L-2018-136, L-2018-136-Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 - Slides and Presentations

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L-2018-136-Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 - Slides and Presentations
ML18247A566
Person / Time
Site: Turkey Point  NextEra Energy icon.png
Issue date: 08/08/2018
From:
Florida Power & Light Co
To:
Division of Materials and License Renewal
lois james
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ML18247A507 List: ... further results
References
L-2018-136
Download: ML18247A566 (34)
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Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 1 of 34 Variable Density Ground Water Flow and Salinity Transport Model Analysis Attribution Analysis Results Pete Andersen, P.E.

James Ross, Ph.D., P.E.

Tetra Tech June 19, 2018

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Executive Summary L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 2 of 34 FPL used existing Groundwater Model with additional modifications to conduct the attribution analysis 8 regional and environmental factors were considered and individually modeled to assess their independent effects Each model result was compared to the base case The analysis indicated that the most influential factors were:

  • CCS salinity > seawater
  • Climate,
  • WMD canal operations The least influential factors were:
  • Local canals
  • Seasonal canals
  • Sea level rise*
  • Sea level rise over the past 9 years of most significant change may not have reached an equilibrium at the current comparison time. Its effect may therefore be underestimated.

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Outline L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 3 of 34

Background

Attribution analysis

  • Factors considered
  • Analysis and reporting methodology Results
  • Scenario development
  • Metric (depth-averaged change in area > 1000 mg/L chlorides west of CCS)
  • Visual Conclusion

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Background L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 4 of 34 DEP Consent Order #16-0241 (CO) was entered into between DEP and Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) on June 20, 2016 Third Objective of CO:

FPL to provide mitigation for impacts related to the historic operation of the Cooling Canal System (CCS), including but not limited to the hypersaline plume and its influence on the saltwater interface (SWI)

To achieve this third objective (in part), paragraph 23(a) of the CO requires FPL to:

Complete an analysis, within 2 years from the effective date of this Order, with input from the Department and other agencies as selected by the Department, using the variable density three-dimensional groundwater model developed under the Miami-Dade County Consent Agreement, that seeks to allocate relative contributions of other entities or factors to the movement of the SWI.

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Factors Considered in Attribution Analysis (8)

L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 5 of 34

1. Operation of the FPL Cooling Canal System (CCS);
2. Sea level rise;
3. Changes in land use:
4. Decadal-scale changes in precipitation recharge;
5. Construction of drainage structures and changes to drainage practices;
6. Construction and operation of controlled freshwater canals;
7. Changes to groundwater use (changes to the operation and capacity of nearby wellfields); and
8. Management and operation of mining practices west of the CCS.

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Analysis and Reporting Methodology L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 6 of 34 Description of specific factor to be assessed

  • Base case (calibrated model) condition
  • Scenario modifications Metric: Average change in area (from base case) of salinity > 0.05 (1000 mg/L Cl) west of the CCS over thickness of aquifer Visual: Areal view of saltwater interface line
  • Model layer 8, lower high flow zone
  • Simulated interface should not be compared to Prinos (2016) because of differing monitoring elevations and intervals

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

1. Operation of the FPL Cooling Canal System (CCS) L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 7 of 34 Scenario 1: CCS operated at seawater salinity for its period of use
  • Replace CCS cells of greater than 35 PSU with 35 PSU
  • Run model, process results
  • Assesses position and orientation of saltwater interface if CCS salinity remained at 35 PSU

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

1. Operation of the FPL Cooling Canal System (CCS)

L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 8 of 34 Number Description Average areal Reduction  % Reduction extent of from Base from Base saltwater (mi2)

(mi2) 0 Base 24.10 1 Limit CCS salinity 21.45 2.65 11.01%

to 35 PSU

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

1. Operation of the FPL Cooling Canal System (CCS)

L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 9 of 34

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

2. Sea Level Rise L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 10 of 34 Sea-level rise is included in base model:
  • Biscayne Bay boundary
  • Canal and inland boundary adjustments
  • 2.74 inches 1973-2010
  • 2.79 inches 2010-2018 Scenario 2: No sea-level rise
  • Detrend Biscayne Bay boundary heads to account for no rise, but apply same seasonal and monthly variability
  • Adjust CCS stages by same amount to maintain same head differences with Biscayne Bay as base model
  • Run model, process results
  • Assess influence of sea-level rise

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

2. Sea Level Rise L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 11 of 34 Number Description Average areal Reduction  % Reduction extent of from Base from Base saltwater (mi2) (mi2) 0 Base 24.10 2 No Sea Level 23.99 0.11 0.45%

Rise

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

2. Sea Level Rise L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 12 of 34

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

3. Changes in Land Use L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 13 of 34 Land use change is included in base model:
  • Recharge (precipitation, agricultural irrigation)
  • Runoff (urbanization)
  • Drainage canals Scenario 3: No change in land use
  • Recharge distribution as in 1960s
  • Runoff distribution as in 1960s
  • Drainage canals as in 1960s

