ML17037C156

Nine Mile Point Unit 1 - Letter Regarding a Geological Report and a Request for Examination and Submittal of an Independent Opinion

ML17037C156
Person / Time
Site:	Nine Mile Point
Issue date:	02/21/1964
From:	Ewart J N Niagara Mohawk Power Corp
To:	Sutton G Lamont Geological Observatory
References
Download: ML17037C156 (14)

Text

J0~/SNIAGARAMOHAWKPOWERCORPORATIONNIAGARAMOHAWKBUFFALO8,N.Y.February211964Dr.GeorgeH.SuttonLamontGeologicalOb'servatoryPalisades,N.Y.

DearDr.Suttori'~Confirmingourtelephoneconversation'ofFebruary21,

Mr.JosephFischerwillhandyouacopyoftheDamesandMooregeologicalreportforourNineMilePointNuclearPowerStationonMonday,February24.Werequestthatyouexaminethisreportandrenderanindependentopinionofit.Pleasefeelfreetocomment,asanexpert,inanyareayouwishbutwewouldlikeyouropinioninthefollowingspecificcategories:l.IstheresufficientevidenceinthisreportthatthissiteisnotsubjecttoZone3earthquakerating,anddoyouagreewiththegroundaccelerationasspecified.?'"'.Doyouagreewiththehistoricalseismologicaldataofthesiteregardingthemagnitudeoftheshocksatlocationoftheepicenter?3.What'wouldyouconsidertobetheprobablemaximummagnitudeofshockthatmightoccurinthegeneralareawithina100-mileradiusofthesiteduringthenext200years?4.Whatdoyouconsiderthecrediblemagnitudeofshockthatmightoccurinthegeneralareaduringthenext200years?JWehaveworkedverycloselywithMr.Fischeronthisproject,soifyouneedfurtherclarificationofthequestionslistedherein,pleasefeelfreetodiscussthemwithhim.AsIindicatedtoyou,wewouldliketohaveyourreplyasearlyaspossibleinorderthatwecanincorporateitasapartofourpreliminaryharardssummaryreportwhichisdueonApril1~Verytrulyyours,J.N.EwartChiefSystemProjectEngineer4

~P ALPINEGEOPHYSICALASSOCIATES,ING.55OakStreet,Norwood,NewJersey~Cable:"ALPGEO"~201-768-8000March10,1964Mr..3.N.EwartChi,efSystemsProspectEngineerNiagaraHohawkPowerCorporatian5354/ashingtonStreetBuffalo,NewYorkOurFile3S-714

DearMr.Ewart:

Followinglsasummaryof'yopinionsbasedonacriticalreadingof'PartII,SectionC,EngineeringSeismology;SiteEvaluationStudy,ProposedNineHilePointNuclearPowerPlant;nearOswego,NewYork;fortheNiagaraMohawkPowerCorporation"preparedbyDamesandMaara.Inanswertothefourspecificquestionsyouraisedinyourletterof21February1964:(1)Ibelievethatthereshouldbesuf'flclentevidenceinthecitedreportbyDamesandMoore(hereaftercalled0-Mreport)thattheOswego,NewYorksiteisnotsub)ectedtoZone3earthquakeratingandthatthespecifiedgroundaccelerationsarereason-able.(2)Thehistoricalseismologicaldataregardingin-tensitiesandmagnitudesintheregionappearstobeaccuratelypresentedlntheD-Mreport.(3)Theprobablemaximummagnitudeshockthatmightoccurinthegeneralareawithin10Dmileradiusof'hesiteduringthenext2DOyearslsH~5.0ta57(maximumintensityI,~7to8).(4)Thecrediblemaximummagnitudeshockthatmightoccurwithin100mileradiusofthesiteduringthenext200yearsi,sM~7~0(Maximumintensitylo~9)~,Althoughtherecanbanaabsoluteguaranteethataverylargeshockwillnotoccurinthevicinityofthesita,ltappearstobefavorablylocatedwithrespecttoseismicrisk.

