTTAL TESTIMONY OF DAVID T. HARTGEN, Ph.D., P.E., ON BEHALF OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK REGARDING HOSPITAL EVACUA"' ION TIME ESTIMATES I. Oualifications and Foundation Q. Please state your name and occupation. A. My name is David T. Hartgen. I am currently employed as a Principal Transportation Analyst with the New York State Department of Transportation. Q. Please state your qualifications. A. My professional qualifications are summarized on page 1 of my earlier testimony on this subject. See Direct Testimony of David T. Hartgen, Ph.D., P.E., on Behalf of the State of New York 2 h$k60gDOK 0

Regarding Hospital Evacuation Time Estimates (April 13, 1988). My resume is Attachment 1 to that testimony. Q. Please summarize the purpose of this surrebuttal testimony. A. This surrebuttal testimony: 1) reviews and criticizes the accuracy of the computerized estimates of hospital evacuation times recently developed by LILCO (see Rebuttal Testimony of Edward B. Lieberman and Diane P. Dreikorn on the Remanded Issue of the Bases and Accuracy of LILCO's Hosp!.tal Evacuation Time Estimates (May 18, 1988) ("LILCO Rebuttal Testimony"); 2) counares those estimates with mine; and 3) challenges the narrow range of tests conducted by LILCO. Q. Why is this surrebuttal testimony appropriate? A. LILCO has conducted a major new analysis on the hospital evacuation time issue, which was not even made known to the State of New York until five weeks after the parties filed their initial testimony on this issue. The text of LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony appears to suggest that this new analysis was initiated in early April, 1988 and was just recently provided to the State of New York. Therefore, it would not have been possible for me to anticipate the preparation of this material at the time I filed my own testimony.

The LILCO Rebuttal Testimony contains new analyses of my I I scenarios, and at least one new scenario. The new analyses of my ) scenarios and the new scenarios tested by LILCO are based on a previously unmentioned computer program of over 3000 programming lines which, as LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony at 8 states, is of , 1 such complexity that it takes four hours to run each scenario. Further, new analyses and scenarios may contain inputs and outputs that are different from the hand calculations used by LILCO to develop the time estimates in this Plan. The State of New York should be permitted to analyze LILCO's latest effort thoroughly, and offer its comments for the Board's consideration. II. Findinas Q. Have you reviewed LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony? A. Yes. Specifically, I have reviewed LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony and the tables attached thereto, as submitted by LILCO on May 18; a supplemental table provided by LILCO under cover of a letter dated May 19, 1988; and underlying data and more supplemental tables provided by KLD under cover of a letter dated May 23, 1988. I also attended a deposition by Mr. Lieberman on May 25. I have reviewed those documents, but the press of time has l somewhat hampered that review. I f l l

Q. Please describe your understanding of Mr. Lieberman's latest analysis. A. Mr. Lieberman developed a more sophisticated version of the "trace" spreadsheet that I used to conduct my earlier analyses, which I reported in my initial testimony. He detailed the paths of all hospital evacuation vehicles, not just the "trace" vehicles, and purports to have considered the "interdependency of vehicle trips upon one another."1 He also appears to have computerized the input origin-destination table and the route-distance-speed table, which were used to estimate travel times, and other inputs. He "verified" this model by checking its results against the hand calculations prepared earlier by LILco. Then, he conducted a number of tests, roughly corresponding to several of the lower-range tests which I had prepared, and a number of other tests. He then compared his results with my results. Q. Did Mr. Lieberman conduct his own analysis correctly? A. There are several problems in the analysis presented in LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony. These are: 1"Interdependency of vehicle trips" or "interconnection" refers to (a) tying together the runs of the same vehicle; or (b) tying together the runs of different vehicles. My simplified model considers the first type, while Mr. Lieberman's model considers both types. However, as noted below, this second type of interdependency does not materially affect the answer.

