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Forwards Ny State Board on Electric Generation Siting & Environ 800211 Opinion & Order Vacating Previously Granted Certificate.Denies Application & Closes Proceeding
	ML19294B866
Person / Time
Site:	Sterling
Issue date:	02/14/1980
From:	Voigt H; LEBOEUF, LAMB, LEIBY & MACRAE
To:	Rosenthal A; NRC ATOMIC SAFETY & LICENSING APPEAL PANEL (ASLAP)
References
	NUDOCS 8003060223
	Download: ML19294B866 (31)
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~ t Alan S. Rosenthal, Esq. FEB 191980 > I 05 Chairman, Atomic Safety and ga the sed 20 Licensing Aeoeal Board E Id** O U.S. Nuclear 'R'egulatory 6 IU" Commiss2.on g

Washington, D.C. 20555 Re: Rochester Gas and Electric Corporation, et al.

(Sterling Power Project, Nuclear Unit No. 1)

Dear Mr. Chairman:

On February 11, 1980, the New York State Board on Electric Generation Siting and the Environment issued its opinion and order in Case 80005 vacating the previously-granted certificate for Sterling. A copy of the opinion is enclosed.

In light of the views expressed in .the enclosed opinion, we have been instructed not ro participate in the consolidated hearings on certain radon issues scheduled to begin on February 26.

Very truly yours, Enclosure cc w/ enc.: Michael C. Farrar, Esq. .

Richard S. Salzman, Esq.

Dr. John H. Buck Dr. W. Reed Johnson - . ~

Docketing and Service Section . ..... %

Jay Si-lberg, Esq.

Troy B. Conner, Jr., Esc. '

Stepnen Schinki, Esq. 80030602 9

.. D.t i ,

Alan S. Rosenthal, Esq.

February 14, 1980 Page 2 cc w/o enc.: Ms. Sharon Morey Ms. Sue Reinert Mr. Chauncey Kepford Mr. David Caccia Bernard Bordenick, Esq.

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CASE 30005 - Application by Rcchester Gas and Electric C _ _- g* .. = "_ ^. .a. m .. " e.".=_' _# --

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-" v-o~c _' _" , C =..c.e a..d Reckland Utilities, Inc., Central Eudson Gas

& Electric Corporation and Niagara Mohawk Power Corpcration for a certificate cf ~

environmental compatibility and public need to construct an 1150 MW standardized nuclear

, power plant in the Town of Sterling, Cayuga Cour.cy , New York.

OPINION AND ORDER VACATING CERTI_7ICATE, DENYING APPLICATION AND CLOSING PROCEEDING y 1

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? age NZID FOR ADDITIONAL CAPACITY 3 S u c. c. i v. Uncertainties 4 Demand Forecas: Uncertainties 5 CONCLUSION 12 ORDER 18 A??ENDICES Dr JS_;.Im.

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m;~ - * -cve At a session of the New York State Ecard on Elec.ric Generation 3 _4-__4._.g a.,.d -.k.a. _T . . v _d -.

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the Sterling-SNUPPS Generating

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Albanv on Januarv. 23, 1980.

EOARD YEMBERS PRESENT:

Anne F. Mead, Chair::an, Alternate for Charles A. Zielinski, Chairman, Public Service Commission "ae_.b,e Do4e., .a._=-..=--

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Flacke, Cecrd.ssioner, Department of Environmental Conservation G l e.".a .r . _="c_."_=, .I

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David Axelred, M.D., Com issioner, D e ar . .a".'- o_'..=-.=._'.".

~ g (j k J ; ' k>U Dr. William E. Seymour, Alternate for William D. Eassent, Commissioner, D ef a - ~..e .". . o ' u^^.~..~..a _- " a ,

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David 3. Weinstein, Ad Hoc Member CASE 80005 - Application by acchester Gas and Electric Corporation on behalf of itself, Orange and Rockland Utilities, Inc., Central Hudson Gas

& Elec :~ic Corpcration and Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation for a certificate of e .g y 4 -v ....le.. - = _' s. . .'.." = - _i b _4 _'- _" -" a..d ,- uk _' _i c .a.e --

. ad to construct an 1150 MW standardized nuclear power County, New York.

plant in the Town of Sterling, Cavuc.a .

O.D".FON AND

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. - - - - _ rv N n.vD s 4 C..~n e~ _ v.. C .3 Rn C.e..r.D..r h.G (Issued February 11, 1980)

APPEARANCES: See Opinion and Crder issued January 11, 1978

CASI 30005 By order issued May 4, 1978, we suspended opera icn e

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_ - .4 ,.., n now under consideration in Case 50007 is an alternative available to fill Niagara

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-" 4 so"-es ..'=va now been received frem the ac.c.licants r the Public Service Cer-ission staff, the Censumer Protection Board, the Genesee Val. le.v Pec.cles ' Power Coalitioni Ecolcgy Action of Oswego r and the Wes: 3 ranch Conservation Association.