4II Hr.3.N.EwartMarch10,1964Historically,onlythreeshocksofintensityI~5orgreaterhaveoccurredwithin100milesofthesita;onenear50milesdistantandtwonear100milesdistant.TherearenoknownactivefaultsintheregionanditisunderlainbyrelativelyundeformedlowerPaleozoicrockswithhighmechanicalcompetence.SeismicityinthisgeneralregionseemstoberelatedtotheSt.LawrenceValley,marginaltothestableCanadianShield,andtotheancientAppalachianMountainsystem.HostoftheactivityrelatedtotheSt.LawrenceValleyisnortheastofthesitewhiletheactivityrelatedtotheAppalachiansystempasseswelleastofthesiteinthegeneralNE-SbJtrend.Similarzonesofrelativelyminorseismicactivityarecommonthroughouttheworldatthemarginsofstableshieldareasandalongmature(ancient)mountainsystems.TheoccurrenceofseveralearthquakeswestofthesiteinthegeneralvicinityofBuffalo,NewYork,requiressomecautioninassumingthatthehistoricalactivitywithin100milesofthesitevillberepresentativeoftheactivityinthenext200yearsorso.Also,Idonotbelievethatthestatementthattheseismicitymaybedecreasingasaresultofslackeningglacialreboundiscompletely)ustified,since,asmentionedabove,similarregionswhichhavenot'beenglsciatedinthepastfewthousandyearsexhibitsimilarseismicity.InordertoobtainsomestatisticalreliabilityIconsideredaregionofradius200milessurroundingthesite.Thisregionhas4timestheareaofthezonebeingconsidered.Thefollowingtableliststhenumberofhistoricalearth-quakeswithmaximumintensitiesequaltoorgreaterthanthestatedvalueinthisregion:nuabar41~IntanaitV(orgreater)VI(orgreater)VII(orgreater)VII1Iftheseismicitywithin100mileradiusofthesitewereequaltothatofthelargerregionthesenumberswouldbedividedby4.Aconservativeestimatetakingintoconsiderationtheactualhistoricaldistributionofshockswouldbetodivideby8.(Theprecisionofthedatamakesanysmallcorrection

'I Mr.J.N~EwartMarch10,1964forthetimefactor,200yearsspanincludesmoatoftheshocks,relativelyunimportant.)OnthisbasisoneearthquakeofmaximumintensityI,~7mightbeexpectedwithin100milesin200years.Ho~evertwointensity8earthquakeshaveoccurredatadistanceonlyslightlygreaterthen100milesfromthesite.Sinceveryfewmagnitudesoflargerearthquakesinthisregionhavebeenmeasureddirectly,itisnecessarytorelateintensitydatatomagnitudes.Theformula,M~2/3Io1.7logh-1.4whereMisRichterMagnitudeI,ismaximumModifiedMercalliintensityhisfocaldepthinkilometers,obtainedbyHarnikasanaverageofobservationsbyseveralinvestigatorsinvariousregions,wasusedforthispurpose.InaveryrecantstudybyIsacksofa300kmradiusareasurroundingnorthernNewDerseythisrelationwasfoundtobereliableforrelativelysmallearthquakesusingafocaldepthofabout10km.Previousstudiesoflargerearthquakesinthisgeneralregionindicategreaterfocaldepths(upto60km).OntheSeismicZoningMapofthe1958UniformBuildingCoda,preparedbytheU.S.C.EG.S.,theproposedsitefallsnorthofalineseparatingZone1(tothesouth)fromZone3.Thelinesonthismaparenecessarilysome~hatarbitraryandshouldbeusedonlyasageneralguide,especiallynearzoneboundaries.TheimmediatevicinityofthesiteshouldbeconsideredmoranearlyZone1or,perhaps,Zone2thanZone3.Sincerelyyours;;HS:GEGeorgeHESuttonAssoc.Prof.ofGeologyConsultantpprovedby:aerC.Beckmblann,PresidentALPINEGEOPHYSICALASSOCIATES)INC~

