ML20238F239
| ML20238F239 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Seabrook  |
| Issue date: | 09/14/1987 |
| From: | Adler T, Befort W, High C MASSACHUSETTS, COMMONWEALTH OF |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20238F181 | List: |
| References | |
| OL, NUDOCS 8709160040 | |
| Download: ML20238F239 (50) | |
Text
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Before Administrative Judges:
Helen F. Hoyt, Chairperson Gustave A. Linenberger, Jr. ,
Dr. Jerry Harbour I l
)
In the Matter of )
)
PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF NEW ) Docket Nos.
HAMPSHIRE, ET AL. ) 50-443-444-OL (Seabrook Station, Units 1 and 2) ) (Off-site EP)
) September 14, 1987
)
TESTIMONY OF COLIN HIGH, THOMAS J. ADLER AND WILLIAM A. BEFORT ON BEHALF OF THE ATTORNEY GENERAL FOR THE COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS ON SAPL CONTENTION NO. 31, SAPL CONTENTION NO. 34 AND TOWN OF HAMPTON REVISED CONTENTION III Department of the Attorney General Commonwealth of Massachusetts One Ashburton Place Boston, MA 02108-1698 (617) 727-2265 8709160040 870911 3 PDR ADOCK 05000 T
L UNITED STATSS OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Before Administrative Judges:
Helen F. Hoyt, Chairperson Gustave A. Linenberger, Jr.
Dr. Jerry Harbour
)
)
,In the Matter of )
)
PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF NEW ) Docket Nos.
HAMPSHIRE, ET AT . ) 50-443-444-OL
-(Seab;vvi station, Units 1 and 2) ) (Off-site EP)
) September 14, 1987
)
TESTIMONY OF COLIN HIGH, THOMAS J. ADLER AND WILLIAM A. BEFORT ON BEHALF OF THE ATTORNEY GENERAL FOR THE COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS ON SAPL CONTENTION NO. 31, SAPL CONTENTION NO. 34 AND TOWN OF HAMPTON REVISED CONTENTION III l
Department of the Attorney General Commonwealth of Massachusetts One Ashburton Place Boston, MA 02108-1698 (617) 727-2265
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION
.Befora Administrative Judges:
Helen F. Hoyt, Chairperson l Gustave A. Linanbargar, Jr.
Dr. Jarry Harbour
)
)
In the Matter of )
)
PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF NEW ) Docket Nos.
HAMPSHIRE, ET AL, ) 50-443-444-OL (Seabrook. Station, Units 1 and 2) ) (Off-site EP)
) September 14, 1987
)
TESTIMONYROF COLIN HIGH , THOMAS J. ADLER AND WILLIAM A. BEFORT ON BEHALF OF THE ATTORNEY GENERAL FOR THE COMh0NWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS ON SAPL CONTENTION NO. 31, SAPL CONTENTION NO. 34 AND TOWN OF HAMPTON REVISED CONTENTION III Q. What ara your namas, affiliations and qualifications?
A. (High) My name is Colin High. I am a principal of f
Rasource Systams Group, Inc., of Norwich, Vermont and also Associate Professor of Engineering and Environmental Studies at Dartmouth College, Hanovar, New Hampshire. I hold a B.S. and a Ph.D. dagraa in Gaography and Geology from tha Univarsity of Bristol, England. I hava recaivad formal undergraduate and graduate training in aerial photography and remote sensing techniquas. I have bean an instructor in aarial photo intarpratation, remota sensing, and statistical mathods at tha university laval. I hava 22 yaars of axperiance in tha usa of
k aerial photographs in land use studies, site evaluation and environmental science. I have received grants and contracts from NASA, the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Forest Service, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture involving the use or interpretation of aerial photographs and other remote-sensed images. A copy of my curriculum vitae is attached as Attachment 1. 1 (Befort) My name is William Befort. I am an i
assistant professor at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, New Hampshire. I received a Bachelor of Arts degree in journalism from the University of Minnesota in 1964, a Bachelor i of Science degree in forestry from the same institution in 1974, a Master of Science degree in forestry from the University of Idaho in 1977, and a doctoral degree from the University of Idaho in 1984. I teach aerial photography, I
terrain analysis, digital image processing and other courses in the Forest Resources Department at New Hampshire. I have 12 years of academic and professional experience in taking and l
interpreting aerial photographs, and have served as a remote l
sensing instructor and airphoto research associate for the U.S.
Forest Service. A copy of my curriculum vitae is attached as Attachment 2.
(Adler) My name is Thomas Adler. I am a principal of Resource Systems Group, Inc., of Norwich, Vermont. I received a Bachelor of Science in Civil and Environmental Engineering from Cornell University in 1972, a Master of Science from ;
)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.) in 1975, and a l
l
Ph.D. from M.I.T. in Transportation Systams in 1976. Whi19
. completing my doctoral dissertation I was a fallow at the Joint Canter for Urban Studies of M.I.T. and Harvard. Ovar tha pariod 1976 to 1986 I was a profassor in tha Rasourca Policy 1
Canter, an acadamic and rasaarch program of tha Thayar School of Engineering at Dartmouth Collaga. At Dartmouth I taught graduate and undergraduate-lavel courses in the araas of transportation systems analysis, transportation engineering, transportation planning, computar/ mathematical modeling techniques, statistical analysis, and computer scienca. I j diracted a program of rasearch for clients such as th U.S.
Dapartmant of Transportation, U.S. Departmant of Enargy and i othars in tha ganeral area of computer modeling of transportation systams. I also consulted on a part-time basis for major transportation consulting firms such as Cambridga Systematics (Cambridge, MA) and Gannatt Flaming Transportation Enginaars (Harrisburg, PA). A copy of my curriculum vitae is attachad as Attachment 3.
Q. To which specific contentions does your testimony 1
rafer? I l
A. (Adler, Befort, High) Our testimony refors to: Town I of Hampton revisad contantion III to Ravision 2 (Population Estimatas); SAPL Ravised Contention 31/ Basis 20; and SAPL Contention 34.
Q. What is the purpose of the investigations which you undertook and how do they ralata to tha spacific contentions citad hara?
A. (All) Wa undertook to provida an indapand9nt and impartial avaluation of tha avidanca which was used to estimate tha baach population including the transiant populations on busy summar days at the Naw Hampshire and Massachusetts baachas within the Seabrook Station EPZ. We supplemented tha examination of tha avidence ralied on by KLD with an analysis of two naw sets of aerial photographs taken on July 5 and July 19, 1987, and with fiald observations. Wa counted parked vahicles, vahicles in traffic and parking spacas from these aerial photographs and theraby w9re abla to test the astimates of the number of vahicles and parking spaces mada by KLD for Voluma 6 of the Now Hampshire Radiological Emargency Rasponse Plan, Ravision 2 ("NHRERP" or the " Plan"). The number of vahiclas and tha numbar of parking spaces are critical to the NHRERP astimatas of tha paak beach araa populations and avacuating vahicla numbars and, tharafore, to the avacuation tima astimates ("ETEs") and other provisions of tha Plan. Our tastimony ralatas to the baach araa population and vahicla astimatas raisad in those contentions.
Q. Would you plaase briafly summariza your findings from thasa studias?
A. (All) Wa found that the astimates prasanted in tha Plan of tha numbar of people and vehicles in tha baach araas of l
tha EPZ for a peak summar day are significantly too low. The l Plan's astimates ara basad on the interpretation of aarial photography from August 1985. Based on thasa now 2 yaar old photographs, KLD astimatad tha paak summar day baach population in tha Seabrook EPZ to be approximately 61,000 paopla. Using 4 :-
V <
.c aeria1 Photographs from July, 1987 and' applying essentially the ,
1 same method described by KLD, we estimate that the 1987 peak summer day beach population could exceed.93,000 - over 52% more l
-people L than-the,NHRERP Rev. 2 plans for.
The 1985 KLD: estimates are based on the sound assumption-thatzthe total population in the. beach ardas is a function of the. total number of parking spaces available for motor
' vehicles. KLD counted both actual vehicles and unoccupied parking spaces. revealed by its August 1985 aerial photos to establish what KLD called.a " reasonable upper bound to the number of possible parked vehicles" in the beach areas.
NHRERP, Rev. 2, Vol. 6 at E-5. This " upper bound" was determined to be.25,470 vehicles. Treating this figure as a conservative estimate, KLD proceeded to use 25,808. vehicles as an input for determining the ETEs for the beach areas.
