ML032510773

Indian Point Energy Center Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Introduction

ML032510773
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	05/31/2003
From:	KLD Associates
To:	Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME
References
NL-03-139 KLD TR-369
Download: ML032510773 (13)

Text

Indian Point Energy Center1-1KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 11.INTRODUCTIONThis report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to update theexisting Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC), located in Buchanan, New York. Evacuation time estimates provide State and local governments with site-specific information helpful for Protective Action decision-making.In the performance of this effort, all available prior documentation relevant to Evacuation TimeEstimates was reviewed. Other guidance is provided by documents published by Federal Government agencies. Most important of these are: Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency ResponsePlans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG 0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, November 1980. Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency PlanningZones, NUREG/CR-1745, November 1980. State of the Art in Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR-4831, March 1992.We wish to express our appreciation to all the directors and staff members of the Orange,Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester County Emergency Management Offices, the various county planning offices, New York State Emergency Management Office (SEMO), and local and state law enforcement agencies, who provided valued guidance and contributed information contained in this report.1.1Overview of the ETE Update ProcessThe following outline presents a brief description of the work effort in chronological sequence:

1. Information Gathering: Attended initial meetings with representatives of Entergy Nuclear Northeast (ENN) to define the scope of work. Reviewed existing reports describing past evacuation studies. Attended meetings with each of the 4 counties that comprise the IndianPoint Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) to identify issues to be addressed

and resources available. Conducted a field survey of the EPZ highway system and of area traffic conditions.

Indian Point Energy Center1-2KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1 Attended meetings and briefings with state and county officials. Obtained demographic data from New York State EmergencyManagement Office. Conducted a random sample telephone survey of EPZ residents. Conducted a data collection effort by mail and telephone to identify anddescribe schools, special facilities, major employers, transportation

providers, and other important sources of information.

2. Estimate distributions of Trip Generation times representing the time required byvarious population groups (permanent residents, employees, and transients) to prepare for the evacuation trip. These estimates are primarily based upon the random sample telephone survey performed as part of the data collection effort.

3. Define Evacuation Scenarios. These scenarios reflect the variation in demand,trip generation distribution and in highway capacities, associated with different seasons, day of week, time of day and weather conditions.

4. Define a traffic management strategy. Traffic control is applied at specifiedTraffic Control Posts (TCP) located within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ),

and at Access Control Posts (ACP) located outside the EPZ. Local and state

police personnel review all traffic control plans.

5. Define Evacuation Areas or Regions. The EPZ is partitioned into EmergencyResponse Planning Areas (ERPAs). These existing ERPA were accepted as the basis for the ETE analysis presented herein. "Regions" are groups of contiguous ERPAs for which ETE are calculated. The configurations of these Regions depend upon wind direction and the radial extent of the impacted area. Each Region, other than those that approximate circular areas, approximates a "key-hole section" within the EPZ as required by NUREG 0654.

6. Assign Reception Centers to each ERPA within the EPZ.

7. Estimate demand for transit services for persons at "Special Facilities" and for transit-dependent persons at home.

8. Prepare the input streams for the IDYNEV system. Estimated the traffic demand, based on the available information derivedfrom Census data, from prior studies, from data provided by county and state agencies and from the telephone survey. Applied the procedures specified in the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual(HCM) to the data acquired during the field survey, to estimate the capacity of all highway segments comprising the evacuation routes.

Indian Point Energy Center1-3KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1 Developed the link-node representation of the evacuation network, whichis used as the basis for the computer analysis that calculates the Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). The IDYNEV System, developed by KLD for FEMA, was used to perform these calculations. Calculated the evacuating traffic demands for each Region and for eachEvacuation Scenario. Represented the traffic management strategy. Specified the candidate destinations of evacuation travel consistent withoutbound movement relative to the location of IPEC. Prepared the input stream for the IDYNEV System. Executed the IDYNEV models to provide the initial estimates ofevacuation routing and Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for a single scenario.9. Generate a complete set of ETE for all specified Regions and EvacuationScenarios. In addition, two "special event" ETE were calculated.

10. Document ETE in formats responsive to NUREG 0654.

11. Calculate the ETE for all transit activities including those for special facilities (schools, health-related facilities, etc.) and for the transit-dependent.Steps 4 through 9 are iterated as described in Appendix D.1.2 The Indian Point Energy Center Site LocationThe Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) is located on the eastern shore of the Hudson River, inWestchester County, New York. The site is situated approximately 24 miles north of New York City at longitude 73 o 57' W and latitude 41 o 16'N.The Emergency Planning Zone contains parts of four New York State counties: Orange, Putnam,Rockland, and Westchester. Figure 1-1 displays the area surrounding the Indian Point Energy Center. This map identifies the communities in the area and the major roads.

