ML20009H684
| ML20009H684 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | 05000471 |
| Issue date: | 08/03/1981 |
| From: | Rhonda Butler BOSTON EDISON CO. |
| To: | Adensam E Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8108100359 | |
| Download: ML20009H684 (59) | |
Text
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BOSTON EDISON COMPANY GENERAL OFFicts 800 UovLsTON STR[ET B D aTON. Massachusetts 0 2199 Rostui M. BUTLER
- 1
- MANAGER uuctEA. ..DateTs oE.A.T-E~T August 3, 1981 -
F liUCN[7198)m Director of Nuclear Reactor Regulation MMp Attention: Ms. E. Adensam, Chief Licensing Branch No. 4 % fg U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission y '
Washington, DC 20555 Pilgrim Station Unit #2 License Application Filed December 12,1973 (Docket No. 50-471)
Reference:
(a) NRC letter: R. L. Tedesco to R. M. Butler: " Evacuation time and population estimates for the first year of operation at Pilgrim Station Unit 2."
Dated: July 24, 1981
Enclosures:
(1) "An Update of the Population Distribution Around the Pilgrim Site." Dated: July 31, 1981 (2) " Major Roadway Improvements in the vicinity of the Pilgrim Nuclear Generating Station." Dated:
July 31,1981 l
Dear Ms. Adensam:
l Enclosed, as Enclosure (1), please find the updated population data requested by Reference (a).
Also enclosed, as Enclosure (2), is a description of the road network improvements projected to exist during the first year of plant operation.
As stated in Reference (a), the evacuation time estimates for the first year if plant operation will be forwarded by August 24, 1981.
l Question on the enclosed documents should be addressed to Mr. W. F.
Hickey. (617)424-2774.
Very truly yours, 8108100359 810803 h
DR ADOCA 05000471 PDR chq WFH/mam t
e l DOSTON EDIGON COM PANY l
I SERVICE LIST _
Office of the Secretary Francis S. Wright, Esq.
Docketing and Service Section Berman & Lewenberg U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 211 Congress Street Washington, DC 20555 Boston, MA 02111 Andrew C. Goodhope, Esq. Stephen M. Leonard, Esq.
Chairman, Atomic Safety and JoAnn Shotwell, Esq.
Licensing Board Assistant Attorney General
, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commonwealth of Massachusetts Washington, DC 20555 Environmental Protection Div.
One Ashburton Place Mr. A. 'ixon Callihan Boston, MA 02108 Union . -bide Corporation Post Office Box Y Edward L. Selgrade. Esq.
Oak Ridje, TN 37830 Patrick J. Kenny, Esq.
Mass. Office of Energy Resources Dr. Richard F. Cola 73 Tremont Street Atomic Safety & Licensing Board Boston, MA 02108 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washingtt , DC 20555 Henry Hermann, Esq.
50 Congress Street Atomic Safety & Licensing Panel Room 1045 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Boston, MA 02109 Washingte . CC 20555 Mr. & Mrs. Alan R. Cleeton 22 Mackintosh Street Jack R. Goldberg, Esq. Franklin, MA 02038 Office of the Executive Legal Director U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Willian S. Abbott, Esq.
Was ington, DC 2055E Suite 925 .
50 Congress Street .
Chief Librarian Boston. MA 02109 Plymouth Public Library North Street .
Plymouth, MA 02360 Atonis Safety & Licensing Appeal Panel U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555
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Enclosure 1 AN UPDATE OF POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AROUND THE PILGRIM SITE July 31, 1981
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page
- 1. INTRODUCTION 1-1
- 2. PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION 2-1
- 3. PEAK TRANSIENT POPULATION 3-1
- 4.
SUMMARY
4-1 APPENDIX A SEASONAL RESIDENT B ACKGROUND DATA APPENDIX B DAILY TRANSIENT BACKGROUND DATA
-111- ..
- 1. INTRODUCTION In response to NRC's request to provide evacuation time estimates for the plume exposure emergency planning zone (EPZ)
I defined for Pilgrim 2 at the approximate time of plant startup, it is necessary to develop population projections for the area. Population data are included in PSAR Section 21.3.
However, the PSAR information does not reflect the 1980 Census data since these data have only been available within the past several months. Furthermore, only the Census data for permanent resident population is available at this time.
Thus, as a starting point for the population ineut to the evacuation analysis, a review of the 1980 Census data has been made. In addition to the town by town population counts which are published by the Bureau of the Census, data for smaller subdivisions within the plume expousre EPZ wL obtained. Data for these smaller subdivisions (enumeration districts and blocks) enable the distribution of the permanent population within the plume exposure EPZ to be made more accurately than using only town level population breakdowns. Projections of the permanent population to 1990 have also been developed.
The peak transient component of population in the plume exposure EPZ has been estimated based on data previously submitted. This data is all included in Appendix 13A to the l Preliminary Safety Analysis Report. No new Census information related to this component of the population is available at
! this time.
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- 2. PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION 2.1 Introduction The purpose of this section is to provide an estimate of the permanent population within 50 miles of Unit 2 and a projection of the 1990 population. Data from several sources were used to develop distributions and projections of the permanent resident population within 50 miles of the Pilgrim site. This area includes portions of both Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Each data source is idtutified in the following subsections. The most recent Census data from the 1980 U.S.
Census and available population projections have been used in preparing these estimates.
2.2 Permanent Population within 10 Miles The area within 10 miles of the site is entirely within the State of Massachusetts. Ta ble 2-1 lists the towns located partly within 10 miles of the site. Also shown on Table 2-1 are the 1980 resident population and projected permanent resident population for 1990.- The greatest portion of the land area within 10 miles is within the boundaries of Plymouth.
Nearly all of this town is within the 10-mile radius.
Likewise, about half or more of the land area of Carver, Duxbury and Kingston is within 10-miles of the site. Small portions of Bourne, Plympton, Marshfield and Wareham are also included in this radius. Communities within the' plume exposure EPZ include Duxbury, Kingston, Plymouth and portions of Carver I and Marshfield.
Table 2-2 shows the estimated 1980 resident population distribution within 10 miles of the site. Table 2-3 presents similar information for 1990. The resident population for 1980 is estimated 49,416 and 58,365 for 1990. Subdivisions 2-1 ,
TABLE 2-1 TOWNS WITHIN 10 MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 Projected 1980 1990 Town Population Population Bourne 13,874 15,900**
Carver
- 6,988 7,250***
Duxbury* 11,807 12,900+
Kingston* 7,362 11,500***
Marshfield* 20,916 22,100+
Plymouth
- 35,913 43,400++
Plympton 1,974 3,850***
Wareham 18,475 22,350***
- Communities included within the plume exposure EPZ, Duxhury, Kingston, Plymouth and portions of Carver and Marshfield.
- Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Population Projections Prepared Under the 208 Water Quality Management Planning
. Program, Department of Environmental Quality Engineering, November 1979. The report indicated a 1980 value of 12,000 which was less than the 1980 Census. The 1990 value was adjusted upward by 1,900 to obtain the above estimate.
- Table 3, SRPEOD Projected Populations (Final Draft) includes " low", "most favorable", and "high" projections.
The above value is the high value. The "high" estimates for the other towns were also included above.
+ Interim Population Forecasts 1980-2010 MAPC Municipalities. Metropolitan Area Planning Council,1981.
++ Table B, 208 Water Quality Program, Old Colony Planning g Council, March 1977.
2-2 ,
TABLE 2-2 ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF 1980 PERMANENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES BY SECTOR Direc- Distance from Pilgrim Unit 2 (Miles) tion 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 Total N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NNE O O O E O O O NE O O O O O O L O O O O O O ENE O O O O O O O O E
ESE O O 15 0 0 0 15 SE 570 1,176 479 0 0 0 2,225 SSE 19 210 530 2,029 819 1,389 4,996 S 0 39 208 53 22 2,389 2,711 SSW 19 0 23 0 0 998 1,040 SW 0 39 123 65 349 497 1,073 WSW 0 77 236 3 217 2,518 3,051 W 58 95 475 1,254 4,522 9,562 15,966 WNW 117 0 0 0 711 10,278 11,106 NW 19 0 0 0 8 5,646 5,673 NNW 0 0 0 0 13 1,547 1,560 Total 802 1,636 2,089 3,404 6,661 34,824 49,416 l
i 2-3 .