However, our' counts.of actual vehicles and unoccupied parking spaces from our'1987 aerial photos establish that today a l reasonable estimate of the number of1available parking spaces f-is 38,825, a 52% increase in the number of. motor vehicles and, H
'therefore, population 1! over KLD's " conservative" estimate. f I
(t 1/ lFor purposes of this population estimate we simply adopt KLD's figure of 2.4 people per motor vehicle in the beach area. In no way should this be taken as support'for the accuracy of this figure. In fact, using data. contained in the Beach Survey' performed by AEL Associates, we have calculated a weekend vehicle occupancy rate for the beach areas of 2.854 persons per vehicle. We derived the vehicle occupancy rate for each beach area in New Hampshire and then calcu1&ted an average of: these vehicle occupancy rates weighted by beach area vehicle populations. Based on this weighted average vehicle occupancy rate, the maximum population of the beach areas could be as high as 110,800 (38,825 parking spaces x 2.854 persons per vehicle).
1 The number of actual parked vehicles we counted on the h.
July 19, 1987 photos -- 25,451 -- essentially equals the KLD I
estimate of total parking capacity -- 25,470. As noted, this L KLD figure includes' actual parked vehicles plus unoccupied but useable parking spaces. Moreover, our July 5, 1987 count of actual parked vehicles -- 24,309 -- nearly equals the KLD capacity figure even though the aerial photographs were taken between 3:30 and 4:45 p.m., after many beach visitors had already left and parking lots were below capacity.
Based on our work, we think that KLD seriously underestimated the number of useable parking spaces in the beach areas. We conclude, therefore, that those parts of the emergency Plan that rely on the estimates of vehicles and parking capacity'within the beach areas of the EPZ are seriously in error. In addition, we believe that the upper bound on the parking capacity of the area is in fact much greater even than our estimate of 38,825 because substantial areas of land are available for parking which could permit even larger numbers of transients as peak day use increases.
Q. What are the critical assumptions in the analysis performed by KLD for the NHRERP with respect to vehicles, parking and population of the beach areas and how did your studies relate to them?
i A. (All) KLD made several assumptions. First, they assumed the transient population of the area was essentially determined by the number of vehicles in the area and the l
1avarage vahicle occupancy rate. Second, thay assumed that aerial photographs, specifically low-altituda high-engla oblique color transparencies, taken at timas of expactad heavy
-beach use wera appropriate instruments to document the number of vahiclas'and tha numbar of parking spaces in tha area.
Third, thay. assumed that the number of availabla parking spacas sat a raasonable'uppar bound on tha number of vehiclas in tha area, and that that number was a conservative astimate of tha baach area vehicles and transiant population to usa for emergency planning purposes.
Our studies ralatad to each of thase assumptions.
y, With raspact to the first assumption, we agree with KLD that tha number of vehicles in tha araa and tha averaga vehicle occupancy rata affectively detarmina tha transiant population.
We differ with KLD on both tha number of vehicles that are in tha araa on busy summer days and with thair astimate of tha raasonabla upper bound on the number of vehicles that could use tha araa.
With raspect to the sacond assumption, wa agree that low- altituda, high-angle, oblique color transparencies ara a raasonabla mathod for counting tha numbar of vehicles and astimating tha number of parking spacas in the araa. Wa found from an examination of copias of 35mm transparencies usad by !
I KLD and from working with two sats of similar transparencies which we took on July 5 and July 19, that counting parked and moving vehicles and estimating visibla parking spaces wera i
. 7 -
L ralativaly straightforward in most instancas. High-angle oblique photographs, as opposad to vartical photographs, do hida some parkad cars and available parking spacas which are closa to buildings, and as a rasult, may laad to undercounting both vahicles and parking spacas. KLD astimated hidden spacas using an assumption of 2.6 vehicles par building whera a building had hidden spacas. We interpreted the number of hiddan spaces from the photograph and, whara nacassary, raduced O tha astimatad number in proportion to the area in tha photograph which was unsuitable for parking bacausa it was usad as gardens, swimming pools, atc. Howevar, hidden parking . .
amounts to only 3.3%.of the total number of parking spacas and is, tharafore, not a major factor. We generally find that this typa of aerial photography is appropriate for determining tha numbar of vehiclas and tha number of parking spacas in the araa, although the count of both vehiclas and spaces is dapandant on the day and time whan the photographs are takan.
Tha photographs of July 5 and 19, 1987 that wa usad in our analysis ravaal largar numbars of vehicles and parking spacas than wara ravaalad by the photos usad by KLD for tha NHRERP.
With raspect to tha third assumption, wa agrae that parking spaces sat an uppar bound to tha numbar of parsons who can usa tha area and affectively limit tha number of vahiclas that must evacuata. With minor axcaptions nacassary for consistant intarpratation, wa usad essentially tha same criteria as thosa usad by KLD. Applying thasa critaria to tha 8-
a,.
ql July 5 1987 photographs of the baach araas, we arrived at substantially highar astimates of tha numbar of vahiclas and parking spacas From our analysis, it is also clear that tha -
critaria used by KLD to count vahiclas and astimate parking spacas does not rasult in an upper bound on tha number of possible par, king spacas. An alternative sat of assumptions would hava to ba usad if the uppar bound or actual parking capacity of tha beach araas is to be usad in tha emargancy .-
plan. Although, we have not.mada a completa estimate for tha
' ~
baach araas of this " parking capacity" wa do believe that based on a small sampla,, it is well in excess.of our count of useabla parking spacas from our 1987 photos.
The remainder of this testimony details the mathods of analysis usad and the rasults of our investigations.
Q. Would each of you pleasa state what your specific roles were in the analysis on which this testimony is basad?
A. I was responsible for planning and taking *
(Bafort) tha aarial photographs of the beach araas on July 5 and July 19, 1987, for counting and tabulating the number of parkad vahicles and vahiclas in traffic on thosa datas. I also examinad, and in soma cases racounted, the vehiclas on copias of photographs usad by KLD in preparing thair astimatas. I also conferrad with Dr. High and Dr. Adlar and examined tha transparancias, skatchas, and tabulations that they usad to i astimata tha numbar of parking spacas. With them I axamined sampla photographs to confirm thair mathod of interpretation of vahicla spacas.
. .. . . . . __________-_._-________-_____-______l
t-A. (High) I was responsible for tha photo-interpretation of tha transparencies taken on July 5 and July 19, 1987, that providad a count of the numbar of unoccupied parking spacas 4 which, togather with the counts of parkad vahicles, anablad us 3 to astimate tha number of parking spacas in tha beach areas. I also visitad tha baach areas to verify aarial photo intarpratation procedures.
A. (Adler) I was responsible for advising Dr. High and his staff in the interpretation of parking spacas. Based on my experianca with traffic analysis and parking lot planning I I
providad advice on tha parking access and traffic requirements of parking lots and curb spacas to insure that only spaces ware counted that could be practically usad and would not obstruct traffic. I also parsonally visited tha site on July 5, 1987, before and during the tima tha aarial photographs wera taken on that day. I observed tha extent of parking over tha course of tha day and reportad my observations to Drs. Bafort and High.
Q. Would you plaasa describe tha actual investigations which you undartook?
A. (Bafort) First, I axaminad a numbar of sats of slides (35mm color transparancias) usad by KLD. KLD had mada complata vahicla counts on ona sat of 57 photographs taken on August 11, 1985. I obtainad copias of this set and also of the sats for August 3 and August 4, 1985, and July 4, 1986. According to information whic h accompanied thesa photographs, thesa days vara all clear with tempacaturas around 80 dagreas axcapt on August 11, when tha tamparatura was 90 dagraes and vary hazy, humid conditions pravailad.
I markad tha araas covarad by each photograph on topographic maps to detarmine the completeness of tha coveraga. As a rasult, I found that thare ware substantial gaps in covarage of highly significant araas: --North Baach, Hampton Beach, Saabrook Baach, Salisbury Beach and Plum Island Village on August 3rd. The August 4th set of photos omittad Wallis Sands, Rye Harbor, most of Jannass Beach, and parts of Saabrook Baach and Plum Island Villaga. Tha August 11, 1985, and July 4, 1986, covarage was much more complate. Although thara wara gaps batwaan photographs in thase missions, most wara in araas whara only small numbars of vehiclas ware likely to ba found.