Indian Point Energy Center1-4KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Figure 1-1. Indian Point EnergyCenter Site LocationIPEC Indian Point Energy Center1-5KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 11.3 Preliminary ActivitiesSince this plan constitutes an update of an existing document, it was necessary to review the priorprocess and findings. These activities are described below.Literature ReviewKLD Associates was provided with copies of documents describing past studies and analysesleading to the development of emergency plans and of the IPEC ETE. We also obtained supporting documents from a variety of sources, which contained information needed to form the database used for conducting evacuation analyses.Field Surveys of the Highway NetworkKLD personnel drove the entire highway system within the EPZ and for some distance outside tothe bounding Interstate Highways: I-87 on the west; I-87/287 on the south; I-684 on the east; and I-84 on the north. The characteristics of each section of highway were recorded. These characteristics include: Number of lanes Posted speed Pavement Width Actual free speed Shoulder type & width Abutting land use Intersection configuration Control devices Lane channelization Interchange geometries Geometrics: Curves, grades Unusual characteristics: Narrow bridges, sharp curves, poorpavement, flood warning signs, inadequate delineations, etc.The data were then transcribed; this information was referenced while preparing the input streamfor the IDYNEV System. In addition, sketches were made at key highway locations.

Telephone SurveyA telephone survey was undertaken to gather information needed for the evacuation study. Appendix F presents the survey instrument, the procedures used and tabulations of data compiled from the survey returns.These data were utilized to develop estimates of vehicle occupancy during an evacuation and toestimate elements of the mobilization process. This database was also referenced to estimate the

number of transit-dependent residents.

Indian Point Energy Center1-6KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Developing the Evacuation Time EstimatesThe overall study procedure is outlined in Appendix D. Demographic data were obtained fromseveral sources, as detailed later in this report. These data were analyzed and converted into

vehicle demand data.Highway capacity was estimated for each highway segment based on the field surveys and on theprinciples specified in the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 1). The link-noderepresentation of the physical highway network was developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping software and the observations obtained from the field survey. This network representation of "links" and "nodes" is shown in Figure 1-2.Analytical ToolsThe IDYNEV System that was employed for this study is comprised of several integratedcomputer models. One of these is the PCDYNEV (DYnamic Network EVacuation) macroscopic simulation model that was developed by KLD under contract with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and subsequently migrated from a VAX mini-computer to the PC

world.PCDYNEV consists of three submodels: A macroscopic traffic simulation model (for details, see Appendix C). An intersection capacity model (for details, see Highway Research Record No.772, Transportation Research Board, 1980, papers by Lieberman and McShane &

Lieberman). A dynamic, node-centric routing model that adjusts the "base" routing in the eventof an imbalance in the levels of congestion on the outbound links.Another model of the IDYNEV System is the TRAD (Traffic Assignment and Distribution)model. This model integrates an equilibrium assignment model with a trip distribution algorithm to compute origin-destination volumes and paths of travel designed to minimize travel time. For details, see Appendix B.Still another software product developed by KLD, named UNITES (UNIfied T ransportationEngineering System) was used to expedite data entry.The procedure for applying the IDYNEV System within the framework of developing an updateto an ETE is outlined in Appendix D. Appendix A is a glossary of terms used in Traffic Engineering.

1 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM2000), Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, 2000.

Indian Point Energy Center1-7KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Figure 1-2. Indian Point Energy CenterLink-Node Network Indian Point Energy Center1-8KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1The evacuation analysis procedures are based upon the need to: Route traffic along paths of travel that will expedite their travel from their respective points of origin to points outsidethe EPZ Restrict movement toward IPEC, to the extent practicable disperse traffic demand so as to avoid focusing demand on a limitednumber of highways Move traffic in directions that are generally outbound, relative to the location ofIPEC.A set of candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ is specified for each trafficorigin (or centroid) within the EPZ. The TRAD model produces output that identifies the "best" traffic routing, subject to the design conditions outlined above. In addition to this information, rough estimates of travel time are provided, together with turn-movement data required by the PCDYNEV simulation model.The simulation model is then executed to provide a detailed description of traffic operations onthe evacuation network. This description enables the analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop countermeasures that are designed to expedite the movement of vehicles.As outlined in Appendix D, this procedure consists of an iterative design-analysis-redesignsequence of activities. If properly done, this procedure converges to yield an emergency plan which best services the evacuating public.1.4Comparison with Prior ETE StudyTable 1-1 presents a comparison of the present ETE study with the study produced in 1994. Themajor factors contributing to the differences between the ETE values obtained in this study and those of the previous study can be summarized as follows: An increase of approximately 10 percent in resident population, based on Census data. An increase in the number of evacuating vehicles per household of approximately25 percent based on the results of the telephone survey. An increase of approximately 300 percent in the estimated number of employeescommuting to the EPZ based on NYS trip-to-work data and employment statistics. Explicit consideration of the impact of Shadow Region traffic movement onevacuation time.

