RS-14-151, Clinton, Unit 1 - Attachment 3, Kld TR-632, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 3

Clinton, Unit 1 - Attachment 3, Kld TR-632, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 3

ML14141A059
Person / Time
Site:	Clinton
Issue date:	04/18/2014
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Document Control Desk, NRC/FSME, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
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ML14141A046	List: ML14141A047 ML14141A048 ML14141A049 ML14141A050 ML14141A051 ML14141A053 ML14141A054 ML14141A055 ML14141A056 ML14141A057 ML14141A058 ML14141A059 ML14141A060 ML14141A061 ML14141A062 ML14141A063 ML14141A064 ML14141A065 ML14141A066 ML14141A067 RS-14-151, Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 4 of 5 RS-14-151, Braidwood, Byron, Clinton, Dresden, and Peach Bottom - 10 CFR 50, Appendix E - Evacuation Time Estimate Analysis Information RS-14-151, Braidwood, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 1, Kld TR-635, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 1 of 4 RS-14-151, Braidwood, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 1, Kld TR-635, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 4 RS-14-151, Braidwood, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 1, Kld TR-635, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 4 RS-14-151, Braidwood, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 1, Kld TR-635, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 4 of 4 RS-14-151, Byron, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 2, Kld TR-637, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 1 of 4 RS-14-151, Byron, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 2, Kld TR-637, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 4 RS-14-151, Byron, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 2, Kld TR-637, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 4 RS-14-151, Byron, Units 1 and 2 - Attachment 2, Kld TR-637, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 4 of 4 RS-14-151, Clinton, Unit 1 - Attachment 3, Kld TR-632, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 1 of 3 RS-14-151, Clinton, Unit 1 - Attachment 3, Kld TR-632, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 3 RS-14-151, Clinton, Unit 1 - Attachment 3, Kld TR-632, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 3 RS-14-151, Dresden, Units 2 and 3 - Attachment 4, Kld TR-634, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 1 of 4 RS-14-151, Dresden, Units 2 and 3 - Attachment 4, Kld TR-634, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 4 RS-14-151, Dresden, Units 2 and 3 - Attachment 4, Kld TR-634, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 4 RS-14-151, Dresden, Units 2 and 3 - Attachment 4, Kld TR-634, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 4 of 4 RS-14-151, Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 1 of 5 RS-14-151, Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 2 of 5 RS-14-151, Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 3 of 5 RS-14-151, Peach Bottom, Units 1, 2, and 3 - Attachment 5, Kld TR-636, Rev. 0, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates. Part 5 of 5
References
RS-14-151 KLD TR-632, Rev. 0
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7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover the 16 Evacuation Regions within the CLN EPZ and the 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regions for all Evacuation Scenarios.

The ETE for the 2-mile radius in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the Evacuation Regions considered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.

7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation"Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in Sub-areas for which an Advisory to Evacuate has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.The ETE for the CLN EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in Sub-areas outside of the Evacuation Region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.

Similarly, it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 16,458 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.

See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the CLN site, has the potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. Sub-areas comprising the 2 mile radius are advised to evacuate immediately.

2. Sub-areas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the 2 mile radius is cleared.Clinton Power Station 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile radius, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate when approximately 90% of the 2 mile radius evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile radius boundary.5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.The entire 2-mile radius and 5-mile radius for CLN is comprised of a single Sub-area -Sub-area 1. In order to consider a staged evacuation in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002, Sub-area I was divided into two pieces -the 2-mile radius and the remainder of the Sub-area excluding the 2-mile radius -as shown in Figure H-16. This postulated division of Sub-area 1 is purely for analytical purposes (to quantify the ETE impact of staged evacuation) and does not imply or require Exelon or the offsite agencies to divide the Sub-area in the public information or in their emergency plans.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.

7.3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-6 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ (Region R02) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5): The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.

However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

• Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);9 Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, I h, 3 h); and-Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.

These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.

Congestion can develop around concentrations of population and Clinton Power Station 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 traffic bottlenecks.

Figure 7-3 displays the traffic congestion within the EPZ 30 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE). At this time, about one third of transients and employees have begun their evacuation trips, as well as about 16% of the EPZ residents.

Light traffic (LOS D or better) exists on the major evacuation routes within Clinton, the most densely populated area of the EPZ. CR-14 also experiences light traffic from transients leaving Clinton Lake State Recreation areas. All roadways in the EPZ are operating at LOS D or better.At 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays peak traffic congestion within the EPZ. At this time, almost two thirds of evacuees have begun their evacuation trip and one half have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion forms along the evacuation routes within Clinton. US-51 South, US-51 Business South, Illinois State Route 10 (IL-10), and Illini Drive are operating at LOS F as vehicles evacuating westbound away from CLN mix with those evacuating vehicles within the City of Clinton. Congestion exists in the Shadow Region on N Wood Street as evacuating vehicles from Maroa have a stop sign at the intersection with US-51 South. Light traffic exists in the Shadow Region along IL-54 and IL-10; however, all of these links are operating at LOS E or better. Due to the low population that resides within the 2 and 5-Mile region (Sub-area

1) and the rapid mobilization of employees and transients, the 2 and 5-Mile region is clear of traffic congestion, with all roadways operating at LOS A at 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> after the ATE.At 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 30 minutes after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-5, congestion within the City of Clinton has dissipated.

At this time, about 86% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips, and 77% of vehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Light traffic exists on evacuation routes leaving Clinton with all roadways operating at LOS D or better. Congestion persists on N Wood Street in Maroa in the Shadow Region. All other links within the Shadow Region are operating at LOS E or better.At 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 55 minutes after the ATE, Figure 7-6 shows that all congestion in the EPZ has cleared. At this time, 94% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips and 91% have evacuated.

ETE is being dictated by trip generation as evidenced by the close agreement between the number of vehicles that have begun their evacuation trip and those that have evacuated the EPZ (94% versus 91%). All roadways in the EPZ are operating at LOS A at this time. All roadways within the Shadow Region are operating at LOS A just five minutes later, at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the ATE, as the traffic volume on IL-54 declines.The traffic congestion in the study area is minimal due to the presence of several serviceable evacuation routes and the low population density within the EPZ.7.4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-7 through Figure 7-20. These figures indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R02) under the indicated conditions.

One figure is presented for each scenario considered.

As indicated in Figure 7-7, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.

Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic Clinton Power Station 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 demand builds rapidly (slopes increase).

When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ.Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by these curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal.

Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Results Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 16 Evacuation Regions and all 14 Evacuation Scenarios.

Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile radius for both a staged and un-staged evacuation of Sub-area 1 which encompasses the entire 2-mile radius and 5-mile radius as previously discussed.

The tables are organized as follows: ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. All Scenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-3 population within the 2-mile radius, to evacuate from the 2-mile radius with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations of the balance of population in Sub-area 1.ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-4 population within the 2-mile radius, to evacuate from the 2-mile radius with both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations of the balance of population in Sub-area 1.The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-6.There is no congestion within the 2 and 5-mile region. Congestion within the EPZ is located in Clinton (Sub-area

7) which is beyond the 2 and 5-mile region. This is reflected in the ETE statistics:

Clinton Power Station 7-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

• The 90th percentile ETE for Region R01 (2 and 5-mile region) mimic trip generation time and are generally between 1:10 (hr:min) and 1:30 and up to 1:55 for snow." The 90th percentile ETE for Region R02 (full EPZ) are approximately a half hour longer as a result of the limited traffic congestion within the City of Clinton. The 9 0 th percentile ETE for the Special Event for Region R02 are as much as 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 40 minutes longer than for RO1 as a result of the large number of transients present in the city for the event and the pronounced traffic congestion that develops." The 1 0 0 th percentile ETE is dictated by trip generation time with the exception of the Special Event.Comparison of Scenarios 9 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -Apple and Pork Festival -does have a significant impact on ETE at the 9 0 th and 1 0 0 th percentiles for those Regions that include the evacuation of Clinton and the rest of Sub-area 7 (Regions R02 and RIO-R14). The additional 27,921 vehicles present for the event drastically increase local congestion in Clinton and saturate all evacuate routes leaving the area. The 90th percentile increases by up to 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 35 minutes and the 100th percentile increases by up to 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 30 minutes.Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane on US-51 South (see Section 2.2, item 7 for additional information)

-does not have an impact on ETE at the 90th or 100th percentiles.

Sufficient capacity exists (with the one lane open on US-51 and the other routes -IL-54 and IL-10 -servicing Clinton) to handle all evacuating vehicles despite the loss of a lane on US-51.Despite the results of the roadway impact scenario, events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a lane on a major evacuation route, could impact ETE. State and local police could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming any of the major evacuation routes. All efforts should be made to remove the blockage, particularly within the first 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the evacuation when most people begin their evacuation trip.7.6 Staged Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies.Note that Region R16 is the same geographic area as Region R01. The times shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 are when the 2-mile radius is 90% clear and 100% clear, respectively.

The objective of a staged evacuation strategy is to ensure the ETE for the 2-mile radius is not impacted when evacuating people beyond 2 miles from the plant. As shown in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4, the ETE for the 2 mile radius is unchanged when a staged evacuation is implemented.

The reason for this is that the nearest traffic congestion to the plant is in Clinton -well beyond the 5-mile radius. This congestion does not extend upstream to the extent that it penetrates to within the 2-mile radius.Clinton Power Station 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The staged evacuation protective action strategy provides no benefit to the 2-mile radius.Staged evacuation is not recommended.

7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC guidance calls for the 9 0 th percentile).

The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table may then be identified using the following procedure:

1. Identify the applicable Scenario:* Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)* Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend* Time of Day" Midday" Evening" Weather Condition" Good Weather" Rain" Snow" Special Event" Apple and Pork Festival" Road Closure (One lane on US-51 South from US-51 Business to CR-18)" Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered" Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:

The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) for rain apply.* The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are not explicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) for snow apply.* The seasons are defined as follows: " Summer assumes that public schools are not in session." Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or Clinton Power Station 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 are travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region:* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction).

This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:

towards N, NNE, NE, ...* Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are given below: 0 2 and 5 Miles (Region R01)0 To EPZ Boundary (Regions R02 through R15)* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on the distance that the selected Region extends from the plant. Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.

Then, for the Scenario identified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 through Table 7-4 are labeled with the Scenario numbers.Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the Scenario number defined in Step 1.* Identify the row in the table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in Step 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.

Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:

• Sunday, August loth at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is toward the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radius and downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).

• The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population from within the impacted Region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 9 0 th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows: 1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors.

However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction toward the NE and read Region R04.Clinton Power Station 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and Region R04. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R04; it contains the ETE value of 1:50.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway Region Weather Rain We Rain I Rain Snow W Ratn Snow Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact Entire 2 and 5-Mile Region, and EPZ R0l1 1:20 1:25 1:10 1:10 [1:25 1:30 r1:30 1:55 1:20 1:20 1:50 11:25 ] 1:20 f1:20 [ R01 R02 1:55 1:55 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:05 1:45 4:00 1:55 R02 2 and S-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R03 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:20 1:25 1:50 1:30 1:20 1:25 R03 R04 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:55 R04 ROS 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:55 R05 R06 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 2:00 1:50 1:55 1:55 R06 R07 1:25 1:30 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:25 1:25 1:55 1:30 1:25 1:25 R07 R08 1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:30 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:25 1:25 1:50 1:30 1:25 1:25 R08 R09 1:35 1:35 1:20 1:20 1:30 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:30 1:30 2:00 1:30 1:30 1:35 R09 RIO 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:35 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:35 1:40 2:10 1:35 4:05 1:45 R10 R11 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:35 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:35 1:40 2:05 1:35 4:05 1:45 R11 R12 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:35 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:35 1:40 2:10 1:35 4:00 1:45 R12 R13 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:30 1:35 2:05 1:35 4:05 1:45 R13 R14 1:45 1:45 1:30 1:30 1:35 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:30 1:35 2:10 1:35 4:05 1:45 R14 R15 1:30 1:30 1:15 1:20 1:30 1:40 1:40 2:05 1:25 1:25 2:00 1:30 1:25 1:30 R15 Staged Evacuation Mile Radius and Keyhole to 5 Miles R16 1:20 1 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:25 1:30 11:30 1:55 1 1:20 11:201 1:50 1:25 1:20 1:20 R16 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summ__ Water SummWater Weather Weather Weather Weather Evente Sumpaer Midweek_ Weekend_ Midwee M__ nirwe k 2ekn andee 5-Miled RegonandEP Enie2 and 5-Mile Region , and Kyoet EPZ Budr R01 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R01 R02 3:20 3:20 3:20 13:20 3:20 3:20 13:20 14:20 13:20 13:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R02 RO 320 320 320 320 320 3:20 3:20 4:20o 3:20 3:20ol 4:2 3:20 3:20u320aRy R03 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R03 R04 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R04 R05 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R08 R06 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R06 R07 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 5:50 3:20 R07 ROB 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 5:45 3:20 ROB R09 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 5:45 3:20 R09 R10 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 5:40 3:20 R10 R11 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 5:40 3:20 R11 R12 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 4:20 3:20 3:20 3:20 R12-F-3:15Staged Evacuation Mile Radius and Keyhole to 5 Miles R16 3:15 3153:15 3:15 3:15 13:20 13:20 14:15 3:15 13:15 14:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 1 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-10 Rev. 0 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Radius within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway Region Weather Rain Rain G Rain Snow Ratn w Weather Weather Weather Weather R Weather R S Weather Event impact Un-staged Evacuation Mile Radius 2-Mile 2-Mil II Radius 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:05 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:05 1:05 1:00 1:00 Radius Un-staged Evacuation Mile and 5-Mile Region R01 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:05 1:00 1:00 1 1:00 1 1:00 1:00 1:05 1:05 1:00 1:00 R01 Staged Evacuation Mile Radius and Keyhole to 5 Miles R16 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:05 1:00 11:00 1:00 1 1:00 11:00 1:05 1:05 1:00 1:00 R16 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Radius within the Indicated Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend IWeekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rain Good Good Good Rain Snow GoohRGood Special Roadway Region Weather -Weather Weather Weather I Weather I S Weather Event Impa Un-staged Evacuation Mile Radius Radius 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 4:15 3:15 3:15 4:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 Radius Un-staged Evacuation Mile and S-Mile Region R01 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:151 4:15 1 3:15 13:15 1 4:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 RO1 Staged Evacuation Mile Radius and Keyhole to 5 Miles R16 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 3:151 4:15 1 3:15 13:151 4:15 3:15 3:15 3:15 R16 Clinton Power Station 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions Region Description Sub-area R01 2 and 5-Mile Region R02 Full EPZ Sub-area Region Wind Direction Toward: 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 7 1 8 Region I Wind Direction Toward: I 2-Mile Radius R16 I 5-Mile Reeion 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Keyhole: 2 and 5-Mile Region & 10 Miles Downwind I I Staged Evacuation:

2-Mile Radius & 5 Miles Downwind I* Plant Location E Region to be Evacuated:

100% Evacuation[:]

20% Shadow Evacuation y Shelter, then Evacuate Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-2. CLN Shadow Region 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Congestion Patterns at 00:30 ...Fo0sland 7x Bellflo wer ISu-a-- -ea-'----------

Way~7svI/eJ

/ Sub-area:

8 Sub-area:

3 I Sub-area." ...Sub-r. ......... 10 .. .10. .., =- ' .*" CLNE__ S Sub-area .7." 2, 10, BMi Rings 5 10"--/Shadow Region Ei3 -osle..CoE I n& E64I OO ......... .Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Clinton Power Station 7-15 Evacuation Time Estimate KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Congestion Patterns at 01:00 ---Fooslana f .B /--l...r/:"- /... .....-,A%...I- -45_ -- --Sub-area:-

7 "-- ..ene -Su-ae 6 .' Sub2- u-aea EL Sub-area Sb-a 8.S 2,S,10, 5M ile Rings b /AA ShdowRegion

.,1 -1 0 E. tgJ~ w .In .tr o .* -" "ti tM leh Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at I Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Congestion Patterns at 01:30 .//-y 1),. V, Sub-'ae-a:Sub-area:-2 A C u r 6 Sub-area:

3 Sub-ubaree:aSu -a4 Subare ..2, 5, 10, 15 Mile Rings S Shadow Region ... 1 3 .. .._I0_:_.0Es , klt ______________________Miles____

Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour and 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Congestion Patterns at 01:55 -...... _, ... ......Be rfAwr S ""aSb-area:) "-'L" ,&; Sub-area:

....ir?-'1~ne < Sub-area:

67 10 Sub-area:.~ 2, 5,1,1 M0 ig S a w R i --.. -.-;.-.- ~ v .-.J..; -..-I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ " su-ra

'-..* " -" ;" "" "i" <'la......_ n. .-.-- ... ._blIar-..ea:'.--.-6.;

,,,,

Su-ra5.:: 'S' ...... .. ... .. ." ° /," " ",'""" ', < .. ..Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour and 55 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2 and S-Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%16 14 C 12 z o108"G -6 2 LA 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-7. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 1 for Region R02 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2 and 5-Mile Region --Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%tw 03 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-8. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 2 for Region R02 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 6 100%18 16 bb 14.6m'~12 10 3 8 6 6> 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 3 for Region R02 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%4r-(U 0 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 4 for Region R02 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 6 100%UC w03 03 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario S for Region R02 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%M UCr U.'3 A03 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 6 for Region R02 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2 and 5-Mile Region -....-Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%16 14 ba C 12 S4-010 UJ 8 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 7 for Region ROZ Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%

• 100%bfl.-o (U j IA 0)16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 8 for Region R02 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%16 14 C 12~ ~10 S( a OJ 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 9 for Region R02 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ

• 90% 0 100%or (U 0 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 10 for Region R02 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%16 14 C 12.4.-10 EU Uiu 8_6)~ 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 11 for Region R02 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2 and 5-Mile Region --Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%12 10 M -o UC 0UE 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270 Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 12 for Region R02 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-2 and 5-Mile Region ---Entire EPZ 0 90%

• 100%an 4-mL 1A (U%n 0 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)300 330 360 Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 13 for Region R02 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)-2 and 5-Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%0 100%to LU W ZA.0'.C tv 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 240 270 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 14 for Region R02 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 7-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles.

The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, preschools, day camps, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; and (3)homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:

• Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. It is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes for school buses and 120 minutes for transit dependent buses extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.

Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the CLN EPZ indicates that schoolchildren will be evacuated to reception centers, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at the reception centers.As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency.

Therefore, children are evacuated to reception centers. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.

This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.

This study assumes that preschools, day-care centers, and day camps are also evacuated to reception centers and parents will pick up these children at the reception centers.Clinton Power Station 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:* Estimate demand for transit service* Estimate time to perform all transit functions* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the reception centers 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service based on the percentage of households with no vehicle available.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:* Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.

For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.

The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.

However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends (IES, 1981). Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.[20 +(2 xo) + 40 x L.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 200 people. Therefore, a total of 7 bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.Clinton Power Station 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the CLN EPZ: P = (EPZ Population

+ Average HH Size of EPZ) x % of HH with 0 Vehicles x Average HH Size of HH with 0 Vehicles P = (12,675 + 2.23) x 5.4% x 1.30 = 399 B= (0.5 x P) + 30 = 7 According to the telephone survey results, there are 1.30 people per house -on average -in households with no vehicles available.

The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by DeWitt County (discussed below in Section 8.5). This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not register with their local emergency response agency.8.2 School Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school, preschool and day camp population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all facilities within the EPZ for the 2012 school year.The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

• No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and preschools, 50 for middle and high schools, and 30 for day camps.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.It is recommended that the counties in the EPZ introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot, to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated.

In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).

Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Table 8-3 presents a list of the reception centers for each school, preschool, and day camp in the EPZ. Students will be transported to these reception centers where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.Clinton Power Station 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 8.3 Medical Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. A total of 168 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.

The capacity and current census for each facility was provided by Exelon. The number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound, and bedridden patients at each facility was obtained through phone calls to each facility.The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can be accommodated per ambulance trip; the number of wheelchair van runs assumes 4 wheelchairs per trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.

In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the reception center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.

For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R02 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.

The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Activity:

Mobilize Drivers (A--)B-->C)

Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.Activity:

Board Passengers (C--'D)A loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is assumed.Clinton Power Station 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

T=t+B+t=B+2t=B+-2, a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.

The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is: a a Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:

Travel to EPZ Boundary (D-4E)School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by Exelon and information obtained from calling medical facilities.

