ML032510775
| ML032510775 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 05/31/2003 |
| From: | KLD Associates |
| To: | Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME |
| References | |
| NL-03-139 KLD TR-369 | |
| Download: ML032510775 (23) | |
Text
Indian Point Energy Center 3-1 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 3.
DEMAND ESTIMATION The estimates of demand, expressed in terms of people and vehicles, constitute a critical element in developing an evacuation plan. This estimate consists of three components:
- 1.
An estimate of population within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), stratified into groups (resident, employee, transient).
- 2.
An estimate, for each population group, of mean occupancy per evacuating vehicle. This estimate is used to determine the number of evacuating vehicles.
- 3.
An estimate of potential double-counting of vehicles.
Appendix E presents much of the source material for the population estimates. A variation of the approach defined above was used to estimate traffic in parks. This change in approach was necessary since the majority of park traffic consists of transients; most enter the EPZ from locations outside. Our primary source of population data, the 2000 Census, is not adequate for estimating some transient groups directly.
As a result, we relied on empirical observation of the number of vehicles that can physically be accommodated within park areas. This technique is valid since discussions with public officials confirmed that, with few exceptions, people at the park have access to either a private vehicle or a bus. Thus, the number of people evacuating from the park area will be primarily reflected in the number of evacuating private vehicles.
Estimates of population in parks can be based on estimates of per-vehicle person occupancy.
Thus, for the park area, we estimate the number of evacuating vehicles based on parking capacity, then multiply by the per-vehicle person occupancy.
During the summer season, vacationers and tourists enter the EPZ. These non-residents may dwell within the EPZ for a short period (e.g. one or two weeks), for a weekend, overnight, or may enter and leave within one day. Estimates of the size of these population components must be obtained, so that the associated number of evacuating vehicles can be ascertained.
The potential for double-counting people and vehicles must be addressed. For example:
A resident who works and shops within the EPZ could be counted as a resident, again as an employee and once again as a shopper.
A visitor who stays at a hotel and spends time at a park, then goes shopping could be counted three times.
Furthermore, the number of vehicles at a location depends on time of day. For example, motel parking lots may be full at dawn and empty at noon. Similarly, parking lots at area parks, which are full at noon, may be almost empty at dawn. It is clearly wrong to estimate counts of vehicles by simply adding up the capacities of different types of parking facilities, without considering such factors.
Indian Point Energy Center 3-2 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Analysis of the population characteristics of the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) EPZ indicates the need to identify three distinct groups:
Permanent residents - people who are year round residents of the EPZ.
Transients - people who reside outside of the EPZ who enter the area for a specific purpose (shopping, recreation) and then leave the area.
Employees - people who reside outside of the EPZ and commute to business within the EPZ on a daily basis.
Estimates of the population and number of evacuating vehicles for each of the population groups will be presented for each Emergency Response Planning Area (ERPA) and by polar coordinate representation (population rose). The IPEC EPZ has been subdivided into 51 ERPAs. These areas are shown in Figure 3-1.
Permanent Residents The primary source for estimating permanent population is the latest U.S. Census data.
Comparing census information, it is possible to estimate the rate of population change over time and to project the year 2000 resident population to a 2003 base year. Table 3-2 presents these estimates.
Table 3-2 shows that the EPZ population has increased about 2.5 percent over the last 3 years.
The annual growth rate for each county was estimated using the 1990 and 2000 census results.
The growth rates were used to project population grown over the most recent 3-year period, We designed the telephone survey (Appendix F) to estimate the average number of people who may be expected to occupy each evacuating vehicle. The survey revealed the average household size and the expected number of evacuating vehicles per household. The results are shown on Table 3-1.
Table 3-1. Vehicle Occupancy Rates County Household Size Evacuating Vehicles Per Household1 Persons per Evacuating Vehicle Orange 2.84 1.26 2.24 Putnam 3.10 1.27 2.44 Rockland 3.36 1.25 2.68 Westchester 2.84 1.24 2.28 1 Compare the telephone survey results with Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, THE MISSISSAUGA EVACUATION FINAL REPORT, June 1981. The report indicates that 75,500 households evacuated the area using 93,400 vehicles, yielding 1.24 evacuating vehicles per household. (Page 5-10).