0I THEUNIVERSITYOFTHESTATEOFNEWYORKTHESTATEEDUCATIONDEPARTMENTAI.SANYINEWYORKI2224NCWYORKSTATCNVSCVNANOSCICNCCSCRVICCASSISTANTCOMMISSIONCRApril23,1968DamesandMoore100ChurchStreetNewYorkNewYork10017Gentlemen:Attention:~JosehA.PinchesInatelephoneconversationwithFredFoxyesterday,heindicatedthatyourcompanyispresentlyconcernedwiththetrendofstruc-turalandseismiclinesinNewYorkState,particularlywithre-specttotheOswegoarea.AlthoughIdonotconsidermyselfanexpertintheareaofgeo-physics,IamquitefamiliarwiththestructuraltrendsinNewYorkandhavehadoccasion,withinthelasttwoyears,toplotareasofseismicitywithintheState.ThereisnoindicationtomethatsuchabeltpassesthroughorneartheOswegoregion.Ibelievethatseismi,cactivityintheSt.Lawrencelowlandsislargelytheresultofshallowfocusmovementresultingfromreactivationalongfaultlinescausedbyiceoverloadingduri.ngtheglacialperiod.Theglacialreboundinthelast10,000yearshasbeeninthenatureof550feetintheareaofMontrealandprogressivelylesssouthwardintoNewYorkState.OtherstructuraltrendsinNewYorkStatearenortheast-southwestlineamentswhichtransecttheAdirondacks,roughlyeast-westfoldsintheFingerLakesareaandsouthwest,andnorthwest-southeasttrendinglineswhichappearonNimbusphotoscuttingacrosswesternNewYorkintheBuffaloandNi.agaraFallsareas.NoneoftheseindicateatrendrunningfromtheSt.LawrencelowlandssouthwardthroughOswegoandthenceacrosstheState,andIdonotbelievethatanyexists.DAMES&MOORENEWYORKRECEIVEDSincerelyyours,cc:F.Foxg(j"IooCMIIICCG.BrougonAssistantCommissioner(Acting)ReiseIJTOICPSIWJMII9ITETRSEI.JARRMC'TMNCL,CARIJWOMITJMHJ4 lIIt I2~I'ee~IINIAGARAMOHAWKPOWERCORPORATION.Ittllt&,NIAGARA~)MOHAWKBvvvAI.a,NEwYoRK$4203May31,1968(1)Thepassiblelinecannectio'nofopicenterssouth-weotwax'dframtheSt.LawrenceRivex'alloy.~/Dr.JackE.Olive'rIamantGeologicalObservatoryp"-~Palisades,NewYox'k10964LtDoaxDr.Oliver:~gEaxlyin'1964wecontactedDr.GeorgeSutton,whawasthonassoci-'tedwiththoLamantGeolagicalObservatory,farindependentreviewofthepreliminarygeologicalreportpx'eparodbyDamesandMooreforourNine'~MiloPointNuclearStation.%'enowfoolitisdeoirablotoobtaina,similar".independontreviewafasubsequentDamesandMo'ox'ereportentitled"SeiomicGeology,NineMilePaintNuclearPowerPlant,Noa'rOswego,NowYork."Vlehaveax'x'angedfoxMr.JosephFischertodoliveracopyofthisreporttotheObservatoryandxequeotthatyouoramemberofyouxstaffreviewit,asanexpert,andcommentinanyareayouwish.However,',~~~wewouldlike'opinionsinthefollowingspecificareas:'~4,1~v~'t~,I~~',r'~.t'~~al,,t,~(2)Lothereanyreasonpredicatedonnewinformationwhichwouldindicatethatthe11pex'centanticipatedm~mumgroundacceleratianpreviouslyadaptedaoadesignvalu'eshouldbechanged'lIIVehaveworkedveryclaoolywithher.Fischoronthisprojectsaifyouoryour"aosaciateonaodfurtherclarificationofthiswox'k,p)easefeelfreetadiocuooitwithhim.Wowould'appreciateareplybythefixotweekafJulyatthelatestforconsiderationinmeetingsscheduledwiththeAtomicEnergyCommission.tVarytrulyyours,JNE/jfw~N.Ewax'tChiefSyotorojoctEnginoorf.

tkg~o sLamontGeologicalObservatory'ofColumbiaUniversity~Palisades,NY..10984tCabfsAddrassrLamont,Pallsados,fsfswYorkStatsCoda0'f4,ELmwood0-0000June26,1968Mr.J.N.EwartChiefSyst;emProjectEngineerNiagaraMohawkPowerCorporationEhxffalo,NewYork14203

DearMr.Ewart:

DrOliverforwardedyourletterofMay31tomeandrequestedthat;IhandlethereviewoftheDamesand.Moorereportentitled."SeismicGeology,NineMilePointNuclearPowerPlantnearOswego,NevYork".Accordingly.Icontac+edMr.JosephFischerandarrangedwithhimameetingwithHr.FredFox.Ireceivedtheabove-mentionedreportfronMr.Foxanddiscussedtheworkwithhim.readthereport;carefullyandfurtherdiscussedseveralpointswithttfr.FoxandMr.Fischer.Thefollowingare~comnentsthatIhaveconcerningthereport.Iagreewiththebasicargumentofthereportthat'itisnotreasonabletoextrapolatetherelativelyh'.ghlevel.ofse~smicityoftheSt.TawrenceregiontotheareaoftheOswegosite.Inparticular,Ithinkthattheevidencefor+hecorrelat."onbetweenthehighseismicityoftheNewMadridenr3.St.lawrenceregionswithlocalizedfault;edstructuresofPaleozoicorlateragesisconvincing.Thisevidencereasonablyindicatesthat,evenifthealign-mentofepicentersisnotanartificeorisnotfortuitoutbelevetoi,'ei,sisicltyvariesslgnlfi.cantlyalongtbesupposedfeatureandappearstobecontrolledby'.localgeologicalstructure.IseenoproblemwiththeestimationofO.llgforthemaximumgroundaccelerat;ion".IsuggestedtoMr.Fischerthatheconsider,asapossiblealternative,theeffect;sofanearthquakethesizeoftheAtticaEarthquakelocatedverycloseoratthesiteinquestion.Yw.F.'.scherinform-edmethat.thiswouldnotsigrificantlyincreasetheestimatedacceleration.Ingener@3.,Iagreewiththebasicconclusionsofthereport.Pleasele~tmeknow'fyouwishfurther.deta11eddiscussionofsomepart<eulernoints.Sincerelyyours3ynL.Isacks

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