ML20074A920
| ML20074A920 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Catawba  |
| Issue date: | 04/30/1983 |
| From: | PLANNING RESEARCH CORP. |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20074A917 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8305160295 | |
| Download: ML20074A920 (94) | |
Text
{{#Wiki_filter:__ - - e' a l % a + - i l CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION I EVACUATION ANALYSIS EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 1 j Prepared for: l DUKE POWER COMPANY by I} 4 PRC VOORHEES , j 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102
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f. I t TABLE OF CONTENTS l Page I List of Figures . . . . . . . .- . . . . . . . . . v List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vil Chapter i INTRODUCTION. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Purpose of this Study . . . . . . . . . . 1 Location of the Catawba Nuclear Station. . . . -. 1 State and Local Off-Site Preparedness , Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Summary of the Method for Estimating Evacuation Times . . . . . . . . . . 3 Summary of Evacuation Times . .
. .. . . . . 4 11 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION VICINITY , . . . . . . . . . . 5 Land Use in the 10-Mile Radius of the Catawba Nuclear Station . . . . . . . . 5 Highway System in the 10-Mile Radius of the Catawba Nuclear Station . . . . . . . . 5 i Other Transportation Facilities in the Catawba l Nuclear Station Area . . . . . . . . . 7 -j Governmental Jurisdictions. . . . . . . . . .7 Special Facilities Within the 10-Mile Radius of i
the Catawba Nuclear Station . . . . . . . 7 III THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE FOR THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION . . . . . . . 11 Guidelines for Defining the Emergency
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Planning Zone (EPZ). . . . . . . . . . 11 The EPZ Boundary for the Catawba Nuclear Station . . . . . . . .. . . . . 11 Selective Evacuation Zones. . . . . . . . 12
'l IV POPULATION OF THE CATAWBA EPZ . . . . . . 16 Population Segments . . . . . . . . . . 16 Special Facility Population . . . . . . . . . 16 Population Distribution . . . . . . . . . . 21 V THE EVACUATION SEQUENCE FOR THE CATAWBA EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ) . . . . . 22 Time Periods in Which Evacuation Might Occur . . . 23 Population Segments to be Evacuated . .. . . . . 26 -
Evacuation Action Steps . . . . . . . . . 26 Evacuation of Permanent Resident Population (Vehicle-Owning). . . . . . . . . . . 28
" Evacuation of Permanent Resident Population (Non-Vehicle-Owning) . . . . . . . .. . 31 Evacuation of Transient Population . . ._ . . . 32 11
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Table of Contents, Continued Chapter Page Evacuation of Special Facility Population (Schools) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Evacuation of Special Facility Population (Institutions) . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 1 Summary of the Evacuation Process . . . . . . s 34 VI EVACUATION ROUTES. . . . . . . . . . . 37 Designated Evacuation Routes . . . . . . . . 37 Capacities of the Evacuation Routes . . . . . . 37 Evacuation Travelsheds . . . . . . . . . . 39 Distribution of Traffic to the Evacuation Routes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Relationship of Evacuation Traffic Volumes and Route Capacities . . . . . . . . . . 43 VII
SUMMARY
OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES . . . 44 Conditions and Time Periods . . . . . . . . 44 Method for Estimating Evacuation Time . . . . . 44 Evacuation time for the Permanent Resident Population (Vehicle-Owning), Fall / Winter Weekday, Normal Weather Conditions . . . . . . . 45 Evacuation Time for the Pemanent Resident Population (Non-Vehicle-Owning) . . . . . . 58 Evacuation Time for the Transient Population . . . 60 Evacuation Time for the Special Facility Population (Schools) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Evacuation Time for the Special Facility Population (Institutions) . . . . . . . . . . . -. 68 Summary of Evacuation Times for Normal Conditions . . . . . . . . ; . . . 70 Evacuation Times Under Severe Weather Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Summary of Times for Selective Evacuations . . . 73 VIII CONFIRMATION OF EVACUATION . . . . . . . 74 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Planned Approach to Confirmation . . . . . . 74 Time Required for Confirmation . . . .- . . . 75 b e
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I { Table of Contents, Continued Chapter Page APPENDIX A. POPULATION BY 22.5 DEGREES SECTORS . A-1 j APPENDIX B. DERIVATION OF NON-VEHICLE-OWNING POPULATION AND NUMBER OF CARS USED FOR EVACUATION . . . . . . . .'. . . . . B-1 APPENDIX C. DESCRIPTION OF EVACPLAN MODELS USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES. . . C-1 iI .I j i De
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! Local Government Units Within 10-Mile Radius and EPZ of the Catawba Nuclear Power Station . . . . . . 14 2 Population of the Catawba EPZ an'd Zones . . 17 3 Special Facilities Population in the Catawba EPZ. . . . . . . 18 4 Summary of Evacuation Action Steps . . . 36 5 Capacity of Major Evacuation Routes . . . 40 6 Traffic Volur$es and Capacities for Major Evacuation Routes . . . . . 42 7 Time Distribution for " Receive Notification" l Step . . . . . . . 46 p
8 Time Distribution for " Leave Place of Work" l Step . . . . . . . 47 9 Time Distribution for " Work-to-Home Travel" Step . . . . . . . 48 10 Time Distribution for "* repare for Evacuating Home" ' g Step . . . . . . . 49 11 Time Distribution for " Prepare for Evacuating Home" Step for Non-Vehicle-Owning Population. . 59 12 Time Distribution for " Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses" Step . . . . 60 i i 13 Time Distribution for " Assemble Traveling Group" Step for Transient Population . . . 62 14 Time Distribution for "Recieve Notification" Step for School Population . . . . 65 15 Time Distribution for " Evacuate School Population in Buses" Step . . . . . 66 ]4
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- Number Page 16 Time Distribution for " Mobilize Population" Step for Population in Institutions . . 68
[ 17 Time Distribution for " Evacuate Institutional j Population in Buses and Special i Vehicles" Step . . . . . 69 18 Summary of Evacuation Time Estimates .- . . 72 t l
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! Location of the Catawba Nuclear Power Station. . . . 2 2 Highway System in the Vicinity of the Catawba Nuclear Power Station . . . . . . . . 6 s ; 3 Other Transportation Facilities in the Vicinity of the Catawba Nuclear Power Station . . . . . . . 8 t 4 Local Governirent Jurisdictions . . . . . . . . 9 5 Location of Special Faellities . . . . . . . . . 10 6 Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the Catawba 1 Nuclear Power Station . . . . . . . . . . 13 7 Select!'ve Evacuation Zones for the Catawba EPZ . . . 15 8 Time Periods in Which Evacuation Can Occur . . . . 24 9 Population Segments and Evacuation Sequences . . . . 27 10 Major Routes Leading out of the EPZ'of the Catawba Nuclear Pov er Station . . . . . . . 38 11 Travel Sheds for Routes Leading Away From the Catawba Nuclear Station . . . . . . . . . 41 12 Evacuation Time for the Permanent Resident Population j (Auto-Owning) . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 1
j 13 Possible Levels of Traffic Congestion . . . . . . . 55 j
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14 Traffic Congestion Summary . . . . . . . . . 57 IS Evacuation Times for the Permanent Resident Population (Non- Auto-Owning) . . . . . . . 61 1 16 Evacuation Times for the Transient Population . . . . 64 j 17 Evacuation Times for the Special Facilities Population (Schools) . . . . . . . . . . . 67 13 Evacuation Times for the Specla! Facility Population (Institutions). . . , . . . . . . . 71 9
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9 l t CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY I The study summarized in this report was made to determine the time needed to 1 evacuate'the population of the Plume Exposure Patnway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) surrounding the Catawba Nuclear Station in York County, South Carolina. LOCATION OF THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION j The Catawba Nuclear Station is located on Wylie Lake in northeastern York County, South Carolina (Figure 1). The Catawba Station is 6 miles north of Rock Hill, South Carolina and 17 miles southwest of downtown Charlotte, North Carolina, i i STATE AND LOCAL OFF-SITE PREPAREDNESS PLANNING l State and local preparedness plans have been developed by the State of South Carolina and York County, the only South Carolina county within the EPZ. Similarly, North Carolina and the two North Carolina counties in the EPZ'(Gaston and Mecklenburg) have preparedness plans. These plans provide for recources and j, manpower needed for a successful evaucation of the area, specifically:
! e Detailed evacuation plans, addressing notification, routing, manpower ; and resource requirements, confirmation of evaucation and transpor-tation of non-vehicle-owning population (schools, households without j , vehicles, and persons in institutions) e Communication within tne EPZ, and between the plant, state agen-cies, the counties, and local governments within the EPZ e Local (city and town) mobilization and decisionmaking e Local notification procedures, including siren, public address, and telephone notification, procedures for radio and television informa-tion e Detailed traf fic control olan
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l 4 e Transoortation for the school population e Transportation for non-vehicle-owning population and persons in institutions e Transoortation for non-ambulatory population i e Reception centersl and procedures for clearing evacuated population through them s -
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-i ; ! e Manpower (traffic control, supervisory, security, and emergency 'j .
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SUMMARY
OF THE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING EVACUATION TIMES
~1 In developing these evacuation time estimates, the population is divided into three segments: (i) permanent resident population (2) transient population and, (3) spe-cial facility population. For each population segment, a series of discrete action steps is identified, and the completion time for each step determined.
4 The time for completing each step is then linked together statistically to yield the total evacuation time for that population segment. The apparent advantage of this method is that travel time is estimated for each
, individual step of the evacuation sequence (for which data are more readily .j available) rather than for the entire evacuaticn as a' single entity (for which data are non-existent).2 4
Two cases of evacuation time estimates are made: (1) for fall / winter weekday ll under normal weather conditions and, (2) a winter weekday under severe weather i' conditions. ! l f l
- 1. In South Carolina, reception centers and shelters are separate facilities. In
, North Carolina, the reception and shelter functions are combined into a single facility, designated as " shelters." In North Carolina, the terms " reception centers" and " shelters" are synonomous.
- 2. NUREG 0634, Appendix 4.
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$UMMARY OF EVACUATION TIMES Under normal weather and for the critical time period (weekday during school hours), the maximum evacuation time for the Catawba EPZ is four hours. Times are measured from the beginning of notification until all the population voluntarily
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; evacuated in less than four hours.
I I Under severe weather conditions (winter storm) the evacuation time for the Catawba EPZ is 6 hours and 15 minutes,156 percent of the time required for evacuation under normal weather conditions. l s
. In normal weather, traffic congestion will occur on 11 of the 18 major routes out of the area. At the location of maximum congestion, congestion will occur;for 2 hours and 15 minutes. In the worst case, a vehicle could spend 60 minutes in traffic delays when evacuating by that route.
On 8 of the 11 routes experiencing traffic congestion, the congestion will end before all permanent resident population has completed preparation to leave home. On these routes, evacuation time'is not determined by traffic congestion but, rather, by the time needed to prepare for leaving home. On 3 of the 18 routes, traffic congestion will continue until after the' time that all' the permanent resident population has completed preparations to leave home. On these routes, the maximum evacuation time is determined by the traffic conges-tion. - 4 1 1 F 4 i I 4 l l 1 g-. .
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h . n'; n Routes 901, 72, and 322 southbound, and State Routes 5 and 161 running both east and west. In addition to the interstate, there are several segments of four-lane road in the Rock Hill area. Also, U.S. 321 leaving the EPZ to the northwest and U.S. 21 leaving in the southeast are four-lane roads. OTHER TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES IN l 'i THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION AREA l (( As Figure 3 shows, a Southern Railroad line crosses the southern part of the D 10-mile area in an east-west direction and another runs through Rock Hill to
!! Charlotte with an industrial spur just north of Pineville. Along the western edge of the EPZ are the tracks of the Carolina and Northwestern Railway.
a GOVERNMENTAL JURISDICTIONS U Three counties-York, Gaston, and Mecklenburg-sre included in the 10-mile radius of the Catawba Station (Figure 4). ' Six incorporated areas are at least partly within the 10-mile radius of the plant: Pineville, Fort Mill, Rock Hill, York, Clover, and j; Tega Cay. o ?i- ] SPECIAL FACILITIES WITHIN THE 10-MILE RADIUS OF THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION Figure 5 shows the location of the special facilities in the area. These consist of 43 schools (public and nrivate), 23 day-care centers, 6 nursing homes, 2 hospitals, and the York County Prison. The schools include Winthrop University and York Technical College in Rock Hill. Nearly all of the schools are in or near the cities, with over one-half in the Rock Hill area. Two-thirds of the day-care centers are in the Rock Hill area, with the rest in Clover, Fort Mill, or York. The nursing homes are predominantly in Rock Hill. The prison is about two miles east of York on SC $5. , %4 N- ! 7 p g,www " 4 W p.e*ss W "
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i l - 1 - i CHAPTER !!!. THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE FOR THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION GUIDELINES FOR DEFINING THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EP2) Federa1 regulations! define the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) as an area of about a 10-mile radius frem the nuclear power station. Local preparedness planning 3 concentrates on protecting the population of the EP: from direct radiation i exposure. i I In defining the EPZ boundary for any particular site, some general guidelines are observed 1 4
! e The EPZ should include approximately the 10-mile radius of the " power station. Exclusion of small, lightly populated areas at the 10-mile periphery is permitted when this simplifies the boundary , definition.
e The EP: must be easily identifiable. Rather than strictly following q the 10-mile radius, the EPZ boundary should follow nearby natural features (shorelines, streams), man-made features (highways, rail-l roads), governmental, and special district boundaries. e The EP: boundary should not split major coherent populations which I fall at the 10-mile radius (for example, Clover). Rather, the EP: boundary should either include or exclude such concentrations in their I entirety. ' e The EPZ boundary should be regular and consistent, with supportable reasons for including areas. Evacuation of large areas or population j-groups well beyond the 10-mile radius should be avoided. ! THE EP2 BOUNDARY FOR THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR STATION There are few dominant natural or political boundary features that could serve as portions of the EPZ boundary for the Catawba Nuclear Station. Consequently,
- 1. NUREG 0654, Appendix 4 s
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i . j . I l York, Gaston, and Me'c klenburg Counties have identified an EP:' border that is based largely on state and local roads (Figure 6). The resulting EPZ boundary includes at least the 10-mile radius from the Catawba Nuclear Station, except for some small areas totaling just a few square miles. All
- the areas within 10 miles of Catawba Nuclear Station, but excluded from the EPZ, contain negligible population.