1. It is not clear whether this new model corrects for the missing patients from St. Charles Hospital, or accounts for the fact that Lydia Hall and Long Island Jewish Hospitals are not operating hospitals. No clear origin-destination table is provided. I note that Lydia Hall Hospital and Massapequa Hospital are still listed as destination hospitals by LILCO, (see Attachment 1 to LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony), although neither Lydia Hall nor Massapequa Hospital appears in the printouts.

(Massapequa Hospital was originally listed in LILCO's origin-destination table and was assigned patients, even though it did not appear in the relevant pages of the LILCO Plan. )

2. Even though the vehicles are reported to be interconnected, the model's input does not confirm that.

For instance, the base test shows an answer of 12.42. One of Mr. Lieberman's computer printouts (Attachment 1 hereto) shows that this time is for two vehicles leaving St. Charles Hospital (Table 1, page 4), but their prior trip was to Mather Hospital (not to the Suffolk Infirmary, as reported by LILCO in its earlier handwritten calculations). Further, the computer printout does not show how thece vehicles are connected to any other vehicles; it shows only that prior runs of a these vehicles are connected to later runs.

3. A particularly serious problem is the apparent assignment of some vehicles to be at two locations at the same time.

For instance, page 4 of Table 1 of LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony (Attachment 1 hereto) shows that the two ambulances involved in the trace left Brentwood at hr. 11.21 for the final run to St. Charles Hospital (noted as trips 46 and 45 on page 4 of Table 1) . These vehicles arrived at Brentwood at 10.71, from trips #10 and 18. However, on p. 2 of Table 1, trips #10 and 68 are shown as arrivina at Good Samaritan Hospital at 10.71. Therefore, the printout shows that the vehicles are in two places at the same time. This is also shown in Attachment 2 hereto, which is a drawing of the vehicles' movements. The discrepancy is shown as an identical time (10.71) at Brentwood and Good Samaritan. There are at least three possible explanations for this phenomenon:

a. Page 2 of Table 1 is wrong, and the vehicles are actually at Brentwood at 10.71. If this is the case, the patients are also at Brentwood, and must be transported to a reception hospital. So, the trips between this reception

hospital and Brentwood are missing. This causes an error of at least 1 hour (the round-trip distance from Good Samaritan to Brentwood is about 14 miles) in the trace, and possibly in all other trips as well. In other words, the evacuation time is low by about an hour.

b. Page 4 of Table 1 is wrong, and the vehicles are at Good Samaritan at 10.71, but then are dispatched directly from there to St. Charles.

This explanation is consistent with the note on the bottom of the third page of Attachment i hereto (that Good Samaritan is now considered a dispatch point). But, if Good Samaritan is a dispatch point, the trip from Good Samaritan to St. Charles takes 0.85 hrs (12.06-11.21) according to page 4 of Table 1, or only 0.05 hours longer than the trip from Brentwood to St. Charles according to the handwritten calculations. Since Good Samaritan, Brentwood, and St. Charles are essentially on a straight line, (see Attachment 2 hereto) this means that a trip of 7 miles is accomplished in 0.05 hours, or 3 minutes. This requires a speed of 140 mph.

c. Page 2 of Table 1 is correct. The vehicles are at Good Samaritan at 10.71 and are dispatched directly to St. Charles, but in bypassing Brentwood they save 0.33 hours reprocessing time, so the trip to St. Charles is 1.35 hours (12.06 - 10.71), according to page 4 of Table
1. If this is the case, then the unload time at Good Samaritan is missing, and page 4 of Table 1 is incorrect.

Whichever of these explanations is the correct one, it casts extreme doubt on the accuracy of this latest LILCO model. Since numbers on the trace appear to be incorrect, the other numbers cannot be trusted. This phenomenon ( a vehicle at 2 locations at the same time) also appears in Table 3 of LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony (Attachment 3 hereto). Pages 1 and 3 of Table 3 show that one ambulance (this is the ambulance involved in the longest ovacuation time - the trace ambulance) is simultaneously at Brentwood and Huntington Hospital at 12.30 hours. Thesehlocations are approximately 15 miles apart. Similar examples exist in other printouts, for instance, Table 2 of Lieberman's Rebuttal Testimony. The same three explanations noted above are possible, but the point is the same - LILCO's l

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hasty analysis cannot be trusted.

