ML063470412

2006/06/01-E-MAIL: (Intergovernmental) Plymouth Population & Buildout Data (Forecasts)

ML063470412
Person / Time
Site:	Pilgrim
Issue date:	06/01/2006
From:	Hartmann L Town of Plymouth, MA
To:	Parker A - No Known Affiliation, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
%dam200612, TAC 3698
Download: ML063470412 (12)

Text

Page 1 of 1 Spangler, Nicole From: Lee Hartmann [LHartmann@townhall.plymouth.ma.us]

Sent: Thursday, June 01, 2006 12:28 PM To: Parker, Andrew Cc: Mark Sylvia

Subject:

Plymouth Population & Buildout Data Attachments: Forecasts.pdf As we discussed, I am attaching the must recent population projections and buildout data for the Town. It is a part of a school feasibility study prepared by a new York based firm (Urbanomics) for the Town.

Lee Hartmann, AICP Director of Planning and Development Town Hall 11 Lincoln Street Plymouth, MA 02360 Ph. (508) 747-1620 (ext. 143)

Fax (508) 830-4116 Lhartmann~ctownhall.plymouth.ma.us 10/25/2006

FORECAST OF HOUSEHOLD POPULATION IN PLYMOUTH, MA: 2000-2030 Both Sexes By 5- 2000 FORECAST CHANGE:

Year Cohort CENSUS 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005-2030 Under5 3,477 3,556 3,630 3,932 4,306 4,588 4,758 1,202

'5 - 9 3,844 3,754 3,839 3,920 4,246 4,649 4,954 1,200 10-14 3,715 3,846 3,756 3,842 3,922 4,248 4,652 806 15- 19 3,138 3,536 3,661 3,575 3,657 3,734 4,045 509 2,224 2,769 3,121 3,231 3,156 3,229 3,298 528 25-29 2,940 2,602 3,241 3,649 3,778 3,698 3,782 1,179 30 - 34 4,069 3,595 3,180 3,961 4,461 4,620 4,521 925 35-39 4,453 4,370 3,863 3,416 4,255 4,794 4,966 596 40 - 44 4,273 4,682 4,596 4,066 3,590 4,474 5,044 362 45-49 3,917 4,043 4,430 4,351 3,851 3,404 4,243 201 50_-_54 3,850 4,460 4,607 5,053 4,966 4,398 3,890 -570 55- 59 2,618 4,349 5,046 5,216 5,723 5,632 4,992 643 60-64 1,698 2,587 4,309 5,018 5,190 5,690 5,610 3,023 65-69 1,289 1,562 2,386 3,986 4,655 4,830 5,311 3,750 70-74 1,193 1,092 1,331 2,045 3,433 4,029 4,198 3,105 75 - 79 1,000 946 861 1,063 1,659 2,809 3,330 2,384 80-84 759 734 698 641 801 1,268 2,172 1,439 85 & Over 810 861 898 919 918 1,046 1,458 597 Total 49,267 53,343 57,452 61,882 66,568 71,140 75,223 21,880 By Sex:

Male 23,812 25,812 27,687 29,667 31,733 33,698 35,436 9,624 Female 25,455 27,531 29,765 32,215 34,835 37,441 39,787 12,256 By Age Group:

Under20 14,174 14,692 14,886 15,269 16,131 17,219 18,410 3,718 20-35 9,233 8,967 9,541 10,841 11,395 11,547 11,600 2,633 35-45 8,726 9,052 8,459 7,481 7,845 9,268 10,010 958 45-65 12,083 15,438 18,392 19,638 19,730 19,123 18,734 3,296 65 & Over 5,051 5,194 6,173 8,654 11,467 13,982 16,469 11,275 Group Quarters 2432 2432 2432 2432 2432 2432 2432 0 Total Population 51,699 55,775 59,884 64,314 69,000 73,572 77,655 21,880 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000); Urbanomics (2005-2030 forecast)

Plymouth Population Projections: Household Population _

Components of Change: _

1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 12005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 Natural Increase I

+Births 3,634 3,373 3,5401 3,613 3,913 4,283 4,563 4,731

-Deaths -1,612 -1,837 -2,0861 -2,226 -2,455 -2,790 -3,233 -3,745 Net Migration 514 1,001 2,622 2,722 2,972 3,192 3,242 3,096 Hsld Pop at Start of Period 44,194 46,731 49,267 53,343 57,452 61,882 66,568 71,140 Components of Change 2,537 2,537 4,076 4,109 4,430 4,686 4,572 4,083 Hsld Pop at End of Period 46,731 49,267 53,343 57,452 61,882 66,568 71,140 75,223 Ave AnM % Increase 1.1% 1.1% 1.7%1 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1%