Indian Point Energy Center 3-3 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Figure 3-1. Indian Point Energy Center EPZ ERPAS
Indian Point Energy Center 3-4 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 3-2. EPZ Permanent Resident Population Growth Population Population ERPA 2000 2003 ERPA 2000 2003 1
2,171 2,206 27 2,200 2,270 2
22,459 22,826 28 52 54 3
1,273 1,294 29 1,143 1,170 4
3,534 3,592 30 12,968 13,271 5
957 973 31 31,314 33,267 6
7,589 7,713 32 4,973 5,089 7
185 188 33 10,616 10,864 8
11,156 11,338 34 7,428 7,602 9
4,486 4,559 35 23,681 24,235 10 8,021 8,152 36 2,601 2,662 11 18,086 18,382 37 23,220 23,763 12 3,102 3,153 38 60 61 13 7,124 7,240 39 19 20 14 2,688 2,732 40 561 579 15 1,284 1,305 41 174 178 16 532 553 42 17 1,927 2,005 43 18 3,533 3,675 44 19 6,851 7,127 45 20 4,110 4,275 46 21 4,785 4,863 47 332 337 22 29,454 29,936 48 3,483 3,540 23 2,523 2,625 49 2,820 2,866 24 7,134 7,360 50 471 479 25 932 962 51 8,277 8,412 26 5,353 5,523 TOTAL 297,642 305,276
Indian Point Energy Center 3-5 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Permanent resident population and vehicle estimates for 2003 are presented in Table 3-3.
Figures 3-2 and 3-3 present the permanent resident population and permanent resident vehicle estimates by sector and distance from the Indian Point Energy Center. This rose was constructed using GIS software.
It can be argued that this estimate of permanent residents overstates, somewhat, the number of evacuating vehicles, especially during the summer. It is certainly reasonable to assert that some portion of the population would be on vacation during the summer and would travel elsewhere.
A rough estimate of this reduction can be obtained as follows:
- 1.
Assume 50 percent of all households vacation for a two-week period over the summer.
- 2.
Assume these vacations, in aggregate, are uniformly dispersed over 10 weeks, i.e.
10 percent of the population is on vacation during each two-week interval.
- 3.
Assume half of these vacationers leave the area.
On this basis, the permanent resident population would be reduced by 5 percent in the summer and by a lesser amount in the off-season. This five percent reduction translates into about 6,200 vehicles. Given the uncertainty in this estimate, we elected to apply no reductions in permanent resident population for the summer scenarios to account for residents who may be out of the area.
Indian Point Energy Center 3-6 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 3-3. Permanent Resident Population and Vehicles by ERPA ERPA Persons Vehicles ERPA Persons Vehicles 1
2,206 968 27 2,270 1,013 2
22,826 10,020 28 54 24 3
1,294 568 29 1,170 437 4
3,592 1,575 30 13,271 4,952 5
973 427 31 33,267 12,413 6
7,713 3,383 32 5,089 1,899 7
188 82 33 10,864 4,054 8
11,338 4,973 34 7,602 2,837 9
4,559 2,000 35 24,235 9,043 10 8,152 3,575 36 2,662 993 11 18,382 8,062 37 23,763 8,867 12 3,153 1,383 38 61 23 13 7,240 3,175 39 20 7
14 2,732 1,198 40 579 216 15 1,305 572 41 178 66 16 553 227 42 17 2,005 822 43 18 3,675 1,506 44 19 7,127 2,921 45 20 4,275 1,752 46 21 4,863 2,133 47 337 148 22 29,936 13,130 48 3,540 1,553 23 2,625 1,076 49 2,866 1,257 24 7,360 1,399 50 479 210 25 962 429 51 8,412 3,689 26 5,523 2,466 TOTAL 305,276 123,523
