ML032510625

Indian Point Energy Center Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Executive Summary

ML032510625
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	05/31/2003
From:	KLD Associates
To:	Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME
References
NL-03-139 KLD TR-369
Download: ML032510625 (13)

Text

Indian Point Energy CenterES-1KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimatesRev. 1EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

This brief summary should be viewed as a preamble of the report. The reader is encouraged toreview the entire report.This report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to update theexisting Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) located inBuchanan, New York. Evacuation time estimates provide State and local governments with site-specific information helpful for Protective Action decision-making.In the performance of this effort, all available prior documentation relevant to Evacuation TimeEstimates was reviewed. Other guidance is provided by documents published by FederalGovernment agencies. Most important of these are: Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans andPreparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plans, NUREG 0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, November 1980. Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones, NUREG/CR-1745, November 1980. State of the Art in Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR-4831, March 1992.Overview of Project ActivitiesThis project began on May 1, 2002 and extended over a period of one year. The major activitiesperformed are briefly described in chronological sequence: Attended "kick-off" meetings with Entergy Nuclear Northeast (ENN) personnel, thenwith emergency management personnel of the four counties within the EmergencyPlanning Zone (EPZ) of IPEC. Reviewed prior ETE reports prepared for IPEC and accessed U.S. Census Bureau datafiles for the years 2000 and 1990. Studied large-scale highway maps of the area in thevicinity of IPEC, then conducted a detailed field survey of the highway network. Synthesized this information to create an analysis network representing the highwaysystem topology and capacities within the EPZ, extending to the four bounding InterstateHighways: (1) I-87 on the west; (2) I-87/287 on the south; (3) I-684 on the east; and (4) I-

84 on the north. Designed and sponsored a telephone survey of residents within the EPZ to gather focuseddata needed for this ETE study that were not contained within the census database. Thesurvey instrument was reviewed and modified by State and county personnel prior to thesurvey. Conducted additional mail and telephone surveys and accessed county and State data filesto quantify estimates of employment within the EPZ, identifying that portion who livedoutside the EPZ. Other surveys obtained information on transit-dependent and transient Indian Point Energy CenterES-2KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimatesRev. 1populations, and of available transit resources. In addition, the populations of "specialfacilities" (i.e., schools, health-related) were ascertained. The traffic demand and trip-generation rate of evacuating vehicles were estimated fromthe gathered data. The trip generation rate reflected the estimated mobilization time (i.e.,the time required by evacuees to prepare for the evacuation trip) that was computed using the results of the telephone survey of EPZ residents. Following federal guidelines, the EPZ is subdivided into 51 Emergency ResponsePlanning Areas (ERPAs). These are the same ERPAs used in the prior ETE studies.These ERPAs are then grouped to form circular areas or "keyhole" configurations (circlesplus radial sectors) that define a total of 35 Evacuation Regions. The time-varying circumstances are represented as Evacuation Scenarios, each describedin terms of the following factors: (1) Season (Summer, Winter, Autumn, Spring); (2) Dayof Week (Midweek, Weekend); (3) Time of Day (Midday, Evening); and (4) Weather(Good, Rain, Snow). Two special scenarios involving activities at West Point wereconsidered: Football Games and Commencement. A total of 14 scenarios are considered. The Planning Basis for the calculation of ETE is: A rapidly escalating accident at IPEC that quickly assumes the status ofGeneral Emergency such that the Advisory to Evacuate is virtually coincidentwith the siren alert. While an unlikely accident scenario, this planning basis will yield ETE,measured as the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the lastvehicle exits the impacted Region, that represent "upper bound" estimates.This conservative Planning Basis is applicable for all initiating events including the prospect of a terrorist attack. If the emergency occurs while schools are in session, the ETE study assumes that thechildren will be evacuated by bus directly to specified school reception centers locatedoutside the EPZ. Parents, relatives, and neighbors may pick up their children at schoolprior to the arrival of the buses dispatched for that purpose. The ETE for school childrenare calculated separately. Evacuees who do not have access to a private vehicle will either ride-share with relatives,friends or neighbors, or be evacuated by buses provided as specified in the countyevacuation plans. Those in special facilities will likewise be evacuated with publictransit, as needed: bus, van, or ambulance, as required. Separate ETE are calculated forthe transit-dependent evacuees and for those evacuated from special facilities.