New Housing Units 1,016 1,403 1,9451 2,039 2,227 2,391 2,429 2,319 Ave Hsld Size 2.67 2.67 2.671 2.67 2.67 2.67 2.67 2.67 New Unit Population 2,713 3,746 5,1931 5,444 5,945 6,385 6,484 6,193 Ratio of New Unit Pop to NMig 5.27 3.74 1.981 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Ave New Units/Year 203 281 3891 408 445 478 486 464

% Inc of Housing Stock 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4%

SchoolAge Population 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Under 5 3,591 3,534 3,477 3,556 3,630 3,932 4,306 4,588 4,758 5-9 3,568 3,706 3,844 3,754 3,839 3,920 4,246 4,649 4,954 10-14 3,380 3,548 3,715 3,846 3,756 3,842 3,922 4,248 4,652 15-19 3,094 3,116 3,138 3,536 3,661 3,575 3,657 3,734 4,045 Total 13,633 13,904 14,174 14,692 14,886 15,269 16,131 17,219 18,410 PreK-12 Enrollment 8030 8740 9073

%of Pop 0-19 58.90% 62.86% 64.01%1 at: I 64.00% 64.00% 64.00% 64.00% 64.00% 64.00%

I 9403 9527 9772 10324 11020 11782 High School Enrollment 2063 2355 25321

% of Pop 15-19 66.68% 75.58% 80.69%

at: 80.00% 80.00% 80.00% 80.00% 80.00% 80.00%

2829 2929 2860 2926 2987 3236 Women in Child Bearing Ages:

1W0-49 iyears 13,964 14,214 14, 4 14,708 14,927 15,161 15,569 16,459 Live Births per 1000 52.0 47.5 49.0 49.1 52.4 56.5 58.6 57.5

Plymouth School District Enrollment By Grade, 1993-2028 Kinder- ! E ementar/ Middle School High School School Year Pre-K garten I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Other 1993 56 6691 715 720 716 707 648 684 655 626 650 576 503 500 2 1994 96 7351 718 710 721 717 720 597 676 656 639 605 544 473 1 1995 109 7181 761 719 711 702 714 697 589 665 669 604 578 504 1 1996 121 7031 767 739 715 700 704 702 702 586 681 637 564 530 0 1997 118 7101 741 745 739 718 687 679 690 699 630 619 589 515 0 1998 136 6911 780 736 726 738 671 631 637 672 724 547 564 554 0 1999 181 6331 770 758 749 721 685 669 670 639 694 642 488 549 6 2000 157 660 707 743 763 756 675 688 680 688 756 632 618 474 2 2001 182 661 725 683 753 763 701 682 718 697 838 639 609 577 7 2002 174 600 692 714 662 753 700 693 693 723 766 685 608 571 2 2003 168 657 637 649 694 636 736 728 735 715 813 659 653 570 10 2004 170 621 685 631 632 685 598 671 667 696 753 691 614 600 8 2005 214 5621 665 674 629 633 626 583 661 662 756 670 659 559 29 2006 211 6921 603 643 662 624 588 637 599 677 772 641 647 625 16 2007 218 6781 742 582 631 656 589 601 656 614 797 660 636 629 20 2008 226 6821 727 716 570 625 628 602 616 670 726 677 647 609 24 2009 233 684f 731 700 699 565 593 630 605 617 781 630 680 634 28 2010 238 6861 734 702 682 693 552 620 658 629 753 688 617 648 32 2011 244 6781 735 704 683 676 644 568 637 672 759 630 679 592 32 2012 255 6701 726 704 684 677 627 667 585 652 819 631 624 653 36 2013 263 6781 718 695 683 677 626 651 688 600 801 677 628 601 39 2014 274 6741 726 685 672 676 624 654 673 706 744 658 676 606 43 2015 284 6771 722 692 662 666 621 655 677 693 884 608 660 654 45 2016 290 6821 734 696 676 664 610 655 679 698 874 703 599 627 47 2017 295 6801 740 707 679 679 598 646 681 702 888 676 694 569 47 2018 304 6761 744 717 694 686 602 636 673 705 901 650 652 643 49 2019 312 6831 740 720 703 702 594 643 664 697 912 655 661 636 52 2020 321 6881 750 718 708 715 593 637 673 690 910 654 664 641 54 2021 329 6601 767 738 715 729 631 638 668 700 908 674 653 632 61 2022 338 6691 739 756 736 739 623 683 671 696 928 660 679 626 63 2023 346 6761 749 727 753 762 610 677 718 700 931 660 664 648 65 2024 354 6831 760 740 727 783 606 666 715 751 944 657 676 645 68 2025 362 6901 773 754 742 761 599 665 703 749 1021 658 672 654 71 2026 370 6681 750 735 726 746 556 659 704 738 1025 705 677 653 73 2027 378 6441 727 713 707 730 543 615 700 740 1019 701 727 659 76 2028 386 6191 701 690 685 711 529 603 654 737 1029 690 726 709 79 Source: Plymouth School District (1993-2005 October Enrollment); Urbanomics (2006-2028 Forecast)

