ML032510793
| ML032510793 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 05/31/2003 |
| From: | KLD Associates |
| To: | Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME |
| References | |
| NL-03-139 KLD TR-369 | |
| Download: ML032510793 (9) | |
Text
Indian Point Energy Center 6-1 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 6.
DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation case defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario.
The definitions of Region and Scenario are as follows:
Region A grouping of contiguous evacuation ERPAs, that forms either a keyhole sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.
Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions. Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.
A total of 35 Regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of ERPAs considered.
These Regions are defined in Table 6-1. The ERPA configurations are identified in Figure 6-1.
Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC), and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees. These sectors extend to a distance of 5 miles from IPEC (Regions R4 to R19), or 10 miles (Regions R20 to R35). The azimuth of the center sector defines the orientation of these Regions.
A total of 14 Scenarios were evaluated for all Regions. Thus, there are a total of 14x35=490 evacuation cases. Table 6-2 is a description of all Scenarios.
Each combination of region and scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated. Table 6-3 presents the percentage of each population group assumed to evacuate for each scenario.
Table 6-4 presents the population and vehicle counts for each scenario.
Indian Point Energy Center 6-2 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 6-1. Definition of Evacuation Regions REGION ERPAs IN ORANGE COUNTY ERPAs IN PUTNAM COUNTY ERPAs IN ROCKLAND COUNTY ERPAs IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY DESCRIPTION OF REGION ERPAs IN REGION R1 39 NONE 29, 38, 39 1-4, 7, 44 Entire 2 mile ring 1-4, 7, 29, 38, 39, 44 R2 26, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-31, 38-40 1-9, 43, 44, 47-49 Entire 5 mile ring 1-9, 16, 18, 24, 26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49 R3 24-28, 39, 40 16-20, 23, 45, 46 29-41 1-15, 21, 22, 42-44, 47-51 Full EPZ 1-51 2 Mile Ring and Sector to 5 Miles R4 26, 39, 45 16, 18, 45 29, 38, 39 1-4, 7, 8, 44 N
1-4, 7, 8, 16, 18, 26, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R5 39, 45 16, 18, 45 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 1-4, 7-9, 44, 45 NNE 1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R6 39 16, 18 29, 38, 39, 44 1-4, 7-9, 44, 49 NE 1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 R7 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 44 1-4, 7-9, 44, 49 ENE 1-4, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 R8 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 44 1-5, 7-9, 44, 48, 49 E
1-5, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 48, 49 R9 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 44 1-7, 9, 44, 47-49 ESE 1-7, 9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 47-49 R10 39 NONE 29, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-7, 43, 44, 47-49 SE 1-7, 29, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49 R11 39 NONE 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-7, 43, 44, 47-49 SSE 1-7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49 R12 39 NONE 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-4, 6, 7, 43, 44, 47, 48 S
1-4, 6, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47, 48 R13 39 NONE 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 1-4, 7, 43, 44 SSW 1-4, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44 R14 39, 40 NONE 29-31, 38-40, 43, 44 1-4, 7, 43, 44 SW 1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 43, 44 R15 39, 40 NONE 29-31, 38-40, 44 1-4, 7, 44 WSW 1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 44 R16 39, 40 NONE 29, 30, 38-40, 44 1-4, 7, 44 W
1-4, 7, 29, 30, 38-40, 44 R17 24, 26, 39, 40, 45 45 29, 30, 38-40, 44, 45 1-4, 7, 44, 45 WNW 1-4, 7, 24, 26, 29, 30, 38-40, 44, 45 R18 24, 26, 39, 40, 45 16, 45 29, 38-40, 44, 45 1-4, 7, 44, 45 NW 1-4, 7, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38-40, 44, 45 R19 24, 26, 39, 40, 45 16, 45 29, 38, 39, 40, 44, 45 1-4, 7, 8, 44, 45 NNW 1-4, 7, 8, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38, 39, 40, 44, 45
Indian Point Energy Center 6-3 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 6-1. Definition of Evacuation Regions (Concluded)
REGION ERPAs IN ORANGE COUNTY ERPAs IN PUTNAM COUNTY ERPAs IN ROCKLAND COUNTY ERPAs IN WESTCHESTER COUNTY DESCRIPTION OF REGION ERPAs IN REGION 5 Mile Ring and Sector to EPZ Boundary R20 24-26, 39, 40 16-19, 23, 45, 46 29-31, 38-40 1-9, 43, 44, 47-49 N
1-9, 16-19, 23-26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-49 R21 24, 26, 39, 40 16-20, 23, 45, 46 29-31, 38-40 1-10, 43, 44, 47-49 NNE 1-10, 16-20, 23, 24, 26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-49 R22 24,26, 39, 40 16-20, 45 29-31, 38-40 1-14, 43, 44, 47-49 NE 1-14, 16-20, 24,26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49 R23 24,26, 39, 40 16, 18, 19, 20, 45 29-31, 38-40 1-15, 43, 44, 47-49 ENE 1-16, 18-20, 24,26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49 R24 24,26, 39, 40 16, 18, 20, 45 29-31, 38-40 1-15, 21, 43, 44, 47-50 E
