ML032510774

Indian Point Energy Center Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Chapter 2

ML032510774
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	05/31/2003
From:	KLD Associates
To:	Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME
References
NL-03-139 KLD TR-369
Download: ML032510774 (9)

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Indian Point Energy Center2-1KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 12.STUDY ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONSThis section presents an enumeration of the estimates and assumptions utilized in thedevelopment of the evacuation time estimates.2.1Data Estimates

1. Population estimates are based upon Census 2000 data, projected to year 2003.County-specific projections are based upon growth rates estimated by comparingthe 1990 and 2000 census data. Where specific areas within the county experiences growth rates that are different than the county-wide average, theseareas are considered separately. Estimates of employees who commute into the EPZ to work are based upon the New York State Journey to Work Database, applied to the Year 2000 employment data stratified on an ERPA basis. Specificmajor employers were also considered.

2. Population estimates at special facilities are based on available data, telephonecontacts and mail surveys.

3. Roadway capacity estimates are based on field surveys and the application ofHighway Capacity Manual 2000

1. Roads, which are seasonally closed, areidentified in the county-specific assumptions section.

4. Population mobilization times are based on a statistical analysis of data acquiredby a telephone survey. No assumptions are made, all times are supported by local data.5. The relationship between resident population and evacuating vehicles isdeveloped from the results of the telephone survey detailed in Appendix F.Results are reported on a county by county basis:Vehicle Occupancy Rates CountyHouseholdSizeEvacuatingVehicles PerHousehold 2Persons perEvacuatingVehicleOrange2.841.262.24Putnam3.101.272.44Rockland3.361.252.68Westchester2.841.242.28

1 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM2000), Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, 2000.

2 Compare the telephone survey results with Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, THEMISSISSAUGA EVACUATION FINAL REPORT, June 1981. The report indicates that 75,500 households evacuated the area using 93,400 vehicles, yielding 1.24 evacuating vehicles per household. (Page 5-10).

Indian Point Energy Center2-2KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1 6. The relationship between persons and vehicles for special facilities is as follows:

a. Hotel/motel: one vehicle per room (Source: telephone contacts withindividual facilities)

b. Recreational: 2.3 persons per vehicle excluding buses (Source: empiricalobservations at Seabrook and Pilgrim EPZ recreation facilities)

c. Employees: 1.05 - 1.07 employees per vehicle (2000 Census)

7. Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) will be presented for the 100 percentiles ofpopulation for each Region and for each Scenario, and for the 2-mile, 5-mile and10-mile distances. ETEs will also be presented in tabular format and graphicallyshowing the values of ETE associated with the 50, 90 and 95 percentiles of population. A Region is defined as a group of Emergency Response PlanningAreas (ERPAs) that is issued the Advisory to Evacuate.2.2Study Methodological Assumptions

1. The Evacuation Time is defined as the period of time between the Advisory toEvacuate issued to a specific Region of the EPZ and the time that Region is clear

of people.

2. This evacuation time estimate study is in strict compliance with NUREG 0654and related guidelines.

3. The ETEs are computed and presented in a format compliant with NUREG 0654,CR-1745 and CR-4831. The ETE for each evacuation area ("Region" comprised of included ERPAs) will be presented in both statistical and graphical formats.

4. Evacuation movements (paths of travel) will be generally outbound relative to thepower station to the extent permitted by the highway network, as computed by the computer models. All available evacuation routes will be used in the analysis.

5. Regions are defined by the underlying "keyhole" or circular configurations asspecified in NUREG 0654. These Regions, as defined, display irregular boundaries reflecting all the ERPAs included within these underlying configurations.

6. The impact of the "shadow effect" on the ETE for those evacuating the specifiedRegion, will be determined as part of the analysis. Shadow evacuation will bedealt with as indicated in the accompanying Figure 2-1. Within the circle defined by the distance to be evacuated, 50 percent of the people not advised to evacuateare assumed to evacuate within the same time-frame. In the annular area betweenthe circle defined by the extent of the evacuation order and the EPZ boundary, itis assumed that 35 percent of people will voluntarily evacuate.

Indian Point Energy Center2-3KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1In the area between the EPZ boundary and the bounding interstate highways, itwill be assumed that 30 percent of the people will evacuate voluntarily.

Sensitivity studies explored the effect on ETE, of increasing the percentage of voluntary evacuees in this area (Appendix I).

7. A total of 14 "Scenarios" representing different seasons, time of day, day of weekand weather were considered. Two special event scenarios were also included.