I rapaatad tha entira count of vahiclas on tha sat of 57 photographs for August 11, 1985, which was tha only count made by KLD. We counted a total of 20,127 vahicles on the August 11, 1985, photographs. KLD countad 18,220, but thay apparently countad only parked cars and not cars moving in traffic. Our total of parked cars was 19,010. Also, as far as I can tall from paga E-5 of Volume 6 of tha NHRERP,-tha reportad total does not includa tha Nawburyport part of tha flight whera we countad 1,165 parked vahiclas. If thasa are subtractad, our total for vahiclas in tha baach araa is 17,845 or 375 fawar than tha numbar countad by KLD and usad in tha NHRERP. This diserapancy, about 2% of tha total, is to ba axpectad in a count of this kind.
\
Second, I planned ar:d undartook two flights each of which providad complate coverage of the baach araas on July 5 and July 19, 1987 These two sarias of. overlapping photographs wera taken looking down on the seafront at about a 45 degrae j angla' from an altitude of 1,500 faet with a 50mm lans on a 35mm camera using Kodachroma 200 film. This procadure was followed bacause it was as close as possibla to that used in the photography analyzed by KLD for the NHRERP. Tha missions wera
} flown C"om Skyhavan Airport, Rochastar, Naw Hampshira. On July 5 the temperature was 80 dagraas with scattared clouds and good visibility. The flight time was between 3:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. and tha photographs from which the counts were made were taxan between 3:30 and 4:45 p.m. EDT. The flight tima was dalayad until 3:00 p.m. because parta of tha coastal strip wara closed to ganaral aviation bacause Pease Air Force Base was holding a flying axhibition. On July 19 tha flight was begun aarliar and tha photographs were taken batween 1:40 and 2:40 p.m. Tha temperature was 80 degreas with scattered clouds and was slightly hazy and more humid than on July 5. Thase photographs wara usad for counting cars and wera also usad by tha Rasourca Systems Group to astimate tha number of parking spacas in tha beach araas.
On tha July 5 photos, we countad a total of 28,849 vahicles on tha baach strip from Wallis Sands to the southern tip of Plum Island and in downtown Newburyport. Of thase, 26,555 vahiclas wera parkad and 2,294 wara in traffic. If
Nawburyport is excluded for the purposes of comparison with tha number used in tha Plan, we countad a total of 26,455 cars in the beach strip, 24,309 parked and 2,146 in traffic. On tha July 19 photos we counted a total of 26,949 cars on the baach strip of which 1,498 wera in traffic and 25,451 wera parkad.
Therefore, with raspect to the parked vahiclas, our two 1987 counts were close to 25,000 vehiclas-- 39% greater than tha approximately 18,000 vehicles counted on photographs taken in 1985. In fact, the 1987 actual car counts ara essentially equal to the number which KLD estimatad as the upper bound of the parking capacity in the beach araas. !
Thera.is evidance from the July 5 photography, which was delayed until mid-afternoon, that by the time we photographed the coast the parking areas were alraady starting to ampty.
The larga parking lot in Hampton Baach State Park was about two-thirds full by then and the one in Salisbury park which is tha largast in the entire strip, was only half full. By tha tima wa photographed the northern section of the beach strip after the Paasa Air Force Base flight restriction had been lifted the baachfront parking strip along North Beach was I
nearly vacant. In thase July 5 photographs the major parking '
lots ara less full than in the July 19 photographs but there is i avidance that on July 5 the numbar of parked vehicles may have bean much highar than July 19. In the July 19 photos there is no indication of roadside parking on Highway 51 leading into Hampton Beach, but on July 5th we have a lata aftarnoon 1
13 - I
photograph that shows numarous cars still parkad alongsida this
< highway ~which'would suggast-that earlier in tha day thera had baan a continuous line of parked cars along tha road. Ona of us (Adlar) was at Hampton Beach on July 5 aarly in tha aftarnoon and observad a continuous line of cars parkad on ji Highway 51.
Q. Dr. High what investigations did you undortake?
A. (High) I used two sats of high-angle obliqua photographs of tha new Hampshira and Massachusetts baach community araas within the EPZ that were providad by Professor Befort to estimate the parking capacity of the beach areas.
. 1 Thase photographs--not copies--were used by Professor Befort to i
provide actual' car counts. The photographs consisted of two l sats of color transparencies takan on July 5 and July 19, 1987, which hava been dascribed previously by Professor Befort. Our count of parking spacas was basad on the July 5 images. The July 19 images were usad to clarify detail and act as a cross-raferanca.
Tha July 5 photographs ware used to estimate the number of parking spacas in the beach areas, basad, as far as possibla, on tha sama critaria used by KLD for the NHRERP. This count consiste of the sum of:
- cars parked and countad by Professor Befort;
- unoccupied spacas in organizad official public lots;
- unoccupiad spaces in commarcial lots; 1
i unoccupied spaces in other parking lots whet.her pavad or unpaved where there was evidance that tha lot is used (at .least ona car or wear marks);
- unoccupied spaces in driveways and yards around houses and cottagas (such spaces were counted only if they were accassible without moving other vehicles unless a blocking pattern was actually 3
present);
- unoccupied curb space where there was at least ona car parked in the section, or wear marks to indicate use and where drivaways, intersections or roadways were not obstructed (in the case of major highways such spaces were only counted if they were off the travallad lanes); and
- spaces hiddan by tha presance of buildings and trees. Spaces are hiddan becausa the photographs are oblique. Spaces hidden behind buildings were only counted if
i
'r there.was evidence of access at
! the and of the buildings. Hidden spaces' obstructed by treas were only counted if there was a building present. In complex, dansely' built up areas'such as.
Hampton Beach, tha number of hidden spaces was reduced'by a correction factor to allow for the fact that soma part of the hidden area may not be suitable for s,
parking, e.g. lawns or swimming pools. This corraction factor was based on tha percentage of land in tha parts of.. image that were not hiddan and that were not suitable for parking. Some of the hidden spaces were, in all probability, occupiad when the photographs were takan.
My estimata of tha number of parking spacas in the beach areas within the New Hampshire EPZ is 24,664 and in the Massachusetts EPZ is'14,161, for a total of 38,825 spaces. The breakdown of thase astimates by baach community and a comparison with thosa /
providad by KLD for the evacuation olan is given below and in
)
Figure.1. I l
I l
l T 1: Estimated Numbar of Parking Spaces in tha'Baach Araas
, Vehiclas Unoccupiad Total i NHRERP Countad Parking Spaces Parking Voluma 61 July 52 Countad July 53 Spaces 2 ;
Beach Communities I (Beach Evacuation l Cantroids)
Plum Island, MA 2,575 2,730 864 .3,594 1 (2104, 2081, 2082)
Salisbury, MA 8,064 7,211 3356 10,567 (2093, 2094, 2095) ,
i Seabrook, NH 2,640 2,237 1,685 3,922 (2063)
Hampton, NH 9,134 9,827a 5,531a 15,358 (2105, 2106, 2107, 2108)
N. Hampton,-NH 560 678b 462b 1,140 (2109, 2054) 3ya, NH 2,835 1,626 2,618 4,244 (2110, 2111, 2036, '
2112)
TOTAL 25,8_ J 24,309 14,516 38,825 The number of hidden spaces included within the total is 1,277 which is 3.3% of the total number.2/
2/ 1 From Appendix M of NHRERP Volume 6. The breakdown Betwean baach araas differs slightly from the tabla in Section E-5 of tha same document.
2 Based on counts on photographs taken July 5, 1987, 3:30 to 4:45 p.m.
3 Based on counts on photographs taken July 5, 1987 4 Sum of previous two columns.
a Includes the southernmost 2/3 of Town of Hampton shora north of Routa 101E. (Excludas Plaica Cove which is includad in North Hampton in NHRERP, Appendix M) b Includes the northernmost 1/3 Town of Hampton shore north of Route 101E.
c Saction E in NHRERP Voluma 6 has 25,470. Appandix M usas 25,808. As the evacuation tima estimata is depandant on tha figures given in Appendix M, we quote 25,808 in this tabla for comparison purposes.
17 -
FIGURE 1 Parking. in the ! ,
Seabrook Beach Area. )
NH Plan vs. New Estimates 3 d
i Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ)
, Rye lamptons
[.SScabrookkl'>
x N >
Salisbury g
'}g * .w ,
.\
Plum Island Beach Atta _
5,0@ -
} NH Plan Parking Capacity Estimate Vehicles Counted July 5,1987; .