TABLE 2-3 ESTIMATED OISTRIBUTION OF 1990 PERMANENT POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES BY SECTOR 01 rec- ,
Distance from Pilgrim Unit 2 (Miles) tion 0-]_ 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 Total N O O O O O O O NNE O O O O O O O NE O O O O O O O ENE O O O O O O O E O O O O O O O ESE O O 17 0 0 0 17 f.E 657 1,336 541 0 0 0 2,534 ,
SSE 22 242 611 2,358 852 1,635 5,820 S 0 45 242 63 26 3,434 3,810 SSW 22 0 31 0 0 1,849 1,902 SW 0 45 157 89 475 799 1,565 WSW 0 90 264 11 295 3,433 4,093 W 67 111 494 1,288 4,542 12,808 19,310 WNW 136 0 0 0 714 10,924 11,774 NW 22 0 0 0 8 5,791 5,821
- NNW 0 0 0 0 13 1,706 1,719 t
Total 926 1,869 2,357 3,809 7,025 42,379 58,365 l
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2-4 .
e of the tables which show a zero resident population indicate an uninhabitated area such as water.
The distribution of the permanent resident population for 1980 within 10 miles of the site was determined using 1980 Census data, the most recent U.S. Geological Survey Maps, and ,
results of a limited field survey performed in uTuiv 1991..
The procedures which were used are described below.
Within 10 miles of the site and within the EPZ, the current resident population was determined by reviewing the detailed 1980 U.S. Census of population including breakdowns by applicable enumeration districts and census blocks.
Populations of the census areas were assigned to sectors based on review of census district and USGS maps. The number of structures recorded on USGS maps was generally used as the basis for distributing populations within census areas covering several sectors.
The projected populations for towns in Massachusetts for year 1990 were obtained from sources indicated on Table 2-1.
The difference between the 1980 and 1990 town population totals was allocated to large areas based on a comparison of the 1970 and 1980 Census data. First, the future growth was assigned in a manner that reflected growth during the past decade. The growth assigned to broad areas was next allocated to the various sectors based on the 1980 Census data and on the USGS maps for the study area.
The EPZ has a 1980 estimated population based on the recent Census data of 60,576. This population would be broken down by towns as indicated in the following estimates:
Town Population within EPZ Carver (partial) 4,016 Duxbury 11,807 Kingston 7,362 Marshfield (partial) 1,478 Plymouth 39,913 Total 60,576 2-5 ,
C For 1990, the EPZ is projected to have a permanent resident population of about 73,530.
2.3 Permanent Population Between 10 and 50 Miles The 50-mile radius around the site includes portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Concentric circles were drawn with radii of 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 miles centered on the site. The circles were divided into the 22-1/2 U sectors with each sector centered on one of the 16 cardinal compass points.
The population distribution was developed for each area formed by the series of concentric circles and radial lines.
Table 2-4 shows the estimated 1980 population within 50 miles of the site. This estimate was developed from the 1980 U.S. Census of population data. The distribution of population in the area between 10 and 50 miles from the site was made by area allocation. The fraction of a town's area within each sector defined by the grid of concentric circles and radial lines was determined. The same fraction of each town's population was assigned to that segment.
. Table 2-5 shows the projected 1990 population within 50 miles of the site. The projections for the towns located between 10 and 50 miles of the site were based on the population change between 1970 and 1980. The same rates of change which occurred during that period were applied to the 1980 population counts to project the population to 1990. The only exception occurs where there was a decrease in population between 1970 and 1980. In those instances, it was assumed that the 1980 population remained constant through 1990.
4 2-6 ,
TABLE 2-4 ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF 1980 PERMANENT POPULATION BY SECTOR Direc- Distance from Pilorim Unit 2 (Miles) tion 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 Total N O O O O 30,916 30,916 NNE O O O O O O NE O O O O O O ENE O 535 3,482 0 0 4,012 E O O 3,294 341 0 3,635 ESE 15 0 5,875 13,095 0 18,985 SE 2,225 1.236 40,250 5,906 0 49,617 SSE 4,996 13,238 19,547 Cl 712 38,493 S 2,711 16,583 25,230 7,795 712 53,031 SSW 1,040 15,831 7,798- 316 359 25,344 SW 1,073 12,757 141,620 46,457 46,539 248,446 WSW 3,051 11,780 50,443 136,660 184,644 386,578 W 15,966 17,578 60,499 141,897 377,620 613,560 WNW 11,106 28,320 164,700 113,261 107,983 425,370 NW 5,673 39,600 206,743 821,487 635,549 1,709,052 NNW 1,560 26,623 28,296 104,220 414,120 574,819 Total 49,416 184,076 757,777 1,391,435 1,799,154 4,181,858 l
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TABLE 2-5 ESTIMATED OISTRIBUTION OF 1990 PERMANENT POPULATION BY SECTOR Direc- Distance from Pilarim Unit 2 (Miles) tion 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 Total N O O O O 31,663 31,663 NNE O O O O O O NE O O O O O O j ENE O 644 4,225 0 0 4,869 E O O 4,199 522 0 4,721 ESE 17 0 8,324 22,241 0 30,582 SE 2,534 1,891 67,381 8,419 0 80,225 SSE 5,820 21,702 32,330 0 960 60,812 S 3,810 26,491 39,849 31,661 1,110 82,921 i SSW 1,902 24,192 8,666 389 609 35,758 SW 1,565 23,074 148,030 56,415 54,498 283,582 WSW 4,093 18,414 55,669 163,452 194,500 436,128 W 19,310 23,557 68,808 147,572 360,835 620,082 WNW 11,774 35,065 182,775 121,304 116,045 466,963 NW 5,821 48,360 213,557 822,489 636,817 1,727,044 NNW 1,719 66,183 29,041 104,351 415,196 616,490 Total 58,365 289,573 862,854 1,458,815 1,812,233 4,481,840 2-8 ,
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- 3. PEAK TRANSIENT POPULATION The transient population consists of two components, seasonal residents and daily transients. Each of these elements is discussed below. .
3.1 Seasonal Residents Appendix 13A to the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report presents the 1980 seasonal population distribution. This distribution of seasonal residents was developed from two sources. For the area out to five miles from the site, data were taken from a study prepared for Boston Edis6n Company in 1975 (Reference 1) . Reference 1 provided estimates of seasonal resident population for 1980 and 1990. Unlike the situation for the permanent resident population, projections for the seasonal resident population are not typically made.
Consequently, a growth rate in seasonal housing units was derived and applied to estimate the magnitude of the future seasonal resident population. Although Reference 1 has previously been submitted to NRC, the portion of this document dealing with seasonal resident estimates is included in Appendix A to this document.
For the area between 5 and 10 miles, information provided in the Pilgrim Unit 2 Environmental Report (Refence 2) was used. Table 3-1 is a copy of the relevant data from Reference 2.
The seasonal resident population for 1980 from the site to 10 miles is shown on Figure 3-1. This is the same data as included in PSAR Appendix 13A. For 1990, Ta ble 3-2 presents the infctmation.
3.2 Daily Transients The numbers of daily transients for 1980 and 1990 were estimated through an inventory approach. All potential
" generators" of a seasonal transient population were identified through the aid of local resources such as the Plymouth Chamber
4
.TA3LE 3-1 SEASONAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION WITHIN .
10 MILES OF PILGRIM STATION SITE 9 ,3 3 .5 69 . e,e, .- 9 .3 3e e. S t.
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pas e S e Pots e e M 378 to 7832 pe s e e e 9 29 e e 23 e 7070 e e 22 #23 il 3840 an30 e 9 e e 9972 la e # 9 8 8 294 est) e S e 4 9984 77 8 9 0 g e af teso a 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9M P4 9 9 9 9 4 ee8 9 9 I
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9 s 940 170 **4 S Sp 9993 9 9 e e e e 1972 e S 9 8 6 0 fees G 9 tee 13? *n 'Jne tono teco e B S e 9 0 ' S ao e to tw SM tal 1.37 S 9 0 I pao e to 848 See t ?S 1 det aime e B S e a 6 3038 0 et its 963 tas l A7e 3ct s e 9 e 0 0 0 JUJD 8 to naf 168 est t a62 N70 8 9 0 0 S 1972 9 9 8 St 9A SM 5393 5 8 set 0 S Stoo 9 9 6 90 se7 i e43 tese m 9 179 4 S 9 0 0 et 93 ott 1.649 tsee et 9 1E O 9 9
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. POPUL ATION DISTRIBUTION-SE ASON AL 2
N f1820 l NNW NNE I 728 N 2709) 485 -
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NE 907 0 676 \
1555
_ 225 WNW 67
,, o 216 4 51 0 433 289 " ENE o
433 0 26 0 76 0 ,
0 0 t l1S34 i
I I W 10 mi659 ,mi 8 mi I l 7mi 6 mi S mi 4 mi S mi 2 mi 5
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5 0 0 +
65 524 393l262 40 127 51 E
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{ 2 3 i 14 k 3 51 14 3 12 172 441
- 1031 7 5 657 4
172 172 67 12 2498 _ESE 172 tai WSW 4s ,.
l1829 45 28 45 2'1 319 !
