ML032510813
| ML032510813 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 05/31/2003 |
| From: | KLD Associates |
| To: | Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME |
| References | |
| NL-03-139 KLD TR-369 | |
| Download: ML032510813 (7) | |
Text
Indian Point Energy Center i
KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Title Page EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
....................................................................................ES-1 1.
INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Overview of ETE Update Process............................................................................ 1-1 1.2 The Indian Point Energy Center Site Location........................................................ 1-3 1.3 Preliminary Activities............................................................................................... 1-5 1.4 Comparison with Prior ETE Study........................................................................... 1-8 2.
STUDY ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONS...................................................... 2-1 2.1 Data Estimates.......................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Study Methodological Assumptions........................................................................ 2-2 2.3 Study Assumptions................................................................................................... 2-4 3.
DEMAND ESTIMATION....................................................................................... 3-1 4.
ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY......................................................... 4-1 5.
ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME.................................................... 5-1 6.
DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS........................6-1 7.
GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)............ 7-1 7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation...................................................7-1 7.2 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation................................................... 7-2 7.3 Evacuation Rates....................................................................................................... 7-3 7.4 EPZ Clearance Times............................................................................................... 7-4 8.
TRANSIT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES.... 8-1 8.1 Transit-Dependent People-Demand Estimate.......................................................... 8-2 8.2 School Population-Transit Demand......................................................................... 8-3 8.3 Special Facility Demand........................................................................................... 8-4 8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit-Dependent People..................................... 8-5 9.
TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY..........................................................9-1 10.
EVACUATION ROUTES..................................................................................... 10-1 11.
SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS...................................... 11-1 12.
CONFIRMATION TIME....................................................................................... 12-1
Indian Point Energy Center ii KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix A.................... Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Appendix B.................... Traffic Assignment Model Appendix C.................... Traffic Simulation Model: PCDYNEV Appendix D.................... Detailed Description of Study Procedure Appendix E.................... Special Facility Data Appendix F.................... Telephone Survey Appendix G.................... Traffic Management Plan Schematics Appendix H.................... Evacuation Region Maps Appendix I..................... Evacuation Sensitivity Studies Appendix J..................... Evacuation Time Estimates For All Evacuation Regions and Scenarios and Evacuation Time Graphs for Regions R3, For All Scenarios Appendix K................... Evacuation Roadway Network Characteristics Appendix L.................ERPA Boundaries Appendix M................Acknowledgements
Indian Point Energy Center iii KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 LIST OF FIGURES Number Title Page 1-1 Indian Point Energy Center Site Location------------------------------------------------1-4 1-2 Indian Point Energy Center Link-Node Network ---------------------------------------1-7 2-1 Shadow Evacuation Methodology---------------------------------------------------------2-3 3-1 Indian Point Energy Center EPZ ERPAs-------------------------------------------------3-3 3-2 Permanent Resident Population By Sector-----------------------------------------------3-7 3-3 Permanent Resident Vehicles By Sector--------------------------------------------------3-8 3-4 Transient Population By Sector---------------------------------------------------------- 3-13 3-5 Transient Vehicles By Sector------------------------------------------------------------- 3-14 3-6 Employee Population by Sector---------------------------------------------------------- 3-17 3-7 Employee Vehicles by Sector ------------------------------------------------------------ 3-18 4-1 Fundamental Relationship Between Volume and Density-----------------------------4-3 5-1 Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip ----------------------------------5-4 5-2 Mobilization Activity Time Distributions------------------------------------------------5-9 5-3 Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions ----------------------------------------- 5-12 6-1 Indian Point Energy Center EPZ ERPAs-------------------------------------------------6-4 7-1 Assumed Voluntary Evacuation Response -------------------------------------------- 7-19 7-2 Shadow Region----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7-20 7-3 Areas of Traffic Congestion, 30 Minutes after the Evacuation Recommendation--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7-21 7-4 Areas of Traffic Congestion 1 Hour after the Evacuation Recommendation--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7-22 7-5 Areas of Traffic Congestion 3 Hours after the Evacuation Recommendation--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7-23 7-6 Area of Traffic Congestion 7 Hours after the Evacuation Recommendation--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7-24 7-7 Evacuation Time Estimates for IPEC, Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Evacuation of Region 3 (Entire EPZ) -------------------- 7-25 8-1 Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations----------------------------------------- 8-11
Indian Point Energy Center iv KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 LIST OF FIGURES Number Title Page 10-1 General Population Reception Centers ------------------------------------------------- 10-2 10-2 Evacuation Routes - Orange County---------------------------------------------------- 10-3 10-3 Evacuation Routes - Putnam County --------------------------------------------------- 10-4 10-4 Evacuation Routes - Rockland County------------------------------------------------- 10-5 10-5 Evacuation Routes - Westchester County---------------------------------------------- 10-6
Indian Point Energy Center v
KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 LIST OF TABLES Number Title Page 1-1 ETE Study Comparisons--------------------------------------------------------------------1-9 2-1 County-Specific List of Assumptions-----------------------------------------------------2-8 3-1 Vehicle Occupancy Rates-------------------------------------------------------------------3-2 3-2 EPZ Permanent Resident Population Growth -------------------------------------------3-4 3-3 Permanent Resident Population and Vehicles by ERPA-------------------------------3-6 3-4 Transient Population by ERPA ---------------------------------------------------------- 3-11 3-5 Transient Vehicles by ERPA------------------------------------------------------------- 3-12 3-6 Non-EPZ Resident Employee Population by ERPA---------------------------------- 3-16 5-1 Trip Generation Time Histograms for Midweek and Weekend Scenarios ------- 5-13 6-1 Definition of Evacuation Regions ---------------------------------------------------------6-2 6-2 Evacuation Scenario Definitions-----------------------------------------------------------6-5 6-3 Percent of Population Groups for Various Scenarios-----------------------------------6-6 6-4 Population and Vehicle Estimates for Various Combinations of Regions and Scenarios-----------------------------------------------------------------6-7 7-1A Time to Clear The Indicated Area of 50 Percent of the Affected Population-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------7-7 7-1B Time To Clear The Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------7-9 7-1C Time to Clear The Indicated Area of 95 Percent of the Affected Population----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7-11 7-1D Time to Clear The Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7-13 7-1E Time to Clear The EPZ Boundary of 100 Percent of the Affected Population----7-15 7-2 Definition of Evacuation Regions-----------------------------------------------------7-17 8-1 Comparison of Vehicle Availability----------------------------------------------------- 8-12 8-2 Transit Population Estimates------------------------------------------------------------- 8-13
Indian Point Energy Center vi KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 8-3 School Population Demand Estimates-------------------------------------------------- 8-14 8-4 School Reception Centers----------------------------------------------------------------- 8-19 8-5 Special Facility Transit Demand--------------------------------------------------------- 8-21 8-6 Indian Point EPZ Transportation Resources ------------------------------------------- 8-28 8-7 Demand and Supply of Bus Resources ------------------------------------------------- 8-30 8-8 Mean Evacuation Speeds Region R3---------------------------------------------------- 8-30 8-9 School Evacuation Time Estimates ----------------------------------------------------- 8-31 8-10 Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates --------------------------------------- 8-31 8-11 Ambulatory Evacuees From Special Facilities Evacuation Time Estimates-------8-31 8-12 Ambulance and Ambulette Resources -------------------------------------------------- 8-32 12-1 Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation -------------------------------------------------------------- 12-2