3:30 to 4:45 P.M. -
yk Unoccupied Parking Spaces ###### #"#"'" #[,"# C'#"I' L on July 5,1987; 3:30 to 4:45 P.M. NnRERP i'olume 6
-17a-
i Q. Is your estimate of the number of parking spaces in the beach areas an absolute upper limit on the parking capacity of the area?
A. (High, Adler) No. It represents, in our judgment, a reasonable estimate of the available parking capacity in the y l
area. Not all'of that capacity may be in use at any one time j as vehicles move around the area. However, all of it could be used. The absolute upper limit is clearly greater because our I parking capacity estimate restricts blocking and double-parking in driveways and yards, and does not allow for double-parking l
' ~
on side streets, parking on travelled lanes, or parking on grassy areas, fron't lawns, vacant lots or beaches. Clearly any or all of these could be used under very heavy use of the beach areas. If all of these additional areas were used the number of vehicles that could be parked would be much higher than our estimate. In order to test this we reinterpreted 10 photographs drawn at random from the set of 108 photos from i
July 5, 1987 that cover the beach strip. We counted all I possible parking spaces in the photograph in addition to those j
l which had previously been counted. In this case we counted I potential spaces previously excluded, such as vacant lots, spaces in driveways that would block others, and areas on front lawns of houses that might be used under unusual conditions.
However, we did not count parking spaces that would obstruct traffic. This sample expanded count resulted in more unan double the number of unoccupied parking spaces (an 18 -
l actual incraase of 119%). 'We do not claim that all of this !
additional capacity _has ever baan used, but it doas suggest that there'is considerable additional parking space which could ;
ba used and that the astimate of 38,825 parking spacas should not be considared as an upper bound of the parking capacity at all.
Q. How wera the estimatas of parking capacity mada and by
.whom?
-A. (High and Adler) They were made by photo-interpretation of the July 5th photographs by projacting tha slidas on to a sheet of white paper which acted as a screen and permanant record. The images were enlarged to approximately 24 inches by 36 inches. We markad parking spacas, overlap areas, and kay geographic information on each of these. white papars, which have been retained as tally records. Two projectors were used side-by-side to ansure that thera was no-doubla counting of overlapping photographs.
Counts were tallied by beach araas that corresponded with tha areas in which tha vehicles were counted by Professor Befort and also with the areas used by KLD and reportad in the NHRERP, Rav. 2 Voluma 6. Tha counts were made by us and by our technical assistants, Laslie Rimmar and Megan Haney, under our direct supervision. These assistants, both of whom hold scianca degrees and have exparienca in traffic and parking analysis, ware trainad by us in 'nis particular aspect of aerial photograph interpretation. In blind cross-checking of
parking space counts, their counts differed from those done by ;
I Dr. High by 3% or less without systematic bias. !
Q.. Dr. Bafort, would you please describe tha actual mathods you used for counting vehicles on tha photographs?
A. (Befort) The methods we used are detailed in the I
protocols. We projected the slides onto a white markerboard i
surface and marked off each vehicle as we counted it. We kept ,
threa separate tallies: vahicles moving in traffic; vehicles parked in parking lots; and vehicles parked elsawhere. We counted every vehicle we could discern, no matter where it was on the photos. We did not know what the KLD interpreters had done, so wa had no basis for leaving anything out. Because tha baach strip is divided from tha mainland by a broad band of salt marsh, very few of the vehicles pictured wer9 inland from tha baach strip. I would estimate a few hundred at most, l probably fawer.
The actual vehicla counting was dona by ma and several assistants whom I had trained and who worked under my direct supervision. For the critical July 5 set of photographs, I interpreted 80% of the photographs and my assistants did approximately 20%. Tha July 19, 1987, sat was interpreted by ma and Dr. Albert E. Luloff working together on adjacent photographs.
I also did a complate recount of one set that had baen counted by my assistants. The difference between thase counts was approximately 1%. This gava ma confidence in tha accuracy of tha work dona by my assistants.
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1 Q. Can you account for why your estimates of the number ] 1 of parking spaces in the baach araas is significantly larger than the estimates made by KLD?
A. (High, Adler, Befort) There ara sevaral possible reasons. First, there were claarly far more vehicles presant in the beach areas on July 5 and July 19, 1987, than on August 11, 1985. Thase were obviously busier days than tha datas chosen for analysis by tha Applicants' consultants. However, our_vahicle counts do not reflect peak evants. Our July 5 photos were taken batween 3:30 and 4:45 p.m. after the peak h beach use for the day. On July 5, 1987, 200,000 people s
attendad tha Pease Air Force Base aerial demonstration. Some of these peopla might otharwisa have visitad the baach. July 19, 1987 was just a no mal, hot summer weekend day, not a holiday or special evant 'a y . !
Sacond, becausa Ju. 'r 5 and July 19, 1987, ware busier days than August 11, 1985, tse parking patterns visibla in tha photographs reveal large nur aers of additional parking spaces which may not have been tvious to KLD in their inspection of the August 11, 1985 photographs. For +xample, we found cars parked along highways such as Highway 51, and in unpaved lots, !
grass shoulders, etc., often at a distanca from the beach which shows that thasa araas are usad for parking.
l' Third, it is likely that incraased use of tha baach !
araas has caused some araas that wera not usad for parking in 1985 to hava becoma parking spacas in 1987 We found avidence
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I' of at laast'two instancas of this in North Beach by comparing 1985 photographs with our 1987 photographs.
Finally, KLD may hava appliad the criteria for a parking spaca differently than we did. Wa used careful procedures, which we cross-checked between the three of us and our technical assistants. We were conservative in our interpretation of ambiguous parking spaces; wa did not count spaces which blocked any driveways that were not already I blocked in the photos. We tallied our spaces on sketch sheets, corresponding to the projectad photograph, which record every h H individual spaca counted to reduce the possibility of l ,
miscounting and make it possible to critically review aach image interpreted. However, because KLD chose to discard their work sheete, we ara unable to compare our interpretation with theirs on a space-by-space basis.
Q. Thank you very much.
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION' ,
Before Administrative Judges:
Helen P. Hoyt, Chairperson Gustave A. Linenberger, Jr.
Dr. Jerry Harbour l
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In the Matter of )
)
PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF NEW ) Docket.Nos.
HAMPSHIRE, ET AL. ) 50-443-444-OL
-(Seabrook Station, Units 1 and 2) ) (Off-site EP)
) September 14, 1987
)
ATTACHMENTS TO TESTIMONY OF COLIN HIGH, THOMAS J. ADLER AND WILLIAM A. BEFORT ON BEHALF OF THE ATTORNEY ,
GENERAL FOR THE COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS ON !
SAPL CONTENTION NO. 31, SAPL CONTENTION NO. 34 AND TOWN OF HAMPTON REVISED CONTENTION III Department of the Attorney General Commonwealth c': '4 massachusetts '
One Ashburton ul ce Boston, MA 02108-1698 (617) 727-2265 i
)
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.. UNITSD STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION ,
Before Administrative Judges:
Helen F. Hoyt, Chairperson Gustave A. Linenberger, Jr.
.Dr. Jerry Harbour
)
f
)
In the Matter of )
)
PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF NEW ) Docket Nos,,
HAMPSHIRE, ET AL. ) 50-443-444-OL ,
(Seabrook Station, Units 1 and 2) ) (Off-site EP) I
) September 14, 1987
)
i ATTACHMENTS TO TESTIMONY OF COLIN HIGH, THOMAS J. ADLER I AND WILLIAM A. BEFORT ON BEHALF OF THE ATTORNEY l GENERAL FOR THE COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS ON 1 SAPL CONTENTION NO. 31, SAPL CONTENTION NO. 34<
fI AND TOWN OF HAMPTON REVISED CONTENTION III .
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Department of the Attorney General Commonwealth of Massachusetts One Ashburton Place Boston, MA 02108-1698 ,
(617) 727-2265 i l
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ATTACHMENTS Attachment 1 Professional Qualifications of Colin J. High Attachment 2 Professional Qualifications of William A. Eefort Attachment 3 Professi~onal Qualificat;,ons of Thomas J. Adler
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RESUME COLIN J. HIGH Research Associate Professor Principal Thayer School of Engineering Resource Systems Group Dartmouth College Hanover, NH 03755 Route 5 South P.O. Box 1104 Norwich, VT 05055 DEGREES B.Sc. University of Bristol, England, 1965 Ph.D. University of Bristol, England, 1972 EDUCATION 1962-1965 University of Bristol, Special Honors Geography / Geology, Minor in Economics.
