ML032510762

Indian Point Energy Center Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Appendix I, Evaluation Sensitivity Studies

ML032510762
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	05/31/2003
From:	KLD Associates
To:	Entergy Nuclear Northeast, NRC/FSME
References
NL-03-139 KLD TR-369
Download: ML032510762 (4)

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APPENDIX IEvacuation Sensitivity Studies Indian Point Energy CenterI-1KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1APPENDIX I: EVACUATION SENSITIVITY STUDIESA sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effects on Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) ofchanges in the percentage of people who decide to relocate from the Shadow Region. The movement of people in the shadow region, described earlier as the region between the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) boundary and the bounding Interstate Highways, has a potential to impede vehicles evacuating from an Evacuation Region within the EPZ.Table I-1 presents the number of vehicles originating trips within the Shadow Region over a rangeof assumed "Percent Shadow Traffic". The case selected for this study is Scenario 1 (Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather) and Evacuation Region R3: the entire EPZ. Note that the evacuating vehicles remain constant as the number of shadow vehicles varies.Table I-1. Numbers of Vehicles For Various Shadow PercentagesPercentShadowTrafficEvacuatingVehiclesShadowVehiclesTotalVehicles15238,68531,510270,19530238,68563,020301,70550238,685105,033343,71860238,685126,040364,725Table I-2 presents the evacuation time estimates for each of these cases. The ETE for the entire EPZincreases from 8 hours9.259259e-5 days <br />0.00222 hours <br />1.322751e-5 weeks <br />3.044e-6 months <br /> 45 minutes to 10 hours1.157407e-4 days <br />0.00278 hours <br />1.653439e-5 weeks <br />3.805e-6 months <br /> as the percent shadow traffic increases from 15 to 60 percent. The clearance time for vehicles originating their trips within the shadow region increases

from 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br /> to 11 hours1.273148e-4 days <br />0.00306 hours <br />1.818783e-5 weeks <br />4.1855e-6 months <br /> 30 minutes under the same conditions.Table I-2 shows that the effects of shadow traffic are more pronounced within the Shadow Regionthen within the EPZ. Further, the traffic movement within the outer ring of the EPZ beyond 5 miles is more affected than that within the inner areas of the EPZ.Table I-2. Evacuation Time Estimates for Shadow Sensitivity StudyEvacuation Time EstimatePercentShadowEvacuation2-MileRegion5-MileRegionEntire EPZShadowRegion158:008:408:459:00309:009:059:259:45509:209:259:4010:50609:259:3010:0011:30Figure I-1 presents the results for the entire EPZ graphically. The evacuation time estimates tend tohave a long "tail." At the 90 th percentile of evacuated vehicles, the ETE increases from about 6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> 20 minutes to about 7 hours8.101852e-5 days <br />0.00194 hours <br />1.157407e-5 weeks <br />2.6635e-6 months <br /> 30 minutes as the amount of shadow traffic is increases.

Indian Point Energy CenterI-2KLD Associates, Inc.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 1Figure I-1. Evacuation Times For The Entire EPZ ForVarious Estimates Of Shadow Population MovementEffect of Shadow Evacuation on Indian Point ETE 0%20%40%60%80%100%060120180240300360420480540600660720780Elapsed Time (Mins)Vehicles Evacuating15% Shadow30% Shadow50% Shadow60% Shadow