ML20062L091

Testimony of F Von Hippel on Contentions 1 & 2 Re Core Disruptive Accident Probabilities at Crbr

ML20062L091
Person / Time
Site:	Clinch River
Issue date:	08/11/1982
From:	Von Hippel F National Resources Defense Council, PRINCETON UNIV., PRINCETON, NJ
To:
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ML20062L054	List: ML20062L051 ML20062L069 ML20062L091 ML20062L111
References
NUDOCS 8208180125
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l BEFORE THE l

UNITED STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD l

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In the Matter of

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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

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PROJECT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

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Docket No. 50-537 TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY

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(Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant)

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TESTIMONY OF DR. FRANK VON HIPPEL l

My name is Frank von Hippel.

I reside at 120 Prospect i

Avenue, Apartment C-2, Princeton, New Jersey 08540.

I am presently a senior research physicist at Princeton University's Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, and the elected chairman of the Federation of American Scientists, a member of the Radiation Health Advisory Committee of the City of New York, and a member of the Three Mile Island Public Health Fund Advisory Board.

I have a B.S. degree in physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a D.Phil. in theoretical physics from Oxford University.

I have held research positions at the Enrico Fermi Institute of the University of Chicago, Newman Laboratory of Nuclear Physics at Cornell, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and the National Academy of Sciences.

I have been a member of the physics faculties of l

Stanford and the University of California (Berkeley) physics departments.

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With regard to reactor safety, I was the chairman of the containment and consequences subcommittee of the American Physical Society's Study Group on Light Water Reactor Safety; a member of the National Academy of Sciences' Panel on Breeder Reactor Safety; a member of the steering committee of the Energy Research and Development Administration's LMFBR Review; and a member of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Risk Assessment Review Advisory Group.

The purpose of this testimony is to offer evidence with regard to Contention 1 and parts of Contention 2.

I am of the firm belief that the occurrence of a core disruptive accident (CDA) is credible in a reactor of the general size and type as the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (ICRBR).

Briefly, this belief is based upon: my experience in reviewing accident risk assessments of both light water and breeder reactors, my review of the general design features of current generation breeders, and my discussions with breeder reactor safety specialists.

The NRC Staff and the Applicants argue that it is l

practicable to reduce the probability of a CDA in a reactor of j

the general size and type as the Clinch River Breeder Reactor to a negligible level.

The current analytical tools are not adequate to prove this contention and it would take many thousands of reactor-years to prove it empirically.

Such contentions have already been shown to be indefensible in the

case of light water reactors, where both experience and 1

analytical effort have been much greater than for breeders.

The history of both light water reactors and breeder reactors is replete with unpleasant surprises, including core disruptive accidents.

With this background, those who are willing to accept the contention by the Applicants and the NRC Staff that future unpleasant surprises leading to CDAs are of negligible probability, are willing to substitute faith for reason.

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C May 1982 Frank von Hippel - Vita Born: December. 26, 1937 Education: D.Phil. (Theoretical Physics, Oxford,1962)

B.S. (Physics, M.I.T.,1959)

Cu,reent Ecolovment: Senior Research Physicist, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University; Princeton, N.J. 08544 (Telephone number 609-452-4695).

Past Emplov=ent:

Resident Fellow (National Academy of Sciences, 1973 '74)*

Associate Physicist (High Energy Physics Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 1970 '73):

A.P. Sloan Foundation Fellow (Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, 1969 '70);

Assistant Professor (Physics Department, Stanford University, 1966 '69);

Research Associate (Newman Laboratory for Nuclear Studies, Cornell University, 1964 '66);

Research Associate (Enrico Fermi Institute for Nuclear Studies, University of Chicago, 1962 '64).

Agards:

American Physical Society Forum Award for Promoting the Understanding of the Relationship of Physics and Society (1977, with J. Primack).

National Academy of Sciences Resident Fellowship (1973 '74);

A.P. Sloan Foundation Fellowship (1969 '70);

Rhodes Scholarship (1959 '62).