1965-1970 University of Bristol, Ph.D. program in Geomorphology. ' Thesis:
Aspects of the Solution Erosion of Limestones with a Special Consideration of Lithological Factors.
POSITIONS HELD 1979-Present Research Associate Professor of Engineering and Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH.
1973-1979 !
Assistant Professor of Geography, Columbia University, New York, New York.
1977 Research Associate in Engineering Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH.
1972 Visiting of Assistant Florida, Professor Gainesville, of Engineering Sefence, University Florida. ,
I 1968-1972 Lecturer in Geography', University of Ibadan, Nigeria.
1967 Project Manager, Hydrology Project. Jamaica. Supported by UN Development Program (3 months). l RESEARCH PROJECTS I 1985-88 Acid Deposition Monitoring on Mt. Moosilauke.
l Funded by USEPA Cooperative Agreement #CR 812438-01-0 $206,747 (1st year of 3 years) !
Principal Investigators:
Ryan (Environmental Studies) James Hornig, Colin High, and Douglas )
1985-86 Wood Energy Technology Conversion Assistence Program: Strategic Analysis and Program Evaluation Fucded by the Coalition of l Northeastern Governors and the U.S. doe. Contract $35,000 - (Thayer)
Principal Investigator: Colin High
l' t 2 J1985' , Test'of The Mountain Cloud Water Collector Funded.by New York Botanical Garden and the USEPA Grant: .$3,000- _-(3 months)-
Principal Investigators: Colin High and James Hornig l 1985 Economic Analysis of the: Impact of Wood Energy in The Northeast.
Funded by Coalition -of Northeast- Governors and the U.S. DOE Contract # DE-EF 05-830R21389 $59,993 (1 year)
Principal' Investigator:' Colin High 1983-84: Evaluation of major long-term environmental trends and emerging problems in New England.
Funded by U.S. EPA Grant.#CR-811187-01-0 $57,113 (1 year)
' Principal Investigator: ' Colin High (complete)
'1983-84 Wood Energy Forecasting Model for the United States Funded by U.S. Forest Service Grant _#FP-83-0570 .$45,634 (2 years)
Principal Investigator: Colin High (complete)'
.1983 Assessment of the Application of Remote Sensing Techniques in the Col-lection of Agricultural Statistics Funded by.U.S. Department of Agriculture Grant #58-319-V-3=0444X $37,096 (1 year)
Principal Investigator:- Colin High (complete) 1980-83 Analysis Support Service for Strategic Assessment and Special Studies.
Funded by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. )
Grant #CR808-12-01-4 $223,313 J Principal Investigator: Colin High (complete) )
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- 1980-82 Assessment of the Environment.al Impact of Biomass Energy Systems in New England. j Funded by' Northeast Solar' Energy Center (U.S. DOE) 1 Grant #79-9-007 $133,135 (2 years) I
?rincipal Investigator: Colin High (complete) 1980-0) National Biomass Energy Program Environmental Assessment.-
Funded by U.S. DOE / North East Solar Energy Center Grant #80-10-003 $21,246 Principal Investigators: Colin High and William Lockeretz, Tufts Uni- ,
versity (complete) )
1979 Environmental Assessment of the Impacts of Large Scale Mechanized harvesting on Vermont's Forest.
Funced by State of Vermont. I Grant'#5766215 $i0,000 )
Principal Investigator: Colin High (complete) 1978-80 Environmental Impact Assessment of a Wood-Fired Electric Power Plant in Maine.
Funded by U.S. DOE
j 3 -1 Contract #PO 1899-4, 21-1899-101 $350,000
- Principal; Investigators: Colin High and Charles Hewett (complete)-
1977-78: Study of. the Feasibility of' a Wood-Fired Electric Power Plant in !
Vermont Funded by the State of Vermont and the Department of Commerce '4 Grant # DOC 01-6-06159 $39,500 1 Principal Investigators: Colin High and Charles Hewett (complete)
-1977 Assessment of the Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data for Agricul-L tural and Forest Land Use Modeling.
-Funded by NASA $25,000 Principal Investigators: Colin High and Dennis Meadows (complete) 1975-77 Use'of Remote Sensing Techniques for Agro-Environmental Studies.
Funded by NASA grant to Columbia University Grant #: $180,000 (3 years)
Principal Investigators: Colin High. Jerry Coiner and Sam Goward (complete) 1973 Modeling the Ef fects of Nuclear Power Plant Construction on the j Crystal River Estuary Florida.
Funded by a grant from the Florida Power Corporation to the University of Florida Principal Investigator: Howard T. Odum, University of Florida. H TEACHING Courses Taught: Present.
1 The Earth as an Ecosystem - an introduction to environmental science (ENVS 2)
Energy and Resources (ENVS/ GEOG 12)
'l Environmental Policy Formulation (ENVS 50)
Seminar on the Environmental Problems of Kenya (Foreign Study - ENVS 84)
Environmental issues in East Africa (Foreign Study - ENVS 40)
Resource Systems (ENGG 177 - graduate) ]
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Courses Taught: Past i l
Resource Policy (ENGG 178 - graduate) )
Agricultural - Forestry Policy (ENGG 179 - graduate)
- Physical Geography Geomorphology !
Hydrology Statistical Methods in Geography Biogeography (graduate)
-Models in Resource Management (graduate)
Other Teaching' Activities:
Advisor to five MALS students
' Director of the Environmental Studies Kenya Foreign Studies Pregram 1983-84 j Member of the Faculty Steering Committee of Environmental Studies J Adjunct Member of the Faculty of the Department of Geography l- l 1
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4 Member of the , faculty of the New England Studies ' Institute of the MALS program' supported by a grant from the National Endowment for the Humanities Formerly advisor and examiner for 14 MS, D Phill and Ph.D. candidates in Geography and Geology at Columbia University Formerly.a member of the Undergraduate Committee on Instruction'and Student ~
Petitions Committee at Columbia University Formerly member of- the Admissions _ Committee for the Graduate ' Program in Geography at Columbia University PROFESSIONAL AND PUBLIC SER,VICE ACTIVITIES
'1985-86 Consultant to Town of Sherburne . Vermont on Environmental Trends and Growth.
1985-86 Consu2+ent to New Hampshire Attorney General for.Public Hearings on the Environmental Impact of the Construction and Operation of a 450 kv DC Electric Pcwer Transmission Line from Commerford, NH to Massachusetts.
1985-86 Member Technical Advisory Board of the Coalition of Northeastern Governors' Regional Biomass Program.
1983-84' Chairman of the Steering Committee of the' Council'of North Eastern Governors. Biomass Energy Project which advises the council on the ex-penditure of $1 million per year on biomass research and development in the northeast.
1982-83 Member of the Vermont Natural Resource Council Panel on the effects of the high voltage electric power line from Quebec to Comerford passing through northern Vermont. Prepared the VNRC position and response to the Draft Environmental' Impact Statement.
1983 Advisor to EPA Region 1 in'the preparation of the New England annual
" Environmental Management Report." This is the major planning and budget justification activity for EPA regions.
1982 Consultant to the New York State Commission on Tug Hill for planning forest management programs.
1982 consultant to Evergreen Energy Corporation on the environmental l effects of a wood to methanol conversion plant. {
1981 Consultant to the New Hampshire Governors Energy Council Study on the j feasibility of producing methanol from wood in the state.
j 1981 Reviewer for the NSF Science for Citizens Program proposals.
1981 Member ot' the Advisory Panel for the New York State Adirondack Park l
Agency Land Use and Forest Practice Review.
1981 Consultant for the U.S. Congressional Office of Technology Assessment 011 Shale Study.
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!1980' Consultant for the U.S. Congressional' Office of Technology Assessment-Energy from Biological Processes Study.
1980 ' Consultant for the Argonne National Laboratory Residential Wood Energy Program Plan.
1980 Consultant for the Northern Community Investment Corporation feasibil-ity study of a wood chip pelletization plant in New Hampshire.
1980 Reviewer for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Biomass Environmental Assessment Study.
1980 Consultant to the MITRE Corporation and the Tennessee Valley Authority
-Wood Energy Program.