4. The longest time for the base case (12.42) is now associated with a different trace, (i.e., a different vehicle is the last to cross the EPZ) than under the handwritten calculations, but the time is virtually identical to the previously reported time (12.40, as corrected by me). Therefore, the interconnection of vehicles, which could change the trace (if in fact interconnection has been accounted for) , does not make a difference in the final answer, because another path has very similar times.
5. Mr. Lieberman's model cannot be verified in the manner stated. Thet verification involves only the comparison of the model outputs with the hand-calculations, not with actual vehicles run times on streets. In the language of modeling, Mr. Lieberman's tool is internally valid since it duplicates the calculations, but not externally valid since it was not verified in the field.

Q. Using this new model, Mr. Lieberman concludes that your results are not valid. What does your assessment show? l A. Mr. Lieberman asserts (LILCO Rebuttal Testimony at 2) that my earlier tests did not "properly represent the analysis and

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methodology that was performed for LILCO" because my tests were 1

 "based on an invalid assumption that a trace limited to the last vehicles to evacuate patients .  . . is the proper way to perform a wide variety of sensitivity studies."    Mr. Lieberman's view is that since the assignment of vehicles must interconnect the vehicles, my analysis (which does not interconnect them) is invalid.

It is not true that my analysis did not interconnect the vehicle runs, as suggested by Mr. Lieberman. My trace model specifically connected the three runs for the two longest path vehicles, but did not interconnect these vehicle runs with other vehicle runs. I recognized this, and in fact suggested that LILCO develop such a model. My testimony was intended to assess the accuracy and bases of the evacuation times, not to develop a whole new model. Therefore, I used a simplified approach. In criticizing my approach, LILCO's witness has apparently lost sight of the purpose of my original testimony. That purpose was to demonstrate that LILCO's criginal manual computations were based on a set of assumptions which might not hold true in an emergency, and that variations in those assumptions could lead to substantially different evacuation times. Thus, my trace tested other assumptions. Testing these other assumptions is important because a prudent planner would need to rely on the information that is generated from them.

Even using this simplified approach, I obtained virtually identical answers to Mr. Lieberman's analysis. Contrary to Mr. Lieberman's conclusion, I found that Mr. Lieberman's own analysis, conducted with a complex computer spreadsheet, essentially verified my estimates of evacuation times when provided with similar assumptions. This is shown in the table set forth in Attachment 4 hereto. The table shows the following:

1. Mr. Lieberman obtained essentially the same "base" answer (12.42) as I did (12.40). The difference is 0.16%, or 12 2 minutes even though his model has a different trace.
2. Mr. Lieberman's test of my Scenario B (reduce all speeds by 3-5 mph) produces essentially the same answer (13.88) as I obtained (14.00). The difference is 0.86%, or 7.2 minutes, even though his test has a different trace.
3. Mr. Lieberman's "lower bound" test used a different set of speeds than my test used. I revised my "lower bound" test to use the same speeds as Mr. Lieberman's, and I obtained essentially the same answer (11.35) as he obtained (11.20). The difference is 1.32%, or 9.0

minutes. This is shown in Attachment 5 hereto.

4. In one case, my Scenario A (LIE 10 mph outbound, 25 inbound, other roads 15 out and 20 in), Mr. Lieberman reports a slightly different answer (14.49) than I report (14.54) but for a different trace. This is a difference of 0.34%, or 3 minutes. His description of this test (see LILCO Rebuttal Testimony at 10) is not clear to me, and it seems that he may have used some different inputs than I used.