118 45 271 106 45 236 SW 271 213 317 211 SE I
4331 943 271 213 SSW 843 SSE 1385 S
)3997 l2525 i
l FIGURE 3 SEASONAL RESIDENT POPULATION FOR 1980 l
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! TABLE 3-2 1990 SEASONAL RESIDENT POPULATION Direc- Distance from Pilgrim Unit 2 (Miles) tion 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 Total N O O O O O O O NNE O O O O O O O NE O O O O O O O ENE O O O O O O O E O O O O O O O ESE O O O O O O O SE 746 3,148 443 0 0 0 4,337 SSE 602 131 662 2,505 1,060 1,136 6,096 S 2 8 10 142 45 2,515 2,722 SSW 2 275 16 28 28 1,448 1,797 SW 2 274 23 22 82 241 644 WSW 2 45 8 23 66 1,837 1,981 W 2 8 55 133 50 1,397 1,645 WNW 7 5 0 77 27 1,540 1,656 NW 0 0 0 0 452 2,403 2,855 NNW D 0 0 0 612 1,295 1,907 Total 1,365 3,894 1,217 2,930 2,422 13,812 25,640 3-4 .. -
of Commerce, the Plymouth telephone directory, town officials l
and the New England Camping Association. Af ter the inventory was completed, the persons in charge of the facilities were contacted. Each official was requested to provide an estimate of the peak capacity and peak use, in addition to information regarding f uture expansion plans.
This inventory ef fort was undertaken in the process of preparing Reference 1 for the distance out to 5 miles from the site. During the summer of 1979, the information for 5 miles was updated and the study area increased to 10 miles.
During the performance of evacuation time-estimate studies, some refinements to estimates for beach populations in t
Duxbury were made. The details of the 1980 estimate were included as Tables B-3 through B-1C in Appendix 13A of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report. These tables, together with estimates for 1990 are included as Appendix B to this -
document.
l The resultirig distributions of daily transients for 1980 I
and 1990 are presented in Tables 3-3 an 3-4, respectively, i
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TA3LE 3-3 ESTIMATED 1980 PE AK SE ASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION BY SECTOR Direc- Distance from Pilgrim Unit 2 (Miles) tion 0-1 1-2 2-3_ 3-4 4-5 6-10 Total N O O O O O O ,
NNE O O O O O O O NE O O O O O O O ENE O O O O O O O E O O O O O O O ESE O O O O O O O SE O 2,286 133 0 0 0 2,419 SSE O 50 2,068 0 50 1,370 3,538 S 0 0 0 0 0 1,348 1,348 SSW 150 0 0 0 0 3,710 3,860 SW 0 0 0 0 0 1,290 1,290 WSW 0 205 0 0 159 1,644 2,008 W 0 0 791 4,338 4,771 4,067 13,967 WNW 0 0 0 0 1,996 2,992 4,988 NW 268 0 0 0 0 995 1,263 NNW 0 0 0 0 0 9,645 9,645 Total 418 2,541 2,992 4,338 6,976 27,061 44,326 3-6 .. _.
TABLE 3-4 E7,TIMATED 1990 PEAK SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION BY SECTOR Direc- Distance from Pilgrim Ur.it 2 (Miles) tion _0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 _4-5 5-10 Total N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NNE O O O O O O O NE O O O O O O O ENE O O O O O O O E O O O O O O O ESE O O O O O O O SE O 3,152 133 0 0 0 3,285 SSE O 50 2,219 0 50 1,544 3,863 S 219 0 0 0 0 1,786 2,005 SSW 0 0 0 0 0 5,827 5,827 SW 0 0 0 0 0 1,884 1,884 WSW 0 280 0 0 261 1,838 2,379 W 0 0 841 6,158 4,898 5,496 17,393 WNW 0 0 0 0 2,796 3,122 5,918 NW 268 0 0 0 0 1,143 1,411 NNW 0 0 0 0 0 9,645 9,645
- Total 487 3,482 3,193 6,158 8,005 32,285 53,610 l
3-7 -
REFERENCES
- 1. " An Evacuation Analys3 s for the Pilgrim Site",
Environmental Research & Technology, Inc. , August 1975.
- 2. Pilgrim Station Unit 2, Applicant's Environmental Report Construction Permit Stage, Boston Edison Company.
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- 4.
SUMMARY
The objectives of this population update are to provide a current data base for estimating evacuation, times for the area around the Pilgrim site for 1990 and to provide population esti-mates based on the 1980 Census. Prior sections of this report have presented the bases for 1980 and 1990 estimates of permanent and seasonal residents and daily transients. The distributions within 10 miles of the Pilgrim site of the peak 1980 and 1990 populations incorporating these population groups are shown on Tables 4-1 and 4-2.
The plume exposure EPZ has been defined in the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report. In order not to exclude areas which should logically be included within the plume exposure EPZ, the boundary extends beyond 10 miles in some sectors. As a result, the 1990 population which will be used in the evacuation time estimate will account for about 15,000 people in addition to thoselocated within 10 miles of the site.
l 4-1
TABLE 4-1 ESTIMATE 0 1980 PEAK POPULATION Direc- Distance from Pilgrim Unit 2 (Miles) tion 0- 1_ _ 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 Total N O O O O O O O NNE O O O O O O O NE O O O O O O O ENE O O O O O O O E O O O O O O O ESE O O 15 0 0 0 15 SE 1,315 6,607 1,053 0 0 0 8,975 SSE 620 387 3,255 4,527 1,919 3,823 14,531 S 1 42 212 184 50 6,095 6,584 SSW 170 3 28 12 9 6,063 6,285 SW 1 42 137 72 416 2,012 2,680 WSW 1 324 238 17 427 5,881 6,888 W 59 101 1,317 5,719 9,333 14,938 31,467 WNW 122 5 0 76 2,733 14,713 17,649 NW 287 0 0 0 459 8,899 9,645 NNW 0 0 0 0 620 12,405' 13,025 l Total 2,576 7,511 6,255 10,607 15,966 74,829 117,744 i
4-2 ,
TABLE 4-2 PROJECTED 1990 PEAK POPULATION Direc- Distance from Pilgrim Unit 2 (Miles) tion 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 Total N O O O O O O O NNE O O O O O O O NE O O O O O O O
" O ENE O O O O O E O O O O O O O ESE O O 17 0 0 0 17 SE 1,403 7,636 1,117 0 0 0 10,156 SSE 624 423 3,492 4,863 2,062 4,315 15,779 S 221 53 252 205 71 7,735 8,537 SSW 24 275 47 28 28 9,124 9,526 SW 2 319 180 111 557 2,924 4,093 WSW 2 415 272 34 622 7,108 8,453 W 69 119 1,390 7,579 9,490 19,701 38,348 WNW 143 5 0 77 3,537 15,586 19,348 NW 290 0 0 0 460 9,337 10,087 NNW 0 0 0 0 625 12,646 13,271 Total 2,778 9,245 6,767 12,897 17,452 88,476 137,615 I
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_gq a. - _ - 3 --...-_ - - -- a a 4 APPENDIX A SEASONAL RESIDENT BACKGROUND DATA ey e . - - - - - . - , . ..m. _y _,, - _ . , _ _ . ,-.. ,-m,- m,- -,,, - ----- ._-~
3.3 Seasonal Resident Population This section describes the technique and procedures used to estimate '
the current seasonal resident population and to project and allocate the future seasonal resident population for the years 1980 through 2020.
The discussion is sub-divided into four major topics: (1) Current ;
population estimates, 1975; (2) Allocation of the current population to the study area; (3) Projected Future Population, 1980-2020 and; (4)
Allocation of the future population to the study area.
Current Population Estimate, 1975 The U. S. Census of Population does not provide statistics on the number of seasonal residents living in an area. However, estimates of this population segment can be derived indirectly through the use of the census' count of seasons 1 dwelling units. According to the 1970 U. S.