1980 External Reviewer for the Antioch College Community Wood Energy Study.
1980 Expert witness for the city of Winooski at the Vermont Public Service Board . hearing on a permit application by Burlington Electric Power Department to construct a wood-fired power plant in Burlington.
1979' Consultant to Mittelhauser Corporation for a wood energy health and rafety study.,
1978 Expert witness for.the State of California Energy Research and.Devel-opment Agency at public hearings on Pacific Gas and Electric Co. plans to use-renewable energy resources for power generation.
1977' Consultant to the Wheelabrator Frye Corporation for assistance in pre-paration of a major biomass energy development program proposal to'the U.S. DOE.
PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTED PAPERS.(partial list)
Forecasts of Industrial and Commercial Wood Energy Use 1985-2000 in preparation for Journal of Forestry Products Research.
Economic Impact of Wood Energy Use in the Northeastern States, in preparation for Energy Policy.
Economic Impact of Wood Energy Use in the Northeastern States: Technical Report
,and Appendix. Coalition of Northeast Governors, Washington, DC., 1986 (in -
press) l l
Region I: Assessment of Environmental Trends and Emerging Problems in the New England Reglon. USEPA Report. Final publication pending. {
Preliminary Projections of Industrial Wood Energy Consumption in the U.S.
-(4 volumes - 1 f or_. each Forest Service Region) U.S. Forest Service Report.
Final' publication pending. 1 Environmental Assessment of the Department of Energy Biomass Energy Program with William Lockeretz and others. U.S. Department of Energy (1982). {
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6 Wood Energy in the United States. Annual Review of Energy, vol. 6, 1981, with Charles Hewett, Norman Marshall, and Robin Wildermuth.
Improvements to the Micro-Erosion Meter. With S. Trudgill and F.K. Hanna.
British Geomorphological Research Group Technical Bulletin No. 29. pp. 3-17, 1981.
The Wood Resource and Its Use for Energy in the United States. Proceedings 1981 International Conference __on Residential Solid Fuels, pp. 670-679. Portland, Oregon, 1981.
An Environmental Report on an Advanced System Demonstration for Utilization of Biomass an an Energy Source in Westbrook, Maine. With others. Division for Biomass Energy Systems, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 1980.
Environmental Aspects of Wood Energy Conversion. With Charles Hewett. Pro-ceedings of U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Control Symposium, Washington, D.C., November 28-30, 1978.
The Construction and Operation of Small, Dispersed, Wood-fired Power Plants in New England. With Charles Hewett. Report prepared as testimony for the California State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission, under Contract #500-144, 1978.
Evaluation of Locations for a 50-Mw Wood-fired Power Plant in Northern Vermont.
Report for Vermont State Energy Office, under Grant #01-6-01659 from the U.S.
Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration, 1978.
The Feasibility of Operating a 50-Mw Wood-fired Power Plant in Northern Vermont:
Uood Availability and Siting Potential. With Charles Hewett. Report prepared for the Vermont State Energy Office under Grant #01-6-01659 from the U.S.
Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration, 1978.
3 Application of Digital Analysis of MSS Data to Agro-Environmental Studies. With J.C. Coiner and K.E. Webb. Three reports of studies under NASA Grant NSG080, )
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National Technical Information Service, 1976, 1977 and"1978.
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l Environmental Impacts of Harvesting Non-commercial Wood for Energy: Research Programs. DSD #101, Resource Policy Center, Thayer School of Engineering, Hanover, N.H. Paper presented at U.S. Department of Energy Workshop on research needs to determine environmental and soil productivity effects of residue removal from agronomic and silviculture crops. University of Illinois, Oct.
1977.
1 Digital Processing of LANDSAT Data for the Survey of Rural Land Use in the West
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African Savannah. With H. Wilson. Presented at the Association of American Geographers Conference, New York, April 1976.
Monitoring Tropical Land Cover Dynamics From Remotely Sensed Geographic Data.
With J.C. Coiner. Proceedings 23rd International Geographical Congress, Moscow, 1976.
i Cround Level Rain Gauge Catch at Ibadan, Nigeria, Weather, 29 (10): pp. 384-386. With J.S. Oguntoyinbo '(1974).
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- 7 Rainfall,' Drought and^ Food Supply in South-western Nigeria, Savanna, 2.(2): pp.
115-120. With J.S. Oguntoyinbo and P. Richards 1973.
Land Evaluation Studies with Special Reference to Nigeria, in K.M. Barbour, ed.,
Planning ' for Nigeria: A Geographical Approach (Ibadan, Nigeria: Ibadan University Press, 1972).
Anomalous Relationships between Meander Wave-lengths and Passage Width for Three Irish Caves, discussion paper 'American Journal of Science, vol. 169, pp. 494-496 (1970).
A Method for the Direct Measurement of Erosion on Rock Surfaces," British'Geo-
' morphological Research Group Technical Bulletin, No. 5, 24'pp. With F.K. Hanna-(1970).-
Planning ' and the Natural Environment, Nigerian Opinion 6 (5-7): pp. 60-64.
With A. Faniran and J.S. Oguntoyinbo (1970).
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[ NAME:- Befort, William A. DATE: September, 1987 )
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TITLE:; Assistant Professor DEPARTMENTS Forest Resources I h , OFFICE:- 207 James' Hall, University of New Hampshire, Durham NH 03824, 603/862-3948 DATE AND PLACE OF BIRTH: 2 Dec 1941, Red Wing, Minnesota j
HOME' ADDRESS: 11 Riverbend.Rd., Newmarket NH 03857, 659-6736 ,
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[, ' EDUCATION BEYOND'HIGH SCHOOL:
j '. B.A.11964,: University of Minnesota, Journalism -
-B.S. 1974,. University of Minnesota, Forest Resources
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l M'.S. 1977, University of Idaho, Forest Management 1Ph.D. 1984, University of Idaho
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t .LANG AGES: Read French, German, Spanish H EXPERIENCE:-
p.
In educational institutions since bachelor's degree:
Teaching and'research 1975-77 Teaching Assistant, Aerial Photo Interpretation, University of Idaho 1979-82 Resea.rch Associate on leave from U.S.
Forest Service, University of Idaho 1982 Instructor, Remote Sensing, College of l
Natural Resources, Humboldt State L University, Arcata CA 1983- Assistant Professor, Forest Resources, present University of New Hampshire L Extension and service
'1979-82 Instructor to U.S. Forest Service personnel in use of aerial photography 4
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Oth'er Professional 1977 Forester (airphoto research),. State of e .
Idaho-7' ,
1977. Forest'er (field),. State of> Minnesota e 3 1977-79 District Timber Manager,. Challis l l National' Forest, Clayton ID o 1 Other c 1968-70 Copy Editor, Tulsa Tribune, Tulsa OK
.:1971 Information Specialist, Northern States Power Co., Minneapolis, MN 1964-67. U.S. Army, enlisted n.
PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS AND REPORTS Ulliman, J.J.,'P.J. Murphy and W.A. Befort. 1975. 1:15840 topographic map of experimental forest, College of Forestry,-Wildlife and Range Sciences, University.of Idaho, Moscow, 1 sheet.-
Befort, W.A.,'R.C. Heller and J.J. U111 man. 1976. Land uso maps'of Idaho, 1:250,000 scale, from Landsat satellite H , imagery. Pacific Northwest Regional Commission, Boise ID.
y 20 sheets.
. 1977. Idaho land use mapping f rom Landsat transparencies. Station Note 28, Forest, Wildlife and
. Range Exp. Sta., University of Idaho, Moscow.~4p.
.. 1977. Airphoto guide to forest cover types of west central Idaho. Report to Pacific Northwest Regional Commission / Idaho Dept. of Lands,' Boise. 144p. & photo
. volume tables.
. 1980.- Viewing and handling panoramic aerial photographs. Tech. Rep. 7, Forest, Wildlife and Range Exp.
Sta.,. University.of Idaho, Moscow. 16p.
. 1980.. Updating forest road maps with panoramic aerial photography. Tech. Rep. 12, Forest, Wildlife and Range Exp. Sta., University of Idaho, Moscow. lip.
. 1980. -Ground resolution of high altitude 1 photographs. Station Note 36, Forest, Wildlife and Range Exp. Sta.,. University of Idaho, Moscow. 4p.
Befort, W.A., B.L. Kessler and H.N. Anderson. 1981. Stand density estimationLon panoramic transparencies. Photogram.