With respect to scenario A, Mr. Lieberman argues that it is "unsupportable" to assume a LIE level-of-service F operating speed of 10 mph for the entire 12 hours (LILCO Rebuttal Testimony at 10). However, this evacuation will, in my judgment, be more congested than peak commuter hours or recreational peak hours normally experienced on Long Island, and therefore a very long congestion period is probable. In any case, prudence would dictate that it be tested; we both did so, and obtained similar answers.

5. In another cace, my Scenario E (increase expressway speeds by 5 mph) , Mr. Lieberman reports a result of 1 12.25, compared with my result of 11.38, a difference of 7.10%. He attributes the higher time to higher queueing
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delays which reduce the benefits of higher speeds. Since the queue data is not shown separately in Mr. Lieberman's output, it is not possible for me to verify that this is the explanation. But if that is the case, more extensive analysis would be warranted to develop plans that would reduce the effect of queues.

6. Mr. Lieberman chose not to report tests of my high-end scenarios, dismissing them as "absurd" and "not credible." See LILCO Rebuttal Testimony at 12. A more prudent approach would have been to test them to confirm or deny my results. In fact, even though LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony at 13 states that my scenario D is not "worthy of further consideration", LILCO did test my scenario D (LIE 6 mph, others 15 mph) , and obtained 18.70 hours as an evacuation time, compared with my 20.58 figure. This is reported in LILCO's Table 5, which we learned of through discovery, although Mr. Lieberman did not include it in LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony. Since LILCO declined to provide the input data for this test, it is not clear to me that these results are strictly comparable. But the comparison does show that with lower speeds, LILCO's own model produces very high hospital evacuation times.
7. Mr. Lieberman also conducted a test using 13 -

lower (than 100%) hospital occupancies for St. Charles (78.2%), John T. Mather (80.3%) and Central Suffolk (84.0%). According to Table 12, transmitted under cover of a letter dated May 19, 1988, the longest times in this test now are: Evac. Time Central Suffolk Hospital 11.87 John T. Mather Hospital 11.68 St. Charles Hospital 11.81 If these time a 9 to be believed, a roughly 20% reduction in the number of patients to be transported leads to a reduction in time of about 2/3 hour, or about 6%, compated to the baseline test. The tests show, apparently, that the evacuation of hospitals is so low in priority (4th) that even a significant reduction in the number of patients to be evacuated still results in the use of almost 12 hours to evacuata the hospital patients. This new model still assumes a fixed origin-destination table, that is, it presumes tnat no changes will be made in the assignment of evacuating patients from evacuating hospitals to reception hospitals, once the evacuation starts. In my prior testimony I expressed concern about this apparent rigidity and my concern that it could lead to vehicles being assigned to full hospitals. 14 -

In addition, the new model contains a new origin-destination table, that has been revised from the one used in the hand calculations. The new table (1) does Dot contain any bus trips ( a total of 164 patients were previously transported by bus) (2) appears to have dropped the use of Brunswick, Central General, Middle Island, Massapequa, Nassau Co. Medical Center, Hempstead, Lydia Hall, Mercy, Nassau, South Nassau Community and St. Francis Hospitals. In the prior table these hospitals received 527 patients. It is not clear where these patients are assigned now. The new origin-destination table appears to use only the closest hospitals, thereby shortening the travel distances and the evacuation times. Even though Mr. Lieberman used a more sophisticated Lodel than I used, and the models are built on slightly different assumptions, he obtained essentially the same answers for 3 of tha 4 tests ho compared, and the remaining test apparently has difforcut inputs; and one other test may have different inputs. Q. What does this mean? A. It means that Mr. Lieberman's model demonstrates, as my trace method demonstrates, that hospital evacuation times are highly sensitive to assumptions about travel speeds. Q. Given that, what is your opinion of the overall conclusion by , l f 1