Selected Committees. Councils. Ete:

Chair =an, Federation of American Scientists (1979-

), Council Member 4975- );

Chairman, Selection Co=mittee for the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences' Award for Scientific Freedom and Responsibility (1981);

Chair =an, Subco=mittee on Protection of Prof essional Responsibility, Co=mittee on Scientific Freedom and Responsibility of the American Association For the Advance-ment of Science (1976-81);

Three Mile Island Public Health Fund Advisory Board (1932 -);

Board of Directors, Institute for World Environment and Resource Studies (1982- );

Advisory Panel, Study on Solar Power Satellite Issues (Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, 1979

'81);

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- Committees, Councils, Etc. (Cont'd)

International. Fuel Cycle Evaluation (US Delegation, 1977 '78);

Risk Assessment Review Group (Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1977 '78):

Steering Com=1ttee, Breeder Reactor Program Review (ERDA,1977):

Panel on Breeder Reactor Safety (National Research Council 1976 '77):

Study Group on Light Water Reactor Safety (American Physical Society, 1974 '75):

Editorial Advisory Board (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (1975-);

Council of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (1974 '76):

Congressional Science Fellowship Selection Committees (American Association for the Advance =ent of Science (1973, 1974), American Physical Society (1973)).

Subcommittee on Science for Citizens (National Science Foundation, 1977-1979);

Public Health Advisory Committee on Radiation (New York City Health Department, 1978 -).

SELECTED PUBLICATIONS Book Advice and Dissent, Scientists in the Political Arena (hardback: Basic Books, New York, 1974; paperback: Meridian-New American Library,1976, with J. Pricack).

Articles and Reports Nuclear Ener2y Policy:

FAS Opposes the Clinch River Breeder, Federation of American Scientists, Public Interest Report, May 1932, p. 7.

Containina a Reactor Melt-Down (to be published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist:

September 1982 - with Jan Beyes)

Should Breeder Reactors Be Built in the United States ? No!,

Public Power, May/ June 1981, pp. 19, 21, 24

_Some Lont-Term Consecuences of Hypothetical Maior Releases of Radioactivity to the Atmosphere from Three Mile Island, a Report to the President 's Council on En-vironnental Quality, PU/ CEES v109, 94 pages,1980, (with Jan Beyea).

The NRC and Thyroid Protection - One Excuse Af ter Another, Bulletin of the Atomic Sci-entists 3 6 (October 1980), pp. 44-46.

Radioactive Waste: the Problem of Plutonium, Science, Oct. 17, 198 0, pp. 319-321.

(with H. Krugman).

Nuclear Reactor Accidents: The Value of Improved Containment, PU/ CEES Report d94, SS pag es, 1980, (with Jan Beyea).

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. Selected Publication _s (Con'd) t Mitigating the Ef fects of Nuclear Accident [s] IEEE Spectrum Nov. 1979, p. 79.

Will Our Problems be Solved if We Abolish Nuclear Power Plants? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 19 79, p. 5,6(exerpted in the Washington Post, Sep temb er 21, 1979, p. A18).

Available Thyroid Protection, Science, June 8,1979, p.1032.

Uranium Security Without the Breeder Reactor, Washington Post, March 16, 19 79, (with H.A. Feiveson and R.H. Williams).

t Fission Power: An Evolutionary Strategy, Science, January 26,1979, pp. 330-337 (with H. A. Feiveson and R.H. Williams).

An Evolutionary Strategy for Nuclear Power (in Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation, Stockholm Peace Research Institute,1979 pp,11 - 47; and in the Hazards of the International Energy Crisis, London, McMillan Press, David Carlton and Carlo Schaerf, eds.,1982,~ pp.127-168, with H. A. Feiveson, and R.H. Williams).

Risk Assessment Review Group Report to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (N.R.C.,

NUREG/CR-0400,1978), 65 pages (with 6 others).

Alternatives to the Plutonium Breeder, Washington Post, September 16,1977, (with H. A. Feiveson and R.H. Williams).

Radioactive Wastes: A Comparison of US Milita-v and Civilian Inventories, Science August 26,1977, p. 883, (with H. Krugmann).

Breedemania, New York Times, June 20,1977, p. 27, (with H.A. Feiveson, T.B. Taylor, and R.H. Williams).

I Proliferation Resistant Nuclear Power Technologies: Preferred Alternatives to the Plu-tonium Breeder, report prepared as menbar of the er.eering committee of the IJfFBR I

Program Review of the U.S. Energy Research and Dwelopment Administration, April 6, 1977 (with Thomas B. Cochran, Russell E. Train, and Robert H. Williams.)

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I Looking Back on the Ras =ussen Report, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, February 19 7 7, p. 4 2.

Energy Waste and Nuclear Power Growth, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December 19 76, p. IS, (with R.H. Williams).

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The Plutonium Economy: Why We Should Wait and Uhv We Can Wait, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December 1976, p.10 (with H.A. Feiveson, T.B. Taylor and f

R.H. Williams).