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question relating to current projections of peak lead and available capacity to meet that lead: what electric supply and demand is expected to be for the State and for each of w.e 3s..,4.,.e,

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i peracc. crem tn.e care or. . . .

nas cecision.

. The ferecasts submitted by the Sterling participants and the other members of the New Ycrk ?cwer Pool in Case 27319 were exhaustively reviewed in that case. Alternative forecasts were submitted by the PL- and C?3 staffs ( ."t cinti.v) r a Bos: On based crganiza, ion known as the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) , and a group of econometricians at Cornell. These forecasts provided the raw material the parties have used to draf their "~need" arguments.

The d '. . .::erences .: t.s.e data bases and tecnn:c.ues usec. . .

orecas

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.uture c.emanc were cause :.cr 3 vely c,ebate a=cag the fore-casters in Case 27319. Without question, an.y attemp: to forecast peak demand and available supply is subiec: to s considerable uncertainty.

CASE 80005 c o ,91 o

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'"h e resulting base supply foreCas; is shCwn at page 21, 1979 SEO Repor of the New YCrk PCwer Pool. The 1979 New York PCwer Pool sur.e.lv. forecast was generally accepted by the parties fCr planning purposes and we, :Co, ,

shall c:ilize it as the best prCjeCniCn of suc.c.iv.

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facilities . crc.=Csed in Case 80003, James:Cr: ( 2300 :G) and Case 80008, New Haven /Stuvvesan: (2500 >50 ; and Niagara MChawk's ses- Lake Er'e Genera:'nc. StatiCn (17 0 0 'G) . After the 2: which we annCunced our decision, the Sining SCard i.'l

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hanC, the IOrecas: nay be Overstated CeCause 'tOninC,uces the Cne -

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--am,- y _4 _* e ..g ,_ 3 ,

- . -A 2

. _.. k.e " ye.. C a.4' m .= y"* e c .#. --* -. ^ ^ ' . ' e .'l a_ _ 3 "; --""-

- ,"- _4 _'" e -

.a e nu s 4.

w.k. s +. - w.._4 1 1 ' e "a' e " bV C a.. . s .i..l."y 3-.-

~ .

- o n.o _ .2 4 o A e.l t:r _- _d w _4 _ v, .

The forecasts are depicted on Appendix A, page Cne.

. m. .w.o. J. _4 ,4_- s o _e . e2so 4 . 4 .. . s. .. _4 s : o . e a s ~m _4 ..g e _= v, we e de_#4.".ad o n _ -- .k.e h i ., .". s _i #.a.- k v,

. . .k. a ", a

4 .- a '_ 7 -

. -_ . . 7. Ci.._4C Research Associates (NEPA) #oreCast and on the low side by

"- .h. e ? .< *. .G " .1 e w " _' o _- = C ' s - . "..".a. N. T. '.; # ^ -a C = s - i s s "b s -_= .. -_4 ,= _7 .i v k.._i gh. --a .-

k. ~= .7 a.".v, c mhe . _4.1 *..k.- a. - a,. ^ # = . .d

- _4 .7 d 4 C= as = ..e=d

- - _" o .-

. . _i .n e S e _ _1_473 . - s _i .. a - d .d..'. - _- a_...a. .. s o .#. -

< ~= y c_ - - v, ", v, _' c, 9 ,* .

_~,.

e _2,_ m ,. ----a u s .. au- c y 4 ., 4--.a_ s m wa_.ot..

t.,.n a_,a ... w_4au .

.- ---- emC o . ~- a _4C .

Condi:icas and .cessi.lism axcut t n.e =c. le.tentat .on or alternative e .,. _ -32. .auy _ . . p _, .2. a . ~d wonse-"a-_i,. -

. aC." ~"' c.i=a- _4 . . 'ba _#-v _- =-- - = s -

periCd. Conversely, the ESRG "lCw" fCreCast is the lowes:

in t.ne Case--it .in:1 Cates _no neax , cad crowt.n a::er .

ne

~

...4 A _1 o 8 0 ' S .

-- _i -a p e s s _4 ... 4 s '..4 C a." o',.'. " ' ' ' .- e a C - C . o1.4 v-'

. C , '. . -

d4 .. 4 , ..3 4.

_.i u.w. e --32o -.

2,

.d . , y *- _4 .,u .4 3 _ 4w- mw egu u,. .w. e -..g

- 4-i e.ag

_ o.

2 4 Cn o# a .l. ' a.

. 7 a

4 V a. e." G _ 3 ,,V

. . e c. .h...c .lC C,, .i. a s a.".d C .." ". s e v a m .4 v^ ". . e" . = C , .i ' ~a s .

.e.4.u ne.,. k e .L;r v a_

v : .- e r, 2 ac.,.

d.%._4 7 a . -.i - ..o . m .w e r .o.c C. n _1 wc. .n

o .. = " _= o- * .i s .4 .y c e s _i .k.1 e o _# .u.u.,' ' 4 1 1. a ..k.a aChi eva ..e.*.~ o #

s-- 4 ..b.e - Ao-y e..do- A,.v e.." s o ve.". *n*h.iC .b.