l Q. Given that, what is your opinion of the overall conclusion by Mr. Lieberman (Egg LILCO Rebuttal Testimony at 17) that ". . . the ETE's exhibit a relatively narrow envelope of uncertainty, in the neighborhood of plus or minus 12 percent"? A. Mr. Lieberman's overall conclusion is unsound because it is I based on a limited sensitivity analysis of a narrow range of inputs. It is not surprising, therefore, that he obtained a narrow range of outputs. When he tested other scenarios corresponding to my tests that result in longer evacuation times, he also obtained a wider range of answers, up to almost 19 hours. This of course assumes that the individual tests are accurate, which as noted above, cannot be verified. In other words, the narrow range of assumptions inputted by Mr. Lieberman produced the narrow range of outputs. It is important that the Board understand that the "accuracy and bases" of the hospital evacuation time estimates are not thoroughly assessed by this limited set of tests. Q. What in the practical usefulness of Mr. Lieberman's new analysis? A. At this time, very little. First, the hospital evacuation . l l time estimates in the LILCO Plan are based on LILCO's manual l calculations, and do not reflect any of the sensitivity analyses

which LILCO and the State of New York have subsequently conducted. Thus, the Plan still has only limited usefulness as a tool for emergency responders because the estimates stated in the Plan are based on only one set of assumptions. If the conditions actually existing in an emergency are different than those LILCO has assumed in its Plan, then the estimates will not be useful in choosing protective actions in a real emergency. Second, it is unclear whether Mr. Lieberman intended his model to assist in choosing hospital protective actions at the time of an emergency, based on inputs reflecting conditions (traffic speeds, etc.) actually axisting at the time of an emergency. If so, his model is inadequate because, according to his testimony, it takes four hours to run one scenario. There may not be the luxury of that much time during a real emergency. Q. What other comments do you have? i l A. LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony does not address many of the other concerns raised by the State of New York in its testimony. These include: I l t

1. Concerns about the number of patients being evacuated.
2. Concerns about route assignments.
3. Concerns about full reception hospitals.
4. Concerns about closed or unlisted reception hospitals.

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5. Concerns about routed distances.
6. Concerns about directions to drivers.
7. Concerns about the failure to communicate with vehicles en route.
8. Concerns about apparently very long travel distances for residents of Central Suffolk Hospital.
9. Concerns about vehicle speeds.
10. Concerns about operating speed on the Long Island Expressway.

These issues are more than just "discrepancies." LILCO's Rebuttal Ter:timony leaves these considerations unaddressed. In conclusion, the Board still cannot have confidence in the accuracy and bases of the hospital evacuation times because the tests conducted so far have numerous apparent internal problems, are too narrow in input range, and too many other important issues have not been addressed. III. Summary Q. Please summarize your findings. A. Mr. Lieberman's new analysis is based on a new computer model that has not been subjected to close scrutiny. A preliminary scan suggests it does not interconnect vehicles as reported. -

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The tests appear to have vehicles in two places at once, a serious defect. And, some of the model's basic inputs appear to have been changed. Nevertheless, the new model produces essentially the same results, for comparable inputs, as does my trace approach. Therefore, rather than rendering my results invalid, it renders them valid. The range of tests reported for the new model is narrow, and therefore the range of outputs is narrow. A wider range of inputs, when tested, did in fact produce a wider range of outputs, up to 19 hours. LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony does not address numerous other concerns expressed by the State of New York in its initial testimony. In summary, LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony does not address the State of New York's concerns about the "accuracy and bases of hospital evacuation times." The State of New York's conclusion that the evacuation times are unreliable is therefore unchanged. Q. Does that conclude your testimony? A. Yes. m' g i . t RCQ FACILITY CODE NAME Association for the Help of Retarded Children HRC) Robert Sansone ICF ARS Work Activities Center AWA Residence AHR Little Flower Children Services .

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  • 87
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  • 84
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  • 27
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  • 21
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9. ele 9 f see 5 t rier this bisgett h I'oint Special Fettlitr 1st f acility to t f .c a lit y Pt s or ka W9ve this Run fbee Farel F.<tist.