Six incorporated areas-Clover, Fort Mill, Pineville, Rock Hill, Tega Cay, and York-are included in the Catawba EPZ. No incorporated area is divided by the boundary. Table I sur.'marizes the local governmental jurisdictions within the Catawba EPZ. SELECTIVE EVACUATION ZONES i The division of the Catawba EPZ into selective evacuation zones (Figure 7)is based l on the planning zones as established by the States of South Carolina and North Carolina, as well as the local preparedness agencies of Gaston, Mecklenburg, and j York Counties. The radial boundaries for these zones are defined by: e The state and county lines I j e Rivers and streams such as the Catawba River i e Highways, such as York County 81 and South Carolina 161
; The circumferential boundaries for these zones are generally defined by local ! roads.
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i i TABLE 1. LOCAL GOVERNMENT UNITS WITHIN 10-MILE RADIUS AND EPZ OF THE CATAWBA NUCLEAR POWER STATION Portion of Local Government Unit Within . j 10-Mile Radius Catawba Nuclear of Plant Station EPZ
, Counties Gaston Part Part Mecklenburg Part Part York Part Part i
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CHAPTER IV. POPULATION OF THE CATAWBA EPZ .t POPULATION SEGMENTS t Separate evacuation time estimates are made for each of the following three components of population in the Catawba EPZ:
- 1. Permanent Resident Population - Those persons living full-time in
-' the Catawba EPZ. Two subgroups of permanent residents are recognized: i e Vehicle-Owning Population - Those permanent residents hav-ing a vehicle available for their evacuation from the EPZ. e Non-Vehicle-Owning Population - Those permanent residents not having a vehicle available for their evacuation from the !! Catawba EPZ and who, therefore, must be transported by other means. There are an estimated 93,483 permanent residents in the Catawba EPZ (Table 2). ]
; 2. Transient Population! - Non-residents of the EPZ temporarily within
{ lt, primarily for the purpose of recreation. A maximum transient a population of 89,669 persons in the EPZ (Table 2) was estimated from j base year surveys and forecasts.
- 3. Special Facility Population! - Concentrations of population in insti-j;i
' tutions. This includes schools, university campus, hospitals, nursing homes, day care centers, and the prison. There is a reported special facility population of 36,134 persons in the EPZ on a weekday when schools are in session (Table 2),
l 'l SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION ,) ) Table 3 lists the special facilities in the Catawba EPZ and gives their populations and subarea locations. As indicated in Table 3, the school population accounts for
- 1. Some elements of population may be counted twice, both as resident population and as transient /special population. This double-counting is immaterial to the estimates of evacuation time.
f 16
TABLE 2. POPULATION OF THE CATAWBA EPZ AND ZONES Permanent Resident Pooulation ' Special Vehicle- Non-Vehicle- Transient Facility 4 Zone Owning Owning Total Pooulation Population Central, NC Portion 321 3'6 357 654 0 Central, SC Portion 327 36 363 5,552 0 t Subtotal, O to 2
.. Miles' 648 72 720 6,206 0 A-1 476 53 529 10,187 0 B-1 2,368 263 2,631 2,588 24 C-1 5,545 616 6,161 16,827 1,544 D-1 1,273 141 1,414 109 0 E-1 386 43 429 0 0 F-1 2,316 257 2,573 1,582 364 Subtotal, O to 5 l Miles 13,012 1,445 14,457 37,499 1,932 .1 l
4 i A-2 4,354 484 4,838 4,073 2,862
]
- B-2 8,794 977 9,771 46,826 3,094 C-2 40,468 4,496 44,964 0 21,031 D-2 8,252 917 9,169 E-2 0 4,023 4,461 496 4,957 0 2,820 F-2 2,390 265 2,655 650 0 F-3 2,405 267 2,672 651 469 .
TOTAL EPZ 84,136 9,347 93,483 89,699, 36,231 u i r 17 4
. . . , _ _ _ . . _ , _ _ __,--+~a.--- -e . . . - - - ~ - -
4 . . . TABLE 3. SPECIAL FACILITIES POPUL'ATION IN THE CATAWBA EPZ j Location Facility Population (Zone) Gaston County Schools W.A. Bess 469 F-3 Mecklenburg County Schools Steele Creek Elementary 777 A-2 Pineville Elementary 844 A-2 Olympic High 1,176 A-2 York County Schools A. O. Jones School 563 B-2 Alternative School 76 C-2 Belleview Elementary 450 C-2 Bethel Elementary School 364 F-1 Career Development Center 862 C-2 Castle Heights Junior High 960 C-2 j Catawba School
- 445 C-1 Clover High School 1,008 E-2 Clover Junior High 596 E-2
- Clover Middle School 561 E-2
} Ebenezer Avenue Elementary 431 C-2 i Ebinport Elementary 417 C-2
; Edgewood Center 116 C-2 y Episcopal Church Home for Children 62 D-2 Finley Road Elementary 453 C-2 Fort Mill High School 915 B-2 Fort Mill Junior High School 250 B-2 Harold C. Johnson Middle School 1,025 D-2 Jefferson Elementary 715 D-2 Kinard Elementary School 591 E-2 McCelvery Elementary 686 C-1 Mount Gallant Elementary 790 D-2 Northside Elementary 454 C-2 Northwestern High School 1,322 C-2 Oakdale Elementary 448 C-2 Rawlinson Road Junior High 1,251 C-2 Richmond Drive Elementary 452 C-2 Riverview Primary and Elementary Complex 1,292 B-2 Rosewood Elementary 389 C-1 St. Anne's 171 C-2
)
J 18 4 7 ; @ ._, ; -_ . - - - .-- v . - - - - -- - -~--
, Table 3, Continued
- 1 I
j Location Facility Pooulation (Zone)
- 1 j York County Schools (continued) .
Sullivan Junior High 1,010 C-2
- ] Sunset Park Elementary 458 C-2 Sylvia Circle Elementary 359 C-2 1
Trinity Christian 324 C-2 , Winthrop College 4,881 C-2 York Christian School 140 D-2 York Comprehensive High and Johnson Vocational 1,070 D-2 York Road Elementary 562 C-2 York Technical College 2,850 C-2 Clinton College 275 C-2 4 Day Care Centers S; Adams Care Center 21 C-2 , Child Development Center 62 E-2 Children's Christian 119 C-2 Children's Wonderworld 70 C-2 ]) College Park Nursery 30 C-2 '+ Davis Day Care Center 33 C-2 Ebenezer Day Care Center, Inc. 32 C-2 Emmitt Scott Day Care 85 C-2 Jimmy's Day Care 40 C-2 Kiddie Kollege Child Development Center 200 C-2 LaPetite Academy 75 C-2 LaPetite Academy 47 C-2 Little Fox Nursery 33 B-2 Little Peoples Day Care 60 C-2
- Mt. Gallant Day Care 49 C-1 Pine Grove Day Care Center 30 D-2 R. H. Comprehensive Day Care 114 C-2 Tega Cay Day Care 24 B-1 Toddler House Nursery 40 C-2 Wards Wonderland 35 B-2 Wee Care Day Care Nursery 68 C-2 Whiteheads Kiddie Kare 45 C-2 Yours, Mine and Ours 45 D-2 i
19 s 5 p.__- . . _,_ _ , .m . ._ . - - - - - - - -
l Table 3, Continued Location Facility Population (Zone)
.; Hospitals Divine Savior Hospital 51 D-2 Piedmont Medical Center 160 C-2 1 Nursing Homes -
Anne's Convalescence Home 62 C-2 Divine Savior Home 51 D-2 Fallaw Residential Care 37 C-2 Meadow Haven Nursing Center 132 C-2 4 Rock Hill Convalescence Center 141 C-2 Sunshine Homes 10 D-2 Penal Institutions Clover Detention Center 2 E-2 Fort Mill Detention Center 6 B-2 Rock Hill Detention Center (Cherry Road) 14 C-2 Rock Hill Detention Center (City Ha!!) 4 C-2
- ; York County Prison 45 D-2
- York Detention Center 6 D-2 E!
,4 e
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. . . . . . - . - . . . . - . , - - - - - - - . . --- . - - - ~ , .--
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'l almost a!! of th'e'special facility population. The other specla! facilities in the EPZ are day care centers, Piedmont Medical Center, Divine Savior Hospital, six nursing f homes, and the York County Prison.
I POPULATION DISTRIBUTION ! The majority of the population in the Catawba EPZ is concentrated in the Rock Hill area. Zone C-2, which includes Rock Hill, has 44,964 residents, or 49 percent l of the total residential population of the EPZ. The population center nearest 'to the Catawba Plant (approximately two miles) is Tega Cay with less than 3 percent . of the EPZ population. Another 17 percent of the populatinn' lives in the i; incorporated areas on the fringe of the EPZ-Clover, Fort Mill, Pineville, and York. ) York County contains 91 percent of the EPZ residential population (85,087 residents). Mecklenburg County contains another 6 percent (5,724 residents), and Gaston County contains the remaining 3 percent (2,672 residents). Il
- 1 i
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CHAPTER V. THE EVACUATION SEQUENCE FOR THE CATAWBA EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ) Evacuation is intended to remove the population of the Catawba EPZ as rapidly as possible. Evacuees are directed to designated reception centers where they are screened for radiological exposure. Evacuees are then lodged temporarily, or they
'/ go to destinations of their own choosing-primarily homes of nearby relatives and friends.
Wherever possible, the evacuating population will 1. eave the EPZ in private automobiles. Persons without transportation will be transported by buses, ambu-lances, or other available vehicles. L!
- i Most motorists will I ave the EPZ by the most direct route; that is, the shortest
!!: route out of the EPZ. Traffic direction at some key locations, particularly the
; U.S. 21 and I-77 interchange near Rock Hill and the intersection of S.C. 901 and S.C. 72, will help balance the traffic volumes on the evacuation routes. Except at f those two locations, normal traffic flow will be observed, with streets open to all !) traffic and functioning in their usual manner. 'l Separate evacuation time estimates are made for the three population groups identified in Chaper IV: (1) permanent residents, (2) transient population, and (3) special facility population. Each of these groups follow a different procedure in j evacuation:
i e 4 Permanent Resident Population - The vehicle-owning . permanent resident population, af ter receiving the broadcast instructions to evacuate, assembles by family at home (except for children -at (. school), prepares for evacuating the home, and drives out of the EPZ. i The non-vehicle-owning permanent resident population prepares for leaving their homes and will then be transported out of the EPZ in buses or other vehicles. e Transient Population - The transient population, after receiving instructions to evacuate, will assemble the group (if any) that is traveling together, and will drive out of the EPZ, using their private 22 \ - - -
~n . . .
i I r . vehicles. Unescorted children at Carowinds Theme Park will be taken to reception centers in Mecklenburg County by Charlotte Transit System buses. e Soecial Facility Pooulation - The school population (public and pri- ' vate) is transported by school bus directly from the schools, and is l under control of school staff. Persons in institutions (hospitals, nursing homes, etc.) are prepared for evacuation, then transported out of the EPZ in buses, ambulances, emergency vehicles, and possibly other vehicles. TIME PERIODS IN WHICH EVACUATION MIGHT OCCUR l The procedure for evacuating the Catawba EPZ will vary, depending on the time of day, day of week, and season of the year in which the evacuation occurs. Figure 8 illustrates the combinations of time, day, and seasons that are considered. l Day or Night Evacuation r i In general, evacuation is likely to be more difficult in the daytime than in the l nighttime. [ During the day, there is a relatively large chance that f amilies are not assembled
; at home but, rather, are dispersed at work, shopping, on personal business, etc. On school days, the school population is not at home for most of the daytime period.