Indian Point Energy Center 3-7 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 N
S E
W S
E WNW ENE NE NW NNW NNE N
RING MILES RING SUBTOTAL TOTAL MILES CUMULATIVE TOTAL 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-EPZ 0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-6 0-7 0-8 0-9 0-10 0-EPZ DETAIL OF 1-2 MILE RING
292 157 442 1567 423 320 2556 0
5566 2641 857 3018 445 620 836 614 604 24 8378 3675 1657 3540 3091 3282 1783 2918 3139 321 221 2194 1819 1137 2424 4677 7805 5983 2649 18 660 723 1918 588 788 1010 602 1676 1232 467 250 1244 826 648 1028 789 1781 4096 292 444 1925 1770 1544 3185 2778 2456 11456 12117 4114 234 0
182 0
0 0
2638 3109 4375 184 0
961 9314 8866 1275 5089 5033 10040 3870 300 2211 3810 6983 5824 5681 2526 10211 12289 12078 252 1690 2001 2421 550 562 2100 276 202 5041 0
661 0
0 0
0 0
0 7
203 0
0 0
0 0
0 10 3
260 33 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
117 1949 102 0
0 0
836 644 0
0 0
4 215 0
0 0
763 1380 800 1210 17 945 5350 5932 17266 35600 30363 9305 11669 43973 12855 45050 62103 15095 1407 326 2168 1699 10465 1104 2244 11765 21775 19176 29082 29822 20884 26830 48682 56839 38177 2244 14009 35784 54960 84042 113864 134748 161578 210260 267099 305276 31 0
2065 4113 1133 90 248 2184 768 418 190 0
536 20 0
0 0
144 Permanent Resident Population Figure 3-2. Permanent Residents by Sector
Indian Point Energy Center 3-8 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 N
S E
W S
E WNW ENE NE NW NNW NNE N
RING MILES RING SUBTOTAL TOTAL MILES CUMULATIVE TOTAL 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-EPZ 0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-6 0-7 0-8 0-9 0-10 0-EPZ DETAIL OF 1-2 MILE RING
0 11 141 8
205 194 102 81 132 111 0
0 0
0 0
14 69 59 192 109 184 131 120 1048 2441 1158 357 1237 182 254 342 252 248 3675 1612 727 1552 1356 1388 731 1196 1286 97 962 798 499 1063 2051 3423 2624 1161 289 317 841 258 346 443 264 735 540 109 545 362 284 450 346 781 1796 128 844 776 677 1397 1218 1077 5024 5314 1804 80 0
0 0
195 1157 1363 1919 484 0
358 3475 3308 476 1898 1878 3746 1444 825 1421 2605 2173 2119 943 3810 4585 4506 631 747 903 205 210 784 103 75 1881 247 0
0 0
0 0
0 3
78 0
0 0
0 0
4 1
181 12 0
0 0
0 0
0 44 870 46 0
0 373 288 0
0 0
2 96 0
0 340 616 357 540 1017 8
422 1926 7377 15338 13316 4080 5115 19283 5637 16847 23202 5650 528 205 960 759 3300 985 5123 9252 7965 11517 12009 8081 11069 18912 23426 15184 985 6108 15360 23325 34842 46851 54932 66001 84913 108339 123523 0
906 1804 497 39 109 958 337 183 83 0
200 7
0 0
0 Permanent Resident Vehicles Figure 3-3. Permanent Resident Vehicles by Sector
Indian Point Energy Center 3-9 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Transient Population Transient population groups are defined as those people who enter the EPZ for a specific purpose (shopping, recreation) and who leave on the same day or who stay overnight at camping facilities or hotels and motels. The Indian Point EPZ has a number of areas that attract transients in significant number, including:
Jefferson Valley Mall, Palisades Center Mall2, Woodbury Commons - Shopping, recreation Cortlandt Town Center - Shopping Franklin D. Roosevelt State Park - Recreation for day-trippers Harriman State Park and Croton Point Park - Camping, fishing, hiking, etc.