L A Perscec tive on the Debate, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Septe=ber 19 75,

p. 37, Further Points of Clarification, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 1976, p. 44 The Net Enerev from Nuclear Reactors, Federation of American Scientists Professional Bulletin, April 19 75, p. 5 (with Margaret Fels and Hartmut Krugmann).

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Selected Publications (Cont'd)

Report to the American Physical Society bv the Study Grous on Light Water Eeactor Safetv, Reviews of Modern Physics, Vol. 47, Supplement 1, Summer 1975 (with 11 others).

Solar Enerav Polievi Toward A Solar Civilization, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, October 1977, p.12 (with R.H. Williams).

Nuclear Arms Control:

Cutting off the Production of Fissile Material for Nuclear Weapons, Federation of American Scientists Public Interest Report, June 1982, p.

(with H. A. Feiveson).

The Consequences of a ' Limited' Nuclear War in East and West Germany, to be published in Ambio, Jur.e 1982, with William Arkin and Barbara G. Levi.

Limited Nuclear Warfare, Scientific American, November 197 6, p. 27 (with S.D. Drell).

Energy, General:

Automobiles and the West's Umbilical Cord, to be published in the Energy Conservation Bulletin,1932 (with William Chandler).

Global Risks from Enerav Consumption, in The Health Risks Associated With Energy

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Technologies, Elizabeth Etnier and Curtis Travis, eds., Symposium Volume of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, (to be published,1982).

The Energy Demand of U.S. Buildings (Draf t PU/ CEES Report #119, 77 pages,1931).

The Solar Radiation Resource, (Draf t PU/ CEES,1981 - with Ari Rabl).

The Fuel Econemy of Light Vehicles, Scientific American, May 1981, pp. 48 to 59 -

with Charles Gray.

(This article also appeared in the Japanese, German and Spanish language publications of the Scientific American.)

U.S. Transoortation Energy De=and, (PU/ CEES Report #111, 49 pages,1981).

Forty Miles a Gallon by 1995 at the Least! - Whv the U.S. Needs a New Automotive Fuel Economy Standard, Report PU/ CEES ri104, April 1980, 20 p. ; published in The Dependence Dilec=a: Gasoline Consumption and A= erica's Security (1980 Harvard University, Center for International Af fairs, Dan Yergin, ed.), pp. 8 9-103.

Draf t version reprinted in U.S. Senate Co==ittee on Energy and Natural Resources, Potential for improved Auto =obile Fuel Economy Between 1985 and 1995, Hearing, April 30,1980, pp. 480-316.

The Automobile Fuel Economy Standards - Are They Cost Ef f ec tive ? Report PU/ CEES 692, Dece=ber 1979; published in Technology and Society, June 1980, pp.1-7.

Energv Sucolv Ootions and Climatoloev: How Fast Must We Move Into the Post Fo s s il Fuel Era? (in Multidiciplinarv Research Related to the Atmosphere Sciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research,1978).

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Science and Society:

Apolvine Cost-Benefit Analysis to Environmental Regulations: No Panacea, F.A.S.

Public Interest Report, March 1982, pp.1, 3, 4 The Emperor's New Clothes - 1981, Physics Today, July,1981, pp. 34 41, and Letters, March 1982, pp.11,13,15, 88, 89, 90.

The Imoortance of Def ending Andrei Sakharov, Physics Today, April 1980, pp. 9-11, (excerpted on the Washington Post editorial page, Sunday, April 27, 1980),

see also followup exchange of letters in Physics Today, August 1980, pp. 61-62.

Due Process for Dissenting ' Whistle-Blowers,' Technology Review, June / July 1979; pp. 45-55, (excerpted in the Boston Globe, August 12,1979, p. D1 and in two parts in Mechanical Engineering, April 1980, p. 82, May 1980, p. 76) - with Rosemary Chalk.

Public Interest Science -- An Overview, Physics Today, June 1974, p. 23, (with l

J. Primack and M. Parl).

Public Interest Science, Science 177, (1972), p.1166, (with J. Primack).

Elementary Particle Physics:

22 publications relating to hadronic symmetries and symmetry breaking, few nucleon systems, neutrino interactions, non-leptonic weak interactions, dispersion relations, mesonic atoms, nucleon-nucleon interactions, strong interaction phenomenology, and multiple particle production (with various co-authors 1964-1974).

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(See attached list.)