Indian Point Energy Center1-9KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 1-1. ETE Study ComparisonsTreatment TopicPrevious ETE StudyCurrent ETE Study ResidentPopulation Basis 1990 Census2000 Census, extrapolated to 2003.Approximately 10 percent higher.

Resident Population

Vehicle Occupancy Assumed 1.0 vehicle per household.Based on residential telephone survey,County specific range from 1.24 to

1.27 vehicles per household.Employee PopulationCombined with transients. Based ontelephone survey of employers with more than 50 employees. No

distinction was made between employees who live and work in the EPZ and employees who enter the EPZ to work. Double counting of resident employees.

Treated as a separate populationgroup. Employment journey to work

data identified the proportion of employees who commute into the EPZ relative to the total number of employees. These proportions were applied on an ERPA by ERPA basis to total employment information for the year 2000 from NYS Dept. of Labor.Employee Vehicle OccupancyAssumed 1.1 vehicles per employee[sic]. Should have read 1.1 employees per vehicle.County specific values ranging from1.05 to 1.07 employees per vehicle.

Data obtained from 2000 Census.Transient PopulationBased on telephone calls to individualfacilities.Based on telephone calls to individualfacilities.

Voluntary evacuation from within EPZ in

areas outside region to be evacuatedNo treatment identified.

50 percent within circle. 35 percent inannular ring between the circle and EPZ boundary.

Shadow EvacuationNot considered.

Population in areas between the EPZboundary and the bounding interstate highways was considered. Nominally, 30 percent of this population will move away from the EPZ.

Indian Point Energy Center1-10KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 1-1. ETE Study ComparisonsTreatment TopicPrevious ETE StudyCurrent ETE StudyRoadwayGeometric DataField surveys conducted in 1993.

Road capacities based on 1985 HCM.Field surveys conducted in 2002.

Road capacities based on 2000 HCM.Network Size598 Links; 398 Nodes.2,132 Links; 1031 Nodes.

Transit Dependent Population Defined as non-auto owningpopulation by ERPA.

Defined as households with 0 vehicles

+ households with 1 and 2 vehicles

with commuters who do not return home. Household size varies by county and number of vehicles in

household.

School EvacuationEither early dismissal or directevacuation.Direct evacuation.

Ridesharing50 percent except in Ossining andPeekskill where 0 percent ridesharing is assumed.50 percent everywhere. Autoownership in Ossining and Peekskill is consistent with rest of EPZ based on

DMV data.Special Events USMA football weekend andgraduation.

USMA football weekend.USMA midweek commencementceremony.Bus AvailabilityBased on inventory of resources.Based on inventory of resources.TrainsNot considered for ETE purposes.

Not considered for ETE purposes.

However, recommendation to continue

train service for about 1.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> after evacuation begins to help transport commuters.Boats, AirportsCoast Guard alerts boaters who leavearea in boats.

Airports not considered for ETE purposes.Coast Guard alerts boaters who leavearea in boats.

Airports not considered for ETE purposes.

Indian Point Energy Center1-11KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 1-1. ETE Study ComparisonsTreatment TopicPrevious ETE StudyCurrent ETE StudyTrip Generationfor Evacuation Residents assumed to take between 30 and 150 minutes.Transients and employees assumed to take between 30 and 60 minutes.Based on residential telephone surveyof specific pre-trip mobilization activities:Residents with commuters returning leave between 30 and 240 minutes.

Residents without commutersreturning leave between 15 and 150

minutes.Employees and transients leave between 15 and 90 minutes.All times measured from the Advisory to Evacuate for all above.Additional time to clear snow added toresidential evacuation times for snow scenarios.Traffic and

Access Control 29 Traffic control points identified.Traffic management requirement

stated. No maps, no intersection schematics, nor manning requirements nor priority assignment are presented.Explicit treatment of over 150 trafficand access control locations. Each location is identified, mapped, and schematics prepared. Manning, equipment and priority assignments are defined for each location.WeatherClear or Adverse.Clear or Rain or Snow.ModelingNETVACIDYNEV System: TRAD andPCDYNEV.Evacuation Time Estimates Reporting Reported for 90 and 100 percentile population. Results presented by County, Region and ERPA.

Reported for 50, 90, 95, and 100 percentile population. Results presented by Region.

Indian Point Energy Center1-12KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 1-1. ETE Study ComparisonsTreatment TopicPrevious ETE StudyCurrent ETE StudyEvacuation TimeEstimates for the entire EPZ.Winter midweek middaygood weather = 5:30 Summer weekend middaygood weather = 5:40Winter midweek middaygood weather = 9:25 Summer weekend middaygood weather = 9:25