ML19330A101

Supplemental Testimony to Initial 770324 Testimony Based on Central Area Reliability Data Which Has Now Been Changed. Util Must Depend on Interconnected Sys to Maintain Acceptable Reliability.Affidavit Encl

ML19330A101
Person / Time
Site:	Midland
Issue date:	04/26/1977
From:	Gundersen W FEDERAL POWER COMMISSION
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ML19330A099	List: ML19330A101
References
NUDOCS 8007150866
Download: ML19330A101 (7)

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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of Docket Nos. -

. CONSUMERS POWER COMPAllY (Midland Plants, Units 1 and 2) ) ,

SUPPLEMENTAL TESTIMONY OF WALTER J. GUNDERSEN

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8007150 86g

. .2- -e Introduction In the last paragraph on page 5 of my initial testimony,M I stated that the Michigan Electric Coordinated Systems (MECS) could expect little help from it's interconnected power system ( in the 1980's. This statement was supported by quoting the projected reserve margins of the ECAR system in the 1981 through 1985 period. The source data for these projected reserve margins was the April 1976 response by the ECAR companies to the Federal Power Comission pursuant to FPC Order 383-3. A more recent response by ECAR pursuant to FPC Order 383-3 was submitted on April 1, 1977, which indicated upward revisions in reserve margins. In this testimony, I assess this new information.

Discussion The more recent ECAR response to the FPC pursuant to FPC Ordei 383-3 reflects an improved reserve margin situation in the early 1980's. For example, the ECAR reserve margins projected for Summer 1981 increases to 24.35% up 5.64% over the 18.71% reserve margin projected for 1981 a year earlier. The primary reason for the increase is the substantial reduction in the projected 1981 Summer Peak Demands; down 5,243 MW from projections made a year earlier.

The 1977 ECAR report did not assume the Palisades Unit out for retubing of its steam gewrators in 1981 and 1982. However, correcting for this outage E " Testimony of Walter J. Gundersen" following Tr. 5100. for. Gundersen also refers to the 1976 ECAR report on page 4 of: "NRC Staff Rebuttal Testimony of Walter J. Gondersen on the Subject of Loss of Load Probability and Reserve Margins" which was bound into the March 23, 1977 transcript volume which contains the testimony of Dr. Richard J. Timm.

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will still leave ECAR with a 23.44% reserve margin in Sumer 1981 which would suggest an acceptable LOLP expectation of one day in ten years.

Similar increases in projected ECAR reserve margin were evident in 1982 and 1983. For example, the ECAR reserve projection for Summer 1982 is now 25.82%; up 7.6% over the 18.22% projected one year earlier. The revised projection for summer 1983 is now 26.24%; up 10.08% over the 16.16%

projected one year earlier. A comparison of the 1976 and 1977 projections of Load and Capacity for ECAR in the years 1981, 1982, and 1983 are tabulated below:

Comparison of ECAR Load and Capacity Projections April April 1981 (Sumer) 1976 Projection 1977 Projection Change Net Resources - W 94,539 92,511 -2,028 Native Load (Peak Demand) - W 79,640 74,397 -5,243 Reserve Margin,- MW 14,899 18,114 +3,215 Reserve Margin - % of Peak 18.71 24.35 +5.64 1982 (Sumer)

Net Resources - MW 99,791 98,909 -882 Native Load - MW , 84,408 78,609 -5,799 Reserve Margin - MW 15,383 20,300 44,917 Reserve Margin - 7. 18.22 25.82 +7.60 1983 (Summer)

Net Resources - MW 103,855 104,701 +846 Native Load - MW 89,404 82,941 -6,463 Reserve Margin -MW , 14,451 21,760 +7,309 Reserve Margin' - 7. of Peak 16.16 26.24 , +10.08 U This data assumes the availability of the Palisades Unit in 1981 and 1982.  ;

If this unit were not available during those years due to steam generator  :

tubing repairs, the reserve margins for those years would decrease by i approximately 1%.