Because the great majority of people utilizing these facilities travel in private vehicles, it is possible to estimate the transient population by first obtaining an estimate of the parking capacity of each facility and then applying a per vehicle occupancy factor to arrive at the population estimate. Care must be taken to avoid double-counting vehicles belonging to permanent residents who use the facilities. The following are estimates of transient population of each of these groups:
Jefferson Valley Mall The Jefferson Valley Mall, in Yorktown Heights, is a large retail shopping facility, with approximately 554,600 square feet of retail space. Data obtained shows that during its peak season (the Christmas holiday), an average of 10,500 shoppers may shop at the mall on a daily basis. With a daily average of 630 employees, and 2,888 parking spaces available, approximately 2,258 parking spaces would remain available to shoppers. Using a vehicular occupancy for transient vehicles of 2.4 persons/vehicle, the population estimate for this facility is 5,419 with an additional 400 persons that may arrive by bus. A total of 5,819 shoppers could be at the mall at any given time.
Palisades Center Mall The Palisades Center Mall, in West Nyack, is just south of the EPZ. Since it attracts a large number of transients, evacuees from the mall would be part of the shadow evacuation. This mall has approximately 1.85 million square feet of retail space and 8,400 parking spaces. With approximately 1,600 employees at the mall at any given time, during midday, this leaves 6,800 parking spaces available for shoppers and entertainment patrons. Approximately 40 percent of the shoppers are from Rockland County, 10 percent from Orange County, 15 percent from New Jersey, and 35 percent from Westchester County. Double-counting EPZ residents must be avoided.
2 The Palisades Center Mall and Woodbury Commons are outside of the EPZ. However, due to their proximity to the EPZ and their substantial ability to draw transients into the area, we consider them explicitly.
Indian Point Energy Center 3-10 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Woodbury Common Premium Outlets The Woodbury Common Premium Outlets, in Central Valley, is another large shopping facility just to the west of the EPZ. It has more than 220 shops and serves numerous shoppers, many whom arrive by bus from Manhattan. We estimate a total of 5,900 vehicles may be present at any one time.
Cortlandt Town Center The Cortlandt Town Center is a large strip mall located on Route 6, approximately five minutes west of the Jefferson Valley Mall. The Center features an A & P Supermarket, a Home Depot and a Wal-Mart, each having approximately 300 employees. This mall is approximately 500,000 square feet, which is comparable in size to the Jefferson Valley Mall. We estimate a total of 4,550 shoppers could be at the mall at any given time.
State and County Parks A number of sources of information regarding population estimates for the parks in the EPZ were utilized. Contacts were made with the Palisades Interstate Park Commission and county park managers. These data yield a peak period attendance of approximately 68,887 people. Tables 3-4 and 3-5 present transient population and vehicle estimates by ERPA, respectively. Figures 3-4 and 3-5 present the transient population and vehicle estimates by sector.
