ML20245J773

Revised Testimony of Cj High on Behalf of Jm Shannon,Atty General for Commonwealth of Ma Re JI-56 (Monitoring Rate).* Evacuee Loads Could Possibly Be Higher than Estimates.W/ Certificate of Svc.Related Correspondence

ML20245J773
Person / Time
Site:	Seabrook
Issue date:	06/27/1989
From:	High C MASSACHUSETTS, COMMONWEALTH OF, RESOURCE SYSTEMS GROUP
To:
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ML20245J759	List: ML20245J755 ML20245J773
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OL, NUDOCS 8907030157
Download: ML20245J773 (14)

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=U5NPC UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.s IN 29 ' P4 :15 NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD 1

9.n; Before ti.e Administrative Judges:

Ivan W. Smith, Chairperson Dr. Richard Cole q

u Kenneth A. McCollom I

l

)

In the Matter of

)

Docket Nos.

)

50-443-OL PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF

)

50-444-OL l

NEW UAMPSHIRE, et al.

)

(Off-site EP)

(Set. brook Station, Units 1 and 2)

)

2

)

June 27., 1989 i

1 REVISED TESTIMONY OF DR. COLIN J. HIGH ON BEHALF OF JAMES M.

SHANNON, ATTORNEY GENERAL FOR THE j

COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS 4

CONCERNING_CONTENTTON JI-56 (Monitoring Rate) 1 I

.I Department of the Attorney General Commonwealth of Massachusetts l

One Ashburton Place 3

Boston, Massachusetts 02108-1698 (617) 727-2200 i

i 8907030157 890627

[

PDR ADOCK 05000443.

T PDR r

. L - _ '- _ - _ _ -.. - - -. - _. - - _ _ _ _ _. - - - _ - - _ _ - - _ _. _ _. _ _. _. _ -. _.

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SUMMARY

OF TESTIMONY

(

l In this revised testimony, Dr. Colin High, an expert in the

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i area of air photo interpretation, survey techniques, and I

statistical methods, uses the "20% formula" set forth in the NHRERP PID at 55.19 to estimate the number of people who, for l

planning purposes, can be expected to arrive for monitoring at the SPMC's two reception centers.

This revised testimony is j

i intended to lay a foundation for JI-56, which cha11anges the j

i SPMC's ability to achieve a monitoring rate that will permit the ORO to monitor 20% of the total population within 12

)

I hours.

The' calculations reported in this testimony have been revised tv tse certain inputs to the "20% formula" which the Board has ruled are res judicata, i.e., (1) the town clerk perncnent residents data and (2) data for the Massachusetts beach area evacuees which is based on an assumption that there are 31,000 vehicles in the EPZ beach areas.

II.

IDENTIFICATION OF WITNESS Q.1.

What is your name and current occupation?

A.l.

My name is Colin J. High and I am a Principal of Resources Systems Group, Inc., of Norwich, Vermont.

Q.2.

What are your professional qualifications?

A.2.

In addition to my work at Resources Systems Group I am also Research Professor of Environmental Studies at Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH.

I hold BS and Ph.D.

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degrees in Geography and Geology from the University of.

Bristol, England.

I have received formal undergraduate and graduate training in air photo interpretation, survey techniques.and statistical methods.

I have been an instructor in geography, air photo interpretation, remote sensing and statistical methods at the university-level.

I have 23 years experience in the use of air photographs and. statistical surveys in transportation, la,nd use studies,-site evaluation and environmental science...I have received grants and contracts from NASA, the U.f. Department of Energy, and the U.S.

First Service wh' h involves the use of air photography and statistical analysis.

A copy'of my curriculum vitate is on file in the proceeding.

It is Attachment 1 to the testimony which I presented to the Board for the hearing on the'NHRERP, December 1, 1987 (Vol. Tr. 6849).

III.

TESTIMONY I

i 0.3.

What is the purpose of your testimony?

I A.3.

This testimony is designed to lay the foundation needed i

to assess the ability of the SPMC to achieve a monitoring rate that enables the New Hampshire Yankee I

Offsite Response Organization ("NHY-ORO") to monitor 20%

of the total resident'and transient population within a 12 hour1.388889e-4 days <br />0.00333 hours <br />1.984127e-5 weeks <br />4.566e-6 months <br /> period.

My testimony provides an estimate of i

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the number of persons that, using the "20% method" l

described in Section 5.19 of the Board's NHRERP PID, may i

be expected to arrive at the monitoring trailers at'the i

SPMC's reception centers in. North Andover and Beverly during and after an evacuation of the Massachusetts part i

s of the Seabrook EPZ, under peak population conditions,

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on hot summer days at midweek and weekends.

