ML032510774
| ML032510774 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 05/31/2003 |
| From: | KLD Associates |
| To: | Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME |
| References | |
| NL-03-139 KLD TR-369 | |
| Download: ML032510774 (9) | |
Text
Indian Point Energy Center 2-1 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 2.
STUDY ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONS This section presents an enumeration of the estimates and assumptions utilized in the development of the evacuation time estimates.
2.1 Data Estimates
- 1.
Population estimates are based upon Census 2000 data, projected to year 2003.
County-specific projections are based upon growth rates estimated by comparing the 1990 and 2000 census data. Where specific areas within the county experiences growth rates that are different than the county-wide average, these areas are considered separately. Estimates of employees who commute into the EPZ to work are based upon the New York State Journey to Work Database, applied to the Year 2000 employment data stratified on an ERPA basis. Specific major employers were also considered.
- 2.
Population estimates at special facilities are based on available data, telephone contacts and mail surveys.
- 3.
Roadway capacity estimates are based on field surveys and the application of Highway Capacity Manual 20001. Roads, which are seasonally closed, are identified in the county-specific assumptions section.
- 4.
Population mobilization times are based on a statistical analysis of data acquired by a telephone survey. No assumptions are made, all times are supported by local data.
- 5.
The relationship between resident population and evacuating vehicles is developed from the results of the telephone survey detailed in Appendix F.
Results are reported on a county by county basis:
Vehicle Occupancy Rates County Household Size Evacuating Vehicles Per Household2 Persons per Evacuating Vehicle Orange 2.84 1.26 2.24 Putnam 3.10 1.27 2.44 Rockland 3.36 1.25 2.68 Westchester 2.84 1.24 2.28 1 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM2000), Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, 2000.
2 Compare the telephone survey results with Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, THE MISSISSAUGA EVACUATION FINAL REPORT, June 1981. The report indicates that 75,500 households evacuated the area using 93,400 vehicles, yielding 1.24 evacuating vehicles per household. (Page 5-10).
Indian Point Energy Center 2-2 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
- 6.
The relationship between persons and vehicles for special facilities is as follows:
- a.
Hotel/motel: one vehicle per room (Source: telephone contacts with individual facilities)
- b.
Recreational: 2.3 persons per vehicle excluding buses (Source: empirical observations at Seabrook and Pilgrim EPZ recreation facilities)
- c.
Employees: 1.05 - 1.07 employees per vehicle (2000 Census)
- 7.
Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) will be presented for the 100 percentiles of population for each Region and for each Scenario, and for the 2-mile, 5-mile and 10-mile distances. ETEs will also be presented in tabular format and graphically showing the values of ETE associated with the 50, 90 and 95 percentiles of population. A Region is defined as a group of Emergency Response Planning Areas (ERPAs) that is issued the Advisory to Evacuate.
2.2 Study Methodological Assumptions
- 1.
The Evacuation Time is defined as the period of time between the Advisory to Evacuate issued to a specific Region of the EPZ and the time that Region is clear of people.
- 2.
This evacuation time estimate study is in strict compliance with NUREG 0654 and related guidelines.
- 3.
The ETEs are computed and presented in a format compliant with NUREG 0654, CR-1745 and CR-4831. The ETE for each evacuation area (Region comprised of included ERPAs) will be presented in both statistical and graphical formats.
- 4.
Evacuation movements (paths of travel) will be generally outbound relative to the power station to the extent permitted by the highway network, as computed by the computer models. All available evacuation routes will be used in the analysis.
- 5.
Regions are defined by the underlying keyhole or circular configurations as specified in NUREG 0654. These Regions, as defined, display irregular boundaries reflecting all the ERPAs included within these underlying configurations.
- 6.
The impact of the shadow effect on the ETE for those evacuating the specified Region, will be determined as part of the analysis. Shadow evacuation will be dealt with as indicated in the accompanying Figure 2-1. Within the circle defined by the distance to be evacuated, 50 percent of the people not advised to evacuate are assumed to evacuate within the same time-frame. In the annular area between the circle defined by the extent of the evacuation order and the EPZ boundary, it is assumed that 35 percent of people will voluntarily evacuate.
Indian Point Energy Center 2-3 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 In the area between the EPZ boundary and the bounding interstate highways, it will be assumed that 30 percent of the people will evacuate voluntarily.
Sensitivity studies explored the effect on ETE, of increasing the percentage of voluntary evacuees in this area (Appendix I).
- 7.
A total of 14 Scenarios representing different seasons, time of day, day of week and weather were considered. Two special event scenarios were also included.