Also, more transients are in the EPZ during the day, in a night evacuation, the notification process would be slowed by people having to wake up and comprehend the evacuation information being broadcast. Also, additional time (relative to the daytime situation) would be required to prepare vehicles for evacuation in tne dark. On the other hand, for most of the population, the families would be intact at the time of notification, since schools are not in session and relatively few employees are on the job. 23 4
. - - - - . - - - - . - ----# ew,%= +=w-e*. ---==--we-e - *+ * * ~ * * = - *
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1 I TIME OF DAY OF TIME OF i DAY WEEK YEAFI l , School Year Weekend Summer 6 Day Time eO Critical School Year Time l Period Weekday V l L Summer [ ' l! I l School Year , Weekend Summer f Night time School Year Weekday t Summer 1 l l l l
. Figure 8. Time Periods in Which Evacuation Can Occur l'
l' I 1 g 24
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J Weekday or Weekend Evacuation . In general, a weekday evacuation is likely to be more difficult than one on a weekend. On a typical weekday, much of the population is away from home, mainly at work. During the school year, the school population is also away from home during the day.
- { On the weekends, on the other hand, a number of peopole are away from the home for reasons other than work or school. However, the assembly of these people at home on a weekend does not present the same problem as assembling them on a typical work and school day, when a much larger percentage is not at home.
School Year or Summer F.vacuation In general, an evacuation during the school year period is more difficult than an
~
evacuation during the summer season. When schools are in session, a weekday t evacuation would have to involve evacuation of the school population. Also, the number of employees at work is at a maximum during the school year period when employment activity is at a maximum and few workers are on vacation. I In the summer period, evacuation can be complicated by the presence of non-residents around or on Lake Wylie and at Carowinds. However, these factors cause lj less difficulty in evacuation than that caused by the school population on a
- 1 l* weekday when school is in session.
Critical Time Period Adooted for the. Catawba Station Evacuation In estimating the evacuation time for the Catawba EPZ, the critical time period-the time period for which evacuation is likely to require the most time-is daytime during the school year (Figure 8). During this period, the time needed to assemble f amily units is likely to be at a maximum since most employees are at r 25 g,,3,% , WW*** *M** * ~ ~ ' ' '
4
.I
! l! work at this time. Also, the likelihood of being away from home for other reasons ,; (for example, shopping, personal business, etc.) is fairly ~ high during this period. Finally, evacuation during the school year raises issues of school population evacuation which do not exist in other time periods. POPULATION SEGMENTS TO BE EVACUATED Separate evacuation time estimates are made for each of the three population groups identified in Chapter IV: e Permanent Residents, who evacuate either in private automobiles (if they are vehicle-owning population) or are transpcrted out in school buses or other vehicles (if they are non-vehicle-owning) e Transient Population, who evacuate primarily in private automobiles , o Special Facility Population, who are transported out of the EPZ in school buses, other public vehicles and, in some cases, in private l; automobiles Family Units Families (excluding children in school) evacuate as units. On weekdays, family members return home from their jobs, shopping, etc. On weekends, many families - are already assembled and can immediately prepare to leave home. Non-resident families (for example, recreational visitors) are already assembled and evacuate. j with almost no further preparation. Ii EVACUATION ACTION STEPS
- ) For each population segment, the evacuation sequence consists of a series of ll clearly defined actions, performed in a predictable sequence (see Figure 9).
, Subdividing the evacuation process into these discrete steps improves the accuracy of the estimates of time needed for the entire evacuation. 'In place of a :, ingle l' estimate of the entire evacuation process, for which data are not available, this I 26
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process permits the estimation of time for each individual step, for which data are more readily available, or for which reasonable esitmates can be made. Public Agency and Private Steps Some of the evacuation steps identified in Figure 9 are performed by public
; agencies or quasi-public bodies, such as volunteer fire departments. For all l population groups, the " Receive Notification" action is the responsibility of public l agencies. For those persons evacuated by means other than privately owned l vehicles, public agencies have the additional responsibility for the actual transpor- ! tation out of the EPZ; for example, " Evacuate School Population in Buses," .
I " Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses," etc. For most populations in institutions, the " Mobilize Population" step is also a public agency resonsibility. Those action steps not the responsibility of public agencies are done at the initiative of the individuals being evacuated. For the vehicle-owning population, all steps af ter the initial " Receive Nctification" are private actions; that is, they are initiated by the individuals being evacuated. Similarly, some steps in the evacuation of non-vehicle-owning households are private steps. EVACUATION OF PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (VEHICLE-OWNING) 4 The following sections describe the sequence of evacuation for the resident vehicle-owning population of the Catawba EPZ during the fall-winter weekday , period.
.i i
Receive Notification j i The first activity in the evacuation process is the notification of the public that an ; emergency exists. This includes the sounding of sirens, followed by Emergency Broadcast System (EBS) Information, and some direct notification by NOAA radio alert. 1 _. I 28 h J . 1 i
. _ . _ - - . ~ . . _ _ _ . . _ . . . _ . . _ _ . _ _ . . . . . _ . -
~~ -i Various other back-up measures are used to inform the populatoin which might not be reached by the above means. Mobile sirens and public address units will supplement the siren alerting system. Mobile public address units mounted on boats or aircraf t will notify boaters on Lake Wylle.
This notification alerts the public that an emergency exists, and that they should tune in to radio and television broadcasts for further information. The notifica-tion, by itself, does not inform the public of the nature of the emergency nor of the
;, response that they should make.
t
.l Information on the nature of the emergency and instructions on evacuation are given through radio and television broadcasts over cooperating local stations in the I
Emergency Broadcast System (EBS). Leave Place of Work The rate at which area workers will leave their jobs to return home to prepare for evacuation depends on the particular work environment and upon the responsibility level of the worker. It is to be expected that most of the work force will be able to leave their jobs almost immediately, quite similar to a normal departure from work at the end of the workday. A number of workers, however, will require some job "close-down" time in work situations; for example, those that involve chemical processes, construction equipment, or cash registers in retail sales establishments. Supervisory employees, managers, and independent business operators will gen-erally require the greatest amount of time to secure their place of work'and to assure that all employees and others on the premises have departed. Work-to-Home Travel Travel of the employees fro n their place of work to home is identical to the daily work-to-home travel pattern. The maximum length for work trips for people living and working in the EPZ is not likely to exceed 20 miles. An average travel speed of 20 to 30 miles per hour is typical for the work-to-home travel for area workers. l4 29 w . s4.gw=. ee n=<= w -m-a --iv<we w "* u e 6* * *** ' * * *.* * * " * * * " * " ' *
- w-w
O f This movement of workers, because of the short time over which it occurs, can be expected to cause some traffic congestion similar to that occurring during the twice-daily work travel peak. The road system can handle this volume of traffic with essentially the same level of service as during the peak hours on a typical
,j working day.
4 Prepare for Evacuating Home
- People can be epxected to react differently to any emergency situulon, and there ,
, is likely to be great differences in the amount of time that residents will spend in 't .) preparing to leave their homes. Three factors, in particular, affect the amount of ! time needed to prepare for evacuating a household:
- t i.
~
Whether or not adults are at home when notice to evacuate is received. If so, preparation time is shortened (compared to house-y holds where no adults are at home) since preparation for evacuation q can begin before workers arrive home. .
. 2. Number of children and other dependents at home. These increase ; the time needed to prepare the household for evacuation.
U 3. The amount of property to be secured. Farms are the extreme case
't and may require up to two hours to secure. On the other hand, small households can be prepared for evacuation in minutes.
J
- ( Travel Out of the EPZ d
1g Af ter households are secure, residents of vehicle-owning households will drive out ti of the EPZ. Most motorists will use the most direct route available. j Public agencies will give routing advice for this travel, by means of preparedness plans prior to the emergency and through information broadcasts during the actual L evacuation. Law enforcement officers will also channel flow of traffic at critical locations as defined in local preparedness plans and in response to actual conditions. I a 30 1
The vehicle-owning resident population will drive to reception centers established outside the EP where they will be checked for contamination and reunited with other family members. Evacuees will then either go to a shelter, where they will "f be lodged temporarily, or to other destinations (homes of friends or relatives) of their own choosing. During the evacuation, normal traffic operations will prevail. Specifically, roads will continue in two-way operation, traffic signals will continue to function, and so forth. At key locations, mainly htersections, traffic control will be under direction of law enforcement officers or other personnel as designated by local evacuation plans. On most roads, traffic will flow freely, although at reduced speeds. However, at certain locations and during certain portions of the evacuation period, traffic congestion is expected. The location and extent of this traffic congestion is } discussed in Chapter VII of this report. EVACUATION OF PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION h (NON-VEHICLE-OWNING) I, Receive Notification The procedure for receiving broadcast information is the same as for vehicle-owning population (above). This includes th'e sounding of sirens followed by broadcast information and supplemented by mobile public address. Prepare for Evacuating Home This step is the same as for vehicle-owning population (above). As in the case of vehicle-owning population, primary facors in the time required for this action or, whether or not an adult is at home at the time of notification, the number of dependents to be evacuated, and the extent of property to be secured. 31 9e h 4e- ee. < +. ,.
Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses
; A significant fraction of the non-vehicle-owning population (perhaps as much as
; 50 percent) will be evacuated as passengers in private vehicles driven by family, lj neighbors, or friends. This component of the non-vehicle-owning population is considered as part of the vehicle-owning population, and their evacuation proce-dure follows that of the vehicle-owning population described above.
Persons from non-vehicle-owning households who do not evacuate as passengers in private vehicles wi!! be transported out of the EP in publicly owned vehicles, dispatched by the County preparedness agencies. In York County, South Carolina, and Gaston County, North Carolina, the primary source of vehicles are school buses. Transit buses from Charlotte will be the primary source of vehicles in Mecklenburg County. i ?>
.t EVACUATION OF TRANSIENT POPULATION
- 1
-i Receive Notification ., Most of the industrial transient population will be notified by tone alert receivers, j .
telephone calls, and the siren system. Transient recreational visitors around Lake Wylie are notified by the siren system. Some boaters on the lake will be notified by mobile public address systems. Assemble Traveling Group The traveling group (usually family) is assembled. Prepeations for evacuating (for example, closing a cabin, docking a boat) are made. Travel Out of the EPZ After assembling their traveling group, the transient population will drive out of the EP using their private vehicles. l . 32 go we a.e-Wf- M#' e +54* s % g g -4Wi e = * - 'D 4"N* "" PO.'W N"'
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,1 Transient population will be directed to a reception center. Af ter clearing the reception center, they wi!! return to their homes outside the EPZ. , Public agencies will give routing advice for this travel through information broadcasts during the evacuation. Law enforcement officers will also direct traffic flows out of the EPZ.
Unescorted children at Carowinds Theme Park will be taken by bus to a reception center in Mecklenburg County where they will be screened for radiological contamination and reunited with their parents. . 1 EVACUATION OF SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (SCHOOLS) Receive Notification l Following the decision to evacuate, the counties notify schools directly of the need
} for evacuation. This is done through the stren system and telephone calls directly l} to the schools.
1 ~' Evacuate School Population in Buses
!l The school population is transported directly by bus fro;n school to reception centers. An entire school will be transported to the same reception center. School
, children will not return home prior to evacuat on. i The picking up of school 1 children at school by th' eir f ami!!es is discouraged. All buses normally used within the Catawba EPZ wi!! be used for evacuation. These will be supplemented by buses from outside the EPZ, but within the three-county ares. 4 91 4 6 h 33 4
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l EVACUATION OF SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (INSTITUTIONS) Receive Notification Following the decision to evacuate, the local preparedness agencies will notify i institutions directly by telephone calls. Mobilize Population il { The institutional population is instructed to evacuate by the staff of that particular , institution. Necessary personal effects are assembled. Essential medical records
-( are gathered.
I Evacuate Institutional Population in Buses or Special Vehicles Buses will pick up ambulatory hospital patients, nursing home residents, and other persons not requiring ambulance transportation. These passengers will be trans-ported directly to the alternate relocation facilities. Non-ambulatory persons will be transported directly from institutions by emer- ' gency vehicles normally based within the EPZ, supplemented by emergency vehicles from outside the EPZ.
SUMMARY
OF THE EVACUATION PROCESS In order to examine the " worst case" for which evacuation times are at a maximum, the evacuation is assumed to occur during the daytime during the school year. > I Three population groups, having distinctly different evacuation methods, are recognized: o Permanent residents who will evacuate in private vehicles (if vehicle-owning) or who will be transported in transit vehicles (if non-vehicle-owning) 3"
- 1 1
,1 .
...-- . - - . - - . , - . . . . - - - - - ~
^
e Transient oopulation who will evacuate in private vehicles e Special facility oopulation who are transported out of the EPZ in i 4 school buses, public transit buses, other public vehicles and, in some ; cases, private automobiles , For each population group, the evacuation sequence consists of a number of clearly l defined action steps as summarized in Table 4. I
!i ij !