Indian Point Energy Center 3-11 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 3-4. Transient Population by ERPA ERPA Hotels Daytime State Parks
& Camps: EPZ Residents Daytime State Parks &
Camps: Non-EPZ Residents Overnight State Parks &
Camps Shoppers EPZ Residents Shoppers Non-EPZ Residents Non-EPZ Resident ERPA Totals 1
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 2
138 0
0 0
0 0
138 3
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 4
0 1,250 1,250 0
0 0
1,250 5
0 0
0 0
0 0
6 24 3,300 6,700 0
0 0
6,724 7
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 8
0 0
0 0
3,003 1,548 0
9 76 0
0 0
0 0
76 10 0
0 0
0 0
0 1,548 11 0
0 0
0 3,845 1,981 1,981 12 0
0 0
222 0
0 222 13 783 3,772 11,318 0
0 0
12,101 14 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
15 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
16 0
0 0
262 0
0 262 17 0
0 0
80 0
0 80 18 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
19 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
20 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
21 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
22 639 0
0 120 0
0 759 23 11 0
0 0
0 0
11 24 292 0
0 0
0 0
292 25 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
26 383 0
0 0
0 0
383 27 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
28 0
0 0
0 2,092 11,856 11,856 29 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
30 308 0
0 445 0
0 753 31 20 350 350 0
0 0
370 32 108 2,475 5,025 0
0 0
5,133 33 40 0
0 0
0 0
40 34 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
35 0
0 0
485 0
0 485 36 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
37 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
38 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
39 120 2,678 8,037 0
0 0
8,157 40 0
2,482 14,068 2,995 0
0 17,063 41 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
42 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
43 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
44 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
45 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
46 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
47 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
48 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
49 230 0
0 0
0 0
230 50 0
129 771 0
0 0
771 51 1,254 0
0 0
0 0
1,254 Totals 4,426 16,436 47,519 4,609 8,940 15,385 71,939
Indian Point Energy Center 3-12 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 3-5. Transient Vehicles by ERPA ERPA Hotels Daytime State Parks
& Camps: EPZ Residents Daytime State Parks &
Camps: Non-EPZ Residents Overnight State Parks &
Camps Shoppers EPZ Residents Shoppers Non-EPZ Residents Non-EPZ Resident ERPA Total Vehicles 1
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 2
69 0
0 0
0 0
69 3
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 4
0 436 436 0
0 0
436 5
0 0
0 0
0 0
6 12 1,443 2,931 0
0 0
2,943 7
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 8
0 0
0 0
1,164 600 0
9 38 0
0 0
0 0
38 10 0
0 0
0 0
0 600 11 0
0 0
0 1,489 767 767 12 0
0 0
50 0
0 50 13 111 1,097 3,290 0
0 0
3,401 14 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
15 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
16 0
0 0
46 0
0 46 17 0
0 0
25 0
0 25 18 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
19 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
20 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
21 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
22 566 0
0 21 0
0 587 23 5
0 0
0 0
0 5
24 97 0
0 0
0 0
97 25 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
26 188 0
0 0
0 0
188 27 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
28 0
0 0
0 1,040 5,891 5,891 29 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
30 154 0
0 70 0
0 224 31 10 95 95 0
0 0
105 32 54 511 1,039 0
0 0
1,093 33 60 0
0 0
0 0
60 34 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
35 0
0 0
300 0
0 300 36 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
37 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
38 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
39 30 1,157 3,472 0
0 0
3,502 40 0
722 4,094 596 0
0 4,690 41 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
42 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
43 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
44 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
45 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
46 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
47 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