Computation of ETEA total of 490 ETE were computed for the evacuation of the general public. Each ETEquantifies the aggregate evacuation time estimated for the population within one of the 35Evacuation Regions to completely evacuate from that Region, under the circumstances definedfor one of the 14 Evacuation Scenarios (35 x 14 = 490). Separate ETE are calculated for transit-dependent evacuees, including school children for applicable scenarios.

Indian Point Energy CenterES-3KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimatesRev. 1Except for Region R3, which is the evacuation of the entire EPZ, only a relatively small portionof the people within the EPZ would be advised to evacuate. That is, the Advisory to Evacuateapplies only to those people occupying the specified impacted region. It is assumed that 100 percent of the people within the impacted region will evacuate in response to this Advisory. Thepeople occupying the remainder of the EPZ outside the impacted region may be advised to takeshelter.The computation of ETE assumes that a portion of the population within the EPZ but outside theimpacted region, will elect to "voluntarily" evacuate. These voluntary evacuees could impedethose others who are evacuating from within the impacted region. The impedance that could becaused by voluntary evacuees is considered in the computation of ETE for the impacted region.The area outside the EPZ but within the bounding interstate highways identified earlier isidentified as the Shadow Region. This study assumes that a portion of the population occupyingthe shadow region will also elect to travel away from IPEC over the same time frame as those evacuating from within the impacted region. This "shadow evacuation" could also impede themovement of evacuees from within the impacted region. This potential impedance of evacuees is also considered in the computations of ETE.The computational procedure is outlined as follows: A link-node representation of the highway network is coded. Each link represents aunidirectional length of highway; each node usually represents an intersection or mergepoint. The capacity of each link is estimated based on the field survey observations and on established procedures. The evacuation trips are generated at locations called "zonal centroids" located within theEPZ and within the Shadow Region. The trip generation rates vary over time reflectingthe mobilization process, and from one location (centroid) to another depending on population density and on whether a centroid is within, or outside, the impacted area. The computer models compute the routing patterns for evacuating vehicles that arecompliant with federal guidelines (outbound relative to the location of IPEC), thensimulate the traffic flow movements over space and time. This simulation processestimates the rate that traffic flow exits the impacted region. The ETE statistics provide the elapsed times for 50 percent, 90 percent, 95 percent and100 percent, respectively, of the population within the impacted region, to evacuate fromwithin the impacted region. These statistics are presented in tabular and graphicalformats.Traffic ManagementThis study includes the development of a comprehensive traffic management plan designed toexpedite the evacuation of people from within an impacted region. This plan is also designed tocontrol access into the EPZ after returning commuters have rejoined their families.The plan takes the form of detailed schematics specifying: (1) the directions of evacuation travelto be facilitated and other traffic movements to be discouraged; (2) the equipment needed (cones, Indian Point Energy CenterES-4KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimatesRev. 1barricades) and their deployment; (3) the locations of these "Traffic Control Points" (TCP); (4)the priority assigned to each traffic control point indicating its relative importance and how soon it should be manned relative to others; and (5) the number of traffic control personnel required.Over the coming months this plan will be reviewed with State and local law enforcementpersonnel. The Traffic Management Plan will incorporate revisions made as a result of this review.Selected ResultsA compilation of selected information is presented on the following pages in the form of Figuresand Tables extracted from the body of the report; these are described below. Figure 3-1 displays a map of the IPEC site showing the layout of the 51 EmergencyResponse Planning Areas (ERPAs) that comprise, in aggregate, the Emergency PlanningZone (EPZ). Table 3-2 presents the estimates of permanent resident population in each ERPA basedon the 2000 Census data. Extrapolation to the year 2003 reflects population growth ratesin each county derived from census data. Table 6-1 defines each of the 35 Evacuation Regions in terms of their respective groupsof ERPAs. The tabulation also identifies the azimuths of the underlying sectorsassociated with the keyhole configurations of Regions R4 through R35. Table 6-2 lists the 14 Evacuation Scenarios. Table 7-1D is a compilation of Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). These data are thetimes needed to clear the indicated regions of 100 percent of the population occupyingthese regions. These computed ETE include consideration of mobilization time, and ofestimated voluntary evacuations from other regions within the EPZ and from the shadow region. Tables 8-9, 8-10 and 8-11 present ETE for school evacuation, transit-dependent evacueesand evacuees from special facilities, respectively. All these evacuees will be transportedby bus, van or ambulance, as appropriate.We wish to express our appreciation to all the directors and staff members of the Orange,Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester County Emergency Management Offices, the variouscounty planning offices, New York State Emergency Management Office (SEMO), and local andstate law enforcement agencies, who provided valued guidance and contributed information

contained in this report.