These Scenarios are tabulated below:
Area to be Evacuated: 100 Percent Evacuated 50 Percent Voluntary Evacuation 35 Percent Voluntary Evacuation Shadow Evacuation Area To Bounding Interstates: 30 Percent Voluntary Evacuation Figure 2-1. Shadow Evacuation Methodology
Indian Point Energy Center 2-4 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Scenarios Season Day of Week Time of Day Weather Special Events 1
Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2
Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3
Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4
Summer Weekend Midday Rain None 5
Summer
- Midweek, Weekend Evening Good None 6
Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7
Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8
Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9
Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None 12 Winter
- Midweek, Weekend Evening Good None 13 Autumn Weekend Midday Good West Point Football 14 Spring Midweek Midday Good West Point Graduation
- 8.
The models of the IDYNEV System represent the state of the art, and have been recognized as such by Atomic Safety Licensing Boards (ASLB) in past hearings.
(Sources: Atomic Safety & Licensing Board Hearings on Seabrook and Shoreham; Urbanik3).
2.3 Study Assumptions
- 9.
The Planning Basis Assumption for the calculation of ETE is a rapidly escalating accident that requires evacuation, and includes the following:
a.
Advisory to Evacuate will be announced coincident with the siren alert.
b.
Mobilization of the general population will commence within 10 minutes after siren alert.
c.
ETE are measured relative to Advisory to Evacuate.
3 Urbanik, T., et. al. Benchmark Study of the I-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code, NUREG/CR-4873, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, June, 1988
Indian Point Energy Center 2-5 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 A rapidly escalating accident scenario assumes that the general population will evacuate over the same time frame as do the school children, the transit-dependent population, and the special facility population. This assumption generally leads to longer evacuation time estimates than those for accidents that are more slowly escalating.
- 10.
It is assumed that everyone within the group of ERPAs forming a Region that is issued an Advisory to Evacuate will, in fact, respond in general accord with the planned routes.
- 11.
It is further assumed that:
- a.
No early dismissal to home of school children is contemplated.
- b.
Parents with access to vehicles will pick up their children from school (if in session), as well as those of neighbors and friends who do not have access to vehicles, to the aggregate extent of at least half of all school children.
- c.
A portion of those households with access to a vehicle will evacuate without awaiting the arrival home of all commuters. Data from the telephone survey indicate that approximately 40 percent of households with commuters, who have other vehicles available for evacuation, will not wait for the commuter to arrive home before leaving the area.
- 12.
A portion of the population outside the evacuated Region will elect to evacuate even though not advised to do so (shadow effect). This portion is assumed to be:
- a.
50 percent of the population residing within the radial distance (5 or 10 miles) of the evacuated Region.
- b.
35 percent of the population residing beyond this radial distance, but within the EPZ.
- c.
30 percent of the population residing outside the EPZ but within the four bounding Interstate Highways.
Assumptions a. and b. are bounded by the limiting case of an evacuation of the entire EPZ simultaneously. Assumption c. is tested by varying the percentage of voluntary evacuees and determining the associated change in ETE value. See Appendix I.
- 13.
Selected special facilities in Rockland County and Westchester County will shelter rather than evacuate. No such facilities are identified in Orange or Putnam.
Indian Point Energy Center 2-6 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
- 14.
The ETE will also include consideration of through (External-External) trips during the time that such traffic is permitted to enter the evacuated Region.
Normal traffic flow is assumed to be present within the EPZ at the start of the emergency.
- 15.
Access Control Points (ACP) will be staffed within approximately 1 - 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> following the siren notifications, to divert traffic attempting to enter the EPZ.
Earlier activation of ACP locations would delay returning commuters. It is assumed that no vehicles will enter the EPZ after this 1 - 2 hour2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> time period.
- 16.
Traffic Control Points (TCP) within the EPZ will be staffed over time, beginning at the Advisory to Evacuate. Their number and location will depend on the Region to be evacuated and resources available. It is assumed that drivers will act rationally, travel in the directions identified in the plan, and obey all control devices and traffic guides.
- 17.
Traffic Control Points (TCP) outside the EPZ will be established to facilitate evacuation flow through the shadow evacuation area.
- 18.
Buses will be used to transport those without access to private vehicles:
- a.
If schools are in session, transport (buses) will evacuate students not previously picked up by their families, directly to the assigned school reception centers. It is assumed that half the children will be picked up by parents, neighbors or friends of the family prior to the arrival of buses.
We also identify the number of buses required if all children are evacuated by bus.
- b.
Buses needed to evacuate special facilities are estimated based on need and on in-house vehicle availability.
- c.
School children, if in session, will be given priority.
- d.
Bus mobilization time will be considered in ETE calculations.
- e.
Analysis of the number of required waves of transit-based evacuation, is presented.
- 19.
The transit-dependent portion of the general population will be evacuated to reception centers by bus. It is reasonable to assume that a proportion of this population will ride-share with family, neighbors, and friends, thus reducing the demand for buses. We assume that the percentage of people who rideshare is 50 percent. This assumption is based upon reported experience in other emergency situations,4 which cites previous evacuation experience.
