ML12355A712

Final Report Kld TR-488, Revision 1, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Chapter 9, Traffic Management Strategy

ML12355A712
Person / Time
Site:	Cook
Issue date:	11/30/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, American Electric Power
References
AEP-NRC-2012-78 KLD TR-488, Rev. 1
Download: ML12355A712 (99)

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9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include:* Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).

• Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T.

All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version." A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are: 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.The terms "facilitate" and "discourage" are employed rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.

There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.

For example:* A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.

• An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process: 1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their existing emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment.

This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion.

Any critical intersections that are not identified in the existing offsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs 3. A field survey of the highway network within 15 miles of the power plant. Potential bottlenecks and critical intersections were identified during the survey.4. Consultation with emergency management and law enforcement personnel.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Trained personnel who are experienced in controlling traffic and are aware of the likely evacuation traffic patterns have reviewed the control tactics at the suggested additional TCPs and ACPs.5. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. These priorities should be assigned by state/county emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.

The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies (if available) can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS) can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information.

DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information.

Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins his trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing TCP locations in the offsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals.Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> have elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 9-2 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:

• Routing from a PAA being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ).* Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable.

The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.See Appendices B through D for further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers or host facilities is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.Figure 10-1 presents a map showing the general population reception centers for evacuees.

The northern and southern major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2 and 10-3.It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate host school and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians.

Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest general population reception center. This study does not consider the transport of evacuees from reception centers to congregate care centers, if Berrien County does decide to relocate evacuees.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Figure 10-1. Reception Centers Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure 10-2. Northern Evacuation Route Map Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Southern Evacuation Routes for Donald C. Cook]I IP In I/ " J-J~ -" Br)1 1)LA.New-Legend -*DCCNP~-Evacuation Route 510,15 Mile Rins rM_____________________________

KW EWgkWr, -), ,, .-I Figure 10-3. Southern Eva Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 10-4 Evacuation Time Estimate cuation Route Map KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation.

There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement.

Surveillance can take several forms.1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.

4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.

These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery.

It is the responsibility of offsite agencies to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify, and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that: " They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes.* Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.Consideration should also be given that the state and local emergency management agencies encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 11-1 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate.

The EPZ county radiological emergency plans do not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation.

Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.

The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.

It is reasonable to assume for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.The confirmation process should start at about 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Table 5-9). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of PAAs), then the confirmation process will extend over a time frame of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ.Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.If this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the (EOC) at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and could be periodically updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize.

This 2 hour2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.

Other techniques could also be considered.

After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 12-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.

Reference:

Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling, McGraw Hill, 1971 Given:* No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 27,500" Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20* Allowable error margin, e: 0.05" Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p=F+e=0.25; q= 1-p=0.7 5 A 2 pq + e 3 n = -308 e 2 Finite population correction:

nN ntF = = 305 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated.

If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 214.Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume:* Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers):

30 seconds* Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds& Time for 4 rings plus short conversation:

60 sec.* Interval between calls: 20 sec.Person Hours: 300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20]3600 7.6 3600 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant 12-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 13 RECOMMENDATIONS The following recommendations are offered: 1. Examination of the general population ETE in Section 7 shows that the ETE for 100 percent of the population is generally 2 to 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> longer than for 90 percent of the population.

Specifically, the additional time needed for the last 10 percent of the population to evacuate can be as much as double the time needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population.

This non-linearity reflects the fact that these relatively few stragglers require significantly more time to mobilize (i.e. prepare for the evacuation trip) than their neighbors.

This leads to two recommendations:

a. The public outreach (information) program should emphasize the need for evacuees to minimize the time needed to prepare to evacuate (secure the home, assemble needed clothes, medicines, etc.).b. The decision makers should reference Table 7-1 which list the time needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population, when preparing recommended protective actions, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.2. Staged evacuation is not beneficial due to the low population within the 5-mile region of the EPZ and the limited traffic congestion within the 5-mile region.3. The roadway closure scenario, closing a single lane on 1-94 eastbound, does not have a significant impact on ETE; 90th percentile ETE increases by 15 minutes for a full EPZ evacuation.

State and local police need not consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming 1-94 as the roadway closure has little impact.4. Berrien County should implement procedures whereby schools are contacted prior to dispatch of buses from the depots to get an accurate count of students needing transportation and the number of buses required (See Section 8).5. Table 8-5 indicates that there are not enough buses and wheelchair buses available to evacuate the transit-dependent population within the EPZ in a single wave. The second-wave ETE exceeds the general population ETE at both the 9 0 th and 1 0 0 th percentiles.

Mutual aid agreements with neighboring counties and assistance from the state should be considered to address the shortfall in bus resources (See Sections 8.4 and 8.5).6. Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) such as Dynamic Message Signs (DMS), Highway Advisory Radio (HAR), Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS), etc. should be used to facilitate the evacuation process (See Section 9). The placement of additional signage should consider evacuation needs.7. Berrien County should establish strategic locations to position tow trucks provided with gasoline containers in the event of a disabled vehicle during the evacuation process (see Section 11) and should encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

8. Berrien County should establish a system/procedure to confirm that the Advisory to Evacuate is being adhered to (see the approach suggested by KLD in Section 12).a. Should the approach recommended by KILD in Section 12 be used, consideration should be given to keep a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) at all times.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 13-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1

9. It is recommended that the Traffic Control Point at St. Joseph Valley Parkway and US-12 should route traffic toward US-12 eastbound and toward St Joseph Valley Parkway southbound, away from the plant.10. It is recommended that the Traffic Control Point at Cleveland Avenue and US-12 should route traffic toward US-12 westbound and eastbound, as both directions lead vehicles away from the plant towards a major highway.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 13-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms TermI Deiito Analysis Network Link Measures of Effectiveness Node Origin Prevailing Roadway and Traffic Conditions A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g., composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.The cycle length is expressed in seconds.A single combination of signal indications.