. C 7.

a .i

..- .b.. --a " W e ". . o. . ' .h. o.

,um_ , * ; 1 _4 4. es .~ kmVe ia,. w.iw

- , -n v,sn _ o_1 m_ha -

v.

d. .o,n-J e.,_,.

-- G C 2 s-u _ A e s v- _.-.4 .w e C k, y 3 u- aa

. C,,a..4as =s a " b.s u s .i . e s .c., =a "- s C a .' "

_#v.^ . a " = s " - .=. c o- "ma a s

.b..=. -he

-. - "4s ... ^ _i ,=_' . -_- a _1 .= ~ 4 o n e "._' o, s

- . .."ia a.v..i s a d e = .' v,

- _i .1 -he m

'9 - 2

_, - - b

O 8'%. y y v .8%. ,

9.". _ #"% O #.'4 #".%

. , .9%

~ _ -. -2.

/*% .M.. . /'* 9 *< .99, y e f, 8--_/,'4 .

2. m e g , a .M *. h. c N--ac.m g..M #

g l a r d.a .. i g**w

_. .. ~ -. - - -Q- . <=

- _4.ja * *w. . ' ' .l _I .. _ . g _i .]

a=. g m. . 4 2 1.*.,;e 4 . 'q

- o ggmg. a a . ..

V".".' (( ., o.ygge-- g w 2. =. d c.eaa g.v.id

.... *w.4

7- -,. g ., ..._i .==. s i g O -

a e

r.~~.C w

-- enme-OvVvO

. o e, _ cw . aw u..k. yeyg i s u._4 w - . . , .n -,q o

_4 . - - . . ~ -..Au --a r m . .

2

..._a 3 c .- _4 . _4 .y ,

2 3 _4..

h a s _i .. ..".= y a s ".- -- W 4 ,

. .b. "*

d.u -v . 4. C .". s

- , . # --^ - a .v. ;, a-- " ,. a d- C" ". s "wa e -

e syC .".s e s .o .' ..*_- = ='s e s - , _d .'1 .b. e " c---= ' y.4^=

- c# *..".__'"4.7,.

m. .k.-o re-

-.%G "1cy n s-- e .-

gras , . * .w. o c "..=.".A,

-- v .b. --a '~ -

~

.=. s o '%' ... o s

'..b. .= *" ow Vo

v. o -k 5 " .= .= ' s .#" ". e y" oy u .' a ..' o n a a.d e ce..e..u_' " c u

. u a" _' _' "e ,

s u b s " a..'. 4 =- _' _' _v ' a - s s b.=.". =_ .. .v o .h.a

. -- - #^-=C=s ,- ..' .a

-u-- -.* . e e.n e -, V.

osos _-

.e. . --- -- . .no._ .

.w.

. . . . o - =,=s~=d

- - d o...e s = . ."- - y _ o d " - - ' ^.n -

~

rec.uirements, such as the.v are, Will be relativelv low; and .

"..a*

- cec., e..a__ a *__4 o r. a".d . o r.- s _4 =_ - a_ . . a . a _ _4 c .. w _d _' _'

3 y _' _= ,v a_ l a _-- a -

1 y- a _- * .4 .". .-

a a *. .4 .". 3---c ' a " ... # C --*" ,"- _# .. = ..'. e .". s . ~ /

N e _i ' " a...

. , . . . #^*a--- -=si .is, 3 .i ve n _4- 's a s s"-...-y - d o .". s ,

demonstrabl.v wronc or inaccurate. - If the assu.ptions are C o '~ * - , , '"..." e # c _- *, " = .~.~> aa ,v We .1 .' . "e

- C*._-*C

.. . * -- ~4e _# 4...6 .

- n* a ** '-.". a. a e s**..y- *,."_4 .o n s .i .n a--= C .h a~ e "-."._'" *, = s v* ". a D' .'. a a..d- 'e' .-i c' - ..* .e

o ,

. eC , s , a- u..k.a-- O _ o .. a a..n. t . u u.o a- u. ,s u. e n..a.. . o- n:

-- y.u. ., -

w s a.

...e c, a - .4 e s ".,e .1 _i .=.- v a .b.e "" "-.. = o u "i.--

- - o h.,e , n o ",. w". a " 4

. 6 e c- s--w..= b _' v can be expected to be.