1-16, 18, 20, 21, 24,26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-50 R25 24,26, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-31, 38-40 1-9, 11-15, 21, 22, 43, 44, 47-51 ESE 1-9, 11-16, 18, 21, 22, 24,26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-51 R26 24,26, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-32, 38-40 1-9, 12, 13, 21, 22, 42-44, 47-51 SE 1-9, 12-13, 16, 18, 21-22, 24,26, 29-32, 38-40, 42-45, 47-51 R27 24,26, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-35, 38-40 1-9, 12, 21, 22, 42-44, 47-51 SSE 1-9, 12, 16, 18, 21, 22, 24,26, 29-35, 38-40, 42-45, 47-51 R28 24,26, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-40 1-9, 22, 42-44, 47-49, 51 S
1-9, 16, 18, 22, 24,26, 29-40, 42-45, 47-49, 51 R29 24,26, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-41 1-9, 42-44, 47-49 SSW 1-9, 16, 18, 24,26, 29-45, 47-49 R30 24,26, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-31, 34-41 1-9, 43, 44, 47-49 SW 1-9, 16, 18, 24,26, 29-31, 34-41, 43-45, 47-49 R31 24,26, 28, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-31, 34, 36-41 1-9, 43, 44, 47-49 WSW 1-9, 16, 18, 24,26, 28-31, 34, 36-41, 43-45, 47-49 R32 24, 26-28, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-31, 38-41 1-9, 43, 44, 47-49 W
1-9, 16, 18, 24, 26-31, 38-41, 43-45, 47-49 R33 24-28, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-31, 38-40 1-9, 43, 44, 47-49 WNW 1-9, 16, 18, 24-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49 R34 24-28, 39, 40 16, 18, 45 29-31, 38-40 1-9, 43, 44, 47-49 NW 1-9, 16, 18, 24-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49 R35 24-27, 39, 40 16-18, 23, 45, 46 29-31, 38-40 1-9, 43, 44, 47-49 NNW 1-9, 16-18, 23-27, 29-31, 38-40, 43-49
Indian Point Energy Center 6-4 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Figure 6-1. Indian Point Energy Center EPZ ERPAs
Indian Point Energy Center 6-5 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scenario Season Day of Week Time of Day Weather Special 1
Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2
Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3
Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4
Summer Weekend Midday Rain None 5
Summer
- Midweek, Weekend Evening Good None 6
Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7
Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8
Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9
Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None 12 Winter
- Midweek, Weekend Evening Good None 13 Autumn Weekend Midday Good West Point Football 14 Spring Midweek Midday Good West Point Graduation Note:
Schools are assumed to be in session for the Winter, Autumn and Spring seasons (midweek, midday).
Indian Point Energy Center 6-6 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups for Various Scenarios Scenarios Residents With Commuters in Household Residents With No Commuters in Household Employees Transients Shadow Special Events School Buses Transit Buses External Through Traffic 1
100%
100%
96%
50%
46%
0%
100%
100%
100%
2 100%
100%
96%
50%
46%
0%
100%
100%
100%
3 10%
235%
47%
100%
38%
0%
100%
100%
100%
4 10%
235%
47%
100%
38%
0%
100%
100%
100%
5 10%
235%
10%
40%
32%
0%
100%
100%
60%
6 100%
100%
100%
32%
47%
0%
100%
100%
100%
7 100%
100%
100%
23%
47%
0%
100%
100%
100%
8 100%
100%
100%
12%
47%
0%
100%
100%
100%
9 10%
235%
47%
40%
38%
0%
30%
100%
100%
10 10%
235%
47%
28%
38%
0%
30%
100%
100%
11 10%
235%
47%
14%
38%
0%
30%
100%
100%
12 10%
235%
10%
20%
32%
0%
0%
100%
60%
13 10%
235%
47%
40%
38%
100%
30%
100%
100%
14 10%
235%
47%
40%
38%
25%
30%
100%
100%
Residents With Commuters in Household......... Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.
Residents With No Commuters in Household... Households of EPZ residents who do not have or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.
Employees............................................................. EPZ employees who live outside of the EPZ.
Transients............................................................. People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.
Shadow................................................................. Residents and employees in the shadow region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation. The basis for the values shown is a 30% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees. The percentage of shadow employees is computed using the scenario-specific ratio of EPZ employees to residents.
Special Events...................................................... Additional vehicles in the West Point area associated with a football weekend or a commencement ceremony.
School and Transit Buses................................... Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and transit-dependent people.
External Through Traffic...................................... Traffic on local highways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation. This traffic is stopped by access control approximately 1-2 hours after the evacuation begins.
Indian Point Energy Center 6-7 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates for Various Combinations of Regions and Scenarios