L.n Msober trove Code f o4 ? Numb er kva Musber Irpe huse Arrival toJe teswe Ar tavel lesse (Fl N.ne Artsv41 L eese Name A r rivel t es.e nsae Ar r as61 I N51 15 ' kk 4.33 4.83 5.59 4.01 6.07 i N55N 8.33 8.80 - K51 33 2 FR 4.33 4.83 5.59 tt 9.32 i 6.01 6.07 NS5N 8.38 8.83 N5! 34 2 FF 4.33 4.83 5.59 6.Cl 4.07 Ik f.la H552 8.13 8 . 84' - i ESI 32  ; kn 4.33 4.31 5.* t ER 1.It 6.01 4.07 NSSN 8.38 8.80 l M5I 27 14 4.50 64 f.la 1 5.00 5. 74 4.G9 4.14 8.53 6H5 I ' N5! NV4N 8.84 - t4 f.51

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  • 2 8.38 11. 16 FSI 8.71 8.74 WV4W  !!.15 11.49 - '

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r . .. Attachment 4 Comoarison of Hospital Evacuation-Time Estimates e Evacuation Times (h) Dif Scenario Description Hartgen Lieberman (%) Base Rev. 9 assumptions 12.40 12.42 -0.16 A. LIE 10 mph out, 25 in 14.54 14.49 +0.35 others 15 and 20 B. Reduce all speeds by 14.00 13.88 +0.86 3-5 mph C. Reduce all speeds by 13.07 - - 10 percent D. LIE 6 mph out, 15 in, 20.58 18.70 +10.05 others 15 and 20 E. Increase Expy speeds 11.38 12.25 -7.10 by 5 mph F. "lower bound" (high 8.97 - - speeds) 11.35* 11.20 +1.34 G. 2nd Trip to Huntington 12.72 - - Hosp. instead of V.A.

             "Table      Lower occupancy rates           -

11.87 - 12" for evacuating hospitals **

  • Recalculated using the LILCO speeds on p. 15-16 of LILCO's Rebuttal Testimony.
              ** Transmitted by letter, May 19, 1988.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         . . l MTIKf@@7 $

tale 5/24;lf astrstricted speeds versics 2: 50!!: Adverse speeds 527 edlasted 5est cf Liet. 2/18/II 5:csar10 3I0ttikt 83SFITAL [110517:08 PGLL 10 R:LI-RAI. TInf fiX1Cits - 50tIARIO: 1 Assmer: Rex tl.e: 11.35 L. 12.9 onn Norsal"""""*" "' "'56sser Adverse"' *"ulster derse" Ictes Cusslative 21strib Ites Length scale 21st. Speed Tise 5ts Tise 5;eed fase sta fine 71st $ss ist Distance sus time there 17.1 Antal ariise at Irests. 2.50 2.59  ! 2.50 2.50 26 2.66 Itput distrhtiss 8.8. 2.58 at treat. 11.2 Processts; at Br 6.50 3.80 , W ~ 3.00 ~~E5 3.19 Precessing tise 6.01 3.00 tracess 11.96 3.12 at 5.1. 17.3 Travel ts suff.1sfits. 17.16 f.92 3.52 144 4.14 1.21 8.40 17.56 4.25 lead 8t.111 - 1.16 25.t0

  • 8.07 3 3. 4.' t.t 8.06 f 19.41 4.48 at 1F1 lary L11 56-66 14.67 55.te t.21 45.@ 9.33 8. 3 47.27 6.11 at Bec la a ist/LI av.  !.58 f.51 1.53 6.78 9.23 38.6 8.85 8. 41.27 6.52 salcad 61.35 1.t3 at treat.