Census of Housing there are 1,814 seasonal housing units in the town of Plymouth. These dwellings are predominantly located within those enumera-tion districts which abut Plymouth's coastal shoreline. Based upon a peak weekend occupancy rate of 5 persons per unit, this translates into an estimated peak seasonal residential population of approximately 9,000. The average occupancy factor is derived from an ERT telephone survey of local realtors.( 0)
During an earlier examination of the aerial photographs of the Plymouth area it was noted that in certain enumeration districts along the coast, there appeared to be an excessively high number of dwelling units relative to the total count of units expressed in the 1970 U. S.
Census of Housing. A subsequent conversation with Mr. William Downs, a housing specialist with the U. S. Bureau of the Census,(21) revealed that the 1970 census substantially underestiwated the number of seasonal dwelling units in the Cape Cod area. Mr. Downs indicated that a similar undercount was Jikely in the Plymouth area. Therefore, at the suggestion of Mr. Downs, Plymouth's 1970 seasonal resident population was revised upward by considering the undercount as equal to the difference between census counts and air photo counts for certain coastal enumeration districts (ED's 1199, 1200 6 1202). The air photo count of dwelling units in the three enumeration districts resulted in the cresence of 40
slightly more than 900 units over that which was indicated in the census data. Since these three enumeration districts contain the majority of the Town's seasonal dwelling units, it is assumed that the 1970 under-count of seasonal dwellings in Plymouth was approximately 1000 units.
When this latter number is added to the original census count of 1,814 seasonal units, the total supply of seasonal dwelling units in 1970 is j approximately 2,814. This corresponds to a 1970 estimated peak seasonal i residential population of 14,070. (2,814 x 5 persons per unit).
An updating of'the seasonal ~ resident population was accomplished th'r ough a review of building permit data between 1970 and March of 1975.
Unlike many towns, Plymouth makes the distinction between year-round i
I dwelling units and seasonal units in its building permit tabulations.
1 Their records indicate that during the past five years permits were issued for the construction of 124 seasonal dwellings. Thus, the 1975 seasonal resident population is estimated to be 14,690.
i Allocation of the Current Population to the Study Area i
The distribution of the estimated seasonal resident population to i
- each of the sectors contained within the five mile study area was t
l accomplished through the use of census information, building permit data, air photo counts, and assistance from Officer Peter Paulding of .o the Pl>nouth Police Department.
The initial distribution of the seasonal resident population was
{
j established through the seasonal dwelling counts available in the 1970 f U. S. Census of Housing. As was noted earlier, census data for Plymouth
! is arranged according to enumeration districts, of which there are 14 i within the town. Since the study area does not correspond to the bound-aries of the applicable enumeration districts and since it was necessary 1
^
to determinc the distribution of seasonal dwellings on a sector basis,
,' census data provided only a general indication of the number of seasonal dwellings which may be found within any one area of the town. In order 4
l
' to improve upon information, provided in the census, a visit was made to l the Plymouth Police Department. Since town police in a resort area are j generally knowledgeable of the areas where seasonal homes tend to be clustered, Officer Peter Paulding was asked to supplement the census i
41
(.
information in distributing seasonal homes within the study area.(22)
The process began by presenting Officer Paulding with a map of the town 7 upon which was overlaid the population rose and the boundaries of the appropriately corresponding census enumeration districts. For each of the ten enumeration districts which are either wholly or partially contained within the study area, Officer Paulding was asked to estimate ,g .
how a given number of seasonal units ought to be distributed with respect to the various sectors of the population rose. The distribu-tional counts provided by Officer Paulding formed the basis from which an update to the current year could be made. When it was later found c that there was a significant undercount of seasons 1 dwellings in the 1970 Census of Housing, upward adjustments were required. Changes, however, were limited to those sectors located within enumeration dis-tricts 1199, 120! and 1202, the coastal areas where census undercounting ,
was estimated to be most likely, given the large number of dwelling units present in these same areas (as counted from air photos) relative to the total count of units expressed in the census. The method used to compensate for the undercount was to adjust the seasonal count upward for each of the affected sectors by an amount equal to the difference between the air photo count for a given sector and the sum of the pre-viously established estimate of year-round and seasonal dwelling units for that sector. This procedure resulted in an addition of more than ,
900 seasonal units to the original census-based estimate for the study area.
Once the 1970 distribution of seasonal dwelling units was established, the updating process was accomplished through the use of town building permit data. With the aid of plat maps and street indexes, the location f and numbers of newly constructed seasonal dwelling units by sector was established for the period 1970 through March of 1975. Current peak seasonal resident population estimates for each sector were then made by multiplying the total number of seasonal dwelling units found in each
- sector by, a peak weekend occupancy of S persons per unit.
Figure 3.3-1 illustrates the current distribution of the seasonal resident population with respect to the five mile study area. The popu- ,
lation rose shows that the majority of nearly 11,000 seasonal residents found in the study area are located to the SE and SSE. Cumulative l
~~ ~
42
~
. )
I o l l 605 l N l o l NNW NNE O
l450 l 605 _.
O IO I NW NE o 5 MILES 0 0 0 '
450 O 4 o 0 0 o 0
WNW g o o 3 ENE 0
I ilo l 25 g o 0
o g2.5 o l o l 75 O O O%
o O O o 1.5 o o o o o
5 o oo 00I O 5 O '
W 35 125 25 25 0 51 0 0 10 O O O O O E l 215 l 0 0 l o l I
30 O
- 3 o O C OC f580 0 ,
0 0 o 85 1565 10 o 40 440 0 45 0 WSW 10 0 ESE 0 240 0
l 95 l 0 0 485 0 l 0 l O
60 5 2495 0 125 SW SE l 70 l l 4330 l 2O SSW SSE l 5 l 3 l 4920 l TotalSegment Population lyyy l 0 to s l g4, l l
POPULATION TOTALS RING, MILES POPU ION TOTAL MILES kk'hlh
- 0-1 1350 0-1 1350 I - 1.5 1685 0-l.5 3035 i
15-2 1635 0-2 4670 2- 2.5 705 0-25 537b i$-3 450 0-3 5825 3-4 2835 0-4 8660 4-5 2285 0-5 10,945 Figure 3.3-1 Seasonal Resident Population Rose - 1975
! 02 i CR l "R -
=
43
(
j seasonal population totals indicate that 12% of the seasonal . resident population live within 1 mile of the proposed site; 43% within 2 miles; 49% within 21/2 miles; 53% within 3 miles and; 79% within 4 miles of the Pilgrim site.
Projected Future Seasonal Population i
There are no published or unpublished seasonal resident population project i ons for the Town of Plymouth. The technique used to project the future glowth of this population segment was based upon the application of a predetermined ratio to the OBERS Series E permanent population estimates.
A ratio of 0.045 was used to project the future seasonal resident population and was derived from building permit data for the years 1970 to 1974. (Table 3.3-1). This value is the ratio of the number of sea- ,
sonal dwellings constructed from 1970 to 1974 to the number of year-round units constructed during the same time. This ratio was then; _
applied to the incremental change in the year-round population as estab-lished by the OBERS Series E population projections after first converting ,
future population estimates into dwelling units. This latter calculation was accomplished by dividing the change in population by 2.8, the average number of persons per household in Plymout!. according to the 1970 U. S. ,,
Census of Housing. The future growth in seasonal housing units was then c translated into seasonal population growth by utilizir.g the previously established factor of 5 persons per unit. Thus, the formula for deter-mining the future seasonal resident population for each succeeding decade becomes:
2 - 1 x 0.045 S 2.8
.where P = year r und population at time 2 2
where P3 = year round population at time 1-i
. 44 . .m l
.- , , . , , . - , , . - , - . - _ - , , , , - . , ~ ~ -
, .- + - . .- -. - ,
4 .