The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, and red.Service Rate Service Volume Signal Cycle Length Signal Interval Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate A-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 TermI Deiito Signal Phase Traffic (Trip) Assignment Traffic Density Traffic (Trip) Distribution Traffic Simulation Traffic Volume Travel Mode Trip Table or Origin-Destination Matrix Turning Capacity A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection.

The phase duration is expressed in seconds.A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives.

In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance.

These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.

The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations.

These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate A-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios.

DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEVII System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost".Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario.

That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these"best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways.

The specific destination nodeswithin this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip"cost", as discussed later.The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified"geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements.

DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant B-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations.

The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEVII using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling.

Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion.

To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions.

The modeling principles of D-TRAD include:* It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several"efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose." The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling".

Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed.

The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.

• DTRAD executes the TA algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.* Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as c = at,, + 8/, + Ys,, wherecais the generalized cost for link a, anda,fl andyare cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively.

Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions.

The DYNEV simulation model Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant B-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior.

This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session).

A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant: Sa= -13 In (p), 0 < p < I; 13 >0 d.P=do dn = Distance of node, n, from the plant d 0=Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 13 = Scaling factor The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the shadow region. Note that the supplemental cost, Sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate B-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote: Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium".'

It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful]

condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective"costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e., commuters).

Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.B-4 KLD Engineering, p.c.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate B-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Start of next DTRAD Session Set To = Clock time.Archive System State at To I Define latest Link Turn Percentages Tl B Execute Simulation Model from time, To to T 1 (burn time)Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T 1 Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages Retrieve System State at To;Apply new Link Turn Percents DTRAD iteration converges?

I No Yes Next iteration Simulate from To to T 2 (DTA session duration)Set Clock to T 2 B A Figure B-i. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface B-S KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate B-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables:

vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, and queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions.

The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)such as those listed in Table C-1.Model Features Include:* Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles.* Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model." At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications:

queued and moving vehicles.

The number of vehicles in each classification is computed.

Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified.

The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation.

There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link.* Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented.

This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source.* The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.

If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded.* A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model.* A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages.

• Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN* Calculates ETE statistics Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant C-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 All traffic simulation models are data-intensive.

Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections:

rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways.

The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).Figure C-1 is an example of a small network representation.

The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20, 21), (21, 22), and (22, 23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively.

An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21, 22) and (17, 19) are grade-separated.

Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II Me-ur Unt Aple To Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Route Statistics Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Time (min)Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK* Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers* Link lengths* Number of lanes (up to 6) and channelization

• Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)0 Destination (exit) nodes* Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link* Node Coordinates (X,Y)* Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES* On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS

• Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific" Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated* Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)" Stop and Yield signs* Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)* Route diversion specifications

• Turn restrictions

• Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)

DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

• Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms:

free-flow speed, discharge headway* Bus route designation.

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT" Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)

• Duration of DTA sessions* Duration of simulation "burn time"* Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS* Identify and Schedule of closed lanes* Identify and Schedule of closed links Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships.

Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R) Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf < k < kc = 45 vpm, the density at capacity.

In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k < k, = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion.

The value of flow rate, Qs, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax; (3) Critical density, kc =45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, kj. Then, vc = Qmax , kf = kc -(vf-vc)k.

Setting k= k-kc, thenQ= =aRQma Qmax k 2 for 0 k< k, = 50. It can be Qmax 8333 shown that Q = (0.98 -0.0056 K) RQmax for k, < k !5 kj, where ks = 50 and k, = 175.C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems".

Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant C-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 Volume, vph Drop R Density, vpm A k Vf R vc?a I o Luensitv, vpm kf k<c k Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Distance k t Qb Mb OQ OM OE Qe Me O Down Up--Time L El E2 TI Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with tj > 0 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge from a link within a time interval.Cap The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the time interval.

The portion, ETI, can reach the stop-bar within the TI.G/C The green time: cycle time ratio ,that services the vehicles of a particular turn movement on a link.h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a link.L The length of the link in feet.The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a Lb , Le time interval.The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a particular movement on a link.Lv The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.-M Metering factor (Multiplier):

1.The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb , Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval.

These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link over a time interval.OQ' OM, 0 E The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link within a time interval:

vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that executes a particular turn movement, x.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the Qb, Qe [beginning, end] of the time interval.The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).tj Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first t 1 seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.c-9 KID Engineering, p.c.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.

Given= Qb, Mb, L, TI, E0, LN, G/C , h, LV R0, Lc, E,M Compute = 0, Qe, Me Define O=OQ+OM+OE

E=E 1+E 2 1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, ko , the R -factor, Ro and entering traffic, Eo , using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.For each subsequent sweep, s > 1, calculate E = Zi Pi Oi + S where Pi, Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i, and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = ko ,and E = Eo .2. Calculate v (k) such that k < 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.Calculate Cap = Qmax(TI) (G/c) LN , in vehicles, this value may be reduced 3600 due to metering SetR= 1.0ifG/c <1 orifk_<kc; Set R=0.9onlyifG/C=1 and k>kc L Calculate queue length, Lb = Qb 3. Calculate tL =TI -L If tl -<0, sett, =E= = 0 ; Else, El= E--L.V. TI 4. Then E 2=E-E 1 ; t 2 =TI-tj 5. If Qb Cap, then OQ Cap,OM = OE = 0 If t > 0 ,then Q'e = Qb + Mb + E 1 -Cap Else Qe = Qb -Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)6. Else (Qb -< Cap)OQ = Qb, RCap = Cap -OQ 7. If Mb _ RCap,then Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant C-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1

8. If t 1 > 0, OM =Mb, OE =min(RCap Mb, t Cap) 0* ~TI ]Qe, = El -OE.If Qe > 0,then Calculate Qe , Me with Algorithm A Else Qe = O, Me = E2 End if Else (t, = 0)O= (v(T)-Lb)

Mb and OE = 0 ( L-Lb )Me = Mb -0 M + E; Qe = 0 End if 9. Else (Mb > RCap)E= 0 If tl>0, then Om = RCap, Q'e = Mb -OM + E 1 Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A 10. Else (t, = 0)(v(TI)-Lb' Md K [ "-Lb) Mb ]If Md > RCap, then m= RCap%= Md -OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM = Md Me = Mb -0 M + E and Qe 0 End if End if End if End if 11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kRn [kb + 2 km t ke], 4 where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = density at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.If Ikn- kn-l >Eandn<N where N = max number of iterations, and E is a convergence criterion, then Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant C-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I

12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn .End if Computation of unit problem is now complete.

Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.

13. If Qe + Me > (L-W)LLN , then L, The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB = Qe + Me (L-W),LN where W is the width of the upstream intersection.

To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M =1 E- -> 0 where M is the metering factor (over all movements).(E + S)-This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb V shown, Qb < Cap, with t, > 0 and a queue of Y Qe length, Qe', formed by that portion of Mb and E: that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could V_ not discharge due to inadequate capacity.

That is, Mb Qb-+ Mb-+IE 1 > Cap. This queue length, v L3 Qe = Qb + Mb + El -Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current-TI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of thet3 J queue within the TI. A portion of the entering T I Tvehicles, E3 = E will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 ,Qe and Me for the input values of L, TI, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Qe When t 1 > 0 and Qb -< Cap: Lv Lv Define: Le = Q' -. From the sketch, L 3 = v(TI -t, -t 3) =L -(Q' + E 3) eLN e LN Substituting E 3 E yields: -vt 3 + E Lv = L -v(TI -t 1) -LUe. Recognizing that TI TI LN the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain: Donald C. Cook-Nuclear Plant C-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 t3 E Lv such that 0<t 3<TI-t 1[V-TIL-N If the denominator, [v -TI -< 0, set t 3 = TI -t., t_33(tl+t 3)Then, Qe = Q' 4- E tIE Me=E 1 T+TI T The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed.

Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.

Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant C-13 KILD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.

The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:

Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping).

After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes.

It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary:

Table C-3)Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate C-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.Figure B-1 depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions";

each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,[T 0 ,T 2], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function.

The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.As indicated in Figure B-I, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function.

These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, Ti <_ T 2 , which lies within the session duration, [TO,T 2] .This "burn time", T 1 -To, is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To, and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T 2 .At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.Additional details are presented in Appendix B.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant C-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1. Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.Step 1 The first activity was to obtain Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) boundary information and create a Geographic Information System (GIS) base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location.The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ and PAA boundaries.

Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Employee data were estimated using the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics interactive website 1 , and from phone calls to major employers.

Transient data were obtained from local/state emergency management agencies and from phone calls to transient attractions.

Information concerning schools, medical and other types of special facilities within the EPZ was obtained from county and municipal sources, augmented by telephone contacts with the identified facilities.

Step 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and local emergency managers, on-site and off-site utility emergency managers, local and state law enforcement agencies).

The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific requests for information were presented to local emergency managers.

Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study.Step4 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic lhttp://lehdmap.did.census.gov/

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. I values of roadway capacity.A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population.

This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.

Step_ 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description.

Traffic signal timings were input accordingly.

The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.Step_7 The EPZ is subdivided into 5 PAA. Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of PAA) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.

The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions.

Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.

Step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.Ste~p_9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines.

DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified.

The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.

The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined.

The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion.

This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions:

• The results are satisfactory; or* The input stream must be modified accordingly.

This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 11 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.

These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.Step 12 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.Step 13 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis.

Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.Step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated.

This process was automated through the UNITES user interface.

For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.Step 15 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results were available, quality control procedures were used to assure. the results were consistent, dynamic routing was reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks were addressed properly.Step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.

Step 17 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.

Step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist was completed.

An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.

D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Yf Step 1 rt.n in SExamine Results of Prototype Evacuation Case using EVAN and DYNEV II Output'k Results Satisfactory T Step 11 Modify Evacuation Destinations and/or Develop Traffic Control Treatments Step 12 Modify Database to Reflect Changes to Prototype Evacuation Case Step 13 Establish Transit and Special Facility Evacuation Routes and Update DYNEV II Database Step 14 Generate DYNEV II Input Streams for All Evacuation Cases 1Step 15 Execute DYNEV I to Compute ETE for All Evacuation Cases Step 16 Use DYNEV II Average Speed Output to Compute ETE for Transit and Special Facility Routes Step 17 FDocumentation Step IS Complete ETE Criteria Checklist 7 Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate D-5 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 APPENDIX E Special Facility Data E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of November 2011, for special facilities that are located within the DCCNP EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, day care centers, hospitals and other medical care facilities, and correctional facilities.

Transient population data is included in the tables for recreational areas and lodging facilities.

Employment data is included in the tables for major employers.