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SUMMARY
OF EVACUATION ACTION STEPS - j , Population Segenent Action Steps and Description Perinanent Resident Population 1. (Vehicle-Owning) RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, including instructions for evacuating
- 2. LEAVE PLACE OF WORK (Allineinbers of households, 3. WORK-TO-ilOME TRAVEL, sirnitar to norinal work trip
, , except school children, having 4. PREPARE FOR EVACUATING llOME (close house, secure property)
- j a private vehicle available for 5.
evacuation TRAVEL OUT OF Tile EPZ in private vehicles, using most direct routes ,y Perinaneret Resident Population 1. (Non-Vehicle-Owning) RECEIVE NOTIFIC/ TION, including instructions for evacuating
- 2. PREPARE FOR EVACUATING liOME (close house, secure property)
(Persons not having a private 3. vehicle available for evacuation EVACUATE NON-VElllCLE-OWNING POPULATION IN BUSES froin county school systein M Transient Population 1. (Workers, recreational visitors) RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, including instructions for evacuating
- 2. ASSEMBLE TRAVELING GROUP
. 3. TRAVEL OUT OF Tile EPZ in private vehicles f
Special Facility Population 1. (Schools) RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, including instructions for evacuating
- 2. EVACUATE SCllOOL POPULATION IN BUSES Special Facility Population 1.
(Institutions) RECEIVE NOTIFICATION, including instructions for evacuating
- 2. MOBILIZE POPULATION, prepare population for evacuation 3.
EVACUATE INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION IN BUSES OR SPECIAL VElllCLES
i i CHAPTER VI. EVACUATION ROUTES 6 DESIGNATED EVACUATION ROUTES i' lj In the event evacuation is necessary, people in the EP2 will be instructed to leave the area using the f astest route available. No attempt will be made to limit evacuation traffic to a few selected roads (as is sometimes done for security or to channel evacuees to reception centers). Thus, every road out of the EPZ will carry some evacuation traffic. The most significant of these are shown in Figure 10.
.?
To facilitate movement to the reception centers, where location may be unfamiliar i3 to some evacuees, the emergency preparedness officials for Gaston, Mecklenburg, li and York Counties and the States of North and South Carolina have designated, or
- , wl!! designate, a series of evacuation routes leading from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers. Maps showing these routes will be widely distributed in the EP2 to guide people expeditiously to their designated reception center.
CAPACITIES OF THE EVACUATION ROUTES in general, the capacity of an evacuation route is determined by the capacities of its intersections, rather than by the capacity of the road at non-intersection locations. For most of the evacuation routes, the capacity is determined at a critical intersection, or " bottleneck" location. These are locations where: 1) the
.i evacuation route has a high traffic volume, and 2) cross-street traffic volume at 'f the instersection is high, reducing the amount of time available for the major evacuation flow to enter the intersection.
The capacity of an intersection is based on maximum vehicular flow of 1,500 vehicles per lane hourly, with full assignment of the right-of-way (that is,1,500 vehicles hourly if there is no intersecting traffic).I At the critical intersections
- 1. _ Highway Capacity Manual, 1965, Highway Research Board Special Record Number 87.
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1 which are establishing the capacity on the evacuation routes, the total capacity is adjusted downward to 80 percent of the maximum to a!!ow for intersecting traffic. The resulting capacity is 1,200 vehicles per lane per hour. The capac!, ties of each of 18 major routes out of the EPZ are indicated in Table 5. EVACUATION TRAVELSHEDS .i .l The travelshed of a particular evacuation route is the " catchment" area of population for that route; that is, the area for which that route is the f astest
- means of exit from the EPZ.
t i The travelsheds for the evacuation routes in the Catawba EPZ are determined by extending the major cvacuation routes, as identified in Figure 10, so that all of the , road systems in the EPZ connect to one or another of the evacuation routes. This process is simple for those sections of roadway immediately adjacent to the major evacuation routes, where it is obvious which sections of roadway feed any given evacuation route. For sections more distant from the major evacuation routes, the evacuation path is not as clear, and routings are made on the basis of travel time estimates. Some sections of roadway are midway between evacuation routes, and are equally well served by two different routes. These areas define the boundaries between the travelshed areas for different evacuation routes as indicated in Figure 11. i i DISTRIBUTION OF TRAFFIC TO THE EVACUATION ROUTES The population of the travelshed area for each evacuation route was determined in two steps. First, the EPZ was subdivided into 160 segments, each defined by its ] distance and direction from the nuclear station. Census data for 1980 was used to j determine the population of each segment. The population within each segment was then apportioned to the routes leading from that segment out of the EPZ. 1 Table 6 shows the population of the travelshed for each of the major routes. a 1 39 i
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TABLE 5. CAPACITY OF MAJOR EVACUATION ROUTES Number Outbound Evacuation of Lanes! Type of Road Capacitv2 Lyle Boulevard EB 4 Urban Arterial 2,400 I-77 SB 4 Interstate 3,000 US 21 SB 4 Semi-Rural Art trial 3 2,400 SC 901 (SC 72) SB 4 Semi-Rural Arterial 2,400 SC 322 SB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 US 321 SB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 i SC5WB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 ! SC 161 WB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 York 150 WB 2 Rural Secondary 1,200 SC 55 WB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 i US 321 NB 4 Rural Arterial 2,400 t NC 274 NB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 NC 279 NB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 NC 160 NB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 NC 49 NB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 i I-77 NB 4 Interstate 3,000 US 521 NB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 SC 160 EB 2 Rural Arterial 1,200 1 ]' 1. Total lanes, both directions.
- 2. Hourly vehicles, outbound only. Obtained from Highway Capacity Manual, 1965, Highway Research Board Special Report Number 87.
l 3. Semi-rural areas are characterized by light density development along roadside.
- 4. SC 901 changes from four to two lanes near EPZ boundary, but SC 72 provides a lane to carry half the traffic the rest of the way out of the EPI.
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t TABLE 6. TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND CAPACITIES FOR MAJOR EVACUATION ROUTES Population Vehicles Hourly Hours of Evacuation . Assigned Assigned Vehicle Traffic Route to Routel to Route 2 Capacity Flow 3 , f Lyle Boulevard EB 4,459 1,917 2,400 0.8 l l I-77 SB 8,079 3,473 3,000 1.2 I j- US 21 SB 15,897 6,835 , 2,400 2.8 SC 901 (SC 72) SB 13,556- 5,829 2,400 2.4 SC 322 SB 5,284 2,272 1,200 1.9 i US 321 SB 2,281 980 1,200 0.8 l SC5WB 1,763 758 , 1,200 0.6 SC 161 WB 2,468 1,061 1,200 0.9 ,, York 150 WB 1,470 632 1,200 0.5 l SC 55 WB 1,286 552 1,200 0.5 t US 321 NB 3,275 1,408 2,400 0.6 NC 274 NB 1,068 459 1,200 0.4-
; NC 279 NB 4,529 1,947 1,200 1.6 NC 160 NB 1,721 739 1,200 0.6 I* NC 49 NB 2,213 1,200 951 0.8 l-77 NB 10,298 4,428 3,000 1.5 US521NB 1,525 655- .1,200 0.6 :
! SC 160 EL 4,926 2,118 1,200 1.8 i
- 1. Based on apportionrnent of population (Chapter IV) to the evacuation travelshed areas (Figure 11).
! 2. Based on vehicle ownership data from the 1980 census (Appendix B). I. lf 3. Assumes continuous flow of all traffic assigned to that route. lI 4 42 9 t *
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RELATIONSHIP OF EVACUATION TRAFFIC VOLUMES AND ROUTE CAPACITIES Table 6 summarizes, for each of the 13 individual evacuation routes, the traffic
~
capacity of the route and the volume of evacuation traffic assigned to that route. ,: The resulting hours of traffic flow are then calculated. This measure does not j
~
- I represent the total evacuation time; for example, it does not include the time .
ll needed for notification or for preparing to leave home. Rather, the " Hours of r
- I I
Traffic Flow" statistic is an indication of th,e level of traffic congestion that can ; 'i be anticipated on the route. , t .' l, 1 t 0 t e a
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4
CHAPTER VII.
SUMMARY
OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES j CONDITIONS AND TIME PERIODS Evacuation time estimates are made for two conditions:
- 1. Fall / winter day, with normal weather conditions. This condition,-as explained in Chapter V, represents the " critical" time period for which evacuation times are likely to be at their maximum. The
~
maximum transient population is assumed to be in the EPZ at this time.
- 2. Fall / winter day, with severe weather conditions (defined as a winter storm, with icy road conditions). This case represents the " critical" time period (as explained in Chapter V) under unfavorable weather conditions which further extend the required evacuation times.
Detailed evacuation times are first calculated for the " fall / winter day" (normal i weather) conditions, then adjusted to yield the " fall / winter" day (severe weather) conditions. METHOD FOR ESTIMATING EVACUATION TIME Population Sernents Evacuation time is estimated separately for each of the three population groups discussed earlier: (1) permanent resident population, (2) transient population and, (3) special facility population. These evacuation time estimates assume that effective local preparedness plans are in operation, and that virtually complete coverage of the EPZ population with a prompt alerting and notification system is achieved. This notification time reflects the siren coverage expected with the system 'aiready designed. 44 ~em--o~e - ,m-m -e w r -.= w - menw - e,--
-t t-L 1 4 Action Steps J Each population segment follows a specific sequence of action steps in evacuating the EPZ. (See Chapter V for a detailed discussion of these steps.) The time needed
, to complete each of these steps is stated as the distribution relating the fraction of l the population completing a particular step to the elapsed time after that action
] step is first started. . I f Time Required for a Series of Action Steps
'The total evacuation time is calculated by linking together the time required to complete the individual steps. The resulting total time for evacuation is calculated l (as are tne times for the individual steps) as a distribution of time, showing the } fraction of the population which completes the total evacuation process within a.
given amount of elapsed time. The EVACURVE program (Appendix C) is used to compute these elapsed times. Distribution of the Traffic to the Evacuation Routes f The evacuation traffic is distributed to the available roads out of the EPZ
, (Chapter VI). Delays due to traffic con ~gestion :. calculated, and the evacuation i times are adjusted to reflect these delays.
.i . EVACUATION TIME FOR THE PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (VEHICLE-OWNING), FALL / WINTER WEEKDAY, NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
- t The evacuation sequence for the permanent resident vehicle-owning population includes five steps: (1) Receive Notification, (2) Leave Place of Work, (3) Work-to-Home Travel, (4) Prepare for Evacuating Home and, (5) Drive Out of the EPZ. The time required to complete each of these steps is established. Then, a total evacuation time for the vehicle-owning population is obtained by combining the time required for each of the five action steps.
1 - ll 3 45
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- 2 . .
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-1 1
Receive Notification
*k Some of the vehicle-owning permanent resident population receives the broadcast information.almost immediately; for example,10 percent of this population is .j assumed to receive broadcast information in 15 minutes (Table 7). These are individuals who immediately comprehend the notification and promptly tune into the EBS broadcasts. This group also includes individuals already listening to radio and television broadcasts and are, therefore, informed immediately of the emer-i gency and the need to evacuate the EPZ.
r3 TABLE 7. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR
" RECEIVE NOTIFICATION" STEP
-l
- } Estimated
- 1 Time After Start of Percentage of Population
- l}i Notification Receiving Notification 1
ij. 15 minutes 10 >1 20 minutes 10 25 minutes 30 30 minutes 30 35 minutes 10 40 minutes 5 45 minutes 5 li i A large fraction of the population of the EP2 is estimated to receive the broadcast information between 20 and 30 minutes af ter the start of notification. These individuals require several minutes to comprehend the notification, and then several more minutes to tune'into the EBS broadcasts. At the high end of the range, some of the population (10 percent of the total) are assumed to require over 35 minutes to receive the broadcast information. These
- 46 I
s s
% N 4W re _,6*WE,'m*'O'- 3'DSG8- F P E' M'*^N8"@8""T- * #
1 l 1 are mainly persons not reached immediately by the notification system, not under-standing the significance of the siren warning, or without agcess to a radio or television set. This element of the population is notified, in general, by supplementary methods, such a mobile public address, etc.
- ) It is estimated that all of the population receives the broadcast information within I
45 minutes of the start of notification. n . 3 Leave Place of Work 'l
; it is estimated that a sizeable portion of the permanent resident vehicle-owning 4
i population can leave work within 10 minutes after receiving the broadcast i information, or af ter this information is conveyed to them by their employer ti (Table 8). In general, these are workers not having managerial responsibility or ] whose jobs do not require shutdown time. 1 1 TABLE 8. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR j " LEAVE PLACE OF WORK" STEP Estimated j Time After Start of ' Percentage of Workers
- 1. Notification Leaving Place of Work
-1 !. 10 minutes 50 i. i. 15 minutes 30 i i-20 minutes 10 30 minutes 5 I l 45 minutes 5 4 Another large group of workers (an estimated 40 percent of the total) will need between 10 and 20 minutes to leave their place of work. These are employees 1 whose jobs require some shutdown time, and managers who remain until other employees have lef t. Y o l 47 L__ _ _ .. _ _ -
i I I l l l l I i 1 , i 1 At the high end of the range, an estimated 5 percent of the workers require over 30 mintues to prepare for leaving work. These in.dividuals are mainly managers, 'I persons responsible for securing cash or property, and persons needed to shut down j industrial processes. _ All employees complete preparation to leave their place of work within 45 minutes of receiving the broadcast information (Table 8). Work-to-Home Travel The time needed for this step is similar to that needed for the daily trip home . during the af ternoon peak hour. This time depends primarily on the dist'ance from work to home. This distribution of estimated travel-to-home time is for only those workers having their residence and place of work in the EP2. At the low end of the range, an estimated 50 percent of the workers can complete the trip home within
! 5 minutes (Table 9). Another large group of workers live within 5 miles of their job i
j and can return home in 10 to 15 minutes. At the upper end of the range, an
- l estimated 20 percent of all employees will need more than 15 minutes for their travel home.
