ML032510762
| ML032510762 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 05/31/2003 |
| From: | KLD Associates |
| To: | Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME |
| References | |
| NL-03-139 KLD TR-369 | |
| Download: ML032510762 (4) | |
Text
APPENDIX I Evacuation Sensitivity Studies
Indian Point Energy Center I-1 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 APPENDIX I: EVACUATION SENSITIVITY STUDIES A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effects on Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) of changes in the percentage of people who decide to relocate from the Shadow Region. The movement of people in the shadow region, described earlier as the region between the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) boundary and the bounding Interstate Highways, has a potential to impede vehicles evacuating from an Evacuation Region within the EPZ.
Table I-1 presents the number of vehicles originating trips within the Shadow Region over a range of assumed Percent Shadow Traffic. The case selected for this study is Scenario 1 (Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather) and Evacuation Region R3: the entire EPZ. Note that the evacuating vehicles remain constant as the number of shadow vehicles varies.
Table I-1. Numbers of Vehicles For Various Shadow Percentages Percent Shadow Traffic Evacuating Vehicles Shadow Vehicles Total Vehicles 15 238,685 31,510 270,195 30 238,685 63,020 301,705 50 238,685 105,033 343,718 60 238,685 126,040 364,725 Table I-2 presents the evacuation time estimates for each of these cases. The ETE for the entire EPZ increases from 8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br /> 45 minutes to 10 hours1.157407e-4 days <br />0.00278 hours <br />1.653439e-5 weeks <br />3.805e-6 months <br /> as the percent shadow traffic increases from 15 to 60 percent. The clearance time for vehicles originating their trips within the shadow region increases from 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br /> to 11 hours1.273148e-4 days <br />0.00306 hours <br />1.818783e-5 weeks <br />4.1855e-6 months <br /> 30 minutes under the same conditions.
Table I-2 shows that the effects of shadow traffic are more pronounced within the Shadow Region then within the EPZ. Further, the traffic movement within the outer ring of the EPZ beyond 5 miles is more affected than that within the inner areas of the EPZ.
Table I-2. Evacuation Time Estimates for Shadow Sensitivity Study Evacuation Time Estimate Percent Shadow Evacuation 2-Mile Region 5-Mile Region Entire EPZ Shadow Region 15 8:00 8:40 8:45 9:00 30 9:00 9:05 9:25 9:45 50 9:20 9:25 9:40 10:50 60 9:25 9:30 10:00 11:30 Figure I-1 presents the results for the entire EPZ graphically. The evacuation time estimates tend to have a long tail. At the 90th percentile of evacuated vehicles, the ETE increases from about 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> 20 minutes to about 7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br /> 30 minutes as the amount of shadow traffic is increases.
Indian Point Energy Center I-2 KLD Associates, Inc.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Figure I-1. Evacuation Times For The Entire EPZ For Various Estimates Of Shadow Population Movement Effect of Shadow Evacuation on Indian Point ETE 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 720 780 Elapsed Time (Mins)
Vehicles Evacuating 15% Shadow 30% Shadow 50% Shadow 60% Shadow