ML032510793
| ML032510793 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 05/31/2003 |
| From: | KLD Associates |
| To: | Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME |
| References | |
| NL-03-139 KLD TR-369 | |
| Download: ML032510793 (9) | |
Text
Indian Point Energy Center6-1KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 16.DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOSAn evacuation "case" defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario. The definitions of "Region" and "Scenario" are as follows:Region A grouping of contiguous evacuation ERPAs, that forms either a "keyhole"sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, andweather conditions. Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.A total of 35 Regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of ERPAs considered. These Regions are defined in Table 6-1. The ERPA configurations are identified in Figure 6-1.
Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC), and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees. These sectors extend to a distance of 5 miles from IPEC (Regions R4 to R19), or 10 miles (Regions R20 to R35). The azimuth of the center sector defines the orientation of these Regions. A total of 14 Scenarios were evaluated for all Regions. Thus, there are a total of 14x35=490 evacuation cases. Table 6-2 is a description of all Scenarios.Each combination of region and scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated. Table6-3 presents the percentage of each population group assumed to evacuate for each scenario.
Table 6-4 presents the population and vehicle counts for each scenario.
Indian Point Energy Center6-2KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 6-1. Definition of Evacuation RegionsREGIONERPAs INORANGECOUNTYERPAs INPUTNAMCOUNTYERPAs INROCKLANDCOUNTYERPAs IN WESTCHESTERCOUNTYDESCRIPTION OFREGIONERPAs IN REGION R139NONE29, 38, 391-4, 7, 44Entire 2 mile ring1-4, 7, 29, 38, 39, 44 R226, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-31, 38-401-9, 43, 44, 47-49Entire 5 mile ring1-9, 16, 18, 24, 26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49 R324-28, 39, 4016-20, 23, 45, 4629-411-15, 21, 22, 42-44, 47-51Full EPZ1-51 2 Mile Ring and Sector to 5 Miles R426, 39, 4516, 18, 4529, 38, 391-4, 7, 8, 44N1-4, 7, 8, 16, 18, 26, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R539, 4516, 18, 4529, 38, 39, 44, 451-4, 7-9, 44, 45NNE1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 45 R63916, 1829, 38, 39, 441-4, 7-9, 44, 49NE1-4, 7-9, 16, 18, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 R739NONE29, 38, 39, 441-4, 7-9, 44, 49ENE1-4, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 49 R839NONE29, 38, 39, 441-5, 7-9, 44, 48, 49E1-5, 7-9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 48, 49 R939NONE29, 38, 39, 441-7, 9, 44,47-49ESE1-7, 9, 29, 38, 39, 44, 47-49R1039NONE29, 38, 39, 43, 441-7, 43, 44, 47-49SE1-7, 29, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49R1139NONE29-31, 38, 39, 43, 441-7, 43, 44,47-49SSE1-7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47-49R1239NONE29-31, 38, 39, 43, 441-4, 6, 7, 43, 44, 47, 48S1-4, 6, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44, 47, 48R1339NONE29-31, 38, 39, 43, 441-4, 7, 43, 44SSW1-4, 7, 29-31, 38, 39, 43, 44R1439, 40NONE29-31, 38-40, 43, 441-4, 7, 43, 44SW1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 43, 44R1539, 40NONE29-31, 38-40, 441-4, 7, 44WSW1-4, 7, 29-31, 38-40, 44R1639, 40NONE29, 30, 38-40, 441-4, 7, 44W1-4, 7, 29, 30, 38-40, 44R1724, 26, 39, 40, 454529, 30, 38-40, 44, 451-4, 7, 44, 45WNW1-4, 7, 24, 26, 29, 30, 38-40, 44, 45R1824, 26, 39, 40, 4516, 4529, 38-40, 44, 451-4, 7, 44, 45NW1-4, 7, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38-40, 44, 45R1924, 26, 39, 40, 4516, 4529, 38, 39, 40, 44, 451-4, 7, 8, 44, 45NNW1-4, 7, 8, 16, 24, 26, 29, 38, 39, 40, 44, 45 Indian Point Energy Center6-3KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 6-1. Definition of Evacuation Regions (Concluded)REGIONERPAs INORANGECOUNTYERPAs INPUTNAMCOUNTYERPAs INROCKLANDCOUNTYERPAs IN WESTCHESTERCOUNTYDESCRIPTIONOF REGIONERPAs IN REGION 5 Mile Ring and Sector to EPZ BoundaryR2024-26, 39, 4016-19, 23, 45, 4629-31, 38-401-9, 43, 44, 47-49N1-9, 16-19, 23-26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-49R2124, 26, 39, 4016-20, 23, 45, 4629-31, 38-401-10, 43, 44, 47-49NNE1-10, 16-20, 23, 24, 26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-49R2224,26, 39, 4016-20, 4529-31, 38-401-14, 43, 44, 47-49NE1-14, 16-20, 24,26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49R2324,26, 39, 4016, 18, 19, 20, 4529-31, 38-401-15, 43, 44, 47-49ENE1-16, 18-20, 24,26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49R2424,26, 39, 4016, 18, 20, 4529-31, 38-401-15, 21, 43, 44, 47-50E1-16, 18, 20, 21, 24,26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-50R2524,26, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-31, 38-401-9, 11-15, 21, 22, 43, 44,47-51ESE1-9, 11-16, 18, 21, 22, 24,26, 29-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-5 1R2624,26, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-32, 38-401-9, 12, 13, 21, 22, 42-44, 47-51SE1-9, 12-13, 16, 18, 21-22, 24,26, 29-32, 38-40, 42-45, 47