Indian Point Energy CenterES-5KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimatesRev. 1Figure 3-1. Indian Point Energy Center EPZ ERPAs Indian Point Energy CenterES-6KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimatesRev. 1Table 3-2. EPZ Permanent Resident Population GrowthPopulationPopulationERPA20002003ERPA20002003 12,1712,206 272,2002,270 2 22,459 22,826 28 52 54 3 1,273 1,294 29 1,143 1,170 4 3,534 3,592 30 12,968 13,271 5 957 973 31 31,314 33,267 6 7,589 7,713 32 4,973 5,089 7 185 188 33 10,616 10,864 8 11,156 11,338 34 7,428 7,602 9 4,486 4,559 35 23,681 24,235 10 8,021 8,152 36 2,601 2,662 11 18,086 18,382 37 23,220 23,763 12 3,102 3,153 38 60 61 13 7,124 7,240 39 19 20 14 2,688 2,732 40 561 579 15 1,284 1,305 41 174 178 16 532 553 42 - -

17 1,927 2,005 43 - -

18 3,533 3,675 44 - -

19 6,851 7,127 45 - -

20 4,110 4,275 46 - -

21 4,785 4,863 47 332 337 22 29,454 29,936 48 3,483 3,540 23 2,523 2,625 49 2,820 2,866 24 7,134 7,360 50 471 479 25 932 962 51 8,277 8,412 26 5,353 5,523TOTAL 297,642 305,276 Indian Point Energy CenterES-7KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimatesRev. 1 Indian Point Energy CenterES-8KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimatesRev. 1Table 6-1. Definition of Evacuation RegionsREGIONERPAs INORANGECOUNTYERPAs INPUTNAMCOUNTYERPAs INROCKLANDCOUNTYERPAs IN WESTCHESTERCOUNTYDESCRIPTION OFREGIONERPAs IN REGION R139NONE29, 38, 391-4, 7, 44Entire 2 mile ring1-4, 7, 29, 38, 39, 44 R226, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-31, 38-401-9, 43, 44, 47-49Entire 5 mile ring1-9, 16, 18, 24, 26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49 R324-28, 39, 4016-20, 23, 45, 4629-411-15, 21, 22, 42-44, 47-51Full EPZ1-512 Mile Ring and Sector to 5 Miles R426, 39, 4516, 18, 4529, 38, 391-4, 7, 8, 44N1-4, 7, 8, 16, 18, 26, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R539, 4516, 18, 4529, 38, 39, 44, 451-4, 7-9, 44, 45NNE1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R63916, 1829, 38, 39, 441-4, 7-9, 44, 49NE1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 R739NONE29, 38, 39, 441-4, 7-9, 44, 49ENE1-4, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 R839NONE29, 38, 39, 441-5, 7-9, 44, 48, 49E1-5, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 48, 49 R939NONE29, 38, 39, 441-7, 9, 44,47-49ESE1-7, 9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 47-49R1039NONE29, 38, 39, 43, 441-7, 43, 44, 47-49SE1-7, 29, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49R1139NONE29-31, 38, 39, 43, 441-7, 43, 44,47-49SSE1-7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49R1239NONE29-31, 38, 39, 43, 441-4, 6, 7, 43, 44, 47, 48S1-4, 6, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47, 48R1339NONE29-31, 38, 39, 43, 441-4, 7, 43, 44SSW1-4, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44R1439, 40NONE29-31, 38-40, 43, 441-4, 7, 43, 44SW1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 43, 44R1539, 40NONE29-31, 38-40, 441-4, 7, 44WSW1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 44R1639, 40NONE29, 30, 38-40, 441-4, 7, 44W1-4, 7, 29, 30, 38-40, 44R1724, 26, 39, 40, 454529, 30, 38-40, 44, 451-4, 7, 44, 45WNW1-4, 7, 24, 26, 29, 30, 38-40, 44, 45R1824, 26, 39, 40, 4516, 4529, 38-40, 44, 451-4, 7, 44, 45NW1-4, 7, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38-40, 44, 45R1924, 26, 39, 40, 4516, 4529, 38, 39, 40, 44, 451-4, 7, 8, 44, 45NNW1-4, 7, 8, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38, 39, 40, 44, 45 R139NONE29, 38, 391-4, 7, 44Entire 2 mile ring1-4, 7, 29, 38, 39, 44 R226, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-31, 