7{ TABLE 9. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR
" WORK-TO-HOME TRAVEL" STEP Time Af ter Workers Estimated Begin to Leave Percentage of Workers Place of Work Arriving at Home 5 minutes 50 10 minutes 30 15 minutes 10
._ 20 mintues 10 Some employees working outside the EPZ, particularly at locations near the EPZ 3, boundary, will return home before the EP is closed to entering traffic and will l
43
- _ , _ . . _ . . . _ _ _ _ . . . =_. _ - . . . _ . .
il
~
evacuate in the same manner as vehicle-owning households. However, employees ii who work at some distance outside the EPZ may not be able to enter the EPZ since [1j incoming traffic will be restricted as soon as possible af ter the start of the evacuation. . _ Prepare for Evacuating Home
; The time needed to prepare for evacuating the home depends on three fac-
^ tors: (1) whether or not an adult member of the household is home at the time of notification, (2) the number of dependents in the household, and (3) the amount of household property to be secured prior to evacuation. At the low end of the range, an estimated 15 percent of all the vehicle-owning population can prepare for evacuating their households within 20 minutes af ter the arrival of the workers from their jobs (Table 10). These are generally households with an adult member present at home, with few dependents, and no property to be U secured. TABLE 10. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR q " PREPARE FOR EVACUATING HOME" STEP Estimated Percentage Time After Workers of Vehicle-Owning Arrive Home' Population Leavini Home 15 minutes 10 20 minutes 5 25 minutes 10 30 minutes 15 35 minutes 15 _. 40 minutes 25 50 minutes 10 60 minutes 5 95 minutes 5 1 [ w 49 .? V ,. - . . - . - . - - - -. - - - - - . , n . ~ ~~.-- - - -
l i 1 l l i
;j An estimated 30 percent of the vehicle-owning population can prepare to leave home within 40 minutes of the arrival of household workers. These are likely to be ;, households with dependents at home and a typical single-family residence to secure. . _ ,t At the upper end of the range, an estimated 20 percent of the population requires over 40 minutes to prepare for evacuating their homes. Generally, these are households with more than one dependent and extensive household property to be secured (for example, a farm).
Final Departure Curve Figure 12 illustrates the distribution of time needed by the EPZ population to ^
.1 complete each of the evacuation steps. The final departure curve (that is, the time .l needed to complete all action steps except the final driving from the EPZ) is 11 completed at 3 hours,10 minutes after the start of notificaiton.
E1
- Drive Out of the EPZ i
s. The time needed for the final step," Drive Out of the EPZ," depends on the level of
;i traffic congestion encountered on the specific evacuation route taken. On routes with no traffic congestion, a maximum of 15 minutes is needed to d-ive out of the EPZ, and for such routes the total evacuation time is 3 hours,25 minutes (3 hours, 10 minutes as noted in Figure 12, plus 15 minutes driving time). On some routes with traffic congestion, driving times will be determined by traffic delays, as discussed below.
Routing - Most motorists will drive out of the EPZ on the designated evacuation routes as identified in Chapter VI of this report. Some motorists will drive out on roads not designated as evacuation routes. I $ e 50 . R t f __ .~.
- g. - - - - . ~ ~ ~ ~ - - - - - - - - ~ . - -
l ll < l l\ 100 k s 9
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t 80 1
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E b 20 - 10 - l 15 30 45 00 15 30 45 00 15 30 45 00 15 30 45 00 15 30 45 00 1 flour 2 Hours 3 Hours 4 Hours 5 Hours Time from Start of Notification Figure 12. Evacuation Time for the Permanent flesident Population (Auto-Owning)
o . i 4 Public agencies will give routing advice for this travel by means of preparedness plans prior to the emergency and through information broadcasts during the actual
?
evacuation. t; Traffic Control - At critical locations-primarily key intersections within the j EPZ-traffic will be controlled by State and local law enforcement agencies as . -1 established in local preparedness plans. This traffic control will accomplish two 4
- J purposes
- (1) ensure orderly traffic flow at that particular location, and (2) direct motorists to the best available route out of the EPZ.
s i
- j During the evacuation, normal traffic control will continue, two-way streets will j operate in their usual manner as two-way streets, and traffic control devices, such as signals, will continue to it.netion. The only exception will be the replacing of
- j traffic signal control at some key intersections with traffic direction by law
- enforcement officers.
Method for Analyzing Evacuation Traffic' Flows - The evacuation traffic flow is analyzed with a computer program package consisting of two modules:
- 1. EVACURVE, which calculates the final departure curves (Figure 12) giving the distribution of times at which the vehicle-owning popula-tion completes preparations to leave home and enters the road system. .
-l The EVACURVE module calculates the departure curve from the series of time distributions for completing each step of'the evacua-tion. sequence. Statistically, each time distribution for an individual j. i step is a conditional probability distribution; the final departure curve is obtained by computing the joint probability distribution of all the steps. i. p 2. il The QUEUE module, which simulates the flow of traf.fic through the evacuation routes, and identifies the location and extent of traffic ] congestion. ] Inputs to the QUEUE module are the evacuation network and the distribution of traffic onto this network. The program then calcu-lates the arrival and departure of traffic at all locations throughout the evacuation network. This simulation is iterative, being repeated for 15-minute intervals of the evacuation period. 1; 1 52 l
o . I j . i The QUEUE module identifies locations at which traffic congestion occurs, and calculates the extent of such congestion. Measures which are computed include the time period over which congestion occurs at a particular location, the maximum delay experienced by a vehicle
, passing through any congested location and the extent (distance) of 1 . congest!on on the evacuation road network.
Traffic Congestion - The QUEUE program shows that on 6 of the 13 major routes out of the EPZ, the road capacities exceed the rate at which vehicles leave o households. On these routes, there is no congestion at any point in the evacuation 1 process, and the time needed to drive out of the EPZ is determined solely by the
; free-flow travel time.
l l' On 11 of the 18 major routes, traffic back-ups (queues) will form during some part i of the evacuation process. These are caused as the vehicle-owning population ] completes the necessary preparations to leave thier homes and enters the street system at a rate greater than the capacity of that street system to carry them. As a consequence, traffic begins to back up, starting at critical intersections, where:
- 1. Substantial volumes of evacuating traffic converge onto the evacua-tion route
- 2. The capacity of the evacuation rotue is restricted by a bridge, ramp, pavement width, etc.
- 3. Cross street traffic is substantial, reducing the amount of time I available for the movement of evacuating traffic at that point i
i . Traffic congestion first appears as the volume of traffic entering the street system j begins to increase sharply, at about I hour, 40 minutes after the start of notification. Once started, congestion spreads rapidly in the upstream direction, ; blocking traffic attempting to enter the evacuation route from side roads. In the i worst case, congestion spreads generally throughout an area, with all arterial and 1 collector streets and even some local streets blocked. ! o . During the period in which this congestion is occurring. the rate of evacuation is { fixed by the capacity of the street system and is no longer determined by the rate y at which the population finishes preparations to leave their households. Motorists l 53 4
,v.- - m, as a + *n' & '*
s
~
' leaving their homes and entering the street system during such a period are simply
" stored" in traffic queues in the street system.
, Possible i.evels of Traffic Congestion - Three possible conditions of traffic j congestion are analyzed in Figure 13. In the instance with no traffic congestion j (Type "A" in Figure 13), the departure from the EPZ depends solely on the rate at which people prepare to leave their households and drive, in a free-flow manner, out of the EPZ. At no point in the evacuation period does traffic congestion slow this progress out of the EPZ. Seven routes out of the Catawba EPZ have this pattern of traffic flows.
l l On routes where traffic congestion occurs (Types "B" and "C" in Figure 13), traffic j congestion appears when the rate of vehicles entering the street exceeds the 6 j capability of the street to carry them. Congestion continues to build as long as the l rate of vehicles entering the street system continues to exceed the vehicular capacity of the evacuation route. At some point in the evacuation process, the rate at which vehicles enter the street system reaches a maximum and begins to decrease. i i Congestion begins to diminish as the rate of vehicles entering the street system
- begins to fall below the capacity of the evacuation route to carry them. This decrease in traffic congestion continues until the queues disappear and free traffic flow is restored on the evacuation route.
q In less severe instances of congestion (Type "B" in Figure 13), this occurs before the population has finished preparations to leave home. From the point at which congestion ends until the completion of e'vacuation, the rate of evacuation is once again determined by the' rate at which households complete their preparation to leave home and enter the street system. Eight routes out of the Catawba EPZ have this traffic pattern. 54
1 l A. FREE TRAFFIC FLOW, NO CONGESTION e Out j r of EPZ s *j Prepare TD
-Leave Home '
V E E f% ~- Evacuation Rate 1 3 Determined by j g f f Free Flow g
/ [ Driving Time q .. Time >
li l t
- 8. CONGESTION OCCURS AND ENDS BEFORE ALL POPULATION LEAVES HOME
^
j - Prepare to {e*YLr'eeF,, F Restored - Leave Home
- N' \ I _* b j
- c. %/ [ [ Evacuation Rate 3
7 f p
,8 f3v Determined by Road Capacity -
O # B # A Free Flow Ends
, Congestion,
- , Period C. CONGESTION CONTINUES AFTER ALL
., POPULATION LEAVES HOME
,/
ll ,j g g Ptepare to Leave Home 7
/
[
}, \, 1 I
y
! A r
t 0- p Evacuation Rate 3 p , A Determined by ' j g Road Capacity * ., e i d E 2
\ Free Flow Ends , + Congestion Period +
'I . 1 Figure 13. Possible Levels of Traffic Congestion
- $5 ic l
' _'_____ .____r_ - - . . . ,
r . l .
- In the more severe instances of congestion (Type "C" in Figure 13), the traffic back-ups continue even af ter all the population has completed preparations to leave home. In this type of congestion, the back-ups are too large to be discharged before all population has completed preparations to leave home. In this case, evacuation times are no longer dictated by the time at which preparations for leaving home plus a free-flow driving time but, rather, by the traffic capacity of the evacuation route. Three routes out of the Catawba EPZ have this traffic pattern.
Location of Traffic Congestion - Figure 14 illustrates the location of traffic congestion in the Catawba EPZ, and indicates the extent of the anticipated congestion when it is at a maximum. As indicated in Figure 14, the greatest traffic cognestion occurs on US 21 southbound in Rock Hill. Summary of Evacuation Times for the i Permanent Resident Population (Vehicle-Owning) l 1 j Of the totd of 18 major evacuation routes in the Catawba EPZ,14 have a total evacuation time of 3 hours and 25 minutes (Figure 14). This evacuation time
] '
occurs on routes where there is either no traffic congestion at,all, or where there is some traffic congestion which ends before all the resident population completes preparations to leave home.
,. On the remaining three routes, the evacuation time reflects a level of congestion that is not dissipated by the time that the population has completed preparations to leave home. On those routes, congestion continues after the population has completed preparations to leave home, and this congestion then determines the -
total evacuation times. Evacuation time for US 21 is 4 hours, time for I-77 is 3 hours 45 minutes, and SC 901 is 3 hours 30 minutes.
'l Mur .
EVACUATION TIME FOR THE PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION (NON-VEHICLE-OWNING) The evacuation of the non-vehicle-owning population includes three steps:
! (1) Receive Notification; (2) Prepare for Evacuating Home; and (3) Evacuate Non-i Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses. The time required to complete each of these steps is established, and the total time for the evacuation of the non-vehicle-owning population is obtained by combining the time required for each of the steps.
Receive Notification =1 -1 Notification times and the explanation for these times are the same as for the l permanent esident vehicle-owning population discussed above. All of the non-j vehicle-owning population is notified within 45 minutes of the start of notification. l !f Preoare for Evacuating Home
) The time needed to prepare for evacuating the home depends on: (1) whether or
.j not an adult member of the household is home at the time of notification; (2) the number of dependents in the household; and (3) the amount.of he,usehold property to be secured before the family can evacuate, It is estimated that 20 percent of the non-vehicle-owning population can prepare to leave home within 20 minutes of receiving notification to evacuate (Table 11). ,i Typically, these .are small households with few dependents 'and no property to secure before leaving. At the upper end of the range, it is estimated that 50 percent of the non-vehicle-owning population needs 30 to 45 minutes to prepare for leaving home. These are generally households with a dependent at home and a residence to secure before f ' leaving.
- i
'i
- 1 53 l
'I__,_..... . _ . . . . ._
.. l , u TABLE 11. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR
" PREPARE FOR EVACUATING HOME" STEP FOR NON-VEHICLE-OWNING POPULATION Time After Estimated Percentage Rec eiving of Population Completing Notification Preparations to Leave Home 4
15 minutes 10 ; 20 minutes 10 25 minutes 10 30 minutes 20 35 minutes 20 40 minutes 20 45 minutes 10 i i .,!l Evacuate Non-Vehicle-Owning Population in Buses i lj A bus fleet large enough to carry the non-vehicle-owning population in less than two round trips per bus out of the EPZ is assumed in estimating the evacuation time. Local plans call for this fleet to be drawn from school buses from York, {l Mecklenburg, and Gaston Counties, 'other nearby counties, and from the public j - transit system in Charlotte. It is estimated that one-half of the non-vehicle-owning population can be evacu-
; ated by 2 hours and 5 minutes af ter the start 'of notification (Table 12). The
- l' remainder of the non-vehicle-owning population is estimated to be evacuated by 3 hours af ter the start of evacuation.