48 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
49 12 0
0 0
0 0
12 50 0
129 262 0
0 0
262 51 826 0
0 0
0 0
826 Totals 2,232 5,590 15,619 1,108 3,693 7,258 26,217
Indian Point Energy Center 3-13 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 N
S E
W S
E WNW ENE NE NW NNW NNE N
RING MILES RING SUBTOTAL TOTAL MILES CUMULATIVE TOTAL 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-EPZ 0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-6 0-7 0-8 0-9 0-10 0-EPZ DETAIL OF 1-2 MILE RING
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
339 372 0
11 0
0 0
0 0
0 619 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 24 0
254 505 0
1254 0
0 0
0 6700 0
0 0
0 631 0
364 0
0 381 0
2606 0
0 120 0
0 0
0 2037 6700 224 81 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
1548 0
0 0
0 0
76 0
0 0
0 1981 0
230 0
0 12243 0
0 0
222 0
0 0
0 0
0 4931 121 308 0
352 0
0 0
0 20 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 9709 0
50 0
64 0
0 144 0
0 808 0
195 0
5320 0
0 0
0 1686 0
0 0
231 0
245 642 0
2057 13092 864 6047 905 401 12365 0
2855 1370 6379 224 2005 20513 13085 8178 11977 5353 0
2855 4225 10604 10828 11285 31798 44883 53061 65038 71939 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
3296 7
11856 0
722 0
15598 1003 8157 305 138 0
0 0
2717 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
Transients Figure 3-4. Transient Population by Sector
Indian Point Energy Center 3-14 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 N
S E
W S
E WNW ENE NE NW NNW NNE N
RING MILES RING SUBTOTAL TOTAL MILES CUMULATIVE TOTAL 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-EPZ 0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-6 0-7 0-8 0-9 0-10 0-EPZ DETAIL OF 1-2 MILE RING
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 84 122 0
5 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 391 12 225 362 0
826 0
0 0
0 3374 0
0 0
0 0
0 350 0
0 60 0
1424 0
0 0
0 0
0 1816 3374 110 40 0
0 0
0 0
0 600 0
0 0
0 0
38 0
0 0
0 1975 0
12 0
20 0
0 0
50 0
0 0
0 3387 100 188 0
190 0
0 0
0 10 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 2690 0
14 0
10 0
0 40 0
0 224 0
54 0
1455 0
0 0
669 0
0 0
64 0
50 91 0
2013 141 428 70 4128 0
789 652 1763 110 1221 0
789 1441 3204 3314 3935 11148 14926 18793 22807 0
0 652 0
0 5357 0
684 1300 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 913 2
3914 211 0
4943 278 1955 150 0
69 0
0 0
500 0
0 0
0 0
220 0
0 0
0 0
7213 3778 2810 3867 4014 26217 Transient Vehicles Figure 3-5. Transient Vehicles by Sector
Indian Point Energy Center 3-15 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Employees Employees who work within the EPZ fall into two categories:
Those who live and work in the EPZ Those who live outside of the EPZ and commute to jobs within the EPZ.
Those of the first category have already been counted as part of the permanent resident population. To avoid double counting, we focus on those employees who will evacuate along with the permanent resident population.
The major areas of employment within the Indian Point EPZ are:
Indian Point Energy Center - in Buchanan VA Hudson Valley Healthcare System - in Montrose Jefferson Valley Mall and IBM/Watson Research Center - in Yorktown Heights Cortlandt Town Center - in Cortlandt Pace University - campuses in Briarcliff Manor and Pleasantville United States Military Academy - in West Point To represent the number of persons that work in the EPZ but live outside the EPZ, 1990 New York State journey-to-work data3 was used. The data defines the number of persons working in a specified location (municipality) by their place of residence (origin municipality). The data indicates that, on average, 46 percent of workers in any municipality come from outside the EPZ.
This figure agrees with data obtained by the KLD survey of employers. The total number of jobs in any municipality was determined from NYS Department of Labor statistics for the year 2000.
Thus in each ERPA, the number of jobs held by people who enter the EPZ on a daily basis was obtained by multiplying this percentage by the total number of employees.
A factor of 1.07 persons per employee vehicle obtained from the 2000 Census, was used to determine the number of evacuating employee vehicles for Rockland, Orange and Westchester Counties; a factor of 1.05 persons per employee vehicle obtained from the 2000 Census was used in Putnam County.
Table 3-6 presents non-EPZ Resident employee and vehicle estimates by ERPA. Figures 3-6 and 3-7 present these data by sector.