38-401-9, 43, 44, 47-49Entire 5 mile ring1-9, 16, 18, 24, 26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49 R324-28, 39, 4016-20, 23, 45, 4629-411-15, 21, 22, 42-44, 47-51Full EPZ1-512 Mile Ring and Sector to 5 Miles R426, 39, 4516, 18, 4529, 38, 391-4, 7, 8, 44N1-4, 7, 8, 16, 18, 26, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R539, 4516, 18, 4529, 38, 39, 44, 451-4, 7-9, 44, 45NNE1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R63916, 1829, 38, 39, 441-4, 7-9, 44, 49NE1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 R739NONE29, 38, 39, 441-4, 7-9, 44, 49ENE1-4, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 Indian Point Energy CenterES-9KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimatesRev. 1Table 6-1. Definition of Evacuation RegionsREGIONERPAs INORANGECOUNTYERPAs INPUTNAMCOUNTYERPAs INROCKLANDCOUNTYERPAs IN WESTCHESTERCOUNTYDESCRIPTION OFREGIONERPAs IN REGION R839NONE29, 38, 39, 441-5, 7-9, 44, 48, 49E1-5, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 48, 49 R939NONE29, 38, 39, 441-7, 9, 44,47-49ESE1-7, 9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 47-49R1039NONE29, 38, 39, 43, 441-7, 43, 44, 47-49SE1-7, 29, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49R1139NONE29-31, 38, 39, 43, 441-7, 43, 44,47-49SSE1-7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49R1239NONE29-31, 38, 39, 43, 441-4, 6, 7, 43, 44, 47, 48S1-4, 6, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47, 48R1339NONE29-31, 38, 39, 43, 441-4, 7, 43, 44SSW1-4, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44R1439, 40NONE29-31, 38-40, 43, 441-4, 7, 43, 44SW1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 43, 44R1539, 40NONE29-31, 38-40, 441-4, 7, 44WSW1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 44R1639, 40NONE29, 30, 38-40, 441-4, 7, 44W1-4, 7, 29, 30, 38-40, 44R1724, 26, 39, 40, 454529, 30, 38-40, 44, 451-4, 7, 44, 45WNW1-4, 7, 24, 26, 29, 30, 38-40, 44, 45R1824, 26, 39, 40, 4516, 4529, 38-40, 44, 451-4, 7, 44, 45NW1-4, 7, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38-40, 44, 45R1924, 26, 39, 40, 4516, 4529, 38, 39, 40, 44, 451-4, 7, 8, 44, 45NNW1-4, 7, 8, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38, 39, 40, 44, 45 Indian Point Energy CenterES-10 KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario DefinitionsScenarioSeasonDay of WeekTime of DayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13AutumnWeekendMiddayGoodWest PointFootball14SpringMidweekMiddayGoodWest PointGraduation Indian Point Energy CenterES-11 KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1 Indian Point Energy CenterES-12KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 8-10. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time EstimatesRegion Extends to 5 MilesRegion Extends to EPZBoundarySecond Wave Completion(if needed)

County GoodWeatherRainSnow GoodWeatherRainSnow GoodWeatherRainSnowOrange4:354:505:255:055:205:557:307:559:35Putnam4:154:505:004:404:505:256:507:108:05Rockland4:354:505:255:055:205:558:008:109:10Westchester4:505:306:055:206:156:508:259:4010:35Table 8-11. Ambulatory Evacuees from SpecialFacilities Evacuation Time EstimatesETE to Leave EPZ County GoodWeatherRainSnowTable 8-9. School Evacuation Time EstimatesETE to Leave EPZETE to Reception Center County GoodWeatherRainSnow GoodWeatherRainSnowOrange2:553:053:403:253:354:20Putnam2.452:503:253:303:354:25Rockland2:553:053:404:254:353:30Westchester3:053:304:054:054:305:20 Indian Point Energy CenterES-13KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Orange3:504:004:35Putnam3:403:454:20Rockland3:504:004:35Westchester4:004:255:00