.o be su-a, "" # o-... - . a. s e =- = b l a y- -- - e - "- - ",a 4 c .. s 4 .. e .a = _-:,v

. .a a.. .k a .s --C O_ _T.C a C ". 4-."".s c.. 7 e d o a.' ' e g i. o- l = "-.# o.. , _#^-

-- . .. a_.v. a u p _' a_ - -

c u ' d . =. s .. _4 , ~. o . .4...c _- = = s e ..".a- - d e ..a. - _#m .- a,. _' a_ , - _ .' _' . v, -6

-- .". e 1.4 a.4.a . - a,. s a b _l _i s. -b- a d " v , ..k. a_ N. 7 0.'...=..d -

T SRG 'c~ #o-a,-=s..e..-- 2 .d ,

d e,,,..o g ,y- k.._4 - - a ". .d a---. " ^ ". o..._4 -" v = 4 _= " _' - a_ s ".a - _

v. d _' _# # s_ _" s "u s = .". '- _4-' _' .' v ,

.1/m..w.o, e . . .q

, . .: C n , o .w.c w .i e

.- m n .:

C w =_ C a s .,. 4 s . w...e s.4.u, a.._4.,u...e_

1 o. .. w . o_mn of its " low"~and "high" forecasts, and is therefore under-s - = . .a. d . = -_se_v

', "^ .- ..b.e o.v..=.. - ..b. a_ "'cw"

. -#-- .- =_ < =

_ s - = s s "u...y _' o . a - -

--^ "

a we ",-.. e _a s o ".a k _' e . .'.- - - .i .n c.

. ~

o -" e S -e

.'._'..: y a _- _ _4 .4 ,= .. . _e ,

.v n. c -_4 _: e_e_e.. e. w e_-..

...4_,._ a .:.,0 0 _a

...e , , ,

o.e -o.. ,

-.ie .-.a .sG ny_ osa w w .,.e n 1995 peak forecast, and the N'i?: 1995 eeak forecast can c'e attributed to allegedly too-low estimates of the State's e ~ ~i- ".t

. _# - ^ume u- ( 2.7 0 0 .W. c - 4. 0 '5 ) , e.n e u- " 4.. =..s .". v. o-.

e" n e r c. v. needed to c. reduce that outc.ut (2300 MW, or 42%),

=.. d ~ o o - a.x . =..a.s i v a. a_ s ._' ... = = s c-# w - --c. e.. e -- = - _' ^ . ( _' 0 0 0 .W. ,

. c-1 C.,

. % )' .

-6.

CASI 30005

- n..i u..u.o s e L,s e A.

_.. u- -.u. a -_-..a-w

-- --. - m . s e .,. s L, s : n _. a_ c , a-

-- s A a-- s w_ _ _s .u., e;-

- e _1 w w. . - - .w.e _7 a_ s a ,

N. o.n.a 4-

-- _4a- _.. k.e a.,.g o. a_ s _- _, w _1_4 w s ..a_- A _i . . _..w.o s e

_-_-a-- as s ~.a

- " w__1_1 c^-..s-i-" _a-- - = r o-... "# ueem

' i d =- _"__-a _-- #^- ou_-

determination of the "need" issue in this rehearing because we find their assumptions are the mos reasonable.

As previously noted, the NIRA and ESRG " low" forecasts'are toc extreme to be used for planning purposes.

The forecasts in the 1979 Pool Report, though reduced, are s - 4 1 _1 a w-...ew.h a * '._4e- h e _- ..". = ..

.".e ' S C / s"o

- -- n ,

rc-

- aG " k.._i ;. - 5 , " --- d Cornell group forecasts.- The lack of forecasting success c_# - .k. a. e _l e c '-_ ' ---~ ---, a. . i e s ^w vc__- "-.b. a. -=s-ww - :a=

_# 4_v a "

a 4..d_4-=-a" that even their latest reduced forecast must be discountec somewhat. This forecast should, in our judgment, be viewed as the outer linit of optimism. The PSC/ CPS staff forecast,

- .he Cv- -"..eA' .' 3_wue o-=c-=

=

, a..d- .".e = sag "".._4-"."

. - ;. # o e r_ . ' s " a _- a

. close to each other and establish to us a reasonable ranc.e of probable peak demands for the forecast period. But even crecasts esta3-_.sh too wide a ranc.e for our sc.ecific tn,ese

. purpcse and we must, enere:cre, cnoose one as ene nost .

9

-- _ wc a-_w_l a_ . y/

w :

m..% eo- gC s ou ,_2_: -_ --_ia: ,m_ - a_ s e..u. -- e; , , y u

C' a _ a_ A_ _o_vae,s -- - s that show:

._1 / gu _- g ~a- C a'...h e - 5 , '

_978 o_"a_- -

u _4 -A . .o c y e - _d _#_--

4 - = _' _' v,

- =-a a----

.gg _i.c7c, a ey o _- o _.w.e. c- a-- a T C##4-a wc"u'd "e u w.

. m-_- . - _..e_-v_*_ ___-- -

considered in cur evalua:1cn of the need issues. Ecwever, "Ae # c _*--a r a s s

. _ _4 .". .". e ' c. 7 0, =.-r

. a a _- . i .n c _' " d e s "w " s - = ..*_ _' = _' _' v, reduced load forecasts and all parties have urged that

..".a v, b, e_ c - . . s _i -d a_ _- = d u" v, - .". a- = c a.-d .4... _1 _4 = "- o.# . .". e ...u c h ". _* ; "* a_ _-

forecasts by th= Pool memi:ers that were ccasifered in Case 27319.