Enrollment, PreK-12 Grade 1200 1000 f

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Enrollment Forecast by Type of School 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 ,,,:. .. .*

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-4'--Pre K, K, Elementary -- l- Middle School High School

Elementary School by Grade 91 Grade 5 01 Grade 4 U Grade 3 0 Grade 2 0 Grade 1 MKindergarten 0 Pre K 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027

Middle School Enrollment by Grade 2500 2000 -

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[] Grade 11 1500-l MGrade 10 E3 Grade 9 1000-500-1IilIII I o-9 997 20 I2 20 2011 I 201 rp I 2 I 201 I I I I 2023I I I 2027 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027

Forecast of Plymouth School District Enrollment by Grade -- 5 Year Moving Average School 9 1i2* Total+

Year Other PreK-5 6-8 912 Total PrivAtt'n PrivAttrn Historical 1993 2 4231 8427' 1994 1 4417 1929 , 2262 8608 1995 1 4434 1951 235§ 8741 1996 0 4449 1990 72412 8851 .

1997 0 4458 2068 2353 8879 1998 0 4478 1940 2389 8807' 1999 6 4498 1978 2379 8855 -

2000 2 4461 2056 24K. 8999 2001 7 4468 2097 2670 9235 2002 2 4295 2109w 2632 9036 2003 10 4177 2178 ~2705 9060 2004 8 4022 2034 2666, 8722 2005 29 4003 1906; ~2673ý 8582 2006 16 4022 1913 2703 8638 2007 20 4096 1871 2741 8708 "

2008 24 4172 1888 2683 8744 2009 28 4205 1852 2752 8809 2010 32 4287 1906 2737 8930 2877 9070 2011 32 4364 1877 2693 8934 ~2829 9070 2012 36 4343 1903 2764 9011 29 9143 2013 39 4339 1939 2747 9025 ý2876 9154 2014 43 4332 2033 2728 9094 2853 9219 2015 45 4324 2025 2851 9199 2972 9320 2016 47 4353 2032 2850 9235 2974 9359 2017 47 4378 2028 2873 9279 2999 9405 2018 49 4422 2014 2895 9331 3023 9459 2019 52 4454 2005 2915 9373 ~3046. 9504 2020 54 4491 2000 2922~ 9413 3055 9546 2021 61 4569 2006 2927 9503 3060 9635 2022 63 4600 2050 2956 9606 308& 9737 2023 65 4623 2096 2968 9687 3098 9817 2024 68 4654 2132 2989+ 9774 3119 9904 2025 71 4680 2117 3075 9872 3204 10001 2026 73 4550 2102 3133 9785 3274 9925 2027 76 4440 2054 3183 9677 3334 9829 2028 79 4320 1993 3234 9547 3396 9710

Tract Distribution of Forecasted Student Populations 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2028 Census High High High High High High Tract All School All School All School All School All School All School 530100 452 141 473 145 405 125 339 105 277 86 303 102 530200 369 115 397 122 463 143 570 177 516 161 533 181 530300 681 212 692 212 637 197 521 162 259 81 304 103 530400 955 297 939 288 735 228 536 166 438 136 489 166 530500 818 255 844 259 850 263 774 240 736 229 748 253 530600 881 274 870 267 947 293 1,060 329 1,513 471 1,415 479 530700 325 101 377 116 995 308 1,988 617 2,455 765 2,253 763 530800 1,611 502 1,813 556 1,825 565 1,515 470 1,443 450 1,393 472 530900 2,481 7731 2,517- 771 2,332 7231 2,098 651 2,232 6951 2,108 714 Plymouth 1 8,5721 Z26701 8,9221 2,7341[ 9,1881 2,847 1 9,4001[ Z2918 1 9,8701 3,0741~ 9,5451j 3,233

2028 High School Students by Tract of Residence Residence by Tract of High School Students 2005 530100 530200 530300 3.2% 5.6% 3.2% 530400 530900 51%

530100 530

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530600 530800 18.8% 530700 10.3%

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