Eng, and Remote Sens. 47: 1477-1481.
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Befort, W.A. _1981. Simplified field viewer for panoramic transparencies. Tech. Rep. 14, Forest, Wildlife and Range Exp. Sta., University of Idaho, Moscow. 4p.
l . 1981. ' Forestry uses of high altitude photography-progress and pitfalls in " technology transfer". Proc. I XVII Int. Un. of For. Res. Orgs. World Congr., Kyoto.
Div. 6:211-224.
I 1982.
- Befort, W.A. and J.J. Ulliman. Dot-grid area measurement on panoramic photographs. Photogram. Eng. and Remote Sens. 48:755-759.
Befort, W.A. 1982. Large scale aerial photo guide to forest habitat types of northern Idaho and eastern Washington.
Annex to Ph.D. diss., College of Forestry, Wildlife and .
Range Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow. 47p. j
. 1983. Aerial photo interpretation of forest habitat types. Ph.D. diss., College of Forestry, Wildlife and Range Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow. 206p.
Befort, W.A. and J.J. Ulliman. 1985. Aerial photo identification of forest habitats. Tech. Pap. Sist Ann.
Mtg., Am. Soc. Photogramm., Falls Church VA. pp. 679-688.
Befort, W.A. 1985. One step above ground truth: airphoto keys for large-scale vegetation analysis. Proc. 5th Int. I Geosci. and Remote Sens. Symp., IEEE, New York, NY.
pp. 278-283.
. 1985. Methods for analysis of aerial photo and ground-measured tree mortality data from Whiteface Mountain study area. Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Las Vegas, NV. 14p.
. 1985. Bibliography: spruce / fir decline, 4
atmospheric deposition, and aerial photographic assessment of tree damage. Report to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Las Vegas, NV. 31p.
. 1985. Large-scale sampling photography for forest habitat type identification. Photogramm. Eng. and Remote Sens. 52:101-108.
i 1987. Land use Befort, W.A., A.E. Luloff and M. Morrone.
change: Strafford County, New Hampshire, 1953-1982. Res.
Rep. 111, Agricultural Experiment Station, University of N.H. 31p.
. 1987. Land use change: Rockingham County, New Hampshire, 1953-1982. Res. Rep. 112, Agricultural Experiment Station, University of N.H. 54p.
Befort, W.A. 1987. Interpretation of Aerial Photographs, ed.
4, T.E. Avery and G.L. Berlin (review). J. For. 85(6):51 Befort, W.A., and K.S. Evans. 1987. A test of aerial scanner imagery in timber type mapping. No. J . Appl. For. (in press).
AWARDS 1987 Autometric Award for superior publication in imagery interpretation.
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Rdsumd THOMAS JAY ADLER Resource Systems Group Route 5 South P.O. Box 1104 Norwich, VT 05055 802-649-1999 Born: August 22,1950; Portland, ME EDUCATION B.S. Cornell University (Civil & Environment Engineering),1972 S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Transponation Systems),1975 Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Transponation Systems),1976 PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE 1986 - Present President, Resource Systems Group; Principal in Charge for transportation projects.
1984 - 1986 Research Associate Professor of Engineering, Thayer School of Engineering, Danmouth College. Coordinator of Master of Science Program in Resource Systems at the Resource Policy Center. Graduate and undergraduate instruction in transponation, resource policy, systems modeling, and engineering sciences.
Principal investigator on numerous sponsored projects.
1982 - 1984 Acting Director, Resource Policy Center, and Associate Professor of Engineering, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College; Adjunct Associate Professor of Policy Studies, Danmouth College, 1976 - 1982 Assistant Professor of Engineering, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, 1975 - 1986 Independent transponation consultant for state, regional and local agencies. i Transportation consultant for Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Kendall Square Bldg., Cambridge, MA; consulting on various national transportation research projects.
1975 - 1976 Research Fellow, Joint Center for Urban Studies of Harvard and M.I.T.
Involved in intenlisciplinary program of urban studies. I 1973 - 1976 Rt search and teaching, Transportation Systems Division, M.I.T. Primary l research on U.S. DOT contract to M.I.T. entitled " Experiments to Clarify l Priorities in Urban Travel Demand Forecasting Research and Development." l i
1972 - 1973 Research Assistant, Transportation Systems Division, M.I.T. Research on U.S. l DOT (Transponation Systems Center) contract to M.I.T. to study the computer requirements of a transportation research agency.
1971 - 1972 Civil engineering consultant, Carrol E. Taylor and Associates, Auburn, ME.
Responsible for the development of computer software for the analysis of stmetural and waste water collection systems.
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Adier R6 sum 6 - PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES Transponation Research Board. Member and Incorporator, Intemational Network of Resource Information Centers (INRIC). Member, American Society of Civil Engineers, American Society for Engineering Education.
AWARDS AND HONORARY SOCIETIES Chi Epsilon, Civil Engineering Honomry Society Sigma Xi, Scientific Honorary Society Catherine B. Wurster Fellow, Joint Center for Urban Studies of Harvard and M.I.T.
PUBLICATIONS
" Formulation of Travel Demand Modeling Requirements", with J. Bottom. Working Paper DOT-WP-1, Transponation Systems Divisiou, M.I.T.,1973.
"A Joint Choice Model of Social-Recreational Travel", with M.E. Ben-Akiva. Working Paper DOT-WP-10, Transportation Systems Division, M.I.T.,1975.
" Comparison of Two Travel Demand Modeling Systems: The M.I.T. Disaggregate Behavioral Models and the Urban Transponation Model System", with M.E. Ben-Akiva.
Working Paper DOT-WP-13, Transportation Systems Division, M.I.T.,1975.
Experiments to Clarify Priorities in Urban TravelForecasting Research andDevelopment:
Summary Report, with M.E. Ben- Akiva and J. Jacobson. Prepared for U.S. DOT contract with M.I.T., DOT-OS-30120,1976.
Modeling Non IVork Travel Patterns. Center for Transportation Studies (CTS) Report, M.I.T., Cambridge, MA,1976.
" Joint-Choice Model for Frequency, Destination, and Travel Mode for Shopping Trips",
with M.E. Ben-Akiva. Transportation Research Record #369, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.,1976.
"Disaggregate Models of Trip Distribution", with S.R. Lerman,in Behavioral Travel-Demand Models. Lexington Books, D.C. Heath and Co., Lexington, MA,1976.
"A Theoretical and Empirical Model of Trip Chaining Behavior", with M.E. Ben-Akiva, Transportation Research, Series B, Methodology,13B, pp. 243 257,1979.
The Direct and Indirect Costs of Transporting \Vood Chips to Supply a \Vood-Fired Power Plant, with M. Blakey and T. Meyer; repon submitted to the U.S. Department of Energy lolar/ Biomass Division under Contract EG-77-C-0204487, DSD #103, February 1978.
" Directions for Improvements in Urban Travel Forecasting Procedures", with M. E. Ben-Akiva and S. Lerman; in Conference Summary and \Vhite Papers, U.S. Department of Transportation,1979.
Techniquesfor Analyzing the Performance ofRural Transit Systems, Vols.1 & II, with S.R. Stearns and YJ. Stephanedes, prepared for U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Special Project Adminstration under Contract DOT /OS/80006, September 1979.
AdlerR6 sum 6 "ENTRANS: A Model of the Interactions Between Energy Supply and Transportation Energy Use," in Proceedings of the Summer Computer Simulation Conference,1979.
"Disaggregate Models for Decisions Other Than Travel Mode Choice," in New Horizons in Travel. Behavior Research, W. Brog and P. Stopher, eds.,1980.
" Forecasting Experiments for Rural Transit Policymakers," with Y. Stephanedes, Transportation Research Record #718, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.,
1979.
Interactions Between Energy Supply and Transportation Related Energy Use, Vol.1, with J. Ison and J. Geinzer, final report submitted to U.S. DOT under Contract DOT /RC/82003, DSD #182, January 1980.
Interactions Between Energy Supply and Transpcitation-Related Energy Use, Vol.11 Technical Appendices, with J. Ison and J. Geinzer, final report submitted to U.S. DOT under Contract DOT /RC/82003, DSD #183, January 1980.
" Analysis of Long-Term Transportation Energy Use," with J.W. Ison, Transportation Research Record #801,1981.