_2/A77 -a

..44x

-- n','y=;e 7 de f _4--e

- - - - .k.a.se #- _-- e-=s s a..d e1=- -ee

. -.- k. a.m.

o the supply-assumptions we have adopted.

-7.

CASE 30005

. L m. j w o.e.,.__,4..-

. - - . y y a _4. .. _4 r an__a_ ,a_ ,---,.o,,.,.,

=.

e_4_s we c -... -.,,,. - o _ _4 _ _4

-4 -

2 .

- . . . 4 ._. a .- . . . .-. o .- , ,- = _ o. c. . .a 4_ ..u.

a'06 .'s.a ^ - =- # '.c ' e ".c". ,

. . , _-- - v .'..c. . o ' ,' _' .'r.a &. . m. _- - = c a .

.w,.

...- w4.... -- ..-_2_4.., _a

- - . eu_-

- - - - c.e.-a,

- - . _ u.

w i .. a - wvu'A = s o . .. _= _ .k ..". a. " e ,_4...4-..c, o '_ a- "-." -

1 '

s n--.e.. +. n .1 J. o. .J._- . 4 _ ._4- ,a- n.e _4 s s _a m _w

- - ...s. D. e.e~.e _- U m om i_s m-whole.

na 7 _3 --

~.".e c.'=.1 's =eac4 v, o. 2~~1 7 .W. , w^uld-be ..eaded bv - .".e S a -_ .' _4 .".c u ..' _' _4 _i a_ s .d .. ". e

.#. o _' .' w _4 ..e. w _4 . . a - o .# .' 4. 9 2 1 0 9 3 . . . . . . C a . - _ _= '

'J.u dea o . w 4 1 '

b ec....e .c...=.". ' v, c' a _# _4c.'e.."

. k.e s " .me.- o . .' 9 0. 0 a..d ..h e _#-. ^- 1.'.-w' . .. , w--'.. =- , .= . . A o-u.u.g_e,e ,- -~ .- -e .cy .n. g m.... o - g.. a ,.<, .r.a , -

vinter c,-:1ciencies

.3.v .

cy 15.,.

,-e e Orange ang-Rockland will experience slicht and then s :able de:..1clenc:.es earl:..e: .in tn.e :orecast r e 4 - c- . nan m .s- e o s n e _- S ,- 1 4 ._. ,- .~ s.. r a, .,. _4 e. s ,

b ec., .4 ...._' .1q _i .1 s u .. ..e _- 'CC' _.-c a. .d c -.

^ '." 4.~. '.'...c. _4 . ,

su, .e .. . w.k.e_em_4 .--, o* 2 s we.1_1 a b- *w.* 4.n

e .*. o- a .# '- o. .- . .

_1.c 8 8 _ c^ 9 . . . . ... 1c97.,

. on- _- 12 s 4_-4., e , s s _.

,V E .= .' , O.G ."s .?

. *1

. e a. d s " ". . _' V, 'O -- .W.a ...o ..

s "w.. *.. e _" y e ." .'C C = y a C .4.". " , E ". A

.. .,.28 .W. . ..c e "-.h a. . .a.r - v4.1"s-a .

D o j o,. .oc. --a.. . ,._ e." .c v, v, e .=... s .. o .- N__'.a; a - " .".c r..=.wx

a. e s .i.m. 4 _' = - *o RG&r's -ku" .o da#4-da.n.cy ^ _'

-- . . 4 --. - y. o ..

.a. a 3 8 .'" m ' .. e e d _' m' .- a _4 .. a .. ' 907 4_0_, t _', .'r.w'

.. b. e .,.. e x - a- -. , .. l e _,. , -3 . .g .e, _4 .,.-s k _i e C e e 4

_. 4 s.e.C _4-s s t h e e a _e u. o-._* n (u__4e_c r . 17_13) -- _

c. .h a ---= b l a s y- . = s e . . . = 4 "- v, ..". e C .".w .c., "w.... a - 3 _- ^ - a, ,

- . . -- . ,- 4 ^. . .

D,o a.. A. .' 7 4 s "" 4 = .#. _4..d.4Ca'.e

- s .i ".. 4. _' .=. _- C=ya 4 v, C' a # 4- _Cde".Cdes .

c .. ' .k.a z~e 1_4 .c ya_-. c_i e a..'s =..' 'k.e .oc o _' by 7997_ (.

~

- 4

. - . _ 1 0-1, .

9. . Deca _-

.se.. o# r. .~.v 4 _ ^ . _ .. e . . ". = ' Co.se_va._4

. --- 'e#_

2 , as '..>'- "- 43 - .' . a. Oca-d .i s ' ^ d e ' a _. _i.. e

. - "-.k.a - yublic

- . .a_adm ne w asis c:. cacac1:v. r e _3l a c i _, 1 c v. criteria:

issue sole.,v on _

1. If its " probable" forecast s used, c=eac_4 v_- d a_ _# 4 - _4 e.".- _

4 a s ~ _4 .' 1

-_- k,a -

ex ,re _w _eo_. .--- o s _4 . . _.c ,

v, .

e, u,sec, _ o:u, _

,e S. .