This data is summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table are the number of buses needed to evacuate schools, preschools, and day camps, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5) and correctional facilities (discussed below in Section 8.6). These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate all transit-dependent people in a single wave.The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate reception center. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good Clinton Power Station 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: Average Speed(-),n11 length of link i (mi) 60 min.L= x 1lhr.on link length of link i (mi.) 60 min.S{Delayonlinki (min.) + I hr.I ~ ~current speed on link i(r The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the reception center was computed assuming an average speed of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 55 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in Illinois is 55 mph.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the reception center. The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A->B->C, C->D, and D-)E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 7 = 1:55 for Clinton Christian Academy, in good weather, rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes).

The evacuation time to the reception center is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E->F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Evocuotion of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.

As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), almost all (96%)evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 120 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. Transit-dependent staging areas are defined in the March 2013 IPRA for CLN. The exact route traveled is not specified; therefore, routes were developed via the shortest path from the staging area to the respective reception center. Routes from these staging areas to the EPZ boundary are shown in Figure 8-2 and listed in Table 8-10. It is assumed that residents will walk to and congregate at these staging locations, and that they can arrive at Clinton Power Station 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 the staging locations within the 120 minute bus mobilization time (good weather).

Mobilization time is 10 minutes longer in rain and 20 minutes longer in snow to account for slower travel speeds and reduced roadway capacity.As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop. Longer pickup times of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow, respectively.

The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.

Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.

Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the bus route originating from the Weldon Fire House is computed as 120 + 7 + 30 = 2:40 for good weather, rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes. Here, 7 minutes is the time to travel 6.3 miles at 55 mph -the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 120 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.

The average single wave evacuation for transit-dependent people is about I hour longer than the general population 9 0 th percentile ETE.Activity:

Travel to Reception Centers (E--F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.

Assumed bus speeds of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity:

Passengers Leave Bus (F->G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.Activity:

Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G->C)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the reception center.Clinton Power Station 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The second-wave ETE for the bus route originating from the Weldon Fire House is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at reception center at 3:03 in good weather (2:40 to exit EPZ + 23 minute travel time to reception center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 23 minutes (equal to travel time to reception center) + 7 minutes (6.3 miles @ 55 mph to return to the start of the route) + 7 minutes (6.3 miles @ 55 mph to traverse the route again)= 37 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 2:40 + 0:23 + 0:15 + 0:37 + 0:30 = 4:25 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a one-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is about 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> longer than the ETE for the general population at the 9 0 th percentile.

The two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is up to 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> and 30 minutes longer than the ETE for the general population at the 9 0 th percentile.

The designated reception centers also serve as congregate care centers. Thus, the time needed to relocate transit-dependent evacuees from the reception centers to congregate care centers is not applicable.

Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except: Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients.

Wheelchair vans can accommodate 4 patients, and ambulances can accommodate 2 patients.Loading times of 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes per patient are assumed for ambulatory patients, wheelchair bound patients, and bedridden patients, respectively.

Table 8-4 indicates that 5 bus runs and 26 wheelchair van runs are needed to service all of the medical facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the municipalities and medical facilities can provide 294 buses, 11 vans, 36 wheelchair vans, and 33 ambulances.

Thus, there are sufficient resources to evacuate the ambulatory and wheelchair-bound persons from the medical facilities in a single wave.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes (100 in rain and 110 in snow). Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.

Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.

Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good Clinton Power Station 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 weather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary.

The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses and wheelchair vans at capacity is assumed such that the maximum loading times for buses and wheelchair vans are 30 and 20 minutes, respectively.

For example, the calculation of ETE for Allen Court (E Main St) with 5 ambulatory residents during good weather is: ETE: 90 + 5 x 1 + 10 = 105 min. or 1:45 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.It is assumed that the medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities outside of the EPZ. Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility is not considered in this analysis.8.5 Special Needs Population The special needs population were estimated from the transit-dependent population and data provided by DeWitt County. There are an estimated 14 homebound special needs people within the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate, Using the same breakdown as medical facilities for non-ambulatory persons, all 14 transit dependent people would require a wheelchair capable vehicle.ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.

The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle.It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory and wheelchair bound special needs households are spaced 3 miles apart. Van and bus speeds approximate 10 mph between households (10%slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minutes were used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow). The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary.

All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.'For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 14 wheelchair-bound households need to be serviced.

Given a wheelchair van capacity of 4 people, 4 wheelchair vans are needed to service the population.

The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 4 wheelchair vans are deployed, each with at most 4 stops, to service a total of 14 HH.Clinton Power Station 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

2. The ETE is calculated as follows: a. Van arrive at the first pickup location:

90 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:

3 @ 9 minutes = 27 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:

3 @ 5 minutes = 15 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:

5 minutes (5 miles @ 55 mph).ETE: 90 + 5 + 27 + 15 + 5 = 2:25 rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes The average ETE for homebound special needs is about 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> longer than the general population ETE at the 9 0 th percentile.

8.6 Correctional Facilities As detailed in Table E-8, there is one correctional facility within the EPZ -DeWitt County Jail.The total inmate population at this facility is 80 persons. According to the DeWitt County emergency plans and discussions with Exelon, the inmates would Shelter-in-Place if an evacuation were ordered. Thus, ETE are not computed for this facility.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 (Subsequent Wave)A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Reception Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service Time A-+ B Driver Mobilization B->C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C-->D Passengers Board the Bus D->E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E-4F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZ F--+G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Clinton Power Station 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure 8-2. Transit Dependent Bus Routes Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates 201 .0 5P H Siz S01 -No wit No wit -o Reurn Ri r Puli Public 12,675 2.23 5,684 5.4% 307 1.30 399 50% 200 H1..6%Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-2. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Population Demand Estimates 4 DeLand-Weldon Elementary School 26 1 4 DeLand-Weldon High School 52 2 7 Clinton Christian Academy 29 1 7 Clinton Junior High School 449 9 7 Clinton Senior High School 582 12 7 Douglas Elementary School 191 3 7 Lincoln Elementary School 316 5 7 Washington Elementary School 183 3 7 Webster Elementary School 325 5 SCHOOL TOTAL: 2,153 41 7 Christ Lutheran Pre-School 20 1 7 Head Start 30 1 7 Kid Konnection 60 1 PRESCHOOL TOTAL: 110 3 6 Little Galilee Christian Assembly Church Camp 120 4 8 Calvary United Pentecostal Church Camp 420 14 DAY CAMP TOTAL: 540 18 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-3. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Reception Centers Facility Reception Center Schools Clinton Junior High School Clinton Senior High School Douglas Elementary School Lincoln Elementary School Washington Elementary School Webster Elementary School Horton Field House DeLand-Weldon Elementary School Parkland College DeLand-WeldonHighSchool

_______________

Clinton Christian Academy Stephen Decatur Middle School Christ Lutheran Pre-School

-I______________

Head Start Horton Field House Kid Konnection Horton Field House Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit Demand 7 Allen Court (E Main St) Clinton 8 8 _ 3 0 1 1 0 7Allen Court (N Alexander St) Clno88800100 7 Dr. John Warner Hospital Clinton 25 6 2 4 0 1 1 0 7 Hawthorne Inn Clinton 27 26 24 2 0 7 Manor Court Clinton 131 1 120 30 90 0 1 23 0 DeWitt County Subtotal:

1 199 j168 69 9j9 90 5j26j 0 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Trnprtto Whechi DeWitt County 23 9 1 4 City of Decatur 86 0 6 12 City of Champaign 0 0 0 10 City of Bloomington 185 0 27 7 Allen Court 0 1 0 0 Hawthorne Inn 0 1 2 0 Schools, Preschools, Day Camps (Table 8-2): 62 0 0 0 Medical Facilities (Table 8-4): 5 0 26 0 Transit-Dependent Population (Table 8-10): 7 0 0 0 Homebound Special Needs (Section 8.5): 0 0 4 0 Correctional Facilities (Section 8.6): 0 00 Note: uewi[ Lounty Jail Sneiters-in-riace.

nro buses are neeaea to evacuate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions Bus Route Nodes Traversed from Route Start to EPZ Number Description Boundary 1 Clinton Christian Academy, Transit Dependent

-Clinton Assembly of God Church 473,474,475,476,477,302,303,304, 305,306 Clinton Junior High School, Clinton Senior High 276, 315, 281, 282, 283, 284, 285, 286, School 287, 288, 289, 504, 505, 506, 676 DeLand-Weldon Elementary School, DeLand-Wedn4ihScol415, 414, 363, 361, 360 Weldon High School Douglass Elementary School, Lincoln Elementary 272 273,274,316,315,281,282,283, School, Washington Elementary School, Head Start, Christ Lutheran Preschool, Transit 284, 2,6 Dependent

-Clinton First Christian Church 275, 272, 273, 274, 316, 315, 281, 282, Webster Elementary School, Allen Court (N 283,282,286,27,3 28,3 289, 9 Alexander St) 283, 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 504, 505, 506, 676 272, 273, 274, 316, 276, 315, 281, 282, 10 Kid Konnection 283, 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 504, 505, 506, 676 13 Dr. John Warner Hospital 255, 256, 473, 474, 475, 476, 477, 302, 303, 304, 305, 306 14 Manor Court, Hawthorne inn 733, 262, 731, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 306 16 Allen Court (E Main St) 250, 251, 264, 255, 256, 473, 474, 475, 476, 477, 302, 303, 304, 305, 306 20 Transit Dependent