Analysis of Transponation Energy Conservation Policies Using the ENTRANS Model, with J.W. Ison, Solar Energy Research Institute report, January 1981.
Guide to Forecasting TravelDemand with Direct Utility Assessment, with G.A. Kocur and others, U.S. DOT, Urban Mass Transit Administration, Report UMTA-NH-11-0001-82-1, September 1982.
Transportation of U.S. Coal Through Eastern Ports, with F.W. Lipfett and others, Report prepared for U.S. DOE under contract DE-AC01-81FE-20036, September 1982.
TechnicalReview of the ORNL Highway Gasoline Demand Model, report DE-AC01-81El-11976, U.S. Depanment of Energy, Energy Information Administration, February 1982.
"Long-Term Effects of Auto Fuel Efficiency Regulation," presented at TIMS/ORSA Joint National Meeting, Detroit, Spring 1983.
"Use of Microcomputers for Resource Planning," presented at Second Annual Meeting of the Balaton Group, Csopak, Hungary, September 1983.
Paratransit Planning System PARAS Cost Model Description, with H. Hazard, DSD #495, U.S. DOT Report UMTA-NH-06-0002-1, January 1983.
Low Density Transit Planning Package, with S. Tahmosh and M. Burton, turnkey PASCAL, software system, distributed by U.S. DOT UMTA, February 1984.
" Review of Recent Advances in Travel Demand Analysis," Transportation Science, V.18, N. 3, August 1984.
An Analysis of Wood Transport Systems: Costs and ExternalImpacts, USDA Forest Service Report 23-729, March 1985.
A Review of FORECASTS, with D.L. Meadows, prepared for Defense Communications Agency, September 1985.
J Adier Resume 4 u . COURSES TAUGHT DARTMOUTH COLLEGE:
GraduateLevel Transportation Systems Analysis Transportation Engineering Travel Demand Forecasting Models in the Policy Process Probability and Statistics Optunizanon
~ Modeling ConsumerChoices Resoume Models UndergraduateLevel Introduction to ComputerScience Engineering Economics and Optimization Optimization Applied to Environmental Engineering Modeling Complex Systems MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY:
Travel Demand Forecasting (S ummer course for practicing professionals)
SUMMARY
OF MAJOR FUNDED PROJECTS 1
Travel Demand Model Estimation Using Direct Utility Assessment Funded by Pennsylvania High Speed Rail Commission, Peat.Marwick and Mitchell, Pinellas and Hillsboro County (Florida) and Florida DOT 1
1986 - pasent Resour:e Systems Group is actively working with several clients to develop travel demand ;
estimation models for major transportation projects including high speed passenger rail systems, urban transit systems and ride-shanng programs. i, i
Resiew of Trave? Demand Estimation Procedures i Fur.ded by Ohio Department of Transportation 1986 - present i
L Resource Systems Group has an ongoing contract as a reviewer of modeling methods for the Ohio Depanment of Transportation, Rail Division.
FORECASTS ModelReview and Revision 1 Funded by Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Department of Defense 1985 - present The FORECASTS model, an unclassified global for casting model,is being reviewed and substantially revised by a project team including staff of Resource Systems Group and faculty of the Naval Postgraduate School.
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l The Effects ofAcidRain Concentration on Structures: A Damage Function Approach Funded by U.S. EPA through the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory January - June 1984 This project developed statistical and simulation models to describe the effects of acid min on stmetures. The objective was to quantify this component of the costs associated with increased acidity of precipitation.
Analysis ofAlternative Wood Transport Systems Funded by U.S. Forest Service, Washington, D.C.
October 1982 - September 1984 In the recent past, there have been significant increases in the use of wood as both a residential and commercial energy source. Both the delivered price of wood fuel and the impacts of this wood use depend heavily on the wood transport system. This study reviewed and empirically evaluated existing systems in and effon to develop guidelines for new systems.
Technical Review of the Oak Ridge NationalInboratory's (ORNL) Highway Gasoline Demand Model Funded by U.S. DOE, Energy Information Administration (EIA) through Science Management Corporation, Landover, MD i
November 1981 - March 1982 The ORNL model was the only one available which forecasted state-level gasoline demand.
The U.S. DOE, EIA requested this study at the Thayer School to Review the technical adequacy of the model and to suggest ways in which the model structure could be improved. The model sectors (new car demand, auto scrappage, gasoline demand, fuel efficiency, and new technology) were reviewed in detail and a report suggesting several major structural changes was prepared.
Integrated Paratransit Planning Methods Funded by U.S. DOT, Washington, D.C.
October 1981 - April 1984 With George A.Kocur This project developed a microcomputer-based planning system for small-city and specialized transit systems. Extended performance, cost and ridership models were developed in a structured, goal-oriented computer environment.
Strategic Assessment ofFossil Energy Options, Phase 11 Funded by U.S. DOE, Washington, D.C.
September 1981 - April 1983 With George A.Kocur This continuation of previous work at Thayer School for the DOE Fossil Energy Division included an analysis of specific current and future fossil energy and uses. Pan of the study was an evaluation of the effects of transponation on the long-term competitiveness of U.S.
coal in the world market. Costs and capacities of U.S. inland transponation systems, transshipment (pon) facilities, ocean trans xntation, and foreign inland transponation systems were compiled to suppon the ana ysis. A second pan of the study was an analysis of the effects of changing cmde oil prices on the domestic diesel engine market. For this
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i analysis, a model was developed which repmsented the effects of changes in diesel fuel l price on diesel engine demand.
Performance Standards and Fare Policiesfor Urban Mass Transit Systems Funded by U.S. DOT, Washington, D.C.
July 1980 - J.ily 1983 With George A.Kocur This study developed optimal bus transit system designs for a series of objectives which might be held by a local transit system. The results were given as closed-form expressions ,
into which local pare. meter values were substituted to find the best system for a given city ;
and given objecoves. The equations gave desired average values of route spacing, stop spacing, headway, mute length and fare levels. Warrants for express service and aniculated buses were also developed. The second phase of the project developed manuals '
for transit operators and planners to implement these designs and wanants.
Direct Utility Atisessment Funded by U.S. DOT, Washington, D.C.
August 1980- November 1982 This project developed techniques and a handbook for using experimental designs and survey techriques to analyze market responses to transponanon innovations. The work combined aspects of discrete pmbabilistic choice models and experimental psychology to analyze situations that are difficult to treat with either alone.
Transportation / Energy Policy Sutdy i Funded by the Solar Energy Research Ir,stitute Contract No. AB 0-4301-1 March 1980- September 1980 This study used a transportation / energy forecasting model (ENTRANS) developed at the Thayer School of Engineering to detennine the long-range effectiveness of various energy conservation measums. The effort's primary client was SERI's Transportation Task Force, which was responsible for developing quantitative estimates of gasoline consumption levels as input to the Institute's general solar conservation study. In addition, the results were useful to, and directly used by, the several other federal agencies involved in transportation and energy policy-making. The specific policies analyzed included: auto I
fuel efficiency mandates, gasoline taxes, auto excise taxes, and public transit investment. -
Interactions between National Energy Supply and Transportation-Related Energy Consumption Funded by U.S. DOT Contract DOT-RC 82003 September 1978 - January 19D Rapid depletion of domestic oil and gas reserves will have a major effect on the price and availability of energy over the next few decades. The transponation sector will not benefit significantly from a national shift to use of coal and nuclear electrical generation because almost all of the transportation use is currently in the form ofliquid fuel. The purpose of this research was to analyze transportation policies, such as construction of public transit facilities and development of electric cars, in terms of theirlong-range impacts on the use of transportation services and en the consumption of energy. The effects of time delay on the implementation of transportation technologies were analyzed. Interactions between energy supplies and transportation-related energy use were incorporated in a computer model used by the U.S. DOT m its policy analyses.
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i Analysis ofProductivity and Efficiency ofRural Transit Systems \
Funded by U.S. DOT, Office of the Secretary, Contract DOT-OS-70079 i l September 1977 - April 1979 )
1 The availability of public transit systems in rural areas has generally declined over the past ;
two decades. Major new federal programs, however, are beginning to provide money for '
support of existing or proposed rural transit systems. This research will determine how these systems can be designed so as to be maximally effective in pmviding transportation service. In working toward this objective, detailed case studies and statistical studies are being conducted to relate productivity and efficiency with different design factors. In addition, a general simulation model is being developed to trace a transit system's evolution over time, given different design strategies.
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