Each table is grouped by county. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of each special facility, recreational area, lodging facility, and major employer are also provided.E-1 KLD Engineering, P.c.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-1 KLD EngineerinR, P.C.Rev. I 0 Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ 5 11.3 5 10.9 E Alternative Educati Andrews Academy 8833 Garland Ave Berrien Springs 1 (269) 471-3138 230 24 5 10.7 E Andrews University 3976 Rose Dr Berrien Springs (269) 471-7771 3,200 1,200 1 2.4 S Bridgman Elementary School 3891 Lake St Bridgman (269) 466- 0241 359 40 3 2.6 S Bridgman High School 9964 Gast Rd Bridgman (269) 465-6848 318 130 4 8.8 NE Brookview School 501 Zollar Dr Benton Harbor (269) 925-3544 121 34 4 7.0 NE Brown Elementary School 2831 Garden Ln W St. Joseph (269) 926-3500 343 45 5 6.8 SSW Chikaming Elementary School 13742 Three Oaks Rd Sawyer (269) 426-8491 133 20 2 5.7 NE Christ Lutheran School 4333 Cleveland Ave Stevensville (269) 429-7111 100 15 4 9.7Creative Arts/Gifted and Talented 1995 Union Ave Benton Harbor (269) 605-1900 358 15 Academy 4 7.8 ENE E.P. Clarke Elementary School 515 E Glenlord Rd St. Joseph (269) 926-3600 460 298 3 2.9 S F.C. Reed Middle School 10254 California Rd Bridgman (269) 465-5410 298 23 4 9.5 NE Fairplain Middle School 120 E. Napier Ave Benton Harbor (269) 927-0658 357 45 4 9.0 NE Fairplain West Elementary School 1901 Fairplain Ave Benton Harbor (269) 605-2200 265 11 4 9.5 NE Good Shepard Evangelical Lutheran 1965 Broadway Benton Harbor (269) 925-7292 35 20 9.5 NE Church 4 7.6 ENE Grace Lutheran School 404 E Glenlord Rd St. Joseph (269) 429-4951 145 9 4 7.8 NE Great Lakes Montessori 3084 Niles Rd St. Joseph (269) 556-0354 68 8 4 6.2 ENE Hollywood Elementary School 143 E John Beers Rd Stevensville (269) 428-1414 450 50 4 7.1 NE Lake Michigan Catholic Elementary 3165 Washington Ave St. Joseph (269) 429-0227 270 30 School 2 4.5 ENE Lakeshore High School 5771 Cleveland Ave Stevensville (269) 428-1402 928 300 2 4.8 ENE Lakeshore Middle School 1459 W John Beers Rd Stevensville (269) 428-1408 641 44 2 4.4 ENE Roosevelt Elementary 2000 El Dorado Dr Stevensville (269) 428-1416 460 20 4 7.1 ENE Lighthouse Education Center 379 West Glenlord Rd St. Joseph (269) 429-2351 108 18 4 9.3 NE Lincoln Elementary School 1102 Orchard Ave St. Joseph (269) 926-3700 414 20 4 7.3 ENE Michigan Lutheran High School 615 E Marquette Woods Rd St. Joseph (269) 429-7861 125 13 4 7.4 NE North Lincoln School 1102 Orchard Ave St. Joseph (269) 926-3700 267 16 4 9.7 ENE River School 4439 River Rd Sodus (269) 925-6757 64 8 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 4 8.8 NNEI St. Joseph Senior High School 2.521 Stadium Udr fD U 2521 Stadium Dr I IIIJoep (2d69 K) 926-3200 a00 St. Joseph (269) 926-3200 1,000 100 2 3.6 NE St. Paul's Lutheran School 2673 W John Beers Rd Stevensville (269) 429-1546 120 17 2 5.1 NE Stewart Elementary School 2750 Orchard Ln Stevensville (269) 428-1418 456 22 4 10.0 NNE Trinity Lutheran School 613 Court St St. Joseph (269) 983-3056 212 4 5 6.3 SSW Trinity Lutheran School 5791 Sawyer Rd Sawyer (269) 983-3056 200 30 2 7.0 Upton Middle School 800 Maiden Ln St. Joseph (269) 926-3400 722 39 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table E-2. Medical Facilities within the EPZ 1 1.3 SSW Woodland Terrace 8850 Red Arrow Hwy Bridgman (269) 465-7600 90 84 63 20 1 3 5.1 S Bridgman Retirement 11880 Gast Rd Bridgman (269) 429-0097 20 11 9 2 0 Home 3 2.5 SSW Jordan's Nursing Home 9935 Red Arrow Hwy Bridgman (269) 465-3017 105 96 62 32 2 4 8.0 NE Caretel Inns of Royalton 3905 Lorraine Path St. Joseph (269) 556-9679 196 188 138 48 2 4 7.8 NE Golden Homes 2507 Hollywood Rd St. Joseph (269) 428-0715 80 78 48 29 1 4 7.4 NNE Lakeland Continuing 3425 Lakeshore Dr St. Joseph (269) 934-4139 111 70 60 10 0 9.4 NNE MCare 4Lakeland Regional 1234 Napier Ave St. Joseph (800) 968-0115 117 112 83 281 4 9.1 NE Medical Center Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table E-3. Major Employers within the EPZ 1 1.7 E Dane Systems, Inc. 7275 Red Arrow Hwy Stevensville (269) 465-3263 55 90% 50 1 7.8 N/A DC Cook Nuclear Power Plant 1 Cook Place Bridgman (269) 465-5901 350 72% 252 1 1.7 E Dura Mold Inc. 3390 W Linco Rd Stevensville (269) 465-3301 50 10% 5 2 4.4 NE Meijer 5019 Red Arrow Hwy Stevensville (269) 556-2410 120 50% 60 2 5.8 NE Robert Bosch LLC, St. Joseph 3737 Red Arrow Hwy St. Joseph (269) 429-3221 225 85% 191 Michigan Plant 2 3.0 NE Standard Tool and Die, Inc. 2950 Johnson Road Stevensville (269) 465-6004 57 54% 31 3 2.6 SSW American Electric Power 9970 Red Arrow Hwy Bridgman (269) 465-5901 141 55% 78 2.6 SSW Materials Center 3 2.4 SSW Eagle Technology Group 9850 Red Arrow Hwy Bridgman (269) 465-6986 100 70% 70 3 3.2Great Lakes Metal Stamping, 4607 Rambo Rd Bridgman (269) 465-4415 50 54% 27 3.2 SSW Inc.3 2.5 SSW Weldun International Ltd. 9850 Red Arrow Hwy Bridgman (269) 465-6986 60 30% 18 4 9.6 NE AEP Materials Handling Center 2300 M 139 Benton Harbor (269) 926-6171 320 54% 173 4 7.8 NE Hanson Mold 3500 Hollywood Rd St. Joseph (269) 429-5555 80 54% 43 4 7.9 NE Herald-Palladium 3450 Hollywood Rd St. Joseph (269) 429-2400 150 54% 81 4 8.1 NNE Hilltop Business Center Hilltop Rd Saint Joseph N/A 141 55% 78 4 7.7 NE Hoffman Die Cast Corp. 229 Kerth St St. Joseph (269) 983-1102 103 54% 56 4 7.4 NNE IPC Print Services Inc 2024 Hawthorne Ave