1 a f '}. u . 59' __.7_-.- _ _ ._ - ~7.. _ -_ 7 _
~
i TABLE 12. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR " EVACUATE NON-VEHICLE-OWN!NG POPULATION IN BUSES" STEP Estimated Percentage of Non-Vehicle-Owning Time After Start of Population _ Notification Evacuated in Buses I hour,45 minutes 25
- 2 hours, 5 minutes 25
'i
- 2 hoars,25 minutes 25
- t 3 hours 25 i
!} $l Summary of Evacuation Times for the Permanent Resident Population ll (Non-Vehicle-Owning) The time required for completion of the various steps in the evacuation of the non-i{ vehicle-owning population is summarized in Figure 15. The determining factor in the time needed for the evacuation of the non-vehicle-owning population is the t: time needed for this population to complete preparations for leaving home and to j; assemble at the collection points. I EV ACUATION TIME FOR THE TRANSIENT POPULATION ! The evacuation sequence for the transient population includes three steps: l{ 1
! (1) Receive Notification, (2) Assemble Traveling Group, and (3) Drive Out of the 3l EPI. The time required to complete each of these steps is established. A total evacuation time for the transient population is obtained by combining the time required for each of the three action steps.
-1 Receive Notification Notification times and the explanation for these times are the same as for the permanent resident vehicle-owning population discussed previously. All of the 4
60 L__...___.__._ _ ._ . _ _
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s r - 00 uo l f 5 5 4 0 3 5 1 s r 0 u o = 0 l I 4 5 4 , ) g 0 i n 3 n T: g eO w p 5 1 h o-t t s n ru foA-r 0 ou io 0 H ac t sn
/ 5 3 i f
i t o i( Tn eo mN
// 4 0
3 N f t o r a i no ot t l au up i a
/
t S co aP 5 v 1 m J/ 0 o 0 H s f r u e o r m Et n 5d 1
.e is
/
i 2 T ee rR V$, u = / 5 4 g in Fe t = / 0 3 a n m
// / 5 1
P r e I I r J 0 ou y/ lI IllI Il 1l 0 H 1
/
= /I 5 4 I Y II IlII\ 0 3 = lllllI1 III1i I l 5 1 _ " . 0 5 0
/
".is aia e
E transient population is assumed to be notified within 45 minutes of the start of notification. '
. Assemble Traveling Group l!,
The traveling group (usually family or co-workers) is assembled and prepared for evacuation, it is assumed that some groups (fnr example, employees at work) can assemble and prepare for evacuation almost immediately. This is reflected in the distribution in Table 13, which estimates that 50 percent of the transient popula-tion can assemble their traveling group and prepare to depart within 15 minutes after receiving instructions to evacuate. TABLE 13. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR
" ASSEMBLE TRAVELING GROUP" STEP FOR TRANSIENT POPULATION Time After Estimated Percentage , Receiving of Population Assembling j Notification Traveling Group l
- l 10 20 a
i 15 30 ! 20 30 30 20 I At the other end of the distribution, some transient groups will require up to an I estimated 30 minutes to assemble their groups and prepare to evacuate. Examples of this situation are residents at seasonal homes at Lake Wylie who would have to complete certain preparations, such as securing boats and cabins, before evacu-ating the area. i l t-62 i I
, . . -- +
. +
_i i{ *
- i
.i Drive Out of the EPZ After assembling their traveling group and completing preparations to evacuate, the transient population will drive out of the EPZ using their private vehicles.
In evacuating the EI'Z, the transient population will encounter free-flow traffic j conditions (i.e., no congestion) throughout their trip out of the EPZ. This is a
- l ,
result of the small size of the transient population and the early stage at which they begin to evacuate. All transient population is evacuated from the EPZ before the major part of the traffic build up from the permanent resident population l begins to occur. ii,1 .t )j Summarv of Evacuation Times for the Transient Population
- i i! lt is estimated that some of the transient population in the EPZ evacuates within 45 minutes .of the start of notification (Figure 16). The transient population is
- estimated to complete their trips out of the EPZ at I hour and 45 minutes after the
,j start of notification. Unusual Concentrations of Transients 4 !l In some situations, unusually large concentrations of transient population may be i' I present within the EPZ at: (1) Carowinds Theme Park and (2) PTL grounds in York ,I
- ! County.
N i !, Evacuation times were estimated for both locations, under assumption of their
- maximurn reported attendance. For both locations, maximum reported attendances I
can be evacuated in less than the 3 hours and 25 minutes of the required time for vehicle-owning households in a congestion-fre evacuation). Consequently, it can be established that evacuation of unusual concentrations of transient population for Carowinds or PTL will not result in extending evacuation times beyond that required by permanent resident population.
~
f 63
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r 0 uo 0 L H 5 5 4 0 3 5
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? 0 0 Ho m i a
u 9, 2 T c a v y; 5 4 E
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EVACUATION TIME FOR THE SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (SCHOOLS) The evacuation sequence for the school population includes two steps: (1) Receive Notification and (2) Evacuate School Population in Buses. { Receive Notification j School administrations will be notified immediately through radio and telephone
} calls. Student bodies will then be notified immediately through school public address systems. After notification, preparation to leave the school premises is almost immediate (similar to a routine fire drill).
The majority of the school population is assumed to be notified within 15 minutes s of the start of notification (Table 14). . All school population is assumed to be notified within 25 minutes of the start of notification. 1 TABLE 14. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR
" RECEIVE NOTIFICATION" STEP FOR SCHOOL POPULATION Estimated Percentage
' Time After Start of Population of Notification Receiving Notification 10 minutes 10 15 minutes 40
' 20 minutes 20 j 25 minutes 10 ,
t i i
'I i
f Evacuate School Population in Buses t The determining factor in the time needed for evacuation of the school population . in buses is the time required for mobilizing the bus fleet and bringing buses to the '
.j schools.
i ' k
.f 65 3 i
'I
f .-
;i l
.]
.i A bus fleet sufficiently large to carry the entire schoci population is assumed in estimating the evacuation time. This fleet will be drawn from York, Mecklenburg, j and Gaston Counties, and from other nearby counties if necessary.
; As indicated in Table 15, an estimated 20 percent of the school population can be I
.; transported out of the EPZ within I hour after the start of notification. These 1
i students are transported in vehicles in regular use in the school districts in the EPZ and which can be readily mobilized. Another 60 percent of the school population is
;j .sssumed to be transported out of the EPZ by I hour and 30 minutes after the start of notification.
TABLE 15. TIME DISTIBUTION FOR
, " EVACUATE SCHOOL POPULATION IN BUSES" STEP '1 .j Estimated Percentage Time Af ter Start of of School Population Notification Evacuated by Bus ' .l 4 60 minutes 20 4 1 hour,15 minutes 35 I hour,30 minutes 25 1 hour,45 minutes 20 The students evacuated in these later stages are those riding in buses which are brought from outside the EPZ. !)
All students are evacuated from the EPZ within I hour and 45 minutes af ter start
- p. of notification. -
The distribution of the evacuation time for the school population is given in Figure 17. h 1 66
-', digneq m v .v e as , Me, -aw-?*i= , we w ;-**%-- a e-sw e e e
. .s a_ ._ __ .-
~~~ ~~
2_ ------------ z .___- -- '._ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ . _ . _ _ _ _ . _ . . _ _ __.__.__-.~ - -- l l I - g,V Th5T 00 I/ /
- 1 .
i 8
} 10 f a I em l O
c 50 I e i, - Il 1 E= 30 El l a
- Il l ~
1l A
- /l 15 I
30
/I 45 00 15 30 45 00 15 30 45 00 15 30 45 00 15 30 45 00 1 flour 7 Hours 3 Hours 4 Hours , 5 Hours '
Time from Start of Notification \ Figure 17. Evacuation Times for the Special Facilities Population (Schasis) 1
i - i EVACUATION TIME FOR THE SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATION (INSTITUTIONS) The evacuation of the popu!ation in institutions involves three steps: (1) Receive Notification; (2) Mobilize Population; and (3) Evacuate ins:ltutional Population in Buses or Special Vehicles. The time time needed to complete each of these steps is established, and the total time for the evacuation of the population in institutions is obtained by combining the time required for each of the three steps. l Receive Notification I Notification time is the same as for the vehicle-owning population discussed above. All of the population in institutions is assumed to be notified within 45 minutes af ter the start of notification. Mobilize Population i j For a significant part of the population in institutions, mobilization can be { accomplished almost immediately af ter notification of the need to evacuate. For j example, it is estimated that 70 percent of the population in institutions can be
; mobi!! zed to evacuate within 20 minutes af ter the start of notification (Table 16).
l This element of the population is typically ambulatory patients in hospitals, t J l TABLE 16. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR
" MOBILIZE POPULATION" STEP FOR POPULATION IN INSTITUTIONS j Estimated Percentage ! Time After Receipt Of Population in l Of Notification Institutions Mobilized I
j 10 minutes 30 20 minutes 40 30 minutes 30 At the upper end of the range, it is estimated that 30 percent of the population in t institutions requires up to 30 minutes for mobilization (Table 17). Typically, these v -l 68 , 8 n-,. e.n._- swe - s - r
j . . l i I are non-ambulatory patients in hospitals, or other persons (such as prisoners in t jails) for whom special treatment is necessary. Evacuate Institutional Population in Buses or Soecla! Vehicles l
.j A fleet of buses and emergency vehicles (ambulances, rescue vehicles, vans, etc.)
large enough to ca dy out the institutionalized population of the EPZ in a single round trip (buses) ..nd two round trips (emergency vehicles) is assumed in I estimating the evacuation times. The fleet of emergency vehicles will be drawn from operators in the EPZ and surrounding areas.
=4 It is estimated that 50 percent of the ambulatory population in institutions can be I! evacuated by bus by I hour and 35 minutes af ter the start of notification. The 4 ;3 remainder of the ambulatory population can be evacuated by 2 hours (Table 17).
i
- { It is estimated that 50 percent of the i.on-ambulatory population can be evacuated lj by emergency vehicle by I hour and 50 minutes after the start of notification. The
'l remainder of the non-ambulatory population can be evacuated by 2 hours and 45 minutes (Table 17). i
' TABLE 17. TIME DISTRIBUTION FOR " EVACUATE INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION IN BUSES AND SPECIAL VEHICLES" STEP Estimated Percent of Population
- I in Institutions Evacuated
.! Time After Start of Notification in Buses and Special Vehicles
] Ambulatory Persons (by bus)
- ) I hour,35 minutes
.l 50 2 hours '
- I 100 j Non-Ambulatory Persons (by emergency vehicle)
I hour, 30 minutes 50 2 hours, 45 minutes 100 Total, Institutional Population I hour, 35 minutes 50 2 hours,45 minutes q 100 ]- , 9 69 .1 .
. . , , , . . ~ - . . . . . - - - - - -
~ - -
. o
't ,~ l
, . 1 l
l The estimated time required for the completion of the individual steps in the evacuation of the combined institutional population (both ambulatory and non-ambulatory) is summarized in Figure 13. The determining factor in the time needed to evacuate the institutional population group is the time needed to complete two round trips out of the EPZ by the special vehicle fleet, mainly ambulances, i f A special vehicle (bus and ambulance) fleet large enough to evacuate the l popualtion in institutions in one and two trips, respectively, is critical to achieve the total evacuation time of 2 hours and 45 minutes for this population segment. If ( a sufficiently large bus and ambulance fleet could not be mobilized and additional trips out of the EPZ were needed (even by only a few of the vehicles), the total l evacuation time for the population in institutions would increase by approximately j 1 hour, to 3 hours and 45 minutes af ter the start of notification.
SUMMARY
OF EVACUATION TIMES FOR NORMAL CONDITIONS i Table 18 summarizes the evacuation times for normal conditions. As indicated in 4 this table the evacuation times vary according to the population segments considered. The maximum evacuation time for the entire EPZ, established by the
; time needed for the " Permanent Resient (Vehicle-Owning)" segment of the popula- ! tion, is 4 hours.
i EVACUATION TIMES UNDER SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS I Severe weather conditions for the Catawba Nuclear Power Station EPZ are defined as a severe winter storm, with accumulations of snow or Ice on the roadways within the EPI. - Severe weather conditions affect the evacuation process by reducing road capac;- ties, due to slower vehicle speeds and a reduction in vehicular capacity at 3 intersections. Typically, under adverse winter weather conditions, an intersection functions at only 60 percent of its normal capacity.1 h 1. Due to increase in headway between vehicles. 70 s 4 f U ., . . - , .
. . _ . _ . . ~ . . ... . . . - - _ . - -
1 s r 0 u _ 0 t o _ 1 _
; 6 _
5 _ 4 _ 0 3 1 5 - 1
; s
)
s 1 r n .