3 Journey to Work data based on 2000 Census information was not available at this time.
Indian Point Energy Center 3-16 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 3-6. Non-EPZ Resident Employee Population by ERPA ERPA Persons Vehicles ERPA Persons Vehicles 1
979 915 27 35 33 2
2,739 2,560 28 0
0 3
39 37 29 0
0 4
949 887 30 151 142 5
0 0
31 2,662 2,488 6
689 644 32 234 219 7
185 173 33 2,147 2,007 8
659 616 34 342 320 9
153 143 35 8,543 7,985 10 1,709 1,598 36 1,380 1,290 11 830 776 37 10,993 10,274 12 1,983 1,854 38 0
0 13 5,655 5,286 39 0
0 14 102 96 40 426 399 15 3,006 2,810 41 0
0 16 335 320 42 0
0 17 0
0 43 0
0 18 10 10 44 0
0 19 188 180 45 0
0 20 5,070 4,829 46 0
0 21 5,856 5,473 47 0
0 22 3,524 3,294 48 231 216 23 533 508 49 6
6 24 1,980 1,851 50 116 109 25 834 780 51 8,219 7,682 26 565 529 Total 74,057 69,339
Indian Point Energy Center 3-17 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 N
S E
W S
E WNW ENE NE NW NNW NNE N
RING MILES RING SUBTOTAL TOTAL MILES CUMULATIVE TOTAL 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-EPZ 0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-6 0-7 0-8 0-9 0-10 0-EPZ DETAIL OF 1-2 MILE RING
0 1418 1400 0
0 0
0 21 0
0 0
0 0
0 168 0
123 1814 0
0 489 0
0 0
1505 604 99 0
61 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 632 5718 1435 0
5841 0
0 0
0 0
0 728 717 2229 0
0 2412 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 640 0
14495 3674 0
170 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
141 259 259 0
90 90 5
5 0
0 523 1044 0
0 2343 0
90 0
0 0
0 760 99 0
0 0
0 5183 2755 0
1564 0
0 604 1221 0
123 0
920 137 0
0 0
208 3326 0
1264 0
609 395 0
1836 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 848 0
0 0
0 0
8789 2770 0
0 0
7108 7801 0
561 2774 180 2466 9961 1564 5280 11513 11212 0
0 848 141 1158 889 1674 832 1052 2708 2161 10862 13267 8464 29309 2839 3728 5402 6234 7286 9994 12155 23017 36284 44748 74057 0
869 20 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
2839 Employees Figure 3-6. Employee Population by Sector
Indian Point Energy Center 3-18 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 N
S E
W S
E WNW ENE NE NW NNW NNE N
RING MILES RING SUBTOTAL TOTAL MILES CUMULATIVE TOTAL 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-EPZ 0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-6 0-7 0-8 0-9 0-10 0-EPZ DETAIL OF 1-2 MILE RING
0 0
1309 1325 0
0 0
0 20 0
0 0
0 0
0 159 0
116 1695 0
0 453 0
0 0
1408 564 87 58 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 590 5345 1341 0
5460 0
0 0
0 0
0 670 670 2083 0
0 2254 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
599 0
13549 3424 242 242 0
85 85 5
5 0
0 489 976 0
0 2232 0
85 0
0 0
0 711 87 0
0 0
4844 2575 0
1463 0
0 1140 0
114 857 130 0
0 0
187 3137 0
1182 0
570 365 0
1716 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 793 0
0 0
0 0
8307 2638 0
0 0
6644 7316 0
520 2296 1463 10809 10476 0
2654 991 2530 2017 10148 12420 7945 27455 2654 3486 5053 5833 9354 11371 21519 33939 41884 0
0 132 0
160 0
0 0
0 0
793 132 0
0 172 0
0 570 4935 0
1083 9306 0
2595 813 19 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 832 780 1567 6824 69339 Employee Vehicles Figure 3-7. Employee Vehicles by Sector
Indian Point Energy Center 3-19 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Medical Facilities The existing plans for Rockland, Orange, Putnam and Westchester Counties present estimates of the populations of medical facilities such as hospitals, nursing and retirement homes and other health-related facilities. The number and type of evacuating vehicles that need to be provided depends on the patients' state of health. Buses can transport up to 40 people; vans, up to 12 people; ambulances, up to 2 people (patients).
Total Demand in Addition to Permanent Population There will be vehicles traveling through the EPZ (external-external trips) at the time of the accident. After the Advisory to Evacuate is announced, these through travelers will also evacuate. These through vehicles are assumed to travel on interstate routes and on the major north and southbound limited access highways in the area, which are the primary routes through the EPZ. It is assumed that this traffic will continue to enter the EPZ during the first 90 minutes following the Advisory to Evacuate. We estimate approximately 24,000 vehicles enter the EPZ as external-external trips during this period.