-Wapella Fire House 317, 327, 288, 289, 504, 505, 506, 676 21 Transit Dependent

-Weldon Fire House 213, 417, 416, 415, 414, 363, 361, 360 22 Little Galilee Christian Camp 305, 306, 307 23 Calvary United Pentecostal Camp 505, 506, 676 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-7. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Clinton Christian Academy 90 15 6.6 55.0 7 Clinton Junior High School 90 15 11.2 55.0 12 Clinton Senior High School 90 15 10.5 55.0 11 DeLand-Weldon Elementary 90 15 2.6 54.5 3 School DeLand-Weldon High School 90 15 2.5 54.5 3 Douglas Elementary School 90 15 9.8 55.0 11 Lincoln Elementary School 90 15 9.7 55.0 11 Washington Elementary School 90 15 9.4 55.0 10 Webster Elementary School 90 15 9.3 55.0 10 School Maximum for EPZ: School Average for EPZ: PRESC Christ Lutheran Pre-School 90 15 9.9 55.0 11 Head Start 90 15 11.2 55.0 12 Kid Konnection 90 15 10.4 55.0 11 12.4 13 16.4 18 16.4 18 21.5 23 21.5 23 16.4 18 16.4 18 16.4 18 16.4 18 School Maximum: 16.4 18 16.4 18 16.4 18 Preschool Maximum: 12 -U-1.,. A.m.--..0 Preschool Maximum for EPZ: 16.4 18 12.4 13 Day Camp Maximum: Day Camp Average: Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-8. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-9. School, Preschool, and Day Camp Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes Wapell a grH1ing Ae e e aRel eHus .Tri n to tp.7 Weldon Fire House 1 Picks up evacuees at the Weldon Fire House. Travels to the Reception Center located at Parkland College. Services Sub-area 1.6.3 Clinton Assembly of God Church 3 Picks up evacuees at the Clinton Assembly of God Church. Travels to Reception 6.6 Center located at Stephen Decatur Middle School. Services Sub-area 7.Clinton First Christian Church 2 Picks up evacuees at the Clinton First Christian Church. Travels to the Reception 9.Center located at Horton Field House. Services Sub-area 7.Wapella Fire House 1 Picks up evacuees at the Wapella Fire House. Travels to the Reception Center 4.located at Horton Field House. Services Sub-area 8.Total: 7 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Weldon Fire House 1 120 I 6.3 I 55.0 7 30 21.5 23 5 10 37 30 Clinton Assembly of 1-3 120 6.6 55.0 7 30 God Church Clinton First Christian 1-2 120 9.3 55.0 10 30 Church Wapella Fire House Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 12.3 13 5 10 27 30 16.4 18 5 10 38 30 16.4 18 5 10 28 30Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Weldon Fire House 1 130 6.3 50.0 8 40 21.5 26 5 10 40 40 Clinton Assembly of 1-3 130 6.6 50.0 8 40 God Church Clinton First Christian 1-2 130 9.3 50.0 11 40 Church Wapella Fire House Maximum ETE: Average ETE: 12.3 15 5 10 30 40 16.4 20 5 10 41 40 16.4 20 5 10 31 40 Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Clinton Power Station 8-25 Evacuation Time Estimate KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Ambulator Tota to 5 .1P14 Moiizto (mi per Lodn Dist. To EPZ Bonar Men c Fot E Mn Sts P l T Allen Court (E Main St) Ambulatory 90 1 5 5 8.1 10 1:45 Wheelchair bound 90 5 3 15 8.1 10 1:55 Allen Court (N Alexander St) Ambulatory 90 1 8 8 9.5 10 1:50 Dr. John Warner Hospital Ambulatory 90 1 2 2 6.8 7 1:40 Wheelchair bound 90 5 4 20 6.8 7 2:00 Hawthorne Inn Ambulatory 90 1 24 24 6.8 7 2:05 Wheelchair bound 90 5 2 10 6.8 7 1:50 Manor Court Ambulatory 90 1 30 30 6.8 7 2:10 Manor __ourt_ Wheelchair bound 90 5 90 20 6.8 7 2:00 Maximum ETE: 2:10 Average ETE: 1:55 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Allen Court (N Alexander St) Ambulatory10189.11:0 Ambulatory 100 1 22 6.8 8 1:50 Dr.t Tothn tone osita Mr. J W r pWheelchair bound 100 Di4 20 6.8 8 2:10 Awthorn in Ambulatory 100 1 2 24 6.8 8 2:15 Wheelchair bound 100 5 2 10 6.8 8 2:00 Manor Court Ambulatory 100 1 30 30 6.8 8 2:20 1 Wheelchair bound 100 5 90 20 6.8 8 2:10 Maximum ETE: 2:20 MaxmumETI 2:20 Average ETE: 2:05 2:0____Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Dr. John W arn Sta -Ambulatory 110 1 25 8.1 13 2:10 Wheelchair bound 110 5 415 8.1 12 2:20 Allen Court (N Alexander St) Ambulatory 110 1 88 9.5 13 2:15 Dr onWre optl Ambulatory 110 1 22 6.8 10 2:05 Dr onWre optl Wheelchair bound 110 5 20 6.8 9 2:20 Hawthorne Inn Ambulatory 110 1 24 24 6.8 9 2:25 Wheelchair bound 110 5 2 10 6.8 9 2:10 Manor Court Ambulatory 110 1 30 30 6.8 9 2:30 Wheelchair bound 110 5 90 20 6.8 9 2:20 Maximum ETE: 2:30 Average ETE: 2:20 Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Mobiizg Loain Loain Tim to 0 Pe pl tio Tim at -rvet Tim at -Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include: " Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers)." Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T.

All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version." A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are: 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.We employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.

There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.

For example: " A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.

• An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process: 1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.

2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment (see Figures 7-3 through 7-6).This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion.

Any critical intersections that would benefit from traffic or access control which are not already identified in the existing offsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs.Clinton Power Station 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

3. The existing TCPs and ACPs, and how they were applied in this study, are discussed in Appendix G.4. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a more pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and ACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the power plant. These priorities should be assigned by state/local emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.

The ETE simulations discussed in Section 7.3 (see Figures 7-3 through 7-6) indicate minimal congestion within the EPZ. As such, no additional TCPs or ACPs are identified as a result of this study. The existing traffic management plans are adequate.The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS)can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information.

DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information.

Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing ACP or TCP locations in the offsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals. Appendix K, Table K-2 identifies those intersections that were modeled as TCPs.Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> have elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.

Clinton Power Station 9-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:

• Routing from a Sub-area being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ." Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable.

The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.See Appendices B through D for further discussion.

The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to General Reception Centers is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.

Note the General Reception Centers also serve as congregate care centers and designated shelters according to the state emergency plan.Figure 10-1 presents an overview of the General Reception Centers servicing the EPZ. The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2.It is assumed that all school evacuees will also be taken to the General Reception Centers and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians.

Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest General Reception Center depending on which Sub-area they reside in.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 10-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Denersa z HoIrlon Field House (ada--, ----------

---

. .Wtr----+-< BI ingtonn_ Cty- Ellott Ellsworth Arrowsmith 66- j~ axt Stanford Ii Sa-brook I~ ~ow s -NBelt flower Fooslen -Mc an Fisher_1 ...Atlan .. 0 4 -,a----- I* ',.re. ,u "m -+. .Wena ynesville h sbr Bees~ ~ ~~SLra 8 u-ra4I RCSC olg L ,t,.We--l Land -I -e eIn 1 Kennd' 'Sub-Iea:

6 -a W Zi ll- " Urb-na Josep Sub-area:

"_nrnn -M n oSvoya* General Reception Center tv esdale Sub-are- ,e~p' e *-L e a t u r I,,-ara:Y ,.2, , 10, 15MIleRings Middll e School C-Shad,<ow Region Decaur,,., i, CO;SO7 ? < se,,,+- ,,= ° __ __ __ __ _ __ __ __ __ _ __ __ __ Mie Figure 10-1. General Reception Centers Clinton Power Station 10-2 KID Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 II Kerins/O i-- _ _ I i L, o ..--I ... LkE .iro .T -/Sub-area:

7 ..!T ]II n Su b-a~rea: 76 Y-N *.EN I, CD N* Evauto Route B _N'df -..- -SuSub-rea:a I ~ ~ -,f Bil N. _ ~ II 10 , ll MieRn -[KShadow Sub-area':

7 NON "NCNli 3 Sub-area:

2 A?-A Sub-arba:

3 f NCIEC4 -~ \~ .--CDECECCC N lEEDS IDDENO~l rd J .E~lEN~fl I L IS N P 2 j"1 ECEDNEO~5E

~ .It ~ CONONIIa CCECNNEN 1 MittC RNDlIN Ok CFCSJ _____ 0Dýre v u ara MD CN CIECOI ' -~ CEC ad ERE) EEN d -J17 Su-ra05 lE-1 CEENDEENCE

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J a[i N b~S~AI .. .. -Leg OSlO __10 I 11 Miles I Figure 10-2. Major Evacuation Routes 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation.

There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement.

Surveillance can take several forms.1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.

4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.

These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery.

It is the responsibility of the offsite response organizations to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that: " They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes." Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.Consideration should also be given that the state and local emergency management agencies encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.

Clinton Power Station 11-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate.

The state radiological emergency plan does not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation.

Should procedures not already exist, the following alternative or complementary approach is suggested.

The suggested procedure employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.

It is reasonable to assume for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate.On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.The confirmation process should start at about 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Figure 5-4). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y 2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of Sub-areas), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.If this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and could be periodically updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize.

This 2 hour2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.

Other techniques could also be considered.

After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.

Clinton Power Station 12-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.

Reference:

Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling McGraw Hill, 1971 Given:* No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 5,800" Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20" Allowable error margin, e: 0.05" Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p=F+e=0.25; q=1-p=0.75 A 2 pq + e 3 n = -308 e2 Finite population correction:

nN nF -=293 n+N-1 29 Thus, approximately 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated.

If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 208.Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume: " Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers):

30 seconds" Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds" Time for 4 rings plus short conversation:

60 sec." Interval between calls: 20 sec.Person Hours: 300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20]3600 7.6 3600 Clinton Power Station 12-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 13 REFERENCES Agarwal, M. et. al. Proceedings of the 2005 Mid-Continent Transportation Research Symposium, "Impacts of Weather on Urban Freeway Traffic Flow Characteristics and Facility Capacity," August 2005. (Agarwal, 2005).Exelon. EP-AA-1003, Revision 23, "Exelon Nuclear Radiological Emergency Plan Annex for Clinton Station," June 2013. (Exelon, 2013).Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Washington, D.C., 2013. (HPMS, 2013).Institute for Environmental Studies (IES), University of Toronto. "The Mississauga Evacuation Final Report," June 1981. (IES, 1981).Lieberman, E. Publication Transportation Research Record 772, "Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection," 1980. (Lieberman, 1980).Lieberman, E., Xin, W. "Macroscopic Traffic Modeling For Large-Scale Evacuation Planning", presented at the TRB 2012 Annual Meeting, January 2012. (Lieberman, 2012).McShane, W. & Lieberman, E. "Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of an Approach," Publication Transportation Research Record 772, 1980. (McShane, 1980).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-1745, "Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones," November, 1980. (NRC, 1980a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-4873, PNL-6171, "Benchmark Study of the I-DYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-4874, PNL-6172, "The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Changes in Input Parameters for the I-DYNEV Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988b).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, "Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants," November 1980. (NRC, 1980b).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-6863, SAND2004-5900, "Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants," January 2005. (NRC, 2005).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-7002, SAND 2010-0061P, "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies," November 2011. (NRC, 2011a).Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 -Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, 2011.(NRC, 2011b).State of Illinois, "Illinois Plan For Radiological Accidents (IPRA) Clinton -Volume VIII," March 2013. (IPRA, 2013).Clinton Power Station 13-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Transportation Research Board (TRB). "Highway Capacity Manual." National Research Council, Washington, DC, 2010. (TRB, 2010).Zhang, L. and Levinson, D. "Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks," Transportation Research Record 1883, 2004. (Zhang, 2004).13-2 KLD Engineering, p.c.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate 13-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-i. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Term Definiio Analysis Network Link Measures of Effectiveness Node Origin Prevailing Roadway and Traffic Conditions A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.

Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.

Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g., composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).

Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.The cycle length is expressed in seconds.A single combination of signal indications.

The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.Service Rate Service Volume Signal Cycle Length Signal Interval Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate A-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I~3 TemDfnto0 Signal Phase Traffic (Trip) Assignment Traffic Density Traffic (Trip) Distribution Traffic Simulation Traffic Volume Travel Mode Trip Table or Origin-Destination Matrix Turning Capacity A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection.

The phase duration is expressed in seconds.A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives.

In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance.

These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.

The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations.

These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.

Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate A-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios.

DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEV II System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost." Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario.

That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these"best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways.

The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip"cost", as discussed later.The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified"geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements.

DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.Clinton Power Station B-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations.

The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEV II using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling.

Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion.

To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions.

The modeling principles of DTRAD include: " It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several"efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose." The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling".

Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed.

The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSL). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression." DTRAD executes the traffic assignment algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user." Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as c, = ata+ +i8t, + vsa, wherecais the generalized cost for link a, and a,fl, andyare cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively.

Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions.

The DYNEV simulation model Clinton Power Station B-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior.

This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.

The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session).

A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).

The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant: Sa=- 13 In (p), 0 _< p < I; 13 >0 d, pdo dn= Distance of node, n, from the plant do =Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 13 = Scaling factor The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the Shadow Region. Note that the supplemental cost, sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is (near, far from) the power plant.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote: Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium".

It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful]

condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective"costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e., commuters).

Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Start of next DTRAD Session Set To = Clock time.Archive System State at To I Define latest Link Turn Percentages I-B Execute Simulation Model from time, To to T 1 (burn time)I Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T 1 I Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages Retrieve System State at To Apply new Link Turn Percents DTRAD iteration converges?

No Yes Next iteration Simulate from To to T2 (DTA session duration)Set Clock to T7a Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate B-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX C DYNEV Traffic Simulation Model C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIMULATION MODEL The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of traffic flow in terms of aggregate variables:

vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates trips from "sources" and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time distributions.

The model simulates the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At intervals, the model outputs Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)such as those listed in Table C-1.Model Features Include: " Explicit consideration is taken of the variation in density over the time step; an iterative procedure is employed to calculate an average density over the simulation time step for the purpose of computing a mean speed for moving vehicles.* Multiple turn movements can be serviced on one link; a separate algorithm is used to estimate the number of (fractional) lanes assigned to the vehicles performing each turn movement, based, in part, on the turn percentages provided by the DTRAD model." At any point in time, traffic flow on a link is subdivided into two classifications:

queued and moving vehicles.

The number of vehicles in each classification is computed.

Vehicle spillback, stratified by turn movement for each network link, is explicitly considered and quantified.

The propagation of stopping waves from link to link is computed within each time step of the simulation.

There is no "vertical stacking" of queues on a link.* Any link can accommodate "source flow" from zones via side streets and parking facilities that are not explicitly represented.

This flow represents the evacuating trips that are generated at the source.* The relation between the number of vehicles occupying the link and its storage capacity is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.

If the available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator applies a "metering" rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and source node to ensure that the available storage capacity is not exceeded.* A "path network" that represents the specified traffic movements from each network link is constructed by the model; this path network is utilized by the DTRAD model." A two-way interface with DTRAD: (1) provides link travel times; (2) receives data that translates into link turn percentages." Provides MOE to animation software, EVAN" Calculates ETE statistics Clinton Power Station C-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 All traffic simulation models are data-intensive.

Table C-2 outlines the necessary input data elements.To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent roadway sections:

rural, multi-lane, urban streets or freeways.

The nodes of the network generally represent intersections or points along a section where a geometric property changes (e.g. a lane drop, change in grade or free flow speed).Figure C-i is an example of a small network representation.

The freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (20,21), (21,22), and (22,23). Links (8001, 19) and (3, 8011) are Entry and Exit links, respectively.

An arterial extends from node 3 to node 19 and is partially subsumed within a grid network. Note that links (21,22) and (17,19) are grade-separated.

Table C-1. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II MeasureUnitsAppie To Vehicles Discharged Vehicles Link, Network, Exit Link Speed Miles/Hours (mph) Link, Network Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link Level of Service LOS Link Content Vehicles Network Travel Time Vehicle-hours Network Evacuated Vehicles Vehicles Network, Exit Link Trip Travel Time Vehicle-minutes/trip Network Capacity Utilization Percent Exit Link Attraction Percent of total evacuating vehicles Exit Link Max Queue Vehicles Node, Approach Time of Max Queue Hours:minutes Node, Approach Route Statistics Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel Route Time (min)Mean Travel Time Minutes Evacuation Trips; Network c-2 KLD Engineering, p.c.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-2. Input Requirements for the DYNEV II Model HIGHWAY NETWORK* Links defined by upstream and downstream node numbers" Link lengths* Number of lanes (up to 9) and channelization" Turn bays (1 to 3 lanes)* Destination (exit) nodes" Network topology defined in terms of downstream nodes for each receiving link" Node Coordinates (X,Y)" Nuclear Power Plant Coordinates (X,Y)GENERATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES 0 On all entry links and source nodes (origins), by Time Period TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS" Traffic signals: link-specific, turn movement specific* Signal control treated as fixed time or actuated* Location of traffic control points (these are represented as actuated signals)" Stop and Yield signs" Right-turn-on-red (RTOR)" Route diversion specifications" Turn restrictions" Lane control (e.g. lane closure, movement-specific)

DRIVER'S AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

• Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms:

free-flow speed, discharge headway* Bus route designation.

DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT" Candidate destination nodes for each origin (optional)" Duration of DTA sessions" Duration of simulation "burn time"" Desired number of destination nodes per origin INCIDENTS" Identify and Schedule of closed lanes* Identify and Schedule of closed links Clinton Power Station C-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Entry, Exit Nodes are numbered 8xxx Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.1 Methodology C.1.1 The Fundamental Diagram It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flow-density and speed-density relationships.

Rather than "settling for" a triangular representation, a more realistic representation that includes a "capacity drop", (I-R)Qmax, at the critical density when flow conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This representation, shown in Figure C-2, asserts a constant free speed up to a density, kf, and then a linear reduction in speed in the range, kf _< k _< kc = 45 vpm, the density at capacity.

In the flow-density plane, a quadratic relationship is prescribed in the range, kc < k _< ks = 95 vpm which roughly represents the "stop-and-go" condition of severe congestion.

The value of flow rate, Qs, corresponding to ks, is approximated at 0.7 RQmax. A linear relationship between ks and kj completes the diagram shown in Figure C-2. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms.The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration values for each link are: (1) Free speed, vf ; (2) Capacity, Qmax ; (3) Critical density, kc =45 vpm; (4) Capacity Drop Factor, R = 0.9 ; (5) Jam density, k*. Then, v, -Qma, kf = kc -kc '(vfvc) k"C Setting k = k-k, thenQ=RQ.ax RQmax k2 for 0 < k < ks = 50 .it can be Qmax 8333 shown that Q = (0.98 -0.0056 k) RQmax for ks -<k k- kp where ks = 50 and W = 175.C.1.2 The Simulation Model The simulation model solves a sequence of "unit problems".

Each unit problem computes the movement of traffic on a link, for each specified turn movement, over a specified time interval (TI) which serves as the simulation time step for all links. Figure C-3 is a representation of the unit problem in the time-distance plane. Table C-3 is a glossary of terms that are referenced in the following description of the unit problem procedure.

Clinton Power Station c-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Volume, vph Drop R-- Qs Vf R vc r iow,,Keginies; Free: Forced:! !-- -- --- ---Density, vpm-p Density, vpm kf kc Figure C-2. Fundamental Diagrams Distance jk OQ OM OE Qb L Mb Qe Me Y Down Up-* Time El E2 TI Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with tj > 0 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table C-3. Glossary The maximum number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that can discharge Cap from a link within a time interval.E The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the time interval.

The portion, ETI, can reach the stop-bar within the TI.The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn movement on a link.h The mean queue discharge headway, seconds.k Density in vehicles per lane per mile.The average density of moving vehicles of a particular movement over a TI, on a link.L The length of the link in feet.Lb , Le The queue length in feet of a particular movement, at the [beginning, end] of a time interval.The number of lanes, expressed as a floating point number, allocated to service a particular movement on a link.L, The mean effective length of a queued vehicle including the vehicle spacing, feet.M Metering factor (Multiplier):

1.The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are Mb , Me moving at the [beginning, end] of the time interval.

These vehicles are assumed to be of equal spacing, over the length of link upstream of the queue.The total number of vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged from a link over a time interval.The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged OQOM,0E, from a link within a time interval:

vehicles that were Queued at the beginning of the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;vehicles that Entered the link during the TI.The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that executes a particular turn movement, x.Clinton Power Station C-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The number of queued vehicles on the link, of a particular turn movement, at the Qb, Qe [beginning, end] of the time interval.The maximum flow rate that can be serviced by a link for a particular movement Qmax in the absence of a control device. It is specified by the analyst as an estimate of link capacity, based upon a field survey, with reference to the HCM.R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the "capacity drop" when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower capacity at that point is equal to RQmax.RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement after that queue has been completely serviced, within a time interval, expressed as vehicles.Sx Service rate for movement x, vehicles per hour (vph).tj Vehicles of a particular turn movement that enter a link over the first tj seconds of a time interval, can reach the stop-bar (in the absence of a queue down-stream) within the same time interval.TI The time interval, in seconds, which is used as the simulation time step.v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of moving vehicles on the link.VQ The mean speed of the last vehicle in a queue that discharges from the link within the TI. This speed differs from the mean speed of moving vehicles, v.W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link length which extends from stop-bar to stop-bar and the block length.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit problem for each sweep over the network (discussed below), for each turn movement serviced on each link that comprises the evacuation network, and for each TI over the duration of the evacuation.