TABLE 3.3-1 BUILDING PERMIT DATA Year Round Units Seasonal Units 1970 241 34 1971 751 35 1972 895 27 _
1973 650 26 1974 216 0 Total 2,753 124
-M Ratio of seasonal to year round = 124 = 0.045 2,753 Source: Plymouth Building Department, Building Inspection 3 Division. fr.nual Report, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973 and 1974.
t 45 ::
(
Table 3.3-2 indicates the estimated peak seasonal resident popula-tions for the years 1980 through 2020. The projections show the seasonal resident population increasing from 14,690 in 197S to 16,192 in 2000 and 17,394 by 2020. This estimate of growth in the seasonal population is consistent with current thinking in the town, for recently enacted zoning and building regulations (1972) prohibit the construction of the .;
traditional non-winterized summer cottage. Today, all new construction must comply with year-round construction standards. As a result, new seasonal home construction involves a substantial investment similar to that associated with a permanent home and makes future development of large numbers of seasonal units unlikely in the town of Plymouth.I )
Allocation of the Future Population to the Study Area Although accessibility to the coastal waters probably weighs more heavily in the location decisions of the seasonal population than in the decisions of the year-round counterparts, littic undeve' , ped land ,
exists along Plymouth's coastline. Therefore, it appears reasonable to assume that future residential location patterns for both the seasonal and year-round populations will be similar and that both population segments will likely be attracted to those areas in Plymouth which are
, current 1' least developed.
Consequently, the method used to distribute the projected future i increases in the seasonal resident population with respect to the 112 sectors contained within the study area is identical to that which was used to allocate the future year-round population. In short, the technique involves the utilization of a " Development Potentials" map in order to construct a weighting system for population allocations by l
j sector., A complete discussion of this methodology is found in Section 3.2.
Figures 3.5-2 through 3.3-6 provide estimates of the future distri-bution of the seasonal resident population with respect Eto the sectors contained within the study area. It should be noted that the 1990 population rose takes into consideration the 106 second homes associated with the Seahill development previously identified in Tabic 3.2-8. .
46 -
r-L
TABLE 3.3-2 ESTIMATE OF PEAK SEASONAL RESIDENT POPULATIONS, 1980 - 2020: PLYM0UTil, MASS.
(A) (B) (C) o in seasonal pop.= Estimate of Peak Projected Year-Round o in Year-Round (B) *
- Seasonal Resident Population Population 2.8 Population Year 1975 27,776 --- ---
14,690 1980 31,515 3,739 300 14,990 1990 38,993 7,478 601 15,591 2000 46,471 7,478 601 16,192 2010 53,949 7,478 601 16,793 2020 -61,429 7,480 601 17,394 l
8 __
(
l o l N
l 607 l l o l NNW NNE O
i 607 O l 0 l l 451 l NE NW o 5 MILES 4 51 0 o o o 4 ,
o 0 0 0 WNW 0 o o 3 ENE 0
I n2 1 26 o o o
o 0 2.5 o Io I 76 0 1.5 o o o 0 o
o o oo ooi o 5 0 A T W 40 127 26 25 0 6l l 0 l0 0 0 0 0 0 E l 225 l l 0 N l 0 l 31 1 3 0 1 I I I -
15 8 0 0
14 2 1 1566 o 2 2 48 3 0
51 2 12 0 ESE WSW 2 241 2
l !!O l 7 3 416 0 l o l 2
0 -"
67 12 2498 Ir i SW SE l 92 l 9 1050 l 4332 ]
28 SSW SSE l 30 l 3 l 4933 l l.
TotalSegment Pcpulation l ,,, l 0 to 5 l gg7 l t
POPULATION TOTALS RING, MILES POPU ION TOTAL MILES thi$
0-1 1356 0-1 1356 l-l.5 1691 0-1.5 3047 15-2 1644 0-2 4691 2 - 2.5 714 0 - 2.5 5405 2.5 - 3 460 0-3 5865 3-4 2865 0-4 8730 C 4-$ 2329 0-5 1.l.059 Figure 3.3-2 Seasonal Resident Population Rose - 1980 32 22 2 'A -
a 48
I O I N
l 612 l [O l NNW NNE O
612 O l 0 l '
l 452 l NE NW O 5 MILES 0 0 -
452 0 4 0 0 0 0 WNW O O 3 ENE O 0 l ii6 1 27 o o 0
o o U 0 l0 l 77 0 1.5 O O O OO o O 0 0;O 7 3 7 O }
W 50 13 3 29 26 : 7 2 O IO O O O O O E l 248 l 2 O l 0 l 32 2 e O 4 136 2 2 " 15 81 0 0
4 23 1 4 0 66
4 0 17 O ESE WSW 7 244 5 l o l l 144 l 22 9 4:e O 5
82 28 2505 0 ,a 142 SW SE l 403 j 28 1060 43 45 SSW SSE l349 l 3 l 4960 l TotalSegment Population l ggy l 0105 POPULATION TOTALS RING, MILES POPU ION TOTAL MILES p]ta$g$,h 0-1 1365 0-1 1365 1 -l .5 I969 0-1.5 3334 1.5 - 2 1925 0-2 5259 2 - 2.5 735 0 - 2.5 5994 ,
2.5 - 3 482 0-3 6476 3-4 2930 0-4 9406 4-5 2422 0-5 l 1.8 2 8 Figure 3.3-3 Seasonal Resident Population Rose - 1990 {
C* \
n 1
__ l '
49
4 APPENDIX B DAILY TRANSIENT BACKGROUND DATA I
e w
- - ~ -mv -, ......, , , ,. ,, ,
TABLE 1 HOTELS, MOTELS 6 GUEST HOUSES LOCATED WITHIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 TOWN DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED LOCATION DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE FACILITY NAME 1980 PILGRIM UNIT 2 Plymouth SE 1-1/4 mi. 12 Bri-Di-Mar Lodge Plymouth: SE 1-1/4 mi. 22 Sandpiper Inn White Horse Beach Plymouth SE 1-1/2 mi. 40 Motel Plymouth SE 1-3/4 mi. 12 Colonial House Inn Plymouth SE 1-3/4 mi. 200 Mayflower Beach Lodge Plymouth SE 2 mi. 120 White's Cottages Plymouth SE 2-1/4 mi. 13 Shadow Fox Lodge Plymouth SSE 1-1/2 mi. 50 Red Oaks Notel Blue Spruce Motel Plymouth SSE 2-3/4 mi. '. 8 Plymouth SSE 4-1/2 mi. 50 Cranberry Motel Plymouth WSW 1-1/2 mi. 130 Yankee Traveler Motel WSW 9-3/4 mi. 24 Lofty Elm Larver
^
Plymouth W 2-1/4 mi. 252 Pilgrim Sands Motel Plymouth W 2-1/2 mi. 14 Loremar Plymouth W 2-3/4 mi. 25 Tne Inn W 3-3/4 mi. 11 Meadowview Guest House Plymouth Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi. 15
! Blue Anchor Motel W 4-1/2 mi. 328 Gov. Carver Motor Inn Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi. 10 L
Alden House Plymouth i
W 5-1/2 mi. e6 Cadillac Motel Plymouth Plymeuth W 5-3/4 mi. 85 Plymouth Motel W 7-3/4 ni. 6 Clear Pond Cottages Plymouth i ,
.. Jm-
~ '
TABLE 1
. (Continued) 110TELS, MOTELS 6 GUEST HOUSES ,
LOCATED WITilIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 TOWN DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED FACILITY NAME LOCATION DIRECTION FROM PFb0USE PILGRIM UNIT 2 Plymouth W 8 mi. 120 Proctor's Cabins Gov. Bradford Motor Plymouth' hWW 4-1/2 mi. 376 ,
Inn Plymouth hWW 4-3/4 mi. 2 LeFebre's Guest flouse Plymouth WNW 5-1/4 mi. 35 4
Sleepy Pilgrim Motel Plymouth hWW 5-1/4 mi. 64 Cold Spring Motel Plymouth WNW 6-1/4 mi. 25 Bree:y 11i11 Motel '
Kingston hWW 6-3/4 mi. 35 Bayview Kingston hWW 6-3/4 mi. 32 Hilltop Kingston hWW 7 mi. 34 Capeway Travel Motel Iloward Johnsons Motor Kingston hWW 8 mi. 140 inn Duxbury WNW 9-1/4 mi. 32 Gurnet Inn ,
s
- TOTAL PEAK USE
- 2,448
(
e, e
TABLE 2 CAMPS AND CAMPGROUNDS LOCATED WI'n11N TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2
~
DISTANCE AND 1980 TOWN DIRECTION FROM ESTIMATED LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 PEAK USE FACILITY NAME ,