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

3. Changes in Land Use L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 14 of 34 Number Description Average areal Reduction  % Reduction extent of from Base from Base saltwater (mi2) (mi2) 0 Base 24.10 3 No Land Use 23.97 0.13 0.55%

Changes

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

3. Changes in Land Use L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 15 of 34

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

4. Decadal-Scale Changes in Climate L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 16 of 34 Actual climatic variability is included in base model
  • Precipitation / ET as measured/estimated from 1968-2015 Scenario 4: Alternative decadal-scale change in recharge
  • Repeat 1967-1976 precipitation and ET through present
  • Determine effects of recent (drier) climate

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

4. Decadal-Scale Changes in Climate L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 17 of 34 Number Description Average Reduction  % Reduction areal extent from Base from Base of saltwater (mi2)

(mi2) 0 Base 24.10 4 Decadal-Scale 22.81 1.29 5.38%

Change in Climate

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

4. Decadal-Scale Changes in Climate L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 18 of 34
5. Construction of Drainage Structures and Changes to Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Drainage Practices L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 19 of 34 Controlled freshwater canals are included in base model:
  • Progressive addition of canals with time Scenario 5a: Localized alternate management of drainage structures
  • Higher dry season heads in canals northwest of CCS
  • North, Florida City, and C-103 heads assumed equal to L31-E Scenario 5b: Widespread alternate management of drainage structures
  • Set observed maximum seasonal heads in all controlled canals
5. Construction of Drainage Structures and Changes to Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Drainage Practices L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 20 of 34 Number Description Average areal Reduction  % Reduction extent of from Base from Base saltwater (mi2) (mi2) 0 Base 24.10 5A Local canals to 24.09 0.01 0.06%

L-31E 5B High seasonal 24.05 0.05 0.20%

canal stages

5a: Localized alternate management of drainage Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 structures L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 21 of 34

5b: Widespread alternate management of drainage Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 structures L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 22 of 34

6. Construction and Operation of Controlled Freshwater Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Canals L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 23 of 34 Controlled freshwater canals are included in base model:
  • Progressive addition of canals with time
  • Management practices represented as they occurred Scenario 6: 1960s canal distribution present through 2017
  • L31-E and other freshwater canals (built in late 1960s and early 1970s) not included in scenario
  • Assesses influence of freshwater canal construction
6. Construction and Operation of Controlled Freshwater Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Canals L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 24 of 34 Number Description Average Reduction  % Reduction areal extent from Base from Base of saltwater (mi2)

(mi2) 0 Base 24.10 6 No WMD canals 23.34 0.76 3.15%

6. Construction and Operation of Controlled Freshwater Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Canals L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 25 of 34

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

7. Changes to Groundwater Use L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 26 of 34 Changes to the operation and capacity of nearby wellfields are included in base model Scenario 7a: Municipal Pumping
  • Eliminate municipal pumping from model
  • Run model, process results Scenario 7b: Agricultural Pumping
  • Eliminate agricultural pumping from model
  • Run model, process results

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12

7. Changes to Groundwater Use L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 27 of 34 Number Description Average areal Reduction  % Reduction extent of from Base from Base saltwater (mi2) (mi2) 0 Base 24.10 7A No municipal 23.94 0.16 0.66%

pumping 7B No ag pumping 23.93 0.17 0.71%

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 7a: Municipal Pumping L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 28 of 34

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 7b: Agricultural Pumping L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 29 of 34

8. Management and Operation of Mining Practices West Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 of the CCS L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 30 of 34 Progressive addition of mining is included in base model:
  • 3 mines/quarries
  • Water balance based on recharge / evapotranspiration differences (generally an ET draft)

Scenario 8:

  • Eliminate mines: assume natural conditions present in mine footprints
  • Run model, process results
  • Assesses influence of mine presence and water use
8. Management and Operation of Mining Practices West Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 of the CCS L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 31 of 34 Number Description Average areal Reduction  % Reduction extent of from Base from Base saltwater (mi2) (mi2) 0 Base 24.1 8 No mining 23.73 0.37 1.54%
8. Management and Operation of Mining Practices West Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 of the CCS L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 32 of 34

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Summary L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 33 of 34 Attribution analysis has been performed in accordance with FDEP requirements Model was updated to be better suited for this type of analysis Changes to areal extent of SWI:

Change in Areal Extent Attribution Scenario (sq mi)

CCS hypersalinity 2.65 Climate 1.30 WMD canals 0.76 Mining 0.37 Agricultural pumping 0.17 Municipal pumping 0.16 Land use 0.13 Sea-level rise 0.11 Seasonal canals 0.05 Local canals 0.01 TOTAL 5.72

Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Docket Nos. 50-250 and 50-251 FPL Response to NRC RAI No. WR-12 Conclusions L-2018-136 Attachment 53 Enclosure 1 Page 34 of 34 The analysis indicated that the most influential factors were:

  • CCS salinity > seawater
  • Climate,
  • WMD canal construction and operations The least influential factors were:
  • Local canals
  • Seasonal canals
  • Sea level rise*

Sea level rise over the past 9 years of most significant change may not have reached an equilibrium at the current comparison time. Its effect may therefore be underestimated.

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