St. Joseph (269) 428-1554 90 54% 49 4 9.1 NE Lakeland Regional Medical 1234 Napier Ave St. Joseph (269) 983.8300 141 55% 78 9.1 NE Center 4 8.1 ENE Lakeshore Studios 4200 Niles Rd St. Joseph (269) 429-8517 66 5% 3 4 8.2 NE Leco Corporation 3000 Lakeview Ave St. Joseph (269) 983-5531 550 54% 297 4 10.5 NE Meijer 1920 Pipestone Rd. Benton Harbor (269) 934-6701 362 54% 195 4 10.6 NE Orchard's Mall 1800 Pipestone Rd # M2 Benton Harbor (269) 927-4467 300 54% 162 4 6.1 NE Radix Communications Inc Lakeshore Saint Joseph (269) 982-7400 75 54% 41 6.1 NNE Radixr o Caons IncIDr 4 7.6 1NNE IShepherd Caster Corporation 203 Kerth St ISt. Joseph (269) 983-7351 1 64 80% 51 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 4 9.9 NE Target 960 Fairplain Dr Benton Harbor (269) 925-1205 50 20% 10 4 9.9 NNE Vail Rubber Works, Inc. 521 Langley Ave St. Joseph (269) 983-1595 75 54% 41 4 10.2 NE Wal-Mart 1400 Mall Dr Benton Harbor (269) 927-6735 100 54% 54 4 6.0 NE Wolverine Metal Stamping Co 3600 Tennis Ct St Joseph (269) 429-6600 141 55% 78 4 7.9 NNE Whirlpool Corporation 150 Hilltop Rd St Joseph (296) 923-5000 281 55% 155 E-6 KID Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table E-4. Recreational Areas within the EPZ 1 1.5 SW Lost Dunes Country Club 9300 Red Arrow Hwy Bridgman (269) 465-9300 48 24 3 3.8 SE Meadows Family Golf Center 2121 W Shawnee Rd Baroda (269) 422-2828 48 24 3 2.8 SSE Pebblewood Country Club 9794 Jericho Rd Bridgman (269) 921-2998 60 36 3 5.5 SW Warren Dunes State Park Elm Valley Rd Three Oaks (269) 426-4013 800 400 3 2.5 SW Weko Beach Campground 5237 Lake St Bridgman (269) 465-3406 877 392 4 8.6 NW Benton Township River Park 501 Zollar Drive Benton Harbor (268) 925-3177 150 75 4 8.9 NW Berrien Hills Golf Club 690 West Napier Ave Benton Harbor (269) 925-9002 240 120 4 8.3 NW Eagle Point Harbor 2351 Niles Rd St Joseph (269) 429-7400 150 75 4 10.0 NNW Pier 1000 Marina 1000 Riverview Dr Benton Harbor (269) 927-4471 40 20 4 10.2 NNE Silver Beach 101 Broad St St. Joseph (269) 982-0533 1,107 369 5 10.4 SSE Chikaming Country Club 15029 Lakeside Rd Lakeside (269) 469-5484 72 36 5 10.3 SSW Warren Woods State Park Elm Valley Rd Three Oaks (269) 426-4013 800 400-i "10 -3 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table E-5. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ 2 4.6 NE Baymont Inn & Suites 2601 West Marquettewood Rd Stevensville (269) 428-9111 218 73 Candlewood Suites Extended Stay 2 4.6 NE Hotel Stevensville 2567 West Marquettewood Rd Stevensville (269) 428-4400 157 39 2 3.5 NE Chalet on the Lake Co-op 5340 Notre Dame Ave Stevensville (269) 465-6365 263 176 2 4.6 NE Comfort Suites 2633 W. Marquette Woods Rd Stevensville (269) 428-4888 110 74 2 4.3 NE Hampton Inn 5050 Red Arrow Hwy Stevensville (269) 429-2700 225 75 2 5.2 NE Park Inn / Super 8 4290 Red Arrow Hwy Stevensville (296) 429-3218 97 48 2 5.2 NE Ray's Motel 4277 Red Arrow Hwy Stevensville (269) 429-8088 12 6 4 10.1 NNE At the Beach Rentals Lions Park Dr St. Joseph (269) 983-4894 22 8 4 9.1 NNE Chestnut House Bed and Breakfast 1911 Lakeshore Dr St. Joseph (269) 408-8554 8 6 4 10.3 NE Courtyard by Marriot 1592 Mall Dr Benton Harbor (269) 925-3000 279 93 4 10.3 NE Days Inn and Suites Benton Harbor 1598 Mall Dr Benton Harbor (269) 925-1880 135 45 4 8.0 NNE Holiday Inn Express & Suites 3019 Lakeshore Dr St. Joseph (269) 982-0004 138 94 4 10.3 NE Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites 2276 Pipestone Rd Benton Harbor (269) 927-4599 156 78 4 9.2 NE Howard Johnson Benton Harbor 798 Ferguson Dr Benton Harbor (269) 927-1172 176 88 4 9.0 NE Loyalty Inn Benton Harbor 2860 M 139 Benton Harbor (269) 925 7021 150 65 4 9.1 NNE Nancy's Lakeshore Rentals 801 Lions Park Drive St. Joseph (269) 982-1152 18 6 4 10.4 NE Red Roof Inn 1630 Mall Dr Benton Harbor (269) 927-2484 432 216 4 9.1 NNE South Cliff Bed & Breakfast 1900 Lakeshore Dr St. Joseph (269) 983-4881 12 6 4 10.1 NNE The Boulevard Inn 521 Lake Blvd St. Joseph (269) 983-6600 142 71 5 6.4 SSW Super 8 Sawyer, Ml 12850 Super Dr Sawyer (269) 426-8300 101 51 5 11.5 SW Firefly Resort 15657 Lakeshore Road Union Pier (269) 469-0245 100 31 5 11.9 SW Gintaras Resort 15860 Lakeshore Road Union Pier (269) 469-3298 60 19 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure E-1. Schools within the EPZ Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 ID -a-fy o-Gk -d C. Cook EPZ Medikcalld RFoaiite Mwdiith CtneEr 4, 84Golden Homes SLakeland ContKnuin Le Care 6 Caretel Ims of RoRalton 87Bidglma n 2 Retirement Home 89Woodland Terrace 90Jordian's NursingomHome 86, i 3 / I Figure E-2. Medical Facilities within the EPZ E-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate Figure E-3. Major Employers within the EPZ Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Figure E-4. Major Employers within PAA 2 and 4 E-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure E-5. Major Employers within PAA 1 and 3 E-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Figure E-6. Recreational Areas within the EPZ E-14 KID Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure E-7. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate E-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 APPENDIX F Telephone Survey F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) of the DCCNP requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ. Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning.