These Scenarios are tabulated below:Area to beEvacuated: 100Percent Evacuated50 PercentVoluntary Evacuation35 Percent VoluntaryEvacuationShadow EvacuationArea To Bounding Interstates: 30Percent VoluntaryEvacuationFigure 2-1. Shadow Evacuation Methodology Indian Point Energy Center2-4KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1ScenariosSeasonDay of WeekTime of DayWeatherSpecial Events1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13AutumnWeekendMiddayGoodWest Point Football14SpringMidweekMiddayGoodWest Point Graduation

8. The models of the IDYNEV System represent the state of the art, and have beenrecognized as such by Atomic Safety Licensing Boards (ASLB) in past hearings.

(Sources: Atomic Safety & Licensing Board Hearings on Seabrook and Shoreham; Urbanik 3).2.3Study Assumptions

9. The Planning Basis Assumption for the calculation of ETE is a rapidly escalatingaccident that requires evacuation, and includes the following:a.Advisory to Evacuate will be announced coincident with the siren alert.b.Mobilization of the general population will commence within 10 minutesafter siren alert.c.ETE are measured relative to Advisory to Evacuate.

3 Urbanik, T., et. al. Benchmark Study of the I-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code, NUREG/CR-4873, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, June, 1988 Indian Point Energy Center2-5KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1A rapidly escalating accident scenario assumes that the general population willevacuate over the same time frame as do the school children, the transit-dependent population, and the special facility population. This assumptiongenerally leads to longer evacuation time estimates than those for accidents thatare more slowly escalating.

10. It is assumed that everyone within the group of ERPAs forming a Region that isissued an Advisory to Evacuate will, in fact, respond in general accord with the

planned routes.

11. It is further assumed that:

a. No early dismissal to home of school children is contemplated.

b. Parents with access to vehicles will pick up their children from school (ifin session), as well as those of neighbors and friends who do not haveaccess to vehicles, to the aggregate extent of at least half of all schoolchildren.c. A portion of those households with access to a vehicle will evacuatewithout awaiting the arrival home of all commuters. Data from thetelephone survey indicate that approximately 40 percent of householdswith commuters, who have other vehicles available for evacuation, willnot wait for the commuter to arrive home before leaving the area.

12. A portion of the population outside the evacuated Region will elect to evacuateeven though not advised to do so ("shadow effect"). This portion is assumed to be: a. 50 percent of the population residing within the radial distance (5 or 10miles) of the evacuated Region.

b. 35 percent of the population residing beyond this radial distance, butwithin the EPZ.

c. 30 percent of the population residing outside the EPZ but within the fourbounding Interstate Highways.Assumptions a. and b. are bounded by the limiting case of an evacuation of theentire EPZ simultaneously. Assumption c. is tested by varying the percentage of voluntary evacuees and determining the associated change in ETE value. SeeAppendix I.

13. Selected special facilities in Rockland County and Westchester County willshelter rather than evacuate. No such facilities are identified in Orange or Putnam.

Indian Point Energy Center2-6KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1 14. The ETE will also include consideration of "through" (External-External) tripsduring the time that such traffic is permitted to enter the evacuated Region.

"Normal" traffic flow is assumed to be present within the EPZ at the start of the emergency.

15. Access Control Points (ACP) will be staffed within approximately 1 - 2 hour2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />sfollowing the siren notifications, to divert traffic attempting to enter the EPZ.

Earlier activation of ACP locations would delay returning commuters. It is assumed that no vehicles will enter the EPZ after this 1 - 2 hour2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> time period.

16. Traffic Control Points (TCP) within the EPZ will be staffed over time, beginningat the Advisory to Evacuate. Their number and location will depend on the Region to be evacuated and resources available. It is assumed that drivers will act rationally, travel in the directions identified in the plan, and obey all control devices and traffic guides.

17. Traffic Control Points (TCP) outside the EPZ will be established to facilitateevacuation flow through the "shadow evacuation" area.

18. Buses will be used to transport those without access to private vehicles:

a. If schools are in session, transport (buses) will evacuate students notpreviously picked up by their families, directly to the assigned school reception centers. It is assumed that half the children will be picked up byparents, neighbors or friends of the family prior to the arrival of buses.We also identify the number of buses required if all children are evacuatedby bus.b. Buses needed to evacuate special facilities are estimated based on needand on "in-house" vehicle availability.

c. School children, if in session, will be given priority.

d. Bus mobilization time will be considered in ETE calculations.

e. Analysis of the number of required "waves" of transit-based evacuation, ispresented.

19. The transit-dependent portion of the general population will be evacuated toreception centers by bus. It is reasonable to assume that a proportion of this population will ride-share with family, neighbors, and friends, thus reducing thedemand for buses. We assume that the percentage of people who rideshare is 50percent. This assumption is based upon reported experience in other emergencysituations, 4 which cites previous evacuation experience.

4 Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, THE MISSISSAUGA EVACUATION FINALREPORT, June 1981. The report indicates that 6,600 people of a transit-dependent population of 8,600 people shared rides with other residents; a ride share rate of 76% (Page 5-10).