-51R2724,26, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-35, 38-401-9, 12, 21, 22, 42-44,47-51SSE1-9, 12, 16, 18, 21, 22, 24,26, 29-35, 38-40, 42-45, 47-51R2824,26, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-401-9, 22, 42-44, 47-49, 51S1-9, 16, 18, 22, 24,26, 29-40, 42-45, 47-49, 51R2924,26, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-411-9, 42-44,47-49SSW1-9, 16, 18, 24,26, 29-45, 47-49R3024,26, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-31, 34-411-9, 43, 44, 47-49SW1-9, 16, 18, 24,26, 29-31, 34-41, 43-45, 47-49R3124,26, 28, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-31, 34, 36-411-9, 43, 44,47-49WSW1-9, 16, 18, 24,26, 28-31, 34, 36-41, 43-45, 47-49R3224, 26-28, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-31, 38-411- 9, 43, 44, 47-49W1-9, 16, 18, 24, 26-31, 38-41, 43-45, 47-49R3324-28, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-31, 38-401-9, 43, 44, 47-49WNW1-9, 16, 18, 24-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49R3424-28, 39, 4016, 18, 4529-31, 38-401-9, 43, 44, 47-49NW1-9, 16, 18, 24-31, 38-40, 43-45, 47-49R3524-27, 39, 4016-18, 23, 45, 4629-31, 38-401-9, 43, 44, 47-49NNW1-9, 16-18, 23-27, 29-31, 38-40, 43-49 Indian Point Energy Center6-4KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1 Figure 6-1. IndianPoint Energy CenterEPZ ERPAs Indian Point Energy Center6-5KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario DefinitionsScenarioSeasonDay of WeekTime of DayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddaySnowNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddaySnowNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13AutumnWeekendMiddayGoodWest PointFootball14SpringMidweekMiddayGoodWest PointGraduationNote: Schools are assumed to be in session for the Winter, Autumn and Spring seasons (midweek, midday).
Indian Point Energy Center6-6KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups for Various ScenariosScenariosResidentsWithCommuters inHouseholdResidentsWith NoCommuters inHouseholdEmployeesTransientsShadowSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic1100%100%96%50%46%0%100%100%100%2100%100%96%50%46%0%100%100%100%310%235%47%100%38%0%100%100%100%410%235%47%100%38%0%100%100%100%510%235%10%40%32%0%100%100%60%6100%100%100%32%47%0%100%100%100%7100%100%100%23%47%0%100%100%100%8100%100%100%12%47%0%100%100%100%910%235%47%40%38%0%30%100%100%1010%235%47%28%38%0%30%100%100%1110%235%47%14%38%0%30%100%100%1210%235%10%20%32%0%0%100%60%1310%235%47%40%38%100%30%100%100%1410%235%47%40%38%25%30%100%100%
Residents With Commuters in Household
.........Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip
.Residents With No Commuters in Household
...Households of EPZ residents who do not have or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Employees.............................................................EPZ employees who live outside of the EPZ.Transients
.............................................................People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.
Shadow.................................................................Residents and employees in the shadow region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during theevacuation. The basis for the values shown is a 30% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage ofshadow employees. The percentage of shadow employees is computed using the scenario-specific ratio of EPZ employees
to residents.Special Events
......................................................Additional vehicles in the West Point area associated with a football weekend or a commencement ceremony.
School and Transit Buses
...................................Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and transit-dependent people.
External Through Traffic
......................................Traffic on local highways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation. This traffic is stopped by access controlapproximately 1-2 hours after the evacuation begins.
Indian Point Energy Center6-7KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates forVarious Combinations of Regions and Scenarios