First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area.Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population.

The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ...?")Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant F-1 KLD Engineering.

P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 F.2 Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A draft of the instrument was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey instrument was modified accordingly, prior to conducting the survey.Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed.

A sample size of approximately 500 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-4.5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population.

Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using GIS software.

This list is shown in Table F-1. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software.

The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as shown in Table F-1.The completed survey adhered to the sampling plan.Table F-i. D.C. Cook Telephone Survey Sampling Plan Z ip Cod S (210 Hoshls RqurdSm l 49022 11,503 4,661 85 49085 22,229 9,366 170 49101 3,075 1,220 22 49103 8,431 3,210 58 49104 868 01 0 49106 4,577 1,890 34 49107 1,038 400 7 49113 297 111 2 49116 207 110 2 49125 2,137 956 17 49126 793 323 6 49127 10,925 4,513 82 49128 1,430 657 12 49129 348 182 3 Total 67,858 27,599 500 Average Household Size: 2.46 Total Sample Required:

500 1 Zip Code 49104 is Andrews University.

No households are assigned to this Andrews University was not sampled in the survey.zip code in the Census.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 F.3 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories.

First, the household demographics of the area can be identified.

Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability.

The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or"refused" entry for a response.

It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions.

To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses.

In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.F.3.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.47 people. The estimated household size (2.46 persons) used to determine the survey sample (Table F-i) was drawn from Census data. The close agreement between the average household size obtained from the survey and from the Census is an indication of the reliability of the survey.DC Cook Household Size 50%40%CA 0.30%0"M 20%0 10%0%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+Household Size Figure F-1. Household Size in the EPZ Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 1.97. It should be noted that approximately

3.8 percent

of households do not have access to an automobile.

The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 and Figure F-4 present the automobile availability by household size. Note that the majority of households without access to a car are single person households.

As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle.DC Cook Vehicle Availability 60%50%5 40%30%0 o 20%10%0%I J&M. --I .0 1 2 3 4 5 Number of Vehicles 6 7 8 9+Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 1-5 Person Households E 1Person .2 People *3 People a4 People E5 People 100%80%S60%0 x 40%'4-0 20%0%0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Vehicles Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability

-1 to 5 Person Households Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 6-9+ Person Households S6 People *7 People a8 People *9+ People 100%80%0-60%&A x 40%04-I 20%0%0 1 2 3 4 Vehicles Figure F-4. Vehicle Availability

-6 to 9+ Person Households F-S KID Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Ridesharing The overwhelming proportion (90%) of the households surveyed (who do not own a vehicle)responded that they would share a ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when asked to evacuate.

Figure F-5 presents this response.DC Cook Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend 100%80%(A 0 J 60%4A 0 x 40%4--0 20%0%Yes No Figure F-5. Household Ridesharing Preference F-6 KID Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Commuters Figure F-6 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.

Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.The data shows an average of 0.95 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 58% of households have at least one commuter.DC Cook Commuters 50%40%CA 0 S30%20%0 10%0%0 1 2 3 4+Number of Commuters Figure F-6. Commuters in Households in the EPZ F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Commuter Travel Modes Figure F-7 presents the mode of travel that commuters use on a daily basis. The vast majority of commuters use their private automobiles to travel to work. The data shows an average of 1.04 employees per vehicle, assuming 2 people per vehicle -on average -for carpools.DC Cook Travel Mode to Work 100% 9U.9%80%60%£I-=-40%20%0.5% 1.4% 3.4% 3.9%0% I Rail Bus Walk/Bike Drive Alone Carpool (2+)Mode of Travel Figure F-7. Modes of Travel in the EPZ F.3.2 Evacuation Response Several questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency.

These are now discussed: "How many of the vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?" The response is shown in Figure F-8. On average, evacuating households would use 1.32 vehicles."Would your family await the return of other family members prior to evacuating the area?" Of the survey participants who responded, 48 percent said they would await the return of other family members before evacuating and 52 percent indicated that they would not await the return of other family members."If you had a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area?" As shown in Figure F-9, 27 percent of households do not have a family pet. Of the households with pets, 92 percent of them indicated that they would take their pets.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Vehicles Used for Evacuation (A M 0 M'A 00 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+Number of Vehicles Figure F-8. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation Households Evacuating with Pets 100%80%60%0.40%20%0%Yes No Figure F-9. Households Evacuating with Pets Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 "Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an emergency.

Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 87 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 13 percent would choose to evacuate the area. Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002.

Thus, the data obtained above is significantly less than the federal guidance recommendation.

As indicated in Appendix M (Table M-2), a sensitivity study was conducted to estimate the impact of shadow evacuation (non-compliance of shelter advisory) on ETE. The results indicate that the ETE is not impacted by shadow evacuation."Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged evacuation.

That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 68 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 32 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately.

F.3.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities.

These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.

The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization.