0.4.

What is the method you'used to make this estimate?

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A.4.

The mathematical formula used in this case for

{

estimating the reception center load is that formula j

which is described-ii the Board's NHRERP PID, section 5.19 at page 74 as follows:

Evacuee Load = (0.20 x (PP -SFP -TDP) & TDP

\\-

Where:

PP= Sum of the peak population for i

the assigned communities:-

e SFP=Special facilities ~ population of the assigned communities-TDP-Transit dependent population of the assigned' communities.

0.5.

Please describe the data used in this calculation.

A.S.

The data.was obtained in the following way The resident population and summer midweek

-n n-resident (trancient) populations assigned to both North Andover and Beverly were calculated from latest available town Clerk derived data provided by the applicants in a memorandum of a record of telephone conversations dated 12/6/88 from Tom Rigney. 'The.

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l summer weekend non-resident population assigned to North Andover and, e summer midweek non-resident

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population assigned to North Andover and Beverly were calculated from Table 3.6-1 of Section 6 of the SPMC.

1 The summer weekend non-resident population of f

q communities assigned to'Beverly include substantial number of visitors at the beaches of Plum-Island and Salisbury.

The estimated non-resident population of I

the Salisbury beaches and Plum Island beaches which are assigned to Beverly are 9alculated by using the Board's finding that reasorablyexpectable. peak vehicle population of thr, beach area of the EPZ for planning' purposes is 31,000 (PID 59.12) and then'

)

applying the propor!; ion of the total vehicles in the EPZ beach areas.w;.ich are normally found at Salisbury and Plum Island beaches.

Using the vehicle counts-i based on air photography interpretation in beach areas made by KLD and reported in Volume 6 of the NHRERP at E-5 and the counts reported in the testimony of Befort, Adler and High (Vol. Tr. 6849), I calculated that on average 40% of the total number of vehicles in the EPZ heach areas are at Salisbury and Plum' Island. beaches on hot summer weekends.

Therefore, using.31,000 as q

the maximum EPZ beach area vehicles estimate times 40%,-I calculate the maximum number of vehicles at

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4 Salisbury and Plum. Island beaches to be 12,400.

Using the vehicle occupancy rate of 2.4 (NHRERP Vol. 6 at 2-12), this gives a maximum beach population of 29,760 to.be assigned to Beverly.

However, in order to eliminate the double counting of residents who are at.

the beach,.the weekend beach population is reduced by.

7% based on the estimates of. residents.at,the beach given in NHRERP Vol. 6, Appendix M.

The reduced weekend estimate used.is 27,677 persons.

For the Beverly reception center the non-beach transients and-j non-beach employees from outside the EPZ are then added to the combined beach and t ermanent resident populations.

These non-beach populations are taken from the NHRERP Vol. 6, Appfndix M, pp. 1-2,with the vehicle occupahtcy rates of 2.4 and 1.16 applied for I

_q transients and employees respectively.

The non-residents of the communities assigned to North Andover are calculated from the data given in Table 3.6-l'of Section 3.6 of the SPMC.

The ' transit dependent populations were taken from Table 11-7 of Volume'6 of the NHRERP; and'special

. facilities populations of the assigned communities are taken from PSNH Intra-company business memo from B.

Bovino to D.-Tailleart dated January'13, 1989 (a memorandum obtained through' discovery by the Massachusetts Attorney General)..That memo appears to use special facility population. data which.are more

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current-than the data reported in'the SPMC.(Amend. 6).

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Q.6.-

What are the results of your calculation using the method and data that you have described?

A.6.

The estimates for the monitoring trailer evacuee loads reporting for monitoring at-the SPMC's. reception ~

centers in North Andover and Beverly are given in the-following table.

Please note that these load estimates are for the monitoring trailers; the special facility populations, who are to be monitored in their vehicles, are notLincluded in these numbers.

Monitoring Trailer Loads at Reception Centeto Peak

. Peak Summer Midweek

.dummer Weekend' North Andover 7006 5756 Beverly 12267 13168 For the details of my assumptions Phd' calculations, see Attachment "A".

Q.7.

Do you believe these estimates are the best possible estimates of the evacuee loads at these reception centers?

1' A.7.

No.

They would likely be higher for two reasons.

-ll First, I used the Applicants' vehicle occupancy rate of 2.4 for the vehicles at Salisbury and Plum Island beaches.

In my opinion, the vehicle occupancy' rate is probably higher than that.