. . _e s u h .4 ~. . k.. n _ .. e-,

2 u,

_a

_1 a.y _ e .4. . i v .. e*.."*-

e . . a C# 3 G .". e .. .=. . 4 .3- C = y a C .4. V, w.4 1 1 w,e - a. c.,. . . .. e,- Aw wy _ .c. o 7 11 %

g

C.t.SZ 3 0 0 0 5 r--,^c,"

2 a'c-4 0.., ..". e G e.. a s e a,. Va_av -, .o=_ ".c ' a.a' - .o m., w e--

C - a'i - ,._'^. =".d ..".a

. - rs e.' "- -- '- ... " . C o .".s e ". = _ ' ^-.. n' a o c 4 =. i m-. ". , -

=-',dv -..c. ci. -

-- =c=s.s -

=se..=d . - ".v c -..a " -- - e a--4

- - .=. s , =---,ua a--

..".a "ec.="se da#4 d- - - - e .c _ a_ .

s ".vi -' -'- ..c- " e a.v.

e--i a..-a.d i'

.". e s .,. , y 1 990's,

, ".".a. S '- a---- ' i . . , - = c ' --- :' i - " ' a- - -- 4 # 4 -

a,-------=.=- a".cu'd

. . .c -

ke .e4..e. , aA a*

. . -- h.4s -4me.

W.h. = - e..e- , es #--. --- = . . - o ' '-."a.' a- i s - .ha -.he-a -a scme disagreement among the parties about exactly when

. cacaclev. d e :. .1ciencies will occur :.or tne Sterlinc. c. a r' t i c 1.: a n t s and exactly hcw lar3e those deficiencies will.be. / -

The c-o ----

- - , 4 ..c a - - i -w-, 4 a..'. s , " k..i .l a. e. ,. y b.= s .i .

.i..c. "h= - -.".e,v heliave --

-w e .4. - o w ,.. ec -,_ ~- , s s a e . , e _ m._ 3 . -- 3c--

w.a.. .w. se o any.

o ther p art.v. , arcue that even if the icwer .=eak load forecasts a e =d-- =d "m- : ' a

_ -e -- -- .

.".i..c. ur ^ses, "k.ev .. . .h="ve a nead-- "- o- a S a-..

3 -si-ad --- 4 ..c e"..e.. o ' c = ~raci""

"- -.'- 4 s ,---

-u. "4-a c ' a_a--

".".a a..": ..e a-- d -..di *

- a*=d- b .

-f' .k. a s e c' = '- = i s #a- ..o-a- ---e.~..c * -a than it was at the time we issued cur Opinion and Order c a.n - 4 ..c. "..." a. ^ ---' ,- - 4 . . a ' S*e 14..e. ca--'#4c=.a. - -------- ...s'a=d--- c-3 reserve cargin deficiencies in 1984-1986, no c.artv. new a .~- 4 c4 a.as da#4

. - ------ iancias "....i.' a *- ' a a .e . -'CS 8 as.d -..a .

., --,. , J e c - cn , wy ..w. e 3-_. _ .,. ' . . , , a - -- i = . . a , '

e --

. .m. u s -_- -awou.. ad -

for the reason we discussed above.='/

The nost reasonable projection on this record, 4-

-.. ou- ",i=,w, i-

-a - .h=' o"#a ed ' .v..- co^ us '- = # # .a . . d " .". e C .o .m. .

"-.h = "-

->c.nt :crecast.:.nc er., -

. ort is confirmed to some extent v

. t..e Sta-14.c.

- - - - . = o-1i r=..

-- s' -

v w ..

- = ,. = s s

- 4.. ..".a_ i - - '

9e4 .

ot= e Inergy Office submittal. Indeed, the applicants themselves

__u.,. .... enc.x a. , rac.es 3-6 de.oicts orc ectec. cemanc anc sun.o,v. :cr

==c.". o' .".e S a _ii.., e a-.4. - '-c..

s as 4 ..d ' c =..ed- "v ..".e c .

..ea..v ' s

^- ecas"-, ,

-- ".he SSC/C'.c " o _- =_

- = s - = .. d "-.". a_ -r .e .o,G .". _' , .". 2 .. d :- . - bao"le case forecas:s.

7/..ea. c'.r e- e.. -- dix 3 'e".i. .5 #e i- -- s _==va-=' . o ,i e --r - =_d c=rac' v.

_e"-

_ --aes a.d

.'"- -. - -d e -#i-'- ,- a_ .-. -4 = s #--

..'.a. .c - a-'d ----.., N. "vC. .oe e a--d-cipants as a group.