Given= Qb, Mb, L, TI, Eo, LN, G/C , h, Lv, Ro, L, E, Compute = O,Qe,Me Define O=OQ+OM+OE

E=E 1+E 2 1. For the first sweep, s = 1, of this TI, get initial estimates of mean density, k 0 , the R -factor, R 0 and entering traffic, Eo, using the values computed for the final sweep of the prior TI.For each subsequent sweep, s > 1, calculate E = i Pi Oi + S where Pi , Oi are the relevant turn percentages from feeder link, i , and its total outflow (possibly metered) over this TI; S is the total source flow (possibly metered) during the current TI.Set iteration counter, n = 0, k = ko , and E = Eo .2. Calculate v (k) such that k _ 130 using the analytical representations of the fundamental diagram.Qmax (TI)Calculate Cap = 3600 (G/C) LN, in vehicles, this value may be reduced due to metering SetR= 1.0if G/C<1 orifk

kc; Set R= 0.9onlyifG/c=1 and k>k, Calculate queue length, Lb = Qb LtN 3. Calculate tj =TI-_ L If t 1-<0, sett 1=E 1=OE=0 ; Else, E 1=E-v T" 4. Then E 2=E-El ; t 2=TI-t 1 5. If Qb > Cap, then OQ = CapOM = OE = 0 If tj > 0,then Qe = Qb + Mb + E 1 -Cap Else Qe = Qb -Cap End if Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A (below)6. Else (Qb <Cap)OQ = Qb, RCap = Cap- OQ 7. If Mb _ RCap,then Clinton Power Station C-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

8. If t 1 > 0, 0 M = Mb, OE = min(RCap -Mb, t ICaP > 0 Q'e =E1 -O If Q'e > 0,then Calculate Qe, Me with Algorithm A Else Qe= 0, Me = E 2 End if Else (t, = 0)0M (v-T--Lb Mb and OE = 0 Me Mb-OM-I-E; Qe =0 End if 9. Else (Mb > RCap)OE= 0 If tl > 0, then OM=RCap, Q'e=Mb-OM+El Calculate Qe and Me using Algorithm A 10. Else (t, = 0)[(v(TI)-Lb Mb]Md K--\ L_---b ) MbI If Md > RCap, then 0 M = RCap Q/e = Md -OM Apply Algorithm A to calculate Qe and Me Else OM = Md Me= Mb-OM+E and QeO=End if End if End if End if 11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, kRn = [kb + 2 km + kel, where kb = density at the beginning of the TI ke = density at the end of the TI km = density at the mid-point of the TI All values of density apply only to the moving vehicles.if Ikn -kn-1 I > E and n < N where N = max number of iterations, and E is a convergence criterion, then Clinton Power Station C-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

12. set n = n + 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k = kn *End if Computation of unit problem is now complete.

Check for excessive inflow causing spillback.

13. If Q, + Me > (L-W) LN, then Lv The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB = Qe + Me (L-W) LN Lv where W is the width of the upstream intersection.

To prevent spillback, meter the outflow from the feeder approaches and from the source flow, S, during this TI by the amount, SB. That is, set SB M = 1 -> 0 ,where M is the metering factor (over all movements).

This metering factor is assigned appropriately to all feeder links and to the source flow, to be applied during the next network sweep, discussed later.Algorithm A This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can join a standing or discharging queue. For the case Qb QXe shown, Qb < Cap, with t, > 0 and a queue of Qe length, Q'e, formed by that portion of Mb and E that reaches the stop-bar within the TI, but could v/ + not discharge due to inadequate capacity.

That is, Mb Qb + Mb + E 1 > Cap. This queue length, v L3 Qe = Qb + Mb + El -Cap can be extended to Qe by traffic entering the approach during the current t3 TI, traveling at speed, v, and reaching the rear of the ti _J queue within the TI. A portion of the entering TI vhices, 3 = t3 Tvehicles, E3 = E will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates t 3 ,Qe and Me for the input values of L, TI, v, E, t, Lv, LN, Qe *When t 1 > 0 and Qb -- Cap: Lv Lv Define: L'e = Q'e .From the sketch, L 3 = v(TI-t -t 3) = L -(Qe + E 3) L v e LN e LN Substituting E 3 = L3 E yields: -Vt 3 + T E L = L -v(TI -t1) -U, .Recognizing that TI TI LN the first two terms on the right hand side cancel, solve for t 3 to obtain: Clinton Power Station C-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 t3 [E L ]L suchthat 0 __t 3 __TI-tj If the denominator, [v --<jv-] 0, set t 3 = TI -tj.Then, Qe=Q'e+Ee

+ --! Me=E 1 -tl +t 3 The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its inclusion, here.C.1.3 Lane Assignment The "unit problem" is solved for each turn movement on each link. Therefore it is necessary to calculate a value, LNx, of allocated lanes for each movement, x. If in fact all lanes are specified by, say, arrows painted on the pavement, either as full lanes or as lanes within a turn bay, then the problem is fully defined. If however there remain un-channelized lanes on a link, then an analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement specific virtual lanes, LNx.C.2 Implementation C.2.1 Computational Procedure The computational procedure for this model is shown in the form of a flow diagram as Figure C-4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link independently over TI that the analyst specifies; it is usually 60 seconds or longer. The first step is to execute an algorithm to define the sequence in which the network links are processed so that as many links as possible are processed after their feeder links are processed, within the same network sweep. Since a general network will have many closed loops, it is not possible to guarantee that every link processed will have all of its feeder links processed earlier.The processing then continues as a succession of time steps of duration, TI, until the simulation is completed.

Within each time step, the processing performs a series of "sweeps" over all network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire network. Specifically, the sweep ensures continuity of flow among all the network links; in the context of this model, this means that the values of E, M, and S are all defined for each link such that they represent the synchronous movement of traffic from each link to all of its outbound links. These sweeps also serve to compute the metering rates that control spillback.

Within each sweep, processing solves the "unit problem" for each turn movement on each link.With the turn movement percentages for each link provided by the DTRAD model, an algorithm allocates the number of lanes to each movement serviced on each link. The timing at a signal, if Clinton Power Station c-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 any, applied at the downstream end of the link, is expressed as a G/C ratio, the signal timing needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the capability of representing, with macroscopic fidelity, the actions of actuated signals responding to the time-varying competing demands on the approaches to the intersection.

The solution of the unit problem yields the values of the number of vehicles, 0, that discharge from the link over the time interval and the number of vehicles that remain on the link at the end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:

Qe and Me. The procedure considers each movement separately (multi-piping).

After all network links are processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;metering rates, M; and source flows, S are defined so as to satisfy the "no spillback" condition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the following sweep.Experience has shown that the system converges (i.e. the values of E, M and S "settle down" for all network links) in just two sweeps if the network is entirely under-saturated or in four sweeps in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link uses the final values of E and M, of the prior TI). At the completion of the final sweep for a TI, the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn movement for output purposes.

It then prepares for the following time interval by defining the values of Qb and Mb for the start of the next TI as being those values of Qe and Me at the end of the prior TI. In this manner, the simulation model processes the traffic flow over time until the end of the run. Note that there is no space-discretization other than the specification of network links.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure C-4. Flow of Simulation Processing (See Glossary:

Table C-3)Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate C-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C.2.2 Interfacing with Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTRAD)The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. Thus, an algorithm was developed to identify an appropriate set of destination nodes for each origin based on its location and on the expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next.Figure B-1 depicts the interaction of the simulation model with the DTRAD model in the DYNEV II system. As indicated, DYNEV II performs a succession of DTRAD "sessions";

each such session computes the turn link percentages for each link that remain constant for the session duration,[To , T2], specified by the analyst. The end product is the assignment of traffic volumes from each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the network-wide cost function.

The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn percentages which represent this assignment of traffic.As indicated in Figure B-i, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the DTRAD cost function.

These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time, T 1--T 2 , which lies within the session duration, [T 0 ,T 2] .This "burn time", T, 1-0 , is selected by the analyst. For each DTRAD iteration, the simulation model computes the change in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to the origin time, To, and executes until it arrives at the end of the DTRAD session duration at time, T 2 .At this time the next DTA session is launched and the whole process repeats until the end of the DYNEV II run.Additional details are presented in Appendix B.Clinton Power Station C-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates.

The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1.Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.Step 1 The first activity was to obtain EPZ boundary information and create a GIS base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location.

The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ boundary.Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Transient, employment, and special facility data were obtained from Exelon, the offsite agencies and phone calls to individual facilities.

Step 3 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.Step 4 The results of a telephone survey of households within the EPZ were obtained from Exelon to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population.

This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.

Step 5 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software (see Section 1.3) developed by KLD. Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 3). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description.

Traffic signal timings were input accordingly.

The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.Clinton Power Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Step 6 The EPZ is subdivided into 8 Sub-areas.

Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of Sub-areas) that may be advised to evacuate, were developed.

The need for evacuation can occur over a range of time-of-day, day-of-week, seasonal and weather-related conditions.

Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.

Step 7 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.Step 8 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines.

DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified.

The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.

The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or replace these model-assigned destinations, based on professional judgment, after studying the topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 9 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined.

The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which operates on data produced by DYNEV II) and reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion.

This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions: " The results are satisfactory; or" The input stream must be modified accordingly.

Clinton Power Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 10 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.

These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation behavior.Step 11 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 10. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II System is again executed.Step 12 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis.

Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.Step 13 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated.

This process was automated through the UNITES user interface.

For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.Step 14 All evacuation cases are executed using the DYNEV II System to compute ETE. Once results are available, quality control procedures are used to assure the results are consistent, dynamic routing is reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks are addressed properly.Step 15 Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes are used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent Clinton Power Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.

Step 16 The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed.documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.

The results were then Step 17 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist (see Appendix N) was completed.

An appropriate report reference is provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.

D-4 KLD Engineering, p.c.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Step 1 4, Step 14 Use DYNEV-11 Average Speed Output to Compute ETE for Transit and Special Facility Routes Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX E Special Facility Data E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of March 2014, for special facilities, transient attractions and major employers that are located within the CLN EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, preschools/daycares, day camps, medical facilities, and correctional facilities.