Surveys conducted of vehicle occupancy on hot summer' days at New Hampshire beaches within the EPZ and adjoining the Massachusetts, beaches (see Volume 6 of the NHRERP at E-4,. reporting data collected by the Southeastern New-Hampshire j

J m

3 1

4 Regional Planning Commission) show occupancy rates from 3.0 to 3.5 person per vehicles.

If an occupancy rate of 3.0 were applied to the beach area vehicle estimates for a peak summer weekend, then the evacuee load at Beverly_would increase to 14,552 people.

Second, the formula approved by the. Board in its NHRERP 4 Iv, and used here, assumes that only 20% of the non-transit dependent population will go to be 1

monitored at the reception centers.

No evidence, based on conditions at this site, is given to' support this assumption.

The percentage of the population that choose to be monitored could be much higher >chan 20%.

If.that were'the case, then evacuee loads at both North Andover and Beverly. would ' be hioler.-

0 8.

Does this conclude-your testimony?

A.8.

Yes.

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6-i Attachment A13 the Testimony of Dr. Colin J High C

$leabrook (Moosechusetto Plan)

Neximum Evocuating Populations Hoot Community of North Andover

,I ;

Permanent Residerts Summer Mdweek Summer Weekend Non-residents Non-residents I

Amesbury 14056 (a) 5101 (b) 3196 (c)

Merrimack 4583 (a) 1659 (b) 822 (c)

West Newbury 3518 (a) 1334 (b) 637 (c)

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, Total 22157 6094 4855 l

'. Transit Dependents 730 (d)

Spedal Fadlities 1152 (e)

Day Care 753 (e)

Host Community of Beverly l

l Permanent Residerte Summer hadweek SummerWeekend l

Non realdents Non residente Salisbury 6990 (a) l Newburyport 17612 (a)

Newbury 6100 (a)

Total 30702 29770 (f) 34278 (g)

)

Transit Dependents 754 (c)

Spedal Fadiltles 2155 (c)

Summery Permanent Residents Peak Total Population Peak Total Population Summer ledweek SummerWeekend j

i Astl0ned to N. Andover 22167 30251 27012 Assigned to Beverty 30702 60472 64970 TotalMass EPZ 52859 90723 91990 Evacuee Loade et Hoot Community Facilities ( Monitoring Treller Loeds)

Peak Peak Summer MWlweek Summer Weekend North Andover 7006 (h) 5756 (h) l -l Beverly 12267 (h) 13168 (h)

Total Maes EPZ 19273 18924 i.

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N:tes to Attachment A 4

a.) Permanent residents Source: Town Clerk data provided by applicants in memorandum of telephone conversations dated 12/6/88 frorn Tom Rigney.

b.) Summer midwcck non-residents - Summer midweck peak population Crable 3.6-1) - Permanent residents (Table 3.6-1) of SPMC Section 6.

c.) Summer wcckend non-residents - Summer weekend peak population Crable 3.6-1) - Permanent residents Crable 3.6-1 SPMC Section 6).

d.) Transit dependents, Table 11-7, Volume 6, NHRERP.

c.) Special facilities and day care populations from PSNH Intra-Company business memorandum from H. Hovino to D. Taillert dated January 13,1989 i

f.) Summer midweek non resident population for communities designed to 1

Heverly, see worksheet 2.

g.) Summer weekend non-resident population assigned to Beverly, see worksheet 2.

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h.) Monitoring trailcr loads - 0.2 (Population assigned to community - transit dependents - special facilities - day care) + transit dependents + day care.

1.) Vehicles of Non Beach transients and non EPZ employees from NHHERP l

Volume 6, Appendix M, page M1 and M2 using the vehicles at non-beach nodes l

only.

I m.) (Non-bcach transient vehicles x 2.4) + (Non-EPZ Non-Beach employees x 1

1.16).

n.) Summer Weekend Beach Transients of Salisbury, Newburyport and Newbury

- 31,000 x 0.4 x 2.4 x 0.93:

0.93 is the connection for the 7% of the resident population at the beach on Summer weekends based on NIIRERP Volume 6, Appendix M, Scenario 1.

0.4 is the 40% of thc total EPZ beach population that are found at l

Massachusetts Beaches.

1 2.4 is the vehicle occupancy Iale for tunslents, o.) Summer midweek beach transient population of Salisbury Newburyport and Newbury - 31,000

• 0.4

• 2.4

• 0.905:

As in Note (n), except.905 is the connection factor for the 9.5% of the resident population on the beach on Summer midweck days based on NHRERI' Volume 6, Appendix M, Scenario 3. -

(

c p.) Sum of the non bcach and beach non-residents from the previous j

calculations.

o Page 3 l

h

e UNITED STATES OF AMERICA h'

NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD-

~89 JN 29' P4 '15 Before the Administrative Judges:

gpp 00CKli w,,

.~m Ivan W. Smith, Chairman Ph utt

' ' ~

j Dr. Richard.F. Cole Kenneth A. McCollom

'l i

)-

-l In:the Matter of

)

Docket Nos. 50-443-OL-

~)

50-444-OL PUBLIC' SERVICE COMPANY

)

(Off-Site EP).