11.4 tcading 8.33 4.25 0.58 4.64 f5 8.93 61.35 1.28 prcress 0.17 4.81 1 5.11 Cocus, saclear 79.31 7.6% st 1.1. Qcese at 5.1. (?) 19.31 .. l.03 lead 8.65 *3 tiry at IF. 17.5 Tre to 171 keusdry 1.53 6.10 0.23 4.41 30.00 8. 4.t6 .05 5.16 18.84 11.5 .B Biry to terpt Easp. 27.79 1,72 6.19 I 4 1.51 f.68 5.85 . 7.A. 8:sp. Itt.62 0.99 at tec E3 111 46-55 15. lt 28.50 9.78 45.50 0 5 4.37 108.62 e 11 ( + sold LII 55-53 2.42 20.08 0.12 45.83 8.0 9.96 IG 18.12 at trest. Instes/ Pal /lictist 16.53 C.59 9.17 12.t8 6.01 49.60 0.24 0.26 122.13 16.37 process Ctter 138.17 14.99 at It Cta 138.97 11.32 q e Icna 17.7 ucatterlag 6.19 5.51 5.85 M; nit. at 5.1. Ilf.It 11.35 at EF1 td 17.1 Est:ad I.33 6.52 .58 6.C' ') 6.38 lance 17.18 Tre to treatsscd. 14.81 8.51 7.93 36 6. .8 6.75 Ctter utl860klFal/$ssles 3.11 25.00 C.31 43.00 8' 8.26 Percest Distritaticas III $3-55 2.42 55.08 0.64 45.88 .5 0.56 Ites alstasce t fase t It.111 1.89 25.80 0.88 33.09 8. 8.47 Strt-disp 3.58 9.31 11.11 Frscessing 6.25 7.28 8. .62 8.21 1.03 Tri-espty 83.34 8.51 2.95 5.26 I Leadist 8.11 0.t9 13.3 Trv to saff. Isf. 17.96 t.38 7.66 8.41 8.46 7.49 frv-f all 59.14 8.43 2.96 8J6 f t.111 1.76 25.t8 8.07 39.60 0.06 .86 uesing 0.38 6.83 til 56-66 14.67 55.00 8.27 45.09 8.33 . sloads, 0.66 8.66 It 181/klar 1.53 15.08 9.t4 38.80 8.05 8.8 ] TOTAL 140.04 1.10  !!.15 1.58 O.81 8.18 Do:ssestatica as: lear. Caese at 1.1. 23.6 Leading 9.33 8.88 8.58 W, J.8.534 9.87 23.5 Trv to IFI birI 1.53 35.00 9.50 f.05 32.58 O 58 0.05 9.12 23.8 frv ts tecpt. sost. 27.71 0.94 0.99 96 93 8.61 1.84 LII 66-55 15.68 10.33 f.35 45.e0 8. 6.31 LII 55-53 2.42 43.00 t.06 45.00 8. - 4.06 siste /Fal/1601Ji 16.50 4.59 9.11 28.09 6.41 40.00 8. 4 8.26 Other Quese at lecit. Ecsp (?) 0.29 .47 8. 8 tocks unclear 23.9 #sicating 8.33 9.61 .56 II.20 8. 3 la.it , 21.18 frv to trestscod 14.tl 8.51 10.12 8.36 8.34 11.22 Cther st/s&ct/Fal/sastes 9.77 25.CO O.!! 40.85 4 .26 LII 53-55 2.42 55.00 a.te 15.tt 0.05 .56 f t.111 1.19 625.03 0.08 38.68 8. IT

  • 23.11 frocessing I.25 15.37 8.25 la.it- 8. 7 11.88 5t. Charles Ecsp. 3'rd gave St.) try to St. Charles 16.27 9.63 10.9) A.4(r -I .. 8.41 11.51
11. 111 3.11 25.28 5.15 39. ( 8.12 9.13 II. 367 18.40 25.00 9.42 48.T 87 8.28 It 25t!Nytt/8 csp 2.12 35.00 9.t6 38.h4 8.81 8.tl 10.4 Lead 1:3 0.33 11.12 8.50 11.76 4.3 2.54 SC.5 frv to 171 tir{ 2511.79 Issp/syrt/I f.63 1.87 35.68 0.83 11.35 00 8.84 1 0.64 '2 54
 .6 DATE: May 26, 1988 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Before the Atomic Safety and Licensina Board I'n the Matter of                    )
                                                                   )