, 0 uo o 0 H i
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-_ 0 I
( n 3 o it l a 5 u 1 p n o
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o P c_; 0 ou 0 H a i t t y .
'*p6# ,;,.
i
;_ 3 ic l i
f i t c 5 o a Y*"c ,)* '. W
. 4 F N
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- _ 3 r a e t p
_ S S 5 e
-; _ 1 m o h g s f r
u e r t r o u_ ff 0 o m 0 t 8 2 T i f s e l f 5 4 i m
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t 1 TABLE 18.
SUMMARY
OF EVACUATION TIMES h l 1 s 3 1 a i i 3 ', i
- j E
ll 1 I ! 1 ij l- il y- i= g i 3[ - I 3 1- 1
=
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, 1 i ! - a 1 i is it h} 11 8! 11 i u h 2oan witNa Tuo wi< s North Carolina 337 134 634 233 1,200 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 (3) (3) South Caroline M3 IM 3,332 1,982 2,400 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 343 3:23 1:40 (3) (3) All Zones 120 310 6,204 2,215 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4). 3:23 3:23 1:40 (3) (3)
,! >" 16tain Five Viin j A.I 329 227 10,187 3,637 1,200 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 (3) ( 3) ) 61 2,631 1,131 2,388 924 1,200 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 1:43 2:30 C.I 6,161 2,649 16,827 6,007 1,200 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 1:43 2:30 01 1,414 608 109 39 2,400 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 (3) (3)
E.8 429 186 0 0 3,600 (1) (2) (3) (3) (6) (4) 3:23 343 1:40 (J) (3) ., F1 2,373 1,104 1,382 MS 3,600 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 343 1:4C 1:40 2:30
; AltZones 13,737 3,903 31,293 18,172 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23
. 3:23 1:40 160 2:30 2eaes ritm Ten win A.2 4,838 2,080 4,073 1,4 36 4,800 (1) (2) .(3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 I:40 2:43 4:13 62 9, 778 4,201 44.826 16,737 4,200 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 4:00 1:40 4:13 2:43 C.2 64.964 19,333 0 0 11,400 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 4r00 6:13 1t40 4:13 2:43 D.2 9,169 3, 94 3 0 0 4,300 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 l 3:23 1:40 2:43 4:13 f E.2 4,937 2,132 0 0 4.300 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 2:43 4:13 F.2 2,633 1,142 630 232 6,000 (I) (2) (3) (3) H) (4) 3:23 3:23 into (3) (3)
F.3 2,672 1,149 631 232 2,400 (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) 3:23 3:23 1:40 1 *0 2:30 Att*ones 32.220 18:433 (1) (2) (3) (3) 4) (4) 3:23 , 4:13 79,026l33,982 .):23 1:40 2:e3
- 1. See anstricution in Table 7.
.l '
- 2. See distrmtior s in Tables 8 and 9.
- 3. See distrmtions in Tables 10 and !!.
4 See centrmtsen in Taele 13.
- 3. No specal lacdaties in trese tones.
N 72' f . L 4..__...- .- _ _ _ , _ __ ._ - _ - -
[. t .
} ! Reflecting this reduction in capacity in the EPZ road system results in the adverse l condition time estimates as indicated in Table 18. As indicated in this table, the ;l time for the evacuation of the entire EPZ becomes 6 hours and 15 minutes under adverse conditions.
SUMMARY
OF TIMES FOR SELECTIVE EVACUATIONS Table 13 shows the times needed for the selective evacuation of the subareas within the EPZ. In the evacuation of most of the subareas, traffic congestion is not a factor, and the evacuation time depends only on the rate at which the resident population prepares to leave home. Thus, for most of the subareas, the selective evacuation time is 3 hours and 25 minutes under normal conditions. For some of the subareas, the evacuation time is determined by the extent of the traffic congestion present. The maximum evacuation time under normal conditions for any subarea is 4 hours for any group of subareas containing Zone C2. 1
'I h
7 T V $ 73 thqqu=w wer ese -se me e- a c ew . y w * * . . =, w wwg 7www%,, , _ e-- , .., ,,s. p 4
r *
'I Vill. CONFIRMATION OF EVACUATION d
.: INTRODUCTION
" Confirmation" of evacuation measures the extent of compliance with the evacua-tion order. Confirmation is conducted by local preparedness agencies, beginning at about the time that evacuation is estimated to be substantially completed.
PLANNED A.PPROACH TO CONFIRMATION Local plans for the confirmation process call for public safety agencies (fire and police departments), working at the direction of the Emergency Operations Centers (EOC's) of all counties within the EPZ, to assess the level of effectiveness of the evacuation. In the initW a;cs of evacuation, the confirmation process is intended to establish if the public is comprehending the notification and is, therefore, beginning to react. Intitial confirmation assessments will consist of reports from emergency workers, traffic control officers, observations of patrolling officers and aerial observations of traffic flows. At later stages in the evacuation, the confirmation process will estab!!sh the rate
+
at which the public is complying with evacuation orders. The results of the confirmation process at this stage will guide' the EOC's in directing remedial measures, such as intensified notification, additional EBS bulletins or door-to-door patrolling. At later stages in the evacuation, EOC's may request that local response agencies perform some of the following specific confirmation activities. - a e Observe outbound traffic flows and report on traffic volumes e- Count arrivals at reception centers and report on the results e Secure detailed reports from traffic control officers and perimeter control officers .U u 74 s.
. _,.y , -ne;d.,~y z L-~ ~- -~ - ~ - ~-~~ ' *~~" " ~
1 I I e Conduct limited door-to-door canvasses to determine extent of evacuation
, TIME REQUIRED FOR CONFIRMATION l
The time required for confirmation depends on the degree of assurance desired. For example, a survey of 100 percent of the EPZ population would assure a completely accurate measure of the success of the evacuation. On the other hand, such a survey would be lengthy and costly in terms of resources that would be needed for other resource activities occurring at that time. Partial surveys of the q EPZ population (samples) can offer a sufficiently high degree of re!! ability without
} incurring the cost of a full survey of EPZ population. '
At the 95-percent confidence level, an accuracy of 1 2percent can be obtained with a survey of 900 households. This indicates that in a survey of 900 households, there - is a 95 percent assurance that the estimated fraction of population evacuated is
.} within 2 percent of the "true" fraction evacuated (as would be established with a l
100 percent survey of all EPZ households). 'i . The time required for a " door-to-door" canvass yielding the accuracy described
;I above is I hour,40 minutes. The time is based on participation by 30 public safety personnel (fire or police) canvassing 30 households over a period of I hour, 40 minute. It is assumed that, in most instances, this canvassing would be performed in conjunction with other planned emergency response activities (for example, security patrolling of evacuated areas, patrolling for persons without transporta-
.l tion, etc.). a t. 75 a.. - .. - --
e e
- '~ , l t .
1 APPENDIX A POPULATION BY 22.5 DEGREE SECTORS l INTRODUCTION . s This appendix includes the follolwng distributions, arranged into 22.5 degree sectors and within 2,5 and 10 miles of the Catawba Nuclear Station: ,
- 1. Permanent population l'
- 2. Estimated evacuation vehicles of the permanent popu'ation
- 3. Estimated transient population j 4. Estimated evacuation vehicles of the transient population i>
O I 1 e
)
Il lI. tt- _ _,....._. . _ _ _ , - _ . . . . . , . . . _ . . _ . . . _ . . _ . , _ . . _
, _g
i l
,, s ,
l
;j ., Exhibit A 1. Permanent Population by Sector
.i
- I 3064 l
-1 N i209ei
[,1598 l NNW 1687 E ' l 1590l 1339 1457 M NW NE - n 10 Mus 1204 2382 WNW 133
, 229 605 ENE 3261
- l; 325 208 883
'i 158 247 0 73 2 g! -
V # o 44 W 150 1 18 14 425 E W 1013 /b S 6 son 2784 13223l
; 117 " ;
1647 42 368
^
2813 WSW 893 1498 6705 ESE 998
. [29361 %
968 3354 SW SE l 1313l l 4749l SSW 12,784 SSE g (24680l 0 to 10 Mi e d PDFULATION TOTALS filNG, WILES I PO[N1OM TOTAL MILES kQjTjo o.2 33s 02 537 25 10,540 05 11.077 s .io ,c7.co, o .to 7 F. , 7 s o A-2
== . - .
l . . l-
} . .
i l i Exhibit A 2. Estimated Evacuation Vehicles of Permanent Population LuuJ l 687l N l 902 is il NHW NNE
- i
- ) 725
.] @ 576 627 , [1128 l
- 1 NW NE i
10 Mitas
- ( a18 1024 i
- i
! WNW 572 98 260 ENE II l14991 }l 1402 140 89 5 I 50s l 380 3
68 106 063 g
'l % c3 29
' )! W 65 9 6 ! 183 E 436 as 3 , 1197 l 13861
% a .) 50 29s 708 147 588 1210 WSW 3g, g,4 2883 ESE I 1261 429
[ 3630l 't 416 1442 't SW SE l 564 l 12042 l i. L SSW 5497 SSE M g l1061d L i33ng i;i r=,' v- - m VENICLES ' - TOTALS RING MILES ' C i E VEMIC ES l TOTAL MILES e 02 231 O*2 231 j 25 1 4,531 05 il .3 , "I f0 s to l 29,108 0 1o 0 33.A70 > A-3 jl n - - . - -
. e l
h i Exhibit A 3. Estimated Maximum Transient Population
?
I 3806 l l 830 l N 1124011 NNW 2602 NNE 0 2755 l 311 l l 424] NW . NE 10 Mitts 0 l'i WNW 99 77s 9482 ENE
.l 1 01 0 46,000 l46359 311 21
,o, W o i 3 13 168 E i1130l g ,, es 0 826 l12071 D%c '/
0 gm $> 2358 j
, 13 3971 0
WSW 96 205 ESE I 92 l 12651 i 124461 ' l I l 0 0 SW SE I 536 I I4084l o o SSW SSE L21aJ S LnLJ d o to 10 Mt a [130571 POPULATION TOTALS RING. WILES l TOTAL MILES Cy vE PON lON , Tl0n 02 6.206 02 6,206 25 31.298 05 37,504 { 5 10 52,200 0 10 99.704 g A-4 j
Exhibit A 4. Estimated Evacuation Vehicles of the Maximum Transient Population
! l 296 l ,N i 442ei NNW 929 NNE O 984 ' @ , [ 151 l .l:
gw NE 10 Wilts O 6 WNW 277 353 3385 ENE l 01 0 111 75 5 16,422 m i 0 , 5 2 22 0 S O 30' W g am ra } 60 [ l 4071 0 9 4 295 O
? wh N
842 1418 j WSW 0 i; W 34 4516 73 0 ESE l873 l O
.} O SW SE (192 l g SSW -
SSE [949 l g % (1102 2l o*'to0 M ee YEHICLES TOTALS RIMC WILES I ' LAr E vtHICLES ll TOTAL WILES Cg1e( o2 ' 2,213 o2 4.eis 25 11,171 oS i 12,386 5 10 la,636 0 10 l 31,022 , A-5 l
~
. ~
APPENDIX B DERIVATION OF NON-VEHICLE-OWNING POPULATION AND I NUMBER OF CARS USED FOR EVACUATION i -l I The number of non-vehicle-owning households in the Catawba EPZ is derived on the s basis of the three-county vehicle ownership pattern as obtained from the 1980 census. VEHICLE OWNERSHIP IN 1980 1 i The vehicle ownership pattern for Gaston, Mecklenburg, and York Counties, as derived from the 1980 census,is shown below: Percentage of Households j Owned by Mecklenburg Average Households Caston County County York County for EPZ
, 0 10 10 10 10 1
1 32 34 30 30 2 38 38 40 40 3 or more 20 18 20 20 t As indicated in the above table,10 percent of the households in the three-county area do not own a vehicle. On the basis of the postulated household vehicle usage, the average number of vehicles per household used for evacuation is 1.30. On average, this represents a vehicle occupancy of 2.33 persons per vehicle. d 1 1 . B-1
\
L
,.-.~.._.-.. . _,,.._... . _ _
o . I . i i.
! APPENDIX C ; DESCRIPTION OF EVACPLAN MODELS USED ! IN THE ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES The PRC EVACPLAN package used for the analysis of evacuation times consists of -
two modules:
- 1. EVACURVE module, which establishes the rate at which the popula-tion of the risk area completes preparations to evacuate and enters (or attempts to enter) the relocation road network.
- 2. QUEUE module, which simulates the flow of traffic out of the EPZ, portrays th2 impact of traffic control measures employed, and identi-fles the location, extent and severity of any traffic congestion that occurs during the relocation process. The QUEUE module computes the total time needed for evacuation, on a route-by-route basis.
These modules incorporate features particularly important in the analysis of evacu-
'j ation times:
1
- 1. Dynamic - The EVACPLAN program recognizes that the entire i
process changes continuously as evacuation proceeds. For example,
' the rate of discharge of vehicles onto the roadway is neither a single event nor a steady rate, but rather is a distribution that varies with the elapsed time af ter the start of evacuation.