4 Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, THE MISSISSAUGA EVACUATION FINAL REPORT, June 1981. The report indicates that 6,600 people of a transit-dependent population of 8,600 people shared rides with other residents; a ride share rate of 76% (Page 5-10).
Indian Point Energy Center 2-7 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1
- 20.
Current plans indicate that the rail lines through the EPZ make the decision to halt service. The decision is based upon recommendations from the Westchester County Executive in consultation with the other counties and the state. It is reasonable to assume that rail service would continue until about 90 minutes after the order to evacuate is issued. In this way, reverse commuters and residents seeking to return home have an opportunity to complete their trips before service is suspended. Evacuation buses should be routed through the train stations to transport people who have congregated there. The public should be informed that evacuation buses would stop at the train stations as part of the EAS messaging or emergency information bulletins. This strategy may be modified in the event that a radiological release affects the rail lines.
- 21.
Two types of adverse weather scenarios are considered. Rain may occur for either winter or summer scenarios. In the case of rain, it is assumed that the rain begins at about the same time as the evacuation advisory is issued. Thus transient populations are not affected. That is, no weather-related reduction in the number of transients who may be present in the EPZ is assumed.
Snow may occur in winter scenarios. Transient population reductions are not assumed for snow scenarios. Further, it is assumed that roads are passable and that the appropriate agencies are plowing the roads as they would normally.
Adverse weather scenarios affect roadway capacity, free flow highway speeds and the time required to mobilize the general population. The factors assumed for the ETE study are:
Scenario Highway Capacity*
Free Flow Speed*
Mobilization Time Rain 90%
90%
No Effect Snow 80%
80%
Clear driveway before leaving home (Source: Telephone survey)
- Adverse weather capacity and speed values are given as a percentage of good weather conditions
- 22.
School buses used to transport the transit-dependent general population and students are assumed to load below capacity to reflect some inefficiency in loading. The assumed load factors vary and are detailed in Section 8. Children below the age of Middle School are assumed to occupy 2/3 of an adult seat.
- 23.
County-specific assumptions are listed in Table 2-1.
Indian Point Energy Center 2-8 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 2-1. County-Specific List of Assumptions Issue Orange County Putnam County Rockland County Westchester County Special Facility Evacuation
Number of waves dependent on transit resources identified
No shelter-only special facilities
Number of waves dependent on transit resources identified
No shelter-only special facilities
Number of waves will be determined based on transit resources identified:
75 percent of buses are assumed to be available for school evacuations
School buses will seat 3 small children per 2-seats (elementary schools)
School buses will seat 1 person per seat (middle and high schools)
Special Facilities that shelter -
Riverside Nursing Home (Haverstraw)
Green Hills Nursing Home (Haverstraw)
County Correctional Facility (New City)
Yeager Health Complex (Pomona)
Helen Hays Hospital (Haverstraw)
Number of waves will be determined based on transit resources identified
Special Facilities that shelter - VA
- Hospital, Montrose; Sing Sing
- Prison, Ossining Telephone Survey Results
County Data used to estimate vehicle usage
Trip Generation distributions utilize full database
County Data used to estimate vehicle usage
Trip Generation distributions utilize full database
County Data used to estimate vehicle usage
Trip Generation distributions utilize full database
County Data used to estimate vehicle usage
Trip Generation distributions utilize full database Ride-sharing
Transit requirements will assume 50 percent ridesharing.
Buses transporting transients to state parks are assumed to stay at the park and transport those people out of the EPZ
Transit requirements will assume 50 percent ridesharing.
All buses are available
Transit requirements will assume 50 percent ridesharing.
Buses transporting transients to state parks are assumed to stay at the park and transport those people out of the EPZ.
Transit requirements will assume 50 percent ridesharing Seasonal
Arden Valley Road
None
None
Route 9A
Indian Point Energy Center 2-9 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Issue Orange County Putnam County Rockland County Westchester County Road Closures
Tiorati Brook Road
Cedar Pond Road
Seven Lakes Parkway between Route 9W/202 and PIP
Lake Welch Parkway between PIP and Seven Lakes Parkway.
Storm King Road (Rt. 218) (Periodic closures due to snow, flooding, and rock slides) between Route 9 and Hawkes Road will have its capacity reduced by 50 percent under adverse weather conditions Special Events
USMA football
USMA graduation
None
None
None Statistics Household size = 2.84 Evac. Veh = 1.26 Veh Occup. = 2.24 Household size = 3.10 Evac Vehs = 1.27 Veh Occup = 2.44 Household size = 3.36 Evac Vehs = 1.25 Veh Occup = 2.68 Household size =
2.84 Evac Vehs = 1.24 Veh Occup = 2.28 Household size is the average number of persons in a household.
Evac. Vehs. is the average number of evacuating vehicles per household.
Veh. Occup. Is the average of persons occupying an evacuating vehicle. This is a derived statistic, obtained as Household SizeEvac. Veh.