Plymouth SSE 5-1/2 mi. 200 Camp Child Indian Head Campgrounds Plymouth SSE 7 mi. 900 Plymouth S 6-1/2 mi. ISO Camp Dorothy Carleton Plymouth S 6-1/2 mi. 18 Baird Center Plymouth S 7 mi. 60 Timberland-Cedarwood Plymouth S 7-3/4 mi. 120 Camp Clark Plymouth S 8 mi. 200 Camp Dennen Plymouth S 9-1/2 mi. 100 Camp Massasoit Plymouth S 9-1/2 mi. ISO Camp Bournda,1c Plymouth SSW S-3/4 mi. 300~
Wind in the Pines Pine Wood Camp Plymouth SSW 6-1/4 mi. '160 Plymouth SSW 8-1/2 mi. 330 Camp Squanto Plymouth SSW 9-3/4 mi. 200 Camp Cachalot Plymouth Recreation Plymouth WSW 1-1/2 mi. 7S Center Blueberry Hill Camp- Plymouth WSW 4-3/4 mi. S9 ground Plymouth WSW 7-1/4 mi. 1200 Ellis Haven Pinewood Lodge Plymouth W 8-1/4 mi. 400 Plymouth W 8-1/2 mi. 140 Camp Norse Kingston W 8-3/4 mi. ISO Camp Mishannoeh Duxbury NW 7-1/2 mi. 30 St.' Margaret's Camp Duxbury NW 10 mi. 260 Camp Daniel Webster TOTAL PEAK USE: S,202
TABLE 3 NURSING HOMES AND HOSPITALS LOCATED h'ITilIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM. UNIT 2 T0hw DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED FACILITY NAME LOCATION DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE PILGRIM UNIT 2 1980 c
Plymouth Nursing liome Plymouth h' 3-1/2 mi. 37 Jordan Hospital Plymouth' W 3-1/2 mi. 13S Mayflower House Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi. 124 Pilgrim Manor Nursing Home Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi. 84 NewficId House Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi. 100 Happiness House Rest Home Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi. 36 Shady Breeze Rest Home Kingston WNW 8-3/4 mi. IS ,
TOTAL PEAK USE: 531 e
- A s
e 99M
- O
. TABLE 4
- JAILS AND DETENTION CENTERS LOCATED WITHIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM'-UNIT 2
~
TOWN DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED
-FACILITY NAME LOCATION DIRECTION FROM' PEAK USE PILGRIM UNIT 2 1980- _,
Plymouth County Jail ,
(County Farm) Plymouth
- W 3-3/4 mi. ISS-Town of Plymouth Jail Plymouth' WNW 4-3/4 mi. 22 Mass. Correctional Institute Plymouth SSW 7-3/4 mi. 6S TOTAL PEAK USE: 242 (OM
- e m
' ~
TABLE 5 4
MAJOR TOURIST / HISTORIC SITES IACATED WIT 111N TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 DISTANCE AND 1980 T0hN DIRECTION FROM ESTIMATED LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 PEAK USE FACILITY NAME Plimoth Plantation Plymouth W 2-3/4 mi. 500 Plymouth, W 4-1/4 mi. 60 William Harlow House Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi. 30 Sparrow House Plymouth WNW 4-1/2 mi. 100 P1 p outh Rock Plymouth hMl 4-3/4 mi. 125 Mayflower Il Plymouth hWW 4-3/4 mi. 60 Howland House Plymouth hMi 4-3/4 mi. 75 Spooner House hM1 4-3/4 mi. 60 Mayflower Society House Plymouth Plymouth Nat;onal Wax Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi. 300 Museum o
Plymouth KNW 5 mi. 300 Pilgrim Hall Museum Plymouth h%i 5 mi. 200 Mayflower Experience Plymouth h%f 5 mi. 250 a Antiquarian House I" " "" '
\t o C r Kings;e.1 WNW 8-1/4 mi. 80 i John Bradford House Miles Standish Duxbury NW 7-1/4 mi. 175 Monument John Alden House Duxbury NW 9 mi. 30 l
TOTAL PEAK USE: 2,745 i
e n om o
"b W
TABLE 6 PUBLIC RECREATION AREAS LOCATED WI'n11N TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 e DISTA!CE AND 1980 TOWN DIRECTION FROM ESTIMATED FACILITY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 PEAK USE White fiorse Beach
Brook Road Playground Plymouth SSE 2-1/2 mi. 100 Briggs Playground Plymouth SSE 2-3/4 mi. 200 Fresh Pond Plymouth SSE 2-3/4 mi. 1,S00 Cederville Landing -
Beach Plyecuth SSE 9-1/4 mi. 100 Sagmore liighlands Beach Bourne SSE 9-1/2 ni. SO Sagamsre Beach Bourne SSE 10 mi. 120 Rocxy Pond Plymouth S S mi. 100 Plymouth S 1/2 mi. 100 Morey liole P,ond Great lierring Pond Plymouth d 3 mi. 200 Big Sandy Porld Plymouth d 9 mi. ISO
~
Cleft Rock Park Plymouth SSW 3/4 mi. 150 Long Pond Plymouth SSW S-3/4 mi. 400 s Standish State Plymouth SSW 6-10 mi. 2,255 Gunners Exchange Pond Plymouth SW S-1/4 mi. 100 h Standish State Plymouth / Carver SW S-10 mi. ),190 p
Plymouth / Carver WSW 4-3/4 mi. 100 Cooks Pond Miles Standish State Park ** Plymouth /Cr .rer WSW 6-10 mi . 420 Plymouth Beach
- Plymouth / Carver W 3-4 mi. 4,000
( .
TABLE 6 (Continued)
PUBLIC RECREATION AREAS LOCATED WI1HIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 DISTANCE AND 1980 TOWN DIRECTION FROM ESTIMATED -
FACILITY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 PEAK USE Stephens Field Plymouth / Carver W 4 mi. S00 Haskell Field Plymouth / Carter W 4 mi. 200 Burton Park Plymouth /Calver W 4-1/4 mi. 0 4
Arthur Sirrico Play-
- l gro nd Plymouth W A-1/4 mi. 100 Trai..ing Green (Park) Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi. O Brewster Garden (Park) Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi. 1,500 Jenny Poor Farm (Park) Plymouth a 4-1/2 mi. .1,S00 Phillip Jcekson (Park) Plymouth W 4- mi. 0 Summer Street LPark) Plymouth W4 mi. 150 Lout Pond Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi. 100
.qa Allerton Street (Play- -
groundl Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi. 50 Morton Park Plymouth W 5-1/4 1/4 mi. 3,000 Little Pond Plymouth W S-1/2 mi. 100 7
Nelson Street Play-ground Plymouth WNW 5-1/4 mi. 250 Siever Field Plymouth WNW 5-3/4 mi. 200 Veterans Field Plymouth WNW 6 mi. 150 Greys Beach Kingston WNW 7 mi. 1,200 Reed Community Center Kingston iiNW 8-1/2 mi. 300 Boston Edison Shore-front Plymouth - NW 1/(- mi. 268 Shipyard Lane Beach Duxbury NW 7-1/2 mi. 200 4
TABLE 6 (Continued)
PUBLIC RECREATION AREAS IDCATED WI'n11N TEN MILES OF ' PILGRIM UNIT 2 DISTANCE AND 1980
~
TOWN DIRECTION FROM ESTIMATED LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 PEAK USE FACILITY NNIE Duxbury NW 9 mi. 300 Percy Walker Pool Duxbury Beach
- Duxbury; NNW 7-3/4 1/4 mi. 1,200 Blakeman's Beach Duxbury NNW S-1/4 - S-1/2 mi. 7,S00 Green liarbor Beach Marshfield . NNW 10 mi. 4,000 TOTAL PEAK USE: 36,213
- The beach itself extends beyond the indicated distance. However, beach useage predominantly takes place within the indicated area.
- Miles Standish State Park is located in three sectors of the study area. The peak use estimates correspond to the useage in each 'T separate sector.
.m e em
- 6 M
-. -- . - - - . - - . , - , , . - ~ , ,- - - - -, , , , . . - , ,-g,-n,.- .p. , ,..- .y , , , , , , , , , , . . .,, - . . . , . ,~.,-.,--n.. - - , , . , , - , -
_,a... -
TABLE 7 ESTIMATED CURRENT PEAK SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION BY SECTOR (1980)
DISTANCE FROM PILGRIM UNIT 2 (MILES) 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 TOTAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N '
O .0 0 0 0 NNE O O O O O O O NE O O O- 0 0 0 0 0. O ENE O O O O O E O O O O O O O ESE O O O 2,286 133 0 0 0 2,419 SE 50 2,068 0 50 1,370 3,538 SSE 0.