OF NEW HAMPSHIRE, _E T_ _A L_.

')-

)

(Seabrook Station,. Units 1 and 2)

)

June 27, 1989-

)

CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I, Allan R. Fierce,chereby certify that on June 27, 1989,'I made service of the within REVISED TESTIMONY OF DR. COLIN J. HIGH ON BEHALF OF JAMES M.

SHANNON, ATTORNEY. GENERAL FOR THE COMMONWEALTH OF i

i MASSACHUSETTS CONCERNING CONTENTION JI-56 (Monitoring Rate) and the-

)

ERRATA TO REVISED TESTIMONY OF DR. COLIN J. HIGH ON BEHALF OF JAMES-I M. SHANNON, ATTORNEY GENERAL FOR THE COMMONWEALTH ~OF MASSACHUSETTS.

i CONCERNING CONTENTION JI-56-(Monitoring-Rate) by first class mail to:

Ivan W. Smith, Chairman Kenneth'A. McCollon Atomic Safety & Licensing Board 1107 W.

Knapp St.

l U.S.

Nuclear Regulatory Stillwater, OK-74075 1

-Commission East West Towers Building Docketing and Service 4350 East' West Highway U.S. Nuclear Regulator)

Bethesda, MD

'20814

. Commission

-l Washington,-DC 20555 Dr. Richard F. Cole Atomic Safety & Licensing Board U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission East-West Towers' Building 4350 East-West Highway'

.i

'Bethesda, MD 20814 1

m.

4 Robert R.

Pierce, Esq.

Thomas G.

Dignany Jr.,

Esq.

Atomic Safety & Licensing Board Katherine-Selleck, Esq.

U.S.

Nuclear Regulatory Commission Ropes & Gray East West Towers Building One International Place 4350 East West Highway Boston, MA 02110 Bethesda, MD 20814 H. Joseph Flynn, Esq.

Sherwin E. Turk, Esq.

Assistant General Counsel U.S.

Nuclear Regulatory Office of General Counsel Commission Federal Emergency Management Office of the General Counsel Agency 15th Floor 500 C Street, S.W.

11555 Rockville Pike Washington, DC 20472 Rockville, MD 20852 Atomic Safety & Licensing Robert A.

Backus, Esq.

Appeal Board Backus, Meyer & Solomon U.S.

Nuclear Regulatory 116 Lowell Street Commission P.O. Box 516 Washington, DC 20555 Manchester, NH 03106 Atomic Safety & Licensing Board Jane Doughty U,S.

Nuclear Regulatory Commission Seanoast Anti-Pollution League Washington, DC 20555 5 Market Street Portsmouth, NH 03801 Charles P.

Graham, Esq.

Barbara St. Andre, Esq.

Murphy & Graham Kopelman & Paige, P.C.

33 Low Street 77 Franklin Street Newburyport, MA 01950 Boston, MA 02110 Judith H.

Mizner, Esq.

R.

Scott Hill-Whilton, Esq.

79 State Street Lagoulis, Hill-Whilton 2nd Floor

& Rotondi Newburyport, MA 01950 79 State Street Newburyport, MA 01950 Dianne Curran,

sq.

Ashod N.

Amirian, Esq.

Harmon, Curran, & Towsley 145 South Main Street Suite 430 P.O. Box 38 2001 S Street, N.W.

Bradford, MA 01835 Washington, DC 20008 Senator Gordon J. Humphrey Senator Gordon J. Humphrey U.S.

Senate One Eagle Square, Suite 507 Washington, DC 20510 Concord, NH 03301 (Attn: Tom Burack)

(Attn: Herb Boynton)

I 1 w_ _ - - -

l a.

John P.

Arnold, Attorney General Phillip Ahrens, Esq.

Office of the Attorney General Assistant Attorney General l

25 Capitol Street Department of the Attorney Concord, NH 03301 General Augusta, ME 04333 i

William S.

Lord Board of Selectmen Richard Donovan Town Hall - Friend Street FEMA Region 10 l

Amesbury, MA 01913 130 228th Street, S.N.

Federal Regional Center l

Bothell, WA 98021-9796 COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS JAMES M.

SHANNON ATTORNEY GENERAL l

i l

L6444 Allan R.

Pierce Assistant Attorney General l

Nuclear Safety Unit 1

Department of the Attorney General One Ashburton Place l

Boston, MA 02108-1698 (617) 727-2200 DATED:

June 27, 1989 l L_-________

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