F-b KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I "How long does it take the commuter to complete preparation for leaving work?" Figure F- O presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed by 60 minutes.Ninety-five percent can leave within 30 minutes.Time to Prepare to Leave Work 100%80%60%E U 40%24-0 20%0%0 15 30 45 6 60 Preparation Time (min)Figure F-10. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work/School"How long would it take the commuter to travel home?" Figure F-11 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. In all cases, the activity is completed by 60 minutes. Ninety-three percent can arrive home within 30 minutes.Work to Home Travel 100%80%(U-W 60%E 0 U 40%0 20%0%0 15 30 45~60 Travel Time (min)Figure F-11. Work to Home Travel Time Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 "How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, and load the car?" Figure F-12 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.

The distribution shown in Figure F-12 has a long "tail." 89 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 90 minutes; the remaining households require up to an additional 1 Y2 hours.Time to Prepare to Leave Home 100%80%0-60%0= 40%0 20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Preparation Time (min)Figure F-12. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation F-12 KLD Engineering, p.c.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 "How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?" During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street. Figure F-13 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway.

The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; 93 percent of driveways are passable within 60 minutes. The last driveway is cleared three hours after the start of this activity.

Note that those respondents (56%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity.

Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.Time to Remove Snow from Driveway 100%80%0 60%0 X- 40%0 20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 180 Time (min)Figure F-13. Time to Clear Driveway of 6"-8" of Snow F.4 Conclusions The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time" which can influence evacuation time estimates.

Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 ATFACHMENT A Telephone Survey Instrument-x F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Telephone Survey Instrument Hello, my name is and I'm working for First Market Research on a survey for Berrien County to identify local behavior during emergency situations.

This information will be used for emergency planning and will be shared with local officials to enhance emergency response plans in your area for all hazards;emergency planning for some hazards may require evacuation.

Your responses will greatly contribute to local emergency preparedness.

I will not ask for your name and the survey will take less than 10 minutes to complete.COL. 1 COL. 2 COL. 3 COL. 4 COL. 5 Sex Unused Unused Unused Unused Unused COL. 8 1 Male 2 Female INTERVIEWER:

ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD. (Terminate call if not a residence.)

DO NOT ASK: IA. Record area code. To Be Determined COL. 9-11 lB. Record exchange number. To Be Determined COL. 12-14 2. What is your home'zip code? COL. 15-19 3A. In total, how many cars, or other vehicles are COL. 20 SKIP TO usually available to the household?

1 ONE Q. 4 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 2 TWO Q. 4 3 THREE Q. 4 4 FOUR Q. 4 5 FIVE Q. 4 6 SIX Q. 4 7 SEVEN Q. 4 8 EIGHT Q. 4 9 NINE OR MORE Q. 4 0 ZERO (NONE) Q. 3B X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 3B 3B. In an emergency, could you get a ride out of the COL. 21 area with a neighbor or friend? 1 YES 2 NO X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

4. How many people usually live in this household?

COL. 22 COL. 23 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 1 ONE 0 TEN 2 TWO I ELEVEN 3 THREE 2 TWELVE 4 FOUR 3 THIRTEEN 5 FIVE 4 FOURTEEN 6 SIX 5 FIFTEEN 7 SEVEN 6 SIXTEEN 8 EIGHT 7 ' SEVENTEEN 9 NINE 8 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-15 KID Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

5. How many adults in the household commute to a .COL. 24 SKIP TO job, or to college on a daily basis? 0 ZERO Q. 9 I ONE Q. 6 2 TWO Q. 6 3 THREE Q. 6 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 6 5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 9 INTERVIEWER:

For each person identified in Question 5, ask Questions 6, 7, and 8.6. Thinking about commuter #1, how does that person usually travel to work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER)Commuter #1 Commuter #2 Commuter #3 Commuter #4 COL. 25 COL. 26 COL. 27 COL. 28 Rail 1 1 1 I Bus 2 2 2 2 Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3 Drive Alone 4 4 4 4 Carpool-2 or more people 5 5 5 5 Don't know/Refused 6 6 6 6 7. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 32 COL. 29 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 30 COL. 31 I 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56-I1 HOUR OVER I HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN I HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 5 16 MINUTES AND I HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN I HOUR 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES I 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56-I1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, 4 BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 5 16 MINUTES AND I HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 31 MINUTES AND I HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 COMMUTER #3 COL. 34 COMMUTER #4 COL. 33 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES 1 COL. 35 5 MINUTES OR LESS 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56-I1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 5 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 36 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56-i1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, 4 BUT LESS THAN I HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN I HOUR ,5 16 MINUTES AND I HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 9 0 X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 8. Approximately how much time does it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 37 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 38 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56-i1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN I HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 5 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 31 MINUTES AND I HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 9 0 COL. 39 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 40 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, 4 BUT LESS THAN I HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 5 16 MINUTES AND I HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 31 MINUTES AND I HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 9 0 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.F-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 41 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 42 1 46-!50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN I HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 5 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY 9 0 COL. 43 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 44 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56-i1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN I HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __9 0 X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED 9. If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area?(DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COL. 45 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 2 15-30 MINUTES 3 31-45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES -I HOUR 5 1 HOUR TO I HOUR 15 MINUTES 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 02 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS COL. 46 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 2 MINUTES 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS X OVER 6 HOURS (SPECIFY )COL. 47 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 1 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

• 10. If there is 6-8" of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate?

If yes, how much time, on average, would it take you to clear the 6-8" of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable. (DO NOT READ RESPONSES)

COL. 48 COL. 49 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES I OVER 3 HOURS (SPECIFY 2 15-30 MINUTES 2 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 3 31-45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES -1 HOUR 5 1 HOUR TO I HOUR 15 MINUTES 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO I HOUR 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES X 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Z NO, WILL NOT SHOVEL OUT 11. Please choose one of the following (READ COL. 50 ANSWERS):

1 A A. I would await the return of household commuters to evacuate together.

2 B B. I would evacuate independently and meet X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED other household members later.12. How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COL. 51 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE)X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 13A. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an COL. 52 emergency.