Congressional Testimony, Etc.

i The Consecuences of " Limited" Nuclear War in the Ger=anies, in the ad_ hoe hearings of the House Armed Services Committee, March 17, 1982.

l The Thyroid Protection Probles: to Predistribute or Not to Predistribute Potassium Iodide? - testinony before the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the l

House Coz=ittee on Interior and Insular Affairs, March 5,1982, i

Uranium, Electricity, and Econcaics, in U.S. House of Representatives, Co=nittee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Energy Conservation and Power Hearing, Uranium Efficiency Improvements, October 5, 1981, pp. 3-32, 53-64 Why the U.S. Needs an Automotive Fuel Economy Poliev, in U.S. House of Representatives.

I Committee on Energy and Com=erec, Subcommittee on Energy Conservation and Power, l

Hearing. Energy Conservation in Transcortation, June 24, 1981, pp. 29-54, 66-79.

The NRC Decision-Making Process Concernine Thvroid Protection, Invited Briefing to the Nuclear Regulatory Co==ission, November 18, 1930.

I' The Harbeidge House Study and the Federal Automotive Fuel Economy Standards:

Attackine Good Poliev With Bad Analvsis, in U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Interstate and Foreign Coc=erce, Subco==ittee on Oversight and Investigations Hearing, June 17, 1980, Cost-Benefit Analvsis: The Potential for Conflict of Interest, pp. 40-61.

~ Congressional Testimony, Etc. (Cont'd)

Why the US Needs Ambitious Post-1985 Automotive and Light Truck Fuel Economy Standards 'La U.S. Senate, Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Sub-committee on Science, Technology, and Space Hearing, May 14,1980, pp. 304-330.

The Consecue'nces of Reactor Core Melt-Down Accidents and Strategies for their Mitigation, Testi=ony before the Energy Subco==ittee of the California State Ass e=bly, April 12, 1979.

An Evolutionary Strategv for Nuclear Energv - A Safer Econo =ie Alternative te the Breeder, in U.S. Senate,Com=ittee on Energy and Natural Resources,Subco==ittee on Energy Research and Development, Depart =ent of Energy Fiscal Years 1980-81 Authoriza-tion (Civilian Applications), Hearings, April 5,1979, pp.1302-1329.

(with H.A. Feiveson and R.H. Williams).

L The Uranium Requirements, Economics and Proliferation Resistance of Isotopically Denatured Fuel Cycles in Already Developed Reactors Compared with those of the Plutonium Fuel Cycle in the Fast Breeder Reactor, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Fossil and Nuclear Energy Research, Development and Demonstration i

l of the U.S. House Committee on Science and Technology, April 4,1978, (with H.A. Feiveson and R.H. Williams).

Nuclear Reactor Safety, Briefing given to Norwegian Co=mittee on Nuclear Power, Norway, August 30, 1977.

Alternatives to the Plutonium Breeder, Testimony before the Subcommittee on

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Fossil and Nuclear Energy Research, Development, and Demonstration of the House Cc=mittee on Science and Technology, June 10. 1977.

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Alternative Futures for Nuclear Power, Presentation of the Maecing of Experts on the Fast Breeder Reactor Organized by the German Minister of Science and i

Technology, Bonn, May 19, 1977.

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, Nuclear Power Crowth Proiections' Written testimony presented to the Nuclear Regulatory Com=ission's Hearing Board on the Generic Environ = ental Statement on Mixed Oxide Fuel (Plutonium Recycle) on behalf of the State of Wisconsin, March 4,1977 (with R.H. Williams).

The Need for Federal Suoport of Independent Poliev Analvsis, Testimony before the Subce==ittee on Science Research and Technology of the House Co==ittee on Science and Technology, February 18, 1977.

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1 Some Issues with Recard to Nuclear Research and Develooment. Briefing of the Subco==ittee on Fossil and Nuclear Research, Development and Demonstration, House Co==ittee on Science and Technology, February 11, 1977.

The Plutonium Economy: Whv We Should Wait and Whv We can Wait, Testimony before the California Energy Resources, Conservacitn, and Development Commission, February 2, 1977.

Criticue of the Nuclear Reculatory Co= mission's Reactor Saf ety Study, Te:ticony before the N.R.C.'s Advisory Co==ittee on Reactor Safeguards, January 4, 19}7.

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~7-Congressional Testimony, Etc. (Cont 'd)

Emergency Planning for Nuclear Reactor Accidents, Testimony before the New York City Board of Health, August 12, 1976.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Reactor Safety Studyt What is it Good For?

in Reactor Safety Study (Rasmussen Reoort), Oversight Hearing before the Subcom=itte+ :

on Energy and Environment, House Co=mittee on Interior and Insular Affairs, June 11, '

197 6, pp.114-138.