CASE S0005

_w. . a- * --

m: w a n -w.: -

a.3 4:-- Ce=

- ac,.

a .a. . - . .,..w. a- ----- a v. ..a- o. c.,6 --

. . - - .- m ma- ,. .

m 4434

--- g- ... 3-- a .. - 4.m. 1- 1,. - ; - . :. - . , ,

. . . . . ".O S e ^ #. ~. ". a ""*."ya

.. . - - . . .'". 4 a s . " ^- * *..". a " ',.'.." " O S S O# "w "w '" 4..".' C," 4 .". Y,, "..". e .". *a*v* u .' # ", e s s. "e e ev-""ad ".,

., V y" .". _4 ". . " ~;' "*."..~.a

. C "..

-De'..# .# / C U 2 '4c#

^

"..". e .O .C y" . 7" ."w i, e " 4 w.

^ ". S # -.4. a^ w^" .. .. e d 4.". ..".a. U. C C S..'."- . --

Ls6q a.w. m a '~ 4

-. . 9.", . " . . " . " " . .#^**.'.=a-s.

v- S U C,, ;~eSS * .'* . ' v" .". ' "; '.". u' l # C.# - '"..

"a,."y .". e a e . . od 4 C ' "y a C 4 . V. -

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---: . . . - - .='. . = - . . - . . - -" ' -

- .". e alleged cost savings attendan to early installation are ne

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-, -4 a..ma- -um, .v. e pointed out that the dollar savings from an early installation plan are in t.e billions (over the life of the plant); that the studies did not reregnize recen: OPEC price increases, higher import duties, an- ederal taxes frem the National Enerv v. Act that would make the savings even creater; and that design changes resulting from the *hree Mile Island investic.ation are .i1 xe,v to w

. e ,imitec- to contro,s anc-4, -"-

-..s-- -.a.. =-.4cn . ( '..".=" -.".=u- s - -"- - "- = m- .- s"s

a.n. c' = s i c. . )' so those cost increases can be expected to be relatively small .

E Citinc. colicy statements by both President Carter ad eove-.o

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o- c"se-<a Onct reducec. cecencence on toreic.n ol, is a ma or c.ublic

. colic.v .oriorit.v. New York's de.cendence on c.eneratin- 3 facilities fueled with imported oil makes - especiall.y vulnerable to interruptic.3 or price increases from arbitrary actions by foreign powers. Early installation and operation of an 1150 MW hase load non-cil generatin- facilit.y would, thev w .

. assert, displace oil-fired generation consuming 500 million gallons of oil annually.

k.e

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, - -- -.. -= a . . s necessarilv forecloses inc.lementation of other clans

. to meet the same capacity recniraments. If the decision results in early installation, the loss of alleged benefits of alternatives

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. 1980's Cn a basis other than need for additional Cac.aCiCv.r and in the absence of such a need in Che 1990's, " A c. o. l i C a n C k.. a s _' o s . . " .'s s .= . = '" . e .- . = - _i " e = yy _ o a C ." , DrC #a"o.s _e,re"._i ng 4e h_4 s e -.s s e _4 o .- - -4.,_ .w_ . k.e _,. e,i.n.1,,--m..4 4.o n o _4 a_1 ..a._. . . ._4..o

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would rely exclusively on renewable energy sources (solar, w.4..a.d , _w "_i m. ass) k.,u - .n o s ee C _' _# _4 ." s ^ r.- = v a _i _' = .".

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.k.e lanning .cerloc, cacac:. v. ce,icienc'es n.ere cniv enc or the .

bec.in to c. evesco ,v

. a. ,991. Such a demonstration is too

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.,e a . ,c v; e'ew-ed capacity cericiencies wou)c. ge a usti: led.

There has geen no showing in t.u.is record--inc,eec .

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rel;.able electric system in the State.

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a n"ye c' e"7a7-, w _i .". . .

i:S Shorter ConStruCriCn Cycle and Smaller Capacity, Would c.eam

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w= =,_.. e . * - _i .". C. - o ..e -- a-Can. aCit.y deficiencies that are C.enuine_,v uncerta;.n to Ceve_3Co d

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generating facility was needed.

Of course, it is i.cossible to discuss a license

cr a nuclear generating station without mentioning the

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..o vo - m., g ,- .3 ..e 4.e o.# a.nc' reviewed the Kemeny Cc==ission Report on this incident in

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Sterling-SNUPPS--cannot be certified in New York State at s c."..e _ _'.. e _' .'. ".". a #" - "-- =-. .