0 0 0 1,348 1,348 S 0 0 150 0 0 0 0 3,710 3,860 SSW ,
0 0 0 0 0 1,290 1,290 SW 0 205 0 0 159 1,644 2,008 WSW 0 0 791 4,338 4,771 4,067 13,967 W
0 0 0 0 1,996 2,992 4,988 WNW 268 0 0 0 0 995 1,263 NW O O O 0 0 12,700 12,700 NNh'
=
2,541 2,992 4,338 6,976 30,116 47,381 ,
TOTAL 418 l
i l
}
- O m i
T-
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. TABLE 8 HOTELS ~; MOTELS 6 GUEST HOUSES
-( LOCATED WITHIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 TOWN DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED FACILITY NAME LOCATION DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE PILGRIM UNIT 2 1990 Bri-Di-Mar Lodge Plymouth SE 1-1/4 mi. 12 Plymouth SE 1-1/4 mi. 22 Sandpiper Inn White Horse Beach Plymouth SE 1-1/2 mi. 40 Motel .
Colonial House Inn Plymouth SE l-3/4 mi. 12 Mayflower Beach Lodge Plymouth SE 1-3/4 mi. 200 White's Cottages Plymouth SE 2 mi. 120 Shadow Fox Lodge Plymouth SE 2-1/4 mi. 13 Plymouth SSE 1-1/2 mi. 50 Red Oaks Motel Plymouth SSE 2-3/4 mi. 98 Blue Spruce Motel Cranberry Motel Plymouth SSE 4-1/2 mi. 50 Yankee Traveler Motel Plymouth WSW 1-1/2 mi. 130 WSW 9-3/4 mi. 24 Lofty Elm Carver Pilgrim Sands Notel Plynouth W 2-1/4 mi. 252 Plymouth W 2-1/2 mi. 14 Loremar Plymouth W 2-3/4 mi. 75 The Inn Plymouth W 3-3/4 mi. 11 Meadowview Guest House Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi. 15 Blue Anchor Motel Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi. 328 Gov. Carver Motor Inn Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi. 10 Alden House Plymouth W 5-1/2 mi. 66 Cadillac Motel Plymouth W 5-3/4 mi. '85 Plymouth Motel k' Clear Pond Cottages Plymouth W 7-3/4 rai. 6
, e ,e,-, , - - -, . - , ,, y ,
TABLE 8
. (Continued)
HOTELS; MOTELS S GUEST HOUSES
( LOCATED WITHIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 TOWN DISTANCE AND -ESTIMATED LOCATION DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE FACILITY NAME '
PILGRIM UNIT 2 1990 Plymouth W 8 mi. 120 Proctor's Cabins Gov. Bradford Motor Plymouth WNW 4-1/2 ni. 376 Inn Plynouth WNW 4-3/4 mi. 2 LeFebre's Guest House Plymouth WNW 5-1/4 mi. 35 Sleepy Pilgrim Motel Plymouth WNW 5-1/4 mi. 64 Cold Spring Motel Plymouth WNW 6-1/4 mi. 25 Breezy Hill Motel Kingston WNW 6-3/4 mi. 35-Bayview Kingston WNW 6-3/4 mi. 32 Hilltop Kingston NNW 7 mi. 34' Capeway Travel Motel Howard Jonnsons. Motor .Kingston WNW 8 mi. 140 Inn Duxbury WNW 9-1/4 mi. 32 . a, Gurnet Inn TOTAL PEAK USE: - 2, S28 l
.. ==
r;~ nu m CAMPS AND CAMPGROUNDS
, LOCATED WITHIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED TOWN DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE FACILITY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 1990 i
Camp Child Plymouth SSE 5-1/2 mi. 200 Indian licad Campgrounds Plymouth SSE 7 mi. 1,000 Camp Dorothy Carleton Plvmouth S 6-1/2 mi. 150 l 9
Baird Center Plymouth S 6-1/2 mi. 18 '
Timberland-Cedarwood Plymouth S 7 mi. 60 ,,
Camp Clark Plymouth S 7-3/4 mi. 120 f Camp Dennen Plymouth S S mi. 400*
Camp Massasoit Plymouth 5 9-1/2 mi. 100 Camp Bourndale Plymouth S 9-1/2 mi. 150 Wind in the Pines Plymouth SSW 5-3/4 mi. 600 Pine Wood Camp Plymouth SSW 6-1/4 mi. 160 Camp Squanto Plymouth SSW 5-1/2 mi. 730 Camp Cachalot Plymouth SSN 9-3/4 mi. 400*
"C# # "
g Plymouth WSW 1-1/2 mi. 150*
B Blueberry 11111 Camp-Plymouth WSW 4-3/4 mi. 118*
ground Ellis Haven Plymouth WSW 7-1/4 mi. 3200 Pinewood Lodge Plymouth W 8-1/4 mi. 400 Camp Norse Plyr.cuth W S-1/2 mi. 140 Camp Mishannoch Kingston W 8-3/4 mi. 150 St. Margaret's Camp Duxbury NW 7-1/2 mi. 30 Camp Daniel Webster Duxbury NW 10 mi . 260 TOTAL PEAK USE: 6,536 Expansion plans expressed by owners though no specific number was able to be obtained. In these cases, peak use was assumed to doubic by 1990.
6
- TABLE 10 NURSING HOMES AND HOSPITALS
.l LOCATED WITHIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNI ** 2 TOWN DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED FACILITY NAME LOCATION DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE PILGRIM UNIT 2 1990 Plymouth Nursing 11ome Plymouth W 3-1/2 mi. 37 Jordan 11ospital Plymouth 4 3-1/2 mi. 233 Mayflower House- Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi. 124 Pilgrim Manor Nursing Home Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi. 168 Newfield House Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi. 100 llappiness House Rest Home Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi. 36' Shady Breeze Rest Home Kingston WNW 8-3/4 mi. 1S TOTAL PEAK USE: 703
.. a 4
f I
l
.c
(.
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~
' TABLE 11 JAILS %ND DETENTION ' CENTERS
-LOCATED WITHIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 TOWN DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED LOCATION DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE FACILITY NAME 1990 PILGRIM UNIT 2 Plymouth County Jail IS5'
-(County Farm) Plymouth W 3-3/4 mi.
Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi. 22' Town of Plymouth Jail Mass. Correctional SSW'7-3/4 mi.. .65'
-Institute Plymouth
' TOTAL PEAK USE: 242-k i
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TABLE 12 MAJOR TOURIST / HISTORIC SITES LOCATED WITHIN. TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2
-(
DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED T0hN DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE FACILITY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 Plimoth Plantation Plymouth W.2-3/4 mi. 500 Plymouth 60
-William Harlow House 7 .)'N 4-1/4 mi .
30 Sparrow House Plymout h .
l$2W4-1/4mi.
Plymouth WNW 4-1/2 mi. 100 Plymouth Rock Plymouth hWW 4-3/4 mi. 125 Mayflower II hWW 4-3/4 mi. 60 Howland House Plymouth Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi. 75 Spooner House hWW 4-3/4 mi. 60 Mayflower Society House Plymouth Plymouth National Wax Plymouth WNW 4-3/4 mi. 600*
Museum (a
Pilgrim Hall Museum Plymouth hWW 5 mi. 600 Plym'outh hNW 5 mi. 400 Mayflower Experience Plymouth hWW 5 mi. 250 Antiquarian House Y"*" ~! "
' sC r hWW S-1/4 mi. 80 John Bradford House Kingston i S andish Duxbury NW 7-1/4 mi. 175 Duxbury NW 9 mi. 30 John Alden House TOTAL PEAK USE: 3,545 Peak use assumed
- No expansion plans would be revealed by owner.
to double by 1990.
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TABLE 13 PUBLIC RECREATION AREAS.
LOCATED WITHIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2
( DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED TOWN DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE FACILITY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 1990 White Horse Beach
- Plymouth SE 1-1/2 mi. 2,866 Emerson Field Plymouth SSE 2-1/4 mi. 275 Brook Road Playground Plymouth SSE 2-1/2 mi. 146 Plymouth SSE 2-3/4 mi. 200 Briggs Playground Plymouth SSE 2-3/4 mi. 1,500 Fresh Pond Cederville Landing -
Plymouth SSE 9-1/4 mi. 100 Beach Sagmore Highlands Bourne SSE 9-1/2 mi. 72 Beach Bourne SSE 10 mi. 172 Sagamore Beach Rocky Pond Plymouth S 5 mi. 143 .