In a similar manner, traffic congestion does not occur in a regular manner throughout the area and throughout the entire evacuation process, but rather it appears at different locations and for different durations at these locations. Also, the severity of traffic congestion varies sharply from location to location, even within a single evacu-ation route.
- 2. Behavior-based - The EVACPLAN program recognizes that the popu-lation of the risk area will not tevacuate as a single body, with the entire population completing one step of the process (for example, the population will proceed at its own pace, with diff erent portions of the population at various stages of the evacuation sequence at any given time.
- 3. Probabilistic - The EVACPLAN program recognizes that the time distributions for completing each of the various relocation steps are, in the statistical sense, conditional probability, distributions, contin-gent on completion of the previous ste,= Total departure times-that is, the times needed for the entire preparation process-are e
C-1
i , e' i ,{ - derived by computing the joint probability distribution from the individual time distributions for each step. j 4. Sensitive to control measures - The EVACPLAN model can reflect .,. i the full range of measures that might be employed to improve the evacuation traffic flow. This range includes actions to regulate the flow of traffic onto the road system (demand measures), actions to increase the available road capacity for relocation flows (supply, measures), and actions to improve the capacity of the available roads (traffic control measures).
~ '
THE EVACURVE MODULE The EVACURVE module calculates the " departure curve" for the EPZ population; that is, the distribution of time needed for the EPZ population to complete prepa-rations to evacuate. The departure curve, therefore, also defines the rate at which the EPZ population enters (or attempts to enter) the evacuation route system. j The EVACURVE module calculates the departure curve from a series of time dis-4
) tributions needed to complete each step of the evacuation sequence. Statistically,
-l the time distribution for each individual step is conditional probability distribution;
-I the final departure curve is calculated by computing the joint probability distribu-i
-tion of all the. component steps.
i Inputs to the EVACURVE Module The series of action steps which comprise the evacuation sequence is identified. The time distribution required to complete each individual step of the evacuation sequence will be established. Methods for establishing these distcibations will be ' based on local preparedness plans, projections of shut-down times by employers and l Institutions (such as schools), driving time to return home and distribution of time i i needed for securing households as derived from evacuation studies for nuclear . power plants and natural disasters. ' The time distributions for each step are characteristically in the "S-curve" form. This reflects the behavioral realities of the risk area population; that is, some of the population will complete a particular step rapidly (the low " tail" of the curve), 3 l C-2 4
.w. .. .-% % =% .t.e - '--
1 most of the population will complete the step in times which cluster around the center of the distribution (the steep central portion of the curve), and a small part of the population will require a very long time for the =;ep (the " tail" at the high end of the distribution. I
!F s Computation Procedure for the EVACURVE Module The EVACURVE module summarizes the input time distributions for the individual action steps of the evacuation sequence (Exhibit C-1).
1 The final departure curve is displayed in graphical and tabular form (Exhibits C-2
- l and C-3).
1 j THE QUEUE MODULE
\;
- l The QUEUE module begins with the evacuation road network (that is, the system of ;
Il roads available for evacuation) the distribution of population onto this network. !
} The QUEUE module then simulates the traffic flow through the evacuation road .i ! ;j network. This simulation is iterative; tnat is, it is repeated for small increments of ! time. Consequently, the status of traffic congestion is calculated at each time i I
interval, and the dynamic aspects of traffic flow and congestion can be traced. Inputs to the QUEUE Module Inputs to the QUEUE program are: i. 4 Road network used for evacuation. This includes the major evacu-ation routes, branches to these routes (evacuation subroutes), and l, points at which the population enters the evacuation route system (loading points).
- 2. Departure curve for the. risk area population, which gives the rate at which the population enters the road system. The departure curve is the direct output of the EVACURVE module as described above.
! 3. Traffic flow parameters to reflect the capacity of the roads in the ll l relocation network. t ,,
! t I i1 lf C-3 i
l5 -_-, _.-- - . - - _ . . . . - --.-~~--
I j . Exhibit C 1. Example of input Time Ol5tribution5 for Evacurve Module of PRC Evacplan Program
* ................. IN,uf 015TRieuT 0N5 =..===============
DAY =WEEKENO-WINTER (VALUE5 IN PERCENT POPULATION) TIME FROM START RECEIVE TIME FROM RECEIPT LEAVE 0F NOTIFICATION MESSAGE OF INFORMATION WORK i ................. ..... e 0: 5 0.0 0: 5 0.0 0:10 0.0 0:to 50.00 0:15 10.00 0:15 30.00 10.00 I 0:20 10.00 0:20 0:25 30.00 0:25 0.0 0:30 30.00- 0:30 5.00 l 0.0 0:35 10.00 0:35 i 0:40 0.0 1 0:40 5.00 0:45 5.00 0:45 5.00 -l 0:50 0.0 0:50 0.0 l 0:55 0.0 0:55 0.0 tt 0 0.0 1: 0 0.0 l 1: 5 0.0 1: 5 0.0 1:to 0.0 1:to 0.0
. 1: 15 0.0 1:15 0.0
' 1 20 0.0 1 20 0.0 1 25 0.0 1325 0.0 1:30 0.0 1:30 0.0 1 35 0.0 1:35 0.0 1:40 0.0 1:40 0.0 1:45 0.0 1:45 0.0 1:50 0.0 1350 0.0 TIME AFfER TRAVEL TIME AFTER PREPARE LEAVING WORM HOME ARRIVAL HOME EVACUATE 0: 5 50.00 0: 5 0.0 l 0:10 30.00 0:10 0.0 0: 15 10.00 0:15 10.00 0:20 10.00 0:20 5.00 l 0:25 0.0 0:25 10.00 0:30 0.0 0:30 15.00
} 0:35 0.0 0:35 15.00
{ 0.0 0:40 25.00 0:40 j 0:45 0.0 0:45 0.0 0:50 0.0 0:50 10.00 0:55 0.0 0:55 0.0 1: 0 0.0 1 0 5.00 1: 5 0.0 1: 5 0.0 trio 0.0 1:10 0.0 1:15 0.0 1:15 0.0 1:20 0.0 1:20 0.0 1 1:25 0.0 1:25 0.0 1:30 0.0 1:30 0.0 1:35 0.0 1:35 . 5.00 1:40 0.0 1:40 0.0 1:45 0.0 ft45 0.0 j 1:50 0.0 1:50 0.0 h t . PRC V00RHEE5 EVAC PLAN PACM i 4 :
- C-4
~~ * * * - - a %. . . . .
4; . ff I' Exhibit C 2. Example of Plotted Distribution of Final Departure Curve
- from Evacurve Module of PRC Evacplan Program 1
TIME 0157R18UTIONS FOR EVACUATION STEP 5 DAY.WEENEND. WINTER . I,
- I I 800x 0F POPULATION j' .
x 0F PREPARED TO LEAVE AREA WITHIN
- . POPULATION 3:80 HOURS
- ,oox ...........l....ooo0oo0o0o...................................
o ... ..... o .. .. 4 o . 7sx
...........l.....+.....l...........l.-.........l.........-.l.
sex
.........o.1...........l...........l...........l...........l.
- 4; 6
ass
...........l...........l...........l...........l...........l.
0 +
- 0 +
- i o00o
.................l...........l...........l...........l.
0:30 1:00 1:30 2:o0 2:30 TIME FROM START OF NOTIFICATION (HOURS) O . RECEIVE NOTIFICATION
. LEAVE WORK
+ = ARRIVE HOME LEAVE AREA PCC VOORHEES EVAC PLAN PACK
- )
C5
._w_. _
O t>
~*
1 il Exhibit C 3. Example of Final Departure Curve (Tabular Form) i from Evacurve Module of PRC Evacplan Program 4 I 1 1
. I i
l FINAL EVACUAT!DN O!5TRIOUTION i OAY-WEEKEND-WINTER (VALUES IN PERCENT)
-----.-.---.---- MINUTES ----------------
TIME 5 to 15 20 25 30 Os 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.25 0:30 0.67 1.76 3.49 5.31 7.62 9,78 I 1 0 11.70 12.09 10.83 8.95 7.02 5.23 1:30 3.47 2.52 f.66 1.14 0.89 0.99 i 2: 0 1.18 1.04 0.76 0.54 0.34 0.18 2:30 0.12 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01 3: 0 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3:30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 di 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4:30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5:30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 j 6 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6:30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7: 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 ' O.0 NOTE: TIME !$ IN HOUR $ AND MINUTES AFTER START CF NOTIFICATION. A POINT ON THE O!STRIBUTJON !$ FOUNO BY A00!NG THE COLUMN
- MINUTES
- TO THE ROW
- TIME *.
1 i C f t b_ ___= = _ _ .. _ _ .
c 9 b 1 l The evacuation route network within the EP: is coded into a form needed for entry into the QUEUE program. This coding process consists of:
- 1. Designating the major evacuation routes. The number of such routes
'? depends on the specific corridor being considered: typically, there are two to five major evacuation routes in any given corridor.
- 2. Desij;nating the subroutes; that is, the roads that feed traffic onto the major evacuation routes. The number o! subroutes also depends on the specific corridor being considered; typically, there are two to four subroutes for each major relocation route.
1 3. Establishing the loading points, locations at which relocation traffic
! is assumed to be generated and at which it enters the relocation road system. Loading points are an abstraction of the actual road system, representing concentrations of households, workplaces, etc. Typi-cally, a total of 10 to 15 loading points is established for each of the major evacuation routes.
Comoutation Procedure for the QUEUE Module i The QUEUE program calculates, for each time interval, the arrival and departure of traffic at all locations throughout the evacuation road system. Arrival rates of traffic are determined by:
- 1. The output of the EVACURVE module, which establishes for all evac-i uation routes the rate at which traffic enters (or attempts to enter) the evacuation road syttem, and
- 2. The loading of traffic onto the individual evacuation routes. This loading is made on the basis of population concentrations and special activity centers.
The rate of discharge of traffic through intersections is determined by:
- 1. The available lanes of roadway
- 2. The traffic flow rate, typically 1,200 vehicles per hour on each departure lane for surface roads, and 1,800 per lane on freeways.
Traffic flow rates can be adjusted to reflect adverse conditions or
- i. other obstacles to free traffic flow.
Traffic queues at any given location are discharged at a rate proportional to their agnitude; i.e., the longer a queue the greater its priority at the intersection li d r C-7 i gg e .gawe mmig. m.=w e. + wameeew W w- *" T ' " ' "
1 m u
- o m , 'l where the queue originates. This algorlthm simulates the traffic control that would be achieved by a competent traffic control officer on duty at such locations.
The QUEUE program identifies locations at which congestion occurs and calculates the extent of such congestion. Measures which are computed include the length
; (time) of the period over which congestion persists at particular locations, the .; maximum delay experienced by a vehicle passing through any congested location, 1
and the extent (distance) of congestion on the relocation road network. i
! Outputs of the QUEUE Module 1.
i A summary of all evacuation routes is prepared (Exhibit C-4). I 1 i For each evacuation route, a summary status report is prepared (Exhibit C-5). i A detailed tabular report of each congested location at which congestion occurs is prepared (Exhibit C-6). 9
} s .l, .
i
.i 'l, I'
i J !r l1 1 i! ij ll C-8. i! , A' _ , .-. . , . - . - . - - - . . . .- -
r-4 P l l l . , i i Ex'ilbit C 4. Example of Summary of Evacuation Times by Route, from Queue Module of PRC EvaCplan Program l i j' EVACUATION ROUTE
SUMMARY
i i TIME TO
- j EVACUATE i, ROUTE POPULATION VEHICLES (HOURS)
.I ;; ;;; ;;;;"---" " ;;;"" ";;;;" ~;;;;" 1 . SC 11 south 6222 2675 3:30 US 123 WEST 2504 1077 3:25
} SEC RTE 63 2340 1004 3:25 SC 59 702t 3019 3:45 SEC RTE 21 3900 1676 3:25 US 76 SOUTH 10800 4678 3:25 US 123 EAST 7541 3242 3:25 , SC 93 4514 1941 3:25 SC 183 EAST 2663 1145 3:25 k
l L. PRC V0ORHEES EVAC PLAN PACK l - t 1 l ~s C-9
- . . . . - .. . - - - . . , . . . - = .
'. ) ,
5
. \
4 Exhibit C 6. Example of Tabular Report for Specific Congested Location, i from Queue Module PRC Evacplan Program 4 i . 4 4 INTERSECTION: SC 11 & SEC RTE 198
>, ROUTE: SC 11 SOUTH TIME PERIDO: 6 11 1
ARRIVALS DEPART GUEUE QUEUE LENGTH LEG (VEH) (VEH) (VEH) lt ... (MILES) 1 305 85 0.3 2 51 18 0.1 1 3 300 d 0 0 0.0 TOTAL '354. 300 83 0.4
!" TOTAL ARRIVAL 5: 256. VEHICLk5 TOTAL BACKLOG: 39. VEHICLES NOTE: LEG t= MAIN APPROACH LEG i LEG 5 2.d=5!0E APPROACH LEGS LEG 3= EXIT LEC .
t i i
,, PRC V0ORHEES EVAC PLAN PACK I
6. i I'g I iI i i b '4 f I t ii t (; C-11 n-t l _ . _ . . . . _ . _ . . . - . _ . . . . , _ . . __ . . _ _ _ _ . . . .. .}}