LONG ISLAND LIGHTING COMPANY ) Docket No. 50-322-OL-3

                                                                   )       (Emergency Planning)

(Shoreham Nuclear Power Station )

                                                                   )

Unit 1) ) i CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I hereby certify thei copies of the "Surrebuttal Testimony of David T. Hartgen, Ph.D., P.E., on Behalf of the State of New York Regarding Hospital Evacuation Time Estimates" have been served on l the following this 26th day of May 1988 by U.S. Mail, first l class, except as noted by asterisks. l l Mr. Frederick J. Shon Spence W. Perry, Esq. Atomic Safety and Licensing Board William R. Cumming, Esq. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of General Counsel, Washington, D.C. 20555 Federal Emergency Management Agency 500 C Street, S.W., Room 840 Washington, D.C. 20472 Dr. Jerry R. Kline Mr. James P. Gleason, Chairman Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Atomic Safety and Licensing Board U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 Washington, D.C. 20555

Anthony F. Earley, Jr. , Esq. Joel Blau, Esq. General Counsel Director, Utility Intervention Long Island Lighting Company N.Y. Consumer Protection Board 175 East Old Country Road Suite 1020 Hicksville, New York 11801 Albany, New York 12210 Ms. Elisabeth Taibbi Mr. Donald P..Irwin Clerk Hunton & Williams Suffolk County Legislature 707 East Main Street Suffolk County Legislature P.O. Box 1535 Office Building Richmond, Virginia 23212 Veterans Memorial Highway Hauppauge, New York 11788 Mr. L.F. Britt Stephen B. Latham, Esq. Long Island Lighting Company Twomey, Latham & Shea Shoreham Nuclear Power Station 33 West Second Street North Country Road Riverhead, New York 11901 Wading River, New York 11792 Ms. Nora Bredes Docketing and Service Section Executive Director Office of the Secretary Shoreham Opponents Coalition U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 195 East Main Street 1717 H Street, N.W. Smithtown, New York 11787 Washington, D.C. 20555 Adrian Johnson, Esq. Hon. Patrick G. Halpin New York State Department of Law Suffolk County Executive 120 Broadway, 3rd Floor H. Lee Dennison Building Room 3-16 Veterans Memorial Highway New York, New York 10271 Hauppauge, New York 11788 MHB Technical Associates Dr. Monroe Schneider 1723 Hamilton Avenue North Shore Committee Suite K P.O. Box 231 San Jose, California 95125 Wading River, New York 11792 E. Thomas Boyle Lawrence Coe Lanpher, Esq. Suffolk County Attorney Kirpatrick & Lockhart Building 158 North County Complex 1800 M Street, N.W. Veterans Memorial Highway South Lobby - Ninth Floor Hauppauge, New York 11788 Washington, D.C. 20036 Mr. Jay Dunkleburger Edwin J. Reis New York State Energy Office U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Agency Building #2 Washington, D. C. 20555 Empire State Plaza Albany, New York 12223

I

Mr. James P. Gleason Douglas J. Hynes Chairman Town Board of Oyster Bay Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Town Hall 513 Gilmoure Drive Oyster Bay, New' York 11771 Silver Spring, MD 20901 David A. Brownlee, Esq. Mr. Philip McIntrie Kirkpatrick & Lockhart FEMA 1500 Oliver Building 26 Federal Plaza Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15222 New York, New York 10278 Mr. Stuart Diamond Adjuicatory File Business / Financial Atomic Safety and Licensing NEW YORK TIMES Board Panel Docket 229 W. 43rd Street U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission New York, New York 10036 Wacleington, D.C. 20555 e ,
                                              ' 'l ~ . l< < %L Yb .e.S&-f Martha E. Radley                           .,

Keyboard Specialist NYS Dept. of Economic Development Alfred E. Smith Office Building 17th Floor Albany, New York 12225 (518) 474-1273

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