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D [ i 1991 1?9 1993 1944 1995

< i d 1990 ,

&& c) - .\ n 0,711 30,911 Available 02:acirr (7::= A;;enitc I) 22,455 3',444

- 31,0~. 31,071 7eak Tereesses NZZA (SIC Re;c:-) 29,259 20,030 30,3:0 21,530 32,465 1

7eol Eigh (7::bable - 5%) 30,253 31,0:3 31,75: 32,520 23,061 7::bable (1979 SIC P.ep:r-) 2S,C40 29,720 29,400 20,1 0 00,390 Lcw (?r:bable - 54) 25,797 26,43: 27,043 27,7'O 23,419 26,7C6 27,374 *S,459 29,057

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-- 4 6 , .,64

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- P cbable 24,376 '4,529 24,663 24,795 24,906 Low

21,996 21,$67 21,966 21.933 :1,331 Cornell Gre :p (0.27319, I:c. 95) 27,648 Eigh 25,333 24,340 26,35 Low 27,007 28,071 29,326 SZO Staff (0:11- SIC Plan)

Car _2ity 'ectirerent (7 e ak + 22% )

trERA 35,696 36,637 37,600 38,529 39,607

Pcol High 26,945 33,074 38,519 39,636 40,700

?r:bahia 34,209 35,051 25,868 36,746 37,a66 Lew 31,47: 3*,047 32,998 33,306 34,671

- - ;PS/C23 Staff 32,531 22,0'O 34,0C6 34,700 35,450

. ISRO Eigh 32,601 32,999 33,357 33,718 34,026 Probable 29,s." 29,925 30,096 20,*50 30,335 i

Low 26,835 26,524 26,799 26,756 26,634 Cornell Group 30,906 33,731 High 29,625 32,14?

Low 30,949 35,015 35,790 SIO Staff Terecast ?ssa:te Ma.--in Su= 12s/f0e'i:ie.cr5 (3,211) (6,326) (3,696)

NZEA

? col Eigh (4,460) (7,245) (9,739)

(1,724) (4,594) (6,735)

Probable '

Low 1,013 (1,7:4) (3,760) 075/C23 Staff (96) (:,732) ( 4,53t i

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Eigh (116) .(2,093) (3,125) .

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Law S,650 4,475 4,277 e

j C rnell Cr=up High 1,579 (2,3:0)

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CASE 110005 APPElll>l X 11 ,

. I e P

STEll! IllG-SiluPPS PAllTICIPAtlTS CAPACITY SullPLUS/DEFICIEllCY* ,

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 S' il S 11 S 11 S 11 _ S ti S 14 S 11 S 11 Per Original lloard Decision ** (424) (632) (906) (1109) - - - - - - - - - - - -

Per 1978 c 149-b Iteport of tiew York Power Pool (Case 27319) 567 417 118 46 (228) (379) (632) (816) (1069) (1262) (1509) (1726) (1957) (2153) (2376) ( 25111 Per Staff in Case 27319 1782 1716 1457 1471 1246 1173 983 891 704 601 416 303 126 to (174) (303 Per 1979 tiew York Power Pool Fi1ing to Energy Office 267 943 684 141 226 1411 (112) (187) (439) (547) (782) (874) (1127) (1189) (1447) (1499 Pe r St a f f Ilr ie f on lic h e a r i ng-ca s e 80005 1062 1763 1539 1353 1092 1009 820 718 532 384 200 52 (106) (24 2) (425) (572

Excludes uncertified facilities; includes fline tiile Point tio . 2 and Ilydro additions .

for fliagara tiohawk Power Corporation as projected by New York Power Pool's 1979 filing to the Energy offiers.

- l.ow end o f the range given in the decision.

.e ..s .me_ or. s, t r_ y. 'e v.o.g BOARD CM ~

.e. ..-. C . =,_ w- .. 4r..2.s.

e_ C3.I -

c___-. . u- r_wQ . .... - .s V n. . .m. ..

. . C. . . _ v. .s.I .

CA5I 80005 - Application by 2o ' ::er Gas and Electric Corporation on be ': c:. r ._ i t s e _3 :. , Orange anc-Rockland Utilities, -.:c., Central Hudsen Gas

& Electric Corporation and Niagara Mohawk Pcwer Corpora a for a certificate of environmental ccmpatibility and public need to construct an 1150 MW standardized nuclear pcwer plant in the Town of Sterling, Cayuga County, New York.

DR. WILLIAM E. SEYMOUR, Alternate for William D.

Eassett, Cc=missioner, Department of Commerce, dissenting: '

This Board has reopened this proceeding for the curt.ose o f reexamining and refinin~$ the applicants' need for capacity. I believe that the applicants have demonstrated a c.ublic need for the addinicnal cac.acity..re= resented bv. the .

Sterlin,-SNU??S facility and that the need is sufficiently

_4 _._ e 4. _4 _ ._ _= o war _ _=.7- _" e'_ .. s e_4 _"_ - _4 ..g .".a. a u _b.o _ _4 -_- = . 4 ons c a.. .=A in our criginal decision.

It seems clear to me that a need has been shown by the utilities for substantial amounts of addi:ional capacity in the early 1990's and that, given the length of time recuired for constructicn of the plant, .

including a reasonable allowance for unanticipated delays, issuance of a certificate at this time would provide a reasonable constructior. schedule and satisfy capacity needs within the same time frame.

I have also carefully reviewed the.Kemeny Cc= mission repor .

A c. .iscerned frc= ta,an review that any plant ecuipmen:

=ccarica:1cns anc.

retrc:::s recuired to provide necessary additional protection could be acccmplished within the

4 .. CASE

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ML19294B866

Text

Dear Mr. Chairman:

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