Issues Relating to the Use of Nuclear Energy in New York State. Talk to the New York State Legislature, May 5, 1976.

I Issues Bearing on the Need for and the Timing of the U.S. Liquid Metal Fast Breed er Reactor, Report prepared for the Subcomittee on Energy and Environment, U.S.

House Interior Conraittee (Committee Print No.16, May,1976).

4 Federal Support for Public Interest Science, Testimony before the Subcommi'ttee on the National Science Foundation of the U.S. Senate Committee on Labor and Public Welfare, April 21, 1975.

A Roadmap to the Major Issues Relating to Nuclear Energy. Briefing to the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment of the House Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, U.S. I Congress, April 24, 1975 (reprinted in Oversight Hearinas on Nuclear Enerrv-Overview of the Major Isrsues by the same subcommittee April-May 1975, p. Sff).

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. Elementary Particle Physics

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Analysis of the Exoerimental Evidence for the Existence of an H State with T=2 (with P.P. Divakaran), Phys. Rev. Letters 12, 128-132 (1964).

The Charne-Exchanne Contributions to r+ Emission in Hvoernuclear Decav (with R.H. Dalitz), Nuovo Cimento j34, 799-806 (1964).

Parity and Sien of the E+ + n + r+ Decav Amolitude and a Model for r+ Emission in Hvrernuclear Decavs, Phys. Rev.136, B455-B471 (1964).

Electronarnetic A -- I* Mixin2 and Charme Svemetry for the A-Hveeron (with R.H. Dalitz),

Physics Letters 10, 153-157 (1964).

4 Consequences of Analyticity and Unitarity for Partial Wave Amplitudes (with A.P. Balachandran), Annals of Physics 30, 446-475 (1964).

T SU(6) and the Electromannetic Form Factors (with K.J. Barnes and P. Carruthers),

1 Phys. Rev. Letters M, 82-84 (1965).

Vector Mason Couplinas to the Baryons (with H. Sugawara), Phys. Rev. 145, 1331 (1966).

K Masonic X-rays and the Y-N Scattering Lengths (with J.H. Douglas), Phys. Rev.146, t

1042 (1966).

Zero Parameter Model of the N-N Potential (with H. Sugawara), Phys. Rev. 172, 1764 (1963)

(n!)I= 0.1 and 5-N Scattering Lengths: Experimental and Theoretical Values (with J.K. Kim), Phys. Rev. Letters jyD, 1303 (1968).

Svstematic Test of the Sof t Meson Theorems and of a Theorv of SU(3) x SU(3) Symmetry Breaking (with J.K. Kim), Phys. Rev. Letters,2_2_, 740 (1969).

The Coupling Constants of the Y*n (1405): Experiment and Theory (with J.K. Kim), Phys.

Rev. 184, 1961 (1969).

t The Nature of SU(3) x SU(3) Svmmetrv Breaking -- Results from a Systematic Test of the Sof t Meson Theorems (with J.K. Kim), Phys. Rev. D1, 151 (1970).

i S-Wave Bound States Implied by the SU(3) x SU(3) Charge Algebra (with J. Finkelstein),

l Physics Letters 313, 226 (1970).

1 C2ntrifugal Barrier Effects in Meson Decavs, published in Experimental Meson Spectroscopy (C. Baltay and A.H. Rosenf eld, eds., Columbia University Press,1970).

(with C. Quigg).

Centrifuzal Barrier Ef fects in Resenance Partial Decav Wid ths, Shapes, and Production Amplitudes (with C. Quigg), Phys. Rev. DS,,

624 (1972).

. Final State Interaction Contributions to the Exotic Forward Peak in K+Y*-(1385) j (with D. Sivers), Phys. Rev. D6, 874 (1972).

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_9 Incoherent Multiple Scatterina Ef fects in the Production of Particles on Nuclear Targets (with J.S. Trefil), Phys. Rev. D7, 2000 (1973).

Some Introductorv Lectures on Strong Interaction Theorv for Exoerimentalists, Argonne High Energy Physics Report 7226 (1972).

v + p-* u- + A++(1236) : Comparison with Theory (with P. Schreiner), Phys. Rev.

Letters 30, 339 (1973).

Lonzer article with same accroxinate title as ref. 20 Nuclear Physics, Su==er 1973.

Particle Production and the Rising Proton-Proton Cross-sections (with D. Sivers),

Phys. Rev., Spring 1974 l

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