Would you: (READ ANSWERS) I A A. SHELTER; or 2 B B. EVACUATE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 13B. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in COL. 53 an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you: (READ ANSWERS)A. SHELTER; or B. EVACUATE 1 A 2 B X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED

14. If you have a household pet, would you take your pet with you if you were asked to evacuate the area? (READ ANSWERS)COL. 54 I DON'T HAVE A PET 2 YES 3 NO X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Thank you very much.(TELEPHONE NUMBER CALLED)IF REQUESTED:

For additional information, contact your County Emergency Management Agency during normal business hours.County EMA Phone Berrien (269) 983-7141 (Ext. 4915)Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate F-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 APPENDIX G Traffic Management Plan G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation simulation modeling.

The traffic management plans for the EPZ was provided by Berrien County. This plan was reviewed and the TCPs were modeled accordingly.

G.1 Traffic Control Points As discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) are modeled as actuated signals. If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, and the intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system. Table K-2 provides the control type and node number for those nodes which are controlled.

If the existing control was changed due to the point being a TCP, the control type is indicated as "Traffic Control Point" in Table K-2.Figure G-1 maps the TCPs identified in the county emergency plan. These TCPs are located throughout the EPZ, with higher concentrations in St. Joseph and Benton Harbor near the northern border of the EPZ. Theses TCPs would be manned during evacuation by traffic guides who would direct evacuees in the proper direction and facilitate the flow of traffic out of the EPZ.As discussed in Section 7.3, the animation of evacuation traffic conditions indicates several critical intersections during the evacuation.

These critical intersections were cross-checked with the EPZ county emergency plans. All of the intersections, except one -Route 63 and Napier Avenue -were identified as TCPs in the county plan. As this intersection services a significant amount of traffic in and out of St Joseph, it is recommended that the county consider this intersection as a mandatory TCP. A police officer positioned here could ensure that the majority of vehicles traveling northbound on Route 63 would take a right to exit St Joseph on the Napier Avenue Bridge, avoiding the pronounced congestion in northern St Joseph.G.2 Access Control Points It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the advisory to evacuate to discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ. As discussed in Section 3.6, external traffic was considered on the only two routes which traverse the EPZ -Interstate-94, and Interstate-196

-in this analysis.

The generation of these external trips ceased at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the advisory to evacuate in the simulation.

In the Berrien County emergency plans, there is no distinction between access and traffic control points, however, it can be assumed that the points located at the EPZ border and at highway on-ramps will act as access control points, discouraging vehicles from entering the EPZ.It is recommended that access ramps to 1-94 and 1-196 be given the top priority in assigning manpower and equipment as they are the major routes traversing the EPZ and as much Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant G-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 1 capacity as possible on these roadways should be available to service those vehicles evacuating the EPZ.The following additional recommendations are offered for access control points:* The Access Control Point at St. Joseph Valley Parkway and US-12 should route traffic toward US-12 eastbound and toward St Joseph Valley Parkway southbound, away from the plant. If traffic is allowed to head westbound on US-12, there is the possibility of vehicles heading north into the EPZ on many side streets. Figure G-2 provides a detailed schematic of the suggested actions to be taken at this TCP.* The Access Control Point at Cleveland Avenue and US-12 should route traffic toward US-12 westbound and eastbound, as both directions lead vehicles away from the plant towards a major highway. Figure G-3 provides a detailed schematic of the suggested actions to be taken at this TCP.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate G-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure G-1. Egress/Traffic Control Points Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate G-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 TCP MUNICIPALITY:

Buchanan LOCATION:

St. Joseph Valley Pkwy and US-12 ID: 1 PAA: Shadow Region St Jo, seph Valley Pkwy Southbound off-ramp US-12 X ~I*xx Key MOVEMENT FACILITATED MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED TRAFFIC GUIDE 2_f-STOP SIGN X TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)o TRAFFIC SIGNAL ,0 TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):00 0 48 ft ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN 1. Discourage eastbound traffic on US-12 Eastbound towards the EPZ MANPOWER/EOUIPMENT ESTIMATE 1 Traffic Guide 4 Traffic Barricade LOCATION PRIORITY 1**Traffic Guide should position himself safely Figure G-2. Schematic of TCP at St. Joseph Valley Pkwy and US-12 G-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate G-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 TCP MUNICIPALITY:

Galien LOCATION:

US-12 & Cleveland Ave ID: 2 PAA: Shadow Region Cleveland Ave---- .... .... N Key-* MOVEMENT FACILITATED I* MOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED TRAFFIC GUIDE 116STOP SIGN X TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)I TRAFFIC SIGNAL 0 0 TRAFFIC CONES SPACED TO DISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE): 0 0 0 ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN 1. Discourage northbound traffic on Cleveland Ave US-12 (Pulaski Hwy) 1{xx 4--I -14ý F1 MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATE 1 Traffic Guide 2 Traffic Barricades LOCATION PRIORITY 1**Traffic Guide should position himself safely Figure G-3. Schematic of TCP at US-12 and Cleveland Ave Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate G-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 APPENDIX H Evacuation Regions H EVACUATION REGIONS This appendix presents the evacuation percentages for each Evacuation Region (Table H-i) and maps of all Evacuation Regions. The percentages presented in Table H-1 are based on the methodology discussed in assumption 5 of Section 2.2 and shown in Figure 2-1.Note the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002.

H-i KID Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Table H-1. Percent of Protective Action Area Population Evacuating for Each Region 20% ýý20% 1 20%ENE, E, ESE, SE, SSE Refer to Region R01 R05 S, SSW, SW 20% 20% 20%WSW, WI Refer to Region R02 E, ESE, SE, SSE Refer to Region R02 R07 S, SSW, SW 20%20% 20%I 20%20% 20%PAA(s) Shelter-in-Place Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure H-1. Region R01 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Figure H-2. Region R02 H-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure H-3. Region R03 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure H-4. Region R04 H-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Figure H-5. Region ROS H-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure H-6. Region R06 H-8 KID Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. I Figure H-7. Region R07 H-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure H-8. Region R08 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 Figure H-9. Region R09 Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-11 KILD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1 0 Figure H-10. Region RIO Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant Evacuation Time Estimate H-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 1