Transient population data is included in the tables for recreational areas and lodging facilities.

Note vehicles (cars with boat trailers and RVs) that were discussed in Section 3 as being represented as 2 vehicles are represented as 1 vehicle in this appendix.

Employment data is included in the table for major employers.

Each table is grouped by county. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant. Maps of schools, preschools/daycares, day camps, medical facilities, major employers, recreational areas, lodging facilities, and correctional facilities are also provided.E-1 KID Engineering, p.c.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ 7 7.2 WSW Clinton Christian Academy 801 South Mulberry Street Clinton 29 7 7 7.8 WSW Clinton Junior High School 701 Illini Drive Clinton 449 56 7 7.8 WSW Clinton Senior High School 1200 IL-54 Clinton 582 73 7 6.3 WSW Douglas Elementary School 905 East Main Street Clinton 191 24 7 7.0 WSW Lincoln Elementary School 407 South Jackson Street Clinton 316 40 7 7.1 W Washington Elementary School 411 North Mulberry Street Clinton 183 23 7 6.4 W Webster Elementary School 612 North George Street Clinton 325 40 4 8.3 ESE DeLand-Weldon Elementary School 304 IL-10 DeLand 26 3 Table E-2. Preschools

/ Daycares within the EPZ 7 7.2 WSW Christ Lutheran Pre-School 701 South Mulberry Street Clinton 20 5 7 5.8 WSW Head Start- 1700 East Main Street Clinton 30 7 E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-3. Day Camps within the EPZ 6 1 10.5 I WSW I Little Galilee Christian Assembly Church Camp I 7539 Little Galilee Road I Clinton I 120 I I I Table E-4. Medical Facilities within the EPZ 7 5.8 WSW Allen Court (E. Main Street) 1650 East Main Street Clinton 8 8 5 3 0 Allen Court (N. Alexander 302 North Alexander 7 6.4 Street) Street Clinton 8 8 8 0 0 7 7.1 WSW Dr. John Warner Hospital 422 West White Street Clinton 25 6 2 4 0 7 7.6 WSW Hawthorne Inn 1 Park Lane West Clinton 27 26 24 2 0 7 7.6 WSW Manor Court 1 Park Lane West Clinton 131 120 30 90 0 Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-5. Major Employers within the EPZ 1 0.0 N Clinton Power Station 8401 Power Road Clinton 608 30.5% 185 1 5.1 NW Syngenta Seeds 12101 Thorps Road Clinton 50 30.5% 16 7 6.3 WSW Action Technology Co. 1060 IL-10 Clinton 70 30.5% 22 7 6.8 W Altorfer Inc. 9670 Tabor Road Clinton 50 30.5% 16 7 7.4 WSW Baum Auto 810 IL-54 Clinton 40 30.5% 13 7 7.8 WSW Clinton Junior High School 701 Illini Drive Clinton 56 30.5% 18 7 7.8 WSW Clinton Senior High School 1200 IL-54 Clinton 73 30.5% 23 7 7.1 WSW Dr. John Warner Hospital 422 West White Street Clinton 100 30.5% 31 7 6.1 WSW Human Resource Center East 10840 IL-10 Clinton 80 30.5% 25 7 6.7 WSW Marco NPK 201 East Benton Clinton 12 50.0%1 6 7 6.3 WSW McElroy Metal Mill Inc. 10490 IL-10 Clinton 35 30.5% 11 7 7.5 WSW Miller Container Corp. 10670 IL-10 Clinton 50 30.5% 16 7 6.5 WSW RR Donnelley 900 South Cain Street Clinton 80 30.5% 25 7 r fnl 'Zt.rir,,,rI r21 AI\l ,lnn rnrinrn XQ4 CO r tnn I A ) _o 2 11 According to data received from phone call to facility.E-4 KID Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-6. Recreational Areas within the EPZ 1 1.9 w Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Camp Quest IL-54 Clinton 75 33 1 3.1 S Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Lane Day Use SR-10 Clinton 16 7 1 2.5 ESE Clinton Lake State Recreation Area (Mascoutin) 7251 Ranger Road DeWitt 1,597 1 1.2 NNW Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Northfork Boat Access Northfork Road Clinton 87 393 1 3.6 N Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Northfork Canoe Access 16958 Swisher Hill Road Clinton 15 7 1 2.9 SSW Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Peninsula Day Use Overlook Point Road Clinton 49 22 1 3.7 SW Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Spillway Access 13625 IL-10 Clinton 103 46 1 4.5 E Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Weldon Boat Access 885 Road North Weldon 143 644 1 4.6 E Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Weldon Day Use 885 Road North Weldon 65 29 1 2.8 SW Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -West Side Boat Access CR 670 N Clinton 63 28s 1 2.7 WSW Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -West Side Day Use Boat Ramp Rd Clinton 92 41 1 3.2 SSW Green Acres Campground 15283 IL-10 Clinton 150 68 1 3.2 SSW South Shores Campground 15487 IL-la Clinton 63 28 1 0.7 NW Visitor Center -IL Dept. of Natural Resources IL-54 Clinton 150 68 3 6.2 ENE Clinton Lake Stata Recreation Area -Parnell Boat Access CR 2225 E Clinton 67 306 6 6.6 SW Arrowhead Acres 3315 Weldon Springs Road Clinton 300 135 6 8.4 SW Clinton Country Club Texas Church Road Clinton 90 41 6 6.0 SW Weldon Springs State Park 14734 Weldon Springs Road Clinton 420 1887 2 Vehicle breakdown:

380 passenger vehicles, 276 recreational vehicles, 60 vehicles with trailers, counted as 1,052 vehicles in simulation 3 Vehicle breakdown:38 passenger vehicles and 24 vehicles with trailers, counted as 63 vehicles in simulation 4 Vehicle breakdown:

64 vehicles with trailers, counted as 128 vehicles in simulation 5 Vehicle breakdown:

28 vehicles with trailers, counted as 56 vehicles in simulation 6Vehicle breakdown:

30 vehicles with trailers, counted as 60 vehicles in simulation 7 Vehicle breakdown:

140 passenger vehicles, 48 recreational vehicles, counted as 236 vehicles in simulation Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table E-7. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ 7 7.9 WSW Sunset Inn 11251 Kleeman Road Clinton I 91 46 7 7.6 WSW Town & Country Motel 1151 IL-54 Clinton 31 16 Table E-8. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ 7 1 V, I IAI I fl-~,if+ r--f-, IýiI I IMl %A/-,+ XAI-k--- C+.,--+ I Cri.,4,--

I Oc I On E-6 KID Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-1. Schools within the CLN EPZ Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.E-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-2. Preschools

/ Daycares within the CLN EPZ E-8 KID Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-3. Day Camps within the CLN EPZ E-9 KID Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-4. Medical Facilities within the CLN EPZ E-1O KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-5. Major Employers within the CLN EPZ Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Clinton Power Evacuation Timr Le..M p FMacIIty Naie SLe RI M .Arrowhead Acres r..J /. Y_ 2 Clinton Country Club 3 Clinton Lake Marina 4 Clinton Lake Stata Recreation Area -Parnell Boat Access 5 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Camp Quest 6_-_ 6 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Lane Day Use___Sub-area:

2 ------- 7 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Northfork Boat Access 8 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Northfork Canoe Access Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Peninsula Day Use Sub-area:

8 10 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -SpillwayAccess 1 1 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area Weldon Boat Access 1 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -Weldon Day UseClinton Lake State Recreation Area -West Side Boat Access B 14 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area -West Side Day Use/ 15 Clinton Lake State Recreation Area (Mascoutln)

Sub-a -3 17 South Shores Campground Sub-area:

18 Visitor Center -IL Dept. ofNat. Resources Sub-area:

7 \_I 8*~ 4i!I/ Weldn 12P end 2064 -13 9 uSub-aria:/

4='ItQ Legend Sub-area:

6P 40 CLN/

[,Sub-area:

5 Golf De ..........

....................

/Marina /Boat Access t Mnnt~elloMile Rings 2, 5, 10 010Mie nea, ~Argenta Miles__________________

$LOnef. __ ,,n.. 44 Station ne Estimate Figure E-6. Recreational Areas within the CLN EPZ E-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Clinton Power *Evacuation Tim Figure E-7. Lodging Facilities within the CLN EPZ E-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure E-8. Correctional Facilities within the CLN EPZ E-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX F Telephone Survey F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the CLN EPZ requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ.Demographic information can be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning.

First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area. Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ and consequently may not accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.These concerns are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population.

The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ...?")Attachment A presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A sample size of 373 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-5% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population.

The preliminary determination of whether a household was located inside the EPZ was based on "land-line" telephone listings with street addresses.

Telephone surveys were then conducted using those numbers, selected in random order, until the target level of surveys was completed, or the entire calling list was exhausted.

Rejections or households outside the EPZ were discarded.

Numbers with "no answer" were re-cycled for up to ten attempts in different time windows.F.2 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories.

First, the household demographics of the area can be identified.

Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability.

The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or"refused" entry for a response.

It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions.

To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses.

In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.Clinton Nuclear Station F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 F.2.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household contains 2.23 people.-Household Size 03 0 0 50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%5% E 2 4 5 6+1 2 3 People 4 5 6+Figure F-1. Household Size in the EPZ Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 1.89. 5.4% of households do not have a vehicle available, as shown in Figure F-2.Vehicle Availability I 4A M 0 03 0 4-4.50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%I 0 1 2 Vehicles 3 4 5+Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability Clinton Nuclear Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Commuters Figure F-3 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.

Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.The data shows an average of 0.88 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 53% of households have at least one commuter.Commuters Per Household fA-u 0 LA 0'0 U 50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%0 1 2 Commuters 34 4 Figure F-3. Commuters in Households in the EPZ F-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Nuclear Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2.2 Evacuation Response Questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency.

These are now discussed: "How many vehicles would your household take if an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home??" The response is shown in Figure F-4. On average, evacuating households would use 1.25 vehicles.Evacuating Vehicles Per Household IA 03 0 90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1 2 Vehicles 3 4 Figure F-4. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Clinton Nuclear Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "If an evacuation notice were given while [the primary commuter]

was at work, do you think they would most likely..." The response is shown in Figure F-5. Of the survey participants who responded, 31 percent indicated they would evacuate from work, 51 percent said they would return home first and then evacuate, and 18 percent indicated that they would stay outside the evacuation zone where they work.Commuter Evacuation Response 60%_A 50%0 w 40%0" 30% -0' 20%0. 1fl 0 4 i 10%Evacuate from Work Return Home Stay outside Evacuation Zone Figure F-5. Commuter Evacuation Response Clinton Nuclear Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 F.2.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities.