Indian Point Energy Center2-7KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1 20. Current plans indicate that the rail lines through the EPZ make the decision to haltservice. The decision is based upon recommendations from the WestchesterCounty Executive in consultation with the other counties and the state. It isreasonable to assume that rail service would continue until about 90 minutes afterthe order to evacuate is issued. In this way, reverse commuters and residents seeking to return home have an opportunity to complete their trips before serviceis suspended. Evacuation buses should be routed through the train stations totransport people who have congregated there. The public should be informed thatevacuation buses would stop at the train stations as part of the EAS messaging oremergency information bulletins. This strategy may be modified in the event that a radiological release affects the rail lines.

21. Two types of adverse weather scenarios are considered. Rain may occur for eitherwinter or summer scenarios. In the case of rain, it is assumed that the rain begins at about the same time as the evacuation advisory is issued. Thus transientpopulations are not affected. That is, no weather-related reduction in the numberof transients who may be present in the EPZ is assumed.Snow may occur in winter scenarios. Transient population reductions are notassumed for snow scenarios. Further, it is assumed that roads are passable andthat the appropriate agencies are plowing the roads as they would normally.Adverse weather scenarios affect roadway capacity, free flow highway speeds andthe time required to mobilize the general population. The factors assumed for theETE study are:ScenarioHighwayCapacity*Free FlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeRain90%90%No EffectSnow80%80%Clear driveway before leavinghome (Source: Telephone survey)* Adverse weather capacity and speed values are given as a percentage of good weather conditions

22. School buses used to transport the transit-dependent general population andstudents are assumed to load below capacity to reflect some inefficiency in loading. The assumed load factors vary and are detailed in Section 8. Children below the age of Middle School are assumed to occupy 2/3 of an adult seat.

23. County-specific assumptions are listed in Table 2-1.

Indian Point Energy Center2-8KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 2-1. County-Specific List of AssumptionsIssueOrange CountyPutnam CountyRockland CountyWestchesterCounty SpecialFacilityEvacuation Number of wavesdependent on transitresources identified No shelter-onlyspecial facilities Number of wavesdependent on transitresources identified No shelter-onlyspecial facilities Number of waveswill be determinedbased on transit resources identified: 75 percent of busesare assumed to be available for schoolevacuations School buses willseat 3 small children per 2-seats (elementary schools) School buses willseat 1 person per seat (middle and high schools) Special Facilitiesthat shelter -Riverside NursingHome (Haverstraw)

Green Hills Nursing Home (Haverstraw)

County Correctional Facility (New City)Yeager HealthComplex (Pomona)

Helen Hays Hospital (Haverstraw) Number ofwaves will bedetermined based on transit resources identified SpecialFacilities that shelter - VA

Hospital, Montrose;Sing SingPrison, OssiningTelephoneSurveyResults County Data used toestimate vehicleusage Trip Generationdistributions utilize full database County Data used toestimate vehicleusage Trip Generationdistributions utilize full database County Data used toestimate vehicleusage Trip Generationdistributions utilize full database County Dataused toestimate vehicle usage TripGeneration distributionsutilize fulldatabaseRide-sharing Transit requirementswill assume 50 percent ridesharing. Buses transportingtransients to stateparks are assumed to stay at the park and transport those people out of the EPZ Transit requirementswill assume 50 percent ridesharing. All buses areavailable Transit requirementswill assume 50 percent ridesharing. Buses transportingtransients to stateparks are assumed to stay at the park and transport those people out of the EPZ. Transitrequirements will assume 50 percentridesharingSeasonal Arden Valley Road None None Route 9A Indian Point Energy Center2-9KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1IssueOrange CountyPutnam CountyRockland CountyWestchesterCountyRoadClosures Tiorati Brook Road Cedar Pond Road Seven LakesParkway between Route 9W/202 and PIP Lake Welch Parkwaybetween PIP andSeven Lakes Parkway. Storm King Road(Rt. 218) (Periodicclosures due to snow,flooding, and rock slides)between Route9 and HawkesRoad will have its capacity reduced by 50 percent under adverseweatherconditions Special Events USMA football USMA graduation None None NoneStatisticsHousehold size = 2.84Evac. Veh = 1.26Veh Occup. = 2.24Household size = 3.10Evac Vehs = 1.27Veh Occup = 2.44Household size = 3.36Evac Vehs = 1.25Veh Occup = 2.68Household size =

2.84Evac Vehs = 1.24Veh Occup = 2.28Household size is the average number of persons in a household. Evac. Vehs. is the average number of evacuating vehicles per household.Veh. Occup. Is the average of persons occupying an evacuating vehicle. This is a derivedstatistic, obtained as Household SizeEvac. Veh.