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4 Assuming that the most recent (1977) projections of ECAR reserve margins are accurate, the expectation of a loss of load (LOLP) for the member systems of ECAR is within the acceptable range of about one day in ten years. However, without the Midland units, the MECS area of ECAR would be substantially deficient and dependant on other members of ECAR for emergency power supply. Therefore, the reliability of service to the customers of Consumers Power Company is contingent upon the accuracy of the load and capacity projections of those other member systems of ECAR if the Midland units are delayed and the revised and more favorable current reserve margins for ECAR are based on certain assumptions that could change significantly. These are:

1. About 72% of the increased reserve margin in ECAR is based on the assumption that a member system of ECAR (American Electric Power Corporation) will obtain the necessary financing of construction expenditures to install three 1300 MW coal-fired generating units. These units are expected to be available for service by summer 1981, 1982, and 1983; one completed each year.3_/ Since the required construction permits have not yet been obtained, even if the financing is confinned, it is highly unlikely that such a large project could be im-plemented in time for the 1981 sumer peak demands. Moreover, 3_/ Report by ECAR to the Federal Power Comission pursuant to Order 383-3, April, 1977, Volume I, Exhibit 1-E, Page 6 of 7.

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footnote 2 of the AEP section of the report,U expresses concern as to the necessary financing being obtained.

2. The substantial reduction in projected peak demands are based on load growth forecasts which have a lower level of confidence than any such forecasts made in the past. The diversity of opinion as to the magnitude and direction of conservation efforts, plus the potential substitution of electric energy for other primary fuels, whether because of present shortages or lack of confidence in their future supply, could result in peak demands much higher than presently projected. This concern is fully discussed in the ,

Discussion and Summary section of the ECAR report to the FPC pursuant to Order 383-3.

3. The ECAR data assumes the full availability of the Palisades unit.

The unit has experienced steam generator tube difficulties.

Consumers Power has indicated that a yearly derating of this unit is foreseeable with a major outage to repair the problem anticipated for1981-1982.E

4. The ECAR data assumes that present fossil units will have an assured fuel supply. Availability of oil and gas to supply. fossil U eport R by ECAR to the Federal Power Commission pursucnt to Order 383-3, April, 1977, Volume I, Exhibit 1-E, Page 6 of 7.

E estimony T of Gordon L. Heins following Tr.1648.

1 units beyond 1980 is uncertain. Specifically, the Licensee's Karn-Weadock complex is dependent on imported Canadian oil, which is subject to approval by the Canadian National Energy Board.5/

. Conclusion On the basis of the above statements, I conclude that the Midland Units are required for system reliability on the presently proposed schedule calling for commercial operation of Unit No. 2 in March,1981 and Unit 1 .

in March, 1982. Even with a 20% reserve margin, Consumers Power Company must depend on it's interconnected systems to maintain an acceptable . level of reliability. To increase that dependence when over 70% of the increased reserve margin is based on three large fossil units being constructed (and completed on time) by an outside system which expresses concern as to the financial feasibility of such a venture would be imprudent and not in the best interest of the Consumers Power Company customers. Other factors which would make a delay of the Midland Units imprudent include un-certainties in the load forecasts of the member systeam of ECAR, the possible unavailability of the Palisades unit and the possible unavail-ability of oil and gas supplies for existing fossil units.

5/ Testimony af Gordon L. Heins, following Tr.1648.

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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of CONSUMERS POWER COMPANY ) Docket Nos. 50-329 50-330 (Midland Plants, Units 1 and 2) 3 AFFIDAVIT OF WALTER J. GUNDERSEN Walter J. Gundersen deposes and says under oath as follows:

1. . I am employed by the Federal Power Commission as Assistant to the Chief of Division of Power Supply and Reliability. My professional qualifications are attached to my testimony which was admitted into evidence in this proceeding on March 24, 1977 '

following Tr. 5101.

2. I prepared the testimony attached to this affidavit consisting of 6 pages and entitled " Supplemental Testimony of Walter J.

Gundersen." I hereby certify that this testimony is true and correct to the best of my knowledge and belief.

(c Walter J. Gundersen 6_'G4%

Subscribed and sworn to before me l

t{is J

• day of April 1977.

i b[.x Notary 21 Public 0 b- e M

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My Commission expires: N, / /f 6 1 (/ 9 1

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