These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.

The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization."How long do you think it would take [the primary commuter]

to get prepared and actually leave work?" Figure F-6 presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed within 75 minutes. 94 percent can leave within 30 minutes.Time to Prepare to Leave Work 4.E-E E 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 75 Preparation Time (min)Figure F-6. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work Clinton Nuclear Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "About how long does it take [the primary commuter]

to getfrom work to home?" Figure F-7 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. Approximately 88 percent of commuters can arrive home within 30 minutes of leaving work; all within 75 minutes.Work to Home Travel E E 0 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 75 Travel Time (min)Figure F-7. Work to Home Travel Time Clinton Nuclear Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "If an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home (for example, at night or on a weekend), approximately how long would it take your household to prepare to depart? Please assume that you are advised to plan to be away from your home for 3 days." Figure F-8 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.

Approximately 78 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 40 minutes; the remaining households require up to an additional 80 minutes.Preparation Time with Everyone Home 100%VA 03 80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 Preparation Time (min)120 Figure F-8. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation The survey conducted in support of this study did not ask residents how long it would take them to remove snow from their driveway if there were snow on the ground when an evacuation was ordered. As discussed in Section 5.3, the response to the snow removal question in a survey conducted in 2012 in support of ETE development for the Duane Arnold Energy Center (DAEC) is adapted for this study. DAEC is located in Iowa, approximately 200 miles northwest of CLN. Average snowfall in Cedar Rapids, Iowa (within the DAEC EPZ) is about 35% higher than in cities within the CLN EPZ. It is conservatively assumed that snow removal time in the CLN EPZ is comparable to snow removal time in the DAEC EPZ.Clinton Nuclear Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 "How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?" During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street. Figure F-9 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway.

The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 96 percent of driveways are passable within 60 minutes. The last driveway is cleared two hours after the start of this activity.

Note that those respondents (46%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity.

Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.Time to Remove Snow from Driveway IA 0 04 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 Time (min)75 90 105 120 Figure F-9. Time to Clear Driveway of 6V-8" of Snow F.3 Conclusions The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time" which can influence evacuation time estimates.

Clinton Nuclear Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 ATTACHMENT A Telephone Survey Instrument Clinton Nuclear Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-Cn KLD Engineering, P.C.Rpv. 0 Telephone Survey Instrument Exelon Survey Final v6 -August 23, 2011 INTRODUCTION Hello, my name is and I am calling fiom MDC Research, a public opinion firm. We are conducting a brief survey to gather information from households in your area about emergency response planning, and we'd like to include your opinions.

This survey is being conducted on behalf of the (insert facility name) Nuclear Facility, and will take approximately 5 minutes to complete.

We are not trying to sell you anything.

The information gathered from this survey will help local agencies more effectively provide community assistance should an emergency situation arise.Can I please speak with an adult member of the household?

SCREENER S 1. What is the zip code of your primary residence?

This is the home where you live the majority of the time. DO NOT READ ZIP CODE LIST List of appropriate zip codes will be displayed here 99999 Location outside the EPZ -THANK & TERMINATE S2. Which of the following categories best describes your age?11 Under 18 yrs of age -ASK FOR REFERRAL or THANK & TERMINATE 12 18 to 24 13 25 to 34 14 35 to 44 15 45 to 54 16 55 to 64 17 65 to 74 18 75 or older 98 (DO NOT READ) Refused QUESTIONNAIRE Q I How many people currently reside in your household?

Record: # of residents 98 (DO NOT READ) Refused -THANK & TERMINATE Q2 How many motor vehicles are normally based at your home?Record: # of vehicles 997 None -SKIP TO Q14 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Clinton Nuclear Station F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q3 How many members of your household are over the age of 16?Record: # of residents 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q4 How many members of your household are licensed drivers?Record: # of drivers 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q5 How many of the adults in your household work outside the home?Record D Skip to Q6A 997 None -Continue to Q5A 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused If refused, explain; The nature of this project is to estimate traffic volumes and flow in the event of an emergency evacuation, so this data is necessary in order for us to continue with the survey.If still refused -THANK & TERMINATE Q5A (ONLY ASK IF Q5=997) Which of the following best describes the non-working adults in your household?

MULTIPLE MENTION -IP NOTE: No more mentions than Q3 mentions.11 Currently unemployed/actively looking for work 12 Retired 13 On Disability or leave of absence 14 Student/continuing education 15 Homemaker 99 Other -please specify SKIP TO Q1l Repeat the following Q6A-F sequence for each working adult cited in Q5 For each of the working adults you just referenced, I'd like to ask a few questions related to what their likely actions would be in the case of an emergency evacuation.

I understand that I will be asking you to speculate on what other members of the household may do in this situation, but your best guesses are just fine for our purposes.Q6A Who is the first working adult in the household that you are thinking about? What is their relationship to you?I Self 2 Spouse or significant other 3 Parent of child 4 Other relative or in-law 5 Roommate 6 Boarder 7 Other Clinton Nuclear Station F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q6B Which of the following best describes this person's usual work schedule?1 Monday -Friday, 8:00am to 5:00pm 2 Swing Shift 3 Graveyard 4 Evenings and weekends 5 Rotating shifts 6 Other or irregular schedule 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q6C Does this person generally use a personal vehicle to commute back and forth to work?1 Yes 2 No 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q6D If an evacuation notice were given while this person was at work, do you think they would most likely...I Evacuate directly from work 2 Come home first and then evacuate, or 3 Stay outside the evacuation zone where they work E Skip to Q7 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q6E How long do you think it would take this person to get prepared and actually leave work?(Read list if necessary)

I Less than 15 minutes 2 15 to 30 minutes 3 30 to 45 minutes 4 45 to 60 minutes 5 More than 60 minutes 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know If response at 6D is 1, skip from here to Q7 Q6F About how long does it take this household member to get from work to home?(Read list if necessary) 1 Less than 15 minutes 2 15 to 30 minutes 3 30 to 45 minutes 4 45 to 60 minutes 5 More than 60 minutes 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q7A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #2 Q8A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #3 Q9A-F Repeat Q6 sequence for worker #4 Clinton Nuclear Station F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Q10 And once everyone who is coming home from work has arrived, how long would it take to prepare and depart from home, taking into consideration whether or not someone else is usually home who may be starting these preparation while they are travelling?

1 Less than 15 minutes 2 15 to 30 minutes 3 30 to 45 minutes 4 45 to 60 minutes 5 More than 60 minutes 7 (DO NOT READ) Don't know Q 11 Are any of the licensed drivers in your household restricted to daytime driving only?1 Yes 2 No 9 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q12 If an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home (for example, at night or on a weekend), approximately how long would it take your household to prepare to depart? Please assume that you are advised to plan to be away from your home for 3 days. Would you say that it would take... READ LIST I Less than 20 minutes to depart 2 20 to 40 minutes to depart 3 40 to 60 minutes to depart 4 60 to 90 minutes to depart; or 5 More than 90 minutes to depart Q 13 How many vehicles would your household take if an evacuation were ordered when all household members were at home?Record: # of vehicles 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q14 Are any members of your household seasonal residents?

And by seasonal we mean any people who do not reside in your home the majority of the year.1 Yes 2 No -SKIP TO Q15 9 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q14A (ASK IF Q14=1) How many of your <insert QI response>

household members are seasonal?Record: # of seasonal household members 998 (DO NOT READ) Refused Q14B (ASK IF Q14=-1) What seasons do they live in another location away from your home?READ LIST -Multiple Mention 1 Spring 2 Summer 3 Fall Clinton Nuclear Station F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 4 Winter Q 15 Would any member of your household require a specialized vehicle, such as a wheelchair, van or ambulance, to evacuate from your home in case of an emergency?

1 Yes 2 No 9 (DO NOT READ) Refused This is all the questions we have for you today/tonight.

Thank you for participating in this survey. Your responses will help us to make an accurate prediction of traffic conditions during an emergency situation.

If you have any questions about this survey, please feel free to contact<insert contact name, job title, and phone number/email>.

Clinton Nuclear Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 APPENDIX G Traffic Management Plan G. TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation simulation modeling.

The traffic and access control plans for the EPZ were provided by the Illinois Emergency Management Agency.These plans were reviewed and the TCPs and ACPs were modeled accordingly.

G.1 Traffic Control Points As discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) are modeled as actuated signals. If an intersection has a pre-timed signal, stop, or yield control, and the intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system. Table K-2 provides the control type and node number for those nodes which are controlled.

If the existing control was changed due to the point being a TCP, the control type is indicated as "TCP -Actuated" or "TCP -Uncontrolled" in Table K-2.The TCPs and ACPs within the study area are mapped in Figure G-1.As discussed in Section 9, this study did not identify any additional intersections as TCPs. The existing state traffic management plan is comprehensive and does not require revision.G.2 Access Control Points It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> of the advisory to evacuate to discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the study area.As discussed in Section 3.6, external traffic was considered on the major routes which traverse the study area 72 and 1-74 -in this study. The generation of the external trips ceases at 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the advisory to evacuate in the simulation due to the ACPs.As shown in Figure G-1, the TCPs and ACPs identified in the state emergency plan are concentrated along major evacuation routes and on roadways giving access to the EPZ. These TCPs and ACPs would be manned during evacuation by traffic guides who would direct evacuees in the proper direction away from the plant and facilitate the flow of traffic through the intersections.

Detailed descriptions of each of the TCPs and ACPs and the actions to be taken by traffic guides at these intersections are provided in the state plan. These actions were modeled explicitly in the DYNEV II system. For additional information, refer to the state plan, Appendix B, the "Traffic and Access Control Guide." As discussed in Section 9, this study did not identify any additional intersections as ACPs. The existing state traffic management plan is comprehensive in terms of discouraging traffic from entering the EPZ.Clinton Power Station G-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0

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Sl._41 -L9L 5E 0.1.;41 0 -0~~44.01014d N-4 -..I I n n 17 I 5 10 1 Miles L5 Figure G-1. Traffic and Access Control Points for the Clinton Power Station Clinton Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate G-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0