Morey Hole Pond Plymouth S 5-1/2 mi. 143 Great Herring Pond Plymouth S 9 mi. 287 Big Sandy Fond Plymouth S 9 mi. 21S Plymouth SSW 3/4 mi. 219 a Cleft Rock Park Plymouth -SSW S-3/4 mi. 573 Long Pond q
$,StandishState Plymouth SSW 6-10 mi. 3,299 p
Gunners Exchange Pond Plymouth SW S-1/4 mi. 143 p
) , "" * *" Plymouth / Carver SW S-10 mi. 1,74.'
Plymouth / Carver WSW 4-3/4 mi. 143 Cooks Pond i Miles Standish 614 State Park ** Plymouth / Carver WSW 6-10 mi.
Plyrm"*h/ Carver W 3-4 mi. 5,732 Plymouth Beach
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- TABLE 13 (Continued)
( PUBLIC RECREATION AREAS LOCATED WITHIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 DISTANCE AND ESTIMATED TOWN DIRECTION FROM PEAK USE ^
FACILITY NAME LOCATION PILGRIM UNIT 2 1979 Plymouth / Carver W 4 mi. 500 Stephens Field Plymouth / Carver W 4 mi. 200 Haskell Field Burton Park Plymouth / Carver W 4-1/4 mi. O Arthur Sirrico Play-Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi. 100 ground Training Green (Park) Plymouth W 4-1/4 mi. O Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi. 1,500 Brewster Garden (Park)
Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi. 1,500 -
Jenny Poor Farm (Park)
- Phillip Jackson (Park) Plymouth W 4-1/2 mi. O Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi. 150 Summer Street (Park) ,
Plymouth W 4-3/4 mi. 143 Lout Pond
. a=
Allerton Street (Play-W 4-3/4 mi. 60 groundl Plymouth Morton Park Plymouth W 5-1/4 1/4 mi. 4,386 Plymouth W 5-1/2 mi. 143 Little Pond Nelson Street Play-Plymouth WNW 5-1/4 mi. 250 ground Plymouth WNW 5-3/4 mi. 200 Siever Field Plymouth WNW 6 mi. 150 Veterans Field Kingston WNW 7 mi. 1,200 Greys Beach Reed Community Center Kingston WNW 8-1/2 mi. 430 Boston Edison Shore- 268 front Plymouth NW 1/2 mi.
Duxbury NW 7-1/2 mi. 218 Shipyard Lane Beach
r TABLE 13
- (Continurd)
PUBLIC RECREATION AREAS I LOCATED WITilIN TEN MILES OF PILGRIM UNIT 2 DISTANCE AND TOWN DIRECTION FROM FACILITY NAME LOCATICN PILGRIM UNIT 2 Percy Walker Pool Duxbury NW 9 mi 430 Duxbury Beach
- Duxbury NNW 7-3/4 1/4 mi. 1,720 Duxbury NNW 8-1/4 1/2 mi. 7,500 Blakeman's Beach Marshfield NNW 10 mi. 5,732 Green liarbor Beach TOTAL PEAK USE: 45,363
- The beach itself extends beyond the indicated distance. However, C beach useage predcminantly takes place within the indicated area.
- Miles Standish State Park is located in three sectors of the study area. The peak use estimates correspond to the useage in each ,__
separate sector.
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TABLE 14 o
ESTIMATED 1990 PEAK SEASONAL TRANSIENT POPULATION BY SECTOR TOTALS DISTANCE FROM PILGRIM UNIT 2 (MILES) 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 TOTAL 0-1 0 0 0 0 N 0 0 0 O O O O O O O
?NE 0 0 0 0 0 NE 0 0 O O 0 0 0 ENE O O O O O O O E O O O O O O O O O ME 3,152 133 0 0 0 3,285 SE O 50 2,219 .0 50 1,544 3,863 SSE O 0 0 0 0 1,786 2,005 S 219 0 0 0 0 0 5,827 5,827 ,
SSW 0 0 0 0 1,884 1,884 SW 0 0 280 0 0 261 1,838 2,379 WSW 0 841 6,158 4,898 5,496 17,393 W 0 0 0 0 2,796 3,122 5,918 WNW 0 0 0 0 0 1,143 1,411 NW 268 0 0 0 0 14,952 14,952 NNW 0 3,482 3,193 6,158 8,005 37,592 58,917 TOTAL 487 4
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TABLE 15 REVISED PE AK BEACH POPULATION ESTIMATES 1980 Est. '
Sector Peak # of Estimated (d)
Facility Name Town Location Vehicles Population Duxbury Beach NNW 7-3/4 -
Parking Lot
- Duxbury 8-1/4 mi. 265(a) 795 Beach Buggy NNW Usage
- Duxbury 7-8 mi. 400(b) 1,200 Parking Lot on NNW West end of Powder 7-3/4 -
Point Bridge
- Duxbury 8-1/4 mi. 50(c) 150 Blakeman's NNW 8-1/4 -
Parking Lot
- Duxbury 8-1/2 mi. 1,500(c) 4,500 Bradford NNW 8-1/2 -
Parking Lot
- Duxbury 9 mi. 100(c) 300 Green Harbor NNW Beach Parking ** Marshfield 10 mi. 1,000(c) 3,000
- Source: Ed Leary - Beach Conservation Of ficer.
- Source: Marshfield Police - Sergeant Welsh.
l j (a) Residents only - parking sticker required.
l (b) Estimated 200 residents and 200 transients.
i -(c) Estimated to be composed of primarily transients from outside of the 10-mile acea.
(d) Assuming 3 persons per tomobile. .
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Enclosure 2 MAJOR ROADWAY IMPROVEMENTS .
IN THE VICINITY OF THE PILGRIM NUCLEAR POWER GENERATING STATION ;
July'31, 1981 e
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F MAJOR ROADWAY IMPROVEMENTS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE PILGRIM NUCLEAR POWER GENERATING STATION Introduction NRC has reonested that Boston Edison Company examine proposed State a.nd local roadway improvements, for the towns within the plume exposure EPZj which m.'.ght a f fect traf fic flow during an evacuation. Highway engineers at State and local DPW of fices* have been contacted in order to identify projectc either underway or approved for start prior to 1990 which would involve r, tdway widenings, realignments or other significant alterations which could influence traffic flows and capacity.
This information will be factored into the transportation modeling along with projected population estimates for the year 1990 in order to develop evacuation time estimates for the Pilgrim Unit 2 at the time of plant startup.
Findings_
Based on interviews with State and local highway engineers, roadway projects in the area, both planned and anticipated, were identified. The following tab 2e summarizes those projects and differentiates between State and local roadway improvements. Projects designated in the table as being Planned are most likely to be built within the next 5 years, although funding uncertainties could affect the time frames and construction dates of this work. Projects that are labelled as Proposed in the table are of a longer time frame and subject to greater uncertainty.
- Telephone interviews with the fol;owing DPW engineers: Mr.
Jack Hurley, Head of Environmental Section, State DPW; Mr.
Ken Wilman, Engineer, Planning Division, State DPW; and Mr.
Lionel LaBelle, Project Engineer, State DPW, District 7 regional office.
FUTURE HIGHWAY PROJECTS Town State Projects Local Projects Plymouth _ Planned: 3.5 mile reconstruction of Planned: straightening Rt. 3A from Kingston town line to of curve on Long Pond Rd.
Jabey's Corner; involves lane just south of Clark Rd.
widening with addition of shoulders.
Proposed: Rt. 3 upgrade along entire length to improve opera-tions, maintaining same width.
This would include resurfacing, signing, etc. to improve traffic flows.
Carver Planned: 8-mile reconstruction of Planned: 2.5-mile lane Rt. 58 from Wareham line to Plympton widening of South Meadow work (beginning 1982-83); involves Rd. from Plymouth line to
- widening of lanes with addition of Rt. 58.
shoulders. New extension of Rt. 44 between Rt. 58 and Rt. 3, with new connector interchanges (beginning 1985-86).
Proposed: Completion of remainder of Rt. 44 to Middleboro as 4-lane road (10-20 year time frame anticipated). Completion of remainder of Rt. 58 reconstruction i
(10-20 year time frame).
Bridgewater Planned: I-495 interchange at Rt. 25 to be completed in next 2 years.
Marshfield Proposed: Bridge replacement and improvement with no increased traffic capacity.
Bourne Prooosed: Rt. 25 extension to Cape Cod Canal and Bourne Bridge with j similar capacity to existing Rt. 25 (6 lanes).
Wareham Proposed: Bridge replacement and improvements with no increased traffic capacity.
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